That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I think "high stakes gamble" is putting it mildly. Prime ministers usually call elections when their parties are ahead in the polls, not fourth!
This. People are talking of Boris as if he is a confident gambler, willing to put his life’s dream on the line in a bold make-or-break election. Meanwhile we look at him skulking away hiding from every interview and trying to play it all absolutely safe.
Doesn’t compute!
If Boris gets the job and still commands a majority, he is going to stick around as long as he can, just as Mrs May has done.
There might be an election IF the Tory remainers take the career-finishing decision to VONC him down AND a majority cannot be assembled around a replacement. But that’s a big IF. Sure, it’s possible. But the odds aren’t that short.
Boris Johnson famously wrote two articles when deciding whether to back Remain or Leave. He's a ditherer, not a gambler.
And proposed a toast to the Chequers deal, then resigned but only after seeing Davis running for the door.
There is little in Boris’s back story that suggests he is going to be a bold, brave and decisive leader.
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Also, don't underestimate tactical voting. Part of Johnson't challenge this weekend is to discourage it, but there is a pretty good argument given he is so far ahead for some of his supporters to peel off to knock out people they see as most dangerous. And it's a fairly reasonable argument for a Johnson supporter to see Hunt, Gove and Javid as most dangerous for their man.
There is an overwhelming argument for Johnson supporters not to engage in tactical voting given what happened to Portillo and the fact that Johnson is a shoo-in if he makes the final two, so it doesn't really matter who his opponent is.
Johnson basically already has made the final two.
He has more than a third of the votes, so arithmetically he must make the last two unless he actually loses support.
Could we really have an election campaign during August? If so, possible dates for the election itself are 12th or 19th September.
Nope. The FTPA is very prescriptive - 25 working days between dissolution and polling day. Parliament breaks for the summer mid July (exact date still TBC) which means Boris would have to call for an election at his first session at the dispatch box, with the election at the end of August...
Could the summer recess be canned?
Yes
Or shortened?
Primary school kids might need a six to seven week holiday from late July to early September - MPs perhaps not?
The Lib Dems have a decent lead 18 to 11 over Labour in over 65s in the YouGov poll.
Labour will never win an election if they can’t narrow the gap between them and the Tories in that age range .
It is remarkable how Labour has squandered its polling position amongst the older generation. Back in Jan 2013 the party was polling 34% amongst over 60s. There is plenty with which to challenge the mantra that the Tories are the ones who care for pensioners and to contrast that with the material improvements that took place over the period 1997 to 2010.
Fortunately Boris should get a majority of Brexit Party voters back to the Tories, Labour though will have a bigger problem if they really have fallen behind the LDs unless Corbyn commits to EUref2 (which could in turn cost Labour Leave voting marginal seats like Peterborough)
Boris will as PM have to face reality, for once; he’ll no longer be able to run away. BXP voters won’t.
Even under Boris the Brexit Party gets 13% but he still wins on 29% as Corbyn Labour can only tie the LDs on 22% each
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I think "high stakes gamble" is putting it mildly. Prime ministers usually call elections when their parties are ahead in the polls, not fourth!
If Boris gets the job and still commands a majority, he is going to stick around as long as he can, just as Mrs May has done.
There might be an election IF the Tory remainers take the career-finishing decision to VONC him down AND a majority cannot be assembled around a replacement. But that’s a big IF. Sure, it’s possible. But the odds aren’t that short.
Sorry Ian but I don't think you're paying close enough attention to the actual arithmetic.
The current majority with the DUP is 5, so you can bin all use of the word 'command.' Even if, huge if, the situation remained like this can you really imagine another 3 years of Boris trying to pass legislation with that kind of slender margin? It will be a case of defeat after defeat.
More serious than that is that the arithmetic is only going one way, and that's downwards for the tories.
Brecon & Radnor recall will be announced next Thursday. Let's assume it's successful, the majority instantly falls to 4.
The LibDems will most likely win the by-election, that takes us to 3.
If it's true that Phillip Lee is about to defect to the LibDems that takes it down to 1.
Boris is very divisive, including among his own side. The chances of further defections or tories abstaining / voting directly against are extremely high.
I simply cannot see Boris trying to govern with a non-existent mandate in the House of Commons. He will have to go for it and try to take Corbyn to the cleaners. The best time to do that is straightaway during his honeymoon.
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I think "high stakes gamble" is putting it mildly. Prime ministers usually call elections when their parties are ahead in the polls, not fourth!
This. People are talking of Boris as if he is a confident gambler, willing to put his life’s dream on the line in a bold make-or-break election. Meanwhile we look at him skulking away hiding from every interview and trying to play it all absolutely safe.
Doesn’t compute!
If Boris gets the job and still commands a majority, he is going to stick around as long as he can, just as Mrs May has done.
There might be an election IF the Tory remainers take the career-finishing decision to VONC him down AND a majority cannot be assembled around a replacement. But that’s a big IF. Sure, it’s possible. But the odds aren’t that short.
Boris Johnson famously wrote two articles when deciding whether to back Remain or Leave. He's a ditherer, not a gambler.
I'm surprised that Leavers are prepared to trust him with Brexit over Rabb or Gove. How many jobs has he been sacked from lying? How many more has he kept despite lying?
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Also, don't underestimate tactical voting. Part of Johnson't challenge this weekend is to discourage it, but there is a pretty good argument given he is so far ahead for some of his supporters to peel off to knock out people they see as most dangerous. And it's a fairly reasonable argument for a Johnson supporter to see Hunt, Gove and Javid as most dangerous for their man.
Actually Raab polls better with Tory members v Boris than all of the above, if it was a Raab v Boris final 2 that is the only runoff I could see Boris losing, though I think he would still win it
Raab is finished in this contest. His pitch was as a more palatable version of Johnson, but the MPs don't appear to agree that he's actually more palatable, or that one is needed.
You can make a case for any of the other remaining candidates gathering up the votes of the others as the contest progresses, creating an acceptable alternative to Johnson. There's no case for Raab, and it's just a question of the optimal exit strategy for his future career now.
That depends, if Raab picks up most of McVey and Leadsom's voters, then some of Javid and Gove's he could reach the last 2
Just backed 2019 GE at 2.7 largely as a result of @Mysticrose's articulate explanation of why this is likely. Ably backed up by others including @RochdalePioneers.
Yes, compelling posts by those two. And I do think 2.7 is value.
However, on balance, I think he will bottle it. Having achieved his life's ambition and made it to PM, it will be a massive move to risk it before he's hardly unpacked.
Hope he does go for it though. I am long of a 2019 GE for one thing (since I thought erroneously that May might go for it) and more importantly if he does go to the country in say Oct, the country gets the opportunity to tell HIM where to go.
The Lib Dems have a decent lead 18 to 11 over Labour in over 65s in the YouGov poll.
Labour will never win an election if they can’t narrow the gap between them and the Tories in that age range .
It is remarkable how Labour has squandered its polling position amongst the older generation. Back in Jan 2013 the party was polling 34% amongst over 60s. There is plenty with which to challenge the mantra that the Tories are the ones who care for pensioners and to contrast that with the material improvements that took place over the period 1997 to 2010.
Astonishing to think Blair even won pensioners narrowly in 1997
And the longer those ex Labour stay away the more likely that’s going to become permanent and even if Corbyn changes his stance his begrudging move and half hearted attitude will still hurt Labour .
Are they "ex Labour" or are they people who lent their vote to Labour in a unique election to prevent May winning a landslide?
I think a bit of both .
I normally vote Labour but swing occasionally to the Lib Dems depending on where I lived . I’m one of those outcasts who think the last Labour government did well domestically.
However now in a marginal between Labour and Lib Dems unless Corbyn comes out for a second vote I won’t be voting for them. However Peterborough gives Labour some hope , faced with the BP or Tories I would vote Labour even without a second vote promise .
It’s this aspect which the current polling won’t pick up .
That's a pretty common view in my circle of pro-EU left-liberal voters. Personally I think (contrary to RochdalePioneer) that Labour will offer "best possible EU deal vs Remain", but will resist committing to campaigning for either ("we shall leave it to voters to make the choice").
As someone in that left liberal pro EU group I hate Brexit but wouldn’t risk enabling a Tory win by trying to make a point in a GE where the seat is a Labour v Tory marginal.
If Corbyn still refuses to move , Labour pro EU voters need to think carefully if a GE election happens before Brexit . If we inadvertently give a majority to some horrible Tory BP coalition then we’re out of the EU anyway with the hardest of Brexits.
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Also, don't underestimate tactical voting. Part of Johnson't challenge this weekend is to discourage it, but there is a pretty good argument given he is so far ahead for some of his supporters to peel off to knock out people they see as most dangerous. And it's a fairly reasonable argument for a Johnson supporter to see Hunt, Gove and Javid as most dangerous for their man.
There is an overwhelming argument for Johnson supporters not to engage in tactical voting given what happened to Portillo and the fact that Johnson is a shoo-in if he makes the final two, so it doesn't really matter who his opponent is.
It was actually IDS supporters who engaged in tactical voting in 2001 to knock out Portillo and fave Clarke in the final 2 but Portillo ended up losing by only 1 vote to IDS so it almost backfired
I was distantly involved at the time. IDS supporters may have tactically voted Clarke, but some Eurosceptic MPs also definitely voted IDS while preferring Portillo, with the intention of ensuring that the final choice couldn't result in a pro-Euro leader. I know who was co-ordinating that tactical voting.
Raab isn't a serious possibility with his MP's. They think it's all a little too murky for their liking.
If Boris does dither (Alastair) then I think the tories are absolutely finished. Once the honeymoon wears off and the reality of defeat after defeat sets in at the House of Commons, they will be viewed like the tail end of John Major's '92-97 Gov't. The long slide to crushing defeat.
