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SystemSystem Posts: 12,632
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The voters are beginning to see that Boris Johnson is not the Messiah but a very naughty boy

Polling June 19-20 included Conservative leadership head to heads featuring Boris Johnson vs Jeremy Hunt. This was repeated in another poll conducted today, between 1pm and 5pm. pic.twitter.com/8yRWHVRVFL

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,102
    First like Boris.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited June 2019
    First(ish)! Like Boris....currently.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Another MoS story:

    A Boris Johnson government could be toppled on his very first day in Downing Street, senior Tory figures have warned.

    If the former London Mayor wins the leadership contest, No 10 expects Jeremy Corbyn to call an immediate no-confidence vote in the Commons in an effort to bring down his embryonic administration.

    Conservative Party chairman Brandon Lewis and members of the backbench 1922 Committee are understood to have expressed the fear that Mr Johnson would lose the vote, given that the party has a working majority of just four MPs and remains hopelessly split over Brexit.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7171075/Senior-Tories-fear-Boris-ousted-day-Downing-Street.html
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Johnson confirmed yesterday that he is the best friend the bankers who caused the 2008 crash ever had and that he doesn’t understand the WA May negotiated. Once he becomes Tory leader both are going to cause him significant problems.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited June 2019
    CarlottaVance said:

    Another MoS story:

    A Boris Johnson government could be toppled on his very first day in Downing Street, senior Tory figures have warned.

    If the former London Mayor wins the leadership contest, No 10 expects Jeremy Corbyn to call an immediate no-confidence vote in the Commons in an effort to bring down his embryonic administration.

    Conservative Party chairman Brandon Lewis and members of the backbench 1922 Committee are understood to have expressed the fear that Mr Johnson would lose the vote, given that the party has a working majority of just four MPs and remains hopelessly split over Brexit.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7171075/Senior-Tories-fear-Boris-ousted-day-Downing-Street.html

    And there you have it.

    Which is why it's possible Boris Johnson might win the tory leadership and not be Prime Minister. Or not for more than a few days.

    What I'm not clear about is the timing viz a viz Parliament. Isn't the leadership result going to be made after the recess on July 20th? In which case Corbyn can't table a Vote of No Confidence before September. I don't really understand how Labour can be signalling a 3-line whip on July 25th, after Parliament has recessed?!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,872
    Do any of us know how the DUP feel about giving their support to this reprobate lump of lard? I wonder how many trinkets their support is going to cost this time?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    CarlottaVance said:

    Another MoS story:

    A Boris Johnson government could be toppled on his very first day in Downing Street, senior Tory figures have warned.

    If the former London Mayor wins the leadership contest, No 10 expects Jeremy Corbyn to call an immediate no-confidence vote in the Commons in an effort to bring down his embryonic administration.

    Conservative Party chairman Brandon Lewis and members of the backbench 1922 Committee are understood to have expressed the fear that Mr Johnson would lose the vote, given that the party has a working majority of just four MPs and remains hopelessly split over Brexit.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7171075/Senior-Tories-fear-Boris-ousted-day-Downing-Street.html

    He won’t lose a VONC until he confirms he’s going to pursue No Deal. And he won’t do that.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,872
    OT I was at the Portsoy boat festival in Scotland yesterday and visited the Conservative stall. To say they looked less than chipper would be an understatement though I understand they have issues of their own which might have contributed.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,872
    SouthamObserver said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Another MoS story:

    A Boris Johnson government could be toppled on his very first day in Downing Street, senior Tory figures have warned.

    If the former London Mayor wins the leadership contest, No 10 expects Jeremy Corbyn to call an immediate no-confidence vote in the Commons in an effort to bring down his embryonic administration.

    Conservative Party chairman Brandon Lewis and members of the backbench 1922 Committee are understood to have expressed the fear that Mr Johnson would lose the vote, given that the party has a working majority of just four MPs and remains hopelessly split over Brexit.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7171075/Senior-Tories-fear-Boris-ousted-day-Downing-Street.html

    He won’t lose a VONC until he confirms he’s going to pursue No Deal. And he won’t do that.

    More to the point unless Boris continues to soil himself I doubt Corbyn would win that election. Even Boris is likely to have a honeymoon albeit a short one.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,361
    FPT RCS, agreed. It's the fact of Brexit that matters, not the manner of it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Good article in The Economist:

    Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.

    https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/06/20/how-brexit-made-britain-a-country-of-remainers-and-leavers?fsrc=scn/tw/te/rfd/pe
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,841
    CarlottaVance said:

    Another MoS story:

    A Boris Johnson government could be toppled on his very first day in Downing Street, senior Tory figures have warned.

    If the former London Mayor wins the leadership contest, No 10 expects Jeremy Corbyn to call an immediate no-confidence vote in the Commons in an effort to bring down his embryonic administration.

    Conservative Party chairman Brandon Lewis and members of the backbench 1922 Committee are understood to have expressed the fear that Mr Johnson would lose the vote, given that the party has a working majority of just four MPs and remains hopelessly split over Brexit.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7171075/Senior-Tories-fear-Boris-ousted-day-Downing-Street.html

    I don't see why that proposal should only apply if Mr B Johnson wins. It isn't as though electing Mr Hunt will resolve that hopeless split.

    Good morning, everyone.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,830
    Good morning, everyone.

    Hope Hunt wins but it's very much an outside chance.

    F1: will peruse and ramble and so forth.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,872
    CarlottaVance said:

    Another MoS story:

    A Boris Johnson government could be toppled on his very first day in Downing Street, senior Tory figures have warned.

    If the former London Mayor wins the leadership contest, No 10 expects Jeremy Corbyn to call an immediate no-confidence vote in the Commons in an effort to bring down his embryonic administration.

    Conservative Party chairman Brandon Lewis and members of the backbench 1922 Committee are understood to have expressed the fear that Mr Johnson would lose the vote, given that the party has a working majority of just four MPs and remains hopelessly split over Brexit.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7171075/Senior-Tories-fear-Boris-ousted-day-Downing-Street.html

    If anyone doubts Boris Johnson will be the next Tory leader read the posts underneath this MOS article.They are Brexit obsessives. Anyone not 100% of the faith is a heretic. For all Scotland's faults (they don't have a night time here!) I can understand why they want out. The Brexit cult around Boris are stark staring bonkers
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    76/24...what word comes above landslide?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    edited June 2019
    Artist said:

    76/24...what word comes above landslide?

    Earthquake, avalanche
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    So, is Johnson genuinely ignorant enough to believe this or is he just taking Tory members for fools? It has to be one or the other.
    https://twitter.com/backboris2019/status/1142505827452051463?s=21
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,872
    CarlottaVance said:

    Good article in The Economist:

    Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.

    https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/06/20/how-brexit-made-britain-a-country-of-remainers-and-leavers?fsrc=scn/tw/te/rfd/pe

    That doesn't make 'Leavers' more tolerant people. Being a Leaver in itself shows you to be intolerant and almost certainly a xenophobe. Of course Remainers wouldn't want their nearest and dearest to hook up with an inward looking xenophobe who is more than likely a racist to boot
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    AnneJGP said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Another MoS story:

    A Boris Johnson government could be toppled on his very first day in Downing Street, senior Tory figures have warned.

    If the former London Mayor wins the leadership contest, No 10 expects Jeremy Corbyn to call an immediate no-confidence vote in the Commons in an effort to bring down his embryonic administration.

    Conservative Party chairman Brandon Lewis and members of the backbench 1922 Committee are understood to have expressed the fear that Mr Johnson would lose the vote, given that the party has a working majority of just four MPs and remains hopelessly split over Brexit.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7171075/Senior-Tories-fear-Boris-ousted-day-Downing-Street.html

    I don't see why that proposal should only apply if Mr B Johnson wins. It isn't as though electing Mr Hunt will resolve that hopeless split.
    No. But why are the MoS presenting it that way?

