The trend in these ComRes polls is a bit unfortunate for Johnson, isn't it?
June 11 (for the Telegraph): CON 37%; LAB 22% (maj. ~140) July 8 (for the Telegraph): CON 32%; LAB 25% (maj ~40) July 16 (for Britain Elects): CON 32%; LAB 29% (~15 short of a majority)
And now: CON 28%; LAB 27% (~45 short of a majority)
The earlier polls listed there were entirely hypothetical though. Some of us did suggest that they were best ignored.
Most polls are best ignored. But that isn't going to stop us talking the hell out of this set until the decimal points start making us bleed.
It looks like a 35% strategy for Johnson. Conservative gains are entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party. There is a potential combined pool of 45% of the vote. A proportion of the Brexit Party vote will presumably remain loyal, hence the 35%. There is no movement in or out of the Con+BP block, although there is movement between parties within the opposition block. Whether 35% will get Johnson the convincing win be is looking for would in that case depend entirely on the distribution of votes within the opposition block.
(There are many possibilities of those assumptions being overturned, but I think that's the situation right now).
The one outlier is Ipsos Mori, which had a CON+BXP aggregate of 38% in their last poll.
If they're right, and the other polling firms are wrong it would make all the difference.
***** Betting Post ***** Considering that most bookies make it an evens chance or thereabouts that there will be a GE this calendar year, it's surprising that thus far there are no betting markets, nor spead-betting prices, on the number of seats each of the three major parties are likely to win. Deducting the current number of SNP seats, those held by the N.I. parties, Plaid, etc, the combined haul of Tory, Labour and LiBDem seats appears likely to total approx 580 seats. My first stab at how these might shake out, with a 20 seat spread of seats looks something like this to me: Tory ....... 260 - 280 Labour .... 220 - 240 LibDem ..... 70 - 90 What kind of split of seats between the parties do other PBers anticipate? One outcome does look very unlikely and that's an overall majority for any party. That's where the betting angle comes into play with those nice folf at Ladbrokes (and presumably Corals also) offering seemingly generous "boosted" odds of 0.7/1 on there being no overall majority ... that looks like value to me but DYOR.
Is anyone going to be really brave and suggest that the LibDems' haul of GE seats could run well into 3 figures? At what share of the popular vote, do seats start to really tumble their way?
Interesting polls tonight with perhaps Comres yet to come. The switch from Brexit Party to the Tories is hardly surprising. Overall they confirm my expectation of polarisation with the combined two party vote unlikely to fall below 65% in a GE. Still a very clear Yougov house effect. LibDems probably somewhat disappointed re-Swinson bounce.
With Swinson urging Corbyn to initiate a Vote of No Confifence against the Gov't, she's clearly going to be identified as Labour's key ally both before and after the GE. In such circumstances she can forget all about any bounce in her favour.
Identifying as Labour’s key ally will damage her in her battle to defeat the SNP in East Dunbartonshire. She is entirely dependent on mass SCon tactical voting to hold the seat.
I thought that Jo Swinson was actually challenging the Labour leadership to finally stand up to this rotten Tory government and stop being a door mat. She is not identifying the Lib Dems as supporters of the cowardly Labour leaders, but inviting them to join the Lib Dems in confronting this Tory dictatorship. Not much chance that Corbyn and his controllers will do anything of the sort though!
Jeremy Corbyn is planning to almost double the level of tax on thousands of companies across Britain, one of the country's most prominent law firms has warned.
In a briefing for clients, Herbert Smith Freehills said Labour's economic blueprint includes the equivalent of a corporation tax rate of up to 32 per cent, compared to the 17 per cent rate due to come into force next year.
Let's be honest, a corp. tax rate of 32% isn't going to keep any Labour or Labour-leaning voters up at night. Brazil has a corp. tax rate of 34%. India 35%.
Businesses will be less attracted to these shores with everything that means- you get that right?
Brexit has done more to deter business investment than anything Corbyn will ever do.
It looks like a 35% strategy for Johnson. Conservative gains are entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party. There is a potential combined pool of 45% of the vote. A proportion of the Brexit Party vote will presumably remain loyal, hence the 35%. There is no movement in or out of the Con+BP block, although there is movement between parties within the opposition block. Whether 35% will get Johnson the convincing win be is looking for would in that case depend entirely on the distribution of votes within the opposition block.
(There are many possibilities of those assumptions being overturned, but I think that's the situation right now).
There is also a significant proportion of that BP bloc who wouldn't vote Tory under any circumstances. This we learned when people added Con +UKIP together before 2017.
Do you expect Boris to bad as much of a disaster on the campaign as May?
May got 42% in the election. What changed was the Labour vote. That’s the key to all this. Can Labour match Johnson’s claw back of BXP voters? What there is no evidence of so far is the Tories taking 2017 Labour votes. For Johnson to have any degree of confidence of victory that’s what he needs. It’s clearly what he’s after.
Valid point! Although to an extent the addition of the Labour 2017 vote may to some extent have been a consequence of the Tory campaign
Also, Corbyn is less popular than in 2017, and has angered remainers
Also also, warnings of a Corbyn government unless you vote Tory will be more prescient than in 2017, when Labour surprised bigly. I think that could be worth 2 or 3 % to the Tories
Just my tuppence
My guess is that Johnson inspires a lot more visceral dislike among 2017 Labour GE voters than May ever did. That may help nudge Labour upwards. But Corbyn is clearly a millstone around the party’s neck. The Tories need him to stay in place.
Yes - Johnson is every bit as Marmite as Corbyn - though far more malign and disreputable.
Jeremy Corbyn is planning to almost double the level of tax on thousands of companies across Britain, one of the country's most prominent law firms has warned.
In a briefing for clients, Herbert Smith Freehills said Labour's economic blueprint includes the equivalent of a corporation tax rate of up to 32 per cent, compared to the 17 per cent rate due to come into force next year.
