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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Can anyone point to the part of the GFA that forbids customs checks, either absolutely or at the border?
    Customs border not mentioned, but it was and is implicitly in the whole atmosphere that finally delivered peace.
    I don’t think anyone is arguing cooperation will end, just an additional bit of paperwork when sending goods.
    Where is the democratic mandate in Northern Ireland to impose this additional border friction?
    The 2016 EU referendum
    Nope.

    Leave: 349,442 (44.2%)
    Remain: 470,707 (55.8%)
    I assume your quoting NI figures. It was a UK wide ref with a million majority for leave
    This is the policy of the British government, which precludes a GB vote from determining the relationship between NI and Ireland:

    "The British Government agree that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively, to exercise their right of self-determination on the basis of consent, freely and concurrently given, North and South, to bring about a united Ireland, if that is their wish. They reaffirm as a binding obligation that they will, for their part, introduce the necessary legislation to give effect to this, or equally to any measure of agreement on future relationships in Ireland which the people living in Ireland may themselves freely so determine without external impediment."

    The people of Northern Ireland did not give consent to be taken out of the single market and customs union. Any form of Brexit that seeks to impose this on them is unacceptable and shames the UK.
    Your interpretation has not been upheld by the Courts. Claims that Brexit breaches the GFA have been rejected.

    Logically, it would follow from your argument, that if the Irish Republic voted to leave the EU, Northern Ireland would also be required to do so, even if the rest of the UK wished to remain.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Byronic said:

    The Australians are a hard team to like.

    They used to be likeable to a certain extent when players like Shane Warne, Merv Hughes, David Boon were in the team. But now none of them are.
  • Good job england bat deep....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2019
    Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815

    kjh said:

    Tabman said:

    kjh said:

    Its

    Ws.

    Liberalism is this, and the antithesis of socialism
    Fine. Like you I like free markets, a lack of government intervention and a small state.
    But, what about the need to prevent exploitation. You cannot educate people to avoid them being exploited or abused. And that means state interference.
    I came to the old Liberal Party because I didn't like the way the Labour Party was (then) controlled by the block vote of the trade unions. I stayed with the LibDems at least partly out of habit and because I found people like Charlie Kennedy worth following. ' Blairite social democracy I find appealing, although Iraq 'did it' for me.
    I agree re exploitation and abuse. However I do find this tends to be poorly done by both Socialist and Conservatives. Take the controls over energy prices by the Tories. To me that is socialism and not free markets. There is usually a very clear difference between fair competition and rip offs (and it did happen here). I think we can all identify rip offs that are aimed at exploiting the vulnerable. I do not believe is beyond the wit of parliament to be able legislate for that in general rather than specifically. Currently rip offs continue for years, a law/rule is eventually implemented to control that and in the process stifle fair competition and the rip off merchants move to the next scam/loop hole and we have more legislation on the books.
    Point taken. Agree that protection is done poorly. Trouble is the robbers will always be one step ahead of the police.
    Annoyingly I was going to in include that in my list, but thought I was rambling to much anyway. I should have done. It is something I thought about a lot. I would like to see a general law with both civil and criminal consequences depending upon the nature of the rip off. The criminal ones are obvious. The commercial ones (several of which I have been involved in campaigns on) included opening new high rate savings accounts identical to existing accounts and dropping the interest rate on the original a/c (now controlled), The exploitation 08xx telephone numbers (now control thanks to EU) and the gas/electricty scam of reverting to high standard rates at end of term. I was heavily involved in the campaigns of the 1st two. The actions of the providers were clearly designed to exploit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    No. It doesn't say anything about politics without a comma after honeymoon.
    BJ on honeymoon? Not in Wales
    I thought life was one long honeymoon for him. When he was finished with the one with one partner, he moved on to another!
    Are there any other countries that would take him?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    The Australians are a hard team to like.

    They used to be likeable to a certain extent when players like Shane Warne, Merv Hughes, David Boon were in the team. But now none of them are.
    Yes. They were always hard sportsmen, prepared to test the rules to breaking point, but they did it with a laconic charm, and they had great great talents (like Warne)

    Now. hmm. There's much less personality and much more "professionalism". Not very attractive,
  • TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Can anyone point to the part of the GFA that forbids customs checks, either absolutely or at the border?
    No they can't because the existence of a border, hard or soft, is not mentioned once in the whole GFA. The only mention of the border is with regard to cross-border institutions. As such the GFA explicitly recognises that a border exists but has nothing at all to say about what form it should or should not take. Powell is another fuckwit using the threat of a return to the Troubles as blackmail to argue against Brexit.
    It says it should take the form of cooperation as members of the EU.

    "Wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples and the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union"

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/136652/agreement.pdf
    So like I said no mention of borders at all then.

    And if it is the case that that sentence means we are unable to leave the EU ever because membership of the EU is defined within the GFA then Lilico is right and the GFA is dead.
    I've yet to hear one reason why the Irish can have a border they desire for Corporation Tax, a border they desire for VAT, a border they desire for Income Tax, a border they desire for Abortion, but a border for customs duties is beyond the pale?

    The border already exists. The Irish are against harmonising taxes.
    For you, and Tyndall, as with Rob. There is sadly no way to be able to make a comment on Northern Ireland without understanding the history and context.

    On the page everything seems pretty straightforward but it is far more complicated and nuanced.

    As a start understanding that there are customs borders not to check that people are compliant but to catch those who are not compliant is a big step forward for you guys.

    I understand the history and social background of Ireland just as well as you do if not better you arrogant prick.
  • Warne aside i am not sure the likes of the waugh brothers and glenn mcgarth were known for their charm and on field personality.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Can anyone point to the part of the GFA that forbids customs checks, either absolutely or at the border?
    Customs border not mentioned, but it was and is implicitly in the whole atmosphere that finally delivered peace.
    I don’t think anyone is arguing cooperation will end, just an additional bit of paperwork when sending goods.
    Where is the democratic mandate in Northern Ireland to impose this additional border friction?
    The 2016 EU referendum
    Nope.

