Well it was late night Brisky that was betting on B&R
With TSE's on the ground reporting I hope to make money in Sheffield.
First tip, lay the Tories, this Remainer central, overflowing with educated professionals, particularly in the health and university sectors, the Tories wouldn't win Sheffield Hallam even if I was the candidate, and I'd be the local candidate.
Before London property prices went through the roof Sheffield Hallam was one of the top five richest constituencies.
Still is, in my view. It would be a mistake to call this place middle class. It's a whole constituency like Radlett.
Radlett station (along with Potters Bar) should be joining The London Oystercard system next month, enabling use of contactless Oystercards and Bank cards to and from anywhere in Greater London.
Hertford North was added in April.
Is that further lout than Chelmsford? Just asking!
Not quite as far. BTW Brentwood, Shenfield, Broxbourne and Hertford East were added in 2013
Well it was late night Brisky that was betting on B&R
With TSE's on the ground reporting I hope to make money in Sheffield.
First tip, lay the Tories, this Remainer central, overflowing with educated professionals, particularly in the health and university sectors, the Tories wouldn't win Sheffield Hallam even if I was the candidate, and I'd be the local candidate.
Before London property prices went through the roof Sheffield Hallam was one of the top five richest constituencies.
I thought rich people voted tory???
Rich public sector people and university people vote heavily Labour. Rich stockbrokers, not so much. The old income=>voting pattern assumptions have broken down.
This is supported by the analysis on Lord Ashcroft's blog. The Tories and BXP are moving down social scale, the Labour party are moving up. The question is where the most votes will be found. I think Boris will appeal more than Corbyn and he might do better.
This was Matthew Parris's point in his, undeservedly, notorious article about Clacton-on-Sea. The Tories are paradoxically and stupidly hitching themselves to a demographic that will only vanish as the country gets more prosperous.
I seem to remember, at the height of Thatcher, a theory that greater prosperity, home ownership and the de-population of industrial areas would mean permanent Conservative governments. They haven't won a majority that could last 5 years since.
A similar thing was said about the abolition of capital controls - that capital flight at the possibility of a Labour government would scare enough voters into voting Tory to prevent it from happening.
And, indeed, that the plan for an introduction of a minimum wage was the final nail in the coffin of any hopes of a Labour government ever again. Fear of the inevitable wage/price spiral and ballooning unemployment would drive a terrified nation into permanent Conservatism. Not to mention widespread predictions of permanent Labour hegemony under Blair. Conventional wisdom, especially over the medium to long term in politics is often utter baloney.
Let us enjoy not Sion Simon but an even better one:
George Osborne.
On hearing of the election of Corbyn, he declared, 'This is proof God is a Consevative.'
Well. He is extremely old, in favour of capital punishment, anti-gay and a staunch supporter of Israel. Just re-joined after a spell in UKIP
Well it was late night Brisky that was betting on B&R
With TSE's on the ground reporting I hope to make money in Sheffield.
First tip, lay the Tories, this Remainer central, overflowing with educated professionals, particularly in the health and university sectors, the Tories wouldn't win Sheffield Hallam even if I was the candidate, and I'd be the local candidate.
Before London property prices went through the roof Sheffield Hallam was one of the top five richest constituencies.
I thought rich people voted tory???
Rich public sector people and university people vote heavily Labour. Rich stockbrokers, not so much. The old income=>voting pattern assumptions have broken down.
This is supported by the analysis on Lord Ashcroft's blog. The Tories and BXP are moving down social scale, the Labour party are moving up. The question is where the most votes will be found. I think Boris will appeal more than Corbyn and he might do better.
This was Matthew Parris's point in his, undeservedly, notorious article about Clacton-on-Sea. The Tories are paradoxically and stupidly hitching themselves to a demographic that will only vanish as the country gets more prosperous.
I seem to remember, at the height of Thatcher, a theory that greater prosperity, home ownership and the de-population of industrial areas would mean permanent Conservative governments. They haven't won a majority that could last 5 years since.
A similar thing was said about the abolition of capital controls - that capital flight at the possibility of a Labour government would scare enough voters into voting Tory to prevent it from happening.
