How could the neighbours cause the couple to have a row? Where is the stitch up?
Neighbours who plaster anti Boris posters with EU stars on all over his car, then record his activity and call the police who find all is well and no case to answer, then give the story the Guardian, obviously have an agenda to try and subvert the Leadership race. Hopefully they’ll be done for wasting police time
"Subvert" the race by citing things that actually happened, is a bit close to the modern meaning of "fake news".
What did the police say they found at the scene?
No case to answer and both people fine.
The neighbours called them to get the headline in the paper, don’t let partisanship blind you to that
This is a non-story.
But, a very profitable one.
Assuming he doesn't quit or blow himself up in the next 4 weeks it's allowed me to leverage another £110 of profit on Boris.
In a seat like Cambridge with a vigorous Labour Remainer as an MP, would the Labour vote get hammered? My guess is no.
So right there is our difference of view. I think in a general election, if the Lib Dems are the only main party (in England) offering the chance to cancel Brexit, the votes of those people for whom cancelling Brexit is a priority will go in great numbers (many millions) to that party. With Leavers split between Tory and BP, this spells annihilation for Labour. Don't see how they can take that risk. There is a risk the other way, of course, but IMO it is much smaller.
IMHO, if we had a general election now, support for the Conservatives and Labour would move towards the high twenties, and for Lib Dems and TBP, down towards the low teens. Not because of any love for either the Conservatives or Labour, but simply to keep the other one out.
Carrie has about a fortnight to spill the truth about the real Johnson, and set herself up with the proceeds of her story. Even that being a possibility ought to influence the betting.
Perhaps, perhaps not. We must assume the couple still have feelings for each other but in any case, voters have already priced in Boris's colourful and at times disreputable private life.
The other neighbours (not the ones that were so concerned they recorded the row and went to the Guardian with it) said that Carrie was screaming and Boris was much quieter
Maybe Boris has been a naughty boy again and she was searching the laptop for evidence?
We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.
I'm not thinking full-on Remain necessarily.
"We will seek to negotiate a better deal with the EU. One that protects jobs and workers' rights and ...
We will then put that deal to the British people in a confirmatory referendum with the other option being to Remain.
We will allow Labour members and MPs to campaign for whichever option they personally support."
Yes, that's where I expect us to end up. It's a perfectly reasonable position IMO (much better than "we'll try to negotiate a deal and then we'll campaign against it in a referendum", which is just ridiculous), though it may suffer from not being an extreme position in a polarised country.
I read your tip that Brecon and Radnor wouldn't get the 10%. If you're trying to compete with me for PB's worst tipster you've still got a long way to go.
I said it was a large, rural constituency, and it was not obvious that the recall would succeed. I also said I would not have signed the petition.
The size of the recall vote is impressive, but I think it is national circumstances rather than Davies' malfeasance that has caused it.
I can certainly tip Davies to lose if he stands again. Will the Tories be dumb enough to choose him again?
Does the choice depend on the central party for a by-election or on the Local Association?
I can't see any Recall Petition EVER failing. And it will NEVER have anything to do with personal conduct. The opponents just see it as a free go and round up the votes. They are a really bad idea. Seems to me that the previous situation was much fairer.
Recall Petitions are a stunt - bad governance. Referendums were introduced for the same reason. Wise people saw the risks of referendums imposed on the UK system. It is interesting that the ones who are really furious about the result are those who most strongly demanded their grafting into the system.
We now have "serious" people advocating Citizen's Councils where the "right sort" of people confirm the views of the "right sort" of people in refusing to allow the rest to have any say. Lest you think this is acceptable these are the people who would take the vote off those who don't share their own "sensible" view.
Rory Stewart was the most dangerous man ever to apply to be PM, in my view more dangerous than Jeremy Corbyn.
We have quite active Greens demanding citizens assemblies at local authority levels for their climate emergencies. No one seems to have the courage to tell them their councils and parliaments are properly constituted citizens assemblies.
Of course you are quite right. These things will be populated almost entirely with people who have the 'correct' view on most things. Which is why they want them.
I guess you already know and dont care but the point of citizens assemblies is that they take party politics out of the equation by electing randomly rather than through party selection. The idea being people respond and work together as individuals not what they are told to do by whips. So whether they are a good or bad thing, it is clear they are very different from parliament.
July 25th is the Royal Welsh show in Builth Wells, so really not a good time for a by election. Transport issues and venues for polling and counting both compromised.
The Lib Dems are into full campaign mode already so will be compromised if the by election is delayed as described here. So I reckon they will move the writ and dare the Tories to vote it down in a week or so.
Typical LibDem hypocrisy. The LibDem campaign will be "compromised". We must have the byelection at the best time for the party.
And the Conservatives won't move the writ at the best time for their party?
Pleazzzzzzzzzzzze !!!!
I think there are a number of non-Party reasons why the by-election should not be held in July or August.
I don't like Chis Davies, and I am not a Tory.
The 1985 by election took place in July and saw a turnout of 79.4%.
