politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Plus ça change …..Boris’s first few days have followed TMay’s
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Plus ça change …..Boris’s first few days have followed TMay’s 2016 footsteps
Less than a week is, of course, far too short a time to make a comparison, especially one which will infuriate Boris fans. Who cares? They have their man as PM. They can take a bit of teasing.
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The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
Credit to Cycle for a shorter piece with bullets, if still right justified
I believe Boris is still intending a visit to Glasgow tomorrow avec cabinet.
https://twitter.com/AngryScotland/status/889400054326452224
Do they actually learn anything new by having a meeting in a government office in Glasgow instead of a government office in London ?
And is anyone in the 'real world' impressed by it ?
The breezy, insouciant certainty amongst boosters that a different approach/attitude of mind/personality/tone of voice, is sure to surmount all previous difficulties.
I can't remember the last time I saw one.
Perhaps there's a few where politicians can be filmed standing in front of one.
Looks quite wet at Hockenheim.
I've hedged out of my Hamilton bet by backing Max at half stakes
and
'Lessons have been learnt'
Of course, most are digital billboards.
I think we need to take a step back and look at all this another way, bracketing for a moment that pesky sideshow called Brexit.
The Conservatives have held power for 9 years. If they do win the next General Election outright they will have been in power in one form or other for between 14 and 17 years depending on the timing of the election. That would be almost on a par with the Thatcher-Major years and longer than the Blairites. Is this really likely? No.
Either bet on the apparent improbability of a Labour victory or some other make-up for other parties. But NOT on a Conservative majority.
If Boris sticks with the path he is setting out for himself he can be a great success. If he chokes, retreats and it was all a facade he will fail.
The choice is the EU's to make. If they drop the backstop demands there is no reason we can't have a deal. If they don't, then so be it we have no choice but to proceed without one.
The Tories had been polling in the 40s earlier in 2016 and were routinely polling 36-38 in the weeks prior to May's election. So getting a bounce back into the 40s was not a mammoth task.
I think the Tories under Boris are more likely to poll above 40% than under 30% at the general election, probably high 30s like Cameron's majority-winning 2015 election.
https://twitter.com/maps_election/status/1155227017295663106?s=21
https://twitter.com/DLidington/status/1155149491764436994
The backstop is a democratic abomination. As is somewhat acknowledged in the thread. For a bunch of Remainers like Lidington, May and Robbins seeking to maintain the benefits of the EU the backstop may appear like a success. But it isn't.
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1154450122207420417
Vastly lengthen the transition period. This will kick the backstop into the long grass. We can then leave on halloween as planned.
This will work because it provides political cover for all the different groups' objections. Face-saving, if you like, but saving face is often necessary for compromise. For the ERG, DUP, Ireland and the EU, even for Remainers.
We exit on halloween; nothing much changes; Boris is hailed as the greatest prime minister since Churchill and can get on with implementing Jeremy Corbyn's 2017 manifesto.
But we mostly also asked people how they'd vote in a GE. Labour was marginally up on the local elections, but by far the most frequent reply was "I honestly have no idea". Some may have been shy of telling us, but most seemed entirely frank. I doubt if anyone can rely on polls at the moment.
However it will take the EU agreeing to that. So far they're setting their nose against it as they are claiming any deal must have the backstop. Its self-defeating nonsense of course, the purpose of the backstop is to prevent a no deal situation in the future so why have a no deal situation now insisting upon it? Whether the EU have dug themselves in too deep to do the right thing is what we wait to see.
If there are fees to pay for the transition we should agree them up front, they can then put those fees towards their budget but the budget will have nothing to do with us.
" for aqabaee at last"
in the last line should read "free at last".
I'm assuming people have read that far, of course.
A massive issue is that many problems are highly complex in nature, and the best solutions are also highly complex. Yet highly complex solutions are really difficult to sell to the public.
The choice remains with the UK. If we want to Brexit quickly we can probably negotiate a standstill open ended transition that would give time to negotiate a FTA. There would be less than 10 tory rebels on the remain side, it would be up to the ERG wing to block it, if they want to stop Brexit again.