    Perhaps because they don't have MPs on the record saying they could never support a Hunt Premiership?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,617
    edited June 2019
    CarlottaVance said:

    Good article in The Economist:

    Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.

    https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/06/20/how-brexit-made-britain-a-country-of-remainers-and-leavers?fsrc=scn/tw/te/rfd/pe

    In the context of the whole article being about the cultural divide that is replacing class as the driver of our politics, I thought this was an interesting observation:

    ”Jeremy Corbyn, its leader, is so obviously a cultural liberal—with his allotment, vegetarianism and endless pledges of “solidarity” with oppressed people—that the tribe may forgive his feebleness on Brexit. ”

    Flagging a potential problem for Boris in leading his army of pensioners and poorer social conservatives - Boris is so obviously not a cultural conservative, however many times he slips in a bit of anti-Muslim rhetoric.

    Talking of Muslims, that is the other under-analysed feature of our politics. The Muslim community is extraordinarily loyal to Labour - whose cultural openness is more welcoming than the anti-Islamic tendencies on the right - yet this is the most culturally conservative constituency of all, certainly for middle aged and older people.

    And, in bad news for those that want Brexit to go away, the Economist observes: ”being outside the club means endlessly talking about your relationship with it, as Switzerland has found”
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,841
    CarlottaVance said:

    AnneJGP said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Another MoS story:

    A Boris Johnson government could be toppled on his very first day in Downing Street, senior Tory figures have warned.

    If the former London Mayor wins the leadership contest, No 10 expects Jeremy Corbyn to call an immediate no-confidence vote in the Commons in an effort to bring down his embryonic administration.

    Conservative Party chairman Brandon Lewis and members of the backbench 1922 Committee are understood to have expressed the fear that Mr Johnson would lose the vote, given that the party has a working majority of just four MPs and remains hopelessly split over Brexit.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7171075/Senior-Tories-fear-Boris-ousted-day-Downing-Street.html

    I don't see why that proposal should only apply if Mr B Johnson wins. It isn't as though electing Mr Hunt will resolve that hopeless split.
    No. But why are the MoS presenting it that way?

    Perhaps because they don't have MPs on the record saying they could never support a Hunt Premiership?
    That mat well be so. Interesting preference, though, that enough Conservative MPs are so against backing him that they'd put Mr Corbyn in Downing Street.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    We learned once again from those Birmingham hustings why Johnson avoids scrutiny at every opportunity.

    There now follows a party political broadcast on behalf of the Labour Party ...
    https://twitter.com/ofocbrexit/status/1142492050119692290?s=21
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,361
    CarlottaVance said:

    Good article in The Economist:

    Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.

    https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/06/20/how-brexit-made-britain-a-country-of-remainers-and-leavers?fsrc=scn/tw/te/rfd/pe

    It's a very interesting article. The distribution of support for Leave and Remain means the former are likely to be acquainted with people who voted Remain, the latter less so with people who voted Leave. If say, you were a student living in inner London, it's most unlikely you would know anyone who voted Leave.

    Also, if an election were to turn purely on Remain/Leave, FPTP gives a big advantage to the side whose support is less concentrated.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,361
    Roger said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Good article in The Economist:

    Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.

    https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/06/20/how-brexit-made-britain-a-country-of-remainers-and-leavers?fsrc=scn/tw/te/rfd/pe

    That doesn't make 'Leavers' more tolerant people. Being a Leaver in itself shows you to be intolerant and almost certainly a xenophobe. Of course Remainers wouldn't want their nearest and dearest to hook up with an inward looking xenophobe who is more than likely a racist to boot
    " I thank thee, Lord, that I am not as other men....."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,617
    Sean_F said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Good article in The Economist:

    Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.

    https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/06/20/how-brexit-made-britain-a-country-of-remainers-and-leavers?fsrc=scn/tw/te/rfd/pe

    It's a very interesting article. The distribution of support for Leave and Remain means the former are likely to be acquainted with people who voted Remain, the latter less so with people who voted Leave. If say, you were a student living in inner London, it's most unlikely you would know anyone who voted Leave.

    Also, if an election were to turn purely on Remain/Leave, FPTP gives a big advantage to the side whose support is less concentrated.
    The FPTP effects are more complicated than that. Most obviously, there are several parties vying to represent each side of the cultural divide.

    Which is of course why the Tory wet dream (cf. pretty much every post from HY) is that the BXP somehow disappears and the Tories mop up the culturally conservative support.

    Problems being the inherent nature of Brexit itself means that the BXP ultras can never be bought off, and that many of the cultural conservatives are poor and working class and the Tories are still advancing an economic offer aimed at the better off.

    For the LibDems, there is an opportunity of building a deeper constituency amongst the concentration of socially liberal voters - overcoming the historic problem of a dispersed base,
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2019
    BREAKING GLASS NEWS **** BREAKING GLASS NEWS **** BREAKING GLASS NEWS

    "Boris And Carrie In Quiet Overnight Shocker."

    The Metropolitan Police were called to a south London address overnight as neighbours became increasingly concerned that a blonde obese middle aged man and his young girlfriend hadn't been heard of for several hours.

    Neighbour Ms Tamara Hunt-Marx, a 46 year old "Hedgehog Diversity Officer" for Camden Council, told "The Morning Star" from the drawing room of her £700,000 flat :

    "I'm outraged. How could this couple be so selfish. I spent the whole evening with a glass pressed to the party wall and not a dicky bird. I'll have to make an appointment in the morning with my Harley Street specialist to determine whether the sound of silence and the nasty welt on my right ear have left any permanent damage."

    However a bystander, a noted author attending an all day drink and drug fuelled party, who wished to remain anonymous but who we can disclose is Sean Byronic said :

    "Look F*ckwits what this pair of entitled tossers do in the privacy of their converted dungeon bedroom ain't any of my sodding business. That said earlier on today I thought I saw Boris bundled into a blacked out Range Rover in a padded suit and with his mouth taped over. I caught the reg number though - GAV 1 ..... Now piss off ....."
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Good article in The Economist:

    Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.

    https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/06/20/how-brexit-made-britain-a-country-of-remainers-and-leavers?fsrc=scn/tw/te/rfd/pe

    It's a very interesting article. The distribution of support for Leave and Remain means the former are likely to be acquainted with people who voted Remain, the latter less so with people who voted Leave. If say, you were a student living in inner London, it's most unlikely you would know anyone who voted Leave.

    Also, if an election were to turn purely on Remain/Leave, FPTP gives a big advantage to the side whose support is less concentrated.
    The FPTP effects are more complicated than that. Most obviously, there are several parties vying to represent each side of the cultural divide.

    Which is of course why the Tory wet dream (cf. pretty much every post from HY) is that the BXP somehow disappears and the Tories mop up the culturally conservative support.

    Problems being the inherent nature of Brexit itself means that the BXP ultras can never be bought off, and that many of the cultural conservatives are poor and working class and the Tories are still advancing an economic offer aimed at the better off.

    For the LibDems, there is an opportunity of building a deeper constituency amongst the concentration of socially liberal voters - overcoming the historic problem of a dispersed base,

    Indeed, as Boris said yesterday - no-one has been a better friend to the bankers who caused the 2008 crash than he has. That may not be a message that resonates in a lot of Leave-voting areas.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Roger said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Another MoS story:

    A Boris Johnson government could be toppled on his very first day in Downing Street, senior Tory figures have warned.

    If the former London Mayor wins the leadership contest, No 10 expects Jeremy Corbyn to call an immediate no-confidence vote in the Commons in an effort to bring down his embryonic administration.

    Conservative Party chairman Brandon Lewis and members of the backbench 1922 Committee are understood to have expressed the fear that Mr Johnson would lose the vote, given that the party has a working majority of just four MPs and remains hopelessly split over Brexit.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7171075/Senior-Tories-fear-Boris-ousted-day-Downing-Street.html

    If anyone doubts Boris Johnson will be the next Tory leader read the posts underneath this MOS article.They are Brexit obsessives. Anyone not 100% of the faith is a heretic. For all Scotland's faults (they don't have a night time here!) I can understand why they want out. The Brexit cult around Boris are stark staring bonkers
    The Union is a cult, but the suspension of disbelief required for the maintenance of any cult is slowing lifting. Brexit, which also displays cult-like characteristics (“anyone not 100% of the faith is a heretic”), is accelerating the process.

