This poll compared to 2017 Welsh result shows Labour -27% Con -9% Brexit +18% Lib Dem +12% PC +5% Perhaps this is a better perspective?
So how much of that 9% which had switched from Labour to Brexit would switch to the Tories- I suspect it would be about0%
I am not at all sure that labour's lost votes are coming back anytime soon irrespective of Brexit
Here in Wales they have been in government too long, have a failing NHS and education system and are now led by a Corbyn acolyte who is utterly hopeless
Labour need to go into opposition in Wales for the sake of the country and a coalition of parties are likely to see that happen
This poll compared to 2017 Welsh result shows Labour -27% Con -9% Brexit +18% Lib Dem +12% PC +5% Perhaps this is a better perspective?
So how much of that 9% which had switched from Labour to Brexit would switch to the Tories- I suspect it would be about0%
I am not at all sure that labour's lost votes are coming back anytime soon irrespective of Brexit
Here in Wales they have been in government too long, have a failing NHS and education system and are now led by a Corbyn acolyte who is utterly hopeless
Labour need to go into opposition in Wales for the sake of the country and a coalition of parties are likely to see that happen
I wasn’t talking about Labour. Boris needs to grab the Brexit vote and I suspect as in the North East that Brexit vote really isn’t willing to vote Tory.
If people would like to know what a Cumbrian farmer thinks of a No Deal exit and the disastrous effect it will have on British agriculture and nature (and the steps we could take to mitigate climate change) head over to @herdyshepherd1 (James Rebanks.
What do people make of Dominic Cummings? I've tried reading some of his blog but what exactly does he WANT? One would expect politics to be about an end point from which you work backwards to determine the means.
He seems like a strange kind of anarchist wanting to expose and bring down the established order and the frauds who benefit from it. But for what?....
I think Boris is a fool, yet it's a bit rich blaming him when the reason we're heading for no deal is that MPs repeatedly refused to back the deal (having endorsed leaving the EU).
Pro-EU MPs have cunningly led us to this point. The difference between them and the ERG is that the ERG is actually heading in the direction they want to.
Pro-EU MPs have cunningly led us to this point. The difference between them and the ERG is that the ERG is actually heading in the direction they want to.
What do people make of Dominic Cummings? I've tried reading some of his blog but what exactly does he WANT? One would expect politics to be about an end point from which you work backwards to determine the means.
He seems like a strange kind of anarchist wanting to expose and bring down the established order and the frauds who benefit from it. But for what?....
He wants to bring everything down.
He's got a point. The whole British establishment is a putrid and shambolic edifice that warrants complete destruction.
The government needs to be careful with its No Deal mega-propaganda blitz. The Leavers might see it and think: um, this is all a bit shit. I'd suggest sticking to the sunny side of things. Perhaps a DVD with lots of soft-focus footage of Boris prancing around the Fens to the strains of Nimrod.
Conservatives have often gone on spending splurges when the need arises, conservativism may not be socialism but it is not always about balanced budgets either, certainly not populist Boris type conservatism see Reagan, Cheney or Berlusconi or indeed Trump, that is more classical liberalism
Unfortunately, it's called politics as well - the bribing or financial persuasion of voters by means of tax cuts and big amounts of public spending - bribing people with their own money to get them to support you.
Boris also has the May characteristic of seeing a problem and thinking it can only be solved either by a) more money or b) more Government or c) both. Indeed, he is as much as interventionist in the Heseltine mode as she was.
Apart from his view on Brexit and a sense of humour, there's a lot of similarities between May and Johnson but the public persona is different enough to convince the politically unaware we've had another change of Government - our fifth in nine and a bit years (not quite Italy in the 70s and 80s to be fair).
This poll compared to 2017 Welsh result shows Labour -27% Con -9% Brexit +18% Lib Dem +12% PC +5% Perhaps this is a better perspective?
Seat totals?
Maybe with these views abounding we must have a semi-Fascist Farage govt and a SWP Milne, so sorry Corbyn, govt before the UK sees sense and adopts PR.
To its credit the Welsh govt found the time to renationalise the train franchise
Mr. Dawning, that's possible, but given how rubbish Parliament has been at supporting any of the three options I'd be surprised if anything came of it.
However, had May made more preparations for no deal, said propaganda etc would've helped her chances of getting her deal passed.
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
The problem with this strategy is that by taking extreme positions on the backstop etc, Johnson isn't threatening No Deal to those who would prefer to Remain. He's promising No Deal.
He’s also promising No Deal to the substantial minority that wants one. He has to deliver. From here any deal will be seen as a betrayal.
Yes. It's hard to see what Johnson's policy is, beyond clobbering the Brexit Party. He's unlikely even to succeed in that because he has to deliver something and they don't.
It's possible Johnson does actually believe he can get a deal with the EU that doesn't involve the backstop.
Barring idiocy (which may be quite likely) the scenario that makes most sense is Johnson thinks he can get a deal through both EU and ERG. The only deal I can think of that could work is an open ended standstill transition where we achieve none of Mays red lines during the transition, but the ERG get a seat at the table for the UK-EU longer term future instead, and Boris gets to claim success.
If this happens then in the short term it is no worse than Mays deal. It would also explain why leading Brexiteers, including Boris, have kept on making the mistake that you have a transition period without the WA. Again idiocy may be the answer.
Well, as someone has already said, we've been here before. Polls showing a Conservative lead in Wales are nothing new - 41-35 just before the 2017 GE as I recall which was stupendously accurate as it ended up 36-49.
5-party politics in Wales - a good advertisement for plural democracy. The story is of course the collapse of the Labour vote from 49% in 2017 to 22% now. The Con-Lab vote share is down 36.5% since 2017 which is slightly greater than other areas.