And, indeed, that the plan for an introduction of a minimum wage was the final nail in the coffin of any hopes of a Labour government ever again. Fear of the inevitable wage/price spiral and ballooning unemployment would drive a terrified nation into permanent Conservatism. Not to mention widespread predictions of permanent Labour hegemony under Blair. Conventional wisdom, especially over the medium to long term in politics is often utter baloney.
Amen to that. However, I would settle for a prediction one year in advance. Failing that, I'll bite your hand off for 60 minutes...
'Russia and the UK both tend to sacramentalise the Second World War. Nostalgists in each country hallow a previous age: in Russia a lost Soviet paradise, in Britain an empire. You wouldn’t treat the Victorian age as glorious if you didn’t feel that a significant part of the population living wretched lives was quite compatible with national success. And you wouldn’t invoke the greatness of empire in a debate about the regulation of seabed mining, as Rees-Mogg did, unless you wanted to cast your own overseas ventures as modern versions of that bleak imperial compensation for the Victorian poor, a sense of racial superiority and a grandstanding on ‘our’ daring land grabs:
"That is an exciting way of looking at it: to adopt a real free-market approach, which allows companies to go out to prospect, as they did in California in the 19th century, and as Cecil Rhodes did when he went to South Africa. He found great acres of space and he made a claim and he dug and he dug and he dug, and he found gold, diamonds and platinum, and he put them into a great company, and he made millions – in modern money, billions – of pounds by doing that. That was not through state regulation, not through international bodies, not through the United Nations reaching an agreement to say, ‘You may do this,’ or ‘You may do that,’ but by enterprise, hard work and energy – by all those great British virtues of which we should be so proud. Why not say that of the oceans?"'
For all the furore and pomp, the Conservatives have struggled up to 30%. That might be enough in some polls but this will be the best it gets for Boris Johnson. This week he's new, fresh and different but from now on he starts looking familiar and there will be a limit to the theatricals and it'll be time to start doing the actual delivery.
The other aspect is the way this will appear to many as a change of Government and it is strictly speaking the fifth Government in nine years but this change has been so radical as to appear to the uninitiated as a complete upheaval and that will be a factor in the changes of support.
We all know Johnson has made several hostages to fortune this week including his Cabinet appointments and the commitment to leave the EU whatever and however on 31/10. What we don't of course know is what proportion of the 30% Conservative vote will remain IF we leave without a Deal.
We do not speak of that article. It is nasty and hurts our insides.
Does it? I cannot recall that article being posted on PB.
It has never been posted here and I did not read it, nor did I have to see a therapist soon after. It does not exist, neither in reality nor in potentia.
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
For all the furore and pomp, the Conservatives have struggled up to 30%. That might be enough in some polls but this will be the best it gets for Boris Johnson. This week he's new, fresh and different but from now on he starts looking familiar and there will be a limit to the theatricals and it'll be time to start doing the actual delivery.
The other aspect is the way this will appear to many as a change of Government and it is strictly speaking the fifth Government in nine years but this change has been so radical as to appear to the uninitiated as a complete upheaval and that will be a factor in the changes of support.
We all know Johnson has made several hostages to fortune this week including his Cabinet appointments and the commitment to leave the EU whatever and however on 31/10. What we don't of course know is what proportion of the 30% Conservative vote will remain IF we leave without a Deal.
You really think 30% is "as good as it gets"? I think its a decent starting point under the circumstances, and expect we will get to 40% within a year.
How about we split the difference at a limited timescale? I will offer you a £20 bet [to charity or to yourself however you'd prefer] that Tories under Boris get at least 35% in a survey before the end of the year, or at the next General Election if that comes sooner. What do you say?
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
For all the furore and pomp, the Conservatives have struggled up to 30%. That might be enough in some polls but this will be the best it gets for Boris Johnson. This week he's new, fresh and different but from now on he starts looking familiar and there will be a limit to the theatricals and it'll be time to start doing the actual delivery.
The other aspect is the way this will appear to many as a change of Government and it is strictly speaking the fifth Government in nine years but this change has been so radical as to appear to the uninitiated as a complete upheaval and that will be a factor in the changes of support.