In a seat like Cambridge with a vigorous Labour Remainer as an MP, would the Labour vote get hammered? My guess is no.
So right there is our difference of view. I think in a general election, if the Lib Dems are the only main party (in England) offering the chance to cancel Brexit, the votes of those people for whom cancelling Brexit is a priority will go in great numbers (many millions) to that party. With Leavers split between Tory and BP, this spells annihilation for Labour. Don't see how they can take that risk. There is a risk the other way, of course, but IMO it is much smaller.
IMHO, if we had a general election now, support for the Conservatives and Labour would move towards the high twenties, and for Lib Dems and TBP, down towards the low teens. Not because of any love for either the Conservatives or Labour, but simply to keep the other one out.
Agreed. Broadly, we will end up in the same ball-park of hung Parliament, but it is impossible to predict whether Tory or Labour will be the largest party.
I think TBP will struggle organisationally, so may end up with very few seats. 3 million votes and no seats seems rather likely to me.
And I think the LibDems will find it hard going against Labour, but will probably pick off some Tory seats (but not as many as they think).
"We will seek to negotiate a better deal with the EU. One that protects jobs and workers' rights and ...
We will then put that deal to the British people in a confirmatory referendum with the other option being to Remain.
We will allow Labour members and MPs to campaign for whichever option they personally support."
Yes, that's where I expect us to end up. It's a perfectly reasonable position IMO (much better than "we'll try to negotiate a deal and then we'll campaign against it in a referendum", which is just ridiculous), though it may suffer from not being an extreme position in a polarised country.
This seems like a blindingly obvious position to take to me, what I'm scratching my head about is why Labour is taking so long to get there, when:
1) The number of Leave voters impressed by the remaining ambiguity must be statistically indistinguishable from zero 2) Corbyn's main USP for people who weren't hard-left was as a straight-talker, and every time he goes on telly to defend the current triangulation he looks like a weasel
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
Mmm.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
Yes, Corbyn will try the same strategy as last time and hedge his bets.
However it runs the risk of Labour being squeezed by the LDs in Remain areas and the Brexit Party and Boris in Leave areas but he can say talking about other things while being non commital on Brexit boosted Labour in 2017 so he will do so again
We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.
To the extent the LDs and Greens have no chance winning Leave seats like Wigan, Bolsover and Dagenham and Ashfield, only Labour do, correct
Can I ask - what does HYUFD stand for?
I’m curious, too. Have your ultimate fantasy delivered ?
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
Mmm.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
Yes, Corbyn will try the same strategy as last time and hedge his bets.
However it runs the risk of Labour being squeezed by the LDs in Remain areas and the Brexit Party and Boris in Leave areas but he can say talking about other things while being non commital on Brexit boosted Labour in 2017 so he will do so again
We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.
To the extent the LDs and Greens have no chance winning Leave seats like Wigan, Bolsover and Dagenham and Ashfield, only Labour do, correct
Can I ask - what does HYUFD stand for?
I’m curious, too. Have your ultimate fantasy delivered ?
Yes, that's where I expect us to end up. It's a perfectly reasonable position IMO (much better than "we'll try to negotiate a deal and then we'll campaign against it in a referendum", which is just ridiculous), though it may suffer from not being an extreme position in a polarised country.
And that, for me, will classify as THE PIVOT. I don't think that Labour Remainers can reasonably ask for or expect more.
The key thing is that a Referendum with Remain as an option is offered. This ought to be enough for Remainers to flock to in great numbers. It's how Brexit gets canned since I'm confident that such a Referendum, Soft Leave vs Remain, would go to Remain.
Interesting question is, if Labour win as largest party needing SNP and LD support to govern, would they be able to anything of much significance EXCEPT cancel Brexit? Certainly much of the Corbynite agenda would be seem to be off limits.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
Mmm.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
Yes, Corbyn will try the same strategy as last time and hedge his bets.
However it runs the risk of Labour being squeezed by the LDs in Remain areas and the Brexit Party and Boris in Leave areas but he can say talking about other things while being non commital on Brexit boosted Labour in 2017 so he will do so again
We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.
To the extent the LDs and Greens have no chance winning Leave seats like Wigan, Bolsover and Dagenham and Ashfield, only Labour do, correct
Can I ask - what does HYUFD stand for?
Nothing in particular, I first used it about 15 years ago and there is no point changing it now
Yes, that's where I expect us to end up. It's a perfectly reasonable position IMO (much better than "we'll try to negotiate a deal and then we'll campaign against it in a referendum", which is just ridiculous), though it may suffer from not being an extreme position in a polarised country.
And that, for me, will classify as THE PIVOT. I don't think that Labour Remainers can reasonably ask for or expect more.
The key thing is that a Referendum with Remain as an option is offered. This ought to be enough for Remainers to flock to in great numbers. It's how Brexit gets canned since I'm confident that such a Referendum, Soft Leave vs Remain, would go to Remain.
Interesting question is, if Labour win as largest party needing SNP and LD support to govern, would they be able to anything of much significance EXCEPT cancel Brexit? Certainly much of the Corbynite agenda would be seem to be off limits.
