That would mean having the election campaign through August - MPs AND journalists (more so journos) would be absolutely furious if they have to miss out on 3-4 weeks of their holidays in August.
And that's why a VONC on 24th/25th July is also fanciful IMO.
I think a lot of people are underestimating how shallow everyone in the Westminster bubble is. They won't sacrifice their holidays for a VONC on day one.
However, 5th September is crunch day. Boris will either have to call a general or face a VONC then.
I have every sympathy with the neighbours. Imagine if you didn't report the distressed screams of the lady next door and she was hospitalized or even murdered. You'd never forgive yourself. Something similar happened to friend of mine. He didn't like his particular neighbour - a known drug dealer and vagabond - but felt compelled to call the police when he saw a group of hoodlums storming through the guy's front door with baseball bats.
Reporting it to the Police was a good decision
That doesn't take away from the fact that sending the details to the Guardian was cynical.
I read on here the other day that an absolute majority of Conservative Party members voted for Farage at the Euros.
Given that, it is IMO impossible for quisling Remainer Hunt to win barring a Johnson scandal of gigantic proportions. 18 illegitimate children in Thailand, something like that.
And even then ...
Rest assured that, were that to be revealed, an army of PBers would be saying, "Personal matter... invasion of privacy... what happens on tour stays on tour... why didn't these women take precautions... why are these politically motivated youths emerging from the woodwork now... 99% of people have done far worse..."
How about we discuss politics rather than character?
You mean Johnson has any beyond ‘I should be PM’ ?
And it’s not as though he’s displayed any willingness to do so himself.
That would mean having the election campaign through August - MPs AND journalists (more so journos) would be absolutely furious if they have to miss out on 3-4 weeks of their holidays in August.
And that's why a VONC on 24th/25th July is also fanciful IMO.
I think a lot of people are underestimating how shallow everyone in the Westminster bubble is. They won't sacrifice their holidays for a VONC on day one.
However, 5th September is crunch day. Boris will either have to call a general or face a VONC then.
I think he will make all the right noises about No Deal but in practice allow himself to be 'forced' into an extension of at least 6 months to conduct a 're-negotiation' - i.e. achieve some cosmetics on the May Deal.
He will gamble (IMO successfully) that neither the DUP nor the ERG hardliners will, at the crunch, bring him down and force an election.
The big question for me is then - will he be able to get the May Deal, now re-branded as the Boris Deal, through parliament at some point in 2020?
That would mean having the election campaign through August - MPs AND journalists (more so journos) would be absolutely furious if they have to miss out on 3-4 weeks of their holidays in August.
And that's why a VONC on 24th/25th July is also fanciful IMO.
I think a lot of people are underestimating how shallow everyone in the Westminster bubble is. They won't sacrifice their holidays for a VONC on day one.
However, 5th September is crunch day. Boris will either have to call a general or face a VONC then.
That would mean having the election campaign through August - MPs AND journalists (more so journos) would be absolutely furious if they have to miss out on 3-4 weeks of their holidays in August.
And that's why a VONC on 24th/25th July is also fanciful IMO.
I think a lot of people are underestimating how shallow everyone in the Westminster bubble is. They won't sacrifice their holidays for a VONC on day one.
However, 5th September is crunch day. Boris will either have to call a general or face a VONC then.
I think he will make all the right noises about No Deal but in practice allow himself to be 'forced' into an extension of at least 6 months to conduct a 're-negotiation' - i.e. achieve some cosmetics on the May Deal.
He will gamble (IMO successfully) that neither the DUP nor the ERG hardliners will, at the crunch, bring him down and force an election.
The big question for me is then - will he be able to get the May Deal, now re-branded as the Boris Deal, through parliament at some point in 2020?
I do give him a fighting chance.
But how will zealous groupies like HY react when they realise 31 October has been one great con - as so many people have told them all along? Tory ratings will plummet.
That would mean having the election campaign through August - MPs AND journalists (more so journos) would be absolutely furious if they have to miss out on 3-4 weeks of their holidays in August.
And that's why a VONC on 24th/25th July is also fanciful IMO.
I think a lot of people are underestimating how shallow everyone in the Westminster bubble is. They won't sacrifice their holidays for a VONC on day one.
