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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three paths to instability
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three paths to instability
We now have the archetypal scenario of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. Boris Johnson has now made so many “October 31 unless the backstop gets it” speeches that it’s time to believe him: if he rowed back from it now, Farage would eat him alive, and the ERG would consume the remains. The EU has said so often that they will not alter, let alone remove, the backstop that it is inconceivable that they will even contemplate it.
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Germany already has an interesting aerial taxi prototype, which will be a commercial proposition with a relatively small improvement in battery energy density.
Zero carbon long haul will rely on fuels manufactured via renewables, and will take a good couple of decades.
What about scenario 1a.
Scenario 1a is a Boris triumph. Swept back with a majority of 100 fervent Brexiteers, he leads us out of the EU with minimal arrangements to prevent total chaos. People muddle through – we don’t run out of food and medicine, but trade struggles to adapt[s], the pound slides, investment slumps rebounds following the end of uncertainy and due to the lower pound and the trade talks inch forward over years. After years of fire-fighting, some sort of stability is achieved, but we are in recession and the Tories lose the following election to whoever has emerged standing from the Opposition bunfight.
No surprise !
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155096583282790401
Really he should resign now to ensure a by election in september.
But if you're quick you can get 2.5/1 on Hamilton for pole for German grand prix - I'm on it
Furthermore two wrongs don't make a right. It was wrong that suffrage was denied to all (not just Irish) non-homeowners in the past. It was wrong that suffrage was denied to all (not just Irish) women in the past.
It is wrong to deny suffrage to all UK non-homowners, women and homeowning men too in the future if we enter the backstop.
Hard fought democratic freedoms should be maintained for everyone. No laws without representation.
Yes. Yes, it is...
I think you have to wonder if the sheer pressure of the political logic will suddenly make the tectonic plates move. What's keeping Corbyn in place is tribal identification but this is basically a schelling point: Jeremy Corbyn has to be protected by the tribe, because Jeremy Corbyn is the representative of the tribe, and he's representing the tribe because they're protecting him. There's nothing keeping the tribe keeping him in place except inertia.
Ferrari do it again...
But the instability will still be there because if Boris wants a GE to take advantage, how does he engineer one? So we could have a lame duck Govt for a period of time.
On the business investment we know that it has been delayed because of the uncertainty, so a change of tax laws to initiate could be done very simply and quickly.
I hope for a 2A!
Brexit will just hinder the economy and Immigration will continue from the rest of the world instead of Europe. Pointless.
And they take 2017 as evidence to support that. He turned around a 24% deficit to a 2% deficit in 4 weeks. What could he do starting at about parity? Corbyn landslide here we come.
Given they've drank that kool-aid I don't think any evidence is going to shake that. Maybe double-digit to 20% poll leads for the Tories once more but even then they'll dismiss it as a bounce like May got that isn't real.
Heck I can't be bothered to use one of my £4 sky sports weekly passes on Now TV this weekend...
If I had to bet it is scenario 1.
A Boris 100 maj against Corbyn.
Due to split remain , and TBP standing down to back leave without a deal.
If the Tories are having double-digit poll leads like you said then the opposition engineers what will be viewed by Brexiteers as a coup to displace Boris and leads to an extension that could boost now-Opposition Leader Boris even more in the polls. He won't just go quietly into the night while leading the polls and neither will Brexiteers ignore Parliament stopping him, it would quite literally play into his hands and show why a majority is needed.
Farage would have no choice but to stand aside. Brexiteers will have to be united, but Labour and Lib Dems will seek tactical votes but not be united.
Betfair can be slow sometimes, and Mercedes came from what seemed to be nowhere.
On the other hand, he might outlast Ferrari...
F1: very surprised how fast Ferrari looked. And yet, they didn't trouble the front row.
Those retro ‘50s uniforms obviously working on the Mercedes team!
Someone needs to remind Ferrari that prototype racing is a fine balance between performance and reliability - and that to finish first, first you have to finish.
What if we leave (deal or no deal) pre-election. Then none of these scenarios come into play.
It seems sensibly enough written other than that though I'm sure NP just loves being patronised by me.
