Those people look like decent middle england types. Shame they probably want to burn the United Kingdom and their party to the ground in order to stop trading with Europe.
Excellent news that David Gauke - one of the best ministers, and a proper Conservative - hasn't been displaced by Aaron Banks' Kipper entryists. The latter, though clearly inspired by Momentum, are a pale imitation of it.
And yet.. 187 members voting on this key issue... Not many, is it?
187 members in a Con-held seat? Sounds petrifying.
So after all that post debate hype little difference, still Biden first and Sanders second, just Harris and Warren closing in on Sanders and the rest of the field nowhere
He had a bad night, but He is still a way ahead, and has plenty of fundraising cash behind him.
Finishes third in Iowa, moves to odds on favourite? 😉
Harris won't finish third in Iowa, Buttigieg will outperform there. His support is 100% white. South Carolina is the early one Harris needs to do well in.
Those people look like decent middle england types. Shame they probably want to burn the United Kingdom and their party to the ground in order to stop trading with Europe.
No, they just want to deliver the Brexit 17 million voted for, the fact Gauke survived shows they would happily support Brexit with a Deal with the EU but if not they will back Brexit with No Deal rather than further extension beyond October or revoke
In the event of a GE before Brexit happens (if it happens) I have to admit I'm torn on who to vote for.
I'm a natural Lib Dem, but I also live in the Huntingdon constituency, where there has been an enormous Conservative majority since about 1700BC. The current MP, Jonathan Djanogly, is one of the Conservative anti-Brexit troublemakers, and I can't see him signing up to Boris' no-Deal squad.
Despite the Conservatives getting a 20%+ majority in 2017 the various electoral models have it down as becoming a 2 way marginal (Baxter currently predicts 26.8% CON against 26.7% BRX) under current polling. The LDs could put on a strong showing, but I doubt they'd win, given what the constituency demographics are like, without a Tory meltdown.
Assuming Djanogly survives any deselection attempts I'm tempted to vote for him to keep Farage's mob out, but I also recognise that that could be taken as an endorsement for Boris' no Deal crash out. I guess the best vote would depend on who the candidates were at the time of an election, but it does illustrate the point that tactical voting isn't as straightforward as people like to think - do I stick with my principles and vote LD, or do I try to keep a Farageist out? It isn't always going to just be a case of LAB/LD/GRN swapping votes to keep the CON/BRX candidate out.
The fact that even in such a safe seat I'm having to think about these things does illustrate the problem that Johnson or Hunt would have in calling an election though. And of course, if Djanogly is forced out in favour of a more Brexit friendly MP then I will go LD as the main anti-Con/BRX vote in the seat.
The key is to deliver Brexit by the end of October Deal or No Deal as that poll shows and Boris is committed to that, Hunt is not but instead open to further extension.
I do agree with those (I suspect you are one) who say agreeing to another extension from the EU would be the end for the Conservative Party in its current form.
The longer this goes on the more debilitating it gets for BOTH Conservatives and Labour who are currently losing nearly half their combined 2017 vote or put it another way, 26.5 million people voted either Conservative or Labour in 2017. Now, only 13.5 million would - the other 13 million have gone to TBP, LD and others.
Agreed further extension screws the Tories.
Yet as shown on the previous thread Corbyn Labour is now screwed regardless with Yougov today.
If Corbyn Labour continues to oppose EUref2 and sticks to Brexit plus Customs Union and Swinson's LDs back EUref2 then the LDs would be on 30%, Boris' Tories on 24%, the Brexit Party on 19% and Labour would fall to 4th on just 17%.
Even if Corbyn Labour backed EUref2 it would still only be second on 22%, tied with the LDs and behind the Boris led Tory Party on 26% with the Brexit Party on 20%.
Starmer does a bit better. If he ousts Corbyn and commits to EUref2 Labour scrape a 1% lead on 26% with the Tories on 25%, the Brexit Party on 20% and the LDs on 19%.
