Johnson is 1.25-1,26 as next Tory Leader, and 1.27-1.28 as next PM.
These are much too close together. There is a gap between Johnson being chosen by the Tory Membership and Johnson being proposed to the Queen by Mrs May as commanding the confidence of the House. There may already be conversations about this between the Queen and Mrs May at the weekly audiences.
I can Mrs May stepping done as Tory leader in late July but staying on as PM during the recess. It will be an interesting conference season!
Finally out of central LA thank god. Back to San Diego for the first time in a while, it's still probably the only place I'd consider moving to in the US, well that and Venice/Santa Monica.
LA is a horrible place
Good morning Malc
My wife and I suffered an 8 hour power outage on the 6th floor of our LA hotel completely trapped and used the in room fridge to keep our spirits up. At the same time Arnold Schwarzenegger was trying to hold a celebrity party on the ground floor
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
No one is doubting he could win (he's red for me but that's an emotional and dear god does no one have any common sense bet).
People are saying he is an utter, utter twat, lying scumbag and is wholly unfit to be our PM.
That is the central thrust of most peoples' comments on PB.
No need to take it out on HYUFD though. He has his way of looking at politics, and he’s entitled to it. Plenty of people rely on polling to back up their views, although not to the extent he does, so I’m surprised at the venom thrown his way
Is the implantation period the time it will take to put a brain into the respective heads of IDS or Mark Francois so they can be cabinet ministers, or is it something even more sinister?
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
No one is doubting he could win (he's red for me but that's an emotional and dear god does no one have any common sense bet).
People are saying he is an utter, utter twat, lying scumbag and is wholly unfit to be our PM.
That is the central thrust of most peoples' comments on PB.
No need to take it out on HYUFD though. He has his way of looking at politics, and he’s entitled to it. Plenty of people rely on polling to back up their views, although not to the extent he does, so I’m surprised at the venom thrown his way
HYUFD the only Borisbot we've got. If anyone else wants to speak up for the fat lying sack of shit I'm sure they'll get a hoofing as well.
Finally out of central LA thank god. Back to San Diego for the first time in a while, it's still probably the only place I'd consider moving to in the US, well that and Venice/Santa Monica.
LA is a horrible place
Good morning Malc
My wife and I suffered an 8 hour power outage on the 6th floor of our LA hotel completely trapped and used the in room fridge to keep our spirits up. At the same time Arnold Schwarzenegger was trying to hold a celebrity party on the ground floor
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
Oh, believe me, don't I know.
It's not throwing it around. He needs professional help. The last thing he needs right now are the keys to No 10.
Leading this country at any time and especially through Brexit is a very serious topic and shouldn't be thrown around.
You don’t know he needs professional help.
You are saying that, without meaningful evidence, because you don’t like his policies
Johnson is 1.25-1,26 as next Tory Leader, and 1.27-1.28 as next PM.
These are much too close together. There is a gap between Johnson being chosen by the Tory Membership and Johnson being proposed to the Queen by Mrs May as commanding the confidence of the House. There may already be conversations about this between the Queen and Mrs May at the weekly audiences.
I can Mrs May stepping done as Tory leader in late July but staying on as PM during the recess. It will be an interesting conference season!
If the membership elect Boris TM will have no choice but to step down. On his election she automatically ceases to be in Office
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
No one is doubting he could win (he's red for me but that's an emotional and dear god does no one have any common sense bet).
People are saying he is an utter, utter twat, lying scumbag and is wholly unfit to be our PM.
That is the central thrust of most peoples' comments on PB.
No need to take it out on HYUFD though. He has his way of looking at politics, and he’s entitled to it. Plenty of people rely on polling to back up their views, although not to the extent he does, so I’m surprised at the venom thrown his way
HYUFD the only Borisbot we've got. If anyone else wants to speak up for the fat lying sack of shit I'm sure they'll get a hoofing as well.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yes
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?
Boris is technically not lying by sticking to a Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st position to win the election.
Once that is done he can then shift but only once he has the majority can his true intentions be made clear
Thats a new one. How can anyone be 'technically not lying'
Either he is lying or not
Sophistry would, I think, be “technically not lying”
The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson. Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendum
You predict that this occurs by the end of October. The WA needs to be agreed by parliament. So either Mr Johnson has to persuade more people to vote for the WA or win an election with enough time to spare to pass the WA.
He wins the election
With what probability do you think that the Conservative Party will win 330 seats in a general election under the leadership of Mr Johnson held before the middle of October?
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
No one is doubting he could win (he's red for me but that's an emotional and dear god does no one have any common sense bet).
People are saying he is an utter, utter twat, lying scumbag and is wholly unfit to be our PM.
That is the central thrust of most peoples' comments on PB.
No need to take it out on HYUFD though. He has his way of looking at politics, and he’s entitled to it. Plenty of people rely on polling to back up their views, although not to the extent he does, so I’m surprised at the venom thrown his way
I don't think it is venom. It is more wry amusement. HYUFD performs a valuable service here as a sort of litmus paper.
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
Like cancer.
Indeed. Which is why I stated that it was gossip and hearsay.
It's utterly depressing that Boris and the lunatics in the ERG have still not cottoned on to the idea that no deal means, well, no deal. If there is no deal there is no transition. If there is no transition then there are tariffs based on MFN rates.
This is so basic and obvious that even Liam Fox has got it. Once again the consequences of tariffs etc are being overstated. In Hunt's case of the steel wheel manufacturer it is very likely that a reduction in the value of sterling would ensure that they remain competitive. There will also be significant import substitution opportunities in relation to the massive quantity of goods that we import from the EU.
The economic effects are being overstated. But that is an entirely different thing from pretending/lying about whether they would exist at all. That is just dishonest.
What you presume that Boris really means is not May's deal but some other deal that will have a transition period. At which point we get into unicorn territory.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
No one is doubting he could win (he's red for me but that's an emotional and dear god does no one have any common sense bet).
People are saying he is an utter, utter twat, lying scumbag and is wholly unfit to be our PM.
That is the central thrust of most peoples' comments on PB.
No need to take it out on HYUFD though. He has his way of looking at politics, and he’s entitled to it. Plenty of people rely on polling to back up their views, although not to the extent he does, so I’m surprised at the venom thrown his way
HYUFD the only Borisbot we've got. If anyone else wants to speak up for the fat lying sack of shit I'm sure they'll get a hoofing as well.
Shows how unrepresentative the place is then doesn’t it?
Shame hoofings aren’t given to people who consistently advise big odds on losing bets rather than those who warn against them.
Johnson is 1.25-1,26 as next Tory Leader, and 1.27-1.28 as next PM.
These are much too close together. There is a gap between Johnson being chosen by the Tory Membership and Johnson being proposed to the Queen by Mrs May as commanding the confidence of the House. There may already be conversations about this between the Queen and Mrs May at the weekly audiences.
I can Mrs May stepping done as Tory leader in late July but staying on as PM during the recess. It will be an interesting conference season!
If the membership elect Boris TM will have no choice but to step down. On his election she automatically ceases to be in Office
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yes
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?
Boris is technically not lying by sticking to a Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st position to win the election.
Once that is done he can then shift but only once he has the majority can his true intentions be made clear
Oh my Goodness, have you really read what you just wrote. You are saying it is OK for him to lie about this to win the election with the gullible faithful. I always said Brexit was like a very irrational religion. Boris is clearly one of it's deities. God spare us from false prophets!
Boris will deliver a GB FTA and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop.
Boris if he wins the leadership though and gets a majority will ignore the DUP and Patel and Francois though, member he voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 unlike them.
He needs to win the leadership and a majority first though
Johnson is 1.25-1,26 as next Tory Leader, and 1.27-1.28 as next PM.
These are much too close together. There is a gap between Johnson being chosen by the Tory Membership and Johnson being proposed to the Queen by Mrs May as commanding the confidence of the House. There may already be conversations about this between the Queen and Mrs May at the weekly audiences.
I can Mrs May stepping done as Tory leader in late July but staying on as PM during the recess. It will be an interesting conference season!
