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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So which ones will survive the first vote?
CON MP voting in the first round of the leadership contest ended at noon and the result is expected by 1pm. Contenders need to have secured 17 or more votes to get into the next round.
Comments
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Who's first out ?2
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Any odds on the number of votes cast for Boris in a secret ballot being fewer than the number of MPs who said publicly they voted for him?0
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My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.
Boris Johnson 103
Jeremy Hunt 45
Michael Gove 42
Dominic Raab 30
Rory Stewart 22
Sajid Javid 21
Matthew Hancock 19
Andrea Leadsom 12
Mark Harper 10
Esther McVey 90 -
“How can I live among this gentle obsolescent breed of Tories and not weep? Unicorns, almost, for they are fading into two legends in which their Remainery and Leavery are celebrated. Each, Europhile and Brexiteer, will be an immortal."0
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0
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I know Dave and DD had to pay in 2005 but it wasn’t that much.tlg86 said:
This would fit in with the speculation that CCHQ doesn’t have a pot to piss in.0 -
I'll be first up to eat humble pie. My defence is that Boris Johnson is an absolutely terrible choice and I didn't think the Conservatives could be so stupid. But apparently they are.isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
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Can’t be surely? That’s a year’s gross salary for the PM.tlg86 said:
(Although the two front runners are probably the only two who could actually write a cheque for that much).0 -
Esther to come last, eh? Perfect!AndyJS said:My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.
Boris Johnson 103
Jeremy Hunt 45
Michael Gove 42
Dominic Raab 30
Rory Stewart 22
Sajid Javid 21
Matthew Hancock 19
Andrea Leadsom 12
Mark Harper 10
Esther McVey 90 -
This is going to be a Boris coronation isn't it....tlg86 said:0 -
I’m very grateful to HYUFD that he gave me 50/1 on Hunt beating Boris when Hunt was circa 12/1 to win the race.isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
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Like your figures, although I would be happier if Raab was out now, as he is a clear and present danger to democracy in this country. And also totally out of his depth generally.AndyJS said:My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.
Boris Johnson 103
Jeremy Hunt 45
Michael Gove 42
Dominic Raab 30
Rory Stewart 22
Sajid Javid 21
Matthew Hancock 19
Andrea Leadsom 12
Mark Harper 10
Esther McVey 90 -
Surely fairer to ask all candadates to contribute before the first round... Let's be honest, most are just entering to get a job in Boris's cabinet.TheScreamingEagles said:
I know Dave and DD had to pay in 2005 but it wasn’t that much.tlg86 said:
This would fit in with the speculation that CCHQ doesn’t have a pot to piss in.
Edit: Still, fairness and the Tories - not natural bedfellows.0 -
Potentially interesting thread (though clearly one unusual phrase isn't plagiarism):
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/11391298888400445450 -
My guess:
Boris Johnson 103
Jeremy Hunt 50
Michael Gove 42
Sajid Javid 32
Dominic Raab 27
Rory Stewart 18
Andrea Leadsom 14
Matthew Hancock 11
Mark Harper 8
Esther McVey 8
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+1 - he's an awful candidate and I'm underwater but I still can't see him winning - something is going to happen that blows his campaign up...AlastairMeeks said:
I'll be first up to eat humble pie. My defence is that Boris Johnson is an absolutely terrible choice and I didn't think the Conservatives could be so stupid. But apparently they are.isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
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If Rory gets through (highly unlikely, I know), he should go walkabout instead.tlg86 said:0 -
This all has an air of utter pointlessness to it. Just get Boris in and send him off to kick that EU backside!0
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An insufficiently examined question: why did Johnson pull out (fnaar) in 2016? If the Gove cocaine revelation had been about Johnson that would be an entirely satisfactory explanation. Is Gove playing a long game with an anti Johnson story, or does he have an anti Johnson story which now looks worthless because it would now look like a tit for tat after Johnson got his retaliation in first?0
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You can insure yourself against the cost of getting to the final round by dumping a load of money on yourself on betfair at 9/1tlg86 said:1 -
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).0 -
... before caving in and accepting the deal the EU have already offered.Stark_Dawning said:This all has an air of utter pointlessness to it. Just get Boris in and send him off to kick that EU backside!
