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You can’t bet your country on one poll. YouGov has Hunt well ahead of Johnson amongst the general public. The poll you rely on was striking but has received a tremendous amount of criticism. Outside the Conservative party he is becoming increasingly toxic. The comparisons with Corbyn are apt. The Tories have won only one majority in 30 years, and that was paper thin, and I see no reason to think that that will change. The Blue team have only had two years of majority government since December 1996 - that’s nearly a quarter of a century - and look what they did with it.HYUFD said:
It was the outliers correct in 2015 and 2017DougSeal said:
A bit of an outlier given subsequent polling don’t you think?HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20Philip_Thompson said:
Where's a poll showing an overall majority pre-Brexit with BXP standing and Remainers tactically voting against?HYUFD said:
No it isn't at all, that is polling if we have not left the EU in October NOT polling before October on a platform of leaving the EU Deal or No Deal and requesting a majority to deliver Brexit.Foxy said:
Delusional on both counts!HYUFD said:
Boris will win a majority by October, then the WA will passFoxy said:
So in order to meet the October deadline will he whip through the WA more effectively than May? If not it is No Deal and no FTA.HYUFD said:
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, duhDougSeal said:
How? What’s his plan? How’s he going to get an FTA without a withdrawal agreement? How is “belief” going to achieve anything? Do you believe in faith healing as well? That works on the same principles,HYUFD said:
Whinge, whinge, whinge from the diehard Remainers.Scott_P said:
Meanwhile Boris actually believes in Brexit and will get on with delivering it and the FTA for GB most voters want
This is the polling for an October election before Brexit.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1144622315050872833?s=19
So wrong0 -
Boris does not need a majority in London to win a UK majority though does heanothernick said:
Boris' reputation as an election winner is based on his defeating Ken, who by 2008, never mind 2012, was a shop soiled candidate representing a party which was deeply unpopular nationally. And this was before Brexit had been thought of. If he ran in London today he would be slaughtered.DougSeal said:
I thought about voting Boris in 2008 as I thought Ken was losing it and I had had a massive row with Sian Berry (who I was at college with) a couple of years before and petulantly wanted to piss her off. I held my nose and voted for Ken.anothernick said:
My wife, who is not very interested in politics, quite liked Boris when he was mayor of London (we live in London). She thought Theresa May was doing her best but was undermined by conspiratorial men. Following recent revelations she now considers Boris a disgusting individual, how could anyone support a man who treats women so badly? I suspect she is not alone in holding this view.DougSeal said:anothernick said:
I see a large porcine animal levitating outside my window....HYUFD said:
Boris will win a majority by October, then the WA will passFoxy said:
So in order to meet the October deadline will he whip through the WA more effectively than May? If not it is No Deal and no FTA.HYUFD said:
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, duhDougSeal said:
How? What’s his plan? How’s he going to get an FTA without a withdrawal agreement? How is “belief” going to achieve anything? Do you believe in faith healing as well? That works on the same principles,HYUFD said:
Whinge, whinge, whinge from the diehard Remainers.Scott_P said:
Meanwhile Boris actually believes in Brexit and will get on with delivering it and the FTA for GB most voters want
Quite, Boris fans don’t understand that the rest of us are immune to his charms.0 -
Oh dear, that does worry me. Boris' reputation as an election winner is based on his defeating Corbyn, who by 2019 was a shop soiled candidate representing a party which was deeply unpopular nationally!anothernick said:
Boris' reputation as an election winner is based on his defeating Ken, who by 2008, never mind 2012, was a shop soiled candidate representing a party which was deeply unpopular nationally. And this was before Brexit had been thought of. If he ran in London today he would be slaughtered.DougSeal said:
I thought about voting Boris in 2008 as I thought Ken was losing it and I had had a massive row with Sian Berry (who I was at college with) a couple of years before and petulantly wanted to piss her off. I held my nose and voted for Ken.anothernick said:
My wife, who is not very interested in politics, quite liked Boris when he was mayor of London (we live in London). She thought Theresa May was doing her best but was undermined by conspiratorial men. Following recent revelations she now considers Boris a disgusting individual, how could anyone support a man who treats women so badly? I suspect she is not alone in holding this view.DougSeal said:anothernick said:
I see a large porcine animal levitating outside my window....HYUFD said:
Boris will win a majority by October, then the WA will passFoxy said:
So in order to meet the October deadline will he whip through the WA more effectively than May? If not it is No Deal and no FTA.HYUFD said:
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, duhDougSeal said:
How? What’s his plan? How’s he going to get an FTA without a withdrawal agreement? How is “belief” going to achieve anything? Do you believe in faith healing as well? That works on the same principles,HYUFD said:
Whinge, whinge, whinge from the diehard Remainers.Scott_P said:
Meanwhile Boris actually believes in Brexit and will get on with delivering it and the FTA for GB most voters want
Quite, Boris fans don’t understand that the rest of us are immune to his charms.0 -
The point that is being made is that he is overrated as a vote winner.HYUFD said:
Boris does not need a majority in London to win a UK majority though does heanothernick said:
Boris' reputation as an election winner is based on his defeating Ken, who by 2008, never mind 2012, was a shop soiled candidate representing a party which was deeply unpopular nationally. And this was before Brexit had been thought of. If he ran in London today he would be slaughtered.DougSeal said:
I thought about voting Boris in 2008 as I thought Ken was losing it and I had had a massive row with Sian Berry (who I was at college with) a couple of years before and petulantly wanted to piss her off. I held my nose and voted for Ken.anothernick said:
My wife, who is not very interested in politics, quite liked Boris when he was mayor of London (we live in London). She thought Theresa May was doing her best but was undermined by conspiratorial men. Following recent revelations she now considers Boris a disgusting individual, how could anyone support a man who treats women so badly? I suspect she is not alone in holding this view.DougSeal said:anothernick said:
I see a large porcine animal levitating outside my window....HYUFD said:
Boris will win a majority by October, then the WA will passFoxy said:
So in order to meet the October deadline will he whip through the WA more effectively than May? If not it is No Deal and no FTA.HYUFD said:
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, duhDougSeal said:
How? What’s his plan? How’s he going to get an FTA without a withdrawal agreement? How is “belief” going to achieve anything? Do you believe in faith healing as well? That works on the same principles,HYUFD said:
Whinge, whinge, whinge from the diehard Remainers.Scott_P said:
Meanwhile Boris actually believes in Brexit and will get on with delivering it and the FTA for GB most voters want
Quite, Boris fans don’t understand that the rest of us are immune to his charms.0 -
Ministry to be entirely made up of MPs who want Boris's 100 day plan to be out by 31st Oct.
GE 2019 still on offer at 2.9
Free money!!!!
DYOR
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/29/boris-johnson-set-brexit-war-cabinetto-force-britains-eu-departure/0 -
I write as a former Conservative Party member and onetime candidate (in an unwinnable council seat where a candidate was needed to make up the numbers). The choice between Hunt and Johnson is like a choice between anthrax and leprosy. Personally I favour johnsson, purely because he will rapidly lead to the destruction of the Tory party, which is what it deserves, and then just possibly some realignment of the centre ground0
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Quite. Probably the most disastrous two years for the UK since the 18th century.DougSeal said:
You can’t bet your country on one poll. YouGov has Hunt well ahead of Johnson amongst the general public. The poll you rely on was striking but has received a tremendous amount of criticism. Outside the Conservative party he is becoming increasingly toxic. The comparisons with Corbyn are apt. The Tories have won only one majority in 30 years, and that was paper thin, and I see no reason to think that that will change. The Blue team have only had two years of majority government since December 1996 - that’s nearly a quarter of a century - and look what they did with it.HYUFD said:
It was the outliers correct in 2015 and 2017DougSeal said:
A bit of an outlier given subsequent polling don’t you think?HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20Philip_Thompson said:
Where's a poll showing an overall majority pre-Brexit with BXP standing and Remainers tactically voting against?HYUFD said:
No it isn't at all, that is polling if we have not left the EU in October NOT polling before October on a platform of leaving the EU Deal or No Deal and requesting a majority to deliver Brexit.Foxy said:
Delusional on both counts!HYUFD said:
Boris will win a majority by October, then the WA will passFoxy said:
So in order to meet the October deadline will he whip through the WA more effectively than May? If not it is No Deal and no FTA.HYUFD said:
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, duhDougSeal said:
How? What’s his plan? How’s he going to get an FTA without a withdrawal agreement? How is “belief” going to achieve anything? Do you believe in faith healing as well? That works on the same principles,HYUFD said:
Whinge, whinge, whinge from the diehard Remainers.Scott_P said:
Meanwhile Boris actually believes in Brexit and will get on with delivering it and the FTA for GB most voters want
This is the polling for an October election before Brexit.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1144622315050872833?s=19
So wrong0 -
That simply is not true and no amount of partial interpretation of selected polls will make it any more true. I know Doug and I have our differences but like him I have always wanted the EFTA solution to our EU relationship. We differ now on what should happen but ours is no more a minority opinion than your Canada FTA solution. It is just a different one. We might end up with your solution but I see no evidence to support the idea it is any more popular than EFTA or a number of other end points.HYUFD said:
The Brexit most people wanted as I have already posted is a Canada style FTA0 -
Yougov has Hunt well ahead of Boris with LD, Labour and Remain voters most of whom would not actually vote Tory even if Hunt was leader.DougSeal said:
You can’t bet your country on one poll. YouGov has Hunt well ahead of Johnson amongst the general public. The poll you rely on was striking but has received a tremendous amount of criticism. Outside the Conservative party he is becoming increasingly toxic. The comparisons with Corbyn are apt. The Tories have won only one majority in 30 years, and that was paper thin, and I see no reason to think that that will change. The Blue team have only had two years of majority government since December 1996 - that’s nearly a quarter of a century - and look what they did with it.HYUFD said:
It was the outliers correct in 2015 and 2017DougSeal said:
A bit of an outlier given subsequent polling don’t you think?HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20Philip_Thompson said:
Where's a poll showing an overall majority pre-Brexit with BXP standing and Remainers tactically voting against?HYUFD said:
No it isn't at all, that is polling if we have not lengFoxy said:
Delusional on both counts!HYUFD said:
Boris will win a majority by October, then the WA will passFoxy said:
So in order to meet the October deadline will he whip through the WA more effectively than May? If not it is No Deal and no FTA.HYUFD said:
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, duhDougSeal said:
This is the polling for an October election before Brexit.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1144622315050872833?s=19
Yougov also has Boris ahead of Hunt with Tory, Brexit Party and Leave voters who are actually quite likely to vote Tory if Boris was leader.
