The MOST interesting finding in that poll of Tory members is that 65% want a pact with the BXP. Wow, just wow. Purely electorally, they are quite mad - it would finish them off as a national party.
Reading Parris's article (urging Hunt to go personal against Boris), an odd problem for Labour against Boris will be that Corbyn doesn't do personal attacks. Not ever, not even in private. It's not high-mindedness exactly, just that he regards them as a tiresome distraction from the serious business of politics, in the same way that he doesn't bother with attacking Southern Rail when he could be talking about the rail industry as a whole. Leaders don't need to be nasty, but Labour will need a Prescott prominent in the campaign to go fully-fledged personal - possibly Angela Rayner.
A Tory-BXP pact doesn’t need more Labour tribalism.
It isn’t “perfectly legal” to register more than once purely by dint of owning a second property. You have to be spending a significant amount of time there such that it is genuinely a second home, not a holiday home. There is detailed guidance on the electoral commission website.
Anyone who genuinely has a second home and is registered there can vote in the by election.
According to the Welsh Assembly 4.5% of properties within B&R are vacant and 2.2% classified as second or holiday homes.
Those figures are very untrustworthy.
Basically, they rely on second homers and holiday homers to self-declare to Powys Council. I would guess the number is out by a factor of 3 or 4.
You are of course correct that you have to spend significant amount of time at the home (50 per cent or more) to be eligible to vote.
For example, it is in fact illegal to send a message about Green issues in Cumbria by voting in a second home there, if you actually live in Camden.
You are right that some second home owners don’t declare. They do however risk being turned in if they upset the locals.
There is nothing about 50% in the guidance; it simply needs to be demonstrably a home where you spend a significant proportion of your time.
10 per cent of the population now own a second property.
In B&R, you can visit some villages in the winter in mid evening, and in excess of 50 per cent of homes are all dark. Houes after houses after houses, all clearly not in use.
I would guess that on average in B&R, second homers are at least 20 per cent -- and in some picturesque spots even more -- of all the properties.
It is ripe for LibDem vote-harvesting, as Foxy's cunning LibDem mind is already illegally thinking.
More the Tories way of working.
True ... but how many LibDems were on the electoral roll with Tessy Munt in ultra-marginal Wells when she had that spot of difficulty with her single persons discount.
Carrie has about a fortnight to spill the truth about the real Johnson, and set herself up with the proceeds of her story. Even that being a possibility ought to influence the betting.
I don’t see how this Johnson story will harm support for him among his electorate.
It may do.
Johnson's appeal to the faithful rests largely on his supposed appeal amongst the electorate at large. As HYUFD never stops telling us, the Tories poll better when the question is 'how would you vote if Boris were leader?' If the general public turns off the idea of Boris as PM, whether because of little incidents like last night's or for other reasons, there may be some associated backing off by Party members.
I don't think this contest is quite over yet.
No. Johnson's appeal to the faithful rests largely on their being mostly gammon.
It isn’t “perfectly legal” to register more than once purely by dint of owning a second property. You have to be spending a significant amount of time there such that it is genuinely a second home, not a holiday home. There is detailed guidance on the electoral commission website.
Anyone who genuinely has a second home and is registered there can vote in the by election.
According to the Welsh Assembly 4.5% of properties within B&R are vacant and 2.2% classified as second or holiday homes.
Those figures are very untrustworthy.
Basically, they rely on second homers and holiday homers to self-declare to Powys Council. I would guess the number is out by a factor of 3 or 4.
You are of course correct that you have to spend significant amount of time at the home (50 per cent or more) to be eligible to vote.
For example, it is in fact illegal to send a message about Green issues in Cumbria by voting in a second home there, if you actually live in Camden.
You are right that some second home owners don’t declare. They do however risk being turned in if they upset the locals.
There is nothing about 50% in the guidance; it simply needs to be demonstrably a home where you spend a significant proportion of your time.
10 per cent of the population now own a second property.
In B&R, you can visit some villages in the winter in mid evening, and in excess of 50 per cent of homes are all dark. Houes after houses after houses, all clearly not in use.
I would guess that on average in B&R, second homers are at least 20 per cent -- and in some picturesque spots even more -- of all the properties.
It is ripe for LibDem vote-harvesting, as Foxy's cunning LibDem mind is already illegally thinking.
I have not advocated anything illegal. Merely asked the question as to whether such people can vote. Second home ownership is particularly high in the wealthy middle aged and retired, and considering the geography particularly from the West Midlands in central Wales, so a more Brexit inclined demographic.
Though, in yesterdays YouGov LDs were top party in the ABC1's at 27%, Con and BXP each on 20%, Lab on 17% (were 48% immediately after GE 2017).
Is it anywhere near enough to cost Boris the party leadership? Very unlikely, although some higher chance of a snowball effect of revelation after revelation.
Does it impact the Tory chance for an autumn GE? Very much so, if it is a close four way contest then losing even 1-2% can move Westminster seats massively. It seems unlikely that it doesnt move the GE vote by at least 1% as some voters, especially women, move him from a character to a problem.
Surely a car with multiple parking tickets on it should be towed to the pound?
And, ultimately, you'll get called to the magistrates court.
For regularly parking in a permit zone without a permit? I doubt it. In practice, almost certainly not, and I am not convinced about the theory.
I'm actually responsible for parking policy in my borough (such power, and one so young...). A genuine problem is that commuters living outside the borough come on a dfaily basis and park illegally in order to get a seat on commuter trains to London (which tend to fill up at Guildford, next stop closer). They get fined now and then , and see it as an acceptable cost for comfort. Up to now, very little has been done about it.
It seems to me that Boris is suddenly realising he is likely to be PM in the next four weeks and is becoming withdrawn and more eccentric by the day, with the daunting fact he cannot fulfill his promises and may well end up as one of the shortest periods in Office of any PM, if indeed he is able to achieve the confidence of the HOC
In other words he knows in his inner self it will be a disaster for both himself and all of us
You don't have to be a BoJo fan to be disconcerted by next-door neighbours taping politician's private life and sending it to the Guardian.
