With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.
It's the slow undercurrent of people thinking like this that the politicians aren't noticing.
Boris's top-secret masterplan looks suspiciously like what I've been advocating on pb: massively extend the transition period; punt the backstop to appease ERG; remove the hard border for Ireland; lose the Irish Sea border for the DUP; lose TM's red lines to persuade the EU. Either I've just doxed myself as an old Etonian icing sugar addict or fools seldom differ.
Very good jobs and wages figures just out. Real-term pay (adjusted for inflation) up 1.4% compared with a year ago,. Unemployment at 3.8% is best figure since 1974.
Those are stonkingly good figures when you consider that both the UK economy and the world economies are not doing particularly well. It shows that the structural changes and sound economic management of the last 9 years have really brought benefits. A pity that it's probably all going to be thrown away.
Or it demonstrates that the fears for leaving and the uncertainty it is meant to be causing are overblown.
Not really. The main effect of the uncertainty so far has been on investment (in fact it might even have marginally helped the employment figures, as firms hire more staff rather than invest in new equipment and facilities). That doesn't bode well for the medium term.
My employer earns its income from other companies capital expenditure, so we're having a rough time - but it does mean that our potential clients can't reduce headcount after simplifying their data handling.
With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.
I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.
£44k fine for Britain First for breaking basically all the rules.
These fines are so ridiculously small. If they want to do serious enforcement the system should be: 1) Fines equal say 3x or 5x the total amount raised/spent 2) During the campaign the parties should have to carry insurance against the possibility that they'll later be fined
Covering fines is one of those things the insurance industry really hates doing: partially because it's bad publicity, but mostly due to moral hazard.
The latter is also a good reason not to require this in the first place: do we really want to reduce campaign groups' incentive to follow the laws properly? The way to go is to make the directors/trustees/whatever personally responsible for wrongdoing, including the possibility of jail time.
Just been digging through the ComRes tables. Fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:
Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election: Conservatives 57% Labour 20% Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP) Did not vote 7% Lib Dems 3% SNP 0.6% Plaid Cymru 0.3%
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
One of the false assumptions of 2017, common on PB, was that the Kippers would all go Tory. The same may well be true of the BXP.
Also worth noting that current Conservative supporters are only 65:35 to Leave, and that's going by their 2016 vote rather than current opinion. There are a lot of Tory remainers there to lose.
Wow. That is an amazing statistic. Are 35% of current Conservative supporters still in favour of Remaining members of the EU? That is huge, and actually hard to believe in the current bonkers climate.
If true (what do the other pollsters say?), it would mean that even if Boris succeeds in his key goal of winning back Brexit Party supporters, he will simultaneously piss off enough current Conservative supporters to negate any gains.
I’d hate to be a smart Tory analyst trying to explain this to The Clown. I just don’t think he is the type of personality to appreciate being shown that there are errors in his homework.
YouGov have similar figures and also have 29% of people currently intending to vote Tory who believe Brexit was the wrong decision.
I do occasionally wonder whether Boris is on an all-out mission to say anything he needs to get 160k party members on-side, before a screeching handbrake turn to appeal to the wider Tory electorate (and more) thereafter. But Farage would have him for breakfast in the current climate.
I'm glad I'm not involved in charting the Tories' long-term future. I'm not sure I see many routes out of this which don't involve severe holing in the vicinity of the water line.
Captain Boris: the worst navigator in hostile waters since Edward Smith.
Who was the last significant politician to do a drastic handbrake-turn the second they got into office? I know there are examples, but my memory is drawing a blank.
Very good jobs and wages figures just out. Real-term pay (adjusted for inflation) up 1.4% compared with a year ago,. Unemployment at 3.8% is best figure since 1974.
Those are stonkingly good figures when you consider that both the UK economy and the world economies are not doing particularly well. It shows that the structural changes and sound economic management of the last 9 years have really brought benefits. A pity that it's probably all going to be thrown away.
But over 1.5 million are now part-time self employed. How much of that is voluntary? Very different to the mid-1970s.
Not to disagree with anything you've said, but the real issue lies one step up, with foreign states using the Palestinian cause to fight a proxy war against Israel (or possibly the US). This is turn makes it almost impossible for Israel to negotiate seriously with them (not that the current government has much interest in doing so in any case).
Corbyn claiming to want to help the Palestinian people while supporting the Iranians is one of those ironies he presumably would understand, being properly British and all.
Both the Palestinians and Iran are being oppressed by the imperialist capitalist running dogs the USA, ie the Jews.
Very good jobs and wages figures just out. Real-term pay (adjusted for inflation) up 1.4% compared with a year ago,. Unemployment at 3.8% is best figure since 1974.
Those are stonkingly good figures when you consider that both the UK economy and the world economies are not doing particularly well. It shows that the structural changes and sound economic management of the last 9 years have really brought benefits. A pity that it's probably all going to be thrown away.
But over 1.5 million are now part-time self employed. How much of that is voluntary? Very different to the mid-1970s.
Exactly. In my experience, most people want a regular, steady job. An employment contract with the security that entails. Self-employment is only suited to certain niche personality types.
Richard, do you concede that a lot of the involuntarily self-employed are actually miserable? Is misery a good long-term goal?
If politicians treated the vote as a cry for help from these areas, then something might happen.
But the most likely vehicle for that is a social democratic/moderate Labour government. Under Corbyn they are away with the fairies, chasing bonkers ideas about Israel and wasting money on middle class undergrads.
Funny how two people can read the same thing and come to a totally different conclusion. I read that and thought, Labour's last manifesto sounds on the money.
*Big investment in infrastructure *National Education Service for skills *Workers' rights/against zero-hours contracts *Refocus on manufacturing and away from London *More money on police and public services
Boris's top-secret masterplan looks suspiciously like what I've been advocating on pb: massively extend the transition period; punt the backstop to appease ERG; remove the hard border for Ireland; lose the Irish Sea border for the DUP; lose TM's red lines to persuade the EU. Either I've just doxed myself as an icing sugar addict or fools seldom differ.
TBH I don't think the DUP would accept the backstop in any form, however far in the future it might be punted. And a massively extended vassalage period would force the ERG to place the promised spear in a sensitive part of Boris's anatomy.
With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.
I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.
Safe Labour for me judging by the locals, though if Farage does well the Brexit party could come ~ 5000 short here or so. I don' think the Tories will do as well as 17 here.
Jezz. You won't persuade the hoarde to stop talking about Corbyn and anti semitism while it is in their interest to do so. Most people will have made their minds up about him and for what it's worth I don't believe more than a tiny minority believe him to be racist. He's a poor politician badly advised which is why he's allowed the smear to waste so much of his time
He's been told explicitly by numerous members of his own party what he has to do to stop the attacks coming. Why do you think he refuses to listen?
OT. Because it is much more complicated than most people believe.
This is lovely, but it has precisely nothing to do with his office interfering with what are supposed to be independent complaints procedures.
