politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for the Betrayals Ahead
Comments
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If Boris gets 120 votes he’ll go through.AndyJS said:
Agree, but with this silly voting system you can get 120 in the first round and not be certain of going through if your supporters get bored and start voting for other candidates in later rounds.kinabalu said:Apols if already done but I am interested in what people think the 2 magic numbers are for Johnson in the 1st ballot - i.e. the one that if he exceeds it means he is virtually home and hosed, and the one that if he falls below it means he might be in serious danger.
I am thinking 120 and 80?0 -
Because Brexit means Brexit is both a rather short header and neither reasoned nor coherent...Nigelb said:
I agree; it's an interesting question.isam said:
I’ve answered that question several times on this thread, but is it really whingeing to point out the imbalance?OllyT said:
Why don't you write one yourself instead of whingingisam said:Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
I merely enquired if there had been any, and now @TheScreamingEagles has confirmed: Two in the last 1500 days/4500 threads or so, and none for three years, (written by a leaver that is pro mass immigration, so not entirely representative of leave voters I’d say)
There is no real impediment to anyone presenting a reasoned and coherent case, so why are such headers so rare ?
It would actually be fun trying to right a coherent rational for a No Deal Brexit - I'm curious to see how far I would actually get which I suspect wouldn't be that far. I also suspect any Brexiters would really dislike it.
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LOL!Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/andrewhunterm/status/1138744036502757376JosiasJessop said:I fear you're putting a little too much faith in Boris's skill and planning. In what do you base this faith ?
The Garden Bridge fiasco - and Boris's refusal to cooperate with the inquiry - is a perfect example of why he'll be a terrible PM IMO.
And yet, and yet... I quite like him. I just think he'll be a terrible PM.0 -
Possibly, they were the ones I recall as I was the publisher.geoffw said:
One before and one immediately after the 2016 referendum.TheScreamingEagles said:
Except we’ve done so, unless you think Richard Tyndall is a Remainer.geoffw said:There being no answer to @isam's question other than suggestions that he write one shows the institutional bias of this site. Sad but true.
Richard Tyndall has written a couple of headers on Leaving/what to do next.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/26/richard-tyndall-on-the-exit-strategy/
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/29/richard-tyndall-on-laying-the-groundwork-for-an-out-vote/
Anything since then?0 -
That was Victor Weisz.Cyclefree said:
It was a long plane journey. I’ll try cuneiform next time.IanB2 said:Cycle’s leads are so text heavy.
Quite right. But wasn’t he also known as Vicky? Apologies if I got this wrong.Stark_Dawning said:That cartoon was by Sir David Low.
Low was "the scum of the earth, I believe?" ...0 -
In 2011 about Ed Miliband... that redresses the balance, I take it all back.. good point!JosiasJessop said:
Haven't you had threaders published in the past?isam said:
I have submitted two or three which have been knocked back or ignored, so your assumption is incorrect.OllyT said:
Seriously unless you are suggesting that pro-Brexit headers are being submitted and rejected or censored we must assume that they are not appearing because nobody is writing them.geoffw said:
One before and one immediately after the 2016 referendum.TheScreamingEagles said:
Except we’ve done so, unless you think Richard Tyndall is a Remainer.geoffw said:There being no answer to @isam's question other than suggestions that he write one shows the institutional bias of this site. Sad but true.
Richard Tyndall has written a couple of headers on Leaving/what to do next.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/26/richard-tyndall-on-the-exit-strategy/
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/29/richard-tyndall-on-laying-the-groundwork-for-an-out-vote/
Anything since then?
Seems like the usual case of leavers blaming everyone else but themselves for the problem. Perhaps some of you should get off your backsides and submit a piece
Anyway, I am prepared to accept the site bias, I like commenting below the line, but thought it worth pointing out
I'll give two answers to your question:
1) Leavers are far too busy and influential to bother writing informed headers for free.
2) Leavers understand that their project is an almighty mess, and it is difficult to write anything positive about it. It's easier to let someone else do it, and then they can be blamed.
Choose whichever you prefer
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It’s just the usual double standards and hypocrisy. If it had been said by a male right leaning Brexit supporting comedian - do the BBC employ anyone that meets that criteria? - the same people defending her would have been calling for her sacking and prosecution. The fact she did it on air on a BBC show and it was broadcast is even worse - rather than say using her personal twitter account.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Inciting someone to use acid to attack someone else, comedy or otherwise, is a very serious matter and at the very least the BBC should suspend herJackW said:
It depends what the consequences are.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It was wholly unacceptable and she should face consequencesHarris_Tweed said:
I happen to agree with him that it's pretty off-colour.AndyJS said:
But from Nigel "pick up a rifle and head for the front lines" Farage, it loses its sting a little.
If scorn is poured on her from opponents then I'm with you. If you can't take it then don't dish it out.
However if you're implying some form of formal sanction, investigation or legal action then I say no. If a citizen can't ridicule and imply comedic violence against our all too powerful politicians then we begin the slide toward a situation that should not be contemplated
I recall Kenny Everett bringing the house down when he told the Conservative conference to kick away Michael Foot's walking stick and nuke Moscow.
Be careful what you wish for.
As the hundreds who have been acid attacked in London in recent years remind us its no laughing matter. You never recover from it.2 -
'Alan Brooke' has done several headers with a pro Brexit and anti globalization slant to them.0
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Not down to "skill and planning" so much as there's not much else to do with the hand he will inherit.JosiasJessop said:
I fear you're putting a little too much faith in Boris's skill and planning. In what do you base this faith ?MarqueeMark said:
Likewise. But with a Paddington Hard Stare from Boris, directed at Brussels. If he thinks for one minute the EU is acting in bad faith, he will pull the whole thing. "Abrogation" will be the big stick Boris will threaten to wield, a weapon unknown in May's armoury.HYUFD said:
I suspect the Withdrawal Agreement tweaked may still be the final destinationDecrepitJohnL said:
Probably we will leave on something like Theresa May's terms but tweaked so everyone can save face. A far longer transition period before the dreaded backstop, perhaps to allow technological solutions, and removal of May's red lines round FOM. It gives all three sides cover.HYUFD said:If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all
Having planned for it in the meantime.0 -
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Andrea Leadsom had drifted to 11 but is back at 9 again.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1255749630 -
Tariffs is a great example of this. Game theory says you need to maximise them to ensure you have something to negotiate with however we would need to keep them at zero to ensure we could still get the essentials from the EU that we would need due to our economy being built around 20+ years of free trade within the EU.JosiasJessop said:
Haven't you had threaders published in the past?isam said:
I have submitted two or three which have been knocked back or ignored, so your assumption is incorrect.OllyT said:
Seriously unless you are suggesting that pro-Brexit headers are being submitted and rejected or censored we must assume that they are not appearing because nobody is writing them.geoffw said:
One before and one immediately after the 2016 referendum.TheScreamingEagles said:
Except we’ve done so, unless you think Richard Tyndall is a Remainer.geoffw said:There being no answer to @isam's question other than suggestions that he write one shows the institutional bias of this site. Sad but true.
