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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the CON race continues to be about character them it might be a lot closer than anybody thought
When at the launch of the Boris campaign a fortnight ago the Sky journalist, Beth Rigby, sought to raise the question of character she got loudly booed by many of those attending. It was the same yesterday at the the first hustings in Birmingham when Iain Dale sought to raise the issue that’s been dominating the news with Johnson. This didn’t come over well on TV.
Comments
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As @rottenborough said on the last thread, Lynton Crosby will be looking for dead cats to throw on the table.
If the Mirror story is right that Boris is trying to get back with Marina, then that makes his domestic life more complicated and perhaps more likely Boris might need to pull out, but there does not seem to be much in the other papers to support it.0 -
The trouble for Boris and Crosby's strategy of protecting your lead by avoiding debate (same with Theresa May and Cameron in the last two general elections) is that in light of recent developments, it now comes across as evasive.
And Boris's natural instinct, his style, is evasive. Look at almost any old interview and most questions, however innocuous, are deflected with bluster and anecdote.0 -
Boris Johnson is “yearning” for estranged wife Marina Wheeler, despite being with Carrie Symonds, pals claim. But they warn she will never have him back. One said: “He would like what he had before.”DecrepitJohnL said:If the Mirror story is right
Friends of Mr Johnson, who claim he is pining for his ex-wife, fear that could be behind his row with lover Carrie. The 55-year-old PM hopeful is said to be finding his split from Marina Wheeler extremely painful.
Pals even claim he was agonising over whether she could attempt a reconciliation, despite her starting divorce proceedings last year over his cheating. But they also said Marina, his wife of 25 years and mum of four of his children, is still furious with him and would never take him back. One said: “This is a classic example of Boris wanting to have his cake and eat it.”
It comes as an expert warned Mr Johnson’s “erratic” personal life could leave him open to the threat of blackmail, making him a security risk in No10.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-wants-wife-back-16939178
With "pals" like these, who needs enemies?0 -
This from Matt last week still rings true:
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/11410364091947212810 -
The fact that more stories regarding Boris's private life have come out so early in the campaign means that they'll probably be forgotten about about by the time ballot papers arrive in two weeks time.
Anyway we're talking about Tory party members here and I can assure you that they really couldn't give a damn what political opponents say or do.
A few of their MPs who voted for Boris might start having second thoughts though.0 -
The Mail's take (and first story on the website):
From the first flush of love to rows with his girlfriend after browsing two-for-one wine offers in his local Tesco Express: JANE FRYER asks if crumpled, unstatesmanlike Boris is feeling the strain during his bid to be PM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7173013/JANE-FRYER-asks-crumpled-unstatesmanlike-Boris-feeling-strain-bid-PM.html0 -
Finally out of central LA thank god. Back to San Diego for the first time in a while, it's still probably the only place I'd consider moving to in the US, well that and Venice/Santa Monica.0
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If half that article is true, he sounds like he’ll soon be in need of some psychological help.CarlottaVance said:The Mail's take (and first story on the website):
From the first flush of love to rows with his girlfriend after browsing two-for-one wine offers in his local Tesco Express: JANE FRYER asks if crumpled, unstatesmanlike Boris is feeling the strain during his bid to be PM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7173013/JANE-FRYER-asks-crumpled-unstatesmanlike-Boris-feeling-strain-bid-PM.html0 -
Its the Mirror.. a sense of perspective is required. Anything in the Mirror will by hyperbole if its bad for BorisCarlottaVance said:
Boris Johnson is “yearning” for estranged wife Marina Wheeler, despite being with Carrie Symonds, pals claim. But they warn she will never have him back. One said: “He would like what he had before.”DecrepitJohnL said:If the Mirror story is right
Friends of Mr Johnson, who claim he is pining for his ex-wife, fear that could be behind his row with lover Carrie. The 55-year-old PM hopeful is said to be finding his split from Marina Wheeler extremely painful.
Pals even claim he was agonising over whether she could attempt a reconciliation, despite her starting divorce proceedings last year over his cheating. But they also said Marina, his wife of 25 years and mum of four of his children, is still furious with him and would never take him back. One said: “This is a classic example of Boris wanting to have his cake and eat it.”
