First Monday of the head to head and Johnson’s Brexit plan has been exposed as a total sham and Jeremy Hunt is promising to close down successful, profitable businesses. How long until we know the result?
Nearly a month of blue-on-blue action. As was said yesterday, the theory that any publicity in ggood publicity is being tested to destruction.
@HYUFD doesn’t power sharing in Northern Ireland mean that majority rule is irrelevant?
In reality no, the Good Friday Agreement only passed with majority support in NI in the 1998 referendum, it could be rejected in favour of a hard border with the Republic of Ireland in another NI referendum
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably opposed to anything that treats NI differently to the mainland. If you think that a referendum will make MPs fall in line behind the winning position, then I suggest you recap the last few years of British politics.
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP support
Your steadfast commitment to this fiction is something to be admired.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?
Priti Patel on R4 showing that either she is a moron or she believes her audience are morons.
Sensible Boris tactic that said - dissemble and bluster until it's all over. Definite shades of TMay's 2017 campaign. We shall see if it's successful this time round.
That first question needn't trouble us unduly. Especially as the options aren't mutually exclusive.
The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossible
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?
In the absence of completely reliable data on the profile of the membership and access to everyone's records, the polling companies are presumably relying on people responding "Yes, I'm a member", and hoping that they'll be representative. Who knows?
That said, my recollection is that they were pretty accurate for the Labour leadership election.
The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson. Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
As I wrote yesterday your problem is that you have taken one version of events from Boris as gospel but the reality is that you have no idea whether or not he is playing you for a fool.
He says all things to all people and you are a good and understandable example of someone who is choosing to believe one narrow set of pronouncements from him over any other.
The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossible
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iirc
The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson. Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
The renegotiation is to remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked for not Barnier.
Boris will also ask to remove the backstop or make it temporary, the EU will refuse so he will let NI decide in a referendum which the EU won't refuse
You are aware that the backstop is there to protect Ireland, as well as Northern Ireland. The EU won't abandon the Republic just because the Northern Irish agree to it.
Tories see no Ireland, hear no Ireland and speak no Ireland.
Well that is complete crap, and defies history. It is true that it is not a good thing that many Tories see Ireland in a different way to the Irish. Scots need to be very careful pontificating over Ireland though, as there have been many Scots who have, as part of The Empire repressed the Irish. Without Protestant Scottish settlers in the North there would be no Northern Ireland, no Orange Order and no troubles.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
As I wrote yesterday your problem is that you have taken one version of events from Boris as gospel but the reality is that you have no idea whether or not he is playing you for a fool.
He says all things to all people and you are a good and understandable example of someone who is choosing to believe one narrow set of pronouncements from him over any other.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yes
The constant supply of food and other resources from the United States had nothing to do with it of course.
Why are leavers obsessed by wars that they never fought in? It is militaristic and creepy. The irony is that WW2 was fought against people who were militaristic nationalists. The EU was part of a post war rejection of that poisonous philosophy.
The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossible
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iirc
I'd have thought, if you can be sure that you are interviewing a member with a vote, then polling for a party's leadership contest should be more reliable given that turnout is likely to be very high. I'm not sure how easy that "if" is, though.
What's the equivalent to the invasion of Poland to justify the hardship that we will endure and overcome?
They humiliatingly agreed to our demands to leave instead of offering us inducements to stay, as many Brexiteers thought they would before the referendum if we voted Leave. A clear casus belli.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
The renegotiation is to remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked for not Barnier.
Boris will also ask to remove the backstop or make it temporary, the EU will refuse so he will let NI decide in a referendum which the EU won't refuse
You are aware that the backstop is there to protect Ireland, as well as Northern Ireland. The EU won't abandon the Republic just because the Northern Irish agree to it.
Tories see no Ireland, hear no Ireland and speak no Ireland.
currently they're the only mainstream UK party that contests seats
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
As I wrote yesterday your problem is that you have taken one version of events from Boris as gospel but the reality is that you have no idea whether or not he is playing you for a fool.