It is a nuclear arms race.
Once you go nuclear against a political opponent, then you have no come back when your opponents go nuclear against you. Do we want neighbours taping Jo Swinson's home life?
Or Ed Davey's, though that must be stultifyingly dull ?
Wrongdoing is a different matter, but I 'd rather the domestic ups and downs of our politicians remained untaped and out of the newspapers.
Is it anywhere near enough to cost Boris the party leadership? Very unlikely, although some higher chance of a snowball effect of revelation after revelation.
Does it impact the Tory chance for an autumn GE? Very much so, if it is a close four way contest then losing even 1-2% can move Westminster seats massively. It seems unlikely that it doesnt move the GE vote by at least 1% as some voters, especially women, move him from a character to a problem.
I must admit, BJ's ratings among female voters are a known unknown.....whilst those of a certain age may flutter at BJ's bumbling charms, I am not so sure Worcester woman (remember her?) will fall for it. These drip drips about his life, may not lose him the leadership vote, but the Tories do have a problem with women, its only a few months ago that CUK saw 3 Tory females walk out, and thats before Mark Francis took it on himself to "self defend" against a much smaller welsh lady the other night
It seems to me that Boris is suddenly realising he is likely to be PM in the next four weeks and is becoming withdrawn and more eccentric by the day, with the daunting fact he cannot fulfill his promises and may well end up as one of the shortest periods in Office of any PM, if indeed he is able to achieve the confidence of the HOC
In other words he knows in his inner self it will be a disaster for both himself and all of us
Very astute diagnosis, and we know he has form for this kind of self-destructive thinking and behaviour.
Having said that, I wouldn’t like my next door neighbour recording my arguments. I’m more disgusted by the state of his car, to be honest.
I have not advocated anything illegal. Merely asked the question as to whether such people can vote. Second home ownership is particularly high in the wealthy middle aged and retired, and considering the geography particularly from the West Midlands in central Wales, so a more Brexit inclined demographic.
Though, in yesterdays YouGov LDs were top party in the ABC1's at 27%, Con and BXP each on 20%, Lab on 17% (were 48% immediately after GE 2017).
I was only teasing you -- but the laws regarding voting & second homes really do need tightening.
So many affluent people think they can pick and choose where they vote,.
English second homers will certainly be larger than the electoral majority of the winner in some Welsh constituencies, Gwyr, Ynys Mon, Preseli Pembs.
It seems to me that Boris is suddenly realising he is likely to be PM in the next four weeks and is becoming withdrawn and more eccentric by the day, with the daunting fact he cannot fulfill his promises and may well end up as one of the shortest periods in Office of any PM, if indeed he is able to achieve the confidence of the HOC
In other words he knows in his inner self it will be a disaster for both himself and all of us
Very astute diagnosis, and we know he has form for this kind of self-destructive thinking and behaviour.
Having said that, I wouldn’t like my next door neighbour recording my arguments. I’m more disgusted by the state of his car, to be honest.
I think the next door neighbours have tried to stitch him up and agree his attitude to his car and parking fines does give credence to his chaotic reputation
BTW parking in Tokyo works great. You can always find it, but at a price that will often deter you from trying. The magic formula is:
1) Strictly capitalism only. No socialized on-street parking. 2) Land value tax, the result of which is that any bit of land that isn't currently in use, even if only for a few months waiting for construction to start, and even if it's only big enough for one or two cars, turns into a car park.
Mr. B2, the thing that confounds me is the sheer idiocy of MPs.
They know Boris is incompetent. They know he's keener to play hide and seek than keep a promise.
So what if the polls look good now? There isn't an election tomorrow. There'll be an election after the next PM has had months or years in office.
Hunt might not get anyone's heart beating faster, but he seems like a fundamentally decent human being and was Health Secretary for a long time, itself a feat of survival. And we can directly contrast his pretty sensible time in the Foreign Office to Boris'.
I'm not saying Hunt will win, mind. I'm just saying MPs were cretins to back Boris and then to allow themselves to be his glove puppets.
Well, of course there are none so blind as will not see. The problem is "events. dear boy. events".. The feel of death is already gathering round the Tory party, and the majority will be eroded by any new by-election. If I was CCHQ I would be determined not to face the country until late next year at the earliest, Bexit or no Brexit, but they may not be able to control when the axe falls.
By insisting on Halloween, Boris is painting himself into a corner, in much the same way as May did with her red lines. So the political pressure is growing.
Then there is the miasma.. Fields conduct unbecoming, Boris's peccadilloes, the sheer general godawfulness every time a Tory comes on the screen. People are sick of the Tories, just as they were in 1997.
The question is what "terrible beauty" is waiting to be born?
Was there a twinkle in OGH's eye when the "Bonking Boris Bust Up" story hit the newswires ? .... There certainly was.
Our erstwhile Prime Minister most surely is the gift that keeps on giving. Boris will provide more wonderful threads than a host a Savile Row tailors.
Whatever the full story of the latest Boris contretemps turn out to be we may be sure of one thing. It has opened the door to the press on the colourful nature of his private life. Neither is this just a "Guardianista" moment as we may see from the all the front pages.
The question that follows is whether the Conservative members care and whether they dismiss the incident and others that may follow as just part of Boris's "charm" and macho buffoonery.
I suspect they will. Just as the majority of Conservative MP's have overlooked Boris's manifest shortcomings I believe that a substantial majority of members will do likewise. Their mantra seems to be :
"We Want Boris And We Don't Care"
If a former remainer hadn't been manoeuvred into the final ballot I think some Tory members might be wobbling, as it is I think Johnson will walk it whatever comes out. It was a very smart move of the Johnson team to ensure that his final opponent could not win the members ballot.
