I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning Leave voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around), in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid though and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
If I were the LibDem agent I would be taking some quotes out of that MP’s letter and using them again and again aimed at Labour voters.
I expect the LDs will squeeze some of the Labour vote but not all of it, especially the working class Leave bit of it.
I think the Tories could hold it by a few hundred as Labour held Peterborough, if they also get their vote out
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning Leave voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around), in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid though and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
If I were the LibDem agent I would be taking some quotes out of that MP’s letter and using them again and again aimed at Labour voters.
I expect the LDs will squeeze some of the Labour vote but not all of it, especially the working class Leave bit of it.
I think the Tories could hold it by a few hundred as Labour held Peterborough, if they also get their vote out
Labour had the wit to replace the criminal.
And replaced her by someone who liked anti Semitic posts, they still scraped home.
Davies has been a local vet and auctioneer and in 2017 got the highest Tory voteshare in Brecon and Radnor since the 1960s, I would not count him out yet
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.
And with the assumption that the Conservative and Unionist Party will be happy to throw NI under the bus to achieve it. “FTA for GB” is code for a border in the Irish Sea. It’s not happening.
Wrong, I have spoken to a number of Tory members on this and they would be fine with it on the whole, bar a few No Deal or Remain diehards.
It would not be throwing Northern Ireland voters under a bus either, they could decide on the backstop by referendum but given Remain won the vote in Northern Ireland not Leave and the DUP now represent only about a third of Northern Ireland voters now and as the European elections showed the Alliance Party and Sinn Fein represent the other two thirds it is pretty clear a majority of Northern Ireland voters would vote for the backstop and to reject a hard border with the Republic of Ireland
That’s an epic 88 word unpunctuated paragraph there.
Dancing on pinheads, rather than saying explicitly that you want to treat NI differently and put the border in the Irish Sea, may well generate the response that you suggest. But if anyone actually proposed it, vast numbers of Conservative and Unionist MPs will be voting against.
Oh, and needlessly antagonising the DUP guarantees an immediate general election, after which we’d better really hope we don’t need their support.
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
Getting rid of crooked politicians is central to the appeal of Brexit.
I voted Leave, but what would Brexit have ever done to get rid of crooked politicians? I don't remember it being a major part of any arguments.
It will remove a very large number of MEPs from national life. I'm sure we can think of a few frauds among them...
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.
And with the assumption that the Conservative and Unionist Party will be happy to throw NI under the bus to achieve it. “FTA for GB” is code for a border in the Irish Sea. It’s not happening.
Wrong, I have spoken to a number of Tory members on this and they would be fine with it on the whole, bar a few No Deal or Remain diehards.
It would not be throwing Northern Ireland voters under a bus either, they could decide on the backstop buld vote for the backstop and to reject a hard border with the Republic of Ireland
That’s an epic 88 word unpunctuated paragraph there.
Dancing on pinheads, rather than saying explicitly that you want to treat NI differently and put the border in the Irish Sea, may well generate the response that you suggest. But if anyone actually proposed it, vast numbers of Conservative and Unionist MPs will be voting against.
Oh, and needlessly antagonising the DUP guarantees an immediate general election, after which we’d better really hope we don’t need their support.
Nope, vast numbers of Tory MPs could not give a toss about what the DUP want, as long as GB leaves the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union that is all they care about and a FTA with the EU for GB does that.
If we go to No Deal and a hard border in Northern Ireland there is a very strong possibility that both leads to a Remain majority in GB and no Brexit at all and the end of the Union and a majority in Northern Ireland for reunification with the Republic.
However if you want to continue on that path fine, staying in government with the DUP is no longer viable, either we get a general election soon and a Tory majority government that can deliver a viable Brexit or better no Tory government at all now and let Labour and the LDs deal with it.
Last time I checked a comma was also a punctuation mark
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.
I'm sure that HYUFD can cherry pick some data to back up his assertion.
No need to cherry pick, in August 2016 soon after the referendum and the Leave win Yougov found that 50% of voters thought a Canada style Free Trade Agreement with the EU would be a good option for the UK, compared to 35% for a Norway style soft Brexit and staying in the EU and 32% for a No Deal hard Brexit
Clutching at straws with a 2016 opinion poll aren't you?
Particularly when there were other polls at the same time saying that Leave voters were 42% EFTA/EEA to 45% Clean break. That would indicate to me that once you bring Remain voters into the mix there was probably then and is probably now a clear majority for the softer Brexit as opposed to the FTA type deal. .
"A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats...."
Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?
I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.
I would have thought actually there's a non-trivial chance in that seat that many would vote Tory.
As long as at least one of them votes LD, and as long as more of them vote LD than Tory, the strategy will be successful.
And I would not have said either of those was a certainty.
Put it another way - if you don't vote Liberal Democrat in an ordinary election in a marginal seat they frequently win, why would you in a by-election?
"A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats...."
Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?
I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.
I would have thought actually there's a non-trivial chance in that seat that many would vote Tory.
As long as at least one of them votes LD, and as long as more of them vote LD than Tory, the strategy will be successful.
And I would not have said either of those was a certainty.
Put it another way - if you don't vote Liberal Democrat in an ordinary election in a marginal seat they frequently win, why would you in a by-election?
to get rid of a Tory who fiddled his expenses, but without having to worry about who will form a government? To send a message about how fed up you are with the antics of the two main parties? etc etc
"A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats...."
Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?
I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.
I would have thought actually there's a non-trivial chance in that seat that many would vote Tory.
As long as at least one of them votes LD, and as long as more of them vote LD than Tory, the strategy will be successful.
And I would not have said either of those was a certainty.
Put it another way - if you don't vote Liberal Democrat in an ordinary election in a marginal seat they frequently win, why would you in a by-election?
Now I think you're trolling.
No, I just used to live in Ystradgynlais and later Aberystwyth. Believe me, there is a very big gulf between Plaid and the Liberal Democrats in that part of Wales. Very often Plaid supporters are very right-wing. There is no guarantee their support would follow their leadership's endorsement.
In fact, given how cussed they are, I would have said Plaid supporters would be quite capable of voting Tory under these circumstances just to show their independence. That's doubly true as the Liberal Democrat candidate has at best limited links to the constituency. The Tory is local even if he's also a crook.
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?
Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.
But if he had been employed by my company he would have been fired for Gross Misconduct...
Well that is up to your company, it depends whether a court finds the dismissal reasonable or not
Theft is grounds for Gross Misconduct which can be cause for immediate dismissal.
I may be somewhat addled with the heat and being marginally past the first flush of youth but I find the path to a Conservative win at the Brecon and Radnor by-election tighter than @TheScreamingEagles trousers at a Bee Gees tribute night :
1. Government defending seat in mid-term 2. Conservatives polling around half their general election score 3. By-election caused by Tory naughty boy behaviour. 4. Naughty boy re-selected as Tory candidate. 5. Conservatives fishing in same pool as TBP and UKIP 6. Clear second place challenger - LibDem 7. LibDem polling around three times their general election score. 8. Clear second in Euro elections to TBP. Tories well down 9. LibDem candidate has reasonable profile as Welsh leader. 10. LibDem probably only remain candidate in 48% remain area.
I may be somewhat addled with the heat and being marginally past the first flush of youth but I find the path to a Conservative win at the Brecon and Radnor by-election tighter than @TheScreamingEagles trousers at a Bee Gees tribute night :
1. Government defending seat in mid-term 2. Conservatives polling around half their general election score 3. By-election caused by Tory naughty boy behaviour. 4. Naughty boy re-selected as Tory candidate. 5. Conservatives fishing in same pool as TBP and UKIP 6. Clear second place challenger - LibDem 7. LibDem polling around three times their general election score. 8. Clear second in Euro elections to TBP. Tories well down 9. LibDem candidate has reasonable profile as Welsh leader. 10. LibDem probably only remain candidate in 48% remain area.
Only problem is that realistically plenty of Remainers will vote for Labour.
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?
Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.
But if he had been employed by my company he would have been fired for Gross Misconduct...
Well that is up to your company, it depends whether a court finds the dismissal reasonable or not
Theft is grounds for Gross Misconduct which can be cause for immediate dismissal.
Yes. I think most companies would dismiss for deliberate expenses fraud, however minor. It would be impossible to restore trust in someone who faked an invoice.
I may be somewhat addled with the heat and being marginally past the first flush of youth but I find the path to a Conservative win at the Brecon and Radnor by-election tighter than @TheScreamingEagles trousers at a Bee Gees tribute night :
1. Government defending seat in mid-term 2. Conservatives polling around half their general election score 3. By-election caused by Tory naughty boy behaviour. 4. Naughty boy re-selected as Tory candidate. 5. Conservatives fishing in same pool as TBP and UKIP 6. Clear second place challenger - LibDem 7. LibDem polling around three times their general election score. 8. Clear second in Euro elections to TBP. Tories well down 9. LibDem candidate has reasonable profile as Welsh leader. 10. LibDem probably only remain candidate in 48% remain area.
