politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brecon & Radnorshire: the by-election that never was?

Sean_F said:

isam said:

EPG said:

isam said:

nichomar said:

isam said:

Scott_P said:

FrankBooth said:

Simple question. Why do Tory members trust Boris?

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1142151102357524480

So obvious this was a stitch up by the neighbours.

https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1142186051257155584?s=21

How could the neighbours cause the couple to have a row? Where is the stitch up?

Neighbours who plaster anti Boris posters with EU stars on all over his car, then record his activity and call the police who find all is well and no case to answer, then give the story the Guardian, obviously have an agenda to try and subvert the Leadership race. Hopefully they’ll be done for wasting police time

"Subvert" the race by citing things that actually happened, is a bit close to the modern meaning of "fake news".

What did the police say they found at the scene?

No case to answer and both people fine.

The neighbours called them to get the headline in the paper, don’t let partisanship blind you to that

This is a non-story.

But, a very profitable one.

Assuming he doesn't quit or blow himself up in the next 4 weeks it's allowed me to leverage another £110 of profit on Boris.

notme2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

There's yer Home Office with its wee rainbow flag asking us to celebrate Windrush Day.

Heartwarming.

https://twitter.com/ukhomeoffice/status/1142333901513211905

please save us from woke wankery by public institutions.

Beyond parody. By Monday they will be back to kicking in these people's doors and trying to deport them.

Charles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

IanB2 said:

Carrie has about a fortnight to spill the truth about the real Johnson, and set herself up with the proceeds of her story. Even that being a possibility ought to influence the betting.

Perhaps, perhaps not. We must assume the couple still have feelings for each other but in any case, voters have already priced in Boris's colourful and at times disreputable private life.

The other neighbours (not the ones that were so concerned they recorded the row and went to the Guardian with it) said that Carrie was screaming and Boris was much quieter

Maybe Boris has been a naughty boy again and she was searching the laptop for evidence?

rottenborough said:

Anyone else having a problem with the PB site?

Every time I type a letter the whole screen flashes and reloads. Same if I move the mouse within the PB comment area.

I am using Chrome on Apple.

I am having problems - the site loads but no posts are visible. This is on Edge. I have now logged in on Firefox and everything is OK.

notme2 said:

A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Roger said:

I read your tip that Brecon and Radnor wouldn't get the 10%. If you're trying to compete with me for PB's worst tipster you've still got a long way to go.

I said it was a large, rural constituency, and it was not obvious that the recall would succeed. I also said I would not have signed the petition.

The size of the recall vote is impressive, but I think it is national circumstances rather than Davies' malfeasance that has caused it.

I can certainly tip Davies to lose if he stands again. Will the Tories be dumb enough to choose him again?

Does the choice depend on the central party for a by-election or on the Local Association?

I can't see any Recall Petition EVER failing. And it will NEVER have anything to do with personal conduct. The opponents just see it as a free go and round up the votes. They are a really bad idea. Seems to me that the previous situation was much fairer.

Recall Petitions are a stunt - bad governance. Referendums were introduced for the same reason. Wise people saw the risks of referendums imposed on the UK system. It is interesting that the ones who are really furious about the result are those who most strongly demanded their grafting into the system.

We now have "serious" people advocating Citizen's Councils where the "right sort" of people confirm the views of the "right sort" of people in refusing to allow the rest to have any say. Lest you think this is acceptable these are the people who would take the vote off those who don't share their own "sensible" view.

Rory Stewart was the most dangerous man ever to apply to be PM, in my view more dangerous than Jeremy Corbyn.

We have quite active Greens demanding citizens assemblies at local authority levels for their climate emergencies. No one seems to have the courage to tell them their councils and parliaments are properly constituted citizens assemblies.

Of course you are quite right. These things will be populated almost entirely with people who have the 'correct' view on most things. Which is why they want them.

I guess you already know and dont care but the point of citizens assemblies is that they take party politics out of the equation by electing randomly rather than through party selection. The idea being people respond and work together as individuals not what they are told to do by whips. So whether they are a good or bad thing, it is clear they are very different from parliament.

Max seems to be rowing back on his decision to "quit Britain" if Boris becomes PM

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/history-will-wonder-how-we-trusted-boris-with-britain/

Has anyone famous ever followed through with a threat to "quit" the country if someone they don't like becomes PM?