The issue of the character of the person chosen to be leader is another think that the Tory membership has sacrificed on the altar of Brexit.
The system in the UK is very badly broken - we effectively have the choice of 2 PMs under our voting system and both of those people are selected by tiny unrepresentative groups of members who are moving further and further to the extremes. The duopoly will never be broken with FPTP and the big 2 know it.
I have not advocated anything illegal. Merely asked the question as to whether such people can vote. Second home ownership is particularly high in the wealthy middle aged and retired, and considering the geography particularly from the West Midlands in central Wales, so a more Brexit inclined demographic.
Though, in yesterdays YouGov LDs were top party in the ABC1's at 27%, Con and BXP each on 20%, Lab on 17% (were 48% immediately after GE 2017).
I was only teasing you -- but the laws regarding voting & second homes really do need tightening.
So many affluent people think they can pick and choose where they vote,.
English second homers will certainly be larger than the electoral majority of the winner in some Welsh constituencies, Gwyr, Ynys Mon, Preseli Pembs.
Corbyn might tighten the rules, I expect 2 home ownership benefits Tories the most, possibly Brexit party 2nd, Lib Ds 3rd and Labour a VERY distant last
It seems to me that Boris is suddenly realising he is likely to be PM in the next four weeks and is becoming withdrawn and more eccentric by the day, with the daunting fact he cannot fulfill his promises and may well end up as one of the shortest periods in Office of any PM, if indeed he is able to achieve the confidence of the HOC
In other words he knows in his inner self it will be a disaster for both himself and all of us
Very astute diagnosis, and we know he has form for this kind of self-destructive thinking and behaviour.
Having said that, I wouldn’t like my next door neighbour recording my arguments. I’m more disgusted by the state of his car, to be honest.
I think the next door neighbours have tried to stitch him up and agree his attitude to his car and parking fines does give credence to his chaotic reputation
If you really want to piss off your neighbours in London, park in their spot without a permit. Then do it again, and again.
Is it anywhere near enough to cost Boris the party leadership? Very unlikely, although some higher chance of a snowball effect of revelation after revelation.
Does it impact the Tory chance for an autumn GE? Very much so, if it is a close four way contest then losing even 1-2% can move Westminster seats massively. It seems unlikely that it doesnt move the GE vote by at least 1% as some voters, especially women, move him from a character to a problem.
I must admit, BJ's ratings among female voters are a known unknown.....whilst those of a certain age may flutter at BJ's bumbling charms, I am not so sure Worcester woman (remember her?) will fall for it. These drip drips about his life, may not lose him the leadership vote, but the Tories do have a problem with women, its only a few months ago that CUK saw 3 Tory females walk out, and thats before Mark Francis took it on himself to "self defend" against a much smaller welsh lady the other night
Just because you live with Flopsy, Mopsy, Cottontail and Peter in Powys does not mean you are Welsh.
It seems to me that Boris is suddenly realising he is likely to be PM in the next four weeks and is becoming withdrawn and more eccentric by the day, with the daunting fact he cannot fulfill his promises and may well end up as one of the shortest periods in Office of any PM, if indeed he is able to achieve the confidence of the HOC
In other words he knows in his inner self it will be a disaster for both himself and all of us
Very astute diagnosis, and we know he has form for this kind of self-destructive thinking and behaviour.
Having said that, I wouldn’t like my next door neighbour recording my arguments. I’m more disgusted by the state of his car, to be honest.
I think the next door neighbours have tried to stitch him up and agree his attitude to his car and parking fines does give credence to his chaotic reputation
If you really want to piss off your neighbours in London, park in their spot without a permit. Then do it again, and again.
I think it is much more political than parking his car
A really excellent thread header again on political betting.
The only thing I would add is that I still think Boris himself may call a General Election. He will hate the discipline required to steer legislation through the Commons on a wafer thin (at best) majority.
As Dominic Grieve has said this morning, lots of tories won't support him anyway. Remember that despite 5 rounds of voting nearly half of Boris' MPs didn't support him.
Because, like Labour, the party isn't what it used to be. In both cases, an ideology has taken over from common sense, and any deviance can be excused of a leader who follows that ideology.
The only question will be whether Boris does it before Brexit or after. I don't see how he can get Brexit through the Commons but Gavin Williamson is an effective, albeit rather unpleasant, character and he may try and devise some means of so doing.
But let's assume it has to be before Brexit, then it will be a Brexit or bust election.
A really excellent thread header again on political betting.
The only thing I would add is that I still think Boris himself may call a General Election. He will hate the discipline required to steer legislation through the Commons on a wafer thin (at best) majority.
As Dominic Grieve has said this morning, lots of tories won't support him anyway. Remember that despite 5 rounds of voting nearly half of his MPs didn't support him.
So I think he will go to the country this autumn.
If his plan is to go the country this autumn why on earth would he refuse free publicity debating against Jeremy Hunt?
A really excellent thread header again on political betting.
The only thing I would add is that I still think Boris himself may call a General Election. He will hate the discipline required to steer legislation through the Commons on a wafer thin (at best) majority.
As Dominic Grieve has said this morning, lots of tories won't support him anyway. Remember that despite 5 rounds of voting nearly half of his MPs didn't support him.
So I think he will go to the country this autumn.
It does look like a GE in the autumn is inevitable with a totally unpredictable result, but most likely another deadlocked HOC
A really excellent thread header again on political betting.
The only thing I would add is that I still think Boris himself may call a General Election. He will hate the discipline required to steer legislation through the Commons on a wafer thin (at best) majority.
As Dominic Grieve has said this morning, lots of tories won't support him anyway. Remember that despite 5 rounds of voting nearly half of his MPs didn't support him.
So I think he will go to the country this autumn.
not without polls in favour he won't. There is no guaranteed the Brexit Party support will fold even if a form of Brexit is delivered by Oct31.
Carrie has about a fortnight to spill the truth about the real Johnson, and set herself up with the proceeds of her story. Even that being a possibility ought to influence the betting.