Only problem is that realistically plenty of Remainers will vote for Labour.
not if they are being told the Lib Dems are the main challengers.
Nice of the Tories to help the LibDems squeeze the Labour vote.
that was my thought exactly!
The Labour vote is concentrated in the south, where Brecknockshire begins to turn into the Heads of the Valleys -- places like Ystradgynlais (the second largest town in Powys) and Abercraf.
These places have much more in common with the constituencies directly to the South -- Cynon Valley, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, Neath. They are cut from the same cloth.
Good luck to LibDems canvassing there on "Bollocks to Brexit", and hoping for Labour switchers.
I may be somewhat addled with the heat and being marginally past the first flush of youth but I find the path to a Conservative win at the Brecon and Radnor by-election tighter than @TheScreamingEagles trousers at a Bee Gees tribute night :
1. Government defending seat in mid-term 2. Conservatives polling around half their general election score 3. By-election caused by Tory naughty boy behaviour. 4. Naughty boy re-selected as Tory candidate. 5. Conservatives fishing in same pool as TBP and UKIP 6. Clear second place challenger - LibDem 7. LibDem polling around three times their general election score. 8. Clear second in Euro elections to TBP. Tories well down 9. LibDem candidate has reasonable profile as Welsh leader. 10. LibDem probably only remain candidate in 48% remain area.
Except Powys voted 52% Leave, only 10 000 voters signed the recall petition and the LDs got 12 000 votes at the last general election in Brecon and Radnor, the Tory candidate clearly got a big personal vote in 2017 and is well known locally while the LD candidate does not seem very local and wants to lecture local farmers about not having enough windmills and Labour were third in 2017 and have a lot of working class Leave voters who will not tactically vote LD but stick with the reds
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?
Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.
But if he had been employed by my company he would have been fired for Gross Misconduct...
Well that is up to your company, it depends whether a court finds the dismissal reasonable or not
Theft is grounds for Gross Misconduct which can be cause for immediate dismissal.
Legally dismissal for gross misconduct depends entirely on what a court or tribunal finds reasonable, though if theft is included as grounds for dismissal on a company's disciplinary policy that helps make the case
I may be somewhat addled with the heat and being marginally past the first flush of youth but I find the path to a Conservative win at the Brecon and Radnor by-election tighter than @TheScreamingEagles trousers at a Bee Gees tribute night :
1. Government defending seat in mid-term 2. Conservatives polling around half their general election score 3. By-election caused by Tory naughty boy behaviour. 4. Naughty boy re-selected as Tory candidate. 5. Conservatives fishing in same pool as TBP and UKIP 6. Clear second place challenger - LibDem 7. LibDem polling around three times their general election score. 8. Clear second in Euro elections to TBP. Tories well down 9. LibDem candidate has reasonable profile as Welsh leader. 10. LibDem probably only remain candidate in 48% remain area.
Except Powys voted 52% Leave, only 10 000 voters signed the recall petition and the LDs got 12 000 votes at the last general election in Brecon and Radnor, the Tory candidate clearly got a big personal vote in 2017 and is well known locally while the LD candidate wants to lecture local farmers about not having enough windmills and Labour were third in 2017 and have a lot of working class Leave voters who will not tactically vote LD but stick with the reds
But it was a LibDem seat 1985 - 1992 and again 1997 - 2015. The jump in the Tory candidate's vote in 2017 will have reflected two factors which reinforced each other - - first term incumbency for a new MP - the much higher national Tory vote share. Neither factor will apply this time.
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.
I'm sure that HYUFD can cherry pick some data to back up his assertion.
No need to cherry pick, in August 2016 soon after the referendum and the Leave win Yougov found that 50% of voters thought a Canada style Free Trade Agreement with the EU would be a good option for the UK, compared to 35% for a Norway style soft Brexit and staying in the EU and 32% for a No Deal hard Brexit
Clutching at straws with a 2016 opinion poll aren't you?
Particularly when there were other polls at the same time saying that Leave voters were 42% EFTA/EEA to 45% Clean break. That would indicate to me that once you bring Remain voters into the mix there was probably then and is probably now a clear majority for the softer Brexit as opposed to the FTA type deal. .
Nope, as I posted both that 2016 YouGov poll and the 2018 ICM poll had more support for a Canada style FTA type deal with the EU with voters as a whole than EEA Norway style soft Brexit.
Indeed Yougov last week had soft Brexit as Remainers' second preference after Remain but only Leavers' third preference after No Deal and May's Deal
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
Getting rid of crooked politicians is central to the appeal of Brexit.
I voted Leave, but what would Brexit have ever done to get rid of crooked politicians? I don't remember it being a major part of any arguments.
The prospectus saw European politicians having less direct influence over this country. Many of them are perceived to be crooked on both a personal level and a political level. Much the same applies to UK MEPs (particularly those strongly in favour of Brexit if we assume expenses cases are dealt with impartially).
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
Getting rid of crooked politicians is central to the appeal of Brexit.
I voted Leave, but what would Brexit have ever done to get rid of crooked politicians? I don't remember it being a major part of any arguments.
The idea (under some possible Brexits) would see European politicians having less direct influence over this country. Many of them are perceived to be crooked on both a personal level and a political level. Much the same applies to UK MEPs (particularly those strongly in favour of Brexit if we assume expenses cases are dealt with impartially).
Remember that the EU is an institution that for decades could not get its accounts signed off by its own auditor.
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?
Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.
But if he had been employed by my company he would have been fired for Gross Misconduct...
Well that is up to your company, it depends whether a court finds the dismissal reasonable or not
Theft is grounds for Gross Misconduct which can be cause for immediate dismissal.
Legally dismissal for gross misconduct depends entirely on what a court or tribunal finds reasonable, though if theft is included as grounds for dismissal on a company's disciplinary policy that helps make the case
In the real world, if the offence happened less than 2 years after he became an employee he wouldn't be entitled to an employment tribunal and could be sacked on the spot without any grounds for complaint.
Nice of the Tories to help the LibDems squeeze the Labour vote.
that was my thought exactly!
The Labour vote is concentrated in the south, where Brecknockshire begins to turn into the Heads of the Valleys -- places like Ystradgynlais (the second largest town in Powys) and Abercraf.
These places have much more in common with the constituencies directly to the South -- Cynon Valley, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, Neath. They are cut from the same cloth.
Good luck to LibDems canvassing there on "Bollocks to Brexit", and hoping for Labour switchers.
Indeed but are Labour voters (halved on present polling) likely to break significantly against the LibDems. I think not.
Wishful thinking on Tory routes to victory in Brecon.
Bottom line is Lib Dems are polling two or three times their 2017 General Election share, Tories half their 2017 share. This in a bang average seat in terms of referendum result. It's really hard to make a case for a Tory win in betting terms.
I may be somewhat addled with the heat and being marginally past the first flush of youth but I find the path to a Conservative win at the Brecon and Radnor by-election tighter than @TheScreamingEagles trousers at a Bee Gees tribute night :
1. Government defending seat in mid-term 2. Conservatives polling around half their general election score 3. By-election caused by Tory naughty boy behaviour. 4. Naughty boy re-selected as Tory candidate. 5. Conservatives fishing in same pool as TBP and UKIP 6. Clear second place challenger - LibDem 7. LibDem polling around three times their general election score. 8. Clear second in Euro elections to TBP. Tories well down 9. LibDem candidate has reasonable profile as Welsh leader. 10. LibDem probably only remain candidate in 48% remain area.
Except Powys voted 52% Leave, only 10 000 voters signed the recall petition and the LDs got 12 000 votes at the last general election in Brecon and Radnor, the Tory candidate clearly got a big personal vote in 2017 and is well known locally while the LD candidate wants to lecture local farmers about not having enough windmills and Labour were third in 2017 and have a lot of working class Leave voters who will not tactically vote LD but stick with the reds
But it was a LibDem seat 1985 - 1992 and again 1997 - 2015. The jump in the Tory candidate's vote in 2017 will have reflected two factors which reinforced each other - - first term incumbency for a new MP - the much higher national Tory vote share. Neither factor will apply this time.
I do not doubt it will be close and the Tory majority will be well down on the 8,038 Davies got in 2017 but I think the Tories could hold it by a couple of hundred given the Tories lead both the latest polls from Yougov and Mori and the new Tory leader will likely have seen a small bounce when the by election is held and Labour Leave voters in Powys will not tactically vote LD even if Remain voting Plaid and Green voters will.
Nice of the Tories to help the LibDems squeeze the Labour vote.
that was my thought exactly!
The Labour vote is concentrated in the south, where Brecknockshire begins to turn into the Heads of the Valleys -- places like Ystradgynlais (the second largest town in Powys) and Abercraf.
