Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
But you say that about the SNP and Scotland too; plus ça change.
Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?
He's not lost all of them yet. Scotland, sure. But labour backers in the others would risk a tory government? I don't but it will be as bad as it looks.
Why? My enemy's enemy is my friend? As Alex Salmond noted years ago, Welsh and Scottish nationalism are quite different.
Plaid is our sister party. They speak at our conference and vice versa. We share whip and resources at Westminster and European Parliament. Our activists help each other. Indeed I think our membership even entitles is to attend branch meetings and vote if we live in the other country. We certainly had a PC student activist fully involved in our branch for a while.
Everyone on here keeps telling us that the Conservatives are an English nationalist party - perhaps you should partner up with them too ?
Although this Welsh poll doesn’t support that argument much..
Nope. You’ve lost me. I’ve read what you’ve written five times now and can’t make head nor tail of it. Could you please write in clear and concise English so that we have a glimmer of hope of understanding what point you are trying to make.
SNP partnering up with Nationalist parties like PC, Shinners and the Catalan mob.
If it’s nationalist mates you want why not the Cons or Kippers ?
Or is everything English toxic ?
At least you admit the Cons ( well named ) and kippers are English parties Harry. I think he wants a Scottish party , living in Scotland does that for a lot of people.
One final thought. PM Johnson is talking about renewing the ties that bind the Union. I'm not seeing any mention of the word Britain. Is that to appeal to the non-British in NI who don't want Irish unification?
I do not believe Scottish nationalism can be defeated without making the case for Britain.
Alister Jack said he would fund breakaway Scottish Conservative Party
The new Scottish Secretary offered to fund a breakaway Scottish Conservative Party, it has emerged.
Alister Jack, who built up his multi-million-pound wealth through his tent-hire and self-storage businesses, said he would put forward “significant sums of money” to back 2011 Scottish Tory leadership contender Murdo Fraser’s plan to split from the UK Conservatives in order to “detoxify” the party’s brand in Scotland.
Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
But you say that about the SNP and Scotland too; plus ça change.
The SNP have not succeeded in Scotland either, even after getting a majority in 2011 at Holyrood Scots voted decisively against independence in 2014.
On today's Welsh Assembly poll Plaid are miles from a majority and would need Tory and LD support to make Adam Price First Minister over the hapless Labour incumbent Mark Drakeford
Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?
It is a truely depressing thought for labour that Corbyn has lost Scotland, Wales and possibly London and more than that, has enabled the likelyhood of a no deal Brexit by not being an unequivocal remain backing leader of the opposition.
He is a disaster for labour and the country at large as he could have made the difference over a second referendum.
Not only is he responsible for 'Boris' but he has taken his party to a point that many of his mps must be terrified of a vonc as so many of their seats would be under attack from Boris on one side and the Lib Dems and SNP on the other
G, he has been aided and abetted by the cowardly sheep like Labour MPs. They elected to stick their noses in the trough rather than have any principles.
We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
You are the
Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.
I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree
In what way?
He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA
Jue.
Trueto the same conclusion.
It’s a procout and vote tactically for the Tories? There must be something stopping them making that final leap.
If you are switching because of positive support for a principal policy, that’s not really tactical voting. Strictly, tactical voting is the choice of lesser evils.
Say you are Leave supporter in Sunderland. You are unlikely to identify with Johnson. You might with the BP or Labour on anything apart from Brexit. If that person votes Conservative, it will be for tactical reasons.
For sure, if ut then again they might not.
Labour still wants to see a bloc of working class voters as its own “possession”, when the world is moving on, and class politics is becoming history.
No, that’s not what I was doing at all. What I was saying is that in terms of policy there is no difference between BXP and the Tories now. If, despite this, people still identify as BXP and not Tory can we assume they will vote tactically for the Tories when a GE comes? On the other side of the equation, it is clear there are substantial policy differences between the anti-No Deal parties, but it seems to me there is more likelihood of tactical voting among their supporters because preventing No Deal will be seen as a priority. In Warwick & Leamington, for example, I imagine a lot of otherwise natural LDs will hold their noses to vote Labour to keep the Tory out; while in, say, many SW seats a lot of even Corbyn-inclined voters will go LD to stop the Tory.
Applying UNS to Electoral calculus implied Wales result yields
Labour 18 seats Tories 16 seats Brexit party 0 Lib Dems 2 Plaid 4
So labour lose 10, Conservatives gain 8, Lib Dems gain 2, and Plaid stay at 4
With Scotland, Wales and possibly London being so negative for labour there must be virtually no chance of them being in government post a GE, so no chance of a vonc anytime soon by them
Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?
Miliband lost Scotland.
Corbyn will not lose either London or Wales at the next GE either.
When is Gardenwalker going to stop underestimating Corbyn?
The LDs beat Labour in London in the European Parliament elections
Everybody beat the Tories in the European elections.
Relevance for next GE nil
Yes and no. UKIP topped the poll in the 2014 Euro elections. Did UKIP go on to sweep the board in the 2015 GE? No.
But did voters’ willingness to flirt with UKIP back then:
- influence how the other parties responded? - begin to weaken the loyalty of the Conservative base? - make it much easier for Tory leavers subsequently to contemplate voting for (or signing up to) an alternative party?
Yesterday I met a Brecon voter who must have been well into his 80s who told me that when he was a young man a bitter argument between Tory and Labour within his family led him to vote Liberal, and he said that he’d voted Liberal every time since. Relevance of story: very little, except that what starts as an exception can become a habit. Or at least break a previous habit.
Is the potential collapse of Labour in Wales and Scotland an indictment of Labour specifically, or the union in general? I get the feeling that it isn't just Labour is doing badly, but the structure of the union is fraying in such a way that more negatively impacts Labour.
In Scotland their death knell was supporting the Tories in Better Together, the idiots chose to lead it for the Tories. They have reaped the rewards.
Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
But you say that about the SNP and Scotland too; plus ça change.
The SNP have not succeeded in Scotland either, even after getting a majority in 2011 at Holyrood Scots voted decisively against independence in 2014.
On today's Welsh Assembly poll Plaid are miles from a majority and would need Tory and LD support to make Adam Price First Minister over the hapless Labour incumbent Mark Drakeford
Are you willing to offer better than evens for Yes winning Indy ref II, or are you going to cling on to Rajoy Boris blocking a referendum indefinitely?
Genuinely interesting. Ruth Davidson doesn't bother to hide that she thinks Johnson a turd. Her argument: never mind that, I get to decide what happens in the Scottish Conservatives, I don't sign up to the No Deal pledge, and in any case the Union is the key thing.
Not wholly convincing, but interesting nevertheless. We also learn that she has no plans to quit and she won't instigate a Scottish Conservative party that is independent of the English party (Although she does allow for the Scottish membership to overrule her on the last point).
