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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could Welsh Labour be about to experience a near wipe-out similar to that which Scottish Labour saw at GE2015?
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This is the most centrist Dem thing ever.
Perhaps the answer is all of the above with Conservatives, LibDems and Plaid Cymru taking seats in different parts of Wales.
https://perchance.org/pgk4gv0c6p
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/priti-patel-home-secretary-was-guest-of-bin-laden-go-between-p673fhzzr
Chinese population peak could happen within 3 and a half years according to the latest estimates.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/03/chinas-population-could-peak-in-2023-heres-why-that-matters.html
The challenge for PC is to get past the language issue. Some of their results, in for example Rhondda, suggests it could be possible.
So well done, prime minister, for accepting the need for politics to help the people it forgot. But remember, the only way to win a culture war is not to fight one.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/boris-johnson-has-learnt-the-lessons-of-brexit-vote-g6l2kfqrb
And - scratch the surface - it turns out she is concerned about "Black" entrepreneurs, however that is defined this morning.
Wonder if Rachel Dolezal qualifies.
It appears to be us...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/28/corbyn-must-choose-lead-alliance-against-brexit-right-or-step-aside
My own view is that both of these paths will prove too traumatic for Labour, whose cumbersome internal processes simply won’t be able to act quickly enough to respond to the looming threat from Bozo’s extremism. The better course is for the more sensible politicians to up sticks and join the LibDem/Green alliance.
I thought it was based on Wales having approx 20% too many MPs for the number of people.
Yep - Cameron was cynical - but the reduction was a correct proposal.
As usual, always be careful interpreting this model, not least because BP doesn't have the campaigning infrastructure to win all the seats its poll numbers might suggest, but it would suggest Labour in Wales might actually benefit from the Tories recovering some of their missing votes from the Brexit Party.
The point today is the Conservatives have recognised that if they campaign properly, they can be effective in Wales, and this much-hyped poll might strengthen that further.
‘The Progressives’: Could Boris and Brexit prompt a new Scottish party?
Senior Scottish Tories believe Johnson will prove so toxic to voters north of the Border — and therefore so injurious to the Union — that it would be best all-round if they broke away and formed a separate party in Scotland. In doing so, they contend, Davidson would be well-placed to defend the Union and appeal to Tory-averse voters while swiftly shoving Johnson out of the picture. Operation Arse has been replaced by Operation Elbow.
Opposition to a split among the MP group is not seen as too much of an impediment among proponents. ‘If the blockage to this idea is the opposition of MPs, Boris calling an early election might remove that issue,’ my senior MSP says, waspishly.
https://stephendaisley.com/2019/07/27/the-progressives-could-boris-and-brexit-prompt-a-new-scottish-party/
Do they still ban balloons in there?
Lab 35, Con 41, UKIP 4, PC 11, LD 7, Green 1.
Whatever happened exactly a month later ? I have seen this before.
I can understand why Unionists are bigging up the Westminster bit.
Unusually, the 2017 GE was called during May’s first year honeymoon - and I do wonder whether the bigger story of that election is not so much that Corbyn suddenly found his mojo but that the forced electoral choice burst the honeymoon balloon and when voters’ critical eyes were turned on May for the first time, they didn’t like what they saw.
A thought for Bozo if indeed he is considering a honeymoon election bid?
I would also caution against taking these too seriously. We had polls like this is in the lead up to 2010 and 2011 and the expected changes didn't really materialise.
In fact, with this one, the Tory lead was 10%.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wuxi3zs1qh/WelshBarometerResults_April17_WestminsterVI_W.pdf
It's one reason why I'm a bit sceptical of it.
Pick and choose HY. Pick and choose.
However, the poll may not be that wrong at the present time.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - Scottish independence, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.
Another race this coming weekend. Rain or hot weather could make things turbulent. Not checked the forecast yet.
I wonder what will happen if we have another election and Labour go backwards.
There are a number of articles across the press today noting that Cummings and BoZo are fully engaged in fighting the Brexit culture war.
It's not right v left, it's us v them. Total war, only won winner, no prisoners.
While it may be true that crashing out is an economic catastrophe, that in turn may be the only way to defeat the Spartans.
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
Yes. They have bird-brains.
Whilst there might be some truth in that references to Hitler and Nazis aren’t exactly ‘light-touch’ on the other side either.
She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - the UK, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.
Yep, that works...
He should have gone to Govan. Persuaded her to visit the constituency, for a change.
But it’s the voters who will have the final say. Thank goodness.
Also, they're led by a dithering imbecile who can't make up what passes for his mind.
If you want Remain, you shouldn't be voting Labour and most people aren't.
The truth is the SNP have always got into tangles over detailed policy. Currency unions, spying on children, child benefit, tax powers, Police Scotland, the reasons for remaining in the EU all spring to mind.
But that doesn't matter overmuch because the alternatives have exactly the same problem.
How far have we fallen that this man is the FS, FFS?
And on the current polling the SNP would expect to pick up 6 or 7 of the Labour seats in Scotland. Probably some of the Tory seats too. They are going to be a lot more behind a VoNC than Labour. The Lib Dems will also expect a significant increase in numbers but their leader should be careful about what she wishes for.
Hence my comments about Labour's obvious weakness playing into the politics.
Does anyone read this sort of junkmail?
You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales
However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA
As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
Despite some disgraceful slips into the abyss - attacks on judiciary and civil service, talk of suspending parliament etc - the UK is still, just about, a democracy.
We are still in the deal - no deal - remain arena but remain can only happen after a second referendum.
Anything else would be unacceptable
Yes EVS
No EVS
https://youtu.be/gcXM6tfe9YM