By the way, it's really not that hard. Criticising the Israeli government is totally fine (it puts you on the same platform as a solid half of all Israelis for a start). Calling for the violent destruction of Israel (and defending/associating with those who do), clearly isn't. Ditto bringing up 1930s era conspiracy theories about Jews controlling the banks/media/everything else.
Sure, there's a grey area in the middle, and it's difficult to find the precise line without getting into serious trouble, but a) there's been enough out of Labour members in recent years that's clearly over the line for this not to matter, and b) you have to ask yourself why Corbyn and his associates are so desperate to continue inhabiting the grey area, given how much trouble it's causing them.
My guess is because politics is a competitive business and you don't admit to something that you don't believe to be true and which is being pedalled by people with ill will. His mistake was allowing himself to be dragged into it though it was difficult to avoid. In a mud wrestle with people like Guido you'll always lose because he's an accomplished mud wrestler and is not scrutinised.
i feel sorry for corbyn. A parasite has attached itself to him. It lives in dark corners and has all the time in the world. Corbyn has to do everything in public. A five year old tweet by someone nobody's ever heard of is OK for a smear.' He knew someone who knew someone who shared a platform with....'
Has any politician not done that? I saw Mrs May sharing a platform with Trump who shared one with Duterte and even Corbyn couldn't compete with that. His problem is he sypathises with the Palestinians as do many on the left and to rid himself of the parasite he believes he has to renounce them. This is his dilemma. The rest is window dressing.
Boris's top-secret masterplan looks suspiciously like what I've been advocating on pb: massively extend the transition period; punt the backstop to appease ERG; remove the hard border for Ireland; lose the Irish Sea border for the DUP; lose TM's red lines to persuade the EU. Either I've just doxed myself as an icing sugar addict or fools seldom differ.
TBH I don't think the DUP would accept the backstop in any form, however far in the future it might be punted. And a massively extended vassalage period would force the ERG to place the promised spear in a sensitive part of Boris's anatomy.
But will it cease to be vassalage if it is implemented by someone who "believes" hard enough? We shall see.
Boris's top-secret masterplan looks suspiciously like what I've been advocating on pb: massively extend the transition period; punt the backstop to appease ERG; remove the hard border for Ireland; lose the Irish Sea border for the DUP; lose TM's red lines to persuade the EU. Either I've just doxed myself as an old Etonian icing sugar addict or fools seldom differ.
But do we know if this would satisfy the ERG? They strike me as being unhinged enough to defeat MV4.
Captain Boris: the worst navigator in hostile waters since Edward Smith.
Who was the last significant politician to do a drastic handbrake-turn the second they got into office? I know there are examples, but my memory is drawing a blank.
Heath did a pretty rapid and complete U-turn on Selsdon Man proto-Thatcherite policies, but if certainly wasn't the second he got into office.
@Richard_Nabavi Plenty has been said and written about the ERG, but I genuinely question how many politicians on either side have actually put the national interest bearing in mind the probable votes of the rest of parliament first.
Nick Boles is one but I have to exclude Lisa Nandy and Dominic Grieve for instance as they didn't vote to pass the WA.
Very few. The SNP opposed the WA because they oppose everything and want to trigger independence. Labour opposed it for purely cynical party-political reasons. The DUP opposed it for reasons no-one can understand. The LibDems are just about the only party which opposed it for a sensible reason, and they have been fairly consistent.
The DUP opposed it for very sensible reasons. I believe a majority of unionists in NI oppose it.
Do you really not understand their concerns? I do.
i feel sorry for corbyn. A parasite has attached itself to him. It lives in dark corners and has all the time in the world. Corbyn has to do everything in public. A five year old tweet by someone nobody's ever heard of is OK for a smear.' He knew someone who knew someone who shared a platform with....'
Has any politician not done that?
Ummm, no.
Corbyn's problem is that he actually did those things.
He did lay a wreath for terrorists. Then denied it.
@Richard_Nabavi Plenty has been said and written about the ERG, but I genuinely question how many politicians on either side have actually put the national interest bearing in mind the probable votes of the rest of parliament first.
Nick Boles is one but I have to exclude Lisa Nandy and Dominic Grieve for instance as they didn't vote to pass the WA.
Very few. The SNP opposed the WA because they oppose everything and want to trigger independence. Labour opposed it for purely cynical party-political reasons. The DUP opposed it for reasons no-one can understand. The LibDems are just about the only party which opposed it for a sensible reason, and they have been fairly consistent.
A tad bitter Richard. The Scottish National Party have been even more consistent than the Liberal Democrats. We opposed David Cameron’s daft referendum legislation. The Lib Dems didn’t.
We are the most consistently pro-EU party.
Of course we want to trigger independence. We are not exactly shy in emphasising that issue. But we hardly “oppose everything”. We have been in government for twelve years. As a government you only survive and thrive if you implement a consistently positive legislative programme. The c40% support shows that a lot of Scots appreciate our work. And a big thank you to the Greens for giving us the essential parliamentary support, particularly at Budget time.
I believe the SNP favoured leaving the EEC at the time of the 1975 Referendum. Jim Sillars still favours Brexit.
Jezz. You won't persuade the hoarde to stop talking about Corbyn and anti semitism while it is in their interest to do so. Most people will have made their minds up about him and for what it's worth I don't believe more than a tiny minority believe him to be racist. He's a poor politician badly advised which is why he's allowed the smear to waste so much of his time
He's been told explicitly by numerous members of his own party what he has to do to stop the attacks coming. Why do you think he refuses to listen?
OT. Because it is much more complicated than most people believe.
This is lovely, but it has precisely nothing to do with his office interfering with what are supposed to be independent complaints procedures.
By the way, it's really not that hard. Criticising the Israeli government is totally fine (it puts you on the same platform as a solid half of all Israelis for a start). Calling for the violent destruction of Israel (and defending/associating with those who do), clearly isn't. Ditto bringing up 1930s era conspiracy theories about Jews controlling the banks/media/everything else.
Sure, there's a grey area in the middle, and it's difficult to find the precise line without getting into serious trouble, but a) there's been enough out of Labour members in recent years that's clearly over the line for this not to matter, and b) you have to ask yourself why Corbyn and his associates are so desperate to continue inhabiting the grey area, given how much trouble it's causing them.
My guess is because politics is a competitive business and you don't admit to something that you don't believe to be true and which is being pedalled by people with ill will. His mistake was allowing himself to be dragged into it though it was difficult to avoid. In a mud wrestle with people like Guido you'll always lose because he's an accomplished mud wrestler and is not scrutinised.
i feel sorry for corbyn. A parasite has attached itself to him. It lives in dark corners and has all the time in the world. Corbyn has to do everything in public. A five year old tweet by someone nobody's ever heard of is OK for a smear.' He knew someone who knew someone who shared a platform with....'
Has any politician not done that? I saw Mrs May sharing a platform with Trump who shared one with Duterte and even Corbyn couldn't compete with that. His problem is he sypathises with the Palestinians as do many on the left and to rid himself of the parasite he has to renounce them. This is his dilemma. The rest is window dressing.
With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.
I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.