He says all things to all people and you are a good and understandable example of someone who is choosing to believe one narrow set of pronouncements from him over any other.
The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson. Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendum
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably opposed to anything that treats NI differently to the mainland. If you think that a referendum will make MPs fall in line behind the winning position, then I suggest you recap the last few years of British politics.
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP support
la la land again. We should call it Boris Island, where inconvenient truths and realities are harrumphed away with broad brush wild guesses about what the future holds.
The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossible
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iirc
A poll of 800 Tory members is polling 0.5% of the electorate. That must be a bonus, and I’d have thought people that answer would be more representative of the electorate than those who answer Westminster VI polls, as I think the latter tend to over represent the politically engaged.
The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson. Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendum
Why would a change to the political declaration - which is hardly a binding element of the proposed deal - make any difference to the parliamentary arithmetic ?
What's the equivalent to the invasion of Poland to justify the hardship that we will endure and overcome?
The Lisbon Treaty. Which should have had a referendum but Tony Blair and Gordon Brown reneged on that manifesto commitment due to knowing they would lose it. That started the insurmountable pressure that led to the referendum that was won by Leave
The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson. Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendum
But Priti Patel has just told us the that the WA is completely dead and we would be starting from scratch in the negotiations.
The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossible
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iirc
A poll of 800 Tory members is polling 0.5% of the electorate. That must be a bonus, and I’d have thought people that answer would be more representative of the electorate than those who answer Westminster VI polls, as I think the latter tend to over represent the politically engaged.
Statistically the former makes no difference, as the proportion of the population being sampled does not (until you get to much higher levels) have an effect on the accuracy of the sample.
The latter - removing one source of bias from a standard poll as party members are by definition likely to be politically engaged - is a fair point.
On the other hand, it will be more difficult to adjust for any biases in age/sex/class/geography etc. because there isn't data on the distribution of the base population of members.
The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson. Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
Exactly, which he won't actually do. Boris will fuck up Brexit and his relationship with supporters like you faster than he gets through girls that he fancies. Vote Boris for No Brexit! It would be funny were it not to be so tragic.
Still waiting for your answer on why he has the skills to be a good PM, rather than just winning a celebrity talent show called Britain Hasn't Got Much (Political) Talent
The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Or the Tory members must be willing to change their minds en masse very quickly. Also not impossible but unlikely. Once a choice is made people dont like to change it - that others try to convince them to change will make them dig in their heels.
The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson. Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendum
Why would a change to the political declaration - which is hardly a binding element of the proposed deal - make any difference to the parliamentary arithmetic ?
As that was what most of the ERG who voted against the WA at MV3 (Boris voted for the WA at MV3 of course) are concerned about ie the temporary Customs Union for GB.
It is the DUP concerned about the backstop, with a Tory majority the DUP and the handful of ERG diehards remaining could be ignored and the WA narrowly pass (add in a handful of Labour rebels like Flint and Stringer too who will vote for the WA again)
HYUFD, what causes someone to give their heart and soul to someone as undeserving as Boris Johnson? A similar disease has infected the Corbynites. Total blind, unquestioning devotion.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yes
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
I totally agree. I was diagnosed with a mental health issue in March (in my case depression). I needed 10 weeks off work before my medication got me to the point where I am able to function reasonably normally on most days. Luckily I have very supportive and understanding friends and family (and employers) but I'm well aware that there are still plenty of people in the world who don't understand - which in turn can put people who need help off from seeking that help.
The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson. Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendum
You predict that this occurs by the end of October. The WA needs to be agreed by parliament. So either Mr Johnson has to persuade more people to vote for the WA or win an election with enough time to spare to pass the WA.
The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossible
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iirc
A poll of 800 Tory members is polling 0.5% of the electorate. That must be a bonus, and I’d have thought people that answer would be more representative of the electorate than those who answer Westminster VI polls, as I think the latter tend to over represent the politically engaged.
Statistically the former makes no difference, as the proportion of the population being sampled does not (until you get to much higher levels) have an effect on the accuracy of the sample.