It comes as an expert warned Mr Johnson’s “erratic” personal life could leave him open to the threat of blackmail, making him a security risk in No10.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-wants-wife-back-16939178
With "pals" like these, who needs enemies?0 -
Given what happened at the BBC debate, I'm not surprised that Boris is refusing to do another, even if it is with a different broadcaster.CarlottaVance said:This from Matt last week still rings true:
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/11410364091947212810 -
He wasn't doing media before that one. He just isn't very good at that sort of thing.tlg86 said:
Given what happened at the BBC debate, I'm not surprised that Boris is refusing to do another, even if it is with a different broadcaster.CarlottaVance said:This from Matt last week still rings true:
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/11410364091947212810 -
Doubtless a story on Boris' bowel movements next.CarlottaVance said:The Mail's take (and first story on the website):
From the first flush of love to rows with his girlfriend after browsing two-for-one wine offers in his local Tesco Express: JANE FRYER asks if crumpled, unstatesmanlike Boris is feeling the strain during his bid to be PM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7173013/JANE-FRYER-asks-crumpled-unstatesmanlike-Boris-feeling-strain-bid-PM.html0 -
How about a story on how the candidate that is supposed to be a great election winner doesn't know how to handle a public meeting?Pulpstar said:
Doubtless a story on Boris' bowel movements next.CarlottaVance said:The Mail's take (and first story on the website):
From the first flush of love to rows with his girlfriend after browsing two-for-one wine offers in his local Tesco Express: JANE FRYER asks if crumpled, unstatesmanlike Boris is feeling the strain during his bid to be PM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7173013/JANE-FRYER-asks-crumpled-unstatesmanlike-Boris-feeling-strain-bid-PM.html0 -
Just found the story about Boris' car... Really quite warming to him now.0
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The media seem to be missing that one amidst the reports that he keeps old sweet wrappers in his car and has a girlfriend who is a bit loud when they have a row. Oh and his backpack is a bit crumpled when browsing the two for one wines in Tesco.Recidivist said:
How about a story on how the candidate that is supposed to be a great election winner doesn't know how to handle a public meeting?Pulpstar said:
Doubtless a story on Boris' bowel movements next.CarlottaVance said:The Mail's take (and first story on the website):
From the first flush of love to rows with his girlfriend after browsing two-for-one wine offers in his local Tesco Express: JANE FRYER asks if crumpled, unstatesmanlike Boris is feeling the strain during his bid to be PM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7173013/JANE-FRYER-asks-crumpled-unstatesmanlike-Boris-feeling-strain-bid-PM.html0 -
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I found that Daily Mail piece really interesting, as is this thread header.
I thought yesterday that Boris looked deeply unhappy. In fact, I wondered if he might be about to throw in the towel. The spotlight is (rightly) on him like never before, and he doesn't like it. If he continues like this he may be heading for a breakdown, like his mother.
It seems to me that he needs help. Escaping into high office at a time like this isn't going to be healing for him, or the country.
The contest should be between Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.0 -
Before Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen, might she not test that he has the confidence of the House with a motion "This House has confidence in a Government led by Boris Johnson"? If several Tory MPs have written to her expressing no confidence in him she might feel obliged to do so. The Queen might even suggest it.
If Mrs May makes the motion amendable, it enables a number of potentisl candidates for PM to test the confidence of the House with their own manifesto.0 -
The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.0
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Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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I think it's very likely he is going to be next Tory leader but much less likely that he is going to be next PM.AlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
This would be the first time that party members have chosen a PM. it would be good for democracy that a precedent is set that this choice is automatically tested by a vote of confidence by the House.0 -
The same stuff in the Mail is available if you prefer a different font.SquareRoot said:
Its the Mirror.. a sense of perspective is required. Anything in the Mirror will by hyperbole if its bad for BorisCarlottaVance said:
Boris Johnson is “yearning” for estranged wife Marina Wheeler, despite being with Carrie Symonds, pals claim. But they warn she will never have him back. One said: “He would like what he had before.”DecrepitJohnL said:If the Mirror story is right
Friends of Mr Johnson, who claim he is pining for his ex-wife, fear that could be behind his row with lover Carrie. The 55-year-old PM hopeful is said to be finding his split from Marina Wheeler extremely painful.
Pals even claim he was agonising over whether she could attempt a reconciliation, despite her starting divorce proceedings last year over his cheating. But they also said Marina, his wife of 25 years and mum of four of his children, is still furious with him and would never take him back. One said: “This is a classic example of Boris wanting to have his cake and eat it.”
