politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit: Some Inconvenient Facts that the Tories need to face
Comments
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Noone's near enough to hear, are they?GIN1138 said:
Wonder if JRM's ever had the police at his door following a bust up at midnight?CarlottaVance said:
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I'm sure if Jezza's neighbour recorded Jezza's stereo blasting out anti-semitic Isis songs Jezza's right to privacy would be universally regarded as paramount.OllyT said:
Likewise everyone expressing outrage that Johnson's privacy has been invaded would be saying the exact opposite if the incident had involved Corbynisam said:
In contemporary politics, every side thinks they are the only sane ones. Quite awful really, diversity of opinion is not allowed, all dissenters are mentally ill or dupes.Scott_P said:The cult of BoZo is every bit as mad as the cult of Corbyn.
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If there is a general election before then yes.alex. said:So if the next PM fails to deliver Brexit by 31October, but delivers it by, say 30th April does anyone really think that Brexit supporters would punish them for it?
In any case it is quite clear that Labour MPs will not deliver a 'Tory' Brexit and LD and SNP MPs will not deliver any Brexit at all and the EU will only deliver a Brexit Deal with the backstop which the DUP will always vote against so unless the Tories (or indeed Farage) win a majority at the next general election we will not get Brexit0 -
Wow the Lib Dems have more than doubled their score from the last GE!!CarlottaVance said:0 -
My neighbours frequently row, but it wouldn't cross my mind to call the police to embarrass them.0
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Two out of three, Gove out would make my day.HYUFD said:0 -
By winning back enough Brexit Party supporters to get a majorityrottenborough said:
How?HYUFD said:
Hunt can't get it done as it needs a majority to get Brexit through the Commons before October and only Boris can deliver thatrottenborough said:Hunt coming across well as someone who can actually get Brexit done, rather than just saying endlessly that he will get it done.
Will members start to have second thoughts on Boris?
Boris is far more likely to balls up Brexit negotiations and end up having to have a GE. Do members really want that?0 -
The new May in that case.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, I disagree on that score.
Whilst Boris is being given a ridiculously easy ride by some, willing to overlook his incompetence despite it being plain as the nose on his face, that single-mindedness is not driven by loyalty to Boris but to the desire to leave the EU. If/when Boris cocks that up, his support from that wing will evaporate, and the moderates were never enthused with him anyway.
He might, however, end up staying in place if MPs fear he'll be replaced by someone closer to the EU. Or, from the other wing, if MPs fear he'll be replaced by someone who would take us out with no deal.
Or as 'H' would almost certainly put it - "Theresa in Y fronts".
Sorry.0 -
Not impossible, of course if Boris sacks Gove might make things awkward for Gove backer Ruthiemalcolmg said:
Two out of three, Gove out would make my day.HYUFD said:0 -
will be either referendum or election regardless of who winsrottenborough said:Hunt coming across well as someone who can actually get Brexit done, rather than just saying endlessly that he will get it done.
Will members start to have second thoughts on Boris?
Boris is far more likely to balls up Brexit negotiations and end up having to have a GE. Do members really want that?0 -
So Boris has to make a dash for the polls?HYUFD said:
By winning back enough Brexit Party supporters to get a majorityrottenborough said:
How?HYUFD said:
Hunt can't get it done as it needs a majority to get Brexit through the Commons before October and only Boris can deliver thatrottenborough said:Hunt coming across well as someone who can actually get Brexit done, rather than just saying endlessly that he will get it done.
Will members start to have second thoughts on Boris?
Boris is far more likely to balls up Brexit negotiations and end up having to have a GE. Do members really want that?0 -
A little brain teaser - what’s the difference between them and someone likely to be PM next month ?isam said:A little brain teaser
Nigel Farage is living next door to a family of immigrants... he has been putting posters on their car windscreens badmouthing them. The immigrant family have an argument one night which Farage records through the walls of his flat, before calling the police and the Express. The police say everyone is fine there is no case to answer, The Express lead with the story
Are the people on Boris' case now, on Farages side, or his neighbours?0 -
Gove isn't committed to leaving on 31st October and opposes no deal, so would be a strange choice as Brexit secretary...0
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And the backstop ......?JohnO said:
You know what...I agree with Nick. Got it in four.NickPalmer said:
My expectation of the Boris gameplan (not based on any inside information) is:algarkirk said:All true. Examination of the issues shows that to leave the EU TMs deal is still the only option, and it must be likely that with the use of smoke and mirrors that is what Boris, if given the chance, will try. But will he get the chance?
The lengthy list leaves out a central issue: assuming Boris wins can he get to the starting gate of forming a stable government and winning an early VONC? I think there must be a bit of doubt. The DUP are not reliable, and he would only need a small number of implacable foes on his own side to be defeated. Could this become an issue in the campaign between Hunt and Boris?
1. Embellish the existing WA with smoke and mirrors, just as you say. Lots of lovely promises in the political declaration. Fierce proclamations. Disparaging personal attacks on anyone who disagrees. The EU perceives the same old WA through the smoke, rolls its eyes and lets him try.
2. If Parliament passes it, fine. Onwards! Upwards!
3. If Parliament votes it down, call an election. "Enough is enough", "let's get it done", "speak for Britain", etc etc. Boris will gamble that he can win by force of personality. Deselect anyone who dissents, call them something like "nasty nitpicking nonentities". Take on Farage and Corbyn in debate, and deploy bluster.
4. If he wins, fabulous for him. If he loses, oh well, it was fun anyway.0 -
are you the new truth police commissioner thenChris said:
In that case you shouldn't mislead people by describing something as "accepted fact" when it's nonsense.kle4 said:
I'm not the one deciding specific parts of the story are definitely true or definitely false, its not me who has accepted certain parts as fact because it makes them feel better and makes it better for Boris. The point was those who do want to bolster him will accept the detail as fact even if it is not. That is not controversial.Chris said:
Perhaps you should try to distinguish "accepted fact" from ludicrous stuff you read on the Internet. Probably most people have some inkling they're not the same thing.kle4 said:
Won't matter. I've only followed the story on here, but from the sounds of it it has already become accepted fact that they did it. Heck, .SouthamObserver said:
God knows why. Some people like Johnson for reasons I cannot understand. There is not a shred of evidence linking those who called the police to the posters. And they have denied doing it.isam said:
They left posters on his car saying "We dont want him as a Neighbour, let alone PM", or words to that effect, so I think you should review your allegation that there is not a shred of evidence.SouthamObserver said:
I think you want it to be true because you have decided without a shred of evidence that the people who reported Johnson have been involved in a campaign against him.isam said:
Why would I want it to be true?SouthamObserver said:
How do you know that applies in the Johnson case. I know you want it to be true, but how do you know? Do you think those concerned are lying to the Guardian?isam said:
Try living next door to someone who hates you, leaves posters attacking you on your car, and wants to shame you publicly so you wont get a job you're after
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/22/boris-johnson-neighbour-interview-call-police
It was on a Sky News bulletin (the poster left by his neighbours on his car), and I think they are probably wildly exaggerating if not completely lying
But why would I want it to be true?
