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Any more polls tonight? Exciting Saturday night for us losers
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No deal would get them thinking.Omnium said:
Both Labour and the Tories benefit from unthinking voters in huge numbers.StuartDickson said:
Although you’ve framed it humorously, there is a serious question in there. The Labour vote is “sticky” and bloody hard to push down, but equally, it seems just as likely that it’ll be enormously difficult to push it above say 30%. You cannot win FPTP elections on 30%.Omnium said:
We have to wonder as to what Labour need to do to reduce their vote. They've tried everything, but stubbornly 25% or so of people think that they're still worth voting for. I think it has to be doing something nasty to kittens next, or compulsory Abbott maths for all.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I was countering the argument that lib dem and green voters return to labourYorkcity said:
+1 the week the Lib Dems get their new leader, seems a bit low.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Lib Dems up - Green switch to laboursurbiton19 said:
Quite incredible. Almost by magic, Labour sympathisers suddenly switch from LD and Greens just like they did in 2017 GE at the prospect of Tory surge.another_richard said:
A reversion towards the May local elections result.bigjohnowls said:
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 30% (+7)
LAB: 28% (+3)
LDEM: 16% (+1)
BREX: 15% (-7)
GRN: 5% (-3)
Conservatives and Labour are likely to rise together and fall together.
I am treating all polls with caution as this huge change in personal and Boris needs time to stabilise in the polls
I am obviously satisfied with the +10 in Deltapoll for Boris but lets not get carried away
If Labour had gone the other way and tried to bolster their support would the numbers have been equally static?0 -
On another subject, are you offended if someone accidentally calls you English?StuartDickson said:
No deal would get them thinking.Omnium said:
Both Labour and the Tories benefit from unthinking voters in huge numbers.StuartDickson said:
Although you’ve framed it humorously, there is a serious question in there. The Labour vote is “sticky” and bloody hard to push down, but equally, it seems just as likely that it’ll be enormously difficult to push it above say 30%. You cannot win FPTP elections on 30%.Omnium said:
We have to wonder as to what Labour need to do to reduce their vote. They've tried everything, but stubbornly 25% or so of people think that they're still worth voting for. I think it has to be doing something nasty to kittens next, or compulsory Abbott maths for all.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I was countering the argument that lib dem and green voters return to labourYorkcity said:
+1 the week the Lib Dems get their new leader, seems a bit low.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Lib Dems up - Green switch to laboursurbiton19 said:
Quite incredible. Almost by magic, Labour sympathisers suddenly switch from LD and Greens just like they did in 2017 GE at the prospect of Tory surge.another_richard said:
A reversion towards the May local elections result.bigjohnowls said:
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 30% (+7)
LAB: 28% (+3)
LDEM: 16% (+1)
BREX: 15% (-7)
GRN: 5% (-3)
Conservatives and Labour are likely to rise together and fall together.
I am treating all polls with caution as this huge change in personal and Boris needs time to stabilise in the polls
I am obviously satisfied with the +10 in Deltapoll for Boris but lets not get carried away
If Labour had gone the other way and tried to bolster their support would the numbers have been equally static?0 -
Jeremy Corbyn is planning to almost double the level of tax on thousands of companies across Britain, one of the country's most prominent law firms has warned.
In a briefing for clients, Herbert Smith Freehills said Labour's economic blueprint includes the equivalent of a corporation tax rate of up to 32 per cent, compared to the 17 per cent rate due to come into force next year.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/27/jeremy-corbyn-planning-almost-double-tax-burden-british-businesses/amp/0 -
I agree with this to an extent. Johnson will inspire a level of anti-Tory tactical voting that no other Tory leader could. All the polls tonight show the potential for it. The problem, though, is that head to head Corbyn is way behind Johnson, so there is a strong anti-Labour vote out there, too, because of that.NickPalmer said:
I'm always suspicious of polls which say "If this factor was different, what would you do then?" because they nudge the respondent into varying the answer, without knowing what the alternative would actually be. But that 5 point difference in the Lab/LD vote is where an election will be fought, with some of it swinging tactically.Scott_P said:
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Quick summary:
On that Opinium (C30%, L28, LD16, BXP15)
Flavible: Con 289, Lab 246, LD 41, SNP 51, BXP 1
Baxter: Con 301, Lab 253, LD 37, SNP 37, BXP 1
On that Deltapoll/MOS (30, 25, 18, 14):
Flavible: Con 309, Lab 216, LD 50, SNP 51, BXP 1
Baxter: Con 322, Lab 224, LD 46, SNP 36, BXP 1
On that YouGov (31, 21, 20, 13):
Flavible: Con 335, Lab 181, LD 60, SNP 49, BXP 2(!)
Baxter: Con 358, Lab 183, LD 51, SNP 35, BXP 0
https://flavible.com
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk0 -
For avoidance of doubt, I did check: none of these figures prevent LD taking Brecon.0
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I wonder if Jezza will be demanding a General Election tomorrow?0
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It is a sign of how far the Tories have fallen that you’d be cockahoop with 32%.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, I don't often agree with HYUFD but he got that virtually spot on.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Congratulations HYUFD.HYUFD said:
Tories on 30% for the first time in months not disappointing at allwilliamglenn said:The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
You called Boris correctly and the 31% is just 1% below your prediction
We may not agree on everything but credit where it is due
It will amaze me if 32% isn't hit within the next week or two too.
My party routinely get c40%, and we’re told that’s rubbish.0 -
I have been making this point for the last few daysnico67 said:A bounce for Bozo .
It would have been a big surprise if this didn’t happen given the non stop coverage . Indeed it’s like he’s got a free ride for the next month with his policy announcements.
Boris will be on the media everyday through August with trips to EU leaders and almost certainly the US, as well as his domestic agenda. I expect him to announce a £10 living wage soon as he was a living wage supporter in London
If I was a labour mp I would be straining every sinew to pass a deal and exit on the 31st Oct0 -
What does Labour look like without Corbyn anyway?NickPalmer said:
I'm always suspicious of polls which say "If this factor was different, what would you do then?" because they nudge the respondent into varying the answer, without knowing what the alternative would actually be. But that 5 point difference in the Lab/LD vote is where an election will be fought, with some of it swinging tactically.Scott_P said:
They've lost the cadre of middle-rankers that set the tone.0 -
Early days yet for Boris but he's hit the ground running and thus far his team have got the PR and substance just right. Suggestions that he's lazy, unserious and has no plan seem a bit off the mark just now. Early days though.
At least he's had a significant bounce unlike Swinson. Her antics over a VONC looked childish and opportunistic and for once Corbyn called his response correctly.0 -
I have never said it is rubbish and I expect that by the next General Election the Tories will be polling closer to 40% than 30%.StuartDickson said:
It is a sign of how far the Tories have fallen that you’d be cockahoop with 32%.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, I don't often agree with HYUFD but he got that virtually spot on.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Congratulations HYUFD.HYUFD said:
Tories on 30% for the first time in months not disappointing at allwilliamglenn said:The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
You called Boris correctly and the 31% is just 1% below your prediction
We may not agree on everything but credit where it is due
It will amaze me if 32% isn't hit within the next week or two too.
My party routinely get c40%, and we’re told that’s rubbish.