If the membership elect Boris TM will have no choice but to step down. On his election she automatically ceases to be in Office
The office of leader of the Conservative party yes, but a lot of speculation about when and if he gets invited to the palace to be appointed PM has occurred on here.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably opposed to anything that treats NI differently to the mainland. If you think that a referendum will make MPs fall in line behind the winning position, then I suggest you recap the last few years of British politics.
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP support
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
I normally disagree with HYUFD, and think his certainty in the future is infuriating and a broken clock is right twice a day ... but with Boris he deserves some credit in the same way the late Plato deserved credit for seeing in America what was happening with Trump.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
No one is doubting he could win (he's red for me but that's an emotional and dear god does no one have any common sense bet).
People are saying he is an utter, utter twat, lying scumbag and is wholly unfit to be our PM.
That is the central thrust of most peoples' comments on PB.
No need to take it out on HYUFD though. He has his way of looking at politics, and he’s entitled to it. Plenty of people rely on polling to back up their views, although not to the extent he does, so I’m surprised at the venom thrown his way
I don't think it is venom. It is more wry amusement. HYUFD performs a valuable service here as a sort of litmus paper.
If it were a female socialist on the end of it, we’d call it bullying. Just proves that every society needs a scapegoat.
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
Oh, believe me, don't I know.
It's not throwing it around. He needs professional help. The last thing he needs right now are the keys to No 10.
Leading this country at any time and especially through Brexit is a very serious topic and shouldn't be thrown around.
You don’t know he needs professional help.
You are saying that, without meaningful evidence, because you don’t like his policies
That is disgusting and contemptible
People said worse about Gordon Brown, somehow Tories found that ok.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
Thanks Isam, yes I not bothered by not following the PB herd
What's the equivalent to the invasion of Poland to justify the hardship that we will endure and overcome?
The Lisbon Treaty. Which should have had a referendum but Tony Blair and Gordon Brown reneged on that manifesto commitment due to knowing they would lose it. That started the insurmountable pressure that led to the referendum that was won by Leave
So, in the dark nights ahead, I can say to myself, "this is all worth it, because now we are not subject to Qualified Majority Voting for Sport and Culture."
Johnson is 1.25-1,26 as next Tory Leader, and 1.27-1.28 as next PM.
These are much too close together. There is a gap between Johnson being chosen by the Tory Membership and Johnson being proposed to the Queen by Mrs May as commanding the confidence of the House. There may already be conversations about this between the Queen and Mrs May at the weekly audiences.
I can Mrs May stepping done as Tory leader in late July but staying on as PM during the recess. It will be an interesting conference season!
If the membership elect Boris TM will have no choice but to step down. On his election she automatically ceases to be in Office
In Office as Tory Party Leader. But she remains PM until the next PM kisses the hand of the Queen and takes over the nuclear codes. And that won't happen until it is clear that they command the confidence of the house.
Johnson is 1.25-1,26 as next Tory Leader, and 1.27-1.28 as next PM.
These are much too close together. There is a gap between Johnson being chosen by the Tory Membership and Johnson being proposed to the Queen by Mrs May as commanding the confidence of the House. There may already be conversations about this between the Queen and Mrs May at the weekly audiences.
I can Mrs May stepping done as Tory leader in late July but staying on as PM during the recess. It will be an interesting conference season!
If the membership elect Boris TM will have no choice but to step down. On his election she automatically ceases to be in Office
The office of leader of the Conservative party yes, but a lot of speculation about when and if he gets invited to the palace to be appointed PM has occurred on here.
Yes from some but I expect TM will go to the Palace on the announcement and Boris will be following her. Anything can happen after that
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
Oh, believe me, don't I know.
It's not throwing it around. He needs professional help. The last thing he needs right now are the keys to No 10.
Leading this country at any time and especially through Brexit is a very serious topic and shouldn't be thrown around.
You don’t know he needs professional help.
You are saying that, without meaningful evidence, because you don’t like his policies
That is disgusting and contemptible
I think it is fair to say that the evidence suggest he is temperamentally unsuited to the role of PM, and equally importantly there is no strong evidence that he has any of the required skills for such an important leadership position. The latter and former may even become apparent to the undemocratic electorate of my fellow conservative party members. As I said the other day, I wouldn't put such a man in charge of a parish council. The fact that our system is so weak that he is serious contender says it needs substantial reform.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably opposed to anything that treats NI differently to the mainland. If you think that a referendum will make MPs fall in line behind the winning position, then I suggest you recap the last few years of British politics.
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP support
What polling suggests that's a likely outcome?
Some does, some does not but without a Tory majority the WA will not pass and only Boris can get a Tory majority
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
I normally disagree with HYUFD, and think his certainty in the future is infuriating and a broken clock is right twice a day ... but with Boris he deserves some credit in the same way the late Plato deserved credit for seeing in America what was happening with Trump.
I'm actually curious what the first major hiccup or scandal will be for Hunt. Hes bound to have one.
His apparent past support of homeopathy worries me, particularly as he was health secretary, but happy to give him the benefit of the doubt re his excuses for this, although my pen would not have been anywhere near anything to do with it.
The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson. Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendum
You predict that this occurs by the end of October. The WA needs to be agreed by parliament. So either Mr Johnson has to persuade more people to vote for the WA or win an election with enough time to spare to pass the WA.
He wins the election
With what probability do you think that the Conservative Party will win 330 seats in a general election under the leadership of Mr Johnson held before the middle of October?
Genuine question, but a rough estimate will do.
Plus another 25 to be able to outvote the head bangers
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
No one is doubting he could win (he's red for me but that's an emotional and dear god does no one have any common sense bet).
People are saying he is an utter, utter twat, lying scumbag and is wholly unfit to be our PM.
That is the central thrust of most peoples' comments on PB.
No need to take it out on HYUFD though. He has his way of looking at politics, and he’s entitled to it. Plenty of people rely on polling to back up their views, although not to the extent he does, so I’m surprised at the venom thrown his way
I am not taking it out on HYUFD I have a great deal of respect for him plus he seeks elected office and is displaying loyalty which in its way is admirable (and no different from Priti this morning).
It is however legitimate to propose that there are different interpretations of Boris' behaviour which are relevant factors in his proposed PM-ship. Saying to one of the recipients that Boris appears to be saying different things to different people, and each group believes vehemently in whatever version they have been told, is not taking it out on anyone.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably opposed to anything that treats NI differently to the mainland. If you think that a referendum will make MPs fall in line behind the winning position, then I suggest you recap the last few years of British politics.
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP support
What polling suggests that's a likely outcome?
Some does, some does not but without a Tory majority the WA will not pass and only Boris can get a Tory majority
The most recent polling suggests without Brexit the Tories get massacred in a GE - which may be why Hunt says he won't call one.
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
Oh, believe me, don't I know.
It's not throwing it around. He needs professional help. The last thing he needs right now are the keys to No 10.
Leading this country at any time and especially through Brexit is a very serious topic and shouldn't be thrown around.
You don’t know he needs professional help.
You are saying that, without meaningful evidence, because you don’t like his policies
That is disgusting and contemptible
People said worse about Gordon Brown, somehow Tories found that ok.
Though that didn't start from Tories, it started form his colleagues. Mrs Rochester in the attic wasn't it?
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yes
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?
Boris is technically not lying by sticking to a Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st position to win the election.
Once that is done he can then shift but only once he has the majority can his true intentions be made clear
Thats a new one. How can anyone be 'technically not lying'
Either he is lying or not
Sophistry would, I think, be “technically not lying”
sophistry /ˈsɒfɪstri/ noun "the use of clever but false arguments, especially with the intention of deceiving."
In what way is that not lying? To argue that it is technically not lying is itself sophistry i.e. with the intention of deceiving.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
Thanks Isam, yes I not bothered by not following the PB herd
To be fair you are consistent and have an amazing insight into polling and politics
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
Oh, believe me, don't I know.
It's not throwing it around. He needs professional help. The last thing he needs right now are the keys to No 10.
Leading this country at any time and especially through Brexit is a very serious topic and shouldn't be thrown around.
You don’t know he needs professional help.
