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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Polling Matters podcast on the US Democratic debate reaction & more on Hunt vs Johnson
On this week’s Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Ariel Edwards-Levy of the Huffington Post to discuss the latest developments in the race to face Donald Trump in 2020 following this week’s Democratic debates.
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I do hate exercise though. Thing is, I kind of believe it. ALthough the LDs still have not even recovered to second in many SW areas in the parliamentaries, they just seem a better fit than Labour in most of it. A Tory collapse and LD rise could see some big changes even with BXP. The Greens did well enough in the Euros that not only Bristol was voting for them too, and in a GE alliances might be made to benefit each other. Heartbreaking. In your dreams, unfortunately. Unless you mean a GE.
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1144160994136088576
You really couldn't make it up. It has gone way beyond satire
From last July
https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1020255794024132609
One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.
Still, let them eat blue passports.
It's not the most compelling pitch to the Dragon's Den. No wonder they relied upon stirring up untrue fears of millions of Muslims being poised to descend on Britain.
No doubt once they move from the abstract to the concrete, they won't be too keen on deals with China or India either.
Remain would have to realise the median voter does not stick a FBPE # behind their name on twitter though if we were to go for another referendum.
Also it is worth noting that France still has not ratified CETA because is is still worried about Canadian Beef flooding the French market, CETA is in operation but in a provisional mode.
If I wasn't very busy, I'd post a link.
AFAIK, there is no country that has a FTA with the US that does not have one with the EU. While there are lots of countries that have FTAs with the EU that do not have one with the US.
That should tell you that it is a lot easier (typically) to get an FTA with the EU than with the US.
Jealous, Dr Sunil?
https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/ceta-and-mercosur-meat-quotas-expose-frances-double-standards/?utm_source=EURACTIV&utm_campaign=4ac71335e4-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_05_27_10_05_COPY_02&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c59e2fd7a9-4ac71335e4-114478043
- so CETA is being ratified but the Brazilian deal is being resisted. The headline is provocative but in reality there French farmers have a good case - it's the same issue as will arise in a US-UK deal, that they want to export low-welfare beef ~(which is much less of an issue with Canada).
https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-and-3-others-warn-mercosur-deal-could-destabilize-farm-sector/
https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2019/0628/1059096-mercosur/
If Brexit is not delivered then the Brexit Party lead whether Boris or Hunt is Tory leader.
Tory voters prefer Boris to Hunt as PM 48% to 39% and Brexit Party voters prefer Boris to Hunt 69% to 17%.
Hunt leads with Labour voters 50% to 12% for Boris and LD voters prefer Hunt to Boris 75% to 6%.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/28/jeremy-hunt-now-leads-boris-johnson-publics-prefer
Meanwhile I see that the entryists now have Gauke and Rudd in their sights.
Hunt is favoured by Remainers 61% to 10% for Boris as preferred PM, Boris is preferred by Leavers 52% to 25% for Hunt.
However if Brexit is not delivered by October Yougov gives the Brexit Party 26% against a Hunt led Tories on 21% with the LDs and Labour each on 20%.
Against a Boris led Tory Party the Brexit Party would be on 23% with the LDs on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied on 20%.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/28/jeremy-hunt-now-leads-boris-johnson-publics-prefer
While US and Canada have used up 100% of their tariff free beef import quotas into the EU, RoW is only at 27%.
There are specific numbers on a per country basis.
Or to put it another way: look at the actual numbers, not the spin.
The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.
The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .
No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .
The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.
And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.
Last week Boris enjoyed a significant advantage (wasn't it a 118 majority with him and a 20 seat majority with Hunt?) but Hunt has pulled himself up and eroded one part (and a significant part) of Johnson's USP.
The key point remains if Brexit is deliveredand if you are going to cite the poll as evidence it's worth reminding everyone of that.
That means the poll will only matter if it happens after a successful departure on 31/10 - if we haven't left or the election takes place BEFORE 31/10 with the outcome uncertain, it's a wholly different game.
With Hunt as leader, the Conservatives are five points second behind TBP but with Boris Johnson they would be third behind TBP and the LDs and win 53 seats but could be junior partners in a TBP-led Government which would have 317 seats.
If Brexit is not delivered by October then on that poll the Brexit Party would be 8 short of a majority against a Hunt led Tories and able to form a Government with the DUP and be 62 short of a majority against a Boris led Tory Party as you say (With Farage maybe making Boris Ambassador to Washington if he is feeling generous in return for the backing of the 53 rump Tory MPs)
Do you have any thoughts on these comments from this morning: They seem to be in contradiction to your comments about how the UK's net asset position has worsened during the last twenty years and also to what you would expect from a country which has continually run a large current account deficit.
