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Tobias Elwood saying twelve Tory MPs are ready to VONC their own government if it is heading for no deal0
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Nearly a month of blue-on-blue action. As was said yesterday, the theory that any publicity in ggood publicity is being tested to destruction.SouthamObserver said:First Monday of the head to head and Johnson’s Brexit plan has been exposed as a total sham and Jeremy Hunt is promising to close down successful, profitable businesses. How long until we know the result?
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In reality no, the Good Friday Agreement only passed with majority support in NI in the 1998 referendum, it could be rejected in favour of a hard border with the Republic of Ireland in another NI referendumGallowgate said:@HYUFD doesn’t power sharing in Northern Ireland mean that majority rule is irrelevant?
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I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail articleMysticrose said:I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around1 -
Your steadfast commitment to this fiction is something to be admired.HYUFD said:
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP supportEl_Capitano said:
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.HYUFD said:
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.Foxy said:
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably opposed to anything that treats NI differently to the mainland. If you think that a referendum will make MPs fall in line behind the winning position, then I suggest you recap the last few years of British politics.1 -
What's the equivalent to the invasion of Poland to justify the hardship that we will endure and overcome?HYUFD said:0 -
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?HYUFD said:
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last weekalex. said:
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
But other than that he's a good bet.0 -
That first question needn't trouble us unduly. Especially as the options aren't mutually exclusive.TOPPING said:Priti Patel on R4 showing that either she is a moron or she believes her audience are morons.
Sensible Boris tactic that said - dissemble and bluster until it's all over. Definite shades of TMay's 2017 campaign. We shall see if it's successful this time round.0 -
In the absence of completely reliable data on the profile of the membership and access to everyone's records, the polling companies are presumably relying on people responding "Yes, I'm a member", and hoping that they'll be representative. Who knows?isam said:
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?AlastairMeeks said:
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
That said, my recollection is that they were pretty accurate for the Labour leadership election.0 -
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.Nigel_Foremain said:The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson.
Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA0 -
As I wrote yesterday your problem is that you have taken one version of events from Boris as gospel but the reality is that you have no idea whether or not he is playing you for a fool.HYUFD said:
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last weekalex. said:
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
But other than that he's a good bet.
He says all things to all people and you are a good and understandable example of someone who is choosing to believe one narrow set of pronouncements from him over any other.0 -
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iircAlastairMeeks said:
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.isam said:
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?AlastairMeeks said:
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.HYUFD said:
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.Nigel_Foremain said:The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson.
Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA0 -
Well that is complete crap, and defies history. It is true that it is not a good thing that many Tories see Ireland in a different way to the Irish. Scots need to be very careful pontificating over Ireland though, as there have been many Scots who have, as part of The Empire repressed the Irish. Without Protestant Scottish settlers in the North there would be no Northern Ireland, no Orange Order and no troubles.StuartDickson said:
Tories see no Ireland, hear no Ireland and speak no Ireland.alex. said:
You are aware that the backstop is there to protect Ireland, as well as Northern Ireland. The EU won't abandon the Republic just because the Northern Irish agree to it.HYUFD said:
The renegotiation is to remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked for not Barnier.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
Boris will also ask to remove the backstop or make it temporary, the EU will refuse so he will let NI decide in a referendum which the EU won't refuse0 -
tbf there are more difficult games to playTOPPING said:
As I wrote yesterday your problem is that you have taken one version of events from Boris as gospel but the reality is that you have no idea whether or not he is playing you for a fool.HYUFD said:
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last weekalex. said:
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
But other than that he's a good bet.
He says all things to all people and you are a good and understandable example of someone who is choosing to believe one narrow set of pronouncements from him over any other. 0 -
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yesFoxy said:
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?HYUFD said:
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last weekalex. said:
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
But other than that he's a good bet.0 -
Why are leavers obsessed by wars that they never fought in? It is militaristic and creepy. The irony is that WW2 was fought against people who were militaristic nationalists. The EU was part of a post war rejection of that poisonous philosophy.Gallowgate said:
The constant supply of food and other resources from the United States had nothing to do with it of course.HYUFD said:1 -
I'd have thought, if you can be sure that you are interviewing a member with a vote, then polling for a party's leadership contest should be more reliable given that turnout is likely to be very high. I'm not sure how easy that "if" is, though.Pulpstar said:
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iircAlastairMeeks said:
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.isam said:
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?AlastairMeeks said:
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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They humiliatingly agreed to our demands to leave instead of offering us inducements to stay, as many Brexiteers thought they would before the referendum if we voted Leave. A clear casus belli.OblitusSumMe said:
What's the equivalent to the invasion of Poland to justify the hardship that we will endure and overcome?HYUFD said:0 -
currently they're the only mainstream UK party that contests seatsStuartDickson said:
Tories see no Ireland, hear no Ireland and speak no Ireland.alex. said:
You are aware that the backstop is there to protect Ireland, as well as Northern Ireland. The EU won't abandon the Republic just because the Northern Irish agree to it.HYUFD said:
The renegotiation is to remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked for not Barnier.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
Boris will also ask to remove the backstop or make it temporary, the EU will refuse so he will let NI decide in a referendum which the EU won't refuse
your usual degree of accuracy0 -
Don't be naughty.IanB2 said:
tbf there are more difficult games to playTOPPING said:
As I wrote yesterday your problem is that you have taken one version of events from Boris as gospel but the reality is that you have no idea whether or not he is playing you for a fool.HYUFD said:
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last weekalex. said:
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
But other than that he's a good bet.
