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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850
    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    This is a bit pantomime, Philip, if you don't mind me saying
    I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime. People who didn't want to leave blowing up dramas making out like leaving without a deal will bring on the apocalypse, ending supplies of food and medicine ... meanwhile Dublin is perfectly content to have no deal.

    The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176

    I do not think the EU was united against us ** but it was united in support of EverCloserUnion which was a policy which Britain didn't support and didn't understand.

    And it was the unwillingness of British governments to understand this and their fantasies that 'Europe was coming our way' which in large part has led to the current situation.

    ** How much the strategy of EverCloserUnion was through opposition to 'the Anglo-Saxons' / a US dominated world I don't know.

    Anyway no need for apologies or harsh words, its all a bit of fun :smile:
    Fair enough. I don't disagree with your assessment of how we've got here.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Alistair said:

    The upper rate started at £19,300 in 1988.

    Using the bank of England inflation calculator that 19 grand would be £50,000 today.

    Which the current higher rate tax band is.
    That's inflation not wage inflation.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,683
    rcs1000 said:

    What is the right amount of time to spend on political websites? (Asking for a friend.)
    As long as it is less time than your friend spends on porn sites then nothing to worry about.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,526

    You are projecting your own views. In the 70s the British government was every bit as committed to ever closer union as the other members. The dialogue of the deaf only crept in much later on.
    So the 1970s ie before Thatcher's time as PM.

    Not to mention that the UK declined to join the ERM when it was formed in 1979:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Exchange_Rate_Mechanism#Historical_exchange-rate_regimes_for_EU_members
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Either that, or the ultimate result of the referendum is that England and Wales will leave the EU, and Scotland and Northern Ireland will join the Euro...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,395

    That's inflation not wage inflation.
    You beat me to it. It should rise with wages, not just inflation, otherwise it is dragging in an ever greater proportion of the population.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,395

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2019
    Alistair said:

    The upper rate started at £19,300 in 1988.

    Using the bank of England inflation calculator that 19 grand would be £50,000 today.

    Which the current higher rate tax band is.
    Oops, my bad, wrong stat.

    The correct one is the proportion of people paying the higher rate, based on earnings inflation.
    https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1138001749762039809
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850

    So the 1970s ie before Thatcher's time as PM.

    Not to mention that the UK declined to join the ERM when it was formed in 1979:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Exchange_Rate_Mechanism#Historical_exchange-rate_regimes_for_EU_members
    We were still repaying the IMF at that point.

    In practice, Thatcher was the most integrationist PM since we joined. She’d never have let us become marginalised like we were after she left office.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850
    rcs1000 said:

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Just rejoice at that news! Sceptics got greedy when they should have bitten Cameron’s hand off.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,673
    So applying the principles of a well known BBC show to the Tory leadership contest.

    Snog - Rory Stewart.

    Marry - Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove, Matt Hancock, Sajid Javid, and Mark Harper.

    Avoid - Andrea Leadsom, Dominic Raab, Esther McVey, and Boris Johnson.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    I agree. This whole thing is more than a bit pantomime. People who didn't want to leave blowing up dramas making out like leaving without a deal will bring on the apocalypse, ending supplies of food and medicine ... meanwhile Dublin is perfectly content to have no deal.

    The whole thing is garbage and pantomime.
    That's not quite what I meant. Laying into 'remainers' as 'cowards' is a bit ad hominem and not terribly helpful.

    I do think No Deal will be extremely damaging to the economy, and could break up the union. It's not simply people being over dramatic. Almost every business leader and economist says the same.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/48465791

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/01/one-three-uk-firms-activate-plans-move-operations-abroad-no-deal-brexit-iod-survey

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/11/24/the-truth-about-a-no-deal-brexit

    etc. etc.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    If it is this page it lists my MP, Andrew Murruson, as backing Raab, but he has come out for Boris, so it is not perfect.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_2019_Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election
    Unfortunately I can't edit it myself because someone's put a lock on it and only certain people can edit it. They're not doing a very good job of it though.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,273

    Remember a lot of these same people were talking about a sensible Brexit compromise and how vital it is to avoid No Deal. Weird how few of them voted for the only party in the EU who was running on that platform, Labour.