So what actually is her strategy, just quietly tutting and shaking her head in a corner?
I would say Davidson's strategy, which is to pitch the Conservatives as the natural inclusive party of the Union, has been utterly undermined by her English colleagues.
She is reduced to arguing that the Good need not be the enemy of the Utterly Crap, if the alternative is Unnecessary Catastrophe.
Not a particularly compelling argument IMO
Ruth has never had any compelling arguments.
She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - Scottish independence, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.
But Brexit itself is almost entirely being opposed to stuff...
For Ruth it is a matter of priority: the Union trumps Brexit.
It is her only policy, once she cedes that they are really finished
Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
But you say that about the SNP and Scotland too; plus ça change.
The SNP have not succeeded in Scotland either, even after getting a majority in 2011 at Holyrood Scots voted decisively against independence in 2014.
On today's Welsh Assembly poll Plaid are miles from a majority and would need Tory and LD support to make Adam Price First Minister over the hapless Labour incumbent Mark Drakeford
Are you willing to offer better than evens for Yes winning Indy ref II, or are you going to cling on to Rajoy Boris blocking a referendum indefinitely?
I think any indyref2 would be about 52% No 48% Yes even if hard Brexit, a few Remainers who voted No in 2014 will switch to Yes but the pensioner vote would still turn out in force for No to enable it to scrape home.
Indeed only 39% of Scots want to stop Brexit altogether with Opinium yesterday and 35% of Scots back No Deal anyway
Is the potential collapse of Labour in Wales and Scotland an indictment of Labour specifically, or the union in general? I get the feeling that it isn't just Labour is doing badly, but the structure of the union is fraying in such a way that more negatively impacts Labour.
Nothing to do with the Union here in Wales.
Labour have been in government far too long as the NHS and education in Wales fail.
And I have personal experience of the Wales NHS failure and I see it in the local schools attended by my grandchildren
Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?
Miliband lost Scotland.
Corbyn will not lose either London or Wales at the next GE either.
When is Gardenwalker going to stop underestimating Corbyn?
I suspect that is right. This poll is not good for Labour, but in practice they won't lose (m)any seats in a GE.
Gardenwalker has never even visited Wales. His world is bounded by the M25.
Unnecessarily offensive? Check. Factually incorrect? Check. Fuelled by an obsessive jealousy of anyone who doesn’t live in a mud hut outside Lampeter? Check.
Applying UNS to Electoral calculus implied Wales result yields
Labour 18 seats Tories 16 seats Brexit party 0 Lib Dems 2 Plaid 4
So labour lose 10, Conservatives gain 8, Lib Dems gain 2, and Plaid stay at 4
With Scotland, Wales and possibly London being so negative for labour there must be virtually no chance of them being in government post a GE, so no chance of a vonc anytime soon by them
And the only virtue of UNS that remains is that it is easy. Or lazy. Not accurate.
Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
I think not too, aren't about 25% of Welsh voters from outside Wales? Nonetheless PC control of the Assembly may well put substantial further strain on the Union.
PC would be unlikely to gain a majority in the assembly
They used to say that about the SNP in Scotland. Things change.
There is absolutely no comparision between the SNP and Plaid
It's like comparing Manchester City with Macclesfield Town
Again, they used to laugh at the SNP. The political map of Britain is changing. I would not be confident of anything right now. What happens if the LD/PC/Green Brecon alliance is replicated for a GE? The LDs and Greens are very big on devolution, aren’t they? More of that is the next step for Wales.
I have no problem with devolution as long as labour are not involved
Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?
Miliband lost Scotland.
Corbyn will not lose either London or Wales at the next GE either.
When is Gardenwalker going to stop underestimating Corbyn?
BJ , I admire your loyalty but I am afraid it is very obvious Corbyn is a loser and will never take Labour anywhere but down the drain. OK as a backbench MP but promoted well above his competence level.
Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?
Miliband lost Scotland.
Corbyn will not lose either London or Wales at the next GE either.
When is Gardenwalker going to stop underestimating Corbyn?
I suspect that is right. This poll is not good for Labour, but in practice they won't lose (m)any seats in a GE.
Gardenwalker has never even visited Wales. His world is bounded by the M25.
Unnecessarily offensive? Check. Factually incorrect? Check. Fuelled by an obsessive jealousy of anyone who doesn’t live in a mud hut outside Lampeter? Check.
Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?
Miliband lost Scotland.
Corbyn will not lose either London or Wales at the next GE either.
When is Gardenwalker going to stop underestimating Corbyn?
I suspect that is right. This poll is not good for Labour, but in practice they won't lose (m)any seats in a GE.
Gardenwalker has never even visited Wales. His world is bounded by the M25.
Unnecessarily offensive? Check. Factually incorrect? Check. Fuelled by an obsessive jealousy of anyone who doesn’t live in a mud hut outside Lampeter? Check.
Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?
Miliband lost Scotland.
Corbyn will not lose either London or Wales at the next GE either.
When is Gardenwalker going to stop underestimating Corbyn?
I suspect that is right. This poll is not good for Labour, but in practice they won't lose (m)any seats in a GE.
Gardenwalker has never even visited Wales. His world is bounded by the M25.
Unnecessarily offensive? Check. Factually incorrect? Check. Fuelled by an obsessive jealousy of anyone who doesn’t live in a mud hut outside Lampeter? Check.
Genuinely interesting. Ruth Davidson doesn't bother to hide that she thinks Johnson a turd. Her argument: never mind that, I get to decide what happens in the Scottish Conservatives, I don't sign up to the No Deal pledge, and in any case the Union is the key thing.
Not wholly convincing, but interesting nevertheless. We also learn that she has no plans to quit and she won't instigate a Scottish Conservative party that is independent of the English party (Although she does allow for the Scottish membership to overrule her on the last point).
So what actually is her strategy, just quietly tutting and shaking her head in a corner?
I would say Davidson's strategy, which is to pitch the Conservatives as the natural inclusive party of the Union, has been utterly undermined by her English colleagues.
She is reduced to arguing that the Good need not be the enemy of the Utterly Crap, if the alternative is Unnecessary Catastrophe.
Not a particularly compelling argument IMO
Ruth has never had any compelling arguments.
She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - Scottish independence, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.
I think that unfair. Davidson is for a liberal Union of values. Her problem is that her English colleagues have completely trashed those values.
However she has no principles, if it goes wrong she just uses another one of her faces, she has more than the town clock. Spineless and just a sockpuppet for London , Scotland's interests are way down the pecking order of her priorities.
Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
I think not too, aren't about 25% of Welsh voters from outside Wales? Nonetheless PC control of the Assembly may well put substantial further strain on the Union.
