politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Plus ça change …..Boris’s first few days have followed TMay’s
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Plus ça change …..Boris’s first few days have followed TMay’s 2016 footsteps
Less than a week is, of course, far too short a time to make a comparison, especially one which will infuriate Boris fans. Who cares? They have their man as PM. They can take a bit of teasing.
Comments
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First, to say great piece.0
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And the parliamentary arithmetic is worse for Boris.0
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Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html0 -
Fourth like Labour
Credit to Cycle for a shorter piece with bullets, if still right justified0 -
'The visits to adoring fans'
I believe Boris is still intending a visit to Glasgow tomorrow avec cabinet.
https://twitter.com/AngryScotland/status/8894000543264522240 -
Very amusing piece. Why is it that PMs who get imposed upon us by party hacks - Gordon Brown, Theresa May, Boris Johnson - get much more grovelling, unquestioning media coverage than those actually voted in by general elections. There's something almost masochistic about it.0
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Didn't we see a string of billboards proclaiming "The UK will Leave the EU on March 29th?"FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html0 -
I've never understood these cabinet away days.Theuniondivvie said:'The visits to adoring fans'
I believe Boris is still intending a visit to Glasgow tomorrow avec cabinet.
https://twitter.com/AngryScotland/status/889400054326452224
Do they actually learn anything new by having a meeting in a government office in Glasgow instead of a government office in London ?
And is anyone in the 'real world' impressed by it ?0 -
I would add.
The breezy, insouciant certainty amongst boosters that a different approach/attitude of mind/personality/tone of voice, is sure to surmount all previous difficulties.0 -
Are billboards still in use ?dixiedean said:
Didn't we see a string of billboards proclaiming "The UK will Leave the EU on March 29th?"FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
I can't remember the last time I saw one.
Perhaps there's a few where politicians can be filmed standing in front of one.0 -
#F1
Looks quite wet at Hockenheim.
I've hedged out of my Hamilton bet by backing Max at half stakes0 -
'Things are different now'dixiedean said:I would add.
The breezy, insouciant certainty amongst boosters that a different approach/attitude of mind/personality/tone of voice, is sure to surmount all previous difficulties.
and
'Lessons have been learnt'0 -
Usually empty symbolism, BJ and his buds going to Glasgow the absolutely worst sort. I hope someone gets the rickshaw & loudhailer out, though I'm sure it'll be in some secret location with select fawners.another_richard said:
I've never understood these cabinet away days.Theuniondivvie said:'The visits to adoring fans'
I believe Boris is still intending a visit to Glasgow tomorrow avec cabinet.
https://twitter.com/AngryScotland/status/889400054326452224
Do they actually learn anything new by having a meeting in a government office in Glasgow instead of a government office in London ?
And is anyone in the 'real world' impressed by it ?0 -
Excellent piece as usual Ms Cyclefree. The first few days of Boris have indeed been a mirror image of the first few days of May. The main difference is that Boris's poll ratings are much worse than May's. And I suspect that his premiership will be shorter and even less successful than hers.0
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Great piece, very readable and entertaining.1
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We can but hope that he won't do too much damage in the short time allotted.anothernick said:Excellent piece as usual Ms Cyclefree. The first few days of Boris have indeed been a mirror image of the first few days of May. The main difference is that Boris's poll ratings are much worse than May's. And I suspect that his premiership will be shorter and even less successful than hers.
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Let's hope they're are right this time! I wont hold my breath but at least the ability to string things out is less even if they want to.dixiedean said:I would add.
The breezy, insouciant certainty amongst boosters that a different approach/attitude of mind/personality/tone of voice, is sure to surmount all previous difficulties.0 -
Agreed, it looks do tokenistic and even as a symbol it looks unimpressive.another_richard said:
I've never understood these cabinet away days.Theuniondivvie said:'The visits to adoring fans'
I believe Boris is still intending a visit to Glasgow tomorrow avec cabinet.
https://twitter.com/AngryScotland/status/889400054326452224
Do they actually learn anything new by having a meeting in a government office in Glasgow instead of a government office in London ?