We all know Johnson has made several hostages to fortune this week including his Cabinet appointments and the commitment to leave the EU whatever and however on 31/10. What we don't of course know is what proportion of the 30% Conservative vote will remain IF we leave without a Deal.
Or even if we look like dealing without a deal. Johnson is still claiming he's going to get a deal, isn't he?
Unless the EU does move, then he's not going to be able to maintain that pretence for very long. And then people are bound to start thinking about what No Deal really means.
A reversion towards the May local elections result.
Conservatives and Labour are likely to rise together and fall together.
Quite incredible. Almost by magic, Labour sympathisers suddenly switch from LD and Greens just like they did in 2017 GE at the prospect of Tory surge.
Lib Dems up - Green switch to labour
+1 the week the Lib Dems get their new leader, seems a bit low.
I was countering the argument that lib dem and green voters return to labour
I am treating all polls with caution as this huge change in personal and Boris needs time to stabilise in the polls
I am obviously satisfied with the +10 in Deltapoll for Boris but lets not get carried away
We have to wonder as to what Labour need to do to reduce their vote. They've tried everything, but stubbornly 25% or so of people think that they're still worth voting for. I think it has to be doing something nasty to kittens next, or compulsory Abbott maths for all.
If Labour had gone the other way and tried to bolster their support would the numbers have been equally static?
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
I find it astounding that 30%, 32%, or whatever, is now seen as some sign of success, when May got 42% in 2017.
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
I find it astounding that 30%, 32%, or whatever, is now seen as some sign of success, when May got 42% in 2017.
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
That is splitting hairs.
I often do not agree with HYUFD but give him credit, he predicted a 32% figure and has seen 30% within MOE
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
I find it astounding that 30%, 32%, or whatever, is now seen as some sign of success, when May got 42% in 2017.
Neither poll gives the Tories and their sidekicks a majority. In fact, its worse than now.
A reversion towards the May local elections result.
Conservatives and Labour are likely to rise together and fall together.
Quite incredible. Almost by magic, Labour sympathisers suddenly switch from LD and Greens just like they did in 2017 GE at the prospect of Tory surge.
Lib Dems up - Green switch to labour
+1 the week the Lib Dems get their new leader, seems a bit low.
I was countering the argument that lib dem and green voters return to labour
I am treating all polls with caution as this huge change in personal and Boris needs time to stabilise in the polls
I am obviously satisfied with the +10 in Deltapoll for Boris but lets not get carried away
We have to wonder as to what Labour need to do to reduce their vote. They've tried everything, but stubbornly 25% or so of people think that they're still worth voting for. I think it has to be doing something nasty to kittens next, or compulsory Abbott maths for all.
If Labour had gone the other way and tried to bolster their support would the numbers have been equally static?
Although you’ve framed it humorously, there is a serious question in there. The Labour vote is “sticky” and bloody hard to push down, but equally, it seems just as likely that it’ll be enormously difficult to push it above say 30%. You cannot win FPTP elections on 30%.
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
I find it astounding that 30%, 32%, or whatever, is now seen as some sign of success, when May got 42% in 2017.
As the Norwich dating agency said "it's all relative".
Cameron's 37% was a huge triumph in 2015 while May's 42% was an unmitigated disaster in 2017.
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
I find it astounding that 30%, 32%, or whatever, is now seen as some sign of success, when May got 42% in 2017.
As the Norwich dating agency said "it's all relative".
Cameron's 37% was a huge triumph in 2015 while May's 42% was an unmitigated disaster in 2017.
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
I find it astounding that 30%, 32%, or whatever, is now seen as some sign of success, when May got 42% in 2017.
Its a different era yo
Or is it? Will the Tories believe the polls point to an election increasing their majority in Parliament to deal with Brexit and come up short again?
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
I find it astounding that 30%, 32%, or whatever, is now seen as some sign of success, when May got 42% in 2017.
A reversion towards the May local elections result.
Conservatives and Labour are likely to rise together and fall together.
Quite incredible. Almost by magic, Labour sympathisers suddenly switch from LD and Greens just like they did in 2017 GE at the prospect of Tory surge.
