Surely some mistake, I thought Scotland was a basket case dependent on London largesse ................... Hammond warns leader candidates that Scotland leaving the union "would deprive Britain's next leader of the money needed to end austerity". https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1TK324?__twitter_impression=true
I think it's a shameful violation of Jeremy Corbyn's private life that he was recorded at that wreath-laying. There's no direct evidence he did anything criminal there so we should all just ignore it. Politicians have a right to a private life.
Wasn't it a public ceremony?
But, I agree with you about Ed's bacon roll. There was no need for that to be reported at all, let alone in fantastic detail.
How could the neighbours cause the couple to have a row? Where is the stitch up?
Neighbours who plaster anti Boris posters with EU stars on all over his car, then record his activity and call the police who find all is well and no case to answer, then give the story the Guardian, obviously have an agenda to try and subvert the Leadership race. Hopefully they’ll be done for wasting police time
"Subvert" the race by citing things that actually happened, is a bit close to the modern meaning of "fake news".
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
Mmm.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
So an MP breaks the law and is convicted. 19% of his constituents vote to remove him and he "decides" he will stand again. How breathtakingly arrogant is that.
He sounds more like a football manager, whose team have lost twenty games and languish at the foot of the table, saying "I don't need to go. I can sort it. I have the full backing of the Board."
We read next day that the Board have fired him.
I read your tip that Brecon and Radnor wouldn't get the 10%. If you're trying to compete with me for PB's worst tipster you've still got a long way to go.
Next Chancellor (or any Cabinet minister) betting. It is clear from the Standard's story that Grant Shapps is a key part of Team Boris. Unfortunately, he is not quoted.
This is interesting. I'm not sure how representative Mr Gilliland is, but if he reflects a significant strand of Unionism Sammy Wilson & Paisley Jr should be shitting their pants (something that almost everyone should celebrate).
How could the neighbours cause the couple to have a row? Where is the stitch up?
Neighbours who plaster anti Boris posters with EU stars on all over his car, then record his activity and call the police who find all is well and no case to answer, then give the story the Guardian, obviously have an agenda to try and subvert the Leadership race. Hopefully they’ll be done for wasting police time
If Johnson doesn't provide the ammunition no one could fire it. Simple as that.
It’s interesting how on three issues in 24 hours people have frequently been in the same camp field was a hero The B&R recall shouldn’t happen because the offense was trivial And now Johnson is being set up by his neighbours it was only a lovers tiff.
I plead guilty to being in the opposing camp but it is illuminating.
The MOST interesting finding in that poll of Tory members is that 65% want a pact with the BXP. Wow, just wow. Purely electorally, they are quite mad - it would finish them off as a national party.
Reading Parris's article (urging Hunt to go personal against Boris), an odd problem for Labour against Boris will be that Corbyn doesn't do personal attacks. Not ever, not even in private. It's not high-mindedness exactly, just that he regards them as a tiresome distraction from the serious business of politics, in the same way that he doesn't bother with attacking Southern Rail when he could be talking about the rail industry as a whole. Leaders don't need to be nasty, but Labour will need a Prescott prominent in the campaign to go fully-fledged personal - possibly Angela Rayner.
What will finish the Tories off is not so much a pact with the Brexit Party but failing to deliver Brexit by October 31st regardless of whether Boris or Hunt wins.
As Yougov showed yesterday, deliver Brexit by the end of October and Boris wins a majority with the Tories on 34%, Labour second on 22% and the Brexit Party falling back to 9% as does Hunt with the Tories on 30%, Labour second on 23% and the Brexit Party falling back to 30%.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second and the Tories and Labour tied for third. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second and Labour third
I love the precision of your predictions, given they are so certain could we perhaps get the percentages to 1 decimal place along with the exact seat numbers?
It's a real service to PB. His constant authoritative quoting of the EU election results for Peterborough showed us that it was a certain gain for the Brexit Party long before we got the actual result.
Ruth Davidson is running out of candidates to put a curse on , she has picked every loser in every round. She will be polishing her tongue whilst praying Hunt beats Boris. Will be major brown nosing needed if Boris gets it but for sure she will claim she was misquoted and has always supported him, just ask Mundell.
It’s interesting how on three issues in 24 hours people have frequently been in the same camp field was a hero The B&R recall shouldn’t happen because the offense was trivial And now Johnson is being set up by his neighbours it was only a lovers tiff.
I plead guilty to being in the opposing camp but it is illuminating.
If you want to see how the broad left thinks, visit Twitter. Same is true for the right in the Mail comment section.
I think it's a shameful violation of Jeremy Corbyn's private life that he was recorded at that wreath-laying. There's no direct evidence he did anything criminal there so we should all just ignore it. Politicians have a right to a private life.
Wasn't it a public ceremony?
But, I agree with you about Ed's bacon roll. There was no need for that to be reported at all, let alone in fantastic detail.
Ed broke the golden rule of politics. NEVER be filmed eating because you always look a prat.
Ruth Davidson is running out of candidates to put a curse on , she has picked every loser in every round. She will be polishing her tongue whilst praying Hunt beats Boris. Will be major brown nosing needed if Boris gets it but for sure she will claim she was misquoted and has always supported him, just ask Mundell.
Provided Brexit is delivered by October 31st the Tories in Scotland get their highest rating in Scotland with Yougov under Boris on 20% to 18% with Hunt and are second behind the SNP with either leader.