Richard Tyndall has written a couple of headers on Leaving/what to do next.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/26/richard-tyndall-on-the-exit-strategy/
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/29/richard-tyndall-on-laying-the-groundwork-for-an-out-vote/
Anything since then?
Seems like the usual case of leavers blaming everyone else but themselves for the problem. Perhaps some of you should get off your backsides and submit a piece
Anyway, I am prepared to accept the site bias, I like commenting below the line, but thought it worth pointing out
I'll give two answers to your question:
1) Leavers are far too busy and influential to bother writing informed headers for free.
2) Leavers understand that their project is an almighty mess, and it is difficult to write anything positive about it. It's easier to let someone else do it, and then they can be blamed.
Choose whichever you prefer0 -
Leadsom keeps flying in and out. She drifts to 11.5 and nearly touches 12 before shortening again to 9.4 and 9.6.
And then it repeats.
Is someone still feeding the badger?0 -
To anyone despairing of BBC comedy there are some good laughs to be had on Channel 4 News.0
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A very good post. But most of this could have been got with Cameron’s deal. And if this is what had been pursued after the referendum we might not be where we are now. But it wasn’t. And perhaps there never was any realistic chance that it would be. So that is why, despite sharing many of @DavidL’s concerns, I prefer to remain.Charles said:
Spot on and well writtenDavidL said:Why do I still want Brexit?
Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.
None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.
For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.0 -
Ah, the old Trumpean 'pwn the libtards' spiel, always a sound basis for the future of any country.HYUFD said:0 -
Yup. He did a magnificent series about the Emerald Isle.kinabalu said:'Alan Brooke' has done several headers with a pro Brexit and anti globalization slant to them.
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I was doubtful about big pockets trying to influence the odds but this is now ridiculous to-yoing.Casino_Royale said:Leadsom keeps flying in and out. She drifts to 11.5 and nearly touches 12 before shortening again to 9.4 and 9.6.
And then it repeats.
Is someone still feeding the badger?
I now think the Leadsom backer theory is correct.0 -
I'll admit snark is tempting, but I'm genuinely interested.eek said:
Because Brexit means Brexit is both a rather short header and neither reasoned nor coherent...Nigelb said:
I agree; it's an interesting question.isam said:
I’ve answered that question several times on this thread, but is it really whingeing to point out the imbalance?OllyT said:
Why don't you write one yourself instead of whingingisam said:Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
I merely enquired if there had been any, and now @TheScreamingEagles has confirmed: Two in the last 1500 days/4500 threads or so, and none for three years, (written by a leaver that is pro mass immigration, so not entirely representative of leave voters I’d say)
There is no real impediment to anyone presenting a reasoned and coherent case, so why are such headers so rare ?
It would actually be fun trying to right a coherent rational for a No Deal Brexit - I'm curious to see how far I would actually get which I suspect wouldn't be that far. I also suspect any Brexiters would really dislike it.
Apart from apparently isam, and Alanbrooke, has anyone else made the effort ?0 -
Really? I thought you'd had one or two since since then. Or perhaps I'm misremembering links to your blog.isam said:
In 2011 about Ed Miliband... that redresses the balance, I take it all back.. good point!JosiasJessop said:
Haven't you had threaders published in the past?isam said:
I have submitted two or three which have been knocked back or ignored, so your assumption is incorrect.OllyT said:
Seriously unless you are suggesting that pro-Brexit headers are being submitted and rejected or censored we must assume that they are not appearing because nobody is writing them.geoffw said:
One before and one immediately after the 2016 referendum.TheScreamingEagles said:
Except we’ve done so, unless you think Richard Tyndall is a Remainer.geoffw said:There being no answer to @isam's question other than suggestions that he write one shows the institutional bias of this site. Sad but true.
Richard Tyndall has written a couple of headers on Leaving/what to do next.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/26/richard-tyndall-on-the-exit-strategy/
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/29/richard-tyndall-on-laying-the-groundwork-for-an-out-vote/
Anything since then?
Seems like the usual case of leavers blaming everyone else but themselves for the problem. Perhaps some of you should get off your backsides and submit a piece
Anyway, I am prepared to accept the site bias, I like commenting below the line, but thought it worth pointing out
I'll give two answers to your question:
1) Leavers are far too busy and influential to bother writing informed headers for free.
2) Leavers understand that their project is an almighty mess, and it is difficult to write anything positive about it. It's easier to let someone else do it, and then they can be blamed.
Choose whichever you prefer0 -
"Sajid Javid signs US extradition request for Wikileaks founder Julian Assange - where he faces up to 175 years in prison for 'leaking military secrets'"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7136697/Sajid-Javid-signs-extradition-order-Julian-Assange.html0 -
Great piece Cyclefree. You are absolutely right that No Deal offers pitfalls in the medium term. Which is why Boris will go to the country in October, kill off the Brexit threat, kill off the Corbyn threat and buy himself 5 years to sort the No Deal mess.0
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Brexit is all wispy mirage, requests for reasoned cases is naught but Remainer obstructionalism.Nigelb said:.
Apparently not.geoffw said:
One before and one immediately after the 2016 referendum.TheScreamingEagles said:
Except we’ve done so, unless you think Richard Tyndall is a Remainer.geoffw said:There being no answer to @isam's question other than suggestions that he write one shows the institutional bias of this site. Sad but true.