Let's be honest, a corp. tax rate of 32% isn't going to keep any Labour or Labour-leaning voters up at night. Brazil has a corp. tax rate of 34%. India 35%.
Businesses will be less attracted to these shores with everything that means- you get that right?
Brexit has done more to deter business investment than anything Corbyn will ever do.
Evidence please
Just look up investment stats of the last 2 years.
It looks like a 35% strategy for Johnson. Conservative gains are entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party. There is a potential combined pool of 45% of the vote. A proportion of the Brexit Party vote will presumably remain loyal, hence the 35%. There is no movement in or out of the Con+BP block, although there is movement between parties within the opposition block. Whether 35% will get Johnson the convincing win be is looking for would in that case depend entirely on the distribution of votes within the opposition block.
(There are many possibilities of those assumptions being overturned, but I think that's the situation right now).
The one outlier is Ipsos Mori, which had a CON+BXP aggregate of 38% in their last poll.
If they're right, and the other polling firms are wrong it would make all the difference.
I am happy to believe the 45% English sovereigntist vote. It has been consistent since the 2017 General Election. It doesn't seem to be changing with the Johnson regime.
It looks like a 35% strategy for Johnson. Conservative gains are entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party. There is a potential combined pool of 45% of the vote. A proportion of the Brexit Party vote will presumably remain loyal, hence the 35%. There is no movement in or out of the Con+BP block, although there is movement between parties within the opposition block. Whether 35% will get Johnson the convincing win be is looking for would in that case depend entirely on the distribution of votes within the opposition block.
(There are many possibilities of those assumptions being overturned, but I think that's the situation right now).
There is also a significant proportion of that BP bloc who wouldn't vote Tory under any circumstances. This we learned when people added Con +UKIP together before 2017.
Hence my suggestion that Johnson is getting close to his current ceiling. That could change, if for example Farage does a pact with the Cons. The UKIP vote was drastically squeezed in the 2017 GE. Unfortunately for Theresa May, Labour did the same thing in the liberal parties camp.
So we have three polls showing substantial Boris bounces, but the poll from the firm that showed a large hypothetical Boris bounce... does not.
Has Johnson been to campaign in Brecon and Radnorshire?
Excuse me, even Comres tonight has gone from the Tories 3 points behind Labour to ahead of Labour.
The other polls tonight give the Tories bigger leads and put them back at the 30%+ mark.
Thanks to Boris the Tories are now in the lead again, a lead that could expand if the Brexit Party can be squeezed further
I'd be surprised if this trend isn't continued with future polls. These polls tonight probably haven't captured the full force of the Boris bounce IMO. Having said that, the Labour share is holding up slightly better than I was expecting.
That must surely put the kibosh on any snap GE? Nowhere near enough of a lead for such a gamble. Labour still ahead of LDs, and, significantly, in all four polls. Which means not much tactical voting, would stifle any Tory majority. Same 1234 positions in each poll, too.
I don't personally believe that these findings will deter Labour from moving a VNOC. They could have been worse , and I suspect the data will have slipped away from Boris by September.
The trend in these ComRes polls is a bit unfortunate for Johnson, isn't it?
June 11 (for the Telegraph): CON 37%; LAB 22% (maj. ~140) July 8 (for the Telegraph): CON 32%; LAB 25% (maj ~40) July 16 (for Britain Elects): CON 32%; LAB 29% (~15 short of a majority)
And now: CON 28%; LAB 27% (~45 short of a majority)
If you fit a quadratic curve to the Tory lead, we can clearly see that it's about to start rising again, and will be in the mid-20s by election day. :-D
It looks like a 35% strategy for Johnson. Conservative gains are entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party. There is a potential combined pool of 45% of the vote. A proportion of the Brexit Party vote will presumably remain loyal, hence the 35%. There is no movement in or out of the Con+BP block, although there is movement between parties within the opposition block. Whether 35% will get Johnson the convincing win be is looking for would in that case depend entirely on the distribution of votes within the opposition block.
(There are many possibilities of those assumptions being overturned, but I think that's the situation right now).
There is also a significant proportion of that BP bloc who wouldn't vote Tory under any circumstances. This we learned when people added Con +UKIP together before 2017.
Hence my suggestion that Johnson is getting close to his current ceiling. That could change, if for example Farage does a pact with the Cons. The UKIP vote was drastically squeezed in the 2017 GE. Unfortunately for Theresa May, Labour did the same thing in the liberal parties camp.
If they do get squeezed, BP that is, where would the circa 10% non Tory at any cost go? That is the unanswered conundrum. My guess at least 3-4 % to Labour. More if Farage did a pact with Boris.
It looks like a 35% strategy for Johnson. Conservative gains are entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party. There is a potential combined pool of 45% of the vote. A proportion of the Brexit Party vote will presumably remain loyal, hence the 35%. There is no movement in or out of the Con+BP block, although there is movement between parties within the opposition block. Whether 35% will get Johnson the convincing win be is looking for would in that case depend entirely on the distribution of votes within the opposition block.
(There are many possibilities of those assumptions being overturned, but I think that's the situation right now).
There is also a significant proportion of that BP bloc who wouldn't vote Tory under any circumstances. This we learned when people added Con +UKIP together before 2017.
Hence my suggestion that Johnson is getting close to his current ceiling. That could change, if for example Farage does a pact with the Cons. The UKIP vote was drastically squeezed in the 2017 GE. Unfortunately for Theresa May, Labour did the same thing in the liberal parties camp.
If they do get squeezed, BP that is, where would the circa 10% non Tory at any cost go? That is the unanswered conundrum. My guess at least 3-4 % to Labour. More if Farage did a pact with Boris.
Are you taking into account the potential for Jacob Rees-Mogg to attract the working-class vote?
