We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
You are making a fundamental error there
You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales
However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA
As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.
Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
Why? My enemy's enemy is my friend? As Alex Salmond noted years ago, Welsh and Scottish nationalism are quite different.
Plaid is our sister party. They speak at our conference and vice versa. We share whip and resources at Westminster and European Parliament. Our activists help each other. Indeed I think our membership even entitles is to attend branch meetings and vote if we live in the other country. We certainly had a PC student activist fully involved in our branch for a while.
Everyone on here keeps telling us that the Conservatives are an English nationalist party - perhaps you should partner up with them too ?
Although this Welsh poll doesn’t support that argument much..
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
The most significant news over the weekend was Jacob Rees-Mogg effectively acknowledging that the government would probably lose a vote of no confidence if held. Everything else has to be understood in that context.
Part of the strategy I have described. And an excellent wind up of Corbyn and his criticism of Swinson.
The government is falling. The question is what happens next.
If you’re Farage do you look at BXP’s strong residual support and seek to nurture it by staying clear of the Tories or do you give up on it by doing either a tacit or implicit deal? I can see strong arguments for both right now.
And on the current polling the SNP would expect to pick up 6 or 7 of the Labour seats in Scotland. Probably some of the Tory seats too. They are going to be a lot more behind a VoNC than Labour. The Lib Dems will also expect a significant increase in numbers but their leader should be careful about what she wishes for. Hence my comments about Labour's obvious weakness playing into the politics.
Given that Labour voted for it last time when they were well behind in the polls, I don't see why they wouldn't again.
But would all LAB MPs vote for it? Many would not want to do anything that could possibly allow Corbyn to become PM. Also there are fewer LAB and CON MPs and my guess is that many of those who went to TIG would not want an immediate election until they can find a solution to their own seat situations.
If all current Tory and DUP votes supported it then less than half of Labour's MPs would be needed. Assuming the SNP and Liberal Democrats would enthusiastically vote for an election right now, the figure is less.
Bottom line is, I don't think there would be a problem actually calling an election, and it's clear Johnson is preparing for one. Whether he is wise, or would win it, are somewhat different questions.
The latest yougov had Lib Dem’s on twice the Tory vote in Scotland. Where is Fraser getting his data from? As a Scottish Tory member I would vote Lib Dem for Westminster.
Today's YouGov showing the Scottish Brexit Party vote collapsing back to the Scottish Tories
Oh, so not the Opinium that had the SNP on 46%, Nicola Sturgeon with a positive approval rating, and Johnson on -33 and Corbyn on -49 approval in Scotland.
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
So Revoke it is. There’s some nice prices on that.
It will not be revoke.
We are still in the deal - no deal - remain arena but remain can only happen after a second referendum.
Anything else would be unacceptable
The government is threatening not to seek to extend even if there’s a vote of no confidence and general election spanning 31 October. In those circumstances I could easily see a revocation being forced as a final act of this Parliament.
I do respect your views Alastair so how do you see the mechanics of that happening?
Why? My enemy's enemy is my friend? As Alex Salmond noted years ago, Welsh and Scottish nationalism are quite different.
Plaid is our sister party. They speak at our conference and vice versa. We share whip and resources at Westminster and European Parliament. Our activists help each other. Indeed I think our membership even entitles is to attend branch meetings and vote if we live in the other country. We certainly had a PC student activist fully involved in our branch for a while.
Everyone on here keeps telling us that the Conservatives are an English nationalist party - perhaps you should partner up with them too ?
Although this Welsh poll doesn’t support that argument much..
Nope. You’ve lost me. I’ve read what you’ve written five times now and can’t make head nor tail of it. Could you please write in clear and concise English so that we have a glimmer of hope of understanding what point you are trying to make.
Genuinely interesting. Ruth Davidson doesn't bother to hide that she thinks Johnson a turd. Her argument: never mind that, I get to decide what happens in the Scottish Conservatives, I don't sign up to the No Deal pledge, and in any case the Union is the key thing.
Not wholly convincing, but interesting nevertheless. We also learn that she has no plans to quit and she won't instigate a Scottish Conservative party that is independent of the English party (Although she does allow for the Scottish membership to overrule her on the last point).
So what actually is her strategy, just quietly tutting and shaking her head in a corner?
I would say Davidson's strategy, which is to pitch the Conservatives as the natural inclusive party of the Union, has been utterly undermined by her English colleagues.
