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While that's true, the Treasury Briefing Papers make it clear that we did so because the UK banks had metric shit tonnes of exposure to Ireland, and it was cheaper to bail the Irish out.notme2 said:And ironically it was the UK that gave Ireland no strings attached support during the financial crisis above and beyond the EU 'more strings than a series of thunderbirds' did.
It was self interest, not altruism, that led to us writing checks.0 -
It's not what we want. We want to uphold the GFA (which requires cross-border co-operation and consent not unilateral domination) too.Gallowgate said:
It's not unthinkable, it's just not what they want. They have made one of their red lines the upholding the Good Friday Agreement. God forbid.Philip_Thompson said:
They'd still be in the EU in a 'deal but no backstop' scenario too. But that is apparently unthinkable.Gallowgate said:
Because as @Benpointer said, they will still be in the EU in a 'no deal' scenario. How are you not seeing the difference?Philip_Thompson said:Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't every single one of the following said they'd rather have No Deal than compromise on the backstop?
Varadkar
Barnier
Juncker
Verhofstadt
Merkel
Macron
The European Union
Ireland
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czechia
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
They have all said they would have no deal before they back down over the backstop haven't they?
If every single one of those would unanimously prefer No Deal than to back down over the backstop then why is it so terribly unreasonable to add just one more name to the list:
The United Kingdom
Deal or no deal leavers like myself are not acting any different to the EU in our beliefs.0 -
What a grim dystopian world that would be.Benpointer said:
Hopefully, one day the idea of having any patriotic feeling at all will fade._Anazina_ said:
It’s not just that. The rapidity into which we are moving to a cashless society means many people don’t even set eyes on cash from week to week, undermining the sentimental attachment. This will only grow. One day, the idea of having any patriotic feeling towards money you never see will seem utterly perverse.williamglenn said:Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.
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About that Brexit Party surge that was going to take Peterborough then the country?Scott_P said:0 -
Wiki had him previously down for Raab. Dominic getting crushed by the 800 lb gorilla called Boris in the room.kle4 said:
His likely reason for doing so being shown in his preceding tweet relating to a forthcoming by-election (which the Tories might unexpectedly lose btw) he has been helping out with.AndyJS said:Another one for Boris:
https://twitter.com/AWMurrison/status/1138520005660856326
https://twitter.com/AWMurrison/status/1137853054299062272
It builds momentum for Boris.
it's Bomentum.0 -
And you'd be totally wrong, wouldn't you?Foxy said:
The Greeks are rather pro-EU. They know that it was their own politicians that fucked up.Byronic said:
Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".Benpointer said:
Don't forget that Ireland (GDP c. $0.4tn) will be supported by the EU (GDP $20tn) to mitigate the effects of No Deal.Byronic said:
Yes. fore.Benpointer said:
Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
Yeahroblem? Or is he bluffing?Mysticrose said:
That'sPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomimeMysticrose said:
This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me sayingPhilip_Thompson said:
We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
Which does not include the backstop...viewcode said:
And yet we signed the GFA...Sandpit said:
Indeed they are - against the British.not_on_fire said:
.Sandpit said:williamglenn said:
.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
etc. etc.
The UK will be supported by... er, no one else.
The Greeks are, by a significant margin, the most anti-EU nation in the EU, in fact they are way more hostile to Brussels than the Brits, who are leaving. The Greeks dislike the EU, and its parliament, two to one.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/03/19/europeans-credit-eu-with-promoting-peace-and-prosperity-but-say-brussels-is-out-of-touch-with-its-citizens/
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*Shakes head*rcs1000 said:
While that's true, the Treasury Briefing Papers make it clear that we did so because the UK banks had metric shit tonnes of exposure to Ireland, and it was cheaper to bail the Irish out.notme2 said:And ironically it was the UK that gave Ireland no strings attached support during the financial crisis above and beyond the EU 'more strings than a series of thunderbirds' did.
It was self interest, not altruism, that led to us writing checks.
Cheques, not checks.0 -
Notice the SNP on 59 seats!TGOHF said:
This poll is built on sand. I doubt the Tories could win a majority in the UK parliament from England and Wales alone at the moment.0 -
Sounds a load of tosh to me. And funded by the Telegraph, Boris house journal.TGOHF said:0 -
Tories are due their Boris boost shortly...TheScreamingEagles said:
About that Brexit Party surge that was going to take Peterborough then the country?Scott_P said:0 -
If ComRes is even remotely right, which I doubt, then large numbers of people in the country seem intent on committing economic suicide.
Bonkers.
We have truly lost the plot as a nation.
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56 seats.The_Taxman said:
Notice the SNP on 59 seats!TGOHF said:
This poll is built on sand. I doubt the Tories could win a majority in the UK parliament from England and Wales alone at the moment.
The 59 includes Plaid Cymru.0 -
Yes, I am very doubtful too. Nonetheless it will have a serious impact. I suspect any Tory MP worried for their seat and political career (i.e. all of them) will look at this and think, What the hell, let's do it.rottenborough said:
Sounds a load of tosh to me. And funded by the Telegraph, Boris house journal.TGOHF said:0 -
Someone’s been spending too much time hanging out with Americans.TheScreamingEagles said:
*Shakes head*rcs1000 said:
While that's true, the Treasury Briefing Papers make it clear that we did so because the UK banks had metric shit tonnes of exposure to Ireland, and it was cheaper to bail the Irish out.notme2 said:And ironically it was the UK that gave Ireland no strings attached support during the financial crisis above and beyond the EU 'more strings than a series of thunderbirds' did.
It was self interest, not altruism, that led to us writing checks.
Cheques, not checks.
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Keegan needs to be corrected on Wiki. My guess she was going to go for Rory proved correct.0
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There didn't seem much point in responding to @Byronic because the situation the Greeks found themselves in (of their own making, at loggerheads with the EU) is the polar opposite to the one the Irish would be in in the event of a No Deal (impacted by their loyal support for the EU line).Foxy said:
The Greeks are rather pro-EU. They know that it was their own politicians that fucked up.Byronic said:
Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".Benpointer said:
Don't forget that Ireland (GDP c. $0.4tn) will be supported by the EU (GDP $20tn) to mitigate the effects of No Deal.Byronic said:
Yes. But it is also fair to point out that 85% of Irish trade goes via the UK. If No Deal is that disastrous for Britain, then surely it would be calamitous to Ireland. Yet they happily contemplate it.Benpointer said:
Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
Yeah and they said the exact same bollocks before the Brexit referendum too. "Nothing has changed."Mysticrose said:Philip_Thompson said:Mysticrose said:Philip_Thompson said:viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
.viewcode said:
.Sandpit said:not_on_fire said:
.Sandpit said:williamglenn said:
.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?
