politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three paths to instability
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three paths to instability
We now have the archetypal scenario of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. Boris Johnson has now made so many “October 31 unless the backstop gets it” speeches that it’s time to believe him: if he rowed back from it now, Farage would eat him alive, and the ERG would consume the remains. The EU has said so often that they will not alter, let alone remove, the backstop that it is inconceivable that they will even contemplate it.
Comments
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Plausibleish.0
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Regarding the slightly foolish discussion on electric aircraft FPT, they are practicable only for short haul well into the foreseeable future.
Germany already has an interesting aerial taxi prototype, which will be a commercial proposition with a relatively small improvement in battery energy density.
Zero carbon long haul will rely on fuels manufactured via renewables, and will take a good couple of decades.1 -
I think that's rather negative.
What about scenario 1a.
Scenario 1a is a Boris triumph. Swept back with a majority of 100 fervent Brexiteers, he leads us out of the EU with minimal arrangements to prevent total chaos. People muddle through – we don’t run out of food and medicine, but trade struggles to adapt[s], the pound slides, investment slumps rebounds following the end of uncertainy and due to the lower pound and the trade talks inch forward over years. After years of fire-fighting, some sort of stability is achieved, but we are in recession and the Tories lose the following election to whoever has emerged standing from the Opposition bunfight.0 -
Bbc confirming that jared omara is stepping down...good riddance the man who calls himself thrush.0
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Reposting from the previous thread. Likely by-election in Sheffield Hallam (though dependent on O'Mara sticking by his comments, so don't take as gospel).
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/11550965832827904010 -
Sheffield Hallam MP to resign in September according to BBC text.
Really he should resign now to ensure a by election in september.0 -
sorry to interrupt - I will read thread
But if you're quick you can get 2.5/1 on Hamilton for pole for German grand prix - I'm on it0 -
FPT
Suffrage was universally different in the past, yes that is true for all parts of the union and across the globe. However those who had suffrage elected MPs, something we will not get to do in the backstop.SouthamObserver said:
The European Parliament will not be setting our laws. The European Parliament has no lawmaking powers. The European Parliament is a ratifying body.Philip_Thompson said:The 19th century was undemocratic for all women and all poor people, not just the Irish.
In 2024 nobody at all in this country will be able to vote to the European Parliament setting our laws. That is unprecedented in these isles since the Acts of Union.
Under a backstop scenario, what would happen is that in limited areas the UK would have to implement laws agreed by the Council of Ministers and ratified by MEPs. Those laws will not cover all aspects of our lives - in fact they would make very little difference to the way we lead them. Our criminal law would be almost entirely unaffected, for example.
Now, compare that to how the UK Parliament - which most Irish people for most of the course of Irish history had no opportunity to elect - legislated in ways that affected the lives of ordinary Irish men and women.
Furthermore two wrongs don't make a right. It was wrong that suffrage was denied to all (not just Irish) non-homeowners in the past. It was wrong that suffrage was denied to all (not just Irish) women in the past.
It is wrong to deny suffrage to all UK non-homowners, women and homeowning men too in the future if we enter the backstop.
Hard fought democratic freedoms should be maintained for everyone. No laws without representation.1 -
The weird thing about this that there are basically no good scenarios in there for Labour, whereas if Jeremy Corbyn stopped being leader there would be several. And yet Labour members still somehow seem to think it's a good idea for Jeremy Corybn to carry on being their leader.
I think you have to wonder if the sheer pressure of the political logic will suddenly make the tectonic plates move. What's keeping Corbyn in place is tribal identification but this is basically a schelling point: Jeremy Corbyn has to be protected by the tribe, because Jeremy Corbyn is the representative of the tribe, and he's representing the tribe because they're protecting him. There's nothing keeping the tribe keeping him in place except inertia.0 -
Good call.JBriskinindyref2 said:sorry to interrupt - I will read thread
But if you're quick you can get 2.5/1 on Hamilton for pole for German grand prix - I'm on it
Ferrari do it again...0 -
Boris is running around the country to get as big a bounce as possible. If he succeeds and the polls in late Sept, early Oct are Torys 35% ish and Lib and Lab 20% ish, it will be a very brave Labour party that initiates any action that could result in a snap GE.
But the instability will still be there because if Boris wants a GE to take advantage, how does he engineer one? So we could have a lame duck Govt for a period of time.
On the business investment we know that it has been delayed because of the uncertainty, so a change of tax laws to initiate could be done very simply and quickly.0 -
Good thread header.
I hope for a 2A!