    - "when we are frightened, we don't simply run away from the fear, but run to a safe haven, 'to someone…'—and that someone is usually a person to whom we feel attached. But when the supposed safe haven is also the source of the fear, then running to that person is a failing strategy, causing the frightened person to freeze, trapped between approach and avoidance."

    https://www.google.se/amp/s/bigthink.com/four-cult-recruitment-techniques-2614616148.amp.html
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,872
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Good article in The Economist:

    Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.

    https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/06/20/how-brexit-made-britain-a-country-of-remainers-and-leavers?fsrc=scn/tw/te/rfd/pe

    That doesn't make 'Leavers' more tolerant people. Being a Leaver in itself shows you to be intolerant and almost certainly a xenophobe. Of course Remainers wouldn't want their nearest and dearest to hook up with an inward looking xenophobe who is more than likely a racist to boot
    " I thank thee, Lord, that I am not as other men....."
    Call me old fashioned but if a close relative met someone who believed in corporal punishment capital punishment castration for sex offenders and didn't like foreigners I would not be first in the queue to go on holiday with them.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Roger said:

    OT I was at the Portsoy boat festival in Scotland yesterday and visited the Conservative stall. To say they looked less than chipper would be an understatement though I understand they have issues of their own which might have contributed.

    Since you're in Bonny Scotland this tour de force of different accents may help.....or not......

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1142498652289740803
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,617
    SouthamObserver said:

    We learned once again from those Birmingham hustings why Johnson avoids scrutiny at every opportunity.

    There now follows a party political broadcast on behalf of the Labour Party ...
    https://twitter.com/ofocbrexit/status/1142492050119692290?s=21

    That’s a clip we’ll be seeing again.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    SouthamObserver said:

    So, is Johnson genuinely ignorant enough to believe this or is he just taking Tory members for fools? It has to be one or the other.
    https://twitter.com/backboris2019/status/1142505827452051463?s=21

    If he believes it he is dangerous, if he is taking members for fools, well they all know that no deal means we leave on WTO rules taking advantage of GATT 24 so no problem as they must practice it in the mirror each morning before going out.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,361
    IanB2 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Good article in The Economist:

    Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.

    https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/06/20/how-brexit-made-britain-a-country-of-remainers-and-leavers?fsrc=scn/tw/te/rfd/pe

    In the context of the whole article being about the cultural divide that is replacing class as the driver of our politics, I thought this was an interesting observation:

    ”Jeremy Corbyn, its leader, is so obviously a cultural liberal—with his allotment, vegetarianism and endless pledges of “solidarity” with oppressed people—that the tribe may forgive his feebleness on Brexit. ”

    Flagging a potential problem for Boris in leading his army of pensioners and poorer social conservatives - Boris is so obviously not a cultural conservative, however many times he slips in a bit of anti-Muslim rhetoric.

    Talking of Muslims, that is the other under-analysed feature of our politics. The Muslim community is extraordinarily loyal to Labour - whose cultural openness is more welcoming than the anti-Islamic tendencies on the right - yet this is the most culturally conservative constituency of all, certainly for middle aged and older people.

    And, in bad news for those that want Brexit to go away, the Economist observes: ”being outside the club means endlessly talking about your relationship with it, as Switzerland has found”
    I think there 's a widespread sense among British Muslims that the government and security forces pick on them unfairly over terrorism, which added to issues like immigration and Israel/Palestine, makes them loyal left wing voters.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,361
    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Good article in The Economist:

    Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.

    https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/06/20/how-brexit-made-britain-a-country-of-remainers-and-leavers?fsrc=scn/tw/te/rfd/pe

    That doesn't make 'Leavers' more tolerant people. Being a Leaver in itself shows you to be intolerant and almost certainly a xenophobe. Of course Remainers wouldn't want their nearest and dearest to hook up with an inward looking xenophobe who is more than likely a racist to boot
    " I thank thee, Lord, that I am not as other men....."
    Call me old fashioned but if a close relative met someone who believed in corporal punishment capital punishment castration for sex offenders and didn't like foreigners I would not be first in the queue to go on holiday with them.
    What if they were good company?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,617
    nichomar said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So, is Johnson genuinely ignorant enough to believe this or is he just taking Tory members for fools? It has to be one or the other.
    https://twitter.com/backboris2019/status/1142505827452051463?s=21

    If he believes it he is dangerous, if he is taking members for fools, well they all know that no deal means we leave on WTO rules taking advantage of GATT 24 so no problem as they must practice it in the mirror each morning before going out.
    We have free trade with the EU now. We’d also have it, temporarily at least, under the WA. What is remarkable is how many Tories seem to think they can throw away free trade with a no deal exit, refuse to pay the £39bn, and then somehow the EU is going to hand us free trade on a plate with no strings thereafter.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Good article in The Economist:

    Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.

    https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/06/20/how-brexit-made-britain-a-country-of-remainers-and-leavers?fsrc=scn/tw/te/rfd/pe

    That doesn't make 'Leavers' more tolerant people. Being a Leaver in itself shows you to be intolerant and almost certainly a xenophobe. Of course Remainers wouldn't want their nearest and dearest to hook up with an inward looking xenophobe who is more than likely a racist to boot
    " I thank thee, Lord, that I am not as other men....."
    Since Roger is in Scotland:

    “O, wad some Power the giftie gie us
    To see oursels as others see us!
    It wad frae monie a blunder free us,
    An' foolish notion.”
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,617
    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Roger said:

    Call me old fashioned but if a close relative met someone who believed in corporal punishment capital punishment castration for sex offenders and didn't like foreigners I would not be first in the queue to go on holiday with them.

    You've had quite enough of corporal punishment in your bedroom then Roger ?? .... :wink:
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,830
    F1: ha. Don't really like any bets. Hmm.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    SouthamObserver said:

    We learned once again from those Birmingham hustings why Johnson avoids scrutiny at every opportunity.

    There now follows a party political broadcast on behalf of the Labour Party ...
    https://twitter.com/ofocbrexit/status/1142492050119692290?s=21

    That’s hardly a PPB for the Labour Party when it was your very own Gordon Brown who gleefully saved the bankers.

    But rest-assured that the SNP will be using this Boris quote. Boris is quite simply a gift that keeps on giving. Ruth is in despair.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    The LibDems have three months to make a demonstrable breakthrough. If they don’t, millions of us are going to have the Sophie’s Choice of Corbyn or Johnson. I spent years hoping to live in a Labour/Tory marginal so my vote would count. Now I wish I didn’t!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,617
    SouthamObserver said:

    The LibDems have three months to make a demonstrable breakthrough. If they don’t, millions of us are going to have the Sophie’s Choice of Corbyn or Johnson. I spent years hoping to live in a Labour/Tory marginal so my vote would count. Now I wish I didn’t!

    All political timetables now run to October.

    At least their leadership election has come at the right time.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    Nailed on, then?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,830
    Mr. Observer, Boris isn't fit to be PM. Yet I'd still rather have a self-absorbed idiot than someone who is also a self-absorbed idiot and has the likes of McDonnell lurking about muttering things about making it so Coalition MPs can't go out in public, and describing rioters as the best of their movement.

    It's also a lot easier to remove a Conservative leader than it is to get rid of a Labour one.

    But it would be nice if we had a major party that wasn't led by an imbecile.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,617
    StuartDickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    We learned once again from those Birmingham hustings why Johnson avoids scrutiny at every opportunity.

    There now follows a party political broadcast on behalf of the Labour Party ...
    https://twitter.com/ofocbrexit/status/1142492050119692290?s=21

    That’s hardly a PPB for the Labour Party when it was your very own Gordon Brown who gleefully saved the bankers.