These places have much more in common with the constituencies directly to the South -- Cynon Valley, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, Neath. They are cut from the same cloth.
Good luck to LibDems canvassing there on "Bollocks to Brexit", and hoping for Labour switchers.
Indeed but are Labour voters (halved on present polling) likely to break significantly against the LibDems. I think not.
More likely they switch to the Faragistas - if they stand - or not vote at all.
It's Plaid's voters I foresee being stroppy if ordered to vote for a non-Plaid candidate.
I may be somewhat addled with the heat and being marginally past the first flush of youth but I find the path to a Conservative win at the Brecon and Radnor by-election tighter than @TheScreamingEagles trousers at a Bee Gees tribute night :
1. Government defending seat in mid-term 2. Conservatives polling around half their general election score 3. By-election caused by Tory naughty boy behaviour. 4. Naughty boy re-selected as Tory candidate. 5. Conservatives fishing in same pool as TBP and UKIP 6. Clear second place challenger - LibDem 7. LibDem polling around three times their general election score. 8. Clear second in Euro elections to TBP. Tories well down 9. LibDem candidate has reasonable profile as Welsh leader. 10. LibDem probably only remain candidate in 48% remain area.
Except Powys voted 52% Leave, only 10 000 voters signed the recall petition and the LDs got 12 000 votes at the last general election in Brecon and Radnor, the Tory candidate clearly got a big personal vote in 2017 and is well known locally while the LD candidate does not seem very local and wants to lecture local farmers about not having enough windmills and Labour were third in 2017 and have a lot of working class Leave voters who will not tactically vote LD but stick with the reds
Your points only ease the pressure of the tightness of @TheScreamingEagles trousers from soprano to mezzo-soprano.
Wishful thinking on Tory routes to victory in Brecon.
Bottom line is Lib Dems are polling two or three times their 2017 General Election share, Tories half their 2017 share. This in a bang average seat in terms of referendum result. It's really hard to make a case for a Tory win in betting terms.
When the LD candidate is lecturing local farmers on windfarms and does not really live locally and the Tory MP has lived and worked locally for years and it is a Leave voting area and the Tories are still ahead of the LDs in the polls there is certainly a case for the Tories even if the LDs are favourites.
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?
Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.
But if he had been employed by my company he would have been fired for Gross Misconduct...
Well that is up to your company, it depends whether a court finds the dismissal reasonable or not
Theft is grounds for Gross Misconduct which can be cause for immediate dismissal.
Legally dismissal for gross misconduct depends entirely on what a court or tribunal finds reasonable, though if theft is included as grounds for dismissal on a company's disciplinary policy that helps make the case
In the real world, if the offence happened less than 2 years after he became an employee he wouldn't be entitled to an employment tribunal and could be sacked on the spot without any grounds for complaint.
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?
Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.
But if he had been employed by my company he would have been fired for Gross Misconduct...
Well that is up to your company, it depends whether a court finds the dismissal reasonable or not
Theft is grounds for Gross Misconduct which can be cause for immediate dismissal.
Legally dismissal for gross misconduct depends entirely on what a court or tribunal finds reasonable, though if theft is included as grounds for dismissal on a company's disciplinary policy that helps make the case
In the real world, if the offence happened less than 2 years after he became an employee he wouldn't be entitled to an employment tribunal and could be sacked on the spot without any grounds for complaint.
Nice of the Tories to help the LibDems squeeze the Labour vote.
that was my thought exactly!
The Labour vote is concentrated in the south, where Brecknockshire begins to turn into the Heads of the Valleys -- places like Ystradgynlais (the second largest town in Powys) and Abercraf.
These places have much more in common with the constituencies directly to the South -- Cynon Valley, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, Neath. They are cut from the same cloth.
Good luck to LibDems canvassing there on "Bollocks to Brexit", and hoping for Labour switchers.
Indeed but are Labour voters (halved on present polling) likely to break significantly against the LibDems. I think not.
Have you been to any of these places, Lord Harpenden?
Are you aware of what old mining & iron and steel towns are like?
Populist politician never created the towns where poverty is rife and people feel they have no future. Tory and LibDem and New Labour Politicians created these towns by representing corporate power and not representing the people they were elected to protect.
There is no great love for the LibDems or the Tories in these places. The voters will either vote Labour or TBP.
Still, if the pb LibDems want to set up little party to go and chirrup "Bollocks to Brexit" in the Heads of the Valleys, I think it will be a good learning curve for them.
Nice of the Tories to help the LibDems squeeze the Labour vote.
that was my thought exactly!
The Labour vote is concentrated in the south, where Brecknockshire begins to turn into the Heads of the Valleys -- places like Ystradgynlais (the second largest town in Powys) and Abercraf.
These places have much more in common with the constituencies directly to the South -- Cynon Valley, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, Neath. They are cut from the same cloth.
Good luck to LibDems canvassing there on "Bollocks to Brexit", and hoping for Labour switchers.
Aren't current Labour voters about 75% remain anyway now? The voters you are talking about are surely more likely to be voting for Farage's outfit by now.
I suspect that many of the remaining 25% will prioritise the chance to kick out a Tory, particularly as I understand the Greens and Plaid have decided to give the Lib Dems a clear run.
Labour voters have always shown themselves to be pretty good at tactical voting. The core Labour vote at the by-election is more likely to be Corbynistas than hardline Brexiteers.
Given what we all know about government performances in by-elections especially one as spectacularly unpopular as this one and the unusual spectacle of the "conviction" Conservative candidate revisiting the scene of the crime why would the voters of Brecon and Radnor not give the Conservatives a hefty kick in the ballot box?
Nice of the Tories to help the LibDems squeeze the Labour vote.
that was my thought exactly!
The Labour vote is concentrated in the south, where Brecknockshire begins to turn into the Heads of the Valleys -- places like Ystradgynlais (the second largest town in Powys) and Abercraf.
These places have much more in common with the constituencies directly to the South -- Cynon Valley, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, Neath. They are cut from the same cloth.
Good luck to LibDems canvassing there on "Bollocks to Brexit", and hoping for Labour switchers.
Aren't current Labour voters about 75% remain anyway now? The voters you are talking about are surely more likely to be voting for Farage's outfit by now.
I suspect that many of the remaining 25% will prioritise the chance to kick out a Tory, particularly as I understand the Greens and Plaid have decided to give the Lib Dems a clear run.
Labour voters have always shown themselves to be pretty good at tactical voting. The core Labour vote at the by-election is more likely to be Corbynistas than hardline Brexiteers.
That could be enough for a Tory hold.
2017 LDs plus Plaid (there was no Green candidate)= 32% in Brecon and Radnor while the Tories got 48.6%.
2017 LDs plus Plaid plus Labour = 49.7% but even in the European elections Labour got 7.3% in Powys and if they stick with Labour that could be enough for the Tories to scrape home
"A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats...."
Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?
I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.
I would have thought actually there's a non-trivial chance in that seat that many would vote Tory.
As long as at least one of them votes LD, and as long as more of them vote LD than Tory, the strategy will be successful.
And I would not have said either of those was a certainty.
Put it another way - if you don't vote Liberal Democrat in an ordinary election in a marginal seat they frequently win, why would you in a by-election?
Now I think you're trolling.
No, I just used to live in Ystradgynlais and later Aberystwyth. Believe me, there is a very big gulf between Plaid and the Liberal Democrats in that part of Wales. Very often Plaid supporters are very right-wing. There is no guarantee their support would follow their leadership's endorsement.
In fact, given how cussed they are, I would have said Plaid supporters would be quite capable of voting Tory under these circumstances just to show their independence. That's doubly true as the Liberal Democrat candidate has at best limited links to the constituency. The Tory is local even if he's also a crook.
I don't see many people in Ystradgynlais voting Tory under any circumstances. We are also talking about 1300 PC votes across the whole constituency.
Nice of the Tories to help the LibDems squeeze the Labour vote.
that was my thought exactly!
The Labour vote is concentrated in the south, where Brecknockshire begins to turn into the Heads of the Valleys -- places like Ystradgynlais (the second largest town in Powys) and Abercraf.
These places have much more in common with the constituencies directly to the South -- Cynon Valley, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, Neath. They are cut from the same cloth.
Good luck to LibDems canvassing there on "Bollocks to Brexit", and hoping for Labour switchers.
Aren't current Labour voters about 75% remain anyway now? The voters you are talking about are surely more likely to be voting for Farage's outfit by now.
I suspect that many of the remaining 25% will prioritise the chance to kick out a Tory, particularly as I understand the Greens and Plaid have decided to give the Lib Dems a clear run.
Labour voters have always shown themselves to be pretty good at tactical voting. The core Labour vote at the by-election is more likely to be Corbynistas than hardline Brexiteers.