This site used to be a place where reliable information could be found. Evidently not any more.0 -
Electoral Calculus gives Labour 253, Brexit Party 219, Tories 58, LDs 57, SNP 42.CarlottaVance said:
So only a Labour plus SNP plus LDs coalition has the numbers for a majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=20&LAB=26&LIB=16&Brexit=23&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
HYUFD - If Boris publicly announced that his Brexit plan was to call a general Election do you think that would make him more or less likely to get the support of the Tory membership?0
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Probably yesrottenborough said:
So Boris has to make a dash for the polls?HYUFD said:
By winning back enough Brexit Party supporters to get a majorityrottenborough said:
How?HYUFD said:
Hunt can't get it done as it needs a majority to get Brexit through the Commons before October and only Boris can deliver thatrottenborough said:Hunt coming across well as someone who can actually get Brexit done, rather than just saying endlessly that he will get it done.
Will members start to have second thoughts on Boris?
Boris is far more likely to balls up Brexit negotiations and end up having to have a GE. Do members really want that?0 -
The parallel between Trump's salacious past in 2016 and Boris Johnson's today is intriguing. In 2016 Trump's history was already well known and was essentially baked in to his support. Revelations during the campaign appeared not to have much effect.
Likewise, Johnson's history is well known today, and presumably (?) baked in to a greater or lesser extent.
The BBC keeps quoting people as saying Johnson is not 'fit' to be prime minister, whatever that means. I'm not aware of any honesty or morality levels required to be PM. All you need is electability and that other ability - the ability to get things done.0 -
Hunt: "I will proceed with HS2. It is vital"2
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Oh no! Hunt wants HS2!
Bozo it is then.0 -
A very good question.alex. said:HYUFD - If Boris publicly announced that his Brexit plan was to call a general Election do you think that would make him more or less likely to get the support of the Tory membership?
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She has already insulted Boris big time but you can be sure she will be brown nosing soon and saying she always liked him really and was misconstrued.HYUFD said:
Not impossible, of course if Boris sacks Gove might make things awkward for Gove backer Ruthiemalcolmg said:
Two out of three, Gove out would make my day.HYUFD said:
She really put her foot in it on this.
PS Gove was her 3rd or 4th choice0 -
If you read the Mail (!) account of the incident, you’ll note the story is corroborated by other neighbours.Wulfrun_Phil said:
I think it is established that the neighbours recorded Johnson in his partner's home and then contacted a national newspaper hostile to Johnson to sell them the details. From that I think it is reasonable to cast doubt on their motives and on whether their account can be fully relied upon.SouthamObserver said:
How do you know that applies in the Johnson case. I know you want it to be true, but how do you know? Do you think those concerned are lying to the Guardian?isam said:
Try living next door to someone who hates you, leaves posters attacking you on your car, and wants to shame you publicly so you wont get a job you're afterSouthamObserver said:
I have been married for 30 years and have had plenty of rows with my wife. Before yesterday I thought it was unremarkable that the police had never been called to investigate. Clearly, though, we are an exception to the rule.Theuniondivvie said:Sean_F said:
I don't even like Boris, but this story is shit. People argue.kjohnw said:
I’m sorry but most couples row, it’s normal , he spilt wine on the sofa , they had a tiff, so what , he hasn’t beaten her up , she may have lost her temper , you wanna year my wife when I’m in the doghouse, this is all so overblown , it’s become a media feeding frenzy over a non event , with politically motivated neighbours who sold the recording to the guardian invading their neighbours basic privacy rights. Why not just call the police if you are so concerned ?? It’s a circus motivated to bring down BorisScott_P said:
It would probably reduce the guff quotient if people who occupy more-or-less the same political area as Boris prefacing their defences of him with 'I don't even like Boris' realised that it isn't convincing anyone.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/22/boris-johnson-neighbour-interview-call-police
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Hunt seems to get a reasonably good positive reaction from audience there.0
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That's a good question. HYUFD? Or anyone else?alex. said:HYUFD - If Boris publicly announced that his Brexit plan was to call a general Election do you think that would make him more or less likely to get the support of the Tory membership?
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They’re up against Farage?Nigelb said:
A little brain teaser - what’s the difference between them and someone likely to be PM next month ?isam said:A little brain teaser
Nigel Farage is living next door to a family of immigrants... he has been putting posters on their car windscreens badmouthing them. The immigrant family have an argument one night which Farage records through the walls of his flat, before calling the police and the Express. The police say everyone is fine there is no case to answer, The Express lead with the story
Are the people on Boris' case now, on Farages side, or his neighbours?0 -
Definite win for Hunt imho. Came across as far more open to answering questions and interested in thinking things through in an responsible manner.
Not chance then. But perhaps it will be closer than we all think.0 -
Is this what the Americans call push-polling? Getting your propaganda in the question?Stark_Dawning said:
I'm sure if Jezza's neighbour recorded Jezza's stereo blasting out anti-semitic Isis songs Jezza's right to privacy would be universally regarded as paramount.OllyT said:
Likewise everyone expressing outrage that Johnson's privacy has been invaded would be saying the exact opposite if the incident had involved Corbynisam said:
In contemporary politics, every side thinks they are the only sane ones. Quite awful really, diversity of opinion is not allowed, all dissenters are mentally ill or dupes.Scott_P said:The cult of BoZo is every bit as mad as the cult of Corbyn.
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I said from the sounds of it had become accepted fact, and was pretty clear who I thought it was accepted fact to. I did not claim I thought it fact or that was fact, so screw you for implying I was peddling unreliable information. It was a comment on how I expect some people to perceive the incident.Chris said:
In that case you shouldn't mislead people by describing something as "accepted fact" when it's nonsense.kle4 said:
I'm not the one deciding specific rsial.Chris said:
Perhaps you should try to distinguish "accepted fact" from ludicrous stuff g.kle4 said:
Won't matter. I've only followed the story on here, but from the sounds of it it has already become accepted fact that they did it. Heck, .SouthamObserver said:
God knows why. Some people like Johnson for reasons g it.isam said:
They left posters on his car saying "We dont want him as a Neighbour, let alone PM", or words to that effect, so I think you should review your allegation that there is not a shred of evidence.SouthamObserver said:
I think you want it to be true because you have decided without a shred of evidence that the people who reported Johnson have been involved in a campaign against him.isam said:
Why would I want it to be true?SouthamObserver said:
How do you know that applies in the Johnson case. I know you want it to be true, but how do you know? Do you think those concerned are lying to the Guardian?isam said:
Try living next door to someone who hates you, leaves posters attacking you on your car, and wants to shame you publicly so you wont get a job you're after
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/22/boris-johnson-neighbour-interview-call-police
It was on a Sky News bulletin (the poster left by his neighbours on his car), and I think they are probably wildly exaggerating if not completely lying
But why would I want it to be true?
This site used to be a place where reliable information could be found. Evidently not any more.
Its perhaps the case I could have been clearer. But before you condescend about it you might get your own facts right about what I said. Instead you condemn me for something I did not say.
So rather than this place not providing reliable Information how about you look in the mirror and not look a fool for accusing me of peddling information when I was not.