It comes as an expert warned Mr Johnson’s “erratic” personal life could leave him open to the threat of blackmail, making him a security risk in No10.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-wants-wife-back-16939178
With "pals" like these, who needs enemies?1 -
First Monday of the head to head and Johnson’s Brexit plan has been exposed as a total sham and Jeremy Hunt is promising to close down successful, profitable businesses. How long until we know the result?0
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This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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Bets on Gove or Lidington as next PM (not Leader) might still come good.0
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Very rarely that wrong, the polling in the Michigan Democratic primary in 2016 was the last error that would have been sufficient in scale to get Hunt close.SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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Good morning, everyone.
Still very unlikely Hunt will win.0 -
I seem to recall Mrs May having 20% plus poll leads.. that worked out well..Pulpstar said:
Very rarely that wrong, the polling in the Michigan Democratic primary in 2016 was the last error that would have been sufficient in scale to get Hunt close.SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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Although what we would need here is some combination of favourable polling error and two more weeks of trend.Pulpstar said:
Very rarely that wrong, the polling in the Michigan Democratic primary in 2016 was the last error that would have been sufficient in scale to get Hunt close.SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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Boris Johnson’s erratic private life make him a security risk.
#HasToBeHunt0 -
The press may be interested in character and Boris' private life, the Tory membership are interested in Brexit.
On the debates Boris did the BBC debate last month and will do more TV debates head to head with Hunt next month as well as all the husting they are both taking part in across the country0 -
Not in the final pollingSquareRoot said:
I seem to recall Mrs May having 20% plus poll leads.. that worked out well..Pulpstar said:
Very rarely that wrong, the polling in the Michigan Democratic primary in 2016 was the last error that would have been sufficient in scale to get Hunt close.SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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And when Bozo fails to deliver Brexit in October all you will be left with will be a buffoon in Downing Street.HYUFD said:The press may be interested in character and Boris' private life, the Tory membership are interested in Brexit.
On the debates Boris did the BBC debate last month and will do more TV debates head to head with Hunt next month as well as all the husting they are both taking part in across the country
How soon until MPs can send their letters to the 1922 to get rid of him?0 -
Remember even on Thursday Boris only won 51% of Tory MPs, a majority of whom voted Remain and a few of whom only voted for him once it was clear he would get to the final two and likely win the majority Leave voting membership.DeClare said:The fact that more stories regarding Boris's private life have come out so early in the campaign means that they'll probably be forgotten about about by the time ballot papers arrive in two weeks time.
Anyway we're talking about Tory party members here and I can assure you that they really couldn't give a damn what political opponents say or do.
A few of their MPs who voted for Boris might start having second thoughts though.
Had it just been MPs who made the final decision as it was until 2001 then most of Gove's backers would have gone to Hunt and Hunt might have won.0 -
And like the coward Boris Johnson she also chickened out of debates.SquareRoot said:
I seem to recall Mrs May having 20% plus poll leads.. that worked out well..Pulpstar said:
Very rarely that wrong, the polling in the Michigan Democratic primary in 2016 was the last error that would have been sufficient in scale to get Hunt close.SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=210 -
Boris can win a majority and then deliver BrexitSandyRentool said:
And when Bozo fails to deliver Brexit in October all you will be left with will be a buffoon in Downing Street.HYUFD said:The press may be interested in character and Boris' private life, the Tory membership are interested in Brexit.
On the debates Boris did the BBC debate last month and will do more TV debates head to head with Hunt next month as well as all the husting they are both taking part in across the country
How soon until MPs can send their letters to the 1922 to get rid of him?0 -
My mother reads the Daily Mail. She thinks very poorly of men who abandon their families.HYUFD said:The press may be interested in character and Boris' private life, the Tory membership are interested in Brexit.
On the debates Boris did the BBC debate last month and will do more TV debates head to head with Hunt next month as well as all the husting they are both taking part in across the country
I shall be interested to see how her vote goes.0 -
The 74% Boris got in a few polls before was unlikely to be sustained, I think it is more likely he wins about 60% to 40% for Hunt ie close to the 59% Corbyn got in 2015 and the 61% he got in 2016 against Owen Smith.AlastairMeeks said:
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Boris led Hunt 61% to 39% in a Comres Tory councillors poll at the weekend0 -
Presumably he has to be elected first, but does it have to be a year, or can it be day one?SandyRentool said:
And when Bozo fails to deliver Brexit in October all you will be left with will be a buffoon in Downing Street.HYUFD said:The press may be interested in character and Boris' private life, the Tory membership are interested in Brexit.
