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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    Penddu said:

    Dear Mike. Wales is not a Principality!!!!!!!

    Is it a Power?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are making a fundamental error there

    You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales

    However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA

    As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas

    Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.

  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Good morning, everyone.

    Another race this coming weekend. Rain or hot weather could make things turbulent. Not checked the forecast yet.

    I wonder what will happen if we have another election and Labour go backwards.

    Rain on Friday, hot on Saturday and Sunday so the first 2 practice sessions won’t help people
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Pulpstar said:

    Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.

    The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?

    Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Fingers crossed for a good Plaid Cymru showing.

    Why? My enemy's enemy is my friend? As Alex Salmond noted years ago, Welsh and Scottish nationalism are quite different.
    Plaid is our sister party. They speak at our conference and vice versa. We share whip and resources at Westminster and European Parliament. Our activists help each other. Indeed I think our membership even entitles is to attend branch meetings and vote if we live in the other country. We certainly had a PC student activist fully involved in our branch for a while.
    Everyone on here keeps telling us that the Conservatives are an English nationalist party - perhaps you should partner up with them too ?

    Although this Welsh poll doesn’t support that argument much..
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Penddu said:

    So that is Remain 56% - Leave 42%

    You are making the same mistake as others

    You cannot award all the labour vote to remain as I have previously stated
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
    The most significant news over the weekend was Jacob Rees-Mogg effectively acknowledging that the government would probably lose a vote of no confidence if held. Everything else has to be understood in that context.
    Part of the strategy I have described. And an excellent wind up of Corbyn and his criticism of Swinson.
    The government is falling. The question is what happens next.

    If you’re Farage do you look at BXP’s strong residual support and seek to nurture it by staying clear of the Tories or do you give up on it by doing either a tacit or implicit deal? I can see strong arguments for both right now.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL “Do turkeys really vote for Christmas?”

    Yes. They have bird-brains.

    The SNP did in 1979.
    The SNP are a special case.

    And on the current polling the SNP would expect to pick up 6 or 7 of the Labour seats in Scotland. Probably some of the Tory seats too. They are going to be a lot more behind a VoNC than Labour. The Lib Dems will also expect a significant increase in numbers but their leader should be careful about what she wishes for.
    Hence my comments about Labour's obvious weakness playing into the politics.
    Given that Labour voted for it last time when they were well behind in the polls, I don't see why they wouldn't again.
    But would all LAB MPs vote for it? Many would not want to do anything that could possibly allow Corbyn to become PM. Also there are fewer LAB and CON MPs and my guess is that many of those who went to TIG would not want an immediate election until they can find a solution to their own seat situations.
    If all current Tory and DUP votes supported it then less than half of Labour's MPs would be needed. Assuming the SNP and Liberal Democrats would enthusiastically vote for an election right now, the figure is less.

    Bottom line is, I don't think there would be a problem actually calling an election, and it's clear Johnson is preparing for one. Whether he is wise, or would win it, are somewhat different questions.
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 126

    HYUFD said:

    The latest yougov had Lib Dem’s on twice the Tory vote in Scotland. Where is Fraser getting his data from? As a Scottish Tory member I would vote Lib Dem for Westminster.

    Today's YouGov showing the Scottish Brexit Party vote collapsing back to the Scottish Tories
    Oh, so not the Opinium that had the SNP on 46%, Nicola Sturgeon with a positive approval rating, and Johnson on -33 and Corbyn on -49 approval in Scotland.

    Pick and choose HY. Pick and choose.
    I swear he's just just doing this ironically now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
    So Revoke it is. There’s some nice prices on that.
    It will not be revoke.

    We are still in the deal - no deal - remain arena but remain can only happen after a second referendum.

    Anything else would be unacceptable
    The government is threatening not to seek to extend even if there’s a vote of no confidence and general election spanning 31 October. In those circumstances I could easily see a revocation being forced as a final act of this Parliament.
    I do respect your views Alastair so how do you see the mechanics of that happening?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    TGOHF said:

    Fingers crossed for a good Plaid Cymru showing.

    Why? My enemy's enemy is my friend? As Alex Salmond noted years ago, Welsh and Scottish nationalism are quite different.
    Plaid is our sister party. They speak at our conference and vice versa. We share whip and resources at Westminster and European Parliament. Our activists help each other. Indeed I think our membership even entitles is to attend branch meetings and vote if we live in the other country. We certainly had a PC student activist fully involved in our branch for a while.
    Everyone on here keeps telling us that the Conservatives are an English nationalist party - perhaps you should partner up with them too ?

    Although this Welsh poll doesn’t support that argument much..
    Nope. You’ve lost me. I’ve read what you’ve written five times now and can’t make head nor tail of it. Could you please write in clear and concise English so that we have a glimmer of hope of understanding what point you are trying to make.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Genuinely interesting. Ruth Davidson doesn't bother to hide that she thinks Johnson a turd. Her argument: never mind that, I get to decide what happens in the Scottish Conservatives, I don't sign up to the No Deal pledge, and in any case the Union is the key thing.

