So after all that post debate hype little difference, still Biden first and Sanders second, just Harris and Warren closing in on Sanders and the rest of the field nowhere
There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.
The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.
The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .
No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .
The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.
And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.
To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.
The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.
Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.
Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.
As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.
And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
Different railway gauge!
Hey, Sunil, did you catch my post about Rachel?
I saw it just now - that Sunil's gone now, unfortunately, he's more of a Heidi fan
The key is to deliver Brexit by the end of October Deal or No Deal as that poll shows and Boris is committed to that, Hunt is not but instead open to further extension.
I do agree with those (I suspect you are one) who say agreeing to another extension from the EU would be the end for the Conservative Party in its current form.
The longer this goes on the more debilitating it gets for BOTH Conservatives and Labour who are currently losing nearly half their combined 2017 vote or put it another way, 26.5 million people voted either Conservative or Labour in 2017. Now, only 13.5 million would - the other 13 million have gone to TBP, LD and others.
Agreed further extension screws the Tories.
Yet as shown on the previous thread Corbyn Labour is now screwed regardless with Yougov today.
If Corbyn Labour continues to oppose EUref2 and sticks to Brexit plus Customs Union and Swinson's LDs back EUref2 then the LDs would be on 30%, Boris' Tories on 24%, the Brexit Party on 19% and Labour would fall to 4th on just 17%.
Even if Corbyn Labour backed EUref2 it would still only be second on 22%, tied with the LDs and behind the Boris led Tory Party on 26% with the Brexit Party on 20%.
Starmer does a bit better. If he ousts Corbyn and commits to EUref2 Labour scrape a 1% lead on 26% with the Tories on 25%, the Brexit Party on 20% and the LDs on 19%.
If Starmer as leader stuck to Labour's Brexit plus Customs Union policy though Labour again collapses to 4th on 17% with the LDs on 29% and the Tories on 24% and Brexit Party on 19%
Look, none of us have got any idea what will happen at the next GE. Relying on hypothetical polls, potentially 3 years out, with politics in such a state of flux is utterly pointless. Do you agree HYUFD?
Well this site relies on polls, if you don't like what one shows move onto the next one
No, most of us refer to polls, you rely on them. However, I have to admit that I really enjoy your contributions to the site - please don't stop. The fanatical devotion to Bozo would make a good routine at the Edinburgh Fringe.
There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.
The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.
The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .
No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .
The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.
And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.
To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.
The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.
Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.
Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.
As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.
And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
I thought the "United Kingdom" bit referred to the kingdoms of England and Scotland?
You are both right, Ireland joined the Union in 1801 to create the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland (Northern Ireland only from 1922), almost a century after the Kingdom of Scotland joined the Kingdom of England (and Wales) to create the Kingdom of Britain in the 1707 Act of Union.
We only became a UNITED Kingdom in 1801, not before.
Personally I would back Gauke and oppose a no confidence vote in him, he did at least vote for the Withdrawal Agreement even if he opposes No Deal.
However I backed the successful vote of no confidence in Dominic Grieve and Philip Lee by their Associations and back attempts to no confidence Sam Gyimah too as they all voted against the Withdrawal Agreement and for EUref2 and they tried to force further extension and block No Deal too and are clearly attempting to Stop Brexit outright.
They really are LDs, Gauke in my view is still a Tory even if one who wants clear blue water from the Brexit Party
The mystery remains how and why you ever came to vote to stay in the EU. Some of us have occasional moments of insanity; what explains your fleeting moment of sanity?
I did vote Remain (but would not have if it had required joining the Euro) but I also respect democracy unlike Grieve etc. However I would still prefer Brexit with a Deal to No Deal but I am now of the view that we have to leave Deal or No Deal in October now, we cannot extend again
There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.
The EU has to keep 27 countries happy but have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them so can drive a hard bargain.
The UK just has to worry about itself v the other country it’s doing a deal with .
No ones saying there’s a perfect system but in a world where the USA and China are fighting over trade and more a more countries are going into trade blocks size does matter .
The UK needs to resolve its trade with the EU first, that way it has a stronger bargaining position. Chasing deals when countries know you’re desperate isn’t going to end well.