Richard Tyndall has written a couple of headers on Leaving/what to do next.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/26/richard-tyndall-on-the-exit-strategy/
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/29/richard-tyndall-on-laying-the-groundwork-for-an-out-vote/
Anything since then?
The unwillingness of Leavers to put forward a reasoned case at length is highly disappointing.0 -
If it is it will stop at 12pm sharp when voting ends.Alistair said:
I was doubtful about big pockets trying to influence the odds but this is now ridiculous to-yoing.Casino_Royale said:Leadsom keeps flying in and out. She drifts to 11.5 and nearly touches 12 before shortening again to 9.4 and 9.6.
And then it repeats.
Is someone still feeding the badger?
I now think the Leadsom backer theory is correct.0 -
Ah yes a WTO deal, because when I choose to walk away from signing a contract it's definitely known as a "deal".williamglenn said:Raab: “It’s really about will.”
https://twitter.com/dominicraab/status/1139103539970678784?s=211 -
Someone’s still piling cash on her. Really hope there isn’t a secret plan somewhere, because that someone must be close to six figures in the hole by now.AndyJS said:Andrea Leadsom had drifted to 11 but is back at 9 again.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1255749630 -
A triumph of the will, as it were.williamglenn said:Raab: “It’s really about will.”
https://twitter.com/dominicraab/status/1139103539970678784?s=210 -
Gove on the serious drift now - touching 40s on Betfair.0
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I'm not sure Leadsom can get 17 votes. She could be knocked out of the race in 2 hours and 10 minutes.0
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It is called falling into a great deal of shitRH1992 said:
Ah yes a WTO deal, because when I choose to walk away from signing a contract it's definitely known as a "deal".williamglenn said:Raab: “It’s really about will.”
https://twitter.com/dominicraab/status/1139103539970678784?s=210 -
Leaving aside people’s particular views on the EU question, writing articles is definitely more difficult than it appears, so well done to those who do.Nigelb said:
I'll admit snark is tempting, but I'm genuinely interested.eek said:
Because Brexit means Brexit is both a rather short header and neither reasoned nor coherent...Nigelb said:
I agree; it's an interesting question.isam said:
I’ve answered that question several times on this thread, but is it really whingeing to point out the imbalance?OllyT said:
Why don't you write one yourself instead of whingingisam said:Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
I merely enquired if there had been any, and now @TheScreamingEagles has confirmed: Two in the last 1500 days/4500 threads or so, and none for three years, (written by a leaver that is pro mass immigration, so not entirely representative of leave voters I’d say)
There is no real impediment to anyone presenting a reasoned and coherent case, so why are such headers so rare ?
It would actually be fun trying to right a coherent rational for a No Deal Brexit - I'm curious to see how far I would actually get which I suspect wouldn't be that far. I also suspect any Brexiters would really dislike it.
Apart from apparently isam, and Alanbrooke, has anyone else made the effort ?
I attempted one on aviation and Brexit (because most political journalists were getting it completely wrong) but it quickly descended into an alphabet soup of acronyms and inside terminology, yet still ran to well over 1,000 words!
By the way, there’s now agreement between U.K. and EU that, even in the event of a crash-out no-deal, there would still be a transition period for aviation that would prevent planes and pilots from being grounded.0 -
BBC - Website :
Former Prime Minister Sir John Major has hit out at Tory leadership candidates suggesting they could suspend - or prorogue - Parliament in order to get through a no-deal Brexit.
Both Dominic Raab and Esther McVey have not ruled out the prospect.
But Sir John said to even suggest it was "dangerous territory" and that he could not imagine previous prime ministers "putting Parliament aside" to get through a "difficult policy".
He told the Chatham House London conference: "It is fundamentally unconstitutional, and to hear that argument come from people who in the Brexit debate talked of the sovereignty of Parliament being at stake, it is not only fundamentally distasteful, it is hypocrisy on a gold-plated standard."
Sir John said he did not think the House of Commons "will allow it to stand".
He adds: "To be absolutely frank, I don't think anyone who proposes [it] or even lets it flit through their mind for a second has any understanding of what Parliament is about, what sovereignty is about, what leadership is about or what the United Kingdom is about.
"And the sooner the House of Commons stamp on this idea, absolutely comprehensively and forever, the better."1 -
OK thanks - let's go with 80 and 120 then.AndyJS said:Agree, but with this silly voting system you can get 120 in the first round and not be certain of going through if your supporters get bored and start voting for other candidates in later rounds.
Unfortunately (from my point of view) I sense that there is more chance of him beating 120 than there is of him failing to get 80.
It's getting a coronation feel about it to me.
I make a tidy sum but I would gladly give away thrice that tidy sum if it bought me a world where Boris Johnson would never be our PM.0 -
..0
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Sky News - Theresa May about to vote.
Beth Rigby suspects she'll go for Hunt or Stewart.
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That would have been high on Trump’s list of things to discuss last week.AndyJS said:"Sajid Javid signs US extradition request for Wikileaks founder Julian Assange - where he faces up to 175 years in prison for 'leaking military secrets'"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7136697/Sajid-Javid-signs-extradition-order-Julian-Assange.html0 -
Any predictions? Mine is Leadsom, McVey and Harper won't progress beyond the first round. Not sure which of them will come bottom.0
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The problem is that most people claiming to be journalists, including Johnson himself, are not journalists but self-aggrandising polemicists.Scott_P said:0 -
Javid and Raab look done too on Betfair.
Only Roary and Leadsom look safe - could Boris loan Andrea a few to keep a woman in the race ?0 -
Gove will trounce Leadsom with the actual numbers. It'll interesting to watch the Betfair figures when that happens.TGOHF said:Javid and Raab look done too on Betfair.