The latter - removing one source of bias from a standard poll as party members are by definition likely to be politically engaged - is a fair point.
On the other hand, it will be more difficult to adjust for any biases in age/sex/class/geography etc. because there isn't data on the distribution of the base population of members.
Apart from class, aren’t the numbers available for the categories in your last paragraph?
The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson. Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendum
I am not sure it was worth Boris hiring Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf as his PB PR man. Keep up the good work though, it certainly is entertaining.
Boris is gradually frittering away his support and you know it. He is an empty suit. Full of platitudes, lies and no substance. the truth will out.
The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson. Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendum
But Priti Patel has just told us the that the WA is completely dead and we would be starting from scratch in the negotiations.
Priti voted against the WA even at MV3 unlike Boris, with a clear Tory majority Boris can ignore her
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably opposed to anything that treats NI differently to the mainland. If you think that a referendum will make MPs fall in line behind the winning position, then I suggest you recap the last few years of British politics.
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP support
la la land again. We should call it Boris Island, where inconvenient truths and realities are harrumphed away with broad brush wild guesses about what the future holds.
Absolutely la la land. Hyufd is a blinkered Boris disciple and is living in an alternative universe
I said it some days ago that Boris shows all the signs of realising he is just a few weeks from being PM and is now at the point that he knows he cannot achieve his promised unicorns ( he is after all very intelligent) and is hiding away and frankly looking as if he is in a blind panic.
Our ballot papers arrive on the 6th July and will be returned very quickly so at best there is only 14 days or so for him to face the cameras and come out fighting, otherwise he may well find he is in a very close race
Indeed I do not think it is impossible that we may see him withdraw from the race
Of course in my wife's case she cannot stand him, much like most ladies, and both her and my votes are going to Hunt
HYUFD, what causes someone to give their heart and soul to someone as undeserving as Boris Johnson? A similar disease has infected the Corbynites. Total blind, unquestioning devotion.
Indeed.
Tribalism. Blind, unthinking, fanatical devotion to someone even when everyone else can start to see the truth.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yes
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?
The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson. Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendum
You predict that this occurs by the end of October. The WA needs to be agreed by parliament. So either Mr Johnson has to persuade more people to vote for the WA or win an election with enough time to spare to pass the WA.
The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossible
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iirc
A poll of 800 Tory members is polling 0.5% of the electorate. That must be a bonus, and I’d have thought people that answer would be more representative of the electorate than those who answer Westminster VI polls, as I think the latter tend to over represent the politically engaged.
Statistically the former makes no difference, as the proportion of the population being sampled does not (until you get to much higher levels) have an effect on the accuracy of the sample.
The latter - removing one source of bias from a standard poll as party members are by definition likely to be politically engaged - is a fair point.
On the other hand, it will be more difficult to adjust for any biases in age/sex/class/geography etc. because there isn't data on the distribution of the base population of members.
Apart from class, aren’t the numbers available for the categories in your last paragraph?
I don't think the Tory party publishes this information. There have been some polls used to inform various semi-academic studies, but there must be risks in using one poll's findings to weight another?
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
Oh, believe me, don't I know.
It's not throwing it around. He needs professional help. The last thing he needs right now are the keys to No 10.
Leading this country at any time and especially through Brexit is a very serious topic and shouldn't be thrown around.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably opposed to anything that treats NI differently to the mainland. If you think that a referendum will make MPs fall in line behind the winning position, then I suggest you recap the last few years of British politics.
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP support
la la land again. We should call it Boris Island, where inconvenient truths and realities are harrumphed away with broad brush wild guesses about what the future holds.
Absolutely la la land. Hyufd is a blinkered Boris disciple and is living in an alternative universe
I said it some days ago that Boris shows all the signs of realising he is just a few weeks from being PM and is now at the point that he knows he cannot achieve his promised unicorns ( he is after all very intelligent) and is hiding away and frankly looking as if he is in a blind panic.