And one thing that’s yet more Leave hypocrisy , they say no deal fine leave on WTO but if that’s so wonderful why do they keep bigging up a trade deal with the USA.
To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.
The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.
Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.
Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.
As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.
And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
I thought the "United Kingdom" bit referred to the kingdoms of England and Scotland?
You are both right, Ireland joined the Union in 1801 to create the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Irelanin in the 1707 Act of Union.
We only became a UNITED Kingdom in 1801, not before.
Correct, that is was made the shift from the Kingdom of Great Britain to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland
Oh how they laughed when Momentum took control of CLPs,.
Now it is biting them in the arse.
Trying to put some numbers to this.
I believe there are 160,000 Conservative members.
Spread over 650 constituencies that will be 246 members per constituency.
Do Conservative members have to affiliate to a constituency party ? If not then there will be fewer per constituency.
A Conservative stronghold such as Hertfordshire SW is likely to have more Conservative members than average.
Gauke is saying that 50 members have signed the motion.
Yes, all Conservative members belong to a constituency Association (or federation of multiple constituencies). I don't know the numbers but would guess that Herts SW would have around 700 to 1000 members. I'd be surprised if he loses, but I don't know the patch at all.
True for most, but I believe you are able to join centrally?
Yes, but then you are given membership of the relevant Association.
If he voted for it three times why is he even eligible for deselection? CCHQ should step in.
No deselection attempt for Francois, or Baker, who actually did obstruct Brexit by voting against the Withdrawal Agreement? How strange.
They all voted for Brexit, just to leave with no Deal in the indicative votes and against further extension. They voted for Brexit but only with No Deal and opposed the Withdrawal Agreement just as Gauke voted for Brexit but only with the Withdrawal Agreement but not No Deal.
Neither Francois or Gauke are in the same category as Grieve who has voted against any Brexit whatsoever and for EUref2
Ways in which "hard border" (Notwithstanding the sea!) already exists between NI and GB:
different railway gauge different political parties different abortion laws different gay marriage laws different number plates for vehicles
Sunil, Wales and Scotland also have different parties, and that Scotland is a separate jurisdiction with its own laws. Wales has its own language used in everyday speech. I would say "Go to Cardiff Station and listen to the Tannoy", but given your train experience I suspect you have already done so...
Ways in which "hard border" (Notwithstanding the sea!) already exists between NI and GB:
different railway gauge different political parties different abortion laws different gay marriage laws different number plates for vehicles
Sunil, Wales and Scotland also have different parties, and that Scotland is a separate jurisdiction with its own laws. Wales has its own language used in everyday speech. I would say "Go to Cardiff Station and listen to the Tannoy", but given your train experience I suspect you have already done so...
But Tories/Llafur/LibDems all stand in Englandistan, Scotland and Wales!
And Arriva Trains Wales is now replaced by an entity called Transport for London, er, I mean Wales (oops!)
Oh how they laughed when Momentum took control of CLPs,.
Now it is biting them in the arse.
Has any of the Labour MPs the left love to hate actually had a constituency motion passed against them yet?
A few critical motions i think but these do not amount to deselection. The formal Labour reselection process has not yet started, though it is about to.
Voting for the next LibDem leader will close on 23 July and the winner will be announced that evening. I'm guessing that Vince will make a speech that evening, congratulating the winner, and handing over the leadership. That seems straightforward.
For the Tories, the general membership of the party will elect the leader by postal ballot with the result to be announced on the morning of the 23rd. However Mrs May will continue to the 24th to handle PMQs and hand over on the afternoon of the 24th.
So Cable is the first leader to leave. He's at 1.9 on Betfair.
But hang on. Mrs May may continue for an extra day as PM but is that also as Leader? It's down to the Betfair interpretation of the rules.
EDIT: *In the event 2 or more leaders leave their respective positions on the same date then dead heat rules will apply*updated 26-06-19"
So Betfair have anticipated both leaders handing over on the 23rd. It doesn't matter what time on that date. Cable will almost certainly leave as leader on the 23rd. Will Mrs May? Probably but not as certainly as Cable. Cable is the value bet.
