Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into an unelectable death cult if it's not one already.
Rory is anti tax cuts and anti hard Brexit, his agenda was more LD than Tory.
He may as well join Umunna in the LDs if he really wants to be PM, there is little room for a pro EU, anti tax cut 2nd Tory Party
He's anti stupid and irresponsible tax cuts, which is bang slap in the middle of Conservativism. And he's anti a chaotic ideologically-driven crash-out which would destroy jobs and disrupt citizens' lives, which is pure Conservativism.
You and Rory are really Peelite Liberals not Tories
In that case, most Tory leaders are not Tories. Thatcher, Churchill, Macmillan, Cameron, The lot.
Many Tory PMs have elements of liberalism and indeed Churchill was a Liberal at one stage but most of them also cut taxes when they could and listened to what their voters wanted, the vast majority of Tories now want Brexit, Deal or No Deal
The clever, ruthless way Boris and his team have commanded and manipulated this entire election, gives me very very very faint hope he might not be a total disaster as PM.
Faint. I did say faint. Faint hope.
The reason it is faint is that this part is within his control and he has probably spent most of his time in the last few years working toward it. But he cannot control parliament so easily, or the EU.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement remember, he wants to deliver Brexit and a Deal but needs to be elected leader first and has now eliminated his most dangerous opponent, Raab and the candidate with the most momentum, Stewart
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
The key to Boris getting a deal through parliament by the end of October is simple. Take May's WA and massively increase the transition period from two years to (say) six or eight. This kicks the backstop into row Z, and gives years rather than three months to reach a final settlement.
It is the backstop that creates all the problems for the ERG so they can vote for Boris's WA with the cover story (which may even be true) that it will allow the development of technical solutions to the Irish border problem.
Extending the transition period is so obvious a solution that I fear if it were possible for that to be the answer it would have been tried by now. With so many wanting out now, no matter what, and others wanting remain now, no matter how soft the alternative or long the transition, how does the extend transition plan get more votes than the WA already achieved? Some backed it only on sufference anyway, will they all stick around when promised the period where we are even more tied to EU rules in transition is to be extended?
The clever, ruthless way Boris and his team have commanded and manipulated this entire election, gives me very very very faint hope he might not be a total disaster as PM.
Faint. I did say faint. Faint hope.
The reason it is faint is that this part is within his control and he has probably spent most of his time in the last few years working toward it. But he cannot control parliament so easily, or the EU.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement remember, he wants to deliver Brexit and a Deal but needs to be elected leader first and has now eliminated his most dangerous opponent, Raab and the candidate with the most momentum, Stewart
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into an unelectable death cult if it's not one already.
Rory is anti tax cuts and anti hard Brexit, his agenda was more LD than Tory.
He may as well join Umunna in the LDs if he really wants to be PM, there is little room for a pro EU, anti tax cut 2nd Tory Party
It's an amusing thought that Margaret Thatcher's pro-European views would disqualify her as a Tory by present standards.
Thatcher also cut taxes and would have backed Leave in the referendum (she endorsed IDS and almost certainly Redwood after all)
"Would have" backed Leave in the referendum?
Surely you've discussed it with her many times ...
Well it was good enough for Kylo Ren and Darth Vader's mask
So that's good riddance to the centre ground and good riddance to Northern Ireland.
Your little narrow band of extremists won't win a General Election. Just so you know.
Rory is not the centre ground. Everyone insists on portraying themselves, or most especially die-hard remainers as the "centre".
As for NI, if that went it would be much better for our taxes and resolve this whole problem neatly.
Stewart was not a die-hard remainer. It's kind of obvious from the way he batted strongly for May's deal, which was to leave.
Leave in name only. Even Ken Clarke backed it.
90% of Tory MPs backed it, not only the Clarke's of the world. It seems very weird to categorise it based on his support, rather than, say, Leaver Boris.
The clever, ruthless way Boris and his team have commanded and manipulated this entire election, gives me very very very faint hope he might not be a total disaster as PM.
Faint. I did say faint. Faint hope.
The reason it is faint is that this part is within his control and he has probably spent most of his time in the last few years working toward it. But he cannot control parliament so easily, or the EU.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement remember, he wants to deliver Brexit and a Deal but needs to be elected leader first and has now eliminated his most dangerous opponent, Raab and the candidate with the most momentum, Stewart
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Yes - that leaves six weeks. So when have you got the Northern Ireland referendum crayoned in for?
The clever, ruthless way Boris and his team have commanded and manipulated this entire election, gives me very very very faint hope he might not be a total disaster as PM.
Faint. I did say faint. Faint hope.
The reason it is faint is that this part is within his control and he has probably spent most of his time in the last few years working toward it. But he cannot control parliament so easily, or the EU.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement remember, he wants to deliver Brexit and a Deal but needs to be elected leader first and has now eliminated his most dangerous opponent, Raab and the candidate with the most momentum, Stewart
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
PS Don't forget the legislation that will be needed after the Withdrawal Agreement is approved. Last time around I believe people were allowing nearly two months for that.
PPS Don't forget the Summer Recess.
Also it takes 2 weeks from an election for Parliament to be set up and for a Queen's speech to be held. And you need 5 weeks for an election campaign - to be blunt unless Boris keeps Parliament around and calls it by July 31st he can't do it...
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into an unelectable death cult if it's not one already.
Rory is anti tax cuts and anti hard Brexit, his agenda was more LD than Tory.
He may as well join Umunna in the LDs if he really wants to be PM, there is little room for a pro EU, anti tax cut 2nd Tory Party
It's an amusing thought that Margaret Thatcher's pro-European views would disqualify her as a Tory by present standards.
Thatcher also cut taxes and would have backed Leave in the referendum (she endorsed IDS and almost certainly Redwood after all)
When you say Thatcher cut taxes, you forget the first thing she did was increase taxes.
The Thatcher Government also benefited from revenues of North sea oil and gas. It is a shame those revenues were not diverted into a sovereign wealth fund instead of being utilised for tax giveaways for the wealthy...
The clever, ruthless way Boris and his team have commanded and manipulated this entire election, gives me very very very faint hope he might not be a total disaster as PM.
Faint. I did say faint. Faint hope.
The reason it is faint is that this part is within his control and he has probably spent most of his time in the last few years working toward it. But he cannot control parliament so easily, or the EU.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement remember, he wants to deliver Brexit and a Deal but needs to be elected leader first and has now eliminated his most dangerous opponent, Raab and the candidate with the most momentum, Stewart
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into an unelectable death cult if it's not one already.
Rory is anti tax cuts and anti hard Brexit, his agenda was more LD than Tory.