Boris would be the most charismatic Tory leader since Thatcher and like Thatcher actually believes in conservative principles and national sovereignty, the liberal left may despise him but they despised Thatcher too. That did not stop her winning0 -
The question I ask of both the Labour and Conservative Parties (or indeed any party) is have you ever stepped back and considered whether your parties DESERVE to survive?franklyn said:I write as a former Conservative Party member and onetime candidate (in an unwinnable council seat where a candidate was needed to make up the numbers). The choice between Hunt and Johnson is like a choice between anthrax and leprosy. Personally I favour johnsson, purely because he will rapidly lead to the destruction of the Tory party, which is what it deserves, and then just possibly some realignment of the centre ground
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Boris will smash Corbyn . He is the best shot the tories have to defeat Farage as well. Under FPTP if he goes on a ticket of deal/ no deal by 31/10 he will clean upDougSeal said:
You can’t bet your country on one poll. YouGov has Hunt well ahead of Johnson amongst the general public. The poll you rely on was striking but has received a tremendous amount of criticism. Outside the Conservative party he is becoming increasingly toxic. The comparisons with Corbyn are apt. The Tories have won only one majority in 30 years, and that was paper thin, and I see no reason to think that that will change. The Blue team have only had two years of majority government since December 1996 - that’s nearly a quarter of a century - and look what they did with it.HYUFD said:
It was the outliers correct in 2015 and 2017DougSeal said:
A bit of an outlier given subsequent polling don’t you think?HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20Philip_Thompson said:
Where's a poll showing an overall majority pre-Brexit with BXP standing and Remainers tactically voting against?HYUFD said:
No it isn't at all, that is polling if we have not left the EU in October NOT polling before October on a platform of leaving the EU Deal or No Deal and requesting a majority to deliver Brexit.Foxy said:
Delusional on both counts!HYUFD said:
Boris will win a majority by October, then the WA will passFoxy said:
So in order to meet the October deadline will he whip through the WA more effectively than May? If not it is No Deal and no FTA.HYUFD said:
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, duhDougSeal said:
How? What’s his plan? How’s he going to get an FTA without a withdrawal agreement? How is “belief” going to achieve anything? Do you believe in faith healing as well? That works on the same principles,HYUFD said:
Whinge, whinge, whinge from the diehard Remainers.Scott_P said:
Meanwhile Boris actually believes in Brexit and will get on with delivering it and the FTA for GB most voters want
This is the polling for an October election before Brexit.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1144622315050872833?s=19
So wrong0 -
So basically you are now a LDfranklyn said:I write as a former Conservative Party member and onetime candidate (in an unwinnable council seat where a candidate was needed to make up the numbers). The choice between Hunt and Johnson is like a choice between anthrax and leprosy. Personally I favour johnsson, purely because he will rapidly lead to the destruction of the Tory party, which is what it deserves, and then just possibly some realignment of the centre ground
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I have already given you evidence for that.Richard_Tyndall said:
That simply is not true and no amount of partial interpretation of selected polls will make it any more true. I know Doug and I have our differences but like him I have always wanted the EFTA solution to our EU relationship. We differ now on what should happen but ours is no more a minority opinion than your Canada FTA solution. It is just a different one. We might end up with your solution but I see no evidence to support the idea it is any more popular than EFTA or a number of other end points.HYUFD said:
The Brexit most people wanted as I have already posted is a Canada style FTA
However I will agree with you a Canada style FTA and EFTA Brexit are the 2 most favoured Brexits in the country, just the former tends to be more favoured by Leavers and the latter by Remainers (if they cannot get Remain)0 -
Yes, as we do not want 3 pro EU LD parties in the country do we? Where is the choice in that?DougSeal said:
The question I ask of both the Labour and Conservative Parties (or indeed any party) is have you ever stepped back and considered whether your parties DESERVE to survive?franklyn said:I write as a former Conservative Party member and onetime candidate (in an unwinnable council seat where a candidate was needed to make up the numbers). The choice between Hunt and Johnson is like a choice between anthrax and leprosy. Personally I favour johnsson, purely because he will rapidly lead to the destruction of the Tory party, which is what it deserves, and then just possibly some realignment of the centre ground
0 -
A lot of that is because the constituency boundaries have not been updated in 18 years. That’s a scandal.DougSeal said:
You can’t bet your country on one poll. YouGov has Hunt well ahead of Johnson amongst the general public. The poll you rely on was striking but has received a tremendous amount of criticism. Outside the Conservative party he is becoming increasingly toxic. The comparisons with Corbyn are apt. The Tories have won only one majority in 30 years, and that was paper thin, and I see no reason to think that that will change. The Blue team have only had two years of majority government since December 1996 - that’s nearly a quarter of a century - and look what they did with it.HYUFD said:
It was the outliers correct in 2015 and 2017DougSeal said:
A bit of an outlier given subsequent polling don’t you think?HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20Philip_Thompson said:
Where's a poll showing an overall majority pre-Brexit with BXP standing and Remainers tactically voting against?HYUFD said:
No it isn't at all, that is polling if we have not left the EU in October NOT polling before October on a platform of leaving the EU Deal or No Deal and requesting a majority to deliver Brexit.Foxy said:
Delusional on both counts!HYUFD said:
Boris will win a majority by October, then the WA will passFoxy said:
So in order to meet the October deadline will he whip through the WA more effectively than May? If not it is No Deal and no FTA.HYUFD said:
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, duhDougSeal said:
How? What’s his plan? How’s he going to get an FTA without a withdrawal agreement? How is “belief” going to achieve anything? Do you believe in faith healing as well? That works on the same principles,HYUFD said:
Whinge, whinge, whinge from the diehard Remainers.Scott_P said:
Meanwhile Boris actually believes in Brexit and will get on with delivering it and the FTA for GB most voters want
This is the polling for an October election before Brexit.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1144622315050872833?s=19
So wrong0 -
And he will achieve that if he he holds his nerve , even if we have to no deal firstHYUFD said:
The Brexit most people wanted as I have already posted is a Canada style FTADougSeal said:
The insult you’re looking for is metropolitan liberal elitist. I’ve wanted to rejoin EFTA since I did EU law at law school but you keep believing what you like about me. There is no evidence from me that Boris can win a working majority as there is no polling evidence at all. His personal ratings outside the Conservative party are absolutely dreadful.HYUFD said:
There is no evidence from a fanatical die hard Remainer like you who are determined that the Brexit vote a majority of voters voted for must be ignored and thrown out at all costs, for the silent Leave voting majority though there is every chance of a Boris majorityDougSeal said:
There is no evidence whatsoever to suggest the Conservatives can win a working majority under Boris. None. I mean I hope he does call an election so we can get rid of the party that has caused this mess, and I don’t want to interrupt an enemy when he’s making a mistake, but if I were you I would be careful what you wish for.HYUFD said:
Boris will win a majority then sideline the Baker and Francois ERG hardliners just as he will sideline the DUP to deliver a FTA for GBOblitusSumMe said:
Yes, but he's now promising the ERG that they can exit without a deal if they vote against any deal he offers them. So why would they support him on anything other than no deal?HYUFD said:
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, duhDougSeal said:
How? What’s his plan? How’s he going to get an FTA without a withdrawal agreement? How is “belief” going to achieve anything? Do you believe in faith healing as well? That works on the same principles,HYUFD said:
Whinge, whinge, whinge from the diehard Remainers.Scott_P said:
Meanwhile Boris actually believes in Brexit and will get on with delivering it and the FTA for GB most voters want