    Leave: 349,442 (44.2%)
    Remain: 470,707 (55.8%)
    I assume your quoting NI figures. It was a UK wide ref with a million majority for leave
    "The British Government agree that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively, to exercise their right of self-may themselves freely so determine without external impediment."

    The people of Northern Ireland did not give consent to be taken out of the single market and customs union. Any form of Brexit that seeks to impose this on them is unacceptable and shames the UK.
    Wow damning quote (from presumably the now obsolete GFA)

    I guess we're remaining then.

    And the theory that it is impossible to leave the EU remains intact.
    I strongly suspect that if there was a referendum on the unification with the electorate of UK (inc NI) and the RoI able to vote, reunification would win by a considerable distance.
    reunification of what ?
    The reunification of the island of Ireland.
    Okay - it would hardly be a democratic vote though would it. NI wants to be British and I think we should let them be that.
    But core to being British is not making a song and dance about it. Yet all these various people across the seas who want to be British seem to forget the no singing and dancing bit.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Tabman said:

    kjh said:

    Its

    Ws.

    Liberalism is this, and the antithesis of socialism
    Fine. Like you I like free markets, a lack of government intervention and a small state.
    But, what about the need to prevent exploitation. You cannot educate people to avoid them being exploited or abused. And that means state interference.
    I came to the old Liberal Party because I didn't like the way the Labour Party was (then) controlled by the block vote of the trade unions. I stayed with the LibDems at least partly out of habit and because I found people like Charlie Kennedy worth following. ' Blairite social democracy I find appealing, although Iraq 'did it' for me.
    I agree re exploitation and abuse. However I do find this tends to be poorly done by both Socialist and Conservatives. Take the controls over energy prices by the Tories. To me that is socialism and not free markets. There is usually a very clear difference between fair competition and rip offs (and it did happen here). I think we can all identify rip offs that are aimed at exploiting the vulnerable. I do not believe is beyond the wit of parliament to be able legislate for that in general rather than specifically. Currently rip offs continue for years, a law/rule is eventually implemented to control that and in the process stifle fair competition and the rip off merchants move to the next scam/loop hole and we have more legislation on the books.
    Point taken. Agree that protection is done poorly. Trouble is the robbers will always be one step ahead of the police.
    Annoyingly I was going to in include that in my list, but thought I was rambling to much anyway. I should have done. It is something I thought about a lot. I would like to see a general law with both civil and criminal consequences depending upon the nature of the rip off. The criminal ones are obvious. The commercial ones (several of which I have been involved in campaigns on) included opening new high rate savings accounts identical to existing accounts and dropping the interest rate on the original a/c (now controlled), The exploitation 08xx telephone numbers (now control thanks to EU) and the gas/electricty scam of reverting to high standard rates at end of term. I was heavily involved in the campaigns of the 1st two. The actions of the providers were clearly designed to exploit.
    kjh here - Bugger messed up quotes yet again. Sorry OldKingCole.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited August 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.

    Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.
  • Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    AndyJS said:

    Don't want to blow my own trumpet but I won the prediction competition on the VoteUK discussion forum for forecasting the result of the Brecon & Radnor by-election. There were about 20 entries altogether. My prediction was LD 45, Con 37, BRX 11, Lab 5.5, Others 1.5.

    This is not the time for soundbites.....
  • AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    The Australians are a hard team to like.

    They used to be likeable to a certain extent when players like Shane Warne, Merv Hughes, David Boon were in the team. But now none of them are.
    Merv Hughes? He kept on calling England batsmen arsewipe and other really bad language after every delivery.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited August 2019

    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    The Australians are a hard team to like.

    They used to be likeable to a certain extent when players like Shane Warne, Merv Hughes, David Boon were in the team. But now none of them are.
    Merv Hughes? He kept on calling England batsmen arsewipe and other really bad language after every delivery.
    And before him, lillee and thompson....good job no stump mics at that time!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Tabman said:

    kjh said:

    Its

    Ws.

    Liberalism is this, and the antithesis of socialism
    Fine. Like you I like free markets, a lack of government intervention and a small state.
    But, what about the need to prevent exploitation. You cannot educate people to avoid them being exploited or abused. And that means state interference.
    I came to the old Liberal Party because I didn't like the way the Labour Party was (then) controlled by the block vote of the trade unions. I stayed with the LibDems at least partly out of habit and because I found people like Charlie Kennedy worth following. ' Blairite social democracy I find appealing, although Iraq 'did it' for me.
    Currently rip offs continue for years, a law/rule is eventually implemented to control that and in the process stifle fair competition and the rip off merchants move to the next scam/loop hole and we have more legislation on the books.
    Point taken. Agree that protection is done poorly. Trouble is the robbers will always be one step ahead of the police.
    Annoyingly I was going to in include that in my list, but thought I was rambling to much anyway. I should have done. It is something I thought about a lot. I would like to see a general law with both civil and criminal consequences depending upon the nature of the rip off. The criminal ones are obvious. The commercial ones (several of which I have been involved in campaigns on) included opening new high rate savings accounts identical to existing accounts and dropping the interest rate on the original a/c (now controlled), The exploitation 08xx telephone numbers (now control thanks to EU) and the gas/electricty scam of reverting to high standard rates at end of term. I was heavily involved in the campaigns of the 1st two. The actions of the providers were clearly designed to exploit.
    kjh here - Bugger messed up quotes yet again. Sorry OldKingCole.
    LOL. I did have a bit of a double look! No worries. It's happened to me more than once!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Can anyone point to the part of the GFA that forbids customs checks, either absolutely or at the border?
    Naughty Rob and tbh to keep making the point you think you are making betrays a deep misunderstanding of the history and current situation of Northern Ireland.