Lib Dems up - Green switch to labour
+1 the week the Lib Dems get their new leader, seems a bit low.
I was countering the argument that lib dem and green voters return to labour
I am treating all polls with caution as this huge change in personal and Boris needs time to stabilise in the polls
I am obviously satisfied with the +10 in Deltapoll for Boris but lets not get carried away
We have to wonder as to what Labour need to do to reduce their vote. They've tried everything, but stubbornly 25% or so of people think that they're still worth voting for. I think it has to be doing something nasty to kittens next, or compulsory Abbott maths for all.
If Labour had gone the other way and tried to bolster their support would the numbers have been equally static?
Although you’ve framed it humorously, there is a serious question in there. The Labour vote is “sticky” and bloody hard to push down, but equally, it seems just as likely that it’ll be enormously difficult to push it above say 30%. You cannot win FPTP elections on 30%.
That's what they said in 2017. And within weeks, 25% became 40%.
A reversion towards the May local elections result.
Conservatives and Labour are likely to rise together and fall together.
Yes. That is the pattern we have been seeing since the March 29 deadline was missed. The Tory share cratered then. Labour following a month later. That poll does not look like a Swinson tide sweeping the nation, unlike here on PB. +1 must be disappointing given the new leader publicity.
Nonetheless, Swinson must be regarded as a lucky general to have two winnable by-elections as new leader. Next step is to win them.
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
I find it astounding that 30%, 32%, or whatever, is now seen as some sign of success, when May got 42% in 2017.
Probably has something with May getting 9% in 2019.
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
I find it astounding that 30%, 32%, or whatever, is now seen as some sign of success, when May got 42% in 2017.
Its a different era yo
Or is it? Will the Tories believe the polls point to an election increasing their majority in Parliament to deal with Brexit and come up short again?
maybe...just saying its likely both main parties vote shares will be down on 2017, probably a lot
As I’ve been saying, the entire Johnson strategy is dependent on the continuing selfish stupidity of Labour members!
It's dependent on Labour ineptitude, and on all the other parties maintaining their current positions. We don't know what the other parties will offer to tempt the voters.
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
I find it astounding that 30%, 32%, or whatever, is now seen as some sign of success, when May got 42% in 2017.
Neither poll gives the Tories and their sidekicks a majority. In fact, its worse than now.
Deltapoll thru Flavible gives them 322, which is better than Con current seats.
If the best tories can get 30% they are stuffed. Bozza is going to have to promise to spend a shit tonne more money and get a brexit....to head off the labour and brexit party populist manifestos (one aimed at remainers and the other leavers)
That is a good poll for Labour, with all the focus been on PM Johnson and his spending pledges this week.
Um. That was your takeaway?
Yes , what was yours ?
That the thesis predicted by @HYUFD et al was borne out by the incoming data and it is time (arguably, overdue) to give it credence.
I agreed with HYUFD regarding Boris. He would win a GE against Corbyn. However the poll was good for Labour after a week of wall to wall, coverage of Johnson PM .With no opposition , which will not happen in the election campaign .
Something for nearly everyone there - Boris gets his bounce, Labour is well clear of the LDs, and the LDs are up. Farage knows his chances depend on Brexit not working. But considering the week we've had, I'm reasonably happy from the Labour side - what is emerging there is polarisation: Brexit voters rallying to Boris, and anti-Brexit voters saying "I don't care what Corbyn's like, we've got to stop Boris".
We'll see if Radnor gives the Libdems a more impressive bounce, though.
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
Tories on 30% for the first time in months not disappointing at all
Oh stop messing around With these volatile polls the lot of you! Baxtering anything never changed the world.
We knew Tory press would go loopy, even if Boris was a dud. He certainly was that dud in the commons and everywhere this week, all bluster and bollocks. bizarre bollocks at times, channeling Churchill and achieving Morecambe - when asked a serious question about his policy, what exactly is your Irish border solution, or, we already pay £50bn plus a year in interest payments who pays for all these giveaway cheques you are writing, the answer is bluster just don’t be gloomster talking this great country down!!! What do we say to that! Receptaculum purgamentorum! Is what we say.