Now, to paraphrase Governor Tarkin, I grow tired of saying this, so I will say this only once, but there is no “Brexit a majority of voters voted for”. That’s the problem with this catastrophe. No one had an idea of a destination after leaving. I want to go to EFTA but apparently that is not “real” Brexit so, reluctantly, I now back remain.0 -
OK Mr anonymous person writing on the internet, that seems like a perfectly normal thing for a former candidate to write and not at all something somebody who always hated the Tories would write ...franklyn said:I write as a former Conservative Party member and onetime candidate (in an unwinnable council seat where a candidate was needed to make up the numbers). The choice between Hunt and Johnson is like a choice between anthrax and leprosy. Personally I favour johnsson, purely because he will rapidly lead to the destruction of the Tory party, which is what it deserves, and then just possibly some realignment of the centre ground
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Agreedkjohnw said:
Boris will smash Corbyn . He is the best shot the tories have to defeat Farage as well. Under FPTP if he goes on a ticket of deal/ no deal by 31/10 he will clean upDougSeal said:
You can’t bet your country on one poll. YouGov has Hunt well ahead of Johnson amongst the general public. The poll you rely on was striking but has received a tremendous amount of criticism. Outside the Conservative party he is becoming increasingly toxic. The comparisons with Corbyn are apt. The Tories have won only one majority in 30 years, and that was paper thin, and I see no reason to think that that will change. The Blue team have only had two years of majority government since December 1996 - that’s nearly a quarter of a century - and look what they did with it.HYUFD said:
It was the outliers correct in 2015 and 2017DougSeal said:
A bit of an outlier given subsequent polling don’t you think?HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20Philip_Thompson said:
Where's a poll showing an overall majority pre-Brexit with BXP standing and Remainers tactically voting against?HYUFD said:
No it isn't at all, that is polling if we have not left the EU in October NOT polling before October on a platform of leaving the EU Deal or No Deal and requesting a majority to deliver Brexit.Foxy said:
Delusional on both counts!HYUFD said:
Boris will win a majority by October, then the WA will passFoxy said:
So in order to meet the October deadline will he whip through the WA more effectively than May? If not it is No Deal and no FTA.HYUFD said:
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, duhDougSeal said:
How? What’s his plan? How’s he going to get an FTA without a withdrawal agreement? How is “belief” going to achieve anything? Do you believe in faith healing as well? That works on the same principles,HYUFD said:
Whinge, whinge, whinge from the diehard Remainers.Scott_P said:
Meanwhile Boris actually believes in Brexit and will get on with delivering it and the FTA for GB most voters want
This is the polling for an October election before Brexit.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1144622315050872833?s=19
So wrong0 -
Source?kjohnw said:
Boris will smash Corbyn . He is the best shot the tories have to defeat Farage as well. Under FPTP if he goes on a ticket of deal/ no deal by 31/10 he will clean upDougSeal said:
You can’t bet your country on one poll. YouGov has Hunt well ahead of Johnson amongst the general public. The poll you rely on was striking but has received a tremendous amount of criticism. Outside the Conservative party he is becoming increasingly toxic. The comparisons with Corbyn are apt. The Tories have won only one majority in 30 years, and that was paper thin, and I see no reason to think that that will change. The Blue team have only had two years of majority government since December 1996 - that’s nearly a quarter of a century - and look what they did with it.HYUFD said:
It was the outliers correct in 2015 and 2017DougSeal said:
A bit of an outlier given subsequent polling don’t you think?HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20Philip_Thompson said:
Where's a poll showing an overall majority pre-Brexit with BXP standing and Remainers tactically voting against?HYUFD said:
No it isn't at all, that is polling if we have not left the EU in October NOT polling before October on a platform of leaving the EU Deal or No Deal and requesting a majority to deliver Brexit.Foxy said:
Delusional on both counts!HYUFD said:
Boris will win a majority by October, then the WA will passFoxy said:
So in order to meet the October deadline will he whip through the WA more effectively than May? If not it is No Deal and no FTA.HYUFD said:
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, duhDougSeal said:
How? What’s his plan? How’s he going to get an FTA without a withdrawal agreement? How is “belief” going to achieve anything? Do you believe in faith healing as well? That works on the same principles,HYUFD said:
Whinge, whinge, whinge from the diehard Remainers.Scott_P said:
Meanwhile Boris actually believes in Brexit and will get on with delivering it and the FTA for GB most voters want
This is the polling for an October election before Brexit.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1144622315050872833?s=19
So wrong0 -
Agreed as well, we need someone with guts and self belief in Brexit at lastkjohnw said:
And he will achieve that if he he holds his nerve , even if we have to no deal firstHYUFD said:
The Brexit most people wanted as I have already posted is a Canada style FTADougSeal said:
The insult you’re looking for is metropolitan liberal elitist. I’ve wanted to rejoin EFTA since I did EU law at law school but you keep believing what you like about me. There is no evidence from me that Boris can win a working majority as there is no polling evidence at all. His personal ratings outside the Conservative party are absolutely dreadful.HYUFD said:
There is no evidence from a fanatical die hard Remainer like you who are determined that the Brexit vote a majority of voters voted for must be ignored and thrown out at all costs, for the silent Leave voting majority though there is every chance of a Boris majorityDougSeal said:
There is no evidence whatsoever to suggest the Conservatives can win a working majority under Boris. None. I mean I hope he does call an election so we can get rid of the party that has caused this mess, and I don’t want to interrupt an enemy when he’s making a mistake, but if I were you I would be careful what you wish for.HYUFD said:
Boris will win a majority then sideline the Baker and Francois ERG hardliners just as he will sideline the DUP to deliver a FTA for GBOblitusSumMe said:
Yes, but he's now promising the ERG that they can exit without a deal if they vote against any deal he offers them. So why would they support him on anything other than no deal?HYUFD said:
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, duhDougSeal said:
How? What’s his plan? How’s he going to get an FTA without a withdrawal agreement? How is “belief” going to achieve anything? Do you believe in faith healing as well? That works on the same principles,HYUFD said:
Whinge, whinge, whinge from the diehard Remainers.Scott_P said:
Meanwhile Boris actually believes in Brexit and will get on with delivering it and the FTA for GB most voters want
Now, to paraphrase Governor Tarkin, I grow tired of saying this, so I will say this only once, but there is no “Brexit a majority of voters voted for”. That’s the problem with this catastrophe. No one had an idea of a destination after leaving. I want to go to EFTA but apparently that is not “real” Brexit so, reluctantly, I now back remain.0 -
Any more recent ones?HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20Philip_Thompson said:
Where's a poll showing an overall majority pre-Brexit with BXP standing and Remainers tactically voting against?HYUFD said:
No it isn't at all, that is polling if we have not left the EU in October NOT polling before October on a platform of leaving the EU Deal or No Deal and requesting a majority to deliver Brexit.Foxy said:
Delusional on both counts!HYUFD said:
Boris will win a majority by October, then the WA will passFoxy said:
So in order to meet the October deadline will he whip through the WA more effectively than May? If not it is No Deal and no FTA.HYUFD said:
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, duhDougSeal said:
How? What’s his plan? How’s he going to get an FTA without a withdrawal agreement? How is “belief” going to achieve anything? Do you believe in faith healing as well? That works on the same principles,HYUFD said:
Whinge, whinge, whinge from the diehard Remainers.Scott_P said:
Meanwhile Boris actually believes in Brexit and will get on with delivering it and the FTA for GB most voters want
This is the polling for an October election before Brexit.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1144622315050872833?s=19
So wrong0 -
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I really hope Boris does take us to No Deal. Originally I wanted an FTA, but with the behaviour of the EU, the Republic and the absurd warnings of Remain I quite fancy No Deal for the massive laugh it'll give us all on the 31st October when the sky doesn't fall in, and the sun rises on that cold November morning.