I don’t see how this Johnson story will harm support for him among his electorate.
Does impact his choice of chancellor? Neighbors matter. He’ll want someone hard of hearing in no11.
Liz Truss seems an obvious choice for #11 based off the sum total of recent err events.
You don't have to be a BoJo fan to be disconcerted by next-door neighbours taping politician's private life and sending it to the Guardian.
It is a nuclear arms race.
Once you go nuclear against a political opponent, then you have no come back when your opponents go nuclear against you. Do we want neighbours taping Jo Swinson's home life?
Or Ed Davey's, though that must be stultifyingly dull ?
Wrongdoing is a different matter, but I 'd rather the domestic ups and downs of our politicians remained untaped and out of the newspapers.
Taping ? Hasn’t been a thing for at least a decade.
The neighbour was concerned enough to call the police. In such situations most sensible people use their mobile phones for evidence.
You’ll be complaining someone bugged the chancellor’s dinner speech next.
The Birmingham Ladywood by-election was also the most recent one in which any candidate got a plural multiple of 111 votes.
Have you really gone through every by-election result for every candidate since 1977, to find this out?
Of course I did. How else would I have found out? I was looking for the numbers of votes for candidates in which only 1 digit was used. There are a few single-digit numbers; there are loads of 2-digit numbers from 11 to 99, but there are only about 7 examples of a candidate getting 111 votes. You have to go back to 1977 to find a candidate with a multiple of 111; in this case the National Front candidate got 888 votes.
Impressive,... but have you included 1221 as a multiple of 111 or are you just just looking for results containing just one unique digit?
A really excellent thread header again on political betting.
The only thing I would add is that I still think Boris himself may call a General Election. He will hate the discipline required to steer legislation through the Commons on a wafer thin (at best) majority.
As Dominic Grieve has said this morning, lots of tories won't support him anyway. Remember that despite 5 rounds of voting nearly half of his MPs didn't support him.
So I think he will go to the country this autumn.
not without polls in favour he won't. There is no guaranteed the Brexit Party support will fold even if a form of Brexit is delivered by Oct31.
They would fold but there won't be a Brexit before an election so they won't.
It seems to me that Boris is suddenly realising he is likely to be PM in the next four weeks and is becoming withdrawn and more eccentric by the day, with the daunting fact he cannot fulfill his promises and may well end up as one of the shortest periods in Office of any PM, if indeed he is able to achieve the confidence of the HOC
In other words he knows in his inner self it will be a disaster for both himself and all of us
Very astute diagnosis, and we know he has form for this kind of self-destructive thinking and behaviour.
Having said that, I wouldn’t like my next door neighbour recording my arguments. I’m more disgusted by the state of his car, to be honest.
I think the next door neighbours have tried to stitch him up and agree his attitude to his car and parking fines does give credence to his chaotic reputation
If you really want to piss off your neighbours in London, park in their spot without a permit. Then do it again, and again.
I think it is much more political than parking his car
Yes, but such annoyances are ripe for revenge served cold.
Whole years go by without my encountering anyone famous, but I saw Dominic Grieve hanging out back the Royal Courts of Justice - and Jeremy Hunt walking briskly to Waterloo Station last night. Both looked rather pleased with themselves.
Carrie has about a fortnight to spill the truth about the real Johnson, and set herself up with the proceeds of her story. Even that being a possibility ought to influence the betting.
I don’t see how this Johnson story will harm support for him among his electorate.
Does impact his choice of chancellor? Neighbors matter. He’ll want someone hard of hearing in no11.
Liz Truss seems an obvious choice for #11 based off the sum total of recent err events.
I'm neither hugely for nor hugely against Hunt, but (as you may've noticed) I'm less than enthused by Boris, so would greatly prefer Hunt to win.
When you look in Hunt's chiropteran eyes you just see nothing. Absolutely nothing. He would be better than Boris at being PM but so would Freddie Starr and he's dead.
They don't. This is the wrong question at this moment. If Boris was up against candidates with strong personal values and solidity of life who they also trusted to be the person with the greatest chance of winning an election quite soon, and to achieve leaving the EU, Boris would come second or lower.
We have gone through a few years of painfully disqualifying the obvious alternatives.
It is of course quite possible there is no person alive who stands any chance of doing what Boris is likely to be asked to do. Anyway, trusting Boris has nothing to do with it.
You don't have to be a BoJo fan to be disconcerted by next-door neighbours taping politician's private life and sending it to the Guardian.
It is a nuclear arms race.
Once you go nuclear against a political opponent, then you have no come back when your opponents go nuclear against you. Do we want neighbours taping Jo Swinson's home life?
Or Ed Davey's, though that must be stultifyingly dull ?
Wrongdoing is a different matter, but I 'd rather the domestic ups and downs of our politicians remained untaped and out of the newspapers.
Taping ? Hasn’t been a thing for at least a decade.
The neighbour was concerned enough to call the police. In such situations most sensible people use their mobile phones for evidence.
You’ll be complaining someone bugged the chancellor’s dinner speech next.
LOL.
I am merely pointing out that the lifes of our politicians are unbearable, and no-one with any sense would inflict this upon themselves.
If "concerned neighbour" becomes a weapon in the political arsenal, I am sure the next big LibDem scandal will have input from "concerned neighbours".
Although the Tories have a monopoly on the scandals at the moment, we are never too far away from a LibDem scandal. Or a Labour one, for that matter.
More kindly, Boris has the advantage, so he has something to lose, whereas Hunt has something to gain.
Cowardice is possible, not very Churchillian though.....
Tactical doesn't make sense, he is many points up in the Tory race and behind in the national. If he cant get protect a massive lead against Hunt whilst getting a free opportunity to talk to the GE public then he won't be succesful in the GE campaign.
We saw what the public thought of a hiding PM in the last election.
Under Boris we will neither leave on Oct 31 nor have a GE this year (barring strange events).