However, 5th September is crunch day. Boris will either have to call a general or face a VONC then.
Does a new PM have to have a Queen's speech??
Not the new prime minister but the new session of parliament in September, so in this case it amounts to the same thing.
But that is completely wrong. There is nothing to be gained by the opposition if all those new LibDem voters in the Home Counties go to Labour. The Tories would take a serious hit if the LibDems can recover fifty or so seats in the South and South West. These are seats Labour is never going to win.
That settles it. Wasn't sure if I'd go there on the opening day, but if there's a chance of the natives kicking off it'll be well worth going to have a good laugh.
I was there when they kicked off against Sam Allardyce in 2007 it was something else.
Panelbase have now published the detailed tables from yesterday’s Sunday Times poll of Scottish voters (sample: 1,024). Great poll for the SLDs who have the only statistically significant change in VI.
Westminster VI - Scotland SNP 38% (nc) Con 18% (nc) Lab 17% (-2) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Brexit Party 9% (nc) Greens 2% UKIP <1% Change UK <1%
If Boris had any serious tactical nous he would very publically go around to the neighbours and thank them for their concern when there was a lot of noise last Friday.
Whole thing would be dead by tomorrow evening.
He could have said something like that when he was first asked, "domestic violence is a serious issue, hard to know what is happening when you hear an argument, right to call police if you are worried so that they can check everyone is okay, as was the case on Friday. Always upsetting to have an argument, water under the bridge..."
But how will zealous groupies like HY react when they realise 31 October has been one great con - as so many people have told them all along? Tory ratings will plummet.
Well, good question. He will have to ride it out. It's either that or go for that election. Perhaps he will, there is a logic to it, but I doubt it.
For me, a 'No Deal Brexit in 2019' is a great value lay. It's my main betting play atm.
Way I see it, for a No Deal to happen needs 2 things -
(i) A PM who genuinely believes in it. (ii) That PM to command a clear majority in the commons.
At present we have neither of these things.
When Johnson takes over we still have neither of these things.
A No Deal vs Remain election won't really settle things - people will be voting on matters other than Brexit. Then there's FPTP. No, it will have to be Ref2.
A No Deal vs Remain election won't really settle things - people will be voting on matters other than Brexit. Then there's FPTP. No, it will have to be Ref2.
A No Deal vs Remain election won't really settle things - people will be voting on matters other than Brexit. Then there's FPTP. No, it will have to be Ref2.
And how many divisions (MPs) does he have? Oh, that’s right: none.
Unless he’s hinting at an electoral pact ? Not exactly compatible with holding a snap election, but Farage has always been a mischief maker.
Farage has about 20% of the electorate who wish to vote for the Brexit party at the next election. What he does or doesn't do is as important as any of the other (Or presumptive other) actors leading the parties with substantial support and/or seat potential in the next GE - Corbyn, Johnson, Swinson, Sturgeon & Foster.
TM was not endorsed by parliament , she won by default as leadsom pulled out, and did not get public mandate until 2017 election, Gordon Brown did not have parliament endorsing him. Boris has the support of over 50% of the parliamentary party (more than Cameron had in 2005) and will win a majority in early election IMO to get public mandate.
This is not true. Queens speeches and budgets are endorsed by parliament and they are regarded as confidence votes in HM government led by the prime minister. Both Brown and May got queens speeches and bughets passed under their premierships
And how many divisions (MPs) does he have? Oh, that’s right: none.
Unless he’s hinting at an electoral pact ? Not exactly compatible with holding a snap election, but Farage has always been a mischief maker.
A snap election with an electoral pact with the Brexit Party is a viable route to getting out of the EU with no deal on the 31st of October. But it leaves the Tory Party in an even worse position than it is in now. They are now a minority government in hoc to a potentially deadly rival. And after a general election campaign they might even find they have lost most of their most active members to the Brexit Party, giving Farage the one thing he doesn't yet have to dominate british politics.
A No Deal vs Remain election won't really settle things - people will be voting on matters other than Brexit. Then there's FPTP. No, it will have to be Ref2.
I think it's both.
Lab/LD/SNP win the election promising Ref2.
Then Ref2 happens.
Then we remain.
Wishful thinking?