Brexit will just hinder the economy and Immigration will continue from the rest of the world instead of Europe. Pointless.0 -
To me it is simpler. Boris will come back with a fig leaf provided by the EU and tell the Commons that they either vote for that deal or accept no deal. It gets approved but Parliament is annoyed and a VoNC follows in early course. There is a GE which Boris either wins or loses. My guess is the former unless Labour get rid of Corbyn.0
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There's a bit more to it than that. Corbynistas are confident that Corbyn will win the next election for them, because they support him and because everyone they know hates the Tories so surely he will win?edmundintokyo said:The weird thing about this that there are basically no good scenarios in there for Labour, whereas if Jeremy Corbyn stopped being leader there would be several. And yet Labour members still somehow seem to think it's a good idea for Jeremy Corybn to carry on being their leader.
I think you have to wonder if the sheer pressure of the political logic will suddenly create an earthquake. What's keeping Corbyn in place is tribal identification but this is basically a schelling point: Jeremy Corbyn has to be protected bt the tribe, because Jeremy Corbyn is the representative of the tribe, and he's representing the tribe because they're protecting him. There's nothing keeping the tribe keeping him in place except inertia.
And they take 2017 as evidence to support that. He turned around a 24% deficit to a 2% deficit in 4 weeks. What could he do starting at about parity? Corbyn landslide here we come.
Given they've drank that kool-aid I don't think any evidence is going to shake that. Maybe double-digit to 20% poll leads for the Tories once more but even then they'll dismiss it as a bounce like May got that isn't real.0 -
O/t does anyone understand why Ferrari are determined to make this the dullest season for years?0
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The nation is not ready for Boris without a figleaf, that’s for sure.DavidL said:To me it is simpler. Boris will come back with a fig leaf provided by the EU and tell the Commons that they either vote for that deal or accept no deal. It gets approved but Parliament is annoyed and a VoNC follows in early course. There is a GE which Boris either wins or loses. My guess is the former unless Labour get rid of Corbyn.
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Tax changes don't really override uncertainty when it comes to business investment. Tax only takes effect when you are making a profit - uncertainty means profits are still uncertain..ralphmalph said:Boris is running around the country to get as big a bounce as possible. If he succeeds and the polls in late Sept, early Oct are Torys 35% ish and Lib and Lab 20% ish, it will be a very brave Labour party that initiates any action that could result in a snap GE.
But the instability will still be there because if Boris wants a GE to take advantage, how does he engineer one? So we could have a lame duck Govt for a period of time.
On the business investment we know that it has been delayed because of the uncertainty, so a change of tax laws to initiate could be done very simply and quickly.0 -
Unless Labour have a coronation to replace Corbyn they are stuck with him IMO. Labour will be at a disadvantage to put it mildly if they go into a GE with an interim leader...edmundintokyo said:The weird thing about this that there are basically no good scenarios in there for Labour, whereas if Jeremy Corbyn stopped being leader there would be several. And yet Labour members still somehow seem to think it's a good idea for Jeremy Corybn to carry on being their leader.
I think you have to wonder if the sheer pressure of the political logic will suddenly make the tectonic plates move. What's keeping Corbyn in place is tribal identification but this is basically a schelling point: Jeremy Corbyn has to be protected by the tribe, because Jeremy Corbyn is the representative of the tribe, and he's representing the tribe because they're protecting him. There's nothing keeping the tribe keeping him in place except inertia.0 -
These truths we hold to be self evident.Nigelb said:
The nation is not ready for Boris without a figleaf, that’s for sure.DavidL said:To me it is simpler. Boris will come back with a fig leaf provided by the EU and tell the Commons that they either vote for that deal or accept no deal. It gets approved but Parliament is annoyed and a VoNC follows in early course. There is a GE which Boris either wins or loses. My guess is the former unless Labour get rid of Corbyn.
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Johnson's entire strategy is predicated on the blind stupidity of Labour members. Their reaction to the loss of Sheffield Hallam will be fascinating.edmundintokyo said:The weird thing about this that there are basically no good scenarios in there for Labour, whereas if Jeremy Corbyn stopped being leader there would be several. And yet Labour members still somehow seem to think it's a good idea for Jeremy Corybn to carry on being their leader.
I think you have to wonder if the sheer pressure of the political logic will suddenly make the tectonic plates move. What's keeping Corbyn in place is tribal identification but this is basically a schelling point: Jeremy Corbyn has to be protected by the tribe, because Jeremy Corbyn is the representative of the tribe, and he's representing the tribe because they're protecting him. There's nothing keeping the tribe keeping him in place except inertia.
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I agree.DavidL said:To me it is simpler. Boris will come back with a fig leaf provided by the EU and tell the Commons that they either vote for that deal or accept no deal. It gets approved but Parliament is annoyed and a VoNC follows in early course. There is a GE which Boris either wins or loses. My guess is the former unless Labour get rid of Corbyn.
If I had to bet it is scenario 1.
A Boris 100 maj against Corbyn.
