politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the CON race continues to be about character them it might
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One of the oddest aspects of the Tories' perception of Johnson is their blind faith in him as a sure fire election winner. A man who cowers in a corner rather than engage with his opponents. who is unable to close down a fairly minor story about his private life (still very much live on day 4), and who is obviously uncomfortable when faced with even the easiest and most obvious questions about himself and his policies. How could he possibly come through a 6-week general election campaign?Mysticrose said:I think a psychological profile of Boris Johnson proves rather enlightening.
If you watch his body language and verbal language down the years, you will see the affected bluster which is a defence mechanism. Hitherto it has proved remarkably good deception. People have often fallen for it. They find it charming.
Two days into the leadership contest and he's coming under intense scrutiny. The facade, the charade even, is breaking.
Underneath is someone who is as much of a mess as the back of his car.0 -
I think the charm thing is key, particularly the upper class variety to which the English seem particularly in thrall. Waugh, no stranger to being dazzled by posho charm himself, had it right.Mysticrose said:I think a psychological profile of Boris Johnson proves rather enlightening.
If you watch his body language and verbal language down the years, you will see the affected bluster which is a defence mechanism. Hitherto it has proved remarkably good deception. People have often fallen for it. They find it charming.
Two days into the leadership contest and he's coming under intense scrutiny. The facade, the charade even, is breaking.
Underneath is someone who is as much of a mess as the back of his car.
“Charm is the great English blight. It does not exist outside these damp islands. It spots and kills anything it touches. It kills love; it kills art; I greatly fear, my dear Charles, it has killed you.”0 -
There appears to be a direct link between those individuals who go on about the primacy of democracy and the evils of Europe and those individuals who support first past the post voting, which seems like the tyranny of the minority (and potentially more so than ever now). It’s as if it’s all about Europhobia.nichomar said:
Because there aren’t any so you can’t list them.Philip_Thompson said:
No I will give you a lecture about freedom. Read 1984 to start with.nichomar said:
I would have some sympathy for that view if we were subjugated into accepting terrible rules that were ruining our lives, which ones are ruining your life? Please don’t give me a lecture about freedom just a list of the things which have made your life intolerablePhilip_Thompson said:
Exactly!OblitusSumMe said:
So, in the dark nights ahead, I can say to myself, "this is all worth it, because now we are not subject to Qualified Majority Voting for Sport and Culture."Philip_Thompson said:
The Lisbon Treaty. Which should have had a referendum but Tony Blair and Gordon Brown reneged on that manifesto commitment due to knowing they would lose it. That started the insurmountable pressure that led to the referendum that was won by LeaveOblitusSumMe said:
What's the equivalent to the invasion of Poland to justify the hardship that we will endure and overcome?HYUFD said:
I'm sure that will help. Thanks.
We will be able to say that this is all worth it as we can elect and hold responsible those who set our laws whether sport and culture or otherwise. An ancient liberty our ancestors fought a d died for ... but in today's culture it seems maybe having some chlorine that we literally drink in our tap water on chicken is a bridge too far.
It doesn't matter one jot whether laws are terrible or good. Our liberties are important. I would rather have an incompetent elected PM we could replace than a competent "benign dictator" that we couldn't.1 -
What is the past record of polls on leadership elections? I know YouGov 2015 Labour was pretty accurate.IanB2 said:
Except that said polling has produced figures for the average age of Tory members ranging between 57 and 72. Which suggests accuracy as a problem.isam said:
I’m sure I’ve recently seen headlines or tweets saying ‘The PM is going to be chosen by a group of 73 year old men when the average age of a voter is 46” or some such, and the memberships of each branch can’t be that hard to find I’d have thoughtIanB2 said:
I don't think the Tory party publishes this information. There have been some polls used to inform various semi-academic studies, but there must be risks in using one poll's findings to weight another?isam said:
Apart from class, aren’t the numbers available for the categories in your last paragraph?IanB2 said:isam said:
A politically engaged.Pulpstar said:
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iircAlastairMeeks said:
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.isam said:
?AlastairMeeks said:
T.SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
On the other hand, it will be more difficult to adjust for any biases in age/sex/class/geography etc. because there isn't data on the distribution of the base population of members.
My take is that polling of smaller, private clubs should be more accurate than that of a country, mainly because of the politically engaged factor
The polling is likely to be "right" because there is lots of anecdotal evidence that Tory members are breaking heavily in favour of Boris.
I am not however confident that if we were looking at a close run contest, we could put much faith in these membership polls.0 -
There is no polity called Europe. That is a complete myth.williamglenn said:
We do have a say via QMV in the council (and via directly elected MEPs in the parliament). We have a polity called Europe.Philip_Thompson said:I've spent more time in Melbourne than I have Vienna. We don't share our laws with Melbourne.
What is undemocratic is those who pretend they don't want "a country called Europe" with all the accountability that comes with it but then are happy with having the laws set like that. Given Vienna is literally another country I'm not comfortable having our laws set by their politicians without our say via QMV.
If we want to be in a country called Europe then that is reasonable. But it should be by choice and genuinely made.0 -
The indicative confidence motion, which is in effect what you suggest, might be a constitutional innovation too far even for Speaker Bercow. However, if it is allowed, why would Conservative MPs, more than half of whom voted for Boris as recently as last week, suddenly decide they would rather support Hunt or Gove or Andrea Leadsom? Its intention is so transparent you'd still have Boris backers headed for the dentist on Labour's no confidence motion.Barnesian said:
Interesting. Suppose Mrs May immediately introduces an amendable business motion to test that Johnson has the confidence of the House and Corbyn interrupts with a VONC in Mrs May's government. What takes precedence? I guess the Speaker decides.DecrepitJohnL said:
As previously discussed, I cannot see this happening though I concede it is technically possible. I am not sure what happens with the FTPA timetable if things go as you suggest and Theresa May's government loses the confidence vote Labour would table just before the recess starts.Barnesian said:Johnson is 1.25-1,26 as next Tory Leader, and 1.27-1.28 as next PM.
These are much too close together. There is a gap between Johnson being chosen by the Tory Membership and Johnson being proposed to the Queen by Mrs May as commanding the confidence of the House. There may already be conversations about this between the Queen and Mrs May at the weekly audiences.
I can Mrs May stepping done as Tory leader in late July but staying on as PM during the recess. It will be an interesting conference season!
1) 22/7 Boris becomes party leader; May stays PM; Labour tables confidence motion
2) 23/7 100 of the 160 MPs who voted for Boris visit John Major's dentist so government loses confidence vote
3) 23/7 FTPA 14-day countdown starts
4) 25/7 House rises for summer recess till 3/9
5) I guess the Commons could not rise until the 14 days is up (or HMG wins a confidence vote) but the FTPA, to this non-lawyer, seems silent on the matter.
However, because May hanging on to keep Boris out would precipitate civil war in the party and a general election, I really cannot see it happening. If you think it will, then back Jeremy Corbyn to be next prime minister.
I think in this circumstance, Corbyn's VONC would get precedence but would lose because Mrs May's business motion, that would follow, would give Parliament the opportunity to choose the next PM and government.0 -
I think it's a waste of time to try to explain to people who instinctively and uncritically support the EU, what the EU actually is. The myths are much more comforting.TOPPING said:
I think it's a waste of time to try to explain to people who viscerally and emotionally dislike the EU what the EU actually is. The myths are much more comforting.williamglenn said:
We do have a say via QMV in the council (and via directly elected MEPs in the parliament). We have a polity called Europe.Philip_Thompson said:I've spent more time in Melbourne than I have Vienna. We don't share our laws with Melbourne.
What is undemocratic is those who pretend they don't want "a country called Europe" with all the accountability that comes with it but then are happy with having the laws set like that. Given Vienna is literally another country I'm not comfortable having our laws set by their politicians without our say via QMV.
If we want to be in a country called Europe then that is reasonable. But it should be by choice and genuinely made.
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No there are but because it is moot. We are debating our constitutional framework not individual laws. What matters here is who decides our laws and how, not the merits of individual ones.nichomar said:
Because there aren’t any so you can’t list them.Philip_Thompson said:
No I will give you a lecture about freedom. Read 1984 to start with.nichomar said:
I would have some sympathy for that view if we were subjugated into accepting terrible rules that were ruining our lives, which ones are ruining your life? Please don’t give me a lecture about freedom just a list of the things which have made your life intolerablePhilip_Thompson said:
Exactly!OblitusSumMe said:
So, in the dark nights ahead, I can say to myself, "this is all worth it, because now we are not subject to Qualified Majority Voting for Sport and Culture."Philip_Thompson said:
The Lisbon Treaty. Which should have had a referendum but Tony Blair and Gordon Brown reneged on that manifesto commitment due to knowing they would lose it. That started the insurmountable pressure that led to the referendum that was won by LeaveOblitusSumMe said:
What's the equivalent to the invasion of Poland to justify the hardship that we will endure and overcome?HYUFD said:
I'm sure that will help. Thanks.