For christ sake my whole point was people are accepting something as fact which might not be, and you take that as me saying it is fact? Idiot.0 -
LOL. you would have to be seriously deranged to imagine Brexit Party getting 219 MP's. Farage only managed only last time and that was a defection. Dream on.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Labour 253, Brexit Party 219, Tories 58, LDs 57, SNP 42.CarlottaVance said:
So only a Labour plus SNP plus LDs coalition has the numbers for a majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=20&LAB=26&LIB=16&Brexit=23&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
Would it be newsworthy if the immigrant family had an argument?isam said:A little brain teaser
Nigel Farage is living next door to a family of immigrants... he has been putting posters on their car windscreens badmouthing them. The immigrant family have an argument one night which Farage records through the walls of his flat, before calling the police and the Express. The police say everyone is fine there is no case to answer, The Express lead with the story
Are the people on Boris' case now, on Farages side, or his neighbours?
(Or maybe you and I just read different newspapers.)0 -
I do think Boris has a problem in peoples perception on trust. Whether you like him or loath him, if he aspires to be PM: He has to be an open book. If the public view him as an embarassment that is good enough to deny him our ultimate office.Tim_B said:The parallel between Trump's salacious past in 2016 and Boris Johnson's today is intriguing. In 2016 Trump's history was already well known and was essentially baked in to his support. Revelations during the campaign appeared not to have much effect.
Likewise, Johnson's history is well known today, and presumably (?) baked in to a greater or lesser extent.
The BBC keeps quoting people as saying Johnson is not 'fit' to be prime minister, whatever that means. I'm not aware of any honesty or morality levels required to be PM. All you need is electability and that other ability - the ability to get things done.0 -
If he does that he will be out on his ear!HYUFD said:
Probably yesrottenborough said:
So Boris has to make a dash for the polls?HYUFD said:
By winning back enough Brexit Party supporters to get a majorityrottenborough said:
How?HYUFD said:
Hunt can't get it done as it needs a majority to get Brexit through the Commons before October and only Boris can deliver thatrottenborough said:Hunt coming across well as someone who can actually get Brexit done, rather than just saying endlessly that he will get it done.
Will members start to have second thoughts on Boris?
Boris is far more likely to balls up Brexit negotiations and end up having to have a GE. Do members really want that?0 -
I would say it would be big mistake at this point, he needs to get in first , do a bit of smoke and mirrors and then say Labour are forcing us to have election.Recidivist said:
That's a good question. HYUFD? Or anyone else?alex. said:HYUFD - If Boris publicly announced that his Brexit plan was to call a general Election do you think that would make him more or less likely to get the support of the Tory membership?
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A lot of people are making the hopeful assumption that "baked into" the public opinion of Johnson is that he is a liar and womaniser who attracts police interest. They may be over-estimating the level of attention the average person pays to the precise details of political gossip.0
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What a loser. He obviously does not really want the job, just looking to get juicy post from Boris.rottenborough said:Hunt: "I will proceed with HS2. It is vital"
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It just isnt unequivocal. Politicians say things like I am going to win this election. It is not a guarantee they will, it is expressing their intent (if things go the way they want them to).CarlottaVance said:
That's an unequivocal Oct 31.....more than he said in the hustings.HYUFD said:0 -
Interesting. I am not alone in thinking that was a clear Hunt win.CarlottaVance said:0 -
While those assertions may be true, they might also be false.Wulfrun_Phil said:I think it is established that the neighbours recorded Johnson in his partner's home and then contacted a national newspaper hostile to Johnson to sell them the details. From that I think it is reasonable to cast doubt on their motives and on whether their account can be fully relied upon.
If my neighbour was Taylor Swift, and she was rowing with her partner and I could hear it through the walls.
Well... I think I'd probably record it and sell it to the tabloids.
Not because I hated Taylor Swift, or her music, but because I'd make a few quid from selling it.
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Did you record your neighbours and give a copy of the recording to the Guardian?SandyRentool said:I now realise that when I was woken up by my neighbours at two in the morning the appropriate response would have been to go round and apologise for intruding on their privacy.
Some PBers do talk shite at times.0 -
Not sure that was wise. To the membership HS2 summons up horrific memories of the Osborne/Cameron era - an era of utter darkness.rottenborough said:Hunt: "I will proceed with HS2. It is vital"
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Depends. Johnson just blustered.Stark_Dawning said:
Not sure that was wise. To the membership HS2 summons up horrific memories of the Osborne/Cameron era - and era of utter darkness.rottenborough said:Hunt: "I will proceed with HS2. It is vital"
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+1malcolmg said:
LOL. you would have to be seriously deranged to imagine Brexit Party getting 219 MP's. Farage only managed only last time and that was a defection. Dream on.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Labour 253, Brexit Party 219, Tories 58, LDs 57, SNP 42.CarlottaVance said:
So only a Labour plus SNP plus LDs coalition has the numbers for a majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=20&LAB=26&LIB=16&Brexit=23&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
I dont think he understands incumbency, local party machines, national campaigns and FPTP dynamics in general. He might have a point if elected MPs by PR but it is just fantasy all his views on polls!0 -
It is likely to help him with the lower orders, shows even toffs have a barney.EPG said:A lot of people are making the hopeful assumption that "baked into" the public opinion of Johnson is that he is a liar and womaniser who attracts police interest. They may be over-estimating the level of attention the average person pays to the precise details of political gossip.
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I came here and specifically asked a question about whether there was any evidence that the neighbours who complained to the police were the same who had put a poster on Johnson's car, as one commenter had claimed.kle4 said:
I said from the sounds of it had become accepted fact, and was pretty clear who I thought it was accepted fact to. I did not claim I thought it fact or that was fact, so screw you for implying I was peddling unreliable information. It was a comment on how I expect some people to perceive the incident.Chris said:
In that case you shouldn't mislead people by describing something as "accepted fact" when it's nonsense.kle4 said:
I'm not the one deciding specific rsial.Chris said:
Perhaps you should try to distinguish "accepted fact" from ludicrous stuff g.kle4 said:
Won't matter. I've only followed the story on here, but from the sounds of it it has already become accepted fact that they did it. Heck, .SouthamObserver said:
God knows why. Some people like Johnson for reasons g it.isam said:
They left posters on his car saying "We dont want him as a Neighbour, let alone PM", or words to that effect, so I think you should review your allegation that there is not a shred of evidence.SouthamObserver said:
I think you want it to be true because you have decided without a shred of evidence that the people who reported Johnson have been involved in a campaign against him.
But why would I want it to be true?
This site used to be a place where reliable information could be found. Evidently not any more.
Its perhaps the case I could have been clearer. But before you condescend about it you might get your own facts right about what I said. Instead you condemn me for something I did not say.
So rather than this place not providing reliable Information how about you look in the mirror and not look a fool for accusing me of peddling information when I was not.
For christ sake my whole point was people are accepting something as fact which might not be, and you take that as me saying it is fact? Idiot.
Southam Observer helpfully explained there wasn't a shred of evidence.
Then you responded to him by saying:
"I've only followed the story on here, but from the sounds of it it has already become accepted fact that they did it."
So screw you if that's your attitude. And screw you for trying to make out I'm in the wrong.
This place is getting on a par with Guido's site.