You are saying that, without meaningful evidence, because you don’t like his policies
That is disgusting and contemptible
I think it is fair to say that the evidence suggest he is temperamentally unsuited to the role of PM, and equally importantly there is no strong evidence that he has any of the required skills for such an important leadership position. The latter and former may even become apparent to the undemocratic electorate of my fellow conservative party members. As I said the other day, I wouldn't put such a man in charge of a parish council. The fact that our system is so weak that he is serious contender says it needs substantial reform.
In 1950s the Conservatives had a membership of 2 million. Now 160K. This is major part of the problem. No longer a widely networked bedrock of a substantial part of society.
Boris and co are hollow men says Ferdinand Mount in Newstatesman this week.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
I normally disagree with HYUFD, and think his certainty in the future is infuriating and a broken clock is right twice a day ... but with Boris he deserves some credit in the same way the late Plato deserved credit for seeing in America what was happening with Trump.
Exactly what I was thinking re Plato. Stuck to her guns on Trump, got dogs abuse, banned from the site then died a lonely woman. It might do people a favour to consider that people who frequently post on social media might be lonely and isolated before they hurl abuse at them on a daily basis.
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
Oh, believe me, don't I know.
It's not throwing it around. He needs professional help. The last thing he needs right now are the keys to No 10.
Leading this country at any time and especially through Brexit is a very serious topic and shouldn't be thrown around.
You don’t know he needs professional help.
You are saying that, without meaningful evidence, because you don’t like his policies
That is disgusting and contemptible
People said worse about Gordon Brown, somehow Tories found that ok.
But that was disgusting and contemptible speculation for THE GOOD OF THE COUNTRY.
Johnson is 1.25-1,26 as next Tory Leader, and 1.27-1.28 as next PM.
These are much too close together. There is a gap between Johnson being chosen by the Tory Membership and Johnson being proposed to the Queen by Mrs May as commanding the confidence of the House. There may already be conversations about this between the Queen and Mrs May at the weekly audiences.
I can Mrs May stepping done as Tory leader in late July but staying on as PM during the recess. It will be an interesting conference season!
If the membership elect Boris TM will have no choice but to step down. On his election she automatically ceases to be in Office
In Office as Tory Party Leader. But she remains PM until the next PM kisses the hand of the Queen and takes over the nuclear codes. And that won't happen until it is clear that they command the confidence of the house.
You may hope so but I see no path for TM not to pass on the office the same day to Boris, if elected
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yes
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?
Boris is technically not lying by sticking to a Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st position to win the election.
Once that is done he can then shift but only once he has the majority can his true intentions be made clear
Thats a new one. How can anyone be 'technically not lying'
Either he is lying or not
Sophistry would, I think, be “technically not lying”
sophistry /ˈsɒfɪstri/ noun "the use of clever but false arguments, especially with the intention of deceiving."
In what way is that not lying? To argue that it is technically not lying is itself sophistry i.e. with the intention of deceiving.
The world as we know it would come to an end without sophistry. And that includes Political Betting.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
Thanks Isam, yes I not bothered by not following the PB herd
To be fair you are consistent and have an amazing insight into polling and politics
That said if, as many on here suspect might be the case, Boris is the only man to get the WA through the HoC, it was a pretty mean trick of him to send Priti out saying the WA was dead.
In a nutshell it encapsulates Boris. Either he is a lying scumbag and the WA is dead, contrary to the impression he has given to, oh I don't know, say, HYUFD; or he is a lying scumbag and the WA is not dead, contrary to the briefing that PP got this morning.
Actually I don't really think he cares as long as he can bluster his way to becoming PM. The rest is details.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
Boris is hiding from scrutiny by refusing to answer our questions on pb.com so HYUFD is acting as his avatar and being the target of people's frustrations.
Corbyn also doesn't answer our questions and leaves that task to TheJezziah.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably opposed to anything that treats NI differently to the mainland. If you think that a referendum will make MPs fall in line behind the winning position, then I suggest you recap the last few years of British politics.
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP support
What polling suggests that's a likely outcome?
Some does, some does not but without a Tory majority the WA will not pass and only Boris can get a Tory majority
The most recent polling suggests without Brexit the Tories get massacred in a GE - which may be why Hunt says he won't call one.
The polling shows the Tories get massacred if we have not left in October not if the Tories seek a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
Oh, believe me, don't I know.
It's not throwing it around. He needs professional help. The last thing he needs right now are the keys to No 10.
Leading this country at any time and especially through Brexit is a very serious topic and shouldn't be thrown around.
You don’t know he needs professional help.
You are saying that, without meaningful evidence, because you don’t like his policies
That is disgusting and contemptible
People said worse about Gordon Brown, somehow Tories found that ok.
Though that didn't start from Tories, it started form his colleagues. Mrs Rochester in the attic wasn't it?
Not sure I get the significance of where it starts. All this stuff about Boris is coming from those that have worked with him. For example, Gove's remarks last time around.
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
Oh, believe me, don't I know.
It's not throwing it around. He needs professional help. The last thing he needs right now are the keys to No 10.
Leading this country at any time and especially through Brexit is a very serious topic and shouldn't be thrown around.
You don’t know he needs professional help.
You are saying that, without meaningful evidence, because you don’t like his policies
That is disgusting and contemptible
Disgusting and contemptible are rather OTT, Charles, and not your finest response.
Whilst it's true that I don't 'know' he needs professional help, the evidence seems strong that he's in an emotional state at the moment. I also studied his body language yesterday and drew the same conclusion before seeing the piece in the Mail.
You can deny this until you're blue in the face, but he is clearly in a state. His children are estranged from him. He's missing their mother and his lover hit the roof about something she saw on his laptop.
Is this the state of mind and being we need in our Prime Minister to steer us through Brexit?
No.
He needs to be getting professional help not getting the keys to No.10
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
No one is doubting he could win (he's red for me but that's an emotional and dear god does no one have any common sense bet).
People are saying he is an utter, utter twat, lying scumbag and is wholly unfit to be our PM.
That is the central thrust of most peoples' comments on PB.
No need to take it out on HYUFD though. He has his way of looking at politics, and he’s entitled to it. Plenty of people rely on polling to back up their views, although not to the extent he does, so I’m surprised at the venom thrown his way
HYUFD the only Borisbot we've got. If anyone else wants to speak up for the fat lying sack of shit I'm sure they'll get a hoofing as well.
Philip Thompson, Gin etc all also pro Boris
I'm no borisbot though. I'll back Boris when I agree with him and criticise him when I don't.
I think he is making a terrible mistake giving the impression he is refusing debates especially after May last time.
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
Oh, believe me, don't I know.
It's not throwing it around. He needs professional help. The last thing he needs right now are the keys to No 10.
Leading this country at any time and especially through Brexit is a very serious topic and shouldn't be thrown around.
You don’t know he needs professional help.
You are saying that, without meaningful evidence, because you don’t like his policies
That is disgusting and contemptible
People said worse about Gordon Brown, somehow Tories found that ok.
I don’t speak for Tories just myself
I recall only 2 “mental health” issues discussed about Brown
One was speculation about autism and whether he was taking MAO-A inhibitors. That was unacceptable
The other was phone throwing/bullying which I see as an action which can be criticised although it could be a side effect of MAO-A usage.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
No one is doubting he could win (he's red for me but that's an emotional and dear god does no one have any common sense bet).
People are saying he is an utter, utter twat, lying scumbag and is wholly unfit to be our PM.
That is the central thrust of most peoples' comments on PB.
No need to take it out on HYUFD though. He has his way of looking at politics, and he’s entitled to it. Plenty of people rely on polling to back up their views, although not to the extent he does, so I’m surprised at the venom thrown his way
I am not taking it out on HYUFD I have a great deal of respect for him plus he seeks elected office and is displaying loyalty which in its way is admirable (and no different from Priti this morning).
It is however legitimate to propose that there are different interpretations of Boris' behaviour which are relevant factors in his proposed PM-ship. Saying to one of the recipients that Boris appears to be saying different things to different people, and each group believes vehemently in whatever version they have been told, is not taking it out on anyone.