    Not wholly convincing, but interesting nevertheless. We also learn that she has no plans to quit and she won't instigate a Scottish Conservative party that is independent of the English party (Although she does allow for the Scottish membership to overrule her on the last point).

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1155414194981916672

    So what actually is her strategy, just quietly tutting and shaking her head in a corner?
    I would say Davidson's strategy, which is to pitch the Conservatives as the natural inclusive party of the Union, has been utterly undermined by her English colleagues.

    She is reduced to arguing that the Good need not be the enemy of the Utterly Crap, if the alternative is Unnecessary Catastrophe.

    Not a particularly compelling argument IMO
    Ruth has never had any compelling arguments.

    She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - Scottish independence, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.
    But Brexit itself is almost entirely being opposed to stuff...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are making a fundamental error there

    You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales

    However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA

    As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas

    Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.

    I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Fingers crossed for a good Plaid Cymru showing.

    Why? My enemy's enemy is my friend? As Alex Salmond noted years ago, Welsh and Scottish nationalism are quite different.
    Plaid is our sister party. They speak at our conference and vice versa. We share whip and resources at Westminster and European Parliament. Our activists help each other. Indeed I think our membership even entitles is to attend branch meetings and vote if we live in the other country. We certainly had a PC student activist fully involved in our branch for a while.
    Everyone on here keeps telling us that the Conservatives are an English nationalist party - perhaps you should partner up with them too ?

    Although this Welsh poll doesn’t support that argument much..
    Nope. You’ve lost me. I’ve read what you’ve written five times now and can’t make head nor tail of it. Could you please write in clear and concise English so that we have a glimmer of hope of understanding what point you are trying to make.
    SNP partnering up with Nationalist parties like PC, Shinners and the Catalan mob.

    If it’s nationalist mates you want why not the Cons or Kippers ?

    Or is everything English toxic ?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    Penddu said:

    So that is Remain 56% - Leave 42%

    You are making the same mistake as others

    You cannot award all the labour vote to remain as I have previously stated

    Then you cannot award the whole Tory vote to Leave!

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Alister Jack said he would fund breakaway Scottish Conservative Party

    The new Scottish Secretary offered to fund a breakaway Scottish Conservative Party, it has emerged.

    Alister Jack, who built up his multi-million-pound wealth through his tent-hire and self-storage businesses, said he would put forward “significant sums of money” to back 2011 Scottish Tory leadership contender Murdo Fraser’s plan to split from the UK Conservatives in order to “detoxify” the party’s brand in Scotland.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/alister-jack-said-he-would-fund-breakaway-scottish-conservative-party-1-4972564/amp
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.

    The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?

    Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
    PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    Penddu said:

    So that is Remain 56% - Leave 42%

    You are making the same mistake as others

    You cannot award all the labour vote to remain as I have previously stated
    Neither can you allocate all the Tory vote to Leave, even post Boris.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    edited July 2019

    Penddu said:

    So that is Remain 56% - Leave 42%

    You are making the same mistake as others

    You cannot award all the labour vote to remain as I have previously stated

    Then you cannot award the whole Tory vote to Leave!

    We shouldn't really be trying to work out 'Leave' or 'Remain' from these questions anyway. To that extent, I agree with Justin and Nick who are constantly warning us against it.

    For example, I'm perfectly happy with the Withdrawal Agreement, but I have drifted away from the Tories having voted for them in 2017 for a large number of other reasons. If I then vote for the Liberal Democrats, that isn't necessarily because I want us to revoke at all costs (which would be damaging).
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fingers crossed for a good Plaid Cymru showing.

    Why? My enemy's enemy is my friend? As Alex Salmond noted years ago, Welsh and Scottish nationalism are quite different.
    Plaid is our sister party. They speak at our conference and vice versa. We share whip and resources at Westminster and European Parliament. Our activists help each other. Indeed I think our membership even entitles is to attend branch meetings and vote if we live in the other country. We certainly had a PC student activist fully involved in our branch for a while.
    Everyone on here keeps telling us that the Conservatives are an English nationalist party - perhaps you should partner up with them too ?

    Although this Welsh poll doesn’t support that argument much..
    Nope. You’ve lost me. I’ve read what you’ve written five times now and can’t make head nor tail of it. Could you please write in clear and concise English so that we have a glimmer of hope of understanding what point you are trying to make.
    SNP partnering up with Nationalist parties like PC, Shinners and the Catalan mob.

    If it’s nationalist mates you want why not the Cons or Kippers ?

    Or is everything English toxic ?
    By your definition, every political party on the planet is “nationalist”. Unless there is some party somewhere that is campaigning for a world parliament and world government. If there is, I don’t think they have managed to get any parliamentarians elected anywhere.

    But thank you for making it clear what you were trying to do: smear.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.

    The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?

    Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
    PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
    I think not too, aren't about 25% of Welsh voters from outside Wales? Nonetheless PC control of the Assembly may well put substantial further strain on the Union.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    Scott_P said:
    What does he mean, 'doubtful?' As it's part of the flipping WA it's certain we wouldn't have one.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Penddu said:

    So that is Remain 56% - Leave 42%

    You are making the same mistake as others

    You cannot award all the labour vote to remain as I have previously stated

    Then you cannot award the whole Tory vote to Leave!

    I would suggest most conservatives support leave but accept many do not support no deal
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are making a fundamental error there

    You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales

    However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA

    As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas

    Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.

    I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree

    In what way?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fingers crossed for a good Plaid Cymru showing.

    Why? My enemy's enemy is my friend? As Alex Salmond noted years ago, Welsh and Scottish nationalism are quite different.
    Plaid is our sister party. They speak at our conference and vice versa. We share whip and resources at Westminster and European Parliament. Our activists help each other. Indeed I think our membership even entitles is to attend branch meetings and vote if we live in the other country. We certainly had a PC student activist fully involved in our branch for a while.
    Everyone on here keeps telling us that the Conservatives are an English nationalist party - perhaps you should partner up with them too ?

    Although this Welsh poll doesn’t support that argument much..
    Nope. You’ve lost me. I’ve read what you’ve written five times now and can’t make head nor tail of it. Could you please write in clear and concise English so that we have a glimmer of hope of understanding what point you are trying to make.
    SNP partnering up with Nationalist parties like PC, Shinners and the Catalan mob.

    If it’s nationalist mates you want why not the Cons or Kippers ?

    Or is everything English toxic ?
    By your definition, every political party on the planet is “nationalist”. Unless there is some party somewhere that is campaigning for a world parliament and world government. If there is, I don’t think they have managed to get any parliamentarians elected anywhere.

    But thank you for making it clear what you were trying to do: smear.
    The Greens would be happy with that.

    We've had Communist MPs as well, e.g. Saklatvala.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Has no-one written a header about the Love Island final tonight and its potential impact on a future GE? Unbelievable.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Alister Jack said he would fund breakaway Scottish Conservative Party

    The new Scottish Secretary offered to fund a breakaway Scottish Conservative Party, it has emerged.

    Alister Jack, who built up his multi-million-pound wealth through his tent-hire and self-storage businesses, said he would put forward “significant sums of money” to back 2011 Scottish Tory leadership contender Murdo Fraser’s plan to split from the UK Conservatives in order to “detoxify” the party’s brand in Scotland.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/alister-jack-said-he-would-fund-breakaway-scottish-conservative-party-1-4972564/amp

    I think that is a very good idea
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
    The most significant news over the weekend was Jacob Rees-Mogg effectively acknowledging that the government would probably lose a vote of no confidence if held. Everything else has to be understood in that context.
    I missed that.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    IanB2 said:

    YouGov/ITV had a poll conducted 5-7 May 2017 which had the following result:
    Lab 35, Con 41, UKIP 4, PC 11, LD 7, Green 1.

    Whatever happened exactly a month later ? I have seen this before.

    The thing about these political honeymoons - which all new PMs seem to get - is that they are a period during which the relief and novelty of a change in leadership lead people to suspend any critical judgement on the new leader. When this bubble is burst - usually following the first unpopular decision - normal business is resumed.

    Unusually, the 2017 GE was called during May’s first year honeymoon - and I do wonder whether the bigger story of that election is not so much that Corbyn suddenly found his mojo but that the forced electoral choice burst the honeymoon balloon and when voters’ critical eyes were turned on May for the first time, they didn’t like what they saw.

    A thought for Bozo if indeed he is considering a honeymoon election bid?
    Well put.
    You can smell the panic as the poll rubbishers are out in force.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    Has no-one written a header about the Love Island final tonight and its potential impact on a future GE? Unbelievable.

    There are enough tits in politics at the moment, we don't need to ogle extra ones on ITV.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Genuinely interesting. Ruth Davidson doesn't bother to hide that she thinks Johnson a turd. Her argument: never mind that, I get to decide what happens in the Scottish Conservatives, I don't sign up to the No Deal pledge, and in any case the Union is the key thing.

    Not wholly convincing, but interesting nevertheless. We also learn that she has no plans to quit and she won't instigate a Scottish Conservative party that is independent of the English party (Although she does allow for the Scottish membership to overrule her on the last point).

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1155414194981916672

    So what actually is her strategy, just quietly tutting and shaking her head in a corner?
    I would say Davidson's strategy, which is to pitch the Conservatives as the natural inclusive party of the Union, has been utterly undermined by her English colleagues.

    She is reduced to arguing that the Good need not be the enemy of the Utterly Crap, if the alternative is Unnecessary Catastrophe.

    Not a particularly compelling argument IMO
    Ruth has never had any compelling arguments.