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Once they get over 20% the Brexit Party get a lot more seats for their buck, even in 2015 UKIP only got 12%.malcolmg said:
LOL. you would have to be seriously deranged to imagine Brexit Party getting 219 MP's. Farage only managed only last time and that was a defection. Dream on.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Labour 253, Brexit Party 219, Tories 58, LDs 57, SNP 42.CarlottaVance said:
So only a Labour plus SNP plus LDs coalition has the numbers for a majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=20&LAB=26&LIB=16&Brexit=23&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Plus if Boris does not win I am not sure Hunt is strong enough to hold off Farage and Corbyn0 -
Boris got the better audience reaction thoughrottenborough said:Definite win for Hunt imho. Came across as far more open to answering questions and interested in thinking things through in an responsible manner.
Not chance then. But perhaps it will be closer than we all think.
https://twitter.com/robertrea/status/1142462019653840896?s=200 -
And obsessive belief in the reliability of the Electoral Calculus model. In a completely unprecedented situation with every party below 25% and likely tactical voting on an epic scale.The_Taxman said:
+1malcolmg said:
LOL. you would have to be seriously deranged to imagine Brexit Party getting 219 MP's. Farage only managed only last time and that was a defection. Dream on.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Labour 253, Brexit Party 219, Tories 58, LDs 57, SNP 42.CarlottaVance said:
So only a Labour plus SNP plus LDs coalition has the numbers for a majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=20&LAB=26&LIB=16&Brexit=23&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
I dont think he understands incumbency, local party machines, national campaigns and FPTP dynamics in general. He might have a point if elected MPs by PR but it is just fantasy all his views on polls!0 -
Now you are in the realms of fantasy.isam said:
Nigel Farage is living next door to a family of immigrants
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You can bet your bottom dollar that the Guido crew will have been trawling through every possible source to try to get some dirt on the people who called the police about the Johnson row and recorded it. They still don't seem to have found anything.0
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why you still here then , take your chip elsewhereChris said:
I came here and specifically asked a question about whether there was any evidence that the neighbours who complained to the police were the same who had put a poster on Johnson's car, as one commenter had claimed.kle4 said:
I said from the sounds of it had become accepted fact, and was pretty clear who I thought it was accepted fact to. I did not claim I thought it fact or that was fact, so screw you for implying I was peddling unreliable information. It was a comment on how I expect some people to perceive the incident.Chris said:
In that case you shouldn't mislead people by describing something as "accepted fact" when it's nonsense.kle4 said:
I'm not the one deciding specific rsial.Chris said:
Perhaps you should try to distinguish "accepted fact" from ludicrous stuff g.kle4 said:
Won't matter. I've only followed the story on here, but from the sounds of it it has already become accepted fact that they did it. Heck, .SouthamObserver said:
God knows why. Some people like Johnson for reasons g it.isam said:
They left posters on his car saying "We dont want him as a Neighbour, let alone PM", or words to that effect, so I think you should review your allegation that there is not a shred of evidence.SouthamObserver said:
I think you want it to be true because you have decided without a shred of evidence that the people who reported Johnson have been involved in a campaign against him.
But why would I want it to be true?
This site used to be a place where reliable information could be found. Evidently not any more.
Its perhaps the case I could have been clearer. But before you condescend about it you might get your own facts right about what I said. Instead you condemn me for something I did not say.
So rather than this place not providing reliable Information how about you look in the mirror and not look a fool for accusing me of peddling information when I was not.
For christ sake my whole point was people are accepting something as fact which might not be, and you take that as me saying it is fact? Idiot.
Southam Observer helpfully explained there wasn't a shred of evidence.
Then you responded to him by saying:
"I've only followed the story on here, but from the sounds of it it has already become accepted fact that they did it."
So screw you if that's your attitude. And screw you for trying to make out I'm in the wrong.
This place is getting on a par with Guido's site.0 -
Yep, Hunt will find it hard to persuade a cult to change its mind. Labour's Corbyn critics have the same problem.HYUFD said:
Boris got the better audience reaction thoughrottenborough said:Definite win for Hunt imho. Came across as far more open to answering questions and interested in thinking things through in an responsible manner.
Not chance then. But perhaps it will be closer than we all think.
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In reality though , when it comes to it and you have Farage and a bunch of loonies standing , do you seriously think they will get over 20%HYUFD said:
Once they get over 20% the Brexit Party get a lot more seats for their buck, even in 2015 UKIP only got 12%.malcolmg said:
LOL. you would have to be seriously deranged to imagine Brexit Party getting 219 MP's. Farage only managed only last time and that was a defection. Dream on.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Labour 253, Brexit Party 219, Tories 58, LDs 57, SNP 42.CarlottaVance said:
So only a Labour plus SNP plus LDs coalition has the numbers for a majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=20&LAB=26&LIB=16&Brexit=23&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Plus if Boris does not win I am not sure Hunt is strong enough to hold off Farage and Corbyn0 -
SouthamObserver said:
You can bet your bottom dollar that the Guido crew will have been trawling through every possible source to try to get some dirt on the people who called the police about the Johnson row and recorded it. They still don't seem to have found anything.
And?
0 -
FFS, we are not your research assistants.Chris said:
I came here and specifically asked a question about whether there was any evidence that the neighbours who complained to the police were the same who had put a poster on Johnson's car, as one commenter had claimed.kle4 said:
I said from the sounds of it had become accepted fact, and was pretty clear who I thought it was accepted fact to. I did not claim I thought it fact or that was fact, so screw you for implying I was peddling unreliable information. It was a comment on how I expect some people to perceive the incident.Chris said:
In that case you shouldn't mislead people by describing something as "accepted fact" when it's nonsense.kle4 said:
I'm not the one deciding specific rsial.Chris said:
Perhaps you should try to distinguish "accepted fact" from ludicrous stuff g.kle4 said:
Won't matter. I've only followed the story on here, but from the sounds of it it has already become accepted fact that they did it. Heck, .SouthamObserver said:
God knows why. Some people like Johnson for reasons g it.isam said:
They left posters on his car saying "We dont want him as a Neighbour, let alone PM", or words to that effect, so I think you should review your allegation that there is not a shred of evidence.SouthamObserver said:
I think you want it to be true because you have decided without a shred of evidence that the people who reported Johnson have been involved in a campaign against him.
But why would I want it to be true?
This site used to be a place where reliable information could be found. Evidently not any more.
Its perhaps the case I could have been clearer. But before you condescend about it you might get your own facts right about what I said. Instead you condemn me for something I did not say.
So rather than this place not providing reliable Information how about you look in the mirror and not look a fool for accusing me of peddling information when I was not.
For christ sake my whole point was people are accepting something as fact which might not be, and you take that as me saying it is fact? Idiot.
You have as much access to information in the public domain as anyone else.
No one on pb.com has any private sources of information on the behaviour of all Boris' neighbours. And if they did, I'd be worried .0 -
Once any party gets over 20% it is almost guaranteed at least 50 MPs even with no campaigning at all and even under FPTP.The_Taxman said:
+1malcolmg said:
LOL. you would have to be seriously deranged to imagine Brexit Party getting 219 MP's. Farage only managed only last time and that was a defection. Dream on.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Labour 253, Brexit Party 219, Tories 58, LDs 57, SNP 42.CarlottaVance said:
So only a Labour plus SNP plus LDs coalition has the numbers for a majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=20&LAB=26&LIB=16&Brexit=23&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
I dont think he understands incumbency, local party machines, national campaigns and FPTP dynamics in general. He might have a point if elected MPs by PR but it is just fantasy all his views on polls!