It looks like a 35% strategy for Johnson. Conservative gains are entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party. There is a potential combined pool of 45% of the vote. A proportion of the Brexit Party vote will presumably remain loyal, hence the 35%. There is no movement in or out of the Con+BP block, although there is movement between parties within the opposition block. Whether 35% will get Johnson the convincing win be is looking for would in that case depend entirely on the distribution of votes within the opposition block.
(There are many possibilities of those assumptions being overturned, but I think that's the situation right now).
There is also a significant proportion of that BP bloc who wouldn't vote Tory under any circumstances. This we learned when people added Con +UKIP together before 2017.
Hence my suggestion that Johnson is getting close to his current ceiling. That could change, if for example Farage does a pact with the Cons. The UKIP vote was drastically squeezed in the 2017 GE. Unfortunately for Theresa May, Labour did the same thing in the liberal parties camp.
If they do get squeezed, BP that is, where would the circa 10% non Tory at any cost go? That is the unanswered conundrum. My guess at least 3-4 % to Labour. More if Farage did a pact with Boris.
Are you taking into account the potential for Jacob Rees-Mogg to attract the working-class vote?
By addressing them as "Esq" in his letters to them ...
Have to ask - what do those 14.5% Brexit Party voters want if not Boris delivering Brexit - Deal or No Deal?
There aint as strange as folk...it is like the percentage of lib dem supporters who are leavers.
More seriously, i wouldnt surprise me if it is people who really dont like / trust may and now boris and personally think farage is the man. Like corbyn, there is a cult following for nige.
Have to ask - what do those 14.5% Brexit Party voters want if not Boris delivering Brexit - Deal or No Deal?
A fair bit of it is an Anti-Establishment or NOTA vote. Quite a few could switch to the Greens or LibDems on the same basis. That was always true of the 2015 UKIP vote - which is why it did not switch en bloc to the Tories in 2017 as so many predicted.
So we have three polls showing substantial Boris bounces, but the poll from the firm that showed a large hypothetical Boris bounce... does not.
Has Johnson been to campaign in Brecon and Radnorshire?
Excuse me, even Comres tonight has gone from the Tories 3 points behind Labour to ahead of Labour.
The other polls tonight give the Tories bigger leads and put them back at the 30%+ mark.
Thanks to Boris the Tories are now in the lead again, a lead that could expand if the Brexit Party can be squeezed further
It's still a smaller bounce than in the hypothetical poll or the other polls today, so I think I'm entirely justified in finding it amusing.
Yougov gives the Boris led Tory Party a huge 10% lead tonight, bigger than even the Comres hypothetical poll and a swing from Labour to Tory of 4% since the last general election.
Yougov was the most accurate pollster in the European Parliament elections (bar Mori) while other pollsters overestimated Labour
So we have three polls showing substantial Boris bounces, but the poll from the firm that showed a large hypothetical Boris bounce... does not.
Has Johnson been to campaign in Brecon and Radnorshire?
Excuse me, even Comres tonight has gone from the Tories 3 points behind Labour to ahead of Labour.
The other polls tonight give the Tories bigger leads and put them back at the 30%+ mark.
Thanks to Boris the Tories are now in the lead again, a lead that could expand if the Brexit Party can be squeezed further
It's still a smaller bounce than in the hypothetical poll or the other polls today, so I think I'm entirely justified in finding it amusing.
Yougov gives the Boris led Tory Party a huge 10% lead tonight, bigger than even the Comres hypothetical poll and a swing from Labour to Tory of 4% since the last general election.
Yougov was the most accurate pollster in the European Parliament elections (bar Mori) while other pollsters overestimated Labour
So we have three polls showing substantial Boris bounces, but the poll from the firm that showed a large hypothetical Boris bounce... does not.
Has Johnson been to campaign in Brecon and Radnorshire?
Excuse me, even Comres tonight has gone from the Tories 3 points behind Labour to ahead of Labour.
The other polls tonight give the Tories bigger leads and put them back at the 30%+ mark.
Thanks to Boris the Tories are now in the lead again, a lead that could expand if the Brexit Party can be squeezed further
I'd be surprised if this trend isn't continued with future polls. These polls tonight probably haven't captured the full force of the Boris bounce IMO. Having said that, the Labour share is holding up slightly better than I was expecting.
Except with Yougov, the most accurate pollster in the European Parliament elections of the polls out tonight
Have to ask - what do those 14.5% Brexit Party voters want if not Boris delivering Brexit - Deal or No Deal?
A fair bit of it is an Anti-Establishment or NOTA vote. Quite a few could switch to the Greens or LibDems on the same basis. That was always true of the 2015 UKIP vote - which is why it did not switch en bloc to the Tories in 2017 as so many predicted.
But I would suggest close to nil will go to Labour or the LibDems - and the bulk of it would be very low-hanging fruit for Boris to pluck...
Have to ask - what do those 14.5% Brexit Party voters want if not Boris delivering Brexit - Deal or No Deal?
Don't forget that Brexit is popular on the hard left. At the moment the Brexit Party can still appeal to them. They are going to be very unhappy with the Labour Party's current trajectory and are not going to vote Tory except on medical advice. There aren't many of them, but there are a lot more than you'd think from the coverage they get and enough to mess up the idea that TBP=disgruntled Tories.
It looks like a 35% strategy for Johnson. Conservative gains are entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party. There is a potential combined pool of 45% of the vote. A proportion of the Brexit Party vote will presumably remain loyal, hence the 35%. There is no movement in or out of the Con+BP block, although there is movement between parties within the opposition block. Whether 35% will get Johnson the convincing win be is looking for would in that case depend entirely on the distribution of votes within the opposition block.
(There are many possibilities of those assumptions being overturned, but I think that's the situation right now).
One factor that we are ignoring is Scotland. May's arse was saved in 2017 by Ruth. If the Tories do not do as well in Scotland compared to 2017, by how much does Boris have to overperform in E&W to win?