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I think "high stakes gamble" is putting it mildly. Prime ministers usually call elections when their parties are ahead in the polls, not fourth!
If Boris gets the job and still commands a majority, he is going to stick around as long as he can, just as Mrs May has done.
There might be an election IF the Tory remainers take the career-finishing decision to VONC him down AND a majority cannot be assembled around a replacement. But that’s a big IF. Sure, it’s possible. But the odds aren’t that short.
Sorry Ian but I don't think you're paying close enough attention to the actual arithmetic.
The current majority with the DUP is 5, so you can bin all use of the word 'command.' Even if, huge if, the situation remained like this can you really imagine another 3 years of Boris trying to pass legislation with that kind of slender margin? It will be a case of defeat after defeat.
More serious than that is that the arithmetic is only going one way, and that's downwards for the tories.
Brecon & Radnor recall will be announced next Thursday. Let's assume it's successful, the majority instantly falls to 4.
The LibDems will most likely win the by-election, that takes us to 3.
If it's true that Phillip Lee is about to defect to the LibDems that takes it down to 1.
Boris is very divisive, including among his own side. The chances of further defections or tories abstaining / voting directly against are extremely high.
I simply cannot see Boris trying to govern with a non-existent mandate in the House of Commons. He will have to go for it and try to take Corbyn to the cleaners. The best time to do that is straightaway during his honeymoon.
Yet only a few days back, contenders were under pressure from MPs to rule out an early election. Now you think MPs are ready to have one, though the polls are even worse?
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I think "high stakes gamble" is putting it mildly. Prime ministers usually call elections when their parties are ahead in the polls, not fourth!
If Boris gets the job and still commands a majority, he is going to stick around as long as he can, just as Mrs May has done.
There might be an election IF the Tory remainers take the career-finishing decision to VONC him down AND a majority cannot be assembled around a replacement. But that’s a big IF. Sure, it’s possible. But the odds aren’t that short.
Sorry Ian but I don't think you're paying close enough attention to the actual arithmetic.
The current majority with the DUP is 5, so you can bin all use of the word 'command.' Even if, huge if, the situation remained like this can you really imagine another 3 years of Boris trying to pass legislation with that kind of slender margin? It will be a case of defeat after defeat.
More serious than that is that the arithmetic is only going one way, and that's downwards for the tories.
Brecon & Radnor recall will be announced next Thursday. Let's assume it's successful, the majority instantly falls to 4.
The LibDems will most likely win the by-election, that takes us to 3.
If it's true that Phillip Lee is about to defect to the LibDems that takes it down to 1.
Boris is very divisive, including among his own side. The chances of further defections or tories abstaining / voting directly against are extremely high.
I simply cannot see Boris trying to govern with a non-existent mandate in the House of Commons. He will have to go for it and try to take Corbyn to the cleaners. The best time to do that is straightaway during his honeymoon.
Hmm. Maybe the least terrible time, rather than the best?
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I think "high stakes gamble" is putting it mildly. Prime ministers usually call elections when their parties are ahead in the polls, not fourth!
This. People are talking of Boris as if he is a confident gambler, willing to put his life’s dream on the line in a bold make-or-break election. Meanwhile we look at him skulking away hiding from every interview and trying to play it all absolutely safe.
Doesn’t compute!
If Boris gets the job and still commands a majority, he is going to stick around as long as he can, just as Mrs May has done.
There might be an election IF the Tory remainers take the career-finishing decision to VONC him down AND a majority cannot be assembled around a replacement. But that’s a big IF. Sure, it’s possible. But the odds aren’t that short.
Boris Johnson famously wrote two articles when deciding whether to back Remain or Leave. He's a ditherer, not a gambler.
I'm surprised that Leavers are prepared to trust him with Brexit over Rabb or Gove. How many jobs has he been sacked from lying? How many more has he kept despite lying?
They may well not trust him over Raab, but what choice do they have?
If they back Raab and he loses, they've got no currency at all with Johnson. Yes, he MIGHT stab them in the back anyway, but he'll definitely stab them in the front if they go with Raab.
And Gove, although a Brexiteer, did stay loyal to May and essentially his offering is May 2.0, now with added "belief" (for all that's worth).
By my calculation, that's 319 who are not-Tories, not-DUP, not Sinn Fein, and not the Speaker, v. 313 Tories.
So the Tories+DUP = 323, a majority of 4 over the rest. If the DUP abstain, then the Tories lose a confidence vote by 6. (Though technically they have a "confidence and supply" agreement - so they shouldn't do that!)
Don't forget the dep speakers
Ah. Of course.
That makes it 317 who are not Tories, plus 312 Tories.
The Gvernment would lose a confidence vote by 5 if the DUP abstain, and a Gov win by 5 if the DUP honour the confidence + supply agreement.
Not all non-Tories will support a VONC.
Won't need to be a confidence vote. Boris will propose an early election motion and challenge magic grandpa to not back him.
Think about why an early election with the Tories promising guaranteed Brexit on Halloween: Gut the Brexit Party risk Destroy Corbyn Remove the wets Win a majority allowing Bozza to do what he wants
Or wait: Allow Farage to become saint-like amongst Brexity people Allow Brexit Party to embed itself in people's voting intention Allow Labour time to give Jezbollah an early retirement to the allotment Cement the Tories as the party of dither
He will go to the country. 17th or 24th October.
I think that your assessment is correct.
Logically this has to be the only viable option. But how will he avoid a VoNC beforehand ?
If he loses the VONC, then the election is brought forward.
...unless somebody else can demonstrate within 14 days that they can win the confidence of the house. FTPA, remember?
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I think "high stakes gamble" is putting it mildly. Prime ministers usually call elections when their parties are ahead in the polls, not fourth!
If Boris gets the job and still commands a majority, he is going to stick around as long as he can, just as Mrs May has done.
There might be an election IF the Tory remainers take the career-finishing decision to VONC him down AND a majority cannot be assembled around a replacement. But that’s a big IF. Sure, it’s possible. But the odds aren’t that short.
Sorry Ian but I don't think you're paying close enough attention to the actual arithmetic.
The current majority with the DUP is 5, so you can bin all use of the word 'command.' Even if, huge if, the situation remained like this can you really imagine another 3 years of Boris trying to pass legislation with that kind of slender margin? It will be a case of defeat after defeat.
More serious than that is that the arithmetic is only going one way, and that's downwards for the tories.
Brecon & Radnor recall will be announced next Thursday. Let's assume it's successful, the majority instantly falls to 4.
The LibDems will most likely win the by-election, that takes us to 3.
If it's true that Phillip Lee is about to defect to the LibDems that takes it down to 1.
Boris is very divisive, including among his own side. The chances of further defections or tories abstaining / voting directly against are extremely high.
I simply cannot see Boris trying to govern with a non-existent mandate in the House of Commons. He will have to go for it and try to take Corbyn to the cleaners. The best time to do that is straightaway during his honeymoon.
In terms of Brexit legislation, it makes no difference if serial rebels such as Lee and the others defect.
And the longer those ex Labour stay away the more likely that’s going to become permanent and even if Corbyn changes his stance his begrudging move and half hearted attitude will still hurt Labour .
Are they "ex Labour" or are they people who lent their vote to Labour in a unique election to prevent May winning a landslide?
I think a bit of both .
I normally vote Labour but swing occasionally to the Lib Dems depending on where I lived . I’m one of those outcasts who think the last Labour government did well domestically.
However now in a marginal between Labour and Lib Dems unless Corbyn comes out for a second vote I won’t be voting for them. However Peterborough gives Labour some hope , faced with the BP or Tories I would vote Labour even without a second vote promise .
It’s this aspect which the current polling won’t pick up .
That's a pretty common view in my circle of pro-EU left-liberal voters. Personally I think (contrary to RochdalePioneer) that Labour will offer "best possible EU deal vs Remain", but will resist committing to campaigning for either ("we shall leave it to voters to make the choice").
As someone in that left liberal pro EU group I hate Brexit but wouldn’t risk enabling a Tory win by trying to make a point in a GE where the seat is a Labour v Tory marginal.
If Corbyn still refuses to move , Labour pro EU voters need to think carefully if a GE election happens before Brexit . If we inadvertently give a majority to some horrible Tory BP coalition then we’re out of the EU anyway with the hardest of Brexits.
The other change is that many ordinary folk are a LOT more interested and engaged in the political minutiae than ever before (BBC Parliament viewers topping a million in January, six million signing the petition, etc.). If this level of interest carries over into an early GE, we can expect for a lot more intelligent tactical voting patterns than we’ve seen previously, doubtless helped along by a lot more online activity to point people the way.
By my calculation, that's 319 who are not-Tories, not-DUP, not Sinn Fein, and not the Speaker, v. 313 Tories.
So the Tories+DUP = 323, a majority of 4 over the rest. If the DUP abstain, then the Tories lose a confidence vote by 6. (Though technically they have a "confidence and supply" agreement - so they shouldn't do that!)
Don't forget the dep speakers
Ah. Of course.
That makes it 317 who are not Tories, plus 312 Tories.
The Gvernment would lose a confidence vote by 5 if the DUP abstain, and a Gov win by 5 if the DUP honour the confidence + supply agreement.
Not all non-Tories will support a VONC.
Won't need to be a confidence vote. Boris will propose an early election motion and challenge magic grandpa to not back him.
Think about why an early election with the Tories promising guaranteed Brexit on Halloween: Gut the Brexit Party risk Destroy Corbyn Remove the wets Win a majority allowing Bozza to do what he wants
Or wait: Allow Farage to become saint-like amongst Brexity people Allow Brexit Party to embed itself in people's voting intention Allow Labour time to give Jezbollah an early retirement to the allotment Cement the Tories as the party of dither
He will go to the country. 17th or 24th October.