The Greens have agreed to stand aside, but I don't think Plaid Cymru have yet agreed.
The Labour voters in Powys do not live in the pretty spa towns. They are in places much closer in outlook to the Labour voters in the Don Valley.
A statement like "current Labour voters are 75 per cent remain" may be true nationally, but I doubt if it is true in Ystradgynlais.
Given what we all know about government performances in by-elections especially one as spectacularly unpopular as this one and the unusual spectacle of the "conviction" Conservative candidate revisiting the scene of the crime why would the voters of Brecon and Radnor not give the Conservatives a hefty kick in the ballot box?
A Government so spectacularly unpopular the Tories lead in both the latest Yougov and Mori polls?
"A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats...."
Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?
I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.
I would have thought actually there's a non-trivial chance in that seat that many would vote Tory.
As long as at least one of them votes LD, and as long as more of them vote LD than Tory, the strategy will be successful.
And I would not have said either of those was a certainty.
Put it another way - if you don't vote Liberal Democrat in an ordinary election in a marginal seat they frequently win, why would you in a by-election?
Now I think you're trolling.
No, I just used to live in Ystradgynlais and later Aberystwyth. Believe me, there is a very big gulf between Plaid and the Liberal Democrats in that part of Wales. Very often Plaid supporters are very right-wing. There is no guarantee their support would follow their leadership's endorsement.
In fact, given how cussed they are, I would have said Plaid supporters would be quite capable of voting Tory under these circumstances just to show their independence. That's doubly true as the Liberal Democrat candidate has at best limited links to the constituency. The Tory is local even if he's also a crook.
I don't see many people in Ystradgynlais voting Tory under any circumstances. We are also talking about 1300 PC votes across the whole constituency.
Nor do I, if you look at my other comments.
The conversation grew out of claims that Plaid will back the Liberal Democrats and this will help them. My view is that if Plaid did something as silly as that - and I don't think they will, btw - it would be just as likely to help the Tories. If the election is tight that might be crucial.
The smart move for Plaid would really be to campaign and spend the whole time whinging about Davies' conviction and the Liberal Democrats' partisan pursuit of him causing an unnecessary by-election. They might then come through the middle.
He's just giving the story more oxygen. Really man, if anyone asks, just laugh and say it's written by hacks who are jealous of your health and fitness.
Don't ever give your opponents a chance to write 'too old and frail' next to your name in a headline. Disaster.
I may be somewhat addled with the heat and being marginally past the first flush of youth but I find the path to a Conservative win at the Brecon and Radnor by-election tighter than @TheScreamingEagles trousers at a Bee Gees tribute night :
1. Government defending seat in mid-term 2. Conservatives polling around half their general election score 3. By-election caused by Tory naughty boy behaviour. 4. Naughty boy re-selected as Tory candidate. 5. Conservatives fishing in same pool as TBP and UKIP 6. Clear second place challenger - LibDem 7. LibDem polling around three times their general election score. 8. Clear second in Euro elections to TBP. Tories well down 9. LibDem candidate has reasonable profile as Welsh leader. 10. LibDem probably only remain candidate in 48% remain area.
Except Powys voted 52% Leave, only 10 000 voters signed the recall petition and the LDs got 12 000 votes at the last general election in Brecon and Radnor, the Tory candidate clearly got a big personal vote in 2017 and is well known locally while the LD candidate wants to lecture local farmers about not having enough windmills and Labour were third in 2017 and have a lot of working class Leave voters who will not tactically vote LD but stick with the reds
But it was a LibDem seat 1985 - 1992 and again 1997 - 2015. The jump in the Tory candidate's vote in 2017 will have reflected two factors which reinforced each other - - first term incumbency for a new MP - the much higher national Tory vote share. Neither factor will apply this time.
I do not doubt it will be close and the Tory majority will be well down on the 8,038 Davies got in 2017 but I think the Tories could hold it by a couple of hundred given the Tories lead both the latest polls from Yougov and Mori and the new Tory leader will likely have seen a small bounce when the by election is held and Labour Leave voters in Powys will not tactically vote LD even if Remain voting Plaid and Green voters will.
Oh for gods sake cut the crap the lib dems will get north of 50% of the vote against a lying cheating fraud. They know how to run a by election, many of the 10% of the voters who are farmers are shitting themselves over the lunatic approach the Tory’s are taking over brexit. If you believe what you are posting you would have the house on a Tory win. Forget bloody national polls for once and look to historical performance in by elections. So how much have you put on a Tory win?
Have you been to any of these places, Lord Harpenden?
Are you aware of what old mining & iron and steel towns are like?
Populist politician never created the towns where poverty is rife and people feel they have no future. Tory and LibDem and New Labour Politicians created these towns by representing corporate power and not representing the people they were elected to protect.
There is no great love for the LibDems or the Tories in these places. The voters will either vote Labour or TBP.
Still, if the pb LibDems want to set up little party to go and chirrup "Bollocks to Brexit" in the Heads of the Valleys, I think it will be a good learning curve for them.
Thank you for another title but JackW is perfectly adequate.
Neither do I need to be patronised about the nature of the towns you refer to. Labour has lost around half their vote share in Wales much of it the TPB but also some remain to the LibDems. My point that you seem to have taken offence to was that the LibDems would certainly not be worse off in this seat compared to 2017 in relation to Labour voters.
Oh for gods sake cut the crap the lib dems will get north of 50% of the vote against a lying cheating fraud. They know how to run a by election, many of the 10% of the voters who are farmers are shitting themselves over the lunatic approach the Tory’s are taking over brexit. If you believe what you are posting you would have the house on a Tory win. Forget bloody national polls for once and look to historical performance in by elections. So how much have you put on a Tory win?
It's 53 years since any candidate topped 50% in any election in this seat (and that was when Labour won). Indeed, Davies at 48.8% came as close as anyone. It is a multiple way marginal and unless it's reduced to two candidates, which I'm pretty sure it won't be, the winner is very unlikely to get significantly more than 40%.
Nice of the Tories to help the LibDems squeeze the Labour vote.
that was my thought exactly!
The Labour vote is concentrated in the south, where Brecknockshire begins to turn into the Heads of the Valleys -- places like Ystradgynlais (the second largest town in Powys) and Abercraf.
These places have much more in common with the constituencies directly to the South -- Cynon Valley, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, Neath. They are cut from the same cloth.
Good luck to LibDems canvassing there on "Bollocks to Brexit", and hoping for Labour switchers.
Aren't current Labour voters about 75% remain anyway now? The voters you are talking about are surely more likely to be voting for Farage's outfit by now.
I suspect that many of the remaining 25% will prioritise the chance to kick out a Tory, particularly as I understand the Greens and Plaid have decided to give the Lib Dems a clear run.
Labour voters have always shown themselves to be pretty good at tactical voting. The core Labour vote at the by-election is more likely to be Corbynistas than hardline Brexiteers.
The Greens have agreed to stand aside, but I don't think Plaid Cymru have yet agreed.
The Labour voters in Powys do not live in the pretty spa towns. They are in places much closer in outlook to the Labour voters in the Don Valley.
A statement like "current Labour voters are 75 per cent remain" may be true nationally, but I doubt if it is true in Ystradgynlais.
Even if it were true, it is far too simplistic to assume that being 'Remain' or 'Leave' is likely to be the main determinant of how such people will vote. Labour voters are far less obsessed with Brexit than Tories.
Oh for gods sake cut the crap the lib dems will get north of 50% of the vote against a lying cheating fraud.
You do realise that neither the Tories nor the LibDems have ever won 50 per cent of the vote in B&R.
Even Richard Livsey (a much better candidate than Dodo) at the last B&R by-election did not get 50 per cent of the vote.
I make the cheating LibDems favourites over the cheating Tory MP, but there won't be much in it.
The last party to get 50 per cent of the vote in B&R was Labour in 1966 -- but the constituency had more of a southern hinterland then and was markedly more industrial.
Nice of the Tories to help the LibDems squeeze the Labour vote.
that was my thought exactly!
The Labour vote is concentrated in the south, where Brecknockshire begins to turn into the Heads of the Valleys -- places like Ystradgynlais (the second largest town in Powys) and Abercraf.
These places have much more in common with the constituencies directly to the South -- Cynon Valley, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, Neath. They are cut from the same cloth.
Good luck to LibDems canvassing there on "Bollocks to Brexit", and hoping for Labour switchers.
Aren't current Labour voters about 75% remain anyway now? The voters you are talking about are surely more likely to be voting for Farage's outfit by now.
I suspect that many of the remaining 25% will prioritise the chance to kick out a Tory, particularly as I understand the Greens and Plaid have decided to give the Lib Dems a clear run.
Labour voters have always shown themselves to be pretty good at tactical voting. The core Labour vote at the by-election is more likely to be Corbynistas than hardline Brexiteers.