He may as well join Umunna in the LDs if he really wants to be PM, there is little room for a pro EU, anti tax cut 2nd Tory Party
It's an amusing thought that Margaret Thatcher's pro-European views would disqualify her as a Tory by present standards.
Thatcher also cut taxes and would have backed Leave in the referendum (she endorsed IDS and almost certainly Redwood after all)
"Would have" backed Leave in the referendum?
Surely you've discussed it with her many times ...
Thatcher left a letter calling the 'EU project contrary to British intrrests and Parliamentary democracy'
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into an unelectable death cult if it's not one already.
Rory is anti tax cuts and anti hard Brexit, his agenda was more LD than Tory.
He may as well join Umunna in the LDs if he really wants to be PM, there is little room for a pro EU, anti tax cut 2nd Tory Party
He's anti stupid and irresponsible tax cuts, which is bang slap in the middle of Conservativism. And he's anti a chaotic ideologically-driven crash-out which would destroy jobs and disrupt citizens' lives, which is pure Conservativism.
You and Rory are really Peelite Liberals not Tories
In that case, most Tory leaders are not Tories. Thatcher, Churchill, Macmillan, Cameron, The lot.
Many Tory PMs have elements of liberalism and indeed Churchill was a Liberal at one stage but most of them also cut taxes when they could and listened to what their voters wanted, the vast majority of Tories now want Brexit, Deal or No Deal
Silly isn’t it. Brexit whatever the price, is not Conservative.
This - anyone who thinks they as PM can fix this Brexit mess is nothing more than utterly delusional.
Not really. @another_richard spent some time on previous threads outlining the method and everybody's resiling from it because they don't like the implications. It goes like this
* Boris deliberately decieves the selectorate by making false promises * He wins and becomes PM * He goes to Brussels, fails and blames * Tory voters blame the EU * He leaves on October 31st as promised * He calls an election. Enough Tory and Lab Leavers vote with him to bypass the FTPA * The departure neutralises BXP and Lab and Lib split the Remainers. * As per the polls, Boris wins a convincing majority * Post-leave some people are distressed. The Tory distressed are bought off with bribes. The Lab and Lib distressed are left to die and mocked in their dying. * The pound collapses further. * The further devaluation helps with the BoP, but price inelasticity means some goods/services remain in demand * The ones Tories like are left alone, the ones Lab and Lib like are made socially undesirable thru nudges and, eventually, simple abuse. * The talented migrate from the UK, the average remain, the poor suffer what they must. * Public morale is maintained thru stimulated hatreds and simple lies about the outside world. * To maintain these fictions, Internet controls are imposed similar to China's. * The wealthy maintain their grip on society and travel widely, with non-gbp earnings making a deterioration in the UK actively desirable. The political parties compete with themselves and care little about the electorate. The public know less, can do less, and travel less than their parents. Since their needs are provided for thru technological advances, they are little troubled by this... * ...but it is not a place for dreamers.
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into an unelectable death cult if it's not one already.
Rory is anti tax cuts and anti hard Brexit, his agenda was more LD than Tory.
He may as well join Umunna in the LDs if he really wants to be PM, there is little room for a pro EU, anti tax cut 2nd Tory Party
It's an amusing thought that Margaret Thatcher's pro-European views would disqualify her as a Tory by present standards.
Thatcher also cut taxes and would have backed Leave in the referendum (she endorsed IDS and almost certainly Redwood after all)
When you say Thatcher cut taxes, you forget the first thing she did was increase taxes.
The top income tax rate fell from around 90% to just 40% during the Thatcher years
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into a death cult.
How uncharacteristically hysterical!
17.4 million people voted for Brexit. Many of them would vote Tory if there were economic disruptions, provided that Brexit has been delivered. Few will vote Tory if we don’t.
The only thing that will utterly destroy the party is cancelling Brexit. If it doesn’t happen and someone else can be blamed, we will survive, but be out of power for a generation.
Both are true. However, clearly a no=deal crash-out is worse, it will never be forgotten.
If I were Boris I’d try and get a three-way referendum through the House. It’s the only way this will be resolved. If MPs try and take May’s Deal or No Deal out then their names will be on the record and they’ll have to be accountable to their voters.
This HoC will block anything else.
Sanity at last, it is the only sane solution the only question is you stage it a leave/remain then if leave deal/no deal. But I’ve given up on sanity and pragmatic approach as the lunatics take control of the asylum.
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into an unelectable death cult if it's not one already.
Rory is anti tax cuts and anti hard Brexit, his agenda was more LD than Tory.
He may as well join Umunna in the LDs if he really wants to be PM, there is little room for a pro EU, anti tax cut 2nd Tory Party
It's an amusing thought that Margaret Thatcher's pro-European views would disqualify her as a Tory by present standards.
Thatcher also cut taxes and would have backed Leave in the referendum (she endorsed IDS and almost certainly Redwood after all)
When you say Thatcher cut taxes, you forget the first thing she did was increase taxes.
The Thatcher Government also benefited from revenues of North sea oil and gas. It is a shame those revenues were not diverted into a sovereign wealth fund instead of being utilised for tax giveaways for the wealthy...
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into an unelectable death cult if it's not one already.
Rory is anti tax cuts and anti hard Brexit, his agenda was more LD than Tory.
He may as well join Umunna in the LDs if he really wants to be PM, there is little room for a pro EU, anti tax cut 2nd Tory Party
It's an amusing thought that Margaret Thatcher's pro-European views would disqualify her as a Tory by present standards.
Thatcher also cut taxes and would have backed Leave in the referendum (she endorsed IDS and almost certainly Redwood after all)
When you say Thatcher cut taxes, you forget the first thing she did was increase taxes.
The top income tax rate fell from around 90% to just 40% during the Thatcher years
The top rate didn't come down to 40% until 1988, 9 years after she took office.
The clever, ruthless way Boris and his team have commanded and manipulated this entire election, gives me very very very faint hope he might not be a total disaster as PM.
Faint. I did say faint. Faint hope.
The reason it is faint is that this part is within his control and he has probably spent most of his time in the last few years working toward it. But he cannot control parliament so easily, or the EU.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement remember, he wants to deliver Brexit and a Deal but needs to be elected leader first and has now eliminated his most dangerous opponent, Raab and the candidate with the most momentum, Stewart
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Yes - that leaves six weeks. So when have you got the Northern Ireland referendum crayoned in for?
Could be done in a month.
General election by early September, Boris Tory majority.
Backstop referendum by early October in NI, backstop majority.
Withdrawal Agreement minus temporary Customs Union for GB but with NI backstop until a technical solution is found to the Irish border passes by October 31st with the new Tory majority in the Commons.