PC would be unlikely to gain a majority in the assembly
They used to say that about the SNP in Scotland. Things change.
There is absolutely no comparision between the SNP and Plaid
It's like comparing Manchester City with Macclesfield Town
Again, they used to laugh at the SNP. The political map of Britain is changing. I would not be confident of anything right now. What happens if the LD/PC/Green Brecon alliance is replicated for a GE? The LDs and Greens are very big on devolution, aren’t they? More of that is the next step for Wales.
.
The Green party in EnglandandWales is not pro-Devolution and explicitly voted against forming a separate Welsh Green party.
There will be no long-term LD/Green/PC alliance.
The Green Party is in favour of self determination. The Welsh members voted against having a separate party, so they didn't split.
Correct. So, they are hardly likely to be long-term partners of Plaid Cymru, right?
The "Welsh" Green party is a mythical party. It doesn't exist, but it has a leader.
It is a regional branch of the Green Party of EnglandandWales. It contains Jew-haters (Bartolotti with her 'final solution') and Welsh language haters.
It is by some way the most ugly party in Wales. Or it would be if it actually existed.
British farmers and manufacturers are at risk of being left defenceless against a flood of cheap imports in the event of a no-deal Brexit, The Daily Telegraph can reveal, amid growing concerns that the Government may struggle to pass legislation to cushion a hard exit from the EU.
Is the potential collapse of Labour in Wales and Scotland an indictment of Labour specifically, or the union in general? I get the feeling that it isn't just Labour is doing badly, but the structure of the union is fraying in such a way that more negatively impacts Labour.
Nothing to do with the Union here in Wales.
Labour have been in government far too long as the NHS and education in Wales fail.
And I have personal experience of the Wales NHS failure and I see it in the local schools attended by my grandchildren
The Labour vote began to collapse in Wales when Carwyn Jones stood down and was replaced by a Corbynista automaton.
British farmers and manufacturers are at risk of being left defenceless against a flood of cheap imports in the event of a no-deal Brexit, The Daily Telegraph can reveal, amid growing concerns that the Government may struggle to pass legislation to cushion a hard exit from the EU.
No, that’s not what I was doing at all. What I was saying is that in terms of policy there is no difference between BXP and the Tories now. If, despite this, people still identify as BXP and not Tory can we assume they will vote tactically for the Tories when a GE comes? On the other side of the equation, it is clear there are substantial policy differences between the anti-No Deal parties, but it seems to me there is more likelihood of tactical voting among their supporters because preventing No Deal will be seen as a priority. In Warwick & Leamington, for example, I imagine a lot of otherwise natural LDs will hold their noses to vote Labour to keep the Tory out; while in, say, many SW seats a lot of even Corbyn-inclined voters will go LD to stop the Tory.
That's what I think too, though it's hard to be sure of anything at the moment. Boris is assisting tactical voting by being so militant on No Deal.
One thing we don't know if how people will respond if No Deal happens and the result is not immediate catastrophe, but rather a series of administrative hiccups and long-term effects which aren't immediately apparent. Does the Brexit Party collapse? Do the LibDems campaign to Rejoin, or will that look just tiresome? Do Remainers take revenge on the Tories at the next opportunity, or think "oh, that wasn't as bad as I thought"? I genuinely think we have little clue.
Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
But you say that about the SNP and Scotland too; plus ça change.
The SNP have not succeeded in Scotland either, even after getting a majority in 2011 at Holyrood Scots voted decisively against independence in 2014.
On today's Welsh Assembly poll Plaid are miles from a majority and would need Tory and LD support to make Adam Price First Minister over the hapless Labour incumbent Mark Drakeford
Are you willing to offer better than evens for Yes winning Indy ref II, or are you going to cling on to Rajoy Boris blocking a referendum indefinitely?
No chance you will get better than evens TUD. It will be big odds on next time and Hyfud will choke.
No, that’s not what I was doing at all. What I was saying is that in terms of policy there is no difference between BXP and the Tories now. If, despite this, people still identify as BXP and not Tory can we assume they will vote tactically for the Tories when a GE comes? On the other side of the equation, it is clear there are substantial policy differences between the anti-No Deal parties, but it seems to me there is more likelihood of tactical voting among their supporters because preventing No Deal will be seen as a priority. In Warwick & Leamington, for example, I imagine a lot of otherwise natural LDs will hold their noses to vote Labour to keep the Tory out; while in, say, many SW seats a lot of even Corbyn-inclined voters will go LD to stop the Tory.
That's what I think too, though it's hard to be sure of anything at the moment. Boris is assisting tactical voting by being so militant on No Deal.
One thing we don't know if how people will respond if No Deal happens and the result is not immediate catastrophe, but rather a series of administrative hiccups and long-term effects which aren't immediately apparent. Does the Brexit Party collapse? Do the LibDems campaign to Rejoin, or will that look just tiresome? Do Remainers take revenge on the Tories at the next opportunity, or think "oh, that wasn't as bad as I thought"? I genuinely think we have little clue.
And that’s what Boris is hoping for we have left and nothing big and obvious goes wrong.
Ok a few people like me won’t be able to fly around Europe for work but we don’t count in the scheme of things
Plaid lead Labour on the Yougov Welsh Assembly poll but are still well short of a majority and Adam Price would need both Tory and LD support to replace the hapless Labour incumbent Mark Drakeford as First Minister
British farmers and manufacturers are at risk of being left defenceless against a flood of cheap imports in the event of a no-deal Brexit, The Daily Telegraph can reveal, amid growing concerns that the Government may struggle to pass legislation to cushion a hard exit from the EU.
Shows the arrogance of these thick twunts, just assume the public are pig thick , set out a few items and imagine they will never notice it is all props.
Applying UNS to Electoral calculus implied Wales result yields
Labour 18 seats Tories 16 seats Brexit party 0 Lib Dems 2 Plaid 4
I dont follow welsh politics but on the basis of those and recent polls with a near 5 way tie, I would suspect who you are most against will be just as important as who you are for, perhaps pollsters can start adding that so we can get a picture of likely tactical voting.
Being on 23% with 60% disliking for example may be worse than being on 19% with 40% disliking.
Plaid lead Labour on the Yougov Welsh Assembly poll but are still well short of a majority and Adam Price would need both Tory and LD support to replace the hapless Labour incumbent Mark Drakeford as First Minister
That nearly happened in 2007. The Liberal Democrats declined a coalition by a casting vote. As a result, Plaid joined Labour - a move that was disastrous for everybody, but which they had little choice about.
Whether Adam Price would be as open to a rainbow coalition as Ieuan Wyn Jones was is a very different question. My instinctive answer is personnel changes have made it far more difficult.
