politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The revolution will not be televised

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Boris and elections an renegotiations.

Cast your mind back - PBers - to about November of last year. The WA has been published, and there is uproar; in particular about the backstop.

Boris Johnson, in the Telegraph, announces that he should become Prime Minister, and the first thing he would do is ask for a six month extension to renegotiate the deal.

Now, it seems, Boris Johnson is offering a renegotiation, but is not requiring the six months of extension. Indeed, an election practically precludes any renegotiation, because the absolute earliest (assuming no coronation) would be September 12 - a scant six and a half weeks before departure. (Frankly, passing the WA after that election date would be a challenge.)

So: is Boris actually promising what he argued for in November, a majority to allow him to force the EU back to the negotiating table. (Albeit with an extension.)

Or is Boris going to the country to ask for explicit No Deal?

Or is there some other option I'm missing?

More recently in January, Boris said this:

"We don't [want] and we will not see a hard border. That would not be right.

"There are other solutions ... and we should use that [transition] period, which was called the implementation period, a period of standstill, after we come out to negotiate not just the Canada-style trade deal but also to bring in those technical solutions."

Mr Johnson said that while he would like to see an extension of the existing arrangements after 29 March on a bilateral basis between the UK and EU, he would not be in favour of an extension of Article 50.

"We would still come out but what you agree is that, subject to approval by the WTO, what you would try to do is protract the existing arrangements.

"So you have a zero tariff, zero quota arrangement for as long as it takes to get a free trade deal done."

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0110/1022479-boris-johnson-brexit/

Boris seems to think that he can have technical controls on the Border in time for the Day of the Dead, yet not possible during the 18 months left of the WA. Shome mistake shurely?

Are you really searching for consistency in the pronouncements of the blustering bufflehead ?
History would suggest such an effort is futile.

Well quite. I doubt that Johnson has ever taken time to formulate an opinion or policy in much longer that the time to write a newspaper column. Or sometimes two newspaper columns.

justin124 said:

Andrew said:

rcs1000 said:

Or is Boris going to the country to ask for explicit No Deal?

Seems like it. Pull back all those BXP voters, with Labour's vote so split.

Of course, he'll then get into government, look over the precipice, and we'll be back to begging for extensions again - or if he has a decent majority, May's deal mildly tweaked will get rammed through.

I doubt that the LibDems would poll more than 12% at a GE - with the Greens unlikely to exceed 2%. Any sign of a Boris surge will see such voters switching back to Labour.

Tories jumping in their droves for the Brexit party. and Labour voters decamping en-masse for the might LDs are somewhat different things. Both are mostly about Brexit, but there are elements which are very different, and completely hidden by the scale of the Brexit effect.

The Tories, I think, can have reasonable comfort in that if they elect a leader that manages to do the impossible of squaring the circle then they'll be fine. A plan, and if it works then good.

Labour are just in a weird place. It's like Momentum has failed to take its Viagra, but found that no-one noticed anyway.

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

Andrew said:

rcs1000 said:

Or is Boris going to the country to ask for explicit No Deal?

Seems like it. Pull back all those BXP voters, with Labour's vote so split.

Of course, he'll then get into government, look over the precipice, and we'll be back to begging for extensions again - or if he has a decent majority, May's deal mildly tweaked will get rammed through.

I doubt that the LibDems would poll more than 12% at a GE - with the Greens unlikely to exceed 2%. Any sign of a Boris surge will see such voters switching back to Labour.

Without a Corbyn commitment to EUref2 I doubt it

Defeating Boris would be likely to override that.

I think there's two things that need to be considered:

1. Who is the diametric opposite to No Deal Boris - is the LibDems or is Labour?
2. How much - if any - tactical voting will there be? Will Labour-ites in the South East hold their noses and forget the coalition years to vote in a LibDem MP?

Freggles said:

tlg86 said:

Thanks Alastair. This is interesting in that it's one benefit that is going to be denied to the much maligned baby boomer generation. You know, the one we're told repeatedly has had it all.

My dad (aged 73 in August) rightly points out that this is far worse for anyone who's been in receipt of the benefit than those like him (well, me actually as I pay it) who won't ever get it.

When are Millennials getting a free TV licence or university degrees?

Are you suggesting that they need free degrees? Free TV?

Not sure how they've earned anything just yet.

Afternoon all

I confess I'm confused. The EU have said the WA won't be renegotiated and this has been confirmed by Leo Varadkar and others.

Yet the Conservative leadership candidates (well, some of them) seem convinced there is a re-negotiation to be had - someone is right and someone is wrong.

If the WA can't or isn't amended, is it any more likely to get through the Commons with Johnson as PM than it did with May as PM? I suppose it's conceivable more Conservatives will support it but if there is still no majority, what then?

