On the current swing from the latest Comres poll with May as leader the LDs would indeed take Brecon and Radnor with 38% (ie the same number as signed the recall petition) to just 32% for the Tories.
However, based on the Comres hypothetical figures with Boris as PM and Tory leader the LDs and Tories would be tied on 39% each giving Boris the chance of a shock Tory hold and a huge morale boost to the Tories
Problem is postal votes will already be coming in by the time Bozo is PM . No deal won’t play well with the farming communities there .
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
That would be the end of her career as a Labour MP.
I thought it was an automatic deselection? Happy to be contradicted if wrong.
Effectively it would be! However, having just watched the clip I suspect she misspoke there. She is clearly now prepared to support No Deal rather than Remain , but when asked whether she would support a VNOC her reply was 'I don't know'. I am sure the consequences of that will soon be brought to her attention.
On the current swing from the latest Comres poll with May as leader the LDs would indeed take Brecon and Radnor with 38% (ie the same number as signed the recall petition) to just 32% for the Tories.
However, based on the Comres hypothetical figures with Boris as PM and Tory leader the LDs and Tories would be tied on 39% each giving Boris the chance of a shock Tory hold and a huge morale boost to the Tories
At least we will all have confirmation on August 1st that your comres figures are a pile of hypothetical cow dung...
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
This is not a one way street
But propping up the Tories will see their careers ending anyway . The same for Tories, voting against their own government is career ending .
Some of those Labour Leavers though will not support the Tories. Can you imagine people like Skinner or Campbell supporting the Tories .
We are in a highly unpredictable situation and loyal voting cannot be taken for granted by either of the main parties
I’d hate to be a smart Tory analyst trying to explain this to The Clown. I just don’t think he is the type of personality to appreciate being shown that there are errors in his homework.
Boris has won elections before so I'm sure he knows how to count votes and position himself where he needs to be to maximize his chances.
Accordingly don't assume that what he's been saying to impress the Tory membership will bear any relation to what he does when he needs to avoid getting no-confidenced or win a general election.
Boris won very easy elections before - in 2008 just after the financial crisis when the Tories were at least 15 points ahead in the polls and in 2012 when Labour were silly enough to put forward a candidate who was well past his sell-by date and whom many Labour supporters were dubious about. It's not at all clear he could stand up to the scrutiny of a general election campaign if his interview with Andrew Neill is anything to go by. Must rank as the least convincing performance by a (potential) PM ever. Even Brown could have done better.
I think that Boris will totally crack under pressure. We may be about to witness the most spectacular implosion in modern political history.
With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.
I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.
Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?
Hallam is ,of course, a traditional Tory seat too!
On the current swing from the latest Comres poll with May as leader the LDs would indeed take Brecon and Radnor with 38% (ie the same number as signed the recall petition) to just 32% for the Tories.
However, based on the Comres hypothetical figures with Boris as PM and Tory leader the LDs and Tories would be tied on 39% each giving Boris the chance of a shock Tory hold and a huge morale boost to the Tories
Bear in mind that by-elections routinely result in a swing against the government about 1.4 times the size of that implied by the polls at the time - presumably because of the greater incentives to protest or abstain (or smaller disincentives against doing so), for people who might be inclined towards the government in a lesser-of-two-evils kind of way.
Just been digging through the ComRes tables. Fascinating to see how few Brexit Party supporters are former Conservative voters:
Percentage of Brexit Party VI by vote behaviour last election: Conservatives 57% Labour 20% Some other party 11% (presumably mainly UKIP) Did not vote 7% Lib Dems 3% SNP 0.6% Plaid Cymru 0.3%
This should be remembered every time posters (eg HYUFD) lazily add Bxp + Con figures to come up with fantasy numbers for the Drive-over-the-cliff Party.
Interesting - what really surprises me is the low non-voter % for BXP. That suggests real mainstream inroads, rather than the sort of "for two pins I'd vote for a change" type who sometimes gave UKIP high ratings. Basically, as your figures show, they are mostly taking a chunk of regular Tory voters. Whether that remains true is likely to decide the election if it's any time soon.
One of the false assumptions of 2017, common on PB, was that the Kippers would all go Tory. The same may well be true of the BXP.
Also worth noting that current Conservative supporters are only 65:35 to Leave, and that's going by their 2016 vote rather than current opinion. There are a lot of Tory remainers there to lose.
Wow. That is an amazing statistic. Are 35% of current Conservative supporters still in favour of Remaining members of the EU? That is huge, and actually hard to believe in the current bonkers climate.