Yes, that's where I expect us to end up. It's a perfectly reasonable position IMO (much better than "we'll try to negotiate a deal and then we'll campaign against it in a referendum", which is just ridiculous), though it may suffer from not being an extreme position in a polarised country.
And that, for me, will classify as THE PIVOT. I don't think that Labour Remainers can reasonably ask for or expect more.
The key thing is that a Referendum with Remain as an option is offered. This ought to be enough for Remainers to flock to in great numbers. It's how Brexit gets canned since I'm confident that such a Referendum, Soft Leave vs Remain, would go to Remain.
Interesting question is, if Labour win as largest party needing SNP and LD support to govern, would they be able to anything of much significance EXCEPT cancel Brexit? Certainly much of the Corbynite agenda would be seem to be off limits.
IMHO, if we had a general election now, support for the Conservatives and Labour would move towards the high twenties, and for Lib Dems and TBP, down towards the low teens. Not because of any love for either the Conservatives or Labour, but simply to keep the other one out.
Yes, I can see that too. I do hope we get this autumn election because it will be the most fascinating of modern times. Many different outcomes, radically different impacts on the future direction of the country. Brexit or not? Socialism or small state? End of 2 party politics? Coalition? Majority or another paralytically hung parliament? Phew what a scorcher.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
Mmm.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
Yes, Corbyn will try the same strategy as last time and hedge his bets.
However it runs the risk of Labour being squeezed by the LDs in Remain areas and the Brexit Party and Boris in Leave areas but he can say talking about other things while being non commital on Brexit boosted Labour in 2017 so he will do so again
We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.
To the extent the LDs and Greens have no chance winning Leave seats like Wigan, Bolsover and Dagenham and Ashfield, only Labour do, correct
Can I ask - what does HYUFD stand for?
I’m curious, too. Have your ultimate fantasy delivered ?
IMHO, if we had a general election now, support for the Conservatives and Labour would move towards the high twenties, and for Lib Dems and TBP, down towards the low teens. Not because of any love for either the Conservatives or Labour, but simply to keep the other one out.
Yes, I can see that too. I do hope we get this autumn election because it will be the most fascinating of modern times. Many different outcomes, radically different impacts on the future direction of the country. Brexit or not? Socialism or small state? End of 2 party politics? Coalition? Majority or another paralytically hung parliament? Phew what a scorcher.
In a seat like Cambridge with a vigorous Labour Remainer as an MP, would the Labour vote get hammered? My guess is no.
So right there is our difference of view. I think in a general election, if the Lib Dems are the only main party (in England) offering the chance to cancel Brexit, the votes of those people for whom cancelling Brexit is a priority will go in great numbers (many millions) to that party. With Leavers split between Tory and BP, this spells annihilation for Labour. Don't see how they can take that risk. There is a risk the other way, of course, but IMO it is much smaller.
IMHO, if we had a general election now, support for the Conservatives and Labour would move towards the high twenties, and for Lib Dems and TBP, down towards the low teens. Not because of any love for either the Conservatives or Labour, but simply to keep the other one out.
Pre October maybe, post October if the Commons extend again and the EU agrees I would expect the Brexit Party to overtake the Tories and the LDs to overtake Labour as Yougov showed
I suppose principles are a thing of the past when political parties based policy on them and left it to the voters to decide
I know, depressing in a way. I guess for Corbyn & Co, because they have just the one shot at power, they will not want to adopt a position on something they consider a second order issue which they think will actively damage their chances of that one shot finding the target.
Pre October maybe, post October if the Commons extend again and the EU agrees I would expect the Brexit Party to overtake the Tories and the LDs to overtake Labour as Yougov showed
But not with the pivot. The pivot puts Labour 1st.
IMHO, if we had a general election now, support for the Conservatives and Labour would move towards the high twenties, and for Lib Dems and TBP, down towards the low teens. Not because of any love for either the Conservatives or Labour, but simply to keep the other one out.
Yes, I can see that too. I do hope we get this autumn election because it will be the most fascinating of modern times. Many different outcomes, radically different impacts on the future direction of the country. Brexit or not? Socialism or small state? End of 2 party politics? Coalition? Majority or another paralytically hung parliament? Phew what a scorcher.
Who's advocating a small state ???
Not Boris that's for sure. I reckon he will push for lots of spending on big infrastructure projects. And hope that they all end up with his name on them.
Pre October maybe, post October if the Commons extend again and the EU agrees I would expect the Brexit Party to overtake the Tories and the LDs to overtake Labour as Yougov showed
But not with the pivot. The pivot puts Labour 1st.
OK, that was the last time.
The pivot also loses Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North to the Brexit Party and Boris Tories though and apparently Labour internal polling shows some Remainers will stick with the LDs rather than return to Labour even with the pivot to EUref2
HYUFD - do you genuinely believe BXP could win a General Election with no policies whatsoever? They would be a spoiler to the Tory vote, no more, no less.
YouGov poll obviously conducted before last night's revelations.
But even so, shows an incredibly strong position for Johnson....