It looks like a 35% strategy for Johnson. Conservative gains are entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party. There is a potential combined pool of 45% of the vote. A proportion of the Brexit Party vote will presumably remain loyal, hence the 35%. There is no movement in or out of the Con+BP block, although there is movement between parties within the opposition block. Whether 35% will get Johnson the convincing win be is looking for would in that case depend entirely on the distribution of votes within the opposition block.
(There are many possibilities of those assumptions being overturned, but I think that's the situation right now).
One factor that we are ignoring is Scotland. May's arse was saved in 2017 by Ruth. If the Tories do not do as well in Scotland compared to 2017, by how much does Boris have to overperform in E&W to win?
At most the Tories probably lose 10 seats in Scotland and keep 3.
That just means 10 extra Labour Leave seats in England and Wales gained to compensate
It looks like a 35% strategy for Johnson. Conservative gains are entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party. There is a potential combined pool of 45% of the vote. A proportion of the Brexit Party vote will presumably remain loyal, hence the 35%. There is no movement in or out of the Con+BP block, although there is movement between parties within the opposition block. Whether 35% will get Johnson the convincing win be is looking for would in that case depend entirely on the distribution of votes within the opposition block.
(There are many possibilities of those assumptions being overturned, but I think that's the situation right now).
One factor that we are ignoring is Scotland. May's arse was saved in 2017 by Ruth. If the Tories do not do as well in Scotland compared to 2017, by how much does Boris have to overperform in E&W to win?
At most the Tories probably lose 10 seats in Scotland and keep 3.
That just means 10 extra Labour Leave seats in England and Wales gained to compensate
And you don’t see a problem with a party claiming to be the UK government having minimal representation in Scotland?
If I was Jareds financial adviser I'd be saying don't rush, every day of that gold plated pension accrual is sorting your future out nicely.... Obv there's a tad other issues to reflect on too but....
Have to ask - what do those 14.5% Brexit Party voters want if not Boris delivering Brexit - Deal or No Deal?
Don't forget that Brexit is popular on the hard left. At the moment the Brexit Party can still appeal to them. They are going to be very unhappy with the Labour Party's current trajectory and are not going to vote Tory except on medical advice. There aren't many of them, but there are a lot more than you'd think from the coverage they get and enough to mess up the idea that TBP=disgruntled Tories.
They are not only "the hard left". There are plenty of low income, low information voters, broadly pro-public spending, anti-foreigner (but not necessarily racist) in general. They love Nige, who gives them a reason to vote. If it weren't him, it would be Labour or stay at home. They neither love, nor trust the Tories who have done nowt for them. They are much less socially conservative than is commonly imagined too.
If I was Jareds financial adviser I'd be saying don't rush, every day of that gold plated pension accrual is sorting your future out nicely.... Obv there's a tad other issues to reflect on too but....
I don't think he will have built up much of a pension pot after 27 months
But it does feel greedy to carry on taking his salary until September - considering he has already stated that he isn't going to do anything.
Yes, he needs to get his mental health sorted - that is absolutely the right thing to do. But he should just go and do that and not delay his departure
Have to ask - what do those 14.5% Brexit Party voters want if not Boris delivering Brexit - Deal or No Deal?
Straight to WTO terms, No Deal Brexit without passing go please and no more immigration either please.
Even with Boris as Tory leader the Brexit Party will still get 10 to 15% as tonight's polls show
If you think the Brexit Party is going to hang on to the kind of vote share it has in these polls, I think you should be very worried indeed about Tory prospects in an election - at least if it becomes clear that Johnson is taking us towards No Deal.
If moving towards No Deal doesn't attract any more Brexit Party supporters, then at best it's going to leave Tory support where it is, but more realistically the Tories are going to lose some support to the Lib Dems and other parties.
That would leave the Tories in the high 20s, Brexit in the low teens, and the other 60% not supporting No Deal. The Tories would need the 60% to be split between the other parties very evenly to stand any chance at all. But if Brexit were a strong enough motivation for people to abandon their traditional allegiance and vote tactically - as I think the Euro elections showed - then they would be in very deep trouble indeed.
Have to ask - what do those 14.5% Brexit Party voters want if not Boris delivering Brexit - Deal or No Deal?
A fair bit of it is an Anti-Establishment or NOTA vote. Quite a few could switch to the Greens or LibDems on the same basis. That was always true of the 2015 UKIP vote - which is why it did not switch en bloc to the Tories in 2017 as so many predicted.
But I would suggest close to nil will go to Labour or the LibDems - and the bulk of it would be very low-hanging fruit for Boris to pluck...
That was not the case in 2017 when circa 15% of the 2015 UKIP vote switched to Labour.
Have to ask - what do those 14.5% Brexit Party voters want if not Boris delivering Brexit - Deal or No Deal?
Straight to WTO terms, No Deal Brexit without passing go please and no more immigration either please.
Even with Boris as Tory leader the Brexit Party will still get 10 to 15% as tonight's polls show
If you think the Brexit Party is going to hang on to the kind of vote share it has in these polls, I think you should be very worried indeed about Tory prospects in an election - at least if it becomes clear that Johnson is taking us towards No Deal.
If moving towards No Deal doesn't attract any more Brexit Party supporters, then at best it's going to leave Tory support where it is, but more realistically the Tories are going to lose some support to the Lib Dems and other parties.
That would leave the Tories in the high 20s, Brexit in the low teens, and the other 60% not supporting No Deal. The Tories would need the 60% to be split between the other parties very evenly to stand any chance at all. But if Brexit were a strong enough motivation for people to abandon their traditional allegiance and vote tactically - as I think the Euro elections showed - then they would be in very deep trouble indeed.
Nope, the Brexit Party will probably end up with about 10% against Boris ie half the 20% or so it was polling under May.
The Tories will be up to about 30 to 35% with the LDs on about 15 to 20% and Labour on about 20 to 25%.
