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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brecon & Radnorshire: the by-election that never was?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brecon & Radnorshire: the by-election that never was?
The problem with being spoilt for excitement politically (apart from the complete wreckage of the party system, trust in politics and – who knows – maybe the country itself) is that there’s no time to sit back and appreciate what’s just gone before the next instalment arrives.
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A writ must be moved in the House of Commons to trigger each by-election that takes place. It is customary for a member of the party which previously held the seat to move the writ. Normally, this takes place not long after the seat becomes vacant, so that the seat’s constituents are not left without representation in the House for longer than necessary. Occasionally, however, there may be a significant delay between the vacancy and the by-election, or the vacancy and the issuing of the writ.
It is also possible for the Speaker to issue a writ during a recess period. When this occurs, the Speaker informs the House when it next sits.
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06576#fullreport
Delivering to a seat of this size is a massive undertaking but the party is fired up
Sunday Times YouGov poll of Con members:
Johnson 74
Hunt 26
(On 16 May 2019 it was Johnson 67 Hunt 33)
80% certain of choice
19% might change mind
47% Johnson can be trusted
40% Johnson cannot be trusted
52% Hunt can be trusted
31% Hunt cannot be trusted
71% Happy if Johnson leader
19% Unhappy
41% Happy if Hunt leader
31% Unhappy
65% support pact with Brexit Party
27% oppose
8% Don't Know
The Lib Dems are into full campaign mode already so will be compromised if the by election is delayed as described here. So I reckon they will move the writ and dare the Tories to vote it down in a week or so.
But even so, shows an incredibly strong position for Johnson. Surely something more serious would have to be reported / happen to put significant dent into lead (ie to get it anywhere near to say 60:40).
but have you included 1221 as a multiple of 111 or are you just just looking for results containing just one unique digit?
Our erstwhile Prime Minister most surely is the gift that keeps on giving. Boris will provide more wonderful threads than a host a Savile Row tailors.
Whatever the full story of the latest Boris contretemps turn out to be we may be sure of one thing. It has opened the door to the press on the colourful nature of his private life. Neither is this just a "Guardianista" moment as we may see from the all the front pages.
The question that follows is whether the Conservative members care and whether they dismiss the incident and others that may follow as just part of Boris's "charm" and macho buffoonery.
I suspect they will. Just as the majority of Conservative MP's have overlooked Boris's manifest shortcomings I believe that a substantial majority of members will do likewise. Their mantra seems to be :
"We Want Boris And We Don't Care"
More seriously, as @Cyclefree has noted, re-selecting Davies is not a good look for the Conservative Party. Laura Norder must be spinning in her grave.
One point that I made yesterday but is worth repeating as it's directly thread related.
If the Conservative believe that the seat is lost they may decide to move the writ quickly so that Theresa May takes the fall rather than the shiny new Prime Minister.
If he isn't ..........
The first day of the contest had the Field incident, the B and R recall, then Boris having a domestic row. What can today bring? Must stock up on popcorn...
Something has died. And the cause? I think it was Mr Gove.
Impostors almost always know they are impostors, and Mr Johnson is nothing if not self-aware. I diagnose here a man who, when the sound of cheering, ringing in his ears, begins to fade, knows what thin ice he’s on, and how shallow is the politics beneath the dazzling polish of the surface.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/hunt-should-play-the-man-and-not-the-ball-fxkqm2w2n
None of us know what it was that attracted her toward the millionaire favourite to become most powerful man in the land.
All parties try to get dates for by elections to suit them.
Though a GE win may well be fair compensation for not having a by election.
Pleazzzzzzzzzzzze !!!!
It is perfectly legal for second home owners to be on the electoral register at both homes as can vote in local elections at both. In a GE they are only allowed to vote in one place, but presumably can vote in this byelection. Is this correct, and how many second homes are their in this delightful and accessible part of Wales?
It may be inconvenient because of the Royal Welsh. Party before constituents.
It may be a low turn-out because of Summer vacation. Party before constituents.
It may be unnecessary because we are heading towards a GE. Party before constituents.
47% Johnson can be trusted
40% Johnson cannot be trusted
52% Hunt can be trusted
31% Hunt cannot be trusted
I don't like Chis Davies, and I am not a Tory.
