Skip to content
Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could Welsh Labour be about to experience a near wipe-out simi

SystemSystem Posts: 12,600
edited July 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could Welsh Labour be about to experience a near wipe-out similar to that which Scottish Labour saw at GE2015?

Generated by IJG JPEG Library

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    https://twitter.com/InternetHippo/status/1155501378011369472

    This is the most centrist Dem thing ever.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Who would win then? Plaid Cymru is traditionally limited by its language policies.

    Perhaps the answer is all of the above with Conservatives, LibDems and Plaid Cymru taking seats in different parts of Wales.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    It's good to be reminded of Jim Callaghan.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,751
    Stereotomy said:

    https://twitter.com/InternetHippo/status/1155501378011369472

    This is the most centrist Dem thing ever.

    Oddly Specific Kamala Harris Policy Generator:
    https://perchance.org/pgk4gv0c6p
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,630
    Stereotomy said:

    https://twitter.com/InternetHippo/status/1155501378011369472

    This is the most centrist Dem thing ever.

    How unbelievably specific, lol.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    The Times links Home Secretary Priti Patel to someone who used to work for the Bin Laden construction company (not the terrorist part of the family) which at least from the non-paywalled part of the story seems a bit weak.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/priti-patel-home-secretary-was-guest-of-bin-laden-go-between-p673fhzzr
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    If you look at Plaid Cymru's target seats, the swings needed are massive for them to gain Labour seats directly. Their second best target needs a swing of 17.62% for example. If the Labour vote falls sharply in Wales, it'll only really be the Tories who benefit.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Artist said:

    If you look at Plaid Cymru's target seats, the swings needed are massive for them to gain Labour seats directly. Their second best target needs a swing of 17.62% for example. If the Labour vote falls sharply in Wales, it'll only really be the Tories who benefit.

    That is quite possible. The Cameron-era policy of cutting Welsh seats was based on Labour's dominance but then the blue team won eight seats in 2010 and 11 seats in 2015, suggesting there was no systematic bias in Wales, as the conspiracy theorists had it when there were no Conservative MPs under Blair.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    Chinese population peak could happen within 3 and a half years according to the latest estimates.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/03/chinas-population-could-peak-in-2023-heres-why-that-matters.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1155703091926315008
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,545
    Artist said:

    If you look at Plaid Cymru's target seats, the swings needed are massive for them to gain Labour seats directly. Their second best target needs a swing of 17.62% for example. If the Labour vote falls sharply in Wales, it'll only really be the Tories who benefit.

    Tbf if you look back at Scottish results prior to Labour’s collapse, you could have said the same about the SNP. Yet they now hold most of those central belt seats where they used to need a massive swing, if with small majorities.

    The challenge for PC is to get past the language issue. Some of their results, in for example Rhondda, suggests it could be possible.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    There are a thousand problems with a politics split between left and right. But politics institutionally divided between Leave and Remain would be far worse, because we wouldn’t be fighting about economic and social policies. We’d be fighting about the sort of people we are and believe our opponents to be. It’s one thing to think that the other side have plans that won’t work: you try to win power by persuading voters that your plans will work better for them. But if politics is a battle of values, there is no such victory to be won, no centre ground in which to compromise: just an endless angry stalemate between leaders using grievance to energise their base.

    So well done, prime minister, for accepting the need for politics to help the people it forgot. But remember, the only way to win a culture war is not to fight one.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/boris-johnson-has-learnt-the-lessons-of-brexit-vote-g6l2kfqrb
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,692
    edited July 2019
    RobD said:

    Stereotomy said:

    https://twitter.com/InternetHippo/status/1155501378011369472

    This is the most centrist Dem thing ever.

    How unbelievably specific, lol.
    Seems to be capped at £20k too.

    And - scratch the surface - it turns out she is concerned about "Black" entrepreneurs, however that is defined this morning.

    Wonder if Rachel Dolezal qualifies.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Who exactly is the gun pointing at?

    It appears to be us...


  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1155706676269338624
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,545
    Labour is becoming increasingly irrelevant to the new political climate. They need to choose between a defensible minority position as a left-wing party along French lines, or bidding to lead a cross-party drive in opposition to Tory Brexit as Will Hutton suggests here:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/28/corbyn-must-choose-lead-alliance-against-brexit-right-or-step-aside

    My own view is that both of these paths will prove too traumatic for Labour, whose cumbersome internal processes simply won’t be able to act quickly enough to respond to the looming threat from Bozo’s extremism. The better course is for the more sensible politicians to up sticks and join the LibDem/Green alliance.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,692
    edited July 2019
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Artist said:

    If you look at Plaid Cymru's target seats, the swings needed are massive for them to gain Labour seats directly. Their second best target needs a swing of 17.62% for example. If the Labour vote falls sharply in Wales, it'll only really be the Tories who benefit.