And is anyone in the 'real world' impressed by it ?0 -
Now that's an epic tease.williamglenn said:0 -
Tories beating Labour in Wales?kle4 said:
Now that's an epic tease.williamglenn said:
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Wow. This has to mean that Boris is now winning a landslide in the Welsh valleys.kle4 said:
Now that's an epic tease.williamglenn said:0 -
I find I prefer those 15 years older than 15 younger thoughOnlyLivingBoy said:
Probably. People tend to like their kids more than their parents.dixiedean said:
I find I have much more in common with them than with the preceding generation. Was it always so?OnlyLivingBoy said:
I don't have a problem with millenials, they are more sinned against than sinners.dixiedean said:
The millennials and boomers would do well to remember there is a generation in between them which isn't particularly enamoured of either of them.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Was at a comedy event last night where one of the comedians (millennial) eviscerated the boomers. As a gen-xer I felt like a non combatant but it was biting and very funny. There is a lot of anger out there at the postwar generation. Not all of it's fair. But most of it is.Beibheirli_C said:
Largely true I suspect. I have come to the conclusion that many of that generation (the Baby Boomers) are possibly amongst the most selfish ever born. Free healthcare, free education, excellent pension schemes, high levels of employment, good housing, etc and then they pull the ladders up behind them and demand an extra £350m a week for their healthcare and free TV licences.OldKingCole said:IIRC the generation, like mine and a bit older who actually lived through the war were/are Remainers. It's their younger brothers and sisters, brought up on the likes of Biggles and The Great Escape who are Leavers.
My sympathies are entirely with the under 40s
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Now? We've got government funded propaganda for as long as I can remember, including a puff piece for Remain pre-referendum.FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html0 -
Nice article, but Cyclefree forgot to mention "British Trump"
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Where do you live? There are plenty in Manchester and Newcastle. Both in the City centre and along roadsides.another_richard said:
Are billboards still in use ?dixiedean said:
Didn't we see a string of billboards proclaiming "The UK will Leave the EU on March 29th?"FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
I can't remember the last time I saw one.
Perhaps there's a few where politicians can be filmed standing in front of one.
Of course, most are digital billboards.0 -
Dave enabled the referendum so was entitled to make his case. Boris is ramming through No Deal, which only cranks and eccentrics on the fringe have dabbled in.Philip_Thompson said:
Now? We've got government funded propaganda for as long as I can remember, including a puff piece for Remain pre-referendum.FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html0 -
You forgot massive house price inflation.kle4 said:
I find I prefer those 15 years older than 15 younger thoughOnlyLivingBoy said:
Probably. People tend to like their kids more than their parents.dixiedean said:
I find I have much more in common with them than with the preceding generation. Was it always so?OnlyLivingBoy said:
I don't have a problem with millenials, they are more sinned against than sinners.dixiedean said:
The millennials and boomers would do well to remember there is a generation in between them which isn't particularly enamoured of either of them.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Was at a comedy event last night where one of the comedians (millennial) eviscerated the boomers. As a gen-xer I felt like a non combatant but it was biting and very funny. There is a lot of anger out there at the postwar generation. Not all of it's fair. But most of it is.Beibheirli_C said:
Largely true I suspect. I have come to the conclusion that many of that generation (the Baby Boomers) are possibly amongst the most selfish ever born. Free healthcare, free education, excellent pension schemes, high levels of employment, good housing, etc and then they pull the ladders up behind them and demand an extra £350m a week for their healthcare and free TV licences.OldKingCole said:IIRC the generation, like mine and a bit older who actually lived through the war were/are Remainers. It's their younger brothers and sisters, brought up on the likes of Biggles and The Great Escape who are Leavers.
My sympathies are entirely with the under 40s
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But then it is Yougov.kle4 said:
Now that's an epic tease.williamglenn said:0 -
Boris' first polls are awful compared to Theresa May's. He's possibly scraping 30%. Hers were 40%.
I think we need to take a step back and look at all this another way, bracketing for a moment that pesky sideshow called Brexit.
The Conservatives have held power for 9 years. If they do win the next General Election outright they will have been in power in one form or other for between 14 and 17 years depending on the timing of the election. That would be almost on a par with the Thatcher-Major years and longer than the Blairites. Is this really likely? No.
Either bet on the apparent improbability of a Labour victory or some other make-up for other parties. But NOT on a Conservative majority.0 -
Mrs May's initial footsteps were the correct ones to make, the problem is what happened afterwards. She reneged on her pledges, she was thoroughly dishonest, nobody believed a word she said, she called an unnecessary election then choked during it.
If Boris sticks with the path he is setting out for himself he can be a great success. If he chokes, retreats and it was all a facade he will fail.0 -
It takes two to tango. We can't have a deal if the EU won't negotiate a good deal and that means no backstop.Stark_Dawning said:
Dave enabled the referendum so was entitled to make his case. Boris is ramming through No Deal, which only cranks and eccentrics on the fringe have dabbled in.Philip_Thompson said:
Now? We've got government funded propaganda for as long as I can remember, including a puff piece for Remain pre-referendum.FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
The choice is the EU's to make. If they drop the backstop demands there is no reason we can't have a deal. If they don't, then so be it we have no choice but to proceed without one.0 -
Boris has a long history of reneging on his pledges, is thoroughly dishonest and nobody believes a word he says. Another similarity between him and his predecessor....Philip_Thompson said:Mrs May's initial footsteps were the correct ones to make, the problem is what happened afterwards. She reneged on her pledges, she was thoroughly dishonest, nobody believed a word she said, she called an unnecessary election then choked during it.