Our ballot papers arrive on the 6th July and will be returned very quickly so at best there is only 14 days or so for him to face the cameras and come out fighting, otherwise he may well find he is in a very close race
Indeed I do not think it is impossible that we may see him withdraw from the race
Of course in my wife's case she cannot stand him, much like most ladies, and both her and my votes are going to Hunt
I know it is anecdotal, but I doubt my wife will vote for him either. I certainly won't, and it isn't because of Brexit. It is simply he doesn't have the skills, attention to detail or consistency to hold the post. It is way way beyond his limited abilities. He is a raconteur, a polemicist, a journalist after a fashion and a game show host. This country has been humiliated enough. Having a clown as PM would be the last straw.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yes
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?
Boris is technically not lying by sticking to a Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st position to win the election.
Once that is done he can then shift but only once he has the majority can his true intentions be made clear
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably opposed to anything that treats NI differently to the mainland. If you think that a referendum will make MPs fall in line behind the winning position, then I suggest you recap the last few years of British politics.
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP support
la la land again. We should call it Boris Island, where inconvenient truths and realities are harrumphed away with broad brush wild guesses about what the future holds.
Absolutely la la land. Hyufd is a blinkered Boris disciple and is living in an alternative universe
snip
Our ballot papers arrive on the 6th July and will be returned very quickly so at best there is only 14 days or so for him to face the cameras and come out fighting, otherwise he may well find he is in a very close race
Indeed I do not think it is impossible that we may see him withdraw from the race
Of course in my wife's case she cannot stand him, much like most ladies, and both her and my votes are going to Hunt
I know it is anecdotal, but I doubt my wife will vote for him either. I certainly won't, and it isn't because of Brexit. It is simply he doesn't have the skills, attention to detail or consistency to hold the post. It is way way beyond his limited abilities. He is a raconteur, a polemicist, a journalist after a fashion and a game show host. This country has been humiliated enough. Having a clown as PM would be the last straw.
For the first time this morning I am beginning to think the incredible will happen: he pulls out.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
The renegotiation is to remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked for not Barnier. Boris will also ask to remove the backstop or make it temporary, the EU will refuse so he will let NI decide in a referendum which the EU won't refuse
You seem to be very sure about what these people will do, Mr HY. Have they all shared with you their innermost thoughts? Or is it just wishful thinking on your part?
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably tish politics.
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP support
la la land again. We should call it Boris Island, where inconvenient truths and realities are harrumphed away with broad brush wild guesses about what the future holds.
Absolutely la la land. Hyufd is a blinkered Boris disciple and is living in an alternative universe
I said it some days ago that Boris shows all the signs of realising he is just a few weeks from being PM and is now at the point that he knows he cannot achieve his promised unicorns ( he is after all very intelligent) and is hiding away and frankly looking as if he is in a blind panic.
Our ballot papers arrive on the 6th July and will be returned very quickly so at best there is only 14 days or so for him to face the cameras and come out fighting, otherwise he may well find he is in a very close race
Indeed I do not think it is impossible that we may see him withdraw from the race
Of course in my wife's case she cannot stand him, much like most ladies, and both her and my votes are going to Hunt
I know it is anecdotal, but I doubt my wife will vote for him either. I certainly won't, and it isn't because of Brexit. It is simply he doesn't have the skills, attention to detail or consistency to hold the post. It is way way beyond his limited abilities. He is a raconteur, a polemicist, a journalist after a fashion and a game show host. This country has been humiliated enough. Having a clown as PM would be the last straw.
Both you and BigG were Remainers, most Tory members were and are Leavers
The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossible
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iirc
A poll of 800 Tory members is polling 0.5% of the electorate. That must be a bonus, and I’d have thought people that answer would be more representative of the electorate than those who answer Westminster VI polls, as I think the latter tend to over represent the politically engaged.
Statistically the former makes no difference, as the proportion of the population being sampled does not (until you get to much higher levels) have an effect on the accuracy of the sample.
The latter - removing one source of bias from a standard poll as party members are by definition likely to be politically engaged - is a fair point.
On the other hand, it will be more difficult to adjust for any biases in age/sex/class/geography etc. because there isn't data on the distribution of the base population of members.
