No significant rain last few days here in Newcastle. Could easily have played some cricket at Chester Le Street!
What, so you are saying that when it rained in Sean’s back garden it wasn’t also raining in your back garden? I refuse to believe it!!
Uh, lol. I am not Sean. Etc. I know others find this laughable, but I am a small new poster trying to achieve his own identity, and it is quite discouraging to be casually dismissed as a pathetic shadow of a lost PB titan.
Again, you still hadn’t actually told me one way or another! In any case, who cares? Keep posting, keep up the good work.
Wilko!
*salutes*
This is interesting. Brexiteers, and Baby boomers, imagine they are the wartime generation. They are not.
The useful number in the ComRes is Johnson’s 37%. That’s a maximum. It’s low. The Labour and LD numbers would, in reality, clearly be heavily affected by tactical voting. This polling will excite a lot of people. It shouldn’t.
It's not a maximum. Brexit Party could fall through the floor with a credible Brexit Party in office.
Right now everything can be projected onto Johnson. If BXP supporters are not prepared to back him in the abstract harsh reality is unlikely to persuade them. The only chance he might have is a snap election to get a No Deal mandate. But that then splits the Conservative party and ensures widespread anti-No Deal tactical voting.
How he must be wishing Theresa May had gone sooner, and he could have had a honeymoon election. As it is, he'll start his premiership already caught fast in the Brexit trap.
If labour do win the motion tomorrow can BJ if he somehow wins by coronation (unlikely I know) rather than by membership vote on 22 June and is made PM, can he not force a GE immediately and go to the country to get his mandate to leave deal or no deal 31/10?
Considering I've put my real name here I'd rather keep my private life private. No offence.
Well then why on earth should anyone believe that you are remotely qualified to have any informed opinion on whether a No Deal Brexit would be damaging or not?
Especially when a vast majority of the people who’s actual job is to study this stuff think it’s a bad idea.
You could work behind the counter of an off license for god sake.
Begs belief.
Believe what you want.
I could have written literally anything here and you would have no idea if I'm telling the truth or not. You want me to appeal to authority? That's a fallacy for gods sake. Judge my words on their merits, my thoughts on their logic. Not some nonsense appeal for authority.
I made a decision many years ago not to mix work with politics. People have strong opinions on politics and it can just piss people off. So I don't discuss politics or religion at work, only online, and I won't discuss my work where I discuss politics. Its healthier to have a separation for me.
There's a "Philip Thompson" in Manchester who drives a bus for Stagecoach on LinkedIn. Is that you?
I can still feel the heat of last year's summer. This year's summer can be a washout and I'll be sustained by that memory, though it would be a shame to lose a lot more cricket.
If labour do win the motion tomorrow can BJ if he somehow wins by coronation (unlikely I know) rather than by membership vote on 22 June and is made PM, can he not force a GE immediately and go to the country to get his mandate to leave deal or no deal 31/10?
If Labour decided it didn't suit them to have a general election just now, it would be quite awkward for him to force one, wouldn't it? Ordinarily it would look very bad for Labour to refuse an election, but what with the Brexit deadline in three and a half months they would have quite a plausible excuse.
If labour do win the motion tomorrow can BJ if he somehow wins by coronation (unlikely I know) rather than by membership vote on 22 June and is made PM, can he not force a GE immediately and go to the country to get his mandate to leave deal or no deal 31/10?
If Labour decided it didn't suit them to have a general election just now, it would be quite awkward for him to force one, wouldn't it? Ordinarily it would look very bad for Labour to refuse an election, but what with the Brexit deadline in three and a half months they would have quite a plausible excuse.
No Opposition will ever refuse a general election.
If labour do win the motion tomorrow can BJ if he somehow wins by coronation (unlikely I know) rather than by membership vote on 22 June and is made PM, can he not force a GE immediately and go to the country to get his mandate to leave deal or no deal 31/10?
If Labour decided it didn't suit them to have a general election just now, it would be quite awkward for him to force one, wouldn't it? Ordinarily it would look very bad for Labour to refuse an election, but what with the Brexit deadline in three and a half months they would have quite a plausible excuse.
No Opposition will ever refuse a general election.
If labour do win the motion tomorrow can BJ if he somehow wins by coronation (unlikely I know) rather than by membership vote on 22 June and is made PM, can he not force a GE immediately and go to the country to get his mandate to leave deal or no deal 31/10?