She is reduced to arguing that the Good need not be the enemy of the Utterly Crap, if the alternative is Unnecessary Catastrophe.
Not a particularly compelling argument IMO
Ruth has never had any compelling arguments.
She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - Scottish independence, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.
But Brexit itself is almost entirely being opposed to stuff...
We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
You are making a fundamental error there
You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales
However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA
As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.
Why? My enemy's enemy is my friend? As Alex Salmond noted years ago, Welsh and Scottish nationalism are quite different.
Plaid is our sister party. They speak at our conference and vice versa. We share whip and resources at Westminster and European Parliament. Our activists help each other. Indeed I think our membership even entitles is to attend branch meetings and vote if we live in the other country. We certainly had a PC student activist fully involved in our branch for a while.
Everyone on here keeps telling us that the Conservatives are an English nationalist party - perhaps you should partner up with them too ?
Although this Welsh poll doesn’t support that argument much..
Nope. You’ve lost me. I’ve read what you’ve written five times now and can’t make head nor tail of it. Could you please write in clear and concise English so that we have a glimmer of hope of understanding what point you are trying to make.
SNP partnering up with Nationalist parties like PC, Shinners and the Catalan mob.
If it’s nationalist mates you want why not the Cons or Kippers ?
Alister Jack said he would fund breakaway Scottish Conservative Party
The new Scottish Secretary offered to fund a breakaway Scottish Conservative Party, it has emerged.
Alister Jack, who built up his multi-million-pound wealth through his tent-hire and self-storage businesses, said he would put forward “significant sums of money” to back 2011 Scottish Tory leadership contender Murdo Fraser’s plan to split from the UK Conservatives in order to “detoxify” the party’s brand in Scotland.
Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
You cannot award all the labour vote to remain as I have previously stated
Then you cannot award the whole Tory vote to Leave!
We shouldn't really be trying to work out 'Leave' or 'Remain' from these questions anyway. To that extent, I agree with Justin and Nick who are constantly warning us against it.
For example, I'm perfectly happy with the Withdrawal Agreement, but I have drifted away from the Tories having voted for them in 2017 for a large number of other reasons. If I then vote for the Liberal Democrats, that isn't necessarily because I want us to revoke at all costs (which would be damaging).
Why? My enemy's enemy is my friend? As Alex Salmond noted years ago, Welsh and Scottish nationalism are quite different.
Plaid is our sister party. They speak at our conference and vice versa. We share whip and resources at Westminster and European Parliament. Our activists help each other. Indeed I think our membership even entitles is to attend branch meetings and vote if we live in the other country. We certainly had a PC student activist fully involved in our branch for a while.
Everyone on here keeps telling us that the Conservatives are an English nationalist party - perhaps you should partner up with them too ?
Although this Welsh poll doesn’t support that argument much..
Nope. You’ve lost me. I’ve read what you’ve written five times now and can’t make head nor tail of it. Could you please write in clear and concise English so that we have a glimmer of hope of understanding what point you are trying to make.
SNP partnering up with Nationalist parties like PC, Shinners and the Catalan mob.
If it’s nationalist mates you want why not the Cons or Kippers ?
Or is everything English toxic ?
By your definition, every political party on the planet is “nationalist”. Unless there is some party somewhere that is campaigning for a world parliament and world government. If there is, I don’t think they have managed to get any parliamentarians elected anywhere.
But thank you for making it clear what you were trying to do: smear.
Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
I think not too, aren't about 25% of Welsh voters from outside Wales? Nonetheless PC control of the Assembly may well put substantial further strain on the Union.
We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
You are making a fundamental error there
You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales
However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA
As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.
Why? My enemy's enemy is my friend? As Alex Salmond noted years ago, Welsh and Scottish nationalism are quite different.
Plaid is our sister party. They speak at our conference and vice versa. We share whip and resources at Westminster and European Parliament. Our activists help each other. Indeed I think our membership even entitles is to attend branch meetings and vote if we live in the other country. We certainly had a PC student activist fully involved in our branch for a while.
Everyone on here keeps telling us that the Conservatives are an English nationalist party - perhaps you should partner up with them too ?
Although this Welsh poll doesn’t support that argument much..
Nope. You’ve lost me. I’ve read what you’ve written five times now and can’t make head nor tail of it. Could you please write in clear and concise English so that we have a glimmer of hope of understanding what point you are trying to make.
SNP partnering up with Nationalist parties like PC, Shinners and the Catalan mob.