    But rest-assured that the SNP will be using this Boris quote. Boris is quite simply a gift that keeps on giving. Ruth is in despair.
    Classic Boris - so enthused with his own intellect and oratory that he lets his mouth run wherever his imagination takes it, without interjecting any judgement.

    Any other politician who started off down a train of thought which ends with “I am the biggest banker of them all” would have considered how it might play with the wider electorate before the hole got too deep.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,830
    Attempted coup in Ethiopia: https://twitter.com/incunabula/status/1142668018935357441
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,494
    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    So a good chance of it happening?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,494
    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So, is Johnson genuinely ignorant enough to believe this or is he just taking Tory members for fools? It has to be one or the other.
    https://twitter.com/backboris2019/status/1142505827452051463?s=21

    If he believes it he is dangerous, if he is taking members for fools, well they all know that no deal means we leave on WTO rules taking advantage of GATT 24 so no problem as they must practice it in the mirror each morning before going out.
    We have free trade with the EU now. We’d also have it, temporarily at least, under the WA. What is remarkable is how many Tories seem to think they can throw away free trade with a no deal exit, refuse to pay the £39bn, and then somehow the EU is going to hand us free trade on a plate with no strings thereafter.
    You've left out seriously disadvantaging a member state! Looking at the statements and attitudes of those at the top of the EU I have little doubt that they would move to protect Ireland if necessary.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    This is quite funny.

    https://twitter.com/peoplesmomentum/status/1140959847958999040?s=21
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,617
    edited June 2019
    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    So a good chance of it happening?
    Except for the willingness of his troops to go over the top so soon.

    And that Boris is demonstrating his timidity and caution (indeed cowardly tendencies) to get elected, yet some Tories seem to think the minute he gets the job he just has to nip into that telephone box and re-emerge as superman.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Wondering what Gove is planning.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    JackW said:

    BREAKING GLASS NEWS **** BREAKING GLASS NEWS **** BREAKING GLASS NEWS

    "Boris And Carrie In Quiet Overnight Shocker."

    The Metropolitan Police were called to a south London address overnight as neighbours became increasingly concerned that a blonde obese middle aged man and his young girlfriend hadn't been heard of for several hours.

    Neighbour Ms Tamara Hunt-Marx, a 46 year old "Hedgehog Diversity Officer" for Camden Council, told "The Morning Star" from the drawing room of her £700,000 flat :

    "I'm outraged. How could this couple be so selfish. I spent the whole evening with a glass pressed to the party wall and not a dicky bird. I'll have to make an appointment in the morning with my Harley Street specialist to determine whether the sound of silence and the nasty welt on my right ear have left any permanent damage."

    However a bystander, a noted author attending an all day drink and drug fuelled party, who wished to remain anonymous but who we can disclose is Sean Byronic said :

    "Look F*ckwits what this pair of entitled tossers do in the privacy of their converted dungeon bedroom ain't any of my sodding business. That said earlier on today I thought I saw Boris bundled into a blacked out Range Rover in a padded suit and with his mouth taped over. I caught the reg number though - GAV 1 ..... Now piss off ....."

    😂
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,636
    SouthamObserver said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Good article in The Economist:

    Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.

    https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/06/20/how-brexit-made-britain-a-country-of-remainers-and-leavers?fsrc=scn/tw/te/rfd/pe

    It's a very interesting article. The distribution of support for Leave and Remain means the former are likely to be acquainted with people who voted Remain, the latter less so with people who voted Leave. If say, you were a student living in inner London, it's most unlikely you would know anyone who voted Leave.

    Also, if an election were to turn purely on Remain/Leave, FPTP gives a big advantage to the side whose support is less concentrated.
    The FPTP effects are more complicated than that. Most obviously, there are several parties vying to represent each side of the cultural divide.

    Which is of course why the Tory wet dream (cf. pretty much every post from HY) is that the BXP somehow disappears and the Tories mop up the culturally conservative support.

    Problems being the inherent nature of Brexit itself means that the BXP ultras can never be bought off, and that many of the cultural conservatives are poor and working class and the Tories are still advancing an economic offer aimed at the better off.

    For the LibDems, there is an opportunity of building a deeper constituency amongst the concentration of socially liberal voters - overcoming the historic problem of a dispersed base,

    Indeed, as Boris said yesterday - no-one has been a better friend to the bankers who caused the 2008 crash than he has. That may not be a message that resonates in a lot of Leave-voting areas.

    UKIP voting is strongest in areas worst hit by austerity, yet UKIP voters were the most likely to say that austerity did not go far enough:

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1142049815859257346?s=19

    A very interesting twitter thread, and the book sounds worth a look.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,636
    edited June 2019
    SouthamObserver said:

    So, is Johnson genuinely ignorant enough to believe this or is he just taking Tory members for fools? It has to be one or the other.
    https://twitter.com/backboris2019/status/1142505827452051463?s=21

    He doesn't really understand that no Withdrawal Agreement means no Implementation period or FTA does he?

    How did someone so stupid manage to get an Oxford degree?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    This is completely untrue

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9305606/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-election/

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1143889/general-election-UK-boris-johnson-news-tory-leadership-race-nigel-farage-brexit-party

    General Election alert: Boris Johnson planning early election as Tories demand Farage deal

    BORIS JOHNSON could call an early election if he becomes Prime Minister, it has emerged, after a shock poll suggested almost two-thirds of Conservative members would welcome a coalition with the Brexit Party.

    At the moment he can't admit this might have to be prior to Brexit but he soon will when it's obvious Brexit won't be delivered on Oct 31st. It will be a Brexit or bust election.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Mysticrose said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Another MoS story:

    .


    What I'm not clear about is the timing viz a viz Parliament. Isn't the leadership result going to be made after the recess on July 20th? In which case Corbyn can't table a Vote of No Confidence before September. I don't really understand how Labour can be signalling a 3-line whip on July 25th, after Parliament has recessed?!

    Can someone help me on this? How is a Vote of No Confidence supposed to be tabled on July 25th when they all broke up for their holidays 5 days earlier?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    With regards to a VONC, it's not simply a question of waiting to see if Johnson goes for No Deal.

    He is a deeply divisive figure and widely disliked in the parliamentary party. Remember, that despite 5 rounds of voting and several options, nearly half of his MPs still refused to support his leadership.

    I predict that half a dozen tory MPs will not support his premiership.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,636
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Attempted coup in Ethiopia: https://twitter.com/incunabula/status/1142668018935357441

    Very worrying, the political reforms that PM Abiy has brought in are very daring and democratic. Peace with Eritrea too.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Observer, Boris isn't fit to be PM. Yet I'd still rather have a self-absorbed idiot than someone who is also a self-absorbed idiot and has the likes of McDonnell lurking about muttering things about making it so Coalition MPs can't go out in public, and describing rioters as the best of their movement.

    It's also a lot easier to remove a Conservative leader than it is to get rid of a Labour one.

    But it would be nice if we had a major party that wasn't led by an imbecile.

    Bannon and his white supremacism comes with Johnson. I see the next Tory leader and Corbyn as direct equivalents.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,830
    Betting Post

    F1: pre-race tosh:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/06/france-pre-race-2019_23.html

    Found it hard to come up with anything, so backed Albon and Raikkonen (11th and 12th) to get points at 2.2 and 2.25 respectively, splitting one stake between them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,830
    Dr. Foxy, indeed, we could do with rather more stability and peace around the Horn of Africa.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,807
    Mysticrose said:

    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    This is completely untrue

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9305606/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-election/

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1143889/general-election-UK-boris-johnson-news-tory-leadership-race-nigel-farage-brexit-party

    General Election alert: Boris Johnson planning early election as Tories demand Farage deal

    BORIS JOHNSON could call an early election if he becomes Prime Minister, it has emerged, after a shock poll suggested almost two-thirds of Conservative members would welcome a coalition with the Brexit Party.