But no, BoJo, it’s not talking a country down, to probe realities of policy that has been and really will take this great country down.
The credibility loss going on here belongs to the media and his supporters telling us how brilliant he is.
in the commons (as typical these days) Corbyn was even worse than usual, staccatoed and shouty, mangling so many words its hard keeping pace with what the right word should have been and the point he was making. Unfortunately, on reflection I go along with those posting here who don’t think Swinson is ready, doesn't have what hopefully comes will a few more years of experience, the reassuring gravitas of Clegg and Vince. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Satirists dress Swinson as a schoolgirl with a lollipop.
Yes there are politicians with promise, like Raab and Swinson. Boris doesn’t have the seriousness about him to convert you to what he is saying. So let’s be honest, at this moment in time UK does not a have a prime minister, does not have a credible leader anywhere to be seen. It goes in cycles. At the bottom of cycle you don’t even qualify for world cups let alone win them. this will convince you (though some of you so partisan and lost in the moment you won’t admit it) benchmark the HoC and front benches this week, with mid nineties, Major, Clarke, Hurd, Hestletine, Rifkind, Blair, Brown, Prescott, Cook, Blunkett, Ashdown, Campbell, Kennedy.
At the bottom of the cycle, the crassamentum of British politics, and this a key moment in our nations history.
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
I find it astounding that 30%, 32%, or whatever, is now seen as some sign of success, when May got 42% in 2017.
Its a different era yo
I can't recollect a new PM taking over with so much hostility from the press and commentators.
In this regard the bounce, if it is real and there is a trend in the polls is good for BJ against the background and acceptance of his ascent to the top.
That is a good poll for Labour, with all the focus been on PM Johnson and his spending pledges this week.
Um. That was your takeaway?
Yes , what was yours ?
That the thesis predicted by @HYUFD et al was borne out by the incoming data and it is time (arguably, overdue) to give it credence.
I agreed with HYUFD regarding Boris. He would win a GE against Corbyn. However the poll was good for Labour after a week of wall to wall, coverage of Johnson PM .With no opposition , which will not happen in the election campaign .
Let us not forget that a lot of the publicity was negative. We've had people like Richard Nabavi publicly metaphorically cutting their membership cards, we've had acres of press coverage about Hammond, Gauke etc resigning. But the bounce is all in one direction, as expected.
Shame that many of the postal ballots for B&R by election will have been filled in while May was PM still.
If the best tories can get 30% they are stuffed. Bozza is going to have to promise to spend a shit tonne more money and get a brexit....to head off the labour and brexit party populist manifestos (one aimed at remainers and the other leavers)
Surely he will, get Brexit. He said do or die.Therfore he has no option.
For Bozo fans don’t despair I’m sure the Telegraph will come up with a Bozo bounce headline for the weekend .
I’d be a bit surprised if he didn’t see a poll boost given the fawning media coverage .
It's too early to tell if he has a polling boost yet - remember most people don't consume news first hand, it is post event coverage upon which switchers normally rely.
Interesting that BXP still showing decent figures....i would expect there to be some additional squeeze of that over the next few weeks- primarily to Tory benefit
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
I find it astounding that 30%, 32%, or whatever, is now seen as some sign of success, when May got 42% in 2017.
Neither poll gives the Tories and their sidekicks a majority. In fact, its worse than now.
Deltapoll thru Flavible gives them 322, which is better than Con current seats.
I wonder what Scotland split they are assuming. On these numbers they will lose seats to the SNP.
A reversion towards the May local elections result.
Conservatives and Labour are likely to rise together and fall together.
Quite incredible. Almost by magic, Labour sympathisers suddenly switch from LD and Greens just like they did in 2017 GE at the prospect of Tory surge.
Lib Dems up - Green switch to labour
+1 the week the Lib Dems get their new leader, seems a bit low.
I was countering the argument that lib dem and green voters return to labour
I am treating all polls with caution as this huge change in personal and Boris needs time to stabilise in the polls
I am obviously satisfied with the +10 in Deltapoll for Boris but lets not get carried away
We have to wonder as to what Labour need to do to reduce their vote. They've tried everything, but stubbornly 25% or so of people think that they're still worth voting for. I think it has to be doing something nasty to kittens next, or compulsory Abbott maths for all.
