politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So which ones will survive the first vote?
Comments
-
118 is my prediction for the Great Charlatan.0
-
Gove is coming in and Leadsom is going out.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1255749630 -
Well, he may yet not win this time either I suppose.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was talking in the abstract about those years. You shouldn’t have backed the favourite in those years.isam said:
How could anyone have laid the favourite pre 2001 (assuming Betfair had a market on it that year, which I doubt actually)?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was profitable in 2016 when Boris was the long term favourite.Stereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
Ditto in 2005/03 with David Davis.
Ditto in 2001 with Portillo.
Ditto in 1997 with Clarke, Hezza, and Portillo.
Ditto in 1990 with Hezza and earlier than that John Moore!
Ditto in 1975 with Willie Whitelaw.
So since 1965 when the Tories have elected their leaders the long term favourite hasn’t won yet.0 -
-
Rory won't become Tory leader. Could he become leader of the splinter One Nation party once Boris repels the wets/cowards/sane?0
-
Leadsom's backer probably doesn't see any point in putting more money on the market right now.AndyJS said:Gove is coming in and Leadsom is going out.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1255749630 -
In the aftermath of the 2015 election, Johnson and Osborne were pretty much both evens for a few days.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think you have to factor in a few things.Stereotomy said:
I could be wrong, but I'd have thought that the betting markets would be a lot more efficient now than a decade or two ago, so not sure how relevant most of those examples are.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was profitable in 2016 when Boris was the long term favourite.Stereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
Ditto in 2005/03 with David Davis.
Ditto in 2001 with Portillo.
Ditto in 1997 with Clarke, Hezza, and Portillo.
Ditto in 1990 with Hezza and earlier than that John Moore!
Ditto in 1975 with Willie Whitelaw.
There were fewer Tory leadership contests, so say between 2005 and 2016 there were quite a few favourites to succeed David Cameron, such as David Davis, George Osborne, Boris Johnson to name but a few.
So after a gap of eleven years between contests we’re now on our second in three years.0 -
I said the other day a few Tory MPs who were Boris inclined would vote the other way as they realised if Boris won he’d give Gav a senior cabinet job.Casino_Royale said:0 -
He's a bit of a Russell Brand figure in that he has the kind of fancy turn of phrase that is easily confused for erudition amongst people who are a bit thick.AndyJS said:I think Boris was amusing on Have I Got News For You, but apart from that I don't know what people see in him.
He's also gives the impression, by having an idiosyncratic style, that he's not over-planning his remarks. Very "careful" politicians are often seen as dishonest because their answers are in some sense "unnatural". I think that's phony reasoning - it's perfectly possible to shoot from the hip and be a profoundly dishonest, and I like caution and balance in a politician - but it worked for Donald Trump, and can work for Boris Johnson.0 -
Wow. Johnson asking for proof of votes.
My wife often wonders about the lack of secrecy of the ballot. Really not good instinct from Johnson's team.0 -
The Saj has almost overtaken Gove.AndyJS said:Gove is coming in and Leadsom is going out.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1255749630 -
She hasn’t gone out that much.Stereotomy said:
Leadsom's backer probably doesn't see any point in putting more money on the market right now.AndyJS said:Gove is coming in and Leadsom is going out.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1255749630 -
Tell me about it. I'm trying to write a review of "The Bad Boys of Brexit" (TL:Dr it's much better than you think) but my time pantry is damn nearly empty...Casino_Royale said:
I’ve done one or two but I find it hard work, to be honest.viewcode said:
I know. I just wanted to big-up @corporeal ...:)isam said:
I make no comment on the quality of the writing, just asked if there were ever any that considered Brexit might be a good thing. Apparently there have been at least eight in the last four years from @Richard_Tyndall and @Cyclefreeviewcode said:FPT
If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.
The siterunners @rcs1000 , @TheScreamingEagles and - of course - @MikeSmithson are also good.
Before I forget, has @Tissue_Price or @AndreaParma_82 or @AndyJS or @Casino_Royale or @Black_Rook or - come to think of it - you written articles? I like it when the analysts and gamblers come out to play.
Additionally we have had some articles from the pollsters, with Joe Twyman and Martin Boon announcing Deltapoll on here and a couple of others who I forget...