"The greatest trick Austria ever pulled was persuading the world that Hitler was German and Beethoven was Austrian..." "And Lederhosen" (Sigh) "...and Lederhosen was Swiss" Pause. "What about oompah bands" "Oh, fuck off..."
He voted for the WA like the new leader Boris did, it would have been very odd to punish him for that.
So I think this shows that even in a much more remainy MP's constituency, the membership has a large number of vindictive no dealers in it. What is the proportion in more leavey MP seats?
There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.
USA.
To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.
The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.
Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.
Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.
As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.
And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
I thought the "United Kingdom" bit referred to the kingdoms of England and Scotland?
You are both right, Ireland joined the Union in 1801 to create the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Irelanin in the 1707 Act of Union.
We only became a UNITED Kingdom in 1801, not before.
Correct, that is was made the shift from the Kingdom of Great Britain to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland
It’s surely only a matter of time before the Woke start objecting to the name of our own country on the grounds of its inherent patriarchy, isn’t it?
United Monarchdom sounds a bit like a dodgy budget airline though.
He voted for the WA like the new leader Boris did, it would have been very odd to punish him for that.
So I think this shows that even in a much more remainy MP's constituency, the membership has a large number of vindictive no dealers in it. What is the proportion in more leavey MP seats?
The fifty who signed the letter didn’t get many followers, then
So after all that post debate hype little difference, still Biden first and Sanders second, just Harris and Warren closing in on Sanders and the rest of the field nowhere
So after all that post debate hype little difference, still Biden first and Sanders second, just Harris and Warren closing in on Sanders and the rest of the field nowhere
Telegraph: George Osborne plots political comeback as he sets sights on marginal seat
The marginal seat of Kensington in West London is being touted as a potential route back into parliament
Good. Brave to stand in London though.
The Standard is a London-based paper...
Osborne's economic policy was an important contributor to the Brexit vote. A few decades of silence on his part would be welcome as he contemplates the wreckage and his part in creating it.
For the Tories, the general membership of the party will elect the leader by postal ballot with the result to be announced on the morning of the 23rd. However Mrs May will continue to the 24th to handle PMQs and hand over on the afternoon of the 24th.
So after all that post debate hype little difference, still Biden first and Sanders second, just Harris and Warren closing in on Sanders and the rest of the field nowhere
For the Tories, the general membership of the party will elect the leader by postal ballot with the result to be announced on the morning of the 23rd. However Mrs May will continue to the 24th to handle PMQs and hand over on the afternoon of the 24th.
There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.
USA.
To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.
The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.
Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.
Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.
As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.
And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
I thought the "United Kingdom" bit referred to the kingdoms of England and Scotland?
You are both right, Ireland joined the Union in 1801 to create the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Irelanin in the 1707 Act of Union.
We only became a UNITED Kingdom in 1801, not before.
Correct, that is was made the shift from the Kingdom of Great Britain to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland
It’s surely only a matter of time before the Woke start objecting to the name of our own country on the grounds of its inherent patriarchy, isn’t it?
United Monarchdom sounds a bit like a dodgy budget airline though.
So after all that post debate hype little difference, still Biden first and Sanders second, just Harris and Warren closing in on Sanders and the rest of the field nowhere
He had a bad night, but He is still a way ahead, and has plenty of fundraising cash behind him.
Finishes third in Iowa, moves to odds on favourite? 😉
Harris won't finish third in Iowa, Buttigieg will outperform there. His support is 100% white. South Carolina is the early one Harris needs to do well in.
Telegraph: George Osborne plots political comeback as he sets sights on marginal seat
The marginal seat of Kensington in West London is being touted as a potential route back into parliament
I have the seat down as a Lib Dem gain.
I’m looking forward to the individual seat markets getting up and running. With a GE imminent seems odd that we don’t have any. At least one bookie usually starts with 10 to 20 seats long before polling day.
So after all that post debate hype little difference, still Biden first and Sanders second, just Harris and Warren closing in on Sanders and the rest of the field nowhere
He had a bad night, but He is still a way ahead, and has plenty of fundraising cash behind him.