‘Incredibly’ is indeed borne out by the numbers....
47% Johnson can be trusted 40% Johnson cannot be trusted
52% Hunt can be trusted 31% Hunt cannot be trusted
31% unhappy if Hunt leader as well
Are those the entryists?
No - there isn’t much correlation between unhappy with and cannot be trusted. About a third of Boris’ support seem quite happy with his being an inveterate liar.
If he wasn't that, he wouldn't be a senior politician.
So you’re saying the corresponding figures for Hunt show he’s not thought to be sufficiently deceitful ?
They would appear to show he's more successful at it.
Whole years go by without my encountering anyone famous, but I saw Dominic Grieve hanging out back the Royal Courts of Justice - and Jeremy Hunt walking briskly to Waterloo Station last night. Both looked rather pleased with themselves.
I saw Professor Sir John Curtice at Glasgow Queen Street station once. He didn't recognise me.
I have spotted him a few times at Glasgow Central, but never at Glasgow Queen Street. In the year when I studied at Strathclyde I didn't see him on campus once.
A couple of weeks ago I was approaching Central when I had a moment of clarity about how to communicate the reasoning behind my Brexit position which probably wouldn't have been interesting to anyone even here, but was philosophically neater than previous attemts to parse it. Then I saw Lord Forsyth looking disorientated outside Greggs on the corner outside the station. In the few seconds it took me to work out whose familiar face I had just passed, my moment of Brexit clarity evaporated.
HYUFD - do you genuinely believe BXP could win a General Election with no policies whatsoever? They would be a spoiler to the Tory vote, no more, no less.
If PM Boris announced that Brexit would be postponed indefinitely, I think BXP would certainly outpoll the Conservatives.
HYUFD - do you genuinely believe BXP could win a General Election with no policies whatsoever? They would be a spoiler to the Tory vote, no more, no less.
If Brexit is not delivered by the end of October yes as at that point delivering Brexit will be the only policy that matters to most Leave voters.
I can count on one hand the Tory Leave voters I know who would not vote Brexit Party if we are still in the EU in November, they would not be just a spoiler to the Tory vote, they would overtake the Tories in votes and seats
HYUFD - do you genuinely believe BXP could win a General Election with no policies whatsoever? They would be a spoiler to the Tory vote, no more, no less.
If PM Boris announced that Brexit would be postponed indefinitely, I think BXP would certainly outpoll the Conservatives.
Yes, that's where I expect us to end up. It's a perfectly reasonable position IMO (much better than "we'll try to negotiate a deal and then we'll campaign against it in a referendum", which is just ridiculous), though it may suffer from not being an extreme position in a polarised country.
And that, for me, will classify as THE PIVOT. I don't think that Labour Remainers can reasonably ask for or expect more.
The key thing is that a Referendum with Remain as an option is offered. This ought to be enough for Remainers to flock to in great numbers. It's how Brexit gets canned since I'm confident that such a Referendum, Soft Leave vs Remain, would go to Remain.
Interesting question is, if Labour win as largest party needing SNP and LD support to govern, would they be able to anything of much significance EXCEPT cancel Brexit? Certainly much of the Corbynite agenda would be seem to be off limits.
Socialism deferred indefinitely?
In reality they wouldnt effectively cancel Brexit any more than the Tories are delivering it. We might revoke A50 but the clamour for Brexit will still be there, and there will exist a leave party with a shot at winning a GE for the next 10 years even if we revoke.
Not many remainers seem to have thought that through.
An end to an impartial civil service? You think it's impartial now?
I know right. It's like remainers complaining about the biased BBC - biased against their side! What if the civil service should start emplyong some conservatives, or even some eurosceptics! Heaven forfend!
Nobody yet. But to go with a No Deal Brexit I would expect this to be the direction of travel for either or both of the Cons and the BP.
There's a 'libertarian pirate island' fringe in the Conservatives but there's sod all votes for it in reality.
Lots of people, across the political spectrum, are in favour of making the state smaller in certain areas ie when its to the detriment of 'people like them' but they're all happy to make the state bigger when its to the benefit of 'people like us'.
And here we see the crux of british society. There isnt any real life discrimination against you if you are different race, religion or nationality. Its whether youve got owt or nowt.
It's the first rung of the ladder. But the Guardian will see everything as intersectional. If you are a white straight male, you have it easy, everyone else is a victim.
Not uncommon for migrant families from some parts of the world to come over with quite substantial professional qualifications and quickly fall into the middle classes as if they had been there for generations. Yet schemes like this will give their offspring help.
Nobody yet. But to go with a No Deal Brexit I would expect this to be the direction of travel for either or both of the Cons and the BP.
There's a 'libertarian pirate island' fringe in the Conservatives but there's sod all votes for it in reality.
Lots of people, across the political spectrum, are in favour of making the state smaller in certain areas ie when its to the detriment of 'people like them' but they're all happy to make the state bigger when its to the benefit of 'people like us'.
The same group who believe in a smaller state go apeshit when the richest cohort in the country are asked to pay their share of the BBC......it is a strange world.
