How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
Lots of PB humble pie!
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
It was profitable in 2016 when Boris was the long term favourite.
Ditto in 2005/03 with David Davis.
Ditto in 2001 with Portillo.
Ditto in 1997 with Clarke, Hezza, and Portillo.
Ditto in 1990 with Hezza and earlier than that John Moore!
Ditto in 1975 with Willie Whitelaw.
How could anyone have laid the favourite pre 2001 (assuming Betfair had a market on it that year, which I doubt actually)?
I was talking in the abstract about those years. You shouldn’t have backed the favourite in those years.
So since 1965 when the Tories have elected their leaders the long term favourite hasn’t won yet.
Well, he may yet not win this time either I suppose.
How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
Lots of PB humble pie!
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
It was profitable in 2016 when Boris was the long term favourite.
Ditto in 2005/03 with David Davis.
Ditto in 2001 with Portillo.
Ditto in 1997 with Clarke, Hezza, and Portillo.
Ditto in 1990 with Hezza and earlier than that John Moore!
Ditto in 1975 with Willie Whitelaw.
I could be wrong, but I'd have thought that the betting markets would be a lot more efficient now than a decade or two ago, so not sure how relevant most of those examples are.
I think you have to factor in a few things.
There were fewer Tory leadership contests, so say between 2005 and 2016 there were quite a few favourites to succeed David Cameron, such as David Davis, George Osborne, Boris Johnson to name but a few.
So after a gap of eleven years between contests we’re now on our second in three years.
In the aftermath of the 2015 election, Johnson and Osborne were pretty much both evens for a few days.
I think Boris was amusing on Have I Got News For You, but apart from that I don't know what people see in him.
He's a bit of a Russell Brand figure in that he has the kind of fancy turn of phrase that is easily confused for erudition amongst people who are a bit thick.
He's also gives the impression, by having an idiosyncratic style, that he's not over-planning his remarks. Very "careful" politicians are often seen as dishonest because their answers are in some sense "unnatural". I think that's phony reasoning - it's perfectly possible to shoot from the hip and be a profoundly dishonest, and I like caution and balance in a politician - but it worked for Donald Trump, and can work for Boris Johnson.
If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.
I make no comment on the quality of the writing, just asked if there were ever any that considered Brexit might be a good thing. Apparently there have been at least eight in the last four years from @Richard_Tyndall and @Cyclefree
Additionally we have had some articles from the pollsters, with Joe Twyman and Martin Boon announcing Deltapoll on here and a couple of others who I forget...
I’ve done one or two but I find it hard work, to be honest.
Tell me about it. I'm trying to write a review of "The Bad Boys of Brexit" (TL:Dr it's much better than you think) but my time pantry is damn nearly empty...
Leadsom's backer probably doesn't see any point in putting more money on the market right now.
She hasn’t gone out that much.
Yeah, I think there's probably a lot of unmatched bets from her backer still sitting there, and I don't see why anybody would be laying her now rather than a few hours ago when she was still on 9.
My position was that Boris Johnson would be a reckless, bordering on the foolhardy, choice as Party leader, who would be a poor PM. That remains my opinion.
Indeed. His time in London is littered with the evidence. The Garden Bridge that never got designed let alone built. The hugely expensive buses whose trademark rear doors are never opened. The cable car to nowhere that gets handfuls of passengers daily and, having promised it would be privately financed, Boris had to go begging for EU funding to get built. Water cannons purchased that his own government said he couldn’t use, and sold for a pittance. The absurd island airport plan. Etc.
Source on Team Johnson reckons they will poll in the high 80s. Hunt on 70 plus. Gove between 50 and 60. Javid between 30 and 40.
Wow - not a great result for Boris if true- opens the door to a last ditch attempt to keep him out
Not a great result but it'd be more than adequate. Boris beats any of the other three in the final round and 'high 80s' is almost certainly enough to reach the final round, once votes are freed up from other Leave candidates.
Boris Johnson 114 Jeremy Hunt 43 Michael Gove 37 Dominic Raab 27 Rory Stewart 19 Sajid Javid 23 Matthew Hancock 20 Andrea Leadsom 11 Mark Harper 10 Esther McVey 9
If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.
I make no comment on the quality of the writing, just asked if there were ever any that considered Brexit might be a good thing. Apparently there have been at least eight in the last four years from @Richard_Tyndall and @Cyclefree
Perhaps that's because Brexit is actually a bad thing, and no-one can really find an opposing argument?