Due to split remain , and TBP standing down to back leave without a deal.
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Boris doesn't simply need a General Election, it is what must happen to stop him. Without a VONC that must inexorably lead to a General Election [even if a temporary PM takes over to request an extension first] there will be a No Deal Brexit and job done. With one there must be a General Election.ralphmalph said:Boris is running around the country to get as big a bounce as possible. If he succeeds and the polls in late Sept, early Oct are Torys 35% ish and Lib and Lab 20% ish, it will be a very brave Labour party that initiates any action that could result in a snap GE.
But the instability will still be there because if Boris wants a GE to take advantage, how does he engineer one? So we could have a lame duck Govt for a period of time.
On the business investment we know that it has been delayed because of the uncertainty, so a change of tax laws to initiate could be done very simply and quickly.
If the Tories are having double-digit poll leads like you said then the opposition engineers what will be viewed by Brexiteers as a coup to displace Boris and leads to an extension that could boost now-Opposition Leader Boris even more in the polls. He won't just go quietly into the night while leading the polls and neither will Brexiteers ignore Parliament stopping him, it would quite literally play into his hands and show why a majority is needed.
Farage would have no choice but to stand aside. Brexiteers will have to be united, but Labour and Lib Dems will seek tactical votes but not be united.0 -
Anaphillipe has broken.....could be team ineos 1/20
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Yep. Lucky he didn't have the final climb yesterday, or he'd struggle to be top 10 in the end.FrancisUrquhart said:Anaphillipe has broken.....could be team ineos 1/2
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A winnar is me - lucky that Le Clerc got bored or something, but still 2.5/1 for a Hamilton win???Nigelb said:
Good call.JBriskinindyref2 said:sorry to interrupt - I will read thread
But if you're quick you can get 2.5/1 on Hamilton for pole for German grand prix - I'm on it
Ferrari do it again...0 -
Also lucky not a full stage today, as they would have already had to endure another big climb.dixiedean said:
Yep. Lucky he didn't have the final climb yesterday, or he'd struggle to be top 10 in the end.FrancisUrquhart said:Anaphillipe has broken.....could be team ineos 1/2
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Boned by Ferrari. rather than bored...JBriskinindyref2 said:
A winnar is me - lucky that Le Clerc got bored or something, but still 2.5/1 for a Hamilton win???Nigelb said:
Good call.JBriskinindyref2 said:sorry to interrupt - I will read thread
But if you're quick you can get 2.5/1 on Hamilton for pole for German grand prix - I'm on it
Ferrari do it again...
Betfair can be slow sometimes, and Mercedes came from what seemed to be nowhere.0 -
Maybe there is a cunning plan to bore Hamilton into retirement.0
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By-election in Sheffield Hallam expected later this year. Should be an easy LD gain.0
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Good afternoon, everyone.
F1: very surprised how fast Ferrari looked. And yet, they didn't trouble the front row.0 -
Well done, I switched to backing Lewis after Q1, having laid that 1.77 yesterday.JBriskinindyref2 said:sorry to interrupt - I will read thread
But if you're quick you can get 2.5/1 on Hamilton for pole for German grand prix - I'm on it
Those retro ‘50s uniforms obviously working on the Mercedes team!
Someone needs to remind Ferrari that prototype racing is a fine balance between performance and reliability - and that to finish first, first you have to finish.
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Tough to do if you’re not on the track.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
F1: very surprised how fast Ferrari looked. And yet, they didn't trouble the front row.0 -
Crossing the Tay. Not that silvery today, unfortunately.0
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The backstop only comes into effect if there is no FTA. If it does take effect London can say it doesn’t consider itself bound by the treaty anymore as every sovereign nation can. Indeed it could have done that with the TEU but sensibly decided to take the Art 50 route instead. Arguably we would be breaking international law but laws are worthless without enforcement. When Ireland sought to leave the U.K. 1918 it got the Black and Tans shooting them. If the U.K. unilaterally withdraws from the backstop it will get some huffing and puffing from the EU, maybe some tariffs (but you say they are not so bad) and life will go on. No one will die and government will continue. We are an apparently “unfree” nation armed to the teeth with a variety of modern weapons up to and including nuclear ones so breaking this treaty won’t mean a war. Life, on the other hand, for thousands of Irish people in the Tan war until 1922, didn’t go on because British Forces killed them and they had no one but the Old IRA to protect them. The EU isn’t going to open fire at the crowd at Wembley during the FA Cup final like we did in Croke Park on Bloody Sunday (the 1920 original as opposed to the 1973 sequel). There are no comparisons. None.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
Suffrage was universally different in the past, yes that is true for all parts of the union and across the globe. However those who had suffrage elected MPs, something we will not get to do in the backstop.SouthamObserver said:
Under a backstop scenario, what would happen is that in limited areas the UK would have to implement laws agreed by the Council of Ministers and ratified by MEPs. Those laws will not cover all aspects of our lives - in fact they would make very little difference to the way we lead them. Our criminal law would be almost entirely unaffected, for example.Philip_Thompson said:The 19th century was undemocratic for all women and all poor people, not just the Irish.