In reality they wouldnt effectively cancel Brexit any more than the Tories are delivering it. We might revoke A50 but the clamour for Brexit will still be there, and there will exist a leave party with a shot at winning a GE for the next 10 years even if we revoke.
Not many remainers seem to have thought that through.
That's a very good point. It's why I much favour the Withdrawal Agreement over another Referendum.
And here we see the crux of british society. There isnt any real life discrimination against you if you are different race, religion or nationality. Its whether youve got owt or nowt.
It's the first rung of the ladder. But the Guardian will see everything as intersectional. If you are a white straight male, you have it easy, everyone else is a victim.
Not uncommon for migrant families from some parts of the world to come over with quite substantial professional qualifications and quickly fall into the middle classes as if they had been there for generations. Yet schemes like this will give their offspring help.
It is specifically open to candidates from a lower socio-economic background (that does not rule out straight white males).
There's a 'libertarian pirate island' fringe in the Conservatives but there's sod all votes for it in reality.
Lots of people, across the political spectrum, are in favour of making the state smaller in certain areas ie when its to the detriment of 'people like them' but they're all happy to make the state bigger when its to the benefit of 'people like us'.
OK, last para very true, but 'small state' tends to map to 'slash taxes' and there is plenty of support for that - so long as it means 'ordinary people' pay less.
Mr. Brom, what happened, or just general silliness?
she liked a tweet saying "please carry on, we must have entertainment at number 10 rather than another 3 years of boredom."
Not the response of someone who took their 'domestic incident' too seriously I guess.
But, but, we are told she was “brutalised”.
I fucking hate Boris, but this was a beat-up. Same goes for Mark Field, for that matter.
I’m fed up with the culture war. Boris is unfit for office because he is lazy, unserious, and has no actual plans for Brexit. Why can’t the media focus on holding him to account instead of bullshit stories about late night arguments?
And here we see the crux of british society. There isnt any real life discrimination against you if you are different race, religion or nationality. Its whether youve got owt or nowt.
It's the first rung of the ladder. But the Guardian will see everything as intersectional. If you are a white straight male, you have it easy, everyone else is a victim.
Not uncommon for migrant families from some parts of the world to come over with quite substantial professional qualifications and quickly fall into the middle classes as if they had been there for generations. Yet schemes like this will give their offspring help.
It is specifically open to candidates from a lower socio-economic background (that does not rule out straight white males).
Yes. I know. Pointing out that the BAME one is unnecessary and should be unlawful.
In reality they wouldnt effectively cancel Brexit any more than the Tories are delivering it. We might revoke A50 but the clamour for Brexit will still be there, and there will exist a leave party with a shot at winning a GE for the next 10 years even if we revoke.
Not many remainers seem to have thought that through.
That's a very good point. It's why I much favour the Withdrawal Agreement over another Referendum.
This is why citizens assemblies are a good thing, on both sides of the debate there has been far too little thinking and working out what happens next.
What proportion of no deal Brexiteers are focused on what happens after no-deal? 5% would be generous
What proportion of those calling for a second referendum for remain have put much thought into how to win it? Or what happens if we lose to no deal? Again 5% would be generous.
Both sides just want to be able to tell the other side, we won, you lost. It has made the country so mad that neither group care much what actually happens after as long as they get the win.
And here we see the crux of british society. There isnt any real life discrimination against you if you are different race, religion or nationality. Its whether youve got owt or nowt.
It's the first rung of the ladder. But the Guardian will see everything as intersectional. If you are a white straight male, you have it easy, everyone else is a victim.
Not uncommon for migrant families from some parts of the world to come over with quite substantial professional qualifications and quickly fall into the middle classes as if they had been there for generations. Yet schemes like this will give their offspring help.
This also gets on my tits. The real discrimination, as you say, is to those with nowt.
It’s a damn site easier for companies to count the number of BAMES, though. Heaven forbid we actually do something about the extraordinary preponderance of posh people in public life.
And here we see the crux of british society. There isnt any real life discrimination against you if you are different race, religion or nationality. Its whether youve got owt or nowt.
It's the first rung of the ladder. But the Guardian will see everything as intersectional. If you are a white straight male, you have it easy, everyone else is a victim.
Not uncommon for migrant families from some parts of the world to come over with quite substantial professional qualifications and quickly fall into the middle classes as if they had been there for generations. Yet schemes like this will give their offspring help.
This also gets on my tits. The real discrimination, as you say, is to those with nowt.
It’s a damn site easier for companies to count the number of BAMES, though. Heaven forbid we actually do something about the extraordinary preponderance of posh people in public life.
"This traineeship is only open to candidates from a BAME or lower socio-economic background"
Is there something difficult to understand about the above?
F1: Bottas half a tenth ahead of Hamilton in third practice. I'll see what the Ladbrokes odds are on him getting the fastest qualifying time (Betfair's just 2.1, which is too tight).
And here we see the crux of british society. There isnt any real life discrimination against you if you are different race, religion or nationality. Its whether youve got owt or nowt.
