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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just 8 days after he enters Number 10 PM Johnson will face his first CON by-election defence
In the week after Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister he will face his first by-election defence in the Welsh constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire. Looking through the records this appears to be unprecedented. There hasn’t in modern times been a by-election scheduled to take place so soon after a new PM takes office and, inevitably it is going to be seen as something of a verdict on him.
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Everyone is assuming he will be the new PM already. Of course it gets interesting if he fails to command a majority in the Commons.
Those are stonkingly good figures when you consider that both the UK economy and the world economies are not doing particularly well. It shows that the structural changes and sound economic management of the last 9 years have really brought benefits. A pity that it's probably all going to be thrown away.
I think a Boris bounce should be large enough to see them second, but if the Lib Dems can't win this seat in the circumstances (Brexit, expenses, other parties standing aside, by-election) then reports of their resurrection will have been greatly exaggerated.
Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom. Unless or until they choose to leave the UK, that is too much.
If in order to get a trade deal with the USA we were to let the USA effectively annex Scotland, granting the US Congress the right to change Scottish laws without any say of the Scottish Parliament or Scottish voters would that be acceptable? Should we shrug our shoulders and say "Its only Scotland"?
OT. Because it is much more complicated than most people believe. Even when you speak to Jewish people who study the subject the relationship between Jews and Israel is a complex one. A lot of Jews are struggling and like politics it's not just left right pro or anti Israel anymore. It raises questions about who is a Jew for which there are several opinions. For Gentiles it's even more difficult. You can see well meaning people trying desperately to appear not anti semitic but without any idea of what or where the boundary is or what the term means.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1151065348323647488
Britain First fined £40,000 over multiple law breaches
The far-right group has committed a "serious offence and shows disregard for the law", the Electoral Commission says.
https://news.sky.com/story/britain-first-fined-40-000-for-multiple-law-breaches-11764112
Unfortunately the Tories have dug a massive trap for themselves and jumped into it, by not squashing the nonsense of the ERG early enough and thereby validating Farage. There's no way out of this trap. The more they struggle, the more they will get tangled up.
https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1151066620133027840?s=21
https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1151066856884715520?s=21
Quite simply there’s not the time to pass all the laws moving us over to WTO terms and collect tariffs. We need a trade bill which the commons library and Andrea Leadsom have both said we don’t have the time to pass, even if the summer break was cancelled and Parliament also sat at weekends
The economy is going to take a hit and the government won’t be able to collect a lot of revenues it should.
No Deal will particularly hit manufacturing, farming, fishing, and financial services in this instance.
Presentation cited 22 examples of when Boris Johnson said no deal wouldn’t happen, including up to last year.
A general election during no deal will see the Tories gubbed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/16/grieve-senior-tories-may-have-to-vote-down-johnson-government
Northern Ireland is part of the UK and if a majority of people decide to leave the UK they can unify with Ireland so long as both North and South agree to that. They haven't yet, they are part of us and they have a right to determine their own laws not be slaves subjugated to follow someone else's laws without a say so.
If we were suffering from inflation I'd agree sinking lower would be exacerbating our problems. Inflation is not our problem at the minute though.
By the way, it's really not that hard. Criticising the Israeli government is totally fine (it puts you on the same platform as a solid half of all Israelis for a start). Calling for the violent destruction of Israel (and defending/associating with those who do), clearly isn't. Ditto bringing up 1930s era conspiracy theories about Jews controlling the banks/media/everything else.
Sure, there's a grey area in the middle, and it's difficult to find the precise line without getting into serious trouble, but a) there's been enough out of Labour members in recent years that's clearly over the line for this not to matter, and b) you have to ask yourself why Corbyn and his associates are so desperate to continue inhabiting the grey area, given how much trouble it's causing them.
Safe to say that some soothesayers don't know what they're talking about.
At least there's now some doubt.....
Politicians can never seem to do the whole 'we'll pass this law to alleviate x even if we disagree with it because y might do z which precipitates it'.
NI haven't voted for the backstop. In fact the MPs they've elected after the referendum vehemently oppose it.
More interestingly in the 8 days after BJs annoitment will be his cabinet appointees and the fall out from those he discards.
All this nonsense abt tories not voting against its own govt in a VONC is incorrect. I hear that possibly 15 will.
Brexit once again will prove bigger than anyone is prepared to acknowledge.
At the time of the 2017 election the DUP manifesto was heavy on respecting the particular circumstances of Northern Ireland and avoiding a hard border. They are also being hypocritical.