In 2024 nobody at all in this country will be able to vote to the European Parliament setting our laws. That is unprecedented in these isles since the Acts of Union.
Now, compare that to how the UK Parliament - which most Irish people for most of the course of Irish history had no opportunity to elect - legislated in ways that affected the lives of ordinary Irish men and women.
Furthermore two wrongs don't make a right. It was wrong that suffrage was denied to all (not just Irish) non-homeowners in the past. It was wrong that suffrage was denied to all (not just Irish) women in the past.
It is wrong to deny suffrage to all UK non-homowners, women and homeowning men too in the future if we enter the backstop.
Hard fought democratic freedoms should be maintained for everyone. No laws without representation.0 -
They'll probably describe it as an Independent loss rather than a Labour loss.SouthamObserver said:
Johnson's entire strategy is predicated on the blind stupidity of Labour members. Their reaction to the loss of Sheffield Hallam will be fascinating.edmundintokyo said:The weird thing about this that there are basically no good scenarios in there for Labour, whereas if Jeremy Corbyn stopped being leader there would be several. And yet Labour members still somehow seem to think it's a good idea for Jeremy Corybn to carry on being their leader.
I think you have to wonder if the sheer pressure of the political logic will suddenly make the tectonic plates move. What's keeping Corbyn in place is tribal identification but this is basically a schelling point: Jeremy Corbyn has to be protected by the tribe, because Jeremy Corbyn is the representative of the tribe, and he's representing the tribe because they're protecting him. There's nothing keeping the tribe keeping him in place except inertia.0 -
I wonder if there could be a contest for second place in Sheffield Hallam between Labour and the Tories.0
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Haven't the LD's got a candidate lined up?AndyJS said:By-election in Sheffield Hallam expected later this year. Should be an easy LD gain.
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Mr. B, it's that sort of feeble excuse which explains why Ferrari aren't winning titles any more.1
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Okay I've read NP's piece.
What if we leave (deal or no deal) pre-election. Then none of these scenarios come into play.
It seems sensibly enough written other than that though I'm sure NP just loves being patronised by me.0 -
Best prices - No deal Brexit 2019?
No (WA ratified or A50 extended/revoked) 5/9
Yes (UK leaves EU without WA) 2/1
I assume that Johnson and Farage fans are maxed out on Yes?0 -
Excellent header. What a mess we have inflicted on ourselves as a country. Historians will not believe the stupidity of Britain in the early 21st century.0
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Sir Nicholas Peter William Clegg, that shalt be prime minister in a government of national unity hereafter ....OldKingCole said:
Haven't the LD's got a candidate lined up?AndyJS said:By-election in Sheffield Hallam expected later this year. Should be an easy LD gain.
Maybe not.0 -
I'd put a few quid on it - which bookmaker ?StuartDickson said:Best prices - No deal Brexit 2019?
No (WA ratified or A50 extended/revoked) 5/9
Yes (UK leaves EU without WA) 2/1
I assume that Johnson and Farage fans are maxed out on Yes?0 -
Eh?SouthamObserver said:
Johnson's entire strategy is predicated on the blind stupidity of Labour members. Their reaction to the loss of Sheffield Hallam will be fascinating.edmundintokyo said:The weird thing about this that there are basically no good scenarios in there for Labour, whereas if Jeremy Corbyn stopped being leader there would be several. And yet Labour members still somehow seem to think it's a good idea for Jeremy Corybn to carry on being their leader.
I think you have to wonder if the sheer pressure of the political logic will suddenly make the tectonic plates move. What's keeping Corbyn in place is tribal identification but this is basically a schelling point: Jeremy Corbyn has to be protected by the tribe, because Jeremy Corbyn is the representative of the tribe, and he's representing the tribe because they're protecting him. There's nothing keeping the tribe keeping him in place except inertia.0 -
Yes - https://twitter.com/libdemlauraOldKingCole said:
Haven't the LD's got a candidate lined up?AndyJS said:By-election in Sheffield Hallam expected later this year. Should be an easy LD gain.
Edit to say - she also has a policy - thinking about a question regarding the Lib Dems and policies yesterday..
https://twitter.com/LibDemLaura/status/11548184983229972480 -
The US is going to do a great FTA with England!! Trump may be being more accurate than he realises here ...
https://twitter.com/brexitcentral/status/1155028419077427201?s=210 -
Betfair Exchange has 3.25-3.3 (decimal).StuartDickson said:Best prices - No deal Brexit 2019?