It's the first rung of the ladder. But the Guardian will see everything as intersectional. If you are a white straight male, you have it easy, everyone else is a victim.
Not uncommon for migrant families from some parts of the world to come over with quite substantial professional qualifications and quickly fall into the middle classes as if they had been there for generations. Yet schemes like this will give their offspring help.
It is specifically open to candidates from a lower socio-economic background (that does not rule out straight white males).
Yes. I know. Pointing out that the BAME one is unnecessary and should be unlawful.
That would be true if middle class BAME candidates had equal opportunities as middle class white candidates. They don't.
But don't want it now. You should pay closer attention to the polls
I do, the Brexit Party win a majority in October if Brexit is not delivered by then if Hunt is Tory leader and are largest party if Boris is Tory leader with Yougov yesterday
The voters actually voted for Brexit in 2016 James Melville in case you forgot, just Parliament refuses to deliver it
The same voters who actually elected that same Parliament a year later. This constant insinuation that the Commons is somehow an undemocratic institution is simultaneously baffling and terrifying.
It doesn't have to be the crime of harassment to be a bit concerning that the individual(s) in question weren't motivated by concern for the well-being of the person they believed might be a victim, but their own self-interest.
As we discussed at the start of the thread, this is nonsense unless John Bercow invents indicative votes of confidence. Otherwise Boris will need to become Prime Minister before we find out if he can command a majority. Likewise Corbyn.
Nobody yet. But to go with a No Deal Brexit I would expect this to be the direction of travel for either or both of the Cons and the BP.
There's a 'libertarian pirate island' fringe in the Conservatives but there's sod all votes for it in reality.
Lots of people, across the political spectrum, are in favour of making the state smaller in certain areas ie when its to the detriment of 'people like them' but they're all happy to make the state bigger when its to the benefit of 'people like us'.
How could the neighbours cause the couple to have a row? Where is the stitch up?
Neighbours who plaster anti Boris posters with EU stars on all over his car, then record his activity and call the police who find all is well and no case to answer, then give the story the Guardian, obviously have an agenda to try and subvert the Leadership race. Hopefully they’ll be done for wasting police time
"Subvert" the race by citing things that actually happened, is a bit close to the modern meaning of "fake news".
What did the police say they found at the scene?
No case to answer and both people fine.
The neighbours called them to get the headline in the paper, don’t let partisanship blind you to that
This is a non-story.
But, a very profitable one.
Assuming he doesn't quit or blow himself up in the next 4 weeks it's allowed me to leverage another £110 of profit on Boris.
There's a 'libertarian pirate island' fringe in the Conservatives but there's sod all votes for it in reality.
Lots of people, across the political spectrum, are in favour of making the state smaller in certain areas ie when its to the detriment of 'people like them' but they're all happy to make the state bigger when its to the benefit of 'people like us'.
OK, last para very true, but 'small state' tends to map to 'slash taxes' and there is plenty of support for that - so long as it means 'ordinary people' pay less.
That is so long as it means 'ordinary people like us' pay less.
And someone else has to pay more.
Any party which proposes to rob Peter to pay Paul will get the support of Paul.
Of course it wont get the support of Peter - but what if Peter hasn't yet been born ?
And here we see the crux of british society. There isnt any real life discrimination against you if you are different race, religion or nationality. Its whether youve got owt or nowt.
It's the first rung of the ladder. But the Guardian will see everything as intersectional. If you are a white straight male, you have it easy, everyone else is a victim.
Not uncommon for migrant families from some parts of the world to come over with quite substantial professional qualifications and quickly fall into the middle classes as if they had been there for generations. Yet schemes like this will give their offspring help.
This also gets on my tits. The real discrimination, as you say, is to those with nowt.
It’s a damn site easier for companies to count the number of BAMES, though. Heaven forbid we actually do something about the extraordinary preponderance of posh people in public life.
"This traineeship is only open to candidates from a BAME or lower socio-economic background"
Is there something difficult to understand about the above?
It could sound like there is a socio economic background that is lower than BAME
We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.
I'm not thinking full-on Remain necessarily.
"We will seek to negotiate a better deal with the EU. One that protects jobs and workers' rights and ...
We will then put that deal to the British people in a confirmatory referendum with the other option being to Remain.
We will allow Labour members and MPs to campaign for whichever option they personally support."
Yes, that's where I expect us to end up. It's a perfectly reasonable position IMO (much better than "we'll try to negotiate a deal and then we'll campaign against it in a referendum", which is just ridiculous), though it may suffer from not being an extreme position in a polarised country.
It would be reasonable if there were a minority of Labour MPs/members who would support remain. It's ludicrous when it is an overwhelming majority, including people like Emily Thornberry and Keir Starmer who would be negoitating it. Essentially it's the same as the first policy, except it allows the likes of Lisa Nandy to not have to go against a manifesto committment.
There's a 'libertarian pirate island' fringe in the Conservatives but there's sod all votes for it in reality.