    That is quite possible. The Cameron-era policy of cutting Welsh seats was based on Labour's dominance but then the blue team won eight seats in 2010 and 11 seats in 2015, suggesting there was no systematic bias in Wales, as the conspiracy theorists had it when there were no Conservative MPs under Blair.

    I thought it was based on Wales having approx 20% too many MPs for the number of people.

    Yep - Cameron was cynical - but the reduction was a correct proposal.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/ITVWales/status/1155708813204512768
  • Swindon_AddickSwindon_Addick Posts: 21
    If you try to guess at a result by plugging generic numbers into the Electoral Calculus site (I used 20% each for Tory, Labour, LD & Brexit on the UK level) and asking for a Wales-only seat projection you end up with most of Labour's losses being to the Brexit Party, and the Tories being wiped out by them. Labour would be down to perhaps 7 seats on that uneducated guess.
    As usual, always be careful interpreting this model, not least because BP doesn't have the campaigning infrastructure to win all the seats its poll numbers might suggest, but it would suggest Labour in Wales might actually benefit from the Tories recovering some of their missing votes from the Brexit Party.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/smitajamdar/status/1155708377445601280
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Fingers crossed for a good Plaid Cymru showing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,545
    Swindon_Addick said:

    If you try to guess at a result by plugging generic numbers into the Electoral Calculus site (I used 20% each for Tory, Labour, LD & Brexit on the UK level) and asking for a Wales-only seat projection you end up with most of Labour's losses being to the Brexit Party, and the Tories being wiped out by them. Labour would be down to perhaps 7 seats on that uneducated guess.
    As usual, always be careful interpreting this model, not least because BP doesn't have the campaigning infrastructure to win all the seats its poll numbers might suggest, but it would suggest Labour in Wales might actually benefit from the Tories recovering some of their missing votes from the Brexit Party.

    Calculus is just tweaked UNS and therefore pretty much bust as far as the current polling environment is concerned. Try it on Flavible - although in your scenario the result might very well be the same.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    MattW said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Artist said:

    If you look at Plaid Cymru's target seats, the swings needed are massive for them to gain Labour seats directly. Their second best target needs a swing of 17.62% for example. If the Labour vote falls sharply in Wales, it'll only really be the Tories who benefit.

    That is quite possible. The Cameron-era policy of cutting Welsh seats was based on Labour's dominance but then the blue team won eight seats in 2010 and 11 seats in 2015, suggesting there was no systematic bias in Wales, as the conspiracy theorists had it when there were no Conservative MPs under Blair.

    I thought it was based on Wales having approx 20% too many MPs for the number of people.

    Yep - Cameron was cynical - but the reduction was a correct proposal.
    Too many Labour MPs was the main concern, I think you will find. It dates from when there were no blue rosettes in Wales. The question of smaller constituencies is a separate one, and aiui was for the same reason as in the American senate, to prevent Wales being steamrollered by England. There might be a case that Wales no longer needs special protection after devolution and its own Assembly (albeit less powerful than its Scottish equivalent).

    The point today is the Conservatives have recognised that if they campaign properly, they can be effective in Wales, and this much-hyped poll might strengthen that further.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Its out

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    StuartDickson said:

    Fingers crossed for a good Plaid Cymru showing.

    Why? My enemy's enemy is my friend? As Alex Salmond noted years ago, Welsh and Scottish nationalism are quite different.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,545
    timmo said:

    Its out

    LibDem/PC/Green alliance sweeps into the lead....
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Yet another Ruthie u-turn. She’s spent years fighting this, and now realises it’s her only hope.

    ‘The Progressives’: Could Boris and Brexit prompt a new Scottish party?

    Senior Scottish Tories believe Johnson will prove so toxic to voters north of the Border — and therefore so injurious to the Union — that it would be best all-round if they broke away and formed a separate party in Scotland. In doing so, they contend, Davidson would be well-placed to defend the Union and appeal to Tory-averse voters while swiftly shoving Johnson out of the picture. Operation Arse has been replaced by Operation Elbow.

    Opposition to a split among the MP group is not seen as too much of an impediment among proponents. ‘If the blockage to this idea is the opposition of MPs, Boris calling an early election might remove that issue,’ my senior MSP says, waspishly.

    https://stephendaisley.com/2019/07/27/the-progressives-could-boris-and-brexit-prompt-a-new-scottish-party/
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    timmo said:

    Its out


    A Wales-wide LibDem/Plaid Remain alliance along the lines of the one in Brecon would be rather interesting on those numbers.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    StuartDickson said:

    Fingers crossed for a good Plaid Cymru showing.