Of course - I have argued no differently, and he was one of the first candidates I put money on.
It’s rather that we are around some kind of inflection point where there is the potential for things to go pear shaped for him quite quickly. And that is looking slightly more likely than it was a day ago.
But I did my shorting of him at a bit better odds than now - and I’m waiting to buy back in.
So after all that post debate hype little difference, still Biden first and Sanders second, just Harris and Warren closing in on Sanders and the rest of the field nowhere
He had a bad night, but He is still a way ahead, and has plenty of fundraising cash behind him.
Finishes third in Iowa, moves to odds on favourite? 😉
Harris won't finish third in Iowa, Buttigieg will outperform there. His support is 100% white. South Carolina is the early one Harris needs to do well in.
Harris just needs to stay in the game till her home state, California, delivers her a bucketload of delegates on Super Tuesday, a mere four weeks after Iowa.
The thing to bear in mind through all this hype about debates is that the Iowa caucuses are still eight months off, in February next year.
There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.
USA.
To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.
The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.
Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.
Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.
As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.
And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
I thought the "United Kingdom" bit referred to the kingdoms of England and Scotland?
You are both right, Ireland joined the Union in 1801 to create the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Irelanin in the 1707 Act of Union.
We only became a UNITED Kingdom in 1801, not before.
Correct, that is was made the shift from the Kingdom of Great Britain to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland
It’s surely only a matter of time before the Woke start objecting to the name of our own country on the grounds of its inherent patriarchy, isn’t it?
United Monarchdom sounds a bit like a dodgy budget airline though.
And one local party likely to vote for Hunt, at least.
Don't think that follows, I am a Tory member and would have voted not to no confidence Gauke either and still ideally want to Leave with a Deal, however I will still be voting for Boris to Leave the EU Deal or No Deal in October and no further extension
Telegraph: George Osborne plots political comeback as he sets sights on marginal seat
The marginal seat of Kensington in West London is being touted as a potential route back into parliament
Good. Brave to stand in London though.
The Standard is a London-based paper...
Osborne's economic policy was an important contributor to the Brexit vote. A few decades of silence on his part would be welcome as he contemplates the wreckage and his part in creating it.
Osborne getting booed was my personal highlight of the 2012 Olympics. He needs to work on his resting bitch face if he's going to return to front line politics, IMHO.
For the Tories, the general membership of the party will elect the leader by postal ballot with the result to be announced on the morning of the 23rd. However Mrs May will continue to the 24th to handle PMQs and hand over on the afternoon of the 24th.
The Conservative Party is not taking any chances of Boris falling to a confidence vote on day one.
Parliament goes into recess at close of business on Thursday 25th
Spotted a link to something else in that Sun article. Apparently Boris will get rid of the "hated" milkshake tax. I must admit, it's the thing that sends me into a rage every morning...
There are always pros and cons with trade deals and the EU.
USA.
To paraphrase CvC trade is the continuation of politics by other means.
The advocates of a trade deal with the USA are admirers of the USA generally.
Likewise the supporters of close trade links with the EU.
Few of either are overly concerned whether these trade deals benefit the UK or not.
We are the EU. People who see the EU as 'them' are the problem.
Believe it or not everything outside this country is a 'them' to a greater or lesser extent and I suspect that's how every other country thinks as well.
Believe it or not the EU is here as well as there.
Thanks for confirming that the EU is there.
The UK is also 'there'. More English people have visited France than Northern Ireland.
Which helps to explain why Northern Ireland is viewed as not a 'proper' part of the UK.
As I said everything 'outside' is 'them' to a greater or lesser extent.
And not only does that work between countries but also sometimes within them.
Which is ironic as Northern Ireland is what defines the UK. Without it we'd just be Great Britain.
I thought the "United Kingdom" bit referred to the kingdoms of England and Scotland?
You are both right, Ireland joined the Union in 1801 to create the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Irelanin in the 1707 Act of Union.
We only became a UNITED Kingdom in 1801, not before.
Correct, that is was made the shift from the Kingdom of Great Britain to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland
It’s surely only a matter of time before the Woke start objecting to the name of our own country on the grounds of its inherent patriarchy, isn’t it?