If it’s nationalist mates you want why not the Cons or Kippers ?
Or is everything English toxic ?
By your definition, every political party on the planet is “nationalist”. Unless there is some party somewhere that is campaigning for a world parliament and world government. If there is, I don’t think they have managed to get any parliamentarians elected anywhere.
But thank you for making it clear what you were trying to do: smear.
Alister Jack said he would fund breakaway Scottish Conservative Party
The new Scottish Secretary offered to fund a breakaway Scottish Conservative Party, it has emerged.
Alister Jack, who built up his multi-million-pound wealth through his tent-hire and self-storage businesses, said he would put forward “significant sums of money” to back 2011 Scottish Tory leadership contender Murdo Fraser’s plan to split from the UK Conservatives in order to “detoxify” the party’s brand in Scotland.
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
The most significant news over the weekend was Jacob Rees-Mogg effectively acknowledging that the government would probably lose a vote of no confidence if held. Everything else has to be understood in that context.
YouGov/ITV had a poll conducted 5-7 May 2017 which had the following result: Lab 35, Con 41, UKIP 4, PC 11, LD 7, Green 1.
Whatever happened exactly a month later ? I have seen this before.
The thing about these political honeymoons - which all new PMs seem to get - is that they are a period during which the relief and novelty of a change in leadership lead people to suspend any critical judgement on the new leader. When this bubble is burst - usually following the first unpopular decision - normal business is resumed.
Unusually, the 2017 GE was called during May’s first year honeymoon - and I do wonder whether the bigger story of that election is not so much that Corbyn suddenly found his mojo but that the forced electoral choice burst the honeymoon balloon and when voters’ critical eyes were turned on May for the first time, they didn’t like what they saw.
A thought for Bozo if indeed he is considering a honeymoon election bid?
Well put.
You can smell the panic as the poll rubbishers are out in force.
Genuinely interesting. Ruth Davidson doesn't bother to hide that she thinks Johnson a turd. Her argument: never mind that, I get to decide what happens in the Scottish Conservatives, I don't sign up to the No Deal pledge, and in any case the Union is the key thing.
Not wholly convincing, but interesting nevertheless. We also learn that she has no plans to quit and she won't instigate a Scottish Conservative party that is independent of the English party (Although she does allow for the Scottish membership to overrule her on the last point).
So what actually is her strategy, just quietly tutting and shaking her head in a corner?
I would say Davidson's strategy, which is to pitch the Conservatives as the natural inclusive party of the Union, has been utterly undermined by her English colleagues.
She is reduced to arguing that the Good need not be the enemy of the Utterly Crap, if the alternative is Unnecessary Catastrophe.
Not a particularly compelling argument IMO
Ruth has never had any compelling arguments.
She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - Scottish independence, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.
But Brexit itself is almost entirely being opposed to stuff...
For Ruth it is a matter of priority: the Union trumps Brexit.
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
The most significant news over the weekend was Jacob Rees-Mogg effectively acknowledging that the government would probably lose a vote of no confidence if held. Everything else has to be understood in that context.
I missed that.
Clearly Jeremy Corbyn did as well, given he's been excusing his refusal to back a VoNC due to his belief he'd lose it.
Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
It looks as though one consequence of the Tories becoming more of an English nationalist party, is a big boost to Scottish and perhaps now Welsh nationalism.
Talking to Scottish friends, they're coming round to the idea of independence having previously been opposed.
Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
I think not too, aren't about 25% of Welsh voters from outside Wales? Nonetheless PC control of the Assembly may well put substantial further strain on the Union.
PC would be unlikely to gain a majority in the assembly
We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
You are making a fundamental error there
You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales
However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA
As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.
I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree
In what way?
He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA
We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
You are making a fundamental error there
You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales
However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA
As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.
I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree
In what way?
He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
The problem with this strategy is that by taking extreme positions on the backstop etc, Johnson isn't threatening No Deal to those who would prefer to Remain. He's promising No Deal.
We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
You are making a fundamental error there
You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales
However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA
As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.
I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree
In what way?
He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA
Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.
I'm not sure why Scully was so excited - aren't the shifts broadly in line with the average national poll changes since when the last Welsh poll was taken? The same comments apply - Boris had a medium-sized bounce, mostly from the Brexit Party, LibDems a bit up, will these figures go up or down when the initial Borisgasm is over, who knows?