So either they are bluffing and lying, and are hoping we fold, or No Deal really isn't that bad.
I genuinely don't know the answer. Perhaps no one does? A major No Deal exit from the EU has, after all, never happened before.
The UK will be supported by... er, no one else.
Ireland will be rightly protected from the worst impacts of No Deal. The UK however will have to deal with thevself-inflicted gunshot wound to foot on it's own - and it will be painful.0 -
...0
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That's if he even gets as far as the Palace and the kissing of hands bit.TGOHF said:The fun upside if Boris does win is that his honeymoon period has a best before date of 31st October .
May wasn’t despised for nearly 2 years.0 -
Thanks i had not picked that up. Still the Tory performance north of the border would mean even if Johnson did as well as May in England and Wales a worse result than 2017!TheScreamingEagles said:
56 seats.The_Taxman said:
Notice the SNP on 59 seats!TGOHF said:
This poll is built on sand. I doubt the Tories could win a majority in the UK parliament from England and Wales alone at the moment.
The 59 includes Plaid Cymru.0 -
I think most Tory MPs barring the ERG nutjobs and no dealers aren’t going to be duped by one poll .
A no deal delivered by Bozo will see the Tories punished at the next election .0 -
As I was saying earlier..Boris would win the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher 1983 on that poll and the Brexit Party vote would almost completely collapse, though even I would still think that a bit over optimisticTGOHF said:0 -
Vote Rory get Nigel.Scott_P said:
Vote Boris get Nigel’s policies?
The poll illustrates how crazy and perverse our electoral system is when you have four parties polling above 15 or 20% And that is before we factor in the Greens SNP and Plaid.0 -
Wow, I thought just that! Go Rory!Scott_P said:0 -
And Ireland’s reward for all this is going to be to get utterly shafted by the EU over multinational corporation tax.Benpointer said:
There didn't seem much point in responding to @Byronic because the situation the Greeks found themselves in (of their own making, at loggerheads with the EU) is the polar opposite to the one the Irish would be in in the event of a No Deal (impacted by their loyal support for the EU line).Foxy said:
The Greeks are rather pro-EU. They know that it was their own politicians that fucked up.Byronic said:
Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".Benpointer said:
Don't forget that Ireland (GDP c. $0.4tn) will be supported by the EU (GDP $20tn) to mitigate the effects of No Deal.Byronic said:
Yes. But it is also fair to point out that 85% of Irish trade goes via the UK. If No Deal is that disastrous for Britain, then surely it would be calamitous to Ireland. Yet they happily contemplate it.Benpointer said:
Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
Yeah and they said the exact same bollocks before the Brexit referendum too. "Nothing has changed."Mysticrose said:Philip_Thompson said:Mysticrose said:Philip_Thompson said:viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?
So either they are bluffing and lying, and are hoping we fold, or No Deal really isn't that bad.
I genuinely don't know the answer. Perhaps no one does? A major No Deal exit from the EU has, after all, never happened before.
The UK will be supported by... er, no one else.
Ireland will be rightly protected from the worst impacts of No Deal. The UK however will have to deal with thevself-inflicted gunshot wound to foot on it's own - and it will be painful.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-japan-tax/g20-agrees-to-push-ahead-with-digital-tax-communique-idUSKCN1T903D0 -
It will confirm supporters, and persuade a few doubters, at a time when Boris is getting the first proper flak (for avoiding scrutiny). I imagine his team is quietly delighted. The Telegraph wants its guy in Number 10._Anazina_ said:0 -
Not that it matters (I’m all for multiple screen names!) but just out of interest, are you the poster formerly known as SeanT? Similar style of writing, I note.Byronic said:
And you'd be totally wrong, wouldn't you?Foxy said:
The Greeks are rather pro-EU. They know that it was their own politicians that fucked up.Byronic said:
Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".Benpointer said:
Don't forget that Ireland (GDP c. $0.4tn) will be supported by the EU (GDP $20tn) to mitigate the effects of No Deal.Byronic said:
Yes. fore.Benpointer said:
Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
Yeahroblem? Or is he bluffing?Mysticrose said:
That'sPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomimeMysticrose said:
This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me sayingPhilip_Thompson said:
We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
Which does not include the backstop...viewcode said:
And yet we signed the GFA...Sandpit said:
Indeed they are - against the British.not_on_fire said:
.Sandpit said:williamglenn said:
.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
etc. etc.
The UK will be supported by... er, no one else.
The Greeks are, by a significant margin, the most anti-EU nation in the EU, in fact they are way more hostile to Brussels than the Brits, who are leaving. The Greeks dislike the EU, and its parliament, two to one.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/03/19/europeans-credit-eu-with-promoting-peace-and-prosperity-but-say-brussels-is-out-of-touch-with-its-citizens/0 -
Punished? They will be wiped out.nico67 said:I think most Tory MPs barring the ERG nutjobs and no dealers aren’t going to be duped by one poll .
A no deal delivered by Bozo will see the Tories punished at the next election .
They are between Scylla and Charybdis. No Deal is wipe out. No Brexit by next GE is near wipe out. They have to extended and delay the election until they can find a way to get a deal through the commons.0 -
Large parts of country aren't wetting themselves at the idea of controlling our own destiny.rottenborough said:If ComRes is even remotely right, which I doubt, then large numbers of people in the country seem intent on committing economic suicide.
Bonkers.
We have truly lost the plot as a nation.0 -
I think we have been through this debate._Anazina_ said:
Not that it matters (I’m all for multiple screen names!) but just out of interest, are you the poster formerly known as SeanT? Similar style of writing, I note.Byronic said:
And you'd be totally wrong, wouldn't you?Foxy said:
The Greeks are rather pro-EU. They know that it was their own politicians that fucked up.Byronic said:
Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".Benpointer said:
Don't forget that Ireland (GDP c. $0.4tn) will be supported by the EU (GDP $20tn) to mitigate the effects of No Deal.Byronic said:
Yes. fore.Benpointer said:
Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
Yeahroblem? Or is he bluffing?Mysticrose said:
That'sPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomimeMysticrose said:
This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me sayingPhilip_Thompson said:
We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
Which does not include the backstop...viewcode said:
And yet we signed the GFA...Sandpit said:
Indeed they are - against the British.not_on_fire said:
.Sandpit said:williamglenn said:
.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
etc. etc.