31% is just the beginning. It is not good enough.0 -
Even if you Monte Carlo within an error budget of 2 per cent ?viewcode said:For avoidance of doubt, I did check: none of these figures prevent LD taking Brecon.
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Who's your party?StuartDickson said:
It is a sign of how far the Tories have fallen that you’d be cockahoop with 32%.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, I don't often agree with HYUFD but he got that virtually spot on.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Congratulations HYUFD.HYUFD said:
Tories on 30% for the first time in months not disappointing at allwilliamglenn said:The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
You called Boris correctly and the 31% is just 1% below your prediction
We may not agree on everything but credit where it is due
It will amaze me if 32% isn't hit within the next week or two too.
My party routinely get c40%, and we’re told that’s rubbish.0 -
All he did was cut and paste a published opinion poll into PB. His thesis was that Bozo would get the bigger bounce than Hunt - we shall never know.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, I don't often agree with HYUFD but he got that virtually spot on.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Congratulations HYUFD.HYUFD said:
Tories on 30% for the first time in months not disappointing at allwilliamglenn said:The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
You called Boris correctly and the 31% is just 1% below your prediction
We may not agree on everything but credit where it is due
It will amaze me if 32% isn't hit within the next week or two too.
That the new PM would get a bounce wasn’t in doubt (and I posted that he would, multiple times). Brown got a bounce, May got a bounce. The question is how long it lasts, particularly after Bozo starts on the more tricky parts of the job,0 -
Let's be honest, a corp. tax rate of 32% isn't going to keep any Labour or Labour-leaning voters up at night. Brazil has a corp. tax rate of 34%. India 35%.FrancisUrquhart said:Jeremy Corbyn is planning to almost double the level of tax on thousands of companies across Britain, one of the country's most prominent law firms has warned.
In a briefing for clients, Herbert Smith Freehills said Labour's economic blueprint includes the equivalent of a corporation tax rate of up to 32 per cent, compared to the 17 per cent rate due to come into force next year.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/27/jeremy-corbyn-planning-almost-double-tax-burden-british-businesses/amp/0 -
Comres at 10.30noisywinter said:Any more polls tonight? Exciting Saturday night for us losers
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Someone earlier today on PB predicted Youguv a 12 point lead for the Tories.Gallowgate said:
I agreed not far off.
All the other polls are very different.
I know which poll the BBC will pick tomorrow.1 -
Do you expect Boris to bad as much of a disaster on the campaign as May?SouthamObserver said:0 -
O/T
"A female entertainer who works on the ship said: 'There was a person dressed as a clown and this upset the other passengers."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7292241/Violence-high-seas-clown-sparks-mass-brawl-aboard-P-O-cruise-liner-Britannia.html0 -
The Boris bounce is utterly expected, but it is a decent one. I expect we haven’t seen the entirety of it yet, either.
The traffic, though, is all from Brexit to Boris. Labour still appear to be breathing down Tory necks, and the Lib Dem momentum continues.
Remain parties outpoll Brexit ones, and YouGov aside (big caveat), the Tories would lose the government benches on each of the polls tonight.
This is a decent start by Boris but it is equivalent to a boundary in the first over - no predictor of outcome.0 -
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Grrr.YBarddCwsc said:
Even if you Monte Carlo within an error budget of 2 per cent ?viewcode said:For avoidance of doubt, I did check: none of these figures prevent LD taking Brecon.
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Scottish National PartyOmnium said:
Who's your party?StuartDickson said:
It is a sign of how far the Tories have fallen that you’d be cockahoop with 32%.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, I don't often agree with HYUFD but he got that virtually spot on.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Congratulations HYUFD.HYUFD said:
Tories on 30% for the first time in months not disappointing at allwilliamglenn said:The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
You called Boris correctly and the 31% is just 1% below your prediction
We may not agree on everything but credit where it is due
It will amaze me if 32% isn't hit within the next week or two too.
My party routinely get c40%, and we’re told that’s rubbish.0 -
It was the epoch of disbelief, it was the time of tartan trews...RobD said:0 -
***** Betting Post *****
Considering that most bookies make it an evens chance or thereabouts that there will be a GE this calendar year, it's surprising that thus far there are no betting markets, nor spead-betting prices, on the number of seats each of the three major parties are likely to win.
Deducting the current number of SNP seats, those held by the N.I. parties, Plaid, etc, the combined haul of Tory, Labour and LiBDem seats appears likely to total approx 580 seats.
My first stab at how these might shake out, with a 20 seat spread of seats looks something like this to me:
Tory ....... 260 - 280
Labour .... 220 - 240
LibDem ..... 70 - 90
What kind of split of seats between the parties do other PBers anticipate?
One outcome does look very unlikely and that's an overall majority for any party. That's where the betting angle comes into play with those nice folf at Ladbrokes (and presumably Corals also) offering seemingly generous "boosted" odds of 0.7/1 on there being no overall majority ... that looks like value to me but DYOR.0 -
I would suggest the key factor is brexit on the 31st Octoberpeter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Considering that most bookies make it an evens chance or thereabouts that there will be a GE this calendar year, it's surprising that thus far there are no betting markets, nor spead-betting prices, on the number of seats each of the three major parties are likely to win.
Deducting the current number of SNP seats, those held by the N.I. parties, Plaid, etc, the combined haul of Tory, Labour and LiBDem seats appears likely to total approx 580 seats.
My first stab at how these might shake out, with a 20 seat spread of seats looks something like this to me:
Tory ....... 260 - 280
Labour .... 220 - 240
LibDem ..... 70 - 90
What kind of split of seats between the parties do other PBers anticipate?
One outcome does look very unlikely and that's an overall majority for any party. That's where the betting angle comes into play with those nice folf at Ladbrokes (and presumably Corals also) offering seemingly generous "boosted" odds of 0.7/1 on there being no overall majority ... that looks like value to me but DYOR.
If Boris achieves a deal he would deserve to reap the reward, and that is from one of his many doubters0 -
0
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Proportionately bigger......RobD said:0 -
Surely that depends on whether Brexit is a disaster or not?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the key factor is brexit on the 31st Octoberpeter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Considering that most bookies make it an evens chance or thereabouts that there will be a GE this calendar year, it's surprising that thus far there are no betting markets, nor spead-betting prices, on the number of seats each of the three major parties are likely to win.
Deducting the current number of SNP seats, those held by the N.I. parties, Plaid, etc, the combined haul of Tory, Labour and LiBDem seats appears likely to total approx 580 seats.
My first stab at how these might shake out, with a 20 seat spread of seats looks something like this to me:
Tory ....... 260 - 280
Labour .... 220 - 240
LibDem ..... 70 - 90
What kind of split of seats between the parties do other PBers anticipate?
One outcome does look very unlikely and that's an overall majority for any party. That's where the betting angle comes into play with those nice folf at Ladbrokes (and presumably Corals also) offering seemingly generous "boosted" odds of 0.7/1 on there being no overall majority ... that looks like value to me but DYOR.
If Boris achieves a deal he would deserve to reap the reward, and that is from one of his many doubters-1 -
Who?StuartDickson said:
Scottish National PartyOmnium said:
Who's your party?StuartDickson said:
It is a sign of how far the Tories have fallen that you’d be cockahoop with 32%.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, I don't often agree with HYUFD but he got that virtually spot on.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Congratulations HYUFD.HYUFD said:
Tories on 30% for the first time in months not disappointing at allwilliamglenn said:The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
You called Boris correctly and the 31% is just 1% below your prediction
We may not agree on everything but credit where it is due
It will amaze me if 32% isn't hit within the next week or two too.