If Labour decided it didn't suit them to have a general election just now, it would be quite awkward for him to force one, wouldn't it? Ordinarily it would look very bad for Labour to refuse an election, but what with the Brexit deadline in three and a half months they would have quite a plausible excuse.
No Opposition will ever refuse a general election.
Especially after the official labour party position for months has been they want a GE.
If labour do win the motion tomorrow can BJ if he somehow wins by coronation (unlikely I know) rather than by membership vote on 22 June and is made PM, can he not force a GE immediately and go to the country to get his mandate to leave deal or no deal 31/10?
If Labour decided it didn't suit them to have a general election just now, it would be quite awkward for him to force one, wouldn't it? Ordinarily it would look very bad for Labour to refuse an election, but what with the Brexit deadline in three and a half months they would have quite a plausible excuse.
Nah corbyn won’t refuse the chance of a GE. Does anyone think tomorrow’s vote will fail? Will any opposition MPs abstain? What are the numbers like on this, even if it succeeds they still have to get legislation through on June 25th
If labour do win the motion tomorrow can BJ if he somehow wins by coronation (unlikely I know) rather than by membership vote on 22 June and is made PM, can he not force a GE immediately and go to the country to get his mandate to leave deal or no deal 31/10?
If Labour decided it didn't suit them to have a general election just now, it would be quite awkward for him to force one, wouldn't it? Ordinarily it would look very bad for Labour to refuse an election, but what with the Brexit deadline in three and a half months they would have quite a plausible excuse.
No Opposition will ever refuse a general election.
Why?
Because Jezza has been saying for pretty much every single day that he's been LOTO that he wants a general election.
Once the opportunity is offered to him he has to take it...
If labour do win the motion tomorrow can BJ if he somehow wins by coronation (unlikely I know) rather than by membership vote on 22 June and is made PM, can he not force a GE immediately and go to the country to get his mandate to leave deal or no deal 31/10?
If Labour decided it didn't suit them to have a general election just now, it would be quite awkward for him to force one, wouldn't it? Ordinarily it would look very bad for Labour to refuse an election, but what with the Brexit deadline in three and a half months they would have quite a plausible excuse.
No Opposition will ever refuse a general election.
Why?
Because Jezza has been saying for pretty much every single day that he's been LOTO that he wants a general election.
Once the opportunity is offered to him he has to take it...
What do we want...a GE...when do we want it ...now...well no hold on, not now, in a bit....i have the allotment summer fayre, then i am off on a jam making course in skegness, and then there is arsenal pre season friendlies.
If labour do win the motion tomorrow can BJ if he somehow wins by coronation (unlikely I know) rather than by membership vote on 22 June and is made PM, can he not force a GE immediately and go to the country to get his mandate to leave deal or no deal 31/10?
If Labour decided it didn't suit them to have a general election just now, it would be quite awkward for him to force one, wouldn't it? Ordinarily it would look very bad for Labour to refuse an election, but what with the Brexit deadline in three and a half months they would have quite a plausible excuse.
No Opposition will ever refuse a general election.
Why?
Because Jezza has been saying for pretty much every single day that he's been LOTO that he wants a general election.
Once the opportunity is offered to him he has to take it...
You mean Corbyn in particular won't refuse, not "No Opposition will ever refuse"?
What’s the earliest one could happen? It must be mid-September. Will Johnson really claim he can renegotiate a new deal in six weeks?
In fairness, if the EU are movable at all, that is actually plausible depending on how much of a renegotiation is sought. The sticking matters, such as the dreaded backstop, are fairly simple to identify and the EU making a shift on that could be very agreed very quickly, if they are persuadable.
The issue is they have been pretty blunt they won't do that, and politically it would be a hugely embarrassing climb down for them to do so, even if it made sense to do so. So Boris claiming he could do it in that time is technically possible, but likely to never be tested and he knows it. It's part of the blame the EU and May strategy, because he wanted to do it dagnabbit, but they would not give him the time of day.
If labour do win the motion tomorrow can BJ if he somehow wins by coronation (unlikely I know) rather than by membership vote on 22 June and is made PM, can he not force a GE immediately and go to the country to get his mandate to leave deal or no deal 31/10?