On the debates Boris did the BBC debate last month and will do more TV debates head to head with Hunt next month as well as all the husting they are both taking part in across the country
How soon until MPs can send their letters to the 1922 to get rid of him?0 -
IIRC can be done the day he is elected leader.Foxy said:
Presumably he has to be elected first, but does it have to be a year, or can it be day one?SandyRentool said:
And when Bozo fails to deliver Brexit in October all you will be left with will be a buffoon in Downing Street.HYUFD said:The press may be interested in character and Boris' private life, the Tory membership are interested in Brexit.
On the debates Boris did the BBC debate last month and will do more TV debates head to head with Hunt next month as well as all the husting they are both taking part in across the country
How soon until MPs can send their letters to the 1922 to get rid of him?
I reckon the ERG will call a confidence vote in him in late October.0 -
Well, agree. He can. In circumstances which look increasingly unlikely.HYUFD said:
Boris can win a majority and then deliver BrexitSandyRentool said:
And when Bozo fails to deliver Brexit in October all you will be left with will be a buffoon in Downing Street.HYUFD said:The press may be interested in character and Boris' private life, the Tory membership are interested in Brexit.
On the debates Boris did the BBC debate last month and will do more TV debates head to head with Hunt next month as well as all the husting they are both taking part in across the country
How soon until MPs can send their letters to the 1922 to get rid of him?0 -
A second time you’ve seen the analogy with CorbynHYUFD said:
The 74% Boris got in a few polls before was unlikely to be sustained, I think it is more likely he wins about 60% to 40% for Hunt ie close to the 59% Corbyn got in 2015 and the 61% he got in 2016 against Owen Smith.AlastairMeeks said:
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Boris led Hunt 61% to 39% in a Comres Tory councillors poll at the weekend 0 -
It may change if Hunt continues to have a good campaign and Johnson continues to have a bad one - but I grant it is unlikely.AlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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SouthamObserver said:
Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
'Knell!0 -
Boris' are much biggerSquareRoot said:
I seem to recall Mrs May having 20% plus poll leads.. that worked out well..Pulpstar said:
Very rarely that wrong, the polling in the Michigan Democratic primary in 2016 was the last error that would have been sufficient in scale to get Hunt close.SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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When Boris crashes out is it Hunt by default - a la May vs Leadsom ?0
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Since when was now the “final polling”. There are still two weeks before papers are mailed out.HYUFD said:
Not in the final pollingSquareRoot said:
I seem to recall Mrs May having 20% plus poll leads.. that worked out well..Pulpstar said:
Very rarely that wrong, the polling in the Michigan Democratic primary in 2016 was the last error that would have been sufficient in scale to get Hunt close.SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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Well both are more the membership choice than MPsIanB2 said:
A second time you’ve seen the analogy with CorbynHYUFD said:
The 74% Boris got in a few polls before was unlikely to be sustained, I think it is more likely he wins about 60% to 40% for Hunt ie close to the 59% Corbyn got in 2015 and the 61% he got in 2016 against Owen Smith.AlastairMeeks said:
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
Boris led Hunt 61% to 39% in a Comres Tory councillors poll at the weekend0 -
Most members' ballots will then be returned promptly before the final hustings and TV debate and of course David Davis beat Cameron in the 2005 BBC debate but that only just cut Cameron's lead, Cameron still won comfortablyIanB2 said:
Since when was now the “final polling”. There are still two weeks before papers are mailed out.HYUFD said:
Not in the final pollingSquareRoot said:
I seem to recall Mrs May having 20% plus poll leads.. that worked out well..Pulpstar said:
Very rarely that wrong, the polling in the Michigan Democratic primary in 2016 was the last error that would have been sufficient in scale to get Hunt close.SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?AlastairMeeks said:
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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Which isn't the point. There are still two weeks to go. So the current polls are not the final ones, as you implied.HYUFD said:
Most members' ballots will then be returned promptly before the final hustings and TV debate and of course David Davis beat Cameron in the 2005 BBC debate but that only just cut Cameron's lead, Cameron still won comfortablyIanB2 said:
Since when was now the “final polling”. There are still two weeks before papers are mailed out.HYUFD said:
Not in the final pollingSquareRoot said:
I seem to recall Mrs May having 20% plus poll leads.. that worked out well..Pulpstar said:
Very rarely that wrong, the polling in the Michigan Democratic primary in 2016 was the last error that would have been sufficient in scale to get Hunt close.SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=210 -
Today's Boris stooge on R4 is Priti Patel.0
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No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21-1 -
I got my weekly dose of political analysis from my mother over Sunday lunch:Foxy said:
My mother reads the Daily Mail. She thinks very poorly of men who abandon their families.HYUFD said:The press may be interested in character and Boris' private life, the Tory membership are interested in Brexit.