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AlastairMeeks said:
I'll be first up to eat humble pie. My defence is that Boris Johnson is an absolutely terrible choice and I didn't think the Conservatives could be so stupid. But apparently they are.isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
The first and last it seems AlTheScreamingEagles said:
I’m very grateful to HYUFD that he gave me 50/1 on Hunt beating Boris when Hunt was circa 12/1 to win the race.isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
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Disagree. Not with your views of Raab, but it’s important that he is soundly and publicly beaten. Otherwise he will linger around like “DSR” Foxrottenborough said:
Like your figures, although I would be happier if Raab was out now, as he is a clear and present danger to democracy in this country. And also totally out of his depth generally.AndyJS said:My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.
Boris Johnson 103
Jeremy Hunt 45
Michael Gove 42
Dominic Raab 30
Rory Stewart 22
Sajid Javid 21
Matthew Hancock 19
Andrea Leadsom 12
Mark Harper 10
Esther McVey 90 -
FPT
Bit of a silly analogy though as the reason Raab isn't going to do any good isn't because Con is turning away from the Right (far from it) but because Boris is saying everything Raab is saying but he also has charisma and is a proven election winner.TheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris wasn't standing Raab would would win this IMO.0 -
Tracey Crouch wins!1
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More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?0 -
I don't get how you enforce this. What if they say no? You can't exactly withdraw the whip or threaten deselection!tlg86 said:0 -
A pretty nifty way of getting second place to withdraw, so no members vote...tlg86 said:0 -
If Leadsom doesn't make it through this round there's probably going to be a lot of money sloshing around the exchange as everyone can finally cash in their lays.0
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Laying Jacob Rees-Mogg was a goldmine.Stereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?0 -
It will coming from your donors not your pocket and would be a contribution to party fundsBenpointer said:0 -
I have long since thought that that is Boris plan. Get the EU to make the odd change to the PD, submit it to the HOC, and it passes fairly easily and he winsBenpointer said:
... before caving in and accepting the deal the EU have already offered.Stark_Dawning said:This all has an air of utter pointlessness to it. Just get Boris in and send him off to kick that EU backside!
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Worth clarifying that the accusation of plagiarism is against Boris, from whom Marina Hyde is quoting.Tissue_Price said:Potentially interesting thread (though clearly one unusual phrase isn't plagiarism):
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1139129888840044545
At what stage does a phrase like that become an idiom as opposed to a quote you should cite?0 -
No need to go all Jo Brand on him...Charles said:
Disagree. Not with your views of Raab, but it’s important that he is soundly and publicly beaten...rottenborough said:
Like your figures, although I would be happier if Raab was out now, as he is a clear and present danger to democracy in this country. And also totally out of his depth generally.AndyJS said:My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.
Boris Johnson 103
Jeremy Hunt 45
Michael Gove 42
Dominic Raab 30
Rory Stewart 22
Sajid Javid 21
Matthew Hancock 19
Andrea Leadsom 12
Mark Harper 10
Esther McVey 90 -
So is a June exit date for Theresa May back on if the millionaire Jeremy Hunt can't find £150,000 down the back of the sofa?Benpointer said:0 -
It was profitable in 2016 when Boris was the long term favourite.Stereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
Ditto in 2005/03 with David Davis.
Ditto in 2001 with Portillo.
Ditto in 1997 with Clarke, Hezza, and Portillo.
Ditto in 1990 with Hezza and earlier than that John Moore!
Ditto in 1975 with Willie Whitelaw.0 -
Picking up pennies from in front of a steamrollerStereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
Works really well
Until it doesn’t0 -
I’ll be second. I thought he was soiled goods, and with good reason.AlastairMeeks said:
I'll be first up to eat humble pie. My defence is that Boris Johnson is an absolutely terrible choice and I didn't think the Conservatives could be so stupid. But apparently they are.isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
The only thing I will say in my defence is that when the facts changed I quickly changed my betting position.0 -
Maybe not plagiarism in the legalistic sense, but certainly "wrongful appropriation", conscious or unconscious. I'd expect nothing less from Boris.Tissue_Price said:Potentially interesting thread (though clearly one unusual phrase isn't plagiarism):
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/11391298888400445450 -
I drunkenly backed Lidington in the wrong market, and had £36 at 1000 on Michael Portillo, so didn’t exactly cover myself in glory either to be fair. Boris is the best result (-£23!)Stereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?0 -
He’d probably enjoy it anywayNigelb said:
No need to go all Jo Brand on him...Charles said:
Disagree. Not with your views of Raab, but it’s important that he is soundly and publicly beaten...rottenborough said:
Like your figures, although I would be happier if Raab was out now, as he is a clear and present danger to democracy in this country. And also totally out of his depth generally.AndyJS said:My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.
