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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit: Some Inconvenient Facts that the Tories need to face
“A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep” – Saul Bellow
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As Yougov showed yesterday if the Withdrawal Agreement is passed by October 31st and we have left the EU by then then either a Boris led Tory Party or a Hunt led Tories will win an overall majority (or on a platform to leave by October 31st) and we move towards a FTA for GB and likely still the backstop for Northern Ireland ultimately maybe with a confirmatory referendum.
If we have not left the EU by October 31st then as Yougov also showed Farage and the Brexit Party would either win an overall Commons majority at the next general election with a Hunt led Tories falling to just 17 seats or the Brexit Party would be largest party in the Commons against a Boris led Tory Party on a Brexit with No Deal platform.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
The House of Commons will not permit No Deal. If it comes to it, they will vote down the Government.
In terms of the EU, the moment they see a VONC succeed they will extend Article 50. They will then await the result of a General Election.
I remember some months ago being assured on here many times that Parliament couldn't prevent No Deal. I told you then this was nonsense. It remains nonsense.
That won't stop the likes of HUYFD living in their fantasy world. Speaking of which, does Bill Cash still think we left the EU on March 31st?!
Axiom 11 seems quite sound to me. It is unknowable.
The lengthy list leaves out a central issue: assuming Boris wins can he get to the starting gate of forming a stable government and winning an early VONC? I think there must be a bit of doubt. The DUP are not reliable, and he would only need a small number of implacable foes on his own side to be defeated. Could this become an issue in the campaign between Hunt and Boris?
https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/business-faq-page/recess-dates/
This means MPs will not be able to no-confidence the new Prime Minister, Boris, Hunt or Corbyn, and will have limited time to block no-deal Brexit (assuming either Boris or Hunt really wants that, which is open to doubt).
Yours is exactly the type of tunnel vision that led the Tories to believe in 2017 that all they had to do was call an election and their 20% poll lead would be magically transformed into a 3 figure majority. How did that work out?
If the Commons refuses to respect the Leave vote then as Yougov showed yesterday Leavers will elect a new Commons that will whether that requires PM Boris or PM Farage they do not care, they will not rest and they will not stop until they get the Brexit they voted for
Likewise nobody will vote for a Boris de Pfiffel-led Tory Party.
Your hopes lies in shatters, Mr HY.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
1. The Brexit Party had a pretty good candidate, and it was excellent timing. They didn't do it. The Brexit Party will not get (m)any MPS in a GE.
2. Jazza's fudge tasted fine. Corbyn played it right, whereas Starmer would have lost Posh.
By Afghanistan.
The Brexit Party won a landslide in the European Parliament elections.
You have declared war on Leavers and Leavers are about to declare war back.
Boris or Farage will be their commanding officer, prepare for war!
5th September to October 15th is six weeks. More than ample time for a Vote of No Confidence.
We had all this guff before about Parliament 'not being able to prevent No Deal / Brexit blah blah.'
They did. And they will.
Precisely.
Plus the police are now investigating fraud in Peterborough
They had a lot of breaks -- great timing, and a pretty plausible local candidate in a Leave voting seat where the previous MP was hauled off to jail.
They didn't do it, even when they had all the breaks. They didn't do it.
There are not going to be 100 Brexit Party MPs after the GE. There are not going to be 10. I'll be surprised if there is even 1.
Is there an election that UKIP or the BXP ever met or beat their pre-election polling?
As I recall the Europolling was for BXP to be 35-40%, until the actual vote.
Let's simplify things. Start from the position that EU negotiating elite have no intention of making any concessions before the UK leaves. Their goal has all along been to keep the UK in the EU while offering next to nothing, and the outcome they want to avoid is the UK leaving without a deal. They realise that in a month's time the UK will at last have a PM willing to take the UK out of the EU before a deal is reached, but they think too that there is not a majority in parliament that will allow the PM to do that. So the EU think, probably correctly, that if they double down and continue to offer nothing worth having then the UK will continue in the EU after 31st October.
The consequences of that outcome:
1. The Government would clearly be a lame duck government without a secure working majority. Johnson would be best advised to look to the long term and call an immediate general election on the explicit grounds of delivering a majority capable of delivering Brexit. Let's assume he does so. If so...
2a. The more likely outcome is that the Conservatives would lose seats, opening the way to a Remainer coalition of Labour and Lib Dems which would revoke A50. However, the Conservative Party would not implode and the result would still see off the Brexit Party. That is, Johnson would have been seen to do his best to deliver a Brexit worthy of the name and most Leave voters would recognise that. (The latest YouGov polling is of no value here, because the polling question fails to recognise that scenario.) Furthermore the Conservatives would stay committed to fighting the subsequent GE on a platform to take the UK out of the EU. With the potential for the minority government of Remain parties to be short lived, that election might not be too long coming, bringing with it the prospect of a Conservative government with a sufficient majority to deliver UK withdrawal early in the next decade.
2b. The less likely outcome is that the Conservatives would secure a working parliamentary majority for Leave on a reduced vote share. If so, we will be out by the New Year.