My party routinely get c40%, and we’re told that’s rubbish.0 -
May got 42% in the election. What changed was the Labour vote. That’s the key to all this. Can Labour match Johnson’s claw back of BXP voters? What there is no evidence of so far is the Tories taking 2017 Labour votes. For Johnson to have any degree of confidence of victory that’s what he needs. It’s clearly what he’s after.noisywinter said:
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Is anyone going to be really brave and suggest that the LibDems' haul of GE seats could run well into 3 figures? At what share of the popular vote, do seats start to really tumble their way?peter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Considering that most bookies make it an evens chance or thereabouts that there will be a GE this calendar year, it's surprising that thus far there are no betting markets, nor spead-betting prices, on the number of seats each of the three major parties are likely to win.
Deducting the current number of SNP seats, those held by the N.I. parties, Plaid, etc, the combined haul of Tory, Labour and LiBDem seats appears likely to total approx 580 seats.
My first stab at how these might shake out, with a 20 seat spread of seats looks something like this to me:
Tory ....... 260 - 280
Labour .... 220 - 240
LibDem ..... 70 - 90
What kind of split of seats between the parties do other PBers anticipate?
One outcome does look very unlikely and that's an overall majority for any party. That's where the betting angle comes into play with those nice folf at Ladbrokes (and presumably Corals also) offering seemingly generous "boosted" odds of 0.7/1 on there being no overall majority ... that looks like value to me but DYOR.0 -
The problem is that Remain have painted no-deal Brexit in such apocalyptic terms (no planes flying, medicines running out, food riots) that the likely outcome (a few bumps, but nothing too serious, followed by years of missed opportunities which economists will squabble over the quantification of) will seem like a “success”.noneoftheabove said:
Surely that depends on whether Brexit is a disaster or not?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the key factor is brexit on the 31st Octoberpeter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Considering that most bookies make it an evens chance or thereabouts that there will be a GE this calendar year, it's surprising that thus far there are no betting markets, nor spead-betting prices, on the number of seats each of the three major parties are likely to win.
Deducting the current number of SNP seats, those held by the N.I. parties, Plaid, etc, the combined haul of Tory, Labour and LiBDem seats appears likely to total approx 580 seats.
My first stab at how these might shake out, with a 20 seat spread of seats looks something like this to me:
Tory ....... 260 - 280
Labour .... 220 - 240
LibDem ..... 70 - 90
What kind of split of seats between the parties do other PBers anticipate?
One outcome does look very unlikely and that's an overall majority for any party. That's where the betting angle comes into play with those nice folf at Ladbrokes (and presumably Corals also) offering seemingly generous "boosted" odds of 0.7/1 on there being no overall majority ... that looks like value to me but DYOR.
If Boris achieves a deal he would deserve to reap the reward, and that is from one of his many doubters0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbC_HNHQ9JYAndyJS said:O/T
"A female entertainer who works on the ship said: 'There was a person dressed as a clown and this upset the other passengers."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7292241/Violence-high-seas-clown-sparks-mass-brawl-aboard-P-O-cruise-liner-Britannia.html0 -
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The outcome of brexit will not be known for several years, maybe not before the GE after the nextnoneoftheabove said:
Surely that depends on whether Brexit is a disaster or not?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the key factor is brexit on the 31st Octoberpeter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Considering that most bookies make it an evens chance or thereabouts that there will be a GE this calendar year, it's surprising that thus far there are no betting markets, nor spead-betting prices, on the number of seats each of the three major parties are likely to win.
Deducting the current number of SNP seats, those held by the N.I. parties, Plaid, etc, the combined haul of Tory, Labour and LiBDem seats appears likely to total approx 580 seats.
My first stab at how these might shake out, with a 20 seat spread of seats looks something like this to me:
Tory ....... 260 - 280
Labour .... 220 - 240
LibDem ..... 70 - 90
What kind of split of seats between the parties do other PBers anticipate?
One outcome does look very unlikely and that's an overall majority for any party. That's where the betting angle comes into play with those nice folf at Ladbrokes (and presumably Corals also) offering seemingly generous "boosted" odds of 0.7/1 on there being no overall majority ... that looks like value to me but DYOR.
If Boris achieves a deal he would deserve to reap the reward, and that is from one of his many doubters
In the short term a deal with the EU will change the narrative totally0 -
Interesting polls tonight with perhaps Comres yet to come. The switch from Brexit Party to the Tories is hardly surprising. Overall they confirm my expectation of polarisation with the combined two party vote unlikely to fall below 65% in a GE. Still a very clear Yougov house effect. LibDems probably somewhat disappointed re-Swinson bounce.0
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Valid point! Although to an extent the addition of the Labour 2017 vote may to some extent have been a consequence of the Tory campaignSouthamObserver said:
May got 42% in the election. What changed was the Labour vote. That’s the key to all this. Can Labour match Johnson’s claw back of BXP voters? What there is no evidence of so far is the Tories taking 2017 Labour votes. For Johnson to have any degree of confidence of victory that’s what he needs. It’s clearly what he’s after.noisywinter said:
Also, Corbyn is less popular than in 2017, and has angered remainers
Also also, warnings of a Corbyn government unless you vote Tory will be more prescient than in 2017, when Labour surprised bigly. I think that could be worth 2 or 3 % to the Tories
Just my tuppence 0 -
Sleazy, broken lib dems on the slide.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Three Boris Bounces out of three!surbiton19 said:https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1155213186548797440
YouGov will give a Tory majority. No change there !0 -
Although, we are just about to enter a three month period of being told by the government and much of the media that No Deal will be no problem at all.CarlottaVance said:
The problem is that Remain have painted no-deal Brexit in such apocalyptic terms (no planes flying, medicines running out, food riots) that the likely outcome (a few bumps, but nothing too serious, followed by years of missed opportunities which economists will squabble over the quantification of) will seem like a “success”.noneoftheabove said:
Surely that depends on whether Brexit is a disaster or not?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the key factor is brexit on the 31st Octoberpeter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Considering that most bookies make it an evens chance or thereabouts that there will be a GE this calendar year, it's surprising that thus far there are no betting markets, nor spead-betting prices, on the number of seats each of the three major parties are likely to win.
Deducting the current number of SNP seats, those held by the N.I. parties, Plaid, etc, the combined haul of Tory, Labour and LiBDem seats appears likely to total approx 580 seats.
My first stab at how these might shake out, with a 20 seat spread of seats looks something like this to me:
Tory ....... 260 - 280
Labour .... 220 - 240
LibDem ..... 70 - 90
What kind of split of seats between the parties do other PBers anticipate?
One outcome does look very unlikely and that's an overall majority for any party. That's where the betting angle comes into play with those nice folf at Ladbrokes (and presumably Corals also) offering seemingly generous "boosted" odds of 0.7/1 on there being no overall majority ... that looks like value to me but DYOR.