If true (what do the other pollsters say?), it would mean that even if Boris succeeds in his key goal of winning back Brexit Party supporters, he will simultaneously piss off enough current Conservative supporters to negate any gains.
I’d hate to be a smart Tory analyst trying to explain this to The Clown. I just don’t think he is the type of personality to appreciate being shown that there are errors in his homework.
Given 57% of Brexit Party voters voted Tory in 2017 but only 35% of the Tory vote is still made up of Remainers it is clear where the gains are, if Remainers are still voting Tory they clearly would not touch Corbyn if their life depended on it anyway, at most they would go LD
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
This is not a one way street
If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.
So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
I don’t think the 26 are in the bag yet, but there is certainly a chance. Boundless BINO puts Brexit to bed for the rest of the term (whether short or long) and would be easy to undo if a Remain-leaning government follows the Tories. There’ll be some grumbling but it would probably fly. Unless the ERG vote it down.
Further hints that this may be in the offing makes £/$ a very attractive proposition.
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
This is not a one way street
But propping up the Tories will see their careers ending anyway . The same for Tories, voting against their own government is career ending .
Some of those Labour Leavers though will not support the Tories. Can you imagine people like Skinner or Campbell supporting the Tories .
The only Labour MP who might support the Tories on no deal is Hoey IMO. As you correctly point out, most of the other Labour leavers are old lefties, 1970s retreads, who would never support any Tory, let alone Boris.
On the current swing from the latest Comres poll with May as leader the LDs would indeed take Brecon and Radnor with 38% (ie the same number as signed the recall petition) to just 32% for the Tories.
However, based on the Comres hypothetical figures with Boris as PM and Tory leader the LDs and Tories would be tied on 39% each giving Boris the chance of a shock Tory hold and a huge morale boost to the Tories
Bear in mind that by-elections routinely result in a swing against the government about 1.4 times the size of that implied by the polls at the time - presumably because of the greater incentives to protest or abstain (or smaller disincentives against doing so), for people who might be inclined towards the government in a lesser-of-two-evils kind of way.
Few by elections take place a week after a new PM with a poll bounce though
With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.
I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.
Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
This is not a one way street
If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.
So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
I don’t think the 26 are in the bag yet, but there is certainly a chance. Boundless BINO puts Brexit to bed for the rest of the term (whether short or long) and would be easy to undo if a Remain-leaning government follows the Tories. There’ll be some grumbling but it would probably fly. Unless the ERG vote it down.
Further hints that this may be in the offing makes £/$ a very attractive proposition.
I think a deal is more than possible and that would give an instant boost to the pound
I am not saying it is odds on but I believe it is much more likely than no deal
On the current swing from the latest Comres poll with May as leader the LDs would indeed take Brecon and Radnor with 38% (ie the same number as signed the recall petition) to just 32% for the Tories.
However, based on the Comres hypothetical figures with Boris as PM and Tory leader the LDs and Tories would be tied on 39% each giving Boris the chance of a shock Tory hold and a huge morale boost to the Tories
Problem is postal votes will already be coming in by the time Bozo is PM . No deal won’t play well with the farming communities there .
Postal votes don't go out until the end of the week and Boris will be PM by the end of next Monday.
Brecon and Radnor voted Leave, yet we will still be in the EU by the time of the by election
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
That would be the end of her career as a Labour MP.
I thought it was an automatic deselection? Happy to be contradicted if wrong.
Effectively it would be! However, having just watched the clip I suspect she misspoke there. She is clearly now prepared to support No Deal rather than Remain , but when asked whether she would support a VNOC her reply was 'I don't know'. I am sure the consequences of that will soon be brought to her attention.
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
This is not a one way street
If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.
So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
You keep saying that but I have always backed the WDA, I am not Mark Francois
On the current swing from the latest Comres poll with May as leader the LDs would indeed take Brecon and Radnor with 38% (ie the same number as signed the recall petition) to just 32% for the Tories.
However, based on the Comres hypothetical figures with Boris as PM and Tory leader the LDs and Tories would be tied on 39% each giving Boris the chance of a shock Tory hold and a huge morale boost to the Tories
Bear in mind that by-elections routinely result in a swing against the government about 1.4 times the size of that implied by the polls at the time - presumably because of the greater incentives to protest or abstain (or smaller disincentives against doing so), for people who might be inclined towards the government in a lesser-of-two-evils kind of way.
Few by elections take place a week after a new PM with a poll bounce though
I recall the Luton by-election held on the same day as the Kinross & West Perthshire by-election in November 1963. The latter enabled Alec Douglas-Home to return to the Commons having become PM a few weeks earlier. Luton was a Labour gain.