If Labour had gone the other way and tried to bolster their support would the numbers have been equally static?
Although you’ve framed it humorously, there is a serious question in there. The Labour vote is “sticky” and bloody hard to push down, but equally, it seems just as likely that it’ll be enormously difficult to push it above say 30%. You cannot win FPTP elections on 30%.
Both Labour and the Tories benefit from unthinking voters in huge numbers.
I'm always suspicious of polls which say "If this factor was different, what would you do then?" because they nudge the respondent into varying the answer, without knowing what the alternative would actually be. But that 5 point difference in the Lab/LD vote is where an election will be fought, with some of it swinging tactically.
I We really shouldn't have MPs that are elected because of the party they represent but had they stood alone would have received zero votes.
Let’s be honest, a large chunk of the roughly 450 MPs in safe seats all fall into this category.
That's largely the fault of the voters, not the hapless members.
If people choose to be so disengaged from politics that they don't even know who their local MP is, let alone where they stand on key issues, they probably don't deserve particularly good representation.
Just watch a politics round in an episode of Pointless or Tenable etc. to see how utterly clueless about it most of the population is. People think Clement Attlee was a Conservative, Heath directly preceded Thatcher as PM, Tony Blair was MP for Huntingdon, Benjamin Franklin was a POTUS etc. etc.
I'm sure we compare badly with almost every other Western democracy in this regard.
It would have been a big surprise if this didn’t happen given the non stop coverage . Indeed it’s like he’s got a free ride for the next month with his policy announcements.
Oh stop messing around With these volatile polls the lot of you! Baxtering anything never changed the world.
We knew Tory press would go loopy, even if Boris was a dud. He certainly was that dud in the commons and everywhere this week, all bluster and bollocks. bizarre bollocks at times, channeling Churchill and achieving Morecambe - when asked a serious question about his policy, what exactly is your Irish border solution, or, we already pay £50bn plus a year in interest payments who pays for all these giveaway cheques you are writing, the answer is bluster just don’t be gloomster talking this great country down!!! What do we say to that! Receptaculum purgamentorum! Is what we say.
But no, BoJo, it’s not talking a country down, to probe realities of policy that has been and really will take this great country down.
The credibility loss going on here belongs to the media and his supporters telling us how brilliant he is.
in the commons (as typical these days) Corbyn was even worse than usual, staccatoed and shouty, mangling so many words its hard keeping pace with what the right word should have been and the point he was making. Unfortunately, on reflection I go along with those posting here who don’t think Swinson is ready, doesn't have what hopefully comes will a few more years of experience, the reassuring gravitas of Clegg and Vince. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Satirists dress Swinson as a schoolgirl with a lollipop.
Yes there are politicians with promise, like Raab and Swinson. Boris doesn’t have the seriousness about him to convert you to what he is saying. So let’s be honest, at this moment in time UK does not a have a prime minister, does not have a credible leader anywhere to be seen. It goes in cycles. At the bottom of cycle you don’t even qualify for world cups let alone win them. this will convince you (though some of you so partisan and lost in the moment you won’t admit it) benchmark the HoC and front benches this week, with mid nineties, Major, Clarke, Hurd, Hestletine, Rifkind, Blair, Brown, Prescott, Cook, Blunkett, Ashdown, Campbell, Kennedy.
At the bottom of the cycle, the crassamentum of British politics, and this a key moment in our nations history.
Glad to see that folk are beginning to understand the Jo Swinson Vicky Pollard problem.
That is a good poll for Labour, with all the focus been on PM Johnson and his spending pledges this week.
Um. That was your takeaway?
Yes , what was yours ?
That the thesis predicted by @HYUFD et al was borne out by the incoming data and it is time (arguably, overdue) to give it credence.
I agreed with HYUFD regarding Boris. He would win a GE against Corbyn. However the poll was good for Labour after a week of wall to wall, coverage of Johnson PM .With no opposition , which will not happen in the election campaign .