Boris Johnson 103
Jeremy Hunt 45
Michael Gove 42
Dominic Raab 30
Rory Stewart 22
Sajid Javid 21
Matthew Hancock 19
Andrea Leadsom 12
Mark Harper 10
Esther McVey 90 -
I could be wrong, but I'd have thought that the betting markets would be a lot more efficient now than a decade or two ago, so not sure how relevant most of those examples are.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was profitable in 2016 when Boris was the long term favourite.Stereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
Ditto in 2005/03 with David Davis.
Ditto in 2001 with Portillo.
Ditto in 1997 with Clarke, Hezza, and Portillo.
Ditto in 1990 with Hezza and earlier than that John Moore!
Ditto in 1975 with Willie Whitelaw.0 -
FPT
If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.
The siterunners @rcs1000 , @TheScreamingEagles and - of course - @MikeSmithson are also good.2 -
And what odds were the favourites on for those examples? I think the problem with the strategy in this case is that they were often on <30%Stereotomy said:
I could be wrong, but I'd have thought that the betting markets would be a lot more efficient now than a decade or two ago, so not sure how relevant most of those examples are.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was profitable in 2016 when Boris was the long term favourite.Stereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
Ditto in 2005/03 with David Davis.
Ditto in 2001 with Portillo.
Ditto in 1997 with Clarke, Hezza, and Portillo.
Ditto in 1990 with Hezza and earlier than that John Moore!
Ditto in 1975 with Willie Whitelaw.0 -
Scorcese didn't acknowledge Mean Streets...Theuniondivvie said:
Maybe not plagiarism in the legalistic sense, but certainly "wrongful appropriation", conscious or unconscious. I'd expect nothing less from Boris.Tissue_Price said:Potentially interesting thread (though clearly one unusual phrase isn't plagiarism):
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1139129888840044545
It ought to be a criminal offence to shoehorn someone else's good writing into your execrable bilge, though.0 -
How could anyone have laid the favourite pre 2001 (assuming Betfair had a market on it that year, which I doubt actually)?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was profitable in 2016 when Boris was the long term favourite.Stereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
Ditto in 2005/03 with David Davis.
Ditto in 2001 with Portillo.
Ditto in 1997 with Clarke, Hezza, and Portillo.
Ditto in 1990 with Hezza and earlier than that John Moore!
Ditto in 1975 with Willie Whitelaw.0 -
I think Boris was amusing on Have I Got News For You, but apart from that I don't know what people see in him.0
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Even if you're 200+ up against 100 for Johnson, you're still losing the member vote.Benpointer said:0 -
You can also bet large sums on a candidate to keep their odds artificially short, as the Leadsome Whale is demonstrating...edmundintokyo said:
You can insure yourself against the cost of getting to the final round by dumping a load of money on yourself on betfair at 9/1tlg86 said:
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I'm less confident about the numbers of votes for those at the bottom of the pile than those at the top. Leadsom could get 17.0
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But wasn't he a grammar school kid ?Charles said:
He’d probably enjoy it anywayNigelb said:
No need to go all Jo Brand on him...Charles said:
Disagree. Not with your views of Raab, but it’s important that he is soundly and publicly beaten...rottenborough said:
Like your figures, although I would be happier if Raab was out now, as he is a clear and present danger to democracy in this country. And also totally out of his depth generally.AndyJS said:My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.
Boris Johnson 103
Jeremy Hunt 45
Michael Gove 42
Dominic Raab 30
Rory Stewart 22
Sajid Javid 21
Matthew Hancock 19
Andrea Leadsom 12
Mark Harper 10
Esther McVey 90 -
AmenCharles said:
Picking up pennies from in front of a steamrollerStereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
Works really well
Until it doesn’t0 -
I make no comment on the quality of the writing, just asked if there were ever any that considered Brexit might be a good thing. Apparently there have been at least eight in the last four years from @Richard_Tyndall and @Cyclefreeviewcode said:FPT
If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.
The siterunners @rcs1000 , @TheScreamingEagles and - of course - @MikeSmithson are also good.0 -
He's a clown, and can wield a good turn of phrase. I quite like him.AndyJS said:I think Boris was amusing on Have I Got News For You, but apart from that I don't know what people see in him.