Only Roary and Leadsom look safe - could Boris loan Andrea a few to keep a woman in the race ?0 -
Fair point.Sandpit said:
Leaving aside people’s particular views on the EU question, writing articles is definitely more difficult than it appears, so well done to those who do.Nigelb said:
I'll admit snark is tempting, but I'm genuinely interested.eek said:
Because Brexit means Brexit is both a rather short header and neither reasoned nor coherent...Nigelb said:
I agree; it's an interesting question.isam said:
I’ve answered that question several times on this thread, but is it really whingeing to point out the imbalance?OllyT said:
Why don't you write one yourself instead of whingingisam said:Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
I merely enquired if there had been any, and now @TheScreamingEagles has confirmed: Two in the last 1500 days/4500 threads or so, and none for three years, (written by a leaver that is pro mass immigration, so not entirely representative of leave voters I’d say)
There is no real impediment to anyone presenting a reasoned and coherent case, so why are such headers so rare ?
It would actually be fun trying to right a coherent rational for a No Deal Brexit - I'm curious to see how far I would actually get which I suspect wouldn't be that far. I also suspect any Brexiters would really dislike it.
Apart from apparently isam, and Alanbrooke, has anyone else made the effort ?
I attempted one on aviation and Brexit (because most political journalists were getting it completely wrong) but it quickly descended into an alphabet soup of acronyms and inside terminology, yet still ran to well over 1,000 words!
As an exercise I scrolled back through the last three months of headers, and the bulk are by our eminent host, TSE, Alastair Meeks, Cyclefree and David Herdson, with some by Harry Hayfield and Sunil.
The regulars are regular, because they both willing to contribute and rather good at doing so.
This one was quite prescient...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/01/con-leadership-betting-analysis-this-is-less-about-brexit-and-more-about-personal-characteristics/
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Surprised she’s voting, doesn’t the incumbent usually sit it out? (An observation not a critique)JackW said:Sky News - Theresa May about to vote.
Beth Rigby suspects she'll go for Hunt or Stewart.0 -
My guess is Boris will get between 85 and 105. I don't see him going as high as 120 in the first round.kinabalu said:
OK thanks - let's go with 80 and 120 then.AndyJS said:Agree, but with this silly voting system you can get 120 in the first round and not be certain of going through if your supporters get bored and start voting for other candidates in later rounds.
Unfortunately (from my point of view) I sense that there is more chance of him beating 120 than there is of him failing to get 80.
It's getting a coronation feel about it to me.
I make a tidy sum but I would gladly give away thrice that tidy sum if it bought me a world where Boris Johnson would never be our PM.0 -
Doesn`t "with a WTO deal" really mean "without any deals at all"?williamglenn said:Raab: “It’s really about will.”
https://twitter.com/dominicraab/status/1139103539970678784?s=210 -
Not always.numbertwelve said:
Surprised she’s voting, doesn’t the incumbent usually sit it out? (An observation not a critique)JackW said:Sky News - Theresa May about to vote.
Beth Rigby suspects she'll go for Hunt or Stewart.
Dave (pbuh) did sit it out.
Howard, Major, and Thatcher did vote (For Dave (pbuh), Ken Clarke, and John Major.)0 -
bet365 are sat at 11/1, happy to take her on.AndyJS said:Andrea Leadsom had drifted to 11 but is back at 9 again.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1255749630 -
With regards to not paying the money owed to the EU and just walking away. Dunno about you lot but as a contract negotiator I always give better deals to untrustworthy people who default on their obligations0
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"Marco Rubio finishes third in Iowa and has become odds on favourite for the nomination."AndyJS said:
Gove will trounce Leadsom with the actual numbers. It'll interesting to watch the Betfair figures when that happens.TGOHF said:Javid and Raab look done too on Betfair.
Only Roary and Leadsom look safe - could Boris loan Andrea a few to keep a woman in the race ?
An actual real sentence.0 -
As I am still a member of the Party Formally Recognised as the Conservative Party, I am almost tempted to vote for Boris so that he can be seen for the complete fuckwit that he is and have to soak up the opprobrium that he deserves. Unless there is a miracle and Rory Stewart wins (unlikely), the fantasists that tempted gullible people to vote for Brexit will continue to ensure our county's decline whoever gets in. It might as well be Johnson so he can end up with the title of shittest PM of all time.kinabalu said:
OK thanks - let's go with 80 and 120 then.AndyJS said:Agree, but with this silly voting system you can get 120 in the first round and not be certain of going through if your supporters get bored and start voting for other candidates in later rounds.
Unfortunately (from my point of view) I sense that there is more chance of him beating 120 than there is of him failing to get 80.
It's getting a coronation feel about it to me.
I make a tidy sum but I would gladly give away thrice that tidy sum if it bought me a world where Boris Johnson would never be our PM.0 -
The Saj unhappy about non invite, with some justification it would appear.
https://twitter.com/Jacqui_Smith1/status/11391053484706734080 -
You are more generous than me, I have a blanket policy that I won't work with them ever again..RochdalePioneers said:With regards to not paying the money owed to the EU and just walking away. Dunno about you lot but as a contract negotiator I always give better deals to untrustworthy people who default on their obligations
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Let's not forget Major's duplicity when portraying himself as the Eurosceptic candidate in order to win the leadership over Heseltine and Hurd in 1990.JackW said:BBC - Website :
Former Prime Minister Sir John Major has hit out at Tory leadership candidates suggesting they could suspend - or prorogue - Parliament in order to get through a no-deal Brexit.
Both Dominic Raab and Esther McVey have not ruled out the prospect.
But Sir John said to even suggest it was "dangerous territory" and that he could not imagine previous prime ministers "putting Parliament aside" to get through a "difficult policy".
He told the Chatham House London conference: "It is fundamentally unconstitutional, and to hear that argument come from people who in the Brexit debate talked of the sovereignty of Parliament being at stake, it is not only fundamentally distasteful, it is hypocrisy on a gold-plated standard."
Sir John said he did not think the House of Commons "will allow it to stand".
He adds: "To be absolutely frank, I don't think anyone who proposes [it] or even lets it flit through their mind for a second has any understanding of what Parliament is about, what sovereignty is about, what leadership is about or what the United Kingdom is about.
"And the sooner the House of Commons stamp on this idea, absolutely comprehensively and forever, the better."0 -
You never know, it might not... *crosses fingers*Casino_Royale said:
If it is it will stop at 12pm sharp when voting ends.Alistair said:
I was doubtful about big pockets trying to influence the odds but this is now ridiculous to-yoing.Casino_Royale said:Leadsom keeps flying in and out. She drifts to 11.5 and nearly touches 12 before shortening again to 9.4 and 9.6.