You don't have to be a BoJo fan to be disconcerted by next-door neighbours taping politician's private life and sending it to the Guardian.
It is a nuclear arms race.
Once you go nuclear against a political opponent, then you have no come back when your opponents go nuclear against you. Do we want neighbours taping Jo Swinson's home life?
Or Ed Davey's, though that must be stultifyingly dull ?
Wrongdoing is a different matter, but I 'd rather the domestic ups and downs of our politicians remained untaped and out of the newspapers.
I agree to some extent but unfortunately without the evidence it would all be being dismissed by PB Tories and the Johnson-friendly media as fake news, as some bitter "remoaner" making it all up. II never liked him anyway but this has shed light on a different aspect of his character.
I do wish people wouldn’t exaggerate. Is Boris *brutalising* his girlfriend?
I don't think that's what was happening at all. I think she discovered something that sent her into a violent rage. From the reports, it sounds as though she was yelling and he was trying to calm her down. His laptop was involved somehow.
More likely to be an email than porn, I'd have thought?
Mr. B2, the thing that confounds me is the sheer idiocy of MPs.
They know Boris is incompetent. They know he's keener to play hide and seek than keep a promise.
So what if the polls look good now? There isn't an election tomorrow. There'll be an election after the next PM has had months or years in office.
Hunt might not get anyone's heart beating faster, but he seems like a fundamentally decent human being and was Health Secretary for a long time, itself a feat of survival. And we can directly contrast his pretty sensible time in the Foreign Office to Boris'.
I'm not saying Hunt will win, mind. I'm just saying MPs were cretins to back Boris and then to allow themselves to be his glove puppets.
Well, of course there are none so blind as will not see. The problem is "events. dear boy. events".. The feel of death is already gathering round the Tory party, and the majority will be eroded by any new by-election. If I was CCHQ I would be determined not to face the country until late next year at the earliest, Bexit or no Brexit, but they may not be able to control when the axe falls.
By insisting on Halloween, Boris is painting himself into a corner, in much the same way as May did with her red lines. So the political pressure is growing.
Then there is the miasma.. Fields conduct unbecoming, Boris's peccadilloes, the sheer general godawfulness every time a Tory comes on the screen. People are sick of the Tories, just as they were in 1997.
The question is what "terrible beauty" is waiting to be born?
People may be sick of the Tories as they were in 1997, but then the main opposition was a united fluffy cuddly New Labour with Bambi at the helm.
Unless the alternatives can get itheir acts together-which it can't Johnson gets himself a comfortable majority in the low thirties.
Will the Queen send for Hunt instead if Boris cannot command the House? Hunt would have some kind of mandate to be called next, as he was runner up in the leadership.
It seems to me that Boris is suddenly realising he is likely to be PM in the next four weeks and is becoming withdrawn and more eccentric by the day, with the daunting fact he cannot fulfill his promises and may well end up as one of the shortest periods in Office of any PM, if indeed he is able to achieve the confidence of the HOC
In other words he knows in his inner self it will be a disaster for both himself and all of us
Very astute diagnosis, and we know he has form for this kind of self-destructive thinking and behaviour.
Having said that, I wouldn’t like my next door neighbour recording my arguments. I’m more disgusted by the state of his car, to be honest.
It still has a tax disc on, does he realise that is no longer needed? Surprisingly it does suggest he once bothered to get it taxed.
You don't have to be a BoJo fan to be disconcerted by next-door neighbours taping politician's private life and sending it to the Guardian.
It is a nuclear arms race.
Once you go nuclear against a political opponent, then you have no come back when your opponents go nuclear against you. Do we want neighbours taping Jo Swinson's home life?
Or Ed Davey's, though that must be stultifyingly dull ?
Wrongdoing is a different matter, but I 'd rather the domestic ups and downs of our politicians remained untaped and out of the newspapers.
I agree to some extent but unfortunately without the evidence it would all be being dismissed by PB Tories and the Johnson-friendly media as fake news, as some bitter "remoaner" making it all up. II never liked him anyway but this has shed light on a different aspect of his character.
If it were a one-off, it would be lightly shrugged off. He has form though, bundles of it, and this is an untimely reminder of a chequered history and a messy and chaotic private life.
Just to note that the female climate change activist manhandled by Tory MP Field is a Brecon and Radnorshire voter.
Is there any info on how willing Greenpeace activists are to vote tactically?
There is apparently talk from Plaid Cymru and the Greens of a Remain coalition.
But ... when the LibDems are clear favourites, they are not interested in pacts.
"On working with Plaid Cymru, Jane Dodds said: “We’re very clear we’re going to campaign as Liberal Democrats. We’re not looking at anything that’s different to that.”
I don't see what would make a Plaid Cymru voter tick the LibDem box in a B&R byelection.
Alison Pearson thinks the Johnson's neighbour should be 'named and shamed'.
I think the Telegraph might be looking for a new columnist!
I think the debased parody of a newspaper that the Telegraph has become has exactly the columnist they deserve.
It was a better paper under Conrad Black's ownership.
True, I suppose in the way that the world was probably a slightly less awful place whan GWB was POTUS. I was even known to buy a Saturday copy for the motoring section in those days.
Sounds like the crockery was being flung about by Carrie Symonds. Boris probably best of moving on to another young lady after he gets elected Tory leader.
This is the sleeper question no one seems to be thinking about.
How does that work, exactly?
Theresa May is PM now. Soon Boris (or Hunt) will be party leader.
So May recommends Boris to the Palace; Boris is PM; maybe later Boris falls in a confidence vote but we have been paid out on Boris as next PM.
Or if May somehow knows Boris does not have the support of the party, she could recommend ... who? Not Hunt or any of the beaten candidates. Jeremy Corbyn, perhaps? In which case we are paid out on JC as PM, even if Labour then loses its first confidence vote.