The swing from Labour to Conservative is 9%, the swing from Labour to the LDs is 19% and the swing from Conservative to :LD is 10.5%. The four UK polls published on Saturday evening showed the Con-LD swing ranging from 10.5% (Opinium) to 13% (ComRes).
The Numbercruncher poll for Brecon & Radnor, conducted before Boris Johnson ascended to the pit of Downing Street, showed a 17% swing from Conservative to Lib Dem so clearly there has been a recovery of sorts in the Conservative position though not perhaps as dramatic as some might have hoped.
On a 10.5% swing Brecon & Radnor becomes very close but as we know applying UNS to individual seats is a recipe for punting disaster. The questions for me regarding B&R are first, the scale of the Labour collapse (they polled 17% in 2017 but could we be looking at a lost deposit?) and second, the degree to which TBP will eat into BOTH the Labour and Conservative votes.
B&R will be close. I don't think too many postal ballots went in before Johnson became PM.
The other thing is people who sent postal ballots in at the beginning are the true believers, the party loyalists.
Those who are uncertain or who are likely to switch (for whatever reason), delay sending in their ballot.
My guess is B&R will be closer than many LDs think. Few constituencies in Wales are a natural match to their support base any more.
B&R has *often* been close- several recent 3-figure majorities and once only 52. It's why the Tory fancies his chances, because his majority was quite a bit larger than the Lib Dem majorities. So of course its a tight seat, but I do not think that Boris plays very well in the Welsh borders and although tight I stand by my previous guess.
What do people make of Dominic Cummings? I've tried reading some of his blog but what exactly does he WANT? One would expect politics to be about an end point from which you work backwards to determine the means.
He seems like a strange kind of anarchist wanting to expose and bring down the established order and the frauds who benefit from it. But for what?....
He wants to bring everything down.
He's got a point. The whole British establishment is a putrid and shambolic edifice that warrants complete destruction.
Well, as someone has already said, we've been here before. Polls showing a Conservative lead in Wales are nothing new - 41-35 just before the 2017 GE as I recall which was stupendously accurate as it ended up 36-49.
5-party politics in Wales - a good advertisement for plural democracy. The story is of course the collapse of the Labour vote from 49% in 2017 to 22% now. The Con-Lab vote share is down 36.5% since 2017 which is slightly greater than other areas.
The swing from Labour to Conservative is 9%, the swing from Labour to the LDs is 19% and the swing from Conservative to :LD is 10.5%. The four UK polls published on Saturday evening showed the Con-LD swing ranging from 10.5% (Opinium) to 13% (ComRes).
The Numbercruncher poll for Brecon & Radnor, conducted before Boris Johnson ascended to the pit of Downing Street, showed a 17% swing from Conservative to Lib Dem so clearly there has been a recovery of sorts in the Conservative position though not perhaps as dramatic as some might have hoped.
On a 10.5% swing Brecon & Radnor becomes very close but as we know applying UNS to individual seats is a recipe for punting disaster. The questions for me regarding B&R are first, the scale of the Labour collapse (they polled 17% in 2017 but could we be looking at a lost deposit?) and second, the degree to which TBP will eat into BOTH the Labour and Conservative votes.
B&R will be close. I don't think too many postal ballots went in before Johnson became PM.
The other thing is people who sent postal ballots in at the beginning are the true believers, the party loyalists.
Those who are uncertain or who are likely to switch (for whatever reason), delay sending in their ballot.
My guess is B&R will be closer than many LDs think. Few constituencies in Wales are a natural match to their support base any more.
B&R has *often* been close- several recent 3-figure majorities and once only 52. It's why the Tory fancies his chances, because his majority was quite a bit larger than the Lib Dem majorities. So of course its a tight seat, but I do not think that Boris plays very well in the Welsh borders and although tight I stand by my previous guess.
In general, Boris will not play well in Wales, but actually the pretty border spa towns in B&R are where he will play best.
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
The problem with this strategy is that by taking extreme positions on the backstop etc, Johnson isn't threatening No Deal to those who would prefer to Remain. He's promising No Deal.
He’s also promising No Deal to the substantial minority that wants one. He has to deliver. From here any deal will be seen as a betrayal.
Yes. It's hard to see what Johnson's policy is, beyond clobbering the Brexit Party. He's unlikely even to succeed in that because he has to deliver something and they don't.
It's possible Johnson does actually believe he can get a deal with the EU that doesn't involve the backstop.
Barring idiocy (which may be quite likely) the scenario that makes most sense is Johnson thinks he can get a deal through both EU and ERG. The only deal I can think of that could work is an open ended standstill transition where we achieve none of Mays red lines during the transition, but the ERG get a seat at the table for the UK-EU longer term future instead, and Boris gets to claim success.
If this happens then in the short term it is no worse than Mays deal. It would also explain why leading Brexiteers, including Boris, have kept on making the mistake that you have a transition period without the WA. Again idiocy may be the answer.
Boris' strategy is to ramp up no deal preparations and wait for the EU to blink.
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
Overall the polling evidence from the weekend does not support your first paragraph - Yougov excepted. Indeed two pollsters - Comres and Opinium - imply a small swing from Con To Lab compared with 2017. In addition, many of the Tory gains from the SNP could be reversed.
Mr. P, curious how you focus on a minority rather than a majority of those who opposed the deal.
Mr. Rentool, I wonder about that. All three options are still on the table, but my thinking is coloured by my perspective on Boris, which is that he's a wretched egomaniacal incompetent.
Many of my remainer friends are now leavers. Remainers on this blog fail to understand the depth of frustration amongst the public that this is all still dragging on - they want it to be over. BoJo will be rewarded for bringing it to a conclusion.