I think that like many politicians and other people in the public eye Johnson has a powerful need to be liked, and this leads him to say different things to different audiences. That was my strong impression on the one occasion that I have met him, when he was eager to agree with me even though I was criticising what he had said earlier. Most politicians also have strong beliefs themselves which tends to temper this tendency to say whatever will appeal to the audience immediately in front of them. Perhaps that is what sets Johnson apart.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
I normally disagree with HYUFD, and think his certainty in the future is infuriating and a broken clock is right twice a day ... but with Boris he deserves some credit in the same way the late Plato deserved credit for seeing in America what was happening with Trump.
Exactly what I was thinking re Plato. Stuck to her guns on Trump, got dogs abuse, banned from the site then died a lonely woman. It might do people a favour to consider that people who frequently post on social media might be lonely and isolated before they hurl abuse at them on a daily basis.
Plato was certainly right on Trump, I believe she did have a brother though but otherwise cannot comment on her personal situation
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
Oh, believe me, don't I know.
It's not throwing it around. He needs professional help. The last thing he needs right now are the keys to No 10.
Leading this country at any time and especially through Brexit is a very serious topic and shouldn't be thrown around.
You don’t know he needs professional help.
You are saying that, without meaningful evidence, because you don’t like his policies
That is disgusting and contemptible
I think it is fair to say that the evidence suggest he is temperamentally unsuited to the role of PM, and equally importantly there is no strong evidence that he has any of the required skills for such an important leadership position. The latter and former may even become apparent to the undemocratic electorate of my fellow conservative party members. As I said the other day, I wouldn't put such a man in charge of a parish council. The fact that our system is so weak that he is serious contender says it needs substantial reform.
In 1950s the Conservatives had a membership of 2 million. Now 160K. This is major part of the problem. No longer a widely networked bedrock of a substantial part of society.
Boris and co are hollow men says Ferdinand Mount in Newstatesman this week.
Indeed. It is the same problem for both parties. Their membership is an extreme parody of their actual supporters, and "normal" people in general. Leaders should be selected by the MPs as MPs represent actual voters, not fanatical unelected members. Sadly, I don't think we can turn the clock back.
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
Oh, believe me, don't I know.
It's not throwing it around. He needs professional help. The last thing he needs right now are the keys to No 10.
Leading this country at any time and especially through Brexit is a very serious topic and shouldn't be thrown around.
You don’t know he needs professional help.
You are saying that, without meaningful evidence, because you don’t like his policies
That is disgusting and contemptible
I think it is fair to say that the evidence suggest he is temperamentally unsuited to the role of PM, and equally importantly there is no strong evidence that he has any of the required skills for such an important leadership position. The latter and former may even become apparent to the undemocratic electorate of my fellow conservative party members. As I said the other day, I wouldn't put such a man in charge of a parish council. The fact that our system is so weak that he is serious contender says it needs substantial reform.
Yes, and I would tend to agree. That’s not what @Mysticrose said!
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yes
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?
Boris is technically not lying by sticking to a Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st position to win the election.
Once that is done he can then shift but only once he has the majority can his true intentions be made clear
Thats a new one. How can anyone be 'technically not lying'
Either he is lying or not
Sophistry would, I think, be “technically not lying”
sophistry /ˈsɒfɪstri/ noun "the use of clever but false arguments, especially with the intention of deceiving."
In what way is that not lying? To argue that it is technically not lying is itself sophistry i.e. with the intention of deceiving.
The world as we know it would come to an end without sophistry. And that includes Political Betting.
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
Oh, believe me, don't I know.
It's not throwing it around. He needs professional help. The last thing he needs right now are the keys to No 10.
Leading this country at any time and especially through Brexit is a very serious topic and shouldn't be thrown around.
You don’t know he needs professional help.
You are saying that, without meaningful evidence, because you don’t like his policies
That is disgusting and contemptible
Disgusting and contemptible are rather OTT, Charles, and not your finest response.
Whilst it's true that I don't 'know' he needs professional help, the evidence seems strong that he's in an emotional state at the moment. I also studied his body language yesterday and drew the same conclusion before seeing the piece in the Mail.
You can deny this until you're blue in the face, but he is clearly in a state. His children are estranged from him. He's missing their mother and his lover hit the roof about something she saw on his laptop.
Is this the state of mind and being we need in our Prime Minister to steer us through Brexit?
No.
He needs to be getting professional help not getting the keys to No.10
"He needs professional help" = perfectly ok to say with zero evidence.
It is "disgusting and contemptible" to say he needs professional help without evidence = "rather OTT"
Incidentally, people like Charles became rather hot under the collar when Gordon Brown was being described as unsuited character-wise. Like Boris he had a violent temper, was a pathological liar and was totally unsuited to the office of Prime Minister.
Which Mike Smithson said all along. And which he's saying about Boris Johnson.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
No one is doubting he could win (he's red for me but that's an emotional and dear god does no one have any common sense bet).
People are saying he is an utter, utter twat, lying scumbag and is wholly unfit to be our PM.
That is the central thrust of most peoples' comments on PB.
No need to take it out on HYUFD though. He has his way of looking at politics, and he’s entitled to it. Plenty of people rely on polling to back up their views, although not to the extent he does, so I’m surprised at the venom thrown his way
I am not taking it out on HYUFD I have a great deal of respect for him plus he seeks elected office and is displaying loyalty which in its way is admirable (and no different from Priti this morning).
It is however legitimate to propose that there are different interpretations of Boris' behaviour which are relevant factors in his proposed PM-ship. Saying to one of the recipients that Boris appears to be saying different things to different people, and each group believes vehemently in whatever version they have been told, is not taking it out on anyone.
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
Oh, believe me, don't I know.
It's not throwing it around. He needs professional help. The last thing he needs right now are the keys to No 10.
Leading this country at any time and especially through Brexit is a very serious topic and shouldn't be thrown around.
You don’t know he needs professional help.
You are saying that, without meaningful evidence, because you don’t like his policies
That is disgusting and contemptible
I think it is fair to say that the evidence suggest he is temperamentally unsuited to the role of PM, and equally importantly there is no strong evidence that he has any of the required skills for such an important leadership position. The latter and former may even become apparent to the undemocratic electorate of my fellow conservative party members. As I said the other day, I wouldn't put such a man in charge of a parish council. The fact that our system is so weak that he is serious contender says it needs substantial reform.
Yes, and I would tend to agree. That’s not what @Mysticrose said!
That's also what I'm saying
He's not only totally unsuited for the job character-wise, he's also clearly in an emotional turmoil at the moment.
You can deny this as much as you like. Go and ask his kids ...
What's the equivalent to the invasion of Poland to justify the hardship that we will endure and overcome?
The Lisbon Treaty. Which should have had a referendum but Tony Blair and Gordon Brown reneged on that manifesto commitment due to knowing they would lose it. That started the insurmountable pressure that led to the referendum that was won by Leave
So, in the dark nights ahead, I can say to myself, "this is all worth it, because now we are not subject to Qualified Majority Voting for Sport and Culture."
I'm sure that will help. Thanks.
Exactly!
We will be able to say that this is all worth it as we can elect and hold responsible those who set our laws whether sport and culture or otherwise. An ancient liberty our ancestors fought a d died for ... but in today's culture it seems maybe having some chlorine that we literally drink in our tap water on chicken is a bridge too far.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
I normally disagree with HYUFD, and think his certainty in the future is infuriating and a broken clock is right twice a day ... but with Boris he deserves some credit in the same way the late Plato deserved credit for seeing in America what was happening with Trump.
Exactly what I was thinking re Plato. Stuck to her guns on Trump, got dogs abuse, banned from the site then died a lonely woman. It might do people a favour to consider that people who frequently post on social media might be lonely and isolated before they hurl abuse at them on a daily basis.
Plato was certainly right on Trump, I believe she did have a brother though but otherwise cannot comment on her personal situation
How was she right on Trump? She supported him, but I don't think she predicted he would win did she? She did seem to be taken in by conspiracies and show tendencies of cult following, which was very worrying. I assume she was banned to protect the site.
I think a psychological profile of Boris Johnson proves rather enlightening.
If you watch his body language and verbal language down the years, you will see the affected bluster which is a defence mechanism. Hitherto it has proved remarkably good deception. People have often fallen for it. They find it charming.
Two days into the leadership contest and he's coming under intense scrutiny. The facade, the charade even, is breaking.
Underneath is someone who is as much of a mess as the back of his car.
