politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair alone £3.5m has already been wagered on the CON lea

Mysticrose said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Sandpit said:

not_on_fire said:

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.

But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?

Ireland is an EU member. Their interests are
aligned.

Indeed they are - against the British.

That’s not a reason we should agree to it.

And yet we signed the GFA...

Which does not include the backstop...

But does include cross-border organisation.

Cross-border yes. The backstop isn't cross-border, all power is on the Irish side of the border and the UK side is just a colony.

So use UK power to push back. And if pushing back doesn't work, then you don't have any power...

One of the bad things about this is how badly it is exposing lack of power. One of the reasons why I was so Remainery was because I wanted power, not control. But Leavers mistook control for power and we are now horribly finding out that control with no power is useless. Hence the unending whining about being bullied. People with power do not whine about being bullied. They do the bullying.

We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.

This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying

Alistair said:

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/matt_gillow/status/1138492573234937859

“Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?

It is millions. That's a matter of fact.

Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?

Equally it's millions less than it used to be.

In 2016/17 anyone earning over £43,000 was paying higher rate tax at 40%
in 2019/20 you need to earn £50,000 (outside of Scotland) to be paying higher rate tax - an increase from £46350 in 2018/19)..

And millions of more that it was in previous years too. But either way the statement was that millions of people pay it and millions of people do. Just shows how out of touch with reality Gallowgate is FFS.

The reasoning for £80k, is that that’s what the starting point for the 40% rate would be, if it had risen with inflation since it was introduced by Lawson in (IIRC) 1988.

The upper rate started at £19,300 in 1988.

Using the bank of England inflation calculator that 19 grand would be £50,000 today.

Which the current higher rate tax band is.

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

Gallowgate said:

another_richard said:

This is what you said at 8.17:

" Now thanks

This is what I said at 8.31:

" Brexit is a consequence of the EU being united against us rather than a cause.

The ever more desperate 'Germany will need an ally against France and 'France will need an ally against Germany' fantasies from our politicians and Sir Humphreys from 1990 onwards.

Not to mention the 'if we broaden Europe we will stop a deeper Europe' and 'if make a concession now we gain goodwill for the future' wishful thinking. "

I did not state that Europe was 'holding us down' so please don't claim I did.

Now what my comment was referencing was the failure of our politicians and Sir Humphreys over several decades to understand that the EU's policy of EverCloserUnion actually meant EverCloserUnion and the consequent failure of Britain policy towards the EU.

I do not blame the EU or other European countries for this - the failure was one of Britain's political leadership.

My comment about the EU being united against us NOW is fact by the nature of them being on the other side of the negotiating table as a united front.

Your comment was referencing that prior to Brexit, the reason why Brexit happened was due to the EU being united against our interests. If I have misinterpreted that, I apologise.

I do not think the EU was united against us ** but it was united in support of EverCloserUnion which was a policy which Britain didn't support and didn't understand.

And it was the unwillingness of British governments to understand this and their fantasies that 'Europe was coming our way' which in large part has led to the current situation.

** How much the strategy of EverCloserUnion was through opposition to 'the Anglo-Saxons' / a US dominated world I don't know.

Anyway no need for apologies or harsh words, its all a bit of fun

You are projecting your own views. In the 70s the British government was every bit as committed to ever closer union as the other members. The dialogue of the deaf only crept in much later on.

Philip_Thompson said:

Alistair said:

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/matt_gillow/status/1138492573234937859

“Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?

It is millions. That's a matter of fact.

Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?

Equally it's millions less than it used to be.

In 2016/17 anyone earning over £43,000 was paying higher rate tax at 40%
in 2019/20 you need to earn £50,000 (outside of Scotland) to be paying higher rate tax - an increase from £46350 in 2018/19)..

And millions of more that it was in previous years too. But either way the statement was that millions of people pay it and millions of people do. Just shows how out of touch with reality Gallowgate is FFS.

The reasoning for £80k, is that that’s what the starting point for the 40% rate would be, if it had risen with inflation since it was introduced by Lawson in (IIRC) 1988.

The upper rate started at £19,300 in 1988.

Using the bank of England inflation calculator that 19 grand would be £50,000 today.