We will be able to say that this is all worth it as we can elect and hold responsible those who set our laws whether sport and culture or otherwise. An ancient liberty our ancestors fought a d died for ... but in today's culture it seems maybe having some chlorine that we literally drink in our tap water on chicken is a bridge too far.
It doesn't matter one jot whether laws are terrible or good. Our liberties are important. I would rather have an incompetent elected PM we could replace than a competent "benign dictator" that we couldn't.
There are multiple laws at the EU and at the UK level that I may like and you may dislike. Or vice-versa. That is part of having a democracy we a get our say and sometimes we dontd agree. What matters here is HOW we pass laws and who is held accountable.1 -
I don't think she was banned because of her views. She said things that were a potential legal threat to the site owners if I remember correctly and was warned several times.isam said:
Who said she predicted he’d win?Alistair said:
She didn't predict Trump would win. She just posted anti Hillary conspiracy theories.isam said:
Exactly what I was thinking re Plato. Stuck to her guns on Trump.Philip_Thompson said:
I normally disagree with HYUFD, and think his certainty in the future is infuriating and a broken clock is right twice a day ... but with Boris he deserves some credit in the same way the late Plato deserved credit for seeing in America what was happening with Trump.isam said:Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
She posted stuff that indicated it wasn’t as cut and dried as the accepted narrative suggested, which was true. And she was hounded off the site as a consequence. She had made it clear that she lived in isolation, and her frequency of posting made it obvious the site was a big part of her life.
She did post elsewhere in vast volume as well.
An earlier post said she was right about Trump. In what way was she right about Trump? Is Trump any different to what we expected?
As IanB2 said the huge benefit was the insight to the Alt-Right world which I must admit was an eye opener for me and a very welcome insight.0 -
I don't remember when they had a piece by three SNP mps/msps (did one of them hold the pencil while the other two puzzled over the spelling of the really big words?) saying Nicola Sturgeon would swat the Cons like a midge in Scotland.TheScreamingEagles said:
A bit like the National?Theuniondivvie said:
'Boris Johnson will swat the SNP like a midge in ScotlandCarlottaVance said:The Borisgraph is hilarious - some choice offerings:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/21/boris-could-unlock-backstop-confound-dublins-anglophobic-elite
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/23/boris-johnson-will-swat-snp-like-midge-scotland
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/22/brexiteers-risk-boris-betrayal-unless-play-ferocious-final-hand
By Colin Clark, Gordon MP. Douglas Ross, Moray MP, Ross Thomson, Aberdeen South MP'
It's just one extended party political flyer for the Boris party now, isn't it?
Of course it would have been superfluous, because she has, repeatedly.0 -
Wouldn't disagree. Very few people on here uncritically support the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think it's a waste of time to try to explain to people who instinctively and uncritically support the EU, what the EU actually is. The myths are much more comforting.TOPPING said:
I think it's a waste of time to try to explain to people who viscerally and emotionally dislike the EU what the EU actually is. The myths are much more comforting.williamglenn said:
We do have a say via QMV in the council (and via directly elected MEPs in the parliament). We have a polity called Europe.Philip_Thompson said:I've spent more time in Melbourne than I have Vienna. We don't share our laws with Melbourne.
What is undemocratic is those who pretend they don't want "a country called Europe" with all the accountability that comes with it but then are happy with having the laws set like that. Given Vienna is literally another country I'm not comfortable having our laws set by their politicians without our say via QMV.
If we want to be in a country called Europe then that is reasonable. But it should be by choice and genuinely made.0 -
Who would want to live in a world without charm.Theuniondivvie said:
I think the charm thing is key, particularly the upper class variety to which the English seem particularly in thrall. Waugh, no stranger to being dazzled by posho charm himself, had it right.Mysticrose said:I think a psychological profile of Boris Johnson proves rather enlightening.
If you watch his body language and verbal language down the years, you will see the affected bluster which is a defence mechanism. Hitherto it has proved remarkably good deception. People have often fallen for it. They find it charming.
Two days into the leadership contest and he's coming under intense scrutiny. The facade, the charade even, is breaking.
Underneath is someone who is as much of a mess as the back of his car.
“Charm is the great English blight. It does not exist outside these damp islands. It spots and kills anything it touches. It kills love; it kills art; I greatly fear, my dear Charles, it has killed you.”
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While I agree with your last sentence, I strongly disagree with the first.Philip_Thompson said:
We aren't wasting the time. What was wasting time was bed blocker May clinging to office when she couldn't command Parliament. She should have lost the confidence vote last December or January. Now we are grappling with the divisions.Cyclefree said:Meanwhile somewhere in Brussels Donald Tusk is sitting at his desk, head in hands, quietly muttering to himself: “What part of ‘Don’t waste this time’ did the British not understand?”
We are wasting time. We are still believing in fantasy options rather than engaging with reality. It is unforgivably self-indulgent and frivolous.0 -
Who would want to live in a world ruled by it?Xtrain said:
Who would want to live in a world without charm.Theuniondivvie said:
I think the charm thing is key, particularly the upper class variety to which the English seem particularly in thrall. Waugh, no stranger to being dazzled by posho charm himself, had it right.Mysticrose said:I think a psychological profile of Boris Johnson proves rather enlightening.
If you watch his body language and verbal language down the years, you will see the affected bluster which is a defence mechanism. Hitherto it has proved remarkably good deception. People have often fallen for it. They find it charming.
Two days into the leadership contest and he's coming under intense scrutiny. The facade, the charade even, is breaking.
Underneath is someone who is as much of a mess as the back of his car.
“Charm is the great English blight. It does not exist outside these damp islands. It spots and kills anything it touches. It kills love; it kills art; I greatly fear, my dear Charles, it has killed you.”0 -
Yes, I am beginning to wonder this. At least May appeared in public and just said 'strong and stable'. Boris is in hiding it seems.anothernick said:
One of the oddest aspects of the Tories' perception of Johnson is their blind faith in him as a sure fire election winner. A man who cowers in a corner rather than engage with his opponents. who is unable to close down a fairly minor story about his private life (still very much live on day 4), and who is obviously uncomfortable when faced with even the easiest and most obvious questions about himself and his policies. How could he possibly come through a 6-week general election campaign?Mysticrose said:I think a psychological profile of Boris Johnson proves rather enlightening.
If you watch his body language and verbal language down the years, you will see the affected bluster which is a defence mechanism. Hitherto it has proved remarkably good deception. People have often fallen for it. They find it charming.
Two days into the leadership contest and he's coming under intense scrutiny. The facade, the charade even, is breaking.
Underneath is someone who is as much of a mess as the back of his car.0 -
I'm on the YouGov panel. They know I'm a party member yet I haven't been polled re the leadership contest.
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Quite.TOPPING said:
Wouldn't disagree. Very few people on here uncritically support the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think it's a waste of time to try to explain to people who instinctively and uncritically support the EU, what the EU actually is. The myths are much more comforting.TOPPING said:
I think it's a waste of time to try to explain to people who viscerally and emotionally dislike the EU what the EU actually is. The myths are much more comforting.williamglenn said:
We do have a say via QMV in the council (and via directly elected MEPs in the parliament). We have a polity called Europe.Philip_Thompson said:I've spent more time in Melbourne than I have Vienna. We don't share our laws with Melbourne.
What is undemocratic is those who pretend they don't want "a country called Europe" with all the accountability that comes with it but then are happy with having the laws set like that. Given Vienna is literally another country I'm not comfortable having our laws set by their politicians without our say via QMV.
If we want to be in a country called Europe then that is reasonable. But it should be by choice and genuinely made.
Last time I was involved in a project with EU funding I was horrified by how wasteful, inefficient, and divorced from real-world imperatives it was. So much so that I'd rank the EU as number 4 on the wasteful scale, after local government (3), the UK government (2), and Big Corporate (1).
Which is why I voted to Remain.0 -
HY has been telling us for ages that Boris is the most popular next leader among Tory members. Which is hardly news: I have mixed with enough of them over the years to know that is true.Philip_Thompson said:
I normally disagree with HYUFD, and think his certainty in the future is infuriating and a broken clock is right twice a day ... but with Boris he deserves some credit in the same way the late Plato deserved credit for seeing in America what was happening with Trump.isam said:Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
What changed is the attitude of the MPs. There was plenty of evidence up until this year's elections that a good majority of them wouldnt touch Boris as leader with a bargepole, and the mechanism of their contest appeared designed to allow the MPs to lock him out if they wanted to. That Boris himself felt the same is evidenced by his stooges' somewhat desperate proposals to change the system to allow more people through to the member ballot, earlier in the year.