If Boris sticks with the path he is setting out for himself he can be a great success. If he chokes, retreats and it was all a facade he will fail.1 -
Apples and oranges.Mysticrose said:Boris' first polls are awful compared to Theresa May's. He's possibly scraping 30%. Hers were 40%.
I think we need to take a step back and look at all this another way, bracketing for a moment that pesky sideshow called Brexit.
The Conservatives have held power for 9 years. If they do win the next General Election outright they will have been in power in one form or other for between 14 and 17 years depending on the timing of the election. That would be almost on a par with the Thatcher-Major years and longer than the Blairites. Is this really likely? No.
Either bet on the apparent improbability of a Labour victory or some other make-up for other parties. But NOT on a Conservative majority.
The Tories had been polling in the 40s earlier in 2016 and were routinely polling 36-38 in the weeks prior to May's election. So getting a bounce back into the 40s was not a mammoth task.
I think the Tories under Boris are more likely to poll above 40% than under 30% at the general election, probably high 30s like Cameron's majority-winning 2015 election.0 -
As a millennial I feel more bitter towards Gen X than Boomers. Some of the latter, like my parents, experienced rationing as children. Gen X have had a decade of ultra low interest rates to prop up house prices. But no generation is to blame really, it’s the stupid politicians who are at fault.0
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Maybe. How much would it cost to replace the average HUFYD?Peter_the_Punter said:
Would be too expensive, wouldn't it?Recidivist said:
Leaving the politics aside, it's an interesting experiment to see if a professional political party putting a programme forward on a businesslike basis might be an alternative to activists. I don't like the idea much myself, but maybe it could work?dixiedean said:More anecdata to add to the theory that the BP isn't going to win a Westminster election any time soon. They don't have any kind of local organisation, and don't seem too keen on doing the hard yards of creating one.
Peterborough was their big chance. They missed, then threw a tantrum, and a string of unfounded allegations of cheating.
B+R ought to have been a chance too. With a convicted criminal as the only other leaver. But they appear to be headed for third.0 -
Excellent thread.....however, not necessarily everything is the same....
https://twitter.com/maps_election/status/1155227017295663106?s=210 -
Have you read this thread?Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango. We can't have a deal if the EU won't negotiate a good deal and that means no backstop.Stark_Dawning said:
Dave enabled the referendum so was entitled to make his case. Boris is ramming through No Deal, which only cranks and eccentrics on the fringe have dabbled in.Philip_Thompson said:
Now? We've got government funded propaganda for as long as I can remember, including a puff piece for Remain pre-referendum.FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
The choice is the EU's to make. If they drop the backstop demands there is no reason we can't have a deal. If they don't, then so be it we have no choice but to proceed without one.
https://twitter.com/DLidington/status/11551494917644369940 -
Not the people who elected them?tlg86 said:But no generation is to blame really, it’s the stupid politicians who are at fault.
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No. The politicians are supposed to be the grown ups. I was struck by how much more grown up the likes of Geoffrey Howe appeared in that Thatcher documentary than the current politicians. Brexit may be consuming most of the political bandwidth at the moment, but one thing all our politicians seem to have in common is that they find it very easy to spend other people’s money.CarlottaVance said:
Not the people who elected them?tlg86 said:But no generation is to blame really, it’s the stupid politicians who are at fault.
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I hadn't, I have now. Changes nothing.williamglenn said:
Have you read this thread?Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango. We can't have a deal if the EU won't negotiate a good deal and that means no backstop.Stark_Dawning said:
Dave enabled the referendum so was entitled to make his case. Boris is ramming through No Deal, which only cranks and eccentrics on the fringe have dabbled in.Philip_Thompson said:
Now? We've got government funded propaganda for as long as I can remember, including a puff piece for Remain pre-referendum.FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
The choice is the EU's to make. If they drop the backstop demands there is no reason we can't have a deal. If they don't, then so be it we have no choice but to proceed without one.
https://twitter.com/DLidington/status/1155149491764436994
The backstop is a democratic abomination. As is somewhat acknowledged in the thread. For a bunch of Remainers like Lidington, May and Robbins seeking to maintain the benefits of the EU the backstop may appear like a success. But it isn't.