Perhaps! But it’s always nice to read counter arguments from the received wisdom
Source on Team Johnson reckons they will poll in the high 80s. Hunt on 70 plus. Gove between 50 and 60. Javid between 30 and 40.
Wow - not a great result for Boris if true- opens the door to a last ditch attempt to keep him out
Not a great result but it'd be more than adequate. Boris beats any of the other three in the final round and 'high 80s' is almost certainly enough to reach the final round, once votes are freed up from other Leave candidates.
HIgh 80s would need tactical voting, but the door would be open.
No idea how you get an accurate picture if Boris himself can't, though
Just looking at the pictures on BBC of all the candidates and can’t understand why they have smiling pictures of everyone except Raab who looks like a serial killer. A quick google shows plenty of photos of Raab leering happily.
If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.
I make no comment on the quality of the writing, just asked if there were ever any that considered Brexit might be a good thing. Apparently there have been at least eight in the last four years from @Richard_Tyndall and @Cyclefree
Additionally we have had some articles from the pollsters, with Joe Twyman and Martin Boon announcing Deltapoll on here and a couple of others who I forget...
You are the unnamed political betting contributor in my 2017 opinion poll diatribe
Boris Johnson 114 Jeremy Hunt 43 Michael Gove 37 Dominic Raab 27 Rory Stewart 19 Sajid Javid 23 Matthew Hancock 20 Andrea Leadsom 11 Mark Harper 10 Esther McVey 9
Given Theresa May has virtually bankrupted the party I'd not be surprised...
.. and the country with her zero-carbon-by-2050 idea.
What a stupid comment.
Why is that a stupid comment? Plausible estimates suggest a cost in the order of trillions. As with so much of this climate stuff, the cure currently proposed will do far more damage than the disease.
If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.
I make no comment on the quality of the writing, just asked if there were ever any that considered Brexit might be a good thing. Apparently there have been at least eight in the last four years from @Richard_Tyndall and @Cyclefree
Additionally we have had some articles from the pollsters, with Joe Twyman and Martin Boon announcing Deltapoll on here and a couple of others who I forget...
You are the unnamed political betting contributor in my 2017 opinion poll diatribe
Given Theresa May has virtually bankrupted the party I'd not be surprised...
.. and the country with her zero-carbon-by-2050 idea.
What a stupid comment.
Why is that a stupid comment? Plausible estimates suggest a cost in the order of trillions. As with so much of this climate stuff, the cure currently proposed will do far more damage than the disease.
Boris - Excellent result Hunt - Poor Gove - Better than expected Raab - Poor Sajid - Disappointing Hancock - Disappointing Rory - Good The Rest - Over and out
Comments
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125574963
I expected that.
He's also gives the impression, by having an idiosyncratic style, that he's not over-planning his remarks. Very "careful" politicians are often seen as dishonest because their answers are in some sense "unnatural". I think that's phony reasoning - it's perfectly possible to shoot from the hip and be a profoundly dishonest, and I like caution and balance in a politician - but it worked for Donald Trump, and can work for Boris Johnson.
My wife often wonders about the lack of secrecy of the ballot. Really not good instinct from Johnson's team.
Just got a ‘promoted’ tweet from Twitter on her. Err.. after polling had closed.
Wow - not a great result for Boris if true- opens the door to a last ditch attempt to keep him out
No penis drawings, then?
I would worry whether Francois can spell ‘X’
Could well be expectation management though
https://twitter.com/joeheenan/status/1139091544928071680
Boris Johnson 114
Jeremy Hunt 43
Michael Gove 37
Dominic Raab 27
Rory Stewart 19
Sajid Javid 23
Matthew Hancock 20
Andrea Leadsom 11
Mark Harper 10
Esther McVey 9
No idea how you get an accurate picture if Boris himself can't, though
Gove 37
Hancock 20
Harper 10
Hunt 43
Javid 23
Johnson 114
Leadsom 11
McVey 9
Raab 27
Stewart 19
I know he's not going to win but I want him to ruffle the feathers.
Why not just set the bar in the first round at 113?
Hunt 43
Gove 37
Raab 27
Javid 23
Hancock 20
Stewart 19
Leadsom 11
Harper 10
McVey 9
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/?m=1
Top 5 Boris, Hunt, Gove, Raab and Javid.
McVey, Harper and Leadsom eliminated
Boris - Excellent result
Hunt - Poor
Gove - Better than expected
Raab - Poor
Sajid - Disappointing
Hancock - Disappointing
Rory - Good
The Rest - Over and out