With all parties less than 30% the Brexit Party would get significantly more than that0 -
Yes, this confuses me.alex. said:So if the next PM fails to deliver Brexit by 31October, but delivers it by, say 30th April does anyone really think that Brexit supporters would punish them for it?
Say the EU said to Boris: "Yes, we are prepared to renegotiate the backstop", does he say "No! Hah! Idiots, we have to leave by October 31 anyway. Hah!"0 -
As a Con suppprter but not member I'm torn on who I want.
I much prefer Hunt's policies and he's far more sensible and thoughtful. Would make a much better PM.
But I just feel he won't be able to get Brexit done and he'll therefore end up in same position as TMay - but there will inevitably end up having to be a GE (even if only in say approx 12 months from now) and Con will therefore lose due to not delivering Brexit.
So much as I don't really want him I feel Boris is the only chance of blocking Corbyn - because if he can't get Brexit through and No Deal gets blocked by the Commons then he'll go for an immediate GE - which he might well win - on clear Brexit message, assisted by honeymoon.0 -
Maybe they're just normal individuals who were genuinely concerned for the safety of Johnson's girlfriend.MarkHopkins said:SouthamObserver said:You can bet your bottom dollar that the Guido crew will have been trawling through every possible source to try to get some dirt on the people who called the police about the Johnson row and recorded it. They still don't seem to have found anything.
And?
And are p*ssed off that he keeps parking illegally in their parking spaces.0 -
When the facts change I change my mind.rcs1000 said:
Yes, this confuses me.alex. said:So if the next PM fails to deliver Brexit by 31October, but delivers it by, say 30th April does anyone really think that Brexit supporters would punish them for it?
Say the EU said to Boris: "Yes, we are prepared to renegotiate the backstop", does he say "No! Hah! Idiots, we have to leave by October 31 anyway. Hah!"
If the EU say that I think Boris will (rightly) claim that as a victory and reason to extend just in order to renegotiate that.0 -
0
-
Genuine concern explains calling the Police.alex. said:
Maybe they're just normal individuals who were genuinely concerned for the safety of Johnson's girlfriend.MarkHopkins said:SouthamObserver said:You can bet your bottom dollar that the Guido crew will have been trawling through every possible source to try to get some dirt on the people who called the police about the Johnson row and recorded it. They still don't seem to have found anything.
And?
And are p*ssed off that he keeps parking illegally in their parking spaces.
Not the Guardian.0 -
Have you not noticed the country is divided down the middle and the Tories are behind in the polls. A GE will just mean more paralysis and division for the country, it is unlikely to result in any majority for Brexit or Remain, Tory or Labour.MikeL said:As a Con suppprter but not member I'm torn on who I want.
I much prefer Hunt's policies and he's far more sensible and thoughtful. Would make a much better PM.
But I just feel he won't be able to get Brexit done and he'll therefore end up in same position as TMay - but there will inevitably end up having to be a GE (even if only in say approx 12 months from now) and Con will therefore lose due to not delivering Brexit.
So much as I don't really want him I feel Boris is the only chance of blocking Corbyn - because if he can't get Brexit through and No Deal gets blocked by the Commons then he'll go for an immediate GE - which he might well win - on clear Brexit message, assisted by honeymoon.0 -
Against Boris no, against Hunt maybe if he extends againmalcolmg said:
In reality though , when it comes to it and you have Farage and a bunch of loonies standing , do you seriously think they will get over 20%HYUFD said:
Once they get over 20% the Brexit Party get a lot more seats for their buck, even in 2015 UKIP only got 12%.malcolmg said:
LOL. you would have to be seriously deranged to imagine Brexit Party getting 219 MP's. Farage only managed only last time and that was a defection. Dream on.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives Labour 253, Brexit Party 219, Tories 58, LDs 57, SNP 42.CarlottaVance said:
So only a Labour plus SNP plus LDs coalition has the numbers for a majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=20&LAB=26&LIB=16&Brexit=23&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Plus if Boris does not win I am not sure Hunt is strong enough to hold off Farage and Corbyn0 -
That was where the second bit came in...Philip_Thompson said:
Genuine concern explains calling the Police.alex. said:
Maybe they're just normal individuals who were genuinely concerned for the safety of Johnson's girlfriend.MarkHopkins said:SouthamObserver said:You can bet your bottom dollar that the Guido crew will have been trawling through every possible source to try to get some dirt on the people who called the police about the Johnson row and recorded it. They still don't seem to have found anything.
And?
And are p*ssed off that he keeps parking illegally in their parking spaces.
Not the Guardian.0 -
Overhearing a Policeman calling it 'Restricted' might explain calling the Guardian, if they were of the view that the character of a future Prime Minister was in the public interest.....Philip_Thompson said:
Genuine concern explains calling the Police.alex. said:
Maybe they're just normal individuals who were genuinely concerned for the safety of Johnson's girlfriend.MarkHopkins said:SouthamObserver said:You can bet your bottom dollar that the Guido crew will have been trawling through every possible source to try to get some dirt on the people who called the police about the Johnson row and recorded it. They still don't seem to have found anything.
And?
And are p*ssed off that he keeps parking illegally in their parking spaces.
Not the Guardian.0 -
The Sun seeing a route back to popularity in Liverpool...?CarlottaVance said:Has Boris lost The Sun?
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142474910998155264
0 -
He asked how long left, Dale said 10 minutes and Boris replied 'superb'CarlottaVance said:Has Boris lost The Sun?
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/11424749109981552640 -
Not how The Sun is reporting it....HYUFD said:
He asked how long left, Dale said 10 minutes snd Boris replied 'superb'CarlottaVance said:Has Boris lost The Sun?
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142474910998155264
The lead:
TORY leader hopeful Boris Johnson was accused of being "bored" in today's hustings - as he asked how much time was left on his grilling.
As he took questions from the audience of Conservative Party members in Birmingham he appeared to want to wrap things up, amid some stinging reminders of past gaffes.0 -
No that was exactly what the Sun reported, if you had actually bothered to read to the 4th paragraph.CarlottaVance said:
Not how The Sun is reporting it....HYUFD said:
He asked how long left, Dale said 10 minutes snd Boris replied 'superb'CarlottaVance said:Has Boris lost The Sun?
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142474910998155264
Stop spreading 'fake news' like the Guardian
0 -
Journalists have to at least try and make this leadership contest seem interesting, though I don't think any claims of Huntmania will really take off.0
-
We can but hopeCarlottaVance said:Has Boris lost The Sun?
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/11424749109981552640 -
Missing the yearCarlottaVance said:
That's an unequivocal Oct 31.....more than he said in the hustings.HYUFD said: 0 -
You wrote: He asked how long left, Dale said 10 minutes snd Boris replied 'superb'HYUFD said:
No that was exactly what the Sun reported.CarlottaVance said:
Not how The Sun is reporting it....HYUFD said:
He asked how long left, Dale said 10 minutes snd Boris replied 'superb'CarlottaVance said:Has Boris lost The Sun?
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142474910998155264
The Sun wrote:
After being told he had to sit in the hot seat for less than 10 minutes more he quipped "superb", before he was asked if he was bored.