With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.
I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.
Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?
Hallam is ,of course, a traditional Tory seat too!
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
This is not a one way street
If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.
So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
You keep saying that but I have always backed the WDA, I am not Mark Francois
You give a good impression of him from time to time
With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.
I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.
Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?
Hallam is ,of course, a traditional Tory seat too!
Used to be. I don't have detailed knowledge but my impression is that the local Con presence is much withered. Perhaps had the LDs not made such an impact, it might well be Con now but it's not that kind of 2-party fight.
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
That would be the end of her career as a Labour MP.
I thought it was an automatic deselection? Happy to be contradicted if wrong.
Effectively it would be! However, having just watched the clip I suspect she misspoke there. She is clearly now prepared to support No Deal rather than Remain , but when asked whether she would support a VNOC her reply was 'I don't know'. I am sure the consequences of that will soon be brought to her attention.
And you think she doesn't know that.
As I say, in the pressure of an interview she probably misspoke!
On the current swing from the latest Comres poll with May as leader the LDs would indeed take Brecon and Radnor with 38% (ie the same number as signed the recall petition) to just 32% for the Tories.
However, based on the Comres hypothetical figures with Boris as PM and Tory leader the LDs and Tories would be tied on 39% each giving Boris the chance of a shock Tory hold and a huge morale boost to the Tories
Bear in mind that by-elections routinely result in a swing against the government about 1.4 times the size of that implied by the polls at the time - presumably because of the greater incentives to protest or abstain (or smaller disincentives against doing so), for people who might be inclined towards the government in a lesser-of-two-evils kind of way.
Few by elections take place a week after a new PM with a poll bounce though
I recall the Luton by-election held on the same day as the Kinross & West Perthshire by-election in November 1963. The latter enabled Alec Douglas-Home to return to the Commons having become PM a few weeks earlier. Luton was a Labour gain.
So Home did win one by election then on becoming PM in a rural seat not dissimilar to Brecon
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
This is not a one way street
But propping up the Tories will see their careers ending anyway . The same for Tories, voting against their own government is career ending .
Some of those Labour Leavers though will not support the Tories. Can you imagine people like Skinner or Campbell supporting the Tories .
The only Labour MP who might support the Tories on no deal is Hoey IMO. As you correctly point out, most of the other Labour leavers are old lefties, 1970s retreads, who would never support any Tory, let alone Boris.
True , even if they’re not seeking re election do they want their final act to be propping up the Tories .
Hoey is an exception , Champion will soon start backtracking . Her local party will be outraged at her comments .
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
That would be the end of her career as a Labour MP.
I thought it was an automatic deselection? Happy to be contradicted if wrong.
Effectively it would be! However, having just watched the clip I suspect she misspoke there. She is clearly now prepared to support No Deal rather than Remain , but when asked whether she would support a VNOC her reply was 'I don't know'. I am sure the consequences of that will soon be brought to her attention.
And you think she doesn't know that.
As I say, in the pressure of an interview she probably misspoke!
On the current swing from the latest Comres poll with May as leader the LDs would indeed take Brecon and Radnor with 38% (ie the same number as signed the recall petition) to just 32% for the Tories.
However, based on the Comres hypothetical figures with Boris as PM and Tory leader the LDs and Tories would be tied on 39% each giving Boris the chance of a shock Tory hold and a huge morale boost to the Tories
Bear in mind that by-elections routinely result in a swing against the government about 1.4 times the size of that implied by the polls at the time - presumably because of the greater incentives to protest or abstain (or smaller disincentives against doing so), for people who might be inclined towards the government in a lesser-of-two-evils kind of way.
Few by elections take place a week after a new PM with a poll bounce though
I recall the Luton by-election held on the same day as the Kinross & West Perthshire by-election in November 1963. The latter enabled Alec Douglas-Home to return to the Commons having become PM a few weeks earlier. Luton was a Labour gain.
So Home did win one by election then on becoming PM in a rural seat not dissimilar to Brecon
I think it was a very different type of seat. Indeed Brecon & Radnor was then a fairly safe Labour seat - albeit on more favourable boundaries.
Dems need to talk about Trump and healthcare from dawn til dusk. And forget about a fully public, single service. Talk about keeping ObamaCare and expanding.
Scare enough people about losing their health insurance and the election is won.
With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.
I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.
Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?
Hallam is ,of course, a traditional Tory seat too!