If Boris achieves a deal he would deserve to reap the reward, and that is from one of his many doubters
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Your LibDem figure is far too high - 20 - 30 would be much more likely.peter_from_putney said:
Is anyone going to be really brave and suggest that the LibDems' haul of GE seats could run well into 3 figures? At what share of the popular vote, do seats start to really tumble their way?peter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Considering that most bookies make it an evens chance or thereabouts that there will be a GE this calendar year, it's surprising that thus far there are no betting markets, nor spead-betting prices, on the number of seats each of the three major parties are likely to win.
Deducting the current number of SNP seats, those held by the N.I. parties, Plaid, etc, the combined haul of Tory, Labour and LiBDem seats appears likely to total approx 580 seats.
My first stab at how these might shake out, with a 20 seat spread of seats looks something like this to me:
Tory ....... 260 - 280
Labour .... 220 - 240
LibDem ..... 70 - 90
What kind of split of seats between the parties do other PBers anticipate?
One outcome does look very unlikely and that's an overall majority for any party. That's where the betting angle comes into play with those nice folf at Ladbrokes (and presumably Corals also) offering seemingly generous "boosted" odds of 0.7/1 on there being no overall majority ... that looks like value to me but DYOR.0 -
I would set it at:peter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Considering that most bookies make it an evens chance or thereabouts that there will be a GE this calendar year, it's surprising that thus far there are no betting markets, nor spead-betting prices, on the number of seats each of the three major parties are likely to win.
Deducting the current number of SNP seats, those held by the N.I. parties, Plaid, etc, the combined haul of Tory, Labour and LiBDem seats appears likely to total approx 580 seats.
My first stab at how these might shake out, with a 20 seat spread of seats looks something like this to me:
Tory ....... 260 - 280
Labour .... 220 - 240
LibDem ..... 70 - 90
What kind of split of seats between the parties do other PBers anticipate?
One outcome does look very unlikely and that's an overall majority for any party. That's where the betting angle comes into play with those nice folf at Ladbrokes (and presumably Corals also) offering seemingly generous "boosted" odds of 0.7/1 on there being no overall majority ... that looks like value to me but DYOR.
Tory 320-340
Labour 190-210
Lib Dem 40-60
(330, 200, 50 line)
However it all depends upon Halloween. If Boris voluntarily requests an extension then Tory numbers will plummet. If Boris successfully delivers Brexit then Tory numbers will surge.
If there is a VONC and the opposition forces an extension it could go either way depending upon how it goes down . . . I think it could play into Boris's hands, but if Grieve and co put Corbyn into Number 10 expect Lib Dems to crater and it will be like 2017 redux - a binary choice between Tory and Labour.0 -
You lost a few Westminster MPs in 2017StuartDickson said:
It is a sign of how far the Tories have fallen that you’d be cockahoop with 32%.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, I don't often agree with HYUFD but he got that virtually spot on.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Congratulations HYUFD.HYUFD said:
Tories on 30% for the first time in months not disappointing at allwilliamglenn said:The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
You called Boris correctly and the 31% is just 1% below your prediction
We may not agree on everything but credit where it is due
It will amaze me if 32% isn't hit within the next week or two too.
My party routinely get c40%, and we’re told that’s rubbish.0 -
I disagree with that. The long term outcome will never be known as the alternative paths are unknown and remain/leave wont have shared viewpoints on how we would have done in different scenarios.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The outcome of brexit will not be known for several years, maybe not before the GE after the nextnoneoftheabove said:
Surely that depends on whether Brexit is a disaster or not?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the key factor is brexit on the 31st Octoberpeter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Considering that most bookies make it an evens chance or thereabouts that there will be a GE this calendar year, it's surprising that thus far there are no betting markets, nor spead-betting prices, on the number of seats each of the three major parties are likely to win.
Deducting the current number of SNP seats, those held by the N.I. parties, Plaid, etc, the combined haul of Tory, Labour and LiBDem seats appears likely to total approx 580 seats.
My first stab at how these might shake out, with a 20 seat spread of seats looks something like this to me:
Tory ....... 260 - 280
Labour .... 220 - 240
LibDem ..... 70 - 90
What kind of split of seats between the parties do other PBers anticipate?
One outcome does look very unlikely and that's an overall majority for any party. That's where the betting angle comes into play with those nice folf at Ladbrokes (and presumably Corals also) offering seemingly generous "boosted" odds of 0.7/1 on there being no overall majority ... that looks like value to me but DYOR.
If Boris achieves a deal he would deserve to reap the reward, and that is from one of his many doubters
In the short term a deal with the EU will change the narrative totally
The only outcome of Brexit that we will ever know is the short term impact in the first few months and possibly up to a year.0 -
With Swinson urging Corbyn to initiate a Vote of No Confifence against the Gov't, she's clearly going to be identified as Labour's key ally both before and after the GE. In such circumstances she can forget all about any bounce in her favour.justin124 said:Interesting polls tonight with perhaps Comres yet to come. The switch from Brexit Party to the Tories is hardly surprising. Overall they confirm my expectation of polarisation with the combined two party vote unlikely to fall below 65% in a GE. Still a very clear Yougov house effect. LibDems probably somewhat disappointed re-Swinson bounce.
0 -
If Mark Sedwell attempts that he will be the one leavingScott_P said:
He is hugely distrusted by the brexiteers0 -
Corbyn is less popular than in June 2017 - but it is far from clear that he is less popular than Feb/March 2017 when Labour lost Copeland by election to the Tories.noisywinter said:
Valid point! Although to an extent the addition of the Labour 2017 vote may to some extent have been a consequence of the Tory campaignSouthamObserver said:
May got 42% in the election. What changed was the Labour vote. That’s the key to all this. Can Labour match Johnson’s claw back of BXP voters? What there is no evidence of so far is the Tories taking 2017 Labour votes. For Johnson to have any degree of confidence of victory that’s what he needs. It’s clearly what he’s after.noisywinter said:
Also, Corbyn is less popular than in 2017, and has angered remainers
Also also, warnings of a Corbyn government unless you vote Tory will be more prescient than in 2017, when Labour surprised bigly. I think that could be worth 2 or 3 % to the Tories
Just my tuppence0 -
Nominations closed for the Shetland by-election. Ten candidates:
Johan Adamson, Scottish Labour and Co-operative Party
Brydon Goodlad, Scottish Conservative and Unionist
Stuart Martin, UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Debra Nicolson, Scottish Green Party
Ian Scott, Independent
Michael Stout, Independent
Peter Tait, Independent
Ryan Thomson, Independent
Tom Wills, Scottish National Party (SNP)
Beatrice Wishart, Scottish Liberal Democrats
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-491333390 -
And HSF would say that to their clients, wouldn't they?!FrancisUrquhart said:Jeremy Corbyn is planning to almost double the level of tax on thousands of companies across Britain, one of the country's most prominent law firms has warned.
In a briefing for clients, Herbert Smith Freehills said Labour's economic blueprint includes the equivalent of a corporation tax rate of up to 32 per cent, compared to the 17 per cent rate due to come into force next year.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/27/jeremy-corbyn-planning-almost-double-tax-burden-british-businesses/amp/
We're one of them btw
Are you this tedious in real life?TheScreamingEagles said:
Does it? I cannot recall that article being posted on PB.viewcode said:
We do not speak of that article. It is nasty and hurts our insides.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The ones who shout a lot that people against them "will rue the day"PeterMannion said:
Who?StuartDickson said:
Scottish National PartyOmnium said:
Who's your party?StuartDickson said:
It is a sign of how far the Tories have fallen that you’d be cockahoop with 32%.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, I don't often agree with HYUFD but he got that virtually spot on.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Congratulations HYUFD.HYUFD said:
Tories on 30% for the first time in months not disappointing at allwilliamglenn said:The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
You called Boris correctly and the 31% is just 1% below your prediction
We may not agree on everything but credit where it is due
It will amaze me if 32% isn't hit within the next week or two too.