Johnson is 1.25-1,26 as next Tory Leader, and 1.27-1.28 as next PM.
These are much too close together. There is a gap between Johnson being chosen by the Tory Membership and Johnson being proposed to the Queen by Mrs May as commanding the confidence of the House. There may already be conversations about this between the Queen and Mrs May at the weekly audiences.
I can Mrs May stepping done as Tory leader in late July but staying on as PM during the recess. It will be an interesting conference season!
If the membership elect Boris TM will have no choice but to step down. On his election she automatically ceases to be in Office
In Office as Tory Party Leader. But she remains PM until the next PM kisses the hand of the Queen and takes over the nuclear codes. And that won't happen until it is clear that they command the confidence of the house.
You may hope so but I see no path for TM not to pass on the office the same day to Boris, if elected
This is a unique occurrence. Never before has a PM been appointed by the membership of a political party (which in effect is what you are proposing) rather than endorsed by parliament or in a general election.
It raises enormous constitutional issues which the Queen and her advisers will be very aware of. Mrs May is not exactly a keen supporter of Johnson and knows he's lying.
The path you are looking for is that Mrs May immediately steps down as leader of the Tory Party, congratulates Johnson on his appointment as Leader, and announces an amendable business motion to test that he commands the support of the House which he loses. It is an amendable motion so other potential candidates can also be tested and a new PM will emerge.
If all fail to command the confidence of the House, then Mrs May stays in place as PM and calls a General election for September.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
I normally disagree with HYUFD, and think his certainty in the future is infuriating and a broken clock is right twice a day ... but with Boris he deserves some credit in the same way the late Plato deserved credit for seeing in America what was happening with Trump.
Exactly what I was thinking re Plato. Stuck to her guns on Trump, got dogs abuse, banned from the site then died a lonely woman. It might do people a favour to consider that people who frequently post on social media might be lonely and isolated before they hurl abuse at them on a daily basis.
Plato was certainly right on Trump, I believe she did have a brother though but otherwise cannot comment on her personal situation
I just thought we must be all retired and had nothing better to do all day than be on this and other such sites.
The polling shows the Tories get massacred if we have not left in October not if the Tories seek a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal
This is a great example of the limits of hypothetical polling. For the sake of argument, let's imagine that Johnson made Brexit happen, but it took until January rather than being done in October.
Now fast forward to a general election in 2022. How many voters don't mind that the Tories failed to leave on the original schedule (referendum + 2 years), and also on the second schedule (A50+2-years) but are angry that it didn't happen on the 3rd schedule (A50+2.5 years) and not swayed by the fact that it *did* happen on the 4th schedule (A5- + 2.75 years)? I would say the answer is just less than 1.
Johnson is 1.25-1,26 as next Tory Leader, and 1.27-1.28 as next PM.
These are much too close together. There is a gap between Johnson being chosen by the Tory Membership and Johnson being proposed to the Queen by Mrs May as commanding the confidence of the House. There may already be conversations about this between the Queen and Mrs May at the weekly audiences.
I can Mrs May stepping done as Tory leader in late July but staying on as PM during the recess. It will be an interesting conference season!
As previously discussed, I cannot see this happening though I concede it is technically possible. I am not sure what happens with the FTPA timetable if things go as you suggest and Theresa May's government loses the confidence vote Labour would table just before the recess starts.
1) 22/7 Boris becomes party leader; May stays PM; Labour tables confidence motion 2) 23/7 100 of the 160 MPs who voted for Boris visit John Major's dentist so government loses confidence vote 3) 23/7 FTPA 14-day countdown starts 4) 25/7 House rises for summer recess till 3/9 5) I guess the Commons could not rise until the 14 days is up (or HMG wins a confidence vote) but the FTPA, to this non-lawyer, seems silent on the matter.
However, because May hanging on to keep Boris out would precipitate civil war in the party and a general election, I really cannot see it happening. If you think it will, then back Jeremy Corbyn to be next prime minister.
What's the equivalent to the invasion of Poland to justify the hardship that we will endure and overcome?
The Lisbon Treaty. Which should have had a referendum but Tony Blair and Gordon Brown reneged on that manifesto commitment due to knowing they would lose it. That started the insurmountable pressure that led to the referendum that was won by Leave
So, in the dark nights ahead, I can say to myself, "this is all worth it, because now we are not subject to Qualified Majority Voting for Sport and Culture."
I'm sure that will help. Thanks.
Exactly!
We will be able to say that this is all worth it as we can elect and hold responsible those who set our laws whether sport and culture or otherwise. An ancient liberty our ancestors fought a d died for ... but in today's culture it seems maybe having some chlorine that we literally drink in our tap water on chicken is a bridge too far.
Well this gets to the heart of the issue. I am comfortable with politicians from Vienna being involved in setting rules on Financial Services because I feel part of the same common European family and I trust that they are comfortable with politicians from Wessex being involved in setting rules on Animal Welfare, etc.
This is exactly as I accept that a politician from Yorkshire - a county I've spent less time in than Vienna - will have a say on my tax rates, because the politicians I [try to] elect are accepted as having the same say on their tax rates.
I can understand that you might not feel part of a European family (or even a British one) as opposed to part of England. I do object to being called undemocratic for my view.
The polling shows the Tories get massacred if we have not left in October not if the Tories seek a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal
This is a great example of the limits of hypothetical polling. For the sake of argument, let's imagine that Johnson made Brexit happen, but it took until January rather than being done in October.
Now fast forward to a general election in 2022. How many voters don't mind that the Tories failed to leave on the original schedule (referendum + 2 years), and also on the second schedule (A50+2-years) but are angry that it didn't happen on the 3rd schedule (A50+2.5 years) and not swayed by the fact that it *did* happen on the 4th schedule (A5- + 2.75 years)? I would say the answer is just less than 1.
That assumes that once we have extended we have then left before the following General Election. Which given the makeup of this Parliament can not be guaranteed.
At the moment there are a large number of voters angry and feeling betrayed by the fact that we didn't leave on the A50+2 years schedule who are willing it seems to give Boris a chance. But after an extension it becomes Catch 22 again: can't have an election before Brexit, can't Brexit without an election.
The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossible
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.
Had the polling of party members in past leadership campaigns been inaccurate?
It feels like a role reversal when I'm more sceptical of polling than you.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
I normally disagree with HYUFD, and think his certainty in the future is infuriating and a broken clock is right twice a day ... but with Boris he deserves some credit in the same way the late Plato deserved credit for seeing in America what was happening with Trump.
Exactly what I was thinking re Plato. Stuck to her guns on Trump, got dogs abuse, banned from the site then died a lonely woman. It might do people a favour to consider that people who frequently post on social media might be lonely and isolated before they hurl abuse at them on a daily basis.
Plato was certainly right on Trump, I believe she did have a brother though but otherwise cannot comment on her personal situation
How was she right on Trump? She supported him, but I don't think she predicted he would win did she? She did seem to be taken in by conspiracies and show tendencies of cult following, which was very worrying. I assume she was banned to protect the site.
What Plato did was feed stuff into the forum that illustrated how a certain demographic in America was thinking and feeling, which we wouldn't otherwise have seen. A lot of it was wacky stuff but it did nevertheless suggest that there were views not being picked up my mainstream media that partly explained Trump's unexpected success. I don't recall whether she herself predicted anything in particular, but she certainly tapped into new streams of opinion.
What's the equivalent to the invasion of Poland to justify the hardship that we will endure and overcome?
The Lisbon Treaty. Which should have had a referendum but Tony Blair and Gordon Brown reneged on that manifesto commitment due to knowing they would lose it. That started the insurmountable pressure that led to the referendum that was won by Leave
So, in the dark nights ahead, I can say to myself, "this is all worth it, because now we are not subject to Qualified Majority Voting for Sport and Culture."
I'm sure that will help. Thanks.
Exactly!
We will be able to say that this is all worth it as we can elect and hold responsible those who set our laws whether sport and culture or otherwise. An ancient liberty our ancestors fought a d died for ... but in today's culture it seems maybe having some chlorine that we literally drink in our tap water on chicken is a bridge too far.