Now the MPs are in a panic about their futures, they are willing to make a gamble that not that long ago they would have refused.
Whether HY specifically predicted that the MPs would come round, I cannot recall. Anyone could have told us the members liked him.
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Germans manage.....Xtrain said:
Who would want to live in a world without charm.Theuniondivvie said:
I think the charm thing is key, particularly the upper class variety to which the English seem particularly in thrall. Waugh, no stranger to being dazzled by posho charm himself, had it right.Mysticrose said:I think a psychological profile of Boris Johnson proves rather enlightening.
If you watch his body language and verbal language down the years, you will see the affected bluster which is a defence mechanism. Hitherto it has proved remarkably good deception. People have often fallen for it. They find it charming.
Two days into the leadership contest and he's coming under intense scrutiny. The facade, the charade even, is breaking.
Underneath is someone who is as much of a mess as the back of his car.
“Charm is the great English blight. It does not exist outside these damp islands. It spots and kills anything it touches. It kills love; it kills art; I greatly fear, my dear Charles, it has killed you.”0 -
SOP for Lynton Crosby. Hide to protect your lead. He did the same with Cameron ducking the debates in 2015.rottenborough said:
Yes, I am beginning to wonder this. At least May appeared in public and just said 'strong and stable'. Boris is in hiding it seems.anothernick said:
One of the oddest aspects of the Tories' perception of Johnson is their blind faith in him as a sure fire election winner. A man who cowers in a corner rather than engage with his opponents. who is unable to close down a fairly minor story about his private life (still very much live on day 4), and who is obviously uncomfortable when faced with even the easiest and most obvious questions about himself and his policies. How could he possibly come through a 6-week general election campaign?Mysticrose said:I think a psychological profile of Boris Johnson proves rather enlightening.
If you watch his body language and verbal language down the years, you will see the affected bluster which is a defence mechanism. Hitherto it has proved remarkably good deception. People have often fallen for it. They find it charming.
Two days into the leadership contest and he's coming under intense scrutiny. The facade, the charade even, is breaking.
Underneath is someone who is as much of a mess as the back of his car.0 -
I don't remember her being necessarily pro-Trump in the way people seem to think although she was certainly anti-Clinton. What she was right about was the idea that there was this vast groundswell of support for Trump in the US which would take him all the way to the Whitehouse. At least early on in the campaigns she got a lot of stick for that belief from some posters.kjh said:
I don't think she was banned because of her views. She said things that were a potential legal threat to the site owners if I remember correctly and was warned several times.isam said:
Who said she predicted he’d win?Alistair said:
She didn't predict Trump would win. She just posted anti Hillary conspiracy theories.isam said:
Exactly what I was thinking re Plato. Stuck to her guns on Trump.Philip_Thompson said:
I normally disagree with HYUFD, and think his certainty in the future is infuriating and a broken clock is right twice a day ... but with Boris he deserves some credit in the same way the late Plato deserved credit for seeing in America what was happening with Trump.isam said:Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
She posted stuff that indicated it wasn’t as cut and dried as the accepted narrative suggested, which was true. And she was hounded off the site as a consequence. She had made it clear that she lived in isolation, and her frequency of posting made it obvious the site was a big part of her life.
She did post elsewhere in vast volume as well.
An earlier post said she was right about Trump. In what way was she right about Trump? Is Trump any different to what we expected?
As IanB2 said the huge benefit was the insight to the Alt-Right world which I must admit was an eye opener for me and a very welcome insight.
I seem to remember she was also the first to identify that scandal meant nothing to likely Trump supporters and just played into the narrative that the establishment were out to get him.
But I agree about why she was banned.0 -
Re Boris and charm. People keep saying to those who find Boris charmless "you haven't met him in person." I have in the days when he was a journalist and I found him full of himself and charmless. He is striking with his mop of blonde hair but to me having striking looks is not the same as having charisma. I found him immature then and now.0
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We have had more serious examination of options like No Deal via GATT 24 in the last week than had been done in months before that. For so long the literal mantra was "nothing has changed" which is wasting time. Whether it is for better or worse at least now something is changing.Cyclefree said:
While I agree with your last sentence, I strongly disagree with the first.Philip_Thompson said:
We aren't wasting the time. What was wasting time was bed blocker May clinging to office when she couldn't command Parliament. She should have lost the confidence vote last December or January. Now we are grappling with the divisions.Cyclefree said:Meanwhile somewhere in Brussels Donald Tusk is sitting at his desk, head in hands, quietly muttering to himself: “What part of ‘Don’t waste this time’ did the British not understand?”
We are wasting time. We are still believing in fantasy options rather than engaging with reality. It is unforgivably self-indulgent and frivolous.0 -
I think that the outside world is not really engaged in politics and only sees someone as projected by their media sources. We all know people who think Johnson is a bit of a laugh and brighten up politics so well vote for him. It’s sad but love island is more important to a lot of people.IanB2 said:
HY has been telling us for ages that Boris is the most popular next leader among Tory members. Which is hardly news: I have mixed with enough of them over the years to know that is true.Philip_Thompson said:
I normally disagree with HYUFD, and think his certainty in the future is infuriating and a broken clock is right twice a day ... but with Boris he deserves some credit in the same way the late Plato deserved credit for seeing in America what was happening with Trump.isam said:Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
What changed is the attitude of the MPs. There was plenty of evidence up until this year's elections that a good majority of them wouldnt touch Boris as leader with a bargepole, and the mechanism of their contest appeared designed to allow the MPs to lock him out if they wanted to. That Boris himself felt the same is evidenced by his stooges' somewhat desperate proposals to change the system to allow more people through to the member ballot, earlier in the year.
Now the MPs are in a panic about their futures, they are willing to make a gamble that not that long ago they would have refused.
Whether HY specifically predicted that the MPs would come round, I cannot recall. Anyone could have told us the members liked him.0 -
Fake news.DecrepitJohnL said:
SOP for Lynton Crosby. Hide to protect your lead. He did the same with Cameron ducking the debates in 2015.rottenborough said:
Yes, I am beginning to wonder this. At least May appeared in public and just said 'strong and stable'. Boris is in hiding it seems.anothernick said:
One of the oddest aspects of the Tories' perception of Johnson is their blind faith in him as a sure fire election winner. A man who cowers in a corner rather than engage with his opponents. who is unable to close down a fairly minor story about his private life (still very much live on day 4), and who is obviously uncomfortable when faced with even the easiest and most obvious questions about himself and his policies. How could he possibly come through a 6-week general election campaign?Mysticrose said:I think a psychological profile of Boris Johnson proves rather enlightening.
If you watch his body language and verbal language down the years, you will see the affected bluster which is a defence mechanism. Hitherto it has proved remarkably good deception. People have often fallen for it. They find it charming.
Two days into the leadership contest and he's coming under intense scrutiny. The facade, the charade even, is breaking.
Underneath is someone who is as much of a mess as the back of his car.
Dave attended most of the debates, he and Clegg weren’t invited to the non government parties debate.0 -
Much as with Corbyn, MPs have failed to do what they ought to be doing - putting forward a choice of MPs they believe would make good leaders. MPs seems to have put forward Boris not because they necessarily think he would make a good leader but because they know that the membership want him and fear not acceding to their wishes.
Similarly with Corbyn MPs nominated him to widen the debate rather than understanding that nominating him was saying that they thought he could be a good leader.
If MPs can’t understand their own leadership rules and what they are there for - to weed out unsuitable/undesirable candidates - it is hardly surprising that they don’t understand the first thing about the EU, Article 50, the WA, WTO, GATT and, most likely, how to tie their own shoelaces.
And frankly if voters, whether Tory or Labour party members or the electorate at large are those with the power, then it is high time some truth was spoken to them about what is / is not feasible, legal and realistic. Voters are no more entitled to have their fantasies indulged than anyone else, frankly.0 -
HY I believe did predict that the MPs would come round because he predicted MPs would want a leader popular with the public.IanB2 said:
HY has been telling us for ages that Boris is the most popular next leader among Tory members. Which is hardly news: I have mixed with enough of them over the years to know that is true.Philip_Thompson said:
I normally disagree with HYUFD, and think his certainty in the future is infuriating and a broken clock is right twice a day ... but with Boris he deserves some credit in the same way the late Plato deserved credit for seeing in America what was happening with Trump.isam said:Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
What changed is the attitude of the MPs. There was plenty of evidence up until this year's elections that a good majority of them wouldnt touch Boris as leader with a bargepole, and the mechanism of their contest appeared designed to allow the MPs to lock him out if they wanted to. That Boris himself felt the same is evidenced by his stooges' somewhat desperate proposals to change the system to allow more people through to the member ballot, earlier in the year.
Now the MPs are in a panic about their futures, they are willing to make a gamble that not that long ago they would have refused.