And then it repeats.
Is someone still feeding the badger?
I now think the Leadsom backer theory is correct.0 -
A while back I thought I'd write one about the EU's decision about Galileo, and how it was a poor move from them, and a poor indicator for how Brexit would go (and yes, I blamed the EU for a terrible decision).Nigelb said:Fair point.
As an exercise I scrolled back through the last three months of headers, and the bulk are by our eminent host, TSE, Alastair Meeks, Cyclefree and David Herdson, with some by Harry Hayfield and Sunil.
The regulars are regular, because they both willing to contribute and rather good at doing so.
This one was quite prescient...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/01/con-leadership-betting-analysis-this-is-less-about-brexit-and-more-about-personal-characteristics/
To avoid confusing people, it turned into a technical primer / history lesson. I tried to trim it down to get to the nub of the point, but it proved too difficult. I'm just not skilled enough.
Writing threaders is immensely difficult, and I admire those who do it well (esp. Mr Meeks, who has quite a stellar throughput of high-quality threaders).1 -
Were they worried that Donald might have mistaken him for Sadiq?Theuniondivvie said:The Saj unhappy about non invite, with some justification it would appear.
https://twitter.com/Jacqui_Smith1/status/11391053484706734082 -
I can see why Cameron - who resigned sat out the election. May did not resign and her vote is probably more against a few people than actually for anyone..numbertwelve said:
Surprised she’s voting, doesn’t the incumbent usually sit it out? (An observation not a critique)JackW said:Sky News - Theresa May about to vote.
Beth Rigby suspects she'll go for Hunt or Stewart.0 -
Thanks to CycleFree for the header. I like the long pieces like this.0
-
Cameron did in 2016, but Howard voted in 2005. No ballots in 2003, Hague voted in 2003, but Major didn't vote in 1997.numbertwelve said:
Surprised she’s voting, doesn’t the incumbent usually sit it out? (An observation not a critique)JackW said:Sky News - Theresa May about to vote.
Beth Rigby suspects she'll go for Hunt or Stewart.
Seems to depend on the mood of the leader, no clear trend.0 -
Duplicity? His opt-out from the single currency wasn't the action of a Europhile PM.Wulfrun_Phil said:Let's not forget Major's duplicity when portraying himself as the Eurosceptic candidate in order to win the leadership over Heseltine and Hurd in 1990.
0 -
BBC - All ten candidates have voted. Boris last to vote.
Well at least he found the room unaided .... probably.0 -
But he wouldn't have been able to talk to Javid about it other dinner since the Home Secretary wasn't invited to the State Banquet.Sandpit said:
That would have been high on Trump’s list of things to discuss last week.AndyJS said:"Sajid Javid signs US extradition request for Wikileaks founder Julian Assange - where he faces up to 175 years in prison for 'leaking military secrets'"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7136697/Sajid-Javid-signs-extradition-order-Julian-Assange.html0 -
I really miss David Cameron.
I may spend the rest of today rendering my garments.0 -
You may have missed my dripping sarcasm. Or maybe not...!eek said:
You are more generous than me, I have a blanket policy that I won't work with them ever again..RochdalePioneers said:With regards to not paying the money owed to the EU and just walking away. Dunno about you lot but as a contract negotiator I always give better deals to untrustworthy people who default on their obligations
Exactly the point though. No deal supporters imagine a world where we waltz away from our EU obligations owing cash and creating havoc, and then waltz up to the big trading nations who also trade with the EU and say "you can trust us. We know we just shafted your partner and we know we are now hugely smaller in size and less important. But you absolutely will give us a much better deal than the one we just defaulted on because we survived the blitz."
I don't know who scares me the most. The morons saying it? Or the millions of morons out there who believe it.0 -
That is possible.RochdalePioneers said:Great piece Cyclefree. You are absolutely right that No Deal offers pitfalls in the medium term. Which is why Boris will go to the country in October, kill off the Brexit threat, kill off the Corbyn threat and buy himself 5 years to sort the No Deal mess.
Also possible that such an election becomes a highly polarizing quasi Ref2 - Tories offering Hard Brexit vs Labour offering No Brexit via an actual Ref2 - and that Labour win.
Which is why I (just) think that he won't do it. He will backtrack on his 'promises' to the membership (they are offered only to secure the job) and when the crunch comes he will choose fudge and delay instead. Will try to finesse a rebranded May Deal - now the 'Johnson Deal' - through parliament in 2020.0 -
Thank you Nigel. I'm glad you didn't put the link to the one where I recommended backing Esther McVeyNigelb said:
Fair point.Sandpit said:
Leaving aside people’s particular views on the EU question, writing articles is definitely more difficult than it appears, so well done to those who do.Nigelb said:
I'll admit snark is tempting, but I'm genuinely interested.eek said:
Because Brexit means Brexit is both a rather short header and neither reasoned nor coherent...Nigelb said:
I agree; it's an interesting question.isam said:
I’ve answered that question several times on this thread, but is it really whingeing to point out the imbalance?OllyT said:
Why don't you write one yourself instead of whingingisam said:Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
I merely enquired if there had been any, and now @TheScreamingEagles has confirmed: Two in the last 1500 days/4500 threads or so, and none for three years, (written by a leaver that is pro mass immigration, so not entirely representative of leave voters I’d say)
There is no real impediment to anyone presenting a reasoned and coherent case, so why are such headers so rare ?
It would actually be fun trying to right a coherent rational for a No Deal Brexit - I'm curious to see how far I would actually get which I suspect wouldn't be that far. I also suspect any Brexiters would really dislike it.
Apart from apparently isam, and Alanbrooke, has anyone else made the effort ?
I attempted one on aviation and Brexit (because most political journalists were getting it completely wrong) but it quickly descended into an alphabet soup of acronyms and inside terminology, yet still ran to well over 1,000 words!
As an exercise I scrolled back through the last three months of headers, and the bulk are by our eminent host, TSE, Alastair Meeks, Cyclefree and David Herdson, with some by Harry Hayfield and Sunil.