Negotiations begin on a FTA for GB with the EU from November
The key to Boris getting a deal through parliament by the end of October is simple. Take May's WA and massively increase the transition period from two years to (say) six or eight. This kicks the backstop into row Z, and gives years rather than three months to reach a final settlement.
It is the backstop that creates all the problems for the ERG so they can vote for Boris's WA with the cover story (which may even be true) that it will allow the development of technical solutions to the Irish border problem.
Extending the transition period is so obvious a solution that I fear if it were possible for that to be the answer it would have been tried by now. With so many wanting out now, no matter what, and others wanting remain now, no matter how soft the alternative or long the transition, how does the extend transition plan get more votes than the WA already achieved? Some backed it only on sufference anyway, will they all stick around when promised the period where we are even more tied to EU rules in transition is to be extended?
Because most objections were to the backstop in particular, and the backstop only kicks in if a satisfactory deal is not reached by the end of the transition period. So extending it means: (1) the ERG and others can stop voting against the backstop so we can Brexit on 31/10; (2) there is time to develop a technical solution to the border problem; (3) there is time to reach a satisfactory final settlement with the EU.
Why not already tried? Inflexibility from Theresa May? Imaginary red lines around FOM? It doesn't really matter now.
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into an unelectable death cult if it's not one already.
Rory is anti tax cuts and anti hard Brexit, his agenda was more LD than Tory.
He may as well join Umunna in the LDs if he really wants to be PM, there is little room for a pro EU, anti tax cut 2nd Tory Party
It's an amusing thought that Margaret Thatcher's pro-European views would disqualify her as a Tory by present standards.
Thatcher also cut taxes and would have backed Leave in the referendum (she endorsed IDS and almost certainly Redwood after all)
When you say Thatcher cut taxes, you forget the first thing she did was increase taxes.
The top income tax rate fell from around 90% to just 40% during the Thatcher years
The top rate didn't come down to 40% until 1988, 9 years after she took office.
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Yes - that leaves six weeks. So when have you got the Northern Ireland referendum crayoned in for?
Could be done in a month.
General election by early September, Boris Tory majority.
Backstop referendum by early October in NI, backstop majority.
Withdrawal Agreement minus temporary Customs Union for GB but with NI backstop until a technical solution is found to the Irish border passes by October 31st with the new Tory majority in the Commons.
Negotiations begin on a FTA for GB with the EU from November
Now I specifically told you not to forget the legislation that would have to be passed after the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed by the Commons and before we could leave the EU. And there you are. You've gone and forgotten it anyway!
The other thing you've forgotten, of course, is that you'd not only need legislation to allow for the referendum, but you'd also need to amend the existing legislation that governs referenda if you wanted to hold one so quickly.
Your grasp of the relevant facts seems to be about as tenuous as Boris Johnson's.
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into an unelectable death cult if it's not one already.
Rory is anti tax cuts and anti hard Brexit, his agenda was more LD than Tory.
He may as well join Umunna in the LDs if he really wants to be PM, there is little room for a pro EU, anti tax cut 2nd Tory Party
It's an amusing thought that Margaret Thatcher's pro-European views would disqualify her as a Tory by present standards.
Thatcher also cut taxes and would have backed Leave in the referendum (she endorsed IDS and almost certainly Redwood after all)
When you say Thatcher cut taxes, you forget the first thing she did was increase taxes.
The Thatcher Government also benefited from revenues of North sea oil and gas. It is a shame those revenues were not diverted into a sovereign wealth fund instead of being utilised for tax giveaways for the wealthy...
They went into the general revenue pot.
Exactly and used for tax cuts for the wealthy!
Some of the supply side changes in the 1980s were a good idea, some of them were not really affordable in the long run or socially desirable for a population at peace with itself.
The Thatcher government did make some costly mistakes such as the poll tax but I would have voted for them had I been on the electoral roll at the time because Thatcher for her mistakes was still better than Foot or Kinnock!
Thatcher would have no time for Boris. Wouldn’t have made it to cabinet.
It's nice that you guys have all come round to accepting Thatcher's Unquestionable Greatness.
The liberal left hated Thatcher just as they hate Boris, did not stop Thatcher winning 3 general elections and will not stop Boris winning the next general election either
It's possible nearly all of Stewart's supporters could transfer to Javid in a dogged attempt to counter the alleged tactical voting that's been going on so far. Only problem is we don't know how much of Javid's support is genuine.
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Yes - that leaves six weeks. So when have you got the Northern Ireland referendum crayoned in for?
Could be done in a month.
General election by early September, Boris Tory majority.
Backstop referendum by early October in NI, backstop majority.
Withdrawal Agreement minus temporary Customs Union for GB but with NI backstop until a technical solution is found to the Irish border passes by October 31st with the new Tory majority in the Commons.
Negotiations begin on a FTA for GB with the EU from November
Now I specifically told you not to forget the legislation that would have to be passed after the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed by the Commons and before we could leave the EU. And there you are. You've gone and forgotten it anyway!
The other thing you've forgotten, of course, is that you'd not only need legislation to allow for the referendum, but you'd also need to amend the existing legislation that governs referenda if you wanted to hold one so quickly.
Your grasp of the relevant facts seems to be about as tenuous as Boris Johnson's.
Actually, _are_ you Boris Johnson?
Once Boris has a Tory majority all necessary legislation can be passed as quickly as needed
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Yes - that leaves six weeks. So when have you got the Northern Ireland referendum crayoned in for?
Could be done in a month.
General election by early September, Boris Tory majority.
Backstop referendum by early October in NI, backstop majority.
Withdrawal Agreement minus temporary Customs Union for GB but with NI backstop until a technical solution is found to the Irish border passes by October 31st with the new Tory majority in the Commons.
Negotiations begin on a FTA for GB with the EU from November
I think you could do a GE in that period, but isn't the timing tight for a Referendum? Funds have to be voted for, the Electoral Commission has to clear the question, campaigns have to be formed, nominated and chosen, then there has to be an actual campaign. There were four months and three days between Cameron s announcement and 2016ref. To do the same by Oct 31 you'd need to announce it sometime in the next week and you'll be fighting a GE campaign at the same time. So a two-front war and BXP still extant. That's...brave?
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Yes - that leaves six weeks. So when have you got the Northern Ireland referendum crayoned in for?
Could be done in a month.
General election by early September, Boris Tory majority.
Backstop referendum by early October in NI, backstop majority.
Withdrawal Agreement minus temporary Customs Union for GB but with NI backstop until a technical solution is found to the Irish border passes by October 31st with the new Tory majority in the Commons.
