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I agree.anothernick said:VONC if nothing else works. It's clear that some Tories will vote to bring down their own government if its the only way of stopping no deal. Though I suspect something slightly less drastic will be cooked up in Sept/Oct. I'm not an expert in procedure but at least 400 of 650 MPs, a huge majority in the Lords and a large majority of voters oppose no deal - the politics of that are clear. The Commons will find a way I have no doubt.
Come the autumn, 2 scenarios, (a) Johnson allows himself to be forced into an extension into 2020, (b) Brexit GE.
If (b) Johnson wins or he loses.
If he wins he has the authority to pass the WA - which he will since he is not serious about No Deal. This current stuff is for show.
If he loses, we are into Ref2 territory, which probably ends with Remain.
I see no route to No Deal other than accidental. I give it a 10% probability. I'm therefore laying it on betfair at 3.5. That's even better than it looks because the market is for 2019 only. No Deal in 2020 is a winner.
I have it as a toss up between the other 2 end states, Brexit via the WA, or Remain. 45% each.
But no, let's adjust that to 60/30 in favour of the WA.
The 2016 Ref said Leave and I have to believe that we eventually will.0 -
Good plan. Better than what Theresa May did, shame she spurned it.williamglenn said:
You sure about that? This was their laughable 'plan':Philip_Thompson said:
Vote Leave came up with a very clear, clean and straightforward way of leaving. Lets hope we finally do it now.Sandpit said:
The Vote Leave campaign operates under the parameters of the question and legislation they were given by the 2015 Parliament. It’s not a campaigner’s fault that Parliament left the question so open-ended.williamglenn said:
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.Sandpit said:
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/7441389493842780161 -
Well that of course is why the next 97 days is going to be so interesting.williamglenn said:
Boris Johnson is also lying about it.Philip_Thompson said:
But she kept up with the rhetoric until she left. Fair enough to change your mind, but was she lying when she continued to say it even recently she was still insisting no deal must be an option.TOPPING said:
It's a good question. I think it was that once reality hit May it became obvious that the rhetoric couldn't be sustained. But yes, it was a f***ing stupid thing to have said.Philip_Thompson said:
All these "principled" resignations are from people who served under "No deal is better than a bad deal" May for years.Scott_P said:
Why is no deal 2.5 years into the 2 year window of Article 50 so unacceptable, but it was acceptable to state as your option for years?
Or was it just on an assumption that May was lying to everyone and would never follow through whereas Boris might be telling the truth?0 -
LOL - a little ambivalent on Brexit yourself then Mr Glenn!williamglenn said:
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.Philip_Thompson said:
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.williamglenn said:
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.Sandpit said:
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.Scott_P said:0 -
It's a fantasy. Where does Article 50 and the EU27 fit into this plan?Philip_Thompson said:
Good plan. Better than what Theresa May did, shame she spurned it.williamglenn said:
You sure about that? This was their laughable 'plan':Philip_Thompson said:
Vote Leave came up with a very clear, clean and straightforward way of leaving. Lets hope we finally do it now.Sandpit said:
The Vote Leave campaign operates under the parameters of the question and legislation they were given by the 2015 Parliament. It’s not a campaigner’s fault that Parliament left the question so open-ended.williamglenn said:
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.Sandpit said:
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/7441389493842780160 -
didnt you get a vote same as everyone else ?williamglenn said:
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.Philip_Thompson said:
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.williamglenn said:
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.Sandpit said:
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.Scott_P said:0 -
The problem is that Boris HAS got a plan and it looks like Cummings will force the UK to ally with the US Alt-right in an anti EU and anti Liberal alliance...Chlorinated Chicken, socially conservative culture wars and alljustin124 said:
How many people are likely to see this?DecrepitJohnL said:Jeremy Corbyn might be biased but I don't think he is very impressed by Boris.
More significantly, perhaps, he calls for a referendum on Brexit or an election.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/11544524491236229150 -
There are plenty of ways to be disenfranchised - and absolutely no need to ask why.Alanbrooke said:
didnt you get a vote same as everyone else ?williamglenn said:
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.Philip_Thompson said:
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.williamglenn said:
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.Sandpit said:
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.Scott_P said:0 -
Mr. Sandpit, yeah, wish I'd put more on it.
Or that the in-season Ladbrokes specials on Hamilton winning a lot had actually let me wager anything...0 -
A non sequitur. The result is very largely due to pavement politics and the fact that the local Labour councillor resigned because he was facing disqualification for non- attendance.OblitusSumMe said:
Yes. Labour have dropped from first to third, so it would have been mistaken to see them as best placed to defeat the Tories.logical_song said:
Let me get this straight.OblitusSumMe said:The Podsmead local by-election result is very interesting. It's an example of exactly what I, and others, were arguing about in terms of tactical voting. If a few voters who had voted Lib Dem had decided to vote "tactically" for Labour, because Labour won the ward at the previous election, then the Conservatives would have sneaked it just ahead of the Lib Dems.
I think that potential for confusion gives Johnson a great chance of winning a majority.