Used to be. I don't have detailed knowledge but my impression is that the local Con presence is much withered. Perhaps had the LDs not made such an impact, it might well be Con now but it's not that kind of 2-party fight.
Sheffield Hallam Tories are pretty much focused on winning other nearby seats like Penistone & Stocksbridge, Rother Valley, and Don Valley.
Quite a lot of us came up to campaign in the marginal rich seats of West Yorkshire.
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
That would be the end of her career as a Labour MP.
I thought it was an automatic deselection? Happy to be contradicted if wrong.
Effectively it would be! However, having just watched the clip I suspect she misspoke there. She is clearly now prepared to support No Deal rather than Remain , but when asked whether she would support a VNOC her reply was 'I don't know'. I am sure the consequences of that will soon be brought to her attention.
And you think she doesn't know that.
As I say, in the pressure of an interview she probably misspoke!
And then she may not have.
You will have to form your own view of that if you care to watch the clip.
With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.
I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.
Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?
Hallam is ,of course, a traditional Tory seat too!
With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.
I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.
Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?
Hallam is ,of course, a traditional Tory seat too!
Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom. Unless or until they choose to leave the UK, that is too much.
If in order to get a trade deal with the USA we were to let the USA effectively annex Scotland, granting the US Congress the right to change Scottish laws without any say of the Scottish Parliament or Scottish voters would that be acceptable? Should we shrug our shoulders and say "Its only Scotland"?
For an English nationalist you seem to blow curiously hot and cold on the subject of the UK. In any case when it comes to winning their preshuss, polling suggests that the attitude of hard core Brexiteers' (of which I'd assumed you're one) seems to be very much "It's only Scotland", and "It's only NI" for that matter.
I am not a hardcore Brexiteer though my principled objection to the backstop forces me to side with them at the minute it seems. I am a democrat first and foremost. For as long as the UK exists I want the best for all my compatriots - including the Northern Irish and Scots.
With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.
I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.
Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?
Hallam is ,of course, a traditional Tory seat too!
With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.
I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.
Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?
Hallam is ,of course, a traditional Tory seat too!
Yes but TSE is now a traditional LD!!
As are you, as a Remainer.
Yet I now back Brexit, Deal or No Deal.
Who cares. You voted Remain hence you are a Remainer.
With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.
I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.
Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?
Hallam is ,of course, a traditional Tory seat too!
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
This is not a one way street
If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.
So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
Why would anybody change their vote over a "cosmetic" change?
Dems need to talk about Trump and healthcare from dawn til dusk. And forget about a fully public, single service. Talk about keeping ObamaCare and expanding.
Scare enough people about losing their health insurance and the election is won.
Not if Trump scares enough people about Warren banning private health insurance
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.
Genius.
Well they are idiots, after all.
Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.
Must say that website is quite poor as there is no detail about the specifics of the vote, just a vague title. A link to hansard would have been most helpful.
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
This is not a one way street
If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.
So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.
BINO makes so much sense for so many people. If we really are going to move away from our relationship with Europe it is a better first step than something more radical. If you want to honour the result with doing any damage it is the logical thing to do. If you want to rejoin as soon as possible it leaves the route back in open. The only good reason for opposing it is if you are an ultra-remainer and think the chaos strengthens your hand. I don't think even that stands up to scrutiny mind you.
The Tories are not the same party they were even a few years ago. I used to be a member and vote for them because I thought they were best on the economy, defence, projecting UK power on the world stage etc. But Brexit threatens the economy and I cannot vote for that! If you think pulling up the drawbridge from voters like me is going to help the Tories, you are in for a nasty surprise!
Another perhaps relevant point for the medium term is that even to the extent that they are potentially exchanging one set of voters for another, what they are also likely doing is replacing a pretty reliable voting block, who were pretty “low maintenance” in that they were content with politicians who were broadly competent, offered stability and were very suspicious of embarking on radical change, with a voting block who have very different expectations (or are even ideological single issue voters). The new voters are probably less detached in background from the party that will be seeking to serve them which ultimately will make it harder to understand and meet their needs/expectations.
The Tories are not the same party they were even a few years ago. I used to be a member and vote for them because I thought they were best on the economy, defence, projecting UK power on the world stage etc. But Brexit threatens the economy and I cannot vote for that! If you think pulling up the drawbridge from voters like me is going to help the Tories, you are in for a nasty surprise!
Recent converts to the "new" Tory party tell people like you to eff off. Problem is, they seem to be saying this to a lot of once-Tory supporters and in the end might well realise that once such folk have indeed effed off, then that will leave a small rump group thousands of miles from power.
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.
Genius.
Well they are idiots, after all.
Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.
Na, they won't understand its subtle complexities.
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
This is not a one way street
If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.
So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.
BINO makes so much sense for so many people. If we really are going to move away from our relationship with Europe it is a better first step than something more radical. If you want to honour the result with doing any damage it is the logical thing to do. If you want to rejoin as soon as possible it leaves the route back in open. The only good reason for opposing it is if you are an ultra-remainer and think the chaos strengthens your hand. I don't think even that stands up to scrutiny mind you.
BINO/Endless transition makes plenty of sense, except for those wedded for and against the flag with the 12 yellow stars. So it probably won't happen. We can hope though.
Look on the bright side. if you have a property in france and you want to sell it to live in Boris's Britain you'd have lots of £££££'s
But who would?
Yes but in the unlikely event we all had to come back, health care being probably the only driver, our homes, especially in Spain would be worthless so it’s not that bright.
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.
Genius.
Well they are idiots, after all.
Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.
Na, they won't understand its subtle complexities.
Phew. Now all we need to do is to make sure the EU doesn't get wind of this and we'll be home and hosed.
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
This is not a one way street
If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.
So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.
BINO makes so much sense for so many people. If we really are going to move away from our relationship with Europe it is a better first step than something more radical. If you want to honour the result with doing any damage it is the logical thing to do. If you want to rejoin as soon as possible it leaves the route back in open. The only good reason for opposing it is if you are an ultra-remainer and think the chaos strengthens your hand. I don't think even that stands up to scrutiny mind you.
BINO is a damage limitation approach to Brexit. No-one voted Leave to limit self imposed damage. No-one who voted Remain, knowing Brexit to be damaging, thinks that damage a good idea.
Two reasons there for opposing BINO, but they don't overlap, nor are they held by the same people.
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
This is not a one way street
If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.
So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.
BINO makes so much sense for so many people. If we really are going to move away from our relationship with Europe it is a better first step than something more radical. If you want to honour the result with doing any damage it is the logical thing to do. If you want to rejoin as soon as possible it leaves the route back in open. The only good reason for opposing it is if you are an ultra-remainer and think the chaos strengthens your hand. I don't think even that stands up to scrutiny mind you.
BINO/Endless transition makes plenty of sense, except for those wedded for and against the flag with the 12 yellow stars. So it probably won't happen. We can hope though.
It's such a shame because the simple fact remains that the WA was just about the most pragmatic, not to say elegant way of leaving the EU that would have allowed a sensible set of negotiations over the following 5-10 years which would have left us out and at a negotiated position on any and all of the tricky elements.
As you say, with hindsight, it was just too much to expect from our representatives.
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.
Genius.
Well they are idiots, after all.
Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.
Na, they won't understand its subtle complexities.
Phew. Now all we need to do is to make sure the EU doesn't get wind of this and we'll be home and hosed.
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
This is not a one way street
If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.
So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.
BINO makes so much sense for so many people. If we really are going to move away from our relationship with Europe it is a better first step than something more radical. If you want to honour the result with doing any damage it is the logical thing to do. If you want to rejoin as soon as possible it leaves the route back in open. The only good reason for opposing it is if you are an ultra-remainer and think the chaos strengthens your hand. I don't think even that stands up to scrutiny mind you.
Or those who want nothing to to with the EU and realise that once a deal is done there will always be a deal.
Endless BINO will probably be just that, as public appetite for re-opening the whole matter again will be very low after these last few years. Or, alternatively, the realisation of what we have lost and that the EU is still there setting all our rules without us might lead to a willingness to re-enter.
What BINO is unlikely to lead to is a thirst for more Brexit.
On the current swing from the latest Comres poll with May as leader the LDs would indeed take Brecon and Radnor with 38% (ie the same number as signed the recall petition) to just 32% for the Tories.
However, based on the Comres hypothetical figures with Boris as PM and Tory leader the LDs and Tories would be tied on 39% each giving Boris the chance of a shock Tory hold and a huge morale boost to the Tories
Problem is postal votes will already be coming in by the time Bozo is PM . No deal won’t play well with the farming communities there .
How many hotly contested by elections follow national polling?
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.
Genius.
Well they are idiots, after all.
Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.
Na, they won't understand its subtle complexities.
Phew. Now all we need to do is to make sure the EU doesn't get wind of this and we'll be home and hosed.
It's in english.
That might work the other way round, but "furriners" generally read and write English at least as good as the natives does.
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.
Genius.
Well they are idiots, after all.
Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.
Na, they won't understand its subtle complexities.