    No shame in not knowing its history but you are making a bit of a fool of yourself by not giving up this line.
    I am a permanent resident of the naughty step. :)

    Still waiting to hear how the backstop solves the only piece of the GFA that has been quoted stating that UK and Ireland must cooperate as members of the European Union.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Tabman said:

    kjh said:

    Its

    Ws.

    Liberalism is this, and the antithesis of socialism
    Fine. Like you I like free markets, a lack of government intervention and a small state.
    But, what about the need to prevent exploitation. You cannot educate people to avoid them being exploited or abused. And that means state interference.
    I came to the old Liberal Party because I didn't like the way the Labour Party was (then) controlled by the block vote of the trade unions. I stayed with the LibDems at least partly out of habit and because I found people like Charlie Kennedy worth following. ' Blairite social democracy I find appealing, although Iraq 'did it' for me.
    Currently rip offs continue for years, a law/rule is eventually implemented to control that and in the process stifle fair competition and the rip off merchants move to the next scam/loop hole and we have more legislation on the books.
    Point taken. Agree that protection is done poorly. Trouble is the robbers will always be one step ahead of the police.
    Annoyingly I was going to in include that in my list, but thought I was rambling to much anyway. I should have done. It is something I thought about a lot. I would like to see a general law with both civil and criminal consequences depending upon the nature of the rip off. The criminal ones are obvious. The commercial ones (several of which I have been involved in campaigns on) included opening new high rate savings accounts identical to existing accounts and dropping the interest rate on the original a/c (now controlled), The exploitation 08xx telephone numbers (now control thanks to EU) and the gas/electricty scam of reverting to high standard rates at end of term. I was heavily involved in the campaigns of the 1st two. The actions of the providers were clearly designed to exploit.
    kjh here - Bugger messed up quotes yet again. Sorry OldKingCole.
    LOL. I did have a bit of a double look! No worries. It's happened to me more than once!
    One-all!
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    TOPPING said:

    Maybe but I can't see a Labour government implementing Marxist policies.

    Well, one can quibble about definitions, but nationalisation without proper compensation goes a long way down the route to Marxism.
    Maybe ,however to me getting rid of the house of lords, replacing with an elected second chamber.PR for elected MPs and councils.Elected Head of state, would be radical.
    A manifesto which said nationalise the railways , when the franchise expires is a bit tame.
    One of the current proposals is to go back to the bad old days when all Council services were supplied in-house, and actually making it illegal for local councils to seek best value. By any measure that is extreme as well as bonkers; I'm not sure it's 'radical' as such, given that it is throwing away four decades of progress which has been imitated throughout the world. It's more like discredited old-style stuff from the 'sick man of Europe' sixties.
    One has to be careful regarding proposals
    As George Monbiot said, when he put ideas into the Labour Party regarding land ownership etc.
    Many of the ideas were presented by the right wing media as Labour policy, when in fact they were up for discussion.
  • IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Can anyone point to the part of the GFA that forbids customs checks, either absolutely or at the border?
    Customs border not mentioned, but it was and is implicitly in the whole atmosphere that finally delivered peace.
    I don’t think anyone is arguing cooperation will end, just an additional bit of paperwork when sending goods.
    Where is the democratic mandate in Northern Ireland to impose this additional border friction?
    The 2016 EU referendum
    Nope.

    Leave: 349,442 (44.2%)
    Remain: 470,707 (55.8%)
    I assume your quoting NI figures. It was a UK wide ref with a million majority for leave
    "The British Government agree that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively, to exercise their right of self-may themselves freely so determine without external impediment."

    The people of Northern Ireland did not give consent to be taken out of the single market and customs union. Any form of Brexit that seeks to impose this on them is unacceptable and shames the UK.
    Wow damning quote (from presumably the now obsolete GFA)

    I guess we're remaining then.

    And the theory that it is impossible to leave the EU remains intact.
    I strongly suspect that if there was a referendum on the unification with the electorate of UK (inc NI) and the RoI able to vote, reunification would win by a considerable distance.
    reunification of what ?
    The reunification of the island of Ireland.
    Okay - it would hardly be a democratic vote though would it. NI wants to be British and I think we should let them be that.
    But core to being British is not making a song and dance about it. Yet all these various people across the seas who want to be British seem to forget the no singing and dancing bit.
    We can forgive them for their eccentricities
  • Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    TOPPING said:

    Maybe but I can't see a Labour government implementing Marxist policies.

    Well, one can quibble about definitions, but nationalisation without proper compensation goes a long way down the route to Marxism.
    Maybe ,however to me getting rid of the house of lords, replacing with an elected second chamber.PR for elected MPs and councils.Elected Head of state, would be radical.
    A manifesto which said nationalise the railways , when the franchise expires is a bit tame.
    One of the current proposals is to go back to the bad old days when all Council services were supplied in-house, and actually making it illegal for local councils to seek best value. By any measure that is extreme as well as bonkers; I'm not sure it's 'radical' as such, given that it is throwing away four decades of progress which has been imitated throughout the world. It's more like discredited old-style stuff from the 'sick man of Europe' sixties.
    One has to be careful regarding proposals
    As George Monbiot said, when he put ideas into the Labour Party regarding land ownership etc.
    Many of the ideas were presented by the right wing media as Labour policy, when in fact they were up for discussion.
    Quite right...by the time mcdonnell puts his marxist idealogy on them they will be even more extreme.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Tabman said:

    kjh said:

    Its

    Ws.