Lots of people, across the political spectrum, are in favour of making the state smaller in certain areas ie when its to the detriment of 'people like them' but they're all happy to make the state bigger when its to the benefit of 'people like us'.
OK, last para very true, but 'small state' tends to map to 'slash taxes' and there is plenty of support for that - so long as it means 'ordinary people' pay less.
Most people happily support tax cuts for them and tax rises for the rich and less money for welfare (unless they are unemployed) but more money for the NHS.
The Libertarians in the Tory Party tend to be rich enough to be hit by higher taxes even if only for the top income tax rate or higher inheritance tax for estates over £1 million and tend to be rich enough to pay for private healthcare and education so are not affected by increases in funding for core public services
As we discussed at the start of the thread, this is nonsense unless John Bercow invents indicative votes of confidence. Otherwise Boris will need to become Prime Minister before we find out if he can command a majority. Likewise Corbyn.
Surely all it would need is a dozen Tory MPs, who oppose Boris on No Deal, to indicate informally that they will not support him? May could not then in all honesty tell the Queen that Boris should be invited as he is highly likely to be able to command the House.
As we discussed at the start of the thread, this is nonsense unless John Bercow invents indicative votes of confidence. Otherwise Boris will need to become Prime Minister before we find out if he can command a majority. Likewise Corbyn.
Surely all it would need is a dozen Tory MPs, who oppose Boris on No Deal, to indicate informally that they will not support him? May could not then in all honesty tell the Queen that Boris should be invited as he is highly likely to be able to command the House.
Constitutionally i'm not sure that May can even resign unless she can propose a successor. Pre the FTPA, her only course would be to recommend an election with the intention of resigning afterwards.
It doesn't have to be the crime of harassment to be a bit concerning that the individual(s) in question weren't motivated by concern for the well-being of the person they believed might be a victim, but their own self-interest.
That’s not the complaint. The potential crime is that this journalist encouraged, or incited, via Twitter, her thousands of followers to record the private life of two individuals and give the recording to the press. Her motive doesn’t come into it. Even if they were paroled murderers, and she were doing it because of a fear of repeat offending, they would have grounds for complaint.
"This traineeship is only open to candidates from a BAME or lower socio-economic background"
Is there something difficult to understand about the above?
If the traineeship is paying the London Living Wage, in effect it is only open to a rather small group of people ... probably with parents/friends (or at least free accommodation) available in London.
Tough if you are Scottish/Welsh/N Irish from the North or Midlands.
Why doesn't the Guardian foot the accommodation bill?
It would not be a huge amount of money to put 7 interns up in a reasonable London hostel for 6 weeks.
“Here's what it comes down to for me: Conservatives vs. Tories.
“I'm a conservative. I believe in marriage and the family, a small state, the right to life. I believe that marriage is the lifelong union of a man and a woman. I believe in free enterprise, liberty and democracy. I believe in meritocracy. I believe in law and order.
“I'm ashamed that my party thinks that Boris Johnson, a man who in so many ways embodies the opposite of those virtues and values is the right man to lead our party and our country.
…
“There can only be one explanation for that: The Tories run our party. Tories: plutocratic liberals and moral pygmies.”
I suspect the overnight story about the row between Boris and Carrie will blow over. To a large extent questions in the mind of most Party members about his moral fibre have already been priced in.
But if it doesn’t blow over quickly, I just wonder if doubts might begin to set in. And in particular, I’m not aware that Marina Wheeler has made any further public comment since the announcement of their separation and divorce. If she for any reason was tempted to intervene, I do think that could seriously derail Boris with the “Conservatives” (as opposed to “Tories”) referred to above.
In a seat like Cambridge with a vigorous Labour Remainer as an MP, would the Labour vote get hammered? My guess is no.
So right there is our difference of view. I think in a general election, if the Lib Dems are the only main party (in England) offering the chance to cancel Brexit, the votes of those people for whom cancelling Brexit is a priority will go in great numbers (many millions) to that party. With Leavers split between Tory and BP, this spells annihilation for Labour. Don't see how they can take that risk. There is a risk the other way, of course, but IMO it is much smaller.
IMHO, if we had a general election now, support for the Conservatives and Labour would move towards the high twenties, and for Lib Dems and TBP, down towards the low teens. Not because of any love for either the Conservatives or Labour, but simply to keep the other one out.
I agree with that. In a general election , I would be surprised if the combined vote share for the Tories and Labour ended up below 65% - ie similar to 2015 and 2010.
Comments
Assuming he doesn't quit or blow himself up in the next 4 weeks it's allowed me to leverage another £110 of profit on Boris.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/history-will-wonder-how-we-trusted-boris-with-britain/
Has anyone famous ever followed through with a threat to "quit" the country if someone they don't like becomes PM?
I think TBP will struggle organisationally, so may end up with very few seats. 3 million votes and no seats seems rather likely to me.
And I think the LibDems will find it hard going against Labour, but will probably pick off some Tory seats (but not as many as they think).
They are therefore symbols of exclusion and persecution and a hate crime against the indigo people.