If Brexit is not delivered by then they do better in Scotland with Hunt on 16% compared to 13% with Boris but are only third in Scotland behind the SNP and Scottish Labour with either leader.
I read your tip that Brecon and Radnor wouldn't get the 10%. If you're trying to compete with me for PB's worst tipster you've still got a long way to go.
I said it was a large, rural constituency, and it was not obvious that the recall would succeed. I also said I would not have signed the petition.
The size of the recall vote is impressive, but I think it is national circumstances rather than Davies' malfeasance that has caused it.
I can certainly tip Davies to lose if he stands again. Will the Tories be dumb enough to choose him again?
Does the choice depend on the central party for a by-election or on the Local Association?
The MOST interesting finding in that poll of Tory members is that 65% want a pact with the BXP. Wow, just wow. Purely electorally, they are quite mad - it would finish them off as a national party.
Reading Parris's article (urging Hunt to go personal against Boris), an odd problem for Labour against Boris will be that Corbyn doesn't do personal attacks. Not ever, not even in private. It's not high-mindedness exactly, just that he regards them as a tiresome distraction from the serious business of politics, in the same way that he doesn't bother with attacking Southern Rail when he could be talking about the rail industry as a whole. Leaders don't need to be nasty, but Labour will need a Prescott prominent in the campaign to go fully-fledged personal - possibly Angela Rayner.
What will finish the Tories off is not so much a pact with the Brexit Party but failing to deliver Brexit by October 31st regardless of whether Boris or Hunt wins.
As Yougov showed yesterday, deliver Brexit by the end of October and Boris wins a majority with the Tories on 34%, Labour second on 22% and the Brexit Party falling back to 9% as does Hunt with the Tories on 30%, Labour second on 23% and the Brexit Party falling back to 30%.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second and the Tories and Labour tied for third. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second and Labour third
I love the precision of your predictions, given they are so certain could we perhaps get the percentages to 1 decimal place along with the exact seat numbers?
It's a real service to PB. His constant authoritative quoting of the EU election results for Peterborough showed us that it was a certain gain for the Brexit Party long before we got the actual result.
And if widespread reports of electoral fraud are correct, he was right.
YouGov poll obviously conducted before last night's revelations.
But even so, shows an incredibly strong position for Johnson....
‘Incredibly’ is indeed borne out by the numbers....
47% Johnson can be trusted 40% Johnson cannot be trusted
52% Hunt can be trusted 31% Hunt cannot be trusted
31% unhappy if Hunt leader as well
Are those the entryists?
No - there isn’t much correlation between unhappy with and cannot be trusted. About a third of Boris’ support seem quite happy with his being an inveterate liar.
YouGov poll obviously conducted before last night's revelations.
But even so, shows an incredibly strong position for Johnson....
‘Incredibly’ is indeed borne out by the numbers....
47% Johnson can be trusted 40% Johnson cannot be trusted
52% Hunt can be trusted 31% Hunt cannot be trusted
31% unhappy if Hunt leader as well
Are those the entryists?
No - there isn’t much correlation between unhappy with and cannot be trusted. About a third of Boris’ support seem quite happy with his being an inveterate liar.
If he wasn't that, he wouldn't be a senior politician.
Ruth Davidson is running out of candidates to put a curse on , she has picked every loser in every round. She will be polishing her tongue whilst praying Hunt beats Boris. Will be major brown nosing needed if Boris gets it but for sure she will claim she was misquoted and has always supported him, just ask Mundell.
Provided Brexit is delivered by October 31st the Tories in Scotland get their highest rating with Yougov under Boris on 20% to 18% with Hunt and are second behind the SNP with either leader.
If Brexit is not delivered by then they do better in Scotland with Hunt on 16% compared to 13% with Boris but are only third in Scotland behind the SNP and Scottish Labour with either leader.
The MOST interesting finding in that poll of Tory members is that 65% want a pact with the BXP. Wow, just wow. Purely electorally, they are quite mad - it would finish them off as a national party.
Reading Parris's article (urging Hunt to go personal against Boris), an odd problem for Labour against Boris will be that Corbyn doesn't do personal attacks. Not ever, not even in private. It's not high-mindedness exactly, just that he regards them as a tiresome distraction from the serious business of politics, in the same way that he doesn't bother with attacking Southern Rail when he could be talking about the rail industry as a whole. Leaders don't need to be nasty, but Labour will need a Prescott prominent in the campaign to go fully-fledged personal - possibly Angela Rayner.
What will finish the Tories off is not so much a pact with the Brexit Party but failing to deliver Brexit by October 31st regardless of whether Boris or Hunt wins.
As Yougov showed yesterday, deliver Brexit by the end of October and Boris wins a majority with the Tories on 34%, Labour second on 22% and the Brexit Party falling back to 9% as does Hunt with the Tories on 30%, Labour second on 23% and the Brexit Party falling back to 30%.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second and the Tories and Labour tied for third. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second and Labour third
I love the precision of your predictions, given they are so certain could we perhaps get the percentages to 1 decimal place along with the exact seat numbers?
It's a real service to PB. His constant authoritative quoting of the EU election results for Peterborough showed us that it was a certain gain for the Brexit Party long before we got the actual result.
And if widespread reports of electoral fraud are correct, he was right.
"Widespread" = spread widely on Westmonster, Breitbart and Guido comment sections??
So an MP breaks the law and is convicted. 19% of his constituents vote to remove him and he "decides" he will stand again. How breathtakingly arrogant is that.