I've been making the journey from "lifelong Tory voter" to "LDs in the locals, spoiled ballot papers in the GE" (2015, and *nearly* voted LD in 2017).
Our local Labour MP has consistently voted in a remain-y fashion against the whip (Cambridge), and I am now torn as to whether to vote for him, or vote LD in an attempt to maximise their influence in a hung parliament.
I cannot see the circumstance in which I would vote for the current incarnation of the Conservative Party again. But then, things do change quickly in politics.
Not to disagree with anything you've said, but the real issue lies one step up, with foreign states using the Palestinian cause to fight a proxy war against Israel (or possibly the US). This is turn makes it almost impossible for Israel to negotiate seriously with them (not that the current government has much interest in doing so in any case).
Corbyn claiming to want to help the Palestinian people while supporting the Iranians is one of those ironies he presumably would understand, being properly British and all.
Both the Palestinians and Iran are being oppressed by the imperialist capitalist running dogs the USA, ie the Jews.
That is the heart of this issue for Jezza.
Sure, but that's not the official position, which is that it's about defending the right of people to campaign on behalf of the Palestinian people. Not to rehash centuries old conspiracy theories about Jewish bankers.
Very good jobs and wages figures just out. Real-term pay (adjusted for inflation) up 1.4% compared with a year ago,. Unemployment at 3.8% is best figure since 1974.
Those are stonkingly good figures when you consider that both the UK economy and the world economies are not doing particularly well. It shows that the structural changes and sound economic management of the last 9 years have really brought benefits. A pity that it's probably all going to be thrown away.
But over 1.5 million are now part-time self employed. How much of that is voluntary? Very different to the mid-1970s.
To be fair to the Conservatives (hell, it's worth a try... ) that change towards part-time work instead of unemployment dates back to at least Gordon Brown's time. IIRC it was a factor in the recovery from 2008.
Very good jobs and wages figures just out. Real-term pay (adjusted for inflation) up 1.4% compared with a year ago,. Unemployment at 3.8% is best figure since 1974.
Those are stonkingly good figures when you consider that both the UK economy and the world economies are not doing particularly well. It shows that the structural changes and sound economic management of the last 9 years have really brought benefits. A pity that it's probably all going to be thrown away.
But over 1.5 million are now part-time self employed. How much of that is voluntary? Very different to the mid-1970s.
Exactly. In my experience, most people want a regular, steady job. An employment contract with the security that entails. Self-employment is only suited to certain niche personality types.
Richard, do you concede that a lot of the involuntarily self-employed are actually miserable? Is misery a good long-term goal?
It's a bit of a generalisation to say the self-employed are 'miserable'! No doubt some full-time employees are miserable as well.
There's also a lot of deliberate misrepresentation of the self-employment figures. Yes, self-employment has increased as a proportion of the workforce in the last twenty years or so (this has been a steady trend, which accelerated in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, but has been partially reversed). It's a complex picture, as you would expect, but it's simply not true that the growth in self-employment is all about low-paid workers not being able to get full-time jobs - some of it is simply responding to the perverse tax incentives. In fact the growth in self-employment has been driven mainly by those who have a degree.
Boris's top-secret masterplan looks suspiciously like what I've been advocating on pb: massively extend the transition period; punt the backstop to appease ERG; remove the hard border for Ireland; lose the Irish Sea border for the DUP; lose TM's red lines to persuade the EU. Either I've just doxed myself as an old Etonian icing sugar addict or fools seldom differ.
But do we know if this would satisfy the ERG? They strike me as being unhinged enough to defeat MV4.
I keep banging on about Cameron's, and then May's, failure to set up a commission to nail down what Brexit should mean, but the corollary of this is there is no agreed ERG position either: just dozens of different unicorns. A massively extended transition period to ensure the backstop is never implemented (and probably an agreed exit mechanism just in case) should satisfy most of them if it means we will leave on halloween.
Two or three ERG members care about vassalage but I doubt the rest know what it means (and I'd need to look it up), and the odd one that does care seems not to have noticed an FTA with the USA (or with Europe) would mean reentering the same state they've been railing against for years.
@Richard_Nabavi Plenty has been said and written about the ERG, but I genuinely question how many politicians on either side have actually put the national interest bearing in mind the probable votes of the rest of parliament first.
Nick Boles is one but I have to exclude Lisa Nandy and Dominic Grieve for instance as they didn't vote to pass the WA.
Very few. The SNP opposed the WA because they oppose everything and want to trigger independence. Labour opposed it for purely cynical party-political reasons. The DUP opposed it for reasons no-one can understand. The LibDems are just about the only party which opposed it for a sensible reason, and they have been fairly consistent.
A tad bitter Richard. The Scottish National Party have been even more consistent than the Liberal Democrats. We opposed David Cameron’s daft referendum legislation. The Lib Dems didn’t.
We are the most consistently pro-EU party.
Of course we want to trigger independence. We are not exactly shy in emphasising that issue. But we hardly “oppose everything”. We have been in government for twelve years. As a government you only survive and thrive if you implement a consistently positive legislative programme. The c40% support shows that a lot of Scots appreciate our work. And a big thank you to the Greens for giving us the essential parliamentary support, particularly at Budget time.
I believe the SNP favoured leaving the EEC at the time of the 1975 Referendum. Jim Sillars still favours Brexit.
Jim Sillars?
It greatly cheers me that that was the best you could manage.
SLab used to be fantastic propagandists. You were masters of the art. We truly feared you guys. Now the level is just laughable. What happened to master-spinner tim? PB was fantastic when he was around. He had a clever angle on absolutely everything.
Captain Boris: the worst navigator in hostile waters since Edward Smith.
Who was the last significant politician to do a drastic handbrake-turn the second they got into office? I know there are examples, but my memory is drawing a blank.
Heath did a pretty rapid and complete U-turn on Selsdon Man proto-Thatcherite policies, but if certainly wasn't the second he got into office.
There have been lots of major U-turns over the years - Wilson on the Common Market, Thatcher on monetarism, Blair (and Clegg!) on tuition fees to name a few, but no PM has previously been elected on a platform which is a complete and total fantasy both politically and economically.
@Richard_Nabavi Plenty has been said and written about the ERG, but I genuinely question how many politicians on either side have actually put the national interest bearing in mind the probable votes of the rest of parliament first.
Nick Boles is one but I have to exclude Lisa Nandy and Dominic Grieve for instance as they didn't vote to pass the WA.
Very few. The SNP opposed the WA because they oppose everything and want to trigger independence. Labour opposed it for purely cynical party-political reasons. The DUP opposed it for reasons no-one can understand. The LibDems are just about the only party which opposed it for a sensible reason, and they have been fairly consistent.
The DUP opposed it for very sensible reasons. I believe a majority of unionists in NI oppose it.
Do you really not understand their concerns? I do.
No I don;t understand it. They seem to be objecting to the original version of the backstop, which treated NI differently to the rest of the UK. Thanks to impressive negotiation by the British civil servants, we managed to get that changed to be a backstop which would give the whole UK full access to the Single Market. I fail to see why the DUP haven't noticed this.