NickPalmer said:

kinabalu said:

I'm not thinking full-on Remain necessarily.

"We will seek to negotiate a better deal with the EU. One that protects jobs and workers' rights and ...

We will then put that deal to the British people in a confirmatory referendum with the other option being to Remain.

We will allow Labour members and MPs to campaign for whichever option they personally support."

Yes, that's where I expect us to end up. It's a perfectly reasonable position IMO (much better than "we'll try to negotiate a deal and then we'll campaign against it in a referendum", which is just ridiculous), though it may suffer from not being an extreme position in a polarised country.

This seems like a blindingly obvious position to take to me, what I'm scratching my head about is why Labour is taking so long to get there, when:

1) The number of Leave voters impressed by the remaining ambiguity must be statistically indistinguishable from zero
2) Corbyn's main USP for people who weren't hard-left was as a straight-talker, and every time he goes on telly to defend the current triangulation he looks like a weasel

GIN1138 said:

Max seems to be rowing back on his decision to "quit Britain" if Boris becomes PM

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/history-will-wonder-how-we-trusted-boris-with-britain/

Has anyone famous ever followed through with a threat to "quit" the country if someone they don't like becomes PM?

Not that I ever heard of.

houndtang said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

YBarddCwsc said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.

Mmm.

But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.

Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.

1st.

Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.

Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage

Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.

My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.



Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.

And Corby will talk about inequality.

Yes, Corbyn will try the same strategy as last time and hedge his bets.

However it runs the risk of Labour being squeezed by the LDs in Remain areas and the Brexit Party and Boris in Leave areas but he can say talking about other things while being non commital on Brexit boosted Labour in 2017 so he will do so again

We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.

Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.

To the extent the LDs and Greens have no chance winning Leave seats like Wigan, Bolsover and Dagenham and Ashfield, only Labour do, correct

Can I ask - what does HYUFD stand for?

I’m curious, too.
Have your ultimate fantasy delivered ?

Nigelb said:

houndtang said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

YBarddCwsc said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.

Mmm.

But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.

Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.

1st.

Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.

Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage

Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.

My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.



Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.

And Corby will talk about inequality.

Yes, Corbyn will try the same strategy as last time and hedge his bets.

However it runs the risk of Labour being squeezed by the LDs in Remain areas and the Brexit Party and Boris in Leave areas but he can say talking about other things while being non commital on Brexit boosted Labour in 2017 so he will do so again

We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.

Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.

To the extent the LDs and Greens have no chance winning Leave seats like Wigan, Bolsover and Dagenham and Ashfield, only Labour do, correct

Can I ask - what does HYUFD stand for?

I’m curious, too.
Have your ultimate fantasy delivered ?

Has young unicorns for dinner?

NickPalmer said:

Yes, that's where I expect us to end up. It's a perfectly reasonable position IMO (much better than "we'll try to negotiate a deal and then we'll campaign against it in a referendum", which is just ridiculous), though it may suffer from not being an extreme position in a polarised country.

And that, for me, will classify as THE PIVOT. I don't think that Labour Remainers can reasonably ask for or expect more.

The key thing is that a Referendum with Remain as an option is offered. This ought to be enough for Remainers to flock to in great numbers. It's how Brexit gets canned since I'm confident that such a Referendum, Soft Leave vs Remain, would go to Remain.

Interesting question is, if Labour win as largest party needing SNP and LD support to govern, would they be able to anything of much significance EXCEPT cancel Brexit? Certainly much of the Corbynite agenda would be seem to be off limits.

Socialism deferred indefinitely?

houndtang said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

YBarddCwsc said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.

Mmm.

But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.

Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.

1st.

Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.

Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage

Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.

My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.

Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.

Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.

And Corby will talk about inequality.

Yes, Corbyn will try the same strategy as last time and hedge his bets.

However it runs the risk of Labour being squeezed by the LDs in Remain areas and the Brexit Party and Boris in Leave areas but he can say talking about other things while being non commital on Brexit boosted Labour in 2017 so he will do so again

We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.

Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.

To the extent the LDs and Greens have no chance winning Leave seats like Wigan, Bolsover and Dagenham and Ashfield, only Labour do, correct

Can I ask - what does HYUFD stand for?

Nothing in particular, I first used it about 15 years ago and there is no point changing it now

kinabalu said:

NickPalmer said:

Yes, that's where I expect us to end up. It's a perfectly reasonable position IMO (much better than "we'll try to negotiate a deal and then we'll campaign against it in a referendum", which is just ridiculous), though it may suffer from not being an extreme position in a polarised country.