He says all things to all people and you are a good and understandable example of someone who is choosing to believe one narrow set of pronouncements from him over any other.1 -
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendumnichomar said:
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.HYUFD said:
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.Nigel_Foremain said:The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson.
Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA0 -
la la land again. We should call it Boris Island, where inconvenient truths and realities are harrumphed away with broad brush wild guesses about what the future holds.HYUFD said:
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP supportEl_Capitano said:
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.HYUFD said:
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.Foxy said:
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably opposed to anything that treats NI differently to the mainland. If you think that a referendum will make MPs fall in line behind the winning position, then I suggest you recap the last few years of British politics.1 -
A poll of 800 Tory members is polling 0.5% of the electorate. That must be a bonus, and I’d have thought people that answer would be more representative of the electorate than those who answer Westminster VI polls, as I think the latter tend to over represent the politically engaged.Pulpstar said:
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iircAlastairMeeks said:
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.isam said:
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?AlastairMeeks said:
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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Nick goes off messageisam said:I agree with Nick.
https://twitter.com/bbcr4today/status/1143049520844066817?s=21
Must need the cash0 -
Why would a change to the political declaration - which is hardly a binding element of the proposed deal - make any difference to the parliamentary arithmetic ?HYUFD said:
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendumnichomar said:
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.HYUFD said:
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.Nigel_Foremain said:The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson.
Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
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The Lisbon Treaty. Which should have had a referendum but Tony Blair and Gordon Brown reneged on that manifesto commitment due to knowing they would lose it. That started the insurmountable pressure that led to the referendum that was won by LeaveOblitusSumMe said:
What's the equivalent to the invasion of Poland to justify the hardship that we will endure and overcome?HYUFD said:0 -
But Priti Patel has just told us the that the WA is completely dead and we would be starting from scratch in the negotiations.HYUFD said:
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendumnichomar said:
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.HYUFD said:
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.Nigel_Foremain said:The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson.
Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA0 -
Statistically the former makes no difference, as the proportion of the population being sampled does not (until you get to much higher levels) have an effect on the accuracy of the sample.isam said:
A poll of 800 Tory members is polling 0.5% of the electorate. That must be a bonus, and I’d have thought people that answer would be more representative of the electorate than those who answer Westminster VI polls, as I think the latter tend to over represent the politically engaged.Pulpstar said:
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iircAlastairMeeks said:
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.isam said:
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?AlastairMeeks said:
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
The latter - removing one source of bias from a standard poll as party members are by definition likely to be politically engaged - is a fair point.
On the other hand, it will be more difficult to adjust for any biases in age/sex/class/geography etc. because there isn't data on the distribution of the base population of members.0 -
Exactly, which he won't actually do. Boris will fuck up Brexit and his relationship with supporters like you faster than he gets through girls that he fancies. Vote Boris for No Brexit! It would be funny were it not to be so tragic.HYUFD said:
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.Nigel_Foremain said:The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson.
Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
Still waiting for your answer on why he has the skills to be a good PM, rather than just winning a celebrity talent show called Britain Hasn't Got Much (Political) Talent0 -
Or the Tory members must be willing to change their minds en masse very quickly. Also not impossible but unlikely. Once a choice is made people dont like to change it - that others try to convince them to change will make them dig in their heels.AlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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Of course all this discussion of what Johnson would or would not do is irrelevant if he’s is no confidence before he’s been to see the queen.0
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As that was what most of the ERG who voted against the WA at MV3 (Boris voted for the WA at MV3 of course) are concerned about ie the temporary Customs Union for GB.Nigelb said:
Why would a change to the political declaration - which is hardly a binding element of the proposed deal - make any difference to the parliamentary arithmetic ?HYUFD said:
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendumnichomar said:
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.HYUFD said:
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.Nigel_Foremain said:The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson.
Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
It is the DUP concerned about the backstop, with a Tory majority the DUP and the handful of ERG diehards remaining could be ignored and the WA narrowly pass (add in a handful of Labour rebels like Flint and Stringer too who will vote for the WA again)0 -
HYUFD, what causes someone to give their heart and soul to someone as undeserving as Boris Johnson? A similar disease has infected the Corbynites. Total blind, unquestioning devotion.1
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Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?HYUFD said:
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yesFoxy said:
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?HYUFD said:
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last weekalex. said:
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
But other than that he's a good bet.
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I totally agree. I was diagnosed with a mental health issue in March (in my case depression). I needed 10 weeks off work before my medication got me to the point where I am able to function reasonably normally on most days. Luckily I have very supportive and understanding friends and family (and employers) but I'm well aware that there are still plenty of people in the world who don't understand - which in turn can put people who need help off from seeking that help.Charles said:
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail articleMysticrose said:I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around0 -
You predict that this occurs by the end of October. The WA needs to be agreed by parliament. So either Mr Johnson has to persuade more people to vote for the WA or win an election with enough time to spare to pass the WA.HYUFD said:
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendumnichomar said:
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.HYUFD said:
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.Nigel_Foremain said:The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson.
Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
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Apart from class, aren’t the numbers available for the categories in your last paragraph?IanB2 said:
Statistically the former makes no difference, as the proportion of the population being sampled does not (until you get to much higher levels) have an effect on the accuracy of the sample.isam said:
A poll of 800 Tory members is polling 0.5% of the electorate. That must be a bonus, and I’d have thought people that answer would be more representative of the electorate than those who answer Westminster VI polls, as I think the latter tend to over represent the politically engaged.Pulpstar said:
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iircAlastairMeeks said:
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.isam said:
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?AlastairMeeks said:
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
The latter - removing one source of bias from a standard poll as party members are by definition likely to be politically engaged - is a fair point.
On the other hand, it will be more difficult to adjust for any biases in age/sex/class/geography etc. because there isn't data on the distribution of the base population of members.0 -
HYUFD redux - Johnson is currently lying about his Brexit strategy.
https://twitter.com/backboris2019/status/1142505827452051463?s=210 -
If only we could get food and other resources from the US in the 21st century too. Oh wait we could.Gallowgate said:
The constant supply of food and other resources from the United States had nothing to do with it of course.HYUFD said:0 -
I am not sure it was worth Boris hiring Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf as his PB PR man. Keep up the good work though, it certainly is entertaining.HYUFD said:
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendumnichomar said:
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.HYUFD said:
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.Nigel_Foremain said:The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson.
Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
Boris is gradually frittering away his support and you know it. He is an empty suit. Full of platitudes, lies and no substance. the truth will out.1 -
Priti voted against the WA even at MV3 unlike Boris, with a clear Tory majority Boris can ignore herandypetuk said:
But Priti Patel has just told us the that the WA is completely dead and we would be starting from scratch in the negotiations.HYUFD said:
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendumnichomar said:
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.HYUFD said:
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.Nigel_Foremain said:The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson.
Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA0 -
Absolutely la la land. Hyufd is a blinkered Boris disciple and is living in an alternative universeNigel_Foremain said:
la la land again. We should call it Boris Island, where inconvenient truths and realities are harrumphed away with broad brush wild guesses about what the future holds.HYUFD said:
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP supportEl_Capitano said:
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.HYUFD said:
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.Foxy said:
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably opposed to anything that treats NI differently to the mainland. If you think that a referendum will make MPs fall in line behind the winning position, then I suggest you recap the last few years of British politics.
I said it some days ago that Boris shows all the signs of realising he is just a few weeks from being PM and is now at the point that he knows he cannot achieve his promised unicorns ( he is after all very intelligent) and is hiding away and frankly looking as if he is in a blind panic.
Our ballot papers arrive on the 6th July and will be returned very quickly so at best there is only 14 days or so for him to face the cameras and come out fighting, otherwise he may well find he is in a very close race
Indeed I do not think it is impossible that we may see him withdraw from the race
Of course in my wife's case she cannot stand him, much like most ladies, and both her and my votes are going to Hunt1 -
Indeed.Jonathan said:HYUFD, what causes someone to give their heart and soul to someone as undeserving as Boris Johnson? A similar disease has infected the Corbynites. Total blind, unquestioning devotion.