Negotiations begin on a FTA for GB with the EU from November
Now I specifically told you not to forget the legislation that would have to be passed after the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed by the Commons and before we could leave the EU. And there you are. You've gone and forgotten it anyway!
The other thing you've forgotten, of course, is that you'd not only need legislation to allow for the referendum, but you'd also need to amend the existing legislation that governs referenda if you wanted to hold one so quickly.
Your grasp of the relevant facts seems to be about as tenuous as Boris Johnson's.
Actually, _are_ you Boris Johnson?
Once Boris has a Tory majority all necessary legislation can be passed as quickly as needed
And what happens if we have another hung parliament?
The clever, ruthless way Boris and his team have commanded and manipulated this entire election, gives me very very very faint hope he might not be a total disaster as PM.
Faint. I did say faint. Faint hope.
The reason it is faint is that this part is within his control and he has probably spent most of his time in the last few years working toward it. But he cannot control parliament so easily, or the EU.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement remember, he wants to deliver Brexit and a Deal but needs to be elected leader first and has now eliminated his most dangerous opponent, Raab and the candidate with the most momentum, Stewart
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Yes - that leaves six weeks. So when have you got the Northern Ireland referendum crayoned in for?
Could be done in a month.
General election by early September, Boris Tory majority.
Backstop referendum by early October in NI, backstop majority.
Withdrawal Agreement minus temporary Customs Union for GB but with NI backstop until a technical solution is found to the Irish border passes by October 31st with the new Tory majority in the Commons.
Negotiations begin on a FTA for GB with the EU from November
Rory Stewart is not a Lib Dem, he is an old-fashioned patrician Tory in the mould of Heath.
The same Heath who lost 3 out of 4 general elections?
Plus even Heath won in 1970 on the Seldon manifesto which was pretty right wing and with Powell's support for the Tories, Powell did not support him in 1974 and he lost
My predictions have been okay so far. I've got every elimination right apart from Javid in the second round. Could have been better but not disastrous.
At last, a good decision from the COnservatives. I am sorry Mr Smithson, but you misread the prospects of the Tories if you believe that a Garden Gnome with six weeks of ministerial experience, packing a load of Remainer nonsense about Brexit can lead the Conservatives out of the wilderness!
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into a death cult.
How uncharacteristically hysterical!
17.4 million people voted for Brexit. Many of them would vote Tory if there were economic disruptions, provided that Brexit has been delivered. Few will vote Tory if we don’t.
The only thing that will utterly destroy the party is cancelling Brexit. If it doesn’t happen and someone else can be blamed, we will survive, but be out of power for a generation.
The 17.4 million were given the opportunity to vote Tory in 2017 and they decided they did not want to do that...
That isn't the full picture.
The Tories got 13.6 million which is a hefty chunk of the 17.4 million. Though not all Brexit voters were in Great Britain. The DUP got a further 0.3 million so 13.9 million.
However the Tories and DUP weren't the only pro-Brexit parties in 2017. Pro-Brexit parties won over 27.4 million votes in 2017.
The clever, ruthless way Boris and his team have commanded and manipulated this entire election, gives me very very very faint hope he might not be a total disaster as PM.
Faint. I did say faint. Faint hope.
The reason it is faint is that this part is within his control and he has probably spent most of his time in the last few years working toward it. But he cannot control parliament so easily, or the EU.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement remember, he wants to deliver Brexit and a Deal but needs to be elected leader first and has now eliminated his most dangerous opponent, Raab and the candidate with the most momentum, Stewart
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Yes - that leaves six weeks. So when have you got the Northern Ireland referendum crayoned in for?
Could be done in a month.
General election by early September, Boris Tory majority.
Backstop referendum by early October in NI, backstop majority.
Withdrawal Agreement minus temporary Customs Union for GB but with NI backstop until a technical solution is found to the Irish border passes by October 31st with the new Tory majority in the Commons.
Negotiations begin on a FTA for GB with the EU from November
"Just rejoice at that news...."
(as we seem to be channelling Fatcha tonight)
Indeed, ignore the Remainer desperation to stop Brexit
I’ll vote for whoever promises to sack Chris Grayling.
I'd be careful. Three months of BoJo or Gove and we'll be asking for Chris Grayling back on the grounds he's more competent.
Gove would certainly be competent, but he’d also be hated.
I think Gove would help the Tories do better in Scotland than Boris would do in any snap election.
The SNP going on todays PMQs are keen for Boris being PM that is for sure. I can see the Tories getting no seats in Scotland at an election with Boris at the helm of the Tories. Whether this will be off-set by gains in England off Labour remains to be seen but I very much doubt it. In my view the loss of seats to LD and the viability of gaining safe seats off Labour seems to make an election unlikely in the short-term.
Rory Stewart is not a Lib Dem, he is an old-fashioned patrician Tory in the mould of Heath.
The same Heath who lost 3 out of 4 general elections?
Yes, probably that same Heath. At least for now.
Stewart may very well be the best politician of our age, but he's still got the stabilizers on. I want to see what he can do with those off, but he has to remember what they felt like.
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Yes - that leaves six weeks. So when have you got the Northern Ireland referendum crayoned in for?
Could be done in a month.
General election by early September, Boris Tory majority.
Backstop referendum by early October in NI, backstop majority.
Withdrawal Agreement minus temporary Customs Union for GB but with NI backstop until a technical solution is found to the Irish border passes by October 31st with the new Tory majority in the Commons.
Negotiations begin on a FTA for GB with the EU from November
Now I specifically told you not to forget the legislation that would have to be passed after the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed by the Commons and before we could leave the EU. And there you are. You've gone and forgotten it anyway!
The other thing you've forgotten, of course, is that you'd not only need legislation to allow for the referendum, but you'd also need to amend the existing legislation that governs referenda if you wanted to hold one so quickly.
Your grasp of the relevant facts seems to be about as tenuous as Boris Johnson's.
Actually, _are_ you Boris Johnson?
Once Boris has a Tory majority all necessary legislation can be passed as quickly as needed
And what happens if we have another hung parliament?
At the moment Farage likely PM which really would be No Deal
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into an unelectable death cult if it's not one already.
Rory is anti tax cuts and anti hard Brexit, his agenda was more LD than Tory.
He may as well join Umunna in the LDs if he really wants to be PM, there is little room for a pro EU, anti tax cut 2nd Tory Party
You really have a thing for chasing others away from their party don't you?
This - anyone who thinks they as PM can fix this Brexit mess is nothing more than utterly delusional.