Which the current higher rate tax band is.

That's inflation not wage inflation.

Alistair said:

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/matt_gillow/status/1138492573234937859

“Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?

It is millions. That's a matter of fact.

Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?

Equally it's millions less than it used to be.

In 2016/17 anyone earning over £43,000 was paying higher rate tax at 40%
in 2019/20 you need to earn £50,000 (outside of Scotland) to be paying higher rate tax - an increase from £46350 in 2018/19)..

And millions of more that it was in previous years too. But either way the statement was that millions of people pay it and millions of people do. Just shows how out of touch with reality Gallowgate is FFS.

The reasoning for £80k, is that that’s what the starting point for the 40% rate would be, if it had risen with inflation since it was introduced by Lawson in (IIRC) 1988.

The upper rate started at £19,300 in 1988.

Using the bank of England inflation calculator that 19 grand would be £50,000 today.

Which the current higher rate tax band is.

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

Sadly, I think you may be right.

Philip_Thompson said:

Mysticrose said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Sandpit said:

not_on_fire said:

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

.

.

Indeed they are - against the British.

And yet we signed the GFA...

Which does not include the backstop...

.

We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.

This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying

I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime. People who didn't want to leave blowing up dramas making out like leaving without a deal will bring on the apocalypse, ending supplies of food and medicine ... meanwhile Dublin is perfectly content to have no deal.

The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.

Stereotomy said:

isam said:

Stereotomy said:

isam said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1138496808156577794

Rory 2nd, Jezza a distance back in 3rd?

Rory really appeals to people who don't care about a politician's vision, values or policies as long as they say the word "sensible" a lot. A demographic which I think is a little overrepresented on pb and in the media class.

Yes, the people who are very impressed with him seem to be those who voted Lib Dem at the Euros. Continuity Remainers & Cameroon’s. I think I’d quite like that kind of politician to be Conservative leader as it could mean the Remain vote is split further.

Remember a lot of these same people were talking about a sensible Brexit compromise and how vital it is to avoid No Deal. Weird how few of them voted for the only party in the EU who was running on that platform, Labour.

Ultimately, "sensible centrists" are just as ideological as everyone else, but because they don't recognise that, they don't understand the necessity of defending their ideology. Instead they exist in a state of perpetual astonishment that saying "can't we all just be grown-ups about this?" isn't winning people over.

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

Sadly, I think you may be right.

Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

Sadly, I think you may be right.

nico67 said:

If the UK was the Captain of the EU project they’d love it.

It’s the fact they’re not and can’t just tell the rest what to do that’s caused the problems .

The UK only likes Unions if they get to call the shots.

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

Sadly, I think you may be right.

Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.

As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but now I think they would twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

Sadly, I think you may be right.

Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.

As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but I think they would now twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.

williamglenn said:

nico67 said:

If the UK was the Captain of the EU project they’d love it.

It’s the fact they’re not and can’t just tell the rest what to do that’s caused the problems .

The UK only likes Unions if they get to call the shots.

You mean England, which is why the break up of the UK is the best way to reconcile this. England can be a constructive partner in European integration more easily than the UK can.

nico67 said:

If the UK was the Captain of the EU project they’d love it.

It’s the fact they’re not and can’t just tell the rest what to do that’s caused the problems .

The UK only likes Unions if they get to call the shots.

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

Sadly, I think you may be right.

Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.

The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Third, like Leadsom in the betting for some god unknown reason.

I think you know the reason.

Do we?

A Leadsom supporter with more money than sense/wanting to creative a narrative.

Seems to good to be true to me.

Guido seems to agree with me, and he knows his betting.

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

Sadly, I think you may be right.

Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.

As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but I think they would now twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.

Not really.

Eurosceptic yes, but death cult no. I think we've been infantilised by the likes of Boris. I got into a row with a fellow activist who refused to acknowledge that when the UK joined the EC there was a six/seven year transition.

Always considered ourselves the pragmatic bunch.

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

Sadly, I think you may be right.

Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.

The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.

Wrong again. Moderate Euroscepticism is what most UK voters want.

In fact, by your own admission, it was what Cameron was offering with his deal.