A bit like June 23rd 2016.1 -
Duplicated0
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Am I the only one unable to see comments before 7pm on this thread ?0
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For the record I stood in Brickhill Ward in Bedford,which is a safe LD stronghold.My own MP in NE Bedfordshire is Alistair Burt, who is an excellent MP an a personal friend. I will vote Conservative at the next election if he is the candidate, voting for the individual not the party. I will not vote Conservative ifhe chooses not to stand. I think, Mr Thompson, that you might retract your commentsPhilip_Thompson said:
OK Mr anonymous person writing on the internet, that seems like a perfectly normal thing for a former candidate to write and not at all something somebody who always hated the Tories would write ...franklyn said:I write as a former Conservative Party member and onetime candidate (in an unwinnable council seat where a candidate was needed to make up the numbers). The choice between Hunt and Johnson is like a choice between anthrax and leprosy. Personally I favour johnsson, purely because he will rapidly lead to the destruction of the Tory party, which is what it deserves, and then just possibly some realignment of the centre ground
0 -
So. Not in London. Nor in ex-mining constituencies. Bearing in mind the Tories need to keep every seat across the South and Scotland, and add at least 10 more.
Where is this hard Brexit Boris majority coming from? Which constituencies exactly?
Bear in mind, the super marginal target seat of Peterborough saw them go from second to third.0 -
-
Mexicanpete said:kjohnw said:DougSeal said:
If you look at the vote distribution for the Brexit Party at the Euros under FPTP they would have cleaned up as remain voters are concentrated in London and Scotland etc so under fptp the leave vote is more efficient than remain , so if Boris goes on the main concern of leavers ie getting Brexit delivered he will clean up . At the EU referendum the vast majority of constituencies voted leave as a majority, this hasn’t significantly changed , this he will get his majorityHYUFD said:
Source?DougSeal said:
Boris will smash Corbyn . He is the best shot the tories have to defeat Farage as well. Under FPTP if he goes on a ticket of deal/ no deal by 31/10 he will clean upHYUFD said:
It was the outliers correct in 2015 and 2017Philip_Thompson said:
A bit of an outlier given subsequent polling don’t you think?HYUFD said:
No it isn't at all, that is polling if we have not left the EU in October NOT polling before October on a platform of leaving the EU Deal or No Deal and requesting a majority to deliver Brexit.Foxy said:
Delusional on both counts!HYUFD said:
Boris will win a majority by October, then the WA will passFoxy said:
So in order to meet the October deadline will he whip through the WA more effectively than May? If not it is No Deal and no FTA.HYUFD said:
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, duhDougSeal said:
How? What’s his plan? How’s he going to get an FTA without a withdrawal agreement? How is “belief” going to achieve anything? Do you believe in faith healing as well? That works on the same principles,HYUFD said:
Whinge, whinge, whinge from the diehard Remainers.Scott_P said:
Meanwhile Boris actually believes in Brexit and will get on with delivering it and the FTA for GB most voters want
This is the polling for an October election before Brexit.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1144622315050872833?s=19
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=200 -
Literally none of that is true. YouGov found there would be no difference in Tory vote share if Johnson or Hunt we’re prime minister, whether or not we left on 31/10. Boris won London by pretending to be a liberal. Who says he really believes in the things he says he does. The number of people who believe in him any more is dwindling. You appear to be one of them. The “liberal left” as you put it is an Americanism that has precious littleHYUFD said:
Yougov has Hunt well ahead of Boris with LD, Labour and Remain voters most of whom would not actually vote Tory even if Hunt was leader.DougSeal said:HYUFD said:
It was the outliers correct in 2015 and 2017DougSeal said:
A bit of an outlier given subsequent polling don’t you think?HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20Philip_Thompson said:
Where's a poll showing an overall majority pre-Brexit with BXP standing and Remainers tactically voting against?HYUFD said:
No it isn't at all, that is polling if we have not lengFoxy said:
Delusional on both counts!HYUFD said:
Boris will win a majority by October, then the WA will passFoxy said:
So in order to meet the October deadline will he whip through the WA more effectively than May? If not it is No Deal and no FTA.HYUFD said:
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, duhDougSeal said:
This is the polling for an October election before Brexit.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1144622315050872833?s=19
Yougov also has Boris ahead of Hunt with Tory, Brexit Party and Leave voters who are actually quite likely to vote Tory if Boris was leader.
Boris would be the most charismatic Tory leader since Thatcher and like Thatcher actually believes in conservative principles and national sovereignty, the liberal left may despise him but they despised Thatcher too. That did not stop her winning0 -
Source?
If you look at the vote distribution for the Brexit Party at the Euros under FPTP they would have cleaned up as remain voters are concentrated in London and Scotland etc so under fptp the leave vote is more efficient than remain , so if Boris goes on the main concern of leavers ie getting Brexit delivered he will clean up . At the EU referendum the vast majority of constituencies voted leave as a majority, this hasn’t significantly changed , this he will get his majority0 -
Those questioning whether Boris could win a majority are right to - there's no guarantee he could save those London seats and gain in the north at the same time. That said, if you don't think Boris could win a majority: what on earth would make you think Jeremy Hunt could do so?
Remember, the 42% in 2017 was a Tory-Ukip Coalition.0 -
No difference only if we Brexit in October (if we do not the Brexit Party clean up regardless) but to Brexit the Tories need a majority as the current hung parliament refuses to deliver it and as Comres shows as I posted below only Boris can deliver a majority before October to get that mandate to deliver Brexit Deal or No DealDougSeal said:
Literally none of that is true. YouGov found there would be no difference in Tory vote share if Johnson or Hunt we’re prime minister, whether or not we left on 31/10. Boris won London by pretending to be a liberal. Who says he really believes in the things he says he does. The number of people who believe in him any more is dwindling. You appear to be one of them. The “liberal left” as you put it is an Americanism that has precious littleHYUFD said:
Yougov has Hunt well ahead of Boris with LD, Labour and Remain voters most of whom t stop her winningDougSeal said:HYUFD said:
It was the outliers correct in 2015 and 2017DougSeal said:
A bit of an outlier given subsequent polling don’t you think?HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464?s=20Philip_Thompson said:
Where's a poll showing an overall majority pre-Brexit with BXP standing and Remainers tactically voting against?HYUFD said:
No it isn't at all, that is polling if we have not lengFoxy said:
Delusional on both counts!HYUFD said:
Boris will win a majority by October, then the WA will passFoxy said:
So in order to meet the October deadline will he whip through the WA more effectively than May? If not it is No Deal and no FTA.HYUFD said:
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, duhDougSeal said:
This is the polling for an October election before Brexit.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1144622315050872833?s=190 -
The thread header is deliberately confususing by Mike I feel. It mentions all the pro-remain parties but I take it labour isn’t standing down.
Sorry, I haven’t had a chance to read the comments - my heads been at glasto0 -
So basically you are using HYUFD's Yougov from a couple of weeks ago that gives Johnson a 140 seat majority too? Fair enough.kjohnw said:Source?
If you look at the vote distribution for the Brexit Party at the Euros under FPTP they would have cleaned up as remain voters are concentrated in London and Scotland etc so under fptp the leave vote is more efficient than remain , so if Boris goes on the main concern of leavers ie getting Brexit delivered he will clean up . At the EU referendum the vast majority of constituencies voted leave as a majority, this hasn’t significantly changed , this he will get his majority0 -
0
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Boris cuts back the Brexit Party which is already falling in the polls to the Tories benefit, Peterborough was when the Brexit Party was at its height and I would expect a Boris led Tory Party to win it back.dixiedean said:So. Not in London. Nor in ex-mining constituencies. Bearing in mind the Tories need to keep every seat across the South and Scotland, and add at least 10 more.
Where is this hard Brexit Boris majority coming from? Which constituencies exactly?
Bear in mind, the super marginal target seat of Peterborough saw them go from second to third.
Barrow, Canterbury, Vale of Clwyd, Ipswich, Stockton South, Dagenham, Dudley North, Bishop Auckland, Gower, Blackpool South, Darlington, Lincoln, the remaining Stoke seats, Wolverhampton South West, Plymouth, Carlisle etc are just some of the Labour Leave seats and areas a Boris led Tory Party could gain on a clear commitment to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal0 -
rottenborough said:
0 -
No, read YouGov poll, the figures are 20% for Johnson and 21% for Hunt if we have not left at the point of the election - there’s no timeline on it. And the conclusion YouGov reach is -HYUFD said:
Boris cuts back the Brexit Party which is already falling in the polls to the Tories benefit, Peterborough was when the Brexit Party was at its height and I would expect a Boris led Tory Party to win it back.dixiedean said:So. Not in London. Nor in ex-mining constituencies. Bearing in mind the Tories need to keep every seat across the South and Scotland, and add at least 10 more.
Where is this hard Brexit Boris majority coming from? Which constituencies exactly?
Bear in mind, the super marginal target seat of Peterborough saw them go from second to third.