Tribalism. Blind, unthinking, fanatical devotion to someone even when everyone else can start to see the truth.0 -
Perhaps the idea of chlorinated chicken would have more appeal if if were sold as part of the war effort against the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
If only we could get food and other resources from the US in the 21st century too. Oh wait we could.Gallowgate said:
The constant supply of food and other resources from the United States had nothing to do with it of course.HYUFD said:0 -
Carole Cadwalldr will have to get her thinking cap onAlanbrooke said:
Nick goes off messageisam said:I agree with Nick.
https://twitter.com/bbcr4today/status/1143049520844066817?s=21
Must need the cash0 -
I hope you tin foil hat opponents of it don't drink your chlorinated tap water ...williamglenn said:
Perhaps the idea of chlorinated chicken would have more appeal if if were sold as part of the war effort against the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
If only we could get food and other resources from the US in the 21st century too. Oh wait we could.Gallowgate said:
The constant supply of food and other resources from the United States had nothing to do with it of course.HYUFD said:0 -
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?IanB2 said:
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?HYUFD said:
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yesFoxy said:
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?HYUFD said:
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last weekalex. said:
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
But other than that he's a good bet.0 -
He wins the electioneristdoof said:
You predict that this occurs by the end of October. The WA needs to be agreed by parliament. So either Mr Johnson has to persuade more people to vote for the WA or win an election with enough time to spare to pass the WA.HYUFD said:
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendumnichomar said:
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.HYUFD said:
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.Nigel_Foremain said:The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson.
Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA0 -
I don't think the Tory party publishes this information. There have been some polls used to inform various semi-academic studies, but there must be risks in using one poll's findings to weight another?isam said:
Apart from class, aren’t the numbers available for the categories in your last paragraph?IanB2 said:
Statistically the former makes no difference, as the proportion of the population being sampled does not (until you get to much higher levels) have an effect on the accuracy of the sample.isam said:
A poll of 800 Tory members is polling 0.5% of the electorate. That must be a bonus, and I’d have thought people that answer would be more representative of the electorate than those who answer Westminster VI polls, as I think the latter tend to over represent the politically engaged.Pulpstar said:
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iircAlastairMeeks said:
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.isam said:
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?AlastairMeeks said:
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
The latter - removing one source of bias from a standard poll as party members are by definition likely to be politically engaged - is a fair point.
On the other hand, it will be more difficult to adjust for any biases in age/sex/class/geography etc. because there isn't data on the distribution of the base population of members.0 -
after infected dutch eggs and horse meat as beef chlorinated chicken is going to fit right inwilliamglenn said:
Perhaps the idea of chlorinated chicken would have more appeal if if were sold as part of the war effort against the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
If only we could get food and other resources from the US in the 21st century too. Oh wait we could.Gallowgate said:
The constant supply of food and other resources from the United States had nothing to do with it of course.HYUFD said:0 -
Oh, believe me, don't I know.Charles said:
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail articleMysticrose said:I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around
It's not throwing it around. He needs professional help. The last thing he needs right now are the keys to No 10.
Leading this country at any time and especially through Brexit is a very serious topic and shouldn't be thrown around.0 -
I know it is anecdotal, but I doubt my wife will vote for him either. I certainly won't, and it isn't because of Brexit. It is simply he doesn't have the skills, attention to detail or consistency to hold the post. It is way way beyond his limited abilities. He is a raconteur, a polemicist, a journalist after a fashion and a game show host. This country has been humiliated enough. Having a clown as PM would be the last straw.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Absolutely la la land. Hyufd is a blinkered Boris disciple and is living in an alternative universeNigel_Foremain said:
la la land again. We should call it Boris Island, where inconvenient truths and realities are harrumphed away with broad brush wild guesses about what the future holds.HYUFD said:
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP supportEl_Capitano said:
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.HYUFD said:
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.Foxy said:
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably opposed to anything that treats NI differently to the mainland. If you think that a referendum will make MPs fall in line behind the winning position, then I suggest you recap the last few years of British politics.
I said it some days ago that Boris shows all the signs of realising he is just a few weeks from being PM and is now at the point that he knows he cannot achieve his promised unicorns ( he is after all very intelligent) and is hiding away and frankly looking as if he is in a blind panic.
Our ballot papers arrive on the 6th July and will be returned very quickly so at best there is only 14 days or so for him to face the cameras and come out fighting, otherwise he may well find he is in a very close race
Indeed I do not think it is impossible that we may see him withdraw from the race
Of course in my wife's case she cannot stand him, much like most ladies, and both her and my votes are going to Hunt0 -
I did laugh, calamity Clegg strikes againisam said:
Carole Cadwalldr will have to get her thinking cap onAlanbrooke said:
Nick goes off messageisam said:I agree with Nick.
https://twitter.com/bbcr4today/status/1143049520844066817?s=21
Must need the cash0 -
Boris is technically not lying by sticking to a Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st position to win the election.kle4 said:
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?IanB2 said:
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?HYUFD said:
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yesFoxy said:
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?HYUFD said:
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last weekalex. said:
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
But other than that he's a good bet.