If Labour decided it didn't suit them to have a general election just now, it would be quite awkward for him to force one, wouldn't it? Ordinarily it would look very bad for Labour to refuse an election, but what with the Brexit deadline in three and a half months they would have quite a plausible excuse.
No Opposition will ever refuse a general election.
Why?
Because Jezza has been saying for pretty much every single day that he's been LOTO that he wants a general election.
Once the opportunity is offered to him he has to take it...
What do we want...a GE...when do we want it ...now...well no hold on, not now, in a bit....i have the allotment summer fayre, then i am off on a jam making course in skegness, and then there is arsenal pre season friendlies.
Looking at the Quinnipiac poll, one might tend to the view that just as our American friends are coming to their senses, we are taking leave of ours.
It's an opinion poll nearly 20 months in advance of the election. In the Quinnipiac polls after the convention nominations in 2016 the Clinton lead varied over these values: [10,5,1,6,6].
I'm tempted to suggest that Nothing Has Changed.
(Also, has anyone seen you and HYUFD in the same room?)
If labour do win the motion tomorrow can BJ if he somehow wins by coronation (unlikely I know) rather than by membership vote on 22 June and is made PM, can he not force a GE immediately and go to the country to get his mandate to leave deal or no deal 31/10?
If Labour decided it didn't suit them to have a general election just now, it would be quite awkward for him to force one, wouldn't it? Ordinarily it would look very bad for Labour to refuse an election, but what with the Brexit deadline in three and a half months they would have quite a plausible excuse.
No Opposition will ever refuse a general election.
Why?
Because Jezza has been saying for pretty much every single day that he's been LOTO that he wants a general election.
Once the opportunity is offered to him he has to take it...
You mean Corbyn in particular won't refuse, not "No Opposition will ever refuse"?
Semantics.
If Boris offers Corbyn a general election on 17th October Jezza will bite his arm off and the Labour Party will be whipped to vote for it.
If labour do win the motion tomorrow can BJ if he somehow wins by coronation (unlikely I know) rather than by membership vote on 22 June and is made PM, can he not force a GE immediately and go to the country to get his mandate to leave deal or no deal 31/10?
If Labour decided it didn't suit them to have a general election just now, it would be quite awkward for him to force one, wouldn't it? Ordinarily it would look very bad for Labour to refuse an election, but what with the Brexit deadline in three and a half months they would have quite a plausible excuse.
No Opposition will ever refuse a general election.
Why?
Because Jezza has been saying for pretty much every single day that he's been LOTO that he wants a general election.
Once the opportunity is offered to him he has to take it...
You mean Corbyn in particular won't refuse, not "No Opposition will ever refuse"?
Semantics.
If Boris offers Corbyn a general election on 17th October Jezza will bite his arm off and the Labour Party will be whipped to vote for it.
I am sure Boris would be delighted to trounce Corbyn in Thatcher Foot 1983 style if Comres is correct and Corbyn takes up the offer
Looking at the Quinnipiac poll, one might tend to the view that just as our American friends are coming to their senses, we are taking leave of ours.
It's an opinion poll nearly 20 months in advance of the election. In the Quinnipiac polls after the convention nominations in 2016 the Clinton lead varied over these values: [10,5,1,6,6].
I'm tempted to suggest that Nothing Has Changed.
(Also, has anyone seen you and HYUFD in the same room?)
Indeed and Reagan was polling even worse than Trump at this stage in 1983
The only way for Boris to achieve Brexit is going to have to be an immediate General Election to get a mandate to leave deal or no deal 31/10, Boris will win such an election by a landslide and it doesn’t matter what this parliament has said regarding no deal as no parliament can bind a future parliament ,
The only way for Boris to achieve Brexit is going to have to be an immediate General Election to get a mandate to leave deal or no deal 31/10, Boris will win such an election by a landslide and it doesn’t matter what this parliament has said regarding no deal as no parliament can bind a future parliament ,
Agreed. Its a hell of a gamble but the only real way forward.
So how long after Boris becomes PM do we expect he’ll go for an election? Weeks? Days?
He needs to do it fast because of the timetabling issues that @SouthamObserver identifies. But he might want to take a week or two looking prime ministerial and rolling through some tax cuts or whatever he considers politically advantageous.
That said, the DUP might turn out to be difficult. I guess he'll need to at least have a conversation with them to confirm that the arrangement is still on before he's sent for by The Queen??? But if they think they're going to be instantly discarded, might they be tempted to withhold support and deny Boris is new-PM bounce?