    At the moment he can't admit this might have to be prior to Brexit but he soon will when it's obvious Brexit won't be delivered on Oct 31st. It will be a Brexit or bust election.
    The joy of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act means that he can’t just “call an election” without the consent of his own MPs and some others. This piece of legislation has now been in place for 8 years and people still don’t get that a PM can no longer just rock up to the Palace and request a dissolution.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,872
    edited June 2019
    edit
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    edited June 2019
    StuartDickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    We learned once again from those Birmingham hustings why Johnson avoids scrutiny at every opportunity.

    There now follows a party political broadcast on behalf of the Labour Party ...
    https://twitter.com/ofocbrexit/status/1142492050119692290?s=21

    That’s hardly a PPB for the Labour Party when it was your very own Gordon Brown who gleefully saved the bankers.

    But rest-assured that the SNP will be using this Boris quote. Boris is quite simply a gift that keeps on giving. Ruth is in despair.

    Saving the bankers came with saving the banks. That was absolutely necessary and is not the same thing as being their friends. However, putting that aside I think you'll struggle to argue that the Labour party now is led by the same kind of people who were leading it in 2008. Totally agree on Johnson and Scotland. The right-wing English nationalism he has embraced at the behest of Bannon and the utter uselessness of Scottish Labour are both gifts to the SNP. I suspect the LibDems may also benefit.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,872
    JackW said:

    Roger said:

    Call me old fashioned but if a close relative met someone who believed in corporal punishment capital punishment castration for sex offenders and didn't like foreigners I would not be first in the queue to go on holiday with them.

    You've had quite enough of corporal punishment in your bedroom then Roger ?? .... :wink:
    Are you confusing me with the other blond bombshell?
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    DougSeal said:

    Mysticrose said:

    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    This is completely untrue

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9305606/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-election/

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1143889/general-election-UK-boris-johnson-news-tory-leadership-race-nigel-farage-brexit-party

    General Election alert: Boris Johnson planning early election as Tories demand Farage deal

    BORIS JOHNSON could call an early election if he becomes Prime Minister, it has emerged, after a shock poll suggested almost two-thirds of Conservative members would welcome a coalition with the Brexit Party.

    At the moment he can't admit this might have to be prior to Brexit but he soon will when it's obvious Brexit won't be delivered on Oct 31st. It will be a Brexit or bust election.
    The joy of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act means that he can’t just “call an election” without the consent of his own MPs and some others. This piece of legislation has now been in place for 8 years and people still don’t get that a PM can no longer just rock up to the Palace and request a dissolution.
    Determination will see him succeed...so we are told.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,872
    CarlottaVance said:

    Roger said:

    OT I was at the Portsoy boat festival in Scotland yesterday and visited the Conservative stall. To say they looked less than chipper would be an understatement though I understand they have issues of their own which might have contributed.

    Since you're in Bonny Scotland this tour de force of different accents may help.....or not......

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1142498652289740803
    I love the sound but I'd need subtitles! I'll show it to my hosts when they get up.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Mysticrose said:

    With regards to a VONC, it's not simply a question of waiting to see if Johnson goes for No Deal.

    He is a deeply divisive figure and widely disliked in the parliamentary party. Remember, that despite 5 rounds of voting and several options, nearly half of his MPs still refused to support his leadership.

    I predict that half a dozen tory MPs will not support his premiership.

    Cameron got less than 50% in the final MP ballot in 2005 . So your argument falls
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,617
    kjohnw said:

    Mysticrose said:

    With regards to a VONC, it's not simply a question of waiting to see if Johnson goes for No Deal.

    He is a deeply divisive figure and widely disliked in the parliamentary party. Remember, that despite 5 rounds of voting and several options, nearly half of his MPs still refused to support his leadership.

    I predict that half a dozen tory MPs will not support his premiership.

    Cameron got less than 50% in the final MP ballot in 2005 . So your argument falls
    The voting percentage is irrelevant. The important factors are those MPs who have said previously they would resign the party if Boris became leader, the two spoiled ballot papers, and the handful of Tories who have already spoken about voting down a Tory no deal government.

    The question is whether this is all bluster or whether they carry through.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,872
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Good article in The Economist:

    Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.

    https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/06/20/how-brexit-made-britain-a-country-of-remainers-and-leavers?fsrc=scn/tw/te/rfd/pe

    That doesn't make 'Leavers' more tolerant people. Being a Leaver in itself shows you to be intolerant and almost certainly a xenophobe. Of course Remainers wouldn't want their nearest and dearest to hook up with an inward looking xenophobe who is more than likely a racist to boot
    " I thank thee, Lord, that I am not as other men....."
    Call me old fashioned but if a close relative met someone who believed in corporal punishment capital punishment castration for sex offenders and didn't like foreigners I would not be first in the queue to go on holiday with them.
    What if they were good company?
    I've been through that movie before. They splutter over their cornflakes
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,307
    SouthamObserver said:

    So, is Johnson genuinely ignorant enough to believe this or is he just taking Tory members for fools? It has to be one or the other.
    https://twitter.com/backboris2019/status/1142505827452051463?s=21

    Is that what’s known as a deconstructed pyramid of piffle ?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    DougSeal said:

    Mysticrose said:

    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    This is completely untrue

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9305606/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-election/

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1143889/general-election-UK-boris-johnson-news-tory-leadership-race-nigel-farage-brexit-party

    General Election alert: Boris Johnson planning early election as Tories demand Farage deal

    BORIS JOHNSON could call an early election if he becomes Prime Minister, it has emerged, after a shock poll suggested almost two-thirds of Conservative members would welcome a coalition with the Brexit Party.

    At the moment he can't admit this might have to be prior to Brexit but he soon will when it's obvious Brexit won't be delivered on Oct 31st. It will be a Brexit or bust election.
    The joy of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act means that he can’t just “call an election” without the consent of his own MPs and some others. This piece of legislation has now been in place for 8 years and people still don’t get that a PM can no longer just rock up to the Palace and request a dissolution.
    Oh lord. Yes I do realise that. And yes you are of course right, as I'm sure every single poster on here also realises. Yes, he needs 2/3rds majority. Is he unlikely to get that? Nope. Labour and the HoC will bite his hand off. Apart from Anna Soubry. So thanks for the 'clarification.' So, Boris will call an election if and when it suits him.

    Actually, on a separate point does anyone else share my view that the Fixed Term Parliament Act has been a massive cock-up?

    Also can someone please tell me how the Mail on Sunday think Labour can table a Vote of No Confidence five days after they've all left Parliament for the summer? How can Labour MPs be on a 3-line whip on July 25th when they're off on their summer hols in Caracas?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Mysticrose said:

    DougSeal said:

    Mysticrose said:

    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    This is completely untrue

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9305606/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-election/

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1143889/general-election-UK-boris-johnson-news-tory-leadership-race-nigel-farage-brexit-party

    General Election alert: Boris Johnson planning early election as Tories demand Farage deal

    BORIS JOHNSON could call an early election if he becomes Prime Minister, it has emerged, after a shock poll suggested almost two-thirds of Conservative members would welcome a coalition with the Brexit Party.

    At the moment he can't admit this might have to be prior to Brexit but he soon will when it's obvious Brexit won't be delivered on Oct 31st. It will be a Brexit or bust election.
    The joy of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act means that he can’t just “call an election” without the consent of his own MPs and some others. This piece of legislation has now been in place for 8 years and people still don’t get that a PM can no longer just rock up to the Palace and request a dissolution.
    Oh lord. Yes I do realise that. And yes you are of course right, as I'm sure every single poster on here also realises. Yes, he needs 2/3rds majority. Is he unlikely to get that? Nope. Labour and the HoC will bite his hand off. Apart from Anna Soubry. So thanks for the 'clarification.' So, Boris will call an election if and when it suits him.

    Actually, on a separate point does anyone else share my view that the Fixed Term Parliament Act has been a massive cock-up?