That doesnt fit the world view of entitled, metropolitan remainers but it is a fact, as demonstrated by this poll.
Many of my remainer friends are now leavers. Remainers on this blog fail to understand the depth of frustration amongst the public that this is all still dragging on - they want it to be over. BoJo will be rewarded for bringing it to a conclusion.
My guess is B&R will be closer than many LDs think. Few constituencies in Wales are a natural match to their support base any more.
On Friday, the Conservatives will likely be regretting choosing the convicted fraudster as their candidate.
One or two people are throwing words like "close" around but are we talking 1985 by-election close (559 vote majority) or even closer than that?
The national polls are moving. It is hard to hit a moving target.
I think the LDs will still take the seat, although the majority will be less than 1500, and perhaps much less.
I think the Tories will take it back in the GE that is coming.
I am a bit surprised you think that in view of the seat having been held by the LibDems for 25 of the last 34 years! In addition, when a seat changes hand at a by election the victor usually receives a boost at the following general election - eg Copeland- Crewe & Natwich - Norwich North.
So a short term boost for the tories at the expense of brexit while Labour is losing to the Lib Dems. Not earth shattering really it’s the same mess as the rest of England
So basically on this the Tories should win B&R. Correct ? Because PC and Green changes cancel each other out.
On this actually Scully gives B&R to the Liberal Democrats at a General Election, never mind a by-election.
It's one reason why I'm a bit sceptical of it.
OK. Comparing changes to GE2017, LD/PC/GR alliance should win. But we do not know the "bounce" in B&R itself. However, the poll may not be that wrong at the present time.
Again, do not assume that just because the party leadership has endorsed a candidate from another party that their voters will robotically follow, especially in Brecon and Radnor. They are just as likely to abstain, and not much less likely to vote for someone else.
Totally agree. We saw that very clearly re- the UKIP vote in 2017 which failed to transfer to the Tories on the scale so many had assumed.
Barring idiocy (which may be quite likely) the scenario that makes most sense is Johnson thinks he can get a deal through both EU and ERG. The only deal I can think of that could work is an open ended standstill transition where we achieve none of Mays red lines during the transition, but the ERG get a seat at the table for the UK-EU longer term future instead, and Boris gets to claim success.
If this happens then in the short term it is no worse than Mays deal. It would also explain why leading Brexiteers, including Boris, have kept on making the mistake that you have a transition period without the WA. Again idiocy may be the answer.
That does sort of make sense when you consider the rampant confusion between the final trade deal and the deal on leaving to start negotiating the final trade deal.
If the backstop becomes an indefinite transition then perhaps Boris can get away with arguing that the EU have conceded a transition without a "deal" and the EU can shake their heads in wonder at all the concessions they had to make to May that they've then regained from Boris.
However, I really doubt that the ERG would agree to an indefinite transition.
My guess is B&R will be closer than many LDs think. Few constituencies in Wales are a natural match to their support base any more.
On Friday, the Conservatives will likely be regretting choosing the convicted fraudster as their candidate.
One or two people are throwing words like "close" around but are we talking 1985 by-election close (559 vote majority) or even closer than that?
The national polls are moving. It is hard to hit a moving target.
I think the LDs will still take the seat, although the majority will be less than 1500, and perhaps much less.
I think the Tories will take it back in the GE that is coming.
I am a bit surprised you think that in view of the seat having been held by the LibDems for 25 of the last 34 years! In addition, when a seat changes hand at a by election the victor usually receives a boost at the following general election - eg Copeland- Crewe & Natwich - Norwich North.
A LibDem farmer (Williams) held this farming seat, and before him, a LibDem farmer/lecturer in agriculture (Livsey).
Dodds (a former charity worker from Richmond) is not a natural fit to the B&R constituency, and personalities matter in these Welsh seats.
I assume that even the Tories are not daft enough to run Davies in a GE.
So, the GE candidate will not have the millstone of a criminal conviction hanging round him.
I normally get frustrated by people asking idiotic questions re voting registration and voting itself, but here I go with one:
When I get the household enquiry form normally nothing has changed and I go thru' the telephone option and do it in seconds. This time however I had a change (removing one of my children) so went online. The 3 security questions are pointless as they are all on the form and I could remove and add people willy nilly! There has to be something more than this? I assume there are spot checks? The interception of a few hundred forms (that nobody would miss) could be dramatic, although likely to be picked up on polling day, although if you focused on non voters from the marked register it could work.
Many of my remainer friends are now leavers. Remainers on this blog fail to understand the depth of frustration amongst the public that this is all still dragging on - they want it to be over. BoJo will be rewarded for bringing it to a conclusion.
Leaving with No Deal is not the end.
That's when the real fighting starts
Yeah, the idea that leaving without a deal will bring Brexit to a conclusion is lunacy.
Since we're all into WW2 comparisons nowadays, as part of the government's oh-so-subtle efforts at brainwashing, no deal will end Brexit in the same way the fall of France ended the war in Europe. This is not even the end of the beginning.
Many of my remainer friends are now leavers. Remainers on this blog fail to understand the depth of frustration amongst the public that this is all still dragging on - they want it to be over. BoJo will be rewarded for bringing it to a conclusion.
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
Overall the polling evidence from the weekend does not support your first paragraph - Yougov excepted. Indeed two pollsters - Comres and Opinium - imply a small swing from Con To Lab compared with 2017. In addition, many of the Tory gains from the SNP could be reversed.
Some would call it blind loyalty Justin. Labour are in a bad place in Wales and they deserve to be
Dreadful on NHS and education plus too long in government
My guess is B&R will be closer than many LDs think. Few constituencies in Wales are a natural match to their support base any more.