So how long after Boris becomes PM do we expect he’ll go for an election? Weeks? Days?
September GE is 14 on Betfair, which I reckon is huge value.
Covers both the possibility that the new PM calls one on the spot or within a few days, and the possibility that the new Con leader doesn’t have the confidence of the House, leaving Theresa May stranded in No 10.
A GE called for a week before the Brexit deadline in October makes no sense at all, and probably gets opposed by Parliament (remember there’s 434 votes needed to call it).
So how long after Boris becomes PM do we expect he’ll go for an election? Weeks? Days?
He needs to do it fast because of the timetabling issues that @SouthamObserver identifies. But he might want to take a week or two looking prime ministerial and rolling through some tax cuts or whatever he considers politically advantageous.
That said, the DUP might turn out to be difficult. I guess he'll need to at least have a conversation with them to confirm that the arrangement is still on before he's sent for by The Queen??? But if they think they're going to be instantly discarded, might they be tempted to withhold support and deny Boris is new-PM bounce?
Can he unilaterally cut taxes? Wouldn't that require a Budget? Sure, he could promise to... One thing he couldn't do is hide from scrutiny and refuse to answer questions or appear for any debating. Recent history suggests that to be unwise.
Is labours opposition motion going to be fully supported by all labour MPs or will there be abstentions from labour leavers? Anyone got a clue or thoughts ?
Is labours opposition motion going to be fully supported by all labour MPs or will there be abstentions from labour leavers? Anyone got a clue or thoughts ?
In the March 27th indicative votes there were three Labour votes for no deal and three abstentions.
If BJ gets higher numbers in the MP ballot than expected in the light of these polls we may well see a Tory coronation by 22nd June, and He can offer labour an immediate GE to get his mandate which he will handsomely win , unlike TM
Is labours opposition motion going to be fully supported by all labour MPs or will there be abstentions from labour leavers? Anyone got a clue or thoughts ?
In the March 27th indicative votes there were three Labour votes for no deal and three abstentions.
Thank you for that , it’s going to be very close tomorrow
So how long after Boris becomes PM do we expect he’ll go for an election? Weeks? Days?
September GE is 14 on Betfair, which I reckon is huge value.
Covers both the possibility that the new PM calls one on the spot or within a few days, and the possibility that the new Con leader doesn’t have the confidence of the House, leaving Theresa May stranded in No 10.
A GE called for a week before the Brexit deadline in October makes no sense at all, and probably gets opposed by Parliament (remember there’s 434 votes needed to call it).
The new Conservative leader would need to be PM before he (or she) could be no confidenced. There is no mechanism to vote against him or her while Theresa May is still PM. Add 14 days for the FTPA. Here it gets tricky because probably the House would be in recess during the summer. I do not know if we can make the dates work for a September election. It might mean we are actually betting on the leadership contest not going to the Conservative members.
Guido is reporting that Steve Barclay is supporting Boris.
We must be coming to the point where Boris is so far clear that any ambitious member hoping for a government job will want to be seen to have supported him. Let us hope for their sakes Boris does not come unstuck.
Guido is reporting that Steve Barclay is supporting Boris.
We must be coming to the point where Boris is so far clear that any ambitious member hoping for a government job will want to be seen to have supported him. Let us hope for their sakes Boris does not come unstuck.
If his numbers are really strong on Thursday night, we may well be looking at a coronation
The only way for Boris to achieve Brexit is going to have to be an immediate General Election to get a mandate to leave deal or no deal 31/10, Boris will win such an election by a landslide and it doesn’t matter what this parliament has said regarding no deal as no parliament can bind a future parliament ,
Up to a point, Lord Copper. If the current Parliament passed primary legislation to prevent no deal, then the next Parliament would have to specifically repeal it. That might get delayed in the Lords, the Salisbury convention notwithstanding. What no Parliament can do is entrench legislation and say this or that Act is unrepealable or unamendable by a future Parliament.
What is it that everybody sees in boris? I just dont get it. Cameron i understood, boris is a total different kettle of fish.
At the end of the day the Tory party exists for one reason only - to be in power, and if it is clear as it looks from the polling , the only route to winning the next GE is with Boris, he will be the next Tory PM
So how long after Boris becomes PM do we expect he’ll go for an election? Weeks? Days?