    Not too bad for them, in 5th place!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Sandpit said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Fingers crossed for a good Plaid Cymru showing.

    Not too bad for them, in 5th place!

    Ahead in the Assembly vote. Close to a record score in the Westminster one.

  • eekeek Posts: 30,814
    timmo said:

    Its out

    So a short term boost for the tories at the expense of brexit while Labour is losing to the Lib Dems. Not earth shattering really it’s the same mess as the rest of England
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,545
    StuartDickson said:

    Yet another Ruthie u-turn. She’s spent years fighting this, and now realises it’s her only hope.

    ‘The Progressives’: Could Boris and Brexit prompt a new Scottish party?

    Senior Scottish Tories believe Johnson will prove so toxic to voters north of the Border — and therefore so injurious to the Union — that it would be best all-round if they broke away and formed a separate party in Scotland. In doing so, they contend, Davidson would be well-placed to defend the Union and appeal to Tory-averse voters while swiftly shoving Johnson out of the picture. Operation Arse has been replaced by Operation Elbow.

    Opposition to a split among the MP group is not seen as too much of an impediment among proponents. ‘If the blockage to this idea is the opposition of MPs, Boris calling an early election might remove that issue,’ my senior MSP says, waspishly.

    https://stephendaisley.com/2019/07/27/the-progressives-could-boris-and-brexit-prompt-a-new-scottish-party/

    Surely it can’t be true that the Scottish Tories are seriously considering renaming themselves “the progressives”?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Fingers crossed for a good Plaid Cymru showing.

    Why? My enemy's enemy is my friend? As Alex Salmond noted years ago, Welsh and Scottish nationalism are quite different.
    Plaid is our sister party. They speak at our conference and vice versa. We share whip and resources at Westminster and European Parliament. Our activists help each other. Indeed I think our membership even entitles is to attend branch meetings and vote if we live in the other country. We certainly had a PC student activist fully involved in our branch for a while.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,692
    edited July 2019
    The Welsh Assembly would be interesting.

    Do they still ban balloons in there?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    YouGov/ITV had a poll conducted 5-7 May 2017 which had the following result:
    Lab 35, Con 41, UKIP 4, PC 11, LD 7, Green 1.

    Whatever happened exactly a month later ? I have seen this before.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,545
    The second part of the ITV poll is actually the more striking - the poll for the assembly is the first ever to put PC in the lead.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    IanB2 said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Yet another Ruthie u-turn. She’s spent years fighting this, and now realises it’s her only hope.

    ‘The Progressives’: Could Boris and Brexit prompt a new Scottish party?

    Senior Scottish Tories believe Johnson will prove so toxic to voters north of the Border — and therefore so injurious to the Union — that it would be best all-round if they broke away and formed a separate party in Scotland. In doing so, they contend, Davidson would be well-placed to defend the Union and appeal to Tory-averse voters while swiftly shoving Johnson out of the picture. Operation Arse has been replaced by Operation Elbow.

    Opposition to a split among the MP group is not seen as too much of an impediment among proponents. ‘If the blockage to this idea is the opposition of MPs, Boris calling an early election might remove that issue,’ my senior MSP says, waspishly.

    https://stephendaisley.com/2019/07/27/the-progressives-could-boris-and-brexit-prompt-a-new-scottish-party/

    Surely it can’t be true that the Scottish Tories are seriously considering renaming themselves “the progressives”?
    That’s the name they used to use when fighting local government elections, up until the 50s(?) At national level they were the Unionist Party, until 60s merger with English and Welsh Conservative Party.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    IanB2 said:

    The second part of the ITV poll is actually the more striking - the poll for the assembly is the first ever to put PC in the lead.

    Excellent!

    I can understand why Unionists are bigging up the Westminster bit.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    eek said:

    timmo said:

    Its out

    So a short term boost for the tories at the expense of brexit while Labour is losing to the Lib Dems. Not earth shattering really it’s the same mess as the rest of England
    So basically on this the Tories should win B&R. Correct ? Because PC and Green changes cancel each other out.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,545
    surbiton19 said:

    YouGov/ITV had a poll conducted 5-7 May 2017 which had the following result:
    Lab 35, Con 41, UKIP 4, PC 11, LD 7, Green 1.

    Whatever happened exactly a month later ? I have seen this before.

    The thing about these political honeymoons - which all new PMs seem to get - is that they are a period during which the relief and novelty of a change in leadership lead people to suspend any critical judgement on the new leader. When this bubble is burst - usually following the first unpopular decision - normal business is resumed.