    She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - Scottish independence, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.
    But Brexit itself is almost entirely being opposed to stuff...
    For Ruth it is a matter of priority: the Union trumps Brexit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
    The most significant news over the weekend was Jacob Rees-Mogg effectively acknowledging that the government would probably lose a vote of no confidence if held. Everything else has to be understood in that context.
    I missed that.
    Clearly Jeremy Corbyn did as well, given he's been excusing his refusal to back a VoNC due to his belief he'd lose it.

    Or was he telling porkies?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.

    The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?

    Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
    It looks as though one consequence of the Tories becoming more of an English nationalist party, is a big boost to Scottish and perhaps now Welsh nationalism.

    Talking to Scottish friends, they're coming round to the idea of independence having previously been opposed.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.

    The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?

    Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
    PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
    I think not too, aren't about 25% of Welsh voters from outside Wales? Nonetheless PC control of the Assembly may well put substantial further strain on the Union.
    PC would be unlikely to gain a majority in the assembly
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    ydoethur said:

    Has no-one written a header about the Love Island final tonight and its potential impact on a future GE? Unbelievable.

    There are enough tits in politics at the moment, we don't need to ogle extra ones on ITV.
    Speak for yourself!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are making a fundamental error there

    You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales

    However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA

    As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas

    Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.

    I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree

    In what way?

    He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are making a fundamental error there

    You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales

    However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA

    As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas

    Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.

    I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree

    In what way?

    He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA
    Labour has a policy?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. eek, if Mercedes still suffer with temperatures, it could be good for Verstappen and Ferrari again.

    I wonder if Gasly's last outing effectively cooked his goose.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    Has no-one written a header about the Love Island final tonight and its potential impact on a future GE? Unbelievable.

    Best get writing! Then send it to @TSE
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    The problem with this strategy is that by taking extreme positions on the backstop etc, Johnson isn't threatening No Deal to those who would prefer to Remain. He's promising No Deal.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    I thought PC were going to top this poll?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are making a fundamental error there

    You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales

    However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA

    As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas

    Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.

    I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree

    In what way?

    He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA

    Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    I'm not sure why Scully was so excited - aren't the shifts broadly in line with the average national poll changes since when the last Welsh poll was taken? The same comments apply - Boris had a medium-sized bounce, mostly from the Brexit Party, LibDems a bit up, will these figures go up or down when the initial Borisgasm is over, who knows?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    YouGov/ITV had a poll conducted 5-7 May 2017 which had the following result:
    Lab 35, Con 41, UKIP 4, PC 11, LD 7, Green 1.

    Whatever happened exactly a month later ? I have seen this before.

    The thing about these political honeymoons - which all new PMs seem to get - is that they are a period during which the relief and novelty of a change in leadership lead people to suspend any critical judgement on the new leader. When this bubble is burst - usually following the first unpopular decision - normal business is resumed.

    Unusually, the 2017 GE was called during May’s first year honeymoon - and I do wonder whether the bigger story of that election is not so much that Corbyn suddenly found his mojo but that the forced electoral choice burst the honeymoon balloon and when voters’ critical eyes were turned on May for the first time, they didn’t like what they saw.

    A thought for Bozo if indeed he is considering a honeymoon election bid?
    Well put.
    You can smell the panic as the poll rubbishers are out in force.
    The poll confirms the fall in support for labour that has been evident for sometime

    Those labour supporters hoping it is a short term issue are going to be very disappointed

    I am not sure about the 'Boris' effect and still expect the lib dems to take B & R comfortably on thursday
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.

    The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?

    Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
    PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
    I think not too, aren't about 25% of Welsh voters from outside Wales? Nonetheless PC control of the Assembly may well put substantial further strain on the Union.
    PC would be unlikely to gain a majority in the assembly

    They used to say that about the SNP in Scotland. Things change.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
    The most significant news over the weekend was Jacob Rees-Mogg effectively acknowledging that the government would probably lose a vote of no confidence if held. Everything else has to be understood in that context.
    I missed that.
    The Telegraph buried its lead on Saturday.

    https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1154879575840710657?s=21
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are making a fundamental error there

    You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales

    However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA

    As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas

    Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.

    I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree

    In what way?

    He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA

    Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.

    True. Although Brecon will be won for the LibDems because Tory remainers are switching to them. High time Labour remainers came to the same conclusion.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Genuinely interesting. Ruth Davidson doesn't bother to hide that she thinks Johnson a turd. Her argument: never mind that, I get to decide what happens in the Scottish Conservatives, I don't sign up to the No Deal pledge, and in any case the Union is the key thing.

    Not wholly convincing, but interesting nevertheless. We also learn that she has no plans to quit and she won't instigate a Scottish Conservative party that is independent of the English party (Although she does allow for the Scottish membership to overrule her on the last point).

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1155414194981916672

    So what actually is her strategy, just quietly tutting and shaking her head in a corner?
    I would say Davidson's strategy, which is to pitch the Conservatives as the natural inclusive party of the Union, has been utterly undermined by her English colleagues.

    She is reduced to arguing that the Good need not be the enemy of the Utterly Crap, if the alternative is Unnecessary Catastrophe.