That might have been the case were the candidate not a convicted criminal with a fraud conviction. Mind you he does fit in with the other MPs in that party who have been sacked for lying
No, that’s not what I was doing at all. What I was saying is that in terms of policy there is no difference between BXP and the Tories now. If, despite this, people still identify as BXP and not Tory can we assume they will vote tactically for the Tories when a GE comes? On the other side of the equation, it is clear there are substantial policy differences between the anti-No Deal parties, but it seems to me there is more likelihood of tactical voting among their supporters because preventing No Deal will be seen as a priority. In Warwick & Leamington, for example, I imagine a lot of otherwise natural LDs will hold their noses to vote Labour to keep the Tory out; while in, say, many SW seats a lot of even Corbyn-inclined voters will go LD to stop the Tory.
That's what I think too, though it's hard to be sure of anything at the moment. Boris is assisting tactical voting by being so militant on No Deal.
One thing we don't know if how people will respond if No Deal happens and the result is not immediate catastrophe, but rather a series of administrative hiccups and long-term effects which aren't immediately apparent. Does the Brexit Party collapse? Do the LibDems campaign to Rejoin, or will that look just tiresome? Do Remainers take revenge on the Tories at the next opportunity, or think "oh, that wasn't as bad as I thought"? I genuinely think we have little clue.
And that’s what Boris is hoping for we have left and nothing big and obvious goes wrong.
Ok a few people like me won’t be able to fly around Europe for work but we don’t count in the scheme of things
Give you more time for your family eek so not bad. I have to say far too many people flying about unnecessarily nowadays when most can be done remotely. I just don't do it nowadays.
No, that’s not what I was doing at all. What I was saying is that in terms of policy there is no difference between BXP and the Tories now. If, despite this, people still identify as BXP and not Tory can we assume they will vote tactically for the Tories when a GE comes? On the other side of the equation, it is clear there are substantial policy differences between the anti-No Deal parties, but it seems to me there is more likelihood of tactical voting among their supporters because preventing No Deal will be seen as a priority. In Warwick & Leamington, for example, I imagine a lot of otherwise natural LDs will hold their noses to vote Labour to keep the Tory out; while in, say, many SW seats a lot of even Corbyn-inclined voters will go LD to stop the Tory.
That's what I think too, though it's hard to be sure of anything at the moment. Boris is assisting tactical voting by being so militant on No Deal.
One thing we don't know if how people will respond if No Deal happens and the result is not immediate catastrophe, but rather a series of administrative hiccups and long-term effects which aren't immediately apparent. Does the Brexit Party collapse? Do the LibDems campaign to Rejoin, or will that look just tiresome? Do Remainers take revenge on the Tories at the next opportunity, or think "oh, that wasn't as bad as I thought"? I genuinely think we have little clue.
And that’s what Boris is hoping for we have left and nothing big and obvious goes wrong.
Ok a few people like me won’t be able to fly around Europe for work but we don’t count in the scheme of things
My guess is that the very divisive and confrontational approach Johnson is taking is unlikely to see things calming down whatever the No Deal outcome is. He is focused solely on harvesting BXP votes. That will have long-term consequences. I am increasingly confident he will be the last Tory to win an election for a very long time.
That might have been the case were the candidate not a convicted criminal with a fraud conviction. Mind you he does fit in with the other MPs in that party who have been sacked for lying
The Tories would almost certainly hold this with another candidate.
But I'm far from certain the Liberal Democrats can beat them with their candidate.
British farmers and manufacturers are at risk of being left defenceless against a flood of cheap imports in the event of a no-deal Brexit, The Daily Telegraph can reveal, amid growing concerns that the Government may struggle to pass legislation to cushion a hard exit from the EU.
Sadly no deal legislation preparation has been declared unnecessary by Boris in committing to 31 October do or die.
British leave voting farmers not getting their super sized benefit handouts would at least be one good point of the govt strategy, but in reality all that means is the taxpayer (working people under threat of losing their jobs for something they voted against), will have to give them their super sized benefit handouts plus additional hardship bungs a couple of months later.
Coming to it when you get done for fraud on your expenses and get voted back in, if it happens it says a lot about Wales and not in a good way. Any normal person would vote for anybody but the fraudster.
I suspect that the debate this week will shake out some more of the fringe candidates on 1-2% - if they don't really grip the audience this time, it's hard to see them doing it later.
No, that’s not what I was doing at all. What I was saying is that in terms of policy there is no difference between BXP and the Tories now. If, despite this, people still identify as BXP and not Tory can we assume they will vote tactically for the Tories when a GE comes? On the other side of the equation, it is clear there are substantial policy differences between the anti-No Deal parties, but it seems to me there is more likelihood of tactical voting among their supporters because preventing No Deal will be seen as a priority. In Warwick & Leamington, for example, I imagine a lot of otherwise natural LDs will hold their noses to vote Labour to keep the Tory out; while in, say, many SW seats a lot of even Corbyn-inclined voters will go LD to stop the Tory.
That's what I think too, though it's hard to be sure of anything at the moment. Boris is assisting tactical voting by being so militant on No Deal.
One thing we don't know if how people will respond if No Deal happens and the result is not immediate catastrophe, but rather a series of administrative hiccups and long-term effects which aren't immediately apparent. Does the Brexit Party collapse? Do the LibDems campaign to Rejoin, or will that look just tiresome? Do Remainers take revenge on the Tories at the next opportunity, or think "oh, that wasn't as bad as I thought"? I genuinely think we have little clue.
And that’s what Boris is hoping for we have left and nothing big and obvious goes wrong.
Ok a few people like me won’t be able to fly around Europe for work but we don’t count in the scheme of things
Give you more time for your family eek so not bad. I have to say far too many people flying about unnecessarily nowadays when most can be done remotely. I just don't do it nowadays.
I do minimize flights but there are times when you do need to be face to face actually see people’s reactions. Conference calls just don’t reveal as much and result in bigger problems later (and in the scheme of things my travel is less than 10% of the cost of having me on the project anyway).
Oh and I’m fully prepared for a No Deal exit - this current project is a favour from the large corporate due to them delaying something else for a few months
Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?
Miliband lost Scotland.
Corbyn will not lose either London or Wales at the next GE either.
When is Gardenwalker going to stop underestimating Corbyn?
I suspect that is right. This poll is not good for Labour, but in practice they won't lose (m)any seats in a GE.
Gardenwalker has never even visited Wales. His world is bounded by the M25.
Unnecessarily offensive? Check. Factually incorrect? Check. Fuelled by an obsessive jealousy of anyone who doesn’t live in a mud hut outside Lampeter? Check.
We have gone up in the world. Last time, you had the Welsh living in dunghills in the Valleys.
My point was that your original claim was demonstrably incorrect about Scotland, and not to be trusted for Wales -- a country with which you have barely no acquaintanceship, as you believe we all live in dunghills and mud huts.