Not at all
He’s perfectly entitled to stand again. And his voters are perfectly entitled to tell him to sod off
What’s surprising is that the Tories want him. A little bit of fiddling is clearly ok.
The MOST interesting finding in that poll of Tory members is that 65% want a pact with the BXP. Wow, just wow. Purely electorally, they are quite mad - it would finish them off as a national party.
Reading Parris's article (urging Hunt to go personal against Boris), an odd problem for Labour against Boris will be that Corbyn doesn't do personal attacks. Not ever, not even in private. It's not high-mindedness exactly, just that he regards them as a tiresome distraction from the serious business of politics, in the same way that he doesn't bother with attacking Southern Rail when he could be talking about the rail industry as a whole. Leaders don't need to be nasty, but Labour will need a Prescott prominent in the campaign to go fully-fledged personal - possibly Angela Rayner.
What will finish the Tories off is not so much a pact with the Brexit Party but failing to deliver Brexit by October 31st regardless of whether Boris or Hunt wins.
As Yougov showed yesterday, deliver Brexit by the end of October and Boris wins a majority with the Tories on 34%, Labour second on 22% and the Brexit Party falling back to 9% as does Hunt with the Tories on 30%, Labour second on 23% and the Brexit Party falling back to 30%.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second and the Tories and Labour tied for third. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second and Labour third
I love the precision of your predictions, given they are so certain could we perhaps get the percentages to 1 decimal place along with the exact seat numbers?
It's a real service to PB. His constant authoritative quoting of the EU election results for Peterborough showed us that it was a certain gain for the Brexit Party long before we got the actual result.
Be as patronising as you wish but the Brexit Party failed to win Peterborough by just 600 votes with the police investigating allegations of electoral fraud there now and with the Tory vote holding up better than in the European Parliament elections after May announced her resignation
I can report everything was quiet next door overnight but I've got my recording equipment ready just in case...
If you heard your neighbour being attacked, what would you do?
Record it, inform and release the recording to the requisite authorities, being the police and an unfriendly newspaper. What would you do?
In an age where the 'selfie of the year' was a girl photographing herself with someone throwing themselves off the Clifton suspension Bridge in the background the answer is all of the above plus release it online as it's happening.
So an MP breaks the law and is convicted. 19% of his constituents vote to remove him and he "decides" he will stand again. How breathtakingly arrogant is that.
Not at all
He’s perfectly entitled to stand again. And his voters are perfectly entitled to tell him to sod off
What’s surprising is that the Tories want him. A little bit of fiddling is clearly ok.
I think they know they will lose. So better to have a figure to blame. Someone who is already discredited and so the result doesn't really tell us that Tories are about to be slaughterd in a GE.
So an MP breaks the law and is convicted. 19% of his constituents vote to remove him and he "decides" he will stand again. How breathtakingly arrogant is that.
Not at all
He’s perfectly entitled to stand again. And his voters are perfectly entitled to tell him to sod off
What’s surprising is that the Tories want him. A little bit of fiddling is clearly ok.
To be fair, his malfeasance is only a tiny bit of, for example, Joan Ryan's.
She stood again.
Late of Labour and now of ... I've forgotten .. is she a LibDem or a Chuk?
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
Mmm.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Unite boss Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest paymaster as has Corbyn adviser Seamus Milne
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
How could the neighbours cause the couple to have a row? Where is the stitch up?
Neighbours who plaster anti Boris posters with EU stars on all over his car, then record his activity and call the police who find all is well and no case to answer, then give the story the Guardian, obviously have an agenda to try and subvert the Leadership race. Hopefully they’ll be done for wasting police time
"Subvert" the race by citing things that actually happened, is a bit close to the modern meaning of "fake news".
What did the police say they found at the scene?
No case to answer and both people fine.
The neighbours called them to get the headline in the paper, don’t let partisanship blind you to that
Ruth Davidson is running out of candidates to put a curse on , she has picked every loser in every round. She will be polishing her tongue whilst praying Hunt beats Boris. Will be major brown nosing needed if Boris gets it but for sure she will claim she was misquoted and has always supported him, just ask Mundell.
Provided Brexit is delivered by October 31st the Tories in Scotland get their highest rating with Yougov under Boris on 20% to 18% with Hunt and are second behind the SNP with either leader.
If Brexit is not delivered by then they do better in Scotland with Hunt on 16% compared to 13% with Boris but are only third in Scotland behind the SNP and Scottish Labour with either leader.
The MOST interesting finding in that poll of Tory members is that 65% want a pact with the BXP. Wow, just wow. Purely electorally, they are quite mad - it would finish them off as a national party.
Reading Parris's article (urging Hunt to go personal against Boris), an odd problem for Labour against Boris will be that Corbyn doesn't do personal attacks. Not ever, not even in private. It's not high-mindedness exactly, just that he regards them as a tiresome distraction from the serious business of politics, in the same way that he doesn't bother with attacking Southern Rail when he could be talking about the rail industry as a whole. Leaders don't need to be nasty, but Labour will need a Prescott prominent in the campaign to go fully-fledged personal - possibly Angela Rayner.
What will finish the Tories off is not so much a pact with the Brexit Party but failing to deliver Brexit by October 31st regardless of whether Boris or Hunt wins.
As Yougov showed yesterday, deliver Brexit by the end of October and Boris wins a majority with the Tories on 34%, Labour second on 22% and the Brexit Party falling back to 9% as does Hunt with the Tories on 30%, Labour second on 23% and the Brexit Party falling back to 30%.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second and the Tories and Labour tied for third. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second and Labour third
I love the precision of your predictions, given they are so certain could we perhaps get the percentages to 1 decimal place along with the exact seat numbers?