    Unusually, the 2017 GE was called during May’s first year honeymoon - and I do wonder whether the bigger story of that election is not so much that Corbyn suddenly found his mojo but that the forced electoral choice burst the honeymoon balloon and when voters’ critical eyes were turned on May for the first time, they didn’t like what they saw.

    A thought for Bozo if indeed he is considering a honeymoon election bid?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    StuartDickson said:

    IanB2 said:

    The second part of the ITV poll is actually the more striking - the poll for the assembly is the first ever to put PC in the lead.

    Excellent!

    I can understand why Unionists are bigging up the Westminster bit.
    bit rich coming from the king of Scottish subsamples
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,561
    IanB2 said:

    The second part of the ITV poll is actually the more striking - the poll for the assembly is the first ever to put PC in the lead.

    I would agree with that. But even with that, note that on a US Labour would still be the largest party at both Westminster and Cardiff. Indeed, on these numbers the result would be total paralysis.

    I would also caution against taking these too seriously. We had polls like this is in the lead up to 2010 and 2011 and the expected changes didn't really materialise.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    edited July 2019
    surbiton19 said:

    YouGov/ITV had a poll conducted 5-7 May 2017 which had the following result:
    Lab 35, Con 41, UKIP 4, PC 11, LD 7, Green 1.

    Whatever happened exactly a month later ? I have seen this before.

    https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2017-05-08/labour-support-increases-but-conservatives-still-ahead/

    In fact, with this one, the Tory lead was 10%.
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wuxi3zs1qh/WelshBarometerResults_April17_WestminsterVI_W.pdf
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    SquareRoot said:

    StuartDickson said:

    IanB2 said:

    The second part of the ITV poll is actually the more striking - the poll for the assembly is the first ever to put PC in the lead.

    Excellent!

    I can understand why Unionists are bigging up the Westminster bit.
    bit rich coming from the king of Scottish subsamples
    Nope. HY has taken my crown. A couple of weeks ago he was spinning a sub-sample of a sub-sample of a sub-sample. I kid you not.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,561
    surbiton19 said:

    eek said:

    timmo said:

    Its out

    So a short term boost for the tories at the expense of brexit while Labour is losing to the Lib Dems. Not earth shattering really it’s the same mess as the rest of England
    So basically on this the Tories should win B&R. Correct ? Because PC and Green changes cancel each other out.
    On this actually Scully gives B&R to the Liberal Democrats at a General Election, never mind a by-election.

    It's one reason why I'm a bit sceptical of it.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    IanB2 said:

    surbiton19 said:

    YouGov/ITV had a poll conducted 5-7 May 2017 which had the following result:
    Lab 35, Con 41, UKIP 4, PC 11, LD 7, Green 1.

    Whatever happened exactly a month later ? I have seen this before.

    The thing about these political honeymoons - which all new PMs seem to get - is that they are a period during which the relief and novelty of a change in leadership lead people to suspend any critical judgement on the new leader. When this bubble is burst - usually following the first unpopular decision - normal business is resumed.

    Unusually, the 2017 GE was called during May’s first year honeymoon - and I do wonder whether the bigger story of that election is not so much that Corbyn suddenly found his mojo but that the forced electoral choice burst the honeymoon balloon and when voters’ critical eyes were turned on May for the first time, they didn’t like what they saw.

    A thought for Bozo if indeed he is considering a honeymoon election bid?
    Well put.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,348
    Labour - Plaid coalition for the next Assembly according to the poll
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    hamiltonace said:

    The latest yougov had Lib Dem’s on twice the Tory vote in Scotland. Where is Fraser getting his data from? As a Scottish Tory member I would vote Lib Dem for Westminster.

    Today's YouGov showing the Scottish Brexit Party vote collapsing back to the Scottish Tories
    Oh, so not the Opinium that had the SNP on 46%, Nicola Sturgeon with a positive approval rating, and Johnson on -33 and Corbyn on -49 approval in Scotland.

    Pick and choose HY. Pick and choose.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,630
    IanB2 said:

    surbiton19 said:

    YouGov/ITV had a poll conducted 5-7 May 2017 which had the following result:
    Lab 35, Con 41, UKIP 4, PC 11, LD 7, Green 1.

    Whatever happened exactly a month later ? I have seen this before.

    The thing about these political honeymoons - which all new PMs seem to get - is that they are a period during which the relief and novelty of a change in leadership lead people to suspend any critical judgement on the new leader. When this bubble is burst - usually following the first unpopular decision - normal business is resumed.

    Unusually, the 2017 GE was called during May’s first year honeymoon - and I do wonder whether the bigger story of that election is not so much that Corbyn suddenly found his mojo but that the forced electoral choice burst the honeymoon balloon and when voters’ critical eyes were turned on May for the first time, they didn’t like what they saw.