Apart from class, aren’t the numbers available for the categories in your last paragraph?
I don't think the Tory party publishes this information. There have been some polls used to inform various semi-academic studies, but there must be risks in using one poll's findings to weight another?
I’m sure I’ve recently seen headlines or tweets saying ‘The PM is going to be chosen by a group of 73 year old men when the average age of a voter is 46” or some such, and the memberships of each branch can’t be that hard to find I’d have thought
My take is that polling of smaller, private clubs should be more accurate than that of a country, mainly because of the politically engaged factor
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yes
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?
Boris is technically not lying by sticking to a Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st position to win the election.
Once that is done he can then shift but only once he has the majority can his true intentions be made clear
Thats a new one. How can anyone be 'technically not lying'
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yes
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?
HY's position appears to be that Boris will stick absolutely to his Brexit Plan - which he himself hasn't spelled out but someone else did so on Twitter so it must be true. Whilst at the same time deceiving us and his colleagues when he insists he isn't shooting for an early election - despite the latter promise being the more credible since he won't be throwing away finally achieving his ambition.
There may well be an early election - but it will arise if Boris is rejected as PM, not because he gets the job and calls one. Once he gets his bum on the seat he'll turn into Mrs May and cling to it like a limpet, hoping his bluster and ducking and weaving will see him through.
I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail article
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yes
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?
Boris is technically not lying by sticking to a Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st position to win the election.
Once that is done he can then shift but only once he has the majority can his true intentions be made clear
Oh my Goodness, have you really read what you just wrote. You are saying it is OK for him to lie about this to win the election with the gullible faithful. I always said Brexit was like a very irrational religion. Boris is clearly one of it's deities. God spare us from false prophets!
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yes
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?
Boris is technically not lying by sticking to a Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st position to win the election.
Once that is done he can then shift but only once he has the majority can his true intentions be made clear
Technically not lying? Is that any different to lying?
Convicted wife beater* Geoffrey Boycott isn't even particularly insightful when he's talking about cricket. I am not minded to pay much attention to his views on the economic impact of a no deal Brexit. So bored of these old men wanking on about the war - which none of them even fought in (perhaps that's the problem).
* not technically his wife, but he was convicted by a French court of punching her in the face.
The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson. Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendum
But Priti Patel has just told us the that the WA is completely dead and we would be starting from scratch in the negotiations.
Priti voted against the WA even at MV3 unlike Boris, with a clear Tory majority Boris can ignore her
So he has promised things to some groups of supporters intending to ignore them later? What a smashing chap he is.
You're like William Glenn and the EU - you back something, but make it seem a lot worse than it actually is in the ways you support it.
Perhaps Boris will win a GE, but even stopped clocks etc etc, and you are as worshipful as a Corbynite kneeling at the alter.
Seriously it is religious - the massive over interpretation of brief snippets of text or remarks into detailed screed, the belief in the infallibility of the deity, the rapid change in position to support the new orthodoxy as it changes, the explaining what he means even if he hasn't said it. Its uncanny
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably tish politics.
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP support
la la land again. We should call it Boris Island, where inconvenient truths and realities are harrumphed away with broad brush wild guesses about what the future holds.
Absolutely la la land. Hyufd is a blinkered Boris disciple and is living in an alternative universe
I said it some days ago that Boris shows all the signs of realising he is just a few weeks from being PM and is now at the point that he knows he cannot achieve his promised unicorns ( he is after all very intelligent) and is hiding away and frankly looking as if he is in a blind panic.
Our ballot papers arrive on the 6th July and will be returned very quickly so at best there is only 14 days or so for him to face the cameras and come out fighting, otherwise he may well find he is in a very close race
Indeed I do not think it is impossible that we may see him withdraw from the race
Of course in my wife's case she cannot stand him, much like most ladies, and both her and my votes are going to Hunt
I know it is anecdotal, but I doubt my wife will vote for him either. I certainly won't, and it isn't because of Brexit. It is simply he doesn't have the skills, attention to detail or consistency to hold the post. It is way way beyond his limited abilities. He is a raconteur, a polemicist, a journalist after a fashion and a game show host. This country has been humiliated enough. Having a clown as PM would be the last straw.