It's a real service to PB. His constant authoritative quoting of the EU election results for Peterborough showed us that it was a certain gain for the Brexit Party long before we got the actual result.
And if widespread reports of electoral fraud are correct, he was right.
"Widespread" = spread widely on Westmonster, Breitbart and Guido comment sections??
Not to mention the most right wing rag of them all...
So an MP breaks the law and is convicted. 19% of his constituents vote to remove him and he "decides" he will stand again. How breathtakingly arrogant is that.
Not at all
He’s perfectly entitled to stand again. And his voters are perfectly entitled to tell him to sod off
What’s surprising is that the Tories want him. A little bit of fiddling is clearly ok.
To be fair, his malfeasance is only a tiny bit of, for example, Joan Ryan's.
She stood again.
Late of Labour and now of ... I've forgotten .. is she a LibDem or a Chuk?
It was a minuscule mistake as it has been explained in the press unless there was more and i missed it.
Bad judgement. He had startup costs and office running costs. The photocopier exceeded what was left in the startup costs budget so he mocked up two invoices to spread the cost between the two budgets.
The photocopier was allowable under either budgets. He did not enrich himself, he did not try to double claim. Ordinarily something like this would have been a telling off and dont do it again. To decide to prosecute seems extraordinary.
So an MP breaks the law and is convicted. 19% of his constituents vote to remove him and he "decides" he will stand again. How breathtakingly arrogant is that.
Not at all
He’s perfectly entitled to stand again. And his voters are perfectly entitled to tell him to sod off
What’s surprising is that the Tories want him. A little bit of fiddling is clearly ok.
I think they know they will lose. So better to have a figure to blame. Someone who is already discredited and so the result doesn't really tell us that Tories are about to be slaughterd in a GE.
If the Tories lose it will be to PM Farage as Brexit has not been delivered.
So yes Boris needs to deliver Brexit by October 31st or call a general election on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal ticket by then
Ruth Davidson is running out of candidates to put a curse on , she has picked every loser in every round. She will be polishing her tongue whilst praying Hunt beats Boris. Will be major brown nosing needed if Boris gets it but for sure she will claim she was misquoted and has always supported him, just ask Mundell.
Provided Brexit is delivered by October 31st the Tories in Scotland get their highest rating with Yougov under Boris on 20% to 18% with Hunt and are second behind the SNP with either leader.
If Brexit is not delivered by then they do better in Scotland with Hunt on 16% compared to 13% with Boris but are only third in Scotland behind the SNP and Scottish Labour with either leader.
When you look in Hunt's chiropteran eyes you just see nothing. Absolutely nothing. He would be better than Boris at being PM but so would Freddie Starr and he's dead.
Boris Johnson, I am told, has eyes which when he is not performing, when he is not "on", are lifeless and dead. I use both words because they are subtly different.
What he (Boris) also has in spades is that certain brand of larger-than-life, bluff 'persona' which although manufactured and phony is highly effective and very useful to him. It puts a distance between himself and others, a kind of protective coating, and allows things to bounce off him as he goes on his merry way.
People such as this often turn out to have a hidden inner core that is deeply rotten. This can remain hidden for a long time - either forever or until the day when it isn't.
Jimmy Savile (also blond) was a great example of what I'm talking about. I could come up with a few others if anybody is interested, but he will do for now.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
Mmm.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Unite boss Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest paymaster as has Corbyn adviser Seamus Milne
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Yes - certain.
It wins more seats than it loses.
Or, more accurately, it increases the chances of being largest party (or even a majority).
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
Mmm.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
IMHO, Labour would gain votes, net, if they pivoted, but they'd also be putting some long-standing seats in jeapord
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Unite boss Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest paymaster as has Corbyn adviser Seamus Milne
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Yes - certain.
It wins more seats than it loses.
Calculation details, please.
I am not sure it does. I don't think Labour are in danger of being out-Remainered and losing seats to the LibDems.
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Unite boss Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest paymaster as has Corbyn adviser Seamus Milne
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Yes - certain.
It wins more seats than it loses.
No not certain as Corbynistas will block it as will Labour MPs from Leave seats as they know while it racks up huge Labour majorities in London and the inner cities and university towns it hands Labour Leave seats and towns in the working class industrial Midlands, the North and South Wales on a plate to Boris or Farage
How could the neighbours cause the couple to have a row? Where is the stitch up?
Neighbours who plaster anti Boris posters with EU stars on all over his car, then record his activity and call the police who find all is well and no case to answer, then give the story the Guardian, obviously have an agenda to try and subvert the Leadership race. Hopefully they’ll be done for wasting police time
"Subvert" the race by citing things that actually happened, is a bit close to the modern meaning of "fake news".
What did the police say they found at the scene?
No case to answer and both people fine.
The neighbours called them to get the headline in the paper, don’t let partisanship blind you to that
Whole years go by without my encountering anyone famous, but I saw Dominic Grieve hanging out back the Royal Courts of Justice - and Jeremy Hunt walking briskly to Waterloo Station last night. Both looked rather pleased with themselves.
I saw Professor Sir John Curtice at Glasgow Queen Street station once. He didn't recognise me.
Dominic Grieve is going to end up giving us Nigel Garage as PM. He's far too clever for his own good.