    Ultimately, "sensible centrists" are just as ideological as everyone else, but because they don't recognise that, they don't understand the necessity of defending their ideology. Instead they exist in a state of perpetual astonishment that saying "can't we all just be grown-ups about this?" isn't winning people over.
    Labour was not running on any coherent platform. Labour was split between the soft Brexit and 2nd reffers. The Tory cabinet was in favour but not the ERG or Tory membership. People did not vote for those parties as they would not know what they are getting.

    I personally prefer remain but think the compromise soft brexit is a better solution for the country and would have voted for it if I felt any party represented it. On that basis I considered the Tories but not Labour.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,673
    edited June 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    How on earth is the higher rate tax band a drag on Middle Class aspiration? A couple earning 30k each are earning double the median household income. Comfortably middle class, comfortably basic rate.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Alistair said:

    The upper rate started at £19,300 in 1988.

    Using the bank of England inflation calculator that 19 grand would be £50,000 today.

    Which the current higher rate tax band is.
    Actually, you're not including the personal allowance in your calculation. In 1988-89 that was £2605 for a single person, so the 40% rate kicked in above £21,905

    Using the Bank of England inflation calculator gives a value of £57,700 for 2018, but we're in the 2019-20 tax year now, so add another 2% on top, would give a higher figure, and the earliest a new rate would be introduced would be for the 2020-21 tax year, so a further 2%, and plausibly it could be a pledge delayed for implementation in the election year of 2022, so another two years of 2% inflation, which would give you a figure of £62,456 for the 2022-23 tax year.

    Still well short of Johnson's £80,000 but closer then I would have expected.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850

    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that made this possible.
    The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,526
    edited June 2019

    Don't be sad, it'll be brilliant to see the faces and reactions of all those hardline Leavers that they made this possible.
    As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

    I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but now I think they would twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    rcs1000 said:

    Sadly, I think you may be right.
    He'd better bloody not be.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,091
    If the UK was the Captain of the EU project they’d love it.

    It’s the fact they’re not and can’t just tell the rest what to do that’s caused the problems .

    The UK only likes Unions if they get to call the shots.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    A Leadsom supporter with more money than sense/wanting to creative a narrative.
    Seems to good to be true to me.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850
    nico67 said:

    If the UK was the Captain of the EU project they’d love it.

    It’s the fact they’re not and can’t just tell the rest what to do that’s caused the problems .

    The UK only likes Unions if they get to call the shots.

    You mean England, which is why the break up of the UK is the best way to reconcile this. England can be a constructive partner in European integration more easily than the UK can.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited June 2019

    The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.
    But you could say exactly the same, and with more venom, about the europhile "governing classes" who consistently promised and then denied the people a referendum - believing there would be no consequences: no price to be paid for their lies.

    There were consequences. The consequence of their mendacity was Brexit. We are all guilty.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108

    As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

    I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but now I think they would twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.
    That guy who burst into McVey’s launch was uncannily like MF
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    You are projecting your own views. In the 70s the British government was every bit as committed to ever closer union as the other members. The dialogue of the deaf only crept in much later on.
    So are you.

    It was distant rhetoric at that stage.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,673

    As a long standing Conservative member did you have any idea that many of the party were as fanatical as the ERG have shown themselves to be ?

    I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but I think they would now twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.
    Not really.

    Eurosceptic yes, but death cult no. I think we've been infantilised by the likes of Boris. I got into a row with a fellow activist who refused to acknowledge that when the UK joined the EC there was a six/seven year transition.

    Always considered ourselves the pragmatic bunch.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688


    I once made the comment that they were the sort of people who twist on 18 but now I think they would twist on 20 with Mark Francois willing to twist on 21.
    That's a great quote!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    You mean England, which is why the break up of the UK is the best way to reconcile this. England can be a constructive partner in European integration more easily than the UK can.
    You view the break up of the UK as just punishment for the UK voting to Leave.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,673

    Seems to good to be true to me.
    Guido seems to agree with me, and he knows his betting.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nico67 said:

    If the UK was the Captain of the EU project they’d love it.