Both you and BigG were Remainers, most Tory members were and are Leavers
You are not getting away with that about my motives.
I have always supported the result of the referendum as you well know. You are a zealot of nonsensical purity that can only end in tears
Finally out of central LA thank god. Back to San Diego for the first time in a while, it's still probably the only place I'd consider moving to in the US, well that and Venice/Santa Monica.
Convicted wife beater* Geoffrey Boycott isn't even particularly insightful when he's talking about cricket. I am not minded to pay much attention to his views on the economic impact of a no deal Brexit. So bored of these old men wanking on about the war - which none of them even fought in (perhaps that's the problem).
* not technically his wife, but he was convicted by a French court of punching her in the face.
Yep. Same old saloon bar crap from old men who grew up in the 1950s and had nothing directly to do with the War. The Greatest Generation are now in their 90s.
Apart from anything, who is 'They'? Presumably the EU. They don't want us to No Deal and indeed gave us an extension to try and help.
The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossible
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.
It is harder, but doable provided you set the survey up to get a representative subsample. Most political polls do not do this, they only stratify at the highest level.
When a polling firm says they have polled members of party X, they probably go out of their way to ask questions about membership before it becomes clear that it is a poll about the members-election.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
You are pretending the derision is purely about what is predicted and not the manner of it and the fanatic tribalism.
I predicted leave would win years before the referendum, and I was right, it doesnt mean every comment and prediction I made since is impossible to predict. Not even a correct prediction depending on the manner of it.
It's a binary outcome, he wins or he doesnt. I think he will win too, and I too think he will go for a GE. Does that mean anything I say must be true if he does go for a GE? Of course not.
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.
But other than that he's a good bet.
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last week
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yes
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?
Boris is technically not lying by sticking to a Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st position to win the election.
Once that is done he can then shift but only once he has the majority can his true intentions be made clear
Can you please explain "technically not lying". I'm genuinely puzzled. You must think that he is not lying in some technical way. Can you elucidate?
Convicted wife beater* Geoffrey Boycott isn't even particularly insightful when he's talking about cricket. I am not minded to pay much attention to his views on the economic impact of a no deal Brexit. So bored of these old men wanking on about the war - which none of them even fought in (perhaps that's the problem).
* not technically his wife, but he was convicted by a French court of punching her in the face.
Yep. Same old saloon bar crap from old men who grew up in the 1950s and had nothing directly to do with the War. The Greatest Generation are now in their 90s.
Apart from anything, who is 'They'? Presumably the EU. They don't want us to No Deal and indeed gave us an extension to try and help.
Mr HYUFD, dismissing myself and others as we were (sharp intake of breath) remainers is very silly. We still have a vote, and dare I say some influence.
Boris will probably still win but it will be a pyrrhic victory, particularly if it ends up being marginal. He will make TMay look like the model decisive PM, as he goes down in history a the most unsuitable man to ever hold the post. Take your blinkers off man, it is pathetic to see such blind unquestioning sycophancy.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
It is not HYUFD being criticised, but his opinions, and his opinions are criticised because they are unlikely scenarios presented as near certainties. I do not think it is out of place in a political forum to counter such claims, especially on a political forum where betting prices and probabilities are much better understood.
Priti Patel on R4 showing that either she is a moron or she believes her audience are morons.
Sensible Boris tactic that said - dissemble and bluster until it's all over. Definite shades of TMay's 2017 campaign. We shall see if it's successful this time round.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
You are pretending the derision is purely about what is predicted and not the manner of it and the fanatic tribalism.
I predicted leave would win years before the referendum, and I was right, it doesnt mean every comment and prediction I made since is impossible to predict. Not even a correct prediction depending on the manner of it.
It's a binary outcome, he wins or he doesnt. I think he will win too, and I too think he will go for a GE. Does that mean anything I say must be true if he does go for a GE? Of course not.