Or May, who knows Boris does not have the support of the party, calls a snap election (pace the FTPA) but then Labour or Conservatives will win so either Boris or Corbyn is next PM (sorry TBP/LD/SNP supporters!).
So the sleeper question is irrelevant. Most PMs in history have had an awkward squad on their own backbenches, including the current one. Boris has to enter Number 10 before he can be forced out again.
Sounds like the crockery was being flung about by Carrie Symonds. Boris probably best of moving on to another young lady after he gets elected Tory leader.
Surely the likelihood is that she found out he _had_ moved on to another young lady.
Surely a car with multiple parking tickets on it should be towed to the pound?
And, ultimately, you'll get called to the magistrates court.
For regularly parking in a permit zone without a permit? I doubt it. In practice, almost certainly not, and I am not convinced about the theory.
I'm actually responsible for parking policy in my borough (such power, and one so young...). A genuine problem is that commuters living outside the borough come on a dfaily basis and park illegally in order to get a seat on commuter trains to London (which tend to fill up at Guildford, next stop closer). They get fined now and then , and see it as an acceptable cost for comfort. Up to now, very little has been done about it.
(Up to now. Ahem.)
You certainly know how to get the Surrey voters on side. Combine that with the revenue being used to lower council tax and we will be talking about a safe Labour council soon enough.
How could the neighbours cause the couple to have a row? Where is the stitch up?
Neighbours who plaster anti Boris posters with EU stars on all over his car, then record his activity and call the police who find all is well and no case to answer, then give the story the Guardian, obviously have an agenda to try and subvert the Leadership race. Hopefully they’ll be done for wasting police time
This is the sleeper question no one seems to be thinking about.
How does that work, exactly?
Theresa May is PM now. Soon Boris (or Hunt) will be party leader.
So May recommends Boris to the Palace; Boris is PM; maybe later Boris falls in a confidence vote but we have been paid out on Boris as next PM.
Or if May somehow knows Boris does not have the support of the party, she could recommend ... who? Not Hunt or any of the beaten candidates. Jeremy Corbyn, perhaps? In which case we are paid out on JC as PM, even if Labour then loses its first confidence vote.
Or May, who knows Boris does not have the support of the party, calls a snap election (pace the FTPA) but then Labour or Conservatives will win so either Boris or Corbyn is next PM (sorry TBP/LD/SNP supporters!).
So the sleeper question is irrelevant. Most PMs in history have had an awkward squad on their own backbenches, including the current one. Boris has to enter Number 10 before he can be forced out again.
If Theresa May does not believe that Boris Johnson commands the confidence of the House, she does not recommend him to the Queen. He, and others presumably, would then seek to establish their credentials for that.
At any time a vote of no confidence could be tabled in Theresa May, which would presumably succeed. If no one could get a vote of confidence passed within 14 days there would then be a general election.
It seems to me that Boris is suddenly realising he is likely to be PM in the next four weeks and is becoming withdrawn and more eccentric by the day, with the daunting fact he cannot fulfill his promises and may well end up as one of the shortest periods in Office of any PM, if indeed he is able to achieve the confidence of the HOC
In other words he knows in his inner self it will be a disaster for both himself and all of us
Very astute diagnosis, and we know he has form for this kind of self-destructive thinking and behaviour.
Having said that, I wouldn’t like my next door neighbour recording my arguments. I’m more disgusted by the state of his car, to be honest.
It still has a tax disc on, does he realise that is no longer needed? Surprisingly it does suggest he once bothered to get it taxed.
I went full bellingcat and worked out the registration using Russian search engines and social networks. It's taxed until 01/05/2020 and MoTed until 28/04/2020.
The MOST interesting finding in that poll of Tory members is that 65% want a pact with the BXP. Wow, just wow. Purely electorally, they are quite mad - it would finish them off as a national party.
Reading Parris's article (urging Hunt to go personal against Boris), an odd problem for Labour against Boris will be that Corbyn doesn't do personal attacks. Not ever, not even in private. It's not high-mindedness exactly, just that he regards them as a tiresome distraction from the serious business of politics, in the same way that he doesn't bother with attacking Southern Rail when he could be talking about the rail industry as a whole. Leaders don't need to be nasty, but Labour will need a Prescott prominent in the campaign to go fully-fledged personal - possibly Angela Rayner.
What will finish the Tories off is not so much a pact with the Brexit Party but failing to deliver Brexit by October 31st regardless of whether Boris or Hunt wins.
As Yougov showed yesterday, deliver Brexit by the end of October and Boris wins a majority with the Tories on 34%, Labour second on 22% and the Brexit Party falling back to 9% as does Hunt with the Tories on 30%, Labour second on 23% and the Brexit Party falling back to 12%.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%
First day in LA over, holy fuck the traffic is terrible. That's my main take away from it.
Don’t stay in LA - go to Brentwood, Beverley, Malibu or down south to the OC
If you get a chance the Huntington in Pasadena is fabulous. It’s the sort of place you wander around and think “gosh, I didn’t know that painting was here”
This is the sleeper question no one seems to be thinking about.
How does that work, exactly?
Theresa May is PM now. Soon Boris (or Hunt) will be party leader.
So May recommends Boris to the Palace; Boris is PM; maybe later Boris falls in a confidence vote but we have been paid out on Boris as next PM.
Or if May somehow knows Boris does not have the support of the party, she could recommend ... who? Not Hunt or any of the beaten candidates. Jeremy Corbyn, perhaps? In which case we are paid out on JC as PM, even if Labour then loses its first confidence vote.
Or May, who knows Boris does not have the support of the party, calls a snap election (pace the FTPA) but then Labour or Conservatives will win so either Boris or Corbyn is next PM (sorry TBP/LD/SNP supporters!).
So the sleeper question is irrelevant. Most PMs in history have had an awkward squad on their own backbenches, including the current one. Boris has to enter Number 10 before he can be forced out again.
No they could no confidence the current government before Johnson is elected. Not sure what happens next but probably May asked to stay and form a national unity government.