The UK will be supported by... er, no one else.
The Greeks are, by a significant margin, the most anti-EU nation in the EU, in fact they are way more hostile to Brussels than the Brits, who are leaving. The Greeks dislike the EU, and its parliament, two to one.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/03/19/europeans-credit-eu-with-promoting-peace-and-prosperity-but-say-brussels-is-out-of-touch-with-its-citizens/
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It’s not patriotism. The UK and the EU are not an OCA. That can be overcome via internal fiscal transfers but there isn't the political will_Anazina_ said:
It’s not just that. The rapidity into which we are moving to a cashless society means many people don’t even set eyes on cash from week to week, undermining the sentimental attachment. This will only grow. One day, the idea of having any patriotic feeling towards money you never see will seem utterly perverse.williamglenn said:Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.
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Where are the Irish saying they'd happily contemplate No Deal?Byronic said:
Yes. But it is also fair to point out that 85% of Irish trade goes via the UK. If No Deal is that disastrous for Britain, then surely it would be calamitous to Ireland. Yet they happily contemplate it.
So either they are bluffing and lying, and are hoping we fold, or No Deal really isn't that bad.
I genuinely don't know the answer. Perhaps no one does? A major No Deal exit from the EU has, after all, never happened before.
They're consistently saying it would be terrible. However, they also think that a deal without a proper solution on the border would be very bad, probably leading to a hard border either immediately or by stealth - and the latter is particularly bad, as they'll have lost leverage once the EU negotiations are over. And they think, correctly IMHO, that if they stand firm and the EU stands behind them, the British will fold. The worst case is that the British will crash out, causing serious temporary disruption, then go back to the EU for a deal, and the EU will say, "sure, but first we need you to agree to Ireland's demands on the border (and citizens' rights, and the exit bill)".
This isn't a bluff, as we'll see if the British try to call it.1 -
What was May's predicted majority before the 2017 election?
Asking for a friend...0 -
I refer the Honourable Member for Duh to my multiple previous answers, etc etc. This bores everyone. I won't answer again._Anazina_ said:
Not that it matters (I’m all for multiple screen names!) but just out of interest, are you the poster formerly known as SeanT? Similar style of writing, I note.Byronic said:
And t-say-brussels-is-out-of-touch-with-its-citizens/Foxy said:
The Greeks are rather pro-EU. They know that it was their own politicians that fucked up.Byronic said:
Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".Benpointer said:
Don'tno one else.Byronic said:
Yes. fore.Benpointer said:
Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
Yeahroblem? Or is he bluffing?Mysticrose said:
That'sPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomimeMysticrose said:
This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me sayingPhilip_Thompson said:
We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
Which does not include the backstop...viewcode said:
And yet we signed the GFA...Sandpit said:
Indeed they are - against the British.not_on_fire said:
.Sandpit said:williamglenn said:
.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
etc. etc.0 -
294.Scott_P said:What was May's predicted majority before the 2017 election?
Asking for a friend...0 -
Rory Stewart Tories would be pounded like Kim Campbell's Progressive Conservatives.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Confirms my theory earlier too that while Labour and LD voters may vote Rory 0 will vote for him while Tory voters flock en masse to the Brexit Party. The Tories fall to 5th under Rory behind the Brexit Party, Labour, the LDs and SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:
Astonishing too the difference a candidate's Brexit Party stance makes. The Tories trail Labour under Gove, Hunt, Stewart and Javid all of whom would see Corbyn PM of a Labour minority government with SNP and Labour support with the Brexit Party winning 64-123 seats and under Rory the Brexit Party wins over 200 seats to become largest party.
Raab would see the Tories' largest party but it would still be a Corbyn minority government with SNP and LD support as the Brexit Party vote still holds up a bit. Boris though produces a Tory landslide due to the BP collapse.
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Yes, you could be right. My point is more that no one REALLY knows, as Brexit is sui generis times ten. This goes for the EU as much as the UK.edmundintokyo said:
Where are the Irish saying they'd happily contemplate No Deal?Byronic said:
Yes. But it is also fair to point out that 85% of Irish trade goes via the UK. If No Deal is that disastrous for Britain, then surely it would be calamitous to Ireland. Yet they happily contemplate it.
So either they are bluffing and lying, and are hoping we fold, or No Deal really isn't that bad.
I genuinely don't know the answer. Perhaps no one does? A major No Deal exit from the EU has, after all, never happened before.
They're consistently saying it would be terrible. However, they also think that a deal without a proper solution on the border would be very bad, probably leading to a hard border either immediately or by stealth - and the latter is particularly bad, as they'll have lost leverage once the EU negotiations are over. And they think, correctly IMHO, that if they stand firm and the EU stands behind them, the British will fold. The worst case is that the British will crash out, causing serious temporary disruption, then go back to the EU for a deal, and the EU will say, "sure, but first we need you to agree to Ireland's demands on the border (and citizens' rights, and the exit bill)".
This isn't a bluff, as we'll see if the British try to call it.
The EU is making a judgement call, they do not know for sure.
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In the latest Eurobarometer 54% of Greeks thought their country benefited from the EU, with 40% against:Byronic said:
And you'd be totally wrong, wouldn't you?Foxy said:
The Greeks are rather pro-EU. They know that it was their own politicians that fucked up.Byronic said:
Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".Benpointer said:
Don't forget that Ireland (GDP c. $0.4tn) will be supported by the EU (GDP $20tn) to mitigate the effects of No Deal.Byronic said:
Yes. fore.Benpointer said:
Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
Yeahroblem? Or is he bluffing?Mysticrose said:
That'sPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomimeMysticrose said:
This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me sayingPhilip_Thompson said:
We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
Which does not include the backstop...viewcode said:
And yet we signed the GFA...Sandpit said:
Indeed they are - against the British.not_on_fire said:
.Sandpit said:williamglenn said:
.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
etc. etc.