Once that is done he can then shift but only once he has the majority can his true intentions be made clear0 -
Mr. Foremain, hopefully we won't find out. A clown would be very bad, but a far left cabal would be even worse.0
-
For the first time this morning I am beginning to think the incredible will happen: he pulls out.Nigel_Foremain said:
I know it is anecdotal, but I doubt my wife will vote for him either. I certainly won't, and it isn't because of Brexit. It is simply he doesn't have the skills, attention to detail or consistency to hold the post. It is way way beyond his limited abilities. He is a raconteur, a polemicist, a journalist after a fashion and a game show host. This country has been humiliated enough. Having a clown as PM would be the last straw.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Absolutely la la land. Hyufd is a blinkered Boris disciple and is living in an alternative universeNigel_Foremain said:
la la land again. We should call it Boris Island, where inconvenient truths and realities are harrumphed away with broad brush wild guesses about what the future holds.HYUFD said:
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP supportEl_Capitano said:
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.HYUFD said:
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.Foxy said:
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably opposed to anything that treats NI differently to the mainland. If you think that a referendum will make MPs fall in line behind the winning position, then I suggest you recap the last few years of British politics.
snip
Our ballot papers arrive on the 6th July and will be returned very quickly so at best there is only 14 days or so for him to face the cameras and come out fighting, otherwise he may well find he is in a very close race
Indeed I do not think it is impossible that we may see him withdraw from the race
Of course in my wife's case she cannot stand him, much like most ladies, and both her and my votes are going to Hunt0 -
You seem to be very sure about what these people will do, Mr HY. Have they all shared with you their innermost thoughts? Or is it just wishful thinking on your part?HYUFD said:
The renegotiation is to remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked for not Barnier.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
Boris will also ask to remove the backstop or make it temporary, the EU will refuse so he will let NI decide in a referendum which the EU won't refuse0 -
Mr. Borough, that would be astonishing.
I hope you're right but I won't be putting money on it.0 -
Both you and BigG were Remainers, most Tory members were and are LeaversNigel_Foremain said:
I know it is anecdotal, but I doubt my wife will vote for him either. I certainly won't, and it isn't because of Brexit. It is simply he doesn't have the skills, attention to detail or consistency to hold the post. It is way way beyond his limited abilities. He is a raconteur, a polemicist, a journalist after a fashion and a game show host. This country has been humiliated enough. Having a clown as PM would be the last straw.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Absolutely la la land. Hyufd is a blinkered Boris disciple and is living in an alternative universeNigel_Foremain said:
la la land again. We should call it Boris Island, where inconvenient truths and realities are harrumphed away with broad brush wild guesses about what the future holds.HYUFD said:
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP supportEl_Capitano said:
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.HYUFD said:
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.Foxy said:
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably tish politics.
I said it some days ago that Boris shows all the signs of realising he is just a few weeks from being PM and is now at the point that he knows he cannot achieve his promised unicorns ( he is after all very intelligent) and is hiding away and frankly looking as if he is in a blind panic.
Our ballot papers arrive on the 6th July and will be returned very quickly so at best there is only 14 days or so for him to face the cameras and come out fighting, otherwise he may well find he is in a very close race
Indeed I do not think it is impossible that we may see him withdraw from the race
Of course in my wife's case she cannot stand him, much like most ladies, and both her and my votes are going to Hunt0 -
I’m sure I’ve recently seen headlines or tweets saying ‘The PM is going to be chosen by a group of 73 year old men when the average age of a voter is 46” or some such, and the memberships of each branch can’t be that hard to find I’d have thoughtIanB2 said:
I don't think the Tory party publishes this information. There have been some polls used to inform various semi-academic studies, but there must be risks in using one poll's findings to weight another?isam said:
Apart from class, aren’t the numbers available for the categories in your last paragraph?IanB2 said:
Statistically the former makes no difference, as the proportion of the population being sampled does not (until you get to much higher levels) have an effect on the accuracy of the sample.isam said:
A poll of 800 Tory members is polling 0.5% of the electorate. That must be a bonus, and I’d have thought people that answer would be more representative of the electorate than those who answer Westminster VI polls, as I think the latter tend to over represent the politically engaged.Pulpstar said:
Sure, Yougov Labour member polling was very good though iircAlastairMeeks said:
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.isam said:
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?AlastairMeeks said:
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
The latter - removing one source of bias from a standard poll as party members are by definition likely to be politically engaged - is a fair point.
On the other hand, it will be more difficult to adjust for any biases in age/sex/class/geography etc. because there isn't data on the distribution of the base population of members.