Phew. Now all we need to do is to make sure the EU doesn't get wind of this and we'll be home and hosed.
It's in english.
That might work the other way round, but "furriners" generally read and write English at least as good as the natives does.
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.
Genius.
Well they are idiots, after all.
Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.
Na, they won't understand its subtle complexities.
Phew. Now all we need to do is to make sure the EU doesn't get wind of this and we'll be home and hosed.
It's in english.
That might work the other way round, but "furriners" generally read and write English at least as good as the natives does.
Perhaps we should ban any discussion of Brexit in English and staff DExEU exclusively with Welsh speakers.
Wow Sarah Champion Labour MP would consider propping up the Tories and not vote no confidence .
This is an apposite point. Everybody is counting the Con MPs who will vonc, but nobody is counting the Labour and LD MPs who will not vonc.
I suspect she is not alone. Upto 6 leave supporting labour mps are not seeking re-election and many in leave seats could see their career ending anyway if they supported a vonc and stopped brexit
This is not a one way street
If he wisely drops no deal as soon as he gets his lazy arse in the chair, I doubt we’ll see a VONC - if Bozo bags his boundless BINO deal, then the vote on that will come first. We already know there are 20+ Labour MPs wanting to support Brexit, and the Labour Party as a whole might treat them gently if they think putting Brexit to bed gets Labour off the hook of its fence.
So, as I said, it will be decision day for the ERG to decide whether they want to veto Brexit again.
BINO makes so much sense for so many people. If we really are going to move away from our relationship with Europe it is a better first step than something more radical. If you want to honour the result with doing any damage it is the logical thing to do. If you want to rejoin as soon as possible it leaves the route back in open. The only good reason for opposing it is if you are an ultra-remainer and think the chaos strengthens your hand. I don't think even that stands up to scrutiny mind you.
BINO/Endless transition makes plenty of sense, except for those wedded for and against the flag with the 12 yellow stars. So it probably won't happen. We can hope though.
It's such a shame because the simple fact remains that the WA was just about the most pragmatic, not to say elegant way of leaving the EU that would have allowed a sensible set of negotiations over the following 5-10 years which would have left us out and at a negotiated position on any and all of the tricky elements.
It may well stand in history as the finest achievement of the two foreign secretaries concerned.
On the current swing from the latest Comres poll with May as leader the LDs would indeed take Brecon and Radnor with 38% (ie the same number as signed the recall petition) to just 32% for the Tories.
However, based on the Comres hypothetical figures with Boris as PM and Tory leader the LDs and Tories would be tied on 39% each giving Boris the chance of a shock Tory hold and a huge morale boost to the Tories
Bear in mind that by-elections routinely result in a swing against the government about 1.4 times the size of that implied by the polls at the time - presumably because of the greater incentives to protest or abstain (or smaller disincentives against doing so), for people who might be inclined towards the government in a lesser-of-two-evils kind of way.
Few by elections take place a week after a new PM with a poll bounce though
That just implies that the swing in the national polls will be smaller than it is now, which may be true but the by-election swing is still likely to be larger than the national polling at the time.
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.
Genius.
Well they are idiots, after all.
Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.
Na, they won't understand its subtle complexities.
Phew. Now all we need to do is to make sure the EU doesn't get wind of this and we'll be home and hosed.
It's in english.
That might work the other way round, but "furriners" generally read and write English at least as good as the natives does.
Yes, it was a joke.
Sorry, my mistake. With Brexit, I always find it hard to tell which bits are jokes.
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.
Genius.
Do the ERG have a choice? No doubt many gave Raab or McVey their first choice but they have been eliminated. Given the choice of Boris or Hunt it clearly has to be Boris.
Do the ERG have a choice? No doubt many gave Raab or McVey their first choice but they have been eliminated. Given the choice of Boris or Hunt it clearly has to be Boris.
Hunt is more likely to "deliver Brexit" than BoZo, so yes, the ERG will choose BoZo
Just catching up with Boris' latest Telegraph column. Wherein his knowledge of Churchill enables him to discern the cure for mental ill health. Astounding that whole armies of scientists, researchers and qualified people, not to mention sufferers, have been wasting their time. Why didn't they simply ask Boris what Churchill did?
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.
Genius.
Well they are idiots, after all.
Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.
Na, they won't understand its subtle complexities.
Phew. Now all we need to do is to make sure the EU doesn't get wind of this and we'll be home and hosed.
It's in english.
That might work the other way round, but "furriners" generally read and write English at least as good as the natives does.
Yes, it was a joke.