If Starmer as leader stuck to Labour's Brexit plus Customs Union policy though Labour again collapses to 4th on 17% with the LDs on 29% and the Tories on 24% and Brexit Party on 19%
Shows what Gauke knows - he may have survived this vote, but most Tories think voting Brexit Party is more conservative than voting Conservative, judging by the EP elections. Heck, based on the last 2 elections I'm more consistent in voting for them than most Tory members are.
Those people look like decent middle england types. Shame they probably want to burn the United Kingdom and their party to the ground in order to stop trading with Europe.
No, they just want to deliver the Brexit 17 million voted for, the fact Gauke survived shows they would happily support Brexit with a Deal with the EU but if not they will back Brexit with No Deal rather than further extension beyond October or revoke
Not accepting any extension after October means they want to No Deal and to wreck this country. There is no possible, sensible, managed way to leave by end of October.
Those people look like decent middle england types. Shame they probably want to burn the United Kingdom and their party to the ground in order to stop trading with Europe.
No, they just want to deliver the Brexit 17 million voted for, the fact Gauke survived shows they would happily support Brexit with a Deal with the EU
You should tell that to the various MPs backing Boris who definitely do not support Brexit with a deal with the EU, and who are priapic at that prospect being within their grasp. They are not all waiting expectantly for Boris to come back with a better deal. Nor are many many members it seems, given the way many describe the last deal, even though their hero Boris backed it.
Shows what Gauke knows - he may have survived this vote, but most Tories think voting Brexit Party is more conservative than voting Conservative, judging by the EP elections. Heck, based on the last 2 elections I'm more consistent in voting for them than most Tory members are.
The key is to deliver Brexit by the end of October Deal or No Deal as that poll shows and Boris is committed to that, Hunt is not but instead open to further extension.
I do agree with those (I suspect you are one) who say agreeing to another extension from the EU would be the end for the Conservative Party in its current form.
The longer this goes on the more debilitating it gets for BOTH Conservatives and Labour who are currently losing nearly half their combined 2017 vote or put it another way, 26.5 million people voted either Conservative or Labour in 2017. Now, only 13.5 million would - the other 13 million have gone to TBP, LD and others.
Agreed further extension screws the Tories.
Yet as shown on the previous thread Corbyn Labour is now screwed regardless with Yougov today.
If Corbyn Labour continues to oppose EUref2 and sticks to Brexit plus Customs Union and Swinson's LDs back EUref2 then the LDs would be on 30%, Boris' Tories on 24%, the Brexit Party on 19% and Labour would fall to 4th on just 17%.
Even if Corbyn Labour backed EUref2 it would still only be second on 22%, tied with the LDs and behind the Boris led Tory Party on 26% with the Brexit Party on 20%.
Starmer does a bit better. If he ousts Corbyn and commits to EUref2 Labour scrape a 1% lead on 26% with the Tories on 25%, the Brexit Party on 20% and the LDs on 19%.
If Starmer as leader stuck to Labour's Brexit plus Customs Union policy though Labour again collapses to 4th on 17% with the LDs on 29% and the Tories on 24% and Brexit Party on 19%
Could there be a large amount of totally committed brexiteers who also like the idea of Corbyns nationalisations?
YouGov has the LDs winning Remainers 52% to just 21% for Corbyn Labour and 9% for the Tories if Corbyn refuses to back EUref2. However Labour gets 9% of Leavers in that scenario.
Even if Corbyn backs EUref2 Remainers still split 40% LD, only 33% Labour and 11% Tory and 7% of Leave voters still back Labour
Those people look like decent middle england types. Shame they probably want to burn the United Kingdom and their party to the ground in order to stop trading with Europe.
No, they just want to deliver the Brexit 17 million voted for, the fact Gauke survived shows they would happily support Brexit with a Deal with the EU but if not they will back Brexit with No Deal rather than further extension beyond October or revoke
Not accepting any extension after October means they want to No Deal and to wreck this country. There is no possible, sensible, managed way to leave by end of October.
Accepting further extension means no Brexit at all as the current Commons will never vote for the Withdrawal Agreement as is and the EU will not amend it further.