I think that your assessment is correct.
Logically this has to be the only viable option. But how will he avoid a VoNC beforehand ?
If he loses the VONC, then the election is brought forward.
...unless somebody else can demonstrate within 14 days that they can win the confidence of the house. FTPA, remember?
Which takes us back to my “one-job Government” scenario under someone like Clarke.
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I think "high stakes gamble" is putting it mildly. Prime ministers usually call elections when their parties are ahead in the polls, not fourth!
This. People are talking of Boris as if he is a confident gambler, willing to put his life’s dream on the line in a bold make-or-break election. Meanwhile we look at him skulking away hiding from every interview and trying to play it all absolutely safe.
Doesn’t compute!
If Boris gets the job and still commands a majority, he is going to stick around as long as he can, just as Mrs May has done.
There might be an election IF the Tory remainers take the career-finishing decision to VONC him down AND a majority cannot be assembled around a replacement. But that’s a big IF. Sure, it’s possible. But the odds aren’t that short.
Boris Johnson famously wrote two articles when deciding whether to back Remain or Leave. He's a ditherer, not a gambler.
To be fair to him, he does dither but eventually he makes a decision. But it does take time, he's not instinctive.
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Also, don't underestimate tactical voting. Part of Johnson't challenge this weekend is to discourage it, but there is a pretty good argument given he is so far ahead for some of his supporters to peel off to knock out people they see as most dangerous. And it's a fairly reasonable argument for a Johnson supporter to see Hunt, Gove and Javid as most dangerous for their man.
Actually Raab polls better with Tory members v Boris than all of the above, if it was a Raab v Boris final 2 that is the only runoff I could see Boris losing, though I think he would still win it
Raab is finished in this contest. His pitch was as a more palatable version of Johnson, but the MPs don't appear to agree that he's actually more palatable, or that one is needed.
You can make a case for any of the other remaining candidates gathering up the votes of the others as the contest progresses, creating an acceptable alternative to Johnson. There's no case for Raab, and it's just a question of the optimal exit strategy for his future career now.
That depends, if Raab picks up most of McVey and Leadsom's voters, then some of Javid and Gove's he could reach the last 2
There is no reason for switchers to switch to Raab since Boris has committed to a date and looks like winning. Switchers should logically move to Boris or one of the softer candidates.
The only reason for switching to Raab would be, as @SirNorfolkPassmore suggested, and as is regular feature of Conservative elections, for Boris's team to pick a weaker opponent. Trouble is, if the members in the country really are obsessed by Brexit, then Raab might not be that ideal opponent, and Boris would be safer against someone who seen as soft on the project.
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I think "high stakes gamble" is putting it mildly. Prime ministers usually call elections when their parties are ahead in the polls, not fourth!
If Boris gets the job and still commands a majority, he is going to stick around as long as he can, just as Mrs May has done.
There might be an election IF the Tory remainers take the career-finishing decision to VONC him down AND a majority cannot be assembled around a replacement. But that’s a big IF. Sure, it’s possible. But the odds aren’t that short.
Sorry Ian but I don't think you're paying close enough attention to the actual arithmetic.
The current majority with the DUP is 5, so you can bin all use of the word 'command.' Even if, huge if, the situation remained like this can you really imagine another 3 years of Boris trying to pass legislation with that kind of slender margin? It will be a case of defeat after defeat.
More serious than that is that the arithmetic is only going one way, and that's downwards for the tories.
Brecon & Radnor recall will be announced next Thursday. Let's assume it's successful, the majority instantly falls to 4.
The LibDems will most likely win the by-election, that takes us to 3.
If it's true that Phillip Lee is about to defect to the LibDems that takes it down to 1.
Boris is very divisive, including among his own side. The chances of further defections or tories abstaining / voting directly against are extremely high.
I simply cannot see Boris trying to govern with a non-existent mandate in the House of Commons. He will have to go for it and try to take Corbyn to the cleaners. The best time to do that is straightaway during his honeymoon.
Yet only a few days back, contenders were under pressure from MPs to rule out an early election. Now you think MPs are ready to have one, though the polls are even worse?
p.s. and the other point is a BIG difference between rebelling against your own government to back a Letwin amendment or similar, and rebelling to vote it down in a VONC.
Yes Sugar backed Thatcher then switched to Labour under Blair and Brown and has now switched back to the Tories again
I wonder how he squares that (very good) speech he did in the HoL about politicians should not be allowed to lie to the public in the same way as CEOs are not allowed to mislead shareholders, with him now backing someone who is renowned for being extremely economical with the truth?
Ooh, the BBC interviewer almost got Boris to say “let’s cross that bridge...” in relation to a possible delay in the leaving date, but Boris swerved just in time.
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I think "high stakes gamble" is putting it mildly. Prime ministers usually call elections when their parties are ahead in the polls, not fourth!
This. People are talking of Boris as if he is a confident gambler, willing to put his life’s dream on the line in a bold make-or-break election. Meanwhile we look at him skulking away hiding from every interview and trying to play it all absolutely safe.
Doesn’t compute!
If Boris gets the job and still commands a majority, he is going to stick around as long as he can, just as Mrs May has done.
There might be an election IF the Tory remainers take the career-finishing decision to VONC him down AND a majority cannot be assembled around a replacement. But that’s a big IF. Sure, it’s possible. But the odds aren’t that short.
Boris Johnson famously wrote two articles when deciding whether to back Remain or Leave. He's a ditherer, not a gambler.
I'm surprised that Leavers are prepared to trust him with Brexit over Rabb or Gove. How many jobs has he been sacked from lying? How many more has he kept despite lying?
They may well not trust him over Raab, but what choice do they have?
If they back Raab and he loses, they've got no currency at all with Johnson. Yes, he MIGHT stab them in the back anyway, but he'll definitely stab them in the front if they go with Raab.
And Gove, although a Brexiteer, did stay loyal to May and essentially his offering is May 2.0, now with added "belief" (for all that's worth).
I think next week you may start to see some ERGers who endorsed Boris secretly voting Raab to try and ensure an all hard Brexiteer final 2
And the longer those ex Labour stay away the more likely that’s going to become permanent and even if Corbyn changes his stance his begrudging move and half hearted attitude will still hurt Labour .
Are they "ex Labour" or are they people who lent their vote to Labour in a unique election to prevent May winning a landslide?
I think a bit of both .
I normally vote Labour but swing occasionally to the Lib Dems depending on where I lived . I’m one of those outcasts who think the last Labour government did well domestically.
However now in a marginal between Labour and Lib Dems unless Corbyn comes out for a second vote I won’t be voting for them. However Peterborough gives Labour some hope , faced with the BP or Tories I would vote Labour even without a second vote promise .
It’s this aspect which the current polling won’t pick up .
That's a pretty common view in my circle of pro-EU left-liberal voters. Personally I think (contrary to RochdalePioneer) that Labour will offer "best possible EU deal vs Remain", but will resist committing to campaigning for either ("we shall leave it to voters to make the choice").
As someone in that left liberal pro EU group I hate Brexit but wouldn’t risk enabling a Tory win by trying to make a point in a GE where the seat is a Labour v Tory marginal.
If Corbyn still refuses to move , Labour pro EU voters need to think carefully if a GE election happens before Brexit . If we inadvertently give a majority to some horrible Tory BP coalition then we’re out of the EU anyway with the hardest of Brexits.
My case for Labour offering Corbyn's Unicorn deal vs no deal is what Corbyn and his sockpuppets keep saying over and over and over again.
If Corbyn intended for remain to be on the ballot he would say so. Instead he very grudgingly accepts the push for a vote and repeats that it can't be a rerun of 2016 as the people have already decided. That a party spokesperson later clarifies his comments and says remain would be on as well doesn't fill me with any confidence.
Corbyn hates the EU, has done for decades, isn't about to relent now.
Just backed 2019 GE at 2.7 largely as a result of @Mysticrose's articulate explanation of why this is likely. Ably backed up by others including @RochdalePioneers.
Yes, compelling posts by those two. And I do think 2.7 is value.
However, on balance, I think he will bottle it. Having achieved his life's ambition and made it to PM, it will be a massive move to risk it before he's hardly unpacked.
Hope he does go for it though. I am long of a 2019 GE for one thing (since I thought erroneously that May might go for it) and more importantly if he does go to the country in say Oct, the country gets the opportunity to tell HIM where to go.
I will have a lot of thinking to do. I loathe him and have said I would resign my membership if he becomes leader. But...but...Jeremy Corbyn as PM? Unfathomable.
So what are the scenarios ? I am going to do a @kinabalu to refine my thinking while writing.
1) Calls GE wins off he goes into the sunset (sans moi but he'll live with it) 2) Calls GE loses gets booted out 3) Doesn't call GE but then, as per @Mysticrose's arithmetic, has the sword of Damocles hanging over his head for the next three years.
I am torn. all logic says that the probabilities should be:
1) 40% 2) 40% 3) 20%
But you know my view on the WA being the only option possible and BoZo doing something creative PR-wise with it in which case the odds switch to:
1) 20% 2) 20% 3) 60%
I'm glad I've cleared that up for everyone. Your welcome.
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Also, don't underestimate tactical voting. Part of Johnson't challenge this weekend is to discourage it, but there is a pretty good argument given he is so far ahead for some of his supporters to peel off to knock out people they see as most dangerous. And it's a fairly reasonable argument for a Johnson supporter to see Hunt, Gove and Javid as most dangerous for their man.