I do sometimes wonder whether why there is so much casual racism against the Welsh and Scots on this blog.
Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
But you say that about the SNP and Scotland too; plus ça change.
Scotland is very different as is the SNP and Plaid
I maintain that in the end the Scots will vote to remain in the Union for many reasons not least to prevent a border from Carlisle to Berwick impeding the 60% of exports to England and for many other technical and logistic reasons
Furthermore, in view of the agonies over the EU referendum do the Scots wish to put themselves through that process until the dust has settled
Finally there is a great amount of affection for the Union by many Scots and I personally know SNP members who support the Union and not Independence
No, that’s not what I was doing at all. What I was saying is that in terms of policy there is no difference between BXP and the Tories now. If, despite this, people still identify as BXP and not Tory can we assume they will vote tactically for the Tories when a GE comes? On the other side of the equation, it is clear there are substantial policy differences between the anti-No Deal parties, but it seems to me there is more likelihood of tactical voting among their supporters because preventing No Deal will be seen as a priority. In Warwick & Leamington, for example, I imagine a lot of otherwise natural LDs will hold their noses to vote Labour to keep the Tory out; while in, say, many SW seats a lot of even Corbyn-inclined voters will go LD to stop the Tory.
That's what I think too, though it's hard to be sure of anything at the moment. Boris is assisting tactical voting by being so militant on No Deal.
One thing we don't know if how people will respond if No Deal happens and the result is not immediate catastrophe, but rather a series of administrative hiccups and long-term effects which aren't immediately apparent. Does the Brexit Party collapse? Do the LibDems campaign to Rejoin, or will that look just tiresome? Do Remainers take revenge on the Tories at the next opportunity, or think "oh, that wasn't as bad as I thought"? I genuinely think we have little clue.
And that’s what Boris is hoping for we have left and nothing big and obvious goes wrong.
Ok a few people like me won’t be able to fly around Europe for work but we don’t count in the scheme of things
My guess is that the very divisive and confrontational approach Johnson is taking is unlikely to see things calming down whatever the No Deal outcome is. He is focused solely on harvesting BXP votes. That will have long-term consequences. I am increasingly confident he will be the last Tory to win an election for a very long time.
No Deal will lead to a collapse of his Government followed by an election by February 2021 with an administration committed to taking us back into the EU ASAP, at any price.
It will lead to us rejoining before 2025 and committed, this time, to the Euro, Schengen, common tax, asylum and defence, and any future federalisation on top.
There’s a small chance (20%?) that it proves decisive in changing public opinion, and goes ok, leading to the UK permanently charting its own course. But that’s very optimistic.
Otherwise a vote for No Deal is a vote for a Federal Europe and not something sensible eurosceptics should be tempted by.
Plaid lead Labour on the Yougov Welsh Assembly poll but are still well short of a majority and Adam Price would need both Tory and LD support to replace the hapless Labour incumbent Mark Drakeford as First Minister
Hi HYUFD, Boris has really impressed me on getting elected and deserves the bounce in the polls he has got. I thought if Hunt got elected he would be continuity May and Boris would shake it up more, but I am surprised by what he has done (actually don't know what I was expecting, but I'm still surprised).
But here is a question: If Corbyn has announced all this spending, Conservatives would be down on him like a ton of bricks. Peter the Punter commented on an earlier post by me that everyone thought Corbyn could turn us into Venezuela, but it looks like it could be Boris.
As a Conservative how can you support this? Isn't this 100% opposite to being a Conservative?
Coming to it when you get done for fraud on your expenses and get voted back in, if it happens it says a lot about Wales and not in a good way. Any normal person would vote for anybody but the fraudster.
British farmers and manufacturers are at risk of being left defenceless against a flood of cheap imports in the event of a no-deal Brexit, The Daily Telegraph can reveal, amid growing concerns that the Government may struggle to pass legislation to cushion a hard exit from the EU.
The No Deal scenario has only been described so far in the media in general terms. When details begin to emerge, particularly, WTO tariff rates, the proverbial will hit the fan. Remember, the Hard Brexiters about 6 months ago were talking about zero tariffs [ partly also to prove their free market credentials ]. Gove realized the consequences and came up with agricultural tariffs roughly halfway between current [EU] ones and proposed one. But even the proposed tariffs will hurt British agriculture badly. To protect the Tory vote, huge subsidies will be needed. Ironically, we are supposed to save 10bn a year that we pay to the EU. The subsidies to protect agriculture itself , let alone other sectors, will cost much more.
No, that’s not what I was doing at all. What I was saying is that in terms of policy there is no difference between BXP and the Tories now. If, despite this, people still identify as BXP and not Tory can we assume they will vote tactically for the Tories when a GE comes? On the other side of the equation, it is clear there are substantial policy differences between the anti-No Deal parties, but it seems to me there is more likelihood of tactical voting among their supporters because preventing No Deal will be seen as a priority. In Warwick & Leamington, for example, I imagine a lot of otherwise natural LDs will hold their noses to vote Labour to keep the Tory out; while in, say, many SW seats a lot of even Corbyn-inclined voters will go LD to stop the Tory.
That's what I think too, though it's hard to be sure of anything at the moment. Boris is assisting tactical voting by being so militant on No Deal.
One thing we don't know if how people will respond if No Deal happens and the result is not immediate catastrophe, but rather a series of administrative hiccups and long-term effects which aren't immediately apparent. Does the Brexit Party collapse? Do the LibDems campaign to Rejoin, or will that look just tiresome? Do Remainers take revenge on the Tories at the next opportunity, or think "oh, that wasn't as bad as I thought"? I genuinely think we have little clue.
If No Deal happens, and the Tories survive in government in the aftermath, I think it has a decent chance of looking like 79-81 redux / on steroids. Economics 101, putting up trade barriers is never good, says there will be an impact of some significant size, and the analysis does show a regionalised impact. If other events then come along to distract, will the Tory shires, Remainy or Leavy, but relatively insulated from the worst chaos the same, just think, OK and return to type.
Much depends on when a GE might come about, but this is the possibility that leads me to reject TSEs Hard Brexit to discredit Brexit temptation.
Well, as someone has already said, we've been here before. Polls showing a Conservative lead in Wales are nothing new - 41-35 just before the 2017 GE as I recall which was stupendously accurate as it ended up 36-49.
5-party politics in Wales - a good advertisement for plural democracy. The story is of course the collapse of the Labour vote from 49% in 2017 to 22% now. The Con-Lab vote share is down 36.5% since 2017 which is slightly greater than other areas.
The swing from Labour to Conservative is 9%, the swing from Labour to the LDs is 19% and the swing from Conservative to :LD is 10.5%. The four UK polls published on Saturday evening showed the Con-LD swing ranging from 10.5% (Opinium) to 13% (ComRes).