Some seem to think, based on a couple of polls, that PM Johnson will call a snap GE, win a majority and then be able to do what he likes (agree the WA or leave without a WA) with the gratitude of his new legion of MPs and the country. Maybe, but wasn't that May's strategy and that ended well, didn't it?

In any case, Farage and TBP, who are leading most polls in case we've forgotten, aren't going to sit idly by and watch Johnson take their supporters. A GE would be Farage's opportunity to win his majority as well.

So will there be an election? Johnson won't go to the country unless he thinks he will win so if the polls don't move decisively, 31/10 heaves into view. Perhaps the EU will be tired of our lack of progress and basically throw us out without a WA and the UK Government will doubtless blame the Europeans for anything and everything that happens or doesn't happen.

What if another extension (perhaps to 2022) is offered? I doubt the Conservatives would be enamoured of three more years swinging on the Brexit fish hook so Johnson basically rejects all that and we leave without a WA but having to own the consequences.

Johnson has the advantage that Corbyn wants a GE (or appears to). A shrewder LOTO would leave the Conservative PM on the hook until October - Labour are a long way from a majority and for all the insinuations of some of the Conservatives on here, there's no guarantee the LDs or SNP would prop up a Corbyn minority though I imagine the Conservatives would be happy to support a minority TBP Government.

None of this matters because I keep coming back to the conundrum - if the WA isn't going to be negotiated according to the EU and assuming changing the PM doesn't make enough difference to the parliamentary arithmetic to get the WA through the Commons, what can or will change before October? We are back to either leaving without an agreed WA on 31/10, revoking A50 or seeking yet another extension. None of the Conservative leadership candidates seem able to resolve this credibly as far as I can see.

@stodge surely both Farage and Johnson know that the greatest chance of Brexit happening is by avoiding a split pro Brexit vote?

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

Andrew said:

rcs1000 said:

Or is Boris going to the country to ask for explicit No Deal?

Seems like it. Pull back all those BXP voters, with Labour's vote so split.

Of course, he'll then get into government, look over the precipice, and we'll be back to begging for extensions again - or if he has a decent majority, May's deal mildly tweaked will get rammed through.

I doubt that the LibDems would poll more than 12% at a GE - with the Greens unlikely to exceed 2%. Any sign of a Boris surge will see such voters switching back to Labour.

Without a Corbyn commitment to EUref2 I doubt it

Defeating Boris would be likely to override that.

Many diehard Remainers now hold Corbyn in complete contempt and only held their noses to vote for him in 2017 as they thought he would try and stop Brexit or at least keep the UK in the single market. He has not and likely will not (as he wants to keep Labour Leave voters on board) so they will stick with the yellows, for them Corbyn and Boris are now as bad as each other

stodge said:

Afternoon all

I confess I'm confused. The EU have said the WA won't be renegotiated and this has been confirmed by Leo Varadkar and others.

Yet the Conservative leadership candidates (well, some of them) seem convinced there is a re-negotiation to be had - someone is right and someone is wrong.

If the WA can't or isn't amended, is it any more likely to get through the Commons with Johnson as PM than it did with May as PM? I suppose it's conceivable more Conservatives will support it but if there is still no majority, what then?

Some seem to think, based on a couple of polls, that PM Johnson will call a snap GE, win a majority and then be able to do what he likes (agree the WA or leave without a WA) with the gratitude of his new legion of MPs and the country. Maybe, but wasn't that May's strategy and that ended well, didn't it?

In any case, Farage and TBP, who are leading most polls in case we've forgotten, aren't going to sit idly by and watch Johnson take their supporters. A GE would be Farage's opportunity to win his majority as well.

So will there be an election? Johnson won't go to the country unless he thinks he will win so if the polls don't move decisively, 31/10 heaves into view. Perhaps the EU will be tired of our lack of progress and basically throw us out without a WA and the UK Government will doubtless blame the Europeans for anything and everything that happens or doesn't happen.

The EU is not immune from posturing, but it would be an almighty climbdown to renegotiate now, so it seems less likely than the alternative hypothesis, that the leadership candidates are talking nonsense because they are not yet ready to admit no deal is to be the only opion if they won't pass the WA.

I think you're wrong about the going to the country - Johnson and co may not want to do it unless they think they can win, but several of them believe they will be annihilated if we don't leave by the end of October, so they simply cannot fathom extending. Therefore, a GE that is high risk now is preferable to extending and facing one soon anyway. They key would be whether BXP voters can be persuaded it is not the Tories' fault we do not leave in October, that PM BoJo would have achieved it if not for Labour and some traitors on his own side. No, it won't fool Farage nor lure back everyone else, but it might be enought to save quite a lot of Tory seats.