Will Labour be able to come up with a policy on Brexit in time for an election? If it is in favour of a second referendum and to stay in the EU what happen to the MPs who want to leave?
A No Deal vs Remain election won't really settle things - people will be voting on matters other than Brexit. Then there's FPTP. No, it will have to be Ref2.
Hold on we've been assured that parliament is of the utmost importance by the great and the good. I'd accept a Corbyn minority Gov't with the Lib Dem support cancelling or re-reffing Art 50 and also take a Tory-DUP-Brexit majority as a mandate for "No deal". Of course we can avoid this throwing of the dice by simply agreeing to the deal but that's deeply unfashionable now.
That would mean having the election campaign through August - MPs AND journalists (more so journos) would be absolutely furious if they have to miss out on 3-4 weeks of their holidays in August.
And that's why a VONC on 24th/25th July is also fanciful IMO.
I think a lot of people are underestimating how shallow everyone in the Westminster bubble is. They won't sacrifice their holidays for a VONC on day one.
However, 5th September is crunch day. Boris will either have to call a general or face a VONC then.
5th September works on a lot of ways. It allows him to conduct negotiations in Europe (however futilely) and then call an election based on that.
Hmm not really. I favour the WA over Ref2. I do want a Labour govt though.
For balance, I can perfectly well envisage such a snap election (which I do not think will be called in any case, although I hope it is) returning a win for the other side - Tory/BP.
Fair enough, because it will be a quasi Ref2.
Which will only lead to an actual Ref2 if Lab/SNP/LD beat Tory/BP.
That would mean having the election campaign through August - MPs AND journalists (more so journos) would be absolutely furious if they have to miss out on 3-4 weeks of their holidays in August.
And that's why a VONC on 24th/25th July is also fanciful IMO.
I think a lot of people are underestimating how shallow everyone in the Westminster bubble is. They won't sacrifice their holidays for a VONC on day one.
However, 5th September is crunch day. Boris will either have to call a general or face a VONC then.
Would you sacrifice your family's holiday in favour of your job?
The last paragraph on the second page is very interesting. I think the reported UK view on this is correct: the EU is miscalculating.
Except they can afford to, and we can't.
Correct, and of course those in the UK who think the EU will blink if we have Boris rather than Theresa nominally in charge are miscalculating even more badly.
That would mean having the election campaign through August - MPs AND journalists (more so journos) would be absolutely furious if they have to miss out on 3-4 weeks of their holidays in August.
And that's why a VONC on 24th/25th July is also fanciful IMO.
I think a lot of people are underestimating how shallow everyone in the Westminster bubble is. They won't sacrifice their holidays for a VONC on day one.
However, 5th September is crunch day. Boris will either have to call a general or face a VONC then.
Correct. Years and years ago I was acting for a client who was considering an AIM listing. They were told in no uncertain terms that if they wanted to list it had to be in July, because once it's August 'nothing happens'.
A bit misleading though. 'Prefer not' (the question) and 'Don't want' (the headline) are subtly different. I prefer my country not to be led by a member of the Labour party. I actually prefer my country to be led by a Christian in preference to an atheist, and I would prefer a moderate practising Muslim to a cold eyed rationalist. I would prefer Richard Dawkins however to a religious zealot of any sort. 'Don't want' implies rejection. Preferences are a universal currency among the human race and are not a problem. Polls ask simplistic questions and get simplified answers.
Hmm not really. I favour the WA over Ref2. I do want a Labour govt though.
For balance, I can perfectly well envisage such a snap election (which I do not think will be called in any case, although I hope it is) returning a win for the other side - Tory/BP.
Fair enough, because it will be a quasi Ref2.
Which will only lead to an actual Ref2 if Lab/SNP/LD beat Tory/BP.
Yes, any Ref2 needs a new parliament; like the deal there aren't the votes for it in this one.
That would mean having the election campaign through August - MPs AND journalists (more so journos) would be absolutely furious if they have to miss out on 3-4 weeks of their holidays in August.
And that's why a VONC on 24th/25th July is also fanciful IMO.
I think a lot of people are underestimating how shallow everyone in the Westminster bubble is. They won't sacrifice their holidays for a VONC on day one.
However, 5th September is crunch day. Boris will either have to call a general or face a VONC then.