Whether HY specifically predicted that the MPs would come round, I cannot recall. Anyone could have told us the members liked him.0 -
There is a polity called Europe. There has been since the Caesars.Richard_Tyndall said:
There is no polity called Europe. That is a complete myth.williamglenn said:
We do have a say via QMV in the council (and via directly elected MEPs in the parliament). We have a polity called Europe.Philip_Thompson said:I've spent more time in Melbourne than I have Vienna. We don't share our laws with Melbourne.
What is undemocratic is those who pretend they don't want "a country called Europe" with all the accountability that comes with it but then are happy with having the laws set like that. Given Vienna is literally another country I'm not comfortable having our laws set by their politicians without our say via QMV.
If we want to be in a country called Europe then that is reasonable. But it should be by choice and genuinely made.0 -
Come on!TheScreamingEagles said:
Fake news.DecrepitJohnL said:
SOP for Lynton Crosby. Hide to protect your lead. He did the same with Cameron ducking the debates in 2015.rottenborough said:
Yes, I am beginning to wonder this. At least May appeared in public and just said 'strong and stable'. Boris is in hiding it seems.anothernick said:
One of the oddest aspects of the Tories' perception of Johnson is their blind faith in him as a sure fire election winner. A man who cowers in a corner rather than engage with his opponents. who is unable to close down a fairly minor story about his private life (still very much live on day 4), and who is obviously uncomfortable when faced with even the easiest and most obvious questions about himself and his policies. How could he possibly come through a 6-week general election campaign?Mysticrose said:I think a psychological profile of Boris Johnson proves rather enlightening.
If you watch his body language and verbal language down the years, you will see the affected bluster which is a defence mechanism. Hitherto it has proved remarkably good deception. People have often fallen for it. They find it charming.
Two days into the leadership contest and he's coming under intense scrutiny. The facade, the charade even, is breaking.
Underneath is someone who is as much of a mess as the back of his car.
Dave attended most of the debates, he and Clegg weren’t invited to the non government parties debate.
The non government parties debate only happened because it was what Cameron negotiated. Had he said "yes I will go to all" then the media wouldn't have said "no we are having one you aren't invited to".0 -
Just as very few viscerally and emotionally dislike the EU. It is classic Remainer arrogance to think that their view of the EU is more grounded in logic than that of the Leavers.TOPPING said:
Wouldn't disagree. Very few people on here uncritically support the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think it's a waste of time to try to explain to people who instinctively and uncritically support the EU, what the EU actually is. The myths are much more comforting.TOPPING said:
I think it's a waste of time to try to explain to people who viscerally and emotionally dislike the EU what the EU actually is. The myths are much more comforting.williamglenn said:
We do have a say via QMV in the council (and via directly elected MEPs in the parliament). We have a polity called Europe.Philip_Thompson said:I've spent more time in Melbourne than I have Vienna. We don't share our laws with Melbourne.
What is undemocratic is those who pretend they don't want "a country called Europe" with all the accountability that comes with it but then are happy with having the laws set like that. Given Vienna is literally another country I'm not comfortable having our laws set by their politicians without our say via QMV.
If we want to be in a country called Europe then that is reasonable. But it should be by choice and genuinely made.0 -
In one of the key states Trump won he got less votes than Romney. That's not a massive ground swell.Richard_Tyndall said:
I don't remember her being necessarily pro-Trump in the way people seem to think although she was certainly anti-Clinton. What she was right about was the idea that there was this vast groundswell of support for Trump in the US which would take him all the way to the Whitehouse. At least early on in the campaigns she got a lot of stick for that belief from some posters.kjh said:
I don't think she was banned because of her views. She said things that were a potential legal threat to the site owners if I remember correctly and was warned several times.isam said:
Who said she predicted he’d win?Alistair said:
She didn't predict Trump would win. She just posted anti Hillary conspiracy theories.isam said:
Exactly what I was thinking re Plato. Stuck to her guns on Trump.Philip_Thompson said:
I normally disagree with HYUFD, and think his certainty in the future is infuriating and a broken clock is right twice a day ... but with Boris he deserves some credit in the same way the late Plato deserved credit for seeing in America what was happening with Trump.isam said:Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
She posted stuff that indicated it wasn’t as cut and dried as the accepted narrative suggested, which was true. And she was hounded off the site as a consequence. She had made it clear that she lived in isolation, and her frequency of posting made it obvious the site was a big part of her life.
She did post elsewhere in vast volume as well.
An earlier post said she was right about Trump. In what way was she right about Trump? Is Trump any different to what we expected?
As IanB2 said the huge benefit was the insight to the Alt-Right world which I must admit was an eye opener for me and a very welcome insight.0 -
Mr. Recidivist, the Google definition of polity is: "an organized society; a state as a political entity."
Are you really claiming that's existed, for Europe, since Augustus Caesar?0 -
There is no time at all when there has been a single polity called Europe. It is another Remainer delusion.Recidivist said:
There is a polity called Europe. There has been since the Caesars.Richard_Tyndall said:
There is no polity called Europe. That is a complete myth.williamglenn said:
We do have a say via QMV in the council (and via directly elected MEPs in the parliament). We have a polity called Europe.Philip_Thompson said:I've spent more time in Melbourne than I have Vienna. We don't share our laws with Melbourne.
What is undemocratic is those who pretend they don't want "a country called Europe" with all the accountability that comes with it but then are happy with having the laws set like that. Given Vienna is literally another country I'm not comfortable having our laws set by their politicians without our say via QMV.
If we want to be in a country called Europe then that is reasonable. But it should be by choice and genuinely made.0 -
The whole house would be voting on the indicative confidence motion in the next potential PM. Many non-Tories (as well as 50% of Tory MPs) might prefer someone other than Johnson as next PM.DecrepitJohnL said:
The indicative confidence motion, which is in effect what you suggest, might be a constitutional innovation too far even for Speaker Bercow. However, if it is allowed, why would Conservative MPs, more than half of whom voted for Boris as recently as last week, suddenly decide they would rather support Hunt or Gove or Andrea Leadsom? Its intention is so transparent you'd still have Boris backers headed for the dentist on Labour's no confidence motion.Barnesian said:
Interesting. Suppose Mrs May immediately introduces an amendable business motion to test that Johnson has the confidence of the House and Corbyn interrupts with a VONC in Mrs May's government. What takes precedence? I guess the Speaker decides.DecrepitJohnL said:
As previously discussed, I cannot see this happening though I concede it is technically possible. I am not sure what happens with the FTPA timetable if things go as you suggest and Theresa May's government loses the confidence vote Labour would table just before the recess starts.Barnesian said:Johnson is 1.25-1,26 as next Tory Leader, and 1.27-1.28 as next PM.
These are much too close together. There is a gap between Johnson being chosen by the Tory Membership and Johnson being proposed to the Queen by Mrs May as commanding the confidence of the House. There may already be conversations about this between the Queen and Mrs May at the weekly audiences.
I can Mrs May stepping done as Tory leader in late July but staying on as PM during the recess. It will be an interesting conference season!
1) 22/7 Boris becomes party leader; May stays PM; Labour tables confidence motion
2) 23/7 100 of the 160 MPs who voted for Boris visit John Major's dentist so government loses confidence vote
3) 23/7 FTPA 14-day countdown starts
4) 25/7 House rises for summer recess till 3/9
5) I guess the Commons could not rise until the 14 days is up (or HMG wins a confidence vote) but the FTPA, to this non-lawyer, seems silent on the matter.
However, because May hanging on to keep Boris out would precipitate civil war in the party and a general election, I really cannot see it happening. If you think it will, then back Jeremy Corbyn to be next prime minister.
I think in this circumstance, Corbyn's VONC would get precedence but would lose because Mrs May's business motion, that would follow, would give Parliament the opportunity to choose the next PM and government.0 -
Pretty much for the last 500 years Europe has been united against the French.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Recidivist, the Google definition of polity is: "an organized society; a state as a political entity."
Are you really claiming that's existed, for Europe, since Augustus Caesar?0 -
as I was once told by a lawyer the first rule of negotiation is therre's always more timeCyclefree said:Meanwhile somewhere in Brussels Donald Tusk is sitting at his desk, head in hands, quietly muttering to himself: “What part of ‘Don’t waste this time’ did the British not understand?”
0 -
It's all about the deflecting, larger-than-life, bluff persona.Mysticrose said:I think a psychological profile of Boris Johnson proves rather enlightening.
If you watch his body language and verbal language down the years, you will see the affected bluster which is a defence mechanism. Hitherto it has proved remarkably good deception. People have often fallen for it. They find it charming.
Two days into the leadership contest and he's coming under intense scrutiny. The facade, the charade even, is breaking.
Underneath is someone who is as much of a mess as the back of his car.