0 -
Yeah, I think there's probably a lot of unmatched bets from her backer still sitting there, and I don't see why anybody would be laying her now rather than a few hours ago when she was still on 9.Casino_Royale said:
She hasn’t gone out that much.Stereotomy said:
Leadsom's backer probably doesn't see any point in putting more money on the market right now.AndyJS said:Gove is coming in and Leadsom is going out.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1255749630 -
My view is the secret ballot act needs amending.OblitusSumMe said:Wow. Johnson asking for proof of votes.
My wife often wonders about the lack of secrecy of the ballot. Really not good instinct from Johnson's team.0 -
How long to count 313 ballot papers with one mark on each?0
-
BBC - Ah up .... Live feed from the committee room. 1922 officers not present yet.0
-
Indeed. His time in London is littered with the evidence. The Garden Bridge that never got designed let alone built. The hugely expensive buses whose trademark rear doors are never opened. The cable car to nowhere that gets handfuls of passengers daily and, having promised it would be privately financed, Boris had to go begging for EU funding to get built. Water cannons purchased that his own government said he couldn’t use, and sold for a pittance. The absurd island airport plan. Etc.dixiedean said:My position was that Boris Johnson would be a reckless, bordering on the foolhardy, choice as Party leader, who would be a poor PM.
That remains my opinion.0 -
Takes time for the handwriting specialists to identify who has voted for whom.OnlyLivingBoy said:If the Conservatives take an hour to count about 300 pieces of paper it says a lot about how we got into this disaster.
0 -
Leadsom has some money behind her.
Just got a ‘promoted’ tweet from Twitter on her. Err.. after polling had closed.0 -
I hope there isn't a power cut for the next few minutes.0
-
Who has a link to the live feed?0
-
Source on Team Johnson reckons they will poll in the high 80s. Hunt on 70 plus. Gove between 50 and 60. Javid between 30 and 40.
Wow - not a great result for Boris if true- opens the door to a last ditch attempt to keep him out0 -
If true, as I was saying....TheWhiteRabbit said:Source on Team Johnson reckons they will poll in the high 80s. Hunt on 70 plus. Gove between 50 and 60. Javid between 30 and 40.
Wow - not a great result for Boris if true- opens the door to a last ditch attempt to keep him out0 -
The BBC.Casino_Royale said:Who has a link to the live feed?
0 -
Running late .... are the tellers determining whether a penis on the ballot a valid vote or just a cock up by Boris0
-
Recount?0
-
Yeah, 80s would be disappointing for him. Underperforming a bit and coming high 70s would be a disaster (though not necessarily a fatal one).TheWhiteRabbit said:Source on Team Johnson reckons they will poll in the high 80s. Hunt on 70 plus. Gove between 50 and 60. Javid between 30 and 40.
Wow - not a great result for Boris if true- opens the door to a last ditch attempt to keep him out
Could well be expectation management though0 -
I agree - that's the sort of momentum David Davis had from the first ballot back in 2005.TheWhiteRabbit said:Source on Team Johnson reckons they will poll in the high 80s. Hunt on 70 plus. Gove between 50 and 60. Javid between 30 and 40.
Wow - not a great result for Boris if true- opens the door to a last ditch attempt to keep him out
0 -
I think all MPs should have to produce a passport and a utility bill before being allowed to vote...Casino_Royale said:
My view is the secret ballot act needs amending.OblitusSumMe said:Wow. Johnson asking for proof of votes.
My wife often wonders about the lack of secrecy of the ballot. Really not good instinct from Johnson's team.0 -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-48579887Casino_Royale said:Who has a link to the live feed?
0 -
£4.2 million traded on Betfair.0
-
-
Not a great result but it'd be more than adequate. Boris beats any of the other three in the final round and 'high 80s' is almost certainly enough to reach the final round, once votes are freed up from other Leave candidates.TheWhiteRabbit said:Source on Team Johnson reckons they will poll in the high 80s. Hunt on 70 plus. Gove between 50 and 60. Javid between 30 and 40.