United Monarchdom sounds a bit like a dodgy budget airline though.
So after all that post debate hype little difference, still Biden first and Sanders second, just Harris and Warren closing in on Sanders and the rest of the field nowhere
He had a bad night, but He is still a way ahead, and has plenty of fundraising cash behind him.
Finishes third in Iowa, moves to odds on favourite? 😉
Harris won't finish third in Iowa, Buttigieg will outperform there. His support is 100% white. South Carolina is the early one Harris needs to do well in.
The latest Iowa poll has Biden 27%, Warren 20%, Sanders 18%, Buttigieg 17%, Harris 4%
So Biden leads Iowa and South Carolina with Warren his main rival and Sanders leads in New Hampshire with Biden second and I doubt the debates have changed that much
Genuine question: if you were an entryist who had joined the Conservative Party in recent months to make mischief, who do you vote for? Jeremy Hunt has the smarts to get a deal + Brexit through, but Boris might be trusted to wait around for Oct 31 and crash out as the default. But, voting Boris might trigger GE and you get Corbyn, or worse Corbyn + Lib Dems and repeal.
For the Tories, the general membership of the party will elect the leader by postal ballot with the result to be announced on the morning of the 23rd. However Mrs May will continue to the 24th to handle PMQs and hand over on the afternoon of the 24th.
The Conservative Party is not taking any chances of Boris falling to a confidence vote on day one.
Parliament goes into recess at close of business on Thursday 25th
Spotted a link to something else in that Sun article. Apparently Boris will get rid of the "hated" milkshake tax. I must admit, it's the thing that sends me into a rage every morning...
Cheaper milkshakes? what more could a crowd of butterfingered Boris fans desire?
The latest Nanos poll in Canada has Trudeau's Liberals tied with the Conservative Party of Canada on 33% each, somewhat of a recovery for the Liberals after a recent scandal. The NDP are third on 17% with the Greens on 10% and the Bloc Quebecois on 5%
Genuine question: if you were an entryist who had joined the Conservative Party in recent months to make mischief, who do you vote for? Jeremy Hunt has the smarts to get a deal + Brexit through, but Boris might be trusted to wait around for Oct 31 and crash out as the default. But, voting Boris might trigger GE and you get Corbyn, or worse Corbyn + Lib Dems and repeal.
Tricky one.
I would think the stereotypical entryist is someone who does not want a deal and sees Boris as a wait to ensure no deal, even though officially his plan is also to get a deal. As for triggering a GE and risking a repeal, again it seems those most likely to be entryists are those who supported the hold outs on the WA even though those hold outs were told not accepting it might lead (eventually) to no Brexit at all. So I don't think that risk worries entryists, who in any case probably think the Tories would easily win, because BREXIT and Boris charisma.
In that, they share a great deal in common with most Tory members as well.
I never really had huge dislike of Osborne, but he never seemed to be personally popular. Granted, being Chancellor does not make that easy in a time of austerity. But I'm not sure he is a great choice in a marginal seat as a result. Although let's be honest, if there is a GE anytime soon, and given the likely outcomes before us, there may not be any marginal seats for the Tories in London at the moment.
"The greatest trick Austria ever pulled was persuading the world that Hitler was German and Beethoven was Austrian..." "And Lederhosen" (Sigh) "...and Lederhosen was Swiss" Pause. "What about oompah bands" "Oh, fuck off..."
It was a massive shock to see Labour win there and the Lib Dems were miles behind in third place .
Although it voted heavily for Remain , any election before Brexit happens would likely see Lib Dems taking enough off Labour to allow the Tories to re take the seat even if they lose some to the BP.
Genuine question: if you were an entryist who had joined the Conservative Party in recent months to make mischief, who do you vote for? Jeremy Hunt has the smarts to get a deal + Brexit through, but Boris might be trusted to wait around for Oct 31 and crash out as the default. But, voting Boris might trigger GE and you get Corbyn, or worse Corbyn + Lib Dems and repeal.
Tricky one.