I wouldn't call that 'exactly'.
Who is spreading 'Fake News'?
Your "spin" and the The Sun's are rather different....0 -
With all due respect that's is rubbish.isam said:
I don't think that is true, it would be just the same if a couple of Corbyn haters had taped him and his wife having a row and shared it with an anti Corbyn paper.OllyT said:
Likewise everyone expressing outrage that Johnson's privacy has been invaded would be saying the exact opposite if the incident had involved Corbynisam said:
In contemporary politics, every side thinks they are the only sane ones. Quite awful really, diversity of opinion is not allowed, all dissenters are mentally ill or dupes.Scott_P said:The cult of BoZo is every bit as mad as the cult of Corbyn.
These things follow the same pattern. Something gets reported and within a short space of time people concoct an alternative narrative to suit their own political agenda.
The Johnson row is not a big deal but doesn't show him in a particularly good light as the next PM either. Instead of shrugging it off we now seem to being told that Johnson is actually the victim of people who hate him, have wrecked his car, used high tech surveillance, are in cahoots with the Guardian, the police and so it goes on. Before the day I'm sure we will be told that the Labour Party were behind it all.
The same with the Mark Field story, instead of accepting it was a stupid overreaction which the MP to his credit seems to have done and apologised, he is now portrayed as some sort of hero who thwarted a potential terrorist attack and saved dozens of lives.
It's what's so bl**y depressing about politics in the Trump era, truth has ceased to actual matter much anymore. Nobody waits for facts to emerge they just speculate and within a short space of time the "speculation" is reported as "fact".
The fault, IMHO, lies with social media where the most important thing is to get your version of events out there first, as long as it's plausible the fatcs don't actually matter. It's not going to change, it's going to get worse.
IIRC It's what led to one PBer trying to tell us that the Jo Cox murder was a false flag operation.0 -
Keep spreading that 'fake news'CarlottaVance said:
You wrote: He asked how long left, Dale said 10 minutes snd Boris replied 'superb'HYUFD said:
No that was exactly what the Sun reported.CarlottaVance said:
Not how The Sun is reporting it....HYUFD said:
He asked how long left, Dale said 10 minutes snd Boris replied 'superb'CarlottaVance said:Has Boris lost The Sun?
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142474910998155264
The Sun wrote:
After being told he had to sit in the hot seat for less than 10 minutes more he quipped "superb", before he was asked if he was bored.
I wouldn't call that 'exactly'.0 -
Six off Bumrah is pretty impressive.
Afghanistan probably won’t quite make it, but a superb challenge to the cricketing superpower, whatever the outcome.0 -
Which of us quoted the Sun accurately, and who did not?HYUFD said:
Keep spreading that 'fake news'CarlottaVance said:
You wrote: He asked how long left, Dale said 10 minutes snd Boris replied 'superb'HYUFD said:
No that was exactly what the Sun reported.CarlottaVance said:
Not how The Sun is reporting it....HYUFD said:
He asked how long left, Dale said 10 minutes snd Boris replied 'superb'CarlottaVance said:Has Boris lost The Sun?
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142474910998155264
The Sun wrote:
After being told he had to sit in the hot seat for less than 10 minutes more he quipped "superb", before he was asked if he was bored.
I wouldn't call that 'exactly'.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9352789/boris-johnson-bored-tory-grilling/
Readers can make their own minds up.....unless you have a link to a Sun article with your version?0 -
I hate to be the one to break this to you. But opinion polls are not facts.HYUFD said:Some inconvenient facts diehard Remainers need to face.
As Yougov showed yesterday if the Withdrawal Agreement is passed by October 31st and we have left the EU by then then either a Boris led Tory Party or a Hunt led Tories will win an overall majority (or on a platform to leave by October 31st) and we move towards a FTA for GB and likely still the backstop for Northern Ireland ultimately maybe with a confirmatory referendum.
If we have not left the EU by October 31st then as Yougov also showed Farage and the Brexit Party would either win an overall Commons majority at the next general election with a Hunt led Tories falling to just 17 seats or the Brexit Party would be largest party in the Commons against a Boris led Tory Party on a Brexit with No Deal platform.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-0 -
You do know that putting fake news in quote marks undermines the suggestion that the news really is fake.HYUFD said:
Keep spreading that 'fake news'CarlottaVance said:
You wrote: He asked how long left, Dale said 10 minutes snd Boris replied 'superb'HYUFD said:
No that was exactly what the Sun reported.CarlottaVance said:
Not how The Sun is reporting it....HYUFD said:
He asked how long left, Dale said 10 minutes snd Boris replied 'superb'CarlottaVance said:Has Boris lost The Sun?
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142474910998155264
The Sun wrote:
After being told he had to sit in the hot seat for less than 10 minutes more he quipped "superb", before he was asked if he was bored.
I wouldn't call that 'exactly'.0 -
Many have tried; many have failed.Cyclefree said:
I hate to be the one to break this to you. But opinion polls are not facts.HYUFD said:Some inconvenient facts diehard Remainers need to face.
As Yougov showed yesterday if the Withdrawal Agreement is passed by October 31st and we have left the EU by then then either a Boris led Tory Party or a Hunt led Tories will win an overall majority (or on a platform to leave by October 31st) and we move towards a FTA for GB and likely still the backstop for Northern Ireland ultimately maybe with a confirmatory referendum.
If we have not left the EU by October 31st then as Yougov also showed Farage and the Brexit Party would either win an overall Commons majority at the next general election with a Hunt led Tories falling to just 17 seats or the Brexit Party would be largest party in the Commons against a Boris led Tory Party on a Brexit with No Deal platform.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-0 -
They are factual surveys of public opinion at the time, you can speculate about what the future may be but that is a different matterCyclefree said:
I hate to be the one to break this to you. But opinion polls are not facts.HYUFD said:Some inconvenient facts diehard Remainers need to face.
As Yougov showed yesterday if the Withdrawal Agreement is passed by October 31st and we have left the EU by then then either a Boris led Tory Party or a Hunt led Tories will win an overall majority (or on a platform to leave by October 31st) and we move towards a FTA for GB and likely still the backstop for Northern Ireland ultimately maybe with a confirmatory referendum.
If we have not left the EU by October 31st then as Yougov also showed Farage and the Brexit Party would either win an overall Commons majority at the next general election with a Hunt led Tories falling to just 17 seats or the Brexit Party would be largest party in the Commons against a Boris led Tory Party on a Brexit with No Deal platform.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-0 -
I can't speak for @SouthamObserver, but I do find the instinct of the Tory press to assassinate the character of anybody who dares speaks out about their widdle heroes actually depressing.MarkHopkins said:
And?SouthamObserver said:You can bet your bottom dollar that the Guido crew will have been trawling through every possible source to try to get some dirt on the people who called the police about the Johnson row and recorded it. They still don't seem to have found anything.
0 -
I doubt he’d have a security detail - but the police might want to “restrict” information on his whereabouts to an unverified caller?JosiasJessop said:
They almost certainly will have different security procedures to us plebs (not counting you in that, Charles). That doesn't mean they are free to not tell the truth about such matters.Charles said:
Although I would assume that potential threat targets (eg royals, likely prime ministers, etc) might have different security procedures to the rest of us?JosiasJessop said:
AIUI (might be wrong), they initially denied it, until the Guardian gave them details of the vehicles that attended. They then gave a different story.RobD said:
Haven’t they already confirmed they attended a call, and no arrests were made?Scott_P said:
If it's correct, that doesn't seem a good thing for the police to be doing.