Barrow, Canterbury, Vale of Clwyd, Dagenham, Dudley North, Bishop Auckland, Gower, Blackpool South, Darlington, Lincoln, the remaining Stoke seats, Wolverhampton South West, Plymouth, Carlisle etc are just some of the Labour Leave seats and areas a Boris led Tory Party could gain on a clear commitment to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal
“If the Conservatives are looking towards Boris Johnson as a magic election winner, the evidence is simply no longer there. A decade ago he had a reputation as the Tory who could reach voters other Tories could not, and significantly outperformed his party in the 2012 mayoral election. However our latest polling does not suggest he offers any innate electoral advantage over Jeremy Hunt.”0 -
Nope, the figures are if we have left in October and then the next question is if we have not left.DougSeal said:
No, read YouGov poll, the figures are 20% for Johnson and 21% for Hunt if we have not left at the point of the election - there’s no timeline on it. And the conclusion YouGov reach is -HYUFD said:
Boris cuts back the Brexit Party which is already falling in the polls to the Tories benefit, Peterborough was when the Brexit Party was at its height and I would expect a Boris led Tory Party to win it back.dixiedean said:So. Not in London. Nor in ex-mining constituencies. Bearing in mind the Tories need to keep every seat across the South and Scotland, and add at least 10 more.
Where is this hard Brexit Boris majority coming from? Which constituencies exactly?
Bear in mind, the super marginal target seat of Peterborough saw them go from second to third.
Barrow, Canterbury, Vale of Clwyd, Dagenham, Dudley North, Bishop Auckland, Gower, Blackpool South, Darlington, Lincoln, the remaining Stoke seats, Wolverhampton South West, Plymouth, Carlisle etc are just some of the Labour Leave seats and areas a Boris led Tory Party could gain on a clear commitment to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal
“If the Conservatives are looking towards Boris Johnson as a magic election winner, the evidence is simply no longer there. A decade ago he had a reputation as the Tory who could reach voters other Tories could not, and significantly outperformed his party in the 2012 mayoral election. However our latest polling does not suggest he offers any innate electoral advantage over Jeremy Hunt.”
Only Boris is committed to leaving Deal or No Deal in October, Hunt is committed to further extension and as Yougov shows without commitment to the former the Tories are slaughtered by the Brexit Party0 -
Even so, the written conclusion YouGov reach is pretty stark. You rely on the ComRes poll and this poll says there is no significant difference between either. Put bluntly there is evidence to suggest the ComRes you rely on is wrong. I am not going to rely on one poll and I would suggest you don’t either.HYUFD said:
Nope, the figures are if we have left in October and then the next question if we have not left.DougSeal said:
No, read YouGov poll, the figures are 20% for Johnson and 21% for Hunt if we have not left at the point of the election - there’s no timeline on it. And the conclusion YouGov reach is -HYUFD said:
Boris cuts back the Brexit Party which is already falling in the polls to the Tories benefit, Peterborough was when the Brexit Party was at its height and I would expect a Boris led Tory Party to win it back.dixiedean said:So. Not in London. Nor in ex-mining constituencies. Bearing in mind the Tories need to keep every seat across the South and Scotland, and add at least 10 more.
Where is this hard Brexit Boris majority coming from? Which constituencies exactly?
Bear in mind, the super marginal target seat of Peterborough saw them go from second to third.
Barrow, Canterbury, Vale of Clwyd, Dagenham, Dudley North, Bishop Auckland, Gower, Blackpool South, Darlington, Lincoln, the remaining Stoke seats, Wolverhampton South West, Plymouth, Carlisle etc are just some of the Labour Leave seats and areas a Boris led Tory Party could gain on a clear commitment to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal
“If the Conservatives are looking towards Boris Johnson as a magic election winner, the evidence is simply no longer there. A decade ago he had a reputation as the Tory who could reach voters other Tories could not, and significantly outperformed his party in the 2012 mayoral election. However our latest polling does not suggest he offers any innate electoral advantage over Jeremy Hunt.”
Only Boris is committed to leaving Deal or No Deal in October0 -
del0
-
-
It doesn’t matter. If he calls an election he won’t have any say in any event. I seriously think he might lose his seat.HYUFD said:0 -
I will rely on the only candidate committed to deliver Brexit in October, Deal or No Deal, Boris thank you very much who I will be voting for when my ballot paper arrives next week.DougSeal said:
Even if you’re right, and I don’t think you are, the written conclusion YouGov reach is pretty stark. You rely on the ComRes poll and this poll says there is no significant difference between either. Put bluntly there is evidence to suggest the ComRes you rely on is wrong. I am not going to rely on one poll and I would suggest you don’t either.HYUFD said:
Nope, the figures are if we have left in October and then the next question if we have not left.DougSeal said:
No, read YouGov poll, the figures are 20% for Johnson and 21% for Hunt if we have not left at the point of the election - there’s no timeline on it. And the conclusion YouGov reach is -HYUFD said:
Boris cuts back the Brexit Party which is already falling in the polls to the Tories benefit, Peterborough was when the Brexit Party was at its height and I would expect a Boris led Tory Party to win it back.dixiedean said:So. Not in London. Nor in ex-mining constituencies. Bearing in mind the Tories need to keep every seat across the South and Scotland, and add at least 10 more.
Where is this hard Brexit Boris majority coming from? Which constituencies exactly?
Bear in mind, the super marginal target seat of Peterborough saw them go from second to third.
Barrow, Canterbury, Vale of Clwyd, Dagenham, Dudley North, Bishop Auckland, Gower, Blackpool South, Darlington, Lincoln, the remaining Stoke seats, Wolverhampton South West, Plymouth, Carlisle etc are just some of the Labour Leave seats and areas a Boris led Tory Party could gain on a clear commitment to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal
“If the Conservatives are looking towards Boris Johnson as a magic election winner, the evidence is simply no longer there. A decade ago he had a reputation as the Tory who could reach voters other Tories could not, and significantly outperformed his party in the 2012 mayoral election. However our latest polling does not suggest he offers any innate electoral advantage over Jeremy Hunt.”
Only Boris is committed to leaving Deal or No Deal in October
Without that commitment to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal in October the Tories have no chance of either a majority or delivering Brexit.
Goodnight
0 -
Your party’s funeral.HYUFD said:
I will rely on the only candidate committed to deliver Brexit in October, Deal or No Deal, Boris thank you very much who I will be voting for when my ballot paper arrives next week.DougSeal said:
Even if you’re right, and I don’t think you are, the written conclusion YouGov reach is pretty stark. You rely on the ComRes poll and this poll says there is no significant difference between either. Put bluntly there is evidence to suggest the ComRes you rely on is wrong. I am not going to rely on one poll and I would suggest you don’t either.HYUFD said:
Nope, the figures are if we have left in October and then the next question if we have not left.DougSeal said:
No, read YouGov poll, the figures are 20% for Johnson and 21% for Hunt if we have not left at the point of the election - there’s no timeline on it. And the conclusion YouGov reach is -HYUFD said:
Boris cuts back the Brexit Party which is already falling in the polls to the Tories benefit, Peterborough was when the Brexit Party was at its height and I would expect a Boris led Tory Party to win it back.dixiedean said:So. Not in London. Nor in ex-mining constituencies. Bearing in mind the Tories need to keep every seat across the South and Scotland, and add at least 10 more.
Where is this hard Brexit Boris majority coming from? Which constituencies exactly?
Bear in mind, the super marginal target seat of Peterborough saw them go from second to third.
Barrow, Canterbury, Vale of Clwyd, Dagenham, Dudley North, Bishop Auckland, Gower, Blackpool South, Darlington, Lincoln, the remaining Stoke seats, Wolverhampton South West, Plymouth, Carlisle etc are just some of the Labour Leave seats and areas a Boris led Tory Party could gain on a clear commitment to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal
“If the Conservatives are looking towards Boris Johnson as a magic election winner, the evidence is simply no longer there. A decade ago he had a reputation as the Tory who could reach voters other Tories could not, and significantly outperformed his party in the 2012 mayoral election. However our latest polling does not suggest he offers any innate electoral advantage over Jeremy Hunt.”
Only Boris is committed to leaving Deal or No Deal in October
Without that commitment to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal in October the Tories have no chance of either a majority or delivering Brexit.
Goodnight0 -
The current view among most Labour people that I know is that they'd prefer Boris as an opponent. They don't dispute that he'll get a good bounce, and previously they've felt he was dangerous. But they expect him to blow up at some point before the next election.HYUFD said:
Yougov has Hunt well ahead of Boris with LD, Labour and Remain voters most of whom would not actually vote Tory even if Hunt was leader.
Yougov also has Boris ahead of Hunt with Tory, Brexit Party and Leave voters who are actually quite likely to vote Tory if Boris was leader.