Wow - not a great result for Boris if true- opens the door to a last ditch attempt to keep him out0 -
Boris 1140
-
Boris 1140
-
Result:
Boris Johnson 114
Jeremy Hunt 43
Michael Gove 37
Dominic Raab 27
Rory Stewart 19
Sajid Javid 23
Matthew Hancock 20
Andrea Leadsom 11
Mark Harper 10
Esther McVey 90 -
Perhaps! But it’s always nice to read counter arguments from the received wisdomJosiasJessop said:
Perhaps that's because Brexit is actually a bad thing, and no-one can really find an opposing argument?isam said:
I make no comment on the quality of the writing, just asked if there were ever any that considered Brexit might be a good thing. Apparently there have been at least eight in the last four years from @Richard_Tyndall and @Cyclefreeviewcode said:FPT
If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.
The siterunners @rcs1000 , @TheScreamingEagles and - of course - @MikeSmithson are also good.
0 -
HIgh 80s would need tactical voting, but the door would be open.david_herdson said:
Not a great result but it'd be more than adequate. Boris beats any of the other three in the final round and 'high 80s' is almost certainly enough to reach the final round, once votes are freed up from other Leave candidates.TheWhiteRabbit said:Source on Team Johnson reckons they will poll in the high 80s. Hunt on 70 plus. Gove between 50 and 60. Javid between 30 and 40.
Wow - not a great result for Boris if true- opens the door to a last ditch attempt to keep him out
No idea how you get an accurate picture if Boris himself can't, though0 -
-
oof0
-
Tory leadership 1st round result 313 voted
Gove 37
Hancock 20
Harper 10
Hunt 43
Javid 23
Johnson 114
Leadsom 11
McVey 9
Raab 27
Stewart 19
0 -
Go Rory!
I know he's not going to win but I want him to ruffle the feathers.0 -
Prediction fail on Leadsom!0
-
Wow.0
-
Just looking at the pictures on BBC of all the candidates and can’t understand why they have smiling pictures of everyone except Raab who looks like a serial killer. A quick google shows plenty of photos of Raab leering happily.0
-
Leadsom goes out to 1000 on Betfair0
-
Far too liberal. They should be obliged to produce a DNA sample to prove that they are human.NickPalmer said:
I think all MPs should have to produce a passport and a utility bill before being allowed to vote...Casino_Royale said:
My view is the secret ballot act needs amending.OblitusSumMe said:Wow. Johnson asking for proof of votes.
My wife often wonders about the lack of secrecy of the ballot. Really not good instinct from Johnson's team.0 -
Thought they were supposed to be whittling the total down. 7 in the next round is way too many.
Why not just set the bar in the first round at 113?0 -
Cha-ching.0
-
Even bigger win for Boris than predicted0
-
Boris is home and dry0
-
How was my prediction? (Innocent face).0
-
Harper, Leadsom, McVey eliminated0
-
Ooohhh... Andrea Leadsom.0
-
Johnson 114
Hunt 43
Gove 37
Raab 27
Javid 23
Hancock 20
Stewart 19
Leadsom 11
Harper 10
McVey 9
0 -
You are the unnamed political betting contributor in my 2017 opinion poll diatribeviewcode said:
I know. I just wanted to big-up @corporeal ...:)isam said:
I make no comment on the quality of the writing, just asked if there were ever any that considered Brexit might be a good thing. Apparently there have been at least eight in the last four years from @Richard_Tyndall and @Cyclefreeviewcode said:FPT
If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.
The siterunners @rcs1000 , @TheScreamingEagles and - of course - @MikeSmithson are also good.
Before I forget, has @Tissue_Price or @AndreaParma_82 or @AndyJS or @Casino_Royale or @Black_Rook or - come to think of it - you written articles? I like it when the analysts and gamblers come out to play.
Additionally we have had some articles from the pollsters, with Joe Twyman and Martin Boon announcing Deltapoll on here and a couple of others who I forget...
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/?m=10 -
That number for Boris makes much more sense than high 80s.0
-
Strong result from Johnson. Glad to see that Stewart made the threshold.0
-
Leadsom already at 600!0
-
ROAREEEEEEE0
-
Go Rory! Does this mean he will be in TV debate?OblitusSumMe said:Strong result from Johnson. Glad to see that Stewart made the threshold.