On Friday, the Conservatives will likely be regretting choosing the convicted fraudster as their candidate.
I agree. I think they could have held the seat with a fresh candidate.
Well, they could have shifted the odds enough to make it worth betting on the Lib.Dem ... The current prices seem no value at all.
On a trip into Powys last Wed, the L.Dem posters were abundant. I'd agree that there were half as many Tory posters - they don't put posters up as much as L.Dem voters - but they all seemed to be accounted for by two or three farmers.
25 posters don't signify 25 Tory votes, unless some of the sheep have acquired the franchise.
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
Overall the polling evidence from the weekend does not support your first paragraph - Yougov excepted. Indeed two pollsters - Comres and Opinium - imply a small swing from Con To Lab compared with 2017. In addition, many of the Tory gains from the SNP could be reversed.
Which polls are you quoting? The Comres poll over the weekend ive seen actually shows a swing from Lab to Con.
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
Overall the polling evidence from the weekend does not support your first paragraph - Yougov excepted. Indeed two pollsters - Comres and Opinium - imply a small swing from Con To Lab compared with 2017. In addition, many of the Tory gains from the SNP could be reversed.
Some would call it blind loyalty Justin. Labour are in a bad place in Wales and they deserve to be
Dreadful on NHS and education plus too long in government
Your last line also applies to the Conservatives in the UK.
I normally get frustrated by people asking idiotic questions re voting registration and voting itself, but here I go with one:
When I get the household enquiry form normally nothing has changed and I go thru' the telephone option and do it in seconds. This time however I had a change (removing one of my children) so went online. The 3 security questions are pointless as they are all on the form and I could remove and add people willy nilly! There has to be something more than this? I assume there are spot checks? The interception of a few hundred forms (that nobody would miss) could be dramatic, although likely to be picked up on polling day, although if you focused on non voters from the marked register it could work.
What am I missing?
I think our system is generally set up to make it as easy as possible for people entitled to vote to do so, at the expense of making electoral fraud theoretically also easier, and then relying on the opposing parties to police each other to detect any attempts at such fraud.
The alternative is that security you introduce to make fraud theoretically more difficult also makes it practically more difficult to vote, and so then some people entitled to do so are not able to do so. And this doesn't have any practical benefit because it's hard to commit electoral fraud and for your opponent not to notice.
Many of my remainer friends are now leavers. Remainers on this blog fail to understand the depth of frustration amongst the public that this is all still dragging on - they want it to be over. BoJo will be rewarded for bringing it to a conclusion.
Leaving with No Deal is not the end.
That's when the real fighting starts
Yeah, the idea that leaving without a deal will bring Brexit to a conclusion is lunacy.
Since we're all into WW2 comparisons nowadays, as part of the government's oh-so-subtle efforts at brainwashing, no deal will end Brexit in the same way the fall of France ended the war in Europe. This is not even the end of the beginning.
The end of the beginning was Monty seeing off Rommell at El Alamein.
I was going to say that in WW2, at least the PM would attend his own daily Cobra meetings rather than a jolly in Scotland, but now I think of it, Churchill spent a considerable time abroad at various summits, leaving Attlee to run the show at home.
Barring idiocy (which may be quite likely) the scenario that makes most sense is Johnson thinks he can get a deal through both EU and ERG. The only deal I can think of that could work is an open ended standstill transition where we achieve none of Mays red lines during the transition, but the ERG get a seat at the table for the UK-EU longer term future instead, and Boris gets to claim success.
If this happens then in the short term it is no worse than Mays deal. It would also explain why leading Brexiteers, including Boris, have kept on making the mistake that you have a transition period without the WA. Again idiocy may be the answer.
That does sort of make sense when you consider the rampant confusion between the final trade deal and the deal on leaving to start negotiating the final trade deal.
If the backstop becomes an indefinite transition then perhaps Boris can get away with arguing that the EU have conceded a transition without a "deal" and the EU can shake their heads in wonder at all the concessions they had to make to May that they've then regained from Boris.
However, I really doubt that the ERG would agree to an indefinite transition.
The cost of ERG agreement may have been their representation in cabinet.
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
Overall the polling evidence from the weekend does not support your first paragraph - Yougov excepted. Indeed two pollsters - Comres and Opinium - imply a small swing from Con To Lab compared with 2017. In addition, many of the Tory gains from the SNP could be reversed.
Some would call it blind loyalty Justin. Labour are in a bad place in Wales and they deserve to be
Dreadful on NHS and education plus too long in government
Your last line also applies to the Conservatives in the UK.
In England do you mean as the NHS and Education is devolved to Scotland and Wales
And in England the NHS is getting 20 billion from this government and Boris is promising a big upgrade in the pupil premium
According to my spreadsheet Brecon and Radnor should produce
LD 33.4 Con 28.6 BRP 19.8 Plaid 9.1 Lab 5.7 Green 1.7
If you assume all Plaid votes head Lib Dem and Green votes head Labour,
LD 43 Con 29 BRP 20 Lab 7
is yielded. I reckon that'll be reasonably close.
A good night for the Tories would be being further ahead of the Brexit party than the Lib Dems are ahead of them.
Lab 7!!! I know if it is not the heartlands but should the opposition really get 7% in a by-election anywhere? Pretty confident it would be the lowest ever by 10% or so
Well, they could have shifted the odds enough to make it worth betting on the Lib.Dem ... The current prices seem no value at all.
On a trip into Powys last Wed, the L.Dem posters were abundant. I'd agree that there were half as many Tory posters - they don't put posters up as much as L.Dem voters - but they all seemed to be accounted for by two or three farmers.
25 posters don't signify 25 Tory votes, unless some of the sheep have acquired the franchise.