Correct. Years and years ago I was acting for a client who was considering an AIM listing. They were told in no uncertain terms that if they wanted to list it had to be in July, because once it's August 'nothing happens'.
And it explains why the leadership election was padded out to take it to the end of July.
Actually a late Autumn election might be best for everyone. There aren't the votes for anything in this parliament so sans proroguing, nothing will get through. Greening, Lee and Grieve sacrificing their Tory careers could well be the best route out to break the deadlock. People might not like the future parliament either but it'll probably give us the votes for either a revocation/another referendum or just to leave come what may.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
The renegotiation is to remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked for not Barnier.
Boris will also ask to remove the backstop or make it temporary, the EU will refuse so he will let NI decide in a referendum which the EU won't refuse
You are aware that the backstop is there to protect Ireland, as well as Northern Ireland. The EU won't abandon the Republic just because the Northern Irish agree to it.
Tories see no Ireland, hear no Ireland and speak no Ireland.
Well that is complete crap, and defies history. It is true that it is not a good thing that many Tories see Ireland in a different way to the Irish. Scots need to be very careful pontificating over Ireland though, as there have been many Scots who have, as part of The Empire repressed the Irish. Without Protestant Scottish settlers in the North there would be no Northern Ireland, no Orange Order and no troubles.
That would mean having the election campaign through August - MPs AND journalists (more so journos) would be absolutely furious if they have to miss out on 3-4 weeks of their holidays in August.
And that's why a VONC on 24th/25th July is also fanciful IMO.
I think a lot of people are underestimating how shallow everyone in the Westminster bubble is. They won't sacrifice their holidays for a VONC on day one.
However, 5th September is crunch day. Boris will either have to call a general or face a VONC then.
A successful VNOC on 24th/25th July would start the clock on the 14 day period to arrive at a majority for an alternative. That would take us to circa 7th August before Dissolution could happen. Polling Day would likely be 19th September - just about feasible.
That would mean having the election campaign through August - MPs AND journalists (more so journos) would be absolutely furious if they have to miss out on 3-4 weeks of their holidays in August.
And that's why a VONC on 24th/25th July is also fanciful IMO.
I think a lot of people are underestimating how shallow everyone in the Westminster bubble is. They won't sacrifice their holidays for a VONC on day one.
However, 5th September is crunch day. Boris will either have to call a general or face a VONC then.
Correct. Years and years ago I was acting for a client who was considering an AIM listing. They were told in no uncertain terms that if they wanted to list it had to be in July, because once it's August 'nothing happens'.
And it explains why the leadership election was padded out to take it to the end of July.
Padded out? You could argue that it's been rushed, and holding a rushed leadership election in the wake of the European elections made the election of a no-dealer that much more likely.
Incidentally, people like Charles became rather hot under the collar when Gordon Brown was being described as unsuited character-wise. Like Boris he had a violent temper, was a pathological liar and was totally unsuited to the office of Prime Minister.
Which Mike Smithson said all along. And which he's saying about Boris Johnson.
If I had a vote I would vote for Hunt.
As I’ve been clear about on here for a very long time. I don’t like Boris and I don’t rate him.
But I will criticise invasion of privacy or casual use of mental health as a political weapon regardless of my views on the underlying individual.
Panelbase have now published the detailed tables from yesterday’s Sunday Times poll of Scottish voters (sample: 1,024). Great poll for the SLDs who have the only statistically significant change in VI.
Westminster VI - Scotland SNP 38% (nc) Con 18% (nc) Lab 17% (-2) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Brexit Party 9% (nc) Greens 2% UKIP <1% Change UK <1%
And how many divisions (MPs) does he have? Oh, that’s right: none.
Unless he’s hinting at an electoral pact ? Not exactly compatible with holding a snap election, but Farage has always been a mischief maker.
I think that is explicitly what is being talked about. A "coupon election" where the Brexit Party stands aside for any MPs prepared to vote for No Deal. Which is probably the vast majority of Tories if it comes to it and Caroline Flint and a small number of other Labour MPs.
Just to note - the last time we had an October election was 1974.
Wilson announced via a live tv and radio address on September 18th he was going to the country and the vote took place on October 10th.
Curiously, October 10th is a Thursday this year as well but the Conservatives lost the 1974 contest.