In which case No Deal it will have to be if diehard Remainers refuse to respect democracy (although if we get a Tory majority before October then the Withdrawal Agreement could pass with just the temporary CU for GB removed from the PD which the EU would agree)
Those people look like decent middle england types. Shame they probably want to burn the United Kingdom and their party to the ground in order to stop trading with Europe.
No, they just want to deliver the Brexit 17 million voted for, the fact Gauke survived shows they would happily support Brexit with a Deal with the EU
You should tell that to the various MPs backing Boris who definitely do not support Brexit with a deal with the EU, and who are priapic at that prospect being within their grasp. They are not all waiting expectantly for Boris to come back with a better deal. Nor are many many members it seems, given the way many describe the last deal, even though their hero Boris backed it.
Most want a FTA for GB, which Boris will try and deliver
He voted for the WA like the new leader Boris did, it would have been very odd to punish him for that.
So I think this shows that even in a much more remainy MP's constituency, the membership has a large number of vindictive no dealers in it. What is the proportion in more leavey MP seats?
If you zoom into the article the physical bit is a bluff. They are concerned he’s not up to it “physically or mentally”... ie he’s thick as pig sh1t
He voted for the WA like the new leader Boris did, it would have been very odd to punish him for that.
So I think this shows that even in a much more remainy MP's constituency, the membership has a large number of vindictive no dealers in it. What is the proportion in more leavey MP seats?
If you zoom into the article the physical bit is a bluff. They are concerned he’s not up to it “physically or mentally”... ie he’s thick as pig sh1t
Sounds like it is the memory they worry about. But reads like a massive hatchet job from "sources".
The YouGov poll shows the BP only taking 9% from Labour even if they give full backing to a second EU vote .
And yet some in the party continue to drone on about Labour leave seats . The Flints and the rest of the no deal enablers in Labour need to stop peddling myths .
Shows what Gauke knows - he may have survived this vote, but most Tories think voting Brexit Party is more conservative than voting Conservative, judging by the EP elections. Heck, based on the last 2 elections I'm more consistent in voting for them than most Tory members are.
I wouldn’t read across directly from the ESP elections. To a great extent it was expressing their view of May
He voted for the WA like the new leader Boris did, it would have been very odd to punish him for that.
So I think this shows that even in a much more remainy MP's constituency, the membership has a large number of vindictive no dealers in it. What is the proportion in more leavey MP seats?
If you zoom into the article the physical bit is a bluff. They are concerned he’s not up to it “physically or mentally”... ie he’s thick as pig sh1t
Sounds like it is the memory they worry about. But reads like a massive hatchet job from "sources".
Only read the first couple of paras on the tweet but wouldn’t be surprised
Excellent news that David Gauke - one of the best ministers, and a proper Conservative - hasn't been displaced by Arron Banks' Kipper entryists. The latter, though clearly inspired by Momentum, are a pale imitation of it.
And yet.. 187 members voting on this key issue... Not many, is it?
100 guys to pick a Tory MP, a few million pounds per quarter to rent the Labour Party. Is this the free market telling us the Labservatives are over?
The YouGov poll shows the BP only taking 9% from Labour even if they give full backing to a second EU vote .
And yet some in the party continue to drone on about Labour leave seats . The Flints and the rest of the no deal enablers in Labour need to stop peddling myths .
The YouGov poll also shows the LDs winning more Remainers than Labour even if Corbyn now backs EUref2, had Labour backed an EUref2 at the Peterborough by election however the Brexit Party would likely have gained the seat from them
Perhaps the entryists are neither as numerous nor as well organised as claimed. Something for punters to ponder.
If they can only get a portion* of 61 votes in a seat they have been targetting then the idea they'll sway the leadership vote seems extremely unlikely.
It was a massive shock to see Labour win there and the Lib Dems were miles behind in third place .
Although it voted heavily for Remain , any election before Brexit happens would likely see Lib Dems taking enough off Labour to allow the Tories to re take the seat even if they lose some to the BP.
Much more likely that LibDems would tactically vote Labour to stop the Tories winning!