Welshpool was still festooned with 'Vote Dodds' LibDem posters, even as the LibDems took a hiding in Montgomeryshire in 2017.
According to my spreadsheet Brecon and Radnor should produce
LD 33.4 Con 28.6 BRP 19.8 Plaid 9.1 Lab 5.7 Green 1.7
If you assume all Plaid votes head Lib Dem and Green votes head Labour,
LD 43 Con 29 BRP 20 Lab 7
is yielded. I reckon that'll be reasonably close.
A good night for the Tories would be being further ahead of the Brexit party than the Lib Dems are ahead of them.
Lab 7!!! I know if it is not the heartlands but should the opposition really get 7% in a by-election anywhere? Pretty confident it would be the lowest ever by 10% or so
Many of my remainer friends are now leavers. Remainers on this blog fail to understand the depth of frustration amongst the public that this is all still dragging on - they want it to be over. BoJo will be rewarded for bringing it to a conclusion.
That doesnt fit the world view of entitled, metropolitan remainers but it is a fact, as demonstrated by this poll.
The only way to make it stop is to stop the process of trying to leave on shitty terms and accept Cameron's compromise, or the deal we have with four opt outs. However, as people only appreciate such points by talking to people they trust, probably the longer this continues the more the country gets divided into warring factions, Remainia and Brexitland.
Norway minus the Fjords might have worked in July 2016 as a good compromise of the 48% and 52%. On the last three years' experience, I'd maintain that Brussels democracy with PR and checks and balances easily beats Whitehall farce. Probably so would the other 6M who signed the petition and most of them are probably outside the M25 so are neither entitled nor metropolitan.
Many of my remainer friends are now leavers. Remainers on this blog fail to understand the depth of frustration amongst the public that this is all still dragging on - they want it to be over. BoJo will be rewarded for bringing it to a conclusion.
Leaving with No Deal is not the end.
That's when the real fighting starts
Yeah, the idea that leaving without a deal will bring Brexit to a conclusion is lunacy.
Since we're all into WW2 comparisons nowadays, as part of the government's oh-so-subtle efforts at brainwashing, no deal will end Brexit in the same way the fall of France ended the war in Europe. This is not even the end of the beginning.
Of course it wont be the end of it. But the position will be a lot clearer than it is today and the referendum result will have been honoured.
I fear far more for the future if the result is denied by a minority refusing to accept it. Perhaps you people think another vote and a result to remain just takes us back to "ex ante" with nothing changing. If so, you are badly deluded.
According to my spreadsheet Brecon and Radnor should produce
LD 33.4 Con 28.6 BRP 19.8 Plaid 9.1 Lab 5.7 Green 1.7
If you assume all Plaid votes head Lib Dem and Green votes head Labour,
LD 43 Con 29 BRP 20 Lab 7
is yielded. I reckon that'll be reasonably close.
A good night for the Tories would be being further ahead of the Brexit party than the Lib Dems are ahead of them.
Lab 7!!! I know if it is not the heartlands but should the opposition really get 7% in a by-election anywhere? Pretty confident it would be the lowest ever by 10% or so
Those figures point to a three to five k majority or more don’t they?
We have been here before - and,of course, it is Yougov. The crossbreaks of other pollsters are nowhere near these figures.
To summarize all polling is declared good for Labour and bad for the Tories - whatever it says. There - saves you bothering to post any more garbage for a while.
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
Overall the polling evidence from the weekend does not support your first paragraph - Yougov excepted. Indeed two pollsters - Comres and Opinium - imply a small swing from Con To Lab compared with 2017. In addition, many of the Tory gains from the SNP could be reversed.
Which polls are you quoting? The Comres poll over the weekend ive seen actually shows a swing from Lab to Con.
Not compared with 2017 when the Tory lead at the GE was 2.5%. Comres now has them just 1% ahead with Opinium giving them a 2% lead. On the basis of just those two polls there would be Labour gains from the Tories. Moreover, Governments usually lose ground in the course of an election campaign.
We have been here before - and,of course, it is Yougov. The crossbreaks of other pollsters are nowhere near these figures.
To summarize all polling is declared good for Labour and bad for the Tories - whatever it says. There - saves you bothering to post any more garbage for a while.
Why not try checking the data for yourself? Maybe you are simply content to parade your ignorance to those far more psephologically aware than you are.
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
Overall the polling evidence from the weekend does not support your first paragraph - Yougov excepted. Indeed two pollsters - Comres and Opinium - imply a small swing from Con To Lab compared with 2017. In addition, many of the Tory gains from the SNP could be reversed.
Some would call it blind loyalty Justin. Labour are in a bad place in Wales and they deserve to be
Dreadful on NHS and education plus too long in government
To a large extent , I agree with you on this. Devolution was a serious mistake by Labour in Wales - as it proved to be in Scotland.
Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?
Miliband lost Scotland.
Corbyn will not lose either London or Wales at the next GE either.
When is Gardenwalker going to stop underestimating Corbyn?
I suspect that is right. This poll is not good for Labour, but in practice they won't lose (m)any seats in a GE.
Gardenwalker has never even visited Wales. His world is bounded by the M25.
Unnecessarily offensive? Check. Factually incorrect? Check. Fuelled by an obsessive jealousy of anyone who doesn’t live in a mud hut outside Lampeter? Check.
We have gone up in the world. Last time, you had the Welsh living in dunghills in the Valleys.
My point was that your original claim was demonstrably incorrect about Scotland, and not to be trusted for Wales -- a country with which you have barely no acquaintanceship, as you believe we all live in dunghills and mud huts.
I do sometimes wonder whether why there is so much casual racism against the Welsh and Scots on this blog.