Sounds like the crockery was being flung about by Carrie Symonds. Boris probably best of moving on to another young lady after he gets elected Tory leader.
Is Annunziata unattached? That would be a Brexit political union and a half.
So an MP breaks the law and is convicted. 19% of his constituents vote to remove him and he "decides" he will stand again. How breathtakingly arrogant is that.
Not at all
He’s perfectly entitled to stand again. And his voters are perfectly entitled to tell him to sod off
This is the sleeper question no one seems to be thinking about.
How does that work, exactly?
Theresa May is PM now. Soon Boris (or Hunt) will be party leader.
So May recommends Boris to the Palace; Boris is PM; maybe later Boris falls in a confidence vote but we have been paid out on Boris as next PM.
Or if May somehow knows Boris does not have the support of the party, she could recommend ... who? Not Hunt or any of the beaten candidates. Jeremy Corbyn, perhaps? In which case we are paid out on JC as PM, even if Labour then loses its first confidence vote.
Or May, who knows Boris does not have the support of the party, calls a snap election (pace the FTPA) but then Labour or Conservatives will win so either Boris or Corbyn is next PM (sorry TBP/LD/SNP supporters!).
So the sleeper question is irrelevant. Most PMs in history have had an awkward squad on their own backbenches, including the current one. Boris has to enter Number 10 before he can be forced out again.
It is not clear cut and potentially we are about to bump into one of the many fuzzy edges of our constitution.
As I understand it May has to recommend someone to the Queen who is "highly likely" to command the House. It may well have been made clear via the channels that Boris would not be likely to command the House thanks to his remainer MPs.
What will May do? She is very likely not to want to put the Queen in an awkward position. Will she just refrain from resigning and see what happens?
The solution in our system should be a GE imho. No more messing around.
The MOST interesting finding in that poll of Tory members is that 65% want a pact with the BXP. Wow, just wow. Purely electorally, they are quite mad - it would finish them off as a national party.
Reading Parris's article (urging Hunt to go personal against Boris), an odd problem for Labour against Boris will be that Corbyn doesn't do personal attacks. Not ever, not even in private. It's not high-mindedness exactly, just that he regards them as a tiresome distraction from the serious business of politics, in the same way that he doesn't bother with attacking Southern Rail when he could be talking about the rail industry as a whole. Leaders don't need to be nasty, but Labour will need a Prescott prominent in the campaign to go fully-fledged personal - possibly Angela Rayner.
What will finish the Tories off is not so much a pact with the Brexit Party but failing to deliver Brexit by October 31st regardless of whether Boris or Hunt wins.
As Yougov showed yesterday, deliver Brexit by the end of October and Boris wins a majority with the Tories on 34%, Labour second on 22% and the Brexit Party falling back to 9% as does Hunt with the Tories on 30%, Labour second on 23% and the Brexit Party falling back to 30%.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second and the Tories and Labour tied for third. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second and Labour third
I love the precision of your predictions, given they are so certain could we perhaps get the percentages to 1 decimal place along with the exact seat numbers?
Dominic Grieve is going to end up giving us Nigel Garage as PM. He's far too clever for his own good.
His problem is hes a fanatic, who people pretend is not one because he is intelligent. Hes risked no deal repeatedly and self righteously. But like any fanatic he pursues things beyond all reason and no amount of undoubted intellect, nor even good intentions, can prevent that fanaticism undermining what he wants
Carrie has about a fortnight to spill the truth about the real Johnson, and set herself up with the proceeds of her story. Even that being a possibility ought to influence the betting.
Perhaps, perhaps not. We must assume the couple still have feelings for each other but in any case, voters have already priced in Boris's colourful and at times disreputable private life.
The other neighbours (not the ones that were so concerned they recorded the row and went to the Guardian with it) said that Carrie was screaming and Boris was much quieter
So an MP breaks the law and is convicted. 19% of his constituents vote to remove him and he "decides" he will stand again. How breathtakingly arrogant is that.
He sounds more like a football manager, whose team have lost twenty games and languish at the foot of the table, saying "I don't need to go. I can sort it. I have the full backing of the Board."
I think it's a shameful violation of Jeremy Corbyn's private life that he was recorded at that wreath-laying. There's no direct evidence he did anything criminal there so we should all just ignore it. Politicians have a right to a private life.
Comments
A Tory-BXP pact doesn’t need more Labour tribalism.
Though, in yesterdays YouGov LDs were top party in the ABC1's at 27%, Con and BXP each on 20%, Lab on 17% (were 48% immediately after GE 2017).
Does it impact the Tory chance for an autumn GE? Very much so, if it is a close four way contest then losing even 1-2% can move Westminster seats massively. It seems unlikely that it doesnt move the GE vote by at least 1% as some voters, especially women, move him from a character to a problem.
(Up to now. Ahem.)
I cannot see myself voting for either Labour or Conservative for the forseeable, though have voted for each in the past.
I'm neither hugely for nor hugely against Hunt, but (as you may've noticed) I'm less than enthused by Boris, so would greatly prefer Hunt to win.
In other words he knows in his inner self it will be a disaster for both himself and all of us
It is a nuclear arms race.
Once you go nuclear against a political opponent, then you have no come back when your opponents go nuclear against you. Do we want neighbours taping Jo Swinson's home life?
Or Ed Davey's, though that must be stultifyingly dull ?
Wrongdoing is a different matter, but I 'd rather the domestic ups and downs of our politicians remained untaped and out of the newspapers.
Having said that, I wouldn’t like my next door neighbour recording my arguments. I’m more disgusted by the state of his car, to be honest.
Can't imagine that happening.
So many affluent people think they can pick and choose where they vote,.
English second homers will certainly be larger than the electoral majority of the winner in some Welsh constituencies, Gwyr, Ynys Mon, Preseli Pembs.
Looks like we're all going to be in safe hands.