No (WA ratified or A50 extended/revoked) 5/9
Yes (UK leaves EU without WA) 2/1
I assume that Johnson and Farage fans are maxed out on Yes?0 -
They have, Laura Gordon, she’s been working very hard in the constituency for months.OldKingCole said:
Haven't the LD's got a candidate lined up?AndyJS said:By-election in Sheffield Hallam expected later this year. Should be an easy LD gain.
I shall be PB’s man on the spot for the by election.0 -
5/2 for pole was a great tip. Lewis Hamilton is now 40/1 ON (or 1/40 in new money) to win. At that price he can get out and push and still take the chequered flag.Sandpit said:
Well done, I switched to backing Lewis after Q1, having laid that 1.77 yesterday.JBriskinindyref2 said:sorry to interrupt - I will read thread
But if you're quick you can get 2.5/1 on Hamilton for pole for German grand prix - I'm on it
Those retro ‘50s uniforms obviously working on the Mercedes team!
Someone needs to remind Ferrari that prototype racing is a fine balance between performance and reliability - and that to finish first, first you have to finish.0 -
Actively campaigning or just standing on the sidelines?TheScreamingEagles said:
They have, Laura Gordon, she’s been working very hard in the constituency for months.OldKingCole said:
Haven't the LD's got a candidate lined up?AndyJS said:By-election in Sheffield Hallam expected later this year. Should be an easy LD gain.
I shall be PB’s man on the spot for the by election.0 -
3 times better for the US really isn't that good for us is it?SouthamObserver said:The US is going to do a great FTA with England!! Trump may be being more accurate than he realises here ...
https://twitter.com/brexitcentral/status/1155028419077427201?s=21
Yes we are really negotiating from a position of strength.0 -
If certain rumours are true, internal politics.DavidL said:O/t does anyone understand why Ferrari are determined to make this the dullest season for years?
It certainly doesn't give the impression of being a happy camp atm. And that's just Vettel ...
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I would guess that if anything the truly faithful are probably gulping down even more of the Kool-aid, seeing as they wont be bumping into those nasty Remain-obsessed centrists at party meetings anymore. They've all left and joined the LibDems or just sat at home.Philip_Thompson said:
There's a bit more to it than that. Corbynistas are confident that Corbyn will win the next election for them, because they support him and because everyone they know hates the Tories so surely he will win?edmundintokyo said:The weird thing about this that there are basically no good scenarios in there for Labour, whereas if Jeremy Corbyn stopped being leader there would be several. And yet Labour members still somehow seem to think it's a good idea for Jeremy Corybn to carry on being their leader.
I think you have to wonder if the sheer pressure of the political logic will suddenly create an earthquake. What's keeping Corbyn in place is tribal identification but this is basically a schelling point: Jeremy Corbyn has to be protected bt the tribe, because Jeremy Corbyn is the representative of the tribe, and he's representing the tribe because they're protecting him. There's nothing keeping the tribe keeping him in place except inertia.
And they take 2017 as evidence to support that. He turned around a 24% deficit to a 2% deficit in 4 weeks. What could he do starting at about parity? Corbyn landslide here we come.
Given they've drank that kool-aid I don't think any evidence is going to shake that. Maybe double-digit to 20% poll leads for the Tories once more but even then they'll dismiss it as a bounce like May got that isn't real.
Easier to talk yourselves into a Owen Jones's style revivalist mood when everyone in the room is Hard Left and Momentum.0 -
Thanks - I'm on it - although I didn't exactly go largeChris said:
Betfair Exchange has 3.25-3.3 (decimal).StuartDickson said:Best prices - No deal Brexit 2019?
No (WA ratified or A50 extended/revoked) 5/9
Yes (UK leaves EU without WA) 2/1
I assume that Johnson and Farage fans are maxed out on Yes?0 -
Team marginal gains does it again....0
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Congress will not pass a Trade Deal.eek said:
3 times better for the US really isn't that good for us is it?SouthamObserver said:The US is going to do a great FTA with England!! Trump may be being more accurate than he realises here ...
https://twitter.com/brexitcentral/status/1155028419077427201?s=21
Yes we are really negotiating from a position of strength.
Next.0 -
Has O'Mara indicated he has had enough?eek said:
Actively campaigning or just standing on the sidelines?TheScreamingEagles said:
They have, Laura Gordon, she’s been working very hard in the constituency for months.OldKingCole said:
Haven't the LD's got a candidate lined up?AndyJS said:By-election in Sheffield Hallam expected later this year. Should be an easy LD gain.