YouGov/ITV had a poll conducted 5-7 May 2017 which had the following result: Lab 35, Con 41, UKIP 4, PC 11, LD 7, Green 1.
Whatever happened exactly a month later ? I have seen this before.
The thing about these political honeymoons - which all new PMs seem to get - is that they are a period during which the relief and novelty of a change in leadership lead people to suspend any critical judgement on the new leader. When this bubble is burst - usually following the first unpopular decision - normal business is resumed.
Unusually, the 2017 GE was called during May’s first year honeymoon - and I do wonder whether the bigger story of that election is not so much that Corbyn suddenly found his mojo but that the forced electoral choice burst the honeymoon balloon and when voters’ critical eyes were turned on May for the first time, they didn’t like what they saw.
A thought for Bozo if indeed he is considering a honeymoon election bid?
Well put.
You can smell the panic as the poll rubbishers are out in force.
The poll confirms the fall in support for labour that has been evident for sometime
Those labour supporters hoping it is a short term issue are going to be very disappointed
I am not sure about the 'Boris' effect and still expect the lib dems to take B & R comfortably on thursday
Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
I think not too, aren't about 25% of Welsh voters from outside Wales? Nonetheless PC control of the Assembly may well put substantial further strain on the Union.
PC would be unlikely to gain a majority in the assembly
They used to say that about the SNP in Scotland. Things change.
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
The most significant news over the weekend was Jacob Rees-Mogg effectively acknowledging that the government would probably lose a vote of no confidence if held. Everything else has to be understood in that context.
We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
You are making a fundamental error there
You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales
However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA
As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.
I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree
In what way?
He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA
Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.
True. Although Brecon will be won for the LibDems because Tory remainers are switching to them. High time Labour remainers came to the same conclusion.
Genuinely interesting. Ruth Davidson doesn't bother to hide that she thinks Johnson a turd. Her argument: never mind that, I get to decide what happens in the Scottish Conservatives, I don't sign up to the No Deal pledge, and in any case the Union is the key thing.
Not wholly convincing, but interesting nevertheless. We also learn that she has no plans to quit and she won't instigate a Scottish Conservative party that is independent of the English party (Although she does allow for the Scottish membership to overrule her on the last point).
So what actually is her strategy, just quietly tutting and shaking her head in a corner?
I would say Davidson's strategy, which is to pitch the Conservatives as the natural inclusive party of the Union, has been utterly undermined by her English colleagues.
She is reduced to arguing that the Good need not be the enemy of the Utterly Crap, if the alternative is Unnecessary Catastrophe.
Not a particularly compelling argument IMO
Ruth has never had any compelling arguments.
She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - Scottish independence, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.
But Brexit itself is almost entirely being opposed to stuff...
For Ruth it is a matter of priority: the Union trumps Brexit.
We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
You are making a fundamental error there
You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales
However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA
As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.
I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree
In what way?
He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA
What do people make of Dominic Cummings? I've tried reading some of his blog but what exactly does he WANT? One would expect politics to be about an end point from which you work backwards to determine the means.
He seems like a strange kind of anarchist wanting to expose and bring down the established order and the frauds who benefit from it. But for what? He's very keen on data and using hard science. There's something to that but does he realise that part of what went wrong with economics was a faith in models and treating a social or you might say human science as if it were a branch of physics.
I can't get past the idea of the outsider who turns into a wrecker. Him and Boris make an odd couple.
We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
You are making a fundamental error there
You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales
However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA
As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.
I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree
In what way?
He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA
Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.
True. Although Brecon will be won for the LibDems because Tory remainers are switching to them. High time Labour remainers came to the same conclusion.
We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
You are making a fundamental error there
You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales
However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA
As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.
I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree
In what way?
He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA
Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.
True. Although Brecon will be won for the LibDems because Tory remainers are switching to them. High time Labour remainers came to the same conclusion.
It’s a process. I do think tactical voting will be massive next time around. One thing I wonder, though, is whether people who continue to identify as BXP, despite the Tories becoming the BXP, will go out and vote tactically for the Tories? There must be something stopping them making that final leap.
Matches what I am seeing here in B&R. Division and infighting, rather than Brexit per se, is the main LibDem attack line against the Tories. And Tory remainers are the key group of swing voters.
Genuinely interesting. Ruth Davidson doesn't bother to hide that she thinks Johnson a turd. Her argument: never mind that, I get to decide what happens in the Scottish Conservatives, I don't sign up to the No Deal pledge, and in any case the Union is the key thing.