Not really. @another_richard spent some time on previous threads outlining the method and everybody's resiling from it because they don't like the implications. It goes like this
* Boris deliberately decieves the selectorate by making false promises * He wins and becomes PM * He goes to Brussels, fails and blames * Tory voters blame the EU * He leaves on October 31st as promised * He calls an election. Enough Tory and Lab Leavers vote with him to bypass the FTPA * The departure neutralises BXP and Lab and Lib split the Remainers. * As per the polls, Boris wins a convincing majority * Post-leave some people are distressed. The Tory distressed are bought off with bribes. The Lab and Lib distressed are left to die and mocked in their dying. * The pound collapses further. * The further devaluation helps with the BoP, but price inelasticity means some goods/services remain in demand * The ones Tories like are left alone, the ones Lab and Lib like are made socially undesirable thru nudges and, eventually, simple abuse. * The talented migrate from the UK, the average remain, the poor suffer what they must. * Public morale is maintained thru stimulated hatreds and simple lies about the outside world. * To maintain these fictions, Internet controls are imposed similar to China's. * The wealthy maintain their grip on society and travel widely, with non-gbp earnings making a deterioration in the UK actively desirable. The political parties compete with themselves and care little about the electorate. The public know less, can do less, and travel less than their parents. Since their needs are provided for thru technological advances, they are little troubled by this... * ...but it is not a place for dreamers.
He wouldn't get to October 31st in that case. As soon as he leaves Brussels and announces we leave with No Deal he's VoNCed...
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Yes - that leaves six weeks. So when have you got the Northern Ireland referendum crayoned in for?
Could be done in a month.
General election by early September, Boris Tory majority.
Backstop referendum by early October in NI, backstop majority.
Withdrawal Agreement minus temporary Customs Union for GB but with NI backstop until a technical solution is found to the Irish border passes by October 31st with the new Tory majority in the Commons.
Negotiations begin on a FTA for GB with the EU from November
Now I specifically told you not to forget the legislation that would have to be passed after the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed by the Commons and before we could leave the EU. And there you are. You've gone and forgotten it anyway!
The other thing you've forgotten, of course, is that you'd not only need legislation to allow for the referendum, but you'd also need to amend the existing legislation that governs referenda if you wanted to hold one so quickly.
Your grasp of the relevant facts seems to be about as tenuous as Boris Johnson's.
Actually, _are_ you Boris Johnson?
Once Boris has a Tory majority all necessary legislation can be passed as quickly as needed
How does Boris get a majority before 31/10 even if Labour successfully no-confidences him on day one?
And how large must this majority be to outvote dozens of Brexit headbangers in his own party?
Whilst many of you enjoy jousting with Mr Thompson and Mr Ufd and one or two others I think maybe it would be better to let them believe that they are following the one true path.
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Yes - that leaves six weeks. So when have you got the Northern Ireland referendum crayoned in for?
Could be done in a month.
General election by early September, Boris Tory majority.
Backstop referendum by early October in NI, backstop majority.
Withdrawal Agreement minus temporary Customs Union for GB but with NI backstop until a technical solution is found to the Irish border passes by October 31st with the new Tory majority in the Commons.
Negotiations begin on a FTA for GB with the EU from November
Now I specifically told you not to forget the legislation that would have to be passed after the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed by the Commons and before we could leave the EU. And there you are. You've gone and forgotten it anyway!
The other thing you've forgotten, of course, is that you'd not only need legislation to allow for the referendum, but you'd also need to amend the existing legislation that governs referenda if you wanted to hold one so quickly.
Your grasp of the relevant facts seems to be about as tenuous as Boris Johnson's.
Actually, _are_ you Boris Johnson?
Once Boris has a Tory majority all necessary legislation can be passed as quickly as needed
And what happens if we have another hung parliament?
At the moment Farage likely PM which really would be No Deal
Really? How? That would require Brexit and Tories to get 51% of the seats...
I’ll vote for whoever promises to sack Chris Grayling.
I'd be careful. Three months of BoJo or Gove and we'll be asking for Chris Grayling back on the grounds he's more competent.
Gove would certainly be competent, but he’d also be hated.
I think Gove would help the Tories do better in Scotland than Boris would do in any snap election.
The SNP going on todays PMQs are keen for Boris being PM that is for sure. I can see the Tories getting no seats in Scotland at an election with Boris at the helm of the Tories. Whether this will be off-set by gains in England off Labour remains to be seen but I very much doubt it. In my view the loss of seats to LD and the viability of gaining safe seats off Labour seems to make an election unlikely in the short-term.
But, Scotland might paddle its own canoe under Ruth in opposition to Sturgeon’s manoeuvring for a second referendum.
For as long as that’s in play I think a fair few Tory seats there will be sticky.
My predictions have been okay so far. I've got every elimination right apart from Javid in the second round. Could have been better but not disastrous.
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Yes - that leaves six weeks. So when have you got the Northern Ireland referendum crayoned in for?
Could be done in a month.
General election by early September, Boris Tory majority.
Backstop referendum by early October in NI, backstop majority.
Withdrawal Agreement minus temporary Customs Union for GB but with NI backstop until a technical solution is found to the Irish border passes by October 31st with the new Tory majority in the Commons.
Negotiations begin on a FTA for GB with the EU from November
I think you could do a GE in that period, but isn't the timing tight for a Referendum? Funds have to be voted for, the Electoral Commission has to clear the question, campaigns have to be formed, nominated and chosen, then there has to be an actual campaign. There were four months and three days between Cameron s announcement and 2016ref. To do the same by Oct 31 you'd need to announce it sometime in the next week and you'll be fighting a GE campaign at the same time. So a two-front war and BXP still extant. That's...brave?
Parliament is sovereign and can do what it likes, including dictating to the Electoral Commission.
Win a majority and Boris can largely do what he wants and dictate any referendum timetable.
He could even pass the Withdrawal Agreement first with a majority and just hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop and the EU would have no problem with that provided the Withdrawal Agreement passed
The clever, ruthless way Boris and his team have commanded and manipulated this entire election, gives me very very very faint hope he might not be a total disaster as PM.
Faint. I did say faint. Faint hope.
The reason it is faint is that this part is within his control and he has probably spent most of his time in the last few years working toward it. But he cannot control parliament so easily, or the EU.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement remember, he wants to deliver Brexit and a Deal but needs to be elected leader first and has now eliminated his most dangerous opponent, Raab and the candidate with the most momentum, Stewart
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Yes - that leaves six weeks. So when have you got the Northern Ireland referendum crayoned in for?
Could be done in a month.
General election by early September, Boris Tory majority.
Backstop referendum by early October in NI, backstop majority.
Withdrawal Agreement minus temporary Customs Union for GB but with NI backstop until a technical solution is found to the Irish border passes by October 31st with the new Tory majority in the Commons.