Sorry, my mistake. With Brexit, I always find it hard to tell which bits are jokes.
The funny bits of Brexit are those that wind up Remainers.
They are usually written on a bus, just in case they miss them.
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.
Genius.
Well they are idiots, after all.
Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.
Na, they won't understand its subtle complexities.
Phew. Now all we need to do is to make sure the EU doesn't get wind of this and we'll be home and hosed.
It's in english.
That might work the other way round, but "furriners" generally read and write English at least as good as the natives does.
Yes, it was a joke.
Sorry, my mistake. With Brexit, I always find it hard to tell which bits are jokes.
The funny bits of Brexit are those that wind up Remainers.
They are usually written on a bus, just in case they miss them.
Exactly right. We laugh at the Leavers who believed things written on the side of a bus.
At an emotional level, Grieve has long since ceased to be a Conservative.
At every level the Conservatives have long ceased being conservative. This time it really is a case of "I didn't leave my party. My party left me."
Times change, and the Conservatives have to change with the times. The voters aren't interested in an unideological party that represents the great and the good, any longer.
At an emotional level, Grieve has long since ceased to be a Conservative.
At every level the Conservatives have long ceased being conservative. This time it really is a case of "I didn't leave my party. My party left me."
Times change, and the Conservatives have to change with the times. The voters aren't interested in an unideological party that represents the great and the good, any longer.
Just catching up with Boris' latest Telegraph column. Wherein his knowledge of Churchill enables him to discern the cure for mental ill health. Astounding that whole armies of scientists, researchers and qualified people, not to mention sufferers, have been wasting their time. Why didn't they simply ask Boris what Churchill did?
Boris is turning out to be very similar to our very own SeanT. Have they ever been seen in a room together?
Very good jobs and wages figures just out. Real-term pay (adjusted for inflation) up 1.4% compared with a year ago,. Unemployment at 3.8% is best figure since 1974.
Those are stonkingly good figures when you consider that both the UK economy and the world economies are not doing particularly well. It shows that the structural changes and sound economic management of the last 9 years have really brought benefits. A pity that it's probably all going to be thrown away.
But over 1.5 million are now part-time self employed. How much of that is voluntary? Very different to the mid-1970s.
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.
Genius.
Well they are idiots, after all.
Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.
Na, they won't understand its subtle complexities.
Phew. Now all we need to do is to make sure the EU doesn't get wind of this and we'll be home and hosed.
It's in english.
That might work the other way round, but "furriners" generally read and write English at least as good as the natives does.
Yes, it was a joke.
Sorry, my mistake. With Brexit, I always find it hard to tell which bits are jokes.
The funny bits of Brexit are those that wind up Remainers.
They are usually written on a bus, just in case they miss them.
Certainly I've noticed that trolls generally think it's funny to wind people up.
Mr. G, polling showed a majority of those on zero hours contracts are content with them. The idea zero hours = evil is nonsense (as is the idea there's no room to sharpen up regulation here and there).
Very good jobs and wages figures just out. Real-term pay (adjusted for inflation) up 1.4% compared with a year ago,. Unemployment at 3.8% is best figure since 1974.
Those are stonkingly good figures when you consider that both the UK economy and the world economies are not doing particularly well. It shows that the structural changes and sound economic management of the last 9 years have really brought benefits. A pity that it's probably all going to be thrown away.
But over 1.5 million are now part-time self employed. How much of that is voluntary? Very different to the mid-1970s.
Just catching up with Boris' latest Telegraph column. Wherein his knowledge of Churchill enables him to discern the cure for mental ill health. Astounding that whole armies of scientists, researchers and qualified people, not to mention sufferers, have been wasting their time. Why didn't they simply ask Boris what Churchill did?
Dare I ask the treatment? Pol Roger for Breakfast, brandy for dinner?
Just catching up with Boris' latest Telegraph column. Wherein his knowledge of Churchill enables him to discern the cure for mental ill health. Astounding that whole armies of scientists, researchers and qualified people, not to mention sufferers, have been wasting their time. Why didn't they simply ask Boris what Churchill did?
Dare I ask the treatment? Pol Roger for Breakfast, brandy for dinner?
Just catching up with Boris' latest Telegraph column. Wherein his knowledge of Churchill enables him to discern the cure for mental ill health. Astounding that whole armies of scientists, researchers and qualified people, not to mention sufferers, have been wasting their time. Why didn't they simply ask Boris what Churchill did?
Well, in a field where none of the hundreds of drug treatments reliably outperforms placebo, constructive suggestions of alternative approaches are to be welcomed. Actually Churchill's best dictum on the point was that "there is nothing better for the inside of a man than the outside of a horse," but I can see that that doesn't suit Boris's agenda.