    Liberalism is this, and the antithesis of socialism
    Fine. Like you I like free markets, a lack of government intervention and a small state.
    But, what about the need to prevent exploitation. You cannot educate people to avoid them being exploited or abused. And that means state interference.
    I came to the old Liberal Party because I didn't like the way the Labour Party was (then) controlled by the block vote of the trade unions. I stayed with the LibDems at least partly out of habit and because I found people like Charlie Kennedy worth following. ' Blairite social democracy I find appealing, although Iraq 'did it' for me.
    I agree re exploitation and abuse. However I do find this tends to be poorly done by both Socialist and Conservatives. Take the controls over energy prices by the Tories. To me that is socialism and not free markets. There is usually a very clear difference between fair competition and rip offs (and it did happen here). I think we can all identify rip offs that are aimed at exploiting the vulnerable. I do not believe is beyond the wit of parliament to be able legislate for that in general rather than specifically. Currently rip offs continue for years, a law/rule is eventually implemented to control that and in the process stifle fair competition and the rip off merchants move to the next scam/loop hole and we have more legislation on the books.
    Point taken. Agree that protection is done poorly. Trouble is the robbers will always be one step ahead of the police.
    Annoyingly I was going to in include that in my list, but thought I was rambling to much anyway. I should have done. It is something I thought about a lot. I would like to see a general law with both civil and criminal consequences depending upon the nature of the rip off. The criminal ones are obvious. The commercial ones (several of which I have been involved in campaigns on) included opening new high rate savings accounts identical to existing accounts and dropping the interest rate on the original a/c (now controlled), The exploitation 08xx telephone numbers (now control thanks to EU) and the gas/electricty scam of reverting to high standard rates at end of term. I was heavily involved in the campaigns of the 1st two. The actions of the providers were clearly designed to exploit.
    kjh here - Bugger messed up quotes yet again. Sorry OldKingCole.
    Looks like we agree.
  • I might do a thread on AV this weekend.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1157301363837194241

    Doesn't think much of the 'will of the people' then? Or would he prefer some sort of Proportional Representation?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Joff Says: "Currently, though, Pidcock and Long Bailey are largely invisible to all but the most committed of members. It will take time for that to change. Were one of them to go up against Cooper, Thornberry or Nandy now (and it would only be one given the nomination process) the chances are she would lose."

    This is not how I read the situation. The Labour membership was, as we know, infiltrated by socialists to select Corbyn. A proportion of members have left over last couple of years - I assume these to be centrists - therefore, the Labour Party is more captured than ever by the hard left.

    Any hard left candidate (man or women) would win more handsomely than Corbyn did. It will be whoever Corbyn anoints.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Scott_P said:
    Hmmmm:

    Lione IRA Lauren

    And we're expected to take his views seriously.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 931
    Corbyn: not what I hear, watch the Labour conference, especially if they have just lost Hallam by a landslide.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited August 2019
    If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.

    The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night
  • rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Can anyone point to the part of the GFA that forbids customs checks, either absolutely or at the border?
    No they can't because the existence of a border, hard or soft, is not mentioned once in the whole GFA. The only mention of the border is with regard to cross-border institutions. As such the GFA explicitly recognises that a border exists but has nothing at all to say about what form it should or should not take. Powell is another fuckwit using the threat of a return to the Troubles as blackmail to argue against Brexit.
    It says it should take the form of cooperation as members of the EU.

    "Wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples and the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union"

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/136652/agreement.pdf
    So like I said no mention of borders at all then.

    And if it is the case that that sentence means we are unable to leave the EU ever because membership of the EU is defined within the GFA then Lilico is right and the GFA is dead.
    I've yet to hear one reason why the Irish can have a border they desire for Corporation Tax, a border they desire for VAT, a border they desire for Income Tax, a border they desire for Abortion, but a border for customs duties is beyond the pale?

    The border already exists. The Irish are against harmonising taxes.
    To be fair, throughout history there have been many, many customs unions.

    But there aren't many (if any) examples of neighbouring nations harmonising corporate tax. (Not least because who decides when it changes? Are we allowing Ireland to set ours? Or are they setting ours? Or are we setting up a joint body?)
    A joint body, like the EU for instance? What a good idea!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    HYUFD said:

    If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.

    The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night

    Your analogy is all wrong. Going for Bozo is analogous with Labour losing its senses, not regaining them.
  • Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?

    They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:
    Shit, how cloth eared can you get? Brown's finest moments as PM were his flood visits in his first couple of months, and those were just normal floods. The Whaley Bridge crisis has generated headlines with dam and RAF in them, and if that doesn't electrify his core vote, what will?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited August 2019

    Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?

    They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.
    Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.
  • Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?

    They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.
    Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.
    YJB's doesn't want to give up the gloves.

    Put Denly as opener and Roy at 4.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?

    They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.
    Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.
    People said the same about Trescothick. I'd give him a fair chance.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    Shit, how cloth eared can you get? Brown's finest moments as PM were his flood visits in his first couple of months, and those were just normal floods. The Whaley Bridge crisis has generated headlines with dam and RAF in them, and if that doesn't electrify his core vote, what will?
    He not really a Prime Minister in the conventional sense though. He's more Minister for the Implementation of Brexit. Once that is done, or done with, he'll fuck off and we'll get a normal one in his place.
  • Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?

    They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.
    Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.
    People said the same about Trescothick. I'd give him a fair chance.
    It's not as if anyone else has more of a claim to the position.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited August 2019

    Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?

    They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.
    Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.
    People said the same about Trescothick. I'd give him a fair chance.
    He has to radically alter his approach and technique. He cant go hard at the ball like he does when opening in a test match. I just cant see him doing so, it seems ingrained him to try and bash the ball out the park every ball.

    Finch is the same for Australia. Massively destructive in T20, but can never see him batting like burns to grind out a 5-6hr century.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005

    Warne aside i am not sure the likes of the waugh brothers and glenn mcgarth were known for their charm and on field personality.

    In other words there's always an element saying damn these hard nosed charmless Ozzies, if only they were like those nice cuddly antipodeans of yesteryear. In Waugh & McGrath's day there were probably folk waxing fondly about Hughes & Lillee.

    Maybe not.
  • Warne aside i am not sure the likes of the waugh brothers and glenn mcgarth were known for their charm and on field personality.

    In other words there's always an element saying damn these hard nosed charmless Ozzies, if only they were like those nice cuddly antipodeans of yesteryear. In Waugh & McGrath's day there were probably folk waxing fondly about Hughes & Lillee.