His problem is hes a fanatic, who people pretend is not one because he is intelligent. Hes risked no deal repeatedly and self righteously. But like any fanatic he pursues things beyond all reason and no amount of undoubted intellect, nor even good intentions, can prevent that fanaticism undermining what he wants
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
Mmm.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
But with the wonders of the internet today, LDs in London and Brexiteers in the North will be able to tell voters that Labour are saying different things in different places.
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
Mmm.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
IMHO, Labour would gain votes, net, if they pivoted, but they'd also be putting some long-standing seats in jeapord
They would gain votes by pivoting. But would they make a net gain of seats?
If they don't pivot, they can lose a lot of votes in Cambridge or London and still hold the seats very comfortably.
No not certain as Corbynistas will block it as will Labour MPs from Leave seats as they know while it racks up huge Labour majorities in London and the inner cities and university towns it hands Labour Leave seats and towns in the working class industrial Midlands, the North and South Wales on a plate to Boris or Farage
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
Mmm.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
Yes, Corbyn will try the same strategy as last time and hedge his bets.
However it runs the risk of Labour being squeezed by the LDs in Remain areas and the Brexit Party and Boris in Leave areas but he can say talking about other things while being non commital on Brexit boosted Labour in 2017 so he will do so again
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Unite boss Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest paymaster as has Corbyn adviser Seamus Milne
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Yes - certain.
It wins more seats than it loses.
No not certain as Corbynistas will block it as will Labour MPs from Leave seats as they know while it racks up huge Labour majorities in London and the inner cities and university towns it hands Labour Leave seats and towns in the working class industrial Midlands, the North and South Wales on a plate to Boris or Farage
The votes gained would come from Lib Dems and Greens. The votes lost would go to TBP. I don't see South Wales falling, but I think places like Stoke, Rotherham, Bolsover could go.
But with the wonders of the internet today, LDs in London and Brexiteers in the North will be able to tell voters that Labour are saying different things in different places.
But, my recollection is you are a LibDem.
Surely, I don't need to tell you about how a party can face both ways at once. And it can be a very successful strategy for a long while.
Corby only needs it to work for a short while. Nothing is forever.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
Mmm.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
IMHO, Labour would gain votes, net, if they pivoted, but they'd also be putting some long-standing seats in jeapord
They would gain votes by pivoting. But would they make a net gain of seats?
If they don't pivot, they can lose a lot of votes in Cambridge or London and still hold the seats very comfortably.
Compared to 2017? No.
Compared to the number they'd win if an election were held tomorrow? Yes.
The Labour MP rhetoric re Leave seats isn’t matched by the polling.
In the last YouGov the Brexit Party was only taking 8% of their vote . The myth peddling by people like Lavery is based on their Lexiter view nothing to do with reality .
Labour Leavers don’t prioritize Brexit like Tory Leavers .
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
Mmm.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
Yes, Corbyn will try the same strategy as last time and hedge his bets.
However it runs the risk of Labour being squeezed by the LDs in Remain areas and the Brexit Party and Boris in Leave areas but he can say talking about other things while being non commital on Brexit boosted Labour in 2017 so he will do so again
We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.
YouGov poll obviously conducted before last night's revelations.
But even so, shows an incredibly strong position for Johnson....
‘Incredibly’ is indeed borne out by the numbers....
47% Johnson can be trusted 40% Johnson cannot be trusted
52% Hunt can be trusted 31% Hunt cannot be trusted
31% unhappy if Hunt leader as well
Are those the entryists?
No - there isn’t much correlation between unhappy with and cannot be trusted. About a third of Boris’ support seem quite happy with his being an inveterate liar.
If he wasn't that, he wouldn't be a senior politician.
So you’re saying the corresponding figures for Hunt show he’s not thought to be sufficiently deceitful ?
I am not sure it does. I don't think Labour are in danger of being out-Remainered and losing seats to the LibDems.
The choice isn't Remain or Leave.
It is Remain or Leave or Fudge.
Imagine this 'Brexit' GE. Highly polarizing. Tories and BP running on Leave, LDs running on Remain. If Labour go with fudge, on the fence, it is clear to me that they will get HAMMERED. Because the Remain vote will go to the LDs. So they quite simply MUST do the pivot.
Not saying Corbyn wants to - he doesn't - or that it won't cost some seats in 'traditional areas' - it will - but they will have to do it. And the members want it, remember.
I am not sure it does. I don't think Labour are in danger of being out-Remainered and losing seats to the LibDems.
The choice isn't Remain or Leave.
It is Remain or Leave or Fudge.
Imagine this 'Brexit' GE. Highly polarizing. Tories and BP running on Leave, LDs running on Remain. If Labour go with fudge, on the fence, it is clear to me that they will get HAMMERED. Because the Remain vote will go to the LDs. So they quite simply MUST do the pivot.
Not saying Corbyn wants to - he doesn't - or that it won't cost some seats in 'traditional areas' - it will - but they will have to do it. And the members want it, remember.
But a lot of those voters are lost for at least the next GE people will not trust corbyn to da as he says.
I read your tip that Brecon and Radnor wouldn't get the 10%. If you're trying to compete with me for PB's worst tipster you've still got a long way to go.
I said it was a large, rural constituency, and it was not obvious that the recall would succeed. I also said I would not have signed the petition.
The size of the recall vote is impressive, but I think it is national circumstances rather than Davies' malfeasance that has caused it.
I can certainly tip Davies to lose if he stands again. Will the Tories be dumb enough to choose him again?