Well this gets to the heart of the issue. I am comfortable with politicians from Vienna being involved in setting rules on Financial Services because I feel part of the same common European family and I trust that they are comfortable with politicians from Wessex being involved in setting rules on Animal Welfare, etc.
This is exactly as I accept that a politician from Yorkshire - a county I've spent less time in than Vienna - will have a say on my tax rates, because the politicians I [try to] elect are accepted as having the same say on their tax rates.
I can understand that you might not feel part of a European family (or even a British one) as opposed to part of England. I do object to being called undemocratic for my view.
I've spent more time in Melbourne than I have Vienna. We don't share our laws with Melbourne.
What is undemocratic is those who pretend they don't want "a country called Europe" with all the accountability that comes with it but then are happy with having the laws set like that. Given Vienna is literally another country I'm not comfortable having our laws set by their politicians without our say via QMV.
If we want to be in a country called Europe then that is reasonable. But it should be by choice and genuinely made.
What's the equivalent to the invasion of Poland to justify the hardship that we will endure and overcome?
The Lisbon Treaty. Which should have had a referendum but Tony Blair and Gordon Brown reneged on that manifesto commitment due to knowing they would lose it. That started the insurmountable pressure that led to the referendum that was won by Leave
So, in the dark nights ahead, I can say to myself, "this is all worth it, because now we are not subject to Qualified Majority Voting for Sport and Culture."
I'm sure that will help. Thanks.
Exactly!
We will be able to say that this is all worth it as we can elect and hold responsible those who set our laws whether sport and culture or otherwise. An ancient liberty our ancestors fought a d died for ... but in today's culture it seems maybe having some chlorine that we literally drink in our tap water on chicken is a bridge too far.
I would have some sympathy for that view if we were subjugated into accepting terrible rules that were ruining our lives, which ones are ruining your life? Please don’t give me a lecture about freedom just a list of the things which have made your life intolerable
Meanwhile somewhere in Brussels Donald Tusk is sitting at his desk, head in hands, quietly muttering to himself: “What part of ‘Don’t waste this time’ did the British not understand?”
Johnson is 1.25-1,26 as next Tory Leader, and 1.27-1.28 as next PM.
These are much too close together. There is a gap between Johnson being chosen by the Tory Membership and Johnson being proposed to the Queen by Mrs May as commanding the confidence of the House. There may already be conversations about this between the Queen and Mrs May at the weekly audiences.
I can Mrs May stepping done as Tory leader in late July but staying on as PM during the recess. It will be an interesting conference season!
As previously discussed, I cannot see this happening though I concede it is technically possible. I am not sure what happens with the FTPA timetable if things go as you suggest and Theresa May's government loses the confidence vote Labour would table just before the recess starts.
1) 22/7 Boris becomes party leader; May stays PM; Labour tables confidence motion 2) 23/7 100 of the 160 MPs who voted for Boris visit John Major's dentist so government loses confidence vote 3) 23/7 FTPA 14-day countdown starts 4) 25/7 House rises for summer recess till 3/9 5) I guess the Commons could not rise until the 14 days is up (or HMG wins a confidence vote) but the FTPA, to this non-lawyer, seems silent on the matter.
However, because May hanging on to keep Boris out would precipitate civil war in the party and a general election, I really cannot see it happening. If you think it will, then back Jeremy Corbyn to be next prime minister.
Interesting. Suppose Mrs May immediately introduces an amendable business motion to test that Johnson has the confidence of the House and Corbyn interrupts with a VONC in Mrs May's government. What takes precedence? I guess the Speaker decides.
I think in this circumstance, Corbyn's VONC would get precedence but would lose because Mrs May's business motion, that would follow, would give Parliament the opportunity to choose the next PM and government.
The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossible
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.
Had the polling of party members in past leadership campaigns been inaccurate?
It feels like a role reversal when I'm more sceptical of polling than you.
I’m sceptical of polling on nationwide hypotheticals, but I’m not really when it comes to upcoming closed membership ballots. I’d have thought the polling for them was a lot more accurate, because of the engagement factor.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
No one is doubting he could win (he's red for me but that's an emotional and dear god does no one have any common sense bet).
People are saying he is an utter, utter twat, lying scumbag and is wholly unfit to be our PM.
That is the central thrust of most peoples' comments on PB.
No need to take it out on HYUFD though. He has his way of looking at politics, and he’s entitled to it. Plenty of people rely on polling to back up their views, although not to the extent he does, so I’m surprised at the venom thrown his way
HY's insight into how many Tory members are thinking is informative and useful.
The fact remains that a lot of this thinking is idiotic, and if HY is going to advance it here he'll get the same challenge and scrutiny that his idol should be getting if only he wasn't in hiding skulking somewhere in Sussex avoiding the media.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
I normally disagree with HYUFD, and think his certainty in the future is infuriating and a broken clock is right twice a day ... but with Boris he deserves some credit in the same way the late Plato deserved credit for seeing in America what was happening with Trump.
Exactly what I was thinking re Plato. Stuck to her guns on Trump.
She didn't predict Trump would win. She just posted anti Hillary conspiracy theories.
What's the equivalent to the invasion of Poland to justify the hardship that we will endure and overcome?
The Lisbon Treaty. Which should have had a referendum but Tony Blair and Gordon Brown reneged on that manifesto commitment due to knowing they would lose it. That started the insurmountable pressure that led to the referendum that was won by Leave
So, in the dark nights ahead, I can say to myself, "this is all worth it, because now we are not subject to Qualified Majority Voting for Sport and Culture."
I'm sure that will help. Thanks.
Exactly!
We will be able to say that this is all worth it as we can elect and hold responsible those who set our laws whether sport and culture or otherwise. An ancient liberty our ancestors fought a d died for ... but in today's culture it seems maybe having some chlorine that we literally drink in our tap water on chicken is a bridge too far.
I would have some sympathy for that view if we were subjugated into accepting terrible rules that were ruining our lives, which ones are ruining your life? Please don’t give me a lecture about freedom just a list of the things which have made your life intolerable
No I will give you a lecture about freedom. Read 1984 to start with.
It doesn't matter one jot whether laws are terrible or good. Our liberties are important. I would rather have an incompetent elected PM we could replace than a competent "benign dictator" that we couldn't.
The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossible
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iirc
A poll of 800 Tory members is polling 0.5% of the electorate. That must be a bonus, and I’d have thought people that answer would be more representative of the electorate than those who answer Westminster VI polls, as I think the latter tend to over represent the politically engaged.
With sampling it is all about how representative the sample is rather than how big the sample is. Neither of the parties will release their membership lists to polling companies, so it is all down to how you locate party members. I imagine Labour Party members are easier to find.
I've spent more time in Melbourne than I have Vienna. We don't share our laws with Melbourne.
What is undemocratic is those who pretend they don't want "a country called Europe" with all the accountability that comes with it but then are happy with having the laws set like that. Given Vienna is literally another country I'm not comfortable having our laws set by their politicians without our say via QMV.
If we want to be in a country called Europe then that is reasonable. But it should be by choice and genuinely made.
We do have a say via QMV in the council (and via directly elected MEPs in the parliament). We have a polity called Europe.
At the moment there are a large number of voters angry and feeling betrayed by the fact that we didn't leave on the A50+2 years schedule who are willing it seems to give Boris a chance. But after an extension it becomes Catch 22 again: can't have an election before Brexit, can't Brexit without an election.
I sort of agree with that, and if they really don't want to do a referendum then that window is definitely their best shot. But I wonder whether their confidence in him will last through a leadership campaign and a subsequent election where everyone from Nigel Farage to Jeremy Corbyn to Liam Fox is saying he's full of shit on this particular subject.
The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossible
T.
?
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iirc
A poll of 800 Tory members is polling 0.5% of the electorate. That must be a bonus, and I’d have thought people that answer would be more representative of the electorate than those who answer Westminster VI polls, as I think the latter tend to over represent the politically engaged.
Statistically the former makes no difference, as the proportion of the population being sampled does not (until you get to much higher levels) have an effect on the accuracy of the sample.
The latter - removing one source of bias from a standard poll as party members are by definition likely to be politically engaged - is a fair point.