Brilliant. The contrast with May is incredible. She wouldn't allow herself to do this interview, but is she had then those seagulls would be dealing with a strong and stable government which had a target of less than 10,000 seagulls.
In the event of a GE before Brexit happens (if it happens) I have to admit I'm torn on who to vote for.
I'm a natural Lib Dem, but I also live in the Huntingdon constituency, where there has been an enormous Conservative majority since about 1700BC. The current MP, Jonathan Djanogly, is one of the Conservative anti-Brexit troublemakers, and I can't see him signing up to Boris' no-Deal squad.
Despite the Conservatives getting a 20%+ majority in 2017 the various electoral models have it down as becoming a 2 way marginal (Baxter currently predicts 26.8% CON against 26.7% BRX) under current polling. The LDs could put on a strong showing, but I doubt they'd win, given what the constituency demographics are like, without a Tory meltdown.
Assuming Djanogly survives any deselection attempts I'm tempted to vote for him to keep Farage's mob out, but I also recognise that that could be taken as an endorsement for Boris' no Deal crash out. I guess the best vote would depend on who the candidates were at the time of an election, but it does illustrate the point that tactical voting isn't as straightforward as people like to think - do I stick with my principles and vote LD, or do I try to keep a Farageist out? It isn't always going to just be a case of LAB/LD/GRN swapping votes to keep the CON/BRX candidate out.
The fact that even in such a safe seat I'm having to think about these things does illustrate the problem that Johnson or Hunt would have in calling an election though. And of course, if Djanogly is forced out in favour of a more Brexit friendly MP then I will go LD as the main anti-Con/BRX vote in the seat.
This is a safe Tory seat. Do not take Baxter seriously! There is not a hope in hell of any other party winning there.
#WatsonOutNow is trending on twitter with 4172 tweets
Nobody has told them that the Deputy is a job for life then?
I only took a quick look, but it is amazing quite how many of them include an anti-semitic smear into their bleating about Watson.
Now I have very little time for him - his self-aggrandising posturing as some sort of moral crusader is distinctly off-putting. But Watson is right to stand up to the Cult. And they hate him because they know, deep down, he is right.
#WatsonOutNow is trending on twitter with 4172 tweets
Nobody has told them that the Deputy is a job for life then?
I only took a quick look, but it is amazing quite how many of them include an anti-semitic smear into their bleating about Watson.
Now I have very little time for him - his self-aggrandising posturing as some sort of moral crusader is distinctly off-putting. But Watson is right to stand up to the Cult. And they hate him because they know, deep down, he is right.
It is all "I stand with Chris". The Labour Party really has gone to shit.
The cult genuinely think he is some Tory plant to ensure that a true socialist government isn't possible.
But if and only if no other states do other things. (It's the Democrats 2016 fixation on the wrong states in reverse.)
Take Arizona. That's a state that has been gradually turning blue. A Senate seat flipped from Red to Blue in 2018.
If they take that, well, suddenly they don't need to win all three rustbelt states.
Second thing to remember: those rust bely states went REALLY BLUE in 2018. The Senate candidate in Wisconsin got more votes not just than Hillary in 2016, but than Trump.
I don't think there's ever been an occasion where a Senator at the midterms got more votes (in absolute terms) than the winning Presidential tally from two years earlier. It's unheard of.
And Pennsylvalia and Michigan also went really, really Blue in 2018.
#WatsonOutNow is trending on twitter with 4172 tweets
Nobody has told them that the Deputy is a job for life then?
I only took a quick look, but it is amazing quite how many of them include an anti-semitic smear into their bleating about Watson.
Now I have very little time for him - his self-aggrandising posturing as some sort of moral crusader is distinctly off-putting. But Watson is right to stand up to the Cult. And they hate him because they know, deep down, he is right.
Watson isn't Jewish...
It might be nasty to accuse him of things such as conspiring in the background, being some kind of puppeteer or other things can be racist tropes about Jewish people but that isn't anti semitism because he isn't Jewish.
In the same way people saying Gareth Bale looked like a monkey wasn't racist, a bit insulting/offensive but not racist.