That's a question: what sort of security would the state be giving an MP who is an ex cabinet member, yet who is also a candidate to be PM? I can only imagine it is limited - i.e. he won't have a security detail.0 -
Least of all Opinion Polls predicated on hypotheticals any more complicated than "In a General Election tomorrow".....Cyclefree said:
I hate to be the one to break this to you. But opinion polls are not facts.HYUFD said:Some inconvenient facts diehard Remainers need to face.
As Yougov showed yesterday if the Withdrawal Agreement is passed by October 31st and we have left the EU by then then either a Boris led Tory Party or a Hunt led Tories will win an overall majority (or on a platform to leave by October 31st) and we move towards a FTA for GB and likely still the backstop for Northern Ireland ultimately maybe with a confirmatory referendum.
If we have not left the EU by October 31st then as Yougov also showed Farage and the Brexit Party would either win an overall Commons majority at the next general election with a Hunt led Tories falling to just 17 seats or the Brexit Party would be largest party in the Commons against a Boris led Tory Party on a Brexit with No Deal platform.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-0 -
You completely omitted the Boris line 'superb' until I mentioned itCarlottaVance said:
Which of us quoted the Sun accurately, and who did not?HYUFD said:
Keep spreading that 'fake news'CarlottaVance said:
You wrote: He asked how long left, Dale said 10 minutes snd Boris replied 'superb'HYUFD said:
No that was exactly what the Sun reported.CarlottaVance said:
Not how The Sun is reporting it....HYUFD said:
He asked how long left, Dale said 10 minutes snd Boris replied 'superb'CarlottaVance said:Has Boris lost The Sun?
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142474910998155264
The Sun wrote:
After being told he had to sit in the hot seat for less than 10 minutes more he quipped "superb", before he was asked if he was bored.
I wouldn't call that 'exactly'.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9352789/boris-johnson-bored-tory-grilling/
Readers can make their own minds up.....unless you have a link to a Sun article with your version?0 -
Yet any opinion poll putting Remain in the lead in any EUref2 is sacrosanct of course!CarlottaVance said:
Least of all Opinion Polls predicated on hypotheticals any more complicated than "In a General Election tomorrow".....Cyclefree said:
I hate to be the one to break this to you. But opinion polls are not facts.HYUFD said:Some inconvenient facts diehard Remainers need to face.
As Yougov showed yesterday if the Withdrawal Agreement is passed by October 31st and we have left the EU by then then either a Boris led Tory Party or a Hunt led Tories will win an overall majority (or on a platform to leave by October 31st) and we move towards a FTA for GB and likely still the backstop for Northern Ireland ultimately maybe with a confirmatory referendum.
If we have not left the EU by October 31st then as Yougov also showed Farage and the Brexit Party would either win an overall Commons majority at the next general election with a Hunt led Tories falling to just 17 seats or the Brexit Party would be largest party in the Commons against a Boris led Tory Party on a Brexit with No Deal platform.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-0 -
Nah. That same poster made some rather *interesting* claims about the MH17 shootdown. He'd parrot whatever the current Russian line was (and it sometimes changed daily), even when it was obviously and evidently rubbish.OllyT said:
(Snip)
IIRC It's what led to one PBer trying to tell us that the Jo Cox murder was a false flag operation.
Claiming Jo Cox was a false flag operation is perfectly in line with his MO.0 -
But you are stating them to be a factual representation of the outcome of a General Election at a future date? Are you actually conceding that many of your 'facts' are merely speculation?HYUFD said:
They are factual surveys of public opinion at the time, you can speculate about what the future may be but that is a different matterCyclefree said:
I hate to be the one to break this to you. But opinion polls are not facts.HYUFD said:Some inconvenient facts diehard Remainers need to face.
As Yougov showed yesterday if the Withdrawal Agreement is passed by October 31st and we have left the EU by then then either a Boris led Tory Party or a Hunt led Tories will win an overall majority (or on a platform to leave by October 31st) and we move towards a FTA for GB and likely still the backstop for Northern Ireland ultimately maybe with a confirmatory referendum.
If we have not left the EU by October 31st then as Yougov also showed Farage and the Brexit Party would either win an overall Commons majority at the next general election with a Hunt led Tories falling to just 17 seats or the Brexit Party would be largest party in the Commons against a Boris led Tory Party on a Brexit with No Deal platform.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-0 -
No as they are scientific surveys of voters not what you speculate might be the result of a future electionalex. said:
But you are stating them to be a factual representation of the outcome of a General Election at a future date? Are you actually conceding that many of your 'facts' are merely speculation?HYUFD said:
They are factual surveys of public opinion at the time, you can speculate about what the future may be but that is a different matterCyclefree said:
I hate to be the one to break this to you. But opinion polls are not facts.HYUFD said:Some inconvenient facts diehard Remainers need to face.
As Yougov showed yesterday if the Withdrawal Agreement is passed by October 31st and we have left the EU by then then either a Boris led Tory Party or a Hunt led Tories will win an overall majority (or on a platform to leave by October 31st) and we move towards a FTA for GB and likely still the backstop for Northern Ireland ultimately maybe with a confirmatory referendum.
If we have not left the EU by October 31st then as Yougov also showed Farage and the Brexit Party would either win an overall Commons majority at the next general election with a Hunt led Tories falling to just 17 seats or the Brexit Party would be largest party in the Commons against a Boris led Tory Party on a Brexit with No Deal platform.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-0 -
The availability of ‘high tech surveillance’ to the majority of the population is an established fact.OllyT said:
With all due respect that's is rubbish.isam said:
I don't think that is true, it would be just the same if a couple of Corbyn haters had taped him and his wife having a row and shared it with an anti Corbyn paper.OllyT said:
Likewise everyone expressing outrage that Johnson's privacy has been invaded would be saying the exact opposite if the incident had involved Corbynisam said:
In contemporary politics, every side thinks they are the only sane ones. Quite awful really, diversity of opinion is not allowed, all dissenters are mentally ill or dupes.Scott_P said:The cult of BoZo is every bit as mad as the cult of Corbyn.
These things follow the same pattern. Something gets reported and within a short space of time people concoct an alternative narrative to suit their own political agenda.
The Johnson row is not a big deal but doesn't show him in a particularly good light as the next PM either. Instead of shrugging it off we now seem to being told that Johnson is actually the victim of people who hate him, have wrecked his car, used high tech surveillance....
A counterbalancing force to the surveillance state, and to the surveillance of the tech giants ? Or something more sinister ?
The effective gradual abolition of privacy is an insufficiently debated issue.
And the GDPR an inadequate response.