I would think the stereotypical entryist is someone who does not want a deal and sees Boris as a wait to ensure no deal, even though officially his plan is also to get a deal. As for triggering a GE and risking a repeal, again it seems those most likely to be entryists are those who supported the hold outs on the WA even though those hold outs were told not accepting it might lead (eventually) to no Brexit at all. So I don't think that risk worries entryists, who in any case probably think the Tories would easily win, because BREXIT and Boris charisma.
In that, they share a great deal in common with most Tory members as well.
Yes, my feeling is that they would vote for Boris. Either "for the lulz" or because they feel that he can be manipulated / trusted to go for the wait.
I wonder if Boris would do some kind of deal with BXP if there was a VONC before Oct 31? Either before a GE (offer Farage some sort of consultation role to try to encourage BXP to back CON) or after a GE if BXP win seats?
I never really had huge dislike of Osborne, but he never seemed to be personally popular. Granted, being Chancellor does not make that easy in a time of austerity. But I'm not sure he is a great choice in a marginal seat as a result. Although let's be honest, if there is a GE anytime soon, and given the likely outcomes before us, there may not be any marginal seats for the Tories in London at the moment.
Even with their current dire polling figures, Baxter predicts 8 Con seats in London (Lab 51 seats, LD 11 seats, Bxp 3 seats):
Orpington Old Bexley and Sidcup Beckenham Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Chelsea and Fulham Bromley and Chislehurst Croydon South Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris)
Genuine question: if you were an entryist who had joined the Conservative Party in recent months to make mischief, who do you vote for? Jeremy Hunt has the smarts to get a deal + Brexit through, but Boris might be trusted to wait around for Oct 31 and crash out as the default. But, voting Boris might trigger GE and you get Corbyn, or worse Corbyn + Lib Dems and repeal.
Tricky one.
The Deal and then FTA talks does not go through without a Tory majority, so it is either No Deal which Boris might do on October 31st but not Hunt or a Tory majority in a snap election to get Brexit through with a Deal before then.
The safest way to secure Brexit given Parliament won't vote for the Withdrawal Agreement as is or harder and might try and stop No Deal is therefore a general election and aim for a Boris majority. If a Labour plus LD plus SNP alliance wins that general election for EUref2 or SM and CU BINO so be it, it would be a weak government with the Boris led Tories likely still winning most seats in England and united behind Leave in opposition
One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.
Isn’t it that the deals will be more aligned with the UK’s interests? The EU have to negotiate on behalf of many countries.
No, I distinctly remember being assured by numerous Leavers that the EU hadn't struck deals with Japan and Mercosur and Britain could by itself. Those hypothetical trade deals are years away while there are deals on the table from which Britain could already benefit.
Still, let them eat blue passports.
Those were specifically given as examples? Japan, maybe, but Mercosur? In any case, just because the EU has a deal, doesn’t mean it is aligned with the UK’s interests. I doubt the EU only has the UK in mind when signing these.
It might be to do with the fact that protecting the U.K. beef industry is a lower priority for the EU at the moment
The anime has pulled in 300 million yuan (4.7 billion yen, or $44 million) as of June 28.
For its June 21 premiere in Chinese cities, including Shanghai and Beijing, the film gained about 54 million yuan at the box office, according to the Xinjingbao newspaper and other media.
The figure tripled that for Walt Disney Co.’s “Toy Story 4,” which premiered on the same day....
One wonders in which bits of the world the Leavers think they are going to negotiate these hypothetical trade deals that the EU hasn't managed.
The devil will be in the detail here. There was/is a lot of resistance because of agriculture, especially beef over a deal with Mercosur from 6 EU countries.
Also it is worth noting that France still has not ratified CETA because is is still worried about Canadian Beef flooding the French market, CETA is in operation but in a provisional mode.
Are you sure about the beef? Most of the Mercosur countries have not used all their tariff free beef quotas with the EU for some time.
If I wasn't very busy, I'd post a link.
ASF is going to rip the EU pork industry to pieces (idiotic Belgium hunters smuggled some infected boar in and released them into the wild).
We need all the sources of meat based protein we can get right now.
If he voted for it three times why is he even eligible for deselection? CCHQ should step in.