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/11544501222074204170 -
No, there will still be the choice we have discussed previously, which I think is the one Boris will take.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango. We can't have a deal if the EU won't negotiate a good deal and that means no backstop.Stark_Dawning said:
Dave enabled the referendum so was entitled to make his case. Boris is ramming through No Deal, which only cranks and eccentrics on the fringe have dabbled in.Philip_Thompson said:
Now? We've got government funded propaganda for as long as I can remember, including a puff piece for Remain pre-referendum.FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
The choice is the EU's to make. If they drop the backstop demands there is no reason we can't have a deal. If they don't, then so be it we have no choice but to proceed without one.
Vastly lengthen the transition period. This will kick the backstop into the long grass. We can then leave on halloween as planned.
This will work because it provides political cover for all the different groups' objections. Face-saving, if you like, but saving face is often necessary for compromise. For the ERG, DUP, Ireland and the EU, even for Remainers.
We exit on halloween; nothing much changes; Boris is hailed as the greatest prime minister since Churchill and can get on with implementing Jeremy Corbyn's 2017 manifesto.
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How would that get around the problem of being subject to the next budget without having had a say? It could easily be portrayed as giving the EU a blank cheque.DecrepitJohnL said:Vastly lengthen the transition period. This will kick the backstop into the long grass. We can then leave on halloween as planned.
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There were definitely adverts on bus stops in London saying "Prepare your business for leaving the EU on March 29th".another_richard said:
Are billboards still in use ?dixiedean said:
Didn't we see a string of billboards proclaiming "The UK will Leave the EU on March 29th?"FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
I can't remember the last time I saw one.
Perhaps there's a few where politicians can be filmed standing in front of one.0 -
Anecdata department - a fellow-councillor and I went out for a couple of hours on doorsteps this morning, mainly to work towards fulfilling a promise to stay in touch and ask about local issues if we won.
But we mostly also asked people how they'd vote in a GE. Labour was marginally up on the local elections, but by far the most frequent reply was "I honestly have no idea". Some may have been shy of telling us, but most seemed entirely frank. I doubt if anyone can rely on polls at the moment.0 -
That's not a bad suggestion and is what I have previously suggested here and is basically what Boris's GATT 24 suggestion is about [Gatt 24 would basically be an upto-a-decade transition].DecrepitJohnL said:
No, there will still be the choice we have discussed previously, which I think is the one Boris will take.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango. We can't have a deal if the EU won't negotiate a good deal and that means no backstop.Stark_Dawning said:
Dave enabled the referendum so was entitled to make his case. Boris is ramming through No Deal, which only cranks and eccentrics on the fringe have dabbled in.Philip_Thompson said:
Now? We've got government funded propaganda for as long as I can remember, including a puff piece for Remain pre-referendum.FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
The choice is the EU's to make. If they drop the backstop demands there is no reason we can't have a deal. If they don't, then so be it we have no choice but to proceed without one.
Vastly lengthen the transition period. This will kick the backstop into the long grass. We can then leave on halloween as planned.
This will work because it provides political cover for all the different groups' objections. Face-saving, if you like, but saving face is often necessary for compromise. For the ERG, DUP, Ireland and the EU, even for Remainers.
We exit on halloween; nothing much changes; Boris is hailed as the greatest prime minister since Churchill and can get on with implementing Jeremy Corbyn's 2017 manifesto.
However it will take the EU agreeing to that. So far they're setting their nose against it as they are claiming any deal must have the backstop. Its self-defeating nonsense of course, the purpose of the backstop is to prevent a no deal situation in the future so why have a no deal situation now insisting upon it? Whether the EU have dug themselves in too deep to do the right thing is what we wait to see.0 -
We shouldn't be subject to the next budget.williamglenn said:
How would that get around the problem of being subject to the next budget without having had a say? It could easily be portrayed as giving the EU a blank cheque.DecrepitJohnL said:Vastly lengthen the transition period. This will kick the backstop into the long grass. We can then leave on halloween as planned.
If there are fees to pay for the transition we should agree them up front, they can then put those fees towards their budget but the budget will have nothing to do with us.0 -
Chaps: have not read the comments but the phrase
" for aqabaee at last"
in the last line should read "free at last".
I'm assuming people have read that far, of course.0 -
That's a good answer, except who elects the stupid politicians?tlg86 said:As a millennial I feel more bitter towards Gen X than Boomers. Some of the latter, like my parents, experienced rationing as children. Gen X have had a decade of ultra low interest rates to prop up house prices. But no generation is to blame really, it’s the stupid politicians who are at fault.
A massive issue is that many problems are highly complex in nature, and the best solutions are also highly complex. Yet highly complex solutions are really difficult to sell to the public.0 -
The backstop is now a red herring. Within the current deal it is not going away. The current deal is not going to pass thru parliament.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango. We can't have a deal if the EU won't negotiate a good deal and that means no backstop.Stark_Dawning said:
Dave enabled the referendum so was entitled to make his case. Boris is ramming through No Deal, which only cranks and eccentrics on the fringe have dabbled in.Philip_Thompson said:
Now? We've got government funded propaganda for as long as I can remember, including a puff piece for Remain pre-referendum.FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
The choice is the EU's to make. If they drop the backstop demands there is no reason we can't have a deal. If they don't, then so be it we have no choice but to proceed without one.