AlastairMeeks said:

Facebook, incidentally, is a very good place of getting news if you want to find out what gets the attention of people enough to talk proactively about it to their family and friends. It often informs what I choose to write about, as with today’s piece.

You mean you lie in bed reading facebook, and not listening to radio 4? Shame on you, sir.

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Facebook, incidentally, is a very good place of getting news if you want to find out what gets the attention of people enough to talk proactively about it to their family and friends. It often informs what I choose to write about, as with today’s piece.

You mean you lie in bed reading facebook, and not listening to radio 4? Shame on you, sir.

I’m afraid I haven’t listened to Radio 4 in 20 years or more. I will draw a veil over what I actually do in bed.

AlastairMeeks said:

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Facebook, incidentally, is a very good place of getting news if you want to find out what gets the attention of people enough to talk proactively about it to their family and friends. It often informs what I choose to write about, as with today’s piece.

You mean you lie in bed reading facebook, and not listening to radio 4? Shame on you, sir.

I’m afraid I haven’t listened to Radio 4 in 20 years or more. I will draw a veil over what I actually do in bed.

Sounds kinky...

stodge said:

Afternoon all

I confess I'm confused. The EU have said the WA won't be renegotiated and this has been confirmed by Leo Varadkar and others.

Yet the Conservative leadership candidates (well, some of them) seem convinced there is a re-negotiation to be had - someone is right and someone is wrong.

If the WA can't or isn't amended, is it any more likely to get through the Commons with Johnson as PM than it did with May as PM? I suppose it's conceivable more Conservatives will support it but if there is still no majority, what then?

[snip for length]

... I keep coming back to the conundrum - if the WA isn't going to be negotiated according to the EU and assuming changing the PM doesn't make enough difference to the parliamentary arithmetic to get the WA through the Commons, what can or will change before October? We are back to either leaving without an agreed WA on 31/10, revoking A50 or seeking yet another extension. None of the Conservative leadership candidates seem able to resolve this credibly as far as I can see.

The headbangers' objection is not (always) to the WA itself but to the backstop. The WA is a 2-year transition agreement while a permanent deal is negotiated. The backstop kicks in only if no deal can be agreed in that time.

The obvious variant on May's WA is just to extend the transition period for another couple of years, ostensibly so that a technological solution to the Ireland border can be developed. If Boris or whoever so wished, this could be accompanied by removing Theresa May's red lines on FOM, which she plucked out of thin air.

The EU can agree to that. We can exit on halloween. Boris can win his snap election.

Then spend five years negotiating a permanent deal because even if we left tomorrow with no deal, we'd immediately have to start negotiating deals with the EU anyway, since Europe is not going away and we shan't be towing our island into the mid-Atlantic.

ydoethur said:

AlastairMeeks said:

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Facebook, incidentally, is a very good place of getting news if you want to find out what gets the attention of people enough to talk proactively about it to their family and friends. It often informs what I choose to write about, as with today’s piece.

You mean you lie in bed reading facebook, and not listening to radio 4? Shame on you, sir.

I’m afraid I haven’t listened to Radio 4 in 20 years or more. I will draw a veil over what I actually do in bed.

Sounds kinky...

Alastair and partner playing with his ginger nuts .... biscuits of course, he doesn't like to share ....

Empty lectern for Boris ....

DecrepitJohnL said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

I confess I'm confused. The EU have said the WA won't be renegotiated and this has been confirmed by Leo Varadkar and others.

Yet the Conservative leadership candidates (well, some of them) seem convinced there is a re-negotiation to be had - someone is right and someone is wrong.

If the WA can't or isn't amended, is it any more likely to get through the Commons with Johnson as PM than it did with May as PM? I suppose it's conceivable more Conservatives will support it but if there is still no majority, what then?

[snip for length]

... I keep coming back to the conundrum - if the WA isn't going to be negotiated according to the EU and assuming changing the PM doesn't make enough difference to the parliamentary arithmetic to get the WA through the Commons, what can or will change before October? We are back to either leaving without an agreed WA on 31/10, revoking A50 or seeking yet another extension. None of the Conservative leadership candidates seem able to resolve this credibly as far as I can see.

The headbangers' objection is not (always) to the WA itself but to the backstop. The WA is a 2-year transition agreement while a permanent deal is negotiated. The backstop kicks in only if no deal can be agreed in that time.

The obvious variant on May's WA is just to extend the transition period for another couple of years, ostensibly so that a technological solution to the Ireland border can be developed. If Boris or whoever so wished, this could be accompanied by removing Theresa May's red lines on FOM, which she plucked out of thin air.

The EU can agree to that. We can exit on halloween. Boris can win his snap election.