    A thought for Bozo if indeed he is considering a honeymoon election bid?
    Hm, except Boris is/was a lot more well known than May. Suspect a lot of this is priced in already.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    ydoethur said:

    surbiton19 said:

    eek said:

    timmo said:

    Its out

    So a short term boost for the tories at the expense of brexit while Labour is losing to the Lib Dems. Not earth shattering really it’s the same mess as the rest of England
    So basically on this the Tories should win B&R. Correct ? Because PC and Green changes cancel each other out.
    On this actually Scully gives B&R to the Liberal Democrats at a General Election, never mind a by-election.

    It's one reason why I'm a bit sceptical of it.
    OK. Comparing changes to GE2017, LD/PC/GR alliance should win. But we do not know the "bounce" in B&R itself.
    However, the poll may not be that wrong at the present time.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,001
    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Welsh Labour has come out unequivocally for Remain, hasn’t it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,561
    CatMan said:

    Labour - Plaid coalition for the next Assembly according to the poll

    Assuming that is next year, that means Labour would have been in power for 25 consecutive years since 1999. That would not be a good thing even if it was composed solely of people of great wisdom, great ability and unimpeachable integrity. For a party including Alun Davies and Leighton Andrews, that is truly unhealthy.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    FF43 said:

    solarflare said:

    FF43 said:

    Genuinely interesting. Ruth Davidson doesn't bother to hide that she thinks Johnson a turd. Her argument: never mind that, I get to decide what happens in the Scottish Conservatives, I don't sign up to the No Deal pledge, and in any case the Union is the key thing.

    Not wholly convincing, but interesting nevertheless. We also learn that she has no plans to quit and she won't instigate a Scottish Conservative party that is independent of the English party (Although she does allow for the Scottish membership to overrule her on the last point).

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1155414194981916672

    So what actually is her strategy, just quietly tutting and shaking her head in a corner?
    I would say Davidson's strategy, which is to pitch the Conservatives as the natural inclusive party of the Union, has been utterly undermined by her English colleagues.

    She is reduced to arguing that the Good need not be the enemy of the Utterly Crap, if the alternative is Unnecessary Catastrophe.

    Not a particularly compelling argument IMO
    Ruth has never had any compelling arguments.

    She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - Scottish independence, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,561
    surbiton19 said:

    ydoethur said:

    surbiton19 said:

    eek said:

    timmo said:

    Its out

    So a short term boost for the tories at the expense of brexit while Labour is losing to the Lib Dems. Not earth shattering really it’s the same mess as the rest of England
    So basically on this the Tories should win B&R. Correct ? Because PC and Green changes cancel each other out.
    On this actually Scully gives B&R to the Liberal Democrats at a General Election, never mind a by-election.

    It's one reason why I'm a bit sceptical of it.
    OK. Comparing changes to GE2017, LD/PC/GR alliance should win. But we do not know the "bounce" in B&R itself.
    However, the poll may not be that wrong at the present time.
    Again, do not assume that just because the party leadership has endorsed a candidate from another party that their voters will robotically follow, especially in Brecon and Radnor. They are just as likely to abstain, and not much less likely to vote for someone else.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,778
    Good morning, everyone.

    Another race this coming weekend. Rain or hot weather could make things turbulent. Not checked the forecast yet.

    I wonder what will happen if we have another election and Labour go backwards.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Note I have updated the header to include the poll
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    Except that assumes traditional political thinking.

    There are a number of articles across the press today noting that Cummings and BoZo are fully engaged in fighting the Brexit culture war.

    It's not right v left, it's us v them. Total war, only won winner, no prisoners.

    While it may be true that crashing out is an economic catastrophe, that in turn may be the only way to defeat the Spartans.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    DavidL “Do turkeys really vote for Christmas?”

    Yes. They have bird-brains.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,871
    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,871
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/smitajamdar/status/1155708377445601280


    Whilst there might be some truth in that references to Hitler and Nazis aren’t exactly ‘light-touch’ on the other side either.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
    So Revoke it is. There’s some nice prices on that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,561
    StuartDickson said:

    FF43 said:

    solarflare said:

    FF43 said:

    Genuinely interesting. Ruth Davidson doesn't bother to hide that she thinks Johnson a turd. Her argument: never mind that, I get to decide what happens in the Scottish Conservatives, I don't sign up to the No Deal pledge, and in any case the Union is the key thing.

    Not wholly convincing, but interesting nevertheless. We also learn that she has no plans to quit and she won't instigate a Scottish Conservative party that is independent of the English party (Although she does allow for the Scottish membership to overrule her on the last point).