Shows what Gauke knows - he may have survived this vote, but most Tories think voting Brexit Party is more conservative than voting Conservative, judging by the EP elections. Heck, based on the last 2 elections I'm more consistent in voting for them than most Tory members are.
Comments
I'm a natural Lib Dem, but I also live in the Huntingdon constituency, where there has been an enormous Conservative majority since about 1700BC. The current MP, Jonathan Djanogly, is one of the Conservative anti-Brexit troublemakers, and I can't see him signing up to Boris' no-Deal squad.
Despite the Conservatives getting a 20%+ majority in 2017 the various electoral models have it down as becoming a 2 way marginal (Baxter currently predicts 26.8% CON against 26.7% BRX) under current polling. The LDs could put on a strong showing, but I doubt they'd win, given what the constituency demographics are like, without a Tory meltdown.
Assuming Djanogly survives any deselection attempts I'm tempted to vote for him to keep Farage's mob out, but I also recognise that that could be taken as an endorsement for Boris' no Deal crash out. I guess the best vote would depend on who the candidates were at the time of an election, but it does illustrate the point that tactical voting isn't as straightforward as people like to think - do I stick with my principles and vote LD, or do I try to keep a Farageist out? It isn't always going to just be a case of LAB/LD/GRN swapping votes to keep the CON/BRX candidate out.
The fact that even in such a safe seat I'm having to think about these things does illustrate the problem that Johnson or Hunt would have in calling an election though. And of course, if Djanogly is forced out in favour of a more Brexit friendly MP then I will go LD as the main anti-Con/BRX vote in the seat.
Even if Corbyn backs EUref2 Remainers still split 40% LD, only 33% Labour and 11% Tory and 7% of Leave voters still back Labour
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/6b27q512s7/Labour Scenarios Results Internal 250619.pdf
Subconsciously?...
...thinks...
...oh, arse.
(slinks off shamefaced...
In which case No Deal it will have to be if diehard Remainers refuse to respect democracy (although if we get a Tory majority before October then the Withdrawal Agreement could pass with just the temporary CU for GB removed from the PD which the EU would agree)
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1144674251380842496
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1144670400594550790
And yet some in the party continue to drone on about Labour leave seats . The Flints and the rest of the no deal enablers in Labour need to stop peddling myths .
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1144709613704470528
https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1144736801837506560
If Trump has lost Florida he has almost certainly lost the EC anyway
* Not all of the 61 will be entryists.
edit: He's still wrong about No Deal though.
Now I have very little time for him - his self-aggrandising posturing as some sort of moral crusader is distinctly off-putting. But Watson is right to stand up to the Cult. And they hate him because they know, deep down, he is right.
The cult genuinely think he is some Tory plant to ensure that a true socialist government isn't possible.
But if and only if no other states do other things. (It's the Democrats 2016 fixation on the wrong states in reverse.)
Take Arizona. That's a state that has been gradually turning blue. A Senate seat flipped from Red to Blue in 2018.
If they take that, well, suddenly they don't need to win all three rustbelt states.
Second thing to remember: those rust bely states went REALLY BLUE in 2018. The Senate candidate in Wisconsin got more votes not just than Hillary in 2016, but than Trump.
I don't think there's ever been an occasion where a Senator at the midterms got more votes (in absolute terms) than the winning Presidential tally from two years earlier. It's unheard of.
And Pennsylvalia and Michigan also went really, really Blue in 2018.
Basically: 2020 is likely to be really close.
Arizona
Florida
Maine 2
Iowa (where the tariff war is really hurting)
North Carolina
I think Maine 2 and Arizona are both highly likely Dem pickups, even before we talk about the rustbelt.
It might be nasty to accuse him of things such as conspiring in the background, being some kind of puppeteer or other things can be racist tropes about Jewish people but that isn't anti semitism because he isn't Jewish.
In the same way people saying Gareth Bale looked like a monkey wasn't racist, a bit insulting/offensive but not racist.
This one thing though... well that's different, we don't want a second vote on the current deputy leader..