1) Strictly capitalism only. No socialized on-street parking.
2) Land value tax, the result of which is that any bit of land that isn't currently in use, even if only for a few months waiting for construction to start, and even if it's only big enough for one or two cars, turns into a car park.
By insisting on Halloween, Boris is painting himself into a corner, in much the same way as May did with her red lines. So the political pressure is growing.
Then there is the miasma.. Fields conduct unbecoming, Boris's peccadilloes, the sheer general godawfulness every time a Tory comes on the screen. People are sick of the Tories, just as they were in 1997.
The question is what "terrible beauty" is waiting to be born?
The issue of the character of the person chosen to be leader is another think that the Tory membership has sacrificed on the altar of Brexit.
The system in the UK is very badly broken - we effectively have the choice of 2 PMs under our voting system and both of those people are selected by tiny unrepresentative groups of members who are moving further and further to the extremes. The duopoly will never be broken with FPTP and the big 2 know it.
The only thing I would add is that I still think Boris himself may call a General Election. He will hate the discipline required to steer legislation through the Commons on a wafer thin (at best) majority.
As Dominic Grieve has said this morning, lots of tories won't support him anyway. Remember that despite 5 rounds of voting nearly half of Boris' MPs didn't support him.
So I think he will go to the country this autumn.
UKIP entryists don't help, either.
The one that voted against even having a Welsh party.
But let's assume it has to be before Brexit, then it will be a Brexit or bust election.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1142326078310178816
Every time I type a letter the whole screen flashes and reloads. Same if I move the mouse within the PB comment area.
I am using Chrome on Apple.
Hasn’t been a thing for at least a decade.
The neighbour was concerned enough to call the police. In such situations most sensible people use their mobile phones for evidence.
You’ll be complaining someone bugged the chancellor’s dinner speech next.
Is Boris *brutalising* his girlfriend?
Edit: but it's fine on Firefox and on the Samsung browser. So just a chrome thing.
That 100/1 tip on here does look really rather tasty! I'm on at 11/1 and feeling chipper.
More kindly, Boris has the advantage, so he has something to lose, whereas Hunt has something to gain.
We have gone through a few years of painfully disqualifying the obvious alternatives.
It is of course quite possible there is no person alive who stands any chance of doing what Boris is likely to be asked to do. Anyway, trusting Boris has nothing to do with it.
I am merely pointing out that the lifes of our politicians are unbearable, and no-one with any sense would inflict this upon themselves.
If "concerned neighbour" becomes a weapon in the political arsenal, I am sure the next big LibDem scandal will have input from "concerned neighbours".
Although the Tories have a monopoly on the scandals at the moment, we are never too far away from a LibDem scandal. Or a Labour one, for that matter.
Tactical doesn't make sense, he is many points up in the Tory race and behind in the national. If he cant get protect a massive lead against Hunt whilst getting a free opportunity to talk to the GE public then he won't be succesful in the GE campaign.
We saw what the public thought of a hiding PM in the last election.
Under Boris we will neither leave on Oct 31 nor have a GE this year (barring strange events).
I agree to some extent but unfortunately without the evidence it would all be being dismissed by PB Tories and the Johnson-friendly media as fake news, as some bitter "remoaner" making it all up. II never liked him anyway but this has shed light on a different aspect of his character.
More likely to be an email than porn, I'd have thought?
Unless the alternatives can get itheir acts together-which it can't Johnson gets himself a comfortable majority in the low thirties.
I can report everything was quiet next door overnight but I've got my recording equipment ready just in case...
https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1142186051257155584?s=21
But ... when the LibDems are clear favourites, they are not interested in pacts.
"On working with Plaid Cymru, Jane Dodds said: “We’re very clear we’re going to campaign as Liberal Democrats. We’re not looking at anything that’s different to that.”
I don't see what would make a Plaid Cymru voter tick the LibDem box in a B&R byelection.
He's got the ambition of Littlefinger and the competence of Jar Jar Binks.
Theresa May is PM now. Soon Boris (or Hunt) will be party leader.
So May recommends Boris to the Palace; Boris is PM; maybe later Boris falls in a confidence vote but we have been paid out on Boris as next PM.
Or if May somehow knows Boris does not have the support of the party, she could recommend ... who? Not Hunt or any of the beaten candidates. Jeremy Corbyn, perhaps? In which case we are paid out on JC as PM, even if Labour then loses its first confidence vote.
Or May, who knows Boris does not have the support of the party, calls a snap election (pace the FTPA) but then Labour or Conservatives will win so either Boris or Corbyn is next PM (sorry TBP/LD/SNP supporters!).
So the sleeper question is irrelevant. Most PMs in history have had an awkward squad on their own backbenches, including the current one. Boris has to enter Number 10 before he can be forced out again.
Combine that with the revenue being used to lower council tax and we will be talking about a safe Labour council soon enough.
He's far too clever for his own good.
At any time a vote of no confidence could be tabled in Theresa May, which would presumably succeed. If no one could get a vote of confidence passed within 14 days there would then be a general election.
As Yougov showed yesterday, deliver Brexit by the end of October and Boris wins a majority with the Tories on 34%, Labour second on 22% and the Brexit Party falling back to 9% as does Hunt with the Tories on 30%, Labour second on 23% and the Brexit Party falling back to 12%.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
If you get a chance the Huntington in Pasadena is fabulous. It’s the sort of place you wander around and think “gosh, I didn’t know that painting was here”
He’s perfectly entitled to stand again. And his voters are perfectly entitled to tell him to sod off
As I understand it May has to recommend someone to the Queen who is "highly likely" to command the House.
It may well have been made clear via the channels that Boris would not be likely to command the House thanks to his remainer MPs.
What will May do? She is very likely not to want to put the Queen in an awkward position. Will she just refrain from resigning and see what happens?
The solution in our system should be a GE imho. No more messing around.
Are those the entryists?
We read next day that the Board have fired him.