Does the choice depend on the central party for a by-election or on the Local Association?
I can't see any Recall Petition EVER failing. And it will NEVER have anything to do with personal conduct. The opponents just see it as a free go and round up the votes. They are a really bad idea. Seems to me that the previous situation was much fairer.
Recall Petitions are a stunt - bad governance. Referendums were introduced for the same reason. Wise people saw the risks of referendums imposed on the UK system. It is interesting that the ones who are really furious about the result are those who most strongly demanded their grafting into the system.
We now have "serious" people advocating Citizen's Councils where the "right sort" of people confirm the views of the "right sort" of people in refusing to allow the rest to have any say. Lest you think this is acceptable these are the people who would take the vote off those who don't share their own "sensible" view.
Rory Stewart was the most dangerous man ever to apply to be PM, in my view more dangerous than Jeremy Corbyn.
Sounds like the crockery was being flung about by Carrie Symonds. Boris probably best of moving on to another young lady after he gets elected Tory leader.
Is Annunziata unattached? That would be a Brexit political union and a half.
I don't know if she is unattached, but I chanted her name three times and now all my furniture is levitating.
If Labour go with fudge, on the fence, it is clear to me that they will get HAMMERED. Because the Remain vote will go to the LDs. So they quite simply MUST do the pivot.
But would that really happen?
In a seat like Cambridge with a vigorous Labour Remainer as an MP, would the Labour vote get hammered? My guess is no.
So an MP breaks the law and is convicted. 19% of his constituents vote to remove him and he "decides" he will stand again. How breathtakingly arrogant is that.
Not at all
He’s perfectly entitled to stand again. And his voters are perfectly entitled to tell him to sod off
That a person is entiltled to do something, does not mean that choosing to do it isn't arrogant.
We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.
I'm not thinking full-on Remain necessarily.
"We will seek to negotiate a better deal with the EU. One that protects jobs and workers' rights and ...
We will then put that deal to the British people in a confirmatory referendum with the other option being to Remain.
We will allow Labour members and MPs to campaign for whichever option they personally support."
I read your tip that Brecon and Radnor wouldn't get the 10%. If you're trying to compete with me for PB's worst tipster you've still got a long way to go.
I said it was a large, rural constituency, and it was not obvious that the recall would succeed. I also said I would not have signed the petition.
The size of the recall vote is impressive, but I think it is national circumstances rather than Davies' malfeasance that has caused it.
I can certainly tip Davies to lose if he stands again. Will the Tories be dumb enough to choose him again?
Does the choice depend on the central party for a by-election or on the Local Association?
I can't see any Recall Petition EVER failing. And it will NEVER have anything to do with personal conduct. The opponents just see it as a free go and round up the votes. They are a really bad idea. Seems to me that the previous situation was much fairer.
Recall Petitions are a stunt - bad governance. Referendums were introduced for the same reason. Wise people saw the risks of referendums imposed on the UK system. It is interesting that the ones who are really furious about the result are those who most strongly demanded their grafting into the system.
We now have "serious" people advocating Citizen's Councils where the "right sort" of people confirm the views of the "right sort" of people in refusing to allow the rest to have any say. Lest you think this is acceptable these are the people who would take the vote off those who don't share their own "sensible" view.
Rory Stewart was the most dangerous man ever to apply to be PM, in my view more dangerous than Jeremy Corbyn.
We have quite active Greens demanding citizens assemblies at local authority levels for their climate emergencies. No one seems to have the courage to tell them their councils and parliaments are properly constituted citizens assemblies.
Of course you are quite right. These things will be populated almost entirely with people who have the 'correct' view on most things. Which is why they want them.
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Unite boss Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest paymaster as has Corbyn adviser Seamus Milne
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Yes - certain.
It wins more seats than it loses.
No not certain as Corbynistas will block it as will Labour MPs from Leave seats as they know while it racks up huge Labour majorities in London and the inner cities and university towns it hands Labour Leave seats and towns in the working class industrial Midlands, the North and South Wales on a plate to Boris or Farage
The votes gained would come from Lib Dems and Greens. The votes lost would go to TBP. I don't see South Wales falling, but I think places like Stoke, Rotherham, Bolsover could go.
Yes, the latter would all go Boris Tory or Brexit Party if Labour back EUref2 with Dennis Skinner and Gareth Snell losing their seats and Gloria Del Piero in Ashfield and Yvette Cooper in Pontefract and Lisa Nandy in Wigan and John Cruddas in Dagenham would also be at risk
I read your tip that Brecon and Radnor wouldn't get the 10%. If you're trying to compete with me for PB's worst tipster you've still got a long way to go.
I said it was a large, rural constituency, and it was not obvious that the recall would succeed. I also said I would not have signed the petition.
The size of the recall vote is impressive, but I think it is national circumstances rather than Davies' malfeasance that has caused it.
I can certainly tip Davies to lose if he stands again. Will the Tories be dumb enough to choose him again?
Does the choice depend on the central party for a by-election or on the Local Association?
I can't see any Recall Petition EVER failing. And it will NEVER have anything to do with personal conduct. The opponents just see it as a free go and round up the votes. They are a really bad idea. Seems to me that the previous situation was much fairer.
Recall Petitions are a stunt - bad governance. Referendums were introduced for the same reason. Wise people saw the risks of referendums imposed on the UK system. It is interesting that the ones who are really furious about the result are those who most strongly demanded their grafting into the system.