Ybard, it is inbred , fed from birth through media , politicians , establishment , etc.
Many of my remainer friends are now leavers. Remainers on this blog fail to understand the depth of frustration amongst the public that this is all still dragging on - they want it to be over. BoJo will be rewarded for bringing it to a conclusion.
That doesnt fit the world view of entitled, metropolitan remainers but it is a fact, as demonstrated by this poll.
The only way to make it stop is to stop the process of trying to leave on shitty terms and accept Cameron's compromise, or the deal we have with four opt outs. However, as people only appreciate such points by talking to people they trust, probably the longer this continues the more the country gets divided into warring factions, Remainia and Brexitland.
Norway minus the Fjords might have worked in July 2016 as a good compromise of the 48% and 52%. On the last three years' experience, I'd maintain that Brussels democracy with PR and checks and balances easily beats Whitehall farce. Probably so would the other 6M who signed the petition and most of them are probably outside the M25 so are neither entitled nor metropolitan.
Nor able to vote. So their relevance to the actual numbers in this is zero.
Coming to it when you get done for fraud on your expenses and get voted back in, if it happens it says a lot about Wales and not in a good way. Any normal person would vote for anybody but the fraudster.
Yet the Scots keep voting in those SNP MPs......
Name any current SNP MP or MSP who has been done for fraud on expenses or anything else. Think you will find they have principles and any wrong doers are out immediately unlike the nasty party who would have few left if they got rid of their bad uns.
Well, they could have shifted the odds enough to make it worth betting on the Lib.Dem ... The current prices seem no value at all.
On a trip into Powys last Wed, the L.Dem posters were abundant. I'd agree that there were half as many Tory posters - they don't put posters up as much as L.Dem voters - but they all seemed to be accounted for by two or three farmers.
25 posters don't signify 25 Tory votes, unless some of the sheep have acquired the franchise.
Welshpool was still festooned with 'Vote Dodds' LibDem posters, even as the LibDems took a hiding in Montgomeryshire in 2017.
There are fewer LD posters in B&R than there were in Witney during the 2016 by-election. And as few visible Tory (or Brexit or UKIP) campaigners. But the Tories still won Witney convincingly
My weekend canvassing in B&R went strongly LD, but that's just one canvasser. The truth is: LibDems campaign in greater numbers, and with more enthusiasm, than their opposition.
On this occasion, my suspicion is that the LibDems will win. But posters in the windows and activists on the streets are a weapon, not a result.
Conservatives have often gone on spending splurges when the need arises, conservativism may not be socialism but it is not always about balanced budgets either, certainly not populist Boris type conservatism see Reagan, Cheney or Berlusconi or indeed Trump, that is more classical liberalism
Unfortunately, it's called politics as well - the bribing or financial persuasion of voters by means of tax cuts and big amounts of public spending - bribing people with their own money to get them to support you.
Boris also has the May characteristic of seeing a problem and thinking it can only be solved either by a) more money or b) more Government or c) both. Indeed, he is as much as interventionist in the Heseltine mode as she was.
Apart from his view on Brexit and a sense of humour, there's a lot of similarities between May and Johnson but the public persona is different enough to convince the politically unaware we've had another change of Government - our fifth in nine and a bit years (not quite Italy in the 70s and 80s to be fair).
Nothing spent yet and once he is safe it will all disappear. Anyone taken in by this snake oil salesmen and his band of thugs is not the full shilling. Fine words butter no parsnips.
Well, they could have shifted the odds enough to make it worth betting on the Lib.Dem ... The current prices seem no value at all.
On a trip into Powys last Wed, the L.Dem posters were abundant. I'd agree that there were half as many Tory posters - they don't put posters up as much as L.Dem voters - but they all seemed to be accounted for by two or three farmers.
25 posters don't signify 25 Tory votes, unless some of the sheep have acquired the franchise.
Welshpool was still festooned with 'Vote Dodds' LibDem posters, even as the LibDems took a hiding in Montgomeryshire in 2017.
There are fewer LD posters in B&R than there were in Witney during the 2016 by-election. And as few visible Tory (or Brexit or UKIP) campaigners. But the Tories still won Witney convincingly
My weekend canvassing in B&R went strongly LD, but that's just one canvasser. The truth is: LibDems campaign in greater numbers, and with more enthusiasm, than their opposition.
On this occasion, my suspicion is that the LibDems will win. But posters in the windows and activists on the streets are a weapon, not a result.
Given no last minute pleas for help or money things must be going terribly wrong.
We're at a historic moment with Boris and his No Deal. If the result is anything other than Heaven on Earth, then I can't see Boris's Tories winning a Westminster seat any time soon. Nigel will pounce, proclaiming Boris to be a bumbling oaf who buggered Brexit through a combination of incompetence and vanity. The Leave voters will then flock to TPB in droves, convinced that Nigel is, and always was, their one true savour. Boris's support will be eviscerated.
We have been here before - and,of course, it is Yougov. The crossbreaks of other pollsters are nowhere near these figures.
To summarize all polling is declared good for Labour and bad for the Tories - whatever it says. There - saves you bothering to post any more garbage for a while.
Why not try checking the data for yourself? Maybe you are simply content to parade your ignorance to those far more psephologically aware than you are.
You are simply a Corbyn troll who pretends to be a Labour sceptic - it fools no-one. Your awareness is filtered t.hrough rose-tinted glasses
We have been here before - and,of course, it is Yougov. The crossbreaks of other pollsters are nowhere near these figures.
To summarize all polling is declared good for Labour and bad for the Tories - whatever it says. There - saves you bothering to post any more garbage for a while.
Why not try checking the data for yourself? Maybe you are simply content to parade your ignorance to those far more psephologically aware than you are.