What I mean is that people like you were on the wrong side in the referendum. You should have been campaigning for Dave’s deal as the most realistic Eurosceptic option on offer.

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

I do not think the EU was united against us ** but it was united in support of EverCloserUnion which was a policy which Britain didn't support and didn't understand.

And it was the unwillingness of British governments to understand this and their fantasies that 'Europe was coming our way' which in large part has led to the current situation.

** How much the strategy of EverCloserUnion was through opposition to 'the Anglo-Saxons' / a US dominated world I don't know.

Anyway no need for apologies or harsh words, its all a bit of fun

You are projecting your own views. In the 70s the British government was every bit as committed to ever closer union as the other members. The dialogue of the deaf only crept in much later on.

So the 1970s ie before Thatcher's time as PM.

Not to mention that the UK declined to join the ERM when it was formed in 1979:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Exchange_Rate_Mechanism#Historical_exchange-rate_regimes_for_EU_members

We were still repaying the IMF at that point.

In practice, Thatcher was the most integrationist PM since we joined. She’d never have let us become marginalised like we were after she left office.

Mysticrose said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mysticrose said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Sandpit said:

not_on_fire said:

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

.

.

Indeed they are - against the British.

And yet we signed the GFA...

Which does not include the backstop...

.

We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.

This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying

I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime. People who didn't want to leave blowing up dramas making out like leaving without a deal will bring on the apocalypse, ending supplies of food and medicine ... meanwhile Dublin is perfectly content to have no deal.

The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.

That's not quite what I meant. Laying into 'remainers' as 'cowards' is a bit ad hominem and not terribly helpful.

I do think No Deal will be extremely damaging to the economy, and could break up the union. It's not simply people being over dramatic. Almost every business leader and economist says the same.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/48465791

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/01/one-three-uk-firms-activate-plans-move-operations-abroad-no-deal-brexit-iod-survey

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/11/24/the-truth-about-a-no-deal-brexit

etc. etc.

Philip_Thompson said:

Mysticrose said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mysticrose said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Sandpit said:

not_on_fire said:

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

.

.

Indeed they are - against the British.

And yet we signed the GFA...

Which does not include the backstop...

.

We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.

This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying

I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime. People who didn't want to leave blowing up dramas making out like leaving without a deal will bring on the apocalypse, ending supplies of food and medicine ... meanwhile Dublin is perfectly content to have no deal.

The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.

That's not quite what I meant. Laying into 'remainers' as 'cowards' is a bit ad hominem and not terribly helpful.

I do think No Deal will be extremely damaging to the economy, and could break up the union. It's not simply people being over dramatic. Almost every business leader and economist says the same.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/48465791

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/01/one-three-uk-firms-activate-plans-move-operations-abroad-no-deal-brexit-iod-survey

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/11/24/the-truth-about-a-no-deal-brexit

etc. etc.

Yeah and they said the exact same bollocks before the Brexit referendum too. "Nothing has changed."

Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

Sadly, I think you may be right.

Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.

As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but I think they would now twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.

Not really.

Eurosceptic yes, but death cult no. I think we've been infantilised by the likes of Boris. I got into a row with a fellow activist who refused to acknowledge that when the UK joined the EC there was a six/seven year transition.

Always considered ourselves the pragmatic bunch.

I feel much the same way.

GIN1138 said:

Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

17th October general election here we come?

Byronic said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

Sadly, I think you may be right.

Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.

As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but I think they would now twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.

Not really.

Eurosceptic yes, but death cult no. I think we've been infantilised by the likes of Boris. I got into a row with a fellow activist who refused to acknowledge that when the UK joined the EC there was a six/seven year transition.

Always considered ourselves the pragmatic bunch.

I feel much the same way.

My father says (No Deal) Brexit is what unilateral disarmament was to Labour in the 70s and 80s.

Gets the members excited but really isn't the best for the country.

He says that as someone who voted Labour in 1983 and never did again.

Of all the times to make your only vote for Labour, 1983 is by far the weirdest to choose.

Led by Michael Foot? Against a Falklands-charged Thatcher? With an ultra-left manifesto, the longest suicide note in history??