We now have "serious" people advocating Citizen's Councils where the "right sort" of people confirm the views of the "right sort" of people in refusing to allow the rest to have any say. Lest you think this is acceptable these are the people who would take the vote off those who don't share their own "sensible" view.
Rory Stewart was the most dangerous man ever to apply to be PM, in my view more dangerous than Jeremy Corbyn.
If MPs don’t wish to undergo recalls they have the option of not committing crimes.
We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.
I'm not thinking full-on Remain necessarily.
"We will seek to negotiate a better deal with the EU. One that protects jobs and workers' rights and ...
We will then put that deal to the British people in a confirmatory referendum with the other option being to Remain.
We will allow Labour members and MPs to campaign for whichever option they personally support."
Much better, but still a little harsh on the palate.
We are looking for a more inspissated texture, with perhaps a creamier flavour.
A little more butter and sugar perhaps? And even a few candies and raisins in the mix, inside rather than on top.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
Mmm.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
Yes, Corbyn will try the same strategy as last time and hedge his bets.
However it runs the risk of Labour being squeezed by the LDs in Remain areas and the Brexit Party and Boris in Leave areas but he can say talking about other things while being non commital on Brexit boosted Labour in 2017 so he will do so again
We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.
To the extent the LDs and Greens have no chance winning Leave seats like Wigan, Stoke, Bolsover and Dagenham and Ashfield and beating the Brexit Party or Boris Tories, only Labour do, correct
I read your tip that Brecon and Radnor wouldn't get the 10%. If you're trying to compete with me for PB's worst tipster you've still got a long way to go.
I said it was a large, rural constituency, and it was not obvious that the recall would succeed. I also said I would not have signed the petition.
The size of the recall vote is impressive, but I think it is national circumstances rather than Davies' malfeasance that has caused it.
I can certainly tip Davies to lose if he stands again. Will the Tories be dumb enough to choose him again?
Does the choice depend on the central party for a by-election or on the Local Association?
I can't see any Recall Petition EVER failing. And it will NEVER have anything to do with personal conduct. The opponents just see it as a free go and round up the votes. They are a really bad idea. Seems to me that the previous situation was much fairer.
Recall Petitions are a stunt - bad governance. Referendums were introduced for the same reason. Wise people saw the risks of referendums imposed on the UK system. It is interesting that the ones who are really furious about the result are those who most strongly demanded their grafting into the system.
We now have "serious" people advocating Citizen's Councils where the "right sort" of people confirm the views of the "right sort" of people in refusing to allow the rest to have any say. Lest you think this is acceptable these are the people who would take the vote off those who don't share their own "sensible" view.
Rory Stewart was the most dangerous man ever to apply to be PM, in my view more dangerous than Jeremy Corbyn.
If MPs don’t wish to undergo recalls they have the option of not committing crimes.
Indeed. People act like they can happen just because people dont like a politician.
In a seat like Cambridge with a vigorous Labour Remainer as an MP, would the Labour vote get hammered? My guess is no.
So right there is our difference of view. I think in a general election, if the Lib Dems are the only main party (in England) offering the chance to cancel Brexit, the votes of those people for whom cancelling Brexit is a priority will go in great numbers (many millions) to that party. With Leavers split between Tory and BP, this spells annihilation for Labour. Don't see how they can take that risk. There is a risk the other way, of course, but IMO it is much smaller.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
Mmm.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
Yes, Corbyn will try the same strategy as last time and hedge his bets.
However it runs the risk of Labour being squeezed by the LDs in Remain areas and the Brexit Party and Boris in Leave areas but he can say talking about other things while being non commital on Brexit boosted Labour in 2017 so he will do so again
We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.
To the extent the LDs and Greens have no chance winning Leave seats like Wigan, Bolsover and Dagenham and Ashfield, only Labour do, correct
Sounds like the crockery was being flung about by Carrie Symonds. Boris probably best of moving on to another young lady after he gets elected Tory leader.
Is Annunziata unattached? That would be a Brexit political union and a half.
I don't know if she is unattached, but I chanted her name three times and now all my furniture is levitating.
Initially, I read The Union Divvie's comment as suggesting she should hook up with Carrie.
Will Hutton famously makes hundreds of predictions of which nearly all are wrong, then makes a career out of claiming to be a sage on the three he got right. His book the State We Are In was wrong on so many fronts as to be embarrassing. His comments about Japan's economic model and how we should all follow it are so bad that he should be shunned from ever making predictions again.
We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.
I'm not thinking full-on Remain necessarily.
"We will seek to negotiate a better deal with the EU. One that protects jobs and workers' rights and ...
We will then put that deal to the British people in a confirmatory referendum with the other option being to Remain.
We will allow Labour members and MPs to campaign for whichever option they personally support."
Much better, but still a little harsh on the palate.
We are looking for a more inspissated texture, with perhaps a creamier flavour.
A little more butter and sugar perhaps? And even a few candies and raisins in the mix, inside rather than on top.
Comments
Though currently Boris wins a bigger landslide over Hunt with the membership than IDS did over Clarke in 2001 or Cameron did over Davis in 2005
Hammond warns leader candidates that Scotland leaving the union "would deprive Britain's next leader of the money needed to end austerity".
https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1TK324?__twitter_impression=true
But, I agree with you about Ed's bacon roll. There was no need for that to be reported at all, let alone in fantastic detail.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
ETA link
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tory-leadership-race-how-boris-johnson-nailed-it-down-to-the-final-vote-a4172856.html
https://twitter.com/Bangordub/status/1142310266056728577
field was a hero
The B&R recall shouldn’t happen because the offense was trivial
And now Johnson is being set up by his neighbours it was only a lovers tiff.