And that, for me, will classify as THE PIVOT. I don't think that Labour Remainers can reasonably ask for or expect more.

The key thing is that a Referendum with Remain as an option is offered. This ought to be enough for Remainers to flock to in great numbers. It's how Brexit gets canned since I'm confident that such a Referendum, Soft Leave vs Remain, would go to Remain.

Interesting question is, if Labour win as largest party needing SNP and LD support to govern, would they be able to anything of much significance EXCEPT cancel Brexit? Certainly much of the Corbynite agenda would be seem to be off limits.

Socialism deferred indefinitely?

But not the next recession.

Sean_F said:

IMHO, if we had a general election now, support for the Conservatives and Labour would move towards the high twenties, and for Lib Dems and TBP, down towards the low teens. Not because of any love for either the Conservatives or Labour, but simply to keep the other one out.

Yes, I can see that too. I do hope we get this autumn election because it will be the most fascinating of modern times. Many different outcomes, radically different impacts on the future direction of the country. Brexit or not? Socialism or small state? End of 2 party politics? Coalition? Majority or another paralytically hung parliament? Phew what a scorcher.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Notme, is he that chap who presided over a century-old economics thinktank going bankrupt?

To me Will Hutton will always be the sexist bore who showed up his lack of intelligence on Christmas University Challenge.

kinabalu said:

Sean_F said:

IMHO, if we had a general election now, support for the Conservatives and Labour would move towards the high twenties, and for Lib Dems and TBP, down towards the low teens. Not because of any love for either the Conservatives or Labour, but simply to keep the other one out.

Yes, I can see that too. I do hope we get this autumn election because it will be the most fascinating of modern times. Many different outcomes, radically different impacts on the future direction of the country. Brexit or not? Socialism or small state? End of 2 party politics? Coalition? Majority or another paralytically hung parliament? Phew what a scorcher.

Who's advocating a small state ???

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

Max seems to be rowing back on his decision to "quit Britain" if Boris becomes PM

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/history-will-wonder-how-we-trusted-boris-with-britain/

Has anyone famous ever followed through with a threat to "quit" the country if someone they don't like becomes PM?

Kevin Spacey moved to London when George W Bush was elected, Tom Jones moved to California during the 1970s Labour government

Paul O'Grady threated to leave in 2015 IIRC, but he is still here AFAIK

nichomar said:

I suppose principles are a thing of the past when political parties based policy on them and left it to the voters to decide

I know, depressing in a way. I guess for Corbyn & Co, because they have just the one shot at power, they will not want to adopt a position on something they consider a second order issue which they think will actively damage their chances of that one shot finding the target.

RH1992 said:

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Max seems to be rowing back on his decision to "quit Britain" if Boris becomes PM

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/history-will-wonder-how-we-trusted-boris-with-britain/

Has anyone famous ever followed through with a threat to "quit" the country if someone they don't like becomes PM?

Not that I ever heard of.

I suppose the Duchess of Sussex did, she did pledge to move to Canada if Trump got in, she just ended up being royalty there and here.

I do wonder if Trump's evident dislike for her has some personal cause, such as her rejecting his repulsive advances.

Sean_F said:

RH1992 said:

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Max seems to be rowing back on his decision to "quit Britain" if Boris becomes PM

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/history-will-wonder-how-we-trusted-boris-with-britain/

Has anyone famous ever followed through with a threat to "quit" the country if someone they don't like becomes PM?

Not that I ever heard of.

I suppose the Duchess of Sussex did, she did pledge to move to Canada if Trump got in, she just ended up being royalty there and here.

I do wonder if Trump's evident dislike for her has some personal cause, such as her rejecting his repulsive advances.

were you there.. how do you know they were repulsive, ?is there proof that it happened?

another_richard said:

Who's advocating a small state ???

Nobody yet. But to go with a No Deal Brexit I would expect this to be the direction of travel for either or both of the Cons and the BP.

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Pre October maybe, post October if the Commons extend again and the EU agrees I would expect the Brexit Party to overtake the Tories and the LDs to overtake Labour as Yougov showed

But not with the pivot. The pivot puts Labour 1st.


OK, that was the last time.