    Not a particularly compelling argument IMO
    Ruth has never had any compelling arguments.

    She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - Scottish independence, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.
    But Brexit itself is almost entirely being opposed to stuff...
    For Ruth it is a matter of priority: the Union trumps Brexit.
    It does for me as well
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    tlg86 said:

    I thought PC were going to top this poll?


    Read the full article, and you will see that they have (if for the assembly). Which is remarkable.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?

    When he's lost Islington.

    That wasn't a joke, btw.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    edited July 2019

    Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?

    Even the most ardent Lib Dem zealot would not claim London, as a whole, will do anything but vote overwhelmingly for Labour at the next GE.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    ydoethur said:

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are making a fundamental error there

    You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales

    However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA

    As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas

    Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.

    I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree

    In what way?

    He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA
    Labour has a policy?
    Figuratively speaking
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Not really a "gosh" or "blimey" poll in my opinion. Scully sexed it up in his tweets.

    But, a good poll for the Tories, TBF. (Pulpstar was right yesterday).
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    What do people make of Dominic Cummings? I've tried reading some of his blog but what exactly does he WANT? One would expect politics to be about an end point from which you work backwards to determine the means.

    He seems like a strange kind of anarchist wanting to expose and bring down the established order and the frauds who benefit from it. But for what? He's very keen on data and using hard science. There's something to that but does he realise that part of what went wrong with economics was a faith in models and treating a social or you might say human science as if it were a branch of physics.

    I can't get past the idea of the outsider who turns into a wrecker. Him and Boris make an odd couple.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Scott_P said:

    Whilst there might be some truth in that references to Hitler and Nazis aren’t exactly ‘light-touch’ on the other side either.
    The country would benefit from finding a story about itself that didn't start and end with the Good War Against The Nazis.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    IanB2 said:

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are making a fundamental error there

    You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales

    However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA

    As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas

    Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.

    I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree

    In what way?

    He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA

    Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.

    True. Although Brecon will be won for the LibDems because Tory remainers are switching to them. High time Labour remainers came to the same conclusion.
    I think Lab Remainers will vote LD in B&R
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    IanB2 said:

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are making a fundamental error there

    You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales

    However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA

    As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas

    Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.

    I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree

    In what way?

    He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA

    Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.

    True. Although Brecon will be won for the LibDems because Tory remainers are switching to them. High time Labour remainers came to the same conclusion.

    It’s a process. I do think tactical voting will be massive next time around. One thing I wonder, though, is whether people who continue to identify as BXP, despite the Tories becoming the BXP, will go out and vote tactically for the Tories? There must be something stopping them making that final leap.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    Scott_P said:

    Matches what I am seeing here in B&R. Division and infighting, rather than Brexit per se, is the main LibDem attack line against the Tories. And Tory remainers are the key group of swing voters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    Not really a "gosh" or "blimey" poll in my opinion. Scully sexed it up in his tweets.

    But, a good poll for the Tories, TBF. (Pulpstar was right yesterday).

    Doesn't he always?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    edited July 2019

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Genuinely interesting. Ruth Davidson doesn't bother to hide that she thinks Johnson a turd. Her argument: never mind that, I get to decide what happens in the Scottish Conservatives, I don't sign up to the No Deal pledge, and in any case the Union is the key thing.

    Not wholly convincing, but interesting nevertheless. We also learn that she has no plans to quit and she won't instigate a Scottish Conservative party that is independent of the English party (Although she does allow for the Scottish membership to overrule her on the last point).

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1155414194981916672

    So what actually is her strategy, just quietly tutting and shaking her head in a corner?
    I would say Davidson's strategy, which is to pitch the Conservatives as the natural inclusive party of the Union, has been utterly undermined by her English colleagues.

    She is reduced to arguing that the Good need not be the enemy of the Utterly Crap, if the alternative is Unnecessary Catastrophe.

    Not a particularly compelling argument IMO
    Ruth has never had any compelling arguments.

    She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - Scottish independence, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.
    I think that unfair. Davidson is for a liberal Union of values. Her problem is that her English colleagues have completely trashed those values.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    IanB2 said:

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are making a fundamental error there

    You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales

    However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA

    As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas

    Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.

    I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree

    In what way?

    He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA

    Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.

    True. Although Brecon will be won for the LibDems because Tory remainers are switching to them. High time Labour remainers came to the same conclusion.
    I think Lab Remainers will vote LD in B&R
    Yes, if there is a market on Labour losing its deposit I’d say that was a sure bet.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    IanB2 said:

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are making a fundamental error there

    You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales

    However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA

    As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas

    Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.

    I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree

    In what way?

    He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA

    Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.

    True. Although Brecon will be won for the LibDems because Tory remainers are switching to them. High time Labour remainers came to the same conclusion.
    I think Lab Remainers will vote LD in B&R
    Those three votes might yet be crucial.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    The problem with this strategy is that by taking extreme positions on the backstop etc, Johnson isn't threatening No Deal to those who would prefer to Remain. He's promising No Deal.