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1155414194981916672

    So what actually is her strategy, just quietly tutting and shaking her head in a corner?
    I would say Davidson's strategy, which is to pitch the Conservatives as the natural inclusive party of the Union, has been utterly undermined by her English colleagues.

    She is reduced to arguing that the Good need not be the enemy of the Utterly Crap, if the alternative is Unnecessary Catastrophe.

    Not a particularly compelling argument IMO
    Ruth has never had any compelling arguments.

    She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - Scottish independence, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.
    Nicola has never had any compelling arguments.

    She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - the UK, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.

    Yep, that works...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,630
    surbiton19 said:

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    I doubt 100% of Labour's vote in Wales is for Remain.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    StuartDickson said:

    DavidL “Do turkeys really vote for Christmas?”

    Yes. They have bird-brains.

    The SNP did in 1979.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ydoethur said:

    Nicola has never had any compelling arguments.

    She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - the UK, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.

    Yep, that works...

    BoZo is meeting Nippy in Edinburgh today.

    He should have gone to Govan. Persuaded her to visit the constituency, for a change.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,561
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/smitajamdar/status/1155708377445601280

    Surely the AIDS campaign was bigger? 23 million leaflets to every single house in Britain...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ydoethur said:

    StuartDickson said:

    FF43 said:

    solarflare said:

    FF43 said:

    Genuinely interesting. Ruth Davidson doesn't bother to hide that she thinks Johnson a turd. Her argument: never mind that, I get to decide what happens in the Scottish Conservatives, I don't sign up to the No Deal pledge, and in any case the Union is the key thing.

    Not wholly convincing, but interesting nevertheless. We also learn that she has no plans to quit and she won't instigate a Scottish Conservative party that is independent of the English party (Although she does allow for the Scottish membership to overrule her on the last point).

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1155414194981916672

    So what actually is her strategy, just quietly tutting and shaking her head in a corner?
    I would say Davidson's strategy, which is to pitch the Conservatives as the natural inclusive party of the Union, has been utterly undermined by her English colleagues.

    She is reduced to arguing that the Good need not be the enemy of the Utterly Crap, if the alternative is Unnecessary Catastrophe.

    Not a particularly compelling argument IMO
    Ruth has never had any compelling arguments.

    She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - Scottish independence, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.
    Nicola has never had any compelling arguments.

    She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - the UK, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.

    Yep, that works...
    Except what I said was true and what you said was false.

    But it’s the voters who will have the final say. Thank goodness.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,561
    RobD said:

    surbiton19 said:

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    I doubt 100% of Labour's vote in Wales is for Remain.
    Labour should probably be 'don't know.' As Justin is constantly reminding us, Labour voters prioritise other issues.

    Also, they're led by a dithering imbecile who can't make up what passes for his mind.

    If you want Remain, you shouldn't be voting Labour and most people aren't.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/smitajamdar/status/1155708377445601280

    Surely the AIDS campaign was bigger? 23 million leaflets to every single house in Britain...
    The People’s Vote could recycle the slogan too: don’t die of ignorance.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,001
    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
    I think he can if the choice is binary, that or leave with no deal, or the threat of an early GE is perceived to be real and likely to cost a sufficient number of the honourable members their salaries. May's third attempt didn't fail by all that much and that is when no deal had effectively been taken off the table.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,561
    edited July 2019
    StuartDickson said:

    ydoethur said:

    StuartDickson said:

    FF43 said:

    solarflare said:

    FF43 said:

    Genuinely interesting. Ruth Davidson doesn't bother to hide that she thinks Johnson a turd. Her argument: never mind that, I get to decide what happens in the Scottish Conservatives, I don't sign up to the No Deal pledge, and in any case the Union is the key thing.

    Not wholly convincing, but interesting nevertheless. We also learn that she has no plans to quit and she won't instigate a Scottish Conservative party that is independent of the English party (Although she does allow for the Scottish membership to overrule her on the last point).

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1155414194981916672

    So what actually is her strategy, just quietly tutting and shaking her head in a corner?
    I would say Davidson's strategy, which is to pitch the Conservatives as the natural inclusive party of the Union, has been utterly undermined by her English colleagues.

    She is reduced to arguing that the Good need not be the enemy of the Utterly Crap, if the alternative is Unnecessary Catastrophe.

    Not a particularly compelling argument IMO
    Ruth has never had any compelling arguments.

    She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - Scottish independence, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.
    Nicola has never had any compelling arguments.

    She is very good at telling people what she is opposed to - the UK, Brexit and Boris Johnson, for example - but when it comes to advocacy she is forever vague and constantly u-turning.

    Yep, that works...
    Except what I said was true and what you said was false.