Serious scrutiny of him is difficult and discouraged because his manner makes the attempt to do it look po-faced and 'boring'. Like the questioner is being just toooo tedious for words. Everything is a bit of a giggle and if you're not laughing along with him (laughing at what he is laughing at) you're a frightful square.
It is very effective. He did it throughout as time as Mayor.
In this respect he closely resembles another blond ham merchant - Jimmy Savile.0 -
That’s just an excuse for more billable hours.Alanbrooke said:
as I was once told by a lawyer the first rule of negotiation is therre's always more timeCyclefree said:Meanwhile somewhere in Brussels Donald Tusk is sitting at his desk, head in hands, quietly muttering to himself: “What part of ‘Don’t waste this time’ did the British not understand?”
0 -
What about Leavers who think that their view of the EU is more grounded in logic than that of Remainers?Richard_Tyndall said:
Just as very few viscerally and emotionally dislike the EU. It is classic Remainer arrogance to think that their view of the EU is more grounded in logic than that of the Leavers.TOPPING said:
Wouldn't disagree. Very few people on here uncritically support the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think it's a waste of time to try to explain to people who instinctively and uncritically support the EU, what the EU actually is. The myths are much more comforting.TOPPING said:
I think it's a waste of time to try to explain to people who viscerally and emotionally dislike the EU what the EU actually is. The myths are much more comforting.williamglenn said:
We do have a say via QMV in the council (and via directly elected MEPs in the parliament). We have a polity called Europe.Philip_Thompson said:I've spent more time in Melbourne than I have Vienna. We don't share our laws with Melbourne.
What is undemocratic is those who pretend they don't want "a country called Europe" with all the accountability that comes with it but then are happy with having the laws set like that. Given Vienna is literally another country I'm not comfortable having our laws set by their politicians without our say via QMV.
If we want to be in a country called Europe then that is reasonable. But it should be by choice and genuinely made.0 -
With Barristers fees at £600 per hour plus that makes perfect sense to a lawyer.Alanbrooke said:
as I was once told by a lawyer the first rule of negotiation is therre's always more timeCyclefree said:Meanwhile somewhere in Brussels Donald Tusk is sitting at his desk, head in hands, quietly muttering to himself: “What part of ‘Don’t waste this time’ did the British not understand?”
0 -
And who decides 'The Truth' Cyclefree? You? Me? Neither of us - nor anyone ese on here or in politics as a whole - is in any position to claim we are the guardians of 'The Truth'.Cyclefree said:Much as with Corbyn, MPs have failed to do what they ought to be doing - putting forward a choice of MPs they believe would make good leaders. MPs seems to have put forward Boris not because they necessarily think he would make a good leader but because they know that the membership want him and fear not acceding to their wishes.
Similarly with Corbyn MPs nominated him to widen the debate rather than understanding that nominating him was saying that they thought he could be a good leader.
If MPs can’t understand their own leadership rules and what they are there for - to weed out unsuitable/undesirable candidates - it is hardly surprising that they don’t understand the first thing about the EU, Article 50, the WA, WTO, GATT and, most likely, how to tie their own shoelaces.
And frankly if voters, whether Tory or Labour party members or the electorate at large are those with the power, then it is high time some truth was spoken to them about what is / is not feasible, legal and realistic. Voters are no more entitled to have their fantasies indulged than anyone else, frankly.
I am afraid the idea that there is some objective truth about geopolitics that can be rammed down the throat of the voters is another delusion.0 -
certainly, but in practice it has usually been true.TheScreamingEagles said:
That’s just an excuse for more billable hours.Alanbrooke said:
as I was once told by a lawyer the first rule of negotiation is therre's always more timeCyclefree said:Meanwhile somewhere in Brussels Donald Tusk is sitting at his desk, head in hands, quietly muttering to himself: “What part of ‘Don’t waste this time’ did the British not understand?”
0 -
It’s no wonder Johnson is stay out of site listening to his foot soldiers trying to defend the indefensible it would be hilarious if not serious. He won’t worry about the members hustings as they believe his crap, think stories about his private life are politically motivated and most have made up their minds anyway. To avoid wider public scrutiny is his best tactic and costs him nothing in terms of the members.0
-
and there are oceans of lawyers tied up in BrexitMexicanpete said:
With Barristers fees at £600 per hour plus that makes perfect sense to a lawyer.Alanbrooke said:
as I was once told by a lawyer the first rule of negotiation is therre's always more timeCyclefree said:Meanwhile somewhere in Brussels Donald Tusk is sitting at his desk, head in hands, quietly muttering to himself: “What part of ‘Don’t waste this time’ did the British not understand?”
go figure0 -
'Now then, now then, little Milly from Ruislip sat on my knee here has asked if I can fix the backstop..'kinabalu said:
It's all about the deflecting, larger-than-life, bluff persona.Mysticrose said:I think a psychological profile of Boris Johnson proves rather enlightening.
If you watch his body language and verbal language down the years, you will see the affected bluster which is a defence mechanism. Hitherto it has proved remarkably good deception. People have often fallen for it. They find it charming.
Two days into the leadership contest and he's coming under intense scrutiny. The facade, the charade even, is breaking.
Underneath is someone who is as much of a mess as the back of his car.
Serious scrutiny of him is difficult and discouraged because his manner makes the attempt to do it look po-faced and 'boring'. Like the questioner is being just toooo tedious for words. Everything is a bit of a giggle and if you're not laughing along with him (laughing at what he is laughing at) you're a frightful square.
It is very effective. He did it throughout as time as Mayor.
In this respect he closely resembles another blond ham merchant - Jimmy Savile.0 -
They are using the same arguments as the Scots Nationalists. Which, as it happens, I agree with.Theuniondivvie said:
What about Leavers who think that their view of the EU is more grounded in logic than that of Remainers?.Richard_Tyndall said:
Just as very few viscerally and emotionally dislike the EU. It is classic Remainer arrogance to think that their view of the EU is more grounded in logic than that of the Leavers.TOPPING said:
Wouldn't disagree. Very few people on here uncritically support the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think it's a waste of time to try to explain to people who instinctively and uncritically support the EU, what the EU actually is. The myths are much more comforting.TOPPING said:
I think it's a waste of time to try to explain to people who viscerally and emotionally dislike the EU what the EU actually is. The myths are much more comforting.williamglenn said:
We do have a say via QMV in the council (and via directly elected MEPs in the parliament). We have a polity called Europe.Philip_Thompson said:I've spent more time in Melbourne than I have Vienna. We don't share our laws with Melbourne.
What is undemocratic is those who pretend they don't want "a country called Europe" with all the accountability that comes with it but then are happy with having the laws set like that. Given Vienna is literally another country I'm not comfortable having our laws set by their politicians without our say via QMV.
If we want to be in a country called Europe then that is reasonable. But it should be by choice and genuinely made.0 -
Yes they might but I can't see Conservative MPs supporting Jeremy Corbyn, for instance, or Labour and SNP MPs supporting any Conservative at all. This is nonsense, surely. Whichever of Boris or Hunt wins the leadership election on 22 July will become Prime Minister the same afternoon. There is no plausible way to prevent it.Barnesian said:
The whole house would be voting on the indicative confidence motion in the next potential PM. Many non-Tories (as well as 50% of Tory MPs) might prefer someone other than Johnson as next PM.DecrepitJohnL said:
The indicative confidence motion, which is in effect what you suggest, might be a constitutional innovation too far even for Speaker Bercow. However, if it is allowed, why would Conservative MPs, more than half of whom voted for Boris as recently as last week, suddenly decide they would rather support Hunt or Gove or Andrea Leadsom? Its intention is so transparent you'd still have Boris backers headed for the dentist on Labour's no confidence motion.Barnesian said:
Interesting. Suppose Mrs May immediately introduces an amendable business motion to test that Johnson has the confidence of the House and Corbyn interrupts with a VONC in Mrs May's government. What takes precedence? I guess the Speaker decides.DecrepitJohnL said:As previously discussed, I cannot see this happening though I concede it is technically possible. I am not sure what happens with the FTPA timetable if things go as you suggest and Theresa May's government loses the confidence vote Labour would table just before the recess starts.
1) 22/7 Boris becomes party leader; May stays PM; Labour tables confidence motion
2) 23/7 100 of the 160 MPs who voted for Boris visit John Major's dentist so government loses confidence vote
3) 23/7 FTPA 14-day countdown starts
4) 25/7 House rises for summer recess till 3/9
5) I guess the Commons could not rise until the 14 days is up (or HMG wins a confidence vote) but the FTPA, to this non-lawyer, seems silent on the matter.
However, because May hanging on to keep Boris out would precipitate civil war in the party and a general election, I really cannot see it happening. If you think it will, then back Jeremy Corbyn to be next prime minister.