    He’s also promising No Deal to the substantial minority that wants one. He has to deliver. From here any deal will be seen as a betrayal.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    I'm not sure why Scully was so excited - aren't the shifts broadly in line with the average national poll changes since when the last Welsh poll was taken? The same comments apply - Boris had a medium-sized bounce, mostly from the Brexit Party, LibDems a bit up, will these figures go up or down when the initial Borisgasm is over, who knows?

    I agree with you Nick.

    I expected a Plaid lead with Lib Dems maybe second but this poll is a big disappointment to Plaid, though is does confirm labour's fall which was widely expected
  • Main obstacle to BXP transfer to Tories is that the Tories - including WA backer Boris - are not trusted to follow through.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    What do people make of Dominic Cummings?

    If I told you I'd get a ban.

    Suffice it to say I think he's a man who believes his brilliant when he isn't and spends all his time trying to bridge the gap.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    IanB2 said:

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are making a fundamental error there

    You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales

    However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA

    As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas

    Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.

    I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree

    In what way?

    He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA

    Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.

    True. Although Brecon will be won for the LibDems because Tory remainers are switching to them. High time Labour remainers came to the same conclusion.

    It’s a process. I do think tactical voting will be massive next time around. One thing I wonder, though, is whether people who continue to identify as BXP, despite the Tories becoming the BXP, will go out and vote tactically for the Tories? There must be something stopping them making that final leap.

    If you are switching because of positive support for a principal policy, that’s not really tactical voting. Strictly, tactical voting is the choice of lesser evils.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.

    The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?

    Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
    PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
    I think not too, aren't about 25% of Welsh voters from outside Wales? Nonetheless PC control of the Assembly may well put substantial further strain on the Union.
    PC would be unlikely to gain a majority in the assembly

    They used to say that about the SNP in Scotland. Things change.

    There is absolutely no comparision between the SNP and Plaid

    It's like comparing Manchester City with Macclesfield Town
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are making a fundamental error there

    You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales

    However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA

    As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas

    Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.

    I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree

    In what way?

    He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA

    Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.

    True. Although Brecon will be won for the LibDems because Tory remainers are switching to them. High time Labour remainers came to the same conclusion.

    It’s a process. I do think tactical voting will be massive next time around. One thing I wonder, though, is whether people who continue to identify as BXP, despite the Tories becoming the BXP, will go out and vote tactically for the Tories? There must be something stopping them making that final leap.

    If you are switching because of positive support for a principal policy, that’s not really tactical voting. Strictly, tactical voting is the choice of lesser evils.
    Say you are Leave supporter in Sunderland. You are unlikely to identify with Johnson. You might with the BP or Labour on anything apart from Brexit. If that person votes Conservative, it will be for tactical reasons.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Applying UNS to Electoral calculus implied Wales result yields

    Labour 18 seats
    Tories 16 seats
    Brexit party 0
    Lib Dems 2
    Plaid 4
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    ydoethur said:

    What do people make of Dominic Cummings?

    If I told you I'd get a ban.

    Suffice it to say I think he's a man who believes his brilliant when he isn't and spends all his time trying to bridge the gap.
    Cummings is a near neighbour of mine and we are on nodding acquaintance terms.

    He spent some years in Russia, and I can report that his wife calls him “Domski”.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    Is the potential collapse of Labour in Wales and Scotland an indictment of Labour specifically, or the union in general? I get the feeling that it isn't just Labour is doing badly, but the structure of the union is fraying in such a way that more negatively impacts Labour.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.

    The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?

    Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
    PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
    I think not too, aren't about 25% of Welsh voters from outside Wales? Nonetheless PC control of the Assembly may well put substantial further strain on the Union.
    PC would be unlikely to gain a majority in the assembly

    They used to say that about the SNP in Scotland. Things change.

    There is absolutely no comparision between the SNP and Plaid

    It's like comparing Manchester City with Macclesfield Town

    Again, they used to laugh at the SNP. The political map of Britain is changing. I would not be confident of anything right now. What happens if the LD/PC/Green Brecon alliance is replicated for a GE? The LDs and Greens are very big on devolution, aren’t they? More of that is the next step for Wales.

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Pulpstar said:

    Applying UNS to Electoral calculus implied Wales result yields

    Labour 18 seats
    Tories 16 seats
    Brexit party 0
    Lib Dems 2
    Plaid 4

    Sounds about right were these figures to be replicated, although I would suggest LDs a couple higher and Tories a couple less.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?

    Miliband lost Scotland.

    Corbyn will not lose either London or Wales at the next GE either.

    When is Gardenwalker going to stop underestimating Corbyn?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,677

    Fingers crossed for a good Plaid Cymru showing.