Podsmead (Gloucester) result:
LDEM: 30.0% (+30.0)
CON: 29.6% (-18.5)
LAB: 18.0% (-33.9)
BREX: 16.4% (+16.4)
GRN: 4.3% (+4.3)
UKIP: 1.6% (+1.6)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
You are basing your argument on what might have happened if people had voted differently - but didn't.
Is that correct?
I think they could drop to third in some of the marginal seats they currently hold, given present opinion polls.0 -
are you saying Billy boy was in the clink at the time ?JBriskinindyref2 said:
There are plenty of ways to be disenfranchised - and absolutely no need to ask why.Alanbrooke said:
didnt you get a vote same as everyone else ?williamglenn said:
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.Philip_Thompson said:
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.williamglenn said:
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.Sandpit said:
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.Scott_P said:0 -
Oh FFS sake - It'll never happen to you I'm sure Mr Brooke so don't worry.Alanbrooke said:
are you saying Billy boy was in the clink at the time ?JBriskinindyref2 said:
There are plenty of ways to be disenfranchised - and absolutely no need to ask why.Alanbrooke said:
didnt you get a vote same as everyone else ?williamglenn said:
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.Philip_Thompson said:
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.williamglenn said:
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.Sandpit said:
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.Scott_P said:
My reason was I was No Fixed Abode at the time - I assume Mr Glenn was also going through a less than perfect time in his life.0 -
And acclaimed writer, don't forget...Cyclefree said:
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In fact, until she stupidly coined the expression "No Deal is better than a Bad Deal" , No Deal had not entered the Brexit lexicon. The expression was not used during the referendum. Ironically, the ERG cannot be blamed for this.TOPPING said:
It's a good question. I think it was that once reality hit May it became obvious that the rhetoric couldn't be sustained. But yes, it was a f***ing stupid thing to have said.Philip_Thompson said:
All these "principled" resignations are from people who served under "No deal is better than a bad deal" May for years.Scott_P said:
Why is no deal 2.5 years into the 2 year window of Article 50 so unacceptable, but it was acceptable to state as your option for years?
Or was it just on an assumption that May was lying to everyone and would never follow through whereas Boris might be telling the truth?
May simply was not a politician. How she survived so long to become the PM is a mystery.1 -
sorry to hear about the NFA problemJBriskinindyref2 said:
Oh FFS sake - It'll never happen to you I'm sure Mr Brooke so don't worry.Alanbrooke said:
are you saying Billy boy was in the clink at the time ?JBriskinindyref2 said:
There are plenty of ways to be disenfranchised - and absolutely no need to ask why.Alanbrooke said:
didnt you get a vote same as everyone else ?williamglenn said:
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.Philip_Thompson said:
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.williamglenn said:
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.Sandpit said:
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.Scott_P said:
My reason was I was No Fixed Abode at the time - I assume Mr Glenn was also going through a less than perfect time in his life.
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Don't see how Johnson can get to a Brexit GE without agreeing an A50 extension in advance of it, and that would send Farage and the ERG into full betrayal mode which would probably split the Tories and mean certain defeat for Boris.kinabalu said:
I agree.anothernick said:VONC if nothing else works. It's clear that some Tories will vote to bring down their own government if its the only way of stopping no deal. Though I suspect something slightly less drastic will be cooked up in Sept/Oct. I'm not an expert in procedure but at least 400 of 650 MPs, a huge majority in the Lords and a large majority of voters oppose no deal - the politics of that are clear. The Commons will find a way I have no doubt.
Come the autumn, 2 scenarios, (a) Johnson allows himself to be forced into an extension into 2020, (b) Brexit GE.
If (b) Johnson wins or he loses.
If he wins he has the authority to pass the WA - which he will since he is not serious about No Deal. This current stuff is for show.
If he loses, we are into Ref2 territory, which probably ends with Remain.
I see no route to No Deal other than accidental. I give it a 10% probability. I'm therefore laying it on betfair at 3.5. That's even better than it looks because the market is for 2019 only. No Deal in 2020 is a winner.
I have it as a toss up between the other 2 end states, Brexit via the WA, or Remain. 45% each.
But no, let's adjust that to 60/30 in favour of the WA.
The 2016 Ref said Leave and I have to believe that we eventually will.
IMHO Boris really does think the EU will blink and he has bet the farm on that. Some of his stupider followers seem to think he can go for a GE but as we discussed earlier there is no easy route to that - it would require opposition support and the price of that support would be an extension to A50 which would incinerate Boris' credibility as his do or die promise to leave on 31 October would be junked.0 -
Kamala needs another debate bounce...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harriss-debate-bounce-is-fading/
And Great Uncle Joe is getting feisty:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/454802-team-biden-fires-back-you-cant-let-people-say-bullshit-and-not-respond-to
Fireworks at the next debate.0 -
I think that's slightly unfair. The logic of No Deal ultimately stems from Cameron's Bloomberg speech with the notion that if we don't get what we want, we'll walk away.surbiton19 said:
In fact, until she stupidly coined the expression "No Deal is better than a Bad Deal" , No Deal had not entered the Brexit lexicon. The expression was not used during the referendum. Ironically, the ERG cannot be blamed for this.TOPPING said:
It's a good question. I think it was that once reality hit May it became obvious that the rhetoric couldn't be sustained. But yes, it was a f***ing stupid thing to have said.Philip_Thompson said:
All these "principled" resignations are from people who served under "No deal is better than a bad deal" May for years.Scott_P said:
Why is no deal 2.5 years into the 2 year window of Article 50 so unacceptable, but it was acceptable to state as your option for years?