Actually Raab polls better with Tory members v Boris than all of the above, if it was a Raab v Boris final 2 that is the only runoff I could see Boris losing, though I think he would still win it
Raab is finished in this contest. His pitch was as a more palatable version of Johnson, but the MPs don't appear to agree that he's actually more palatable, or that one is needed.
You can make a case for any of the other remaining candidates gathering up the votes of the others as the contest progresses, creating an acceptable alternative to Johnson. There's no case for Raab, and it's just a question of the optimal exit strategy for his future career now.
That depends, if Raab picks up most of McVey and Leadsom's voters, then some of Javid and Gove's he could reach the last 2
There is no reason for switchers to switch to Raab since Boris has committed to a date and looks like winning. Switchers should logically move to Boris or one of the softer candidates.
The only reason for switching to Raab would be, as @SirNorfolkPassmore suggested, and as is regular feature of Conservative elections, to pick a weaker opponent. Trouble is, if the members in the country really are obsessed by Brexit, then Raab might not be that ideal opponent, and Boris would be safer against someone who seen as soft on the project.
Boris would be safer with members with Hunt, Stewart and even Gove than Raab certainly.
Raab could actually beat Boris if he got to the membership
Labour is becoming the party of the anti-Semites and not-bothered about the EU Con is becoming the party of the anti-Muslims and the Leavers Lib is becoming the party of the not-bothered-about-religion and the Remainers Brexit is becoming the party of the not-bothered-about-religion and the Leavers
How the hell we ended up with that is an interesting story, but not one I will have the time to deduce any time soon...
I'm surprised that Leavers are prepared to trust him with Brexit over Rabb or Gove. How many jobs has he been sacked from lying? How many more has he kept despite lying?
They may well not trust him over Raab, but what choice do they have?
If they back Raab and he loses, they've got no currency at all with Johnson. Yes, he MIGHT stab them in the back anyway, but he'll definitely stab them in the front if they go with Raab.
And Gove, although a Brexiteer, did stay loyal to May and essentially his offering is May 2.0, now with added "belief" (for all that's worth).
Yes, you're right if they're angling for influence or jobs, then Johnson is a safer bet. But if they actually care about Brexit happening (as they see it), it seems a strange choice to me.
Yes Sugar backed Thatcher then switched to Labour under Blair and Brown and has now switched back to the Tories again
I wonder how he squares that (very good) speech he did in the HoL about politicians should not be allowed to lie to the public in the same way as CEOs are not allowed to mislead shareholders, with him now backing someone who is renowned for being extremely economical with the truth?
The alternative is likely still a minority Corbyn or Farage Government for the moment
On these numbers, how many seats do BXP prevent Cons / Lab from winning, but don't win themselves? I imagine this will lead to many Peterboroughs: BXP doesn't win but the winner isn't really apparent before hand? I think these numbers under FPTP equal Lab as the largest party, as it's the Tories losing the largest chunks to BXP (although Lab lose more to LDs). So a Lab led gov that needs LD / G / SNP / PC support would obvs go a 2nd ref route, and then if Leave win again a Lab soft brexit, and if remain win all hell breaks loose?
I would read almost nothing into the numbers. This kind of result would be very wild.
Looks like Con and Lab wipeout in Scotland. Lab sub 10%.
Which takes us back to my “one-job Government” scenario under someone like Clarke.
Or alternatively - if there is a snap GE and Labour become the largest party with a firm offer of Ref2, the resulting Labour minority administration with LD and SNP support could be the 'One Job Government' that you envisage.
There might be an election IF the Tory remainers take the career-finishing decision to VONC him down AND a majority cannot be assembled around a replacement. But that’s a big IF. Sure, it’s possible. But the odds aren’t that short.
In some constituencies (and obviously there's no single national answer for this), "career-finishing" could be sticking with the party that's fourth in the polls. "Career-preserving" might be jumping ship to the Lib Dems and, yes, VONCing the Government.
How many Conservative remainers are in Tory/LD marginals? (Any?)
And the longer those ex Labour stay away the more likely that’s going to become permanent and even if Corbyn changes his stance his begrudging move and half hearted attitude will still hurt Labour .
Are they "ex Labour" or are they people who lent their vote to Labour in a unique election to prevent May winning a landslide?
I think a bit of both .
I normally vote Labour but swing occasionally to the Lib Dems depending on where I lived . I’m one of those outcasts who think the last Labour government did well domestically.
However now in a marginal between Labour and Lib Dems unless Corbyn comes out for a second vote I won’t be voting for them. However Peterborough gives Labour some hope , faced with the BP or Tories I would vote Labour even without a second vote promise .
It’s this aspect which the current polling won’t pick up .
That's a pretty common view in my circle of pro-EU left-liberal voters. Personally I think (contrary to RochdalePioneer) that Labour will offer "best possible EU deal vs Remain", but will resist committing to campaigning for either ("we shall leave it to voters to make the choice").
As someone in that left liberal pro EU group I hate Brexit but wouldn’t risk enabling a Tory win by trying to make a point in a GE where the seat is a Labour v Tory marginal.
If Corbyn still refuses to move , Labour pro EU voters need to think carefully if a GE election happens before Brexit . If we inadvertently give a majority to some horrible Tory BP coalition then we’re out of the EU anyway with the hardest of Brexits.
My case for Labour offering Corbyn's Unicorn deal vs no deal is what Corbyn and his sockpuppets keep saying over and over and over again.
If Corbyn intended for remain to be on the ballot he would say so. Instead he very grudgingly accepts the push for a vote and repeats that it can't be a rerun of 2016 as the people have already decided. That a party spokesperson later clarifies his comments and says remain would be on as well doesn't fill me with any confidence.
Corbyn hates the EU, has done for decades, isn't about to relent now.
Taking a step back from the psychological analysis of 'what Corbyn really wants', there is no constituency for a referendum on the basis you describe.
It would be dead on arrival in the Commons if ever proposed.
Fascinating watching Conservatives persuade themselves, in defiance of all logic, that Boris Johnson is a safer choice for Number 10 than Jeremy Corbyn. Both look like disastrous choices.
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Also, don't underestimate tactical voting. Part of Johnson't challenge this weekend is to discourage it, but there is a pretty good argument given he is so far ahead for some of his supporters to peel off to knock out people they see as most dangerous. And it's a fairly reasonable argument for a Johnson supporter to see Hunt, Gove and Javid as most dangerous for their man.
Actually Raab polls better with Tory members v Boris than all of the above, if it was a Raab v Boris final 2 that is the only runoff I could see Boris losing, though I think he would still win it
Raab is finished in this contest. His pitch was as a more palatable version of Johnson, but the MPs don't appear to agree that he's actually more palatable, or that one is needed.
You can make a case for any of the other remaining candidates gathering up the votes of the others as the contest progresses, creating an acceptable alternative to Johnson. There's no case for Raab, and it's just a question of the optimal exit strategy for his future career now.
Ladbrokes have gone out with Johnson 10-1 to get under 130 votes in the second ballot. I think that is much too big unless we get another withdrawal before Tuesday. We know 50 votes need to find a new home and there will be more switchers but he's not guaranteed to get 16 of them. Sure he probably will but it's not a 90% chance IMO.
On these numbers, how many seats do BXP prevent Cons / Lab from winning, but don't win themselves? I imagine this will lead to many Peterboroughs: BXP doesn't win but the winner isn't really apparent before hand? I think these numbers under FPTP equal Lab as the largest party, as it's the Tories losing the largest chunks to BXP (although Lab lose more to LDs). So a Lab led gov that needs LD / G / SNP / PC support would obvs go a 2nd ref route, and then if Leave win again a Lab soft brexit, and if remain win all hell breaks loose?
I would read almost nothing into the numbers. This kind of result would be very wild.
Looks like Con and Lab wipeout in Scotland. Lab sub 10%.
Boris though gets the Tories in Scotland back to 20%, just the Brexit Party is currently running second in Scotland
Foreign heads of State visit the UK all the time. The US is our principal trading partner and most important military ally. The idea that we should not invite their Head of State is for the birds.
Otoh the idea that the foreign secretary shouldn't be invited to a state dinner for said head of state because (the colour of) his face doesn't fit is apparently not for the birds. Funny old world.
Much more likely he wasn't invited because he wouldn't bundle Assange on a plane, David Miliband rendition-stylee, than his colour......
Should of course be home secretary!
Pretty sure that In Trump world Javid's non-fitting face would be inextricably linked to any obstructionism over Assange.
Yes Sugar backed Thatcher then switched to Labour under Blair and Brown and has now switched back to the Tories again
I wonder how he squares that (very good) speech he did in the HoL about politicians should not be allowed to lie to the public in the same way as CEOs are not allowed to mislead shareholders, with him now backing someone who is renowned for being extremely economical with the truth?
The alternative is likely still a minority Corbyn or Farage Government for the moment
Well if there is a chance of a Farage government, then there is equally a chance of a LibDem one, probably more so. I doubt either is very likely, even in the current febrile atmosphere. I would be quite happy with the latter . A crypto-fascist government under Farage is pretty terrifying though.
There might be an election IF the Tory remainers take the career-finishing decision to VONC him down AND a majority cannot be assembled around a replacement. But that’s a big IF. Sure, it’s possible. But the odds aren’t that short.
In some constituencies (and obviously there's no single national answer for this), "career-finishing" could be sticking with the party that's fourth in the polls. "Career-preserving" might be jumping ship to the Lib Dems and, yes, VONCing the Government.
How many Conservative remainers are in Tory/LD marginals? (Any?)
Aa fair few of them are in seats where the LibDems used to be distant second, pre-coalition, but I think only Letwin’s looks holdable for a defector
Correct decision for Boris to do the BBC debate but not C4 (what I said he should do on here yesterday)
Boris is box office and no one watches Channel "Fuck The Tories" 4 on a Sunday evening... It's a waste of his time.