My guess is because politics is a competitive business and you don't admit to something that you don't believe to be true and which is being pedalled by people with ill will. His mistake was allowing himself to be dragged into it though it was difficult to avoid. In a mud wrestle with people like Guido you'll always lose because he's an accomplished mud wrestler and is not scrutinised.
i feel sorry for corbyn. A parasite has attached itself to him. It lives in dark corners and has all the time in the world. Corbyn has to do everything in public. A five year old tweet by someone nobody's ever heard of is OK for a smear.' He knew someone who knew someone who shared a platform with....'
Has any politician not done that? I saw Mrs May sharing a platform with Trump who shared one with Duterte and even Corbyn couldn't compete with that. His problem is he sypathises with the Palestinians as do many on the left and to rid himself of the parasite he believes he has to renounce them. This is his dilemma. The rest is window dressing.
Oh, that's just outright misdirection. He's actually shared platforms with the people he stands accused of sharing platforms with; it's not one step removed. He's also been known to introduce them at conferences and describe them as his friends. Theresa May has never done that. Nor even has Boris Johnson.
Very good jobs and wages figures just out. Real-term pay (adjusted for inflation) up 1.4% compared with a year ago,. Unemployment at 3.8% is best figure since 1974.
Those are stonkingly good figures when you consider that both the UK economy and the world economies are not doing particularly well. It shows that the structural changes and sound economic management of the last 9 years have really brought benefits. A pity that it's probably all going to be thrown away.
But over 1.5 million are now part-time self employed. How much of that is voluntary? Very different to the mid-1970s.
Exactly. In my experience, most people want a regular, steady job. An employment contract with the security that entails. Self-employment is only suited to certain niche personality types.
Richard, do you concede that a lot of the involuntarily self-employed are actually miserable? Is misery a good long-term goal?
It's a bit of a generalisation to say the self-employed are 'miserable'! No doubt some full-time employees are miserable as well.
There's also a lot of deliberate misrepresentation of the self-employment figures. Yes, self-employment has increased as a proportion of the workforce in the last twenty years or so (this has been a steady trend, which accelerated in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, but has been partially reversed). It's a complex picture, as you would expect, but it's simply not true that the growth in self-employment is all about low-paid workers not being able to get full-time jobs - some of it is simply responding to the perverse tax incentives. In fact the growth in self-employment has been driven mainly by those who have a degree.
Indeed - and the idea of one safe job for life has long since sailed away into the distance. People today have t expect several jobs over their lifetimes - flexibility and a level of uncertainty is the name of the game.
Who was the last significant politician to do a drastic handbrake-turn the second they got into office? I know there are examples, but my memory is drawing a blank.
Lenin (NEP), Mitterand (110 Propositions pour la France), Chiflee (Nationalising banks).
Not that Boris is any way on par with those three.
Boris's top-secret masterplan looks suspiciously like what I've been advocating on pb: massively extend the transition period; punt the backstop to appease ERG; remove the hard border for Ireland; lose the Irish Sea border for the DUP; lose TM's red lines to persuade the EU. Either I've just doxed myself as an old Etonian icing sugar addict or fools seldom differ.
I can't hear the word "master plan" without assuming the next line is Bane saying "Crashing this plane...with no survivors".
Which, given the circs, may actually be the case, at least metaphorically...
Boris's top-secret masterplan looks suspiciously like what I've been advocating on pb: massively extend the transition period; punt the backstop to appease ERG; remove the hard border for Ireland; lose the Irish Sea border for the DUP; lose TM's red lines to persuade the EU. Either I've just doxed myself as an old Etonian icing sugar addict or fools seldom differ.
But do we know if this would satisfy the ERG? They strike me as being unhinged enough to defeat MV4.
I keep banging on about Cameron's, and then May's, failure to set up a commission to nail down what Brexit should mean, but the corollary of this is there is no agreed ERG position either: just dozens of different unicorns. A massively extended transition period to ensure the backstop is never implemented (and probably an agreed exit mechanism just in case) should satisfy most of them if it means we will leave on halloween.
Two or three ERG members care about vassalage but I doubt the rest know what it means (and I'd need to look it up), and the odd one that does care seems not to have noticed an FTA with the USA (or with Europe) would mean reentering the same state they've been railing against for years.
Yes, any modern comprehensive trade agreement will involve anti-state aid provisions, opening of public works to competition and third party binding arbitration.
Boris's top-secret masterplan looks suspiciously like what I've been advocating on pb: massively extend the transition period; punt the backstop to appease ERG; remove the hard border for Ireland; lose the Irish Sea border for the DUP; lose TM's red lines to persuade the EU. Either I've just doxed myself as an old Etonian icing sugar addict or fools seldom differ.
But do we know if this would satisfy the ERG? They strike me as being unhinged enough to defeat MV4.
I keep banging on about Cameron's, and then May's, failure to set up a commission to nail down what Brexit should mean, but the corollary of this is there is no agreed ERG position either: just dozens of different unicorns. A massively extended transition period to ensure the backstop is never implemented (and probably an agreed exit mechanism just in case) should satisfy most of them if it means we will leave on halloween.
Two or three ERG members care about vassalage but I doubt the rest know what it means (and I'd need to look it up), and the odd one that does care seems not to have noticed an FTA with the USA (or with Europe) would mean reentering the same state they've been railing against for years.
I don't think the ERG are open to the kind of reasoned argument you put forward. Leaving by 31 October has become an article of faith, anyone who doubts their certainty is an apostate. Do or die.
If politicians treated the vote as a cry for help from these areas, then something might happen.
But the most likely vehicle for that is a social democratic/moderate Labour government. Under Corbyn they are away with the fairies, chasing bonkers ideas about Israel and wasting money on middle class undergrads.
Funny how two people can read the same thing and come to a totally different conclusion. I read that and thought, Labour's last manifesto sounds on the money.
*Big investment in infrastructure *National Education Service for skills *Workers' rights/against zero-hours contracts *Refocus on manufacturing and away from London *More money on police and public services
One of the first things I expect Boris to do as PM is shamelessly nick popular bits off Labour.
I will also not be surprised if he does something Really Big on immigration. Clamp down point forward, but an amnesty for anyone here illegally who can prove they were UK resident before 2016. Blue British passports and all.
Boris is probably going to wrong foot all those who were against him - and for him.
Who was the last significant politician to do a drastic handbrake-turn the second they got into office? I know there are examples, but my memory is drawing a blank.
Lenin (NEP), Mitterand (110 Propositions pour la France), Chiflee (Nationalising banks).
Not that Boris is any way on par with those three.
Mitterand's was not the first second he was in office though, to be pedantic.
My guess is because politics is a competitive business and you don't admit to something that you don't believe to be true and which is being pedalled by people with ill will. His mistake was allowing himself to be dragged into it though it was difficult to avoid. In a mud wrestle with people like Guido you'll always lose because he's an accomplished mud wrestler and is not scrutinised.
i feel sorry for corbyn. A parasite has attached itself to him. It lives in dark corners and has all the time in the world. Corbyn has to do everything in public. A five year old tweet by someone nobody's ever heard of is OK for a smear.' He knew someone who knew someone who shared a platform with....'