I shall be PB’s man on the spot for the by election.0 -
The Donald invariably wears British ties (American ties have the stripes the other way) so there's that. Can anyone see what is on the desk behind him, besides the family photos?eek said:
3 times better for the US really isn't that good for us is it?SouthamObserver said:The US is going to do a great FTA with England!! Trump may be being more accurate than he realises here ...
https://twitter.com/brexitcentral/status/1155028419077427201?s=21
Yes we are really negotiating from a position of strength.0 -
1/40 is silly, even for Lewis and Mercedes. He’s 1/10 for the title now, which is basically betting against him getting injured and having to sit out the rest of the season.DecrepitJohnL said:
5/2 for pole was a great tip. Lewis Hamilton is now 40/1 ON (or 1/40 in new money) to win. At that price he can get out and push and still take the chequered flag.Sandpit said:
Well done, I switched to backing Lewis after Q1, having laid that 1.77 yesterday.JBriskinindyref2 said:sorry to interrupt - I will read thread
But if you're quick you can get 2.5/1 on Hamilton for pole for German grand prix - I'm on it
Those retro ‘50s uniforms obviously working on the Mercedes team!
Someone needs to remind Ferrari that prototype racing is a fine balance between performance and reliability - and that to finish first, first you have to finish.0 -
He's not coming back anytime soon.Chris said:
Sir Nicholas Peter William Clegg, that shalt be prime minister in a government of national unity hereafter ....OldKingCole said:
Haven't the LD's got a candidate lined up?AndyJS said:By-election in Sheffield Hallam expected later this year. Should be an easy LD gain.
Maybe not.0 -
Fixed that for you.rottenborough said:Excellent header. What a mess we have inflicted on ourselves as a country. Historians will not believe the stupidity of the Conservative and Unionist Party in the early 21st century.
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Indeed. You have to take your hat off to them. This was meant to be a Sky proofed course, but played into Bernal's hands.FrancisUrquhart said:Team marginal gains does it again....
Fewer 2000m + finishes next year...more time trailing, but Ineos have no fewer than 3 potential GC winners next time.0 -
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1155115413312872448
No chance of any kind of alliance whilst Jezza remains leader.0 -
I’m sure you’re looking forward to having an actual MP, rather than the waste of space you’ve had for the last two years.TheScreamingEagles said:
They have, Laura Gordon, she’s been working very hard in the constituency for months.OldKingCole said:
Haven't the LD's got a candidate lined up?AndyJS said:By-election in Sheffield Hallam expected later this year. Should be an easy LD gain.
I shall be PB’s man on the spot for the by election.0 -
Labour will be destroyed in Dore, suffer tribulations in Totley, crushed in Crookes, eviscerated in Ecclesall, screwed in Stannington, and fucked in Fullwood.
I will eat a Hawaiian pizza Paddy Ashdown’s hat if they don’t win this by election.0 -
Aye, we went in the space of two years from having the Deputy PM to Jared O’Mara.Sandpit said:
I’m sure you’re looking forward to having an actual MP, rather than the waste of space you’ve had for the last two years.TheScreamingEagles said:
They have, Laura Gordon, she’s been working very hard in the constituency for months.OldKingCole said:
Haven't the LD's got a candidate lined up?AndyJS said:By-election in Sheffield Hallam expected later this year. Should be an easy LD gain.
I shall be PB’s man on the spot for the by election.
That’s one hell of a comedown.
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Citizens, we are going to completely tear up our free trade deal with the EU, and do one with the US instead.
Are you with us?
The advert that did not appear during Leave's campaign.0 -
For those like me who have wondered (but not been that inspired to look it up before) - here's where drinking the 'kool-aid' came from.Philip_Thompson said:
There's a bit more to it than that. Corbynistas are confident that Corbyn will win the next election for them, because they support him and because everyone they know hates the Tories so surely he will win?edmundintokyo said:The weird thing about this that there are basically no good scenarios in there for Labour, whereas if Jeremy Corbyn stopped being leader there would be several. And yet Labour members still somehow seem to think it's a good idea for Jeremy Corybn to carry on being their leader.
I think you have to wonder if the sheer pressure of the political logic will suddenly create an earthquake. What's keeping Corbyn in place is tribal identification but this is basically a schelling point: Jeremy Corbyn has to be protected bt the tribe, because Jeremy Corbyn is the representative of the tribe, and he's representing the tribe because they're protecting him. There's nothing keeping the tribe keeping him in place except inertia.
And they take 2017 as evidence to support that. He turned around a 24% deficit to a 2% deficit in 4 weeks. What could he do starting at about parity? Corbyn landslide here we come.
Given they've drank that kool-aid I don't think any evidence is going to shake that. Maybe double-digit to 20% poll leads for the Tories once more but even then they'll dismiss it as a bounce like May got that isn't real.