    But it’s the voters who will have the final say. Thank goodness.
    Either way could be argued.

    The truth is the SNP have always got into tangles over detailed policy. Currency unions, spying on children, child benefit, tax powers, Police Scotland, the reasons for remaining in the EU all spring to mind.

    But that doesn't matter overmuch because the alternatives have exactly the same problem.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,001
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/smitajamdar/status/1155708377445601280

    Surely the AIDS campaign was bigger? 23 million leaflets to every single house in Britain...
    I don't think we got 23m leaflets to this house.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,561
    Dominic Raab on now.

    How far have we fallen that this man is the FS, FFS?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,561
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/smitajamdar/status/1155708377445601280

    Surely the AIDS campaign was bigger? 23 million leaflets to every single house in Britain...
    I don't think we got 23m leaflets to this house.
    I was referring to Sir Norman Fowler's famous mis-speak in the Commons.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,630
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/smitajamdar/status/1155708377445601280

    Surely the AIDS campaign was bigger? 23 million leaflets to every single house in Britain...
    I don't think we got 23m leaflets to this house.
    You sure the postman didn't put them under the doormat? Could still be there...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,001
    surbiton19 said:

    StuartDickson said:

    DavidL “Do turkeys really vote for Christmas?”

    Yes. They have bird-brains.

    The SNP did in 1979.
    The SNP are a special case.

    And on the current polling the SNP would expect to pick up 6 or 7 of the Labour seats in Scotland. Probably some of the Tory seats too. They are going to be a lot more behind a VoNC than Labour. The Lib Dems will also expect a significant increase in numbers but their leader should be careful about what she wishes for.
    Hence my comments about Labour's obvious weakness playing into the politics.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,630
    DavidL said:

    surbiton19 said:

    StuartDickson said:

    DavidL “Do turkeys really vote for Christmas?”

    Yes. They have bird-brains.

    The SNP did in 1979.
    The SNP are a special case.

    And on the current polling the SNP would expect to pick up 6 or 7 of the Labour seats in Scotland. Probably some of the Tory seats too. They are going to be a lot more behind a VoNC than Labour. The Lib Dems will also expect a significant increase in numbers but their leader should be careful about what she wishes for.
    Hence my comments about Labour's obvious weakness playing into the politics.
    Given that Labour voted for it last time when they were well behind in the polls, I don't see why they wouldn't again.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,001
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/smitajamdar/status/1155708377445601280

    Surely the AIDS campaign was bigger? 23 million leaflets to every single house in Britain...
    I don't think we got 23m leaflets to this house.
    You sure the postman didn't put them under the doormat? Could still be there...
    I'll have a look.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
    The most significant news over the weekend was Jacob Rees-Mogg effectively acknowledging that the government would probably lose a vote of no confidence if held. Everything else has to be understood in that context.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,001
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
    The most significant news over the weekend was Jacob Rees-Mogg effectively acknowledging that the government would probably lose a vote of no confidence if held. Everything else has to be understood in that context.
    Part of the strategy I have described. And an excellent wind up of Corbyn and his criticism of Swinson.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,358
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/smitajamdar/status/1155708377445601280

    Surely the AIDS campaign was bigger? 23 million leaflets to every single house in Britain...
    Perhaps save a few Bob by recycling old Protect and Survive leaflets.

    Does anyone read this sort of junkmail?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    StuartDickson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
    So Revoke it is. There’s some nice prices on that.
    How would that be done?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,880
    Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
    The most significant news over the weekend was Jacob Rees-Mogg effectively acknowledging that the government would probably lose a vote of no confidence if held. Everything else has to be understood in that context.
    Part of the strategy I have described. And an excellent wind up of Corbyn and his criticism of Swinson.
    The government is falling. The question is what happens next.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,275
    surbiton19 said:

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are making a fundamental error there

    You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales

    However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA

    As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    FrankBooth said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
    So Revoke it is. There’s some nice prices on that.
    How would that be done?
    At the ballot box.

    Despite some disgraceful slips into the abyss - attacks on judiciary and civil service, talk of suspending parliament etc - the UK is still, just about, a democracy.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    surbiton19 said:

    StuartDickson said:

    DavidL “Do turkeys really vote for Christmas?”

    Yes. They have bird-brains.

    The SNP did in 1979.
    The SNP are a special case.