On the debates Boris did the BBC debate last month and will do more TV debates head to head with Hunt next month as well as all the husting they are both taking part in across the country
I shall be interested to see how her vote goes.
"I hope she makes him comb his hair before they do it." Fucking LOL.0 -
My guess would be that it is hard to balance the sample on dimensions that relate to possible sources of bias, not least for lack of information about the demographic balance of the population.isam said:
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?AlastairMeeks said:
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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To be fair on Hunt, he is just pointing out what No Deal Brexit means. At least he understands that there will be instant tariffs and no Implementation period, unlike Johnson, whose mind seems to be on other things.SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
Incidentally, browsing 2 for 1 offers in a Tesco express does seem a little thirsty. Perhaps the Camberwell flat is normally a dry zone.0 -
Yougov called the 2001 Tory membership vote for IDS correctly, Yougov called the 2005 Tory membership vote for Cameron correctly, no reason to doubt them this time either with Boris ahead with YougovIanB2 said:
My guess would be that it is hard to balance the sample on dimensions that relate to possible sources of bias, not least for lack of information about the demographic balance of the population.isam said:
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?AlastairMeeks said:
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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Yep, he will be denounced as a traitor within weeks probably.TheScreamingEagles said:
IIRC can be done the day he is elected leader.Foxy said:
Presumably he has to be elected first, but does it have to be a year, or can it be day one?SandyRentool said:
And when Bozo fails to deliver Brexit in October all you will be left with will be a buffoon in Downing Street.HYUFD said:The press may be interested in character and Boris' private life, the Tory membership are interested in Brexit.
On the debates Boris did the BBC debate last month and will do more TV debates head to head with Hunt next month as well as all the husting they are both taking part in across the country
How soon until MPs can send their letters to the 1922 to get rid of him?
I reckon the ERG will call a confidence vote in him in late October.0 -
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.isam said:
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?AlastairMeeks said:
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=211 -
F1: Ricciardo's received a couple of penalties and his position shifted down to 11th (two 5s penalties for passes on Norris and Raikkonen on the last lap).0
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Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.0 -
Had the polling of party members in past leadership campaigns been inaccurate?AlastairMeeks said:
Whenever you have a subgroup it is harder to ensure that you have a representative sample of that subgroup.isam said:
I would have thought polling of party members was more reliable than that of the public. Why’d you say it is much less?AlastairMeeks said:
This polling would need to be very wrong indeed, with Boris Johnson 74:26 ahead and 80% certain of their decision. Polling of party members is much less reliable than polling of the general public, which isn’t exactly great, but even so...SquareRoot said:
Polling being wrong.. Surely that's impossibleAlastairMeeks said:The polling of Conservative members is going to have to be spectacularly wrong if Jeremy Hunt is going to stand a chance. Or Boris Johnson is going to need to withdraw. Either is possible but neither looks particularly likely.
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The renegotiation is to remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked for not Barnier.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
Boris will also ask to remove the backstop or make it temporary, the EU will refuse so he will let NI decide in a referendum which the EU won't refuse0 -
But will the anti No Dealers get their letters in first?houndtang said:
Yep, he will be denounced as a traitor within weeks probably.TheScreamingEagles said:
IIRC can be done the day he is elected leader.Foxy said:
Presumably he has to be elected first, but does it have to be a year, or can it be day one?SandyRentool said:
And when Bozo fails to deliver Brexit in October all you will be left with will be a buffoon in Downing Street.HYUFD said:The press may be interested in character and Boris' private life, the Tory membership are interested in Brexit.