Then spend five years negotiating a permanent deal because even if we left tomorrow with no deal, we'd immediately have to start negotiating deals with the EU anyway, since Europe is not going away and we shan't be towing our island into the mid-Atlantic.

If were as simple as extending that we would be out by now. Even if it should be that simple clearly everyone has resisted it.

TGOHF said:

Boris didn’t turn up then ? Coward.

His backers will love it. Particularly if they spend the time talking about Boris.

stodge said:

Gallowgate said:

@stodge surely both Farage and Johnson know that the greatest chance of Brexit happening is by avoiding a split pro Brexit vote?

Yes but there seems no appetite for a CON-TBP pact as witnessed by the Conservative members on here. I doubt Johnson could deliver such a thing.

The current numbers show TBP with every chance of supplanting the Conservatives as the main centre-right grouping (I doubt TBP is actually centre-right in all honesty) so this is an existential battle.

Oddly enough, I suspect IF TBP did really well its success would be transient and the Conservatives would be back in a few years. The much-discussed Canadian example saw the centre-right regroup rapidly after the 1993 debacle and 13 years later the Conservatives had recovered from 2 seats to 124 seats in the Canadian Parliament.

Different Conservatives, though.

That Corbyn sounds like a very naughty boy.

TGOHF said:

Boris didn’t turn up then ? Coward.

Did he chicken out or did he just forget?

Gove comes from the same school of "carrying around an imaginary box in my hands" Cameron school of thought.

TGOHF said:

Boris didn’t turn up then ? Coward.

Trump also chose not to turn up for one of the Republican debates in 2016, and that really hurt his electoral chances...

Stewart doing well so far and Dom Raab also. Gove OTT.

Mauve said:

Rory the Tory needs to come in hard from behind.

Oi oi

Luckyguy1983 said:

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/generalboles/status/1140310478520012801?s=21

Good to see them getting some value out of the old 15 to 1 set.

I think they needed to schedule this a couple of weeks earlier to make use of all the lecterns

Gallowgate said:

Gove doing a weird ‘debate voice’. No thanks.

I’m not watching, but look out for his catchphrase “...it’s also the case that...”

JohnO said:

Stewart doing well so far and Dom Raab also. Gove OTT.

Good evening Viscount.

JackW said:

JohnO said:

Stewart doing well so far and Dom Raab also. Gove OTT.

Good evening Viscount.

Greetings, loyal subject, from Bournemouth.

RobD said:

That Corbyn sounds like a very naughty boy.

Yes they all seem none too keen on him. Being downright rude in fact. And he has no right of reply. Grossly unfair - he ought to have been included.

nico67 said:

The over 75 s need to stop whining at the BBC.

The BBC can’t afford to pay for all those over that age , they should blame the government for the decision.

I blame Gordon Brown who coming up with the stupid wheeze in the first place. It has cost us billions over the years.

JackW said:

ydoethur said:

AlastairMeeks said:

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Facebook, incidentally, is a very good place of getting news if you want to find out what gets the attention of people enough to talk proactively about it to their family and friends. It often informs what I choose to write about, as with today’s piece.

You mean you lie in bed reading facebook, and not listening to radio 4? Shame on you, sir.

I’m afraid I haven’t listened to Radio 4 in 20 years or more. I will draw a veil over what I actually do in bed.

Sounds kinky...

Alastair and partner playing with his ginger nuts .... biscuits of course, he doesn't like to share ....

Are the Hob Nobs too salty then?

Raab's getting taken to the cleaners here.

AndyJS said:

I don't think the ICC will be recommending holding a cricket world cup in May / June in England again.

Today’s TV audience was supposed to be the biggest TV audience for any sporting event this year. Not sure many are still tuned in to this rain-soaked anticlimax.

Raab being taken apart on proroguing Parliament. Applause for both The Saj and Rory clearly stating they don't agree with it

Gove trying too hard...not working for me at least (at the moment).

Gove seems pretty stoked up. Has he ... ?

kinabalu said:

Gove seems pretty stoked up. Has he ... ?

Careful.

BBC should raise its revenues in the marketplace same as every other broadcaster.

Either make it subscription based or play adverts. There is plenty of choice available quite literally.

Rory dominating....

I hope no-one's got money on Gove or Raab.

kinabalu said:

Gove seems pretty stoked up. Has he ... ?

...taken a very strong line from Sarah on how he should be coming across?

The no Boris thing would probably be funnier if they directed questions at his lectern and just left it silent for 2 minutes.

Part I thoughts :

1. Stewart - Doing well
2. Javid - Ok plus
3. Gove - Trying too hard
4. Hunt - Anonymous
5. Raab - Bad first part.

Hunt puts boot into Boris