The Numbercruncher poll for Brecon & Radnor, conducted before Boris Johnson ascended to the pit of Downing Street, showed a 17% swing from Conservative to Lib Dem so clearly there has been a recovery of sorts in the Conservative position though not perhaps as dramatic as some might have hoped.
On a 10.5% swing Brecon & Radnor becomes very close but as we know applying UNS to individual seats is a recipe for punting disaster. The questions for me regarding B&R are first, the scale of the Labour collapse (they polled 17% in 2017 but could we be looking at a lost deposit?) and second, the degree to which TBP will eat into BOTH the Labour and Conservative votes.
No, that’s not what I was doing at all. What I was saying is that in terms of policy there is no difference between BXP and the Tories now. If, despite this, people still identify as BXP and not Tory can we assume they will vote tactically for the Tories when a GE comes? On the other side of the equation, it is clear there are substantial policy differences between the anti-No Deal parties, but it seems to me there is more likelihood of tactical voting among their supporters because preventing No Deal will be seen as a priority. In Warwick & Leamington, for example, I imagine a lot of otherwise natural LDs will hold their noses to vote Labour to keep the Tory out; while in, say, many SW seats a lot of even Corbyn-inclined voters will go LD to stop the Tory.
That's what I think too, though it's hard to be sure of anything at the moment. Boris is assisting tactical voting by being so militant on No Deal.
One thing we don't know if how people will respond if No Deal happens and the result is not immediate catastrophe, but rather a series of administrative hiccups and long-term effects which aren't immediately apparent. Does the Brexit Party collapse? Do the LibDems campaign to Rejoin, or will that look just tiresome? Do Remainers take revenge on the Tories at the next opportunity, or think "oh, that wasn't as bad as I thought"? I genuinely think we have little clue.
And that’s what Boris is hoping for we have left and nothing big and obvious goes wrong.
Ok a few people like me won’t be able to fly around Europe for work but we don’t count in the scheme of things
My guess is that the very divisive and confrontational approach Johnson is taking is unlikely to see things calming down whatever the No Deal outcome is. He is focused solely on harvesting BXP votes. That will have long-term consequences. I am increasingly confident he will be the last Tory to win an election for a very long time.
No Deal will lead to a collapse of his Government followed by an election by February 2021 with an administration committed to taking us back into the EU ASAP, at any price.
It will lead to us rejoining before 2025 and committed, this time, to the Euro, Schengen, common tax, asylum and defence, and any future federalisation on top.
There’s a small chance (20%?) that it proves decisive in changing public opinion, and goes ok, leading to the UK permanently charting its own course. But that’s very optimistic.
Otherwise a vote for No Deal is a vote for a Federal Europe and not something sensible eurosceptics should be tempted by.
There is no risk with No Deal after all who would be thick enough to take those risks and vote for it.
What do people make of Dominic Cummings? I've tried reading some of his blog but what exactly does he WANT? One would expect politics to be about an end point from which you work backwards to determine the means.
I can't get past the idea of the outsider who turns into a wrecker. Him and Boris make an odd couple.
He wants to WIN.
Which make him and BoZo best buddies.
The destruction after the win doesn't interest either of them.
It's why they're buddies at the moment. Cummings wants the chaos and destruction, because he sees the opportunities for people like him (or his self-image, anyway). People who understand history, the art of war and complex numbers. Johnson will blub when chaos and destruction happen, because people won't like him personally any more. In the end, one of them will let the other down.
Plaid lead Labour on the Yougov Welsh Assembly poll but are still well short of a majority and Adam Price would need both Tory and LD support to replace the hapless Labour incumbent Mark Drakeford as First Minister
Hi HYUFD, Boris has really impressed me on getting elected and deserves the bounce in the polls he has got. I thought if Hunt got elected he would be continuity May and Boris would shake it up more, but I am surprised by what he has done (actually don't know what I was expecting, but I'm still surprised).
But here is a question: If Corbyn has announced all this spending, Conservatives would be down on him like a ton of bricks. Peter the Punter commented on an earlier post by me that everyone thought Corbyn could turn us into Venezuela, but it looks like it could be Boris.
As a Conservative how can you support this? Isn't this 100% opposite to being a Conservative?
Conservatism was killed by globalisation, the bank bailouts and a trillion quid of government borrowing.
All we're arguing about now is who get what place at the trough.
Is the potential collapse of Labour in Wales and Scotland an indictment of Labour specifically, or the union in general? I get the feeling that it isn't just Labour is doing badly, but the structure of the union is fraying in such a way that more negatively impacts Labour.
Nothing to do with the Union here in Wales.
Labour have been in government far too long as the NHS and education in Wales fail.
And I have personal experience of the Wales NHS failure and I see it in the local schools attended by my grandchildren
The Labour vote began to collapse in Wales when Carwyn Jones stood down and was replaced by a Corbynista automaton.
The problems in Wales NHS and our schools hasn't just happened.
There is no risk with No Deal after all who would be thick enough to want if and vote for it.
You put great faith in the EU not being thick and moving on the WA then.....
Nope I edited something to avoid cutting the quotes(I’m on a mobile) and screwed up the edit.
It was supposed to be an attack on the ERG thinking No Deal is risk free for them. I actually think it is because they will just claim the No Deal Boris delivered wasn’t their No Deal because the ERGs unicorn No Deal had pink fur
Is the potential collapse of Labour in Wales and Scotland an indictment of Labour specifically, or the union in general? I get the feeling that it isn't just Labour is doing badly, but the structure of the union is fraying in such a way that more negatively impacts Labour.
Nothing to do with the Union here in Wales.
Labour have been in government far too long as the NHS and education in Wales fail.
And I have personal experience of the Wales NHS failure and I see it in the local schools attended by my grandchildren
The Labour vote began to collapse in Wales when Carwyn Jones stood down and was replaced by a Corbynista automaton.
My family are all Neath way and Welsh Language teachers, so all I know is they all vote Plaid, but would never countenance Tories.
Well, as someone has already said, we've been here before. Polls showing a Conservative lead in Wales are nothing new - 41-35 just before the 2017 GE as I recall which was stupendously accurate as it ended up 36-49.
5-party politics in Wales - a good advertisement for plural democracy. The story is of course the collapse of the Labour vote from 49% in 2017 to 22% now. The Con-Lab vote share is down 36.5% since 2017 which is slightly greater than other areas.
The swing from Labour to Conservative is 9%, the swing from Labour to the LDs is 19% and the swing from Conservative to :LD is 10.5%. The four UK polls published on Saturday evening showed the Con-LD swing ranging from 10.5% (Opinium) to 13% (ComRes).