There aren’t many on here who couldn’t be similarly derided.
I'm not sure The Incident* will change many minds in this electorate.
But Hunt is building a strong wider case on accountability and openness v shifty avoidance, which I think will start to chime among some of those voting. And this won't help.
I'm also fascinated as to how far putting out uncomfortable facts about No Deal (ie calling out all that GATT 24/implementation period guff) will be portrayed as Project Fear 2.0. It's one thing to wave your hand dismissively at Vince Cable or even Mark Carney saying it.. but if Bozza goes for the current foreign secretary and half his own party, it may not be a good look for the future.
(* I think it's probably earned capital letters by now )
EDIT TO ADD: I'm not sure any of that will wipe out Boris's lead.. but as Mike suggests, it could be rather closer than some expected, and possibly dent his expectation of unadulterated cheering all the way to Number 10.
Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
No one is doubting he could win (he's red for me but that's an emotional and dear god does no one have any common sense bet).
People are saying he is an utter, utter twat, lying scumbag and is wholly unfit to be our PM.
That is the central thrust of most peoples' comments on PB.
Convicted wife beater* Geoffrey Boycott isn't even particularly insightful when he's talking about cricket. I am not minded to pay much attention to his views on the economic impact of a no deal Brexit. So bored of these old men wanking on about the war - which none of them even fought in (perhaps that's the problem).
* not technically his wife, but he was convicted by a French court of punching her in the face.
I stopped taking Boycott seriosly when he started criticising batsmen for not scoring quickly enough. In otherwords as soon as he started cricket commentary.
Finally out of central LA thank god. Back to San Diego for the first time in a while, it's still probably the only place I'd consider moving to in the US, well that and Venice/Santa Monica.
LA is a horrible place
Good morning Malc
My wife and I suffered an 8 hour power outage on the 6th floor of our LA hotel completely trapped and used the in room fridge to keep our spirits up. At the same time Arnold Schwarzenegger was trying to hold a celebrity party on the ground floor
Johnson is 1.25-1,26 as next Tory Leader, and 1.27-1.28 as next PM.
These are much too close together. There is a gap between Johnson being chosen by the Tory Membership and Johnson being proposed to the Queen by Mrs May as commanding the confidence of the House. There may already be conversations about this between the Queen and Mrs May at the weekly audiences.
I can Mrs May stepping done as Tory leader in late July but staying on as PM during the recess. It will be an interesting conference season!
Comments
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
That said, my recollection is that they were pretty accurate for the Labour leadership election.
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
He says all things to all people and you are a good and understandable example of someone who is choosing to believe one narrow set of pronouncements from him over any other.
https://twitter.com/johnthelutheran/status/1143049006324621312
your usual degree of accuracy
https://twitter.com/bbcr4today/status/1143049520844066817?s=21
Must need the cash
The latter - removing one source of bias from a standard poll as party members are by definition likely to be politically engaged - is a fair point.
On the other hand, it will be more difficult to adjust for any biases in age/sex/class/geography etc. because there isn't data on the distribution of the base population of members.
Still waiting for your answer on why he has the skills to be a good PM, rather than just winning a celebrity talent show called Britain Hasn't Got Much (Political) Talent
It is the DUP concerned about the backstop, with a Tory majority the DUP and the handful of ERG diehards remaining could be ignored and the WA narrowly pass (add in a handful of Labour rebels like Flint and Stringer too who will vote for the WA again)
https://twitter.com/backboris2019/status/1142505827452051463?s=21
Boris is gradually frittering away his support and you know it. He is an empty suit. Full of platitudes, lies and no substance. the truth will out.
I said it some days ago that Boris shows all the signs of realising he is just a few weeks from being PM and is now at the point that he knows he cannot achieve his promised unicorns ( he is after all very intelligent) and is hiding away and frankly looking as if he is in a blind panic.