1) The number of Leave voters impressed by the remaining ambiguity must be statistically indistinguishable from zero
2) Corbyn's main USP for people who weren't hard-left was as a straight-talker, and every time he goes on telly to defend the current triangulation he looks like a weasel
Have your ultimate fantasy delivered ?
The key thing is that a Referendum with Remain as an option is offered. This ought to be enough for Remainers to flock to in great numbers. It's how Brexit gets canned since I'm confident that such a Referendum, Soft Leave vs Remain, would go to Remain.
Interesting question is, if Labour win as largest party needing SNP and LD support to govern, would they be able to anything of much significance EXCEPT cancel Brexit? Certainly much of the Corbynite agenda would be seem to be off limits.
Socialism deferred indefinitely?
But at that point in his career wouldn't he have been in LA irrespective of who was in government?
OK, that was the last time.
Not the response of someone who took their 'domestic incident' too seriously I guess.
A couple of weeks ago I was approaching Central when I had a moment of clarity about how to communicate the reasoning behind my Brexit position which probably wouldn't have been interesting to anyone even here, but was philosophically neater than previous attemts to parse it. Then I saw Lord Forsyth looking disorientated outside Greggs on the corner outside the station. In the few seconds it took me to work out whose familiar face I had just passed, my moment of Brexit clarity evaporated.
My guess - 2021 and quite a big one.
I can count on one hand the Tory Leave voters I know who would not vote Brexit Party if we are still in the EU in November, they would not be just a spoiler to the Tory vote, they would overtake the Tories in votes and seats
Not many remainers seem to have thought that through.
Lots of people, across the political spectrum, are in favour of making the state smaller in certain areas ie when its to the detriment of 'people like them' but they're all happy to make the state bigger when its to the benefit of 'people like us'.
It's the first rung of the ladder. But the Guardian will see everything as intersectional. If you are a white straight male, you have it easy, everyone else is a victim.
Not uncommon for migrant families from some parts of the world to come over with quite substantial professional qualifications and quickly fall into the middle classes as if they had been there for generations. Yet schemes like this will give their offspring help.
She didn't.
She threatened to leave Scotland if we voted for indy. She left anyway even though we didn't.
I fucking hate Boris, but this was a beat-up.
Same goes for Mark Field, for that matter.
I’m fed up with the culture war.
Boris is unfit for office because he is lazy, unserious, and has no actual plans for Brexit. Why can’t the media focus on holding him to account instead of bullshit stories about late night arguments?
What proportion of no deal Brexiteers are focused on what happens after no-deal? 5% would be generous
What proportion of those calling for a second referendum for remain have put much thought into how to win it? Or what happens if we lose to no deal? Again 5% would be generous.
Both sides just want to be able to tell the other side, we won, you lost. It has made the country so mad that neither group care much what actually happens after as long as they get the win.
No wonder Jezza wants to leave EU.
The real discrimination, as you say, is to those with nowt.
It’s a damn site easier for companies to count the number of BAMES, though. Heaven forbid we actually do something about the extraordinary preponderance of posh people in public life.
Is there something difficult to understand about the above?
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09/10/will-bank-of-englands-independence-fall-as-a-consequence-of-brexit/
https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1142370142862675969
But please, can we have as story every weekend??
And someone else has to pay more.
Any party which proposes to rob Peter to pay Paul will get the support of Paul.
Of course it wont get the support of Peter - but what if Peter hasn't yet been born ?
There's a reason politicians like borrowing
Boris becoming figure of derision?
The Libertarians in the Tory Party tend to be rich enough to be hit by higher taxes even if only for the top income tax rate or higher inheritance tax for estates over £1 million and tend to be rich enough to pay for private healthcare and education so are not affected by increases in funding for core public services
Tough if you are Scottish/Welsh/N Irish from the North or Midlands.
Why doesn't the Guardian foot the accommodation bill?
It would not be a huge amount of money to put 7 interns up in a reasonable London hostel for 6 weeks.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/06/france-pre-race-2019.html
“Here's what it comes down to for me: Conservatives vs. Tories.
“I'm a conservative. I believe in marriage and the family, a small state, the right to life. I believe that marriage is the lifelong union of a man and a woman. I believe in free enterprise, liberty and democracy. I believe in meritocracy. I believe in law and order.
“I'm ashamed that my party thinks that Boris Johnson, a man who in so many ways embodies the opposite of those virtues and values is the right man to lead our party and our country.
…
“There can only be one explanation for that: The Tories run our party. Tories: plutocratic liberals and moral pygmies.”
I suspect the overnight story about the row between Boris and Carrie will blow over. To a large extent questions in the mind of most Party members about his moral fibre have already been priced in.
But if it doesn’t blow over quickly, I just wonder if doubts might begin to set in. And in particular, I’m not aware that Marina Wheeler has made any further public comment since the announcement of their separation and divorce. If she for any reason was tempted to intervene, I do think that could seriously derail Boris with the “Conservatives” (as opposed to “Tories”) referred to above.
“Hell hath no fury …” and all that?
I wish it weren't so but the world has gone quite mad.