politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just 8 days after he enters Number 10 PM Johnson will face his

HYUFD said:

On the current swing from the latest Comres poll with May as leader the LDs would indeed take Brecon and Radnor with 38% (ie the same number as signed the recall petition) to just 32% for the Tories.

However, based on the Comres hypothetical figures with Boris as PM and Tory leader the LDs and Tories would be tied on 39% each giving Boris the chance of a shock Tory hold and a huge morale boost to the Tories

Problem is postal votes will already be coming in by the time Bozo is PM . No deal won’t play well with the farming communities there .

nico67 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

viewcode said:

nico67 said:

Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .

This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.

I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit

This is not a one way street

But propping up the Tories will see their careers ending anyway . The same for Tories, voting against their own government is career ending .

Some of those Labour Leavers though will not support the Tories. Can you imagine people like Skinner or Campbell supporting the Tories .

We are in a highly unpredictable situation and loyal voting cannot be taken for granted by either of the main parties

StuartDickson said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

NickPalmer said:

StuartDickson said:

Just been digging through the ComRes tables. Fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:

Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election:
Conservatives 57%
Labour 20%
Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP)
Did not vote 7%
Lib Dems 3%
SNP 0.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.3%

This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.

Table 30, page 34

https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Final-Tables-Sunday-Express-VI.pdf

Interesting - what really surprises me is the low non-voter % for BXP. That suggests real mainstream inroads, rather than the sort of "for two pins I'd vote for a change" type who sometimes gave UKIP high ratings. Basically, as your figures show, they are mostly taking a chunk of regular Tory voters. Whether that remains true is likely to decide the election if it's any time soon.

One of the false assumptions of 2017, common on PB, was that the Kippers would all go Tory. The same may well be true of the BXP.

Also worth noting that current Conservative supporters are only 65:35 to Leave, and that's going by their 2016 vote rather than current opinion. There are a lot of Tory remainers there to lose.

Wow. That is an amazing statistic. Are 35% of current Conservative supporters still in favour of Remaining members of the EU? That is huge, and actually hard to believe in the current bonkers climate.

If true (what do the other pollsters say?), it would mean that even if Boris succeeds in his key goal of winning back Brexit Party supporters, he will simultaneously piss off enough current Conservative supporters to negate any gains.

I’d hate to be a smart Tory analyst trying to explain this to The Clown. I just don’t think he is the type of personality to appreciate being shown that there are errors in his homework.

Given 57% of Brexit Party voters voted Tory in 2017 but only 35% of the Tory vote is still made up of Remainers it is clear where the gains are, if Remainers are still voting Tory they clearly would not touch Corbyn if their life depended on it anyway, at most they would go LD

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1151089142857654277

Boris' position has always been he wants an Australian style points system to focus immigration on need, not no immigration at all

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

On the current swing from the latest Comres poll with May as leader the LDs would indeed take Brecon and Radnor with 38% (ie the same number as signed the recall petition) to just 32% for the Tories.

However, based on the Comres hypothetical figures with Boris as PM and Tory leader the LDs and Tories would be tied on 39% each giving Boris the chance of a shock Tory hold and a huge morale boost to the Tories

Bear in mind that by-elections routinely result in a swing against the government about 1.4 times the size of that implied by the polls at the time - presumably because of the greater incentives to protest or abstain (or smaller disincentives against doing so), for people who might be inclined towards the government in a lesser-of-two-evils kind of way.

Few by elections take place a week after a new PM with a poll bounce though

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

felix said:

With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.

I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.

Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?

If I’m really unlucky.

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

viewcode said:

nico67 said:

Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .

This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.

I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit

This is not a one way street

If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.

So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.

I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal

I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on

I don’t think the 26 are in the bag yet, but there is certainly a chance. Boundless BINO puts Brexit to bed for the rest of the term (whether short or long) and would be easy to undo if a Remain-leaning government follows the Tories. There’ll be some grumbling but it would probably fly. Unless the ERG vote it down.