Our ballot papers arrive on the 6th July and will be returned very quickly so at best there is only 14 days or so for him to face the cameras and come out fighting, otherwise he may well find he is in a very close race
Indeed I do not think it is impossible that we may see him withdraw from the race
Of course in my wife's case she cannot stand him, much like most ladies, and both her and my votes are going to Hunt
Tribalism. Blind, unthinking, fanatical devotion to someone even when everyone else can start to see the truth.
It's not throwing it around. He needs professional help. The last thing he needs right now are the keys to No 10.
Leading this country at any time and especially through Brexit is a very serious topic and shouldn't be thrown around.
Once that is done he can then shift but only once he has the majority can his true intentions be made clear
I hope you're right but I won't be putting money on it.
My take is that polling of smaller, private clubs should be more accurate than that of a country, mainly because of the politically engaged factor
Either he is lying or not
There may well be an early election - but it will arise if Boris is rejected as PM, not because he gets the job and calls one. Once he gets his bum on the seat he'll turn into Mrs May and cling to it like a limpet, hoping his bluster and ducking and weaving will see him through.
So bored of these old men wanking on about the war - which none of them even fought in (perhaps that's the problem).
* not technically his wife, but he was convicted by a French court of punching her in the face.
You're like William Glenn and the EU - you back something, but make it seem a lot worse than it actually is in the ways you support it.
Perhaps Boris will win a GE, but even stopped clocks etc etc, and you are as worshipful as a Corbynite kneeling at the alter.
Seriously it is religious - the massive over interpretation of brief snippets of text or remarks into detailed screed, the belief in the infallibility of the deity, the rapid change in position to support the new orthodoxy as it changes, the explaining what he means even if he hasn't said it. Its uncanny
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
I have always supported the result of the referendum as you well know. You are a zealot of nonsensical purity that can only end in tears
Polling moves do seem to be against him, but from a very high base.
Apart from anything, who is 'They'? Presumably the EU. They don't want us to No Deal and indeed gave us an extension to try and help.
When a polling firm says they have polled members of party X, they probably go out of their way to ask questions about membership before it becomes clear that it is a poll about the members-election.
I predicted leave would win years before the referendum, and I was right, it doesnt mean every comment and prediction I made since is impossible to predict. Not even a correct prediction depending on the manner of it.
It's a binary outcome, he wins or he doesnt. I think he will win too, and I too think he will go for a GE. Does that mean anything I say must be true if he does go for a GE? Of course not.
https://youtu.be/_5aodBfdFTA
Boris will probably still win but it will be a pyrrhic victory, particularly if it ends up being marginal. He will make TMay look like the model decisive PM, as he goes down in history a the most unsuitable man to ever hold the post. Take your blinkers off man, it is pathetic to see such blind unquestioning sycophancy.
But Hunt is building a strong wider case on accountability and openness v shifty avoidance, which I think will start to chime among some of those voting. And this won't help.
I'm also fascinated as to how far putting out uncomfortable facts about No Deal (ie calling out all that GATT 24/implementation period guff) will be portrayed as Project Fear 2.0. It's one thing to wave your hand dismissively at Vince Cable or even Mark Carney saying it.. but if Bozza goes for the current foreign secretary and half his own party, it may not be a good look for the future.
(* I think it's probably earned capital letters by now
EDIT TO ADD: I'm not sure any of that will wipe out Boris's lead.. but as Mike suggests, it could be rather closer than some expected, and possibly dent his expectation of unadulterated cheering all the way to Number 10.
People are saying he is an utter, utter twat, lying scumbag and is wholly unfit to be our PM.
That is the central thrust of most peoples' comments on PB.
My wife and I suffered an 8 hour power outage on the 6th floor of our LA hotel completely trapped and used the in room fridge to keep our spirits up. At the same time Arnold Schwarzenegger was trying to hold a celebrity party on the ground floor
These are much too close together. There is a gap between Johnson being chosen by the Tory Membership and Johnson being proposed to the Queen by Mrs May as commanding the confidence of the House. There may already be conversations about this between the Queen and Mrs May at the weekly audiences.
I can Mrs May stepping done as Tory leader in late July but staying on as PM during the recess. It will be an interesting conference season!