I plead guilty to being in the opposing camp but it is illuminating.
Same is true for the right in the Mail comment section.
https://twitter.com/DoctorChristian/status/1142204203470905347
Duplicate, deleted
If Brexit is not delivered by then they do better in Scotland with Hunt on 16% compared to 13% with Boris but are only third in Scotland behind the SNP and Scottish Labour with either leader.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
The size of the recall vote is impressive, but I think it is national circumstances rather than Davies' malfeasance that has caused it.
I can certainly tip Davies to lose if he stands again. Will the Tories be dumb enough to choose him again?
Does the choice depend on the central party for a by-election or on the Local Association?
About a third of Boris’ support seem quite happy with his being an inveterate liar.
You disarm the woman with the dangerous smartphone and frogmarch her out the house.
She stood again.
Late of Labour and now of ... I've forgotten .. is she a LibDem or a Chuk?
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
No case to answer and both people fine.
The neighbours called them to get the headline in the paper, don’t let partisanship blind you to that
https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/crime/five-electoral-fraud-allegations-at-peterborough-by-election-being-investigated-by-police-1-8964103?fbclid=IwAR1K-QtSSqJCX4WLsqlPZTcOYI3wHAoJEa5-YxrciGhM_gqXyLrzziipwVg
Bad judgement. He had startup costs and office running costs. The photocopier exceeded what was left in the startup costs budget so he mocked up two invoices to spread the cost between the two budgets.
The photocopier was allowable under either budgets. He did not enrich himself, he did not try to double claim. Ordinarily something like this would have been a telling off and dont do it again. To decide to prosecute seems extraordinary.
So yes Boris needs to deliver Brexit by October 31st or call a general election on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal ticket by then
What he (Boris) also has in spades is that certain brand of larger-than-life, bluff 'persona' which although manufactured and phony is highly effective and very useful to him. It puts a distance between himself and others, a kind of protective coating, and allows things to bounce off him as he goes on his merry way.
People such as this often turn out to have a hidden inner core that is deeply rotten. This can remain hidden for a long time - either forever or until the day when it isn't.
Jimmy Savile (also blond) was a great example of what I'm talking about. I could come up with a few others if anybody is interested, but he will do for now.
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
It wins more seats than it loses.
Or, more accurately, it increases the chances of being largest party (or even a majority).
IMHO, Labour would gain votes, net, if they pivoted, but they'd also be putting some long-standing seats in jeapord
I am not sure it does. I don't think Labour are in danger of being out-Remainered and losing seats to the LibDems.
The choice isn't Remain or Leave.
It is Remain or Leave or Fudge.
With your last sentence.
If they don't pivot, they can lose a lot of votes in Cambridge or London and still hold the seats very comfortably.
However it runs the risk of Labour being squeezed by the LDs in Remain areas and the Brexit Party and Boris in Leave areas but he can say talking about other things while being non commital on Brexit boosted Labour in 2017 so he will do so again
Surely, I don't need to tell you about how a party can face both ways at once. And it can be a very successful strategy for a long while.
Corby only needs it to work for a short while. Nothing is forever.
Compared to the number they'd win if an election were held tomorrow? Yes.
In the last YouGov the Brexit Party was only taking 8% of their vote . The myth peddling by people like Lavery is based on their Lexiter view nothing to do with reality .
Labour Leavers don’t prioritize Brexit like Tory Leavers .
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.
Not saying Corbyn wants to - he doesn't - or that it won't cost some seats in 'traditional areas' - it will - but they will have to do it. And the members want it, remember.
Recall Petitions are a stunt - bad governance. Referendums were introduced for the same reason. Wise people saw the risks of referendums imposed on the UK system. It is interesting that the ones who are really furious about the result are those who most strongly demanded their grafting into the system.
We now have "serious" people advocating Citizen's Councils where the "right sort" of people confirm the views of the "right sort" of people in refusing to allow the rest to have any say. Lest you think this is acceptable these are the people who would take the vote off those who don't share their own "sensible" view.
Rory Stewart was the most dangerous man ever to apply to be PM, in my view more dangerous than Jeremy Corbyn.
In a seat like Cambridge with a vigorous Labour Remainer as an MP, would the Labour vote get hammered? My guess is no.
"We will seek to negotiate a better deal with the EU. One that protects jobs and workers' rights and ...
We will then put that deal to the British people in a confirmatory referendum with the other option being to Remain.
We will allow Labour members and MPs to campaign for whichever option they personally support."
Of course you are quite right. These things will be populated almost entirely with people who have the 'correct' view on most things. Which is why they want them.
Still, Labour's best position is fudge.
Fudge is very sticky and opaque. So it may not be so easy to figure out Welsh Labour's position.
We are looking for a more inspissated texture, with perhaps a creamier flavour.
A little more butter and sugar perhaps? And even a few candies and raisins in the mix, inside rather than on top.
Plus we have seen one that has already failed
https://twitter.com/williamnhutton/status/1142193061935702017
Heartwarming.
https://twitter.com/ukhomeoffice/status/1142333901513211905
But unfair. That policy is not fudge. It is perfectly clear.
But what matters is what LABOUR think. If they think what I think, they will do the pivot. If they think what you think, they won't.
It's all about winning after all.