However those positive qualities are also rather shallow, and he has a host of other characteristics that make him wholly unsuitable for high office.0 -
I don't really see the problem with this. Campaigns for each of the candidates are quite well funded by supporters and pay for stuff like direct mail. Organising hustings etc is a substantial expense for CCHQ and the hustings are put on to help candidates convey their messages. Nobody making the top two would have any problem at all stumping up.JosiasJessop said:
It does say something about the state of CCHQ funding, however.0 -
It is a shame Sunderland has only Labour MPs. It would not take them an hour to count a mere 300 votes.0
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Perhaps that's because Brexit is actually a bad thing, and no-one can really find an opposing argument?isam said:
I make no comment on the quality of the writing, just asked if there were ever any that considered Brexit might be a good thing. Apparently there have been at least eight in the last four years from @Richard_Tyndall and @Cyclefreeviewcode said:FPT
If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.
The siterunners @rcs1000 , @TheScreamingEagles and - of course - @MikeSmithson are also good.
1 -
The only fly in the ointment will be Nigel. If he can successfully label Boris's 'renegotiation' as a hollow sell-out then that should be the Tories finished. However, the media probably won't give Nigel much of a platform to make his complaints, such will be their euphoria over Boris. In that situation Boris should be safe.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have long since thought that that is Boris plan. Get the EU to make the odd change to the PD, submit it to the HOC, and it passes fairly easily and he winsBenpointer said:
... before caving in and accepting the deal the EU have already offered.Stark_Dawning said:This all has an air of utter pointlessness to it. Just get Boris in and send him off to kick that EU backside!
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Good point about @corporeal and Smithson Jnr.viewcode said:FPT
If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.
The siterunners @rcs1000 , @TheScreamingEagles and - of course - @MikeSmithson are also good.
I didn't intentionally omit them in my earlier comment - just didn't scroll back far enough to turn up their articles.0 -
I think you have to factor in a few things.Stereotomy said:
I could be wrong, but I'd have thought that the betting markets would be a lot more efficient now than a decade or two ago, so not sure how relevant most of those examples are.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was profitable in 2016 when Boris was the long term favourite.Stereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
Ditto in 2005/03 with David Davis.
Ditto in 2001 with Portillo.
Ditto in 1997 with Clarke, Hezza, and Portillo.
Ditto in 1990 with Hezza and earlier than that John Moore!
Ditto in 1975 with Willie Whitelaw.
There were fewer Tory leadership contests, so say between 2005 and 2016 there were quite a few favourites to succeed David Cameron, such as David Davis, George Osborne, Boris Johnson to name but a few.
So after a gap of eleven years between contests we’re now on our second in three years.0 -
Wannabes are the worst 😊Nigelb said:
But wasn't he a grammar school kid ?Charles said:
He’d probably enjoy it anywayNigelb said:
No need to go all Jo Brand on him...Charles said:
Disagree. Not with your views of Raab, but it’s important that he is soundly and publicly beaten...rottenborough said:
Like your figures, although I would be happier if Raab was out now, as he is a clear and present danger to democracy in this country. And also totally out of his depth generally.AndyJS said:My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.
Boris Johnson 103
Jeremy Hunt 45
Michael Gove 42
Dominic Raab 30
Rory Stewart 22
Sajid Javid 21
Matthew Hancock 19
Andrea Leadsom 12
Mark Harper 10
Esther McVey 90 -
Ruth Davidson was a highly profitable lay briefly as well.AlastairMeeks said:
Laying Jacob Rees-Mogg was a goldmine.Stereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?0 -
Yes - but it's worse than that - the next PM may be beholden to those who gave him the money to attend the hustings..SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I don't really see the problem with this. Campaigns for each of the candidates are quite well funded by supporters and pay for stuff like direct mail. Organising hustings etc is a substantial expense for CCHQ and the hustings are put on to help candidates convey their messages. Nobody making the top two would have any problem at all stumping up.JosiasJessop said:
It does say something about the state of CCHQ funding, however.1 -
How many other people have been favourite in this market? Hasn't it included Gove and Davis as well?AlastairMeeks said:
Laying Jacob Rees-Mogg was a goldmine.Stereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
If you laid all the favourites then that would minimise losses on a Johnson victory, and if there were enough of them you could still come out ahead, depending on the exact odds and stakes.0 -
Yes indeed. Back when HY was telling us his time was coming.AlastairMeeks said:
Laying Jacob Rees-Mogg was a goldmine.Stereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
Sticking my neck out, I reckon Leadsom will achieve 200 -
Perhaps Tissue Price could write a header on laying the favourite.1
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You start as outsider in a race against Johnson. But there are two points. Firstly, it is not unlikely that Johnson will do or say something daft, or a revelation will emerge. So you don't have no chance by any means. Secondly, if Johnson really is going to be "Chairman of the Board" as claimed, he needs a Chief Exec, and you get that role by being every Tory's second favourite guy.Endillion said:
Even if you're 200+ up against 100 for Johnson, you're still losing the member vote.Benpointer said:
Also, £150k simply isn't a problem. These people have plenty of wealthy supporters and will be spending a substantial sum on their campaigns anyway.0 -
Back when May was facing her VoNC, a lot of people were arguing she should stay because her deal is the only one available. I never really understood that- surely if that's the case then it's all the more reason to replace her with somebody who would actually be good at selling the deal to parliament/their party. People didn't seem to be able to separate their support of the deal from their support of May.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have long since thought that that is Boris plan. Get the EU to make the odd change to the PD, submit it to the HOC, and it passes fairly easily and he winsBenpointer said:
... before caving in and accepting the deal the EU have already offered.Stark_Dawning said:This all has an air of utter pointlessness to it. Just get Boris in and send him off to kick that EU backside!