    It’s the fact they’re not and can’t just tell the rest what to do that’s caused the problems .

    The UK only likes Unions if they get to call the shots.

    Seems reasonable to me. So since we can't call the shots there's no need to be in the project.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581
    edited June 2019
    AndyJS said:
    His likely reason for doing so being shown in his preceding tweet relating to a forthcoming by-election (which the Tories might unexpectedly lose btw) he has been helping out with.
    https://twitter.com/AWMurrison/status/1137853054299062272
    It builds momentum for Boris.

    it's Bomentum.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.
    Wrong again. Moderate Euroscepticism is what most UK voters want.

    In fact, by your own admission, it was what Cameron was offering with his deal.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850
    Byronic said:

    But you could say exactly the same, and with more venom, about the europhile "governing classes" who consistently promised and then denied the people a referendum - believing there would be no consequences: no price to be paid for their lies.

    There were consequences. The consequence of their mendacity was Brexit. We are all guilty.
    True, but the problem is that those ‘Europhiles’ weren’t really Europhiles, otherwise they’d have believed in the case for taking Britain to the heart of the project and in their ability to sell it. Once Blair chickened out of holding a referendum on the Euro, none of them thought it was possible.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    Guido seems to agree with me, and he knows his betting.
    Guido gets it wrong all the time.

    If you consistently follow his tips you'll end up in the poor house.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850

    Wrong again. Moderate Euroscepticism is what most UK voters want.

    In fact, by your own admission, it was what Cameron was offering with his deal.
    What I mean is that people like you were on the wrong side in the referendum. You should have been campaigning for Dave’s deal as the most realistic Eurosceptic option on offer.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The hardliners always saw it as a binary fully in or fully out choice. It’s the smarter than thou ‘moderate’ Eurosceptics who are the most guilty of misunderstanding the stakes.
    The so-called "moderates" are the sort seeking to be half-pregnant.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    Not really.

    Eurosceptic yes, but death cult no. I think we've been infantilised by the likes of Boris. I got into a row with a fellow activist who refused to acknowledge that when the UK joined the EC there was a six/seven year transition.

    Always considered ourselves the pragmatic bunch.
    I feel much the same way.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918

    Guido seems to agree with me, and he knows his betting.
    Maybe it's Boris Johnson, trying to get her into the last two.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    What I mean is that people like you were on the wrong side in the referendum. You should have been campaigning for Dave’s deal as the most realistic Eurosceptic option on offer.
    That was May's Deal, which I've consistently argued for.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581
    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D

    May was going to win a landslide too. I know I know, Boris has charisma, but the Borisgraph might want to temper their expectations.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,526

    We were still repaying the IMF at that point.

    In practice, Thatcher was the most integrationist PM since we joined. She’d never have let us become marginalised like we were after she left office.
    Thatcher would have been willing to bring the EU to a stop to get what she wanted which might have led the EU to take a somewhat different course.

    Rather than the posture, surrender and pretend which we had instead.

    Although Thatcher steadily became disenchanted with the EU and I can't see her approving the political dimension once the Cold War had ended.

    I do think the Soviet threat is forgotten about in regard to the early decades of the EU - its easier to be supportive of the political dimension when Western Europe needs to unite against the threat of invasion.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Silly comments like that diminish him? The man is a silly comment. It's his thing.
    Ahem. This terrifying lack of self-awareness from the very guy who posted - and still believes - that Jo Cox’s murder was a false flag. Catch yourself fucking on.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    That's not quite what I meant. Laying into 'remainers' as 'cowards' is a bit ad hominem and not terribly helpful.