The choice remains with the UK. If we want to Brexit quickly we can probably negotiate a standstill open ended transition that would give time to negotiate a FTA. There would be less than 10 tory rebels on the remain side, it would be up to the ERG wing to block it, if they want to stop Brexit again.
Otherwise we can gamble with no deal. It may not pass thru parliament. It may result in an election the leave parties lose. It may result in disaster. It will probably make the negotiations about our future relationship far less favourable to the UK as it will require ratification at state level with 27 countries asking for their pet issues addressed.
The choice is ours.0 -
Thanks! That makes a lot more sense.Cyclefree said:Chaps: have not read the comments but the phrase
" for aqabaee at last"
in the last line should read "free at last".
I'm assuming people have read that far, of course.0 -
Sounds like an entertaining F1 race.
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Brussels knows he is serious. What they also know is the House of Commons will block him and he has no majority.dixiedean said:
Didn't we see a string of billboards proclaiming "The UK will Leave the EU on March 29th?"FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
That is his conundrum.0 -
Seems entirely appropriate, the only inappropriate thing is that surely Gove won't be working seven days a week between now and the end of October, that seems rather unhealthy!williamglenn said:
One question I've just thought of is I wonder whether a mooted No Confidence vote in September will be affected by the polls in August and September? If Boris builds on his double-digit lead in YouGov yesterday and that is reflected across the pollsters then will the opposition seriously unite to trigger a VONC with Boris's No Deal Tories 10 or more points in the lead?
I imagine a VONC will be easier to stomache by those involved if the Tories are behind in the polls?0 -
Tbh I just assumed it was yet another clever operatic reference I didn't get, never having been to Glyndebourne, let alone Eton.Cyclefree said:Chaps: have not read the comments but the phrase
" for aqabaee at last"
in the last line should read "free at last".
I'm assuming people have read that far, of course.0 -
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No, the assumption until now is that the Commons will block him. The assumption was also that Tory MPs in the Commons would block him from the final 2 and he topped the nominations instead.rottenborough said:
Brussels knows he is serious. What they also know is the House of Commons will block him and he has no majority.dixiedean said:
Didn't we see a string of billboards proclaiming "The UK will Leave the EU on March 29th?"FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
That is his conundrum.
That the Commons will stop him isn't certain and is looking less certain with not-so-secret Brexiteer Corbyn as LOTO and a very diverse rainbow of opposition to Boris that is supposed to unite - and presumably must both agree to install Corbyn to stop Boris and must agree to trigger an election which will see dozens of those involved lose their seats.
Any Tories who VONC Boris will lose their seats doing so. Most Tiggers will lose their seats. And if the Tories do have a double-digit lead in the polls then many Labour MPs could do so too.0 -
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7292845/Attorney-General-believes-Boris-Johnson-UK-EU-loses-no-confidence-vote.htmlrottenborough said:
Brussels knows he is serious. What they also know is the House of Commons will block him and he has no majority.dixiedean said:
Didn't we see a string of billboards proclaiming "The UK will Leave the EU on March 29th?"FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
That is his conundrum.0 -
We don’t elect the MPC. Perhaps we should.JosiasJessop said:
That's a good answer, except who elects the stupid politicians?tlg86 said:As a millennial I feel more bitter towards Gen X than Boomers. Some of the latter, like my parents, experienced rationing as children. Gen X have had a decade of ultra low interest rates to prop up house prices. But no generation is to blame really, it’s the stupid politicians who are at fault.
A massive issue is that many problems are highly complex in nature, and the best solutions are also highly complex. Yet highly complex solutions are really difficult to sell to the public.0 -
To what purpose. There is no point in reporting back on something daily unless one is talking about actual warfare.williamglenn said:0 -
Entirely correct. Parliament itself voted to enact Article 50, Parliament itself instructed there be an extension and Parliament itself endorsed the October 31st end date.Floater said:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7292845/Attorney-General-believes-Boris-Johnson-UK-EU-loses-no-confidence-vote.htmlrottenborough said:
Brussels knows he is serious. What they also know is the House of Commons will block him and he has no majority.dixiedean said:
Didn't we see a string of billboards proclaiming "The UK will Leave the EU on March 29th?"FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
That is his conundrum.
If Parliament doesn't pass anything through the correct channels to extend again then when we leave on October 31st that will be the will of Parliament.