Let us not forget that a lot of the publicity was negative. We've had people like Richard Nabavi publicly metaphorically cutting their membership cards, we've had acres of press coverage about Hammond, Gauke etc resigning. But the bounce is all in one direction, as expected.
Shame that many of the postal ballots for B&R by election will have been filled in while May was PM still.
Yes agreed, I am sure the conservatives would have done better in the B &R by election .If they had been filled in after Boris Johnson became PM. Nevertheless it might be closer after this week.
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
Tories on 30% for the first time in months not disappointing at all
Congratulations HYUFD.
You called Boris correctly and the 31% is just 1% below your prediction
We may not agree on everything but credit where it is due
The poll HYUFD kept on posting during the Tory leadership election had the hypothetical Boris-led Conservatives on 32%, so both these polls are disappointing for them.
Tories on 30% for the first time in months not disappointing at all
Congratulations HYUFD.
You called Boris correctly and the 31% is just 1% below your prediction
We may not agree on everything but credit where it is due
Indeed, I don't often agree with HYUFD but he got that virtually spot on.
It will amaze me if 32% isn't hit within the next week or two too.
Comments
Flavible: Con 289, Lab 246, LD 41, SNP 51, BXP 1
Baxter: Con 301, Lab 253, LD 37, SNP 37, BXP 1
https://flavible.com
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
Just re-joined after a spell in UKIP
http://ow.ly/d/8loA
'Russia and the UK both tend to sacramentalise the Second World War. Nostalgists in each country hallow a previous age: in Russia a lost Soviet paradise, in Britain an empire. You wouldn’t treat the Victorian age as glorious if you didn’t feel that a significant part of the population living wretched lives was quite compatible with national success. And you wouldn’t invoke the greatness of empire in a debate about the regulation of seabed mining, as Rees-Mogg did, unless you wanted to cast your own overseas ventures as modern versions of that bleak imperial compensation for the Victorian poor, a sense of racial superiority and a grandstanding on ‘our’ daring land grabs:
"That is an exciting way of looking at it: to adopt a real free-market approach, which allows companies to go out to prospect, as they did in California in the 19th century, and as Cecil Rhodes did when he went to South Africa. He found great acres of space and he made a claim and he dug and he dug and he dug, and he found gold, diamonds and platinum, and he put them into a great company, and he made millions – in modern money, billions – of pounds by doing that. That was not through state regulation, not through international bodies, not through the United Nations reaching an agreement to say, ‘You may do this,’ or ‘You may do that,’ but by enterprise, hard work and energy – by all those great British virtues of which we should be so proud. Why not say that of the oceans?"'
Flavible: Con 309, Lab 216, LD 50, SNP 51, BXP 1
Baxter: Con 322, Lab 224, LD 46, SNP 36, BXP 1
https://flavible.com
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
I suppose a wing collar might not come across very clearly as an emoji.
I am treating all polls with caution as this huge change in personal and Boris needs time to stabilise in the polls
I am obviously satisfied with the +10 in Deltapoll for Boris but lets not get carried away
For all the furore and pomp, the Conservatives have struggled up to 30%. That might be enough in some polls but this will be the best it gets for Boris Johnson. This week he's new, fresh and different but from now on he starts looking familiar and there will be a limit to the theatricals and it'll be time to start doing the actual delivery.
The other aspect is the way this will appear to many as a change of Government and it is strictly speaking the fifth Government in nine years but this change has been so radical as to appear to the uninitiated as a complete upheaval and that will be a factor in the changes of support.
We all know Johnson has made several hostages to fortune this week including his Cabinet appointments and the commitment to leave the EU whatever and however on 31/10. What we don't of course know is what proportion of the 30% Conservative vote will remain IF we leave without a Deal.
I have stated for weeks I want a deal and if we no deal I will resign
To quote TM 'nothing has changed'
But you do sound a bit rattled
How about we split the difference at a limited timescale? I will offer you a £20 bet [to charity or to yourself however you'd prefer] that Tories under Boris get at least 35% in a survey before the end of the year, or at the next General Election if that comes sooner. What do you say?