Has any politician not done that? I saw Mrs May sharing a platform with Trump who shared one with Duterte and even Corbyn couldn't compete with that. His problem is he sypathises with the Palestinians as do many on the left and to rid himself of the parasite he believes he has to renounce them. This is his dilemma. The rest is window dressing.
Oh, that's just outright misdirection. He's actually shared platforms with the people he stands accused of sharing platforms with; it's not one step removed. He's also been known to introduce them at conferences and describe them as his friends. Theresa May has never done that. Nor even has Boris Johnson.
From the other direction, Corbyn has not (sfaict) used racially offensive terms for Jews or anyone else, whereas Boris has.
Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom. Unless or until they choose to leave the UK, that is too much.
If in order to get a trade deal with the USA we were to let the USA effectively annex Scotland, granting the US Congress the right to change Scottish laws without any say of the Scottish Parliament or Scottish voters would that be acceptable? Should we shrug our shoulders and say "Its only Scotland"?
For an English nationalist you seem to blow curiously hot and cold on the subject of the UK. In any case when it comes to winning their preshuss, polling suggests that the attitude of hard core Brexiteers' (of which I'd assumed you're one) seems to be very much "It's only Scotland", and "It's only NI" for that matter.
@Richard_Nabavi Plenty has been said and written about the ERG, but I genuinely question how many politicians on either side have actually put the national interest bearing in mind the probable votes of the rest of parliament first.
Nick Boles is one but I have to exclude Lisa Nandy and Dominic Grieve for instance as they didn't vote to pass the WA.
Very few. The SNP opposed the WA because they oppose everything and want to trigger independence. Labour opposed it for purely cynical party-political reasons. The DUP opposed it for reasons no-one can understand. The LibDems are just about the only party which opposed it for a sensible reason, and they have been fairly consistent.
A tad bitter Richard. The Scottish National Party have been even more consistent than the Liberal Democrats. We opposed David Cameron’s daft referendum legislation. The Lib Dems didn’t.
We are the most consistently pro-EU party.
Of course we want to trigger independence. We are not exactly shy in emphasising that issue. But we hardly “oppose everything”. We have been in government for twelve years. As a government you only survive and thrive if you implement a consistently positive legislative programme. The c40% support shows that a lot of Scots appreciate our work. And a big thank you to the Greens for giving us the essential parliamentary support, particularly at Budget time.
I believe the SNP favoured leaving the EEC at the time of the 1975 Referendum. Jim Sillars still favours Brexit.
Jim Sillars?
It greatly cheers me that that was the best you could manage.
SLab used to be fantastic propagandists. You were masters of the art. We truly feared you guys. Now the level is just laughable. What happened to master-spinner tim? PB was fantastic when he was around. He had a clever angle on absolutely everything.
I have nothing but contempt for spin from whatever source. My point was that the SNP adopted a very different line at the time of the 1975 Referendum to the opinions it gives us today.Nothing very consistent about its policy over that period. The same applies to Labour and the Tories.
Boris's top-secret masterplan looks suspiciously like what I've been advocating on pb: massively extend the transition period; punt the backstop to appease ERG; remove the hard border for Ireland; lose the Irish Sea border for the DUP; lose TM's red lines to persuade the EU. Either I've just doxed myself as an old Etonian icing sugar addict or fools seldom differ.
But do we know if this would satisfy the ERG? They strike me as being unhinged enough to defeat MV4.
I keep banging on about Cameron's, and then May's, failure to set up a commission to nail down what Brexit should mean, but the corollary of this is there is no agreed ERG position either: just dozens of different unicorns. A massively extended transition period to ensure the backstop is never implemented (and probably an agreed exit mechanism just in case) should satisfy most of them if it means we will leave on halloween.
Two or three ERG members care about vassalage but I doubt the rest know what it means (and I'd need to look it up), and the odd one that does care seems not to have noticed an FTA with the USA (or with Europe) would mean reentering the same state they've been railing against for years.
Yes, any modern comprehensive trade agreement will involve anti-state aid provisions, opening of public works to competition and third party binding arbitration.
I think you need to explain that to @Philip_Thompson . He still thinks free trade agreements can be achieved without rule taking...
Boris's top-secret masterplan looks suspiciously like what I've been advocating on pb: massively extend the transition period; punt the backstop to appease ERG; remove the hard border for Ireland; lose the Irish Sea border for the DUP; lose TM's red lines to persuade the EU. Either I've just doxed myself as an old Etonian icing sugar addict or fools seldom differ.
But do we know if this would satisfy the ERG? They strike me as being unhinged enough to defeat MV4.
I keep banging on about Cameron's, and then May's, failure to set up a commission to nail down what Brexit should mean, but the corollary of this is there is no agreed ERG position either: just dozens of different unicorns. A massively extended transition period to ensure the backstop is never implemented (and probably an agreed exit mechanism just in case) should satisfy most of them if it means we will leave on halloween.
Two or three ERG members care about vassalage but I doubt the rest know what it means (and I'd need to look it up), and the odd one that does care seems not to have noticed an FTA with the USA (or with Europe) would mean reentering the same state they've been railing against for years.
If we can only end an indefinite transition by agreeing a FTA with the EU, or by entering the backstop, I don't see why the ERG would go for it. If we can leave unilaterally then I don't see why the EU would go for it.
Edit: Although, if they now realise they made a mistake opposing the Withdrawal Agreement then getting rid of the backstop by name, if not by practical effect, would give them a way to climb down gracefully.
Boris's top-secret masterplan looks suspiciously like what I've been advocating on pb: massively extend the transition period; punt the backstop to appease ERG; remove the hard border for Ireland; lose the Irish Sea border for the DUP; lose TM's red lines to persuade the EU. Either I've just doxed myself as an old Etonian icing sugar addict or fools seldom differ.
But do we know if this would satisfy the ERG? They strike me as being unhinged enough to defeat MV4.
I keep banging on about Cameron's, and then May's, failure to set up a commission to nail down what Brexit should mean, but the corollary of this is there is no agreed ERG position either: just dozens of different unicorns. A massively extended transition period to ensure the backstop is never implemented (and probably an agreed exit mechanism just in case) should satisfy most of them if it means we will leave on halloween.
Two or three ERG members care about vassalage but I doubt the rest know what it means (and I'd need to look it up), and the odd one that does care seems not to have noticed an FTA with the USA (or with Europe) would mean reentering the same state they've been railing against for years.
If we can only end an indefinite transition by agreeing a FTA with the EU, or by entering the backstop, I don't see why the ERG would go for it. If we can leave unilaterally then I don't see why the EU would go for it.
BINO on steroids. I suspect enough Lab MPs would go for that, so once again it will depend on the diehard ERG deciding whether they want to die.