    Maybe not.
    Lillee's era did bring out the best sledging response I've ever heard

    Rod Marsh: Hey Beefy, how's the wife and MY kids?

    Ian Botham: The wife's fine, the kids are retarded.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Can anyone point to the part of the GFA that forbids customs checks, either absolutely or at the border?
    Customs border not mentioned, but it was and is implicitly in the whole atmosphere that finally delivered peace.
    I don’t think anyone is arguing cooperation will end, just an additional bit of paperwork when sending goods.
    Where is the democratic mandate in Northern Ireland to impose this additional border friction?
    The 2016 EU referendum
    Nope.

    Leave: 349,442 (44.2%)
    Remain: 470,707 (55.8%)
    I assume your quoting NI figures. It was a UK wide ref with a million majority for leave
    "The British Government agree that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively, to exercise their right of self-may themselves freely so determine without external impediment."

    The people of Northern Ireland did not give consent to be taken out of the single market and customs union. Any form of Brexit that seeks to impose this on them is unacceptable and shames the UK.
    Wow damning quote (from presumably the now obsolete GFA)

    I guess we're remaining then.

    And the theory that it is impossible to leave the EU remains intact.
    I strongly suspect that if there was a referendum on the unification with the electorate of UK (inc NI) and the RoI able to vote, reunification would win by a considerable distance.
    reunification of what ?
    The reunification of the island of Ireland.
    Okay - it would hardly be a democratic vote though would it. NI wants to be British and I think we should let them be that.
    But core to being British is not making a song and dance about it. Yet all these various people across the seas who want to be British seem to forget the no singing and dancing bit.
    If only the feckers were overseas...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.

    The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night

    Your analogy is all wrong. Going for Bozo is analogous with Labour losing its senses, not regaining them.
    Nope, if the Tories had not gone with Bozo they would have been third last night behind the Brexit Party as well as the LDs
  • Swann was on his show the other day saying that the modern era ozzies are told basically not to acknowledge the poms during the ashes (even ones they are big mates with). They isnt anywhere near as much sledging, its more ignoring the opposition.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited August 2019
    dixiedean said:

    I take it criticism of Ms Long-Bailey and Pidcock's "lack of intelligence" is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to private school.
    Since one has a MSc, and the other is a solicitor.
    Not knowing about the world is code for "doesn't know about people like me." Since they are the children of social worker and of a docker. I should imagine they have plenty of knowledge of the world. Just not the world of most on here.

    No, it is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to Oxbridge (or even a Russell Group university)
  • Swann was on his show the other day saying that the modern era ozzies are told basically not to acknowledge the poms during the ashes (even ones they are big mates with). They isnt anywhere near as much sledging, its more ignoring the opposition.

    Stump mics are making sledging a bit more difficult, two test players have been banned just this year for saying racist/bigoted stuff.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    I take it criticism of Ms Long-Bailey and Pidcock's "lack of intelligence" is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to private school.
    Since one has a MSc, and the other is a solicitor.
    Not knowing about the world is code for "doesn't know about people like me." Since they are the children of social worker and of a docker. I should imagine they have plenty of knowledge of the world. Just not the world of most on here.

    No, it is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to Oxbridge (or even a Russell Group university)
    Even farts go to Oxford. One of them is now our PM and really screwing us.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited August 2019
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Corbyn does lead Labour at the next general election and loses and either stays Labour leader or is replaced by a Corbynista like Pidcock, Long-Bailey or McDonnell then there must be a strong possibility that the LDs will replace Labour as the main party of the centre left by the general election after next.

    The European Parliament elections fired a warning shot across Labour's bows when the LDs beat Labour, the Tories listened to their warning shot when the Brexit Party beat them by picking Boris to replace May, if Labour continue to stick their fingers in their ears and stick with Corbynism they will continue to see swings against them as they did in Brecon last night

    Your analogy is all wrong. Going for Bozo is analogous with Labour losing its senses, not regaining them.
    Nope, if the Tories had not gone with Bozo they would have been third last night behind the Brexit Party as well as the LDs
    There is already a remarkable mirroring of Labour attitudes among Tory members, fixated on their new leader despite everything that is obvious to non members. And in the minority who see the emperor has no clothes and are quietly leaving.

    Let’s see how it all pans out.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    New, new ball coming up. Vital last hour coming up I feel.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?

    When Philip Lee crosses the floor on the first day back would be my guess.
    Not really. The majority is still three courtesy of Elphicke - despite him now being forced to sit as an Independent. Two defectors ,therefore, needed.
    What about Hermon how would she vote? How did she vote last time?

    I imagine Grieve and Lee would go together.
    Gutto Bebb more likely than Grieve. Hermon voted with May in January - but probably less likely to support Johnson.
    I think you need to be more concerned over how many labour mps are willing to commit 'hari kari' by supporting a vonc
    There is no reason at all why any disillusioned Labour MP would wish to express confidence in Johnson - whatever their views of Corbyn.
  • Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    I take it criticism of Ms Long-Bailey and Pidcock's "lack of intelligence" is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to private school.
    Since one has a MSc, and the other is a solicitor.
    Not knowing about the world is code for "doesn't know about people like me." Since they are the children of social worker and of a docker. I should imagine they have plenty of knowledge of the world. Just not the world of most on here.

    No, it is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to Oxbridge (or even a Russell Group university)
    Wasn't Pidcock at Durham?

    Long-Bailey was at Manchester Met, and tbh from the things she says she must have struggled to get into that.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?

    Because he can't bat. Scored 2 ducks against a strong Irish attack.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?

    They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.
    Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.
    People said the same about Trescothick. I'd give him a fair chance.
    It's not as if anyone else has more of a claim to the position.
    Actually there was a batsman from Somerset just last week who did pretty well.
  • ydoethur said:

    Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?