    Also can someone please tell me how the Mail on Sunday think Labour can table a Vote of No Confidence five days after they've all left Parliament for the summer? How can Labour MPs be on a 3-line whip on July 25th when they're off on their summer hols in Caracas?
    FTPA has been another Cameron disaster.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,617
    Mysticrose said:

    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    This is completely untrue

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9305606/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-election/

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1143889/general-election-UK-boris-johnson-news-tory-leadership-race-nigel-farage-brexit-party

    General Election alert: Boris Johnson planning early election as Tories demand Farage deal

    BORIS JOHNSON could call an early election if he becomes Prime Minister, it has emerged, after a shock poll suggested almost two-thirds of Conservative members would welcome a coalition with the Brexit Party.

    At the moment he can't admit this might have to be prior to Brexit but he soon will when it's obvious Brexit won't be delivered on Oct 31st. It will be a Brexit or bust election.
    Its not "untrue" - since Boris has been asked the direct question about calling an early election several times and denied this is his plan. And many MPs are known to have sought commitments from the candidates that they wont do so.

    Those newspaper stories (one of which confirms it isnt his preference) are making a lot of not very much, and of course everyone knows an election is a clear possibility anyway.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,968
    kjohnw said:

    Mysticrose said:

    With regards to a VONC, it's not simply a question of waiting to see if Johnson goes for No Deal.

    He is a deeply divisive figure and widely disliked in the parliamentary party. Remember, that despite 5 rounds of voting and several options, nearly half of his MPs still refused to support his leadership.

    I predict that half a dozen tory MPs will not support his premiership.

    Cameron got less than 50% in the final MP ballot in 2005 . So your argument falls
    Cameron had 5 years from becoming Tory leader to win MPs around. Boris has negative 5 weeks - I suspect the damage is already done but he still has a month in which he is more likely to say something to scare an MP away than he's likely to win them over..
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    kjohnw said:

    Mysticrose said:

    With regards to a VONC, it's not simply a question of waiting to see if Johnson goes for No Deal.

    He is a deeply divisive figure and widely disliked in the parliamentary party. Remember, that despite 5 rounds of voting and several options, nearly half of his MPs still refused to support his leadership.

    I predict that half a dozen tory MPs will not support his premiership.

    Cameron got less than 50% in the final MP ballot in 2005 . So your argument falls

    I don't think that's proof of its invalidity. The fact that half of Cameron's MPs didn't support him doesn't alter the point that the half that didn't support Johnson do so for more heartfelt, even loathsome, reasons.

    My contention is that Boris is highly divisive and disliked by a significant number of his own MPs. In a way that Cameron wasn't. Not sure how you can readily argue with that? Or, if you do you perhaps don't have your ear to the Westminster ground.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,872
    CarlottaVance said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Good article in The Economist:

    Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.

    https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/06/20/how-brexit-made-britain-a-country-of-remainers-and-leavers?fsrc=scn/tw/te/rfd/pe

    That doesn't make 'Leavers' more tolerant people. Being a Leaver in itself shows you to be intolerant and almost certainly a xenophobe. Of course Remainers wouldn't want their nearest and dearest to hook up with an inward looking xenophobe who is more than likely a racist to boot
    " I thank thee, Lord, that I am not as other men....."
    Since Roger is in Scotland:

    “O, wad some Power the giftie gie us
    To see oursels as others see us!
    It wad frae monie a blunder free us,
    An' foolish notion.”
    Every night's a Burns night. I didn't realise until today that you were Scottish. You definitely win best of breeds. Apart from an obesity problem there's something alluring about the Scots.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,968
    edited June 2019
    Streeter said:

    DougSeal said:

    Mysticrose said:

    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    This is completely untrue

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9305606/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-election/

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1143889/general-election-UK-boris-johnson-news-tory-leadership-race-nigel-farage-brexit-party

    General Election alert: Boris Johnson planning early election as Tories demand Farage deal

    BORIS JOHNSON could call an early election if he becomes Prime Minister, it has emerged, after a shock poll suggested almost two-thirds of Conservative members would welcome a coalition with the Brexit Party.

    At the moment he can't admit this might have to be prior to Brexit but he soon will when it's obvious Brexit won't be delivered on Oct 31st. It will be a Brexit or bust election.
    The joy of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act means that he can’t just “call an election” without the consent of his own MPs and some others. This piece of legislation has now been in place for 8 years and people still don’t get that a PM can no longer just rock up to the Palace and request a dissolution.
    Determination will see him succeed...so we are told.
    He's needs 434 MPs in parliament actively voting for an election. Were Labour MPs to go on a day trip or abstain no election could be called
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited June 2019
    kjohnw said:

    Mysticrose said:

    With regards to a VONC, it's not simply a question of waiting to see if Johnson goes for No Deal.

    He is a deeply divisive figure and widely disliked in the parliamentary party. Remember, that despite 5 rounds of voting and several options, nearly half of his MPs still refused to support his leadership.

    I predict that half a dozen tory MPs will not support his premiership.

    Cameron got less than 50% in the final MP ballot in 2005 . So your argument falls
    Grieve was on the radio yesterday talking about a possible VONC. He said he did not wish to destabilise a Conservative government and would vote against it only in extremis. He also said that if Boris were defeated another Conservative PM could take office without a General Election.

    Others may take a diffent line, but I would doubt that Boris would fall at the first hurdle, especially as some independents might abstain.. There will also be a desire to avoid embarassing the Queen by having her new PM voted out. If it became clear that Boris could not command the House Theresa May would perhaps stay in office until the crisis were resolved.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    IanB2 said:

    Mysticrose said:

    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    This is completely untrue

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9305606/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-election/

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1143889/general-election-UK-boris-johnson-news-tory-leadership-race-nigel-farage-brexit-party

    General Election alert: Boris Johnson planning early election as Tories demand Farage deal

    BORIS JOHNSON could call an early election if he becomes Prime Minister, it has emerged, after a shock poll suggested almost two-thirds of Conservative members would welcome a coalition with the Brexit Party.

    At the moment he can't admit this might have to be prior to Brexit but he soon will when it's obvious Brexit won't be delivered on Oct 31st. It will be a Brexit or bust election.

    Those newspaper stories (one of which confirms it isnt his preference) are making a lot of not very much, and of course everyone knows an election is a clear possibility anyway.
    It's not just a newspaper story. It's a video taken last week of Boris putting them on a General Election footing for this year.

    So unless you think it's fake video footage you're talking out of your hat.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,968
    Mysticrose said:

    Mysticrose said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Another MoS story:

    .


    What I'm not clear about is the timing viz a viz Parliament. Isn't the leadership result going to be made after the recess on July 20th? In which case Corbyn can't table a Vote of No Confidence before September. I don't really understand how Labour can be signalling a 3-line whip on July 25th, after Parliament has recessed?!

    Can someone help me on this? How is a Vote of No Confidence supposed to be tabled on July 25th when they all broke up for their holidays 5 days earlier?
    It may not be..
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Jonathan said:

    Mysticrose said:

    DougSeal said:

    Mysticrose said:

    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    This is completely untrue

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9305606/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-election/

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1143889/general-election-UK-boris-johnson-news-tory-leadership-race-nigel-farage-brexit-party

    General Election alert: Boris Johnson planning early election as Tories demand Farage deal

    BORIS JOHNSON could call an early election if he becomes Prime Minister, it has emerged, after a shock poll suggested almost two-thirds of Conservative members would welcome a coalition with the Brexit Party.

    At the moment he can't admit this might have to be prior to Brexit but he soon will when it's obvious Brexit won't be delivered on Oct 31st. It will be a Brexit or bust election.
    The joy of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act means that he can’t just “call an election” without the consent of his own MPs and some others. This piece of legislation has now been in place for 8 years and people still don’t get that a PM can no longer just rock up to the Palace and request a dissolution.
    Oh lord. Yes I do realise that. And yes you are of course right, as I'm sure every single poster on here also realises. Yes, he needs 2/3rds majority. Is he unlikely to get that? Nope. Labour and the HoC will bite his hand off. Apart from Anna Soubry. So thanks for the 'clarification.' So, Boris will call an election if and when it suits him.

    Actually, on a separate point does anyone else share my view that the Fixed Term Parliament Act has been a massive cock-up?