Like The Rolling Stones playing Brighton Pavilion.
UK bands frequently fail in the States because they refuse to tour, believing their fame to be sufficient. It's the ones who do the tours to Bumfuck, Arizona and all the gigs they can that succeed.
Fascinating watching Conservatives persuade themselves, in defiance of all logic, that Boris Johnson is a safer choice for Number 10 than Jeremy Corbyn. Both look like disastrous choices.
It's akin to discussing the merits of having a leg or an arm amputated. You can make the case for either being preferable to the other, but you would do everything to avoid amputation of any kind.
On these numbers, how many seats do BXP prevent Cons / Lab from winning, but don't win themselves? I imagine this will lead to many Peterboroughs: BXP doesn't win but the winner isn't really apparent before hand? I think these numbers under FPTP equal Lab as the largest party, as it's the Tories losing the largest chunks to BXP (although Lab lose more to LDs). So a Lab led gov that needs LD / G / SNP / PC support would obvs go a 2nd ref route, and then if Leave win again a Lab soft brexit, and if remain win all hell breaks loose?
I would read almost nothing into the numbers. This kind of result would be very wild.
Looks like Con and Lab wipeout in Scotland. Lab sub 10%.
Boris though gets the Tories in Scotland back to 20%, just the Brexit Party is currently running second in Scotland
Tories to get 20% in Scotland under Boris...another one to write down.
That list could also be consistent with Boris being an out and out wanker who goes for the easy laugh
By that I mean that for someone to be a racist they have a consistent worldview and some kind of hierarchy in their mind.
I think Boris is an supremely self-interested opportunist. Often that has meant him playing the jester because it unifies the group behind him and cruelly laughing at someone else.
Appreciate that’s the same argument as to whether Corbyn is an anti-Semite vs tolerant of anti-Semites.
That is setting the bar for being a racist way too high: basically if you're not Enoch Powell or a member of Combat-18 it's just bantz. You are what you do. If you consistently disparage people on the grounds of race as Johnson has then you are a racist. But I would go beyond that. If you are not part of Johnson's gilded world - if you are black, a Muslim, a woman, a Liverpudlian, then you are fair game. Sadly it is a common, albeit by no means universal, affliction among people from his background.
It’s your last part that’s key
I think that Johnson just picks on the weakest target in front of him. He doesn’t care whether the target is black, white, fat, thin, Scouse or whatever. That makes him a bully rather than a racist
Fascinating watching Conservatives persuade themselves, in defiance of all logic, that Boris Johnson is a safer choice for Number 10 than Jeremy Corbyn. Both look like disastrous choices.
It's akin to discussing the merits of having a leg or an arm amputated. You can make the case for either being preferable to the other, but you would do everything to avoid amputation of any kind.
Yes but we are being wheeled into surgery. So a decision has to be made.
Could we really have an election campaign during August? If so, possible dates for the election itself are 12th or 19th September.
Nope. The FTPA is very prescriptive - 25 working days between dissolution and polling day. Parliament breaks for the summer mid July (exact date still TBC) which means Boris would have to call for an election at his first session at the dispatch box, with the election at the end of August...
Could the summer recess be canned?
Yes
Or shortened?
Primary school kids might need a six to seven week holiday from late July to early September - MPs perhaps not?
I think most voters might like the idea of missing two weeks of every election campaign by being abroad.
Yes Sugar backed Thatcher then switched to Labour under Blair and Brown and has now switched back to the Tories again
I wonder how he squares that (very good) speech he did in the HoL about politicians should not be allowed to lie to the public in the same way as CEOs are not allowed to mislead shareholders, with him now backing someone who is renowned for being extremely economical with the truth?
The alternative is likely still a minority Corbyn or Farage Government for the moment
Well if there is a chance of a Farage government, then there is equally a chance of a LibDem one, probably more so. I doubt either is very likely, even in the current febrile atmosphere. I would be quite happy with the latter . A crypto-fascist government under Farage is pretty terrifying though.
Dave Lister : [to his younger self] Will you stop saying everything's crypto-fascist! You make me sound like I was a complete git!
Fascinating watching Conservatives persuade themselves, in defiance of all logic, that Boris Johnson is a safer choice for Number 10 than Jeremy Corbyn. Both look like disastrous choices.
Indeed. It is a which way would you like to fuck up the economy question. Tory buffoon with extra debt defaulting nationalism, or Labour/Momentum buffoon with extra Venezuelan Marxism?
I did not join in on that one. Wish I had now of course.
The one at 20s that I was thinking of was the famous 'David Miliband to be next Pope'. That was a while ago and IMO it remains unrivaled for value on the lay side.
That list could also be consistent with Boris being an out and out wanker who goes for the easy laugh
By that I mean that for someone to be a racist they have a consistent worldview and some kind of hierarchy in their mind.
I think Boris is an supremely self-interested opportunist. Often that has meant him playing the jester because it unifies the group behind him and cruelly laughing at someone else.
Appreciate that’s the same argument as to whether Corbyn is an anti-Semite vs tolerant of anti-Semites.
That is setting the bar for being a racist way too high: basically if you're not Enoch Powell or a member of Combat-18 it's just bantz. You are what you do. If you consistently disparage people on the grounds of race as Johnson has then you are a racist. But I would go beyond that. If you are not part of Johnson's gilded world - if you are black, a Muslim, a woman, a Liverpudlian, then you are fair game. Sadly it is a common, albeit by no means universal, affliction among people from his background.
It’s your last part that’s key
I think that Johnson just picks on the weakest target in front of him. He doesn’t care whether the target is black, white, fat, thin, Scouse or whatever. That makes him a bully rather than a racist
I did not join in on that one. Wish I had now of course.
The one at 20s that I was thinking of was the famous 'David Miliband to be next Pope'. That was a while ago and IMO it remains unrivaled for value on the lay side.
Tulsi Gabbard was a pretty good value lay at 20, too.
Fascinating watching Conservatives persuade themselves, in defiance of all logic, that Boris Johnson is a safer choice for Number 10 than Jeremy Corbyn. Both look like disastrous choices.
In all fairness, they were always unlikely to appoint Corbyn as Tory leader.
Ooh, the BBC interviewer almost got Boris to say “let’s cross that bridge...” in relation to a possible delay in the leaving date, but Boris swerved just in time.
He swerved when about to cross a bridge? Makes him sound more like Ted Kennedy than Bernard Manning.
Yes Sugar backed Thatcher then switched to Labour under Blair and Brown and has now switched back to the Tories again
I wonder how he squares that (very good) speech he did in the HoL about politicians should not be allowed to lie to the public in the same way as CEOs are not allowed to mislead shareholders, with him now backing someone who is renowned for being extremely economical with the truth?
The alternative is likely still a minority Corbyn or Farage Government for the moment
Well if there is a chance of a Farage government, then there is equally a chance of a LibDem one, probably more so. I doubt either is very likely, even in the current febrile atmosphere. I would be quite happy with the latter . A crypto-fascist government under Farage is pretty terrifying though.
Dave Lister : [to his younger self] Will you stop saying everything's crypto-fascist! You make me sound like I was a complete git!
Oh, sorry, maybe I should have just said fascist. Sorry to wake you up to it, but this is what Farage is, and there ain't much crypto about it.
I am a trad conservative. You know the type, the ones that believe in non nationalistic patriotism, small state, strong economy, good international relations that foster trade and enable business to do well. This was before it was taken over by swivel-eyed "fuck business" nutters that want to screw the economy up and take us back to some sort of 1950s non-utopia, and claim to be REAL conservatives. I am an anti-fascist, and have been all my life. People who think Farage is anything short of this deserving description are either naïve or in denial about their own tendencies.
By my calculation, that's 319 who are not-Tories, not-DUP, not Sinn Fein, and not the Speaker, v. 313 Tories.
So the Tories+DUP = 323, a majority of 4 over the rest. If the DUP abstain, then the Tories lose a confidence vote by 6. (Though technically they have a "confidence and supply" agreement - so they shouldn't do that!)
Don't forget the dep speakers
Ah. Of course.
That makes it 317 who are not Tories, plus 312 Tories.
The Gvernment would lose a confidence vote by 5 if the DUP abstain, and a Gov win by 5 if the DUP honour the confidence + supply agreement.
Not all non-Tories will support a VONC.
Won't need to be a confidence vote. Boris will propose an early election motion and challenge magic grandpa to not back him.
Think about why an early election with the Tories promising guaranteed Brexit on Halloween: Gut the Brexit Party risk Destroy Corbyn Remove the wets Win a majority allowing Bozza to do what he wants
Or wait: Allow Farage to become saint-like amongst Brexity people Allow Brexit Party to embed itself in people's voting intention Allow Labour time to give Jezbollah an early retirement to the allotment Cement the Tories as the party of dither
He will go to the country. 17th or 24th October.
I think that your assessment is correct.
Logically this has to be the only viable option. But how will he avoid a VoNC beforehand ?
If he loses the VONC, then the election is brought forward.
...unless somebody else can demonstrate within 14 days that they can win the confidence of the house. FTPA, remember?
Which takes us back to my “one-job Government” scenario under someone like Clarke.
The current HoC has just failed to pass a motion to set some time aside for a bill to block no deal by some means or other. The idea that this same HoC will block an election Johnson calls and put together some sort of rainbow coalition to revoke Brexit is for the birds. A sizable chunk of MPs don't want no deal, but those same MPs also really really don't want to be caught blocking our exit by the voters, and thereby end up unemployed.