Unless the EU does move, then he's not going to be able to maintain that pretence for very long. And then people are bound to start thinking about what No Deal really means.
If Labour had gone the other way and tried to bolster their support would the numbers have been equally static?
I often do not agree with HYUFD but give him credit, he predicted a 32% figure and has seen 30% within MOE
Cameron's 37% was a huge triumph in 2015 while May's 42% was an unmitigated disaster in 2017.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/26/opinion/trump-nadia-murad-meeting.html
He would win a GE against Corbyn.
However the poll was good for Labour after a week of wall to wall, coverage of Johnson PM .With no opposition , which will not happen in the election campaign .
Gordo didn't reveal the full extent of his awfulness till after he got the gig
We'll see if Radnor gives the Libdems a more impressive bounce, though.
YouGov will give a Tory majority. No change there !
We knew Tory press would go loopy, even if Boris was a dud. He certainly was that dud in the commons and everywhere this week, all bluster and bollocks. bizarre bollocks at times, channeling Churchill and achieving Morecambe - when asked a serious question about his policy, what exactly is your Irish border solution, or, we already pay £50bn plus a year in interest payments who pays for all these giveaway cheques you are writing, the answer is bluster just don’t be gloomster talking this great country down!!!
What do we say to that! Receptaculum purgamentorum! Is what we say.
But no, BoJo, it’s not talking a country down, to probe realities of policy that has been and really will take this great country down.
The credibility loss going on here belongs to the media and his supporters telling us how brilliant he is.
in the commons (as typical these days) Corbyn was even worse than usual, staccatoed and shouty, mangling so many words its hard keeping pace with what the right word should have been and the point he was making. Unfortunately, on reflection I go along with those posting here who don’t think Swinson is ready, doesn't have what hopefully comes will a few more years of experience, the reassuring gravitas of Clegg and Vince. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Satirists dress Swinson as a schoolgirl with a lollipop.
Yes there are politicians with promise, like Raab and Swinson. Boris doesn’t have the seriousness about him to convert you to what he is saying. So let’s be honest, at this moment in time UK does not a have a prime minister, does not have a credible leader anywhere to be seen. It goes in cycles. At the bottom of cycle you don’t even qualify for world cups let alone win them. this will convince you (though some of you so partisan and lost in the moment you won’t admit it) benchmark the HoC and front benches this week, with mid nineties, Major, Clarke, Hurd, Hestletine, Rifkind, Blair, Brown, Prescott, Cook, Blunkett, Ashdown, Campbell, Kennedy.
At the bottom of the cycle, the crassamentum of British politics, and this a key moment in our nations history.
In this regard the bounce, if it is real and there is a trend in the polls is good for BJ against the background and acceptance of his ascent to the top.
Shame that many of the postal ballots for B&R by election will have been filled in while May was PM still.
He said do or die.Therfore he has no option.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1155213720299216896?s=20
Con 357
Lab 184
LD 51
Green 1
SNP 35
PC 4
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=21&LIB=20&Brexit=13&Green=9&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Con +7
Lab +3
LD +1
BRX -7
Greens -3
If people choose to be so disengaged from politics that they don't even know who their local MP is, let alone where they stand on key issues, they probably don't deserve particularly good representation.
Just watch a politics round in an episode of Pointless or Tenable etc. to see how utterly clueless about it most of the population is. People think Clement Attlee was a Conservative, Heath directly preceded Thatcher as PM, Tony Blair was MP for Huntingdon, Benjamin Franklin was a POTUS etc. etc.
I'm sure we compare badly with almost every other Western democracy in this regard.
It would have been a big surprise if this didn’t happen given the non stop coverage . Indeed it’s like he’s got a free ride for the next month with his policy announcements.
Jo SwinsonVicky Pollard problem.Nevertheless it might be closer after this week.
You called Boris correctly and the 31% is just 1% below your prediction
We may not agree on everything but credit where it is due
Flavible: Con 335, Lab 181, LD 60, SNP 49, BXP 2(!)
Baxter: Con 358, Lab 183, LD 51, SNP 35, BXP 0
https://flavible.com
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
It will amaze me if 32% isn't hit within the next week or two too.