My take is that polling of smaller, private clubs should be more accurate than that of a country, mainly because of the politically engaged factor0 -
Thats a new one. How can anyone be 'technically not lying'HYUFD said:
Boris is technically not lying by sticking to a Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st position to win the election.kle4 said:
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?IanB2 said:
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?HYUFD said:
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yesFoxy said:
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?HYUFD said:
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last weekalex. said:
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
But other than that he's a good bet.
Once that is done he can then shift but only once he has the majority can his true intentions be made clear
Either he is lying or not0 -
HY's position appears to be that Boris will stick absolutely to his Brexit Plan - which he himself hasn't spelled out but someone else did so on Twitter so it must be true. Whilst at the same time deceiving us and his colleagues when he insists he isn't shooting for an early election - despite the latter promise being the more credible since he won't be throwing away finally achieving his ambition.kle4 said:
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?IanB2 said:
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?HYUFD said:
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yesFoxy said:
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?HYUFD said:
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last weekalex. said:
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
But other than that he's a good bet.
There may well be an early election - but it will arise if Boris is rejected as PM, not because he gets the job and calls one. Once he gets his bum on the seat he'll turn into Mrs May and cling to it like a limpet, hoping his bluster and ducking and weaving will see him through.0 -
I’m not convinced Boris is going to win his own seat, let alone the country (and have a small bet with isam to that effect!).HYUFD said:He wins the election
0 -
Like cancer.Charles said:
I find it really disturbing when people speculate about mental health based on s couple of photos and a daily mail articleMysticrose said:I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
It’s a very serious topic and shouldn’t be thrown around0 -
Oh my Goodness, have you really read what you just wrote. You are saying it is OK for him to lie about this to win the election with the gullible faithful. I always said Brexit was like a very irrational religion. Boris is clearly one of it's deities. God spare us from false prophets!HYUFD said:
Boris is technically not lying by sticking to a Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st position to win the election.kle4 said:
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?IanB2 said:
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?HYUFD said:
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yesFoxy said:
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?HYUFD said:
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last weekalex. said:
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
But other than that he's a good bet.
Once that is done he can then shift but only once he has the majority can his true intentions be made clear0 -
Technically not lying? Is that any different to lying?HYUFD said:
Boris is technically not lying by sticking to a Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st position to win the election.kle4 said:
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?IanB2 said:
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?HYUFD said:
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yesFoxy said:
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?HYUFD said:
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last weekalex. said:
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
But other than that he's a good bet.
Once that is done he can then shift but only once he has the majority can his true intentions be made clear0 -
Convicted wife beater* Geoffrey Boycott isn't even particularly insightful when he's talking about cricket. I am not minded to pay much attention to his views on the economic impact of a no deal Brexit.HYUFD said:
So bored of these old men wanking on about the war - which none of them even fought in (perhaps that's the problem).
* not technically his wife, but he was convicted by a French court of punching her in the face.0 -
So he has promised things to some groups of supporters intending to ignore them later? What a smashing chap he is.HYUFD said:
Priti voted against the WA even at MV3 unlike Boris, with a clear Tory majority Boris can ignore herandypetuk said:
But Priti Patel has just told us the that the WA is completely dead and we would be starting from scratch in the negotiations.HYUFD said:
If the Withdrawal Agreement passes with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed from the PD (as Boris is aiming for) then we move to the transition period in which FTA talks can begin and the backstop can be decided by NI voters by confirmatory referendumnichomar said:
Is that without the deal? Because if no deal then no discussion on FTA until we pay up £39 billion, accept the backstop and something else I forget. Until that happens we’re on WTO rules with all the associated issues.HYUFD said:
Hunt means further extension as his Today programme interview this morning showed.Nigel_Foremain said:The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson.
Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!
Boris means Leave in October and move to a GB FTA
You're like William Glenn and the EU - you back something, but make it seem a lot worse than it actually is in the ways you support it.
Perhaps Boris will win a GE, but even stopped clocks etc etc, and you are as worshipful as a Corbynite kneeling at the alter.
Seriously it is religious - the massive over interpretation of brief snippets of text or remarks into detailed screed, the belief in the infallibility of the deity, the rapid change in position to support the new orthodoxy as it changes, the explaining what he means even if he hasn't said it. Its uncanny0 -
What time is Lynton's dead cat landing?0
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I'm actually curious what the first major hiccup or scandal will be for Hunt. Hes bound to have one.0
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You are not getting away with that about my motives.HYUFD said:
Both you and BigG were Remainers, most Tory members were and are LeaversNigel_Foremain said:
I know it is anecdotal, but I doubt my wife will vote for him either. I certainly won't, and it isn't because of Brexit. It is simply he doesn't have the skills, attention to detail or consistency to hold the post. It is way way beyond his limited abilities. He is a raconteur, a polemicist, a journalist after a fashion and a game show host. This country has been humiliated enough. Having a clown as PM would be the last straw.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Absolutely la la land. Hyufd is a blinkered Boris disciple and is living in an alternative universeNigel_Foremain said:
la la land again. We should call it Boris Island, where inconvenient truths and realities are harrumphed away with broad brush wild guesses about what the future holds.HYUFD said:
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP supportEl_Capitano said:HYUFD said:
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop onlyFoxy said:
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably tish politics.