On 2, of course September is also a bad time because elderly people (like myself) take holidays then because it's cheaper, and there are fewer crowds.
Anyone who genuinely has a second home and is registered there can vote in the by election.
According to the Welsh Assembly 4.5% of properties within B&R are vacant and 2.2% classified as second or holiday homes.
She’s a lawyer. I think he works abroad.
https://twitter.com/ellenbarrynyt/status/1142302693727375360?s=21
Johnson's appeal to the faithful rests largely on his supposed appeal amongst the electorate at large. As HYUFD never stops telling us, the Tories poll better when the question is 'how would you vote if Boris were leader?' If the general public turns off the idea of Boris as PM, whether because of little incidents like last night's or for other reasons, there may be some associated backing off by Party members.
I don't think this contest is quite over yet.
Hunt's real problem though (well, aside from the fact most members have already decided) is that he cannot win simply by being a pale shadow of Boris, because people will vote for the real thing, and so far that seems to be what he is aiming at.
They’ve had great fun mocking Labour for its choice of leader these last few years. Now we’ll see if they are any more sensible themselves.
I wish them well for a speedy recovery from their shocking and debilitating illness.
I can see an advantage of an early byelection too.
The poor constituents of Brecon and Radnorshire will be spared the relentless campaign mode of thrusting LibDems all Summer !
The bar charts, the leaflets, the London accents shrieking about Brexit, strident Jane Dodds ranting about windfarms, elderly peers from Harpenden babbling nonsense ... it is unbearable for the poor constituents of B&R, month after month after month.
3rd time lucky ?
Basically, they rely on second homers and holiday homers to self-declare to Powys Council. I would guess the number is out by a factor of 3 or 4.
You are of course correct that you have to spend significant amount of time at the home (50 per cent or more) to be eligible to vote.
For example, it is in fact illegal to send a message about Green issues in Cumbria by voting in a second home there, if you actually live in Camden.
If it’s on double yellows eventually it should be towed away. But my guess is he’s just flouting a resident permit scheme. Motivated clued up traffic wardens should simply visit that area very regularly.
There is nothing about 50% in the guidance; it simply needs to be demonstrably a home where you spend a significant proportion of your time.
They know Boris is incompetent. They know he's keener to play hide and seek than keep a promise.
So what if the polls look good now? There isn't an election tomorrow. There'll be an election after the next PM has had months or years in office.
Hunt might not get anyone's heart beating faster, but he seems like a fundamentally decent human being and was Health Secretary for a long time, itself a feat of survival. And we can directly contrast his pretty sensible time in the Foreign Office to Boris'.
I'm not saying Hunt will win, mind. I'm just saying MPs were cretins to back Boris and then to allow themselves to be his glove puppets.
Southam - I'm not so sure. Johnson hasn't been properly tested on this sort of thing and part of his appeal has always been he reaches voters other Tories don't. We'll just have to see if the reality is as depressing as you suggest.
I do reckon that second home ownership will become more frequent post Brexit, as fewer people will buy in the Costas, and more will holiday in the UK.
Reading Parris's article (urging Hunt to go personal against Boris), an odd problem for Labour against Boris will be that Corbyn doesn't do personal attacks. Not ever, not even in private. It's not high-mindedness exactly, just that he regards them as a tiresome distraction from the serious business of politics, in the same way that he doesn't bother with attacking Southern Rail when he could be talking about the rail industry as a whole. Leaders don't need to be nasty, but Labour will need a Prescott prominent in the campaign to go fully-fledged personal - possibly Angela Rayner.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/18/one-ten-british-adults-now-second-home-owner/
In B&R, you can visit some villages in the winter in mid evening, and in excess of 50 per cent of homes are all dark. Houes after houses after houses, all clearly not in use.
I would guess that on average in B&R, second homers are at least 20 per cent -- and in some picturesque spots even more -- of all the properties.
It is ripe for LibDem vote-harvesting, as Foxy's cunning LibDem mind is already illegally thinking.
I think the Telegraph might be looking for a new columnist!
Still, with three marriages, there is ample evidence that Corby may not be the easiest of husbands himself.