Not trying to be inquisitive I'm just interested.
The longer this goes on the more debilitating it gets for BOTH Conservatives and Labour who are currently losing nearly half their combined 2017 vote or put it another way, 26.5 million people voted either Conservative or Labour in 2017. Now, only 13.5 million would - the other 13 million have gone to TBP, LD and others.
The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.
Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.
Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
Yet as shown on the previous thread Corbyn Labour is now screwed regardless with Yougov today.
If Corbyn Labour continues to oppose EUref2 and sticks to Brexit plus Customs Union and Swinson's LDs back EUref2 then the LDs would be on 30%, Boris' Tories on 24%, the Brexit Party on 19% and Labour would fall to 4th on just 17%.
Even if Corbyn Labour backed EUref2 it would still only be second on 22%, tied with the LDs and behind the Boris led Tory Party on 26% with the Brexit Party on 20%.
Starmer does a bit better. If he ousts Corbyn and commits to EUref2 Labour scrape a 1% lead on 26% with the Tories on 25%, the Brexit Party on 20% and the LDs on 19%.
If Starmer as leader stuck to Labour's Brexit plus Customs Union policy though Labour again collapses to 4th on 17% with the LDs on 29% and the Tories on 24% and Brexit Party on 19%
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/28/what-would-it-take-labour-win-general-election-new
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1144671244069101569
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1144677558564401153
Now it is biting them in the arse.
Yesterday's attempt to torture the data into saying what he wanted it to was more impressive, I feel.
After all, yesterday, he had to go past the evidence that Jeremy Hunt was ahead of Boris Johnson as being a capable leader, being good in a crisis, having sound judgement, being less out of touch with ordinary people, and being more honest and a better representative for Britain on the world stage...
(All of which we don't look for in a Prime Minister, obviously)
Past the evidence that voters rated him as better in having what it takes to be a good Prime Minister (net -11 to Boris's -19)...
That Hunt led Corbyn by a greater amount than Boris did on being a more capable Prime Minister...
... in order to find a hypothetical hypothetical somewhere in the bowels that PROVED the Blond Bumbler to be a far better choice than Hunt.
Without even mentioning any of the things he'd glibly passed by to cherry-pick out what he needed.
Personally, given that what tentative indications we do have seem to indicate that the Lib Dems would do better with Boris than Hunt in Number 10, I can't find it in myself to disagree too much.
I believe there are 160,000 Conservative members.
Spread over 650 constituencies that will be 246 members per constituency.
Do Conservative members have to affiliate to a constituency party ? If not then there will be fewer per constituency.
A Conservative stronghold such as Hertfordshire SW is likely to have more Conservative members than average.
Gauke is saying that 50 members have signed the motion.
Also the Brexit Party overtake the Tories if we do not Leave the EU by October 31st and only Boris is committed to that, Deal or No Deal
However I backed the successful vote of no confidence in Dominic Grieve and Philip Lee by their Associations and back attempts to no confidence Sam Gyimah too as they all voted against the Withdrawal Agreement and for EUref2 and they tried to force further extension and block No Deal too and are clearly attempting to Stop Brexit outright.
They really are LDs, Gauke in my view is still a Tory even if one who wants clear blue water from the Brexit Party
As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.
And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
Biden 31.5
Sanders 17.3
Harris 16.6
Warren 14.4
Buttigieg 4.8
Booker 2.8
Beto 2.2
Castro 1.7
Yang 1.2
However, the difference between us is that Leeds Central CLP would never look to dump Hilary Benn in the manner that Gauke's association are dumping on him.
True for most, but I believe you are able to join centrally?
The Kingdom of Great Britain, officially called Great Britain, was a sovereign state in western Europe from 1 May 1707 to 1 January 1801. The state came into being following the Treaty of Union in 1706, ratified by the Acts of Union 1707, which united the kingdoms of England (which included Wales) and Scotland to form a single kingdom encompassing the whole island of Great Britain and its outlying islands, with the exception of the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.
The Kingdom of Great Britain was replaced by the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland on 1 January 1801 with the Acts of Union 1800.
The mystery remains how and why you ever came to vote to stay in the EU. Some of us have occasional moments of insanity; what explains your fleeting moment of sanity?