The Greens have agreed to stand aside, but I don't think Plaid Cymru have yet agreed.
The Labour voters in Powys do not live in the pretty spa towns. They are in places much closer in outlook to the Labour voters in the Don Valley.
A statement like "current Labour voters are 75 per cent remain" may be true nationally, but I doubt if it is true in Ystradgynlais.
Even if it were true, it is far too simplistic to assume that being 'Remain' or 'Leave' is likely to be the main determinant of how such people will vote. Labour voters are far less obsessed with Brexit than Tories.
Given what we all know about government performances in by-elections especially one as spectacularly unpopular as this one and the unusual spectacle of the "conviction" Conservative candidate revisiting the scene of the crime why would the voters of Brecon and Radnor not give the Conservatives a hefty kick in the ballot box?
A Government so spectacularly unpopular the Tories lead in both the latest Yougov and Mori polls?
Please advise us how much vote share the Conservatives have lost since the 2017 general election and also their vote share at the local and European election this year.
Such popularity seems to be at odds with the threat of extinction enunciated by all the Tory leadership contenders.
Your dancing on a pin head is entertaining but surely in time it must be most uncomfortable for the most loyal of Conservatives?
Oh for gods sake cut the crap the lib dems will get north of 50% of the vote against a lying cheating fraud. They know how to run a by election, many of the 10% of the voters who are farmers are shitting themselves over the lunatic approach the Tory’s are taking over brexit. If you believe what you are posting you would have the house on a Tory win. Forget bloody national polls for once and look to historical performance in by elections. So how much have you put on a Tory win?
It's 53 years since any candidate topped 50% in any election in this seat (and that was when Labour won). Indeed, Davies at 48.8% came as close as anyone. It is a multiple way marginal and unless it's reduced to two candidates, which I'm pretty sure it won't be, the winner is very unlikely to get significantly more than 40%.
Ok ott but short of a candidate almighty Bollox drop it will be a lib dem gain. It was fraud for personal gain, not a minor technical offense as he implies and that won’t go down well.
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?
Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.
But if he had been employed by my company he would have been fired for Gross Misconduct...
Well that is up to your company, it depends whether a court finds the dismissal reasonable or not
Theft is grounds for Gross Misconduct which can be cause for immediate dismissal.
If you’ve the qualifying period of service, and are dismissed for theft without a disciplinary hearing, then you would likely “win” on the grounds it was a procedurally unfair dismissal but your compensatory award would likely be reduced to zero on a Polkey/contributory fault basis if the Tribunal felt that you had actually done it.
Given what we all know about government performances in by-elections especially one as spectacularly unpopular as this one and the unusual spectacle of the "conviction" Conservative candidate revisiting the scene of the crime why would the voters of Brecon and Radnor not give the Conservatives a hefty kick in the ballot box?
A Government so spectacularly unpopular the Tories lead in both the latest Yougov and Mori polls?
Please advise us how much vote share the Conservatives have lost since the 2017 general election and also their vote share at the local and European election this year.
Such popularity seems to be at odds with the threat of extinction enunciated by all the Tory leadership contenders.
Your dancing on a pin head is entertaining but surely in time it must be most uncomfortable for the most loyal of Conservatives?
The Tory voteshare is well up on the European elections as they gradually win back Brexit Party voters, if Boris is leader in August when the by election will be held on a Leave in October Deal or No Deal ticket that will shore up the Tory vote in Brecon and Radnor yet further
Oh for gods sake cut the crap the lib dems will get north of 50% of the vote against a lying cheating fraud.
You do realise that neither the Tories nor the LibDems have ever won 50 per cent of the vote in B&R.
Even Richard Livsey (a much better candidate than Dodo) at the last B&R by-election did not get 50 per cent of the vote.
I make the cheating LibDems favourites over the cheating Tory MP, but there won't be much in it.
The last party to get 50 per cent of the vote in B&R was Labour in 1966 -- but the constituency had more of a southern hinterland then and was markedly more industrial.
I do wonder what trauma you have suffered at the hands of a lib dem politician to have such a vitriolic view of them.
My point that you seem to have taken offence to was that the LibDems would certainly not be worse off in this seat compared to 2017 in relation to Labour voters.
The point is indisputable.
The point that you are making is disputable. It might be true for Labour voters in London, but I doubt if it is true for Labour voters in old iron and steel and coal towns.
I don't think there are rich pickings -- or even meagre pickings -- for the LibDems amongst the Labour voters in Brecon & Radnorshire.
And I think it might worth the LibDems thinking a little about why this is.
Oh for gods sake cut the crap the lib dems will get north of 50% of the vote against a lying cheating fraud. They know how to run a by election, many of the 10% of the voters who are farmers are shitting themselves over the lunatic approach the Tory’s are taking over brexit. If you believe what you are posting you would have the house on a Tory win. Forget bloody national polls for once and look to historical performance in by elections. So how much have you put on a Tory win?
It's 53 years since any candidate topped 50% in any election in this seat (and that was when Labour won). Indeed, Davies at 48.8% came as close as anyone. It is a multiple way marginal and unless it's reduced to two candidates, which I'm pretty sure it won't be, the winner is very unlikely to get significantly more than 40%.
Ok exaggeration but short of a candidate almighty Bollox drop it will be a lib dem gain. It was fraud for personal gain, not a minor technical offense as he implies and that won’t go down well.
That's a likely outcome, agreed, but not a foregone conclusion. This is a seat that loves behaving in unexpected ways. To be honest, the best advice I can give is to steer clear of any betting on it, because there are so many complex factors at work.
Oh for gods sake cut the crap the lib dems will get north of 50% of the vote against a lying cheating fraud.
You do realise that neither the Tories nor the LibDems have ever won 50 per cent of the vote in B&R.
Even Richard Livsey (a much better candidate than Dodo) at the last B&R by-election did not get 50 per cent of the vote.
I make the cheating LibDems favourites over the cheating Tory MP, but there won't be much in it.
The last party to get 50 per cent of the vote in B&R was Labour in 1966 -- but the constituency had more of a southern hinterland then and was markedly more industrial.
At the 1985 by election the anti-Tory vote was pretty evenly split between the Liberals and Labour with the Tories quite some way behind in third place. The electoral dynamics of the seat have now changed as a result of many years of LibDem representation.
Nice of the Tories to help the LibDems squeeze the Labour vote.
that was my thought exactly!
The Labour vote is concentrated in the south, where Brecknockshire begins to turn into the Heads of the Valleys -- places like Ystradgynlais (the second largest town in Powys) and Abercraf.
These places have much more in common with the constituencies directly to the South -- Cynon Valley, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, Neath. They are cut from the same cloth.
Good luck to LibDems canvassing there on "Bollocks to Brexit", and hoping for Labour switchers.
Aren't current Labour voters about 75% remain anyway now? The voters you are talking about are surely more likely to be voting for Farage's outfit by now.
I suspect that many of the remaining 25% will prioritise the chance to kick out a Tory, particularly as I understand the Greens and Plaid have decided to give the Lib Dems a clear run.
Labour voters have always shown themselves to be pretty good at tactical voting. The core Labour vote at the by-election is more likely to be Corbynistas than hardline Brexiteers.
The Greens have agreed to stand aside, but I don't think Plaid Cymru have yet agreed.
The Labour voters in Powys do not live in the pretty spa towns. They are in places much closer in outlook to the Labour voters in the Don Valley.
A statement like "current Labour voters are 75 per cent remain" may be true nationally, but I doubt if it is true in Ystradgynlais.
Even if it were true, it is far too simplistic to assume that being 'Remain' or 'Leave' is likely to be the main determinant of how such people will vote. Labour voters are far less obsessed with Brexit than Tories.
Oh for gods sake cut the crap the lib dems will get north of 50% of the vote against a lying cheating fraud.
You do realise that neither the Tories nor the LibDems have ever won 50 per cent of the vote in B&R.
Even Richard Livsey (a much better candidate than Dodo) at the last B&R by-election did not get 50 per cent of the vote.
I make the cheating LibDems favourites over the cheating Tory MP, but there won't be much in it.
The last party to get 50 per cent of the vote in B&R was Labour in 1966 -- but the constituency had more of a southern hinterland then and was markedly more industrial.
I do wonder what trauma you have suffered at the hands of a lib dem politician to have such a vitriolic view of them.
I use to vote LibDem. In fact, I even voted for M. Smithson.
But then I found the LibDems posted interminable nonsense on pb.com.
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?
Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.
But if he had been employed by my company he would have been fired for Gross Misconduct...
Well that is up to your company, it depends whether a court finds the dismissal reasonable or not
Theft is grounds for Gross Misconduct which can be cause for immediate dismissal.