The Numbercruncher poll for Brecon & Radnor, conducted before Boris Johnson ascended to the pit of Downing Street, showed a 17% swing from Conservative to Lib Dem so clearly there has been a recovery of sorts in the Conservative position though not perhaps as dramatic as some might have hoped.
On a 10.5% swing Brecon & Radnor becomes very close but as we know applying UNS to individual seats is a recipe for punting disaster. The questions for me regarding B&R are first, the scale of the Labour collapse (they polled 17% in 2017 but could we be looking at a lost deposit?) and second, the degree to which TBP will eat into BOTH the Labour and Conservative votes.
B&R will be close. I don't think too many postal ballots went in before Johnson became PM.
Plaid lead Labour on the Yougov Welsh Assembly poll but are still well short of a majority and Adam Price would need both Tory and LD support to replace the hapless Labour incumbent Mark Drakeford as First Minister
That nearly happened in 2007. The Liberal Democrats declined a coalition by a casting vote. As a result, Plaid joined Labour - a move that was disastrous for everybody, but which they had little choice about.
Whether Adam Price would be as open to a rainbow coalition as Ieuan Wyn Jones was is a very different question. My instinctive answer is personnel changes have made it far more difficult.
Without that PC, LD and Tory Coalition or Confidence and Supply arrangement Price will not be First Minister and certainly not able to get any legislation through
Well, as someone has already said, we've been here before. Polls showing a Conservative lead in Wales are nothing new - 41-35 just before the 2017 GE as I recall which was stupendously accurate as it ended up 36-49.
5-party politics in Wales - a good advertisement for plural democracy. The story is of course the collapse of the Labour vote from 49% in 2017 to 22% now. The Con-Lab vote share is down 36.5% since 2017 which is slightly greater than other areas.
The swing from Labour to Conservative is 9%, the swing from Labour to the LDs is 19% and the swing from Conservative to :LD is 10.5%. The four UK polls published on Saturday evening showed the Con-LD swing ranging from 10.5% (Opinium) to 13% (ComRes).
The Numbercruncher poll for Brecon & Radnor, conducted before Boris Johnson ascended to the pit of Downing Street, showed a 17% swing from Conservative to Lib Dem so clearly there has been a recovery of sorts in the Conservative position though not perhaps as dramatic as some might have hoped.
On a 10.5% swing Brecon & Radnor becomes very close but as we know applying UNS to individual seats is a recipe for punting disaster. The questions for me regarding B&R are first, the scale of the Labour collapse (they polled 17% in 2017 but could we be looking at a lost deposit?) and second, the degree to which TBP will eat into BOTH the Labour and Conservative votes.
B&R will be close. I don't think too many postal ballots went in before Johnson became PM.
The other thing is people who sent postal ballots in at the beginning are the true believers, the party loyalists.
Those who are uncertain or who are likely to switch (for whatever reason), delay sending in their ballot.
My guess is B&R will be closer than many LDs think. Few constituencies in Wales are a natural match to their support base any more.
Plaid lead Labour on the Yougov Welsh Assembly poll but are still well short of a majority and Adam Price would need both Tory and LD support to replace the hapless Labour incumbent Mark Drakeford as First Minister
Hi HYUFD, Boris has really impressed me on getting elected and deserves the bounce in the polls he has got. I thought if Hunt got elected he would be continuity May and Boris would shake it up more, but I am surprised by what he has done (actually don't know what I was expecting, but I'm still surprised).
But here is a question: If Corbyn has announced all this spending, Conservatives would be down on him like a ton of bricks. Peter the Punter commented on an earlier post by me that everyone thought Corbyn could turn us into Venezuela, but it looks like it could be Boris.
As a Conservative how can you support this? Isn't this 100% opposite to being a Conservative?
Conservatives have often gone on spending splurges when the need arises, conservativism may not be socialism but it is not always about balanced budgets either, certainly not populist Boris type conservatism see Reagan, Cheney or Berlusconi or indeed Trump, that is more classical liberalism
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
The problem with this strategy is that by taking extreme positions on the backstop etc, Johnson isn't threatening No Deal to those who would prefer to Remain. He's promising No Deal.
He’s also promising No Deal to the substantial minority that wants one. He has to deliver. From here any deal will be seen as a betrayal.
Yes. It's hard to see what Johnson's policy is, beyond clobbering the Brexit Party. He's unlikely even to succeed in that because he has to deliver something and they don't.
It's possible Johnson does actually believe he can get a deal with the EU that doesn't involve the backstop.
Labour won't collapse in Wales because old habits die hard but a combination of the fall of Carwyn Jones, the mess Labour have made of the Welsh NHS, apathy, the social media efforts of Plaid-supporting independents, and of course, Corbyn - I can honestly say I've barely ever met a Welshperson who has any time for him - have combined to drive down the vote.
I still reckon Labour would pip the rest in a Westminster election but under Corbyn I don't think we'll see the 20 pint margins Blair enjoyed.
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
The problem with this strategy is that by taking extreme positions on the backstop etc, Johnson isn't threatening No Deal to those who would prefer to Remain. He's promising No Deal.
He’s also promising No Deal to the substantial minority that wants one. He has to deliver. From here any deal will be seen as a betrayal.
Yes. It's hard to see what Johnson's policy is, beyond clobbering the Brexit Party. He's unlikely even to succeed in that because he has to deliver something and they don't.
It's possible Johnson does actually believe he can get a deal with the EU that doesn't involve the backstop.
I normally try to tidy up while the cake is baking, so that when it comes to icing the kitchen is relatively well-ordered, but (a) what sort of mess will he make icing those cakes before putting them on a plate, and (b) that mug doesn't look like it has been used. Crumbs!
Comments
I do not believe Scottish nationalism can be defeated without making the case for Britain.
Relevance for next GE nil
Talk about the hype not matching the result .
On today's Welsh Assembly poll Plaid are miles from a majority and would need Tory and LD support to make Adam Price First Minister over the hapless Labour incumbent Mark Drakeford
Corbyn must resign.
With Scotland, Wales and possibly London being so negative for labour there must be virtually no chance of them being in government post a GE, so no chance of a vonc anytime soon by them
But did voters’ willingness to flirt with UKIP back then:
- influence how the other parties responded?
- begin to weaken the loyalty of the Conservative base?
- make it much easier for Tory leavers subsequently to contemplate voting for (or signing up to) an alternative party?
Yesterday I met a Brecon voter who must have been well into his 80s who told me that when he was a young man a bitter argument between Tory and Labour within his family led him to vote Liberal, and he said that he’d voted Liberal every time since. Relevance of story: very little, except that what starts as an exception can become a habit. Or at least break a previous habit.
Indeed only 39% of Scots want to stop Brexit altogether with Opinium yesterday and 35% of Scots back No Deal anyway
Labour have been in government far too long as the NHS and education in Wales fail.