I think in this circumstance, Corbyn's VONC would get precedence but would lose because Mrs May's business motion, that would follow, would give Parliament the opportunity to choose the next PM and government.
Now, how long he stays PM is another question. Labour will doubtless attempt to no confidence him, and there is much speculation Boris wants an autumn election anyway. But Boris or Hunt will be prime minister, however briefly.0 -
I am claiming that if you could do a multi century opinion poll then the majority would recognise Europe as a cohesive cultural entity that could in principle form a single state.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Recidivist, the Google definition of polity is: "an organized society; a state as a political entity."
Are you really claiming that's existed, for Europe, since Augustus Caesar?0 -
Stories about his private life ARE politically motivated.nichomar said:It’s no wonder Johnson is stay out of site listening to his foot soldiers trying to defend the indefensible it would be hilarious if not serious. He won’t worry about the members hustings as they believe his crap, think stories about his private life are politically motivated and most have made up their minds anyway. To avoid wider public scrutiny is his best tactic and costs him nothing in terms of the members.
If it wasn't for politics then "lovers argue after man spills wine on sofa" would not be news.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
That’s just an excuse for more billable hours.Alanbrooke said:
as I was once told by a lawyer the first rule of negotiation is therre's always more timeCyclefree said:Meanwhile somewhere in Brussels Donald Tusk is sitting at his desk, head in hands, quietly muttering to himself: “What part of ‘Don’t waste this time’ did the British not understand?”
0 -
TM was not endorsed by parliament , she won by default as leadsom pulled out, and did not get public mandate until 2017 election, Gordon Brown did not have parliament endorsing him. Boris has the support of over 50% of the parliamentary party (more than Cameron had in 2005) and will win a majority in early election IMO to get public mandate.Barnesian said:
This is a unique occurrence. Never before has a PM been appointed by the membership of a political party (which in effect is what you are proposing) rather than endorsed by parliament or in a general election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You may hope so but I see no path for TM not to pass on the office the same day to Boris, if electedBarnesian said:
In Office as Tory Party Leader. But she remains PM until the next PM kisses the hand of the Queen and takes over the nuclear codes. And that won't happen until it is clear that they command the confidence of the house.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If the membership elect Boris TM will have no choice but to step down. On his election she automatically ceases to be in Officerottenborough said:Barnesian said:Johnson is 1.25-1,26 as next Tory Leader, and 1.27-1.28 as next PM.
These are much too close together. There is a gap between Johnson being chosen by the Tory Membership and Johnson being proposed to the Queen by Mrs May as commanding the confidence of the House. There may already be conversations about this between the Queen and Mrs May at the weekly audiences.
I can Mrs May stepping done as Tory leader in late July but staying on as PM during the recess. It will be an interesting conference season!
It raises enormous constitutional issues which the Queen and her advisers will be very aware of. Mrs May is not exactly a keen supporter of Johnson and knows he's lying.
The path you are looking for is that Mrs May immediately steps down as leader of the Tory Party, congratulates Johnson on his appointment as Leader, and announces an amendable business motion to test that he commands the support of the House which he loses. It is an amendable motion so other potential candidates can also be tested and a new PM will emerge.
If all fail to command the confidence of the House, then Mrs May stays in place as PM and calls a General election for September.0 -
Oh dear.....Richard_Tyndall said:
And who decides 'The Truth' Cyclefree? You? Me? Neither of us - nor anyone ese on here or in politics as a whole - is in any position to claim we are the guardians of 'The Truth'.Cyclefree said:Much as with Corbyn, MPs have failed to do what they ought to be doing - putting forward a choice of MPs they believe would make good leaders. MPs seems to have put forward Boris not because they necessarily think he would make a good leader but because they know that the membership want him and fear not acceding to their wishes.
Similarly with Corbyn MPs nominated him to widen the debate rather than understanding that nominating him was saying that they thought he could be a good leader.
If MPs can’t understand their own leadership rules and what they are there for - to weed out unsuitable/undesirable candidates - it is hardly surprising that they don’t understand the first thing about the EU, Article 50, the WA, WTO, GATT and, most likely, how to tie their own shoelaces.
And frankly if voters, whether Tory or Labour party members or the electorate at large are those with the power, then it is high time some truth was spoken to them about what is / is not feasible, legal and realistic. Voters are no more entitled to have their fantasies indulged than anyone else, frankly.
I am afraid the idea that there is some objective truth about geopolitics that can be rammed down the throat of the voters is another delusion.
Still, with an approach like that, a good time for us lawyers while we try and spell out some truths about laws and legal agreements and other boring stuff like that which impacts on geopolitics.
0 -
Your opinion about a future early election which may or may not happen might not be sufficient for the Queen to make a decision on the next PM!kjohnw said:
TM was not endorsed by parliament , she won by default as leadsom pulled out, and did not get public mandate until 2017 election, Gordon Brown did not have parliament endorsing him. Boris has the support of over 50% of the parliamentary party (more than Cameron had in 2005) and will win a majority in early election IMO to get public mandate.Barnesian said:
This is a unique occurrence. Never before has a PM been appointed by the membership of a political party (which in effect is what you are proposing) rather than endorsed by parliament or in a general election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You may hope so but I see no path for TM not to pass on the office the same day to Boris, if electedBarnesian said:
In Office as Tory Party Leader. But she remains PM until the next PM kisses the hand of the Queen and takes over the nuclear codes. And that won't happen until it is clear that they command the confidence of the house.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If the membership elect Boris TM will have no choice but to step down. On his election she automatically ceases to be in Officerottenborough said:Barnesian said:Johnson is 1.25-1,26 as next Tory Leader, and 1.27-1.28 as next PM.
These are much too close together. There is a gap between Johnson being chosen by the Tory Membership and Johnson being proposed to the Queen by Mrs May as commanding the confidence of the House. There may already be conversations about this between the Queen and Mrs May at the weekly audiences.
I can Mrs May stepping done as Tory leader in late July but staying on as PM during the recess. It will be an interesting conference season!
It raises enormous constitutional issues which the Queen and her advisers will be very aware of. Mrs May is not exactly a keen supporter of Johnson and knows he's lying.
The path you are looking for is that Mrs May immediately steps down as leader of the Tory Party, congratulates Johnson on his appointment as Leader, and announces an amendable business motion to test that he commands the support of the House which he loses. It is an amendable motion so other potential candidates can also be tested and a new PM will emerge.
If all fail to command the confidence of the House, then Mrs May stays in place as PM and calls a General election for September.0 -
-
Interesting survey on what citizens of arab countries think on a range of issues
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-487033770 -
Richard is it arrogant to believe the world is not flat?Richard_Tyndall said:
Just as very few viscerally and emotionally dislike the EU. It is classic Remainer arrogance to think that their view of the EU is more grounded in logic than that of the Leavers.TOPPING said:
Wouldn't disagree. Very few people on here uncritically support the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think it's a waste of time to try to explain to people who instinctively and uncritically support the EU, what the EU actually is. The myths are much more comforting.TOPPING said:
I think it's a waste of time to try to explain to people who viscerally and emotionally dislike the EU what the EU actually is. The myths are much more comforting.williamglenn said:
We do have a say via QMV in the council (and via directly elected MEPs in the parliament). We have a polity called Europe.Philip_Thompson said:I've spent more time in Melbourne than I have Vienna. We don't share our laws with Melbourne.
What is undemocratic is those who pretend they don't want "a country called Europe" with all the accountability that comes with it but then are happy with having the laws set like that. Given Vienna is literally another country I'm not comfortable having our laws set by their politicians without our say via QMV.
If we want to be in a country called Europe then that is reasonable. But it should be by choice and genuinely made.0 -
Boris the coward.Scott_P said:
If Boris is scared to debate Jeremy Hunt then how’s he going to take on Michel Barnier?1 -
Mr. Recidivist, you could say that about Yorkshire.
A polity is a single political entity, a state.
You'd also have to cherrypick conveniently. The Protestants and Catholics are unlikely to agree, likewise when Spain was Muslim. In the early part of the first millennium most countries didn't like their churches falling Rome's sway (ironically, Britain was an early adopter of this). There's the Orthodox/Latin split, the Carolingian Empire and its fragmentation.
The Roman Empire was the closest Europe ever came to being a single nation state and that didn't include perhaps a third or more of the continent. Unless we count the ephemeral conquest of the Third Reich, of course.
In medieval times even people from another village or county were* considered foreign. The idea there's long been a broad European identity (beyond the geographical aspect) is fiction.
That's not to say many people now don't feel that way, attaching such an identity to the EU.
Edited extra bit: *to clarify, 'could be' would be more accurate.0 -
I think the becoming PM/Tory leader arb was real if the likes of Raab or McVey had won. They would not have commanded the confidence of the Commons, and therefore the Queen should not have allowed them to become PM.