Jump, deal with any issues and then sort it out. If we miss out on some tariffs at first who cares? Put them in afterwards. There are more important things to worry about than being tariff free for a bit longer.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1151072755602927616
If you look at the IHRA definition, the main part says (paraphrasing wildly!) don't be nasty to Jews. It is the examples that cause the problems for Labour, because the examples say don't be nasty to Jews or Israel.
And Jezza and his mates have spent the last 30 years condemning Israel (and it is all in the historical record to be brought up whenever convenient). So the leadership has that anti-Israel problem which gives cover to out-and-out anti-Jewish sentiment, not least from Militant types now readmitted in Liverpool.
Nick Boles is one but I have to exclude Lisa Nandy and Dominic Grieve for instance as they didn't vote to pass the WA.
If true (what do the other pollsters say?), it would mean that even if Boris succeeds in his key goal of winning back Brexit Party supporters, he will simultaneously piss off enough current Conservative supporters to negate any gains.
I’d hate to be a smart Tory analyst trying to explain this to The Clown. I just don’t think he is the type of personality to appreciate being shown that there are errors in his homework.
But the most likely vehicle for that is a social democratic/moderate Labour government. Under Corbyn they are away with the fairies, chasing bonkers ideas about Israel and wasting money on middle class undergrads.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/o8pit1boew/TheTimes_190703_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
These proposals suggest that, for people in deprived communities, their post-Brexit vision of a better future has little to do with matters that the EU has responsibility for: instead, the ideas raise big questions for domestic policymakers.
I'll say it again plebs voting leave was like keying your own car.
And herein lies a significant problem. The situation in the Middle East is complex, both contemporarily and historically. Few - if any - major actors in the region come out with much credit. This needs to be recognised by anyone genuinely pursuing peace.
People who routinely condemn Israel, yet are best buds with the Palestinian extremist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah are not interested in peace - they are interested in the Palestinians 'winning' over the Israelis. And when those groups are vehemently not only anti-Israeli, but anti-Jew, then it's an easy step to anti-Semitism. IMV this is the trap Corbyn has fallen into.
By his friends, he will be judged (this also applies to all politicians, e.g. Boris).
The sad thing is that it's the 'ordinary' citizens of the ME who suffer. Whether it's a Jewish housewife in Haifa, a Palestinian farmer in the West bank, or a Palestinian child in a refugee camp in one of the surrounding countries. They are all being let down by their politicians, regardless of religion, culture or race. And they, not the politicians, are the ones who matter.
Corbyn doesn't appear to understand or care about this - and this is why he appears (at best) anti-Israeli, and at worst actively anti-Semitic.
We need to avoid any disasters, sort out what needs sorting out as an emergency and then deal with whatever else crops up afterwards. Parliament won't let us do anything else so we will have to do the best that we can and live with that.
That said I think the idea that an election a few days after Boris is elected, where many of the votes will have been cast even before his own result was known and where the Tory candidate is tainted - a decision Boris had no part in - is any reflection on him as leader is really stretching it.
Whatever those of us who oppose him might think, this really isn't going to be an issue for him at all in terms of the PR. The only issue will be the more fundamental one of having his tenuous majority in Parliament further reduced.
Labour opposed it to oppose the Tories. That is party before country.
These fines are so ridiculously small. If they want to do serious enforcement the system should be:
1) Fines equal say 3x or 5x the total amount raised/spent
2) During the campaign the parties should have to carry insurance against the possibility that they'll later be fined
We are the most consistently pro-EU party.
Of course we want to trigger independence. We are not exactly shy in emphasising that issue. But we hardly “oppose everything”. We have been in government for twelve years. As a government you only survive and thrive if you implement a consistently positive legislative programme. The c40% support shows that a lot of Scots appreciate our work. And a big thank you to the Greens for giving us the essential parliamentary support, particularly at Budget time.
Accordingly don't assume that what he's been saying to impress the Tory membership will bear any relation to what he does when he needs to avoid getting no-confidenced or win a general election.
I'm glad I'm not involved in charting the Tories' long-term future. I'm not sure I see many routes out of this which don't involve severe holing in the vicinity of the water line.
Corbyn claiming to want to help the Palestinian people while supporting the Iranians is one of those ironies he presumably would understand, being properly British and all.
Now they are so weak that one almost feels sorry for them. Almost.
Boris does have understanding and is far more the politician. But a combination of laziness and incompetence will be his undoing. My only hope is that it is not our undoing as well.
It would also be by far the best option from here. On the back of that, I think Johnson could call and win a GE.