Further hints that this may be in the offing makes £/$ a very attractive proposition.

I think a deal is more than possible and that would give an instant boost to the pound

I am not saying it is odds on but I believe it is much more likely than no deal

NickPalmer said:

viewcode said:

justin124 said:

nico67 said:

Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .

That would be the end of her career as a Labour MP.

I thought it was an automatic deselection? Happy to be contradicted if wrong.

Don't think it's even occurred to us as a possibility, so there's no rule that I'm aware of. But deselection would follow as night follows day.

I would have thought that expulsion would be a more likely consequence than direct deselection?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

viewcode said:

nico67 said:

Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .

This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.

I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit

This is not a one way street

If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.

So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.

I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal

I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on

You keep saying that but I have always backed the WDA, I am not Mark Francois

justin124 said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

felix said:

With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.

I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.

Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?

Hallam is ,of course, a traditional Tory seat too!

Yes but TSE is now a traditional LD!!

justin124 said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

felix said:

With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.

I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.

Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?

Hallam is ,of course, a traditional Tory seat too!

Used to be. I don't have detailed knowledge but my impression is that the local Con presence is much withered. Perhaps had the LDs not made such an impact, it might well be Con now but it's not that kind of 2-party fight.

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

On the current swing from the latest Comres poll with May as leader the LDs would indeed take Brecon and Radnor with 38% (ie the same number as signed the recall petition) to just 32% for the Tories.

However, based on the Comres hypothetical figures with Boris as PM and Tory leader the LDs and Tories would be tied on 39% each giving Boris the chance of a shock Tory hold and a huge morale boost to the Tories

Bear in mind that by-elections routinely result in a swing against the government about 1.4 times the size of that implied by the polls at the time - presumably because of the greater incentives to protest or abstain (or smaller disincentives against doing so), for people who might be inclined towards the government in a lesser-of-two-evils kind of way.

Few by elections take place a week after a new PM with a poll bounce though

I recall the Luton by-election held on the same day as the Kinross & West Perthshire by-election in November 1963. The latter enabled Alec Douglas-Home to return to the Commons having become PM a few weeks earlier. Luton was a Labour gain.

So Home did win one by election then on becoming PM in a rural seat not dissimilar to Brecon

justin124 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

justin124 said:

viewcode said:

justin124 said:

nico67 said:

Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .

That would be the end of her career as a Labour MP.

I thought it was an automatic deselection? Happy to be contradicted if wrong.

Effectively it would be! However, having just watched the clip I suspect she misspoke there. She is clearly now prepared to support No Deal rather than Remain , but when asked whether she would support a VNOC her reply was 'I don't know'. I am sure the consequences of that will soon be brought to her attention.

And you think she doesn't know that.

As I say, in the pressure of an interview she probably misspoke!

And then she may not have.

AndyJS said:

"Trump is playing the Democrats at their own race game
Melanie Phillips

President’s hostile tweets turned his opponents’ obsession with identity politics against them" (£)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/trump-is-playing-the-democrats-at-their-own-race-game-3kl9nksdz

Yep, it is a trap. Dems need avoid falling into this one. Let Biden and Pelosi guide strategy.

Dems need to talk about Trump and healthcare from dawn til dusk. And forget about a fully public, single service. Talk about keeping ObamaCare and expanding.

Scare enough people about losing their health insurance and the election is won.

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

felix said:

With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.

I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.

Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?

Hallam is ,of course, a traditional Tory seat too!

Yes but TSE is now a traditional LD!!

No I am not.

Theuniondivvie said:

Philip_Thompson said:

"Only Northern Ireland" makes it OK?

Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom. Unless or until they choose to leave the UK, that is too much.

If in order to get a trade deal with the USA we were to let the USA effectively annex Scotland, granting the US Congress the right to change Scottish laws without any say of the Scottish Parliament or Scottish voters would that be acceptable? Should we shrug our shoulders and say "Its only Scotland"?