The UK will be supported by... er, no one else.
The Greeks are, by a significant margin, the most anti-EU nation in the EU, in fact they are way more hostile to Brussels than the Brits, who are leaving. The Greeks dislike the EU, and its parliament, two to one.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/03/19/europeans-credit-eu-with-promoting-peace-and-prosperity-but-say-brussels-is-out-of-touch-with-its-citizens/
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/resources/library/images/20181019PHT16655/20181019PHT16655_original.png0 -
and what better way to do that than your "disaster"?Byronic said:
Sure, but that doesn't exonerate them. What I'm saying - what I have belatedly realised - is that Brexit is a tragic and terrible failure of the entire British political system - left and right, europhile AND eurosceptic. The lies and cowardice of the "europhile" elite got us to the lost referendum, the lies and idiocy of the Brexiteers have taken us from there to the brink of disaster.williamglenn said:
True, but the problem is that those ‘Europhiles’ weren’t really Europhiles, otherwise they’d have believed in the case for taking Britain to the heart of the project and in their ability to sell it. Once Blair chickened out of holding a referendum on the Euro, none of them thought it was possible.Byronic said:
But you could say exactly the same, and with more venom, about the europhile "governing classes" who consistently promised and then denied the people a referendum - believing there would be no consequences: no price to be paid for their lies.williamglenn said:
The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.rcs1000 said:
Sadly, I think you may be right.williamglenn said:Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.
There were consequences. The consequence of their mendacity was Brexit. We are all guilty.
The rotting physical state of Pugin's Westminster Parliament is an apt metaphor. The whole British Establishment needs taking down, and rewiring.0 -
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1138559058686939138
Those numbers don't look like a majority...0 -
Lis Truss has clearly shown that she qualifies for being labelled 'a Trollop'. As for ' bastards' , that is surely a matter of law. I have nothing whatsoever against them - and never have. I do remain very critical of their parents.TheScreamingEagles said:
Says the man who calls people trollops and bastards.justin124 said:I must say I do like Rory Stewart - but he seems far too decent a human being to be a Tory.
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I wasn’t here, sorry. I didn’t see your answers or I wouldn’t have asked, would I?Byronic said:
I refer the Honourable Member for Duh to my multiple previous answers, etc etc. This bores everyone. I won't answer again._Anazina_ said:
Not that it matters (I’m all for multiple screen names!) but just out of interest, are you the poster formerly known as SeanT? Similar style of writing, I note.Byronic said:
And t-say-brussels-is-out-of-touch-with-its-citizens/Foxy said:
The Greeks are rather pro-EU. They know that it was their own politicians that fucked up.Byronic said:
Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".Benpointer said:
Don'tno one else.Byronic said:
Yes. fore.Benpointer said:
Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
Yeahroblem? Or is he bluffing?Mysticrose said:
That'sPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomimeMysticrose said:
This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me sayingPhilip_Thompson said:
We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
Which does not include the backstop...viewcode said:
And yet we signed the GFA...Sandpit said:
Indeed they are - against the British.not_on_fire said:
.Sandpit said:williamglenn said:
.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
etc. etc.0 -
That's a different question. You said the Greeks were "rather pro-EU", they are definitely not. They dislike the EU, by two to one - they are more hostile than the Brexiting Britons. The Greeks may feel they "benefit" from the EU, but I feel I benefit from the rainy British weather, inasmuch as it waters the crops.Foxy said:
In the latest Eurobarometer 54% of Greeks thought their country benefited from the EU, with 40% against:Byronic said:
AndFoxy said:
The Greeks are rather pro-EU. They know that it was their own politicians that fucked up.Byronic said:
Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".Benpointer said:
Don't forget that Ireland (GDP c. $0.4tn) will be supported by the EU (GDP $20tn) to mitigate the effects of No Deal.Byronic said:
Yes. fore.Benpointer said:
Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
Yeahroblem? Or is he bluffing?Mysticrose said:
That'sPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomimeMysticrose said:
This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me sayingPhilip_Thompson said:
We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
Which does not include the backstop...viewcode said:
And yet we signed the GFA...Sandpit said:
Indeed they are - against the British.not_on_fire said:
.Sandpit said:williamglenn said:
.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
etc. etc.
The UK will be supported by... er, no one else.
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/resources/library/images/20181019PHT16655/20181019PHT16655_original.png0 -
No, actually, none of this is true; it is all conjecture and speculation.HYUFD said:
Confirms my theory earlier too that while Labour and LD voters may vote Rory 0 will vote for him while Tory voters flock en masse to the Brexit Party. The Tories fall to 5th under Rory behind the Brexit Party, Labour, the LDs and SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:
Astonishing too the difference a candidate's Brexit Party stance makes. The Tories trail Labour under Gove, Hunt, Stewart and Javid all of whom would see Corbyn PM of a Labour minority government with SNP and Labour support with the Brexit Party winning 64-123 seats and under Rory the Brexit Party wins over 200 seats to become largest party.
Raab would see the Tories' largest party but it would still be a Corbyn minority government with SNP and LD support as the Brexit Party vote still holds up a bit. Boris though produces a Tory landslide due to the BP collapse.0 -
Well that kicks the avoid general election leg off Remainers stool...
No more Cooper-Boles. Or Cooper or Boles 0 -
Nope! Fair dos. Apologies if I was sharp. I just want to spare everyone else a tediously repeated debate._Anazina_ said:
I wasn’t here, sorry. I didn’t see your answers or I wouldn’t have asked, would I?Byronic said:
I refer the Honourable Member for Duh to my multiple previous answers, etc etc. This bores everyone. I won't answer again._Anazina_ said:
Not that it matters (I’m all for multiple screen names!) but just out of interest, are you the poster formerly known as SeanT? Similar style of writing, I note.Byronic said:
And t-say-brussels-is-out-of-touch-with-its-citizens/Foxy said:
The Greeks are rather pro-EU. They know that it was their own politicians that fucked up.Byronic said:
Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".Benpointer said:
Don'tno one else.Byronic said:
Yes. fore.Benpointer said:
Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
Yeahroblem? Or is he bluffing?Mysticrose said:
That'sPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomimeMysticrose said:
This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me sayingPhilip_Thompson said:
We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
Which does not include the backstop...viewcode said:
And yet we signed the GFA...Sandpit said:
Indeed they are - against the British.not_on_fire said:
.Sandpit said:williamglenn said:
.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
etc. etc.0 -
What if the British crash out, causing some temporary disruption, then life goes on and the British don't go back to the EU on bended knees? Remember the British will have only gone out under a government that was prepared to act that way and determined to see it succeed - and with a major vested interest to see it succeed without caving.edmundintokyo said:
Where are the Irish saying they'd happily contemplate No Deal?Byronic said:
Yes. But it is also fair to point out that 85% of Irish trade goes via the UK. If No Deal is that disastrous for Britain, then surely it would be calamitous to Ireland. Yet they happily contemplate it.