    They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.
    Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.
    People said the same about Trescothick. I'd give him a fair chance.
    It's not as if anyone else has more of a claim to the position.
    Actually there was a batsman from Somerset just last week who did pretty well.
    But the Selectors don't know where Somerset is. Nor Essex. Mind you, it helps both counties when it comes to the County Championship, so no complaints.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    I take it criticism of Ms Long-Bailey and Pidcock's "lack of intelligence" is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to private school.
    Since one has a MSc, and the other is a solicitor.
    Not knowing about the world is code for "doesn't know about people like me." Since they are the children of social worker and of a docker. I should imagine they have plenty of knowledge of the world. Just not the world of most on here.

    No, it is PB code for doesn't sound like they went to Oxbridge (or even a Russell Group university)
    Wasn't Pidcock at Durham?

    Long-Bailey was at Manchester Met, and tbh from the things she says she must have struggled to get into that.
    Pidcock was at Manchester Met and Northumbria unis. Not sure about Long-Bailey.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited August 2019

    ydoethur said:

    Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?

    They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.
    Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.
    People said the same about Trescothick. I'd give him a fair chance.
    It's not as if anyone else has more of a claim to the position.
    Actually there was a batsman from Somerset just last week who did pretty well.
    But the Selectors don't know where Somerset is. Nor Essex. Mind you, it helps both counties when it comes to the County Championship, so no complaints.
    Not true

    Cook Tresothick Gooch just to name 3
  • I've never been able to Manchester Met seriously, not because I'm an elitist and snob about former polys, but it is hard to take seriously a university whose logo resembles Sam the Eagle.


  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.

    However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?

    You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.

    And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.

    Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.
    The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?
    Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21

    Yes, just 3 months back. HYUFD will be gutted. NO one has told him yet that Le Pen did not win the first round.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited August 2019

    Warne aside i am not sure the likes of the waugh brothers and glenn mcgarth were known for their charm and on field personality.

    In other words there's always an element saying damn these hard nosed charmless Ozzies, if only they were like those nice cuddly antipodeans of yesteryear. In Waugh & McGrath's day there were probably folk waxing fondly about Hughes & Lillee.

    Maybe not.
    Lillee's era did bring out the best sledging response I've ever heard

    Rod Marsh: Hey Beefy, how's the wife and MY kids?

    Ian Botham: The wife's fine, the kids are retarded.
    Not as good as the S African no 11batsman Eddo Brandes who was asked by McGrath

    Eddo... Why are you so fecking fat ? "Because every time I shag your missus, she gives me a biscuit"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited August 2019
    @Zephyr

    Macdonnell identifies as a Marxist.

    Corbyn calls himself a 'democratic Socialist,' which you may be unaware is a phrase coined by Lenin, which he explained more fully as part of 'the dictatorship of the Proletariat' - that is, the right sort of people would have the power to make decisions. He may of course be unaware of this, as he admits to not having 'read as much Marx as I [he] should have done.'

    You may argue his policies are not Marxist and you would be right. But you are missing the entire point of that manifesto. Like Chavez, it was a populist document designed to get him into power. None of it added up, none of it made sense, and very little of it could have been implemented. It seems likely therefore that if he ever got into power he would have been forced to make changes. It is unlikely they would have made them in the direction of capitalism (as say, Callaghan did).

    So it's perfectly fair to call them Marxists. If you say they're not proper Marxists because they don't know what that means, feel free. But don't accuse others of laziness for doing so.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Also for people about to start their pension years. Annuity rates are terrible.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Why is bairstow batting so far down the order?

    They think as a wicketkeeper he needs longer to recover before batting.
    Hmmm...i would stick buttler at wicketkeeper and have bairstow open / #3. Jason roy is never going to be a test match opener.
    People said the same about Trescothick. I'd give him a fair chance.
    It's not as if anyone else has more of a claim to the position.
    Actually there was a batsman from Somerset just last week who did pretty well.
    But the Selectors don't know where Somerset is. Nor Essex. Mind you, it helps both counties when it comes to the County Championship, so no complaints.
    Could have sworn a Somerset batsman made 92 opening against Ireland last week.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Warne aside i am not sure the likes of the waugh brothers and glenn mcgarth were known for their charm and on field personality.

    In other words there's always an element saying damn these hard nosed charmless Ozzies, if only they were like those nice cuddly antipodeans of yesteryear. In Waugh & McGrath's day there were probably folk waxing fondly about Hughes & Lillee.

    Maybe not.
    Lillee's era did bring out the best sledging response I've ever heard

    Rod Marsh: Hey Beefy, how's the wife and MY kids?

    Ian Botham: The wife's fine, the kids are retarded.
    Not as good as the S African no 11batsman Eddo Brandes who was asked by McGrath

    Eddo... Why are you so fecking fat ? "Because every time I shag your missus, she gives me a biscuit"
    Wasn't Eddo Brandes a Zimbabwean fast bowler and chicken farmer?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    ydoethur said:

    Warne aside i am not sure the likes of the waugh brothers and glenn mcgarth were known for their charm and on field personality.

    In other words there's always an element saying damn these hard nosed charmless Ozzies, if only they were like those nice cuddly antipodeans of yesteryear. In Waugh & McGrath's day there were probably folk waxing fondly about Hughes & Lillee.

    Maybe not.
    Lillee's era did bring out the best sledging response I've ever heard

    Rod Marsh: Hey Beefy, how's the wife and MY kids?

    Ian Botham: The wife's fine, the kids are retarded.
    Not as good as the S African no 11batsman Eddo Brandes who was asked by McGrath

    Eddo... Why are you so fecking fat ? "Because every time I shag your missus, she gives me a biscuit"
    Wasn't Eddo Brandes a Zimbabwean fast bowler and chicken farmer?
    Yes sorry, don't know what I was thinking,... trying to type and listen to the cricket.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited August 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.

    Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.
    It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited August 2019
    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.

    Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.
    It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.
    In 2015 Labour's vote went back to almost exactly the same level it had been in in 2005. Most of the lost Liberal Democrat vote seems to have switched directly to the Tories, although probably there was a lot of churn (UKIP voters from Labour, for example).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.

    However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?

    You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.

    And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.

    Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.
    The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?
    Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.
    You reckon another 50% increase in seat numbers in on the cards? 12 -> 18?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    Warne aside i am not sure the likes of the waugh brothers and glenn mcgarth were known for their charm and on field personality.

    In other words there's always an element saying damn these hard nosed charmless Ozzies, if only they were like those nice cuddly antipodeans of yesteryear. In Waugh & McGrath's day there were probably folk waxing fondly about Hughes & Lillee.

    Maybe not.
    Lillee's era did bring out the best sledging response I've ever heard

    Rod Marsh: Hey Beefy, how's the wife and MY kids?

    Ian Botham: The wife's fine, the kids are retarded.
    Not as good as the S African no 11batsman Eddo Brandes who was asked by McGrath

    Eddo... Why are you so fecking fat ? "Because every time I shag your missus, she gives me a biscuit"
    Mind the windows, Tino.

    On topic, SO is right. Corbyn protects the lefty slate from the centre left and the lefty slate protects him. The way the party is set up means it's a long way back for anyone wanting a centrist leader.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Floater said:
    Mossad at work....
  • Floater said:
    In Jezza doesn't win a GE, what will their reaction be....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    French farmers dump manure outside office of En Marche representative in protest at EU trade deal with Canada

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-protests/french-farmers-dump-manure-outside-office-of-macron-party-lawmaker-idUKKCN1US0JG
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.

    Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.
    It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.
    It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.

    If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21

    Yes, just 3 months back. HYUFD will be gutted. NO one has told him yet that Le Pen did not win the first round.
    In terms of departments won she did
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited August 2019
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.

    Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.
    It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.
    In 2015 Labour's vote went back to almost exactly the same level it had been in in 2005. Most of the lost Liberal Democrat vote seems to have switched directly to the Tories, although probably there was a lot of churn (UKIP voters from Labour, for example).
    Yes - that reflected the Tory campaign strategy in LibDem seats across GB in 2015 - Only a Tory vote can prevent chaos under Ed Milliband!'. Also a not insignificant Plaid and Green vote in 2015.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.

    However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?

    You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.

    And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.

    Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.
    The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?
    Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.
    No poll had the LDs on 20% plus in 2017 as Yougov and Mori do now
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Chris said:

    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.

    Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.
    It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.
    It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.

    If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.
    The only thing suicidal for Johnson would be extending again, do that and the Tories are guaranteed to fall behind the Brexit Party
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.

    Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.
    It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.
    In 2015 Labour's vote went back to almost exactly the same level it had been in in 2005. Most of the lost Liberal Democrat vote seems to have switched directly to the Tories, although probably there was a lot of churn (UKIP voters from Labour, for example).
    Yes - that reflected the Tory campaign strategy in LibDem seats across GB in 2015 - Only a Tory vote can prevent chaos under Ed Milliband!'.
    But it contradicts your point. There is no evidence of tactical voting here. Most of the changes in vote share can be explained by the changing demography of the seat. Fewer manual workers, more middle-class retirees. Just as, in 2015, there is no evidence of tactical unwind.

    That's not to say it's not happening, but if it is it seems to be on a pretty low level.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Also for people about to start their pension years. Annuity rates are terrible.
    Just remain in equities and sell/ take dividends instead of purchasing an annuity ?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Chris said:

    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to compare the result of the B&R by-election with the one held in 1985, on exactly the same boundaries. The Liberals / LDs got almost the same number of votes, the Tories were 2,000 higher, and Labour 12,000 lower. Labour lost 87% of their votes over that time.

    Right through to 2017 they had a decent rump, the BE result looks dire for them.
    It clearly reflects the change in the electoral dynamics of the seat in that the LibDems - having held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years - are now perceived as the obvious non-Tory alternative. That was not clear at the time of the 1985 by election result , but over the following decade it became apparent that not voting LibDem risked handing the seat back to the Tories - as happened in 1992. In 2015 many ceased to care because of the LibDem image of having been the 'Tories' Little Helpers'.
    It certainly seems there's a greater readiness for Labour supporters to vote tactically for Lib Dem candidates these days. The Euro elections would suggest the converse is true, though Peterborough wouldn't.

    If the converse were true, that would be the perfect storm for the Tories, and the No Deal route would become suicidal for Johnson - if people are still thinking in terms of an early election.
    To be fair, attitudes to the Euro elections tend to be pretty frivolous , and this year both Labour and the Tories abstained from serious campaigning.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    @Zephyr

    That is a most appealing post there. 'Marxist' is thrown about as slang for lefty sounding types who one doesn't like the smell of. 'Neoliberal' does similar for the opposite.

    The Labour offering under Corbyn is hard left social democracy. It's exactly what we need right now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    dixiedean said:

    New, new ball coming up. Vital last hour coming up I feel.

    Negotiated well.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    HYUFD said:

    Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21

    Yes, just 3 months back. HYUFD will be gutted. NO one has told him yet that Le Pen did not win the first round.
    In terms of departments won she did
    Even if it had been Departments that had counted (and they were marked as equal size), Macron would still have become President.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Are there any markets on when Bozo loses his working majority?

    When Philip Lee crosses the floor on the first day back would be my guess.
    Not really. The majority is still three courtesy of Elphicke - despite him now being forced to sit as an Independent. Two defectors ,therefore, needed.
    What about Hermon how would she vote? How did she vote last time?