I said it some days ago that Boris shows all the signs of realising he is just a few weeks from being PM and is now at the point that he knows he cannot achieve his promised unicorns ( he is after all very intelligent) and is hiding away and frankly looking as if he is in a blind panic.
Our ballot papers arrive on the 6th July and will be returned very quickly so at best there is only 14 days or so for him to face the cameras and come out fighting, otherwise he may well find he is in a very close race
Indeed I do not think it is impossible that we may see him withdraw from the race
Of course in my wife's case she cannot stand him, much like most ladies, and both her and my votes are going to Hunt
I have always supported the result of the referendum as you well know. You are a zealot of nonsensical purity that can only end in tears0 -
Mr. Isam, I do think Boris is going to end up winning, and being rubbish.
Polling moves do seem to be against him, but from a very high base.0 -
Yep. Same old saloon bar crap from old men who grew up in the 1950s and had nothing directly to do with the War. The Greatest Generation are now in their 90s.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Convicted wife beater* Geoffrey Boycott isn't even particularly insightful when he's talking about cricket. I am not minded to pay much attention to his views on the economic impact of a no deal Brexit.HYUFD said:
So bored of these old men wanking on about the war - which none of them even fought in (perhaps that's the problem).
* not technically his wife, but he was convicted by a French court of punching her in the face.
Apart from anything, who is 'They'? Presumably the EU. They don't want us to No Deal and indeed gave us an extension to try and help.0 -
It is harder, but doable provided you set the survey up to get a representative subsample. Most political polls do not do this, they only stratify at the highest level.AlastairMeeks said:
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.isam said:
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?AlastairMeeks said:
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
When a polling firm says they have polled members of party X, they probably go out of their way to ask questions about membership before it becomes clear that it is a poll about the members-election.0 -
How can any brexit supporting politician deride corbyn for economic incompetence? They are both bat shit crazy and to be equally derided.0
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I've rarely had such a sense of an interviewee's skull being made of solid teak.IanB2 said:Today's Boris stooge on R4 is Priti Patel.
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You are pretending the derision is purely about what is predicted and not the manner of it and the fanatic tribalism.isam said:Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
I predicted leave would win years before the referendum, and I was right, it doesnt mean every comment and prediction I made since is impossible to predict. Not even a correct prediction depending on the manner of it.
It's a binary outcome, he wins or he doesnt. I think he will win too, and I too think he will go for a GE. Does that mean anything I say must be true if he does go for a GE? Of course not.0 -
Can you please explain "technically not lying". I'm genuinely puzzled. You must think that he is not lying in some technical way. Can you elucidate?HYUFD said:
Boris is technically not lying by sticking to a Brexit Deal or No Deal by October 31st position to win the election.kle4 said:
Hyufd's position appears to be that Johnson is not being honest about what his plan is and will be massively rewarded for that. If he is going to get a majority with thst plan why bother with the official plan A at all?IanB2 said:
Where is this majority coming from, given that Boris insisted just last week that he would not go for an early election?HYUFD said:
It is what his advisers are preparing for and with a majority yesFoxy said:
Can a man who doesn't understand that neither GATT 24 not an implementation period exist in a No Deal Brexit pilot such a Baldrickian cunning plan through a fractious parliament?HYUFD said:
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last weekalex. said:
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
But other than that he's a good bet.
Once that is done he can then shift but only once he has the majority can his true intentions be made clear0 -
This didn’t give you a clue? Supporters of the death penalty usually are thick as mince.Theuniondivvie said:
I've rarely had such a sense of an interviewee's skull being made of solid teak.IanB2 said:Today's Boris stooge on R4 is Priti Patel.
https://youtu.be/_5aodBfdFTA0 -
Mid to late seventies would suit me better !!!!!!rottenborough said:
Yep. Same old saloon bar crap from old men who grew up in the 1950s and had nothing directly to do with the War. The Greatest Generation are now in their 90s.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Convicted wife beater* Geoffrey Boycott isn't even particularly insightful when he's talking about cricket. I am not minded to pay much attention to his views on the economic impact of a no deal Brexit.HYUFD said:
So bored of these old men wanking on about the war - which none of them even fought in (perhaps that's the problem).
* not technically his wife, but he was convicted by a French court of punching her in the face.