Boris's top-secret masterplan looks suspiciously like what I've been advocating on pb: massively extend the transition period; punt the backstop to appease ERG; remove the hard border for Ireland; lose the Irish Sea border for the DUP; lose TM's red lines to persuade the EU. Either I've just doxed myself as an old Etonian icing sugar addict or fools seldom differ.
But do we know if this would satisfy the ERG? They strike me as being unhinged enough to defeat MV4.
I keep banging on about Cameron's, and then May's, failure to set up a commission to nail down what Brexit should mean, but the corollary of this is there is no agreed ERG position either: just dozens of different unicorns. A massively extended transition period to ensure the backstop is never implemented (and probably an agreed exit mechanism just in case) should satisfy most of them if it means we will leave on halloween.
Two or three ERG members care about vassalage but I doubt the rest know what it means (and I'd need to look it up), and the odd one that does care seems not to have noticed an FTA with the USA (or with Europe) would mean reentering the same state they've been railing against for years.
I don't think the ERG are open to the kind of reasoned argument you put forward. Leaving by 31 October has become an article of faith, anyone who doubts their certainty is an apostate. Do or die.
That's the beauty of it. We leave on 31/10 but with a (say) 10-year transition period, which will allow most serious objections to be dealt with and crucially will satisfy the vast majority of the ERG and leave-voters who just want out. Bill Cash might have spent the last 30 years studying European constitutional law but most haven't.
I get that it's Bloomberg's job to write up sub-1% daily changes in the value of a currency.. but that headline and graph is not a great example of the art of sensible context setting
I think you're really underestimating how large, well-funded and sophisticated the campaign machinery in the US is. There are attacks on Harris that Trump can't make- like how tainted she is by her history as a prosecutor- which will still be put out there by concern trolls writing op-eds in the NYT and WaPo and thus turned into talking points. Likewise pretty much anything from her past can be dug up, turned into a three-day news story by the GOP-supporting media and subsequently turned into a stupid nickname by Trump. In between that there's the usual background noise of dog-whistles, accusations of elitism and far-lefistm and hysterical predictions about her policies which the right-wing press and Trump himself will engage in as their day-to-day bread and butter.
All of these tactics will be used against any candidate, though the success of the concern trolling will be somewhat based on whether they have a good point, which in Harris' case they do. In Biden's case it will be even worse since he has so many features which are off-putting to a lot of Democrats. The key to success isn't finding a candidate who Republicans can't attack, it's finding somebody who has their own positive narrative and vision with which to win over voters. Sanders and- to a lesser extent- Warren have that. Biden has "Hey, remember Obama?". Harris has...?
My guess is because politics is a competitive business and you don't admit to something that you don't believe to be true and which is being pedalled by people with ill will. His mistake was allowing himself to be dragged into it though it was difficult to avoid. In a mud wrestle with people like Guido you'll always lose because he's an accomplished mud wrestler and is not scrutinised.
i feel sorry for corbyn. A parasite has attached itself to him. It lives in dark corners and has all the time in the world. Corbyn has to do everything in public. A five year old tweet by someone nobody's ever heard of is OK for a smear.' He knew someone who knew someone who shared a platform with....'
Has any politician not done that? I saw Mrs May sharing a platform with Trump who shared one with Duterte and even Corbyn couldn't compete with that. His problem is he sypathises with the Palestinians as do many on the left and to rid himself of the parasite he believes he has to renounce them. This is his dilemma. The rest is window dressing.
Oh, that's just outright misdirection. He's actually shared platforms with the people he stands accused of sharing platforms with; it's not one step removed. He's also been known to introduce them at conferences and describe them as his friends. Theresa May has never done that. Nor even has Boris Johnson.
From the other direction, Corbyn has not (sfaict) used racially offensive terms for Jews or anyone else, whereas Boris has.
Yes, that's sort of my point. It's much easier on paper to make a case that Johnson is actively racist, and yet there is no deluge of evidence from his past showing that he is, based on his actions.
I get that it's Bloomberg's job to write up sub-1% daily changes in the value of a currency.. but that headline and graph is not a great example of the art of sensible context setting
It'd be insane to display daily FX changes on a graph that went from 0. You'd never see anything.
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
All LDs will vote no confidence , some Labour Leavers like Skinner and Campbell won’t support a Tory government . The Tories against no deal will do everything possible to use legislation to stop that and avoid at all costs a VONC.
The issue with a VONC is no Tory would do that if they thought too many Labour MPs will nullify their vote . You’re not going to go for the nuclear option unless you’re confident of winning that vote .
My guess is because politics is a competitive business and you don't admit to something that you don't believe to be true and which is being pedalled by people with ill will. His mistake was allowing himself to be dragged into it though it was difficult to avoid. In a mud wrestle with people like Guido you'll always lose because he's an accomplished mud wrestler and is not scrutinised.
i feel sorry for corbyn. A parasite has attached itself to him. It lives in dark corners and has all the time in the world. Corbyn has to do everything in public. A five year old tweet by someone nobody's ever heard of is OK for a smear.' He knew someone who knew someone who shared a platform with....'
Has any politician not done that? I saw Mrs May sharing a platform with Trump who shared one with Duterte and even Corbyn couldn't compete with that. His problem is he sypathises with the Palestinians as do many on the left and to rid himself of the parasite he believes he has to renounce them. This is his dilemma. The rest is window dressing.
Oh, that's just outright misdirection. He's actually shared platforms with the people he stands accused of sharing platforms with; it's not one step removed. He's also been known to introduce them at conferences and describe them as his friends. Theresa May has never done that. Nor even has Boris Johnson.
You missed the documentary then. There was some grainy footage of a man speaking Arabic which was translated . There was then some other more recent footage of Corbyn on a platform with four or five others and we we informed one of them was the same person we'd seen earlier. It even had to put a circle round his head. If the BBC with their library couldn't find some footage of Corbyn sharing a stage with someone saying something significant then I could only presume it didn't exist.
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
My guess is because politics is a competitive business and you don't admit to something that you don't believe to be true and which is being pedalled by people with ill will. His mistake was allowing himself to be dragged into it though it was difficult to avoid. In a mud wrestle with people like Guido you'll always lose because he's an accomplished mud wrestler and is not scrutinised.
i feel sorry for corbyn. A parasite has attached itself to him. It lives in dark corners and has all the time in the world. Corbyn has to do everything in public. A five year old tweet by someone nobody's ever heard of is OK for a smear.' He knew someone who knew someone who shared a platform with....'
Has any politician not done that? I saw Mrs May sharing a platform with Trump who shared one with Duterte and even Corbyn couldn't compete with that. His problem is he sypathises with the Palestinians as do many on the left and to rid himself of the parasite he believes he has to renounce them. This is his dilemma. The rest is window dressing.
Oh, that's just outright misdirection. He's actually shared platforms with the people he stands accused of sharing platforms with; it's not one step removed. He's also been known to introduce them at conferences and describe them as his friends. Theresa May has never done that. Nor even has Boris Johnson.
From the other direction, Corbyn has not (sfaict) used racially offensive terms for Jews or anyone else, whereas Boris has.