Negotiations begin on a FTA for GB with the EU from November
Your timings don't work. Please put in dates for the following key events that must by law all occur.
Date of General Election Date of Queen's Speech after General Election Date of Third Reading of NI Referendum Act Date of NI Referendum Date of Third Reading of Withdrawal Act.
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into a death cult.
How uncharacteristically hysterical!
17.4 million people voted for Brexit. Many of them would vote Tory if there were economic disruptions, provided that Brexit has been delivered. Few will vote Tory if we don’t.
The only thing that will utterly destroy the party is cancelling Brexit. If it doesn’t happen and someone else can be blamed, we will survive, but be out of power for a generation.
The 17.4 million were given the opportunity to vote Tory in 2017 and they decided they did not want to do that...
That isn't the full picture.
The Tories got 13.6 million which is a hefty chunk of the 17.4 million. Though not all Brexit voters were in Great Britain. The DUP got a further 0.3 million so 13.9 million.
However the Tories and DUP weren't the only pro-Brexit parties in 2017. Pro-Brexit parties won over 27.4 million votes in 2017.
I voted Tory in 2017 and I do not support Brexit. I know others who similarly did not vote for Brexit but voted Tory in 2017.
Please spare me the nonsense that both Tory and Labour voters in 2017 add up to 27.4 million who support Brexit. Some might but many do not.
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into an unelectable death cult if it's not one already.
Rory is anti tax cuts and anti hard Brexit, his agenda was more LD than Tory.
He may as well join Umunna in the LDs if he really wants to be PM, there is little room for a pro EU, anti tax cut 2nd Tory Party
He's anti stupid and irresponsible tax cuts, which is bang slap in the middle of Conservativism. And he's anti a chaotic ideologically-driven crash-out which would destroy jobs and disrupt citizens' lives, which is pure Conservativism.
You and Rory are really Peelite Liberals not Tories
So you are against Catholic Emancipation then? And in favour of starving the Irish? Against free trade? And in favour of subsidies to powerful interest groups?
At last, a good decision from the COnservatives. I am sorry Mr Smithson, but you misread the prospects of the Tories if you believe that a Garden Gnome with six weeks of ministerial experience, packing a load of Remainer nonsense about Brexit can lead the Conservatives out of the wilderness!
The Tories are not in the wilderness! They are the Governing party FFS!
It's possible nearly all of Stewart's supporters could transfer to Javid in a dogged attempt to counter the alleged tactical voting that's been going on so far. Only problem is we don't know how much of Javid's support is genuine.
I’d guess something like 26 or 27 genuine votes for the Saj and maybe about 24 for Stewart.
They’d need to all unite around the Saj to have a chance of overtaking Gove, as the balance (11 or so) will probably now go back to Hunt.
The clever, ruthless way Boris and his team have commanded and manipulated this entire election, gives me very very very faint hope he might not be a total disaster as PM.
Faint. I did say faint. Faint hope.
The reason it is faint is that this part is within his control and he has probably spent most of his time in the last few years working toward it. But he cannot control parliament so easily, or the EU.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement remember, he wants to deliver Brexit and a Deal but needs to be elected leader first and has now eliminated his most dangerous opponent, Raab and the candidate with the most momentum, Stewart
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic sts.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Yes - that leaves six weeks. So when have you got the Northern Ireland referendum crayoned in for?
Could be done in a month.
General election by early September, Boris Tory majority.
Backstop referendum by early October in NI, backstop majority.
Withdrawal Agreement minus temporary Customs Union for GB but with NI backstop until a technical solution is found to the Irish border passes by October 31st with the new Tory majority in the Commons.
Negotiations begin on a FTA for GB with the EU from November
Your timings don't work. Please put in dates for the following key events that must by law all occur.
Date of General Election Date of Queen's Speech after General Election Date of Third Reading of NI Referendum Act Date of NI Referendum Date of Third Reading of Withdrawal Act.
Provided Boris wins a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed quickly.
We have then left the EU by the end of October, the NI referendum just confirmatory.
In the unlikely event NI votes for a hard border it is Barnier and Varadkar with the problem, not Boris
I am not surprised that Stewart is out. I congratulate him on presenting something other than the Brexit Death Cult, but the zeitgeist in the Tory Party was against him. I do also think he was naive in his approach to the debate last night: he did come across at times as the awkward b*gger in the corner rather than reaching out to the membership and the parliamentary party who, after all, are the electorate for this particular contest.
I don't think it's the last we've heard of him and you never know, he might still lead the Tories in the future, but now was not his time.
That has more than the whiff of spin and bullshit about it. Not buying it. She had no time for flamboyant flip floppers like Boris.
Alan Clarke, Jeffrey Archer, John Moore, Cecil Parkinson, Thatcher loved charismatic opportunists
Good point, well made. She did like pretty ones and cads, but she never gave them real power. A little colour and decoration around the place. She would have not had serious time for Boris.
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into an unelectable death cult if it's not one already.
Rory is anti tax cuts and anti hard Brexit, his agenda was more LD than Tory.
He may as well join Umunna in the LDs if he really wants to be PM, there is little room for a pro EU, anti tax cut 2nd Tory Party
He's anti stupid and irresponsible tax cuts, which is bang slap in the middle of Conservativism. And he's anti a chaotic ideologically-driven crash-out which would destroy jobs and disrupt citizens' lives, which is pure Conservativism.
You and Rory are really Peelite Liberals not Tories
So you are against Catholic Emancipation then? And in favour of starving the Irish? Against free trade? And in favour of subsidies to powerful interest groups?
Apart from the first you could probably find MPs who support all of those.
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Yes - that leaves six weeks. So when have you got the Northern Ireland referendum crayoned in for?
Could be done in a month.
General election by early September, Boris Tory majority.
Backstop referendum by early October in NI, backstop majority.
Withdrawal Agreement minus temporary Customs Union for GB but with NI backstop until a technical solution is found to the Irish border passes by October 31st with the new Tory majority in the Commons.
Negotiations begin on a FTA for GB with the EU from November
Now I specifically told you not to forget the legislation that would have to be passed after the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed by the Commons and before we could leave the EU. And there you are. You've gone and forgotten it anyway!
The other thing you've forgotten, of course, is that you'd not only need legislation to allow for the referendum, but you'd also need to amend the existing legislation that governs referenda if you wanted to hold one so quickly.
Your grasp of the relevant facts seems to be about as tenuous as Boris Johnson's.
Actually, _are_ you Boris Johnson?
Once Boris has a Tory majority all necessary legislation can be passed as quickly as needed
And what happens if we have another hung parliament?