The current HoC has just failed to pass a motion to set some time aside for a bill to block no deal by some means or other. The idea that this same HoC will block an election Johnson calls and put together some sort of rainbow coalition to revoke Brexit is for the birds. A sizable chunk of MPs don't want no deal, but those same MPs also really really don't want to be caught blocking our exit by the voters, and thereby end up unemployed.
A lot will also be looking at those figures and deciding that perhaps they don't want to have an election now.
Equally there was little point in this week's vote - other chances will come...
Yes Sugar backed Thatcher then switched to Labour under Blair and Brown and has now switched back to the Tories again
I wonder how he squares that (very good) speech he did in the HoL about politicians should not be allowed to lie to the public in the same way as CEOs are not allowed to mislead shareholders, with him now backing someone who is renowned for being extremely economical with the truth?
The alternative is likely still a minority Corbyn or Farage Government for the moment
Well if there is a chance of a Farage government, then there is equally a chance of a LibDem one, probably more so. I doubt either is very likely, even in the current febrile atmosphere. I would be quite happy with the latter . A crypto-fascist government under Farage is pretty terrifying though.
Dave Lister : [to his younger self] Will you stop saying everything's crypto-fascist! You make me sound like I was a complete git!
Oh, sorry, maybe I should have just said fascist. Sorry to wake you up to it, but this is what Farage is, and there ain't much crypto about it.
I am a trad conservative. You know the type, the ones that believe in non nationalistic patriotism, small state, strong economy, good international relations that foster trade and enable business to do well. This was before it was taken over by swivel-eyed "fuck business" nutters that want to screw the economy up and take us back to some sort of 1950s non-utopia, and claim to be REAL conservatives. I am an anti-fascist, and have been all my life. People who think Farage is anything short of this deserving description are either naïve or in denial about their own tendencies.
Honestly based on my experiences of Farage it sounds like you believe basically everything he believes except you differ on where the line between patriotism and nationalism is, in that he believes supporting democratic self-government is an intrinsic part of being a patriot, and you believe simplifying businesses' paperwork is a higher priority.
Labour's problem is that it will be offering a referendum which according to the JC would be between his unicorn cake deal and no deal. Remain would not be on the ballot.
Which means that no remainer will switch back...
It would be utterly bonkers electorally for Labour to offer the Referendum but without Remain as an option. I cannot believe they would do that.
If they do, I completely agree with you - goodnight vienna.
Correct decision for Boris to do the BBC debate but not C4 (what I said he should do on here yesterday)
Boris is box office and no one watches Channel "Fuck The Tories" 4 on a Sunday evening... It's a waste of his time.
Like The Rolling Stones playing Brighton Pavilion.
UK bands frequently fail in the States because they refuse to tour, believing their fame to be sufficient. It's the ones who do the tours to Bumfuck, Arizona and all the gigs they can that succeed.
In this analogy it's the likes of Rory and Raab that are those bands that have got to do the circuit to get noticed.
Boris has already made it to the big time. When you reach the big time you can pick and choose. That's why you don't see The Stones playing Stoke Regent on a wet Wednesday evening.
Correct decision for Boris to do the BBC debate but not C4 (what I said he should do on here yesterday)
Boris is box office and no one watches Channel "Fuck The Tories" 4 on a Sunday evening... It's a waste of his time.
Like The Rolling Stones playing Brighton Pavilion.
UK bands frequently fail in the States because they refuse to tour, believing their fame to be sufficient. It's the ones who do the tours to Bumfuck, Arizona and all the gigs they can that succeed.
In this analogy it's the likes of Rory and Raab that are those bands that have got to do the circuit to get noticed.
Boris has already made it to the big time. When you reach the big time you can pick and choose. That's why you don't see The Stones playing Stoke Regent on a wet Wednesday evening.
Hasn’t May’s premiership taught us anything? Hiding and being evasive is not a good look.
Boris is elected on July 22nd. Convention is to hold elections on a Thursday and there must be 25 working days thanks to the FTPA between an election being called and it being held.
That means to hold one on 29th August Parliament most agree to it (434 votes minimum) by July 23rd.
So August isn't a runner
September 5th is just about possible but I would expect it to be September 12th as I'm away then...
By my calculation, that's 319 who are not-Tories, not-DUP, not Sinn Fein, and not the Speaker, v. 313 Tories.
So the Tories+DUP = 323, a majority of 4 over the rest. If the DUP abstain, then the Tories lose a confidence vote by 6. (Though technically they have a "confidence and supply" agreement - so they shouldn't do that!)
Don't forget the dep speakers
Ah. Of course.
That makes it 317 who are not Tories, plus 312 Tories.
The Gvernment would lose a confidence vote by 5 if the DUP abstain, and a Gov win by 5 if the DUP honour the confidence + supply agreement.
Not all non-Tories will support a VONC.
Oh, clearly - otherwise it would all be much less interesting. But someone was asking about the raw numbers.
I'd be interested to know who else would vote with the Government, or abstain, though.
I expect Woodcock, Lewis, Hermon, and Austin would either vote with the government or abstain. Field might abstain.
Field voted with Labour in the January vote with both Woodcock and Lewis abstaining. Lady Hermon supported the Government, but her comments in the Opposition Debate this week did not sound very sympathetic to Johnson. Supporting May is likely to have had far more appeal than voting for Boris on a VNOC. Unlikely too that the ex-Labour Independents would oppose such a motion.
Yes Sugar backed Thatcher then switched to Labour under Blair and Brown and has now switched back to the Tories again
I wonder how he squares that (very good) speech he did in the HoL about politicians should not be allowed to lie to the public in the same way as CEOs are not allowed to mislead shareholders, with him now backing someone who is renowned for being extremely economical with the truth?
The alternative is likely still a minority Corbyn or Farage Government for the moment
Well if there is a chance of a Farage government, then there is equally a chance of a LibDem one, probably more so. I doubt either is very likely, even in the current febrile atmosphere. I would be quite happy with the latter . A crypto-fascist government under Farage is pretty terrifying though.
Dave Lister : [to his younger self] Will you stop saying everything's crypto-fascist! You make me sound like I was a complete git!
Oh, sorry, maybe I should have just said fascist. Sorry to wake you up to it, but this is what Farage is, and there ain't much crypto about it.
I am a trad conservative. You know the type, the ones that believe in non nationalistic patriotism, small state, strong economy, good international relations that foster trade and enable business to do well. This was before it was taken over by swivel-eyed "fuck business" nutters that want to screw the economy up and take us back to some sort of 1950s non-utopia, and claim to be REAL conservatives. I am an anti-fascist, and have been all my life. People who think Farage is anything short of this deserving description are either naïve or in denial about their own tendencies.
Honestly based on my experiences of Farage it sounds like you believe basically everything he believes except you differ on where the line between patriotism and nationalism is, in that he believes supporting democratic self-government is an intrinsic part of being a patriot, and you believe simplifying businesses' paperwork is a higher priority.
This is the 21st century - I've automated the paperwork of my business down to 30 minutes a month - a lot of companies can do the same..
Mr. OP, Farage has been proved to be a racist (Alan Sked accused him of this - no denial from Farage). His poster on immigrants. His egotistical pronouncements, his admiration for Putin, Trump. He is a bully, and falls out with everyone he works with, and is almost probably a misogynist.
No, I have nothing in common with this very unpleasant little man, but he has a lot in common with a lot of people that one could list as fascists, and they with him.
By my calculation, that's 319 who are not-Tories, not-DUP, not Sinn Fein, and not the Speaker, v. 313 Tories.
So the Tories+DUP = 323, a majority of 4 over the rest. If the DUP abstain, then the Tories lose a confidence vote by 6. (Though technically they have a "confidence and supply" agreement - so they shouldn't do that!)
Don't forget the dep speakers
Ah. Of course.
That makes it 317 who are not Tories, plus 312 Tories.
The Gvernment would lose a confidence vote by 5 if the DUP abstain, and a Gov win by 5 if the DUP honour the confidence + supply agreement.
Not all non-Tories will support a VONC.
Oh, clearly - otherwise it would all be much less interesting. But someone was asking about the raw numbers.
I'd be interested to know who else would vote with the Government, or abstain, though.
I expect Woodcock, Lewis, Hermon, and Austin would either vote with the government or abstain. Field might abstain.
Field voted with Labour in the January vote with both Woodcock and Lewis abstaining. Lady Hermon supported the Government, but her comments in the Opposition Debate this week did not sound very sympathetic to Johnson. Supporting May is likely to have had far more appeal than voting for Boris on a VNOC. Unlikely too that the ex-Labour Independents would oppose such a motion.
A VONC doesn't lead to an election - especially if the possible Government after the VONC is agreed before the vote occurs.
The cretins on The Labour Party [Facebook] Forum keep insisting we can ignore polls as WE WON PETERBOROUGH. So out of interest I have taken the Peterborough changes in that seat vs 2017, and replicated Labour's triumph across the country making those same changes vs the general election totals:
By my calculation, that's 319 who are not-Tories, not-DUP, not Sinn Fein, and not the Speaker, v. 313 Tories.
So the Tories+DUP = 323, a majority of 4 over the rest. If the DUP abstain, then the Tories lose a confidence vote by 6. (Though technically they have a "confidence and supply" agreement - so they shouldn't do that!)
Don't forget the dep speakers
Ah. Of course.
That makes it 317 who are not Tories, plus 312 Tories.
The Gvernment would lose a confidence vote by 5 if the DUP abstain, and a Gov win by 5 if the DUP honour the confidence + supply agreement.
Not all non-Tories will support a VONC.
Won't need to be a confidence vote. Boris will propose an early election motion and challenge magic grandpa to not back
Or s the party of dither
He will go to the country. 17th or 24th October.
I think that your assessment is correct.
Logically this has to be the only viable option. But how will he avoid a VoNC beforehand ?