    Also can someone please tell me how the Mail on Sunday think Labour can table a Vote of No Confidence five days after they've all left Parliament for the summer? How can Labour MPs be on a 3-line whip on July 25th when they're off on their summer hols in Caracas?
    FTPA has been another Cameron disaster.
    Indeed
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Someone I know who worked very closely with Cameron described him to me as idle. He made no preparations whatsoever for a Leave vote. I'm not sure if idleness is an Etonian disease, but we're about to have someone even lazier in No 10. The back of his car tells you what you need to know.

    We're in deep trouble.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    There is an arb starting to appear on Betfair between the Leader and Prime Minister markets, where you can back at 1.24 and lay at 1.23 -- but still lose money because of commission, so don't do this!! Nonetheless it is worth keeping an eye on.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,830
    Miss Rose, that may be complacency rather than laziness, though in that case the effect was much the same.

    Likewise occurred with the Scottish referendum (though happily that was won), and with the Fixed Term Parliament Act. It was sheer folly not to give it a sunset clause.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,307
    Mysticrose said:

    DougSeal said:

    Mysticrose said:

    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    This is completely untrue

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9305606/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-election/

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1143889/general-election-UK-boris-johnson-news-tory-leadership-race-nigel-farage-brexit-party

    General Election alert: Boris Johnson planning early election as Tories demand Farage deal

    BORIS JOHNSON could call an early election if he becomes Prime Minister, it has emerged, after a shock poll suggested almost two-thirds of Conservative members would welcome a coalition with the Brexit Party.

    At the moment he can't admit this might have to be prior to Brexit but he soon will when it's obvious Brexit won't be delivered on Oct 31st. It will be a Brexit or bust election.
    The joy of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act means that he can’t just “call an election” without the consent of his own MPs and some others. This piece of legislation has now been in place for 8 years and people still don’t get that a PM can no longer just rock up to the Palace and request a dissolution.
    Oh lord. Yes I do realise that. And yes you are of course right, as I'm sure every single poster on here also realises. Yes, he needs 2/3rds majority. Is he unlikely to get that? Nope. Labour and the HoC will bite his hand off. Apart from Anna Soubry. So thanks for the 'clarification.' So, Boris will call an election if and when it suits him....
    You are missing out a step, though.
    Under the FTPA, others get a chance to form a government ahead of any election. Can he really rule out the possibility (for example) of a temporary administration formed for the purpose of requesting an A50 extension ahead of an election ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,494
    Mysticrose said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mysticrose said:

    DougSeal said:

    Mysticrose said:

    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    This is completely untrue

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9305606/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-election/

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1143889/general-election-UK-boris-johnson-news-tory-leadership-race-nigel-farage-brexit-party

    General Election alert: Boris Johnson planning early election as Tories demand Farage deal

    BORIS JOHNSON could call an early election if he becomes Prime Minister, it has emerged, after a shock poll suggested almost two-thirds of Conservative members would welcome a coalition with the Brexit Party.

    At the moment he can't admit this might have to be prior to Brexit but he soon will when it's obvious Brexit won't be delivered on Oct 31st. It will be a Brexit or bust election.
    The joy of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act means that he can’t just “call an election” without the consent of his own MPs and some others. This piece of legislation has now been in place for 8 years and people still don’t get that a PM can no longer just rock up to the Palace and request a dissolution.
    Oh lord. Yes I do realise that. And yes you are of course right, as I'm sure every single poster on here also realises. Yes, he needs 2/3rds majority. Is he unlikely to get that? Nope. Labour and the HoC will bite his hand off. Apart from Anna Soubry. So thanks for the 'clarification.' So, Boris will call an election if and when it suits him.

    Actually, on a separate point does anyone else share my view that the Fixed Term Parliament Act has been a massive cock-up?

    Also can someone please tell me how the Mail on Sunday think Labour can table a Vote of No Confidence five days after they've all left Parliament for the summer? How can Labour MPs be on a 3-line whip on July 25th when they're off on their summer hols in Caracas?
    FTPA has been another Cameron disaster.
    Indeed
    TBH I don't think it's entirely fair to blame Cameron for the FTPA. IIRC it was part of the LibDem package for the coalition, which also included a fairer voting system and reform of the House of Lords. Cameron shafted Clegg et al over some of the package, but at the time the FTPA seemed like good insurance against such shafting.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,872
    PeterC said:

    kjohnw said:

    Mysticrose said:

    With regards to a VONC, it's not simply a question of waiting to see if Johnson goes for No Deal.

    He is a deeply divisive figure and widely disliked in the parliamentary party. Remember, that despite 5 rounds of voting and several options, nearly half of his MPs still refused to support his leadership.

    I predict that half a dozen tory MPs will not support his premiership.

    Cameron got less than 50% in the final MP ballot in 2005 . So your argument falls
    Grieve was on the radio yesterday talking about a possible VONC. He said he did not wish to destabilise a Conservative government and would vote against it only in extremis. He also said that if Boris were defeated another Conservative PM could take office without a General Election.

    Others may take a diffent line, but I would doubt that Boris would fall at the first hurdle, especially as some independents might abstain.. There will also be a desire to avoid embarassing the Queen by having her new PM voted out. If it became clear that Boris could not command the House Theresa May would perhaps stay in office until the crisis were resolved.
    It's the first time I've seen the word 'embarrassing' used in the context of Boris and our hunt for a PM which shows how out of touch we have become. We are well beyond being embarassing. We are the world's laughing stock. Like Boris we just have to pretend it's an act.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,968
    Nigelb said:

    Mysticrose said:

    DougSeal said:

    Mysticrose said:

    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    This is completely untrue

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9305606/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-election/

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1143889/general-election-UK-boris-johnson-news-tory-leadership-race-nigel-farage-brexit-party

    General Election alert: Boris Johnson planning early election as Tories demand Farage deal

    BORIS JOHNSON could call an early election if he becomes Prime Minister, it has emerged, after a shock poll suggested almost two-thirds of Conservative members would welcome a coalition with the Brexit Party.

    At the moment he can't admit this might have to be prior to Brexit but he soon will when it's obvious Brexit won't be delivered on Oct 31st. It will be a Brexit or bust election.
    The joy of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act means that he can’t just “call an election” without the consent of his own MPs and some others. This piece of legislation has now been in place for 8 years and people still don’t get that a PM can no longer just rock up to the Palace and request a dissolution.
    Oh lord. Yes I do realise that. And yes you are of course right, as I'm sure every single poster on here also realises. Yes, he needs 2/3rds majority. Is he unlikely to get that? Nope. Labour and the HoC will bite his hand off. Apart from Anna Soubry. So thanks for the 'clarification.' So, Boris will call an election if and when it suits him....
    You are missing out a step, though.
    Under the FTPA, others get a chance to form a government ahead of any election. Can he really rule out the possibility (for example) of a temporary administration formed for the purpose of requesting an A50 extension ahead of an election ?
    That's after a VoNC. A VoNC is however bypassed if 434 MPs vote for an early election...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,307
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mysticrose said:

    DougSeal said:

    Mysticrose said:

    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    This is completely untrue

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9305606/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-election/

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1143889/general-election-UK-boris-johnson-news-tory-leadership-race-nigel-farage-brexit-party

    General Election alert: Boris Johnson planning early election as Tories demand Farage deal

    BORIS JOHNSON could call an early election if he becomes Prime Minister, it has emerged, after a shock poll suggested almost two-thirds of Conservative members would welcome a coalition with the Brexit Party.