So either they are bluffing and lying, and are hoping we fold, or No Deal really isn't that bad.
I genuinely don't know the answer. Perhaps no one does? A major No Deal exit from the EU has, after all, never happened before.
They're consistently saying it would be terrible. However, they also think that a deal without a proper solution on the border would be very bad, probably leading to a hard border either immediately or by stealth - and the latter is particularly bad, as they'll have lost leverage once the EU negotiations are over. And they think, correctly IMHO, that if they stand firm and the EU stands behind them, the British will fold. The worst case is that the British will crash out, causing serious temporary disruption, then go back to the EU for a deal, and the EU will say, "sure, but first we need you to agree to Ireland's demands on the border (and citizens' rights, and the exit bill)".
This isn't a bluff, as we'll see if the British try to call it.0 -
-
No it does nothing of the sort! It is beyond ridiculous, particularly the contrast between Rory and Johnson. Utter nonsense, it looks like Comres have been hacked by the Russians!HYUFD said:
Confirms my theory earlier too that while Labour and LD voters may vote Rory 0 will vote for him while Tory voters flock en masse to the Brexit Party. The Tories fall to 5th under Rory behind the Brexit Party, Labour, the LDs and SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:
Astonishing too the difference a candidate's Brexit Party stance makes. The Tories trail Labour under Gove, Hunt, Stewart and Javid all of whom would see Corbyn PM of a Labour minority government with SNP and Labour support with the Brexit Party winning 64-123 seats and under Rory the Brexit Party wins over 200 seats to become largest party.
Raab would see the Tories' largest party but it would still be a Corbyn minority government with SNP and LD support as the Brexit Party vote still holds up a bit. Boris though produces a Tory landslide due to the BP collapse.0 -
A split left/Remainer vote. Tories romp home. Conservative MPs will be salivating. Probably unwisely.HYUFD said:0 -
That is justHYUFD said: 0 -
-
With all the talk of folding and bluffing lets put it in terms of texas holdem.Byronic said:
Yes. But it is also fair to point out that 85% of Irish trade goes via the UK. If No Deal is that disastrous for Britain, then surely it would be calamitous to Ireland. Yet they happily contemplate it.Benpointer said:
Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?Philip_Thompson said:Mysticrose said:
That'sPhilip_Thompson said:Mysticrose said:
This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me sayingPhilip_Thompson said:
We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
Which does not include the backstop...viewcode said:
And yet we signed the GFA...Sandpit said:
Indeed they are - against the British.not_on_fire said:
.Sandpit said:williamglenn said:
.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
etc. etc.
Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?
So either they are bluffing and lying, and are hoping we fold, or No Deal really isn't that bad.
I genuinely don't know the answer. Perhaps no one does? A major No Deal exit from the EU has, after all, never happened before.
Our hand is 8s5d, theirs is Ks7h, the board is Kd, Qc, Tc
If this was a private negotiation just perhaps we could bluff them off their better hand by showing great strength as the brexiteers implore us to do. In reality because we are negotiating through a hung parliament, they can actually see our hand.
When the PM says we will leave with no deal, they nod politely and say we hope you dont. But actually they know the PM cannot do this as parliament will not let them, and ignore the PMs threats.
The EU/Ireland is not bluffing at all, instead it has seen what our hand is, and therefore they have no need to consider no deal as an outcome.0 -
-
Was that poll conducted among only the johnson family?HYUFD said:0 -
May seems determined to grab some kind of legacy from the ashes of her premiership.
https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1138560843732455425?s=210 -
The end of Boles, as well as Wollaston, Grieves etc under a Boris election will be well worth seeing.TGOHF said:Well that kicks the avoid general election leg off Remainers stool...
No more Cooper-Boles. Or Cooper or Boles0 -
Precisely. Once the temporary 'disruption' is over, why would we go back for a deal exactly? So we could get a transition period to avoid the disruption we'd already gone through?Philip_Thompson said:
What if the British crash out, causing some temporary disruption, then life goes on and the British don't go back to the EU on bended knees? Remember the British will have only gone out under a government that was prepared to act that way and determined to see it succeed - and with a major vested interest to see it succeed without caving.edmundintokyo said:
Where are the Irish saying they'd happily contemplate No Deal?Byronic said:
Yes. But it is also fair to point out that 85% of Irish trade goes via the UK. If No Deal is that disastrous for Britain, then surely it would be calamitous to Ireland. Yet they happily contemplate it.
So either they are bluffing and lying, and are hoping we fold, or No Deal really isn't that bad.
I genuinely don't know the answer. Perhaps no one does? A major No Deal exit from the EU has, after all, never happened before.
They're consistently saying it would be terrible. However, they also think that a deal without a proper solution on the border would be very bad, probably leading to a hard border either immediately or by stealth - and the latter is particularly bad, as they'll have lost leverage once the EU negotiations are over. And they think, correctly IMHO, that if they stand firm and the EU stands behind them, the British will fold. The worst case is that the British will crash out, causing serious temporary disruption, then go back to the EU for a deal, and the EU will say, "sure, but first we need you to agree to Ireland's demands on the border (and citizens' rights, and the exit bill)".
This isn't a bluff, as we'll see if the British try to call it.0 -
-
Er both these two are going to be history in a few weeks. What's the point?williamglenn said:May seems determined to grab some kind of legacy from the ashes of her premiership.
https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1138560843732455425?s=210 -
Naturally it would be the fault of those who opposed a deal and those on either side of the negotiation who negotiated an unattractive deal.Benpointer said:
Here we go...initforthemoney said:
It flows from Remainers' determination to foil Brexit or failing that to reverse it. The sooner the Brexit, the sooner the fear of never leaving is extinguished. The harder the Brexit, the more comprehensive the bridge burning.Gallowgate said:
Ultimately, any sensible, reasoned country would ensure a long transition period to prevent economic shocks. The knee-jerk reaction to leave in October 'COME WHAT MAY' is just insane.