On the other hand, it will be more difficult to adjust for any biases in age/sex/class/geography etc. because there isn't data on the distribution of the base population of members.
Apart from class, aren’t the numbers available for the categories in your last paragraph?
I don't think the Tory party publishes this information. There have been some polls used to inform various semi-academic studies, but there must be risks in using one poll's findings to weight another?
I’m sure I’ve recently seen headlines or tweets saying ‘The PM is going to be chosen by a group of 73 year old men when the average age of a voter is 46” or some such, and the memberships of each branch can’t be that hard to find I’d have thought
My take is that polling of smaller, private clubs should be more accurate than that of a country, mainly because of the politically engaged factor
Except that said polling has produced figures for the average age of Tory members ranging between 57 and 72. Which suggests accuracy as a problem.
The polling is likely to be "right" because there is lots of anecdotal evidence that Tory members are breaking heavily in favour of Boris.
I am not however confident that if we were looking at a close run contest, we could put much faith in these membership polls.
What's the equivalent to the invasion of Poland to justify the hardship that we will endure and overcome?
The Lisbon Treaty. Which should have had a referendum but Tony Blair and Gordon Brown reneged on that manifesto commitment due to knowing they would lose it. That started the insurmountable pressure that led to the referendum that was won by Leave
So, in the dark nights ahead, I can say to myself, "this is all worth it, because now we are not subject to Qualified Majority Voting for Sport and Culture."
I'm sure that will help. Thanks.
Exactly!
We will be able to say that this is all worth it as we can elect and hold responsible those who set our laws whether sport and culture or otherwise. An ancient liberty our ancestors fought a d died for ... but in today's culture it seems maybe having some chlorine that we literally drink in our tap water on chicken is a bridge too far.
I would have some sympathy for that view if we were subjugated into accepting terrible rules that were ruining our lives, which ones are ruining your life? Please don’t give me a lecture about freedom just a list of the things which have made your life intolerable
No I will give you a lecture about freedom. Read 1984 to start with.
It doesn't matter one jot whether laws are terrible or good. Our liberties are important. I would rather have an incompetent elected PM we could replace than a competent "benign dictator" that we couldn't.
I've spent more time in Melbourne than I have Vienna. We don't share our laws with Melbourne.
What is undemocratic is those who pretend they don't want "a country called Europe" with all the accountability that comes with it but then are happy with having the laws set like that. Given Vienna is literally another country I'm not comfortable having our laws set by their politicians without our say via QMV.
If we want to be in a country called Europe then that is reasonable. But it should be by choice and genuinely made.
We do have a say via QMV in the council (and via directly elected MEPs in the parliament). We have a polity called Europe.
I think it's a waste of time to try to explain to people who viscerally and emotionally dislike the EU what the EU actually is. The myths are much more comforting.
Meanwhile somewhere in Brussels Donald Tusk is sitting at his desk, head in hands, quietly muttering to himself: “What part of ‘Don’t waste this time’ did the British not understand?”
We aren't wasting the time. What was wasting time was bed blocker May clinging to office when she couldn't command Parliament. She should have lost the confidence vote last December or January. Now we are grappling with the divisions.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
I normally disagree with HYUFD, and think his certainty in the future is infuriating and a broken clock is right twice a day ... but with Boris he deserves some credit in the same way the late Plato deserved credit for seeing in America what was happening with Trump.
Exactly what I was thinking re Plato. Stuck to her guns on Trump, got dogs abuse, banned from the site then died a lonely woman. It might do people a favour to consider that people who frequently post on social media might be lonely and isolated before they hurl abuse at them on a daily basis.
Plato was certainly right on Trump, I believe she did have a brother though but otherwise cannot comment on her personal situation
How was she right on Trump? She supported him, but I don't think she predicted he would win did she? She did seem to be taken in by conspiracies and show tendencies of cult following, which was very worrying. I assume she was banned to protect the site.
What Plato did was feed stuff into the forum that illustrated how a certain demographic in America was thinking and feeling, which we wouldn't otherwise have seen. A lot of it was wacky stuff but it did nevertheless suggest that there were views not being picked up my mainstream media that partly explained Trump's unexpected success. I don't recall whether she herself predicted anything in particular, but she certainly tapped into new streams of opinion.
That is certainly very true.
Once she got banned I started following her on Twitter and then the new forum she moved to (forgotten name now) after she got banned from Twitter. I then started reading some of the more popular posters she was linked to. Some of these were very popular in the Alt-Right world and just barking mad. You just wanted to keep screaming out Occam's Razor to some of the wild deductions made.
The really sad thing was occasionally they did spot something genuine that eventually rose to the surface in the real world months later, but is was swamped by all the nutty stuff.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
I normally disagree with HYUFD, and think his certainty in the future is infuriating and a broken clock is right twice a day ... but with Boris he deserves some credit in the same way the late Plato deserved credit for seeing in America what was happening with Trump.
Exactly what I was thinking re Plato. Stuck to her guns on Trump.
She didn't predict Trump would win. She just posted anti Hillary conspiracy theories.
Who said she predicted he’d win?
She posted stuff that indicated it wasn’t as cut and dried as the accepted narrative suggested, which was true. And she was hounded off the site as a consequence. She had made it clear that she lived in isolation, and her frequency of posting made it obvious the site was a big part of her life.
The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossible
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iirc
A poll of 800 Tory members is polling 0.5% of the electorate. That must be a bonus, and I’d have thought people that answer would be more representative of the electorate than those who answer Westminster VI polls, as I think the latter tend to over represent the politically engaged.
With sampling it is all about how representative the sample is rather than how big the sample is. Neither of the parties will release their membership lists to polling companies, so it is all down to how you locate party members. I imagine Labour Party members are easier to find.
Never been polled but don’t the polling companies ask are you a member of any party, if yes which when they do their routine polling so already know who to go to?
The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossible
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iirc
A poll of 800 Tory members is polling 0.5% of the electorate. That must be a bonus, and I’d have thought people that answer would be more representative of the electorate than those who answer Westminster VI polls, as I think the latter tend to over represent the politically engaged.
With sampling it is all about how representative the sample is rather than how big the sample is. Neither of the parties will release their membership lists to polling companies, so it is all down to how you locate party members. I imagine Labour Party members are easier to find.
From time to time YouGov asks all its panellists - a lot of people - what organisations they are members of. Party membership is therefore self declared, although there isn't any obvious reason why they should be dishonest. The composition of YouGov's panel wont be representative and, unlike normal polling, it isn't obvious how YG can correct for this - applying the usual weightings wont work since Tory members wont reflect the national demographic at all.
Amusing as it is to see the dwindling number of PB Tories engage in a mutual love fest with words like respect and loyalty bandied about as though they even understood them, the truth is that allowing BJ front runner status is a surefire way to tell that the party has taken all leave of its senses.
Coming on top of the "Tories only care about Brexit" poll (in contradistinction to the Union with NI or Scotland, the future of the economy or even the Tory Party itself), it's hard not to reach the conclusion that a crack up so big needs to be treated with some years in an alpine sanatorium.
In any event "you have sat here too long for any good you have been doing."
The country is sick of the irresponsible, self-indulgent drivel emerging from this farce of an internal election. So, by all means opine, criticize, and pretend that this utter goatshag is "historic", but, Miss Desmond, the lights have gone.
Comments
You are saying that, without meaningful evidence, because you don’t like his policies
That is disgusting and contemptible
Genuine question, but a rough estimate will do.
This is so basic and obvious that even Liam Fox has got it. Once again the consequences of tariffs etc are being overstated. In Hunt's case of the steel wheel manufacturer it is very likely that a reduction in the value of sterling would ensure that they remain competitive. There will also be significant import substitution opportunities in relation to the massive quantity of goods that we import from the EU.
The economic effects are being overstated. But that is an entirely different thing from pretending/lying about whether they would exist at all. That is just dishonest.
What you presume that Boris really means is not May's deal but some other deal that will have a transition period. At which point we get into unicorn territory.
Shame hoofings aren’t given to people who consistently advise big odds on losing bets rather than those who warn against them.
Boris if he wins the leadership though and gets a majority will ignore the DUP and Patel and Francois though, member he voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 unlike them.