The pivot also loses Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North to the Brexit Party and Boris Tories though and apparently Labour internal polling shows some Remainers will stick with the LDs rather than return to Labour even with the pivot to EUref2

HYUFD - do you genuinely believe BXP could win a General Election with no policies whatsoever? They would be a spoiler to the Tory vote, no more, no less.

Nigelb said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

Charles said:

Nigelb said:

MikeL said:

YouGov poll obviously conducted before last night's revelations.

But even so, shows an incredibly strong position for Johnson....

‘Incredibly’ is indeed borne out by the numbers....

47% Johnson can be trusted
40% Johnson cannot be trusted

52% Hunt can be trusted
31% Hunt cannot be trusted

31% unhappy if Hunt leader as well

Are those the entryists?

No - there isn’t much correlation between unhappy with and cannot be trusted.
About a third of Boris’ support seem quite happy with his being an inveterate liar.

If he wasn't that, he wouldn't be a senior politician.

So you’re saying the corresponding figures for Hunt show he’s not thought to be sufficiently deceitful ?

They would appear to show he's more successful at it.

alex. said:

HYUFD - do you genuinely believe BXP could win a General Election with no policies whatsoever? They would be a spoiler to the Tory vote, no more, no less.

If PM Boris announced that Brexit would be postponed indefinitely, I think BXP would certainly outpoll the Conservatives.

another_richard said:

Theuniondivvie said:

There's yer Home Office with its wee rainbow flag asking us to celebrate Windrush Day.

Heartwarming.

https://twitter.com/ukhomeoffice/status/1142333901513211905

Those rainbow flags only have six colours whereas a rainbow has seven colours.

They are therefore symbols of exclusion and persecution and a hate crime against the indigo people.

Worse -- while Britain is an official synonym for the UK, the tweet says Great Britain which excludes Northern Ireland.

alex. said:

HYUFD - do you genuinely believe BXP could win a General Election with no policies whatsoever? They would be a spoiler to the Tory vote, no more, no less.

If Brexit is not delivered by the end of October yes as at that point delivering Brexit will be the only policy that matters to most Leave voters.

I can count on one hand the Tory Leave voters I know who would not vote Brexit Party if we are still in the EU in November, they would not be just a spoiler to the Tory vote, they would overtake the Tories in votes and seats

kinabalu said:

NickPalmer said:

Yes, that's where I expect us to end up. It's a perfectly reasonable position IMO (much better than "we'll try to negotiate a deal and then we'll campaign against it in a referendum", which is just ridiculous), though it may suffer from not being an extreme position in a polarised country.

And that, for me, will classify as THE PIVOT. I don't think that Labour Remainers can reasonably ask for or expect more.

The key thing is that a Referendum with Remain as an option is offered. This ought to be enough for Remainers to flock to in great numbers. It's how Brexit gets canned since I'm confident that such a Referendum, Soft Leave vs Remain, would go to Remain.

Interesting question is, if Labour win as largest party needing SNP and LD support to govern, would they be able to anything of much significance EXCEPT cancel Brexit? Certainly much of the Corbynite agenda would be seem to be off limits.

Socialism deferred indefinitely?

In reality they wouldnt effectively cancel Brexit any more than the Tories are delivering it. We might revoke A50 but the clamour for Brexit will still be there, and there will exist a leave party with a shot at winning a GE for the next 10 years even if we revoke.

Not many remainers seem to have thought that through.

kinabalu said:

another_richard said:

Who's advocating a small state ???

Nobody yet. But to go with a No Deal Brexit I would expect this to be the direction of travel for either or both of the Cons and the BP.

There's a 'libertarian pirate island' fringe in the Conservatives but there's sod all votes for it in reality.

Lots of people, across the political spectrum, are in favour of making the state smaller in certain areas ie when its to the detriment of 'people like them' but they're all happy to make the state bigger when its to the benefit of 'people like us'.

another_richard said:

kinabalu said:

another_richard said:

Who's advocating a small state ???

Nobody yet. But to go with a No Deal Brexit I would expect this to be the direction of travel for either or both of the Cons and the BP.

There's a 'libertarian pirate island' fringe in the Conservatives but there's sod all votes for it in reality.

Lots of people, across the political spectrum, are in favour of making the state smaller in certain areas ie when its to the detriment of 'people like them' but they're all happy to make the state bigger when its to the benefit of 'people like us'.