That this enables a Tory majority and a historic 4th consecutive Tory government for only the 2nd time on the last 100 years
Without named leaders that is as pointless a poll as US polls showing a generic Democrat comfortably beating Trump while say Trump beats Elizabeth Warren.
At the moment Corbyn is Labour leader and Boris comfortably beats him and no named Labour alternative currently beats Boris
Have to ask - what do those 14.5% Brexit Party voters want if not Boris delivering Brexit - Deal or No Deal?
A fair bit of it is an Anti-Establishment or NOTA vote. Quite a few could switch to the Greens or LibDems on the same basis. That was always true of the 2015 UKIP vote - which is why it did not switch en bloc to the Tories in 2017 as so many predicted.
But I would suggest close to nil will go to Labour or the LibDems - and the bulk of it would be very low-hanging fruit for Boris to pluck...
That was not the case in 2017 when circa 15% of the 2015 UKIP vote switched to Labour.
That was when they were claiming they would implement brexit. It is nailed on at the GE they will have a policy that is remain based.
It looks like a 35% strategy for Johnson. Conservative gains are entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party. There is a potential combined pool of 45% of the vote. A proportion of the Brexit Party vote will presumably remain loyal, hence the 35%. There is no movement in or out of the Con+BP block, although there is movement between parties within the opposition block. Whether 35% will get Johnson the convincing win be is looking for would in that case depend entirely on the distribution of votes within the opposition block.
(There are many possibilities of those assumptions being overturned, but I think that's the situation right now).
One factor that we are ignoring is Scotland. May's arse was saved in 2017 by Ruth. If the Tories do not do as well in Scotland compared to 2017, by how much does Boris have to overperform in E&W to win?
At most the Tories probably lose 10 seats in Scotland and keep 3.
That just means 10 extra Labour Leave seats in England and Wales gained to compensate
And you don’t see a problem with a party claiming to be the UK government having minimal representation in Scotland?
No, the Tories had just 1 seat in Scotland from 2015 to 2017 but an overall majority in the UK.
Scotland has its own Parliament for most Scottish domestic issues anyway
Here we go. More rallies. More leadership cult stuff. More shouting and cheering the flag or the slogan or the leader. More suspension of every day democratic norms and party basics.
Where will all this end? History says in a very dark place.
Have to ask - what do those 14.5% Brexit Party voters want if not Boris delivering Brexit - Deal or No Deal?
A fair bit of it is an Anti-Establishment or NOTA vote. Quite a few could switch to the Greens or LibDems on the same basis. That was always true of the 2015 UKIP vote - which is why it did not switch en bloc to the Tories in 2017 as so many predicted.
But I would suggest close to nil will go to Labour or the LibDems - and the bulk of it would be very low-hanging fruit for Boris to pluck...
That was not the case in 2017 when circa 15% of the 2015 UKIP vote switched to Labour.
That was when they were claiming they would implement brexit. It is nailed on at the GE they will have a policy that is remain based.
A significant chunk of UKIP's vote was unrelated to Brexit. Moreover, quite a few Brexit voters were white working class in background who found voting Tory to be beyond the pale. In any forced choice scenario, they would return to Labour.
Without named leaders that is as pointless a poll as US polls showing a generic Democrat comfortably beating Trump while say Trump beats Elizabeth Warren.
At the moment Corbyn is Labour leader and Boris comfortably beats him and no named Labour alternative currently beats Boris
Hypotheticals are a broad indication, no more. Would Labour do better under a fantasy unnamed leader? Absolutely. Who is this person? Unfortunately we don't know.
Have to ask - what do those 14.5% Brexit Party voters want if not Boris delivering Brexit - Deal or No Deal?
Straight to WTO terms, No Deal Brexit without passing go please and no more immigration either please.
Even with Boris as Tory leader the Brexit Party will still get 10 to 15% as tonight's polls show
If you think the Brexit Party is going to hang on to the kind of vote share it has in these polls, I think you should be very worried indeed about Tory prospects in an election - at least if it becomes clear that Johnson is taking us towards No Deal.
If moving towards No Deal doesn't attract any more Brexit Party supporters, then at best it's going to leave Tory support where it is, but more realistically the Tories are going to lose some support to the Lib Dems and other parties.
That would leave the Tories in the high 20s, Brexit in the low teens, and the other 60% not supporting No Deal. The Tories would need the 60% to be split between the other parties very evenly to stand any chance at all. But if Brexit were a strong enough motivation for people to abandon their traditional allegiance and vote tactically - as I think the Euro elections showed - then they would be in very deep trouble indeed.
Nope, the Brexit Party will probably end up with about 10% against Boris ie half the 20% or so it was polling under May.
As I explained, I was replying to your own comment where you said it would be "10-15% as tonight's polls show", and I was talking about the situation in which the Brexit Party held on to the shares shown in those polls.
Even if you've changed your mind/forgotten what you just said, and you now think Brexit will go down to 10% entirely to the benefit of the Tories - and even if you assume moving towards No Deal will lose the Tories no support at all - that really wouldn't change matters very much. It would put the Tories at 35% and the those not supporting No Deal at 55%. Boris Johnson would have to pray that those 55% weren't inclined to vote tactically against his 35% in significant numbers.
Have to ask - what do those 14.5% Brexit Party voters want if not Boris delivering Brexit - Deal or No Deal?
A fair bit of it is an Anti-Establishment or NOTA vote. Quite a few could switch to the Greens or LibDems on the same basis. That was always true of the 2015 UKIP vote - which is why it did not switch en bloc to the Tories in 2017 as so many predicted.
But I would suggest close to nil will go to Labour or the LibDems - and the bulk of it would be very low-hanging fruit for Boris to pluck...
That was not the case in 2017 when circa 15% of the 2015 UKIP vote switched to Labour.
That was when they were claiming they would implement brexit. It is nailed on at the GE they will have a policy that is remain based.
A significant chunk of UKIP's vote was unrelated to Brexit. Moreover, quite a few Brexit voters were white working class in background who found voting Tory to be beyond the pale. In any forced choice scenario, they would return to Labour.