No (WA ratified or A50 extended/revoked) 5/9
Yes (UK leaves EU without WA) 2/1
I assume that Johnson and Farage fans are maxed out on Yes?
Maybe not.
Edit to say - she also has a policy - thinking about a question regarding the Lib Dems and policies yesterday..
https://twitter.com/LibDemLaura/status/1154818498322997248
https://twitter.com/brexitcentral/status/1155028419077427201?s=21
I shall be PB’s man on the spot for the by election.
Yes we are really negotiating from a position of strength.
It certainly doesn't give the impression of being a happy camp atm. And that's just Vettel ...
Easier to talk yourselves into a Owen Jones's style revivalist mood when everyone in the room is Hard Left and Momentum.
Next.
Fewer 2000m + finishes next year...more time trailing, but Ineos have no fewer than 3 potential GC winners next time.
No chance of any kind of alliance whilst Jezza remains leader.
I will eat a Hawaiian pizza Paddy Ashdown’s hat if they don’t win this by election.
That’s one hell of a comedown.
Are you with us?
The advert that did not appear during Leave's campaign.
"Drinking the Kool-Aid" is a phrase that became known because of the 1978 Jonestown Massacre. It suggests that one has mindlessly adopted the dogma of a group or leader without fully understanding the ramifications or implications. At Jonestown, Jim Jones' followers followed him to the end: after visiting Congressman Leo Ryan was shot at the airstrip, all the Peoples Temple members drank from a metal vat containing a mixture of "Kool Aid", cyanide, and prescription drugs Valium, Phenergan, and chloral hydrate. "
"Perkins discovered a way to remove the liquid from Fruit Smack, leaving only a powder. This powder was named Kool-Aid"
Of course the Brexit Party was also lucky in getting Peterborough, I suppose ;-).
.... with what they actually do when confronted with someone who is not well & needs space for medical help.
I do hope he gets the help he clearly needs and he gets proper support from his party after he has quit as an MP.
Divvying up blame for how things have gone is all very well and good, and as the one's in government the Tories will take home a lot of it, but the public voted for it, the public then voted for parties who said they would implement the result, and all those decisions were made with eyes open because opponents made counter arguments at the time.
To pin it all on the Tories might be momentarily satisfying but it lets people who voted leave like me off the hook, is a way of avoiding the real people to blame for any chaos - the public.
The clown that never disappoints.
One strongly suspects that pure bred loyalty to the Momentum cause overrode better candidates in a number of cases.
Which means if the mass open selection revolution that Momentum is seeking actually happens, we will see more of this.
Still, I'm amused you have such faith in Trump's political antennae when it comes to the UK.
Many on here are certain there will be a vonc in September or early October but I have doubts
Labour seem to be sinking, caught between conservatives and a re-energised Lib Dems and without being unkind to you Nick, I think labour's decline will increase as long as Corbyn is in place and they will lose heavily in a GE
For that reason the labour mantra of a general election now is looking increasingly just talk as so many labour seats could be at risk, even in London from the Lib dems, I think they would be wise to try to assist in getting a deal and let us exit on the 31st October
The whole dynamic changes then and domestic issues rises up the agenda
Indeed, I have no doubt Boris and his advisers decided to light the torch on a GE campaign from day one and we are seeing now the manifesto being promoted to the public
I would agree the discourse on the last thread left a lot to be desired.
PB is better than that folks
It sounds like a microcosm of modern Britain - or ... what's that word you don't hear too much these days ... what is it ... ?
What do Alex Salmond and Donald Trump have/haven’t in common could make for an interesting pub quiz question in a few years time.
They always call UK England and to be honest it annoys both my wife and I so much that we correct them whenever we get the chance. It is very apparent on the many cruises we have been on and we do say that we come from the UK and is wrong to refer it as England.
It is fair to make political observations from your own point of view, but on this I disagree with you
It's also worth noting that, although mental health issues of the sort Jared O'Mara appears to have been experiencing could explain some of his extreme behaviour on individual occasions, he'll almost certainly have had ups and downs. At any time in the ups, he could and really should have reflected on whether it was fair to others to continue in the role.
Finally, it's pretty clearly in the man's interests himself to get out of the situation (that's what will give him space for medical help as you put it), so there's some relief all round that he appears to have decided to do so.