On the debates Boris did the BBC debate last month and will do more TV debates head to head with Hunt next month as well as all the husting they are both taking part in across the country
How soon until MPs can send their letters to the 1922 to get rid of him?
I reckon the ERG will call a confidence vote in him in late October.0 -
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.Foxy said:
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only0 -
Hunt asking the BBC to arrange a debate in the next fortnight and empty chairing Chicken Bozo if he doesn't turn up.0
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HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
But other than that he's a good bet.1 -
Before Haloween?HYUFD said:
The renegotiation is to remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked for no Barnier.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
Boris will also ask to remove the backstop or make it temporary, the EU will refuse so he will let NI decide in a referendum which the EU won't refuse
This isn't just any unicorn, it is a unicorn that pays golden eggs!0 -
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Barnier would remove the temporary Customs Union for GB in a day as it is part of the future Political Declaration rather than the Withdrawal Agreement itselfFoxy said:
Before Haloween?HYUFD said:
The renegotiation is to remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked for no Barnier.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
Boris will also ask to remove the backstop or make it temporary, the EU will refuse so he will let NI decide in a referendum which the EU won't refuse
This isn't just any unicorn, it is a unicorn that pays golden eggs!0 -
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last weekalex. said:
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
But other than that he's a good bet.0 -
You are aware that the backstop is there to protect Ireland, as well as Northern Ireland. The EU won't abandon the Republic just because the Northern Irish agree to it.HYUFD said:
The renegotiation is to remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked for not Barnier.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
Boris will also ask to remove the backstop or make it temporary, the EU will refuse so he will let NI decide in a referendum which the EU won't refuse0 -
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.HYUFD said:
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.Foxy said:
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably opposed to anything that treats NI differently to the mainland. If you think that a referendum will make MPs fall in line behind the winning position, then I suggest you recap the last few years of British politics.0 -
I’ll wait and see how long it is before one of my brexit supporting drinking partners comes out with this line. Dr Fox has shot the GATT 24 lie down and Hunt has, possibly deliberately warned of the problems of WTO, so they will need a new unicorn to cling to.Foxy said:
Before Haloween?HYUFD said:
The renegotiation is to remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked for no Barnier.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
Boris will also ask to remove the backstop or make it temporary, the EU will refuse so he will let NI decide in a referendum which the EU won't refuse
This isn't just any unicorn, it is a unicorn that pays golden eggs!0 -
Reported where on twitter and by who?HYUFD said:
It is the policy Boris will pursue if he wins as was reported on Twitter last weekalex. said:
HYUFD's support is based entirely on a policy that Johnson hasn't espoused, that is unpursuable without a General Election which he has made no commitment to having, reliant on a majority in that election that the polls give no indication would be forthcoming, on the assumption that the Tory majority in that election would be totally in agreement with the policy that he won't publicly declare, and envisages a timescale that is out of all proportion with reality.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
But other than that he's a good bet.0 -
Times ($): ‘Jeremy Hunt: I would be PM most feared by Nicola Sturgeon’
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-i-would-be-pm-most-feared-by-nicola-sturgeon-qvq9nskc6
That’s true, but it’s nothing to do with his tedious, standard repetition of rejecting Scottish popular sovereignty. It’s much simpler than that: Hunt doesn’t come across as a complete weirdo.
Scots won’t warm to Hunt, but they won’t immediately detest the man from Day 1.0 -
somebody needs to tell Matt Hancock not to use the phrase "Boris has an exciting domestic agenda"IanB2 said:Hunt asking the BBC to arrange a debate in the next fortnight and empty chairing Chicken Bozo if he doesn't turn up.
a bit too exciting according to the neighbours0 -
Saw a snippet of the BBC papers last night. Discussion of the EU with a 'slightly softer' Brexit being described as membership of the customs union.
It's insane that the dichotomy that's developed is between departure not worth doing (customs union) and leaving with no deal at all, when those are practically the two most extreme varieties of leaving and there's a huge spectrum in between.