Boris would be the most charismatic Tory leader since Thatcher and like Thatcher actually believes in conservative principles and national sovereignty, the liberal left may despise him but they despised Thatcher too. That did not stop her winning
But they're no more soothsayers than anyone else. Who knows?0 -
Johnson sounding more like Trump tweet by tweet.HYUFD said:0 -
WASHINGTON — Senator Kamala Harris of California raised $2 million online in the first 24 hours following the start of Thursday’s presidential primary debate, a total that suggests her performance resonated with many Democratic donors.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/29/us/politics/kamala-harris-fundraising-2020.html0 -
Harris is now clear fav. Time to lay?0
-
Having seen the so-called 'killer' section from the debate, I must clearly be missing something. I can't see her leadership potential. Others obviously feel differently, but I can't see her as a national head of government.rottenborough said:Harris is now clear fav. Time to lay?
She needs more than 1 short win in a very artificial debate format to be a real frontrunner0 -
True, I seem to remember Tory members saying the Labour leader they most feared in 2015 was Liz Kendall and how Corbyn would offer them great prospects at the next general electionNickPalmer said:
The current view among most Labour people that I know is that they'd prefer Boris as an opponent. They don't dispute that he'll get a good bounce, and previously they've felt he was dangerous. But they expect him to blow up at some point before the next election.HYUFD said:
Yougov has Hunt well ahead of Boris with LD, Labour and Remain voters most of whom would not actually vote Tory even if Hunt was leader.
Yougov also has Boris ahead of Hunt with Tory, Brexit Party and Leave voters who are actually quite likely to vote Tory if Boris was leader.
Boris would be the most charismatic Tory leader since Thatcher and like Thatcher actually believes in conservative principles and national sovereignty, the liberal left may despise him but they despised Thatcher too. That did not stop her winning
But they're no more soothsayers than anyone else. Who knows?0 -
Jeremy Corbyn facing claims his drive for power was dominated by tiny Left-wing clique dubbed the '4Ms' who exert Stalinist control over their leaders office
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7196419/Corbyn-facing-claims-drive-power-dominated-tiny-Left-wing-clique-dubbed-4Ms.html0 -
No my party's revival, diehard Remainers funeralDougSeal said:
Your party’s funeral.HYUFD said:
I will rely on the only candidate committed to deliver Brexit in October, Deal or No Deal, Boris thank you very much who I will be voting for when my ballot paper arrives next week.DougSeal said:
Even if you’re right, and I don’t think you are, the written conclusion YouGov reach is pretty stark. You rely on the ComRes poll and this poll says there is no significant difference between either. Put bluntly there is evidence to suggest the ComRes you rely on is wrong. I am not going to rely on one poll and I would suggest you don’t either.HYUFD said:
Nope, the figures are if we have left in October and then the next question if we have not left.DougSeal said:
No, read YouGov poll, the figures are 20% for Johnson and 21% for Hunt if we have not left at the point of the election - there’s no timeline on it. And the conclusion YouGov reach is -HYUFD said:
Boris cuts back the Brexit Party which is already falling in the polls to the Tories benefit, Peterborough was when the Brexit Party was at its height and I would expect a Boris led Tory Party to win it back.dixiedean said:So. Not in London. Nor in ex-mining constituencies. Bearing in mind the Tories need to keep every seat across the South and Scotland, and add at least 10 more.
Where is this hard Brexit Boris majority coming from? Which constituencies exactly?
Bear in mind, the super marginal target seat of Peterborough saw them go from second to third.
Barrow, Canterbury, Vale of Clwyd, Dagenham, Dudley North, Bishop Auckland, Gower, Blackpool South, Darlington, Lincoln, the remaining Stoke seats, Wolverhampton South West, Plymouth, Carlisle etc are just some of the Labour Leave seats and areas a Boris led Tory Party could gain on a clear commitment to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal
“If the Conservatives are looking towards Boris Johnson as a magic election winner, the evidence is simply no longer there. A decade ago he had a reputation as the Tory who could reach voters other Tories could not, and significantly outperformed his party in the 2012 mayoral election. However our latest polling does not suggest he offers any innate electoral advantage over Jeremy Hunt.”
Only Boris is committed to leaving Deal or No Deal in October
Without that commitment to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal in October the Tories have no chance of either a majority or delivering Brexit.
Goodnight1 -
You re saying we ve reached peak Harris??rottenborough said:Harris is now clear fav. Time to lay?
As I stated yesterday I hate laying and have a low bankroll.
As for NPxMp’s lab4boris I am choosing to ignore but the market says your lab mates are in luck0 -
If you are planning to lay every favourite, and presumably have already laid early leader Joe Biden, then yes. The Iowa Caucuses, which kick off the primaries, are still eight months away!rottenborough said:Harris is now clear fav. Time to lay?
0 -
Wot, no bones?rottenborough said:
I thought the killers were looking rather like they’ve swapped Aunt Hazel for Nutella, rather old, balding and LARGE, but then they wheeled out the Pet Shop Boys who looked positively embalmed, by comparison the Killers were looking young again.
Flowers tapped his inner Springsteen here, after a shaky start they carried it off okay.0 -
You’re living in Spain, right?Viceroy_of_Orange said:I really hope Boris does take us to No Deal. Originally I wanted an FTA, but with the behaviour of the EU, the Republic and the absurd warnings of Remain I quite fancy No Deal for the massive laugh it'll give us all on the 31st October when the sky doesn't fall in, and the sun rises on that cold November morning.
A bit like June 23rd 2016.0 -
Has the Mail been asleep for the last four years? Seriously? Next they'll be telling us that Lynton Crosby has been advising Boris, and that Lord Lucan has disappeared. Perhaps they read pb and wondered what the cryptic references to Seamus "clarifying" Corbyn's Brexit statements were about.rottenborough said:Jeremy Corbyn facing claims his drive for power was dominated by tiny Left-wing clique dubbed the '4Ms' who exert Stalinist control over their leaders office
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7196419/Corbyn-facing-claims-drive-power-dominated-tiny-Left-wing-clique-dubbed-4Ms.html0 -
Yes, as Harris still trails Biden and Sanders after last week's debates with Warren not far behind her eitherrottenborough said:Harris is now clear fav. Time to lay?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-poll/0 -
That's why it would probably be best for Boris to call an election as soon as possible, from his point of view — before he has time to make any mistakes.NickPalmer said:
The current view among most Labour people that I know is that they'd prefer Boris as an opponent. They don't dispute that he'll get a good bounce, and previously they've felt he was dangerous. But they expect him to blow up at some point before the next election.HYUFD said:
Yougov has Hunt well ahead of Boris with LD, Labour and Remain voters most of whom would not actually vote Tory even if Hunt was leader.
Yougov also has Boris ahead of Hunt with Tory, Brexit Party and Leave voters who are actually quite likely to vote Tory if Boris was leader.
Boris would be the most charismatic Tory leader since Thatcher and like Thatcher actually believes in conservative principles and national sovereignty, the liberal left may despise him but they despised Thatcher too. That did not stop her winning
But they're no more soothsayers than anyone else. Who knows?0 -
You have to ask why now? Me thinks there are moves afoot to replace Uncle Ho.DecrepitJohnL said:
Has the Mail been asleep for the last four years? Seriously? Next they'll be telling us that Lynton Crosby has been advising Boris, and that Lord Lucan has disappeared. Perhaps they read pb and wondered what the cryptic references to Seamus "clarifying" Corbyn's Brexit statements were about.rottenborough said:Jeremy Corbyn facing claims his drive for power was dominated by tiny Left-wing clique dubbed the '4Ms' who exert Stalinist control over their leaders office
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7196419/Corbyn-facing-claims-drive-power-dominated-tiny-Left-wing-clique-dubbed-4Ms.html
0 -
To be fair, a better election campaign would have delivered a very different result. If you screw things up to that extent, you deserve to let your opponent massively exceed expectations.HYUFD said:
True, I seem to remember Tory members saying the Labour leader they most feared in 2015 was Liz Kendall and how Corbyn would offer them great prospects at the next general electionNickPalmer said:
The current view among most Labour people that I know is that they'd prefer Boris as an opponent. They don't dispute that he'll get a good bounce, and previously they've felt he was dangerous. But they expect him to blow up at some point before the next election.HYUFD said:
Yougov has Hunt well ahead of Boris with LD, Labour and Remain voters most of whom would not actually vote Tory even if Hunt was leader.
Yougov also has Boris ahead of Hunt with Tory, Brexit Party and Leave voters who are actually quite likely to vote Tory if Boris was leader.