For an English nationalist you seem to blow curiously hot and cold on the subject of the UK. In any case when it comes to winning their preshuss, polling suggests that the attitude of hard core Brexiteers' (of which I'd assumed you're one) seems to be very much "It's only Scotland", and "It's only NI" for that matter.

I am not a hardcore Brexiteer though my principled objection to the backstop forces me to side with them at the minute it seems. I am a democrat first and foremost. For as long as the UK exists I want the best for all my compatriots - including the Northern Irish and Scots.

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

felix said:

With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.

I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.

Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?

Hallam is ,of course, a traditional Tory seat too!

Yes but TSE is now a traditional LD!!

As are you, as a Remainer.

Yet I now back Brexit, Deal or No Deal.

HYUFD said:

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

felix said:

With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.

I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.

Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?

Hallam is ,of course, a traditional Tory seat too!

Yes but TSE is now a traditional LD!!

As are you, as a Remainer.

Yet I now back Brexit, Deal or No Deal.

Not through conviction.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

viewcode said:

nico67 said:

Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .

This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.

I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit

This is not a one way street

If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.

So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.

I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal

I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on

Why would anybody change their vote over a "cosmetic" change?

https://twitter.com/Rob_Merrick/status/1151094008808116224?s=20

Sean_F said:

StuartDickson said:

Grieve: senior Tories may have to vote down Johnson government

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/16/grieve-senior-tories-may-have-to-vote-down-johnson-government

At an emotional level, Grieve has long since ceased to be a Conservative.

Or possibly he feels at an emotional level that the Current Tory party has long since ceased to be Conservative.

rottenborough said:

viewcode said:

nico67 said:

Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .

This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.

Her career would be finished in a moment. Deselection within days.

Hasn't she already announced she is moving on at the next election?

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1151072205700288512?s=20

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1151072755602927616?s=20

I suppose ultimately it depends whether MPs believe Johnson's bluff (or is it?) any more than they believed May's.

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

viewcode said:

nico67 said:

Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .

This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.

I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit

This is not a one way street

If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.

So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.

BINO makes so much sense for so many people. If we really are going to move away from our relationship with Europe it is a better first step than something more radical. If you want to honour the result with doing any damage it is the logical thing to do. If you want to rejoin as soon as possible it leaves the route back in open. The only good reason for opposing it is if you are an ultra-remainer and think the chaos strengthens your hand. I don't think even that stands up to scrutiny mind you.

The_Taxman said:

MarqueeMark said:

StuartDickson said:

Grieve: senior Tories may have to vote down Johnson government

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/16/grieve-senior-tories-may-have-to-vote-down-johnson-government

But in doing so, they are not Tories.....

The Tories are not the same party they were even a few years ago. I used to be a member and vote for them because I thought they were best on the economy, defence, projecting UK power on the world stage etc. But Brexit threatens the economy and I cannot vote for that! If you think pulling up the drawbridge from voters like me is going to help the Tories, you are in for a nasty surprise!

Another perhaps relevant point for the medium term is that even to the extent that they are potentially exchanging one set of voters for another, what they are also likely doing is replacing a pretty reliable voting block, who were pretty “low maintenance” in that they were content with politicians who were broadly competent, offered stability and were very suspicious of embarking on radical change, with a voting block who have very different expectations (or are even ideological single issue voters). The new voters are probably less detached in background from the party that will be seeking to serve them which ultimately will make it harder to understand and meet their needs/expectations.

As you say, not a good place to be.

The_Taxman said:

The Tories are not the same party they were even a few years ago. I used to be a member and vote for them because I thought they were best on the economy, defence, projecting UK power on the world stage etc. But Brexit threatens the economy and I cannot vote for that! If you think pulling up the drawbridge from voters like me is going to help the Tories, you are in for a nasty surprise!

Recent converts to the "new" Tory party tell people like you to eff off. Problem is, they seem to be saying this to a lot of once-Tory supporters and in the end might well realise that once such folk have indeed effed off, then that will leave a small rump group thousands of miles from power.

Recidivist said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

viewcode said:

nico67 said:

Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .

This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.

I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit

This is not a one way street

If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.

So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.

BINO makes so much sense for so many people. If we really are going to move away from our relationship with Europe it is a better first step than something more radical. If you want to honour the result with doing any damage it is the logical thing to do. If you want to rejoin as soon as possible it leaves the route back in open. The only good reason for opposing it is if you are an ultra-remainer and think the chaos strengthens your hand. I don't think even that stands up to scrutiny mind you.

BINO/Endless transition makes plenty of sense, except for those wedded for and against the flag with the 12 yellow stars. So it probably won't happen. We can hope though.

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal

I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on

So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.

Genius.

Well they are idiots, after all.

Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.

Na, they won't understand its subtle complexities.

Phew. Now all we need to do is to make sure the EU doesn't get wind of this and we'll be home and hosed.

Pulpstar said:

Recidivist said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

viewcode said:

nico67 said:

Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .

This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.

I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit

This is not a one way street

If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.

So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.

BINO makes so much sense for so many people. If we really are going to move away from our relationship with Europe it is a better first step than something more radical. If you want to honour the result with doing any damage it is the logical thing to do. If you want to rejoin as soon as possible it leaves the route back in open. The only good reason for opposing it is if you are an ultra-remainer and think the chaos strengthens your hand. I don't think even that stands up to scrutiny mind you.

BINO/Endless transition makes plenty of sense, except for those wedded for and against the flag with the 12 yellow stars. So it probably won't happen. We can hope though.

It's such a shame because the simple fact remains that the WA was just about the most pragmatic, not to say elegant way of leaving the EU that would have allowed a sensible set of negotiations over the following 5-10 years which would have left us out and at a negotiated position on any and all of the tricky elements.

As you say, with hindsight, it was just too much to expect from our representatives.

The ONS released their mid-year population estimates last month. They have enhanced their dynamic charts:

https://tinyurl.com/yy7rrazv

https://tinyurl.com/y4mr58rs

So you can now see where people are moving from and to within England and Wales.

Their Excel analysis tool is very impressive too:

https://tinyurl.com/y4bc5jpd

nico67 said:

HYUFD said:

On the current swing from the latest Comres poll with May as leader the LDs would indeed take Brecon and Radnor with 38% (ie the same number as signed the recall petition) to just 32% for the Tories.

However, based on the Comres hypothetical figures with Boris as PM and Tory leader the LDs and Tories would be tied on 39% each giving Boris the chance of a shock Tory hold and a huge morale boost to the Tories

Problem is postal votes will already be coming in by the time Bozo is PM . No deal won’t play well with the farming communities there .

How many hotly contested by elections follow national polling?

Chris said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal

I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on

So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.

Genius.

Well they are idiots, after all.

Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.

Na, they won't understand its subtle complexities.

Phew. Now all we need to do is to make sure the EU doesn't get wind of this and we'll be home and hosed.

It's in english.

That might work the other way round, but "furriners" generally read and write English at least as good as the natives does.

Yes, it was a joke.

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

Recidivist said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

viewcode said:

nico67 said:

Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .

This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.

I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit

This is not a one way street

If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.

So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.

BINO makes so much sense for so many people. If we really are going to move away from our relationship with Europe it is a better first step than something more radical. If you want to honour the result with doing any damage it is the logical thing to do. If you want to rejoin as soon as possible it leaves the route back in open. The only good reason for opposing it is if you are an ultra-remainer and think the chaos strengthens your hand. I don't think even that stands up to scrutiny mind you.

BINO/Endless transition makes plenty of sense, except for those wedded for and against the flag with the 12 yellow stars. So it probably won't happen. We can hope though.

It's such a shame because the simple fact remains that the WA was just about the most pragmatic, not to say elegant way of leaving the EU that would have allowed a sensible set of negotiations over the following 5-10 years which would have left us out and at a negotiated position on any and all of the tricky elements.

It may well stand in history as the finest achievement of the two foreign secretaries concerned.