Or was it just on an assumption that May was lying to everyone and would never follow through whereas Boris might be telling the truth?
May simply was not a politician. How she survived so long to become the PM is a mystery.0 -
We shouldn't have invoked Article 50 for a couple of years until we were talking on an equal playing field with the EU27, as Vote Leave said.williamglenn said:
It's a fantasy. Where does Article 50 and the EU27 fit into this plan?Philip_Thompson said:
Good plan. Better than what Theresa May did, shame she spurned it.williamglenn said:
You sure about that? This was their laughable 'plan':Philip_Thompson said:
Vote Leave came up with a very clear, clean and straightforward way of leaving. Lets hope we finally do it now.Sandpit said:
The Vote Leave campaign operates under the parameters of the question and legislation they were given by the 2015 Parliament. It’s not a campaigner’s fault that Parliament left the question so open-ended.williamglenn said:
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.Sandpit said:
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/7441389493842780161 -
It's okay, I've got a home now. Ironically Mr Glen asked me why I was disenfranshised at the time some threads ago - being on opposite sides of an argument can cause some weird logicAlanbrooke said:
sorry to hear about the NFA problemJBriskinindyref2 said:
Oh FFS sake - It'll never happen to you I'm sure Mr Brooke so don't worry.Alanbrooke said:
are you saying Billy boy was in the clink at the time ?JBriskinindyref2 said:
There are plenty of ways to be disenfranchised - and absolutely no need to ask why.Alanbrooke said:
didnt you get a vote same as everyone else ?williamglenn said:
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.Philip_Thompson said:
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.williamglenn said:
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.Sandpit said:
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.Scott_P said:
My reason was I was No Fixed Abode at the time - I assume Mr Glenn was also going through a less than perfect time in his life.0 -
It isn't quite a Government of All the Fuckwits, as Chris Grayling is not in it.Cyclefree said:0 -
I think this may be an unwarranted assumption.anothernick said:
IMHO Boris really does think ...0 -
Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/11547639409597931520 -
This is a point.williamglenn said:I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.
Support for much deeper integration and euro membership is a minority sport in this country but it is nevertheless a group of people who would more than fill Wembley Stadium. And they were indeed disenfranchised by the Referendum.
Imagine if they had got together and packed out Wembley and demanded that 3rd option - Leave Remain ... REMAIN & REJOICE.
Would David Cameron have had the balls to get up there on stage and face them down? Tell them they didn't matter? That he was only interested in fruits and loons and closet racists?
No way. He would have run a million miles. And yet that, effectively, is what he did from a position of shelter behind his desk.
It was rank cowardice.0 -
I know, I know, it's in the Daily Mail, but still .......
100 grand a year for ex prime ministers to fulfill "their public role". Didn't we bung them enough cash with pensions, expenses and the redundo they get for being voted out on top of the 100+k a year they got just for turning up?
The establishment look after their own.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7273495/Nick-Clegg-claimed-113-000-public-duty-expenses-despite-1m-Facebook-role.html0 -
There was never going to be a negotiation of equals between the UK and EU27 for the simple reason that they are not equal.Philip_Thompson said:
We shouldn't have invoked Article 50 for a couple of years until we were talking on an equal playing field with the EU27, as Vote Leave said.williamglenn said:
It's a fantasy. Where does Article 50 and the EU27 fit into this plan?Philip_Thompson said:
Good plan. Better than what Theresa May did, shame she spurned it.williamglenn said:
You sure about that? This was their laughable 'plan':Philip_Thompson said:
Vote Leave came up with a very clear, clean and straightforward way of leaving. Lets hope we finally do it now.Sandpit said:
The Vote Leave campaign operates under the parameters of the question and legislation they were given by the 2015 Parliament. It’s not a campaigner’s fault that Parliament left the question so open-ended.williamglenn said:
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.Sandpit said:
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/7441389493842780160 -
Mr. Foremain, Grayling's departure is the silver lining.0
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The sentencing remarks in the Carl Beech case:
https://twitter.com/JudiciaryUK/status/11547641980957982730 -
He should refuse to extend. If Parliament wishes to No Confidence then extend before an election they should do that and he should stand there firm against the coup as Leader of the Opposition in the meantime and go into the election as the united Vote Leave leader.anothernick said:
Don't see how Johnson can get to a Brexit GE without agreeing an A50 extension in advance of it, and that would send Farage and the ERG into full betrayal mode which would probably split the Tories and mean certain defeat for Boris.kinabalu said:
I agree.anothernick said:VONC if nothing else works. It's clear that some Tories will vote to bring down their own government if its the only way of stopping no deal. Though I suspect something slightly less drastic will be cooked up in Sept/Oct. I'm not an expert in procedure but at least 400 of 650 MPs, a huge majority in the Lords and a large majority of voters oppose no deal - the politics of that are clear. The Commons will find a way I have no doubt.