He needs to do it fast because of the timetabling issues that @SouthamObserver identifies. But he might want to take a week or two looking prime ministerial and rolling through some tax cuts or whatever he considers politically advantageous.
That said, the DUP might turn out to be difficult. I guess he'll need to at least have a conversation with them to confirm that the arrangement is still on before he's sent for by The Queen??? But if they think they're going to be instantly discarded, might they be tempted to withhold support and deny Boris is new-PM bounce?
Can he unilaterally cut taxes? Wouldn't that require a Budget? Sure, he could promise to... One thing he couldn't do is hide from scrutiny and refuse to answer questions or appear for any debating. Recent history suggests that to be unwise.
Theresa May was found to be the most evasive prime minister at PMQs. I expect Boris might feel up for that challenge!
The only way for Boris to achieve Brexit is going to have to be an immediate General Election to get a mandate to leave deal or no deal 31/10, Boris will win such an election by a landslide and it doesn’t matter what this parliament has said regarding no deal as no parliament can bind a future parliament ,
Up to a point, Lord Copper. If the current Parliament passed primary legislation to prevent no deal, then the next Parliament would have to specifically repeal it. That might get delayed in the Lords, the Salisbury convention notwithstanding. What no Parliament can do is entrench legislation and say this or that Act is unrepealable or unamendable by a future Parliament.
If he won a mandate to leave deal or no deal then he could use the parliament act to force through repeal of any primary legislation brought about by the current parliament
The only way for Boris to achieve Brexit is going to have to be an immediate General Election to get a mandate to leave deal or no deal 31/10, Boris will win such an election by a landslide and it doesn’t matter what this parliament has said regarding no deal as no parliament can bind a future parliament ,
Up to a point, Lord Copper. If the current Parliament passed primary legislation to prevent no deal, then the next Parliament would have to specifically repeal it. That might get delayed in the Lords, the Salisbury convention notwithstanding. What no Parliament can do is entrench legislation and say this or that Act is unrepealable or unamendable by a future Parliament.
If he won a mandate to leave deal or no deal then he could use the parliament act to force through repeal of any primary legislation brought about by the current parliament
Yes he could but how long would it take? I suppose we'd need to check the precise wording of the motion to see if we could crash out of the EU by mistake (or rather by inaction before the 31/10 deadline).
Boris might secretly welcome a delay on Brexit. Certainly he has said we should leave on halloween but on the other hand, at least some of the Remainers backing Boris believe he will reverse course once in Downing Street, and as the court has just confirmed, Boris's political promises are not binding.
"Glyn Davies told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast With Claire Summers that he would be nominating Andrea Leadsom to ensure she can be on the ballot paper. He said he could be supporting Jeremy Hunt, but has a "tremendous respect" for Michael Gove and wouldn't be completely against Boris Johnson. He told the programme he supports Mr Hunt's views on abortion. The hopeful told Sky News on Sunday the legal limit for abortion should be reduced from 24 weeks to 12 weeks, saying it was "perfectly legitimate"."
"Glyn Davies told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast With Claire Summers that he would be nominating Andrea Leadsom to ensure she can be on the ballot paper. He said he could be supporting Jeremy Hunt, but has a "tremendous respect" for Michael Gove and wouldn't be completely against Boris Johnson. He told the programme he supports Mr Hunt's views on abortion. The hopeful told Sky News on Sunday the legal limit for abortion should be reduced from 24 weeks to 12 weeks, saying it was "perfectly legitimate"."
That is going to bugger up your spreadsheet if you have to show Davies supporting Leadsom but also Hunt, Gove and Johnson. It does, however, seem to confirm the suspicion that CCHQ would lean on MPs to ensure at least one woman candidate; whether Leadsom or McVey survive into next week, we shall find out tomorrow.
"Glyn Davies told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast With Claire Summers that he would be nominating Andrea Leadsom to ensure she can be on the ballot paper. He said he could be supporting Jeremy Hunt, but has a "tremendous respect" for Michael Gove and wouldn't be completely against Boris Johnson. He told the programme he supports Mr Hunt's views on abortion. The hopeful told Sky News on Sunday the legal limit for abortion should be reduced from 24 weeks to 12 weeks, saying it was "perfectly legitimate"."