In 2015 the Tories won Vale of Clwyd thanks to Labour voters voting UKIP, in 2017 the Tories lost it as those voters went back to Labour, at the next general election the Tories could win it again if those voters vote Brexit Party
Paul Flynn died after a very long illness, well over a year, during why he could not fully represent the voters of Newport West. No-one said he had to resign because he could not hold surgeries or attend Parliament. There was on the contrary much sympathy because of his physical illness.
Coming very late to the party, and maybe someone else has made the same point, (and being heartless about it) but perhaps Paul Flynn should have resigned.
Being an MP is not like any other job in the country. You have no job security, you can be out on your ear with as little as six weeks notice and no right of appeal or employment tribunal process or the like to go through. You can't claim unfair dismissal, you are severely restricted to what you can do with your time outside being an MP.
Your job, ultimately, is to represent your constituents. And the minute you find yourself unable, or unwilling to do this you should resign as an MP.
I have huge respect for Flynn, thought he was a good MP and was great to see him as a shadow minister in his eighties. But I recall he was intending to resign about six months before his death, but then never did (perhaps he was then too unwell to do even that, I'm not sure).
Flynn should've resigned six months before his death. O'Mara should probably resign now. There are countless others who should've gone far earlier than they did (I recall the howls on this very site re: Gordon Brown who spent five years writing books and never returning to the Commons between 2010 and 2015).
People may not like them, but Jamie Reed and David Cameron both realised this during the 2015-2017 Parliament and quit, neither wanting to stick around taking cash and doing nowt for it.
Its the same reason above (and again people mention it) why the Speaker of the House should be elected from within MPs and a by-election then held afterwards. The people of Buckinghamshire have a representative in the House, but the lazy git never votes! Even worse, he turns up, shouts one word all day long and never says anything else.
Without named leaders that is as pointless a poll as US polls showing a generic Democrat comfortably beating Trump while say Trump beats Elizabeth Warren.
At the moment Corbyn is Labour leader and Boris comfortably beats him and no named Labour alternative currently beats Boris
Hypotheticals are a broad indication, no more. Would Labour do better under a fantasy unnamed leader? Absolutely. Who is this person? Unfortunately we don't know.
David Miliband is the only potential Labour leader I could see beating Boris at the next general election but he is unavailable and not trusted by Corbynistas who are now the majority of Labour members.
Other than him I would have said Chuka Umunna but Chuka is now LD anyway
Have to ask - what do those 14.5% Brexit Party voters want if not Boris delivering Brexit - Deal or No Deal?
Straight to WTO terms, No Deal Brexit without passing go please and no more immigration either please.
Even with Boris as Tory leader the Brexit Party will still get 10 to 15% as tonight's polls show
If you think the Brexit Party is going to hang on to the kind of vote share it has in these polls, I think you should be very worried indeed about Tory prospects in an election - at least if it becomes clear that Johnson is taking us towards No Deal.
If moving towards No Deal doesn't attract any more Brexit Party supporters, then at best it's going to leave Tory support where it is, but more realistically the Tories are going to lose some support to the Lib Dems and other parties.
That would leave the Tories in the high 20s, Brexit in the low teens, and the other 60% not supporting No Deal. The Tories would need the 60% to be split between the other parties very evenly to stand any chance at all. But if Brexit were a strong enough motivation for people to abandon their traditional allegiance and vote tactically - as I think the Euro elections showed - then they would be in very deep trouble indeed.
Nope, the Brexit Party will probably end up with about 10% against Boris ie half the 20% or so it was polling under May.
As I explained, I was replying to your own comment where you said it would be "10-15% as tonight's polls show", and I was talking about the situation in which the Brexit Party held on to the shares shown in those polls.
Even if you've changed your mind/forgotten what you just said, and you now think Brexit will go down to 10% entirely to the benefit of the Tories - and even if you assume moving towards No Deal will lose the Tories no support at all - that really wouldn't change matters very much. It would put the Tories at 35% and the those not supporting No Deal at 55%. Boris Johnson would have to pray that those 55% weren't inclined to vote tactically against his 35% in significant numbers.
Tories 35% Labour 25% LDs 20% Brexit Party 10% Greens 5% SNP 4% PC 1% gives a comfortable Tory majority and even tactical voting in Remain seats would not be enough to stop that majority given the Tory gains in marginal Labour Leave seats
Here we go. More rallies. More leadership cult stuff. More shouting and cheering the flag or the slogan or the leader. More suspension of every day democratic norms and party basics.
Where will all this end? History says in a very dark place.
I know the Tories aren't as democratic as the other parties when it comes to their internal arrangements, but I am surprised their constitution allows the conference to be sidelined to quite this extent.
Here we go. More rallies. More leadership cult stuff. More shouting and cheering the flag or the slogan or the leader. More suspension of every day democratic norms and party basics.
Where will all this end? History says in a very dark place.
I know the Tories aren't as democratic as the other parties when it comes to their internal arrangements, but I am surprised their constitution allows the conference to be sidelined to quite this extent.
Let's hope not. This is looking like a complete Leave campaign takeover of one of the oldest political parties.
It looks like a 35% strategy for Johnson. Conservative gains are entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party. There is a potential combined pool of 45% of the vote. A proportion of the Brexit Party vote will presumably remain loyal, hence the 35%. There is no movement in or out of the Con+BP block, although there is movement between parties within the opposition block. Whether 35% will get Johnson the convincing win be is looking for would in that case depend entirely on the distribution of votes within the opposition block.
(There are many possibilities of those assumptions being overturned, but I think that's the situation right now).
One factor that we are ignoring is Scotland. May's arse was saved in 2017 by Ruth. If the Tories do not do as well in Scotland compared to 2017, by how much does Boris have to overperform in E&W to win?
At most the Tories probably lose 10 seats in Scotland and keep 3.