Come the autumn, 2 scenarios, (a) Johnson allows himself to be forced into an extension into 2020, (b) Brexit GE.
If (b) Johnson wins or he loses.
If he wins he has the authority to pass the WA - which he will since he is not serious about No Deal. This current stuff is for show.
If he loses, we are into Ref2 territory, which probably ends with Remain.
I see no route to No Deal other than accidental. I give it a 10% probability. I'm therefore laying it on betfair at 3.5. That's even better than it looks because the market is for 2019 only. No Deal in 2020 is a winner.
I have it as a toss up between the other 2 end states, Brexit via the WA, or Remain. 45% each.
But no, let's adjust that to 60/30 in favour of the WA.
The 2016 Ref said Leave and I have to believe that we eventually will.
IMHO Boris really does think the EU will blink and he has bet the farm on that. Some of his stupider followers seem to think he can go for a GE but as we discussed earlier there is no easy route to that - it would require opposition support and the price of that support would be an extension to A50 which would incinerate Boris' credibility as his do or die promise to leave on 31 October would be junked.0 -
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.0 -
What I'm trying to work out is the step after these:-anothernick said:
Don't see how Johnson can get to a Brexit GE without agreeing an A50 extension in advance of it, and that would send Farage and the ERG into full betrayal mode which would probably split the Tories and mean certain defeat for Boris.kinabalu said:
I agree.anothernick said:VONC if nothing else works. It's clear that some Tories will vote to bring down their own government if its the only way of stopping no deal. Though I suspect something slightly less drastic will be cooked up in Sept/Oct. I'm not an expert in procedure but at least 400 of 650 MPs, a huge majority in the Lords and a large majority of voters oppose no deal - the politics of that are clear. The Commons will find a way I have no doubt.
Come the autumn, 2 scenarios, (a) Johnson allows himself to be forced into an extension into 2020, (b) Brexit GE.
If (b) Johnson wins or he loses.
If he wins he has the authority to pass the WA - which he will since he is not serious about No Deal. This current stuff is for show.
If he loses, we are into Ref2 territory, which probably ends with Remain.
I see no route to No Deal other than accidental. I give it a 10% probability. I'm therefore laying it on betfair at 3.5. That's even better than it looks because the market is for 2019 only. No Deal in 2020 is a winner.
I have it as a toss up between the other 2 end states, Brexit via the WA, or Remain. 45% each.
But no, let's adjust that to 60/30 in favour of the WA.
The 2016 Ref said Leave and I have to believe that we eventually will.
IMHO Boris really does think the EU will blink and he has bet the farm on that. Some of his stupider followers seem to think he can go for a GE but as we discussed earlier there is no easy route to that - it would require opposition support and the price of that support would be an extension to A50.
Boris asks for a general election
Corbyn and co insist on an A50 extension before voting for it.
Boris says no
VoNC in Boris
A GONU is formed.
How does that GONU avoid Boris winning the next election? What do they have to do to avoid Boris creating a pact with Nigel...0 -
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.0 -
By a very small margin and under very dubious circumstances. Anyway, the numbskulls and fuckwits completely own it now. They cannot blame anyone for the inevitable car crash anymorePhilip_Thompson said:
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.williamglenn said:
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.Sandpit said:
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.Scott_P said:0 -
Could the Tour be any more dramatic? Race suspended due to hail and snowstorm...0
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That's bonkers!kinabalu said:
This is a point.williamglenn said:I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.
Support for much deeper integration and euro membership is a minority sport in this country but it is nevertheless a group of people who would more than fill Wembley Stadium. And they were indeed disenfranchised by the Referendum.
Imagine if they had got together and packed out Wembley and demanded that 3rd option - Leave Remain ... REMAIN & REJOICE.
Would David Cameron have had the balls to get up there on stage and face them down? Tell them they didn't matter? That he was only interested in fruits and loons and closet racists?
No way. He would have run a million miles. And yet that, effectively, is what he did from a position of shelter behind his desk.
It was rank cowardice.
Remain and rejoice is a subset of remain.
Just as leave and EEA, leave and FTA, leave and WTO are all subsets of leave.0 -
Well on paper if you don't look at the overall picture let alone future relationships Europe have the most to lose. In reality however....Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.0 -
I'm sure that makes sense in your head. Written down, it's gibberish.Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.0 -
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.0 -
Any version of Leave is leave. The referendum was about leaving the Political side of the EU - beyond that it is just variations of leave - some more acceptable to more people than others..Philip_Thompson said:
That's bonkers!kinabalu said:
This is a point.williamglenn said:I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.
Support for much deeper integration and euro membership is a minority sport in this country but it is nevertheless a group of people who would more than fill Wembley Stadium. And they were indeed disenfranchised by the Referendum.
Imagine if they had got together and packed out Wembley and demanded that 3rd option - Leave Remain ... REMAIN & REJOICE.
Would David Cameron have had the balls to get up there on stage and face them down? Tell them they didn't matter? That he was only interested in fruits and loons and closet racists?
No way. He would have run a million miles. And yet that, effectively, is what he did from a position of shelter behind his desk.