Not wholly convincing, but interesting nevertheless. We also learn that she has no plans to quit and she won't instigate a Scottish Conservative party that is independent of the English party (Although she does allow for the Scottish membership to overrule her on the last point).
So what actually is her strategy, just quietly tutting and shaking her head in a corner?
I would say Davidson's strategy, which is to pitch the Conservatives as the natural inclusive party of the Union, has been utterly undermined by her English colleagues.
She is reduced to arguing that the Good need not be the enemy of the Utterly Crap, if the alternative is Unnecessary Catastrophe.
Not a particularly compelling argument IMO
Ruth has never had any compelling arguments.
She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - Scottish independence, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.
I think that unfair. Davidson is for a liberal Union of values. Her problem is that her English colleagues have completely trashed those values.
We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
You are making a fundamental error there
You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales
However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA
As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.
I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree
In what way?
He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA
Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.
True. Although Brecon will be won for the LibDems because Tory remainers are switching to them. High time Labour remainers came to the same conclusion.
I think Lab Remainers will vote LD in B&R
Yes, if there is a market on Labour losing its deposit I’d say that was a sure bet.
We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
You are making a fundamental error there
You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales
However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA
As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.
I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree
In what way?
He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA
Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.
True. Although Brecon will be won for the LibDems because Tory remainers are switching to them. High time Labour remainers came to the same conclusion.
Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.
Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?
It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.
The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
The problem with this strategy is that by taking extreme positions on the backstop etc, Johnson isn't threatening No Deal to those who would prefer to Remain. He's promising No Deal.
He’s also promising No Deal to the substantial minority that wants one. He has to deliver. From here any deal will be seen as a betrayal.
I'm not sure why Scully was so excited - aren't the shifts broadly in line with the average national poll changes since when the last Welsh poll was taken? The same comments apply - Boris had a medium-sized bounce, mostly from the Brexit Party, LibDems a bit up, will these figures go up or down when the initial Borisgasm is over, who knows?
I agree with you Nick.
I expected a Plaid lead with Lib Dems maybe second but this poll is a big disappointment to Plaid, though is does confirm labour's fall which was widely expected
We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
You are making a fundamental error there
You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales
However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA
As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.
I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree
In what way?
He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA
Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.
True. Although Brecon will be won for the LibDems because Tory remainers are switching to them. High time Labour remainers came to the same conclusion.
It’s a process. I do think tactical voting will be massive next time around. One thing I wonder, though, is whether people who continue to identify as BXP, despite the Tories becoming the BXP, will go out and vote tactically for the Tories? There must be something stopping them making that final leap.
If you are switching because of positive support for a principal policy, that’s not really tactical voting. Strictly, tactical voting is the choice of lesser evils.
Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
I think not too, aren't about 25% of Welsh voters from outside Wales? Nonetheless PC control of the Assembly may well put substantial further strain on the Union.
PC would be unlikely to gain a majority in the assembly
They used to say that about the SNP in Scotland. Things change.
There is absolutely no comparision between the SNP and Plaid
It's like comparing Manchester City with Macclesfield Town
We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
You are making a fundamental error there
You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales
However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA
As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.
I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree
In what way?
He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA
Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.
True. Although Brecon will be won for the LibDems because Tory remainers are switching to them. High time Labour remainers came to the same conclusion.
It’s a process. I do think tactical voting will be massive next time around. One thing I wonder, though, is whether people who continue to identify as BXP, despite the Tories becoming the BXP, will go out and vote tactically for the Tories? There must be something stopping them making that final leap.
If you are switching because of positive support for a principal policy, that’s not really tactical voting. Strictly, tactical voting is the choice of lesser evils.
Say you are Leave supporter in Sunderland. You are unlikely to identify with Johnson. You might with the BP or Labour on anything apart from Brexit. If that person votes Conservative, it will be for tactical reasons.
Is the potential collapse of Labour in Wales and Scotland an indictment of Labour specifically, or the union in general? I get the feeling that it isn't just Labour is doing badly, but the structure of the union is fraying in such a way that more negatively impacts Labour.
Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
I think not too, aren't about 25% of Welsh voters from outside Wales? Nonetheless PC control of the Assembly may well put substantial further strain on the Union.
PC would be unlikely to gain a majority in the assembly
They used to say that about the SNP in Scotland. Things change.