That is going to bugger up your spreadsheet if you have to show Davies supporting Leadsom but also Hunt, Gove and Johnson. It does, however, seem to confirm the suspicion that CCHQ would lean on MPs to ensure at least one woman candidate; whether Leadsom or McVey survive into next week, we shall find out tomorrow.
I wouldn't include him because he hasn't endorsed a single candidate. But I didn't expect people to be signing the nomination papers of candidates they're not necessarily going to vote for.
"Glyn Davies told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast With Claire Summers that he would be nominating Andrea Leadsom to ensure she can be on the ballot paper. He said he could be supporting Jeremy Hunt, but has a "tremendous respect" for Michael Gove and wouldn't be completely against Boris Johnson. He told the programme he supports Mr Hunt's views on abortion. The hopeful told Sky News on Sunday the legal limit for abortion should be reduced from 24 weeks to 12 weeks, saying it was "perfectly legitimate"."
That is going to bugger up your spreadsheet if you have to show Davies supporting Leadsom but also Hunt, Gove and Johnson. It does, however, seem to confirm the suspicion that CCHQ would lean on MPs to ensure at least one woman candidate; whether Leadsom or McVey survive into next week, we shall find out tomorrow.
Let me guess, Glyn Davies follows the whip almost 100%
He seems to be defaulting to the stop Boris candidate
Looks like it.
Aside from technically breaking a money laundering regulation, occasionally forgetting where his wife is from and enjoying the odd cannabis lasse he's a fairly safe bet. Something the Tories probably want for the Boris challenger - unlike Gove now
Trivia: both of the Old Etonian and Oxbridge candidates, Boris and Rory, were born abroad and are known by their first names. Coincidence? Well, yes, obviously.
We all maybe surprised by the number of votes he receives in the first round.
Do 267 Tory MPs want to risk losing their seats under Rory though as Comres suggests?
If those Tory MPs have any sense they will recall that at the last election the PM had a poll lead >20 points, but because she was inept, incapable of talking to people and unable to tell a story that could engage the public, she blew almost all that lead and lost Tory seats.
Instead they could choose a leader who can talk to people, has the potential to change minds and just might be the best hope for uniting a very divided country.
If it was all about opinion polls then Theresa May would be PM with a huge majority.
I'm a big fan of opinion polls. Although imperfect, they are the only quantitative evidence that we have. Sometimes, though, you have to go beyond the available evidence and make a judgement call about what you anticipate the future changes could or might be.
I have swallowed the Rory kool-aid in full, and I think he represents the Tories best hope of escaping the trap they currently find themselves in - and saving the country from the shambles of a Corbyn ministry.
May still got 42% and 318 seats and stayed PM and leader of the largest party, Rory is projected to get just 19% and 51 seats and see the Tories fall to 4th place
Apples and oranges. It is meaningless to compare the result of a GE 2 years ago with a opinon poll about hypothetical a GE now. What % do you thin May would get is she called a GE now?
We all maybe surprised by the number of votes he receives in the first round.
Do 267 Tory MPs want to risk losing their seats under Rory though as Comres suggests?
If those Tory MPs have any sense they will recall that at the last election the PM had a poll lead >20 points, but because she was inept, incapable of talking to people and unable to tell a story that could engage the public, she blew almost all that lead and lost Tory seats.
Instead they could choose a leader who can talk to people, has the potential to change minds and just might be the best hope for uniting a very divided country.
If it was all about opinion polls then Theresa May would be PM with a huge majority.
I'm a big fan of opinion polls. Although imperfect, they are the only quantitative evidence that we have. Sometimes, though, you have to go beyond the available evidence and make a judgement call about what you anticipate the future changes could or might be.
I have swallowed the Rory kool-aid in full, and I think he represents the Tories best hope of escaping the trap they currently find themselves in - and saving the country from the shambles of a Corbyn ministry.
May still got 42% and 318 seats and stayed PM and leader of the largest party, Rory is projected to get just 19% and 51 seats and see the Tories fall to 4th place
Apples and oranges. It is meaningless to compare the result of a GE 2 years ago with a opinon poll about hypothetical a GE now. What % do you thin May would get is she called a GE now?
And what was Theresa May polling before she became leader?
What is it that everybody sees in boris? I just dont get it. Cameron i understood, boris is a total different kettle of fish.