It was rank cowardice.
Remain and rejoice is a subset of remain.
Just as leave and EEA, leave and FTA, leave and WTO are all subsets of leave.0 -
Absolutely 100% agreed . . . So long as the referendum losers in Parliament don't pull the plug on us having a clean Brexit if there's no deal agreed.Nigel_Foremain said:
By a very small margin and under very dubious circumstances. Anyway, the numbskulls and fuckwits completely own it now. They cannot blame anyone for the inevitable car crash anymorePhilip_Thompson said:
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.williamglenn said:
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.Sandpit said:
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.Scott_P said:0 -
That was my point.eek said:
Any version of Leave is leave. The referendum was about leaving the Political side of the EU - beyond that it is just variations of leave - some more acceptable to more people than others..Philip_Thompson said:
That's bonkers!kinabalu said:
This is a point.williamglenn said:I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.
Support for much deeper integration and euro membership is a minority sport in this country but it is nevertheless a group of people who would more than fill Wembley Stadium. And they were indeed disenfranchised by the Referendum.
Imagine if they had got together and packed out Wembley and demanded that 3rd option - Leave Remain ... REMAIN & REJOICE.
Would David Cameron have had the balls to get up there on stage and face them down? Tell them they didn't matter? That he was only interested in fruits and loons and closet racists?
No way. He would have run a million miles. And yet that, effectively, is what he did from a position of shelter behind his desk.
It was rank cowardice.
Remain and rejoice is a subset of remain.
Just as leave and EEA, leave and FTA, leave and WTO are all subsets of leave.
Just as any version of remain is remain . . . whether it is a sceptical remain or lets rush headlong into the Euro remain.0 -
Let's get one thing straight. If the WA is not passed [ even an amended one ], there will be no FTA....oh, I forgot they need us more than we need them.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.0 -
https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1154718349697437699Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.0 -
Reminded me of this for some reason.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hM97kEKGME0 -
It is not a 'clean' Brexit, that is a deluded term. It is 'wrenching' Brexit, ripping up decades of agreements and trading arrangements with nothing in place as replacement.Philip_Thompson said:
Absolutely 100% agreed . . . So long as the referendum losers in Parliament don't pull the plug on us having a clean Brexit if there's no deal agreed.Nigel_Foremain said:
By a very small margin and under very dubious circumstances. Anyway, the numbskulls and fuckwits completely own it now. They cannot blame anyone for the inevitable car crash anymorePhilip_Thompson said:
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.williamglenn said:
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.Sandpit said:
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.Scott_P said:0 -
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.0 -
Let's not exaggerate. I'm not even sure any of my children have bothered to read what I write. They smile indulgently at me, treating PB as some sort of indoor vice for the middle-aged, what I do when I'm not gardening.Nigelb said:
And acclaimed writer, don't forget...Cyclefree said:1 -
Mr. Meeks, it doesn't work.
Boris' plan is a falsehood. Either he doesn't intend to leave with no deal and his bluster is, er, bluster. Or he does and he wants to claim it's the EU's fault.
The latter might have weight if Boris had an alternative, or a plan to get something through the Commons. He doesn't. Maybe he will in the future, but so far I see no reason to change my opinion, namely that Boris is a moron.
...0 -
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1154766695057301504
Abolish Backstop Boris tells Merkel.
No Brexit it is then, unless he wins the autumn GE with a majority.0 -
I cannot believe that BoJo could be so delusional as to think there is reincarnated olive's chance in a dry martini of the EU caving over the summer. He surely knows that they won't.anothernick said:Don't see how Johnson can get to a Brexit GE without agreeing an A50 extension in advance of it, and that would send Farage and the ERG into full betrayal mode which would probably split the Tories and mean certain defeat for Boris.
IMHO Boris really does think the EU will blink and he has bet the farm on that. Some of his stupider followers seem to think he can go for a GE but as we discussed earlier there is no easy route to that - it would require opposition support and the price of that support would be an extension to A50 which would incinerate Boris' credibility as his do or die promise to leave on 31 October would be junked.
But I do agree with you about the election. It comes, one way or another, with an extension. And this will be a challenge for the Great Man.
Corbyn could well be "PM by Christmas". I think when he said so at Glasto in 2017 he did mean this year.0 -
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealingMexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
0 -
Apropos of nothing I was on a Boris Bike yesterday and some random bloke (also on a bike) stopped beside me and said "Hello Christopher". He thought I was Christopher Nugee!!AlastairMeeks said:The sentencing remarks in the Carl Beech case:
https://twitter.com/JudiciaryUK/status/1154764198095798273
Slightly offended because surely Sir Christopher looks far wearier than I hope I did.0 -
Doesn't work, as designed, I assume.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/11547639409597931521 -
That'll be popular! Mine's a chlorinated chicken please.Alanbrooke said:
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealingMexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.0 -
Boris's credibility - already pretty low - would be shot to bits if he asks for a general election instead of delivering on his commitment to leave by 31 October. No ifs, no buts, leave on 31 October he said. Do or die. Anyway, there's precious little evidence that the Tories could win a majority at a GE now and calling one would lead to a massive round of bloodletting in the party if they try to get rid of the Gawkward squad as candidates.eek said:
What I'm trying to work out is the step after these:-anothernick said:
Don't see how Johnson can get to a Brexit GE without agreeing an A50 extension in advance of it, and that would send Farage and the ERG into full betrayal mode which would probably split the Tories and mean certain defeat for Boris.kinabalu said:
I agree.anothernick said:VONC if nothing else works. It's clear that some Tories will vote to bring down their own government if its the only way of stopping no deal. Though I suspect something slightly less drastic will be cooked up in Sept/Oct. I'm not an expert in procedure but at least 400 of 650 MPs, a huge majority in the Lords and a large majority of voters oppose no deal - the politics of that are clear. The Commons will find a way I have no doubt.