At the moment Farage likely PM which really would be No Deal
Really? How? That would require Brexit and Tories to get 51% of the seats...
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into an unelectable death cult if it's not one already.
Rory is anti tax cuts and anti hard Brexit, his agenda was more LD than Tory.
He may as well join Umunna in the LDs if he really wants to be PM, there is little room for a pro EU, anti tax cut 2nd Tory Party
It's an amusing thought that Margaret Thatcher's pro-European views would disqualify her as a Tory by present standards.
Thatcher also cut taxes and would have backed Leave in the referendum (she endorsed IDS and almost certainly Redwood after all)
When you say Thatcher cut taxes, you forget the first thing she did was increase taxes.
The top income tax rate fell from around 90% to just 40% during the Thatcher years
The top rate didn't come down to 40% until 1988, 9 years after she took office.
When Thatcher was still PM, thanks for confirming
Thatcher doubled VAT (despite having denied it -- maybe that is where Boris got the bus idea). Her magic money tree was North Sea Oil taxes. Thatcher was brought down by another new tax she'd invented.
He wants a deal but how does he get one unless the EU are the greatest bluffers of all time? He would bring forth the WA with mere cosmetic changes to the PD again, with BXP breathing down his neck? Please.
Wanting a deal has never been a problem with the Brexit process. Getting one through parliament is. Boris eventually backed the WA, but everyone now in the race says they can get a better one. If he, or they, cannot, they seem keener on no deal than returning to the deal that already exists.
Win a snap general election after the EU refuse to renegotiate (which Boris will only try for show anyway), hold a referendum in NI on the backstop, then use his majority to ignore the DUP and deliver the WA and a FTA for GB.
Perhaps you could give us a rough sketch of how you see those events fitting in between 22 July and 31 October?
Boris wins a majority in a general election by mid September and it all follows from there
Yes - that leaves six weeks. So when have you got the Northern Ireland referendum crayoned in for?
Could be done in a month.
General election by early September, Boris Tory majority.
Backstop referendum by early October in NI, backstop majority.
Withdrawal Agreement minus temporary Customs Union for GB but with NI backstop until a technical solution is found to the Irish border passes by October 31st with the new Tory majority in the Commons.
Negotiations begin on a FTA for GB with the EU from November
Now I specifically told you not to forget the legislation that would have to be passed after the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed by the Commons and before we could leave the EU. And there you are. You've gone and forgotten it anyway!
The other thing you've forgotten, of course, is that you'd not only need legislation to allow for the referendum, but you'd also need to amend the existing legislation that governs referenda if you wanted to hold one so quickly.
Your grasp of the relevant facts seems to be about as tenuous as Boris Johnson's.
Actually, _are_ you Boris Johnson?
Once Boris has a Tory majority all necessary legislation can be passed as quickly as needed
How does Boris get a majority before 31/10 even if Labour successfully no-confidences him on day one?
And how large must this majority be to outvote dozens of Brexit headbangers in his own party?
Provided Boris commits to a FTA for GB the ERG will be on board with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed, only the DUP care about the backstop
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into a death cult.
How uncharacteristically hysterical!
17.4 million people voted for Brexit. Many of them would vote Tory if there were economic disruptions, provided that Brexit has been delivered. Few will vote Tory if we don’t.
The only thing that will utterly destroy the party is cancelling Brexit. If it doesn’t happen and someone else can be blamed, we will survive, but be out of power for a generation.
The 17.4 million were given the opportunity to vote Tory in 2017 and they decided they did not want to do that...
That isn't the full picture.
The Tories got 13.6 million which is a hefty chunk of the 17.4 million. Though not all Brexit voters were in Great Britain. The DUP got a further 0.3 million so 13.9 million.
However the Tories and DUP weren't the only pro-Brexit parties in 2017. Pro-Brexit parties won over 27.4 million votes in 2017.
That has more than the whiff of spin and bullshit about it. Not buying it. She had no time for flamboyant flip floppers like Boris.
Alan Clarke, Jeffrey Archer, John Moore, Cecil Parkinson, Thatcher loved charismatic opportunists
Good point, well made. She did like pretty ones and cads, but she never gave them real power. A little colour and decoration around the place. She would have not had serious time for Boris.
What about the vegetables ma’am? Oh don’t worry they’ll have what I’m having.
Thatcher would have no time for Boris. Wouldn’t have made it to cabinet.
It's nice that you guys have all come round to accepting Thatcher's Unquestionable Greatness.
The liberal left hated Thatcher just as they hate Boris, did not stop Thatcher winning 3 general elections and will not stop Boris winning the next general election either
There are two constants with the liberal left in every age:-
(a) the Conservative party as it presently is is the most extreme it's ever been;
(b) it will invariably be contrasted with a far more liberal Conservative party in the past (in this case, the party of Margaret Thatcher) despite the fact that a previous generation of liberal left wingers reviled that party as being extreme.
Provided Boris commits to a FTA for GB the ERG will be on board with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed, only the DUP care about the backstop
Still not enough to pass the HoC.
Rubbish, it would last easily.
With the ERG on board and a Tory majority even DUP and the handful of Tory Remainers could not stop it and it would again get 1 or 2 Labour Leave MPs too like Mann and Stringer as the WA did before
Thatcher would have no time for Boris. Wouldn’t have made it to cabinet.
It's nice that you guys have all come round to accepting Thatcher's Unquestionable Greatness.
The liberal left hated Thatcher just as they hate Boris, did not stop Thatcher winning 3 general elections and will not stop Boris winning the next general election either
There are two constants with the liberal left in every age:-
(a) the Conservative party as it presently is is the most extreme it's ever been;
(b) it will invariably be contrasted with a far more liberal Conservative party in the past (in this case, the party of Margaret Thatcher) despite the fact that a previous generation of liberal left wingers reviled that party as being extreme.
The party of Thatcher was far more extreme. It was more competent. This lot does harm primarily because they are rubbish.
That has more than the whiff of spin and bullshit about it. Not buying it. She had no time for flamboyant flip floppers like Boris.
Alan Clarke, Jeffrey Archer, John Moore, Cecil Parkinson, Thatcher loved charismatic opportunists
Good point, well made. She did like pretty ones and cads, but she never gave them real power. A little colour and decoration around the place. She would have not had serious time for Boris.
She loved Ronald Reagan too who was even more powerful than her.
Provided Boris commits to a FTA for GB the ERG will be on board with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed, only the DUP care about the backstop
Still not enough to pass the HoC.
Rubbish, it would last easily.