Simply triggering an election or bringing down Boris is insufficient to change the law of the land which is that we leave on October 31st.0 -
Identify problems, identify solutions, implement solutions.OldKingCole said:
To what purpose. There is no point in reporting back on something daily unless one is talking about actual warfare.williamglenn said:
If there are no problems to identify then we're ready to leave.0 -
Just because Johnson has abandoned his family does he expect everyone who works for him to do the same? What an arse.williamglenn said:0 -
So we'll be ready once Ireland is reunified and our economy has been restructured to avoid dependencies on the rest of Europe. Can it be done in 90 days?Philip_Thompson said:
Identify problems, identify solutions, implement solutions.OldKingCole said:
To what purpose. There is no point in reporting back on something daily unless one is talking about actual warfare.williamglenn said:
If there are no problems to identify then we're ready to leave.0 -
It's all spin and kidology. Those foolish gnomes in Brussels and Bonn will never know though will they?OldKingCole said:
To what purpose. There is no point in reporting back on something daily unless one is talking about actual warfare.williamglenn said:0 -
As an ardent remainer I was initially annoyed by the backstop because it was such a good deal. I'd been arguing that we couldn't expect preferential treatment from the EU. And there they go and give us a really really good leaving package. How do you argue for rejoining when you have so many of the benefits for free?Philip_Thompson said:
I hadn't, I have now. Changes nothing.williamglenn said:
Have you read this thread?Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango. We can't have a deal if the EU won't negotiate a good deal and that means no backstop.Stark_Dawning said:
Dave enabled the referendum so was entitled to make his case. Boris is ramming through No Deal, which only cranks and eccentrics on the fringe have dabbled in.Philip_Thompson said:
Now? We've got government funded propaganda for as long as I can remember, including a puff piece for Remain pre-referendum.FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
The choice is the EU's to make. If they drop the backstop demands there is no reason we can't have a deal. If they don't, then so be it we have no choice but to proceed without one.
https://twitter.com/DLidington/status/1155149491764436994
The backstop is a democratic abomination. As is somewhat acknowledged in the thread. For a bunch of Remainers like Lidington, May and Robbins seeking to maintain the benefits of the EU the backstop may appear like a success. But it isn't.
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/11544501222074204170 -
1
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If you're in a meeting, you're probably not actually any implementation.Philip_Thompson said:
Identify problems, identify solutions, implement solutions.OldKingCole said:
To what purpose. There is no point in reporting back on something daily unless one is talking about actual warfare.williamglenn said:
If there are no problems to identify then we're ready to leave.0 -
"What is it with PMs appointing plainly unsuitable Foreign Secretaries?"
Don't know about the other ones, but Raab was clearly appointed solely to demonstrate that Boris made a better Foreign Secretary than at least someone.(I imagine he considered appointing Priti, but that would have been too obvious). Classic "B players hire C players".0 -
And the UK abstained why?Floater said:0 -
All he is saying is what everyone had assumed to be the case, that to block no deal parliament subsequent to a VoNC it either needs a temporary GONU or to schedule a GE to be done in time for a new govt (which would again likely be hung and therefore still need a GONU or at least a difficult coalition).Philip_Thompson said:
Entirely correct. Parliament itself voted to enact Article 50, Parliament itself instructed there be an extension and Parliament itself endorsed the October 31st end date.Floater said:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7292845/Attorney-General-believes-Boris-Johnson-UK-EU-loses-no-confidence-vote.htmlrottenborough said:
Brussels knows he is serious. What they also know is the House of Commons will block him and he has no majority.dixiedean said:
Didn't we see a string of billboards proclaiming "The UK will Leave the EU on March 29th?"FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
That is his conundrum.
If Parliament doesn't pass anything through the correct channels to extend again then when we leave on October 31st that will be the will of Parliament.
Simply triggering an election or bringing down Boris is insufficient to change the law of the land which is that we leave on October 31st.
His more interesting advice was that May could not legally refuse parliaments expressed wish to extend Brexit back in March. No-one seems to talk about that but presumably it would still stand for our current PM if parliament manages to pass similar to Cooper-Letwin again.0 -
A wise precaution, it seems.JBriskinindyref2 said:#F1
Looks quite wet at Hockenheim.
I've hedged out of my Hamilton bet by backing Max at half stakes0 -
One of the top pollsters as you well know.justin124 said:
But then it is Yougov.kle4 said:
Now that's an epic tease.williamglenn said:0 -
Prof Roger Awan-Scully
@roger_scully
·
5h
A new Welsh Political Barometer poll by @YouGov
will be published tomorrow by @ITVWales
The results go well beyond ‘gosh’ territory, or even ‘blimey’: by some way the most dramatic poll I have ever analysed.