Come the autumn, 2 scenarios, (a) Johnson allows himself to be forced into an extension into 2020, (b) Brexit GE.
If (b) Johnson wins or he loses.
If he wins he has the authority to pass the WA - which he will since he is not serious about No Deal. This current stuff is for show.
If he loses, we are into Ref2 territory, which probably ends with Remain.
I see no route to No Deal other than accidental. I give it a 10% probability. I'm therefore laying it on betfair at 3.5. That's even better than it looks because the market is for 2019 only. No Deal in 2020 is a winner.
I have it as a toss up between the other 2 end states, Brexit via the WA, or Remain. 45% each.
But no, let's adjust that to 60/30 in favour of the WA.
The 2016 Ref said Leave and I have to believe that we eventually will.
IMHO Boris really does think the EU will blink and he has bet the farm on that. Some of his stupider followers seem to think he can go for a GE but as we discussed earlier there is no easy route to that - it would require opposition support and the price of that support would be an extension to A50.
Boris asks for a general election
Corbyn and co insist on an A50 extension before voting for it.
Boris says no
VoNC in Boris
A GONU is formed.
How does that GONU avoid Boris winning the next election? What do they have to do to avoid Boris creating a pact with Nigel...0 -
Or unless Farage wins an autumn GE with a majority.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1154766695057301504
Abolish Backstop Boris tells Merkel.
No Brexit it is then, unless he wins the autumn GE with a majority.0 -
-
youre eating them already, and infected eggs, donkey sold as beef, chemical prawns, water injected bacon and you really dont want to know about lettuce.Mexicanpete said:
That'll be popular! Mine's a chlorinated chicken please.Alanbrooke said:
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealingMexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
0 -
Boris Johnson is many things but he is not a moron. He may, however, be taking others for fools.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, it doesn't work.
Boris' plan is a falsehood. Either he doesn't intend to leave with no deal and his bluster is, er, bluster. Or he does and he wants to claim it's the EU's fault.
The latter might have weight if Boris had an alternative, or a plan to get something through the Commons. He doesn't. Maybe he will in the future, but so far I see no reason to change my opinion, namely that Boris is a moron.
...0 -
Boris is not a details man. He will have an overall plan - but I suspect that plan has assumptions in it that are incorrect even at first glance...AlastairMeeks said:
Boris Johnson is many things but he is not a moron. He may, however, be taking others for fools.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, it doesn't work.
Boris' plan is a falsehood. Either he doesn't intend to leave with no deal and his bluster is, er, bluster. Or he does and he wants to claim it's the EU's fault.
The latter might have weight if Boris had an alternative, or a plan to get something through the Commons. He doesn't. Maybe he will in the future, but so far I see no reason to change my opinion, namely that Boris is a moron.
...
Equally does Boris actually listen to people who say No to him? I don't see much history of it..0 -
Indeed.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Or unless Farage wins an autumn GE with a majority.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1154766695057301504
Abolish Backstop Boris tells Merkel.
No Brexit it is then, unless he wins the autumn GE with a majority.0 -
Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn.
Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal.
This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos.
Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies.
It's not very subtle but it may be effective.0 -
Lots, I should think. Welcome to the big bad world of social media microtargeting as in this 2-minute Sky News report with examples from Boris.justin124 said:
How many people are likely to see this?DecrepitJohnL said:Jeremy Corbyn might be biased but I don't think he is very impressed by Boris.
More significantly, perhaps, he calls for a referendum on Brexit or an election.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1154452449123622915
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3NyGs_LYus0 -
Mr. Meeks, his conduct as Foreign Secretary, and advocating for narrow self-interest a decision that will affect the nation for decades or centuries to come (and which he is unlikely to actually believe), adds credence to my view that Boris is a moron.
I do not, however, disregard that he is also full of shit.0 -
Only in London...TOPPING said:
Apropos of nothing I was on a Boris Bike yesterday and some random bloke (also on a bike) stopped beside me and said "Hello Christopher". He thought I was Christopher Nugee!!AlastairMeeks said:The sentencing remarks in the Carl Beech case:
https://twitter.com/JudiciaryUK/status/1154764198095798273
Slightly offended because surely Sir Christopher looks far wearier than I hope I did.0 -
But with hindsight, a more granular choice in 2016 might have been better.Philip_Thompson said:That's bonkers!
Remain and rejoice is a subset of remain.