My party routinely get c40%, and we’re told that’s rubbish.
That and the bag of chips on their shoulders are the big tells.0 -
I don't follow that . She might reasonably have expected a bounce as the perceived Anti- Tory alternative - but little sign overall.peter_from_putney said:
With Swinson urging Corbyn to initiate a Vote of No Confifence against the Gov't, she's clearly going to be identified as Labour's key ally both before and after the GE. In such circumstances she can forget all about any bounce in her favour.justin124 said:Interesting polls tonight with perhaps Comres yet to come. The switch from Brexit Party to the Tories is hardly surprising. Overall they confirm my expectation of polarisation with the combined two party vote unlikely to fall below 65% in a GE. Still a very clear Yougov house effect. LibDems probably somewhat disappointed re-Swinson bounce.
0 -
Halfway between the two of you is about right.Philip_Thompson said:
I would set it at:peter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Considering that most bookies make it an evens chance or thereabouts that there will be a GE this calendar year, it's surprising that thus far there are no betting markets, nor spead-betting prices, on the number of seats each of the three major parties are likely to win.
Deducting the current number of SNP seats, those held by the N.I. parties, Plaid, etc, the combined haul of Tory, Labour and LiBDem seats appears likely to total approx 580 seats.
My first stab at how these might shake out, with a 20 seat spread of seats looks something like this to me:
Tory ....... 260 - 280
Labour .... 220 - 240
LibDem ..... 70 - 90
What kind of split of seats between the parties do other PBers anticipate?
One outcome does look very unlikely and that's an overall majority for any party. That's where the betting angle comes into play with those nice folf at Ladbrokes (and presumably Corals also) offering seemingly generous "boosted" odds of 0.7/1 on there being no overall majority ... that looks like value to me but DYOR.
Tory 320-340
Labour 190-210
Lib Dem 40-60
(330, 200, 50 line)
However it all depends upon Halloween. If Boris voluntarily requests an extension then Tory numbers will plummet. If Boris successfully delivers Brexit then Tory numbers will surge.
If there is a VONC and the opposition forces an extension it could go either way depending upon how it goes down . . . I think it could play into Boris's hands, but if Grieve and co put Corbyn into Number 10 expect Lib Dems to crater and it will be like 2017 redux - a binary choice between Tory and Labour.0 -
My guess is that Johnson inspires a lot more visceral dislike among 2017 Labour GE voters than May ever did. That may help nudge Labour upwards. But Corbyn is clearly a millstone around the party’s neck. The Tories need him to stay in place.noisywinter said:
Valid point! Although to an extent the addition of the Labour 2017 vote may to some extent have been a consequence of the Tory campaignSouthamObserver said:
May got 42% in the election. What changed was the Labour vote. That’s the key to all this. Can Labour match Johnson’s claw back of BXP voters? What there is no evidence of so far is the Tories taking 2017 Labour votes. For Johnson to have any degree of confidence of victory that’s what he needs. It’s clearly what he’s after.noisywinter said:
Also, Corbyn is less popular than in 2017, and has angered remainers
Also also, warnings of a Corbyn government unless you vote Tory will be more prescient than in 2017, when Labour surprised bigly. I think that could be worth 2 or 3 % to the Tories
Just my tuppence
0 -
Businesses will be less attracted to these shores with everything that means- you get that right?Gallowgate said:
Let's be honest, a corp. tax rate of 32% isn't going to keep any Labour or Labour-leaning voters up at night. Brazil has a corp. tax rate of 34%. India 35%.FrancisUrquhart said:Jeremy Corbyn is planning to almost double the level of tax on thousands of companies across Britain, one of the country's most prominent law firms has warned.
In a briefing for clients, Herbert Smith Freehills said Labour's economic blueprint includes the equivalent of a corporation tax rate of up to 32 per cent, compared to the 17 per cent rate due to come into force next year.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/27/jeremy-corbyn-planning-almost-double-tax-burden-british-businesses/amp/
0 -
Identifying as Labour’s key ally will damage her in her battle to defeat the SNP in East Dunbartonshire. She is entirely dependent on mass SCon tactical voting to hold the seat.peter_from_putney said:
With Swinson urging Corbyn to initiate a Vote of No Confifence against the Gov't, she's clearly going to be identified as Labour's key ally both before and after the GE. In such circumstances she can forget all about any bounce in her favour.justin124 said:Interesting polls tonight with perhaps Comres yet to come. The switch from Brexit Party to the Tories is hardly surprising. Overall they confirm my expectation of polarisation with the combined two party vote unlikely to fall below 65% in a GE. Still a very clear Yougov house effect. LibDems probably somewhat disappointed re-Swinson bounce.
0 -
Yes - Johnson is every bit as Marmite as Corbyn - though far more malign and disreputable.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that Johnson inspires a lot more visceral dislike among 2017 Labour GE voters than May ever did. That may help nudge Labour upwards. But Corbyn is clearly a millstone around the party’s neck. The Tories need him to stay in place.noisywinter said:
Valid point! Although to an extent the addition of the Labour 2017 vote may to some extent have been a consequence of the Tory campaignSouthamObserver said:
May got 42% in the election. What changed was the Labour vote. That’s the key to all this. Can Labour match Johnson’s claw back of BXP voters? What there is no evidence of so far is the Tories taking 2017 Labour votes. For Johnson to have any degree of confidence of victory that’s what he needs. It’s clearly what he’s after.noisywinter said:
Also, Corbyn is less popular than in 2017, and has angered remainers
Also also, warnings of a Corbyn government unless you vote Tory will be more prescient than in 2017, when Labour surprised bigly. I think that could be worth 2 or 3 % to the Tories
Just my tuppence0 -
Agreed!SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that Johnson inspires a lot more visceral dislike among 2017 Labour GE voters than May ever did. That may help nudge Labour upwards. But Corbyn is clearly a millstone around the party’s neck. The Tories need him to stay in place.noisywinter said:
Valid point! Although to an extent the addition of the Labour 2017 vote may to some extent have been a consequence of the Tory campaignSouthamObserver said:
May got 42% in the election. What changed was the Labour vote. That’s the key to all this. Can Labour match Johnson’s claw back of BXP voters? What there is no evidence of so far is the Tories taking 2017 Labour votes. For Johnson to have any degree of confidence of victory that’s what he needs. It’s clearly what he’s after.noisywinter said:
Also, Corbyn is less popular than in 2017, and has angered remainers
Also also, warnings of a Corbyn government unless you vote Tory will be more prescient than in 2017, when Labour surprised bigly. I think that could be worth 2 or 3 % to the Tories
Just my tuppence0 -
-
Boris is certainly disreputable in some respects. More malign than Corbyn, you jest surely.justin124 said:
Yes - Johnson is every bit as Marmite as Corbyn - though far more malign and disreputable.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that Johnson inspires a lot more visceral dislike among 2017 Labour GE voters than May ever did. That may help nudge Labour upwards. But Corbyn is clearly a millstone around the party’s neck. The Tories need him to stay in place.noisywinter said:
Valid point! Although to an extent the addition of the Labour 2017 vote may to some extent have been a consequence of the Tory campaignSouthamObserver said:
May got 42% in the election. What changed was the Labour vote. That’s the key to all this. Can Labour match Johnson’s claw back of BXP voters? What there is no evidence of so far is the Tories taking 2017 Labour votes. For Johnson to have any degree of confidence of victory that’s what he needs. It’s clearly what he’s after.noisywinter said:
Also, Corbyn is less popular than in 2017, and has angered remainers
Also also, warnings of a Corbyn government unless you vote Tory will be more prescient than in 2017, when Labour surprised bigly. I think that could be worth 2 or 3 % to the Tories
Just my tuppence0 -
Oh yes, that old peach. Apparently winning 59% of our country’s Westminster seats was a total disaster. Ruth only won 22% of the seats, and was proclaimed victor. Gotta love our objective media.Sunil_Prasannan said:
You lost a few Westminster MPs in 2017StuartDickson said:
It is a sign of how far the Tories have fallen that you’d be cockahoop with 32%.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, I don't often agree with HYUFD but he got that virtually spot on.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Congratulations HYUFD.HYUFD said:
Tories on 30% for the first time in months not disappointing at allwilliamglenn said:The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
You called Boris correctly and the 31% is just 1% below your prediction
We may not agree on everything but credit where it is due
It will amaze me if 32% isn't hit within the next week or two too.