And in some respects a genuinely historic poll for Welsh politics.0 -
Bad day for Mercedes !0
-
Labour in third would be funnymarke09 said:Prof Roger Awan-Scully
@roger_scully
·
5h
A new Welsh Political Barometer poll by @YouGov
will be published tomorrow by @ITVWales
The results go well beyond ‘gosh’ territory, or even ‘blimey’: by some way the most dramatic poll I have ever analysed.
And in some respects a genuinely historic poll for Welsh politics.0 -
Following a VoNC, is it not likely that the Queen will feel obliged to ask JC to have a go at forming an administration?...Floater said:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7292845/Attorney-General-believes-Boris-Johnson-UK-EU-loses-no-confidence-vote.htmlrottenborough said:
Brussels knows he is serious. What they also know is the House of Commons will block him and he has no majority.dixiedean said:
Didn't we see a string of billboards proclaiming "The UK will Leave the EU on March 29th?"FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
That is his conundrum.
And could Corbyn not ask the EU for an extension (or even revoke A50) before he is VoNC'ed?
Genuine questions - I don't know.
(As an aside, is there a less user-friendly website than www.dailymail.co.uk? All those pop-up ads make it an absulte nightmare to actually read an article.)0 -
Interesting assessment by Cyclefree.
I think after seeing a few of these 'changeovers' in my life time the novelty has worn off. In fact when Gordon Brown took office the novelty had worn off and I was a sole voice criticising him from the off with his vacuous promises. Boris Johnson is just the same as his predecessors in that nothing is substantially different it is just a change of personnel.
The Brexit supporting media is doing their stuff, I can see them turning off all coverage of Farage in a GE to assist Boris and the Tories so they get what they want...
0 -
Plaid Cymru 50%?Pulpstar said:
Labour in third would be funnymarke09 said:Prof Roger Awan-Scully
@roger_scully
·
5h
A new Welsh Political Barometer poll by @YouGov
will be published tomorrow by @ITVWales
The results go well beyond ‘gosh’ territory, or even ‘blimey’: by some way the most dramatic poll I have ever analysed.
And in some respects a genuinely historic poll for Welsh politics.0 -
Reminds me of the talking heads song:rottenborough said:Cue the metaphors kids!
https://twitter.com/Sue_Charles/status/1155253400398979072
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQiOA7euaYA0 -
Does anyone still think that F1 is boring?0
-
-
RE The Welsh poll -this was the last one done in May 2019
Westminster:
Labour: 25% (-8)
Brexit Party: 23% (+19)
Conservative: 17% (-9)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 12% (+5)
Greens: 5% (+3)
Change UK: 2% (-7)
UKIP: 1% (-2)
Others: 2% (+1)
Assembly
Labour: 25% (-6)
Plaid Cymru: 24% (no change)
Conservatives: 17% (-6)
Brexit Party: 17% (+17)
Liberal Democrats: 9% (+3)
Greens: 5% (+4)
Change UK: 1% (-3)
UKIP: 1% (-6)
Others: 1% (-4)0 -
The last welsh poll showed a big swing to remain.kle4 said:
Now that's an epic tease.williamglenn said:
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/remain-10-percentage-point-lead-165272620 -
Yes the 90% of races when there is no rain. 90% of the seasons drama will be in the 10% of races with rain. With all their money cant they afford some sprinklers?Sandpit said:Does anyone still think that F1 is boring?
0 -
Provided they do more than just meet in an office (eg see stuff, hear from people) then away days can be valuable as a new perspectiveanother_richard said:
I've never understood these cabinet away days.Theuniondivvie said:'The visits to adoring fans'
I believe Boris is still intending a visit to Glasgow tomorrow avec cabinet.
https://twitter.com/AngryScotland/status/889400054326452224
Do they actually learn anything new by having a meeting in a government office in Glasgow instead of a government office in London ?
And is anyone in the 'real world' impressed by it ?0 -
Watering the track was proposed a few years back iirc.noneoftheabove said:
Yes the 90% of races when there is no rain. 90% of the seasons drama will be in the 10% of races with rain. With all their money cant they afford some sprinklers?Sandpit said:Does anyone still think that F1 is boring?
1 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Mr. Above, there was no rain at Austria or the UK. Both were fantastic.
Feeling a bit off-colour so the post-race ramble might be rather curtailed. Great race today.0 -
The hunch is correct. The Brexit supporting media who instigated the ousting of May by giving coverage to the Brexit party in the run up to the European elections are trying to sell us their creation. I think they misjudge people as it is easy to spot the flaws in Boris Johnson. Some people like him at the moment despite his personal inability to execute the role as PM. However, overtime people who currently support him will turn on him and these flaws will be amplified and will metamorphose into objections.AndyJS said:0 -
It's all coming up Brisky this weekend. Ms Brisk got a bit grumpy that I hedged because we're both Team Hamilton ; but everyone likes an insurance winnarSandpit said:Does anyone still think that F1 is boring?