Yes, that's sort of my point. It's much easier on paper to make a case that Johnson is actively racist, and yet there is no deluge of evidence from his past showing that he is, based on his actions.
In the run-up to an election, a paper case will be enough. Everyone now "knows" Jezza hates Jews, even if he doesn't. The microtargeted Facebook posts and the full-page adverts in the ethnic press with Boris quotes in 72-point type write themselves. So my advice to punters is to back BAME and lady ministers for top Cabinet jobs: it is a cynical analysis but Boris needs to cover his flanks.
I have been doing a lot of thinking about Labour's Anti-Semitism problem after yesterday's "Gentiles Labour Forum" shenanigans so close to home. Its a multi-faceted problem:
1. Palestine is a totemic issue for a lot of left activists, and that places it over and above every other problem area in the country
2. They see this as an entirely Israeli problem. Whilst Egypt imprisons Gaza jointly with Israel, only the latter gets called to task.
3. The blessed Jeremy has been a long-standing advocate for Palestine. As you need to work towards the leader to be anyone these days, that has seen a lot of people enthusiastically joining in the cause without understanding it. That what you read on Facebook is the authoritative fountain of all knowledge for many people just adds to the problem.
4. Which is how we find ourselves stuck where a small number of sweep Israel from the map anti-semites are able to gaslight and manipulate Jezbollah enthusiasts and shape them to parrot their hate without thinking. The reaction from so many when you call out their anti-semitism is "that isn't anti-semitism" - they dimply don't know what they are saying.
5. AS has become the proxy war between those supporting and opposed to the Corbyn. Anyone saying we have a problem is LYING as Jeremy has always been a man of peace* - they must be lying for a reason whuch makes tthey right wing Blairites. The latest AS smear is that those lying are Israeli shills. Which is Demonstrable Fact because look at this infographic on Facebook proving it.
AS is to the Labour Party as Racism is to Brexit. Whilst its absolutely true that not all supporters of the blessed Corbyn are Anti-Semites, it absolutely IS true that all anti-semites are supporters of his.
Remove Corbyn, kill the AS problem. Both sides know this, hence the Labour Party making such a tit of itself over the Panorama documentary.
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
This is not a one way street
If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.
So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.
With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
This is not a one way street
But propping up the Tories will see their careers ending anyway . The same for Tories, voting against their own government is career ending .
Some of those Labour Leavers though will not support the Tories. Can you imagine people like Skinner or Campbell supporting the Tories .
My guess is because politics is a competitive business and you don't admit to something that you don't believe to be true and which is being pedalled by people with ill will. His mistake was allowing himself to be dragged into it though it was difficult to avoid. In a mud wrestle with people like Guido you'll always lose because he's an accomplished mud wrestler and is not scrutinised.
i feel sorry for corbyn. A parasite has attached itself to him. It lives in dark corners and has all the time in the world. Corbyn has to do everything in public. A five year old tweet by someone nobody's ever heard of is OK for a smear.' He knew someone who knew someone who shared a platform with....'
Has any politician not done that? I saw Mrs May sharing a platform with Trump who shared one with Duterte and even Corbyn couldn't compete with that. His problem is he sypathises with the Palestinians as do many on the left and to rid himself of the parasite he believes he has to renounce them. This is his dilemma. The rest is window dressing.
Oh, that's just outright misdirection. He's actually shared platforms with the people he stands accused of sharing platforms with; it's not one step removed. He's also been known to introduce them at conferences and describe them as his friends. Theresa May has never done that. Nor even has Boris Johnson.
You missed the documentary then. There was some grainy footage of a man speaking Arabic which was translated . There was then some other more recent footage of Corbyn on a platform with four or five others and we we informed one of them was the same person we'd seen earlier. It even had to put a circle round his head. If the BBC with their library couldn't find some footage of Corbyn sharing a stage with someone saying something significant then I could only presume it didn't exist.
I have no idea what documentary you're referencing, but you clearly missed Corbyn admitting that he has "on occasion appeared on platforms with people whose views I completely reject".
On the current swing from the latest Comres poll with May as leader the LDs would indeed take Brecon and Radnor with 38% (ie the same number as signed the recall petition) to just 32% for the Tories.
However, based on the Comres hypothetical figures with Boris as PM and Tory leader the LDs and Tories would be tied on 39% each giving Boris the chance of a shock Tory hold and a huge morale boost to the Tories
Who was the last significant politician to do a drastic handbrake-turn the second they got into office? I know there are examples, but my memory is drawing a blank.
Lenin (NEP), Mitterand (110 Propositions pour la France), Chiflee (Nationalising banks).
Not that Boris is any way on par with those three.
Mitterand's was not the first second he was in office though, to be pedantic.
@Richard_Nabavi Plenty has been said and written about the ERG, but I genuinely question how many politicians on either side have actually put the national interest bearing in mind the probable votes of the rest of parliament first.
Nick Boles is one but I have to exclude Lisa Nandy and Dominic Grieve for instance as they didn't vote to pass the WA.
Very few. The SNP opposed the WA because they oppose everything and want to trigger independence. Labour opposed it for purely cynical party-political reasons. The DUP opposed it for reasons no-one can understand. The LibDems are just about the only party which opposed it for a sensible reason, and they have been fairly consistent.
The DUP opposed it for very sensible reasons. I believe a majority of unionists in NI oppose it.
Do you really not understand their concerns? I do.
No I don;t understand it. They seem to be objecting to the original version of the backstop, which treated NI differently to the rest of the UK. Thanks to impressive negotiation by the British civil servants, we managed to get that changed to be a backstop which would give the whole UK full access to the Single Market. I fail to see why the DUP haven't noticed this.
Because NI are still treated differently. Sure today they are the same but the UK retains the right for GB to exit the customs arrangements etc but not NI.
What is to stop a future Tory majority government from taking GB out while leaving NI behind shafting the DUP and Unionists? Which is precisely what our own HYUFD keeps insisting is the plan.
I have been doing a lot of thinking about Labour's Anti-Semitism problem after yesterday's "Gentiles Labour Forum" shenanigans so close to home. Its a multi-faceted problem:
1. Palestine is a totemic issue for a lot of left activists, and that places it over and above every other problem area in the country
2. They see this as an entirely Israeli problem. Whilst Egypt imprisons Gaza jointly with Israel, only the latter gets called to task.
3. The blessed Jeremy has been a long-standing advocate for Palestine. As you need to work towards the leader to be anyone these days, that has seen a lot of people enthusiastically joining in the cause without understanding it. That what you read on Facebook is the authoritative fountain of all knowledge for many people just adds to the problem.
4. Which is how we find ourselves stuck where a small number of sweep Israel from the map anti-semites are able to gaslight and manipulate Jezbollah enthusiasts and shape them to parrot their hate without thinking. The reaction from so many when you call out their anti-semitism is "that isn't anti-semitism" - they dimply don't know what they are saying.
5. AS has become the proxy war between those supporting and opposed to the Corbyn. Anyone saying we have a problem is LYING as Jeremy has always been a man of peace* - they must be lying for a reason whuch makes tthey right wing Blairites. The latest AS smear is that those lying are Israeli shills. Which is Demonstrable Fact because look at this infographic on Facebook proving it.