My party routinely get c40%, and we’re told that’s rubbish.0 -
ComRes
Elsewhere in the poll, the public tend to agree that Boris Johnson should have time to deliver Brexit and prefer him to some of his rivals, although a majority believe he will be a terrible PM:
Almost three quarters agree that he should be given a proper chance to deliver Brexit before any attempt is made by MPs to try to bring the Government down and trigger a General Election (72%);
Two thirds agree that he will make a better Prime Minister than Jeremy Corbyn (64%) and;
Three in five disagree that they would prefer to continue having Theresa May as Prime Minister than Boris Johnson (59%) but;
A majority agree that he will make a terrible Prime Minister (55%).
0 -
No - Boris just thinks of himself and gives not a toss about anyone else . We need to look no further than his treatment of Tobias Elwood this week - a far, far better human being than he could ever claim to be - to see what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he really is. A lower form of life indeed.steve_garner said:
Boris is certainly disreputable in some respects. More malign than Corbyn, you jest surely.justin124 said:
Yes - Johnson is every bit as Marmite as Corbyn - though far more malign and disreputable.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that Johnson inspires a lot more visceral dislike among 2017 Labour GE voters than May ever did. That may help nudge Labour upwards. But Corbyn is clearly a millstone around the party’s neck. The Tories need him to stay in place.noisywinter said:
Valid point! Although to an extent the addition of the Labour 2017 vote may to some extent have been a consequence of the Tory campaignSouthamObserver said:
May got 42% in the election. What changed was the Labour vote. That’s the key to all this. Can Labour match Johnson’s claw back of BXP voters? What there is no evidence of so far is the Tories taking 2017 Labour votes. For Johnson to have any degree of confidence of victory that’s what he needs. It’s clearly what he’s after.noisywinter said:
Also, Corbyn is less popular than in 2017, and has angered remainers
Also also, warnings of a Corbyn government unless you vote Tory will be more prescient than in 2017, when Labour surprised bigly. I think that could be worth 2 or 3 % to the Tories
Just my tuppence
Many criticisms can be made of Corbyn - some of which I share - but he does consider others.1 -
LOLTheScreamingEagles said:
So we have three polls showing substantial Boris bounces, but the poll from the firm that showed a large hypothetical Boris bounce... does not.
Has Johnson been to campaign in Brecon and Radnorshire?0 -
If this was the GE result my guess is that the Tories would be blown away. Level pegging with Labour and the LDs on 19% spells serious trouble for them.TheScreamingEagles said:
1 -
More evidence that Swinson's attempt to Vonc Boris on Thursday was unpopular as well as unsuccessful. She might be a bit inexperienced for these times. Not a good start by her.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
Elsewhere in the poll, the public tend to agree that Boris Johnson should have time to deliver Brexit and prefer him to some of his rivals, although a majority believe he will be a terrible PM:
Almost three quarters agree that he should be given a proper chance to deliver Brexit before any attempt is made by MPs to try to bring the Government down and trigger a General Election (72%);
Two thirds agree that he will make a better Prime Minister than Jeremy Corbyn (64%) and;
Three in five disagree that they would prefer to continue having Theresa May as Prime Minister than Boris Johnson (59%) but;
A majority agree that he will make a terrible Prime Minister (55%).0 -
The trend in these ComRes polls is a bit unfortunate for Johnson, isn't it?
June 11 (for the Telegraph): CON 37%; LAB 22% (maj. ~140)
July 8 (for the Telegraph): CON 32%; LAB 25% (maj ~40)
July 16 (for Britain Elects): CON 32%; LAB 29% (~15 short of a majority)
And now: CON 28%; LAB 27% (~45 short of a majority)
0 -
SCon slip to 3rd place (16%), behind SLab (19%).TheScreamingEagles said:ht tps://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155229265044103169
0 -
Now you are having a laugh. Like he considered the former Labour staffers on Panorama?justin124 said:
No - Boris just thinks of himself and gives not a toss about anyone else . We need to look no further than his treatment of Tobias Elwood this week - a far, far better human being than he could ever claim to be - to see what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he really is. A lower form of life indeed.steve_garner said:
Boris is certainly disreputable in some respects. More malign than Corbyn, you jest surely.justin124 said:
Yes - Johnson is every bit as Marmite as Corbyn - though far more malign and disreputable.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that Johnson inspires a lot more visceral dislike among 2017 Labour GE voters than May ever did. That may help nudge Labour upwards. But Corbyn is clearly a millstone around the party’s neck. The Tories need him to stay in place.noisywinter said:
Valid point! Although to an extent the addition of the Labour 2017 vote may to some extent have been a consequence of the Tory campaignSouthamObserver said:
May got 42% in the election. What changed was the Labour vote. That’s the key to all this. Can Labour match Johnson’s claw back of BXP voters? What there is no evidence of so far is the Tories taking 2017 Labour votes. For Johnson to have any degree of confidence of victory that’s what he needs. It’s clearly what he’s after.noisywinter said:
Also, Corbyn is less popular than in 2017, and has angered remainers
Also also, warnings of a Corbyn government unless you vote Tory will be more prescient than in 2017, when Labour surprised bigly. I think that could be worth 2 or 3 % to the Tories
Just my tuppence
Many criticisms can be made of Corbyn - some of which I share - but he does consider others.0 -
And your take on YouGov?SouthamObserver said:
If this was the GE result my guess is that the Tories would be blown away. Level pegging with Labour and the LDs on 19% spells serious trouble for them.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Shhhh... HY is a psephological genius. Don’t break the magic.FreddieFoyle said:The trend in these ComRes polls is a bit unfortunate for Johnson, isn't it?