Just as leave and EEA, leave and FTA, leave and WTO are all subsets of leave.
Leave. Repeat Leave. JFDI.
Leave in a calm orderly adult fashion, respecting the Union and the GFA.
Remain.
REMAIN & REJOICE.
By preference voting - e.g. AV.
Whatever won would then have been a clear and deliverable choice.
But no, Cameron knew best ...0 -
Well it did work the last time round.AlastairMeeks said:
Boris Johnson is many things but he is not a moron. He may, however, be taking others for fools.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, it doesn't work.
Boris' plan is a falsehood. Either he doesn't intend to leave with no deal and his bluster is, er, bluster. Or he does and he wants to claim it's the EU's fault.
The latter might have weight if Boris had an alternative, or a plan to get something through the Commons. He doesn't. Maybe he will in the future, but so far I see no reason to change my opinion, namely that Boris is a moron.
...0 -
Parliament not Cameron chose the question and anything more than a binary choice would have led to screams of outrage that their particular granular choice wasn't an option.kinabalu said:
But with hindsight, a more granular choice in 2016 might have been better.Philip_Thompson said:That's bonkers!
Remain and rejoice is a subset of remain.
Just as leave and EEA, leave and FTA, leave and WTO are all subsets of leave.
Leave. Repeat Leave. JFDI.
Leave in a calm orderly adult fashion, respecting the Union and the GFA.
Remain.
REMAIN & REJOICE.
By preference voting - e.g. AV.
Whatever won would then have been a clear and deliverable choice.
But no, Cameron knew best ...
We leave or we remain. How we leave or how we remain is then a matter for Parliament.1 -
Pleased that you agree the referendum was won under dubious circumstances and that leavers are general numbskulls and fuckwits.Philip_Thompson said:
Absolutely 100% agreed . . . So long as the referendum losers in Parliament don't pull the plug on us having a clean Brexit if there's no deal agreed.Nigel_Foremain said:
By a very small margin and under very dubious circumstances. Anyway, the numbskulls and fuckwits completely own it now. They cannot blame anyone for the inevitable car crash anymorePhilip_Thompson said:
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.williamglenn said:
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.Sandpit said:
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.Scott_P said:
An important part of therapy is owning up to reality. Maybe you can form "Numbskull Leavers Not-So Anonymous" where you can applaud each other for admitting you are extraordinarily politically and geopolitically dumb.0 -
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
0 -
Us having to implement the 2nd amendment would be...interesting...Mexicanpete said:
That'll be popular! Mine's a chlorinated chicken please.Alanbrooke said:
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealingMexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.0 -
Okay I've got a commons procedural question (annoyingly I've forgotten the name of the guy who wrote down our unwritten constitution)
If Commons votes against No Deal
What happens?
We have to ask for an extension? But then what if the EU refuses extension.
I think Halloween no-deal Brexit is still very likely0 -
Are you sure the timing of that works? What do you see as the dates of Step 1, Step 2 and the election?OnlyLivingBoy said:Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn.
Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal.
This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos.
Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies.
It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
I seem to remember Theresa May was viewed as a Machiavellian genius, moving her colleagues around the chess board like mere pawns in accordance with her secret master plan. But in the end it turned out she'd been absolutely clueless all along.
Is there any reason to think things are any different with Johnson?0 -
Erskine May!0
-
It's always when you give up on these mind questions that you get the answer I find0
-
Who is imposing it? And whose army will protect it?SouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.0 -
Amazed to basically agree for once.HYUFD said:
The No Deal diehards like Baker and Francois are basically Brexit Party anyway, even refusing to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 thus resulting in us still being in the EU.Scott_P said:
Much like the diehard Remainers like Greening and Grieve who voted against both the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal and are basically LDs who want to stop Brexit0 -
nothing much franklySouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.0 -
The EU can refuse an extension, and the only way around that would be for us to revoke.JBriskinindyref2 said:Okay I've got a commons procedural question (annoyingly I've forgotten the name of the guy who wrote down our unwritten constitution)
If Commons votes against No Deal
What happens?
We have to ask for an extension? But then what if the EU refuses extension.
I think Halloween no-deal Brexit is still very likely0 -
He has an alternative. A backstopless deal.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, it doesn't work.
Boris' plan is a falsehood. Either he doesn't intend to leave with no deal and his bluster is, er, bluster. Or he does and he wants to claim it's the EU's fault.
The latter might have weight if Boris had an alternative, or a plan to get something through the Commons. He doesn't. Maybe he will in the future, but so far I see no reason to change my opinion, namely that Boris is a moron.
...
If the EU insists on getting the backstop and we go to no deal then they get: no backstop, no money, disruption and a hard Irish border.
If the EU compromises they get: no backstop, lots of money, no disruption and an invisible Irish border.
There is no logical reason not to compromise.1 -
Are you extremely young or something, that you talk about Northern Ireland and armies with such gay abandon?MarqueeMark said:
Who is imposing it? And whose army will protect it?SouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.0 -
Really?Alanbrooke said:
nothing much franklySouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48934706
0 -
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.Alanbrooke said:
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealingMexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?0 -
Okay,Chris said:
The EU can refuse an extension, and the only way around that would be for us to revoke.JBriskinindyref2 said:Okay I've got a commons procedural question (annoyingly I've forgotten the name of the guy who wrote down our unwritten constitution)
If Commons votes against No Deal
What happens?