1 -
Do you also know the lottery numbers for next week?The_Taxman said:
The hunch is correct. The Brexit supporting media who instigated the ousting of May by giving coverage to the Brexit party in the run up to the European elections are trying to sell us their creation. I think they misjudge people as it is easy to spot the flaws in Boris Johnson. Some people like him at the moment despite his personal inability to execute the role as PM. However, overtime people who currently support him will turn on him and these flaws will be amplified and will metamorphose into objections.AndyJS said: 1 -
And who rewards those politicians? We do.tlg86 said:As a millennial I feel more bitter towards Gen X than Boomers. Some of the latter, like my parents, experienced rationing as children. Gen X have had a decade of ultra low interest rates to prop up house prices. But no generation is to blame really, it’s the stupid politicians who are at fault.
0 -
Really? What an idealistic view.Charles said:
Provided they do more than just meet in an office (eg see stuff, hear from people) then away days can be valuable as a new perspectiveanother_richard said:
I've never understood these cabinet away days.Theuniondivvie said:'The visits to adoring fans'
I believe Boris is still intending a visit to Glasgow tomorrow avec cabinet.
https://twitter.com/AngryScotland/status/889400054326452224
Do they actually learn anything new by having a meeting in a government office in Glasgow instead of a government office in London ?
And is anyone in the 'real world' impressed by it ?
And rather implicitly suggests all leaders are total crap since they are unable to consider alternative perspectives otherwise and rarely do such things.0 -
Does rather show up those salivating at Johnsons feet for mere words and unexceptional polling.CarlottaVance said:Excellent thread.....however, not necessarily everything is the same....
https://twitter.com/maps_election/status/1155227017295663106?s=210 -
I expect that the Conservatives' numbers will rise into the mid thirties in coming weeks.Philip_Thompson said:
Apples and oranges.Mysticrose said:Boris' first polls are awful compared to Theresa May's. He's possibly scraping 30%. Hers were 40%.
I think we need to take a step back and look at all this another way, bracketing for a moment that pesky sideshow called Brexit.
The Conservatives have held power for 9 years. If they do win the next General Election outright they will have been in power in one form or other for between 14 and 17 years depending on the timing of the election. That would be almost on a par with the Thatcher-Major years and longer than the Blairites. Is this really likely? No.
Either bet on the apparent improbability of a Labour victory or some other make-up for other parties. But NOT on a Conservative majority.
The Tories had been polling in the 40s earlier in 2016 and were routinely polling 36-38 in the weeks prior to May's election. So getting a bounce back into the 40s was not a mammoth task.
I think the Tories under Boris are more likely to poll above 40% than under 30% at the general election, probably high 30s like Cameron's majority-winning 2015 election.1 -
This is coming as no surprise. Only Brexiteers and Corbyn believes in the Leave shit. The ground has shifted.Recidivist said:
The last welsh poll showed a big swing to remain.kle4 said:
Now that's an epic tease.williamglenn said:
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/remain-10-percentage-point-lead-16527262
0 -
I think a UK poll would have similar figures. That's why Brexiteers want to finish off the job quickly. The lies have come back home.surbiton19 said:
This is coming as no surprise. Only Brexiteers and Corbyn believes in the Leave shit. The ground has shifted.Recidivist said:
The last welsh poll showed a big swing to remain.kle4 said:
Now that's an epic tease.williamglenn said:
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/remain-10-percentage-point-lead-16527262
0 -
Certainly true. The argument has regressed if possible to old points, a simple win or lose point for both sides to posture over.noneoftheabove said:
The backstop is now a red herring.Philip_Thompson said:
It takes two to tango. We can't have a deal if the EU won't negotiate a good deal and that means no backstop.Stark_Dawning said:
Dave enabled the referendum so was entitled to make his case. Boris is ramming through No Deal, which only cranks and eccentrics on the fringe have dabbled in.Philip_Thompson said:
Now? We've got government funded propaganda for as long as I can remember, including a puff piece for Remain pre-referendum.FrancisUrquhart said:Forget the bus, we are now going to get government funded propaganda.
The new Prime Minister is planning to show Brussels he is serious about taking Britain out of the bloc without a deal by ramping up preparations.
The information push will see an everything-you-need-to-know leaflet sent to 27 million households and the broadcast of TV ads as part of a campaign which is expected to cost £10 million.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html
The choice is the EU's to make. If they drop the backstop demands there is no reason we can't have a deal. If they don't, then so be it we have no choice but to proceed without one.0