Boris would be the most charismatic Tory leader since Thatcher and like Thatcher actually believes in conservative principles and national sovereignty, the liberal left may despise him but they despised Thatcher too. That did not stop her winning
But they're no more soothsayers than anyone else. Who knows?0 -
Great. Bring it on.AndyJS said:
That's why it would probably be best for Boris to call an election as soon as possible, from his point of view — before he has time to make any mistakes.NickPalmer said:
The current view among most Labour people that I know is that they'd prefer Boris as an opponent. They don't dispute that he'll get a good bounce, and previously they've felt he was dangerous. But they expect him to blow up at some point before the next election.HYUFD said:
Yougov has Hunt well ahead of Boris with LD, Labour and Remain voters most of whom would not actually vote Tory even if Hunt was leader.
Yougov also has Boris ahead of Hunt with Tory, Brexit Party and Leave voters who are actually quite likely to vote Tory if Boris was leader.
Boris would be the most charismatic Tory leader since Thatcher and like Thatcher actually believes in conservative principles and national sovereignty, the liberal left may despise him but they despised Thatcher too. That did not stop her winning
But they're no more soothsayers than anyone else. Who knows?0 -
Brexit c 20rottenborough said:
Great. Bring it on.AndyJS said:
That's why it would probably be best for Boris to call an election as soon as possible, from his point of view — before he has time to make any mistakes.NickPalmer said:
The current view among most Labour people that I know is that they'd prefer Boris as an opponent. They don't dispute that he'll get a good bounce, and previously they've felt he was dangerous. But they expect him to blow up at some point before the next election.HYUFD said:
Yougov has Hunt well ahead of Boris with LD, Labour and Remain voters most of whom would not actually vote Tory even if Hunt was leader.
Yougov also has Boris ahead of Hunt with Tory, Brexit Party and Leave voters who are actually quite likely to vote Tory if Boris was leader.
Boris would be the most charismatic Tory leader since Thatcher and like Thatcher actually believes in conservative principles and national sovereignty, the liberal left may despise him but they despised Thatcher too. That did not stop her winning
But they're no more soothsayers than anyone else. Who knows?
Lab c 20
Con c 20
LD c 20
Sounds like fun
0 -
Blimey. How old are you? Brandon is 38. That's young in my world.Zephyr said:
Wot, no bones?rottenborough said:
I thought the killers were looking rather like they’ve swapped Aunt Hazel for Nutella, rather old, balding and LARGE, but then they wheeled out the Pet Shop Boys who looked positively embalmed, by comparison the Killers were looking young again.
Flowers tapped his inner Springsteen here, after a shaky start they carried it off okay.0 -
Not sure we are peak Harris. But we may be for a while. Lay and then back during next down turn?JBriskinindyref2 said:
You re saying we ve reached peak Harris??rottenborough said:Harris is now clear fav. Time to lay?
As I stated yesterday I hate laying and have a low bankroll.
As for NPxMp’s lab4boris I am choosing to ignore but the market says your lab mates are in luck0 -
Context is the word. For the Drugs offence but particularly sex offence.Sandpit said:
You won’t find argument with me about drug laws. Drug laws work in Portugal, Amsterdam and Colorado. Drug laws also work in Bangkok, Dubai and Singapore. Drug laws don’t work in most of Europe and most of the US, who need to decide whether to legalise drugs or enforce strict laws against them.Zephyr said:
Absolutely. I agree there is no greater crime than hypocrisy, except maybe the refusal to uphold values because one may oneself have fallen short of them. Is this epidemic of knife crime fuelled by demand for cocaine as police chiefs ask us to believe disputed anymore? Or that as conservative politicians ask us to believe, middle-class professionals push to liberalise drugs laws to deal with their own guilt over taking drugs? We agree Onasanya’s crime and hypocrisy is right at the top of the list, but why don’t you have a politician telling us drug laws are there for a reason, publicly legislating to that whilst privately floating those laws, at the top of the list alongside Onasanya?Sandpit said:
Onasanya’s crime was right at the top of the offences for which an MP should be recalled - she was found guilty of an offence against the rule of law itself.Zephyr said:
Exactly. But is it not a worse crime than something someone is recalled for? So where’s the evenhandedness?Philip_Thompson said:
For example. Would photographing or procuring photographs of a newly turned sixteen year old girl topless and then publishing them be a recall offence? Or How about showing the todger to under aged children?
The first would actually be necessary part of the job description working in certain parts of media 35 years ago, the second is participation in any naked bike ride to demonstrate the vulnerability of cyclists on the road.
Um... https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/burton/michael-fabricant-naked-cycling-charity-21420090 -
Yes, quite possibly. Or it might just be the usual suspects wish there were! And of course, Jeremy Corbyn himself is said not to enjoy the job. How all this interacts with rumours of a general election this year is anyone's guess. But taken with the Times stories about Corbyn's health being a topic of the utmost concern in the Civil Service typing pool (ask your mum!) and it makes you wonder.rottenborough said:
You have to ask why now? Me thinks there are moves afoot to replace Uncle Ho.DecrepitJohnL said:
Has the Mail been asleep for the last four years? Seriously? Next they'll be telling us that Lynton Crosby has been advising Boris, and that Lord Lucan has disappeared. Perhaps they read pb and wondered what the cryptic references to Seamus "clarifying" Corbyn's Brexit statements were about.rottenborough said:Jeremy Corbyn facing claims his drive for power was dominated by tiny Left-wing clique dubbed the '4Ms' who exert Stalinist control over their leaders office
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7196419/Corbyn-facing-claims-drive-power-dominated-tiny-Left-wing-clique-dubbed-4Ms.html0 -
As someone has stated the first primaries are 8 months away so that’s a long time to keep money locked up.rottenborough said:
Not sure we are peak Harris. But we may be for a while. Lay and then back during next down turn?JBriskinindyref2 said:
You re saying we ve reached peak Harris??rottenborough said:Harris is now clear fav. Time to lay?
As I stated yesterday I hate laying and have a low bankroll.
As for NPxMp’s lab4boris I am choosing to ignore but the market says your lab mates are in luck
I think it’s worthy of note that mike s thread was about backing Harris and we ve all managed to translate that into laying0 -
The same Labour people who believe that Jeremy Corbyn is a fit person to lead Labour?NickPalmer said:...The current view among most Labour people that I know is that they'd prefer Boris as an opponent...
0 -
Serious question - not sure this has been discussed on here yet.
Reports yesterday of Boris doing a pre Brexit emergency budget in September to get ready for a No Deal Brexit.
Now it's perfectly possible he might do this, but if he does it would completely rule out the possibility of going for a GE before 31 October.
So what is he more likely to do? If he thinks a Budget is required pre No Deal then it seems to me he has no choice - he can't call a GE. He can do his Budget but he's then at the mercy of Parliament blocking No Deal.
Maybe he thinks he'll let Parliament block No Deal and then say "Look what Lab/LD have done, we now must have a GE to give me the numbers to deliver" - albeit that the GE could then only be in Nov (or even early Dec depending upon when Parliament blocks No Deal).0 -
Seems a fair bet that Jezza would rather like a GE this year. Get it all over with etcDecrepitJohnL said:
Yes, quite possibly. Or it might just be the usual suspects wish there were! And of course, Jeremy Corbyn himself is said not to enjoy the job. How all this interacts with rumours of a general election this year is anyone's guess. But taken with the Times stories about Corbyn's health being a topic of the utmost concern in the Civil Service typing pool (ask your mum!) and it makes you wonder.rottenborough said:
You have to ask why now? Me thinks there are moves afoot to replace Uncle Ho.DecrepitJohnL said:
Has the Mail been asleep for the last four years? Seriously? Next they'll be telling us that Lynton Crosby has been advising Boris, and that Lord Lucan has disappeared. Perhaps they read pb and wondered what the cryptic references to Seamus "clarifying" Corbyn's Brexit statements were about.rottenborough said:Jeremy Corbyn facing claims his drive for power was dominated by tiny Left-wing clique dubbed the '4Ms' who exert Stalinist control over their leaders office
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7196419/Corbyn-facing-claims-drive-power-dominated-tiny-Left-wing-clique-dubbed-4Ms.html0 -
Carlisle is Tory-held!HYUFD said:
Boris cuts back the Brexit Party which is already falling in the polls to the Tories benefit, Peterborough was when the Brexit Party was at its height and I would expect a Boris led Tory Party to win it back.dixiedean said:So. Not in London. Nor in ex-mining constituencies. Bearing in mind the Tories need to keep every seat across the South and Scotland, and add at least 10 more.
Where is this hard Brexit Boris majority coming from? Which constituencies exactly?
Bear in mind, the super marginal target seat of Peterborough saw them go from second to third.
Barrow, Canterbury, Vale of Clwyd, Ipswich, Stockton South, Dagenham, Dudley North, Bishop Auckland, Gower, Blackpool South, Darlington, Lincoln, the remaining Stoke seats, Wolverhampton South West, Plymouth, Carlisle etc are just some of the Labour Leave seats and areas a Boris led Tory Party could gain on a clear commitment to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal0 -
When did Labour become a pro-Kremlin party?JBriskinindyref2 said:The thread header is deliberately confususing by Mike I feel. It mentions all the pro-remain parties but I take it labour isn’t standing down.