Legally dismissal for gross misconduct depends entirely on what a court or tribunal finds reasonable, though if theft is included as grounds for dismissal on a company's disciplinary policy that helps make the case
In the real world, if the offence happened less than 2 years after he became an employee he wouldn't be entitled to an employment tribunal and could be sacked on the spot without any grounds for complaint.
He could bring a discrimination claim or wrongful (ie breach of contract) claim for his notice, He could even claim he wasn’t a whistleblower. The two year service rule only applies to ordinary unfair dismissal claims - very dangerous just to dismiss without an investigation to show reasonable belief whatever the length of service.
I was tempted by the 9 on betfair for a Con hold. Just seemed a bit high in the circumstances although of course it would be a surprise if the LDs fail to take the seat.
On another matter I owe the blog an apology. My sources were wrong. Stormzy did deliver a powerful, politically charged set last night at Glasto but he did NOT come out clearly for a second referendum with Remain as an option. Has he been got at by Seumus Milne? I hope not.
He has to do something as his "music" is absolute crap.
Given what we all know about government performances in by-elections especially one as spectacularly unpopular as this one and the unusual spectacle of the "conviction" Conservative candidate revisiting the scene of the crime why would the voters of Brecon and Radnor not give the Conservatives a hefty kick in the ballot box?
A Government so spectacularly unpopular the Tories lead in both the latest Yougov and Mori polls?
Please advise us how much vote share the Conservatives have lost since the 2017 general election and also their vote share at the local and European election this year.
Such popularity seems to be at odds with the threat of extinction enunciated by all the Tory leadership contenders.
Your dancing on a pin head is entertaining but surely in time it must be most uncomfortable for the most loyal of Conservatives?
The Tory voteshare is well up on the European elections as they gradually win back Brexit Party voters, if Boris is leader in August when the by election will be held on a Leave in October Deal or No Deal ticket that will shore up the Tory vote in Brecon and Radnor yet further
If it follows the pattern of the Peterborough by election - which saw a 25% drop in the Tory vote share - the Tories will do well to get 30% here. Any Boris bounce is likely to be largely in the poll figures we are currently seeing - and many postal votes will already have been cast.
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?
Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.
But if he had been employed by my company he would have been fired for Gross Misconduct...
Well that is up to your company, it depends whether a court finds the dismissal reasonable or not
Theft is grounds for Gross Misconduct which can be cause for immediate dismissal.
Legally dismissal for gross misconduct depends entirely on what a court or tribunal finds reasonable, though if theft is included as grounds for dismissal on a company's disciplinary policy that helps make the case
The government's own website advising on dismissal lists theft as grounds for immediate dismissal.
Oh for gods sake cut the crap the lib dems will get north of 50% of the vote against a lying cheating fraud.
You do realise that neither the Tories nor the LibDems have ever won 50 per cent of the vote in B&R.
Even Richard Livsey (a much better candidate than Dodo) at the last B&R by-election did not get 50 per cent of the vote.
I make the cheating LibDems favourites over the cheating Tory MP, but there won't be much in it.
The last party to get 50 per cent of the vote in B&R was Labour in 1966 -- but the constituency had more of a southern hinterland then and was markedly more industrial.
I do wonder what trauma you have suffered at the hands of a lib dem politician to have such a vitriolic view of them.
I use to vote LibDem. In fact, I even voted for M. Smithson.
But then I found the LibDems posted interminable nonsense on pb.com.
Oh come on everybody on occasions post crap on here, it must be more deep rooted than that.
Given what we all know about government performances in by-elections especially one as spectacularly unpopular as this one and the unusual spectacle of the "conviction" Conservative candidate revisiting the scene of the crime why would the voters of Brecon and Radnor not give the Conservatives a hefty kick in the ballot box?
Did you mean to write the words "ballot box" or another word so widely used by Lib Dems nowadays ?
My point that you seem to have taken offence to was that the LibDems would certainly not be worse off in this seat compared to 2017 in relation to Labour voters.
The point is indisputable.
The point that you are making is disputable. It might be true for Labour voters in London, but I doubt if it is true for Labour voters in old iron and steel and coal towns.
I don't think there are rich pickings -- or even meagre pickings -- for the LibDems amongst the Labour voters in Brecon & Radnorshire.
And I think it might worth the LibDems thinking a little about why this is.
I never said there were "rich pickings" but that the LibDems would not be worse of for the poor national showing of Labour in Wales. Do you seriously dispute that contention?
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.
I'm sure that HYUFD can cherry pick some data to back up his assertion.
No need to cherry pick, in August 2016 soon after the referendum and the Leave win Yougov found that 50% of voters thought a Canada style Free Trade Agreement with the EU would be a good option for the UK, compared to 35% for a Norway style soft Brexit and staying in the EU and 32% for a No Deal hard Brexit
Clutching at straws with a 2016 opinion poll aren't you?
Particularly when there were other polls at the same time saying that Leave voters were 42% EFTA/EEA to 45% Clean break. That would indicate to me that once you bring Remain voters into the mix there was probably then and is probably now a clear majority for the softer Brexit as opposed to the FTA type deal. .
Nope, as I posted both that 2016 YouGov poll and the 2018 ICM poll had more support for a Canada style FTA type deal with the EU with voters as a whole than EEA Norway style soft Brexit.
Indeed Yougov last week had soft Brexit as Remainers' second preference after Remain but only Leavers' third preference after No Deal and May's Deal
So it is one YouGov poll vs another. Neither you nor I are in a position to say which is a better reflection of public opinion with any degree of certainty.
I was tempted by the 9 on betfair for a Con hold. Just seemed a bit high in the circumstances although of course it would be a surprise if the LDs fail to take the seat.
On another matter I owe the blog an apology. My sources were wrong. Stormzy did deliver a powerful, politically charged set last night at Glasto but he did NOT come out clearly for a second referendum with Remain as an option. Has he been got at by Seumus Milne? I hope not.
He has to do something as his "music" is absolute crap.
I may be somewhat addled with the heat and being marginally past the first flush of youth but I find the path to a Conservative win at the Brecon and Radnor by-election tighter than @TheScreamingEagles trousers at a Bee Gees tribute night :
1. Government defending seat in mid-term 2. Conservatives polling around half their general election score 3. By-election caused by Tory naughty boy behaviour. 4. Naughty boy re-selected as Tory candidate. 5. Conservatives fishing in same pool as TBP and UKIP 6. Clear second place challenger - LibDem 7. LibDem polling around three times their general election score. 8. Clear second in Euro elections to TBP. Tories well down 9. LibDem candidate has reasonable profile as Welsh leader. 10. LibDem probably only remain candidate in 48% remain area.
Except Powys voted 52% Leave, only 10 000 voters signed the recall petition and the LDs got 12 000 votes at the last general election in Brecon and Radnor, the Tory candidate clearly got a big personal vote in 2017 and is well known locally while the LD candidate wants to lecture local farmers about not having enough windmills and Labour were third in 2017 and have a lot of working class Leave voters who will not tactically vote LD but stick with the reds
But it was a LibDem seat 1985 - 1992 and again 1997 - 2015. The jump in the Tory candidate's vote in 2017 will have reflected two factors which reinforced each other - - first term incumbency for a new MP - the much higher national Tory vote share. Neither factor will apply this time.
I do not doubt it will be ters will.
Oh for gods sake cut the crap the lib dems will get north of 50% of the vote against a lying cheating fraud. They know how to run a by election, many of the 10% of the voters who are farmers are shitting themselves over the lunatic approach the Tory’s are taking over brexit. If you believe what you are posting you would have the house on a Tory win. Forget bloody national polls for once and look to historical performance in by elections. So how much have you put on a Tory win?
In the last by election in a Leave seat the LDs had a chance of winning, Sleaford and North Hykeham in 2016 (the LDs were second there in 2010), the Tory to LD swing was 4%.
Leave voting Brecon and Radnor is more Sleaford and North Hykeham than Remain voting Witney or Richmond Park
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
I am not sure the country does know what it wants. The evidence, other than that which you are about to produce to prove me wrong, would seem to demonstrate this too.
By the way, did you see Johnson's model bus interview? For me it was an example of his utter contempt for his audience, namely both his immediate and wider electorate. He was making a monkey out of you and me!
He really is a nasty piece of work and Hunt is not much better , a bigger pair of smug chancers you will never see.
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?
Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.
But if he had been employed by my company he would have been fired for Gross Misconduct...
Well that is up to your company, it depends whether a court finds the dismissal reasonable or not
Theft is grounds for Gross Misconduct which can be cause for immediate dismissal.
Legally dismissal for gross misconduct depends entirely on what a court or tribunal finds reasonable, though if theft is included as grounds for dismissal on a company's disciplinary policy that helps make the case
The government's own website advising on dismissal lists theft as grounds for immediate dismissal.