RobD said:

Chris said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal

I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on

So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.

Genius.

Well they are idiots, after all.

Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.

Na, they won't understand its subtle complexities.

Phew. Now all we need to do is to make sure the EU doesn't get wind of this and we'll be home and hosed.

It's in english.

That might work the other way round, but "furriners" generally read and write English at least as good as the natives does.

Yes, it was a joke.

Sorry, my mistake. With Brexit, I always find it hard to tell which bits are jokes.

Philip_Thompson said:

Do the ERG have a choice? No doubt many gave Raab or McVey their first choice but they have been eliminated. Given the choice of Boris or Hunt it clearly has to be Boris.

Hunt is more likely to "deliver Brexit" than BoZo, so yes, the ERG will choose BoZo

Chris said:

RobD said:

Chris said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal

I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on

So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.

Genius.

Well they are idiots, after all.

Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.

Na, they won't understand its subtle complexities.

Phew. Now all we need to do is to make sure the EU doesn't get wind of this and we'll be home and hosed.

It's in english.

That might work the other way round, but "furriners" generally read and write English at least as good as the natives does.

Yes, it was a joke.

Sorry, my mistake. With Brexit, I always find it hard to tell which bits are jokes.

The funny bits of Brexit are those that wind up Remainers.

They are usually written on a bus, just in case they miss them.

FF43 said:

Sean_F said:

StuartDickson said:

Grieve: senior Tories may have to vote down Johnson government

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/16/grieve-senior-tories-may-have-to-vote-down-johnson-government

At an emotional level, Grieve has long since ceased to be a Conservative.

At every level the Conservatives have long ceased being conservative. This time it really is a case of "I didn't leave my party. My party left me."

Times change, and the Conservatives have to change with the times. The voters aren't interested in an unideological party that represents the great and the good, any longer.

dixiedean said:

Just catching up with Boris' latest Telegraph column. Wherein his knowledge of Churchill enables him to discern the cure for mental ill health.
Astounding that whole armies of scientists, researchers and qualified people, not to mention sufferers, have been wasting their time.
Why didn't they simply ask Boris what Churchill did?

Boris is turning out to be very similar to our very own SeanT. Have they ever been seen in a room together?

MarqueeMark said:

Chris said:

RobD said:

Chris said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal

I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on

So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.

Genius.

Well they are idiots, after all.

Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.

Na, they won't understand its subtle complexities.

Phew. Now all we need to do is to make sure the EU doesn't get wind of this and we'll be home and hosed.

It's in english.

That might work the other way round, but "furriners" generally read and write English at least as good as the natives does.

Yes, it was a joke.

Sorry, my mistake. With Brexit, I always find it hard to tell which bits are jokes.

The funny bits of Brexit are those that wind up Remainers.

They are usually written on a bus, just in case they miss them.

Certainly I've noticed that trolls generally think it's funny to wind people up.

malcolmg said:

justin124 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Very good jobs and wages figures just out. Real-term pay (adjusted for inflation) up 1.4% compared with a year ago,. Unemployment at 3.8% is best figure since 1974.

Those are stonkingly good figures when you consider that both the UK economy and the world economies are not doing particularly well. It shows that the structural changes and sound economic management of the last 9 years have really brought benefits. A pity that it's probably all going to be thrown away.

But over 1.5 million are now part-time self employed. How much of that is voluntary? Very different to the mid-1970s.

Also how many million on zero hours contracts

The statistics say very few.

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Jessop, a cruel comparison!

(Snip).

Yeah, I should apologise to Boris.

There are actually a fair few similarities between Boris and SeanT; although it's perhaps best left to the reader to work them out ...

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

felix said:

With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.

I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.

Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?

If I’m really unlucky.

Unlucky it is.
"I am going nowhere, and I'm here for you whether you want me here for you or not", he said.
"With the support of those around me and with renewed vigour, I'm standing again next time."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-48981885

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal

I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on

So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.

Genius.

Well they are idiots, after all.

Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.

I didn't know they could read !!!!