The regulars are regular, because they both willing to contribute and rather good at doing so.
This one was quite prescient...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/01/con-leadership-betting-analysis-this-is-less-about-brexit-and-more-about-personal-characteristics/
1 -
Yea, you have to respect how tough they are. I mean, if I were selling my house, I would definitely favour a potential buyer whom I know defaulted on his last mortgage. I mean what a cool guy! You would just have to offer him a good dealRochdalePioneers said:With regards to not paying the money owed to the EU and just walking away. Dunno about you lot but as a contract negotiator I always give better deals to untrustworthy people who default on their obligations
0 -
There is a considerable difference between Europhile (e.g. Clarke), Eurosceptic (Major, Cameron) and Europhobe (Davis, JRM, etc).Wulfrun_Phil said:
Let's not forget Major's duplicity when portraying himself as the Eurosceptic candidate in order to win the leadership over Heseltine and Hurd in 1990.JackW said:BBC - Website :
Former Prime Minister Sir John Major has hit out at Tory leadership candidates suggesting they could suspend - or prorogue - Parliament in order to get through a no-deal Brexit.
Both Dominic Raab and Esther McVey have not ruled out the prospect.
But Sir John said to even suggest it was "dangerous territory" and that he could not imagine previous prime ministers "putting Parliament aside" to get through a "difficult policy".
He told the Chatham House London conference: "It is fundamentally unconstitutional, and to hear that argument come from people who in the Brexit debate talked of the sovereignty of Parliament being at stake, it is not only fundamentally distasteful, it is hypocrisy on a gold-plated standard."
Sir John said he did not think the House of Commons "will allow it to stand".
He adds: "To be absolutely frank, I don't think anyone who proposes [it] or even lets it flit through their mind for a second has any understanding of what Parliament is about, what sovereignty is about, what leadership is about or what the United Kingdom is about.
"And the sooner the House of Commons stamp on this idea, absolutely comprehensively and forever, the better."0 -
5 candidates could get knocked out today if Hancock and Javid lose a few of their backers and don't pick up any new support.0
-
Well you did also predict, by implication, Rory Stewart's candidature.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Thank you Nigel. I'm glad you didn't put the link to the one where I recommended backing Esther McVeyNigelb said:
Fair point.Sandpit said:
Leaving aside people’s particular views on the EU question, writing articles is definitely more difficult than it appears, so well done to those who do.Nigelb said:
I'll admit snark is tempting, but I'm genuinely interested.eek said:
Because Brexit means Brexit is both a rather short header and neither reasoned nor coherent...Nigelb said:
I agree; it's an interesting question.isam said:
I’ve answered that question several times on this thread, but is it really whingeing to point out the imbalance?OllyT said:
Why don't you write one yourself instead of whingingisam said:Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
I merely enquired if there had been any, and now @TheScreamingEagles has confirmed: Two in the last 1500 days/4500 threads or so, and none for three years, (written by a leaver that is pro mass immigration, so not entirely representative of leave voters I’d say)
There is no real impediment to anyone presenting a reasoned and coherent case, so why are such headers so rare ?
It would actually be fun trying to right a coherent rational for a No Deal Brexit - I'm curious to see how far I would actually get which I suspect wouldn't be that far. I also suspect any Brexiters would really dislike it.
Apart from apparently isam, and Alanbrooke, has anyone else made the effort ?
I attempted one on aviation and Brexit (because most political journalists were getting it completely wrong) but it quickly descended into an alphabet soup of acronyms and inside terminology, yet still ran to well over 1,000 words!
As an exercise I scrolled back through the last three months of headers, and the bulk are by our eminent host, TSE, Alastair Meeks, Cyclefree and David Herdson, with some by Harry Hayfield and Sunil.
The regulars are regular, because they both willing to contribute and rather good at doing so.
This one was quite prescient...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/01/con-leadership-betting-analysis-this-is-less-about-brexit-and-more-about-personal-characteristics/0 -
I'm happy with WTO but agree that if we have agreed to contribute to projects within the EU then we should pay our due, Unless the EU was to show serious bad faith then at that point we could withhold part/all.RochdalePioneers said:With regards to not paying the money owed to the EU and just walking away. Dunno about you lot but as a contract negotiator I always give better deals to untrustworthy people who default on their obligations
Haven't seen any bad faith yet - only EU looking after their own interests. Not their fault if they offer us terms and T May says we will give you a lot more than you are asking for.0 -
Was there a 1,000 word limit? I think it would be a good thing (this one is a bit over 1,500). The caption of a Matt cartoon is pretty much the limit on my attention span these days.Sandpit said:
Leaving aside people’s particular views on the EU question, writing articles is definitely more difficult than it appears, so well done to those who do.Nigelb said:
I'll admit snark is tempting, but I'm genuinely interested.eek said:
Because Brexit means Brexit is both a rather short header and neither reasoned nor coherent...Nigelb said:
I agree; it's an interesting question.isam said:
I’ve answered that question several times on this thread, but is it really whingeing to point out the imbalance?OllyT said:
Why don't you write one yourself instead of whingingisam said:Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
I merely enquired if there had been any, and now @TheScreamingEagles has confirmed: Two in the last 1500 days/4500 threads or so, and none for three years, (written by a leaver that is pro mass immigration, so not entirely representative of leave voters I’d say)
There is no real impediment to anyone presenting a reasoned and coherent case, so why are such headers so rare ?
It would actually be fun trying to right a coherent rational for a No Deal Brexit - I'm curious to see how far I would actually get which I suspect wouldn't be that far. I also suspect any Brexiters would really dislike it.
Apart from apparently isam, and Alanbrooke, has anyone else made the effort ?
I attempted one on aviation and Brexit (because most political journalists were getting it completely wrong) but it quickly descended into an alphabet soup of acronyms and inside terminology, yet still ran to well over 1,000 words!
By the way, there’s now agreement between U.K. and EU that, even in the event of a crash-out no-deal, there would still be a transition period for aviation that would prevent planes and pilots from being grounded.0 -
Haven't you ruined enough threads recently ....TheScreamingEagles said:I really miss David Cameron.
I may spend the rest of today rendering my garments.
I'll get my cape ....