    And on the current polling the SNP would expect to pick up 6 or 7 of the Labour seats in Scotland. Probably some of the Tory seats too. They are going to be a lot more behind a VoNC than Labour. The Lib Dems will also expect a significant increase in numbers but their leader should be careful about what she wishes for.
    Hence my comments about Labour's obvious weakness playing into the politics.
    Given that Labour voted for it last time when they were well behind in the polls, I don't see why they wouldn't again.
    But would all LAB MPs vote for it? Many would not want to do anything that could possibly allow Corbyn to become PM. Also there are fewer LAB and CON MPs and my guess is that many of those who went to TIG would not want an immediate election until they can find a solution to their own seat situations.
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    Dear Mike. Wales is not a Principality!!!!!!!
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    So that is Remain 56% - Leave 42%
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,275
    StuartDickson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
    So Revoke it is. There’s some nice prices on that.
    It will not be revoke.

    We are still in the deal - no deal - remain arena but remain can only happen after a second referendum.

    Anything else would be unacceptable
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited July 2019
    Best prices - Next Scottish independence referendum result

    Yes EVS
    No EVS
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Pulpstar said:

    Stronger for the Brexit party than I was expecting.

    Yep - in Wales I imagine there’s a large tranche of BXP support the Tories will never get.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    AlastairMeeks said:

    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
    The most significant news over the weekend was Jacob Rees-Mogg effectively acknowledging that the government would probably lose a vote of no confidence if held. Everything else has to be understood in that context.
    Part of the strategy I have described. And an excellent wind up of Corbyn and his criticism of Swinson.
    The government is falling. The question is what happens next.
    There's a thread in that question ;)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
    So Revoke it is. There’s some nice prices on that.
    It will not be revoke.

    We are still in the deal - no deal - remain arena but remain can only happen after a second referendum.

    Anything else would be unacceptable
    Indeed. I refer you to my reply to FrankBooth a few minutes ago.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,275
    ydoethur said:

    Dominic Raab on now.

    How far have we fallen that this man is the FS, FFS?

    He is a staggeringly poor choice
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    surbiton19 said:

    We are taking our eye of the ball by looking at the Tory lead. Assuming BXP has taken both Tory and Labour Brexit votes, this poll gives:

    Leave 42% [ 24 + 18 ], Remain 56%. In fact, swing to Remain slightly higher than the UK.

    You are making a fundamental error there

    You cannot count all the labour vote as remain, especially here in Wales

    However, I do not see this poll as anything other than confirming the decline in labour support in Wales. It does give credence to Stephen Kinnock rejecting Labour's remain policy and seeking to support the WDA

    As far as Plaid is concerned I do not see any enthusiam for indpendence despite our SNP friend's pleas
    Not sure you can count all the Labour votes as Labour either !
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,561
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/smitajamdar/status/1155708377445601280

    Surely the AIDS campaign was bigger? 23 million leaflets to every single house in Britain...
    Perhaps save a few Bob by recycling old Protect and Survive leaflets.

    Does anyone read this sort of junkmail?
    Jasper Carrott

    https://youtu.be/gcXM6tfe9YM
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour's deteriorating position in Wales, Scotland and indeed elsewhere is going to feed into the politics of the current position. It seems fairly inevitable that if an election was held at the present time they would lose seats to the Tories, the Lib Dems, PC, the SNP and quite possibly even to TBP.

    Will they really want to push a VoNC in such a situation? Do turkeys really vote for Christmas? Or will the sane part of the party think that there are worse possible outcomes than finding a way to get May's repackaged deal across the line so that this sad Parliament can continue and Boris can be seen to have failed to deliver on his ever more extravagant promises?

    It seems to me that Boris' strategy is 2 fold. Firstly, he is making no deal seem real both by undertaking the preparations that the previous administration refused to do and by his public declarations. The intention is to present Parliament with a binary choice, at last, where turning down everything is no longer an option. Secondly, he is ramping up the threat of an early election taking advantage of Corbyn's weakness so if Parliament does find a way of defying him many will lose their seats. This poll is not exactly unhelpful in that respect.

    The risks with this strategy are that Boris loses control of the Spartan/lunatic element who actually believe in no deal so that he cannot deliver May's deal suitably repackaged. But it is a risk that he has to take and it is in all our interests that he succeeds. Even those that are adamant about wanting to remain should recognise that the transitional period and an agreed departure involving a high level of regulatory equivalence makes returning to the EU in the future much easier and more likely than the UK stomping out and (apparently) refusing to pay sums it has already admitted it is due.

    I can’t see any circumstances where Boris gets the votes to pass an agreement (any agreement) in this Parliament.
    So Revoke it is. There’s some nice prices on that.
    It will not be revoke.

    We are still in the deal - no deal - remain arena but remain can only happen after a second referendum.

    Anything else would be unacceptable
    The government is threatening not to seek to extend even if there’s a vote of no confidence and general election spanning 31 October. In those circumstances I could easily see a revocation being forced as a final act of this Parliament.
This discussion has been closed.

© Vanilla Keystone Theme 2025