0 -
Goodnight ladies...AndyJS said:Result:
Boris Johnson 114
Jeremy Hunt 43
Michael Gove 37
Dominic Raab 27
Rory Stewart 19
Sajid Javid 23
Matthew Hancock 20
Andrea Leadsom 11
Mark Harper 10
Esther McVey 90 -
PM Bonking Boris it is.0
-
I guess it's now Boris Johnson and the six dwarves.0
-
Congratulations on your profit of (thinks for a minute) £260-odd quid?Casino_Royale said:Cha-ching.
0 -
Why is that a stupid comment? Plausible estimates suggest a cost in the order of trillions. As with so much of this climate stuff, the cure currently proposed will do far more damage than the disease.logical_song said:0 -
Boris should be PM tonight.0
-
All of them got more votes than their public endorsements.0
-
-
Fame at last...isam said:
You are the unnamed political betting contributor in my 2017 opinion poll diatribeviewcode said:
I know. I just wanted to big-up @corporeal ...:)isam said:
I make no comment on the quality of the writing, just asked if there were ever any that considered Brexit might be a good thing. Apparently there have been at least eight in the last four years from @Richard_Tyndall and @Cyclefreeviewcode said:FPT
If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.
The siterunners @rcs1000 , @TheScreamingEagles and - of course - @MikeSmithson are also good.
Before I forget, has @Tissue_Price or @AndreaParma_82 or @AndyJS or @Casino_Royale or @Black_Rook or - come to think of it - you written articles? I like it when the analysts and gamblers come out to play.
Additionally we have had some articles from the pollsters, with Joe Twyman and Martin Boon announcing Deltapoll on here and a couple of others who I forget...
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/?m=1
0 -
Why hasn't Leadsom gone to 1000 yet?0
-
Andrea Leadsom is now 700 / 990 on Betfair.0
-
Because she's a mother.Stereotomy said:Why hasn't Leadsom gone to 1000 yet?
0 -
..-1
-
I guess her backer hasn't turned off their bot yetGallowgate said:
Because she's a mother.Stereotomy said:Why hasn't Leadsom gone to 1000 yet?
1 -
Not tonight but I doubt this will go to the memberstlg86 said:Boris should be PM tonight.
0 -
People are desperate to release cash.Stereotomy said:Why hasn't Leadsom gone to 1000 yet?
0 -
Looking forward to your prediction for the next round.AndyJS said:How was my prediction? (Innocent face).
0 -
Is the Johnson singularity now big enough to deepen into a black hole sucking in all rivals? Do we have to have an actual election?0
-
Please do some reading about the science.theProle said:
Why is that a stupid comment? Plausible estimates suggest a cost in the order of trillions. As with so much of this climate stuff, the cure currently proposed will do far more damage than the disease.logical_song said:0 -
-
O/T - I note the difference in reaction by the BBC to Danny Baker incident in comparison to Jo Brand.1
-
Thinking of Sir Graham at this tough time.1
-
Thoughts :
Boris - Excellent result
Hunt - Poor
Gove - Better than expected
Raab - Poor
Sajid - Disappointing
Hancock - Disappointing
Rory - Good
The Rest - Over and out0 -
Yes he is still in the race - only by 2 votes though - so is eligible for the debates prior to the next ballot.rottenborough said:
Go Rory! Does this mean he will be in TV debate?OblitusSumMe said:Strong result from Johnson. Glad to see that Stewart made the threshold.
0 -
Theresa May got over 50% in the first round in 2016.RochdalePioneers said:Is the Johnson singularity now big enough to deepen into a black hole sucking in all rivals? Do we have to have an actual election?
0 -
Raab will fancy his chances of picking up most of the McVey and Leadsom votes.1
-
Depends how #2 wants to play it. Coronation with guaranteed cabinet position, or make BJ face the members at the hustings.RochdalePioneers said:Is the Johnson singularity now big enough to deepen into a black hole sucking in all rivals? Do we have to have an actual election?
0 -
You can't deny the membership yet againtlg86 said:Boris should be PM tonight.
1 -
Not going to the members will increase the likelihood that members and voters appalled by the prospect of Boris will walk away0
-
So we now know that there at least 114 Tory MPs who are bloody idiots.0
-
The theory that some people would endorse a candidate and vote for someone else didn't happen this time. They all added votes.0