The same group who believe in a smaller state go apeshit when the richest cohort in the country are asked to pay their share of the BBC......it is a strange world.

notme2 said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1142048236426977281?s=21

And here we see the crux of british society. There isnt any real life discrimination against you if you are different race, religion or nationality. Its whether youve got owt or nowt.

It's the first rung of the ladder. But the Guardian will see everything as intersectional. If you are a white straight male, you have it easy, everyone else is a victim.

Not uncommon for migrant families from some parts of the world to come over with quite substantial professional qualifications and quickly fall into the middle classes as if they had been there for generations. Yet schemes like this will give their offspring help.

It is specifically open to candidates from a lower socio-economic background (that does not rule out straight white males).

GIN1138 said:

Max seems to be rowing back on his decision to "quit Britain" if Boris becomes PM

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/history-will-wonder-how-we-trusted-boris-with-britain/

Has anyone famous ever followed through with a threat to "quit" the country if someone they don't like becomes PM?

Michelle Mone threatened to leave the UK if Gord raised the tax rate to 50p.
She didn't.

She threatened to leave Scotland if we voted for indy. She left anyway even though we didn't.

Well I didn't know this. AEP in Telegraph says that under EU law, central banks have to be independent.

No wonder Jezza wants to leave EU.

Gardenwalker said:

notme2 said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1142048236426977281?s=21

And here we see the crux of british society. There isnt any real life discrimination against you if you are different race, religion or nationality. Its whether youve got owt or nowt.

It's the first rung of the ladder. But the Guardian will see everything as intersectional. If you are a white straight male, you have it easy, everyone else is a victim.

Not uncommon for migrant families from some parts of the world to come over with quite substantial professional qualifications and quickly fall into the middle classes as if they had been there for generations. Yet schemes like this will give their offspring help.

This also gets on my tits.
The real discrimination, as you say, is to those with nowt.

It’s a damn site easier for companies to count the number of BAMES, though. Heaven forbid we actually do something about the extraordinary preponderance of posh people in public life.

"This traineeship is only open to candidates from a BAME or lower socio-economic background"

Is there something difficult to understand about the above?

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1142381273043886080

The voters actually voted for Brexit in 2016 James Melville in case you forgot, just Parliament refuses to deliver it

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1142381273043886080

The voters actually voted for Brexit in 2016

But don't want it now. You should pay closer attention to the polls

notme2 said:

noneoftheabove said:

notme2 said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1142048236426977281?s=21

And here we see the crux of british society. There isnt any real life discrimination against you if you are different race, religion or nationality. Its whether youve got owt or nowt.

It's the first rung of the ladder. But the Guardian will see everything as intersectional. If you are a white straight male, you have it easy, everyone else is a victim.

Not uncommon for migrant families from some parts of the world to come over with quite substantial professional qualifications and quickly fall into the middle classes as if they had been there for generations. Yet schemes like this will give their offspring help.

It is specifically open to candidates from a lower socio-economic background (that does not rule out straight white males).

Yes. I know. Pointing out that the BAME one is unnecessary and should be unlawful.

That would be true if middle class BAME candidates had equal opportunities as middle class white candidates. They don't.

SquareRoot said:

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

Max seems to be rowing back on his decision to "quit Britain" if Boris becomes PM

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/history-will-wonder-how-we-trusted-boris-with-britain/

Has anyone famous ever followed through with a threat to "quit" the country if someone they don't like becomes PM?

Kevin Spacey moved to London when George W Bush was elected, Tom Jones moved to California during the 1970s Labour government

Paul O'Grady threated to leave in 2015 IIRC, but he is still here AFAIK

Lives in Kent. Ready for a quick getaway?

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1142381273043886080

The voters actually voted for Brexit in 2016 James Melville in case you forgot, just Parliament refuses to deliver it

The same voters who actually elected that same Parliament a year later. This constant insinuation that the Commons is somehow an undemocratic institution is simultaneously baffling and terrifying.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1142381273043886080

As we discussed at the start of the thread, this is nonsense unless John Bercow invents indicative votes of confidence. Otherwise Boris will need to become Prime Minister before we find out if he can command a majority. Likewise Corbyn.

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

isam said:

EPG said:

isam said:

nichomar said:

isam said:

Scott_P said:

FrankBooth said:

Simple question. Why do Tory members trust Boris?