With Boris he will refuse to say he will definitely leave by Oct 31(gets as close as he can to saying so, but deliberately chooses vague words instead) so the Tory remainers will allow him to become PM and bring him down if he ever gets close to no deal.0 -
Brave Sir Robin has shat his pants, brave Sir RobinScott_P said:
Johnson doesn’t do scrutiny. Never has. You understand why when he absolutely cannot avoid it.
0 -
Mr. Eagles, he's not hiding, and you're cruel and unjust to make such an allegation.
The inside of the spare room wardrobe isn't going to dust itself, is it?1 -
Am I still banned from making gags about paying £400 an hour plus VAT and disbursements for some good S & M work?Cyclefree said:TheScreamingEagles said:
That’s just an excuse for more billable hours.Alanbrooke said:
as I was once told by a lawyer the first rule of negotiation is therre's always more timeCyclefree said:Meanwhile somewhere in Brussels Donald Tusk is sitting at his desk, head in hands, quietly muttering to himself: “What part of ‘Don’t waste this time’ did the British not understand?”
1 -
He is not going to take him on, he will ask Barnier what do you want in order to give me a deal that can get thru parliament, then offer whatever that is to the EU without much negotiation. It will be a terrible deal for the UK economically but might placate the ERG who do not care about the economy.TheScreamingEagles said:
Boris the coward.Scott_P said:
If Boris is scared to debate Jeremy Hunt then how’s he going to take on Michel Barnier?0 -
Yep, if Johnson was not running to be PM the fact the police were called because the row was so violently noisy would not have been news.Philip_Thompson said:
Stories about his private life ARE politically motivated.nichomar said:It’s no wonder Johnson is stay out of site listening to his foot soldiers trying to defend the indefensible it would be hilarious if not serious. He won’t worry about the members hustings as they believe his crap, think stories about his private life are politically motivated and most have made up their minds anyway. To avoid wider public scrutiny is his best tactic and costs him nothing in terms of the members.
If it wasn't for politics then "lovers argue after man spills wine on sofa" would not be news.
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It’s only an issue if they go ahead without him isn’t it?Scott_P said:0 -
I’m not saying the reporting of the event was not politically motivated but that many people actually discredit the story using that phrase. If nothing else it shows that he should of realized it would be reported if he farted in bed so should have been more careful.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, if Johnson was not running to be PM the fact the police were called because the row was so violently noisy would not have been news.Philip_Thompson said:
Stories about his private life ARE politically motivated.nichomar said:It’s no wonder Johnson is stay out of site listening to his foot soldiers trying to defend the indefensible it would be hilarious if not serious. He won’t worry about the members hustings as they believe his crap, think stories about his private life are politically motivated and most have made up their minds anyway. To avoid wider public scrutiny is his best tactic and costs him nothing in terms of the members.
If it wasn't for politics then "lovers argue after man spills wine on sofa" would not be news.0 -
If they do that it might have some effect, but people don’t notice people not turning up to shows that weren’t madenoneoftheabove said:0 -
It is notable that he has few supporters - and indeed some very harsh critics - among those who have worked most closely with him in the pastSandraMc said:Re Boris and charm. People keep saying to those who find Boris charmless "you haven't met him in person." I have in the days when he was a journalist and I found him full of himself and charmless. He is striking with his mop of blonde hair but to me having striking looks is not the same as having charisma. I found him immature then and now.
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Mr. Isam, quite.
Cancelled debate harms Boris almost not at all. The only damage is that it adds to the laundry list of cowardice he's accumulating, but his advantage is such it probably won't matter.0 -
The legal profession has always attracted more than its fair share of cynicism and not, in my humble opinion, without ample justification. Generously, the poacher/ gamekeeper ratio probably mirrors leave/ remain.TheScreamingEagles said:
Am I still banned from making gags about paying £400 an hour plus VAT and disbursements for some good S & M work?Cyclefree said:TheScreamingEagles said:
That’s just an excuse for more billable hours.Alanbrooke said:
as I was once told by a lawyer the first rule of negotiation is therre's always more timeCyclefree said:Meanwhile somewhere in Brussels Donald Tusk is sitting at his desk, head in hands, quietly muttering to himself: “What part of ‘Don’t waste this time’ did the British not understand?”
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Johnson is running for PM. He was involved in a violent row audible to a number of neighbours in their own homes. Of course it’s news.nichomar said:
I’m not saying the reporting of the event was not politically motivated but that many people actually discredit the story using that phrase. If nothing else it shows that he should of realized it would be reported if he farted in bed so should have been more careful.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, if Johnson was not running to be PM the fact the police were called because the row was so violently noisy would not have been news.Philip_Thompson said:
Stories about his private life ARE politically motivated.nichomar said:It’s no wonder Johnson is stay out of site listening to his foot soldiers trying to defend the indefensible it would be hilarious if not serious. He won’t worry about the members hustings as they believe his crap, think stories about his private life are politically motivated and most have made up their minds anyway. To avoid wider public scrutiny is his best tactic and costs him nothing in terms of the members.
If it wasn't for politics then "lovers argue after man spills wine on sofa" would not be news.
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Sky's audience figures would plummet to zero. Not even his wife would tune in for a whole hour of Jeremy Hunt pontificating.noneoftheabove said:0 -
Sky - talking to the public?noneoftheabove said:0 -
Why do you think the Guardian has not released the recording?SouthamObserver said:
Johnson is running for PM. He was involved in a violent row audible to a number of neighbours in their own homes. Of course it’s news.nichomar said:
I’m not saying the reporting of the event was not politically motivated but that many people actually discredit the story using that phrase. If nothing else it shows that he should of realized it would be reported if he farted in bed so should have been more careful.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, if Johnson was not running to be PM the fact the police were called because the row was so violently noisy would not have been news.Philip_Thompson said:
Stories about his private life ARE politically motivated.nichomar said:It’s no wonder Johnson is stay out of site listening to his foot soldiers trying to defend the indefensible it would be hilarious if not serious. He won’t worry about the members hustings as they believe his crap, think stories about his private life are politically motivated and most have made up their minds anyway. To avoid wider public scrutiny is his best tactic and costs him nothing in terms of the members.
If it wasn't for politics then "lovers argue after man spills wine on sofa" would not be news.0 -
Speaking of the anti Hillary thing.
I note the rumours of her having a neurological condition have disappeared.0 -
As long as he does the ITV one he should be fine. We don't need more than 1 debate IMO, most PMs avoided debates entirely. Sky News is a second class broadcaster with a 2nd rate audience, BBC or ITV will get the numbers and the interest.isam said:
It’s only an issue if they go ahead without him isn’t it?Scott_P said:0 -
No idea.tlg86 said:
Why do you think the Guardian has not released the recording?SouthamObserver said:
Johnson is running for PM. He was involved in a violent row audible to a number of neighbours in their own homes. Of course it’s news.nichomar said:
I’m not saying the reporting of the event was not politically motivated but that many people actually discredit the story using that phrase. If nothing else it shows that he should of realized it would be reported if he farted in bed so should have been more careful.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, if Johnson was not running to be PM the fact the police were called because the row was so violently noisy would not have been news.Philip_Thompson said:
Stories about his private life ARE politically motivated.nichomar said:It’s no wonder Johnson is stay out of site listening to his foot soldiers trying to defend the indefensible it would be hilarious if not serious. He won’t worry about the members hustings as they believe his crap, think stories about his private life are politically motivated and most have made up their minds anyway. To avoid wider public scrutiny is his best tactic and costs him nothing in terms of the members.
If it wasn't for politics then "lovers argue after man spills wine on sofa" would not be news.
0 -
Are you suggesting he's never farted in bed? Now that would be news.nichomar said:
I’m not saying the reporting of the event was not politically motivated but that many people actually discredit the story using that phrase. If nothing else it shows that he should of realized it would be reported if he farted in bed so should have been more careful.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, if Johnson was not running to be PM the fact the police were called because the row was so violently noisy would not have been news.Philip_Thompson said:
Stories about his private life ARE politically motivated.nichomar said:It’s no wonder Johnson is stay out of site listening to his foot soldiers trying to defend the indefensible it would be hilarious if not serious. He won’t worry about the members hustings as they believe his crap, think stories about his private life are politically motivated and most have made up their minds anyway. To avoid wider public scrutiny is his best tactic and costs him nothing in terms of the members.
If it wasn't for politics then "lovers argue after man spills wine on sofa" would not be news.0 -
Mr. 86, possible they were hoping Boris would make a statement, perhaps innocuous in itself, which is contradicted by the recording?0
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and would people turn up to listen to that? Who ever watches Party Political Broadcasts?isam said:
If they do that it might have some effect, but people don’t notice people not turning up to shows that weren’t madenoneoftheabove said:0 -
Those with dyslexia amazed at the new M & S hourly rate at their stores ....TheScreamingEagles said:Am I still banned from making gags about paying £400 an hour plus VAT and disbursements for some good S & M work?