    At the moment he can't admit this might have to be prior to Brexit but he soon will when it's obvious Brexit won't be delivered on Oct 31st. It will be a Brexit or bust election.
    The joy of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act means that he can’t just “call an election” without the consent of his own MPs and some others. This piece of legislation has now been in place for 8 years and people still don’t get that a PM can no longer just rock up to the Palace and request a dissolution.
    Oh lord. Yes I do realise that. And yes you are of course right, as I'm sure every single poster on here also realises. Yes, he needs 2/3rds majority. Is he unlikely to get that? Nope. Labour and the HoC will bite his hand off. Apart from Anna Soubry. So thanks for the 'clarification.' So, Boris will call an election if and when it suits him....
    You are missing out a step, though.
    Under the FTPA, others get a chance to form a government ahead of any election. Can he really rule out the possibility (for example) of a temporary administration formed for the purpose of requesting an A50 extension ahead of an election ?
    That's after a VoNC. A VoNC is however bypassed if 434 MPs vote for an early election...
    Which they might not, for the reason I’ve outlined.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    PeterC said:

    kjohnw said:

    Mysticrose said:

    With regards to a VONC, it's not simply a question of waiting to see if Johnson goes for No Deal.

    He is a deeply divisive figure and widely disliked in the parliamentary party. Remember, that despite 5 rounds of voting and several options, nearly half of his MPs still refused to support his leadership.

    I predict that half a dozen tory MPs will not support his premiership.

    Cameron got less than 50% in the final MP ballot in 2005 . So your argument falls
    Grieve was on the radio yesterday talking about a possible VONC. He said he did not wish to destabilise a Conservative government and would vote against it only in extremis. He also said that if Boris were defeated another Conservative PM could take office without a General Election.

    Others may take a diffent line, but I would doubt that Boris would fall at the first hurdle, especially as some independents might abstain.. There will also be a desire to avoid embarassing the Queen by having her new PM voted out. If it became clear that Boris could not command the House Theresa May would perhaps stay in office until the crisis were resolved.
    Don't forget that unlike Corbyn Boris was the leading choice among Conservative MPs.

    Forget the polling now, what would it look like if Hunt or Boris were PM. From what we know of Boris mightn't it all unravel very quickly?

    Go back to 2007. Many Labour MPs hoped that Brown would 'change' once he had become PM and his grievances out of the way. I doubted that view on this website and thought the Stalinist ruthlessness described by Lord Turnball would in the end do for Brown whatever honeymoon he might enjoy.

    Yet what seems striking about Tory MPs is they aren't expecting Boris to change. They know what he's like but don't anticipate the public will turn on him once he's in high office. Really?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,788
    Boris out to 1.25. Getting interesting?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,617
    Mysticrose said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mysticrose said:

    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    This is completely untrue

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9305606/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-election/

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1143889/general-election-UK-boris-johnson-news-tory-leadership-race-nigel-farage-brexit-party

    General Election alert: Boris Johnson planning early election as Tories demand Farage deal

    BORIS JOHNSON could call an early election if he becomes Prime Minister, it has emerged, after a shock poll suggested almost two-thirds of Conservative members would welcome a coalition with the Brexit Party.

    At the moment he can't admit this might have to be prior to Brexit but he soon will when it's obvious Brexit won't be delivered on Oct 31st. It will be a Brexit or bust election.

    Those newspaper stories (one of which confirms it isnt his preference) are making a lot of not very much, and of course everyone knows an election is a clear possibility anyway.
    It's not just a newspaper story. It's a video taken last week of Boris putting them on a General Election footing for this year.

    So unless you think it's fake video footage you're talking out of your hat.
    Here is what Boris said at the hustings - which we all saw on TV - as reported by the Standard: "Insisting he would not call a general election, Mr Johnson said: "We are looking at a very difficult situation and we must get ready, eventually but not immediately, to beat Jeremy Corbyn and put Farage back in his box."

    We can debate whether he meant it - but please don't deny that he said it. He's made similar comments in radio interviews.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,807
    Mysticrose said:

    DougSeal said:

    Mysticrose said:

    IanB2 said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Possible scenario:

    Boris wins the leadership and immediately (as in first speech) calls an election.

    I suspect Williamson has at least wargamed it.

    Boris has said he won’t, and promised (since his MPs don’t want it) not to do this, on multiple occasions.
    This is completely untrue

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9305606/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-election/

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1143889/general-election-UK-boris-johnson-news-tory-leadership-race-nigel-farage-brexit-party

    General Election alert: Boris Johnson planning early election as Tories demand Farage deal

    BORIS JOHNSON could call an early election if he becomes Prime Minister, it has emerged, after a shock poll suggested almost two-thirds of Conservative members would welcome a coalition with the Brexit Party.

    At the moment he can't admit this might have to be prior to Brexit but he soon will when it's obvious Brexit won't be delivered on Oct 31st. It will be a Brexit or bust election.
    The joy of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act means that he can’t just “call an election” without the consent of his own MPs and some others. This piece of legislation has now been in place for 8 years and people still don’t get that a PM can no longer just rock up to the Palace and request a dissolution.
    Oh lord. Yes I do realise that. And yes you are of course right, as I'm sure every single poster on here also realises. Yes, he needs 2/3rds majority. Is he unlikely to get that? Nope. Labour and the HoC will bite his hand off. Apart from Anna Soubry. So thanks for the 'clarification.' So, Boris will call an election if and when it suits him.

    Actually, on a separate point does anyone else share my view that the Fixed Term Parliament Act has been a massive cock-up?

    Also can someone please tell me how the Mail on Sunday think Labour can table a Vote of No Confidence five days after they've all left Parliament for the summer? How can Labour MPs be on a 3-line whip on July 25th when they're off on their summer hols in Caracas?
    The Labour Party might well bite his hand off but, as the post above points out, it is by no means certain his own party will. They might, I grant you, but current polling and their last experience of doing this exercise means a 2/3 HOC majority for an election is not nailed on and, if there is a VONC, there is the opportunity for someone else to try and form an administration without an election, In 2017 the Tories were 20 points + ahead. Given that experience, with a marmite leader, and based on r3cent polling, if you were a Conservative MP would you want an election right now? Boris might walk in water when he becomes leader. So did Theresa once.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    SouthamObserver said:

    The LibDems have three months to make a demonstrable breakthrough. If they don’t, millions of us are going to have the Sophie’s Choice of Corbyn or Johnson. I spent years hoping to live in a Labour/Tory marginal so my vote would count. Now I wish I didn’t!

    Suddenly my being limited to the peoples Republic of bercow makes things rather easier...
  • eekeek Posts: 30,968
    edited June 2019
    Nigelb said:



    Which they might not, for the reason I’ve outlined.

    Read my statement again:-

    Boris has 1 way to dissolve Parliament to ask Parliament to dissolve itself (434 votes required).
    The leader of the opposition can call a VoNC and after that there are 2 weeks to try and form a Government before it moves to a general election.

    One or other things can occur but Boris asking for Parliament to be dissolved doesn't give the other parties a chance to form a Government that needs a VoNC to tabled and won first.

    Check https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011#Provisions for a quick overview...

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,830
    King Cole, I'd agree, if it contained a sunset clause. There was no reason not to. The omission was just stupid.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Johnson is facing five plots to derail his premiership before it has even started:

    ● Tory MPs plan to write to May saying they will not vote for Johnson in a motion of no confidence, making it difficult for her to recommend that the Queen invites him to form a government because he will not be able to command a majority in the House of Commons.

    ● Dominic Grieve, the former attorney- general, yesterday confirmed that even if this does not work, a sizeable group of Tory MPs is prepared to vote with Labour to bring down the government if Johnson persists with his plan to leave the EU by October 31 come what may. He said another Tory could be summoned to the palace instead.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/mps-plotting-to-make-boris-pm-for-just-one-day-br03hdsv9
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Nigelb said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So, is Johnson genuinely ignorant enough to believe this or is he just taking Tory members for fools? It has to be one or the other.
    https://twitter.com/backboris2019/status/1142505827452051463?s=21

    Is that what’s known as a deconstructed pyramid of piffle ?
    I reckon he just doesn't understand it. Which i suppose gives some hope that he might be forced to change course once in office. I doubt he's even read the WA. He talks about "with-holding the £37b" but clearly doesn't understand that a proportion of that is simply Single Market payments in return for the 2 two year transitional period. Just changing the wording to "implementation" doesn't change that.
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