There is absolutely no comparision between the SNP and Plaid
It's like comparing Manchester City with Macclesfield Town
Again, they used to laugh at the SNP. The political map of Britain is changing. I would not be confident of anything right now. What happens if the LD/PC/Green Brecon alliance is replicated for a GE? The LDs and Greens are very big on devolution, aren’t they? More of that is the next step for Wales.
Applying UNS to Electoral calculus implied Wales result yields
Labour 18 seats Tories 16 seats Brexit party 0 Lib Dems 2 Plaid 4
Sounds about right were these figures to be replicated, although I would suggest LDs a couple higher and Tories a couple less.
Montgomeryshire is 28.8/Lib Dem 28.7 in the model so likely a Lib Dem gain in reality. Cardiff Central also probably a Lib Dem gain, they're 0.5 pts behind Labour on my model there.
Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
I think not too, aren't about 25% of Welsh voters from outside Wales? Nonetheless PC control of the Assembly may well put substantial further strain on the Union.
PC would be unlikely to gain a majority in the assembly
They used to say that about the SNP in Scotland. Things change.
There is absolutely no comparision between the SNP and Plaid
It's like comparing Manchester City with Macclesfield Town
Again, they used to laugh at the SNP. The political map of Britain is changing. I would not be confident of anything right now. What happens if the LD/PC/Green Brecon alliance is replicated for a GE? The LDs and Greens are very big on devolution, aren’t they? More of that is the next step for Wales.
.
The Green party in EnglandandWales is not pro-Devolution and explicitly voted against forming a separate Welsh Green party.
Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?
It is a truely depressing thought for labour that Corbyn has lost Scotland, Wales and possibly London and more than that, has enabled the likelyhood of a no deal Brexit by not being an unequivocal remain backing leader of the opposition.
He is a disaster for labour and the country at large as he could have made the difference over a second referendum.
Not only is he responsible for 'Boris' but he has taken his party to a point that many of his mps must be terrified of a vonc as so many of their seats would be under attack from Boris on one side and the Lib Dems and SNP on the other
We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
You are the
Labour in Wales is an explicitly Remain party. That doesn’t mean all it’s voters are, but it does imply leaving the EU is not a primary concern. Why give votes to a Remain party otherwise? Likewise, there will be Tory voters in Wales who support Remain.
I would suggest Stephen Kinnock would disagree
In what way?
He rejects labour's remain policy and referendum and supports the WDA
Just as there will be Welsh Tories who oppose leaving the EU. But that does not mean that the Tories in Wales are anything but a Leave party. Likewise, Welsh Labour is explicitly a Remain one.
True. Although Brecon will be won for the LibDems because Tory remainers are switching to them. High time Labour remainers came to the same conclusion.
It’s a process. I do think tactical voting will be massive next time around. One thing I wonder, though, is whether people who continue to identify as BXP, despite the Tories becoming the BXP, will go out and vote tactically for the Tories? There must be something stopping them making that final leap.
If you are switching because of positive support for a principal policy, that’s not really tactical voting. Strictly, tactical voting is the choice of lesser evils.
Say you are Leave supporter in Sunderland. You are unlikely to identify with Johnson. You might with the BP or Labour on anything apart from Brexit. If that person votes Conservative, it will be for tactical reasons.
For sure, if you identify with Farage but vote Tory because they can win, that’s tactical. But Southam was trying to claim former Labour voters who have switched LibDem because they oppose Brexit as tactical, when actually they are now simply LibDem voters. Of course, they might switch back. But then again they might not.
Labour still wants to see a bloc of working class voters as its own “possession”, when the world is moving on, and class politics is becoming history.
By my reckoning the last time the Tories won most votes and seats in Wales at a Westminster election was under Lord Derby in 1859, so if the Tories are ahead in Wales this morning that would be an absolutely amazing result.
Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
The persisting BXP vote post Boris is an interesting one. Presumably some simply distrust the charlatan, but others must be the "Leave but hate the Tories" vote in the valleys and steel towns. In a pre Brexit election both will be suspicious of the Tories, in a post Brexit election why would they switch?
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
PC will not succeed to gain independence here in Wales
I think not too, aren't about 25% of Welsh voters from outside Wales? Nonetheless PC control of the Assembly may well put substantial further strain on the Union.
PC would be unlikely to gain a majority in the assembly
They used to say that about the SNP in Scotland. Things change.