0 -
Very true. True of James O'Brien, as well.Nigel_Foremain said:
The problem is that most people claiming to be journalists, including Johnson himself, are not journalists but self-aggrandising polemicists.Scott_P said:0 -
She’ll probably write Olly Robbins on the ballot paperGIN1138 said:
Given how long it took her to promote Rory The Tory to the Cabinet I doubt she'd be voting for him to be leader/PM etc.JackW said:Sky News - Theresa May about to vote.
Beth Rigby suspects she'll go for Hunt or Stewart.
Think she'd be a Hunt man (woman)1 -
Well said. Don't forget though, that to any fanatic, if you do not share their simplistic view of the world you are kufir, and must be the enemy. No surrender!JosiasJessop said:
There is a considerable difference between Europhile (e.g. Clarke), Eurosceptic (Major, Cameron) and Europhobe (Davis, JRM, etc).Wulfrun_Phil said:
Let's not forget Major's duplicity when portraying himself as the Eurosceptic candidate in order to win the leadership over Heseltine and Hurd in 1990.JackW said:BBC - Website :
Former Prime Minister Sir John Major has hit out at Tory leadership candidates suggesting they could suspend - or prorogue - Parliament in order to get through a no-deal Brexit.
Both Dominic Raab and Esther McVey have not ruled out the prospect.
But Sir John said to even suggest it was "dangerous territory" and that he could not imagine previous prime ministers "putting Parliament aside" to get through a "difficult policy".
He told the Chatham House London conference: "It is fundamentally unconstitutional, and to hear that argument come from people who in the Brexit debate talked of the sovereignty of Parliament being at stake, it is not only fundamentally distasteful, it is hypocrisy on a gold-plated standard."
Sir John said he did not think the House of Commons "will allow it to stand".
He adds: "To be absolutely frank, I don't think anyone who proposes [it] or even lets it flit through their mind for a second has any understanding of what Parliament is about, what sovereignty is about, what leadership is about or what the United Kingdom is about.
"And the sooner the House of Commons stamp on this idea, absolutely comprehensively and forever, the better."0 -
He’s pig-ignorant then. In HK a couple of months ago, the SCMP, a nominally free(ish) newspaper had three pages of photographs of Xi visiting HK (I think) and being welcomed by one and all,Scott_P said:0 -
Even odder that he apparently wanted to go.Theuniondivvie said:The Saj unhappy about non invite, with some justification it would appear.
https://twitter.com/Jacqui_Smith1/status/11391053484706734080 -
-
"Tories would be mad not to choose Boris for leader – no one else comes close."Sean_F said:
Very true. True of James O'Brien, as well.Nigel_Foremain said:
The problem is that most people claiming to be journalists, including Johnson himself, are not journalists but self-aggrandising polemicists.Scott_P said:
"After Boris's pitch perfect performance, the leadership contest is over."
Both headlines from the same paper, yesterday. Guess which.0 -
The morons saying it for they should know better. The morons who believe it just want their lives to continue as before...RochdalePioneers said:
You may have missed my dripping sarcasm. Or maybe not...!eek said:
You are more generous than me, I have a blanket policy that I won't work with them ever again..RochdalePioneers said:With regards to not paying the money owed to the EU and just walking away. Dunno about you lot but as a contract negotiator I always give better deals to untrustworthy people who default on their obligations
Exactly the point though. No deal supporters imagine a world where we waltz away from our EU obligations owing cash and creating havoc, and then waltz up to the big trading nations who also trade with the EU and say "you can trust us. We know we just shafted your partner and we know we are now hugely smaller in size and less important. But you absolutely will give us a much better deal than the one we just defaulted on because we survived the blitz."
I don't know who scares me the most. The morons saying it? Or the millions of morons out there who believe it.
Equally I don't believe sarcasm works on morons you need to spell things out in small words, step by step by step...0 -
Pandering to Donald Trump's racism is a new low for this country, but it is something we will have to get used to when Johnson becomes PM.Stark_Dawning said:
Were they worried that Donald might have mistaken him for Sadiq?Theuniondivvie said:The Saj unhappy about non invite, with some justification it would appear.
https://twitter.com/Jacqui_Smith1/status/1139105348470673408
0 -
It would be interesting to see that SCMP piece. I wonder if the text was as gushingly sycophantic as Pearson'smatt said:
He’s pig-ignorant then. In HK a couple of months ago, the SCMP, a nominally free(ish) newspaper had three pages of photographs of Xi visiting HK (I think) and being welcomed by one and all,Scott_P said:
0 -
-
How anyone can say Boris Johnson is a "One Nation" Conservative completely beats me. He is in favour of the maddest, most right wing policy (No Deal) ever inflicted on this country, certainly in the last 100 years. This policy will wreck communities just to appease the ignorant and the bigoted, and is likely to result in the break up of the Union. One Nation my backside!0
-
Beyond issues of detail, the broad failing of the thread is that it assumes that the absence of any agreement on 1st November 2019, beyond the significant obligations of each party under WTO terms, would continue to 31st December 2019, into 2020 and beyond.
In practice it is almost inconceivable that the UK and EU will fail to reach some agreement of mutual benefit to both parties sometime after 1st November, once the question of the UK leaving has been settled and a default position which suits neither is in place. I think that would come about relatively quickly in practice. The main issue is how long the EU would wish to try and continue to punish the UK for its temerity at the expense of its states trading interests and the hole left in its own finances. There would in practice be enormous pressure from member states to try and reach a reasonable accommodation with the UK, once the hardline strategy designed to dissuade the UK from leaving were seen to have irrevocably failed.1 -
Just done a YouGov Tory membership poll on the leadership and lots of supplementaries.0
-
Absolute la la land.Wulfrun_Phil said:Beyond issues of detail, the broad failing of the thread is that it assumes that the absence of any agreement on 1st November 2019, beyond the significant obligations of each party under WTO terms, would continue to 31st December 2019, into 2020 and beyond.