    Why? My enemy's enemy is my friend? As Alex Salmond noted years ago, Welsh and Scottish nationalism are quite different.
    He is obviously just against colonialism
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,677

    Best prices - Next Scottish independence referendum result

    Yes EVS
    No EVS

    NO is far too short odds
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited July 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    Applying UNS to Electoral calculus implied Wales result yields

    Labour 18 seats
    Tories 16 seats
    Brexit party 0
    Lib Dems 2
    Plaid 4

    Sounds about right were these figures to be replicated, although I would suggest LDs a couple higher and Tories a couple less.
    Montgomeryshire is 28.8/Lib Dem 28.7 in the model so likely a Lib Dem gain in reality.
    Cardiff Central also probably a Lib Dem gain, they're 0.5 pts behind Labour on my model there.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Xl2fYLdwnm2wc09n3Kb8ZmNpk3Sa4Qcu6njhXH7mZck/edit?usp=sharing

    Wales tab
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.

    The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?

    Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
    PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
    I think not too, aren't about 25% of Welsh voters from outside Wales? Nonetheless PC control of the Assembly may well put substantial further strain on the Union.
    PC would be unlikely to gain a majority in the assembly

    They used to say that about the SNP in Scotland. Things change.

    There is absolutely no comparision between the SNP and Plaid

    It's like comparing Manchester City with Macclesfield Town

    Again, they used to laugh at the SNP. The political map of Britain is changing. I would not be confident of anything right now. What happens if the LD/PC/Green Brecon alliance is replicated for a GE? The LDs and Greens are very big on devolution, aren’t they? More of that is the next step for Wales.

    .

    The Green party in EnglandandWales is not pro-Devolution and explicitly voted against forming a separate Welsh Green party.

    There will be no long-term LD/Green/PC alliance.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited July 2019

    Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?

    It is a truely depressing thought for labour that Corbyn has lost Scotland, Wales and possibly London and more than that, has enabled the likelyhood of a no deal Brexit by not being an unequivocal remain backing leader of the opposition.

    He is a disaster for labour and the country at large as he could have made the difference over a second referendum.

    Not only is he responsible for 'Boris' but he has taken his party to a point that many of his mps must be terrified of a vonc as so many of their seats would be under attack from Boris on one side and the Lib Dems and SNP on the other
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are the

    Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.

    I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree

    In what way?

    He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA

    Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.

    True. Although Brecon will be won for the LibDems because Tory remainers are switching to them. High time Labour remainers came to the same conclusion.

    It’s a process. I do think tactical voting will be massive next time around. One thing I wonder, though, is whether people who continue to identify as BXP, despite the Tories becoming the BXP, will go out and vote tactically for the Tories? There must be something stopping them making that final leap.

    If you are switching because of positive support for a principal policy, that’s not really tactical voting. Strictly, tactical voting is the choice of lesser evils.
    Say you are Leave supporter in Sunderland. You are unlikely to identify with Johnson. You might with the BP or Labour on anything apart from Brexit. If that person votes Conservative, it will be for tactical reasons.
    For sure, if you identify with Farage but vote Tory because they can win, that’s tactical. But Southam was trying to claim former Labour voters who have switched LibDem because they oppose Brexit as tactical, when actually they are now simply LibDem voters. Of course, they might switch back. But then again they might not.

    Labour still wants to see a bloc of working class voters as its own “possession”, when the world is moving on, and class politics is becoming history.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    YouGov/ITV had a poll conducted 5-7 May 2017 which had the following result:
    Lab 35, Con 41, UKIP 4, PC 11, LD 7, Green 1.

    Whatever happened exactly a month later ? I have seen this before.

    Quite. Not exactly earth shattering to see such a poll unless it actually delivers this time.

    I still reckon the 'stop the Tories' line will protect labour from the worst of it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,717
    By my reckoning the last time the Tories won most votes and seats in Wales at a Westminster election was under Lord Derby in 1859, so if the Tories are ahead in Wales this morning that would be an absolutely amazing result.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.

    The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?

    Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
    PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
    I think not too, aren't about 25% of Welsh voters from outside Wales? Nonetheless PC control of the Assembly may well put substantial further strain on the Union.
    PC would be unlikely to gain a majority in the assembly

    They used to say that about the SNP in Scotland. Things change.

    There is absolutely no comparision between the SNP and Plaid

    It's like comparing Manchester City with Macclesfield Town

    Again, they used to laugh at the SNP. The political map of Britain is changing. I would not be confident of anything right now. What happens if the LD/PC/Green Brecon alliance is replicated for a GE? The LDs and Greens are very big on devolution, aren’t they? More of that is the next step for Wales.

    .

    The Green party in EnglandandWales is not pro-Devolution and explicitly voted against forming a separate Welsh Green party.

    There will be no long-term LD/Green/PC alliance.
    The Green Party is in favour of self determination. The Welsh members voted against having a separate party, so they didn't split.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?

    It is a truely depressing thought for labour that Corbyn has lost Scotland, Wales and possibly London and more than that, has enabled the likelyhood of a no deal Brexit by not being an unequivocal remain backing leader of the opposition.

    He is a disaster for labour and the country at large as he could have made the difference over a second referendum.