AS is to the Labour Party as Racism is to Brexit. Whilst its absolutely true that not all supporters of the blessed Corbyn are Anti-Semites, it absolutely IS true that all anti-semites are supporters of his.
Remove Corbyn, kill the AS problem. Both sides know this, hence the Labour Party making such a tit of itself over the Panorama documentary.
Good analysis but you omit the issue that Momentum and the True Believers now control the party levers of power. If Corbyn goes AS will remain I’m afraid
With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.
I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.
Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
This is not a one way street
If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.
So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
Comments
The latter is also a good reason not to require this in the first place: do we really want to reduce campaign groups' incentive to follow the laws properly? The way to go is to make the directors/trustees/whatever personally responsible for wrongdoing, including the possibility of jail time.
Who was the last significant politician to do a drastic handbrake-turn the second they got into office? I know there are examples, but my memory is drawing a blank.
That is the heart of this issue for Jezza.
Richard, do you concede that a lot of the involuntarily self-employed are actually miserable? Is misery a good long-term goal?
*Big investment in infrastructure
*National Education Service for skills
*Workers' rights/against zero-hours contracts
*Refocus on manufacturing and away from London
*More money on police and public services
i feel sorry for corbyn. A parasite has attached itself to him. It lives in dark corners and has all the time in the world. Corbyn has to do everything in public. A five year old tweet by someone nobody's ever heard of is OK for a smear.' He knew someone who knew someone who shared a platform with....'
Has any politician not done that? I saw Mrs May sharing a platform with Trump who shared one with Duterte and even Corbyn couldn't compete with that. His problem is he sypathises with the Palestinians as do many on the left and to rid himself of the parasite he believes he has to renounce them. This is his dilemma. The rest is window dressing.
Do you really not understand their concerns? I do.
Corbyn's problem is that he actually did those things.
He did lay a wreath for terrorists. Then denied it.
Are you sure it wasn't symbiotic relationship?
Our local Labour MP has consistently voted in a remain-y fashion against the whip (Cambridge), and I am now torn as to whether to vote for him, or vote LD in an attempt to maximise their influence in a hung parliament.
I cannot see the circumstance in which I would vote for the current incarnation of the Conservative Party again. But then, things do change quickly in politics.
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/jeremy-hunt-hitler-london-olympics-2012-opening-ceremony-world-war-two-a7141791.html
“London 2012 organisers had to stop Jeremy Hunt putting Hitler in the opening ceremony, documentary reveals“
There's also a lot of deliberate misrepresentation of the self-employment figures. Yes, self-employment has increased as a proportion of the workforce in the last twenty years or so (this has been a steady trend, which accelerated in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, but has been partially reversed). It's a complex picture, as you would expect, but it's simply not true that the growth in self-employment is all about low-paid workers not being able to get full-time jobs - some of it is simply responding to the perverse tax incentives. In fact the growth in self-employment has been driven mainly by those who have a degree.
Two or three ERG members care about vassalage but I doubt the rest know what it means (and I'd need to look it up), and the odd one that does care seems not to have noticed an FTA with the USA (or with Europe) would mean reentering the same state they've been railing against for years.
It greatly cheers me that that was the best you could manage.
SLab used to be fantastic propagandists. You were masters of the art. We truly feared you guys. Now the level is just laughable. What happened to master-spinner tim? PB was fantastic when he was around. He had a clever angle on absolutely everything.
Not that Boris is any way on par with those three.
Which, given the circs, may actually be the case, at least metaphorically...
I will also not be surprised if he does something Really Big on immigration. Clamp down point forward, but an amnesty for anyone here illegally who can prove they were UK resident before 2016. Blue British passports and all.
Boris is probably going to wrong foot all those who were against him - and for him.
Edit: Although, if they now realise they made a mistake opposing the Withdrawal Agreement then getting rid of the backstop by name, if not by practical effect, would give them a way to climb down gracefully.
I get that it's Bloomberg's job to write up sub-1% daily changes in the value of a currency.. but that headline and graph is not a great example of the art of sensible context setting
All of these tactics will be used against any candidate, though the success of the concern trolling will be somewhat based on whether they have a good point, which in Harris' case they do. In Biden's case it will be even worse since he has so many features which are off-putting to a lot of Democrats. The key to success isn't finding a candidate who Republicans can't attack, it's finding somebody who has their own positive narrative and vision with which to win over voters. Sanders and- to a lesser extent- Warren have that. Biden has "Hey, remember Obama?". Harris has...?
There are 10 kinds of people: those who understand that....
I suspect there may be Chinese whispers here....
Not this year. Hampton Court was our last show of the season
I assume you are visiting Tatton?
The issue with a VONC is no Tory would do that if they thought too many Labour MPs will nullify their vote . You’re not going to go for the nuclear option unless you’re confident of winning that vote .
This is not a one way street
1. Palestine is a totemic issue for a lot of left activists, and that places it over and above every other problem area in the country
2. They see this as an entirely Israeli problem. Whilst Egypt imprisons Gaza jointly with Israel, only the latter gets called to task.
3. The blessed Jeremy has been a long-standing advocate for Palestine. As you need to work towards the leader to be anyone these days, that has seen a lot of people enthusiastically joining in the cause without understanding it. That what you read on Facebook is the authoritative fountain of all knowledge for many people just adds to the problem.
4. Which is how we find ourselves stuck where a small number of sweep Israel from the map anti-semites are able to gaslight and manipulate Jezbollah enthusiasts and shape them to parrot their hate without thinking. The reaction from so many when you call out their anti-semitism is "that isn't anti-semitism" - they dimply don't know what they are saying.
5. AS has become the proxy war between those supporting and opposed to the Corbyn. Anyone saying we have a problem is LYING as Jeremy has always been a man of peace* - they must be lying for a reason whuch makes tthey right wing Blairites. The latest AS smear is that those lying are Israeli shills. Which is Demonstrable Fact because look at this infographic on Facebook proving it.
AS is to the Labour Party as Racism is to Brexit. Whilst its absolutely true that not all supporters of the blessed Corbyn are Anti-Semites, it absolutely IS true that all anti-semites are supporters of his.
Remove Corbyn, kill the AS problem. Both sides know this, hence the Labour Party making such a tit of itself over the Panorama documentary.
But who would?
So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.
Some of those Labour Leavers though will not support the Tories. Can you imagine people like Skinner or Campbell supporting the Tories .
https://news.sky.com/story/jeremy-corbyn-sorry-for-sharing-conference-platform-with-anti-zionist-speaker-11455926
However, based on the Comres hypothetical figures with Boris as PM and Tory leader the LDs and Tories would be tied on 39% each giving Boris the chance of a shock Tory hold and a huge morale boost to the Tories
What is to stop a future Tory majority government from taking GB out while leaving NI behind shafting the DUP and Unionists? Which is precisely what our own HYUFD keeps insisting is the plan.
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on