It could be that will still work, as you're suggesting. But maybe everyone's just too entrenched now. If that's the case then the people who wanted May to stay on are going to have to ask themselves whether that was for the best.0 -
Graham Brady and Cheryl Gillan are the counters AFAIK.DecrepitJohnL said:It is a shame Sunderland has only Labour MPs. It would not take them an hour to count a mere 300 votes.
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I have always been of the view that he would win a landslide if allowed anywhere near the membership. The question was whether MPs would stop that. I was never convinced that they would go so against the membership as to not put him forward. The voluntary party would have exploded.Casino_Royale said:
I’ll be second. I thought he was soiled goods, and with good reason.AlastairMeeks said:
I'll be first up to eat humble pie. My defence is that Boris Johnson is an absolutely terrible choice and I didn't think the Conservatives could be so stupid. But apparently they are.isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
The only thing I will say in my defence is that when the facts changed I quickly changed my betting position.
I have bet accordingly, so that I am mildly green on Bozza, green on all 10 with a couple of biggies.0 -
I have only done this market with play money (my biggest (and now only) exposure is - 120 quid on Leadsom winning) but I rode Boris's fluctuating price twice to lock in Green on the field.0
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But I put cash on Hammond at one stage so what do I know?0
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There are rumours he'll drop out and back Boris.rottenborough said:
Like your figures, although I would be happier if Raab was out now, as he is a clear and present danger to democracy in this country. And also totally out of his depth generally.AndyJS said:My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.
Boris Johnson 103
Jeremy Hunt 45
Michael Gove 42
Dominic Raab 30
Rory Stewart 22
Sajid Javid 21
Matthew Hancock 19
Andrea Leadsom 12
Mark Harper 10
Esther McVey 90 -
I was talking in the abstract about those years. You shouldn’t have backed the favourite in those years.isam said:
How could anyone have laid the favourite pre 2001 (assuming Betfair had a market on it that year, which I doubt actually)?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was profitable in 2016 when Boris was the long term favourite.Stereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
Ditto in 2005/03 with David Davis.
Ditto in 2001 with Portillo.
Ditto in 1997 with Clarke, Hezza, and Portillo.
Ditto in 1990 with Hezza and earlier than that John Moore!
Ditto in 1975 with Willie Whitelaw.
So since 1965 when the Tories have elected their leaders the long term favourite hasn’t won yet.0 -
That's literally what people see in him. Bumbling charm on the telly while appearing entirely unembarrassed about all your shitey previous behaviours is now a primo qualification to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.AndyJS said:I think Boris was amusing on Have I Got News For You, but apart from that I don't know what people see in him.
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Perhaps, but isn't enjoying a sound beating a pretty well exclusively public school thing ?Charles said:
Wannabes are the worst 😊Nigelb said:
But wasn't he a grammar school kid ?Charles said:
He’d probably enjoy it anywayNigelb said:
No need to go all Jo Brand on him...Charles said:
Disagree. Not with your views of Raab, but it’s important that he is soundly and publicly beaten...rottenborough said:
Like your figures, although I would be happier if Raab was out now, as he is a clear and present danger to democracy in this country. And also totally out of his depth generally.AndyJS said:My prediction. It assumes every MP votes for a candidate, with no spoilt papers.