Apart from anything, who is 'They'? Presumably the EU. They don't want us to No Deal and indeed gave us an extension to try and help.0 -
Mr HYUFD, dismissing myself and others as we were (sharp intake of breath) remainers is very silly. We still have a vote, and dare I say some influence.
Boris will probably still win but it will be a pyrrhic victory, particularly if it ends up being marginal. He will make TMay look like the model decisive PM, as he goes down in history a the most unsuitable man to ever hold the post. Take your blinkers off man, it is pathetic to see such blind unquestioning sycophancy.0 -
It is not HYUFD being criticised, but his opinions, and his opinions are criticised because they are unlikely scenarios presented as near certainties. I do not think it is out of place in a political forum to counter such claims, especially on a political forum where betting prices and probabilities are much better understood.isam said:Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
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Foreign Secretary in waiting.TOPPING said:Priti Patel on R4 showing that either she is a moron or she believes her audience are morons.
Sensible Boris tactic that said - dissemble and bluster until it's all over. Definite shades of TMay's 2017 campaign. We shall see if it's successful this time round.0 -
There aren’t many on here who couldn’t be similarly derided.kle4 said:
You are pretending the derision is purely about what is predicted and not the manner of it and the fanatic tribalism.isam said:Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
I predicted leave would win years before the referendum, and I was right, it doesnt mean every comment and prediction I made since is impossible to predict. Not even a correct prediction depending on the manner of it.
It's a binary outcome, he wins or he doesnt. I think he will win too, and I too think he will go for a GE. Does that mean anything I say must be true if he does go for a GE? Of course not.0 -
I'm not sure The Incident* will change many minds in this electorate.
But Hunt is building a strong wider case on accountability and openness v shifty avoidance, which I think will start to chime among some of those voting. And this won't help.
I'm also fascinated as to how far putting out uncomfortable facts about No Deal (ie calling out all that GATT 24/implementation period guff) will be portrayed as Project Fear 2.0. It's one thing to wave your hand dismissively at Vince Cable or even Mark Carney saying it.. but if Bozza goes for the current foreign secretary and half his own party, it may not be a good look for the future.
(* I think it's probably earned capital letters by now)
EDIT TO ADD: I'm not sure any of that will wipe out Boris's lead.. but as Mike suggests, it could be rather closer than some expected, and possibly dent his expectation of unadulterated cheering all the way to Number 10.0 -
No one is doubting he could win (he's red for me but that's an emotional and dear god does no one have any common sense bet).isam said:Seems our friend @HYUFD, derided for saying 1/4 shot Boris was most likely to win the leadership whilst the shrewdies were advising laying him at 5/1, is under fire again.
PB Remainer anecdote vs Polling, to paraphrase an old site ‘favourite’
People are saying he is an utter, utter twat, lying scumbag and is wholly unfit to be our PM.
That is the central thrust of most peoples' comments on PB.0 -
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I stopped taking Boycott seriosly when he started criticising batsmen for not scoring quickly enough. In otherwords as soon as he started cricket commentary.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Convicted wife beater* Geoffrey Boycott isn't even particularly insightful when he's talking about cricket. I am not minded to pay much attention to his views on the economic impact of a no deal Brexit.HYUFD said:
So bored of these old men wanking on about the war - which none of them even fought in (perhaps that's the problem).
* not technically his wife, but he was convicted by a French court of punching her in the face.
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He let Mark Field tongue the tonsils of his missus?kle4 said:I'm actually curious what the first major hiccup or scandal will be for Hunt. Hes bound to have one.
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Good morning Malcmalcolmg said:
LA is a horrible placeMaxPB said:Finally out of central LA thank god. Back to San Diego for the first time in a while, it's still probably the only place I'd consider moving to in the US, well that and Venice/Santa Monica.
My wife and I suffered an 8 hour power outage on the 6th floor of our LA hotel completely trapped and used the in room fridge to keep our spirits up. At the same time Arnold Schwarzenegger was trying to hold a celebrity party on the ground floor0 -
Johnson is 1.25-1,26 as next Tory Leader, and 1.27-1.28 as next PM.
These are much too close together. There is a gap between Johnson being chosen by the Tory Membership and Johnson being proposed to the Queen by Mrs May as commanding the confidence of the House. There may already be conversations about this between the Queen and Mrs May at the weekly audiences.
I can Mrs May stepping done as Tory leader in late July but staying on as PM during the recess. It will be an interesting conference season!
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As I mentioned upthread, it is job done for the Boris campaign. Bluster, dissemble, lie, whatever. Get him over the line with the members.Theuniondivvie said:
I've rarely had such a sense of an interviewee's skull being made of solid teak.IanB2 said:Today's Boris stooge on R4 is Priti Patel.
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