If he loses the VONC, then the election is brought forward.
...unless somebody else can demonstrate within 14 days that they can win the confidence of the house. FTPA, remember?
Which takes us back to my “one-job Government” scenario under someone like Clarke.
The current HoC has just failed to pass a motion to set some time aside for a bill to block no deal by some means or other. The idea that this same HoC will block an election Johnson calls and put together some sort of rainbow coalition to revoke Brexit is for the birds. A sizable chunk of MPs don't want no deal, but those same MPs also really really don't want to be caught blocking our exit by the voters, and thereby end up unemployed.
Then we go back to their not bringing Johnson down and hence his not needing to call one. Unless PB’ers think than on election he’ll pop into a telephone box and emerge suddenly bold and decisive where heretofore he’s been cowardly and careful, I don’t see it.
Boris is elected on July 22nd. Convention is to hold elections on a Thursday and there must be 25 working days thanks to the FTPA between an election being called and it being held.
That means to hold one on 29th August Parliament most agree to it (434 votes minimum) by July 23rd.
So August isn't a runner
September 5th is just about possible but I would expect it to be September 12th as I'm away then...
September 5th isn't possible as Parliament wouldn't still be sitting to trigger an election on that date.
Parliament returns on the 5th, so elections in mid October onwards are the first opportunity. And what an opportunity for Bozza - "vote for me this Thursday (24th) and we leave the EU next Thursday (31st). Huzzah!"
Labour's problem is that it will be offering a referendum which according to the JC would be between his unicorn cake deal and no deal. Remain would not be on the ballot.
Which means that no remainer will switch back...
It would be utterly bonkers electorally for Labour to offer the Referendum but without Remain as an option. I cannot believe they would do that.
If they do, I completely agree with you - goodnight vienna.
Hence why I am certain they won't.
"Utterly Bonkers" - you've met Corbyn supporters then...
Fascinating watching Conservatives persuade themselves, in defiance of all logic, that Boris Johnson is a safer choice for Number 10 than Jeremy Corbyn. Both look like disastrous choices.
Indeed. It is a which way would you like to fuck up the economy question. Tory buffoon with extra debt defaulting nationalism, or Labour/Momentum buffoon with extra Venezuelan Marxism?
Not sure it's worth engaging on this, but McDonnell is more subtle than that - first-term Labour will focus on popular stuff, especially as it'll depend on other parties' support. An objective will be win to win an overall majority second time round. In the meantime, possibly the Tories will develop some policies other than Brexit.
The cretins on The Labour Party [Facebook] Forum keep insisting we can ignore polls as WE WON PETERBOROUGH. So out of interest I have taken the Peterborough changes in that seat vs 2017, and replicated Labour's triumph across the country making those same changes vs the general election totals:
Electoral Calculus gives a Brexit Party majority of 66. Clearly #jc4pm as the cancer cult wazzocks keep insisting
Under uniform swing. We wouldn't see that.
What we would see is a huge Tory vote to BXP and a minor Tory vote to LDs, and a minor Lab vote to LD, Green and BXP each. To me (and I may be wrong) this would be great for Labour in seats like Peterborough (Stoke South for instance would go back to Lab), would mean LD gains is soft Toryshire (St Albans where I am from), could see BXP gain in really blue brexity areas, and LDs gain in the SW. What I can't see is where Lab losses fall. London, maybe? LDs could take a few there if too many Lab voters split to Greens and LDs? I deffo can't see any Lab losses to Cons, and maybe a few to BXP.
To any sort of 4 way tie, even with BXP on top, equals a Lab led government that needs LDs, Greens, SNP and PC. BXP and Tories couldn't govern alone.
Not sure it's worth engaging on this, but McDonnell is more subtle than that - first-term Labour will focus on popular stuff, especially as it'll depend on other parties' support. An objective will be win to win an overall majority second time round. In the meantime, possibly the Tories will develop some policies other than Brexit.
How very New Labour... And what will they do on Brexit during the first term?
Ladbrokes have gone out with Johnson 10-1 to get under 130 votes in the second ballot. I think that is much too big unless we get another withdrawal before Tuesday. We know 50 votes need to find a new home and there will be more switchers but he's not guaranteed to get 16 of them. Sure he probably will but it's not a 90% chance IMO.
Tend to agree, especially as I believe the deadline for withdrawals before Tuesday was (for some strange reason) 1pm today. OK, someone can say "I'm not serious any more, ignore my name on the ballot paper", but that doesn't seem likely.
On these numbers, how many seats do BXP prevent Cons / Lab from winning, but don't win themselves? I imagine this will lead to many Peterboroughs: BXP doesn't win but the winner isn't really apparent before hand? I think these numbers under FPTP equal Lab as the largest party, as it's the Tories losing the largest chunks to BXP (although Lab lose more to LDs). So a Lab led gov that needs LD / G / SNP / PC support would obvs go a 2nd ref route, and then if Leave win again a Lab soft brexit, and if remain win all hell breaks loose?
I would read almost nothing into the numbers. This kind of result would be very wild.
Looks like Con and Lab wipeout in Scotland. Lab sub 10%.
Boris though gets the Tories in Scotland back to 20%, just the Brexit Party is currently running second in Scotland
Are you basing that on subsamples in hypothetical polls?
The SCon average for every Scotland only Westminster poll since the last GE is 25%, the last poll in May had them on 18% (their lowest figure).
Labour's problem is that it will be offering a referendum which according to the JC would be between his unicorn cake deal and no deal. Remain would not be on the ballot.
Which means that no remainer will switch back...
It would be utterly bonkers electorally for Labour to offer the Referendum but without Remain as an option. I cannot believe they would do that.
If they do, I completely agree with you - goodnight vienna.
Hence why I am certain they won't.
They certainly seem very effective at stringing people along, as your posts on the subject (they’re bound to..., the next announcement will..., they cannot but...) prove. I guess they are right in assuming their voter base will essentially do what they’re told. Baaa.
Fascinating watching Conservatives persuade themselves, in defiance of all logic, that Boris Johnson is a safer choice for Number 10 than Jeremy Corbyn. Both look like disastrous choices.
Indeed. It is a which way would you like to fuck up the economy question. Tory buffoon with extra debt defaulting nationalism, or Labour/Momentum buffoon with extra Venezuelan Marxism?
Not sure it's worth engaging on this, but McDonnell is more subtle than that - first-term Labour will focus on popular stuff, especially as it'll depend on other parties' support. An objective will be win to win an overall majority second time round. In the meantime, possibly the Tories will develop some policies other than Brexit.
My comment was somewhat tongue in cheek, though your comment does suggest the best Labour can hope for is a minority government. This is staggering considering how shockingly bad the government is and its disarray with respect to Brexit. When are you guys going to wake up and get a decent leader?
If he is to go he should go sooner. September, August if possible. Allow to campaign to say will get a renegotiation and pass deal or no deal. 24 October is too late, means guaranteed no deal.
I am expecting (and his supporters are backing this up) that once elected he will speak to Merkel and Macron and Barnier. Thats his August task - understand in clear unambiguous language that there is no further haggling on the withdrawal agreement. He doesn't need an election to provide him a mandate to do that.
When its clear there is nothing left to do, thats when to deliver as promised on Halloween its no deal. Whilst no deal is the legal default, parliament would likely vote to block it / send a deputation to Brussels pleading for more time etc. So Parliament returns on 5th September, Boris calls a motion for an early election and off we go.
Remember - it doesn't matter that it takes time to actually legislate for the things we'd need to have in place for no deal. That is all project fear fake news. Herr Hitler didn't give us notice to put things in place, he just invaded Poland. Bulldog spirit and all that.
If no Dissolution by 5th September , the earliest realistic day for Polling Day would be 17th October. Depends how far Corbyn would co-operate too.
Fascinating watching Conservatives persuade themselves, in defiance of all logic, that Boris Johnson is a safer choice for Number 10 than Jeremy Corbyn. Both look like disastrous choices.
Indeed. It is a which way would you like to fuck up the economy question. Tory buffoon with extra debt defaulting nationalism, or Labour/Momentum buffoon with extra Venezuelan Marxism?
Not sure it's worth engaging on this, but McDonnell is more subtle than that - first-term Labour will focus on popular stuff, especially as it'll depend on other parties' support. An objective will be win to win an overall majority second time round. In the meantime, possibly the Tories will develop some policies other than Brexit.
Christ, you’re a hypocrite are’t you. Elected with the Blair tide, went out with the Brown tide. Toe the line, vote for government policy, policy which now appears anathema. Suddenly a Corbynite true believer.
I will have a lot of thinking to do. I loathe him and have said I would resign my membership if he becomes leader. But...but...Jeremy Corbyn as PM? Unfathomable.
So what are the scenarios ? I am going to do a @kinabalu to refine my thinking while writing.
1) Calls GE wins off he goes into the sunset (sans moi but he'll live with it) 2) Calls GE loses gets booted out 3) Doesn't call GE but then, as per @Mysticrose's arithmetic, has the sword of Damocles hanging over his head for the next three years.
I am torn. all logic says that the probabilities should be:
1) 40% 2) 40% 3) 20%
But you know my view on the WA being the only option possible and BoZo doing something creative PR-wise with it in which case the odds switch to:
1) 20% 2) 20% 3) 60%
I'm glad I've cleared that up for everyone. Your welcome.
Meaning a 4 in 5 chance that as I slice the turkey this year - and as always refuse both to wear a paper hat and eat any parsnips - Boris Johnson is our PM.
Oh.
Trouble is, I think I agree. So thanks a bunch. For nothing.
Correct decision for Boris to do the BBC debate but not C4 (what I said he should do on here yesterday)
Boris is box office and no one watches Channel "Fuck The Tories" 4 on a Sunday evening... It's a waste of his time.