A foppish Hugh Grant charm. A wicked sense of humour and twinkly eyes. The ability to transcend party politics with a brand - BORIS - that can win anywhere with support across the spectrum. An honest dishonesty - he gets things wrong and tries to pretend he didn't just like millions of his compatriots.
Boris as PM faces the same impossible parliamentary maths that did for May. But Boris can nuke both Labour and Brexit with a snap election in October. Like Farage he will offer immediate Brexit, but unlike Farage will have policies outside of Brexit which I guarantee will be more everyman than people think (as they were when he won London). Counter to this will be Magic Grandpa offering to block immediate Brexit and do a lengthy not on the table renegotiation. Leavers will vote Tory, remainers will vote LibDem.
It's all there for Boris and for the Tories. Yes, they will lose the Grieve wing of the party. But so what if they win anyway.
The electorate for Party leader is somewhat different from the electorate for London Mayor. I'd be delighted to think BJohnson's chances overrated. But surely that wouldn't have much to do with name recognition.
Comments
*salutes*
This is interesting. Brexiteers, and Baby boomers, imagine they are the wartime generation. They are not.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/06/today-s-75-year-olds-didn-t-fight-war-so-why-do-we-think-they-did
Nighty night!
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1137684129716342784
Strength. Will. DETERMINATION.
I can still feel the heat of last year's summer. This year's summer can be a washout and I'll be sustained by that memory, though it would be a shame to lose a lot more cricket.
Once the opportunity is offered to him he has to take it...
The issue is they have been pretty blunt they won't do that, and politically it would be a hugely embarrassing climb down for them to do so, even if it made sense to do so. So Boris claiming he could do it in that time is technically possible, but likely to never be tested and he knows it. It's part of the blame the EU and May strategy, because he wanted to do it dagnabbit, but they would not give him the time of day.
I'm tempted to suggest that Nothing Has Changed.
(Also, has anyone seen you and HYUFD in the same room?)
If Boris offers Corbyn a general election on 17th October Jezza will bite his arm off and the Labour Party will be whipped to vote for it.
Reagan was at net +2.3% on this day of his presidency, while Trump is at -10.9%
Others: Obama +1.3%, Clinton +2.5%. The two Bushes are unfortunately not too helpful, because of war boosts (+30 and +57).
That said, the DUP might turn out to be difficult. I guess he'll need to at least have a conversation with them to confirm that the arrangement is still on before he's sent for by The Queen??? But if they think they're going to be instantly discarded, might they be tempted to withhold support and deny Boris is new-PM bounce?
Covers both the possibility that the new PM calls one on the spot or within a few days, and the possibility that the new Con leader doesn’t have the confidence of the House, leaving Theresa May stranded in No 10.
A GE called for a week before the Brexit deadline in October makes no sense at all, and probably gets opposed by Parliament (remember there’s 434 votes needed to call it).
One thing he couldn't do is hide from scrutiny and refuse to answer questions or appear for any debating. Recent history suggests that to be unwise.
https://www.people-press.org/1995/10/30/ignore-the-horse-race-pay-attention-to-the-trend/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48602988
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1139231/brexit-news-boris-johnson-tory-leadership-race-brexit-delay-date
https://www.ft.com/content/4f645500-8c66-11e9-a24d-b42f641eca37
(Google it to get round paywall).
"Glyn Davies told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast With Claire Summers that he would be nominating Andrea Leadsom to ensure she can be on the ballot paper.
He said he could be supporting Jeremy Hunt, but has a "tremendous respect" for Michael Gove and wouldn't be completely against Boris Johnson.
He told the programme he supports Mr Hunt's views on abortion. The hopeful told Sky News on Sunday the legal limit for abortion should be reduced from 24 weeks to 12 weeks, saying it was "perfectly legitimate"."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48580377
Boris as PM faces the same impossible parliamentary maths that did for May. But Boris can nuke both Labour and Brexit with a snap election in October. Like Farage he will offer immediate Brexit, but unlike Farage will have policies outside of Brexit which I guarantee will be more everyman than people think (as they were when he won London). Counter to this will be Magic Grandpa offering to block immediate Brexit and do a lengthy not on the table renegotiation. Leavers will vote Tory, remainers will vote LibDem.
It's all there for Boris and for the Tories. Yes, they will lose the Grieve wing of the party. But so what if they win anyway.