You are simply a Corbyn troll who pretends to be a Labour sceptic - it fools no-one. Your awareness is filtered t.hrough rose-tinted glasses
We have been here before - and,of course, it is Yougov. The crossbreaks of other pollsters are nowhere near these figures.
To summarize all polling is declared good for Labour and bad for the Tories - whatever it says. There - saves you bothering to post any more garbage for a while.
Why not try checking the data for yourself? Maybe you are simply content to parade your ignorance to those far more psephologically aware than you are.
You are simply a Corbyn troll who pretends to be a Labour sceptic - it fools no-one. Your awareness is filtered t.hrough rose-tinted glasses
And you are a profoundly ignorant plonker - totally incapable of generating any psephological analysis yourself.
Many of my remainer friends are now leavers. Remainers on this blog fail to understand the depth of frustration amongst the public that this is all still dragging on - they want it to be over. BoJo will be rewarded for bringing it to a conclusion.
Leaving with No Deal is not the end.
That's when the real fighting starts
No Deal isn't even close to accurate. In reality there will be dozens, maybe hundreds, of bilateral and multilateral deals merely to keep the wheels turning. Why "No Deal" is preferable to taking our time and getting a deal is completely beyond me.
Coming to it when you get done for fraud on your expenses and get voted back in, if it happens it says a lot about Wales and not in a good way. Any normal person would vote for anybody but the fraudster.
Yet the Scots keep voting in those SNP MPs......
Name any current SNP MP or MSP who has been done for fraud on expenses or anything else. Think you will find they have principles and any wrong doers are out immediately unlike the nasty party who would have few left if they got rid of their bad uns.
How far have we fallen that this man is the FS, FFS?
Is it really a surprise that the worst foreign secretary of modern times should appoint someone worse ?
The worst FS of modern times was George Brown. You have to be sober to do the job.
And in case you think i am partisan, the best was undoubtedly Ernest Bevin
Arguable - and Johnson does not have the excuse of alcoholism.
Still, Raab has every chance of settling the debate.
How is BoJo the "worst foreign secretary of modern times"? You may not like or approve of him but that's a different point.
Genuine question.
For sure he did nothing and in fact got a woman an added jail sentence. Hard to see how many could do worse
Annoyed a lot of his counterparts in countries with whom we will need a good relationship post-Brexit and many of those who worked for him.
It hardly screams diplomacy and leadership.
I seem to remember France and Germany being none too keen on Jack Straw either in 2003. When New Labour were trying to start yet another war. Given the results i would suggest thios outranks BoJo by quite amargin.
As for Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe...probably a mistake but he wouldnt be the first FS to fall foul of a capricious and savage dictatorship that is willing to use other countries citizens as hostages. Shouldnt most blame here attach to the Mullahs?
1. What the moonhoax is going on with those shadows (mug and icing sugar)? 2. Which is worse, deciding that this was the mug you wanted to pose with for posturing purposes, or having that mug in your kitchen and using it daily?
1. What the moonhoax is going on with those shadows (mug and icing sugar)? 2. Which is worse, deciding that this was the mug you wanted to pose with for posturing purposes, or having that mug in your kitchen and using it daily?
On 2, I fear my kitchen mugs would raise eyebrows on Through The Keyhole.
One thing we don't know if how people will respond if No Deal happens and the result is not immediate catastrophe, but rather a series of administrative hiccups and long-term effects which aren't immediately apparent. Does the Brexit Party collapse? Do the LibDems campaign to Rejoin, or will that look just tiresome? Do Remainers take revenge on the Tories at the next opportunity, or think "oh, that wasn't as bad as I thought"? I genuinely think we have little clue.
Good questions. A fair chance we'll have a cultural war to look forward to.
1. What the moonhoax is going on with those shadows (mug and icing sugar)? 2. Which is worse, deciding that this was the mug you wanted to pose with for posturing purposes, or having that mug in your kitchen and using it daily?
3. Does he run a hostel? What domestic kitchen has looked like that since the late 1950s? is the hashtag fourovens a sophisticated bilingual joke, and if not wtf is it about?
Comments
Here in Wales they have been in government too long, have a failing NHS and education system and are now led by a Corbyn acolyte who is utterly hopeless
Labour need to go into opposition in Wales for the sake of the country and a coalition of parties are likely to see that happen
The Tories won Vale of Clwyd and Gower because of the large UKIP vote in 2015.
If a GE were actually held right now in Wales, there would be modest gains for the Tories, and perhaps a gain each for the LDs and PC.
Assuming the poll is right, it is a pretty good one for the Tories.
He is a dreadful appointment
A flavour here - https://twitter.com/herdyshepherd1/status/1155739560871116800?s=19
https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/eoghan-harris-boris-johnson-has-called-leo-and-simons-backstop-bluff-38351866.html
I think Boris is a fool, yet it's a bit rich blaming him when the reason we're heading for no deal is that MPs repeatedly refused to back the deal (having endorsed leaving the EU).
Pro-EU MPs have cunningly led us to this point. The difference between them and the ERG is that the ERG is actually heading in the direction they want to.
Pro-EU MPs have managed to vote repeatedly against a deal. And are now upset we're leaving with no deal.
Boris also has the May characteristic of seeing a problem and thinking it can only be solved either by a) more money or b) more Government or c) both. Indeed, he is as much as interventionist in the Heseltine mode as she was.
Apart from his view on Brexit and a sense of humour, there's a lot of similarities between May and Johnson but the public persona is different enough to convince the politically unaware we've had another change of Government - our fifth in nine and a bit years (not quite Italy in the 70s and 80s to be fair).
To its credit the Welsh govt found the time to renationalise the train franchise
https://tfw.gov.wales/projects/wales-and-borders-rail-service.