Like The Rolling Stones playing Brighton Pavilion.
UK bands frequently fail in the States because they refuse to tour, believing their fame to be sufficient. It's the ones who do the tours to Bumfuck, Arizona and all the gigs they can that succeed.
In this analogy it's the likes of Rory and Raab that are those bands that have got to do the circuit to get noticed.
Boris has already made it to the big time. When you reach the big time you can pick and choose. That's why you don't see The Stones playing Stoke Regent on a wet Wednesday evening.
Hasn’t May’s premiership taught us anything? Hiding and being evasive is not a good look.
In a way but May didn't do any debates. Boris has said he will do a debate on the BBC but he's not going to waste his time on small fry C4.
That's quite an important difference.
Cameron picked which debates he wanted to do in the 2015 general election and that turned out quite well for him.
Boris is elected on July 22nd. Convention is to hold elections on a Thursday and there must be 25 working days thanks to the FTPA between an election being called and it being held.
That means to hold one on 29th August Parliament most agree to it (434 votes minimum) by July 23rd.
So August isn't a runner
September 5th is just about possible but I would expect it to be September 12th as I'm away then...
September 5th isn't possible as Parliament wouldn't still be sitting to trigger an election on that date.
Parliament returns on the 5th, so elections in mid October onwards are the first opportunity. And what an opportunity for Bozza - "vote for me this Thursday (24th) and we leave the EU next Thursday (31st). Huzzah!"
Hasn't he just said he's not aiming to leave without a deal? How could he do otherwise in those circumstances?
Or is the idea that he'll be negotiating a new deal at the same time as fighting a general election campaign?
Comments
There is little in Boris’s back story that suggests he is going to be a bold, brave and decisive leader.
Primary school kids might need a six to seven week holiday from late July to early September - MPs perhaps not?
The current majority with the DUP is 5, so you can bin all use of the word 'command.' Even if, huge if, the situation remained like this can you really imagine another 3 years of Boris trying to pass legislation with that kind of slender margin? It will be a case of defeat after defeat.
More serious than that is that the arithmetic is only going one way, and that's downwards for the tories.
Brecon & Radnor recall will be announced next Thursday. Let's assume it's successful, the majority instantly falls to 4.
The LibDems will most likely win the by-election, that takes us to 3.
If it's true that Phillip Lee is about to defect to the LibDems that takes it down to 1.
Boris is very divisive, including among his own side. The chances of further defections or tories abstaining / voting directly against are extremely high.
I simply cannot see Boris trying to govern with a non-existent mandate in the House of Commons. He will have to go for it and try to take Corbyn to the cleaners. The best time to do that is straightaway during his honeymoon.
How many jobs has he been sacked from lying? How many more has he kept despite lying?
However, on balance, I think he will bottle it. Having achieved his life's ambition and made it to PM, it will be a massive move to risk it before he's hardly unpacked.
Hope he does go for it though. I am long of a 2019 GE for one thing (since I thought erroneously that May might go for it) and more importantly if he does go to the country in say Oct, the country gets the opportunity to tell HIM where to go.
If Corbyn still refuses to move , Labour pro EU voters need to think carefully if a GE election happens before Brexit . If we inadvertently give a majority to some horrible Tory BP coalition then we’re out of the EU anyway with the hardest of Brexits.
If Boris does dither (Alastair) then I think the tories are absolutely finished. Once the honeymoon wears off and the reality of defeat after defeat sets in at the House of Commons, they will be viewed like the tail end of John Major's '92-97 Gov't. The long slide to crushing defeat.
Boris will have to go to the country this autumn.
If they back Raab and he loses, they've got no currency at all with Johnson. Yes, he MIGHT stab them in the back anyway, but he'll definitely stab them in the front if they go with Raab.
And Gove, although a Brexiteer, did stay loyal to May and essentially his offering is May 2.0, now with added "belief" (for all that's worth).
The only reason for switching to Raab would be, as @SirNorfolkPassmore suggested, and as is regular feature of Conservative elections, for Boris's team to pick a weaker opponent. Trouble is, if the members in the country really are obsessed by Brexit, then Raab might not be that ideal opponent, and Boris would be safer against someone who seen as soft on the project.
If Corbyn intended for remain to be on the ballot he would say so. Instead he very grudgingly accepts the push for a vote and repeats that it can't be a rerun of 2016 as the people have already decided. That a party spokesperson later clarifies his comments and says remain would be on as well doesn't fill me with any confidence.
Corbyn hates the EU, has done for decades, isn't about to relent now.
So what are the scenarios ? I am going to do a @kinabalu to refine my thinking while writing.
1) Calls GE wins off he goes into the sunset (sans moi but he'll live with it)
2) Calls GE loses gets booted out
3) Doesn't call GE but then, as per @Mysticrose's arithmetic, has the sword of Damocles hanging over his head for the next three years.
I am torn. all logic says that the probabilities should be:
1) 40%
2) 40%
3) 20%
But you know my view on the WA being the only option possible and BoZo doing something creative PR-wise with it in which case the odds switch to:
1) 20%
2) 20%
3) 60%
I'm glad I've cleared that up for everyone. Your welcome.
Raab could actually beat Boris if he got to the membership
Con is becoming the party of the anti-Muslims and the Leavers
Lib is becoming the party of the not-bothered-about-religion and the Remainers
Brexit is becoming the party of the not-bothered-about-religion and the Leavers
How the hell we ended up with that is an interesting story, but not one I will have the time to deduce any time soon...
Boris is box office and no one watches Channel "Fuck The Tories" 4 on a Sunday evening... It's a waste of his time.
Like The Rolling Stones playing Brighton Pavilion.
How many Conservative remainers are in Tory/LD marginals? (Any?)
It would be dead on arrival in the Commons if ever proposed.
Pretty sure that In Trump world Javid's non-fitting face would be inextricably linked to any obstructionism over Assange.
https://northvolt.com/northvolt-completes-equity-capital-raise-to-enable-europes-first-homegrown-gigafactories-for-lithium-ion-batteries/
The one at 20s that I was thinking of was the famous 'David Miliband to be next Pope'. That was a while ago and IMO it remains unrivaled for value on the lay side.
I am a trad conservative. You know the type, the ones that believe in non nationalistic patriotism, small state, strong economy, good international relations that foster trade and enable business to do well. This was before it was taken over by swivel-eyed "fuck business" nutters that want to screw the economy up and take us back to some sort of 1950s non-utopia, and claim to be REAL conservatives. I am an anti-fascist, and have been all my life. People who think Farage is anything short of this deserving description are either naïve or in denial about their own tendencies.
Equally there was little point in this week's vote - other chances will come...
If they do, I completely agree with you - goodnight vienna.
Hence why I am certain they won't.
Boris has already made it to the big time. When you reach the big time you can pick and choose. That's why you don't see The Stones playing Stoke Regent on a wet Wednesday evening.
Boris is elected on July 22nd.
Convention is to hold elections on a Thursday and there must be 25 working days thanks to the FTPA between an election being called and it being held.
That means to hold one on 29th August Parliament most agree to it (434 votes minimum) by July 23rd.
So August isn't a runner
September 5th is just about possible but I would expect it to be September 12th as I'm away then...
No, I have nothing in common with this very unpleasant little man, but he has a lot in common with a lot of people that one could list as fascists, and they with him.
And might need to do so.
Con: 17% (-25%)
Lab: 23% (-17%)
LD: 16% (+9%)
BXP: 29% (+29%)
Electoral Calculus gives a Brexit Party majority of 66. Clearly #jc4pm as the cancer cult wazzocks keep insisting
Parliament returns on the 5th, so elections in mid October onwards are the first opportunity. And what an opportunity for Bozza - "vote for me this Thursday (24th) and we leave the EU next Thursday (31st). Huzzah!"
BXP: 289
Lib Dem: 141
Lab: 117
SNP: 51
Con: 28
https://flavible.com/politics/map/polls?sid=2071
What we would see is a huge Tory vote to BXP and a minor Tory vote to LDs, and a minor Lab vote to LD, Green and BXP each. To me (and I may be wrong) this would be great for Labour in seats like Peterborough (Stoke South for instance would go back to Lab), would mean LD gains is soft Toryshire (St Albans where I am from), could see BXP gain in really blue brexity areas, and LDs gain in the SW. What I can't see is where Lab losses fall. London, maybe? LDs could take a few there if too many Lab voters split to Greens and LDs? I deffo can't see any Lab losses to Cons, and maybe a few to BXP.
To any sort of 4 way tie, even with BXP on top, equals a Lab led government that needs LDs, Greens, SNP and PC. BXP and Tories couldn't govern alone.
The SCon average for every Scotland only Westminster poll since the last GE is 25%, the last poll in May had them on 18% (their lowest figure).
2% Boris it is.
When its clear there is nothing left to do, thats when to deliver as promised on Halloween its no deal. Whilst no deal is the legal default, parliament would likely vote to block it / send a deputation to Brussels pleading for more time etc. So Parliament returns on 5th September, Boris calls a motion for an early election and off we go.
Remember - it doesn't matter that it takes time to actually legislate for the things we'd need to have in place for no deal. That is all project fear fake news. Herr Hitler didn't give us notice to put things in place, he just invaded Poland. Bulldog spirit and all that.
If no Dissolution by 5th September , the earliest realistic day for Polling Day would be 17th October. Depends how far Corbyn would co-operate too.
Oh.
Trouble is, I think I agree. So thanks a bunch. For nothing.
That's quite an important difference.
Cameron picked which debates he wanted to do in the 2015 general election and that turned out quite well for him.
Or is the idea that he'll be negotiating a new deal at the same time as fighting a general election campaign?