There is absolutely no comparision between the SNP and Plaid
It's like comparing Manchester City with Macclesfield Town
Again, they used to laugh at the SNP. The political map of Britain is changing. I would not be confident of anything right now. What happens if the LD/PC/Green Brecon alliance is replicated for a GE? The LDs and Greens are very big on devolution, aren’t they? More of that is the next step for Wales.
.
The Green party in EnglandandWales is not pro-Devolution and explicitly voted against forming a separate Welsh Green party.
There will be no long-term LD/Green/PC alliance.
The Green Party is in favour of self determination. The Welsh members voted against having a separate party, so they didn't split.
Corbyn has lost Scotland, lost London, and now lost Wales. When will he resign?
It is a truely depressing thought for labour that Corbyn has lost Scotland, Wales and possibly London and more than that, has enabled the likelyhood of a no deal Brexit by not being an unequivocal remain backing leader of the opposition.
He is a disaster for labour and the country at large as he could have made the difference over a second referendum.
Not only is he responsible for 'Boris' but he has taken his party to a point that many of his mps must be terrified of a vonc as so many of their seats would be under attack from Boris on one side and the Lib Dems and SNP on the other
I completely agree. He is both despicable and inept.
Alister Jack said he would fund breakaway Scottish Conservative Party
The new Scottish Secretary offered to fund a breakaway Scottish Conservative Party, it has emerged.
Alister Jack, who built up his multi-million-pound wealth through his tent-hire and self-storage businesses, said he would put forward “significant sums of money” to back 2011 Scottish Tory leadership contender Murdo Fraser’s plan to split from the UK Conservatives in order to “detoxify” the party’s brand in Scotland.
Detoxification carried out by 'Queen's 11' Murdo and self described huntin', fishin' toff No Deal Jack? That'll be curing arsenic poisoning with Novichok then.
We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:
Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
You are making a fundamental error there
You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales
However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA
As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
No, I am not. Labour's decline lately is because of Leavers de-camping to BXP. Labour in its current low numbers is as much Remain as Tory voters are Leave. Look at you. A Remainer who will vote Brexit, if there is a deal. Most Labour voters [ current ones ] will vote Remain. Kinnock and Yorkshire Labour MPs are reading the polls wrong. To be fair, only a handful of Labour MPs are clamouring for a deal. If they all did, we'd have 150 Labour MPs doing it. Not Flint or Mann [ who are Tories anyway ], Hoey [DUP].
I'm not sure why Scully was so excited - aren't the shifts broadly in line with the average national poll changes since when the last Welsh poll was taken? The same comments apply - Boris had a medium-sized bounce, mostly from the Brexit Party, LibDems a bit up, will these figures go up or down when the initial Borisgasm is over, who knows?
I agree with you Nick.
I expected a Plaid lead with Lib Dems maybe second but this poll is a big disappointment to Plaid, though is does confirm labour's fall which was widely expected
Uh.. Plaid are in the lead (in Assembly) and I am sure they will be delighted with that - altjough could do better. But with Labour vote deserting in 3 or 4 different directions noone is getting in front...
Why? My enemy's enemy is my friend? As Alex Salmond noted years ago, Welsh and Scottish nationalism are quite different.
Plaid is our sister party. They speak at our conference and vice versa. We share whip and resources at Westminster and European Parliament. Our activists help each other. Indeed I think our membership even entitles is to attend branch meetings and vote if we live in the other country. We certainly had a PC student activist fully involved in our branch for a while.
Everyone on here keeps telling us that the Conservatives are an English nationalist party - perhaps you should partner up with them too ?
Although this Welsh poll doesn’t support that argument much..
Nope. You’ve lost me. I’ve read what you’ve written five times now and can’t make head nor tail of it. Could you please write in clear and concise English so that we have a glimmer of hope of understanding what point you are trying to make.
Harry , hates Scotland , and lives in the 17th century , he is your real ex pat unionist Scot.
What do people make of Dominic Cummings? I've tried reading some of his blog but what exactly does he WANT? One would expect politics to be about an end point from which you work backwards to determine the means.
I can't get past the idea of the outsider who turns into a wrecker. Him and Boris make an odd couple.
He wants to WIN.
Which make him and BoZo best buddies.
The destruction after the win doesn't interest either of them.
Comments
Labour are doomed though. PC largest party in the assembly doesn't look good for Unionists. One lesson of recent years is that nationalism trumps economic interest .
Although this Welsh poll doesn’t support that argument much..