June 11 (for the Telegraph): CON 37%; LAB 22% (maj. ~140)
July 8 (for the Telegraph): CON 32%; LAB 25% (maj ~40)
July 16 (for Britain Elects): CON 32%; LAB 29% (~15 short of a majority)
And now: CON 28%; LAB 27% (~45 short of a majority)1 -
The earlier polls listed there were entirely hypothetical though. Some of us did suggest that they were best ignored.FreddieFoyle said:The trend in these ComRes polls is a bit unfortunate for Johnson, isn't it?
June 11 (for the Telegraph): CON 37%; LAB 22% (maj. ~140)
July 8 (for the Telegraph): CON 32%; LAB 25% (maj ~40)
July 16 (for Britain Elects): CON 32%; LAB 29% (~15 short of a majority)
And now: CON 28%; LAB 27% (~45 short of a majority)2 -
Isteve_garner said:
More evidence that Swinson's attempt to Vonc Boris on Thursday was unpopular as well as unsuccessful. She might be a bit inexperienced for these times. Not a good start by her.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
Elsewhere in the poll, the public tend to agree that Boris Johnson should have time to deliver Brexit and prefer him to some of his rivals, although a majority believe he will be a terrible PM:
Almost three quarters agree that he should be given a proper chance to deliver Brexit before any attempt is made by MPs to try to bring the Government down and trigger a General Election (72%);
Two thirds agree that he will make a better Prime Minister than Jeremy Corbyn (64%) and;
Three in five disagree that they would prefer to continue having Theresa May as Prime Minister than Boris Johnson (59%) but;
A majority agree that he will make a terrible Prime Minister (55%).
Told
You
So
Are you still up for it Ed Davey Esq. M.P.? Remain needs you!0 -
They did not relate to Corbyn personally.steve_garner said:
Now you are having a laugh. Like he considered the former Labour staffers on Panorama?justin124 said:
No - Boris just thinks of himself and gives not a toss about anyone else . We need to look no further than his treatment of Tobias Elwood this week - a far, far better human being than he could ever claim to be - to see what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he really is. A lower form of life indeed.steve_garner said:
Boris is certainly disreputable in some respects. More malign than Corbyn, you jest surely.justin124 said:
Yes - Johnson is every bit as Marmite as Corbyn - though far more malign and disreputable.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that Johnson inspires a lot more visceral dislike among 2017 Labour GE voters than May ever did. That may help nudge Labour upwards. But Corbyn is clearly a millstone around the party’s neck. The Tories need him to stay in place.noisywinter said:
Valid point! Although to an extent the addition of the Labour 2017 vote may to some extent have been a consequence of the Tory campaignSouthamObserver said:
May got 42% in the election. What changed was the Labour vote. That’s the key to all this. Can Labour match Johnson’s claw back of BXP voters? What there is no evidence of so far is the Tories taking 2017 Labour votes. For Johnson to have any degree of confidence of victory that’s what he needs. It’s clearly what he’s after.noisywinter said:
Also, Corbyn is less popular than in 2017, and has angered remainers
Also also, warnings of a Corbyn government unless you vote Tory will be more prescient than in 2017, when Labour surprised bigly. I think that could be worth 2 or 3 % to the Tories
Just my tuppence
Many criticisms can be made of Corbyn - some of which I share - but he does consider others.0 -
Tory win, obviously. As I say below, though, the Tories need to start taking votes from the Labour GE17 coalition before they can be confident of victory. Until that happens they’ll be vulnerable to Labour clawback driven by Johnson’s unpopularity among Remain voters.steve_garner said:
And your take on YouGov?SouthamObserver said:
If this was the GE result my guess is that the Tories would be blown away. Level pegging with Labour and the LDs on 19% spells serious trouble for them.TheScreamingEagles said:
0 -
Brexit has done more to deter business investment than anything Corbyn will ever do.Floater said:
Businesses will be less attracted to these shores with everything that means- you get that right?Gallowgate said:
Let's be honest, a corp. tax rate of 32% isn't going to keep any Labour or Labour-leaning voters up at night. Brazil has a corp. tax rate of 34%. India 35%.FrancisUrquhart said:Jeremy Corbyn is planning to almost double the level of tax on thousands of companies across Britain, one of the country's most prominent law firms has warned.
In a briefing for clients, Herbert Smith Freehills said Labour's economic blueprint includes the equivalent of a corporation tax rate of up to 32 per cent, compared to the 17 per cent rate due to come into force next year.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/27/jeremy-corbyn-planning-almost-double-tax-burden-british-businesses/amp/0 -
I'm sure you're right. Poor behaviour towards Labour people never relates to Corbyn personally does it.justin124 said:
They did not relate to Corbyn personally.steve_garner said:
Now you are having a laugh. Like he considered the former Labour staffers on Panorama?justin124 said:
No - Boris just thinks of himself and gives not a toss about anyone else . We need to look no further than his treatment of Tobias Elwood this week - a far, far better human being than he could ever claim to be - to see what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he really is. A lower form of life indeed.steve_garner said:
Boris is certainly disreputable in some respects. More malign than Corbyn, you jest surely.justin124 said:
Yes - Johnson is every bit as Marmite as Corbyn - though far more malign and disreputable.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that Johnson inspires a lot more visceral dislike among 2017 Labour GE voters than May ever did. That may help nudge Labour upwards. But Corbyn is clearly a millstone around the party’s neck. The Tories need him to stay in place.noisywinter said:
Valid point! Although to an extent the addition of the Labour 2017 vote may to some extent have been a consequence of the Tory campaignSouthamObserver said:
May got 42% in the election. What changed was the Labour vote. That’s the key to all this. Can Labour match Johnson’s claw back of BXP voters? What there is no evidence of so far is the Tories taking 2017 Labour votes. For Johnson to have any degree of confidence of victory that’s what he needs. It’s clearly what he’s after.noisywinter said:
Also, Corbyn is less popular than in 2017, and has angered remainers
Also also, warnings of a Corbyn government unless you vote Tory will be more prescient than in 2017, when Labour surprised bigly. I think that could be worth 2 or 3 % to the Tories
Just my tuppence
Many criticisms can be made of Corbyn - some of which I share - but he does consider others.0 -
The former Tory chancellor Philip Hammond held private talks with Labour’s Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer shortly before Boris Johnson entered Downing Street last Wednesday, to plot cross-party moves aimed at preventing the new prime minister agreeing to a no-deal Brexit.
Hammond plots with Labour to kill Johnson’s no-deal Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/27/hammond-plots-with-starmer-to-kill-no-deal-brexit0 -
I didn't say you lost the election, I said you lost "a few MPs".StuartDickson said:
Oh yes, that old peach. Apparently winning 59% of our country’s Westminster seats was a total disaster. Ruth only won 22% of the seats, and was proclaimed victor. Gotta love our objective media.Sunil_Prasannan said:
You lost a few Westminster MPs in 2017StuartDickson said:
It is a sign of how far the Tories have fallen that you’d be cockahoop with 32%.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, I don't often agree with HYUFD but he got that virtually spot on.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Congratulations HYUFD.HYUFD said:
Tories on 30% for the first time in months not disappointing at allwilliamglenn said:The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
You called Boris correctly and the 31% is just 1% below your prediction
We may not agree on everything but credit where it is due
It will amaze me if 32% isn't hit within the next week or two too.