    I do think No Deal will be extremely damaging to the economy, and could break up the union. It's not simply people being over dramatic. Almost every business leader and economist says the same.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/48465791

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/01/one-three-uk-firms-activate-plans-move-operations-abroad-no-deal-brexit-iod-survey

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/11/24/the-truth-about-a-no-deal-brexit

    etc. etc.
    Yeah and they said the exact same bollocks before the Brexit referendum too. "Nothing has changed."

    Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    True, but the problem is that those ‘Europhiles’ weren’t really Europhiles, otherwise they’d have believed in the case for taking Britain to the heart of the project and in their ability to sell it. Once Blair chickened out of holding a referendum on the Euro, none of them thought it was possible.
    Sure, but that doesn't exonerate them. What I'm saying - what I have belatedly realised - is that Brexit is a tragic and terrible failure of the entire British political system - left and right, europhile AND eurosceptic. The lies and cowardice of the "europhile" elite got us to the lost referendum, the lies and idiocy of the Brexiteers have taken us from there to the brink of disaster.

    The rotting physical state of Pugin's Westminster Parliament is an apt metaphor. The whole British Establishment needs taking down, and rewiring.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    Yeah and they said the exact same bollocks before the Brexit referendum too. "Nothing has changed."

    Meanwhile in the real world Varadkar shows that no deal is nothing to be afraid of and he is perfectly content to get no deal if he doesn't get a perfect deal. So what's the real problem? Or is he bluffing?
    Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176

    Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?
    This.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,673

    I feel much the same way.
    My father says (No Deal) Brexit is what unilateral disarmament was to Labour in the 70s and 80s.

    Gets the members excited but really isn't the best for the country.

    He says that as someone who voted Labour in 1983 and never did again.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,526

    Not really.

    Eurosceptic yes, but death cult no. I think we've been infantilised by the likes of Boris. I got into a row with a fellow activist who refused to acknowledge that when the UK joined the EC there was a six/seven year transition.

    Always considered ourselves the pragmatic bunch.
    I think that people who are trying to make a little money from political gambling need to take a rational view of the cost and benefits, risks and rewards, and that rational mindset then influences our political views.

    With PBers being a varied bunch we also don't get the feedback loops of echo chambers.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited June 2019

    My father says (No Deal) Brexit is what unilateral disarmament was to Labour in the 70s and 80s.

    Gets the members excited but really isn't the best for the country.

    He says that as someone who voted Labour in 1983 and never did again.
    Of all the times to make your last vote for Labour, 1983 is by far the weirdest to choose.

    Led by Michael Foot? Against a Falklands-charged Thatcher? With an ultra-left manifesto, the longest suicide note in history??
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited June 2019
    Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't every single one of the following said they'd rather have No Deal than compromise on the backstop?

    Varadkar
    Barnier
    Juncker
    Verhofstadt
    Merkel
    Macron
    The European Union
    Ireland
    Austria
    Belgium
    Bulgaria
    Croatia
    Cyprus
    Czechia
    Denmark
    Estonia
    Finland
    France
    Germany
    Greece
    Hungary
    Italy
    Latvia
    Lithuania
    Luxembourg
    Malta
    Netherlands
    Poland
    Portugal
    Romania
    Slovakia
    Slovenia
    Spain
    Sweden

    They have all said they would have no deal before they back down over the backstop haven't they?

    If every single one of those would unanimously prefer No Deal than to back down over the backstop then why is it so terribly unreasonable to add just one more name to the list:
    The United Kingdom

    Deal or no deal leavers like myself are not acting any different to the EU in our beliefs.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D

    "Up to" is a telling phrase.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    I think that people who are trying to make a little money from political gambling need to take a rational view of the cost and benefits, risks and rewards, and that rational mindset then influences our political views.

    With PBers being a varied bunch we also don't get the feedback loops of echo chambers.
    Nor do we get the feedback loops of echo chambers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,673
    Byronic said:

    Of all the times to make your only vote for Labour, 1983 is by far the weirdest to choose.