    Not only is he responsible for 'Boris' but he has taken his party to a point that many of his mps must be terrified of a vonc as so many of their seats would be under attack from Boris on one side and the Lib Dems and SNP on the other
    I completely agree.
    He is both despicable and inept.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,717
    Certainly likely that Labour could come behind not only the Tories and LDs but the Brexit Party too in the Brecon and Radnor by election on Thursday
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly likely that Labour could come behind not only the Tories and LDs but the Brexit Party too in the Brecon and Radnor by election on Thursday

    Would be good if they did.
    Labour needs the strongest of wake-up calls.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,717

    Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?

    Miliband lost Scotland.

    Corbyn will not lose either London or Wales at the next GE either.

    When is Gardenwalker going to stop underestimating Corbyn?
    The LDs beat Labour in London in the European Parliament elections
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    edited July 2019

    Alister Jack said he would fund breakaway Scottish Conservative Party

    The new Scottish Secretary offered to fund a breakaway Scottish Conservative Party, it has emerged.

    Alister Jack, who built up his multi-million-pound wealth through his tent-hire and self-storage businesses, said he would put forward “significant sums of money” to back 2011 Scottish Tory leadership contender Murdo Fraser’s plan to split from the UK Conservatives in order to “detoxify” the party’s brand in Scotland.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/alister-jack-said-he-would-fund-breakaway-scottish-conservative-party-1-4972564/amp

    Detoxification carried out by 'Queen's 11' Murdo and self described huntin', fishin' toff No Deal Jack?
    That'll be curing arsenic poisoning with Novichok then.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are making a fundamental error there

    You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales

    However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA

    As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
    No, I am not. Labour's decline lately is because of Leavers de-camping to BXP. Labour in its current low numbers is as much Remain as Tory voters are Leave.
    Look at you. A Remainer who will vote Brexit, if there is a deal.
    Most Labour voters [ current ones ] will vote Remain. Kinnock and Yorkshire Labour MPs are reading the polls wrong. To be fair, only a handful of Labour MPs are clamouring for a deal. If they all did, we'd have 150 Labour MPs doing it. Not Flint or Mann [ who are Tories anyway ], Hoey [DUP].
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265

    I'm not sure why Scully was so excited - aren't the shifts broadly in line with the average national poll changes since when the last Welsh poll was taken? The same comments apply - Boris had a medium-sized bounce, mostly from the Brexit Party, LibDems a bit up, will these figures go up or down when the initial Borisgasm is over, who knows?

    I agree with you Nick.

    I expected a Plaid lead with Lib Dems maybe second but this poll is a big disappointment to Plaid, though is does confirm labour's fall which was widely expected
    Uh.. Plaid are in the lead (in Assembly) and I am sure they will be delighted with that - altjough could do better. But with Labour vote deserting in 3 or 4 different directions noone is getting in front...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,677

    TGOHF said:

    Fingers crossed for a good Plaid Cymru showing.

    Why? My enemy's enemy is my friend? As Alex Salmond noted years ago, Welsh and Scottish nationalism are quite different.
    Plaid is our sister party. They speak at our conference and vice versa. We share whip and resources at Westminster and European Parliament. Our activists help each other. Indeed I think our membership even entitles is to attend branch meetings and vote if we live in the other country. We certainly had a PC student activist fully involved in our branch for a while.
    Everyone on here keeps telling us that the Conservatives are an English nationalist party - perhaps you should partner up with them too ?

    Although this Welsh poll doesn’t support that argument much..
    Nope. You’ve lost me. I’ve read what you’ve written five times now and can’t make head nor tail of it. Could you please write in clear and concise English so that we have a glimmer of hope of understanding what point you are trying to make.
    Harry , hates Scotland , and lives in the 17th century , he is your real ex pat unionist Scot.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968
    Weren't we told that Boris Johnson was hated outside of south-east England ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly likely that Labour could come behind not only the Tories and LDs but the Brexit Party too in the Brecon and Radnor by election on Thursday

    Would be good if they did.
    Labour needs the strongest of wake-up calls.
    That wouldn't be a wake up call. If Labour finish higher than fourth, that would be the surprise.

    The only reason they won't be sixth is because Plaid and the Greens aren't standing.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?

    Miliband lost Scotland.

    Corbyn will not lose either London or Wales at the next GE either.

    When is Gardenwalker going to stop underestimating Corbyn?
    I suspect that is right. This poll is not good for Labour, but in practice they won't lose (m)any seats in a GE.

    Gardenwalker has never even visited Wales. His world is bounded by the M25.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    What do people make of Dominic Cummings? I've tried reading some of his blog but what exactly does he WANT? One would expect politics to be about an end point from which you work backwards to determine the means.

    I can't get past the idea of the outsider who turns into a wrecker. Him and Boris make an odd couple.

    He wants to WIN.

    Which make him and BoZo best buddies.

    The destruction after the win doesn't interest either of them.
This discussion has been closed.