My party routinely get c40%, and we’re told that’s rubbish.0 -
Averages of the 4 new polls tonight:
Con 29.75%
Lab 25.25%
LD 18.25%
BRX 14.50%0 -
It could do. A bit of tactical voting by anti-Tories could deprive them of scores of seats.SouthamObserver said:
If this was the GE result my guess is that the Tories would be blown away. Level pegging with Labour and the LDs on 19% spells serious trouble for them.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
That must surely put the kibosh on any snap GE? Nowhere near enough of a lead for such a gamble. Labour still ahead of LDs, and, significantly, in all four polls. Which means not much tactical voting, would stifle any Tory majority.AndyJS said:Averages of the 4 new polls tonight:
Con 29.75%
Lab 25.25%
LD 18.25%
BRX 14.50%
Same 1234 positions in each poll, too.0 -
Excellent. Game on!FrancisUrquhart said:The former Tory chancellor Philip Hammond held private talks with Labour’s Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer shortly before Boris Johnson entered Downing Street last Wednesday, to plot cross-party moves aimed at preventing the new prime minister agreeing to a no-deal Brexit.
Hammond plots with Labour to kill Johnson’s no-deal Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/27/hammond-plots-with-starmer-to-kill-no-deal-brexit0 -
Baxtered that gives Con +2, Lab -35, LibDem +34, Plaid -1AndyJS said:Averages of the 4 new polls tonight:
Con 29.75%
Lab 25.25%
LD 18.25%
BRX 14.50%
I suppose the Independent Tories would be swept away, but it wouldn't be a mandate for no deal.0 -
I agree, unless the polls continue to shift in the next few days/weeks.dixiedean said:
That must surely put the kibosh on any snap GE? Nowhere near enough of a lead for such a gamble. Labour still ahead of LDs, and, significantly, in all four polls. Which means not much tactical voting, would stifle any Tory majority.AndyJS said:Averages of the 4 new polls tonight:
Con 29.75%
Lab 25.25%
LD 18.25%
BRX 14.50%
Same 1234 positions in each poll, too.0 -
I thought that Jo Swinson was actually challenging the Labour leadership to finally stand up to this rotten Tory government and stop being a door mat. She is not identifying the Lib Dems as supporters of the cowardly Labour leaders, but inviting them to join the Lib Dems in confronting this Tory dictatorship. Not much chance that Corbyn and his controllers will do anything of the sort though!StuartDickson said:
Identifying as Labour’s key ally will damage her in her battle to defeat the SNP in East Dunbartonshire. She is entirely dependent on mass SCon tactical voting to hold the seat.peter_from_putney said:
With Swinson urging Corbyn to initiate a Vote of No Confifence against the Gov't, she's clearly going to be identified as Labour's key ally both before and after the GE. In such circumstances she can forget all about any bounce in her favour.justin124 said:Interesting polls tonight with perhaps Comres yet to come. The switch from Brexit Party to the Tories is hardly surprising. Overall they confirm my expectation of polarisation with the combined two party vote unlikely to fall below 65% in a GE. Still a very clear Yougov house effect. LibDems probably somewhat disappointed re-Swinson bounce.
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Think worth noting, its schools hols so a lot of people are away / out and about enjoying the sun.1
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So what do we call a Boris Bounce that is lower than the Boris Bounce one would expect given that we are talking Boris here and the whole reason he was chosen was to get a Bounce that only he could deliver? I don't know. A slightly underwhelming Boris Bounce?
What I do know is that he has a mountain to climb if he is to retain power in any pre-Brexit general election. The power of Remainer tactical voting in what is now Remain Nation will be hugely difficult for him to overcome.0 -
A fair point, well made. Not up here though. It has been peeing down for 24 hours straight!FrancisUrquhart said:Think worth noting, its schools hols so a lot of people are away / out and about enjoying the sun.
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Gosh. If that's true, yeesh.FrancisUrquhart said:The former Tory chancellor Philip Hammond held private talks with Labour’s Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer shortly before Boris Johnson entered Downing Street last Wednesday, to plot cross-party moves aimed at preventing the new prime minister agreeing to a no-deal Brexit.
Hammond plots with Labour to kill Johnson’s no-deal Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/27/hammond-plots-with-starmer-to-kill-no-deal-brexit0 -
It looks like a 35% strategy for Johnson. Conservative gains are entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party. There is a potential combined pool of 45% of the vote. A proportion of the Brexit Party vote will presumably remain loyal, hence the 35%. There is no movement in or out of the Con+BP block, although there is movement between parties within the opposition block. Whether 35% will get Johnson the convincing win be is looking for would in that case depend entirely on the distribution of votes within the opposition block.
(There are many possibilities of those assumptions being overturned, but I think that's the situation right now).0 -
A Boris splat?kinabalu said:So what do we call a Boris Bounce that is lower than the Boris Bounce one would expect given that we are talking Boris here and the whole reason he was chosen was to get a Bounce that only he could deliver? I don't know. A slightly underwhelming Boris Bounce?
I'm kinda assuming he wants the HoC to block him now, so he can say he "has no choice" but to call an election. Then he can completely steal BXP's thunder with a tell-them-again message, and voila.
Plenty things can go wrong with that, of course.
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Can't agree. Boris has made a lot of promises which I believe to be empty. A VONC now would allow him to continue to peddle bollocks. He deserves the chance to achieve them, or, more likely, land on his backside. Most notably re achieving a revised Deal. Of which, there is no evidence of any kind.PClipp said:
I thought that Jo Swinson was actually challenging the Labour leadership to finally stand up to this rotten Tory government and stop being a door mat. She is not identifying the Lib Dems as supporters of the cowardly Labour leaders, but inviting them to join the Lib Dems in confronting this Tory dictatorship. Not much chance that Corbyn and his controllers will do anything of the sort though!StuartDickson said:
Identifying as Labour’s key ally will damage her in her battle to defeat the SNP in East Dunbartonshire. She is entirely dependent on mass SCon tactical voting to hold the seat.peter_from_putney said:
With Swinson urging Corbyn to initiate a Vote of No Confifence against the Gov't, she's clearly going to be identified as Labour's key ally both before and after the GE. In such circumstances she can forget all about any bounce in her favour.justin124 said:Interesting polls tonight with perhaps Comres yet to come. The switch from Brexit Party to the Tories is hardly surprising. Overall they confirm my expectation of polarisation with the combined two party vote unlikely to fall below 65% in a GE. Still a very clear Yougov house effect. LibDems probably somewhat disappointed re-Swinson bounce.
He needs to be tested in government, not turfed out to plead how wonderful everything would be if only he had a majority.
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As he put the finishing touches to his Cabinet and his first speech, Mr Johnson ordered burgers from Byron.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7293253/Inside-story-Boris-Johnsons-burger-coup.html0 -
CuckooPeterMannion said:
Who?StuartDickson said:
Scottish National PartyOmnium said:
Who's your party?StuartDickson said:
It is a sign of how far the Tories have fallen that you’d be cockahoop with 32%.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed, I don't often agree with HYUFD but he got that virtually spot on.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Congratulations HYUFD.HYUFD said:
Tories on 30% for the first time in months not disappointing at allwilliamglenn said:The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
You called Boris correctly and the 31% is just 1% below your prediction
We may not agree on everything but credit where it is due
It will amaze me if 32% isn't hit within the next week or two too.
My party routinely get c40%, and we’re told that’s rubbish.0