    Led by Michael Foot? Against a Falklands-charged Thatcher? With an ultra-left manifesto, the longest suicide note in history??
    My father was in his 20s/a junior doctor in those days, it was mandatory to vote Labour then.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    Byronic said:

    Sure, but that doesn't exonerate them. What I'm saying - what I have belatedly realised - is that Brexit is a tragic and terrible failure of the entire British political system - left and right, europhile AND eurosceptic. The lies and cowardice of the "europhile" elite got us to the lost referendum, the lies and idiocy of the Brexiteers have taken us from there to the brink of disaster.

    The rotting physical state of Pugin's Westminster Parliament is an apt metaphor. The whole British Establishment needs taking down, and rewiring.
    Again, fair.

    If we'd had a looser relationship baked in via the Lisbon Treaty, with a referendum as well, we'd never be here and BOO'ers (as they were then known) would have stayed a tiny minority.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?
    That's not that important. It was supposed to be the border that was the big deal apparently.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    edited June 2019

    Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't every single one of the following said they'd rather have No Deal than compromise on the backstop?

    Varadkar
    Barnier
    Juncker
    Verhofstadt
    Merkel
    Macron
    The European Union
    Ireland
    Austria
    Belgium
    Bulgaria
    Croatia
    Cyprus
    Czechia
    Denmark
    Estonia
    Finland
    France
    Germany
    Greece
    Hungary
    Italy
    Latvia
    Lithuania
    Luxembourg
    Malta
    Netherlands
    Poland
    Portugal
    Romania
    Slovakia
    Slovenia
    Spain
    Sweden

    They have all said they would have no deal before they back down over the backstop haven't they?

    If every single one of those would unanimously prefer No Deal than to back down over the backstop then why is it so terribly unreasonable to add just one more name to the list:
    The United Kingdom

    Deal or no deal leavers like myself are not acting any different to the EU in our beliefs.

    Because as @Benpointer said, they will still be in the EU in a 'no deal' scenario. How are you not seeing the difference?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Maybe you're overlooking the fact that in the event of No Deal, Ireland would still in fact be inside the EU?
    Yes. But it is also fair to point out that 85% of Irish trade goes via the UK. If No Deal is that disastrous for Britain, then surely it would be calamitous to Ireland. Yet they happily contemplate it.

    So either they are bluffing and lying, and are hoping we fold, or No Deal really isn't that bad.

    I genuinely don't know the answer. Perhaps no one does? A major No Deal exit from the EU has, after all, never happened before.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D

    Interesting if true. A very big if.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079

    Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't every single one of the following said they'd rather have No Deal than compromise on the backstop?

    Varadkar
    Barnier
    Juncker
    Verhofstadt
    Merkel
    Macron
    The European Union
    Ireland
    Austria
    Belgium
    Bulgaria
    Croatia
    Cyprus
    Czechia
    Denmark
    Estonia
    Finland
    France
    Germany
    Greece
    Hungary
    Italy
    Latvia
    Lithuania
    Luxembourg
    Malta
    Netherlands
    Poland
    Portugal
    Romania
    Slovakia
    Slovenia
    Spain
    Sweden

    They have all said they would have no deal before they back down over the backstop haven't they?

    If every single one of those would unanimously prefer No Deal than to back down over the backstop then why is it so terribly unreasonable to add just one more name to the list:
    The United Kingdom

    Deal or no deal leavers like myself are not acting any different to the EU in our beliefs.

    No Deal harms us much more than any other country.

    It isn't a negotiating card. There seems to be a complete failure of comprehension on the part of Brexiteers. They seem to think that No Deal is equivalent to walking away from a bad deal leaving the status quo in place. It ain't.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    That's not that important. It was supposed to be the border that was the big deal apparently.
    Good grief!

    The chaotic switching off of seamless trade between the UK and our biggest trading partner, the EU, is 'not important'?!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I must say I do like Rory Stewart - but he seems far too decent a human being to be a Tory.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    My father was in his 20s/a junior doctor in those days, it was mandatory to vote Labour then.
    OK. Still an odd time to turn away though. Surely 1983 was THE time to think, Uh, Michael Foot? No!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Barnesian said:

    No Deal harms us much more than any other country.