Combination of May's ill thought out rhetoric, and negotiation, and the unwillingness of MPs to bite the bullet and back something. *sighs*0 -
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Hunt will be the sensible choice we'll wish we'd taken, a la Miliband or Cooper.StuartDickson said:Times ($): ‘Jeremy Hunt: I would be PM most feared by Nicola Sturgeon’
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-i-would-be-pm-most-feared-by-nicola-sturgeon-qvq9nskc6
That’s true, but it’s nothing to do with his tedious, standard repetition of rejecting Scottish popular sovereignty. It’s much simpler than that: Hunt doesn’t come across as a complete weirdo.
Scots won’t warm to Hunt, but they won’t immediately detest the man from Day 1.
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@HYUFD doesn’t power sharing in Northern Ireland mean that majority rule is irrelevant?0
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Hunt has a -27% rating with Panelbase with Scots yesterday and lower positives than Boris even if lower negatives tooStuartDickson said:Times ($): ‘Jeremy Hunt: I would be PM most feared by Nicola Sturgeon’
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-i-would-be-pm-most-feared-by-nicola-sturgeon-qvq9nskc6
That’s true, but it’s nothing to do with his tedious, standard repetition of rejecting Scottish popular sovereignty. It’s much simpler than that: Hunt doesn’t come across as a complete weirdo.
Scots won’t warm to Hunt, but they won’t immediately detest the man from Day 1.0 -
Was a tweet by Ceremy Jorbyn from Islington.alex. said:Reported where on twitter and by who?
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Or maybe we'll be like an England batting unit from the 90s.HYUFD said:0 -
The polling shows quite clearly most Northern Irish voters will back the backstop to avoid a hard border.alex. said:
You are aware that the backstop is there to protect Ireland, as well as Northern Ireland. The EU won't abandon the Republic just because the Northern Irish agree to it.HYUFD said:
The renegotiation is to remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked for not Barnier.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
Boris will also ask to remove the backstop or make it temporary, the EU will refuse so he will let NI decide in a referendum which the EU won't refuse
However if they don't and Varadkar and the EU want to enforce a hard border so be it0 -
Tories see no Ireland, hear no Ireland and speak no Ireland.alex. said:
You are aware that the backstop is there to protect Ireland, as well as Northern Ireland. The EU won't abandon the Republic just because the Northern Irish agree to it.HYUFD said:
The renegotiation is to remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked for not Barnier.nichomar said:
Where does he get a GB FTA from before Oct 31st? There is no renegotiation and nobody to negotiate it with.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
Boris will also ask to remove the backstop or make it temporary, the EU will refuse so he will let NI decide in a referendum which the EU won't refuse1 -
The irony is that for those that want Brexit, it is clear to anyone that understands principles of leadership that Hunt stands a much higher chance of achieving Brexit than Johnson.
Johnson has no managerial skills, no diplomatic skills and is lazier than David Davis. "Oh but he has charisma, and believes in Brexit" says HYUFD with blind loyalty. The latter is highly unlikely and the former is largely irrelevant if he has none of the other skills. If you want Brexit to die a death, vote Boris. Hmm, maybe I should just abstain!2 -
A Tory majority after a general election removes the need for DUP supportEl_Capitano said:
There is no “Tory majority” in the current Parliament.HYUFD said:
The Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit can pass before 1st November with a Tory majority and temporary Customs Union for GB removed certainly.Foxy said:
Can that all be done before 1_Nov, with the legislation passing both Brussels and Westminster, or do you see an extension.HYUFD said:
No, I back a GB FTA and referendum in NI on the backstop, hence I am voting Boris!nichomar said:
Mr HY do you agree with Hunt?SouthamObserver said:Brexit bonus...
https://twitter.com/solamiga/status/1142913019661471744?s=21
A General Election would consume half that time even in the unlikely event of a Conservative victory.
There may be a short extension for a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop only
They are supported by the DUP who are implacably opposed to anything that treats NI differently to the mainland. If you think that a referendum will make MPs fall in line behind the winning position, then I suggest you recap the last few years of British politics.0 -
Oh. Thought it was something interesting... like parking tickets...SquareRoot said:0 -
The constant supply of food and other resources from the United States had nothing to do with it of course.HYUFD said:0 -
Priti Patel on R4 showing that either she is a moron or she believes her audience are morons.
Sensible Boris tactic that said - dissemble and bluster until it's all over. Definite shades of TMay's 2017 campaign. We shall see if it's successful this time round.0