0 -
It was reported that someone - don’t know if the same neighbour - was leaving anti-Brexit posters that featured Boris on his car. That’s passive-aggressive at best!SouthamObserver said:
How do you know that applies in the Johnson case. I know you want it to be true, but how do you know? Do you think those concerned are lying to the Guardian?isam said:
Try living next door to someone who hates you, leaves posters attacking you on your car, and wants to shame you publicly so you wont get a job you're afterSouthamObserver said:
I have been married for 30 years and have had plenty of rows with my wife. Before yesterday I thought it was unremarkable that the police had never been called to investigate. Clearly, though, we are an exception to the rule.Theuniondivvie said:Sean_F said:
I don't even like Boris, but this story is shit. People argue.kjohnw said:
I’m sorry but most couples row, it’s normal , he spilt wine on the sofa , they had a tiff, so what , he hasn’t beaten her up , she may have lost her temper , you wanna year my wife when I’m in the doghouse, this is all so overblown , it’s become a media feeding frenzy over a non event , with politically motivated neighbours who sold the recording to the guardian invading their neighbours basic privacy rights. Why not just call the police if you are so concerned ?? It’s a circus motivated to bring down BorisScott_P said:
It would probably reduce the guff quotient if people who occupy more-or-less the same political area as Boris prefacing their defences of him with 'I don't even like Boris' realised that it isn't convincing anyone.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/22/boris-johnson-neighbour-interview-call-police0 -
You are the one using the polls to predict a future election result.HYUFD said:
No as they are scientific surveys of voters not what you speculate might be the result of a future electionalex. said:
But you are stating them to be a factual representation of the outcome of a General Election at a future date? Are you actually conceding that many of your 'facts' are merely speculation?HYUFD said:
They are factual surveys of public opinion at the time, you can speculate about what the future may be but that is a different matterCyclefree said:
I hate to be the one to break this to you. But opinion polls are not facts.HYUFD said:Some inconvenient facts diehard Remainers need to face.
As Yougov showed yesterday if the Withdrawal Agreement is passed by October 31st and we have left the EU by then then either a Boris led Tory Party or a Hunt led Tories will win an overall majority (or on a platform to leave by October 31st) and we move towards a FTA for GB and likely still the backstop for Northern Ireland ultimately maybe with a confirmatory referendum.
If we have not left the EU by October 31st then as Yougov also showed Farage and the Brexit Party would either win an overall Commons majority at the next general election with a Hunt led Tories falling to just 17 seats or the Brexit Party would be largest party in the Commons against a Boris led Tory Party on a Brexit with No Deal platform.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
0 -
What HYUFD said looks exactly the same as your subsequent reply. What do you think he got wrong?CarlottaVance said:
Which of us quoted the Sun accurately, and who did not?HYUFD said:
Keep spreading that 'fake news'CarlottaVance said:
You wrote: He asked how long left, Dale said 10 minutes snd Boris replied 'superb'HYUFD said:
No that was exactly what the Sun reported.CarlottaVance said:
Not how The Sun is reporting it....HYUFD said:
He asked how long left, Dale said 10 minutes snd Boris replied 'superb'CarlottaVance said:Has Boris lost The Sun?
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142474910998155264
The Sun wrote:
After being told he had to sit in the hot seat for less than 10 minutes more he quipped "superb", before he was asked if he was bored.
I wouldn't call that 'exactly'.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9352789/boris-johnson-bored-tory-grilling/
Readers can make their own minds up.....unless you have a link to a Sun article with your version?
Though I'm also not sure what point HYUFD was making by bringing it up at all0 -
They are pissed off that he keeps parking illegally, in spots reserved for them and they pay for, because he's so rich that he couldn't care less about all the parking tickets he gets.Charles said:
It was reported that someone - don’t know if the same neighbour - was leaving anti-Brexit posters that featured Boris on his car. That’s passive-aggressive at best!SouthamObserver said:
How do you know that applies in the Johnson case. I know you want it to be true, but how do you know? Do you think those concerned are lying to the Guardian?isam said:
Try living next door to someone who hates you, leaves posters attacking you on your car, and wants to shame you publicly so you wont get a job you're afterSouthamObserver said:
I have been married for 30 years and have had plenty of rows with my wife. Before yesterday I thought it was unremarkable that the police had never been called to investigate. Clearly, though, we are an exception to the rule.Theuniondivvie said:Sean_F said:
I don't even like Boris, but this story is shit. People argue.kjohnw said:
I’m sorry but most couples row, it’s normal , he spilt wine on the sofa , they had a tiff, so what , he hasn’t beaten her up , she may have lost her temper , you wanna year my wife when I’m in the doghouse, this is all so overblown , it’s become a media feeding frenzy over a non event , with politically motivated neighbours who sold the recording to the guardian invading their neighbours basic privacy rights. Why not just call the police if you are so concerned ?? It’s a circus motivated to bring down BorisScott_P said:
It would probably reduce the guff quotient if people who occupy more-or-less the same political area as Boris prefacing their defences of him with 'I don't even like Boris' realised that it isn't convincing anyone.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/22/boris-johnson-neighbour-interview-call-police0 -
That’s what I suspect... she wasn’t ready to kiss & make up...Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps Boris was just being playful, his shimmering hands poised for a bit of slap 'n' tickle.Alistair said:
Did she ever shout at you to get off her?SouthamObserver said:
I have been married for 30 years and have had plenty of rows with my wife. Before yesterday I thought it was unremarkable that the police had never been called to investigate. Clearly, though, we are an exception to the rule.Theuniondivvie said:Sean_F said:
I don't even like Boris, but this story is shit. People argue.kjohnw said:
I’m sorry but most couples row, it’s normal , he spilt wine on the sofa , they had a tiff, so what , he hasn’t beaten her up , she may have lost her temper , you wanna year my wife when I’m in the doghouse, this is all so overblown , it’s become a media feeding frenzy over a non event , with politically motivated neighbours who sold the recording to the guardian invading their neighbours basic privacy rights. Why not just call the police if you are so concerned ?? It’s a circus motivated to bring down BorisScott_P said:
It would probably reduce the guff quotient if people who occupy more-or-less the same political area as Boris prefacing their defences of him with 'I don't even like Boris' realised that it isn't convincing anyone.0 -
If there is a genuine security need, then it should be 'no comment' rather than a straight 'no'. Besides, the caller already knew who was involved, and the address.Charles said:
I doubt he’d have a security detail - but the police might want to “restrict” information on his whereabouts to an unverified caller?JosiasJessop said:
They almost certainly will have different security procedures to us plebs (not counting you in that, Charles). That doesn't mean they are free to not tell the truth about such matters.Charles said:
Although I would assume that potential threat targets (eg royals, likely prime ministers, etc) might have different security procedures to the rest of us?JosiasJessop said:
AIUI (might be wrong), they initially denied it, until the Guardian gave them details of the vehicles that attended. They then gave a different story.RobD said:
Haven’t they already confirmed they attended a call, and no arrests were made?Scott_P said:
If it's correct, that doesn't seem a good thing for the police to be doing.
That's a question: what sort of security would the state be giving an MP who is an ex cabinet member, yet who is also a candidate to be PM? I can only imagine it is limited - i.e. he won't have a security detail.
"The press office responded asking for more information, adding: “I’ve checked call lists for both Lambeth and Southwark and I can’t see any calls to [street name] for this time."
"Later, the press office responded, saying: “We have no knowledge of a domestic incident at that location. If you have more information about the nature of the call, please let us know.”"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/22/scotland-yard-press-operation-faces-questions-over-boris-johnson-row0