    It isn't a negotiating card. There seems to be a complete failure of comprehension on the part of Brexiteers. They seem to think that No Deal is equivalent to walking away from a bad deal leaving the status quo in place. It ain't.
    This is the Remainers version of BMW. "They need us more than we need them".

    No deal is walking away from the status quo and starting again from our own.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,673
    justin124 said:

    I must say I do like Rory Stewart - but he seems far too decent a human being to be a Tory.

    Says the man who calls people trollops and bastards.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176

    This is the Remainers version of BMW. "They need us more than we need them".

    No deal is walking away from the status quo and starting again from our own.
    At what cost?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,256
    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D

    Wow, that is nearly as big as Theresas majority in 2017, as predicted!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,673
    Byronic said:

    OK. Still an odd time to turn away though. Surely 1983 was THE time to think, Uh, Michael Foot? No!
    I think it was more contrarian, my father is of the view that humongous majorities are a bad thing.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Because as @Benpointer said, they will still be in the EU in a 'no deal' scenario. How are you not seeing the difference?
    They'd still be in the EU in a 'deal but no backstop' scenario too. But that is apparently unthinkable.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Byronic said:

    Sure, but that doesn't exonerate them. What I'm saying - what I have belatedly realised - is that Brexit is a tragic and terrible failure of the entire British political system - left and right, europhile AND eurosceptic. The lies and cowardice of the "europhile" elite got us to the lost referendum, the lies and idiocy of the Brexiteers have taken us from there to the brink of disaster.

    The rotting physical state of Pugin's Westminster Parliament is an apt metaphor. The whole British Establishment needs taking down, and rewiring.
    That's exactly what Corbyn and McDonnell intend doing. Be careful what you wish for.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,673
    Foxy said:

    Wow, that is nearly as big as Theresas majority in 2017, as predicted!
    At the start of the 2017 campaign a Tory majority of 294 was predicted by the Tory internal polling.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,091
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting if true. A very big if.
    Did they ask what his polling might be if he forced through a no deal and it was a disaster.

    The DT fawning over Bozo is quite embarrassing now.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176

    They'd still be in the EU in a 'deal but no backstop' scenario too. But that is apparently unthinkable.
    It's not unthinkable, it's just not what they want. They have made one of their red lines the upholding the Good Friday Agreement. God forbid.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Nor do we get the feedback loops of echo chambers.
    I have to say, coming on this site - and hearing views from Corbynite left to UKIPPY right - makes me feel 500% better informed. Perhaps over-informed.

    It actually embarrasses me when I sit down with intelligent friends, of Left or Right, and they trot out their latest political theories, and I know they are talking complete nads. Precisely because I come to this website. Where I hear all opinions, AND I get the hard data.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited June 2019
    Byronic said:

    Yes. But it is also fair to point out that 85% of Irish trade goes via the UK. If No Deal is that disastrous for Britain, then surely it would be calamitous to Ireland. Yet they happily contemplate it.

    So either they are bluffing and lying, and are hoping we fold, or No Deal really isn't that bad.

    I genuinely don't know the answer. Perhaps no one does? A major No Deal exit from the EU has, after all, never happened before.
    Don't forget that Ireland (GDP c. $0.4tn) will be supported by the EU (GDP $20tn) to mitigate the effects of No Deal.

    The UK will be supported by... er, no one else.


  • Ultimately, any sensible, reasoned country would ensure a long transition period to prevent economic shocks. The knee-jerk reaction to leave in October 'COME WHAT MAY' is just insane.

    It flows from Remainers' determination to foil Brexit or failing that to reverse it. The sooner the Brexit, the sooner the fear of never leaving is extinguished. The harder the Brexit, the more comprehensive the bridge burning.

  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D

    Rory the new best thing since sliced bread would get the Torys 51seats.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Don't forget that Ireland (GDP c. $0.4tn) will be supported by the EU (GDP $20tn) to mitigate the effects of No Deal.

    The UK will be supported by... er, no one else.
    Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850

    Again, fair.