The consequences of a chaotic No Deal exit will all be the fault of Remainers. Welcome to the post-truth world.0 -
Gove seems about as popular as syphilis judging by the replies.TGOHF said:0 -
That is completely wrong, as the EU is not a monolith. What if, for domestic political reasons, and in the midst of British confusion and stasis, Macron decides to veto an extension in October, as he has consistently promised to do? He strikes me as a politician who likes to appear firm (and it always pays to Bash the Brits, for a French Prez).noneoftheabove said:
With all the talk of folding and bluffing lets put it in terms of texas holdem.Byronic said:
Yes. But before.Benpointer said:
Maybe ye the EU?Philip_Thompson said:Mysticrose said:
That'sPhilip_Thompson said:Mysticrose said:
This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me sayingPhilip_Thompson said:
We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
Which does not include the backstop...viewcode said:
And yet we signed the GFA...Sandpit said:
Indeed they are - against the British.not_on_fire said:
.Sandpit said:williamglenn said:
.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
etc. etc.
Meanwhile iuffing?
Our hand is 8s5d, theirs is Ks7h, the board is Kd, Qc, Tc
If this was a private negotiation just perhaps we could bluff them off their better hand by showing great strength as the brexiteers implore us to do. In reality because we are negotiating through a hung parliament, they can actually see our hand.
When the PM says we will leave with no deal, they nod politely and say we hope you dont. But actually they know the PM cannot do this as parliament will not let them, and ignore the PMs threats.
The EU/Ireland is not bluffing at all, instead it has seen what our hand is, and therefore they have no need to consider no deal as an outcome.
Then we No Deal. The British government has the advantage of being one government playing one hand, albeit very weak. The EU has many more cards - but they have many more players, with different interests.
0 -
0
-
Seems like Boris would be mad not to call a snap election. Run on renegotiating the WA (with the implicit threat of No Deal), get a majority and pass the WA. He needs to do it fast, like right away, before he gets rumbled.0
-
No it is true as we have the polling figures now to prove them even if you dislike themBenpointer said:
No, actually, none of this is true; it is all conjecture and speculation.HYUFD said:
Confirms my theory earlier too that while Labour and LD voters may vote Rory 0 will vote for him while Tory voters flock en masse to the Brexit Party. The Tories fall to 5th under Rory behind the Brexit Party, Labour, the LDs and SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:
Astonishing too the difference a candidate's Brexit Party stance makes. The Tories trail Labour under Gove, Hunt, Stewart and Javid all of whom would see Corbyn PM of a Labour minority government with SNP and Labour support with the Brexit Party winning 64-123 seats and under Rory the Brexit Party wins over 200 seats to become largest party.
Raab would see the Tories' largest party but it would still be a Corbyn minority government with SNP and LD support as the Brexit Party vote still holds up a bit. Boris though produces a Tory landslide due to the BP collapse.0 -
That's probably right, going on this poll. Who Dares Wins. Boris might find it irresistible. But it could break his party.edmundintokyo said:Seems like Boris would be mad not to call a snap election. Run on renegotiating the WA (with the implicit threat of No Deal), get a majority and pass the WA. He needs to do it fast, like right away, before he gets rumbled.
0 -
Curious thing about those figures. If Boris becomes leader Labour goes down, but LD figures go up.
Makes no accounting for tactical voting either.
I find it very hard to credit 140 majority on 33% of the vote. That assumes Lab and LD split almost equally. They may do on this poll, but Boris is a marmite figure. Am sure the anti-Boris vote would coalesce in many places.0 -
It would put corbyn in a tricky spot. He gets what he has been asking for, but will have to say what he intends to do if he wins.Byronic said:
That's probably right, going on this poll. Who Dares Wins. Boris might find it irresistible. But it could break his party.edmundintokyo said:Seems like Boris would be mad not to call a snap election. Run on renegotiating the WA (with the implicit threat of No Deal), get a majority and pass the WA. He needs to do it fast, like right away, before he gets rumbled.
0 -
We all maybe surprised by the number of votes he receives in the first round.Scott_P said:0 -
No worries. It doesn’t matter to me anyway (in days gone by multiple screen names were disliked by some, for some inexplicable reason). I was merely interested because the cadence of your writing is similar. I guess I will never know!!Byronic said:
Nope! Fair dos. Apologies if I was sharp. I just want to spare everyone else a tediously repeated debate._Anazina_ said:
I wasn’t here, sorry. I didn’t see your answers or I wouldn’t have asked, would I?Byronic said:
Snip n._Anazina_ said:
SnipByronic said:
And t-say-brussels-is-out-of-touch-with-its-citizens/Foxy said:
The Greeks are rather pro-EU. They know that it was their own politicians that fucked up.Byronic said:
Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".Benpointer said:
Don'tno one else.Byronic said:
Yes. fore.Benpointer said:
Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
Yeahroblem? Or is he bluffing?Mysticrose said:
That'sPhilip_Thompson said:
I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomimeMysticrose said:
This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me sayingPhilip_Thompson said:
We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
Which does not include the backstop...viewcode said:
And yet we signed the GFA...Sandpit said:
Indeed they are - against the British.not_on_fire said:
.Sandpit said:williamglenn said:
.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.
The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
etc. etc.0 -
The exact wording of the policy on Brexit in the Labour manifesto will be key on how much the ‘left’ vote splits in any GE. Does Corbyn have the bottle?0
-
Er, because we really really need a quick and liberal deal with the EU, because it comprises ~50% of our overseas trade.Luckyguy1983 said:
Precisely. Once the temporary 'disruption' is over, why would we go back for a deal exactly? So we could get a transition period to avoid the disruption we'd already gone through?Philip_Thompson said:
What if the British crash out, causing some temporary disruption, then life goes on and the British don't go back to the EU on bended knees? Remember the British will have only gone out under a government that was prepared to act that way and determined to see it succeed - and with a major vested interest to see it succeed without caving.edmundintokyo said:
WhereByronic said:
Yes. But it is also fair to point out that 85% of Irish trade goes via the UK. If No Deal is that disastrous for Britain, then surely it would be calamitous to Ireland. Yet they happily contemplate it.