We have to ask for an extension? But then what if the EU refuses extension.
I think Halloween no-deal Brexit is still very likely
Has the commons not voted against No Deal yet? Did they get too frit or something.
They might get frit again.
Halloween No-deal Brexit Nailed On0 -
yesSouthamObserver said:
Really?Alanbrooke said:
nothing much franklySouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48934706
the whole thing is simply a crass negotiating ploy by people who should know better0 -
The EU will create one over time. It will also create one immediately at the entry points to the Singe Market that really matter to the UK.MarqueeMark said:
Who is imposing it? And whose army will protect it?SouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
0 -
Fair comment - the LD policy is:StuartDickson said:The Lib Dems have had half an hour to outline a five year programme... and managed to come up with one piece of legislation: PR. Which was the only well-known LD policy back in the 1980s.
You guys have a problem: we all know what you are against, Brexit. But what on earth are you for? Short and snappy, a la Tony. Don’t be shy.
1) We want a Second Referendum.
2) We're going to win it this time.
3) If we don't there'll be a third vote in 2025.
Whereas the SNP position is:
1) We want a Second Referendum.
2) We're going to win it this time.
3) If we don't there'll be a third vote in 2025.
I'm going to be cynical and then downright heretical for a moment. First the cynical bit - everybody supports democracy but only when it works for them. Anyone can shout to the roof tops about democracy and the democratic deficit when they have the votes and the voters on their side - that's why parties run to the voters these days because it's so much easier and quicker than have the voters run to you.
Now, the heretical - majorities aren't always right. Indeed, I define a majority as the largest group of people wrong about any given issue at any given time. Does majoritarian rule work in everyone's interests or simply in the interests of that majority. Why work out a principle or an ideology - let's just see what most people like and follow that. Why choose the candidate who would be the best Prime Minister - why not just choose the one everybody likes? Churchill was right about democracy but the truth now is policy is dictated by majorities delivered by polls organised by sampling and focus groups. What do the key group of swing voters actually want - let's offer them that and they might come our way? What do minority groups want - who cares?0 -
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.Mexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.0 -
Of course. Of course. ROFL.Alanbrooke said:
yesSouthamObserver said:
Really?Alanbrooke said:
nothing much franklySouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48934706
the whole thing is simply a crass negotiating ploy by people who should know better
0 -
The Russian Federation?ralphmalph said:
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.Alanbrooke said:
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealingMexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?0 -
Never buy iceberg.Alanbrooke said:
youre eating them already, and infected eggs, donkey sold as beef, chemical prawns, water injected bacon and you really dont want to know about lettuce.Mexicanpete said:
That'll be popular! Mine's a chlorinated chicken please.Alanbrooke said:
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealingMexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.0 -
Precisely. They should feel ashamed of themselves.Alanbrooke said:
yesSouthamObserver said:
Really?Alanbrooke said:
nothing much franklySouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48934706
the whole thing is simply a crass negotiating ploy by people who should know better0 -
That seems like the most likely outcome to me. I think it would be a disaster, but I am sceptical about then prospects of avoiding it.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Okay,Chris said:
The EU can refuse an extension, and the only way around that would be for us to revoke.JBriskinindyref2 said:Okay I've got a commons procedural question (annoyingly I've forgotten the name of the guy who wrote down our unwritten constitution)
If Commons votes against No Deal
What happens?
We have to ask for an extension? But then what if the EU refuses extension.
I think Halloween no-deal Brexit is still very likely
Has the commons not voted against No Deal yet? Did they get too frit or something.
They might get frit again.
Halloween No-deal Brexit Nailed On0 -
believe what you willSouthamObserver said:
Of course. Of course. ROFL.Alanbrooke said:
yesSouthamObserver said:
Really?Alanbrooke said:
nothing much franklySouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48934706
the whole thing is simply a crass negotiating ploy by people who should know better0 -
I've read that rat's meat tastes rather like chicken.Philip_Thompson said:
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.Mexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.0 -
And in the meantime the opposition has gone on holiday giving Boris and his cabinet six weeks to firm up their GE manifesto and start recruiting the 20,000 police officers.OnlyLivingBoy said:Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn.
Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal.
This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos.
Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies.
It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
Boris is going to be in the media virtually everyday almost unchallenged
I am very wary of Boris hard ball attitude to the EU. It is a high stakes gamble and no one can possibly tell who is going to cave in. The one thing is certain, on the 1st November the EU will either have to install a border or put in place alternative arrangements if we no deal
I cannot believe that even the EU would be so unwise to be seen putting a hard border in Ireland
Many on here are defending their entrenched views of how each side with react to this crisis but in truth no one on PB can say with any certainty how this will unfold.
I for one am keeping an open mind0 -
An offer you can’t refuse.Mexicanpete said:
The Russian Federation?ralphmalph said:
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.Alanbrooke said:
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealingMexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?0 -
Bugger all.SouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.0
This discussion has been closed.