He needs to win the leadership and a majority first though
I'm sure that will help. Thanks.
It is however legitimate to propose that there are different interpretations of Boris' behaviour which are relevant factors in his proposed PM-ship. Saying to one of the recipients that Boris appears to be saying different things to different people, and each group believes vehemently in whatever version they have been told, is not taking it out on anyone.
/ˈsɒfɪstri/
noun
"the use of clever but false arguments, especially with the intention of deceiving."
In what way is that not lying? To argue that it is technically not lying is itself sophistry i.e. with the intention of deceiving.
Boris and co are hollow men says Ferdinand Mount in Newstatesman this week.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/closing-conservative-mind-boris-johnson-and-hollow-men
In a nutshell it encapsulates Boris. Either he is a lying scumbag and the WA is dead, contrary to the impression he has given to, oh I don't know, say, HYUFD; or he is a lying scumbag and the WA is not dead, contrary to the briefing that PP got this morning.
Actually I don't really think he cares as long as he can bluster his way to becoming PM. The rest is details.
Which of course is the nub of the problem.
Corbyn also doesn't answer our questions and leaves that task to TheJezziah.
Whilst it's true that I don't 'know' he needs professional help, the evidence seems strong that he's in an emotional state at the moment. I also studied his body language yesterday and drew the same conclusion before seeing the piece in the Mail.
You can deny this until you're blue in the face, but he is clearly in a state. His children are estranged from him. He's missing their mother and his lover hit the roof about something she saw on his laptop.
Is this the state of mind and being we need in our Prime Minister to steer us through Brexit?
No.
He needs to be getting professional help not getting the keys to No.10
I think he is making a terrible mistake giving the impression he is refusing debates especially after May last time.
I recall only 2 “mental health” issues discussed about Brown
One was speculation about autism and whether he was taking MAO-A inhibitors. That was unacceptable
The other was phone throwing/bullying which I see as an action which can be criticised although it could be a side effect of MAO-A usage.
It is "disgusting and contemptible" to say he needs professional help without evidence = "rather OTT"
Wow.
Which Mike Smithson said all along. And which he's saying about Boris Johnson.
He's not only totally unsuited for the job character-wise, he's also clearly in an emotional turmoil at the moment.
You can deny this as much as you like. Go and ask his kids ...
(I do have inside track on BJ)
We will be able to say that this is all worth it as we can elect and hold responsible those who set our laws whether sport and culture or otherwise. An ancient liberty our ancestors fought a d died for ... but in today's culture it seems maybe having some chlorine that we literally drink in our tap water on chicken is a bridge too far.
If you watch his body language and verbal language down the years, you will see the affected bluster which is a defence mechanism. Hitherto it has proved remarkably good deception. People have often fallen for it. They find it charming.
Two days into the leadership contest and he's coming under intense scrutiny. The facade, the charade even, is breaking.
Underneath is someone who is as much of a mess as the back of his car.
It raises enormous constitutional issues which the Queen and her advisers will be very aware of. Mrs May is not exactly a keen supporter of Johnson and knows he's lying.
The path you are looking for is that Mrs May immediately steps down as leader of the Tory Party, congratulates Johnson on his appointment as Leader, and announces an amendable business motion to test that he commands the support of the House which he loses. It is an amendable motion so other potential candidates can also be tested and a new PM will emerge.
If all fail to command the confidence of the House, then Mrs May stays in place as PM and calls a General election for September.
Now fast forward to a general election in 2022. How many voters don't mind that the Tories failed to leave on the original schedule (referendum + 2 years), and also on the second schedule (A50+2-years) but are angry that it didn't happen on the 3rd schedule (A50+2.5 years) and not swayed by the fact that it *did* happen on the 4th schedule (A5- + 2.75 years)? I would say the answer is just less than 1.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1143071906700189696
Where is the candidate hiding?
1) 22/7 Boris becomes party leader; May stays PM; Labour tables confidence motion
2) 23/7 100 of the 160 MPs who voted for Boris visit John Major's dentist so government loses confidence vote
3) 23/7 FTPA 14-day countdown starts
4) 25/7 House rises for summer recess till 3/9
5) I guess the Commons could not rise until the 14 days is up (or HMG wins a confidence vote) but the FTPA, to this non-lawyer, seems silent on the matter.
However, because May hanging on to keep Boris out would precipitate civil war in the party and a general election, I really cannot see it happening. If you think it will, then back Jeremy Corbyn to be next prime minister.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7174061/Boris-Carrie-seen-time-police-row.html
This is exactly as I accept that a politician from Yorkshire - a county I've spent less time in than Vienna - will have a say on my tax rates, because the politicians I [try to] elect are accepted as having the same say on their tax rates.
I can understand that you might not feel part of a European family (or even a British one) as opposed to part of England. I do object to being called undemocratic for my view.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/21/boris-could-unlock-backstop-confound-dublins-anglophobic-elite
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/23/boris-johnson-will-swat-snp-like-midge-scotland
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/22/brexiteers-risk-boris-betrayal-unless-play-ferocious-final-hand
At the moment there are a large number of voters angry and feeling betrayed by the fact that we didn't leave on the A50+2 years schedule who are willing it seems to give Boris a chance. But after an extension it becomes Catch 22 again: can't have an election before Brexit, can't Brexit without an election.
What Plato did was feed stuff into the forum that illustrated how a certain demographic in America was thinking and feeling, which we wouldn't otherwise have seen. A lot of it was wacky stuff but it did nevertheless suggest that there were views not being picked up my mainstream media that partly explained Trump's unexpected success. I don't recall whether she herself predicted anything in particular, but she certainly tapped into new streams of opinion.
What is undemocratic is those who pretend they don't want "a country called Europe" with all the accountability that comes with it but then are happy with having the laws set like that. Given Vienna is literally another country I'm not comfortable having our laws set by their politicians without our say via QMV.
If we want to be in a country called Europe then that is reasonable. But it should be by choice and genuinely made.
I think in this circumstance, Corbyn's VONC would get precedence but would lose because Mrs May's business motion, that would follow, would give Parliament the opportunity to choose the next PM and government.
The fact remains that a lot of this thinking is idiotic, and if HY is going to advance it here he'll get the same challenge and scrutiny that his idol should be getting if only he wasn't in hiding skulking somewhere in Sussex avoiding the media.
It doesn't matter one jot whether laws are terrible or good. Our liberties are important. I would rather have an incompetent elected PM we could replace than a competent "benign dictator" that we couldn't.
By Colin Clark, Gordon MP. Douglas Ross, Moray MP, Ross Thomson, Aberdeen South MP'
It's just one extended party political flyer for the Boris party now, isn't it?
The polling is likely to be "right" because there is lots of anecdotal evidence that Tory members are breaking heavily in favour of Boris.
I am not however confident that if we were looking at a close run contest, we could put much faith in these membership polls.
Once she got banned I started following her on Twitter and then the new forum she moved to (forgotten name now) after she got banned from Twitter. I then started reading some of the more popular posters she was linked to. Some of these were very popular in the Alt-Right world and just barking mad. You just wanted to keep screaming out Occam's Razor to some of the wild deductions made.
The really sad thing was occasionally they did spot something genuine that eventually rose to the surface in the real world months later, but is was swamped by all the nutty stuff.
She posted stuff that indicated it wasn’t as cut and dried as the accepted narrative suggested, which was true. And she was hounded off the site as a consequence. She had made it clear that she lived in isolation, and her frequency of posting made it obvious the site was a big part of her life.
Never been polled but don’t the polling companies ask are you a member of any party, if yes which when they do their routine polling so already know who to go to?
https://twitter.com/haggis_uk/status/1143060596587413504?s=21
Coming on top of the "Tories only care about Brexit" poll (in contradistinction to the Union with NI or Scotland, the future of the economy or even the Tory Party itself), it's hard not to reach the conclusion that a crack up so big needs to be treated with some years in an alpine sanatorium.
In any event "you have sat here too long for any good you have been doing."
The country is sick of the irresponsible, self-indulgent drivel emerging from this farce of an internal election. So, by all means opine, criticize, and pretend that this utter goatshag is "historic", but, Miss Desmond, the lights have gone.
Mene Mene tekel upharsin.