    I imagine Grieve and Lee would go together.
    Gutto Bebb more likely than Grieve. Hermon voted with May in January - but probably less likely to support Johnson.
    I think you need to be more concerned over how many labour mps are willing to commit 'hari kari' by supporting a vonc
    The sooner you stop expecting Labour MPs to ride to the rescue, the sooner you'll stop being disappointed
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21

    Latest poll has it Macron 30% Le Pen 28% in round 1 and Macron 57% Le Pen 43% in the runoff

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    HYUFD said:

    Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21

    Latest poll has it Macron 30% Le Pen 28% in round 1 and Macron 57% Le Pen 43% in the runoff

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls
    That poll is from May. It is currently August.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.

    However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?

    You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.

    And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.

    Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.
    The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?
    Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.
    No poll had the LDs on 20% plus in 2017 as Yougov and Mori do now
    Yougov now has the LDs on 19% - compared with 24% at the end of May. Ipsos Mori has them on 20% compared with 22% a month earlier. That is not as sharp a decline as we have seen re- the Brexit Party , but still a clear trend. On a couple of occasions in early 2017 , Mori recorded the Libdems at 13% - almost double what was achieved at the GE.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21

    Latest poll has it Macron 30% Le Pen 28% in round 1 and Macron 57% Le Pen 43% in the runoff

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls
    That poll is from May. It is currently August.
    It is still the latest poll
  • Good first two days cricket by England. Hopefully we can bat through tomorrow as well, maybe declare with an hour to go if we are still batting and have a substantial lead.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited August 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21

    Yes, just 3 months back. HYUFD will be gutted. NO one has told him yet that Le Pen did not win the first round.
    In terms of departments won she did
    Even if it had been Departments that had counted (and they were marked as equal size), Macron would still have become President.
    Le Pen won 47 departments in mainland France in the first round, Macron won 42.

    Le Pen also won 8 regions to 5 for Macron

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election
  • justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Good piece Southam. Succinct and insightful.

    However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?

    You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.

    And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.

    Please, please, please, please, please let this happen.
    The lds though they could replace labour in 2017. Better luck 2019?
    Very unlikely. The Brecon & Radnor result is less impressive than the December 2016 Richmond by election - and we know how well the LibDems performed six months later.
    No poll had the LDs on 20% plus in 2017 as Yougov and Mori do now
    Yougov now has the LDs on 19% - compared with 24% at the end of May. Ipsos Mori has them on 20% compared with 22% a month earlier. That is not as sharp a decline as we have seen re- the Brexit Party , but still a clear trend. On a couple of occasions in early 2017 , Mori recorded the Libdems at 13% - almost double what was achieved at the GE.
    2017 the Lib Dems got squeezed by Labour as the only opposition to a landslide Tory Brexit.

    That's no longer the case. The Tinkerbell effect means the Lib Dems may be squeezing Labour rather than the other way around next time.

    Be healthier for the country if the Lib Dems were able to displace the Marxist cabal as the part of the left.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    edited August 2019
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21

    Latest poll has it Macron 30% Le Pen 28% in round 1 and Macron 57% Le Pen 43% in the runoff

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls
    That poll is from May. It is currently August.
    It is still the latest poll
    I think we can both agree that the information value of a poll degrades over time.
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21

    Yes, just 3 months back. HYUFD will be gutted. NO one has told him yet that Le Pen did not win the first round.
    In terms of departments won she did
    Even if it had been Departments that had counted (and they were marked as equal size), Macron would still have become President.
    Le Pen won 47 departments in mainland France in the first round, Macron won 42.

    Le Pen also won 8 regions to 5 for Macron

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election
    So frigging what!?

    Firstly departments don't matter.
    Secondly it only the second round that decides it.

    That's worse than saying Hillary should be President because she won more votes.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Archie McInnes, one of the last of "The Few" Battle of Britain fighter pilots has died hours after turning 100.

    Flt Lt McInnes flew Hurricanes during the war and also took part in the hunt for the Bismarck. He lost an arm in 1941 after being shot down.

    There now remain only five surviving Battle of Britain pilots - all centenarians :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-49204090
  • Le Pen lost all but two departments in the second round. Not that it is departments that determines who wins.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited August 2019

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21

    Yes, just 3 months back. HYUFD will be gutted. NO one has told him yet that Le Pen did not win the first round.
    In terms of departments won she did
    Even if it had been Departments that had counted (and they were marked as equal size), Macron would still have become President.
    Le Pen won 47 departments in mainland France in the first round, Macron won 42.

    Le Pen also won 8 regions to 5 for Macron

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election
    So frigging what!?

    Firstly departments don't matter.
    Secondly it only the second round that decides it.

    That's worse than saying Hillary should be President because she won more votes.
    There was no runoff and second round in the USA unlike France and Hillary won the popular vote as Macron did but Trump won most states as Le Pen won most departments and regions and the Electoral College
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    JackW said:

    Archie McInnes, one of the last of "The Few" Battle of Britain fighter pilots has died hours after turning 100.

    Flt Lt McInnes flew Hurricanes during the war and also took part in the hunt for the Bismarck. He lost an arm in 1941 after being shot down.

    There now remain only five surviving Battle of Britain pilots - all centenarians :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-49204090

    It's nice to see that he even managed to fulfil what was probably his last ambition..
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Remember when Macron was the most hated president in French history and doomed to failure?
    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1157305136512995328?s=21

    Yes, just 3 months back. HYUFD will be gutted. NO one has told him yet that Le Pen did not win the first round.
    In terms of departments won she did
    Even if it had been Departments that had counted (and they were marked as equal size), Macron would still have become President.
    Le Pen won 47 departments in mainland France in the first round, Macron won 42.

    Le Pen also won 8 regions to 5 for Macron

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election
    So frigging what!?

    Firstly departments don't matter.
    Secondly it only the second round that decides it.

    That's worse than saying Hillary should be President because she won more votes.
    There was no runoff and second round in the USA unlike France and Hillary won the popular vote as Macron did but Trump won most states as Le Pen won most departments and regions and the Electoral College
    Yes but popular vote wins it in France and the Electoral College wins it in USA. Saying "ah but" is moot.
This discussion has been closed.