    If we'd had a looser relationship baked in via the Lisbon Treaty, with a referendum as well, we'd never be here and BOO'ers (as they were then known) would have stayed a tiny minority.
    I think it’s a mistake to assume that the stable status quo would be a loose relationship. A loose relationship encourages sceptics to think we should be out altogether, which encourages the kind of dysfunctional politics that led us to the 2016 referendum.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    It flows from Remainers' determination to foil Brexit or failing that to reverse it. The sooner the Brexit, the sooner the fear of never leaving is extinguished. The harder the Brexit, the more comprehensive the bridge burning.

    Here we go...

    The consequences of a chaotic No Deal exit will all be the fault of Remainers. Welcome to the post-truth world.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Anyway, every day that passes brings my prediction from 2016 closer: the ultimate result of the referendum will be that we join the Euro.

    It’s not just that. The rapidity into which we are moving to a cashless society means many people don’t even set eyes on cash from week to week, undermining the sentimental attachment. This will only grow. One day, the idea of having any patriotic feeling towards money you never see will seem utterly perverse.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited June 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    Telegraph reporting a ComRes poll suggesting Boris could win a landslide of "up to" 140 seats" if he becomes PM

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-faces-remainer-plot-thwart-no-deal-brexit-day/

    17th October general election here we come? :D

    I suspect there is little chance of a GE, if Boris did worse than May in seats his stint as PM would be down the toilet. Besides given the local elections, the european elections and the poor fundraising activities of the Tories i suspect even with an average honeymoon the next GE is more likley next spring than this autumn.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The fun upside if Boris does win is that his honeymoon period has a best before date of 31st October .

    May wasn’t despised for nearly 2 years.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Scott_P said:
    I think this poll seals it for Boris (though I would like to see the question and methodology). The Tories are gonna roll the dice, faced with data like this. Buckle up.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,256
    Byronic said:

    Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".
    The Greeks are rather pro-EU. They know that it was their own politicians that fucked up.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Byronic said:

    Ask the Greeks how they feel about EU "mitigation" and "support".
    And ironically it was the UK that gave Ireland no strings attached support during the financial crisis above and beyond the EU 'more strings than a series of thunderbirds' did.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,395

    It flows from Remainers' determination to foil Brexit or failing that to reverse it. The sooner the Brexit, the sooner the fear of never leaving is extinguished. The harder the Brexit, the more comprehensive the bridge burning.

    This is an interesting question. I think a lot of Leavers want to make sure we leave as absolutely as possible, because that minimises the risk of the UK staying.

    My view is different. I suspect that a chaotic No Deal, one which exposed the existing flaws in the UK economy, and led to a painful recession, would probably put us in the worst of all positions.

    If you think of the UK as being made up of three roughly equal sized groups:

    - get us as far from the EU as possible
    - the democratic mandate should be carried out, but I don't care that much, and I would prefer to minimise disruption
    - the UK should be part of the EU

    A chaotic and unpleasant No Deal Brexit would alienate the second of these groups. No Deal would be blamed for all the bad things that happened in the UK, and the risk is that the second group would find itself seduced by the third.

    The only way to get a sustainable Brexit is to make sure as many people are on board as possible at every step. Since long before the vote, I said Brexit should be seen as a process. Right now, the Conservative Party is forgetting that, which will be bad for the UK, and bad for the sustainability of the Brexit settlement.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:
    Seems a tad optimitic for Rory Stewart . . .
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    _Anazina_ said:

    It’s not just that. The rapidity into which we are moving to a cashless society means many people don’t even set eyes on cash from week to week, undermining the sentimental attachment. This will only grow. One day, the idea of having any patriotic feeling towards money you never see will seem utterly perverse.
    Hopefully, one day the idea of having any patriotic feeling at all will fade. :smile:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,673
    Looking at that graphic, a Tory majority of 140 on a vote share of 33%?

    Seems heroic if you ask me.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited June 2019
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    On those figures Let’s have a Rory win :)
This discussion has been closed.