"Drinking the Kool-Aid" is a phrase that became known because of the 1978 Jonestown Massacre. It suggests that one has mindlessly adopted the dogma of a group or leader without fully understanding the ramifications or implications. At Jonestown, Jim Jones' followers followed him to the end: after visiting Congressman Leo Ryan was shot at the airstrip, all the Peoples Temple members drank from a metal vat containing a mixture of "Kool Aid", cyanide, and prescription drugs Valium, Phenergan, and chloral hydrate. "
"Perkins discovered a way to remove the liquid from Fruit Smack, leaving only a powder. This powder was named Kool-Aid"0 -
It's been clear for quite a long time that it is not a job that he is in place to be able to do. This will be best of for all involved, including him.david_herdson said:* By-election alert * (and a very good one)
https://twitter.com/yorkshirepost/status/11551036402790277121 -
Lib Dems being remarkably lucky in the By-Elections that are happening, Brecon and now apparently Sheffield Hallam.
Of course the Brexit Party was also lucky in getting Peterborough, I suppose ;-).0 -
Fascinating. Trump made a very clear point of emphasising England. He has probably had briefings on the way the wind is blowing regarding the Union.SouthamObserver said:The US is going to do a great FTA with England!! Trump may be being more accurate than he realises here ...
https://twitter.com/brexitcentral/status/1155028419077427201?s=210 -
Well, it is interesting to compare the sanctimonious pronouncements by the LibDems on mental health ....
.... with what they actually do when confronted with someone who is not well & needs space for medical help.
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I see O'Mara is to stand down.
I do hope he gets the help he clearly needs and he gets proper support from his party after he has quit as an MP.0 -
I don't recall the Conservative and Unionist Party getting 52% support in the referendum.Streeter said:
Fixed that for you.rottenborough said:Excellent header. What a mess we have inflicted on ourselves as a country. Historians will not believe the stupidity of the Conservative and Unionist Party in the early 21st century.
Divvying up blame for how things have gone is all very well and good, and as the one's in government the Tories will take home a lot of it, but the public voted for it, the public then voted for parties who said they would implement the result, and all those decisions were made with eyes open because opponents made counter arguments at the time.
To pin it all on the Tories might be momentarily satisfying but it lets people who voted leave like me off the hook, is a way of avoiding the real people to blame for any chaos - the public.0 -
He no longer has a party with which to support him, he quit them ages ago. But he clearly needs support and help from somebody, and probably should not have been chosen to stand by the party. Hard to know how people will react to the job, and there are non-job related aspects which cannot be predicted for when it comes to these things, but it all seems to have been too much.rottenborough said:I see O'Mara is to stand down.
I do hope he gets the help he clearly needs and he gets proper support from his party after he has quit as an MP.0 -
I think that is giving him rather too much credit in being careful with his language. Even if he has been so briefed, he would also have been briefed not to draw attention to that I would think.StuartDickson said:
Fascinating. Trump made a very clear point of emphasising England. He has probably had briefings on the way the wind is blowing regarding the Union.SouthamObserver said:The US is going to do a great FTA with England!! Trump may be being more accurate than he realises here ...
https://twitter.com/brexitcentral/status/1155028419077427201?s=210 -
Thanks Chris. I’m genuinely surprised that No Deal 2019 is so long. It is, after all, the default legal position; and I just can’t see the Tory rebels getting their act together in time with Lab/SNP/LD/PC/Grn/NI/oth in order to block it.Chris said:
Betfair Exchange has 3.25-3.3 (decimal).StuartDickson said:Best prices - No deal Brexit 2019?
No (WA ratified or A50 extended/revoked) 5/9
Yes (UK leaves EU without WA) 2/1
I assume that Johnson and Farage fans are maxed out on Yes?0 -
"what some people say is Great Britain - and some people remember a word you don't hear too much is the word England, which is a piece of it ..."SouthamObserver said:The US is going to do a great FTA with England!! Trump may be being more accurate than he realises here ...
https://twitter.com/brexitcentral/status/1155028419077427201?s=21
The clown that never disappoints.0 -
Some of the selections made under Jezza have turned out to be less than optimal, to say the least.kle4 said:
He no longer has a party with which to support him, he quit them ages ago. But he clearly needs support and help from somebody, and probably should not have been chosen to stand by the party. Hard to know how people will react to the job, and there are non-job related aspects which cannot be predicted for when it comes to these things, but it all seems to have been too much.rottenborough said:I see O'Mara is to stand down.
I do hope he gets the help he clearly needs and he gets proper support from his party after he has quit as an MP.
One strongly suspects that pure bred loyalty to the Momentum cause overrode better candidates in a number of cases.
Which means if the mass open selection revolution that Momentum is seeking actually happens, we will see more of this.1 -
Mr. Dickson, either that or lots of people overseas regularly say England when they mean Britain or the UK.