I don't know how its overall punctuality record compares to Deutsche Bahn aka Arriva.
However, had May made more preparations for no deal, said propaganda etc would've helped her chances of getting her deal passed.
The ERG preferred to stay in, arguing about the backstop.
If this happens then in the short term it is no worse than Mays deal. It would also explain why leading Brexiteers, including Boris, have kept on making the mistake that you have a transition period without the WA. Again idiocy may be the answer.
I think the LDs will still take the seat, although the majority will be less than 1500, and perhaps much less.
I think the Tories will take it back in the GE that is coming.
LD 33.4
Con 28.6
BRP 19.8
Plaid 9.1
Lab 5.7
Green 1.7
If you assume all Plaid votes head Lib Dem and Green votes head Labour,
LD 43
Con 29
BRP 20
Lab 7
is yielded. I reckon that'll be reasonably close.
A good night for the Tories would be being further ahead of the Brexit party than the Lib Dems are ahead of them.
I think it is way too early to tell, and that No Brexit is still a very real possibility. As is a Bozo rehash of May's deal.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/07/29/national/south-korean-city-exchange-programs-flight-routes-japan-suspended-amid-tensions/
The worst FS of modern times was George Brown. You have to be sober to do the job.
And in case you think i am partisan, the best was undoubtedly Ernest Bevin
Mr. Rentool, I wonder about that. All three options are still on the table, but my thinking is coloured by my perspective on Boris, which is that he's a wretched egomaniacal incompetent.
That doesnt fit the world view of entitled, metropolitan remainers but it is a fact, as demonstrated by this poll.
That's when the real fighting starts
Still, Raab has every chance of settling the debate.
If the backstop becomes an indefinite transition then perhaps Boris can get away with arguing that the EU have conceded a transition without a "deal" and the EU can shake their heads in wonder at all the concessions they had to make to May that they've then regained from Boris.
However, I really doubt that the ERG would agree to an indefinite transition.
Dodds (a former charity worker from Richmond) is not a natural fit to the B&R constituency, and personalities matter in these Welsh seats.
I assume that even the Tories are not daft enough to run Davies in a GE.
So, the GE candidate will not have the millstone of a criminal conviction hanging round him.
When I get the household enquiry form normally nothing has changed and I go thru' the telephone option and do it in seconds. This time however I had a change (removing one of my children) so went online. The 3 security questions are pointless as they are all on the form and I could remove and add people willy nilly! There has to be something more than this? I assume there are spot checks? The interception of a few hundred forms (that nobody would miss) could be dramatic, although likely to be picked up on polling day, although if you focused on non voters from the marked register it could work.
What am I missing?
How is BoJo the "worst foreign secretary of modern times"? You may not like or approve of him but that's a different point.
Genuine question.
Since we're all into WW2 comparisons nowadays, as part of the government's oh-so-subtle efforts at brainwashing, no deal will end Brexit in the same way the fall of France ended the war in Europe. This is not even the end of the beginning.
Dreadful on NHS and education plus too long in government
The current prices seem no value at all.
On a trip into Powys last Wed, the L.Dem posters were abundant. I'd agree that there were half as many Tory posters - they don't put posters up as much as L.Dem voters - but they all seemed to be accounted for by two or three farmers.
25 posters don't signify 25 Tory votes, unless some of the sheep have acquired the franchise.
https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/sunday-express-voting-intention-poll/
Ditto Opinium
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/
The alternative is that security you introduce to make fraud theoretically more difficult also makes it practically more difficult to vote, and so then some people entitled to do so are not able to do so. And this doesn't have any practical benefit because it's hard to commit electoral fraud and for your opponent not to notice.
I was going to say that in WW2, at least the PM would attend his own daily Cobra meetings rather than a jolly in Scotland, but now I think of it, Churchill spent a considerable time abroad at various summits, leaving Attlee to run the show at home.
And in England the NHS is getting 20 billion from this government and Boris is promising a big upgrade in the pupil premium
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Christchurch_by-election
2% in Newbury the same year.
Norway minus the Fjords might have worked in July 2016 as a good compromise of the 48% and 52%. On the last three years' experience, I'd maintain that Brussels democracy with PR and checks and balances easily beats Whitehall farce. Probably so would the other 6M who signed the petition and most of them are probably outside the M25 so are neither entitled nor metropolitan.
I fear far more for the future if the result is denied by a minority refusing to accept it. Perhaps you people think another vote and a result to remain just takes us back to "ex ante" with nothing changing. If so, you are badly deluded.
Can we get enough food and medicine?
Ummm
This.
My weekend canvassing in B&R went strongly LD, but that's just one canvasser. The truth is: LibDems campaign in greater numbers, and with more enthusiasm, than their opposition.
On this occasion, my suspicion is that the LibDems will win. But posters in the windows and activists on the streets are a weapon, not a result.
It hardly screams diplomacy and leadership.
I seem to remember France and Germany being none too keen on Jack Straw either in 2003. When New Labour were trying to start yet another war. Given the results i would suggest thios outranks BoJo by quite amargin.
As for Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe...probably a mistake but he wouldnt be the first FS to fall foul of a capricious and savage dictatorship that is willing to use other countries citizens as hostages. Shouldnt most blame here attach to the Mullahs?
1. What the moonhoax is going on with those shadows (mug and icing sugar)?
2. Which is worse, deciding that this was the mug you wanted to pose with for posturing purposes, or having that mug in your kitchen and using it daily?
And to my SNP friends I come from the 'Ruthie' side on this
[Opens page].
Everybody is bitching about James Brokenshire's kitchen. Oh.
[Closes page quietly. Tiptoes away]