Both of those alternative outcomes (2a and 2b) undermine the premise of the EU's negotiating tactic, namely that there is a parliamentary majority sufficient to prevent the UK leaving without a prior trade agreement being in place. So the final consequence is that:
3. Once a parliamentary majority for Leave is secure, and with a PM willing to pursue "No-Deal" if necessary, the EU will return to the negotiating table. It will this time start with a goal of trying to secure a long term agreement of benefit both the EU and UK, rather than the political goal of trying to avoid the UK leaving.
Best get back in that garden though, Mrs Foxy giving me the beady eye for lingering over lunch.
1. Embellish the existing WA with smoke and mirrors, just as you say. Lots of lovely promises in the political declaration. Fierce proclamations. Disparaging personal attacks on anyone who disagrees. The EU perceives the same old WA through the smoke, rolls its eyes and lets him try.
2. If Parliament passes it, fine. Onwards! Upwards!
3. If Parliament votes it down, call an election. "Enough is enough", "let's get it done", "speak for Britain", etc etc. Boris will gamble that he can win by force of personality. Deselect anyone who dissents, call them something like "nasty nitpicking nonentities". Take on Farage and Corbyn in debate, and deploy bluster.
4. If he wins, fabulous for him. If he loses, oh well, it was fun anyway.
“Tory party employee Marion Little, 63, was given a suspended sentence after being found guilty of two charges.
Little, who had effectively run the 2015 election campaign, was found guilty of two counts of encouraging or assisting an offence, but cleared of a third.
Handing her a nine-month sentence, suspended for two years, the judge said Little had been "carried away by her conviction" that defeating Mr Farage was an "overwhelmingly important political objective".
He said the only reason she was not being given a custodial sentence was because she was caring for her husband, who is terminally ill.“
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-46749743
Overall there's very little to be impressed about from any of the parties.
You must have be his neighbour with the powerful wire-tapping, recording and surveillance equipment !!
Or is the assumption that Johnson is lying about the deadline, and that Macron and others are misleading us about the chances of an extension?
I can't see how the Conservatives will tolerate any more drifting along.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1142399647165685761
He's a complete weirdo, isn't he.
The facts are YoiuGov had
Brex 23%, Lib Dem 21%, Lab 20%, Con 20% (18-19 June)
On those it could just as well (and probably more likely be) PM Corbyn or PM Swinson (or Davey).
The Brexit they voted for was a 52:48 Brexit, indicating a soft as possible Brexit - and since then they have deprived the Brexit pursuing Tories of their majority and swung against Brexit (according to the polls).
No one at Westminster cares, no one in the country cares (except you I guess). It will shift precisely zero votes.
If you want to be effective, suggest you find a new line of attack
Their on-topic date of Brexit market goes 6/4 2019, and 1/2 not before 2020.
Your response to a general election result you don’t like is to encourage arson and revolution?
Is that official party policy?
Is that really the best you can come up. None of that explains why your prediction was so completely and utterly wrong.
Unionist politicians do, but a significant number of Unionist voters are not as absolute.
A view sometimes echoed by the PB LibDems.
What then? The WA will not get through even with smoke and mirrors (DUP/ERG).
So a GE where anything could happen.
Success for TBP may mean a No Deal Brexit.
Success for the LibDems may mean Revoke.
In both cases in conjunction with one of what we used to call 'the two main parties'.
It is rather odd that a party that claims to be about ensuring democracy is a lifetime dictatorship.
Was not Keynes but C P Scott of The Manchester Guardian
Here are some more facts.
1. Ireland do not want No Deal.
2. The EU do not want No Deal.
3. The sole purpose of the backstop is to prevent a potential future No Deal.
4. The EU don't believe the UK will go to No Deal at the moment.
Keynes famously said when the facts change, I change my mind. In order to change CycleFree's Fact 2, we need to change my Fact 4 (related to CycleFree's Facts 13 and 14).
Of course, that was quite a while ago. In fact, it was as distant in time to now as now is to a general election if the Tory winner calls one immediately and it goes through the House.
So why should the poll you cite be any closer to opinion then than the poll I cite is to opinion now? feel free to use both sides of the paper in your reply (or, more likely, to ignore the question as not fitting your worldview)
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1281548895347958
The banks are safe
Nothing is happening in Rotherham
Nothing is wrong at Stafford hospital
Elections in Tower Hamlets are fair
Kids Company is a deserving charity
The government is "paying down Britain's debts" and has "halved the bill"
Annual migration from Eastern Europe will be five to ten thousand
Net immigration will be reduced to the tens of thousands
A Leave win will be followed by an immediate year long recession
The accounts of X provide a true and fair view
I'm sure I've forgotten many others.
Perhaps the system has delegitmised itself.
Those are the causes of the damage done to civic structures, Farage is merely a consequence.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1142433485359112193?s=20
After 10 overs India have already conceded 12.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2014/01/taki-step-outside-mr-saatchi/
Con - Average 11.75; achieved 9.1 (underperformed by 2.65)
Lab - Average 19.25; achieved 14.1 (underperformed by 5.15)
LD - Average 16.13; achieved 20.3 (overperformed by 4.17)
Green - Average 8.25; achieved 12.1 (overperformed by 3.85)
Brexit - Average 33.25; achieved 31.6 (underperformed by 1.65)
They did indeed underperform, if not be a considerable amount.
You can even get apps for it.
https://www.thenoiseapp.com/#/
It might just be that this neighbour had had problems before the happy couple moved in.