So either they are bluffing and lying, and are hoping we fold, or No Deal really isn't that bad.
I genuinely don't know the answer. Perhaps no one does? A major No Deal exit from the EU has, after all, never happened before.
This isn't a bluff, as we'll see if the British try to call it.0 -
What does Johnson need to do tommorow to keep up the big bomentum ?
Will not soiling himself suffice ?0 -
What area of the economy do you work in @Luckyguy1983 ?0
-
He'll bring people together of course.FrancisUrquhart said:
It would put corbyn in a tricky spot. He gets what he has been asking for, but will have to say what he intends to do if he wins.Byronic said:
That's probably right, going on this poll. Who Dares Wins. Boris might find it irresistible. But it could break his party.edmundintokyo said:Seems like Boris would be mad not to call a snap election. Run on renegotiating the WA (with the implicit threat of No Deal), get a majority and pass the WA. He needs to do it fast, like right away, before he gets rumbled.
0 -
Hodges is wrong. Tory members are leavers and leavers believe in the power of DETERMINATION. There's no need to explain what you'll do if that doesn't work, just tell them that you are really, really DETERMINED.Gallowgate said:It all comes back to this.
https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1138474106351960070?s=21
Then call an election, out-perform Theresa May and pass the WA.0 -
Well we know what Boris is going to do - call an election.Gallowgate said:It all comes back to this.
https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1138474106351960070?s=21
0 -
On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.
Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).0 -
Dennis Skinner, Gloria Del Piero, Mary Creagh, Cat Smith, Laura Pidcock, Chris Williamson and Jon Cruddas, Lloyd Russell-Moyle, John Woodcock and John Mann would all lose their seats to the Tories on the Boris poll.
Though Zac Goldsmith would lose his seat to the LDs as would Anne Main
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=37&LAB=22&LIB=20&Brexit=14&Green=2&ChUK=1&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
That's possible, but it depends on the reactions of the both the EU and the third group, either of which could alienate much of the second group. And it depends on how chaotic and unpleasant No Deal turns out to be relative to the hype.rcs1000 said:
If you think of the UK as being made up of three roughly equal sized groups:
- get us as far from the EU as possible
- the democratic mandate should be carried out, but I don't care that much, and I would prefer to minimise disruption
- the UK should be part of the EU
A chaotic and unpleasant No Deal Brexit would alienate the second of these groups. No Deal would be blamed for all the bad things that happened in the UK, and the risk is that the second group would find itself seduced by the third.
The only way to get a sustainable Brexit is to make sure as many people are on board as possible at every step. Since long before the vote, I said Brexit should be seen as a process. Right now, the Conservative Party is forgetting that, which will be bad for the UK, and bad for the sustainability of the Brexit settlement.
0 -
Have you seen the weather forecasts? The World Cup is broken. It's very sad.Drutt said:On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.
Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).0 -
Yes. He's still getting new declarations, polling is favourable, the big Bo has the big Mo.Pulpstar said:What does Johnson need to do tommorow to keep up the big bomentum ?
Will not soiling himself suffice ?
Indeed. Unless the EU are amazing bluffers who suddenly cave at the last minute, he has no other option before him.TGOHF said:
Well we know what Boris is going to do - call an election.Gallowgate said:It all comes back to this.
https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1138474106351960070?s=210 -
Do 267 Tory MPs want to risk losing their seats under Rory though as Comres suggests?surbiton19 said:
We all maybe surprised by the number of votes he receives in the first round.Scott_P said:0 -
I thought the WA was a betrayal and that we need to get out with no deal ASAP before we all catch Ebola?edmundintokyo said:
Hodges is wrong. Tory members are leavers and leavers believe in the power of DETERMINATION. There's no need to explain what you'll do if that doesn't work, just tell them that you are really, really DETERMINED.Gallowgate said:It all comes back to this.
https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1138474106351960070?s=21
Then call an election, out-perform Theresa May and pass the WA.0 -
Rory is the death of the Conservative Party.HYUFD said:
Confirms my theory earlier too that while Labour and LD voters may vote Rory 0 will vote for him while Tory voters flock en masse to the Brexit Party. The Tories fall to 5th under Rory behind the Brexit Party, Labour, the LDs and SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:
Astonishing too the difference a candidate's Brexit Party stance makes. The Tories trail Labour under Gove, Hunt, Stewart and Javid all of whom would see Corbyn PM of a Labour minority government with SNP and Labour support with the Brexit Party winning 64-123 seats and under Rory the Brexit Party wins over 200 seats to become largest party.
Raab would see the Tories' largest party but it would still be a Corbyn minority government with SNP and LD support as the Brexit Party vote still holds up a bit. Boris though produces a Tory landslide due to the BP collapse.
The country is divided between Remainers and Leavers. Why would Remainers vote for a Stewart Conservative Party when they could vote for a real deal Remainer party?
Why would Leavers vote for a Stewart Conservative Party when they could vote for a real deal Brexit Party?
In 1993 Kim Campbell's Progressive Conservatives got torn between pleasing the Quebecois and the West and ended up being annihilated losing to both the Bloc Quebecois and the Reform Party ending with just 2 seats. The Tories can expect the same outcome for the same reasons under Rory.0 -
Indeed. The tactical vote could be quite something (even if this hypothetical poll is right). The Bozzatron could be decapitated in Uxbridge!dixiedean said:Curious thing about those figures. If Boris becomes leader Labour goes down, but LD figures go up.
Makes no accounting for tactical voting either.
I find it very hard to credit 140 majority on 33% of the vote. That assumes Lab and LD split almost equally. They may do on this poll, but Boris is a marmite figure. Am sure the anti-Boris vote would coalesce in many places.0 -
Poll hasn’t moved the Betfair Con leader market.0
-
Why is it the liberal left always have to blame the messenger if they dislike the message?Mexicanpete said:
No it does nothing of the sort! It is beyond ridiculous, particularly the contrast between Rory and Johnson. Utter nonsense, it looks like Comres have been hacked by the Russians!HYUFD said:
Confirms my theory earlier too that while Labour and LD voters may vote Rory 0 will vote for him while Tory voters flock en masse to the Brexit Party. The Tories fall to 5th under Rory behind the Brexit Party, Labour, the LDs and SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:
Astonishing too the difference a candidate's Brexit Party stance makes. The Tories trail Labour under Gove, Hunt, Stewart and Javid all of whom would see Corbyn PM of a Labour minority government with SNP and Labour support with the Brexit Party winning 64-123 seats and under Rory the Brexit Party wins over 200 seats to become largest party.