With the ERG on board and a Tory majority even DUP and the handful of Tory Remainers could not stop it and it would again get 1 or 2 Labour Leave MPs too like Mann and Stringer as the WA did before
Rory has more chance of being the next Liberal PM than a Tory one
Or of leading a new centre-right One Nation Party if Boris is stupid enough to crash us out in chaos and thereby convert the Conservative Party into an unelectable death cult if it's not one already.
Rory is anti tax cuts and anti hard Brexit, his agenda was more LD than Tory.
He may as well join Umunna in the LDs if he really wants to be PM, there is little room for a pro EU, anti tax cut 2nd Tory Party
He's anti stupid and irresponsible tax cuts, which is bang slap in the middle of Conservativism. And he's anti a chaotic ideologically-driven crash-out which would destroy jobs and disrupt citizens' lives, which is pure Conservativism.
You and Rory are really Peelite Liberals not Tories
So you are against Catholic Emancipation then? And in favour of starving the Irish? Against free trade? And in favour of subsidies to powerful interest groups?
Well a majority of Tory MPs at the time did vote for the Corn Laws and tariffs which was why the Peelites left to form the Liberals with the Whigs
Comments
And you need 5 weeks for an election campaign - to be blunt unless Boris keeps Parliament around and calls it by July 31st he can't do it...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3441473/Why-lady-turning-grave-Revealed-23-years-letter-proves-ex-aide-wrong-say-d-Dave-Europe.html
* Boris deliberately decieves the selectorate by making false promises
* He wins and becomes PM
* He goes to Brussels, fails and blames
* Tory voters blame the EU
* He leaves on October 31st as promised
* He calls an election. Enough Tory and Lab Leavers vote with him to bypass the FTPA
* The departure neutralises BXP and Lab and Lib split the Remainers.
* As per the polls, Boris wins a convincing majority
* Post-leave some people are distressed. The Tory distressed are bought off with bribes. The Lab and Lib distressed are left to die and mocked in their dying.
* The pound collapses further.
* The further devaluation helps with the BoP, but price inelasticity means some goods/services remain in demand
* The ones Tories like are left alone, the ones Lab and Lib like are made socially undesirable thru nudges and, eventually, simple abuse.
* The talented migrate from the UK, the average remain, the poor suffer what they must.
* Public morale is maintained thru stimulated hatreds and simple lies about the outside world.
* To maintain these fictions, Internet controls are imposed similar to China's.
* The wealthy maintain their grip on society and travel widely, with non-gbp earnings making a deterioration in the UK actively desirable. The political parties compete with themselves and care little about the electorate. The public know less, can do less, and travel less than their parents. Since their needs are provided for thru technological advances, they are little troubled by this...
* ...but it is not a place for dreamers.
General election by early September, Boris Tory majority.
Backstop referendum by early October in NI, backstop majority.
Withdrawal Agreement minus temporary Customs Union for GB but with NI backstop until a technical solution is found to the Irish border passes by October 31st with the new Tory majority in the Commons.
Negotiations begin on a FTA for GB with the EU from November
Why not already tried? Inflexibility from Theresa May? Imaginary red lines around FOM? It doesn't really matter now.
But, that ship has clearly sailed and no jumping in the water and swimming after it is going to bring it back.
(£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/rory-stewart-accuses-rival-of-dark-arts-as-he-is-knocked-out-of-tory-leadership-race-gt0fxzjk5
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1137516/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-election-brexit-news-eu-margaret-thatcher-spt
Picture of Thatcher with Boris here
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/boris-johnson-teachers-demonised-margaret-thatcher-8567367.html
The other thing you've forgotten, of course, is that you'd not only need legislation to allow for the referendum, but you'd also need to amend the existing legislation that governs referenda if you wanted to hold one so quickly.
Your grasp of the relevant facts seems to be about as tenuous as Boris Johnson's.
Actually, _are_ you Boris Johnson?
Some of the supply side changes in the 1980s were a good idea, some of them were not really affordable in the long run or socially desirable for a population at peace with itself.
The Thatcher government did make some costly mistakes such as the poll tax but I would have voted for them had I been on the electoral roll at the time because Thatcher for her mistakes was still better than Foot or Kinnock!
(as we seem to be channelling Fatcha tonight)
Plus even Heath won in 1970 on the Seldon manifesto which was pretty right wing and with Powell's support for the Tories, Powell did not support him in 1974 and he lost
The Tories got 13.6 million which is a hefty chunk of the 17.4 million. Though not all Brexit voters were in Great Britain. The DUP got a further 0.3 million so 13.9 million.
However the Tories and DUP weren't the only pro-Brexit parties in 2017. Pro-Brexit parties won over 27.4 million votes in 2017.
The SNP going on todays PMQs are keen for Boris being PM that is for sure. I can see the Tories getting no seats in Scotland at an election with Boris at the helm of the Tories. Whether this will be off-set by gains in England off Labour remains to be seen but I very much doubt it. In my view the loss of seats to LD and the viability of gaining safe seats off Labour seems to make an election unlikely in the short-term.
Stewart may very well be the best politician of our age, but he's still got the stabilizers on. I want to see what he can do with those off, but he has to remember what they felt like.
If you cut Rory he would bleed Tory.
And how large must this majority be to outvote dozens of Brexit headbangers in his own party?
For as long as that’s in play I think a fair few Tory seats there will be sticky.
Win a majority and Boris can largely do what he wants and dictate any referendum timetable.
He could even pass the Withdrawal Agreement first with a majority and just hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop and the EU would have no problem with that provided the Withdrawal Agreement passed
Date of General Election
Date of Queen's Speech after General Election
Date of Third Reading of NI Referendum Act
Date of NI Referendum
Date of Third Reading of Withdrawal Act.
Please spare me the nonsense that both Tory and Labour voters in 2017 add up to 27.4 million who support Brexit. Some might but many do not.
They’d need to all unite around the Saj to have a chance of overtaking Gove, as the balance (11 or so) will probably now go back to Hunt.
He’s a longshot but not 100/1.
We have then left the EU by the end of October, the NI referendum just confirmatory.
In the unlikely event NI votes for a hard border it is Barnier and Varadkar with the problem, not Boris
I don't think it's the last we've heard of him and you never know, he might still lead the Tories in the future, but now was not his time.
In NI probably the first too.
(a) the Conservative party as it presently is is the most extreme it's ever been;
(b) it will invariably be contrasted with a far more liberal Conservative party in the past (in this case, the party of Margaret Thatcher) despite the fact that a previous generation of liberal left wingers reviled that party as being extreme.
With the ERG on board and a Tory majority even DUP and the handful of Tory Remainers could not stop it and it would again get 1 or 2 Labour Leave MPs too like Mann and Stringer as the WA did before
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