One option might be to call the election for Thursday October 17th so that would mean a truncated Party Conference season and the new Government would have two weeks (and presumably a mandate) to tell the EU what would happen next.
And how many divisions (MPs) does he have? Oh, that’s right: none.
Unless he’s hinting at an electoral pact ? Not exactly compatible with holding a snap election, but Farage has always been a mischief maker.
Farage has about 20% of the electorate who wish to vote for the Brexit party at the next election. What he does or doesn't do is as important as any of the other (Or presumptive other) actors leading the parties with substantial support and/or seat potential in the next GE - Corbyn, Johnson, Swinson, Sturgeon & Foster.
He has zero seats and unlikely in reality to win many at an election, he is just a gobshite that wants to be important and keep lining his own pockets.
Comments
And that's why a VONC on 24th/25th July is also fanciful IMO.
I think a lot of people are underestimating how shallow everyone in the Westminster bubble is. They won't sacrifice their holidays for a VONC on day one.
However, 5th September is crunch day. Boris will either have to call a general or face a VONC then.
That doesn't take away from the fact that sending the details to the Guardian was cynical.
Humans, eh. Gotta take the rough with the smooth
And it’s not as though he’s displayed any willingness to do so himself.
How is he going to manage PM Questions, I wonder?
Good afternoon, everybody.
He will gamble (IMO successfully) that neither the DUP nor the ERG hardliners will, at the crunch, bring him down and force an election.
The big question for me is then - will he be able to get the May Deal, now re-branded as the Boris Deal, through parliament at some point in 2020?
I do give him a fighting chance.
Is a case of "why can't they both lose"? Hopefully Banks wins and gets 1 penny of compensation lol
I remember when he was once a here today, gone tomorrow politician....
I feel your pain, I remember how gutted I was when shite owners forced Rafa out at Liverpool.
Westminster VI - Scotland
SNP 38% (nc)
Con 18% (nc)
Lab 17% (-2)
Lib Dem 13% (+3)
Brexit Party 9% (nc)
Greens 2%
UKIP <1%
Change UK <1%
https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/ST-Tables-for-publication-200619.pdf
ElectoralCalculus gives following seat distribution:
SNP 50 seats (+15)
Lib Dems 5 seats (+1)
Con 3 seats (-10)
Lab 1 seat (-6)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?SCOTCON=18&SCOTLAB=17&SCOTLIB=13&SCOTNAT=38&SCOTBrexit=9&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTUKIP=&type=scotland&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
For me, a 'No Deal Brexit in 2019' is a great value lay. It's my main betting play atm.
Way I see it, for a No Deal to happen needs 2 things -
(i) A PM who genuinely believes in it.
(ii) That PM to command a clear majority in the commons.
At present we have neither of these things.
When Johnson takes over we still have neither of these things.
Not exactly compatible with holding a snap election, but Farage has always been a mischief maker.
Lab/LD/SNP win the election promising Ref2.
Then Ref2 happens.
Then we remain.
Scary stuff.
Of course we can avoid this throwing of the dice by simply agreeing to the deal but that's deeply unfashionable now.
For balance, I can perfectly well envisage such a snap election (which I do not think will be called in any case, although I hope it is) returning a win for the other side - Tory/BP.
Fair enough, because it will be a quasi Ref2.
Which will only lead to an actual Ref2 if Lab/SNP/LD beat Tory/BP.
How do you see him most likely exiting?
Greening, Lee and Grieve sacrificing their Tory careers could well be the best route out to break the deadlock.
People might not like the future parliament either but it'll probably give us the votes for either a revocation/another referendum or just to leave come what may.
As I’ve been clear about on here for a very long time. I don’t like Boris and I don’t rate him.
But I will criticise invasion of privacy or casual use of mental health as a political weapon regardless of my views on the underlying individual.
NEW THREAD
Just to note - the last time we had an October election was 1974.
Wilson announced via a live tv and radio address on September 18th he was going to the country and the vote took place on October 10th.
Curiously, October 10th is a Thursday this year as well but the Conservatives lost the 1974 contest.
One option might be to call the election for Thursday October 17th so that would mean a truncated Party Conference season and the new Government would have two weeks (and presumably a mandate) to tell the EU what would happen next.