Just catching up with Boris' latest Telegraph column. Wherein his knowledge of Churchill enables him to discern the cure for mental ill health. Astounding that whole armies of scientists, researchers and qualified people, not to mention sufferers, have been wasting their time. Why didn't they simply ask Boris what Churchill did?
Well, in a field where none of the hundreds of drug treatments reliably outperforms placebo, constructive suggestions of alternative approaches are to be welcomed. Actually Churchill's best dictum on the point was that "there is nothing better for the inside of a man than the outside of a horse," but I can see that that doesn't suit Boris's agenda.
With great reluctance I've concluded along with others on here that the Conservatives are unlikely to get my vote at the next election unless the trajectory changes dramatically. It would be the first time ever for me.
I'm fortunate I live in a Lab/Lib Dem marginal, especially if the Labour candidate is going to be a Corbynite true believer.
Won't you have the delightful Jared as an option too?
If I’m really unlucky.
Unlucky it is. "I am going nowhere, and I'm here for you whether you want me here for you or not", he said. "With the support of those around me and with renewed vigour, I'm standing again next time." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-48981885
I have been saying to HYUFD that he and his ERG friends are being taken for a ride for some time now and I am very much in agreement with you that Boris will achieve a cosmetic change that will see a majority for the WDA and that brexit will happen on the 31st October with a deal
I cannot imagine Boris is prepared to risk his Premiership in a no deal brexit and I would expect upto 40 labour mps (26 already declared) to vote to leave so the agenda can move on
So you have seen through his cunning plan but the ERG will be completely unaware and fall for it hook line and sinker.
Genius.
Well they are idiots, after all.
Very true but they will have read Big G's post and might have twigged.
Mr. G, polling showed a majority of those on zero hours contracts are content with them. The idea zero hours = evil is nonsense (as is the idea there's no room to sharpen up regulation here and there).
Comments
Further hints that this may be in the offing makes £/$ a very attractive proposition.
Dems need to hold their nerve:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/07/trumps-tweets-are-baiting-democrats/593956/?utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_source=twitter&utm_term=2019-07-15T12:08:38&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_medium=social
Melanie Phillips
President’s hostile tweets turned his opponents’ obsession with identity politics against them" (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/trump-is-playing-the-democrats-at-their-own-race-game-3kl9nksdz
I am not saying it is odds on but I believe it is much more likely than no deal
Brecon and Radnor voted Leave, yet we will still be in the EU by the time of the by election
Hoey is an exception , Champion will soon start backtracking . Her local party will be outraged at her comments .
Scare enough people about losing their health insurance and the election is won.
Quite a lot of us came up to campaign in the marginal rich seats of West Yorkshire.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1151072755602927616?s=20
Genius.
As you say, not a good place to be.
Two reasons there for opposing BINO, but they don't overlap, nor are they held by the same people.
Which is why May's Deal is so unpopular.
As you say, with hindsight, it was just too much to expect from our representatives.
https://tinyurl.com/yy7rrazv
https://tinyurl.com/y4mr58rs
So you can now see where people are moving from and to within England and Wales.
Their Excel analysis tool is very impressive too:
https://tinyurl.com/y4bc5jpd
Endless BINO will probably be just that, as public appetite for re-opening the whole matter again will be very low after these last few years. Or, alternatively, the realisation of what we have lost and that the EU is still there setting all our rules without us might lead to a willingness to re-enter.
What BINO is unlikely to lead to is a thirst for more Brexit.
Astounding that whole armies of scientists, researchers and qualified people, not to mention sufferers, have been wasting their time.
Why didn't they simply ask Boris what Churchill did?
They are usually written on a bus, just in case they miss them.
Mr. Jessop, a cruel comparison!
Mr. G, polling showed a majority of those on zero hours contracts are content with them. The idea zero hours = evil is nonsense (as is the idea there's no room to sharpen up regulation here and there).
There are actually a fair few similarities between Boris and SeanT; although it's perhaps best left to the reader to work them out ...
Are the commentators wrong or the punters?
"I am going nowhere, and I'm here for you whether you want me here for you or not", he said.
"With the support of those around me and with renewed vigour, I'm standing again next time."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-48981885
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html
Google takes me to a poll showing only 25% prefer them and 2/3 would rather have guaranteed hours:
https://www.tuc.org.uk/news/two-thirds-zero-hours-workers-want-jobs-guaranteed-hours-tuc-polling-reveals