Amazing . He voted with the government whip 3 times , his issue is with no deal . A lot of support is being given even by Leave Tories but it’s unlikely to make much difference . I’d be shocked if he survives that vote of confidence .
If May had balls she’d suspend the CLP on suspicion of entryism
Excellent news that David Gauke - one of the best ministers, and a proper Conservative - hasn't been displaced by Arron Banks' Kipper entryists. The latter, though clearly inspired by Momentum, are a pale imitation of it.
And yet.. 187 members voting on this key issue... Not many, is it?
Excellent news that David Gauke - one of the best ministers, and a proper Conservative - hasn't been displaced by Aaron Banks' Kipper entryists. The latter, though clearly inspired by Momentum, are a pale imitation of it.
And yet.. 187 members voting on this key issue... Not many, is it?
187 members in a Con-held seat? Sounds petrifying.
If he voted for it three times why is he even eligible for deselection? CCHQ should step in.
Amazing . He voted with the government whip 3 times , his issue is with no deal . A lot of support is being given even by Leave Tories but it’s unlikely to make much difference . I’d be shocked if he survives that vote of confidence .
If May had balls she’d suspend the CLP on suspicion of entryism
Tories have learnt nothing from Labour and Jezza and left entryism.
Looks like they are about to be swallowed by the Blue Momentum Death Cult.
Every day that passes it seems we are more likely to have a massive realignment in politics.
Genuine question: if you were an entryist who had joined the Conservative Party in recent months to make mischief, who do you vote for? Jeremy Hunt has the smarts to get a deal + Brexit through, but Boris might be trusted to wait around for Oct 31 and crash out as the default. But, voting Boris might trigger GE and you get Corbyn, or worse Corbyn + Lib Dems and repeal.
Tricky one.
These people are thick and obsessed by unicorn dreams.
Comments
different railway gauge
different political parties
different abortion laws
different gay marriage laws
different number plates for vehicles
Different cricket teams
Different churches
Neither Francois or Gauke are in the same category as Grieve who has voted against any Brexit whatsoever and for EUref2
And Arriva Trains Wales is now replaced by an entity called Transport for London, er, I mean Wales (oops!)
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132776540
Close between Cable and May.
Voting for the next LibDem leader will close on 23 July and the winner will be announced that evening. I'm guessing that Vince will make a speech that evening, congratulating the winner, and handing over the leadership. That seems straightforward.
For the Tories, the general membership of the party will elect the leader by postal ballot with the result to be announced on the morning of the 23rd. However Mrs May will continue to the 24th to handle PMQs and hand over on the afternoon of the 24th.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9374166/may-to-stay-one-extra-day/
So Cable is the first leader to leave. He's at 1.9 on Betfair.
But hang on. Mrs May may continue for an extra day as PM but is that also as Leader? It's down to the Betfair interpretation of the rules.
EDIT: *In the event 2 or more leaders leave their respective positions on the same date then dead heat rules will apply*updated 26-06-19"
So Betfair have anticipated both leaders handing over on the 23rd. It doesn't matter what time on that date. Cable will almost certainly leave as leader on the 23rd. Will Mrs May? Probably but not as certainly as Cable. Cable is the value bet.
https://www.cityam.com/uk-and-switzerland-strike-post-brexit-continuity-agreement/
"Shoot him, Jim! I'm the real Boris!"
"No, Jim! He's the fake Boris!"
"Prove it"
"I know my wife's birthday, it's February 3rd!"
A shot rings out. A body falls to the floor
"Why did you shoot him?! The birthday was right!"
"Boris, you've never remembered a birthday in your life...
Should you? No.
Suck it up Banks and the rest of the hate mob !
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1144703704672735233?s=19
https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/1144705656886366208?s=21
"And Lederhosen"
(Sigh) "...and Lederhosen was Swiss"
Pause.
"What about oompah bands"
"Oh, fuck off..."
The Oxfam story looks disturbing, not least after the self righteous defences of it that were seen when they were getting crap before. He voted for the WA like the new leader Boris did, it would have been very odd to punish him for that.
So I think this shows that even in a much more remainy MP's constituency, the membership has a large number of vindictive no dealers in it. What is the proportion in more leavey MP seats?