Still, I'm amused you have such faith in Trump's political antennae when it comes to the UK.0 -
Very interesting thread Nick
Many on here are certain there will be a vonc in September or early October but I have doubts
Labour seem to be sinking, caught between conservatives and a re-energised Lib Dems and without being unkind to you Nick, I think labour's decline will increase as long as Corbyn is in place and they will lose heavily in a GE
For that reason the labour mantra of a general election now is looking increasingly just talk as so many labour seats could be at risk, even in London from the Lib dems, I think they would be wise to try to assist in getting a deal and let us exit on the 31st October
The whole dynamic changes then and domestic issues rises up the agenda
Indeed, I have no doubt Boris and his advisers decided to light the torch on a GE campaign from day one and we are seeing now the manifesto being promoted to the public
I would agree the discourse on the last thread left a lot to be desired.
PB is better than that folks1 -
Is Swinson one of Napoleon's 'lucky Generals'?logical_song said:Lib Dems being remarkably lucky in the By-Elections that are happening, Brecon and now apparently Sheffield Hallam.
Of course the Brexit Party was also lucky in getting Peterborough, I suppose ;-).0 -
Well I’ve never voted for the winning candidate in the constituency, my first time was voting for Sir Irvine Patnick in 1997. 20 years later I voted for Nick Clegg. I think the Lib Dems will pay me to vote Labour. 0
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They had been enjoying an afternoon and evening of patriotic partying, and consuming large amounts of alcohol, and then a clown appeared.rottenborough said:
It sounds like a microcosm of modern Britain - or ... what's that word you don't hear too much these days ... what is it ... ?0 -
Well he gets on well with UK politicians.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dickson, either that or lots of people overseas regularly say England when they mean Britain or the UK.
Still, I'm amused you have such faith in Trump's political antennae when it comes to the UK.
What do Alex Salmond and Donald Trump have/haven’t in common could make for an interesting pub quiz question in a few years time.
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Have you ever been to the US or been in the company of AmericansStuartDickson said:
Fascinating. Trump made a very clear point of emphasising England. He has probably had briefings on the way the wind is blowing regarding the Union.SouthamObserver said:The US is going to do a great FTA with England!! Trump may be being more accurate than he realises here ...
https://twitter.com/brexitcentral/status/1155028419077427201?s=21
They always call UK England and to be honest it annoys both my wife and I so much that we correct them whenever we get the chance. It is very apparent on the many cruises we have been on and we do say that we come from the UK and is wrong to refer it as England.
It is fair to make political observations from your own point of view, but on this I disagree with you1 -
Which of them sold out fastest?TheScreamingEagles said:
Aye, we went in the space of two years from having the Deputy PM to Jared O’Mara.Sandpit said:
I’m sure you’re looking forward to having an actual MP, rather than the waste of space you’ve had for the last two years.TheScreamingEagles said:
They have, Laura Gordon, she’s been working very hard in the constituency for months.OldKingCole said:
Haven't the LD's got a candidate lined up?AndyJS said:By-election in Sheffield Hallam expected later this year. Should be an easy LD gain.
I shall be PB’s man on the spot for the by election.
That’s one hell of a comedown.0 -
He probably just had a briefing to try to knock into his thick skull what the "pieces" of the UK were - and perhaps even the difference between the UK and GB - and just about managed to remember one of those pieces of information (with difficulty).StuartDickson said:
Fascinating. Trump made a very clear point of emphasising England. He has probably had briefings on the way the wind is blowing regarding the Union.SouthamObserver said:The US is going to do a great FTA with England!! Trump may be being more accurate than he realises here ...
https://twitter.com/brexitcentral/status/1155028419077427201?s=210 -
It's possible both to feel sympathy for his mental health issues and to note that he's been taking the salary whilst leaving his constituents effectively unrepresented for some considerable time now. It's also possible to have sympathy for members of his own staff and others to whom he has quite clearly been threatening and abusive.YBarddCwsc said:Well, it is interesting to compare the sanctimonious pronouncements by the LibDems on mental health ....
.... with what they actually do when confronted with someone who is not well & needs space for medical help.
It's also worth noting that, although mental health issues of the sort Jared O'Mara appears to have been experiencing could explain some of his extreme behaviour on individual occasions, he'll almost certainly have had ups and downs. At any time in the ups, he could and really should have reflected on whether it was fair to others to continue in the role.
Finally, it's pretty clearly in the man's interests himself to get out of the situation (that's what will give him space for medical help as you put it), so there's some relief all round that he appears to have decided to do so.2 -
And that ship will have many Americans, Canadians, and other nationals on board, not just Britsrottenborough said:0 -
There's also a fair amount of people who do it in England..er..Britain.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dickson, either that or lots of people overseas regularly say England when they mean Britain or the UK.
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Someone "taking offence". What a surprise.rottenborough said:0