You cannot award all the labour vote to remain as I have previously stated
Bottom line is, I don't think there would be a problem actually calling an election, and it's clear Johnson is preparing for one. Whether he is wise, or would win it, are somewhat different questions.
If it’s nationalist mates you want why not the Cons or Kippers ?
Or is everything English toxic ?
The new Scottish Secretary offered to fund a breakaway Scottish Conservative Party, it has emerged.
Alister Jack, who built up his multi-million-pound wealth through his tent-hire and self-storage businesses, said he would put forward “significant sums of money” to back 2011 Scottish Tory leadership contender Murdo Fraser’s plan to split from the UK Conservatives in order to “detoxify” the party’s brand in Scotland.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/alister-jack-said-he-would-fund-breakaway-scottish-conservative-party-1-4972564/amp
For example, I'm perfectly happy with the Withdrawal Agreement, but I have drifted away from the Tories having voted for them in 2017 for a large number of other reasons. If I then vote for the Liberal Democrats, that isn't necessarily because I want us to revoke at all costs (which would be damaging).
But thank you for making it clear what you were trying to do: smear.
We've had Communist MPs as well, e.g. Saklatvala.
Or was he telling porkies?
Talking to Scottish friends, they're coming round to the idea of independence having previously been opposed.
I wonder if Gasly's last outing effectively cooked his goose.
Those labour supporters hoping it is a short term issue are going to be very disappointed
I am not sure about the 'Boris' effect and still expect the lib dems to take B & R comfortably on thursday
https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1154879575840710657?s=21
Read the full article, and you will see that they have (if for the assembly). Which is remarkable.
That wasn't a joke, btw.
But, a good poll for the Tories, TBF. (Pulpstar was right yesterday).
He seems like a strange kind of anarchist wanting to expose and bring down the established order and the frauds who benefit from it. But for what? He's very keen on data and using hard science. There's something to that but does he realise that part of what went wrong with economics was a faith in models and treating a social or you might say human science as if it were a branch of physics.
I can't get past the idea of the outsider who turns into a wrecker. Him and Boris make an odd couple.
Matches what I am seeing here in B&R. Division and infighting, rather than Brexit per se, is the main LibDem attack line against the Tories. And Tory remainers are the key group of swing voters.
I expected a Plaid lead with Lib Dems maybe second but this poll is a big disappointment to Plaid, though is does confirm labour's fall which was widely expected
Suffice it to say I think he's a man who believes his brilliant when he isn't and spends all his time trying to bridge the gap.
It's like comparing Manchester City with Macclesfield Town
Labour 18 seats
Tories 16 seats
Brexit party 0
Lib Dems 2
Plaid 4
He spent some years in Russia, and I can report that his wife calls him “Domski”.
Corbyn will not lose either London or Wales at the next GE either.
When is Gardenwalker going to stop underestimating Corbyn?
Cardiff Central also probably a Lib Dem gain, they're 0.5 pts behind Labour on my model there.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Xl2fYLdwnm2wc09n3Kb8ZmNpk3Sa4Qcu6njhXH7mZck/edit?usp=sharing
Wales tab
The Green party in EnglandandWales is not pro-Devolution and explicitly voted against forming a separate Welsh Green party.
There will be no long-term LD/Green/PC alliance.
He is a disaster for labour and the country at large as he could have made the difference over a second referendum.
Not only is he responsible for 'Boris' but he has taken his party to a point that many of his mps must be terrified of a vonc as so many of their seats would be under attack from Boris on one side and the Lib Dems and SNP on the other
Labour still wants to see a bloc of working class voters as its own “possession”, when the world is moving on, and class politics is becoming history.
I still reckon the 'stop the Tories' line will protect labour from the worst of it.
He is both despicable and inept.
Labour needs the strongest of wake-up calls.
That'll be curing arsenic poisoning with Novichok then.
Look at you. A Remainer who will vote Brexit, if there is a deal.
Most Labour voters [ current ones ] will vote Remain. Kinnock and Yorkshire Labour MPs are reading the polls wrong. To be fair, only a handful of Labour MPs are clamouring for a deal. If they all did, we'd have 150 Labour MPs doing it. Not Flint or Mann [ who are Tories anyway ], Hoey [DUP].
The only reason they won't be sixth is because Plaid and the Greens aren't standing.
Gardenwalker has never even visited Wales. His world is bounded by the M25.
Which make him and BoZo best buddies.
The destruction after the win doesn't interest either of them.