The marginal seat of Kensington in West London is being touted as a potential route back into parliament
United Monarchdom sounds a bit like a dodgy budget airline though.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/28/joe-biden-fundraising-2020-1389857
He is still a way ahead, and has plenty of fundraising cash behind him.
LD 28%
Lab 26%
Con 23%
Bxp 12%
Grn 8%
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/area_lond.html
It’s rather that we are around some kind of inflection point where there is the potential for things to go pear shaped for him quite quickly. And that is looking slightly more likely than it was a day ago.
But I did my shorting of him at a bit better odds than now - and I’m waiting to buy back in.
The thing to bear in mind through all this hype about debates is that the Iowa caucuses are still eight months off, in February next year.
It will help with our EU reapplication.
He needs to work on his resting bitch face if he's going to return to front line politics, IMHO.
LD 1/5
Con 8/1
Bxp 9/1
Lab 100/1
PC 150/1
Grn 200/1
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LqfkQsESsQYMT7dpYqsRX4RRcJoX_uTjq-WgUOJPVh8/edit?usp=sharing
The latest New Hampshire poll has Sanders 28%, Biden 24%, Warren 21%, Buttigieg 14%, Harris 3%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Hampshire_Democratic_primary
The latest South Carolina poll has Biden 39%, Warren 15%, Sanders 13%, Buttigieg 11%, Harris 9%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_South_Carolina_Democratic_primary
So Biden leads Iowa and South Carolina with Warren his main rival and Sanders leads in New Hampshire with Biden second and I doubt the debates have changed that much
Tricky one.
https://web.archive.org/web/20190624221158/https://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Political-Package-2019-06-21-FR.pdf
In that, they share a great deal in common with most Tory members as well.
Next Scottish Parliament general election - most seats (Shadsy)
SNP 1/4
Con 7/1
Lab 7/1
LD 50/1
Grn 200/1
It was a massive shock to see Labour win there and the Lib Dems were miles behind in third place .
Although it voted heavily for Remain , any election before Brexit happens would likely see Lib Dems taking enough off Labour to allow the Tories to re take the seat even if they lose some to the BP.
I wonder if Boris would do some kind of deal with BXP if there was a VONC before Oct 31? Either before a GE (offer Farage some sort of consultation role to try to encourage BXP to back CON) or after a GE if BXP win seats?
Orpington
Old Bexley and Sidcup
Beckenham
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
Chelsea and Fulham
Bromley and Chislehurst
Croydon South
Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/area_lond.html
The safest way to secure Brexit given Parliament won't vote for the Withdrawal Agreement as is or harder and might try and stop No Deal is therefore a general election and aim for a Boris majority. If a Labour plus LD plus SNP alliance wins that general election for EUref2 or SM and CU BINO so be it, it would be a weak government with the Boris led Tories likely still winning most seats in England and united behind Leave in opposition
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201906280044.html
Eighteen years after its release in Japan, Hayao Miyazaki’s smash hit “Spirited Away” is now the box-office leader in China.
The anime has pulled in 300 million yuan (4.7 billion yen, or $44 million) as of June 28.
For its June 21 premiere in Chinese cities, including Shanghai and Beijing, the film gained about 54 million yuan at the box office, according to the Xinjingbao newspaper and other media.
The figure tripled that for Walt Disney Co.’s “Toy Story 4,” which premiered on the same day....
We need all the sources of meat based protein we can get right now.
Constituency SNP 42% (-4.5%), Tories 20% (-2%), Labour 16% (-6.6%), LD 11% (+3.2%), Brexit Party 7% (+7%)
Regional List SNP 39% (-2.7%), Tories 20% (-2.9%), Labour 16% (-3.1%), LD 10% (+4.8%), Greens 7% (+0.4%), Brexit Party 6% (+6%)
https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/ST-Tables-for-publication-200619.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Scottish_Parliament_election
And yet.. 187 members voting on this key issue... Not many, is it?
There is no compromise in revolution as Malcolm X said.
Looks like they are about to be swallowed by the Blue Momentum Death Cult.
Every day that passes it seems we are more likely to have a massive realignment in politics.