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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Despite the dire polling, Jeremy Corbyn is not going anywhere
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Despite the dire polling, Jeremy Corbyn is not going anywhere
Barring accident or illness the Labour leader is certain to lead the party into the next election and is very likely to stay whatever the result may be
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RLB ahead on 1st preferences, but loses in the run-off?
As previously stated, I think there is a clear path to a deal. But who can tell what Boris thinks he is up to?
Labour's triumph in beating those electoral titans UKIP and the Monster Raving Loony Party shows that Chairman Corbyn is on the path to victory!
However- looking at the practicalities of s deal between LibDems and the Greens,- I have used Flavible to reduce the LibDem share and increase the Green share until Green seats come into play. The top seven are:
Brighton Pavillion
Isle of Wight
Glasgow North (Edinburgh North just misses the cut)
Putney
Wimbledon
Kensington
Cities of London and Westminster
Good article. Thank you @SouthamObserver.
“The most worrying thing about this by-election? It has increased the chances of both Remain and Leave alliances in an early election, which could see Labour squeezed out and made irrelevant as they were last night. And there’s not much the party can do about that possibility. Labour will just have to hope that it can shift the broader narrative, rather than ignore it, and that the ever-more-likely snap poll isn’t fought entirely on Brexit.”
Now yes, headbangers on all sides could dream up new objections, but that will take care of most of their old ones, and Boris's GATT ramblings ("but what about paragraph c?") suggest this is the path he is exploring.
Tremble at his earth-shattering popularity, lesser politicians!
Not going to happen...
Jesus, shoot me now
Personally I think Corbyn goes if he does badly in the next election, which looks likely to be soon.
Ooooops!
Meanwhile those driven away from the Tories’ no deal fetish won’t be looking toward Labour anyway.
It seems more and more obvious that the viable future for Labour is as a Melenchon style left wing party within a more pluralistic political environment.
Yet the party clings to the delusion that it can be both left wing and secure a majority under the current system, by ducking a clear position on any issue where the interests of its diverse constituencies (crudely, the working class, Asian voters, and educated social liberals) cannot be reconciled.
Instead of a one-job government to put an end to Brexit, a brave strategy would be a cross-party two-job government to both end Brexit and push through political reform.
The words, yes. The accent, no.
Lay the favourite (It constantly changes happily enough) - currently that's Keir Starmer.
However, it is maybe a bit too pessimistic on the post-election outcome. Presuming Corbyn loses the next GE, and loses badly, then he would surely have to go. The pressure from all sides would become too great, and he is also an old man. He would simply give up?
You also ignore the possibility that all of Britain becomes Brecon. And we have a Brexit general election where the Lib Dems entirely replace Labour, who go down under 100 seats. This is far from impossible.
And in that situation it doesn't really matter who leads Labour, they are no longer the Opposition, nor the Government. They are finished.
Does it have some rough edges which need sanding down ?
And, of course, it has already happened in Scotland.
Do not know how good the information was.
Hope it is incorrect.
However if correct could change things.
But, yes, health permitting he gets to fight it. That is close to certain.
So, on the betting, the lay at 3.5 that he is out this year is value. I have some of that. Even if there IS an Oct election and he DOES lose big, it will probably take into 2020 to replace him.
That said, I believe an election before Brexit is delivered (this year, next year, whenever) is his best and probably only chance to become PM.
Reason being, he needs Remainer tactical voting (against Hard Brexit) in order to achieve a minority Labour government. I do not think there is sufficient genuine support for his redistributive agenda in this country to win under any other circumstances. Therefore, if the GE comes post Brexit, he loses to Johnson.
I say this with no glee, since I support Labour's policy direction under him. It's why I joined the party last summer.
1) Why am I still in the Labour Party as what's the point, and
2) If I left, what is the alternative?
I absolutely define myself by Clause 4 of the Party Constitution. Namely:
"The Labour Party is a democratic socialist party. It believes that by the strength of our common endeavour we achieve more than we achieve alone, so as to create for each of us the means to realise our true potential and for all of us a community in which power, wealth and opportunity are in the hands of the many, not the few, where the rights we enjoy reflect the duties we owe, and where we live together, freely, in a spirit of solidarity, tolerance and respect"
The problem is that the Labour Party is increasingly none of those things.
I always titter at that James Bond 007 Corbyn picture. But Miss Moneypenny-Abbott is not to be seen ....
He's a 70 year old man. I simply don't believe he can endure another 5 years of this. Especially after a big, humiliating defeat (if it happens). He will tell Milne and McDonnell to do one, and he will quit. And retire to become an elder statesman with an allotment.
Wondering what the shades of Roy Jenkins and Dennis Healey are making of all this.
It's things like this:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-corbyn-admits-he-is-being-treated-for-eye-condition-th5dhlpcd
[Facepalm]
Edited extra bit: hope I got the name right.
I've got tons locked up in that market too.
And your long 'sleepy' short 'kamala' position looks less sickly now, I would imagine.
FPTP makes multi-party coalitions difficult. The junior partner is obliterated, as we saw with Cameron/Clegg. So there will be no multi-party coalitions any time soon - not Lab/LD, not Con/Brexit. (The possible exception is where one party is dominant in a region, a la SNP.)
Historically the only parties capable of winning power are those which are already internal coalitions. Cameron before he blew it, Blair, Thatcher etc.
@SouthamObserver’s piece demonstrates that Labour is not going to return to that for many years. ABDPJohnson’s hard Brexit Cabinet shows that the Conservatives, too, have abandoned the logic of the internal coalition, which even May tried to preserve.
There is one inescapable conclusion from this, which is that sane social democrats like @RochdalePioneers need to join the party formed as an internal coalition between social democrats and liberals.
But then I would say that.
Since one has a MSc, and the other is a solicitor.
Not knowing about the world is code for "doesn't know about people like me." Since they are the children of social worker and of a docker. I should imagine they have plenty of knowledge of the world. Just not the world of most on here.
I note Osborne has decided to hitch to the good ship Boris for the moment...
I imagine Grieve and Lee would go together.
Must admit - this Laura Pidcock chapess has rather passed me by.
If utterly depressing for moderate voters.
Political intelligence is indicated not by having a "private school accent" (whatever that is), but in degree of articulation of thought, and general maturity. there are plenty of people in the trade union movement who have strong accents and come over as highly intelligent. These two women seem to somewhat lacking in that department when I have seen them.
Then people will moan about the enormous number of private school to Oxbridge to job in politics, MPs we have.
Labour’s Clause 4 - all of it - is absolutely what I believe in. It’s only a matter of time before the far left rewrites it, though.
https://twitter.com/SFFakeNews/status/1157267260970622979
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1157301363837194241