In practice it is almost inconceivable that the UK and EU will fail to reach some agreement of mutual benefit to both parties sometime after 1st November, once the question of the UK leaving has been settled and a default position which suits neither is in place. I think that would come about relatively quickly in practice. The main issue is how long the EU would wish to try and continue to punish the UK for its temerity at the expense of its states trading interests and the hole left in its own finances. There would in practice be enormous pressure from member states to try and reach a reasonable accommodation with the UK, once the hardline strategy designed to dissuade the UK from leaving were seen to have irrevocably failed.0 -
I think Rory will do surprisingly well today and I treat his plea for votes in The Sun yesterday as a ploy to boost up numbers. I still think McVey will squeak through to the second round and might have a possible path further if Raab blows up and Leadsom gets knocked out, and she is left as the only possible pro-Brexit alternative to Boris.Nigelb said:
Well you did also predict, by implication, Rory Stewart's candidature.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Thank you Nigel. I'm glad you didn't put the link to the one where I recommended backing Esther McVeyNigelb said:
Fair point.Sandpit said:Nigelb said:
I'll admit snark is tempting, but I'm genuinely interested.eek said:
Because Brexit means Brexit is both a rather short header and neither reasoned nor coherent...Nigelb said:
I agree; it's an interesting question.isam said:
I’ve answered that question several times on this thread, but is it really whingeing to point out the imbalance?OllyT said:
Why don't you write one yourself instead of whingingisam said:Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
I merely enquired if there had been any, and now @TheScreamingEagles has confirmed: Two in the last 1500 days/4500 threads or so, and none for three years, (written by a leaver that is pro mass immigration, so not entirely representative of leave voters I’d say)
There is no real impediment to anyone presenting a reasoned and coherent case, so why are such headers so rare ?
It would actually be fun trying to right a coherent rational for a No Deal Brexit - I'm curious to see how far I would actually get which I suspect wouldn't be that far. I also suspect any Brexiters would really dislike it.
Apart from apparently isam, and Alanbrooke, has anyone else made the effort ?
As an exercise I scrolled back through the last three months of headers, and the bulk are by our eminent host, TSE, Alastair Meeks, Cyclefree and David Herdson, with some by Harry Hayfield and Sunil.
The regulars are regular, because they both willing to contribute and rather good at doing so.
This one was quite prescient...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/01/con-leadership-betting-analysis-this-is-less-about-brexit-and-more-about-personal-characteristics/0 -
Morning all,AndyJS said:I'm not sure Leadsom can get 17 votes. She could be knocked out of the race in 2 hours and 10 minutes.
So in this contest, there's a minimum threshold of votes, not just the last-placed candidate obliged to withdraw?0 -
-
Only three ?matt said:
He’s pig-ignorant then. In HK a couple of months ago, the SCMP, a nominally free(ish) newspaper had three pages of photographs of Xi visiting HK (I think) and being welcomed by one and all,Scott_P said:
The Telegraph expect you to pay for it, too...
Telegraph front page
“Boris the clear frontrunner..”
PREMIUM
The Tories need a leader who can break the mould. Boris is their only choice
NICK TIMOTHY
PREMIUM
Tory MPs must not deny party members the chance to vote for Boris
TELEGRAPH VIEW
PREMIUM
Tories would be mad not to choose Boris for leader – no one else comes close
ALLISON PEARSON
PREMIUM
Boris and Sajid prove the power of embracing true conservatism
ALLISTER HEATH0 -
The same one that pays him £5k a column?Ishmael_Z said:
"Tories would be mad not to choose Boris for leader – no one else comes close."Sean_F said:
Very true. True of James O'Brien, as well.Nigel_Foremain said:
The problem is that most people claiming to be journalists, including Johnson himself, are not journalists but self-aggrandising polemicists.Scott_P said:
"After Boris's pitch perfect performance, the leadership contest is over."
Both headlines from the same paper, yesterday. Guess which.0 -
I've been reading PB since at least 2009, but I've only written 5 articles, and one of those was a two-parter:Nigelb said:
Fair point.Sandpit said:Leaving aside people’s particular views on the EU question, writing articles is definitely more difficult than it appears, so well done to those who do.
I attempted one on aviation and Brexit (because most political journalists were getting it completely wrong) but it quickly descended into an alphabet soup of acronyms and inside terminology, yet still ran to well over 1,000 words!
As an exercise I scrolled back through the last three months of headers, and the bulk are by our eminent host, TSE, Alastair Meeks, Cyclefree and David Herdson, with some by Harry Hayfield and Sunil.
The regulars are regular, because they both willing to contribute and rather good at doing so.
This one was quite prescient...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/01/con-leadership-betting-analysis-this-is-less-about-brexit-and-more-about-personal-characteristics/
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/10/sunils-by-election-analysis-which-partys-has-done-best-and-which-worst-in-current-parliament/
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/21/is-it-bye-bye-to-by-elections/
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/27/bye-bye-by-elections-part-2-mps-who-resigned-their-seats-and-stood-in-the-ensuing-by-election/
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/20/putting-thursday-into-context-a-look-back-at-previous-uk-euro-elections/
0 -
5% in the first round and rising in subsequent rounds. Expect days of debate on whether to round up or down if a candidate is stuck on the threshold.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Morning all,AndyJS said:I'm not sure Leadsom can get 17 votes. She could be knocked out of the race in 2 hours and 10 minutes.
So in this contest, there's a minimum threshold of votes, not just the last-placed candidate obliged to withdraw?0 -
The Candidate with the fewest votes and candidates with fewer than 17 votes as appropriate.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Morning all,AndyJS said:I'm not sure Leadsom can get 17 votes. She could be knocked out of the race in 2 hours and 10 minutes.
So in this contest, there's a minimum threshold of votes, not just the last-placed candidate obliged to withdraw?0 -
We will be part of the Special Racist Relationship. It could become a Racist Triumvirate if they got Putin or Farage (interchangeable) involvedSouthamObserver said:
Pandering to Donald Trump's racism is a new low for this country, but it is something we will have to get used to when Johnson becomes PM.Stark_Dawning said:
Were they worried that Donald might have mistaken him for Sadiq?Theuniondivvie said:The Saj unhappy about non invite, with some justification it would appear.
https://twitter.com/Jacqui_Smith1/status/11391053484706734080 -
Rationally I ought to press my bets. Trouble is, everything is so nicely balanced as they are.0