Sorry, I haven’t had a chance to read the comments - my heads been at glasto0 -
Awkward autocorrect. That was meant to be a pro-Remain party.Philip_Thompson said:
When did Labour become a pro-Kremlin party?JBriskinindyref2 said:The thread header is deliberately confususing by Mike I feel. It mentions all the pro-remain parties but I take it labour isn’t standing down.
Sorry, I haven’t had a chance to read the comments - my heads been at glasto0 -
Come for the cricket tips - stay for the post midnight banterPhilip_Thompson said:
When did Labour become a pro-Kremlin party?JBriskinindyref2 said:The thread header is deliberately confususing by Mike I feel. It mentions all the pro-remain parties but I take it labour isn’t standing down.
Sorry, I haven’t had a chance to read the comments - my heads been at glasto
0 -
Tbh I doubt that Boris has thought very hard at all about any of this and is simply relaying the views of whichever of his advisers last buttonholed him. In any case, Boris will not be the only player (assuming he wins). Even if Boris does not want a snap election, he might lose a Labour motion of no confidence, especially if he has spooked the DUP with what HYUFD tells us are his plans for Northern Ireland.MikeL said:Serious question - not sure this has been discussed on here yet.
Reports yesterday of Boris doing a pre Brexit emergency budget in September to get ready for a No Deal Brexit.
Now it's perfectly possible he might do this, but if he does it would completely rule out the possibility of going for a GE before 31 October.
So what is he more likely to do? If he thinks a Budget is required pre No Deal then it seems to me he has no choice - he can't call a GE. He can do his Budget but he's then at the mercy of Parliament blocking No Deal.
Maybe he thinks he'll let Parliament block No Deal and then say "Look what Lab/LD have done, we now must have a GE to give me the numbers to deliver" - albeit that the GE could then only be in Nov (or even early Dec depending upon when Parliament blocks No Deal).
The Conservative Party is deliberately stringing out the contest so the House goes into Summer recess almost as soon as Boris (or Hunt) becomes Prime Minister, to minimise the risk of a first day challenge, and I expect those eight weeks will be used to shore up support and develop viable plans.0 -
And?Charles said:
You’re living in Spain, right?Viceroy_of_Orange said:I really hope Boris does take us to No Deal. Originally I wanted an FTA, but with the behaviour of the EU, the Republic and the absurd warnings of Remain I quite fancy No Deal for the massive laugh it'll give us all on the 31st October when the sky doesn't fall in, and the sun rises on that cold November morning.
A bit like June 23rd 2016.
I was living in Britain and survived the 23rd June 2016.0 -
The Sunday Times has a reds under the bed plot involving an obscure MP helping the Kremlin.
MI5 has launched an investigation into a Russian lobbying campaign to infiltrate British politics that received advice and support from a senior Conservative MP.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/the-mp-the-russians-and-the-red-bus-plot-to-grab-oligarch-s-2bn-5j55057wd0 -
Because you have different incentives to everyone else: you get the same upside from laughing at the doomsayers if they are wrong but lower downside if they are right. That might colour your perspectives.Viceroy_of_Orange said:
And?Charles said:
You’re living in Spain, right?Viceroy_of_Orange said:I really hope Boris does take us to No Deal. Originally I wanted an FTA, but with the behaviour of the EU, the Republic and the absurd warnings of Remain I quite fancy No Deal for the massive laugh it'll give us all on the 31st October when the sky doesn't fall in, and the sun rises on that cold November morning.
A bit like June 23rd 2016.
I was living in Britain and survived the 23rd June 2016.
(FWIW I take the view that it won’t be as bad as the doomsayers claim)0 -
At the moment it is likely I will be back in Britain on the 31st October with no certain job. So I am hardly looking down upon this from an ivory tower. I really have zero fear from No Deal.Charles said:
Because you have different incentives to everyone else: you get the same upside from laughing at the doomsayers if they are wrong but lower downside if they are right. That might colour your perspectives.Viceroy_of_Orange said:
And?Charles said:
You’re living in Spain, right?Viceroy_of_Orange said:I really hope Boris does take us to No Deal. Originally I wanted an FTA, but with the behaviour of the EU, the Republic and the absurd warnings of Remain I quite fancy No Deal for the massive laugh it'll give us all on the 31st October when the sky doesn't fall in, and the sun rises on that cold November morning.
A bit like June 23rd 2016.
I was living in Britain and survived the 23rd June 2016.
(FWIW I take the view that it won’t be as bad as the doomsayers claim)0 -
I did used to like my times sub but the local shop shut down so no hard copy #austeritybritain0
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Fair enough. Go with your bad self thenViceroy_of_Orange said:
At the moment it is likely I will be back in Britain on the 31st October with no certain job. So I am hardly looking down upon this from an ivory tower. I really have zero fear from No Deal.Charles said:
Because you have different incentives to everyone else: you get the same upside from laughing at the doomsayers if they are wrong but lower downside if they are right. That might colour your perspectives.Viceroy_of_Orange said:
And?Charles said:
You’re living in Spain, right?Viceroy_of_Orange said:I really hope Boris does take us to No Deal. Originally I wanted an FTA, but with the behaviour of the EU, the Republic and the absurd warnings of Remain I quite fancy No Deal for the massive laugh it'll give us all on the 31st October when the sky doesn't fall in, and the sun rises on that cold November morning.
A bit like June 23rd 2016.
I was living in Britain and survived the 23rd June 2016.
(FWIW I take the view that it won’t be as bad as the doomsayers claim)0 -
But I ve got a spaanky sky sports sub now (for the F1).JBriskinindyref2 said:I did used to like my times sub but the local shop shut down so no hard copy #austeritybritain
I had an anti-tactical siesta for qualy but my (admittedly flaky) Gf informs that le cleric is on pole!
So, betting advice - avoid
Try to watch in the pub tho - should be good - cricket easier to overrule than footie depending where u are
0 -
Okay I ve checked the odds. I was thinking back the mercs?? Back le clerc?? Then the solution became clear - what of all the talk about laying recently. So I chucked my bankroll on laying max at 7.8JBriskinindyref2 said:
But I ve got a spaanky sky sports sub now (for the F1).JBriskinindyref2 said:I did used to like my times sub but the local shop shut down so no hard copy #austeritybritain
I had an anti-tactical siesta for qualy but my (admittedly flaky) Gf informs that le cleric is on pole!
So, betting advice - avoid
Try to watch in the pub tho - should be good - cricket easier to overrule than footie depending where u are
Should be fine0 -
8 months pregnant and stabbed to death in London. Trump is on to something, statistics be damned.1
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Oh dear I didn’t t realise Verstappen was starting second.
I feel like the guy in the anti-betting ad betting on some random South American match1 -
In other news, a car has just backfired a lot, I hope.MaxPB said:8 months pregnant and stabbed to death in London. Trump is on to something, statistics be damned.
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7/2 Hamilton is the bet, even though he is starting from another country. Bookies are divided on Max -- 4/1 Ladbrokes, 6/1 Hills and Betfair. Laying at 7.8 is brave.JBriskinindyref2 said:Oh dear I didn’t t realise Verstappen was starting second.
I feel like the guy in the anti-betting ad betting on some random South American match0 -
The Express: Kelly-Mary Fauvrelle, 26, died but her baby was delivered at the scene and is in critical condition.MaxPB said:8 months pregnant and stabbed to death in London. Trump is on to something, statistics be damned.
Prime Minister Theresa May has been fighting accusations that a funding squeeze on police as well as cuts in social services have contributed to a soaring incidence of knife crime.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1147077/newham-stabbing-east-london-crime-news-man-dead-police-bloodbath-knife0 -
#SweatingJBriskinindyref2 said:Oh dear I didn’t t realise Verstappen was starting second.
I feel like the guy in the anti-betting ad betting on some random South American match0 -
This is the first race in ages where several different drivers could win. Although obviously not Vettel. I think it’s between Leclerc and the Mercs, the silvers cars starting on a different strategy having qualified on the mediums. The high temperatures might mean those starting on the softs need two stops, or need to run a long stint on the slow hard tyres at a track where overtaking is easy. I might back a Mercedes 1-2 if the odds are 10 or more.DecrepitJohnL said:
7/2 Hamilton is the bet, even though he is starting from another country. Bookies are divided on Max -- 4/1 Ladbrokes, 6/1 Hills and Betfair. Laying at 7.8 is brave.JBriskinindyref2 said:Oh dear I didn’t t realise Verstappen was starting second.
I feel like the guy in the anti-betting ad betting on some random South American match0
This discussion has been closed.