Boris Johnson 103
Jeremy Hunt 45
Michael Gove 42
Dominic Raab 30
Rory Stewart 22
Sajid Javid 21
Matthew Hancock 19
Andrea Leadsom 12
Mark Harper 10
Esther McVey 90 -
I know. I just wanted to big-up @corporeal ...:)isam said:
I make no comment on the quality of the writing, just asked if there were ever any that considered Brexit might be a good thing. Apparently there have been at least eight in the last four years from @Richard_Tyndall and @Cyclefreeviewcode said:FPT
If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.
The siterunners @rcs1000 , @TheScreamingEagles and - of course - @MikeSmithson are also good.
Before I forget, has @Tissue_Price or @AndreaParma_82 or @AndyJS or @Casino_Royale or @Black_Rook or - come to think of it - you written articles? I like it when the analysts and gamblers come out to play.
Additionally we have had some articles from the pollsters, with Joe Twyman and Martin Boon announcing Deltapoll on here and a couple of others who I forget...
0 -
It definitely worked for the last tory election, and the last labour election. Not for Brown before that, but yes for Cameron.Stereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?0 -
If the rules have been changed (again) after the process has started, then it stinks.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I don't really see the problem with this. Campaigns for each of the candidates are quite well funded by supporters and pay for stuff like direct mail. Organising hustings etc is a substantial expense for CCHQ and the hustings are put on to help candidates convey their messages. Nobody making the top two would have any problem at all stumping up.JosiasJessop said:
It does say something about the state of CCHQ funding, however.
I also hope the sources of funding for this (and indeed all the candidates) are declared to parliament.2 -
My position was that Boris Johnson would be a reckless, bordering on the foolhardy, choice as Party leader, who would be a poor PM.
That remains my opinion.1 -
Although really the blame would be with the ERG. They were the ones who totally failed to reach out during the VoNC and make the argument to any other Tories that it might be in their interests to replace May too. Instead it was a pointless, counterproductive, feather-puffing exercise.Stereotomy said:
Back when May was facing her VoNC, a lot of people were arguing she should stay because her deal is the only one available. I never really understood that- surely if that's the case then it's all the more reason to replace her with somebody who would actually be good at selling the deal to parliament/their party. People didn't seem to be able to separate their support of the deal from their support of May.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have long since thought that that is Boris plan. Get the EU to make the odd change to the PD, submit it to the HOC, and it passes fairly easily and he winsBenpointer said:
... before caving in and accepting the deal the EU have already offered.Stark_Dawning said:This all has an air of utter pointlessness to it. Just get Boris in and send him off to kick that EU backside!
It could be that will still work, as you're suggesting. But maybe everyone's just too entrenched now. If that's the case then the people who wanted May to stay on are going to have to ask themselves whether that was for the best.2 -
Adding a fourth reason why Boris might underperform, to the three I offered earlierScott_P said:0 -
If the Conservatives take an hour to count about 300 pieces of paper it says a lot about how we got into this disaster.0
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It all seemed to go wrong for Rees-Mogg with the publication of his terrible book on the Victorian era, which was lambasted across the political spectrum. It rather exposed him as a pseudo-intellectual and money grabber. In Boris world I doubt we'll hear much of him again.IanB2 said:
Yes indeed. Back when HY was telling us his time was coming.AlastairMeeks said:
Laying Jacob Rees-Mogg was a goldmine.Stereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
Sticking my neck out, I reckon Leadsom will achieve 200 -
I’ve done one or two but I find it hard work, to be honest.viewcode said:
I know. I just wanted to big-up @corporeal ...:)isam said:
I make no comment on the quality of the writing, just asked if there were ever any that considered Brexit might be a good thing. Apparently there have been at least eight in the last four years from @Richard_Tyndall and @Cyclefreeviewcode said:FPT
If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.
The siterunners @rcs1000 , @TheScreamingEagles and - of course - @MikeSmithson are also good.
Before I forget, has @Tissue_Price or @AndreaParma_82 or @AndyJS or @Casino_Royale or @Black_Rook or - come to think of it - you written articles? I like it when the analysts and gamblers come out to play.
Additionally we have had some articles from the pollsters, with Joe Twyman and Martin Boon announcing Deltapoll on here and a couple of others who I forget...0