Benpointer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mysticrose said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mysticrose said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Sandpit said:

not_on_fire said:

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

.

.

Indeed they are - against the British.

And yet we signed the GFA...

Which does not include the backstop...

.

We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.

This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying

I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime. People who didn't want to leave blowing up dramas making out like leaving without a deal will bring on the apocalypse, ending supplies of food and medicine ... meanwhile Dublin is perfectly content to have no deal.

The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.

That's not quite what I meant. Laying into 'remainers' as 'cowards' is a bit ad hominem and not terribly helpful.

I do think No Deal will be extremely damaging to the economy, and could break up the union. It's not simply people being over dramatic. Almost every business leader and economist says the same.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/48465791

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/01/one-three-uk-firms-activate-plans-move-operations-abroad-no-deal-brexit-iod-survey

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/11/24/the-truth-about-a-no-deal-brexit

etc. etc.

Yeah and they said the exact same bollocks before the Brexit referendum too. "Nothing has changed."

Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?

Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?

Philip_Thompson said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't every single one of the following said they'd rather have No Deal than compromise on the backstop?

Varadkar
Barnier
Juncker
Verhofstadt
Merkel
Macron
The European Union
Ireland
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czechia
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden

They have all said they would have no deal before they back down over the backstop haven't they?

If every single one of those would unanimously prefer No Deal than to back down over the backstop then why is it so terribly unreasonable to add just one more name to the list:
The United Kingdom

Deal or no deal leavers like myself are not acting any different to the EU in our beliefs.

Barnesian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't every single one of the following said they'd rather have No Deal than compromise on the backstop?

Varadkar
Barnier
Juncker
Verhofstadt
Merkel
Macron
The European Union
Ireland
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czechia
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden

They have all said they would have no deal before they back down over the backstop haven't they?

If every single one of those would unanimously prefer No Deal than to back down over the backstop then why is it so terribly unreasonable to add just one more name to the list:
The United Kingdom

Deal or no deal leavers like myself are not acting any different to the EU in our beliefs.

No Deal harms us much more than any other country.

It isn't a negotiating card. There seems to be a complete failure of comprehension on the part of Brexiteers. They seem to think that No Deal is equivalent to walking away from a bad deal leaving the status quo in place. It ain't.

Philip_Thompson said:

Barnesian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't every single one of the following said they'd rather have No Deal than compromise on the backstop?

Varadkar
Barnier
Juncker
Verhofstadt
Merkel
Macron
The European Union
Ireland
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czechia
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden

They have all said they would have no deal before they back down over the backstop haven't they?

If every single one of those would unanimously prefer No Deal than to back down over the backstop then why is it so terribly unreasonable to add just one more name to the list:
The United Kingdom

Deal or no deal leavers like myself are not acting any different to the EU in our beliefs.

No Deal harms us much more than any other country.

It isn't a negotiating card. There seems to be a complete failure of comprehension on the part of Brexiteers. They seem to think that No Deal is equivalent to walking away from a bad deal leaving the status quo in place. It ain't.

This is the Remainers version of BMW. "They need us more than we need them".

No deal is walking away from the status quo and starting again from our own.

Byronic said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Byronic said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

Sadly, I think you may be right.

Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.

As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but I think they would now twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.

Not really.

Eurosceptic yes, but death cult no. I think we've been infantilised by the likes of Boris. I got into a row with a fellow activist who refused to acknowledge that when the UK joined the EC there was a six/seven year transition.

Always considered ourselves the pragmatic bunch.

I feel much the same way.

My father says (No Deal) Brexit is what unilateral disarmament was to Labour in the 70s and 80s.

Gets the members excited but really isn't the best for the country.

He says that as someone who voted Labour in 1983 and never did again.

Of all the times to make your only vote for Labour, 1983 is by far the weirdest to choose.

Led by Michael Foot? Against a Falklands-charged Thatcher? With an ultra-left manifesto, the longest suicide note in history??

My father was in his 20s/a junior doctor in those days, it was mandatory to vote Labour then.

OK. Still an odd time to turn away though. Surely 1983 was THE time to think, Uh, Michael Foot? No!