And I have personal experience of the Wales NHS failure and I see it in the local schools attended by my grandchildren
Factually incorrect? Check.
Fuelled by an obsessive jealousy of anyone who doesn’t live in a mud hut outside Lampeter? Check.
Must be a post by the @YBarddCwsc.
Clue it was in 2015
Is Jezza still very keen to have an election after that poll?
There isn't enough mud and the rain would wash it away even if there was.
He refused the chance to vote for one only the other day.
I know he says otherwise but Mr Present But Not Involved isn't somebody whose word I would take.
The nearest decent mud huts are at Cwmystwyth.
Edit - I suppose Pentre Jane Morgan in Aber is slightly closer, but I said 'decent' mud huts.
The "Welsh" Green party is a mythical party. It doesn't exist, but it has a leader.
It is a regional branch of the Green Party of EnglandandWales. It contains Jew-haters (Bartolotti with her 'final solution') and Welsh language haters.
It is by some way the most ugly party in Wales. Or it would be if it actually existed.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/07/28/no-deal-exit-would-leave-uk-farmers-defenceless/
One thing we don't know if how people will respond if No Deal happens and the result is not immediate catastrophe, but rather a series of administrative hiccups and long-term effects which aren't immediately apparent. Does the Brexit Party collapse? Do the LibDems campaign to Rejoin, or will that look just tiresome? Do Remainers take revenge on the Tories at the next opportunity, or think "oh, that wasn't as bad as I thought"? I genuinely think we have little clue.
Ok a few people like me won’t be able to fly around Europe for work but we don’t count in the scheme of things
https://twitter.com/Adamprice/status/1155732319271043072?s=20
Being on 23% with 60% disliking for example may be worse than being on 19% with 40% disliking.
Whether Adam Price would be as open to a rainbow coalition as Ieuan Wyn Jones was is a very different question. My instinctive answer is personnel changes have made it far more difficult.
Mind you he does fit in with the other MPs in that party who have been sacked for lying
But I'm far from certain the Liberal Democrats can beat them with their candidate.
It's a bizarre situation.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/what-kamala-harris-believes/ar-AAEWN21?li=BBnbfcL&utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark
I suspect that the debate this week will shake out some more of the fringe candidates on 1-2% - if they don't really grip the audience this time, it's hard to see them doing it later.
Oh and I’m fully prepared for a No Deal exit - this current project is a favour from the large corporate due to them delaying something else for a few months
My point was that your original claim was demonstrably incorrect about Scotland, and not to be trusted for Wales -- a country with which you have barely no acquaintanceship, as you believe we all live in dunghills and mud huts.
I do sometimes wonder whether why there is so much casual racism against the Welsh and Scots on this blog.
What he put in is garbage...
I maintain that in the end the Scots will vote to remain in the Union for many reasons not least to prevent a border from Carlisle to Berwick impeding the 60% of exports to England and for many other technical and logistic reasons
Furthermore, in view of the agonies over the EU referendum do the Scots wish to put themselves through that process until the dust has settled
Finally there is a great amount of affection for the Union by many Scots and I personally know SNP members who support the Union and not Independence
It will lead to us rejoining before 2025 and committed, this time, to the Euro, Schengen, common tax, asylum and defence, and any future federalisation on top.
There’s a small chance (20%?) that it proves decisive in changing public opinion, and goes ok, leading to the UK permanently charting its own course. But that’s very optimistic.
Otherwise a vote for No Deal is a vote for a Federal Europe and not something sensible eurosceptics should be tempted by.
But here is a question: If Corbyn has announced all this spending, Conservatives would be down on him like a ton of bricks. Peter the Punter commented on an earlier post by me that everyone thought Corbyn could turn us into Venezuela, but it looks like it could be Boris.
As a Conservative how can you support this? Isn't this 100% opposite to being a Conservative?
Ironically, we are supposed to save 10bn a year that we pay to the EU. The subsidies to protect agriculture itself , let alone other sectors, will cost much more.
Much depends on when a GE might come about, but this is the possibility that leads me to reject TSEs Hard Brexit to discredit Brexit temptation.
Well, as someone has already said, we've been here before. Polls showing a Conservative lead in Wales are nothing new - 41-35 just before the 2017 GE as I recall which was stupendously accurate as it ended up 36-49.
5-party politics in Wales - a good advertisement for plural democracy. The story is of course the collapse of the Labour vote from 49% in 2017 to 22% now. The Con-Lab vote share is down 36.5% since 2017 which is slightly greater than other areas.
The swing from Labour to Conservative is 9%, the swing from Labour to the LDs is 19% and the swing from Conservative to :LD is 10.5%. The four UK polls published on Saturday evening showed the Con-LD swing ranging from 10.5% (Opinium) to 13% (ComRes).
The Numbercruncher poll for Brecon & Radnor, conducted before Boris Johnson ascended to the pit of Downing Street, showed a 17% swing from Conservative to Lib Dem so clearly there has been a recovery of sorts in the Conservative position though not perhaps as dramatic as some might have hoped.
On a 10.5% swing Brecon & Radnor becomes very close but as we know applying UNS to individual seats is a recipe for punting disaster. The questions for me regarding B&R are first, the scale of the Labour collapse (they polled 17% in 2017 but could we be looking at a lost deposit?) and second, the degree to which TBP will eat into BOTH the Labour and Conservative votes.
Cummings wants the chaos and destruction, because he sees the opportunities for people like him (or his self-image, anyway). People who understand history, the art of war and complex numbers.
Johnson will blub when chaos and destruction happen, because people won't like him personally any more.
In the end, one of them will let the other down.
All we're arguing about now is who get what place at the trough.
They have been in decline for years
It was supposed to be an attack on the ERG thinking No Deal is risk free for them. I actually think it is because they will just claim the No Deal Boris delivered wasn’t their No Deal because the ERGs unicorn No Deal had pink fur
I think Tories are issued with a special humanising cgi app that generates these images. Some are less successful than others..
https://twitter.com/brucemcd23/status/1125694609223495680
https://twitter.com/formuIadone/status/1155599107773411328
Those who are uncertain or who are likely to switch (for whatever reason), delay sending in their ballot.
My guess is B&R will be closer than many LDs think. Few constituencies in Wales are a natural match to their support base any more.
You’re obviously not an Arnie fan.
It's possible Johnson does actually believe he can get a deal with the EU that doesn't involve the backstop.
I still reckon Labour would pip the rest in a Westminster election but under Corbyn I don't think we'll see the 20 pint margins Blair enjoyed.
https://twitter.com/manctofu/status/1155597298493210624
Labour -27%
Con -9%
Brexit +18%
Lib Dem +12%
PC +5%
Perhaps this is a better perspective?