Raab would see the Tories' largest party but it would still be a Corbyn minority government with SNP and LD support as the Brexit Party vote still holds up a bit. Boris though produces a Tory landslide due to the BP collapse.0 -
Gallowgate said:
What area of the economy do you work in @Luckyguy1983 ?
I have been pondering this myself. Has the selfish easy confidence of someone who is entirely unaffected by bad trading conditions and economic disruption.0 -
I am really puzzled. Only 68% of 2017 Con voters will vote Conservative under Boris and yet Tories will get 37% of the vote [ down from 42% ]. Remember UKIP only got 4% in 2017. So virtually half of Labour voters [ where over 70% are Remain supporters ] will not vote Labour.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1138559058686939138
Those numbers don't look like a majority...
I have difficulty getting that.0 -
+1rcs1000 said:
This is an interesting question. I think a lot of Leavers want to make sure we leave as absolutely as possible, because that minimises the risk of the UK staying.initforthemoney said:
It flows from Remainers' determination to foil Brexit or failing that to reverse it. The sooner the Brexit, the sooner the fear of never leaving is extinguished. The harder the Brexit, the more comprehensive the bridge burning.
My view is different. I suspect that a chaotic No Deal, one which exposed the existing flaws in the UK economy, and led to a painful recession, would probably put us in the worst of all positions.
If you think of the UK as being made up of three roughly equal sized groups:
- get us as far from the EU as possible
- the democratic mandate should be carried out, but I don't care that much, and I would prefer to minimise disruption
- the UK should be part of the EU
A chaotic and unpleasant No Deal Brexit would alienate the second of these groups. No Deal would be blamed for all the bad things that happened in the UK, and the risk is that the second group would find itself seduced by the third.
The only way to get a sustainable Brexit is to make sure as many people are on board as possible at every step. Since long before the vote, I said Brexit should be seen as a process. Right now, the Conservative Party is forgetting that, which will be bad for the UK, and bad for the sustainability of the Brexit settlement.0 -
For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on ThursdayDrutt said:On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.
Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13
They won't bowl a ball.
What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.0 -
Have the EU once broken ranks during these negotiations? No. It has been remarkably as one.Byronic said:
That is completely wrong, as the EU is not a monolith. What if, for domestic political reasons, and in the midst of British confusion and stasis, Macron decides to veto an extension in October, as he has consistently promised to do? He strikes me as a politician who likes to appear firm (and it always pays to Bash the Brits, for a French Prez).noneoftheabove said:
With all the talk of folding and bluffing lets put it in terms of texas holdem.Byronic said:
Yes. But before.Benpointer said:
Maybe ye the EU?Philip_Thompson said:Mysticrose said:Philip_Thompson said:Mysticrose said:Philip_Thompson said:viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
.viewcode said:Philip_Thompson said:
Which does not include the backstop...viewcode said:
And yet we signed the GFA...Sandpit said:
Indeed they are - against the British.not_on_fire said:
.Sandpit said:williamglenn said:
.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
.
etc. etc.
Our hand is 8s5d, theirs is Ks7h, the board is Kd, Qc, Tc
If this was a private negotiation just perhaps we could bluff them off their better hand by showing great strength as the brexiteers implore us to do. In reality because we are negotiating through a hung parliament, they can actually see our hand.
When the PM says we will leave with no deal, they nod politely and say we hope you dont. But actually they know the PM cannot do this as parliament will not let them, and ignore the PMs threats.
The EU/Ireland is not bluffing at all, instead it has seen what our hand is, and therefore they have no need to consider no deal as an outcome.
Then we No Deal. The British government has the advantage of being one government playing one hand, albeit very weak. The EU has many more cards - but they have many more players, with different interests.
Macron was allowed to play to his domestic audience, but it was theatre. He will be allowed his stage again come October, but there is no way they will no deal without Irelands approval, and they wont get that.0 -
Yes, I think Boris has to go for an immediate GE. Two reasons:GIN1138 said:Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/
17th October general election here we come?
First he'll have momentum from becoming PM.
Second, and more important, he cannot risk failing to leave the EU on 31 October. If that happens he'll take a huge hit. He has to go for a GE while he's riding high and whilst people can still believe he'll do what he says.1 -
Labour falls to just 22% on the poll with the Tories on 37% under Boris and the LDs up to 20%, Labour losing Leavers to Boris and Remainers to the LDs under Corbyn and heading for an even worse voteshare than Foot 1983surbiton19 said:
I am really puzzled. Only 68% of 2017 Con voters will vote Conservative under Boris and yet Tories will get 37% of the vote [ down from 42% ]. Remember UKIP only got 4% in 2017. So virtually half of Labour voters [ where over 70% are Remain supporters ] will not vote Labour.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1138559058686939138
Those numbers don't look like a majority...
I have difficulty getting that.0 -
In 1999 it was played even earlier with hardly any matches lost to rain.Byronic said:
For anyone tempted to bet, here is the weather forecast for Trent Bridge on ThursdayDrutt said:On topic, only £20-odd of that £3.5M is mine. Currently green bigly on Hunt (66) and Leadsom (25), break even on Boris, red bar.
Off topic, NZ are as long as 2.8 against India on Thursday and they absolutely shouldn't be. Of the teams at this tournament, it's NZ 's bowlers who look best placed on an English track to contain India's batsmen. NZ have won once under lights, once by 10 wickets and once by 100+ runs. I'm tempted to say that the money shortening India is placed by Indians on India because India. I'm on at 2.7 and tip thusly (and you'll remember my last tip was to back WI against PAK; WI won with just 218 balls to spare).
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjm8jf7#?date=2019-06-13
They won't bowl a ball.
What an idiotic decision to play a World Cup in June in England. They should have brought forward the Ashes, and played the World Cup in July/August. As was discussed earlier.0
This discussion has been closed.