That just means 10 extra Labour Leave seats in England and Wales gained to compensate
That leaves you where you are now; minority administration.
2017 gave you 317, minus 10 gives you 307. So you need to pick up another 20 in E&W. What margin over Lab gives you that: 5%? And do today's GB polls give you that in E&W?
(These are genuine questions, btw: I don't know the answer)
If Cummings/Patel/IDS/Mogg/Baker and all the rest of them deliver No Deal, it will be the end of the Conservative Party.
No, only no Brexit at all would have been the end of the Conservative Party with the Brexit Party replacing it
That would as well. But I think in the excited euphoria of The Johnson, party activists and members are forgetting the lesson of Black Wednesday. And that was a teddy bear's picnic compared to No Deal chaos.
Here we go. More rallies. More leadership cult stuff. More shouting and cheering the flag or the slogan or the leader. More suspension of every day democratic norms and party basics.
Where will all this end? History says in a very dark place.
I know the Tories aren't as democratic as the other parties when it comes to their internal arrangements, but I am surprised their constitution allows the conference to be sidelined to quite this extent.
Let's hope not. This is looking like a complete Leave campaign takeover of one of the oldest political parties.
The main topic of conversation on PB after midnight used to be 80s pop music only a few years ago. Why's everyone so serious these days? (Only joking).
Paul Flynn died after a very long illness, well over a year, during why he could not fully represent the voters of Newport West. No-one said he had to resign because he could not hold surgeries or attend Parliament. There was on the contrary much sympathy because of his physical illness.
Coming very late to the party, and maybe someone else has made the same point, (and being heartless about it) but perhaps Paul Flynn should have resigned.
Being an MP is not like any other job in the country. You have no job security, you can be out on your ear with as little as six weeks notice and no right of appeal or employment tribunal process or the like to go through. You can't claim unfair dismissal, you are severely restricted to what you can do with your time outside being an MP.
Your job, ultimately, is to represent your constituents. And the minute you find yourself unable, or unwilling to do this you should resign as an MP.
I have huge respect for Flynn, thought he was a good MP and was great to see him as a shadow minister in his eighties. But I recall he was intending to resign about six months before his death, but then never did (perhaps he was then too unwell to do even that, I'm not sure).
Flynn should've resigned six months before his death. O'Mara should probably resign now. There are countless others who should've gone far earlier than they did (I recall the howls on this very site re: Gordon Brown who spent five years writing books and never returning to the Commons between 2010 and 2015).
People may not like them, but Jamie Reed and David Cameron both realised this during the 2015-2017 Parliament and quit, neither wanting to stick around taking cash and doing nowt for it.
Its the same reason above (and again people mention it) why the Speaker of the House should be elected from within MPs and a by-election then held afterwards. The people of Buckinghamshire have a representative in the House, but the lazy git never votes! Even worse, he turns up, shouts one word all day long and never says anything else.
I think the issue with the MP for Buckingham is that he says rather too much!
Sky News are reporting the YouGov poll, but not the others. Not sure whether that's particularly good journalism on their part:
"'Boris bounce: Conservatives boosted after choosing Boris Johnson as leader, polls suggest Since Boris Johnson became prime minister, the Tories have opened up a poll lead of up to 10 points over Labour."
Sky News are reporting the YouGov poll, but not the others. Not sure whether that's particularly good journalism on their part:
"'Boris bounce: Conservatives boosted after choosing Boris Johnson as leader, polls suggest Since Boris Johnson became prime minister, the Tories have opened up a poll lead of up to 10 points over Labour."
It seems to happen quite a bit, even worse IMO is some of the political podcasts I listen to which almost don't acknowledge non YouGov polls existence sometimes.
I've been half tempted to accuse the BBC of having some kind of link up with YouGov to encourage them to acknowledge other polls more often, although they are far from the worst for it I do expect higher standards.
I reckon Gove's talk of working on the basis of No Deal is just part of a softening up exercise to allow Bozo to bring May's Deal by Another Name (Maydan Brexit) back to Parliament with the hope of ramming it through.
If the `troubled' O'Mara does resign and I think that is still to be seen, this will be a test for the new REMAIN alliance between LDs and Greens and TIG that seems to have snuck under the radar.
Admittedly it is Clegg's old stamping ground but the Greens have really established themselves in Sheffield with the ex-Mayor drawing on the City Council's tree-felling to build support.
Getting a stand-down deal with the Greens will be tricky, if O'Mara does resign....I still think he may change his mind: (good salary, plenty of perks and a nice pension)....I cant see many wanting to employ him in a hurry.
If Cummings/Patel/IDS/Mogg/Baker and all the rest of them deliver No Deal, it will be the end of the Conservative Party.
No, only no Brexit at all would have been the end of the Conservative Party with the Brexit Party replacing it
That would as well. But I think in the excited euphoria of The Johnson, party activists and members are forgetting the lesson of Black Wednesday. And that was a teddy bear's picnic compared to No Deal chaos.
Black Wednesday was not the end of the Conservative Party, the Tories were back in power in 17 years and they faced Blair not Corbyn.
No Brexit would mean the Tories would never be back in power again unless taken over by the Brexit Party
It looks like a 35% strategy for Johnson. Conservative gains are entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party. There is a potential combined pool of 45% of the vote. A proportion of the Brexit Party vote will presumably remain loyal, hence the 35%. There is no movement in or out of the Con+BP block, although there is movement between parties within the opposition block. Whether 35% will get Johnson the convincing win be is looking for would in that case depend entirely on the distribution of votes within the opposition block.
(There are many possibilities of those assumptions being overturned, but I think that's the situation right now).
One factor that we are ignoring is Scotland. May's arse was saved in 2017 by Ruth. If the Tories do not do as well in Scotland compared to 2017, by how much does Boris have to overperform in E&W to win?
At most the Tories probably lose 10 seats in Scotland and keep 3.