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I think Hunt should tell us more about his plans to close down successful, profitable businesses, and put people out of work. As well as how he will build an economy that creates replacement jobs.DecrepitJohnL said:
Sky's audience figures would plummet to zero. Not even his wife would tune in for a whole hour of Jeremy Hunt pontificating.noneoftheabove said:
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An alternative to an empty chair would've been empty chair + Boris quoted positions, which Hunt could then attack.
Entirely one-sided, of course, and it'd raise an interesting question over both impartiality and equal coverage.0 -
Strangely, almost exactly the same people who fixated on that had a wee frisson at Merkel's wobble last week.Freggles said:Speaking of the anti Hillary thing.
I note the rumours of her having a neurological condition have disappeared.0 -
I agree I’m only reporting the views of how some members of the public poo poo the whole thing on the basis ‘it was politically motivated’SouthamObserver said:
Johnson is running for PM. He was involved in a violent row audible to a number of neighbours in their own homes. Of course it’s news.nichomar said:
I’m not saying the reporting of the event was not politically motivated but that many people actually discredit the story using that phrase. If nothing else it shows that he should of realized it would be reported if he farted in bed so should have been more careful.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, if Johnson was not running to be PM the fact the police were called because the row was so violently noisy would not have been news.Philip_Thompson said:
Stories about his private life ARE politically motivated.nichomar said:It’s no wonder Johnson is stay out of site listening to his foot soldiers trying to defend the indefensible it would be hilarious if not serious. He won’t worry about the members hustings as they believe his crap, think stories about his private life are politically motivated and most have made up their minds anyway. To avoid wider public scrutiny is his best tactic and costs him nothing in terms of the members.
If it wasn't for politics then "lovers argue after man spills wine on sofa" would not be news.0 -
"violent"? That would surely require something more than "nothing to see here" from Plod.SouthamObserver said:
Johnson is running for PM. He was involved in a violent row audible to a number of neighbours in their own homes. Of course it’s news.nichomar said:
I’m not saying the reporting of the event was not politically motivated but that many people actually discredit the story using that phrase. If nothing else it shows that he should of realized it would be reported if he farted in bed so should have been more careful.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, if Johnson was not running to be PM the fact the police were called because the row was so violently noisy would not have been news.Philip_Thompson said:
Stories about his private life ARE politically motivated.nichomar said:It’s no wonder Johnson is stay out of site listening to his foot soldiers trying to defend the indefensible it would be hilarious if not serious. He won’t worry about the members hustings as they believe his crap, think stories about his private life are politically motivated and most have made up their minds anyway. To avoid wider public scrutiny is his best tactic and costs him nothing in terms of the members.
If it wasn't for politics then "lovers argue after man spills wine on sofa" would not be news.0 -
That's how I remember it. What caused people to give her stick was the endless regurgitation and links to ever wackier alt-right conspiracy sites. She would have been more at home on Guido. Towards the end of her PG life she never really engaged in discussion just kept turning out dozens pro-Trump propaganda posts every daykjh said:
How was she right on Trump? She supported him, but I don't think she predicted he would win did she? She did seem to be taken in by conspiracies and show tendencies of cult following, which was very worrying. I assume she was banned to protect the site.HYUFD said:
Plato was certainly right on Trump, I believe she did have a brother though but otherwise cannot comment on her personal situationisam said:
Exactly what I was thinking re Plato. Stuck to her guns on Trump, got dogs abuse, banned from the site then died a lonely woman. It might do people a favour to consider that people who frequently post on social media might be lonely and isolated before they hurl abuse at them on a daily basis.Philip_Thompson said:
I normally disagree with HYUFD, and think his certainty in the future is infuriating and a broken clock is right twice a day ... but with Boris he deserves some credit in the same way the late Plato deserved credit for seeing in America what was happening with Trump.isam said:Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’0 -
The next part of this saga is a puff piece on Boris's love making followed by an exclusive on his bowel movements.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Go on - have a guess - you do it all the timeSouthamObserver said:
No idea.tlg86 said:
Why do you think the Guardian has not released the recording?SouthamObserver said:
Johnson is running for PM. He was involved in a violent row audible to a number of neighbours in their own homes. Of course it’s news.nichomar said:
I’m not saying the reporting of the event was not politically motivated but that many people actually discredit the story using that phrase. If nothing else it shows that he should of realized it would be reported if he farted in bed so should have been more careful.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, if Johnson was not running to be PM the fact the police were called because the row was so violently noisy would not have been news.Philip_Thompson said:
Stories about his private life ARE politically motivated.nichomar said:It’s no wonder Johnson is stay out of site listening to his foot soldiers trying to defend the indefensible it would be hilarious if not serious. He won’t worry about the members hustings as they believe his crap, think stories about his private life are politically motivated and most have made up their minds anyway. To avoid wider public scrutiny is his best tactic and costs him nothing in terms of the members.
If it wasn't for politics then "lovers argue after man spills wine on sofa" would not be news.0 -
An interesting Q with quite a range of possible answers.tlg86 said:
Why do you think the Guardian has not released the recording?SouthamObserver said:
Johnson is running for PM. He was involved in a violent row audible to a number of neighbours in their own homes. Of course it’s news.nichomar said:
I’m not saying the reporting of the event was not politically motivated but that many people actually discredit the story using that phrase. If nothing else it shows that he should of realized it would be reported if he farted in bed so should have been more careful.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, if Johnson was not running to be PM the fact the police were called because the row was so violently noisy would not have been news.Philip_Thompson said:
Stories about his private life ARE politically motivated.nichomar said:It’s no wonder Johnson is stay out of site listening to his foot soldiers trying to defend the indefensible it would be hilarious if not serious. He won’t worry about the members hustings as they believe his crap, think stories about his private life are politically motivated and most have made up their minds anyway. To avoid wider public scrutiny is his best tactic and costs him nothing in terms of the members.
If it wasn't for politics then "lovers argue after man spills wine on sofa" would not be news.
Are there legal issues given it was made without consent?
Given Boris is holed up in a remote farmhouse waiting for stories about his character to subside, they haven't reached optimum release time yet, anyway0 -
😂Pulpstar said:
The next part of this saga is a puff piece on Boris's love making followed by an exclusive on his bowel movements.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Never trust a solicitor that goes to work in the financial services sector.ReggieCide said:
The legal profession has always attracted more than its fair share of cynicism and not, in my humble opinion, without ample justification. Generously, the poacher/ gamekeeper ratio probably mirrors leave/ remain.TheScreamingEagles said:
Am I still banned from making gags about paying £400 an hour plus VAT and disbursements for some good S & M work?Cyclefree said:TheScreamingEagles said:
That’s just an excuse for more billable hours.Alanbrooke said:
as I was once told by a lawyer the first rule of negotiation is therre's always more timeCyclefree said:Meanwhile somewhere in Brussels Donald Tusk is sitting at his desk, head in hands, quietly muttering to himself: “What part of ‘Don’t waste this time’ did the British not understand?”
Absolute shysters.0 -
What do you hear, is she on top?Pulpstar said:
The next part of this saga is a puff piece on Boris's love making followed by an exclusive on his bowel movements.TheScreamingEagles said:
I hear her say "how's that?" and then he'll say "hold on, I've got to text Lynton."0 -
would that bother Sky or any other MSM for that matter?Morris_Dancer said:An alternative to an empty chair would've been empty chair + Boris quoted positions, which Hunt could then attack.
Entirely one-sided, of course, and it'd raise an interesting question over both impartiality and equal coverage.0 -
Fixed that for you.TheScreamingEagles said:
Never trust a solicitor that goes to work in the financial services sector.ReggieCide said:
The legal profession has always attracted more than its fair share of cynicism and not, in my humble opinion, without ample justification. Generously, the poacher/ gamekeeper ratio probably mirrors leave/ remain.TheScreamingEagles said:
Am I still banned from making gags about paying £400 an hour plus VAT and disbursements for some good S & M work?Cyclefree said:TheScreamingEagles said:
That’s just an excuse for more billable hours.Alanbrooke said:
as I was once told by a lawyer the first rule of negotiation is therre's always more timeCyclefree said:Meanwhile somewhere in Brussels Donald Tusk is sitting at his desk, head in hands, quietly muttering to himself: “What part of ‘Don’t waste this time’ did the British not understand?”
Absolute shysters.
(runs to hide.)0 -
I don't know whether to look forward to Johnson at PMQs for the lolz, or be worried about the erosion of accountability that will result.SouthamObserver said:
Brave Sir Robin has shat his pants, brave Sir RobinScott_P said:
Johnson doesn’t do scrutiny. Never has. You understand why when he absolutely cannot avoid it.0