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1142151102357524480

So obvious this was a stitch up by the neighbours.

https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1142186051257155584?s=21

How could the neighbours cause the couple to have a row? Where is the stitch up?

Neighbours who plaster anti Boris posters with EU stars on all over his car, then record his activity and call the police who find all is well and no case to answer, then give the story the Guardian, obviously have an agenda to try and subvert the Leadership race. Hopefully they’ll be done for wasting police time

"Subvert" the race by citing things that actually happened, is a bit close to the modern meaning of "fake news".

What did the police say they found at the scene?

No case to answer and both people fine.

The neighbours called them to get the headline in the paper, don’t let partisanship blind you to that

This is a non-story.

But, a very profitable one.

Assuming he doesn't quit or blow himself up in the next 4 weeks it's allowed me to leverage another £110 of profit on Boris.

I was pleased to get another £20!!

But please, can we have as story every weekend??

Afghanistan in with a sniff against India now.

NickPalmer said:

kinabalu said:

SandyRentool said:

We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.

Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.

I'm not thinking full-on Remain necessarily.

"We will seek to negotiate a better deal with the EU. One that protects jobs and workers' rights and ...

We will then put that deal to the British people in a confirmatory referendum with the other option being to Remain.

We will allow Labour members and MPs to campaign for whichever option they personally support."

Yes, that's where I expect us to end up. It's a perfectly reasonable position IMO (much better than "we'll try to negotiate a deal and then we'll campaign against it in a referendum", which is just ridiculous), though it may suffer from not being an extreme position in a polarised country.

It would be reasonable if there were a minority of Labour MPs/members who would support remain. It's ludicrous when it is an overwhelming majority, including people like Emily Thornberry and Keir Starmer who would be negoitating it. Essentially it's the same as the first policy, except it allows the likes of Lisa Nandy to not have to go against a manifesto committment.

kinabalu said:

another_richard said:

There's a 'libertarian pirate island' fringe in the Conservatives but there's sod all votes for it in reality.

Lots of people, across the political spectrum, are in favour of making the state smaller in certain areas ie when its to the detriment of 'people like them' but they're all happy to make the state bigger when its to the benefit of 'people like us'.

OK, last para very true, but 'small state' tends to map to 'slash taxes' and there is plenty of support for that - so long as it means 'ordinary people' pay less.

Most people happily support tax cuts for them and tax rises for the rich and less money for welfare (unless they are unemployed) but more money for the NHS.

The Libertarians in the Tory Party tend to be rich enough to be hit by higher taxes even if only for the top income tax rate or higher inheritance tax for estates over £1 million and tend to be rich enough to pay for private healthcare and education so are not affected by increases in funding for core public services

rottenborough said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1142381273043886080

As we discussed at the start of the thread, this is nonsense unless John Bercow invents indicative votes of confidence. Otherwise Boris will need to become Prime Minister before we find out if he can command a majority. Likewise Corbyn.

Surely all it would need is a dozen Tory MPs, who oppose Boris on No Deal, to indicate informally that they will not support him? May could not then in all honesty tell the Queen that Boris should be invited as he is highly likely to be able to command the House.

Constitutionally i'm not sure that May can even resign unless she can propose a successor. Pre the FTPA, her only course would be to recommend an election with the intention of resigning afterwards.

I was really struck by this comment (http://disq.us/p/22m70ec) over at the Speccie this morning:

“Here's what it comes down to for me: Conservatives vs. Tories.

“I'm a conservative. I believe in marriage and the family, a small state, the right to life. I believe that marriage is the lifelong union of a man and a woman. I believe in free enterprise, liberty and democracy. I believe in meritocracy. I believe in law and order.

“I'm ashamed that my party thinks that Boris Johnson, a man who in so many ways embodies the opposite of those virtues and values is the right man to lead our party and our country.

…

“There can only be one explanation for that: The Tories run our party. Tories: plutocratic liberals and moral pygmies.”

I suspect the overnight story about the row between Boris and Carrie will blow over. To a large extent questions in the mind of most Party members about his moral fibre have already been priced in.

But if it doesn’t blow over quickly, I just wonder if doubts might begin to set in. And in particular, I’m not aware that Marina Wheeler has made any further public comment since the announcement of their separation and divorce. If she for any reason was tempted to intervene, I do think that could seriously derail Boris with the “Conservatives” (as opposed to “Tories”) referred to above.

“Hell hath no fury …” and all that?