That just means 10 extra Labour Leave seats in England and Wales gained to compensate
That leaves you where you are now; minority administration.
2017 gave you 317, minus 10 gives you 307. So you need to pick up another 20 in E&W. What margin over Lab gives you that: 5%? And do today's GB polls give you that in E&W?
(These are genuine questions, btw: I don't know the answer)
If I was Jareds financial adviser I'd be saying don't rush, every day of that gold plated pension accrual is sorting your future out nicely.... Obv there's a tad other issues to reflect on too but....
I don't think he will have built up much of a pension pot after 27 months
But it does feel greedy to carry on taking his salary until September - considering he has already stated that he isn't going to do anything.
Yes, he needs to get his mental health sorted - that is absolutely the right thing to do. But he should just go and do that and not delay his departure
If he go to 3 years, then that's 3/40 of 74k.or circa £5.5K pa index linked ... To buy that with a personal pension he'd need to save circa £200k.
Comments
If they're right, and the other polling firms are wrong it would make all the difference.
The other polls tonight give the Tories bigger leads and put them back at the 30%+ mark.
Thanks to Boris the Tories are now in the lead again, a lead that could expand if the Brexit Party can be squeezed further
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155229265044103169
More seriously, i wouldnt surprise me if it is people who really dont like / trust may and now boris and personally think farage is the man. Like corbyn, there is a cult following for nige.
Yougov was the most accurate pollster in the European Parliament elections (bar Mori) while other pollsters overestimated Labour
That just means 10 extra Labour Leave seats in England and Wales gained to compensate
Even with Boris as Tory leader the Brexit Party will still get 10 to 15% as tonight's polls show
But it does feel greedy to carry on taking his salary until September - considering he has already stated that he isn't going to do anything.
Yes, he needs to get his mental health sorted - that is absolutely the right thing to do. But he should just go and do that and not delay his departure
https://twitter.com/ayeshahazarika/status/1155229662810955777
If moving towards No Deal doesn't attract any more Brexit Party supporters, then at best it's going to leave Tory support where it is, but more realistically the Tories are going to lose some support to the Lib Dems and other parties.
That would leave the Tories in the high 20s, Brexit in the low teens, and the other 60% not supporting No Deal. The Tories would need the 60% to be split between the other parties very evenly to stand any chance at all. But if Brexit were a strong enough motivation for people to abandon their traditional allegiance and vote tactically - as I think the Euro elections showed - then they would be in very deep trouble indeed.
The Tories will be up to about 30 to 35% with the LDs on about 15 to 20% and Labour on about 20 to 25%.
That this enables a Tory majority and a historic 4th consecutive Tory government for only the 2nd time on the last 100 years
At the moment Corbyn is Labour leader and Boris comfortably beats him and no named Labour alternative currently beats Boris
Scotland has its own Parliament for most Scottish domestic issues anyway
Here we go. More rallies. More leadership cult stuff. More shouting and cheering the flag or the slogan or the leader. More suspension of every day democratic norms and party basics.
Where will all this end? History says in a very dark place.
https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1155226064060329984
Even if you've changed your mind/forgotten what you just said, and you now think Brexit will go down to 10% entirely to the benefit of the Tories - and even if you assume moving towards No Deal will lose the Tories no support at all - that really wouldn't change matters very much. It would put the Tories at 35% and the those not supporting No Deal at 55%. Boris Johnson would have to pray that those 55% weren't inclined to vote tactically against his 35% in significant numbers.
Being an MP is not like any other job in the country. You have no job security, you can be out on your ear with as little as six weeks notice and no right of appeal or employment tribunal process or the like to go through. You can't claim unfair dismissal, you are severely restricted to what you can do with your time outside being an MP.
Your job, ultimately, is to represent your constituents. And the minute you find yourself unable, or unwilling to do this you should resign as an MP.
I have huge respect for Flynn, thought he was a good MP and was great to see him as a shadow minister in his eighties. But I recall he was intending to resign about six months before his death, but then never did (perhaps he was then too unwell to do even that, I'm not sure).
Flynn should've resigned six months before his death. O'Mara should probably resign now. There are countless others who should've gone far earlier than they did (I recall the howls on this very site re: Gordon Brown who spent five years writing books and never returning to the Commons between 2010 and 2015).
People may not like them, but Jamie Reed and David Cameron both realised this during the 2015-2017 Parliament and quit, neither wanting to stick around taking cash and doing nowt for it.
Its the same reason above (and again people mention it) why the Speaker of the House should be elected from within MPs and a by-election then held afterwards. The people of Buckinghamshire have a representative in the House, but the lazy git never votes! Even worse, he turns up, shouts one word all day long and never says anything else.
Other than him I would have said Chuka Umunna but Chuka is now LD anyway
2017 gave you 317, minus 10 gives you 307. So you need to pick up another 20 in E&W. What margin over Lab gives you that: 5%? And do today's GB polls give you that in E&W?
(These are genuine questions, btw: I don't know the answer)
"'Boris bounce: Conservatives boosted after choosing Boris Johnson as leader, polls suggest
Since Boris Johnson became prime minister, the Tories have opened up a poll lead of up to 10 points over Labour."
https://news.sky.com/story/boris-bounce-conservatives-boosted-after-electing-boris-johnson-as-leader-polls-suggest-11772028
I've been half tempted to accuse the BBC of having some kind of link up with YouGov to encourage them to acknowledge other polls more often, although they are far from the worst for it I do expect higher standards.
(I need sleep!)
Admittedly it is Clegg's old stamping ground but the Greens have really established themselves in Sheffield with the ex-Mayor drawing on the City Council's tree-felling to build support.
Getting a stand-down deal with the Greens will be tricky, if O'Mara does resign....I still think he may change his mind: (good salary, plenty of perks and a nice pension)....I cant see many wanting to employ him in a hurry.
No Brexit would mean the Tories would never be back in power again unless taken over by the Brexit Party