Polkey v AE Dayton Services Ltd [1987] UKHL 8 is authority for the proposition that breach of procedure will result in a finding of unfair dismissal but damages can be reduced up to 100% if the tribunal finds the dismissal would have happened in any event - m.acas.org.uk/index.aspx?articleid=4336
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
I am not sure the country does know what it wants. The evidence, other than that which you are about to produce to prove me wrong, would seem to demonstrate this too.
By the way, did you see Johnson's model bus interview? For me it was an example of his utter contempt for his audience, namely both his immediate and wider electorate. He was making a monkey out of you and me!
He really is a nasty piece of work and Hunt is not much better , a bigger pair of smug chancers you will never see.
Evening Malcolm, trust he turnips are bearing up in this hot weather. We may be needing plenty before too long...
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors
They should bring out the Maiden for these chancers. Sooner we are free of these losers the better.
Given what we all know about government performances in by-elections especially one as spectacularly unpopular as this one and the unusual spectacle of the "conviction" Conservative candidate revisiting the scene of the crime why would the voters of Brecon and Radnor not give the Conservatives a hefty kick in the ballot box?
Did you mean to write the words "ballot box" or another word so widely used by Lib Dems nowadays ?
Given what we all know about government performances in by-elections especially one as spectacularly unpopular as this one and the unusual spectacle of the "conviction" Conservative candidate revisiting the scene of the crime why would the voters of Brecon and Radnor not give the Conservatives a hefty kick in the ballot box?
A Government so spectacularly unpopular the Tories lead in both the latest Yougov and Mori polls?
Please advise us how much vote share the Conservatives have lost since the 2017 general election and also their vote share at the local and European election this year.
Such popularity seems to be at odds with the threat of extinction enunciated by all the Tory leadership contenders.
Your dancing on a pin head is entertaining but surely in time it must be most uncomfortable for the most loyal of Conservatives?
The Tory voteshare is well up on the European elections as they gradually win back Brexit Party voters, if Boris is leader in August when the by election will be held on a Leave in October Deal or No Deal ticket that will shore up the Tory vote in Brecon and Radnor yet further
My word you are in denial. I shall leave you within your bubble for fear that further engagement will have you appear like the home end of West Ham Utd.
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?
Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.
But if he had been employed by my company he would have been fired for Gross Misconduct...
Well that is up to your company, it depends whether a court finds the dismissal reasonable or not
Theft is grounds for Gross Misconduct which can be cause for immediate dismissal.
Legally dismissal for gross misconduct depends entirely on what a court or tribunal finds reasonable, though if theft is included as grounds for dismissal on a company's disciplinary policy that helps make the case
The government's own website advising on dismissal lists theft as grounds for immediate dismissal.
If it is recorded as such in the disciplinary policy then that gives a strong presumption in favour of dismissal, otherwise it must still be reasonable in all the circumstances.
Dismissal for gross misconduct as a matter of law in England and Wales is based on whether it is reasonable or not, there is no law as to what constitutes gross misconduct or not beyond that
Oh for gods sake cut the crap the lib dems will get north of 50% of the vote against a lying cheating fraud. They know how to run a by election, many of the 10% of the voters who are farmers are shitting themselves over the lunatic approach the Tory’s are taking over brexit. If you believe what you are posting you would have the house on a Tory win. Forget bloody national polls for once and look to historical performance in by elections. So how much have you put on a Tory win?
It's 53 years since any candidate topped 50% in any election in this seat (and that was when Labour won). Indeed, Davies at 48.8% came as close as anyone. It is a multiple way marginal and unless it's reduced to two candidates, which I'm pretty sure it won't be, the winner is very unlikely to get significantly more than 40%.
Ok exaggeration but short of a candidate almighty Bollox drop it will be a lib dem gain. It was fraud for personal gain, not a minor technical offense as he implies and that won’t go down well.
That's a likely outcome, agreed, but not a foregone conclusion. This is a seat that loves behaving in unexpected ways. To be honest, the best advice I can give is to steer clear of any betting on it, because there are so many complex factors at work.
Not to mention that we are 5 weeks away, in a febrile political situation with polls swinging all over the place, and 2 of the 3 contending parties will have new leaders by then. That said I can't say the LDs shouldn't be favourite. 1/5 seems skinny though, given the above.
I may be somewhat addled with the heat and being marginally past the first flush of youth but I find the path to a Conservative win at the Brecon and Radnor by-election tighter than @TheScreamingEagles trousers at a Bee Gees tribute night :
1. Government defending seat in mid-term 2. Conservatives polling around half their general election score 3. By-election caused by Tory naughty boy behaviour. 4. Naughty boy re-selected as Tory candidate. 5. Conservatives fishing in same pool as TBP and UKIP 6. Clear second place challenger - LibDem 7. LibDem polling around three times their general election score. 8. Clear second in Euro elections to TBP. Tories well down 9. LibDem candidate has reasonable profile as Welsh leader. 10. LibDem probably only remain candidate in 48% remain area.
Except Powys voted 52% Leave, only 10 000 voters signed the recall petition and the LDs got 12 000 votes at the last general election in Brecon and Radnor, the Tory candidate clearly got a big personal vote in 2017 and is well known locally while the LD candidate wants to lecture local farmers about not having enough windmills and Labour were third in 2017 and have a lot of working class Leave voters who will not tactically vote LD but stick with the reds
But it was a LibDem seat 1985 - 1992 and again 1997 - 2015. The jump in the Tory candidate's vote in 2017 will have reflected two factors which reinforced each other - - first term incumbency for a new MP - the much higher national Tory vote share. Neither factor will apply this time.
I do not doubt it will be ters will.
Oh for gods sake cut the crap the lib dems will get north of 50% of the vote against a lying cheating fraud. They know how to run a by election, many of the 10% of the voters who are farmers are shitting themselves over the lunatic approach the Tory’s are taking over brexit. If you believe what you are posting you would have the house on a Tory win. Forget bloody national polls for once and look to historical performance in by elections. So how much have you put on a Tory win?
In the last by election in a Leave seat the LDs had a chance of winning, Sleaford and North Hykeham in 2016 (the LDs were second there in 2010), the Tory to LD swing was 4%.
Leave voting Brecon and Radnor is more Sleaford and North Hykeham than Remain voting Witney or Richmond Park
The EU referendum result in Brecon & Radnor was closer to Witney than to Sleaford & North Hykeham.
Given what we all know about government performances in by-elections especially one as spectacularly unpopular as this one and the unusual spectacle of the "conviction" Conservative candidate revisiting the scene of the crime why would the voters of Brecon and Radnor not give the Conservatives a hefty kick in the ballot box?
A Government so spectacularly unpopular the Tories lead in both the latest Yougov and Mori polls?
Please advise us how much vote share the Conservatives have lost since the 2017 general election and also their vote share at the local and European election this year.
Such popularity seems to be at odds with the threat of extinction enunciated by all the Tory leadership contenders.
Your dancing on a pin head is entertaining but surely in time it must be most uncomfortable for the most loyal of Conservatives?
The Tory voteshare is well up on the European elections as they gradually win back Brexit Party voters, if Boris is leader in August when the by election will be held on a Leave in October Deal or No Deal ticket that will shore up the Tory vote in Brecon and Radnor yet further
If it follows the pattern of the Peterborough by election - which saw a 25% drop in the Tory vote share - the Tories will do well to get 30% here. Any Boris bounce is likely to be largely in the poll figures we are currently seeing - and many postal votes will already have been cast.
It won't, as the Brexit Party is already polling below what it was polling at the time of the Peterborough by election and the Tories are polling above and that is even before the bounce for a new leader
Given what we all know about government performances in by-elections especially one as spectacularly unpopular as this one and the unusual spectacle of the "conviction" Conservative candidate revisiting the scene of the crime why would the voters of Brecon and Radnor not give the Conservatives a hefty kick in the ballot box?
Did you mean to write the words "ballot box" or another word so widely used by Lib Dems nowadays ?
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.
I'm sure that HYUFD can cherry pick some data to back up his assertion.
No need to cherry pick, in August 2016 soon after the referendum and the Leave win Yougov found that 50% of voters thought a Canada style Free Trade Agreement with the EU would be a good option for the UK, compared to 35% for a Norway style soft Brexit and staying in the EU and 32% for a No Deal hard Brexit
Clutching at straws with a 2016 opinion poll aren't you?
Particularly when there were other polls at the same time saying that Leave voters were 42% EFTA/EEA to 45% Clean break. That would indicate to me that once you bring Remain voters into the mix there was probably then and is probably now a clear majority for the softer Brexit as opposed to the FTA type deal. .
Nope, as I posted both that 2016 YouGov poll and the 2018 ICM poll had more support for a Canada style FTA type deal with the EU with voters as a whole than EEA Norway style soft Brexit.
Indeed Yougov last week had soft Brexit as Remainers' second preference after Remain but only Leavers' third preference after No Deal and May's Deal
So it is one YouGov poll vs another. Neither you nor I are in a position to say which is a better reflection of public opinion with any degree of certainty.