Otherwise we can gamble with no deal. It may not pass thru parliament. It may result in an election the leave parties lose. It may result in disaster. It will probably make the negotiations about our future relationship far less favourable to the UK as it will require ratification at state level with 27 countries asking for their pet issues addressed.
The choice is ours.
That is his conundrum.
One question I've just thought of is I wonder whether a mooted No Confidence vote in September will be affected by the polls in August and September? If Boris builds on his double-digit lead in YouGov yesterday and that is reflected across the pollsters then will the opposition seriously unite to trigger a VONC with Boris's No Deal Tories 10 or more points in the lead?
I imagine a VONC will be easier to stomache by those involved if the Tories are behind in the polls?
https://unwatch.org/no-joke-un-singles-out-israel-a-worlds-only-violator-of-womens-rights-iran-saudi-arabia-yemen-among-the-voters/
Surreal
That the Commons will stop him isn't certain and is looking less certain with not-so-secret Brexiteer Corbyn as LOTO and a very diverse rainbow of opposition to Boris that is supposed to unite - and presumably must both agree to install Corbyn to stop Boris and must agree to trigger an election which will see dozens of those involved lose their seats.
Any Tories who VONC Boris will lose their seats doing so. Most Tiggers will lose their seats. And if the Tories do have a double-digit lead in the polls then many Labour MPs could do so too.
If Parliament doesn't pass anything through the correct channels to extend again then when we leave on October 31st that will be the will of Parliament.
Simply triggering an election or bringing down Boris is insufficient to change the law of the land which is that we leave on October 31st.
If there are no problems to identify then we're ready to leave.
https://twitter.com/Sue_Charles/status/1155253400398979072
Don't know about the other ones, but Raab was clearly appointed solely to demonstrate that Boris made a better Foreign Secretary than at least someone.(I imagine he considered appointing Priti, but that would have been too obvious). Classic "B players hire C players".
His more interesting advice was that May could not legally refuse parliaments expressed wish to extend Brexit back in March. No-one seems to talk about that but presumably it would still stand for our current PM if parliament manages to pass similar to Cooper-Letwin again.
@roger_scully
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5h
A new Welsh Political Barometer poll by @YouGov
will be published tomorrow by @ITVWales
The results go well beyond ‘gosh’ territory, or even ‘blimey’: by some way the most dramatic poll I have ever analysed.
And in some respects a genuinely historic poll for Welsh politics.
And could Corbyn not ask the EU for an extension (or even revoke A50) before he is VoNC'ed?
Genuine questions - I don't know.
(As an aside, is there a less user-friendly website than www.dailymail.co.uk? All those pop-up ads make it an absulte nightmare to actually read an article.)
I think after seeing a few of these 'changeovers' in my life time the novelty has worn off. In fact when Gordon Brown took office the novelty had worn off and I was a sole voice criticising him from the off with his vacuous promises. Boris Johnson is just the same as his predecessors in that nothing is substantially different it is just a change of personnel.
The Brexit supporting media is doing their stuff, I can see them turning off all coverage of Farage in a GE to assist Boris and the Tories so they get what they want...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQiOA7euaYA
Westminster:
Labour: 25% (-8)
Brexit Party: 23% (+19)
Conservative: 17% (-9)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 12% (+5)
Greens: 5% (+3)
Change UK: 2% (-7)
UKIP: 1% (-2)
Others: 2% (+1)
Assembly
Labour: 25% (-6)
Plaid Cymru: 24% (no change)
Conservatives: 17% (-6)
Brexit Party: 17% (+17)
Liberal Democrats: 9% (+3)
Greens: 5% (+4)
Change UK: 1% (-3)
UKIP: 1% (-6)
Others: 1% (-4)
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/remain-10-percentage-point-lead-16527262
Mr. Above, there was no rain at Austria or the UK. Both were fantastic.
Feeling a bit off-colour so the post-race ramble might be rather curtailed. Great race today.
And rather implicitly suggests all leaders are total crap since they are unable to consider alternative perspectives otherwise and rarely do such things.