Byronic said:

williamglenn said:

Byronic said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

Sadly, I think you may be right.

Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.

The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.

But you could say exactly the same, and with more venom, about the europhile "governing classes" who consistently promised and then denied the people a referendum - believing there would be no consequences: no price to be paid for their lies.

There were consequences. The consequence of their mendacity was Brexit. We are all guilty.

True, but the problem is that those ‘Europhiles’ weren’t really Europhiles, otherwise they’d have believed in the case for taking Britain to the heart of the project and in their ability to sell it. Once Blair chickened out of holding a referendum on the Euro, none of them thought it was possible.

Sure, but that doesn't exonerate them. What I'm saying - what I have belatedly realised - is that Brexit is a tragic and terrible failure of the entire British political system - left and right, europhile AND eurosceptic. The lies and cowardice of the "europhile" elite got us to the lost referendum, the lies and idiocy of the Brexiteers have taken us from there to the brink of disaster.

The rotting physical state of Pugin's Westminster Parliament is an apt metaphor. The whole British Establishment needs taking down, and rewiring.

AndyJS said:

GIN1138 said:

Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

17th October general election here we come?

Interesting if true. A very big if.

Gallowgate said:

Ultimately, any sensible, reasoned country would ensure a long transition period to prevent economic shocks. The knee-jerk reaction to leave in October 'COME WHAT MAY' is just insane.

Casino_Royale said:

Byronic said:

williamglenn said:

Byronic said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

Sadly, I think you may be right.

Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.

The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.

But you could say exactly the same, and with more venom, about the europhile "governing classes" who consistently promised and then denied the people a referendum - believing there would be no consequences: no price to be paid for their lies.

There were consequences. The consequence of their mendacity was Brexit. We are all guilty.

True, but the problem is that those ‘Europhiles’ weren’t really Europhiles, otherwise they’d have believed in the case for taking Britain to the heart of the project and in their ability to sell it. Once Blair chickened out of holding a referendum on the Euro, none of them thought it was possible.

Sure, but that doesn't exonerate them. What I'm saying - what I have belatedly realised - is that Brexit is a tragic and terrible failure of the entire British political system - left and right, europhile AND eurosceptic. The lies and cowardice of the "europhile" elite got us to the lost referendum, the lies and idiocy of the Brexiteers have taken us from there to the brink of disaster.

The rotting physical state of Pugin's Westminster Parliament is an apt metaphor. The whole British Establishment needs taking down, and rewiring.

Again, fair.

If we'd had a looser relationship baked in via the Lisbon Treaty, with a referendum as well, we'd never be here and BOO'ers (as they were then known) would have stayed a tiny minority.

williamglenn said:

Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

Byronic said:

Benpointer said:

Byronic said:

Benpointer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mysticrose said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mysticrose said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Philip_Thompson said:

viewcode said:

Sandpit said:

not_on_fire said:

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

.

.

Indeed they are - against the British.

And yet we signed the GFA...

Which does not include the backstop...

.

We have power, which is why we're not afraid to leave without a deal.

Problem is the remainers who are afraid. It isn't a lack of power that is holding us back, it is an abundance of cowardice.

This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying

I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime

The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.

That's

etc. etc.

Yeah and they said the exact same bollocks before the Brexit referendum too. "Nothing has changed."

Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?

Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?

Yes. But it is also fair to point out that 85% of Irish trade goes via the UK. If No Deal is that disastrous for Britain, then surely it would be calamitous to Ireland. Yet they happily contemplate it.

So either they are bluffing and lying, and are hoping we fold, or No Deal really isn't that bad.

I genuinely don't know the answer. Perhaps no one does? A major No Deal exit from the EU has, after all, never happened before.

Don't forget that Ireland (GDP c. $0.4tn) will be supported by the EU (GDP $20tn) to mitigate the effects of No Deal.

The UK will be supported by... er, no one else.

Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".

_Anazina_ said:

williamglenn said:

Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

It’s not just that. The rapidity into which we are moving to a cashless society means many people don’t even set eyes on cash from week to week, undermining the sentimental attachment. This will only grow. One day, the idea of having any patriotic feeling towards money you never see will seem utterly perverse.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138551562522046464