Nope, it is one Yougov and one ICM poll showing most GB voters prefer a Canada style FTA to EEA versus no poll you have yet produced showing that EEA is preferred by most GB voters to a Canada style FTA
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?
Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.
But if he had been employed by my company he would have been fired for Gross Misconduct...
Well that is up to your company, it depends whether a court finds the dismissal reasonable or not
Theft is grounds for Gross Misconduct which can be cause for immediate dismissal.
Legally dismissal for gross misconduct depends entirely on what a court or tribunal finds reasonable, though if theft is included as grounds for dismissal on a company's disciplinary policy that helps make the case
The government's own website advising on dismissal lists theft as grounds for immediate dismissal.
Polkey v AE Dayton Services Ltd [1987] UKHL 8 is authority for the proposition that breach of procedure will result in a finding of unfair dismissal but damages can be reduced up to 100% if the tribunal finds the dismissal would have happened in any event - m.acas.org.uk/index.aspx?articleid=4336
Nice of the Tories to help the LibDems squeeze the Labour vote.
that was my thought exactly!
The Labour vote is concentrated in the south, where Brecknockshire begins to turn into the Heads of the Valleys -- places like Ystradgynlais (the second largest town in Powys) and Abercraf.
These places have much more in common with the constituencies directly to the South -- Cynon Valley, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, Neath. They are cut from the same cloth.
Good luck to LibDems canvassing there on "Bollocks to Brexit", and hoping for Labour switchers.
Aren't current Labour voters about 75% remain anyway now? The voters you are talking about are surely more likely to be voting for Farage's outfit by now.
I suspect that many of the remaining 25% will prioritise the chance to kick out a Tory, particularly as I understand the Greens and Plaid have decided to give the Lib Dems a clear run.
Labour voters have always shown themselves to be pretty good at tactical voting. The core Labour vote at the by-election is more likely to be Corbynistas than hardline Brexiteers.
That could be enough for a Tory hold.
2017 LDs plus Plaid (there was no Green candidate)= 32% in Brecon and Radnor while the Tories got 48.6%.
2017 LDs plus Plaid plus Labour = 49.7% but even in the European elections Labour got 7.3% in Powys and if they stick with Labour that could be enough for the Tories to scrape home
You seem to overlooking the rather large fact that the Tory vote is going to split between them and the Brexit Party.
Comments
Davies has been a local vet and auctioneer and in 2017 got the highest Tory voteshare in Brecon and Radnor since the 1960s, I would not count him out yet
Dancing on pinheads, rather than saying explicitly that you want to treat NI differently and put the border in the Irish Sea, may well generate the response that you suggest. But if anyone actually proposed it, vast numbers of Conservative and Unionist MPs will be voting against.
Oh, and needlessly antagonising the DUP guarantees an immediate general election, after which we’d better really hope we don’t need their support.
Or more accurately a project so fucked up it has crossed the line to fraud as people have covered up how badly they were responsible for the fuck up.
If we go to No Deal and a hard border in Northern Ireland there is a very strong possibility that both leads to a Remain majority in GB and no Brexit at all and the end of the Union and a majority in Northern Ireland for reunification with the Republic.
However if you want to continue on that path fine, staying in government with the DUP is no longer viable, either we get a general election soon and a Tory majority government that can deliver a viable Brexit or better no Tory government at all now and let Labour and the LDs deal with it.
Last time I checked a comma was also a punctuation mark
https://twitter.com/Roddy_Campbell/status/1144510003300229120
In fact, given how cussed they are, I would have said Plaid supporters would be quite capable of voting Tory under these circumstances just to show their independence. That's doubly true as the Liberal Democrat candidate has at best limited links to the constituency. The Tory is local even if he's also a crook.
1. Government defending seat in mid-term
2. Conservatives polling around half their general election score
3. By-election caused by Tory naughty boy behaviour.
4. Naughty boy re-selected as Tory candidate.
5. Conservatives fishing in same pool as TBP and UKIP
6. Clear second place challenger - LibDem
7. LibDem polling around three times their general election score.
8. Clear second in Euro elections to TBP. Tories well down
9. LibDem candidate has reasonable profile as Welsh leader.
10. LibDem probably only remain candidate in 48% remain area.
These places have much more in common with the constituencies directly to the South -- Cynon Valley, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, Neath. They are cut from the same cloth.
Good luck to LibDems canvassing there on "Bollocks to Brexit", and hoping for Labour switchers.
- first term incumbency for a new MP
- the much higher national Tory vote share.
Neither factor will apply this time.
Indeed Yougov last week had soft Brexit as Remainers' second preference after Remain but only Leavers' third preference after No Deal and May's Deal
Bottom line is Lib Dems are polling two or three times their 2017 General Election share, Tories half their 2017 share. This in a bang average seat in terms of referendum result. It's really hard to make a case for a Tory win in betting terms.
And indeed *shock, horror* Tory.
We are an underestimated and barely acknowledged contingent everywhere else in the country, so why not in Brecon?
Massive kudos to the fire safety official at the local council, who eventually knocked some sense into them.
It's Plaid's voters I foresee being stroppy if ordered to vote for a non-Plaid candidate.
Are you aware of what old mining & iron and steel towns are like?
Populist politician never created the towns where poverty is rife and people feel they have no future. Tory and LibDem and New Labour Politicians created these towns by representing corporate power and not representing the people they were elected to protect.
There is no great love for the LibDems or the Tories in these places. The voters will either vote Labour or TBP.
Still, if the pb LibDems want to set up little party to go and chirrup "Bollocks to Brexit" in the Heads of the Valleys, I think it will be a good learning curve for them.
He just dug his heels (under massive pressure no doubt) and said “not on my watch”
Good on him
I suspect that many of the remaining 25% will prioritise the chance to kick out a Tory, particularly as I understand the Greens and Plaid have decided to give the Lib Dems a clear run.
Labour voters have always shown themselves to be pretty good at tactical voting. The core Labour vote at the by-election is more likely to be Corbynistas than hardline Brexiteers.
I don't think you will be waiting long
2017 LDs plus Plaid (there was no Green candidate)= 32% in Brecon and Radnor while the Tories got 48.6%.
2017 LDs plus Plaid plus Labour = 49.7% but even in the European elections Labour got 7.3% in Powys and if they stick with Labour that could be enough for the Tories to scrape home
The Labour voters in Powys do not live in the pretty spa towns. They are in places much closer in outlook to the Labour voters in the Don Valley.
A statement like "current Labour voters are 75 per cent remain" may be true nationally, but I doubt if it is true in Ystradgynlais.
The conversation grew out of claims that Plaid will back the Liberal Democrats and this will help them. My view is that if Plaid did something as silly as that - and I don't think they will, btw - it would be just as likely to help the Tories. If the election is tight that might be crucial.
The smart move for Plaid would really be to campaign and spend the whole time whinging about Davies' conviction and the Liberal Democrats' partisan pursuit of him causing an unnecessary by-election. They might then come through the middle.
Jeremy Corbyn: I'm not too frail to be Labour leader or PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48813656
He's just giving the story more oxygen. Really man, if anyone asks, just laugh and say it's written by hacks who are jealous of your health and fitness.
Don't ever give your opponents a chance to write 'too old and frail' next to your name in a headline. Disaster.
Neither do I need to be patronised about the nature of the towns you refer to. Labour has lost around half their vote share in Wales much of it the TPB but also some remain to the LibDems. My point that you seem to have taken offence to was that the LibDems would certainly not be worse off in this seat compared to 2017 in relation to Labour voters.
The point is indisputable.
https://twitter.com/supermathskid/status/1144991107291521024?s=21
Even Richard Livsey (a much better candidate than Dodo) at the last B&R by-election did not get 50 per cent of the vote.
I make the cheating LibDems favourites over the cheating Tory MP, but there won't be much in it.
The last party to get 50 per cent of the vote in B&R was Labour in 1966 -- but the constituency had more of a southern hinterland then and was markedly more industrial.
Such popularity seems to be at odds with the threat of extinction enunciated by all the Tory leadership contenders.
Your dancing on a pin head is entertaining but surely in time it must be most uncomfortable for the most loyal of Conservatives?
I don't think there are rich pickings -- or even meagre pickings -- for the LibDems amongst the Labour voters in Brecon & Radnorshire.
And I think it might worth the LibDems thinking a little about why this is.
But then I found the LibDems posted interminable nonsense on pb.com.
Leave voting Brecon and Radnor is more Sleaford and North Hykeham than Remain voting Witney or Richmond Park
Dismissal for gross misconduct as a matter of law in England and Wales is based on whether it is reasonable or not, there is no law as to what constitutes gross misconduct or not beyond that
That said I can't say the LDs shouldn't be favourite. 1/5 seems skinny though, given the above.